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000
FXUS61 KBOX 270205
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE WARM MOIST SECTOR AS WARM FRONT
IS WELL NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST. WE HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE SO PWATS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL. LOW CONFIDENCE IF ANY SHOWER WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
WE DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT LACK THE TRIGGER
MECHANISM.

TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO DROP THIS EVENING WITH MANY SITES STILL
IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. VSBYS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING
ACROSS ACK AND MVY...BUT FEEL THAT STRATUS MAY BE THE BIGGEST
ISSUE OVERNIGHT. WILL WAIT AND SEE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO
DETERMINE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270205
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE WARM MOIST SECTOR AS WARM FRONT
IS WELL NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST. WE HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE SO PWATS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL. LOW CONFIDENCE IF ANY SHOWER WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
WE DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT LACK THE TRIGGER
MECHANISM.

TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO DROP THIS EVENING WITH MANY SITES STILL
IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. VSBYS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING
ACROSS ACK AND MVY...BUT FEEL THAT STRATUS MAY BE THE BIGGEST
ISSUE OVERNIGHT. WILL WAIT AND SEE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO
DETERMINE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270205
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE WARM MOIST SECTOR AS WARM FRONT
IS WELL NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST. WE HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE SO PWATS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL. LOW CONFIDENCE IF ANY SHOWER WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
WE DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT LACK THE TRIGGER
MECHANISM.

TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO DROP THIS EVENING WITH MANY SITES STILL
IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. VSBYS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING
ACROSS ACK AND MVY...BUT FEEL THAT STRATUS MAY BE THE BIGGEST
ISSUE OVERNIGHT. WILL WAIT AND SEE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO
DETERMINE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270205
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE WARM MOIST SECTOR AS WARM FRONT
IS WELL NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE WEST. WE HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO TAP INTO THE GULF MOISTURE SO PWATS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL. LOW CONFIDENCE IF ANY SHOWER WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
WE DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT LACK THE TRIGGER
MECHANISM.

TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO DROP THIS EVENING WITH MANY SITES STILL
IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. VSBYS ARE SLOWLY DROPPING
ACROSS ACK AND MVY...BUT FEEL THAT STRATUS MAY BE THE BIGGEST
ISSUE OVERNIGHT. WILL WAIT AND SEE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO
DETERMINE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 270132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS FA. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL A PT-MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 270132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS FA. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL A PT-MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN A RATHER WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KBOX 262351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
751 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
AS TEMPS REACHED THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS W MA/N CENTRAL CT THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME CONVECTION HELD ON AS IT MOVED E OUT OF THE
CENTRAL HUDSON VALLEY INTO W CENTRAL MA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ONE CELL ACROSS CENTRAL BERKSHIRE COUNTY PRODUCED SOME C/G
LIGHTNING AND HAD A PRETTY GOOD CORE THAT MAY HAVE DROPPED A
LITTLE BIT OF SMALL HAIL. STILL NOTING SOME BRIEF C/G LIGHTNING IN
EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY WITH A CELL THERE AT AROUND 2330Z. THESE
CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH SUNSET AND DISSIPATE BY
02Z-03Z.

BEYOND THIS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE S COAST
AND PUSH INLAND ON THE S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.




TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 262351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
751 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
AS TEMPS REACHED THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS W MA/N CENTRAL CT THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME CONVECTION HELD ON AS IT MOVED E OUT OF THE
CENTRAL HUDSON VALLEY INTO W CENTRAL MA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ONE CELL ACROSS CENTRAL BERKSHIRE COUNTY PRODUCED SOME C/G
LIGHTNING AND HAD A PRETTY GOOD CORE THAT MAY HAVE DROPPED A
LITTLE BIT OF SMALL HAIL. STILL NOTING SOME BRIEF C/G LIGHTNING IN
EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY WITH A CELL THERE AT AROUND 2330Z. THESE
CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH SUNSET AND DISSIPATE BY
02Z-03Z.

BEYOND THIS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE S COAST
AND PUSH INLAND ON THE S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.




TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
751 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
AS TEMPS REACHED THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS W MA/N CENTRAL CT THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME CONVECTION HELD ON AS IT MOVED E OUT OF THE
CENTRAL HUDSON VALLEY INTO W CENTRAL MA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ONE CELL ACROSS CENTRAL BERKSHIRE COUNTY PRODUCED SOME C/G
LIGHTNING AND HAD A PRETTY GOOD CORE THAT MAY HAVE DROPPED A
LITTLE BIT OF SMALL HAIL. STILL NOTING SOME BRIEF C/G LIGHTNING IN
EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY WITH A CELL THERE AT AROUND 2330Z. THESE
CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH SUNSET AND DISSIPATE BY
02Z-03Z.

BEYOND THIS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE S COAST
AND PUSH INLAND ON THE S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.




TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 262351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
751 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
AS TEMPS REACHED THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS W MA/N CENTRAL CT THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME CONVECTION HELD ON AS IT MOVED E OUT OF THE
CENTRAL HUDSON VALLEY INTO W CENTRAL MA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ONE CELL ACROSS CENTRAL BERKSHIRE COUNTY PRODUCED SOME C/G
LIGHTNING AND HAD A PRETTY GOOD CORE THAT MAY HAVE DROPPED A
LITTLE BIT OF SMALL HAIL. STILL NOTING SOME BRIEF C/G LIGHTNING IN
EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY WITH A CELL THERE AT AROUND 2330Z. THESE
CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH SUNSET AND DISSIPATE BY
02Z-03Z.

BEYOND THIS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE S COAST
AND PUSH INLAND ON THE S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.




TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING TO MVFR-IFR
IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD
SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...ESP FOR
KPOU AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE AT KPOU AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW HAVE PLACED -SHRA IN TAFS AFT 18Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY
5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 262231
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
     SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 262231
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
     SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL/WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KBOX 262130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
530 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT...MERRIMACK AND PIONEER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
CLOUD COVER HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED TO THIN CIRRUS WHICH HAS ALLOWED
THE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB JUST IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

IN ADDITION...DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED
MAINLY OVER NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA.  AS THESE TRAVEL
EASTWARD INTO MASSACHUSETTS THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY
AND AREAL COVERAGE.

WHILE I EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THEY DO...EXPECT
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS
AT MOST.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 262130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
530 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT...MERRIMACK AND PIONEER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
CLOUD COVER HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED TO THIN CIRRUS WHICH HAS ALLOWED
THE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB JUST IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

IN ADDITION...DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED
MAINLY OVER NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA.  AS THESE TRAVEL
EASTWARD INTO MASSACHUSETTS THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY
AND AREAL COVERAGE.

WHILE I EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THEY DO...EXPECT
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS
AT MOST.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
530 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT...MERRIMACK AND PIONEER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
CLOUD COVER HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED TO THIN CIRRUS WHICH HAS ALLOWED
THE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB JUST IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

IN ADDITION...DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED
MAINLY OVER NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA.  AS THESE TRAVEL
EASTWARD INTO MASSACHUSETTS THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY
AND AREAL COVERAGE.

WHILE I EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THEY DO...EXPECT
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS
AT MOST.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

TO START OFF...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING ALONG OR
JUST E OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE FRONT THAT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE REGION WASHES OUT DURING FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH RE-
ESTABLISHES FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER FRONT WORKS SE OUT
OF QUEBEC. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO WORK SLOWLY SE AS THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND UPPER TROUGHING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STREAM. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OFF THE S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OR WILL IT STALL CLOSER TO OR
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...
THOUGH DID LEAN TOWARD MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLES FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR THE
LATTER TIMEFRAME...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF AND ECENS
MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...WILL SEE LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THU MORNING WITH PWATS ON ORDER OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE FRONT
SHIFTS S TAKING THE HIGHER PWAT AIR WITH IT...SO EXPECT THE PRECIP
TO TEND TO WEAKEN THOUGH WILL LINGER WHERE MILDER TEMPS ARE THANKS
TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
SO EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDDAY. BEST SHOT
FOR PRECIP WILL BE FROM THE MERRIMACK VALLEY SE ACROSS CENTRAL MA TO
THE MID AND LOWER CT VALLEY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW QUICK DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS. WILL SEE AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...DEVELOP ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...MODELS STARTED TO SIGNAL DRIER AIR WORKING IN ON MONDAY...
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC SO EXPECT A DRY BUT MILD DAY. DEWPTS DROP A BIT...DOWN TO THE
50S...BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. WILL SEE A LIGHT E-SE
WIND FLOW SO WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S EXCEPT 65-70 ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...RANGING TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SO SW
WINDS KICK IN AGAIN BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE HUMID AIR. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT START TO APPROACH OUT OF GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN QUEBEC.
ALSO NOTING INCREASING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
WITH K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TQ VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS SO COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LAST
INTO SAT NIGHT. BEST LIFT MOVES CLOSER DURING LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT SO
WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. A PWAT SWATH OF 1.6 TO
1.75 INCHES PUSHES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY SATURDAY...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT THE LOWER-MID 70S ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
REACHES THE S COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
BUT A BIT BETTER FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT SCT PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR THE
S COAST OR OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT...KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH JUST OFFSHORE BUT
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. MAY
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN INSTABILITY WORKS OFFSHORE BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY
AS FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER...THEN MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN BACK NE AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. WILL SEE SCT -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING
ALONG S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING TO MVFR-IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS TSTMS LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END
SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE
WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE OUTER WATERS E OF CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THU NIGHT. VSBYS REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...OTHERWISE EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SEAS BUILD
AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262014
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT...MERRIMACK AND PIONEER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
CLOUD COVER HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED TO THIN CIRRUS WHICH HAS ALLOWED
THE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB JUST IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

IN ADDITION...DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED
MAINLY OVER NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA.  AS THESE TRAVEL
EASTWARD INTO MASSACHUSETTS THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY
AND AREAL COVERAGE.

WHILE I EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THEY DO...EXPECT
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS
AT MOST.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO
BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF PRECIP.  FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM
THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.
EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  THAT WARM...MOIST AIR
FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND
MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE.  EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN
IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING
WILL BE.  THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE
OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO
5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE WATERS
TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 261957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO
NORTHERN PA. MUCH WEAKER REFLECTIVITIES EXIST ACROSS THE I90
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 261957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO
NORTHERN PA. MUCH WEAKER REFLECTIVITIES EXIST ACROSS THE I90
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 261957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO
NORTHERN PA. MUCH WEAKER REFLECTIVITIES EXIST ACROSS THE I90
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 261957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. MORE
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO
NORTHERN PA. MUCH WEAKER REFLECTIVITIES EXIST ACROSS THE I90
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A MID LEVEL THETA-E BOUNDARY AND
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
TRANSVERSING THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH YET THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASING
EMBEDDED WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO
WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A PT-
MOCLOUDY SKY AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF OUR REGION WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS CLIMBING IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...SOME
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOR
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING
BUOYANCY AS SBCAPES CLIMB TOWARD 2K J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS ON THE INCREASE. A DEPARTING UPPER JET WITH ENTRANCE
REGION DYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING TO AROUND 30KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL RECEIVE AS THE NCEP MODEL SUITE DOES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH...MODELS DO TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE. SO WE WILL ADD SOME ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER ON THE MET MOS THAN THE MAV MOS...WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FRONTAL AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
MAIN UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO APPROACH SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN
FACT...TRENDS IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THESE
FEATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF THE H850 THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY WITH LESS THAN 10C FOR THE DACKS. WE
WILL THEREFORE KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65-70F FOR THESE AREAS
AND KEEP 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES AS
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20KTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RISING SURFACE
PRESSURES AND A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND
A MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT AS LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRI-SAT SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-TUE...AS THE EAST COAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS IT DEAMPLIFIES...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE SAT OR EARLY SUN. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN COULD LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR SUN INTO EARLY
MON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

SO...INITIALLY EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...SO DESPITE MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN BELOW 90. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WARM...WITH
MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SAT-MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SAT...AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH AND EAST SAT NT INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL INDICATE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING
DOWNWARD FROM NW TO SE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE FRONT REACHES...AND WHETHER A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS INTO MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE RATHER WARM SAT...WITH TEMPS REACHING 85-90 IN VALLEYS AND
LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S...SO APPARENT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS OF 85-90. SAT NT/SUN AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S...THEN EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS FOR SUN INTO
MON...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN...AND MAINLY 60S
FOR MON. SUN NT/MON AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MON NT-TUE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MON
NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH TUE
MAX TEMPS REACHING 70-75 FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261802
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
202 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID 60S ON THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...INCREASED WIND GUSTS BASED ON MARINE OBSERVATIONS.
THIS RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON BLOCK
ISLAND SOUND AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY SO HAVE
EXPANDED THE SCA ACCORDINGLY.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261802
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
202 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID 60S ON THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND
STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...INCREASED WIND GUSTS BASED ON MARINE OBSERVATIONS.
THIS RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON BLOCK
ISLAND SOUND AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY SO HAVE
EXPANDED THE SCA ACCORDINGLY.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 261721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR SHOW A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EVOLVING FROM PORTIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90 AND
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND INTO WESTERN
PA. PER THE HRRR...THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I90. LATEST SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND LOCAL LAPS
ANALYSIS SUGGEST SBCAPES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1K J/KG. H2O VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN YET COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO FOR THIS UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS OF
THE TEMPS AND SKY COVERAGE ALONG WITH ALIGNMENTS OF POPS/WX PER
LATEST TRENDS AND REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNING/S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 261721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR SHOW A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EVOLVING FROM PORTIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90 AND
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND INTO WESTERN
PA. PER THE HRRR...THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I90. LATEST SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND LOCAL LAPS
ANALYSIS SUGGEST SBCAPES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1K J/KG. H2O VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN YET COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO FOR THIS UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS OF
THE TEMPS AND SKY COVERAGE ALONG WITH ALIGNMENTS OF POPS/WX PER
LATEST TRENDS AND REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNING/S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 261721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR SHOW A SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION EVOLVING FROM PORTIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90 AND
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND INTO WESTERN
PA. PER THE HRRR...THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I90. LATEST SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND LOCAL LAPS
ANALYSIS SUGGEST SBCAPES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1K J/KG. H2O VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER LAKE ERIE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN YET COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO FOR THIS UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS OF
THE TEMPS AND SKY COVERAGE ALONG WITH ALIGNMENTS OF POPS/WX PER
LATEST TRENDS AND REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNING/S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ESP FOR KPOU/KALB AND KPSF.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z-22Z/TUE...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL
ROUGHLY 01Z-03Z/WED. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KALB/KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AFTER SUNSET...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR OR BORDERLINE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSF.

ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 16Z/WED...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-22 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT MAINLY 5-10 KT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KT
ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261406
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID 60S ON THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...INCREASED WIND GUSTS BASED ON MARINE OBSERVATIONS.
THIS RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON BLOCK
ISLAND SOUND AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY SO HAVE
EXPANDED THE SCA ACCORDINGLY.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261406
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID 60S ON THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...INCREASED WIND GUSTS BASED ON MARINE OBSERVATIONS.
THIS RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON BLOCK
ISLAND SOUND AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY SO HAVE
EXPANDED THE SCA ACCORDINGLY.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261406
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR
UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MID 60S ON THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...INCREASED WIND GUSTS BASED ON MARINE OBSERVATIONS.
THIS RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON BLOCK
ISLAND SOUND AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY SO HAVE
EXPANDED THE SCA ACCORDINGLY.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 261353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
953 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT...CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM W TO E
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH...AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE ONLY OCCASIONAL BREAKS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH NOONTIME.

SO...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90...WHILE
CLOUDS PERSIST FURTHER SOUTH. THEN...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...ESP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND POSSIBLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
CAPITAL REGION AFTER 3 PM. MORNING UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
BUF/PBZ AND ILN ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...WITH RATHER WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...SHOULD WE GET A PERIOD OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S...THEN INSTABILITY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY GREATER AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESP GIVEN PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.25-1.50
INCHES.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...DESPITE A SOMEWHAT SLOW RISE DUE TO THE MORNING
CLOUDS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING/S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOME
POP UP ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FOR THE PM.  SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS
AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

THE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY GET WET...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM.
THE BEST CHC FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA. FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 261353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
953 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT...CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM W TO E
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH...AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE ONLY OCCASIONAL BREAKS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH NOONTIME.

SO...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90...WHILE
CLOUDS PERSIST FURTHER SOUTH. THEN...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...ESP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND POSSIBLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
CAPITAL REGION AFTER 3 PM. MORNING UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
BUF/PBZ AND ILN ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...WITH RATHER WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...SHOULD WE GET A PERIOD OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S...THEN INSTABILITY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY GREATER AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESP GIVEN PWAT/S APPROACHING 1.25-1.50
INCHES.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...DESPITE A SOMEWHAT SLOW RISE DUE TO THE MORNING
CLOUDS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING/S SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOME
POP UP ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FOR THE PM.  SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS
AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

THE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY GET WET...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM.
THE BEST CHC FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA. FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261139
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO BRING NEAR-TERM CONDITIONS BACK IN LINE
WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261139
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO BRING NEAR-TERM CONDITIONS BACK IN LINE
WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261139
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO BRING NEAR-TERM CONDITIONS BACK IN LINE
WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261139
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO BRING NEAR-TERM CONDITIONS BACK IN LINE
WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 261055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WEER MADE THIS MORNING.

THE REGION IS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HOLDING
STEADY. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MESOSCALE HRRR INDICATE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOME
POP UP ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FOR THE PM.  SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS
AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

THE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY GET WET...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM.
THE BEST CHC FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA. FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 261055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WEER MADE THIS MORNING.

THE REGION IS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HOLDING
STEADY. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MESOSCALE HRRR INDICATE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOME
POP UP ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FOR THE PM.  SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS
AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

THE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY GET WET...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM.
THE BEST CHC FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA. FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 261055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY. ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WEER MADE THIS MORNING.

THE REGION IS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HOLDING
STEADY. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MESOSCALE HRRR INDICATE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW. SOME
POP UP ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS FOR THE PM.  SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS
AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

THE SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY GET WET...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO FORM.
THE BEST CHC FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS IN
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA. FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 260923
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
523 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REGION IS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HOLDING
STEADY. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MESOSCALE HRRR INDICATE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE REGION
WE WILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SO STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER DOES NOTE THAT IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THEN AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED. CONTINUE TO HAVE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES LOWER WEDNESDAY
THAN THURSDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONVECTION...MID
70S TO MID 80S.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHEARING OUT WITH TIME. ALONG
WITH TROUGH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND BOUNDARY
SHIFTS THROUGH BUT DECREASE IN TIME AS THE FEATURES WEAKEN. IT
WILL NOT BE AS HOT OR HUMID THURSDAY HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HIGHS LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAIL FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO KGFL SO
A VCSH GROUP WAS USED.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE THIS MORNING WITH
MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS FOR THE PM.
SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE
PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE
USED.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 GROUPS IN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 260902
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
502 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REGION IS IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HOLDING
STEADY. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MESOSCALE HRRR INDICATE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN MONDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIGHT-REAR
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN CANADA. ACROSS THE REGION WILL HAVE HIGH DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MORE TO COME...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING
IN OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF/CAN GGEM HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS DAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND NJ COAST FOR SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHC THREAT WAS KEPT IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE FCST
AREA WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. H850 TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE +13C TO +15C RANGE WITH MEAN UPPER RIDING
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60-65F RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND M50S TO 60F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SAT-SUN...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BROAD
SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP THE HUMID AIR MASS AROUND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF IT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.  THE
LATEST GFS HAS SFC DEWPTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-
2000 J/KG.  PWATS INCREASE BACK TO 1.33-1.75 INCHES OVER THE FCST
AREA.  SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION.  WE
EXPECT THE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID AND U80S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S IN THE
MTNS.  MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE REGION.  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND NOW.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO L70S OVER THE FCST AREA.

SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON WHERE
THE FRONT GOES TO START NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE FCST AREA WITH A 1032 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM SRN
QUEBEC.  COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL.  THE WPC GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE SFC RIDGE
WINNING OUT...AND THE FRONT STALLING NEAR DC AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  THE GFS HAS A SOAKER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
BTWN THE WAVE AND SFC HIGH.  OVERALL...WE KEPT A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WENT LOW CHC SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAWARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.L REGION ON MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS FCST WOULD NEED FINE TUNING IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN A WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TODAY INTO TOMORROW.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAIL FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO KGFL SO
A VCSH GROUP WAS USED.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE THIS MORNING WITH
MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS FOR THE PM.
SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE
PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE
USED.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 GROUPS IN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH MINIMUMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS IN THE 50S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE
DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.

WARM AND HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INT0 THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED SO STORMS
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260851
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
451 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
STEADY OVERNIGHT...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
CAPE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260851
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
451 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
STEADY OVERNIGHT...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
CAPE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260851
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
451 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
STEADY OVERNIGHT...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
CAPE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260851
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
451 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
STEADY OVERNIGHT...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...
SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND
LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT
LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5
INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP
ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE
MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER
AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
CAPE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT...
MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS
REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI
NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
STEADY OVERNIGHT...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
CAPE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.


THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...DUNTEN/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
STEADY OVERNIGHT...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
CAPE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.


THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...DUNTEN/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
STEADY OVERNIGHT...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
CAPE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.


THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...DUNTEN/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NH AND MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED
STEADY OVERNIGHT...IN THE MID 60S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING.

TODAY...

BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. DESCENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STREAM THE STABLE MARITIME
AIR ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MASS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS KEEPING TEMPS INTO THE 70S.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS IS TURNED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN
WARM AND HEIGHTS DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY....LIMITING POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY...YET WE STILL
COULD SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BELIEVE LOCATIONS WEST TO
THE REGION WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MAY SEE JUST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS. BEST LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND THE
ISLAND AS 60F DEWPOINTS STREAM OVER THE COOLER OCEAN. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG BUT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HELD
OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION ACROSS NEW YORK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WEAKEN STATE OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BUT SPLIT ON WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. THE NAM SAYS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST WHILE THE GFS/EC SHOWS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS THE MASS PIKE. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY KEPT SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

TOMORROW...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE 70S
WHILE THE INTERIOR WARMS INTO THE MID 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY
EASTWARD. FEEL WEDNESDAY HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA. ASIDE FROM THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25 KTS OF SHEAR. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES
COMBINED WITH A DESCENT SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS BUT BELIEVE HEAVY
RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOG WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BY THE EVENING
HOURS LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
CAPE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE EXPANDED THE SCA FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
GUSTS WILL REACH 25KTS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.


THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...DUNTEN/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260623
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
223 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

230 AM UPDATE...

WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH PUSHING THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAIN. STILL COULD SEE A SPOT SHOWER ALONG THE
BORDER BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IS NORTH. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT MOST OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST IS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

OTHERWISE HUMIDITY IS ON THE INCREASE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S
AND SHOULD INCREASE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT. A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 25KTS STILL ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
CAPE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260623
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
223 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

230 AM UPDATE...

WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH PUSHING THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAIN. STILL COULD SEE A SPOT SHOWER ALONG THE
BORDER BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IS NORTH. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT MOST OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST IS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

OTHERWISE HUMIDITY IS ON THE INCREASE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S
AND SHOULD INCREASE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT. A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 25KTS STILL ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. SOUTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
CAPE OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS
CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE
PASSING SHOWER/TSTORM OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS
RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP
TO MVFR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 260559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED MAINLY
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES
OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BRING ABOUT THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BATCHES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH BEFORE SUNRISE SO HAVE POPS LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
NOW HAVE LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC.  MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A
WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY
INTO TOMORROW.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAIL FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO KGFL SO
A VCSH GROUP WAS USED.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE THIS MORNING WITH
MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS FOR THE PM.
SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE
PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE
USED.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 GROUPS IN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 260559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED MAINLY
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES
OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BRING ABOUT THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BATCHES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH BEFORE SUNRISE SO HAVE POPS LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
NOW HAVE LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC.  MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A
WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY
INTO TOMORROW.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAIL FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO KGFL SO
A VCSH GROUP WAS USED.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE THIS MORNING WITH
MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS FOR THE PM.
SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE
PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE
USED.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 GROUPS IN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 260559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED MAINLY
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES
OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BRING ABOUT THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BATCHES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH BEFORE SUNRISE SO HAVE POPS LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
NOW HAVE LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC.  MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A
WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY
INTO TOMORROW.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAIL FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO KGFL SO
A VCSH GROUP WAS USED.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE THIS MORNING WITH
MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS FOR THE PM.
SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE
PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE
USED.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 GROUPS IN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 260559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED MAINLY
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES
OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BRING ABOUT THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BATCHES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH BEFORE SUNRISE SO HAVE POPS LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
NOW HAVE LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC.  MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A
WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY
INTO TOMORROW.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAIL FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO KGFL SO
A VCSH GROUP WAS USED.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE THIS MORNING WITH
MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS FOR THE PM.
SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE
PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE
USED.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 GROUPS IN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 260559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED MAINLY
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES
OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BRING ABOUT THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BATCHES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH BEFORE SUNRISE SO HAVE POPS LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
NOW HAVE LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC.  MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A
WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY
INTO TOMORROW.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAIL FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO KGFL SO
A VCSH GROUP WAS USED.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN LATE THIS MORNING WITH
MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS FOR THE PM.
SOME POP-UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY THE MID TO LATE
PM IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.  VCSH GROUPS AND CIGS BKN050-060 WERE
USED.

CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE PROB30 GROUPS IN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.  THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
S TO SW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 260235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES...ASSOCIATED
WITH A STALL BOUNDARY AND A SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS ONTARIO. THE
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SHORT WAVE
WILL PASS ON BUY TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ONE MIGHT
FOLLOW LATER MONDAY.

AT 900 PM...ALBANY REPORTED 82 DEGREES WHICH WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST
SPOTS NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO! BY 10 PM...THE AIRPORT COOLED TO
79...STILL PLENTY MILD WITH A SOUTH BREEZE.

RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID HUDSON SEVERAL DEGREES...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WE LEFT THEM
ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 70 IN THE TRI-CITIES...UPPER 60S REMAINDER OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. FURTHER AWAY AND
NORTH...LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
DACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE RAIN COOLER AIR.


A SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 10 MPH RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 260235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES...ASSOCIATED
WITH A STALL BOUNDARY AND A SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS ONTARIO. THE
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SHORT WAVE
WILL PASS ON BUY TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ONE MIGHT
FOLLOW LATER MONDAY.

AT 900 PM...ALBANY REPORTED 82 DEGREES WHICH WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST
SPOTS NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO! BY 10 PM...THE AIRPORT COOLED TO
79...STILL PLENTY MILD WITH A SOUTH BREEZE.

RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID HUDSON SEVERAL DEGREES...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WE LEFT THEM
ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 70 IN THE TRI-CITIES...UPPER 60S REMAINDER OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. FURTHER AWAY AND
NORTH...LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
DACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE RAIN COOLER AIR.


A SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 10 MPH RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 260235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES...ASSOCIATED
WITH A STALL BOUNDARY AND A SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS ONTARIO. THE
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SHORT WAVE
WILL PASS ON BUY TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ONE MIGHT
FOLLOW LATER MONDAY.

AT 900 PM...ALBANY REPORTED 82 DEGREES WHICH WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST
SPOTS NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO! BY 10 PM...THE AIRPORT COOLED TO
79...STILL PLENTY MILD WITH A SOUTH BREEZE.

RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID HUDSON SEVERAL DEGREES...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WE LEFT THEM
ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 70 IN THE TRI-CITIES...UPPER 60S REMAINDER OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. FURTHER AWAY AND
NORTH...LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
DACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE RAIN COOLER AIR.


A SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 10 MPH RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 260235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES...ASSOCIATED
WITH A STALL BOUNDARY AND A SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS ONTARIO. THE
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SHORT WAVE
WILL PASS ON BUY TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ONE MIGHT
FOLLOW LATER MONDAY.

AT 900 PM...ALBANY REPORTED 82 DEGREES WHICH WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST
SPOTS NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO! BY 10 PM...THE AIRPORT COOLED TO
79...STILL PLENTY MILD WITH A SOUTH BREEZE.

RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID HUDSON SEVERAL DEGREES...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WE LEFT THEM
ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 70 IN THE TRI-CITIES...UPPER 60S REMAINDER OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. FURTHER AWAY AND
NORTH...LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
DACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE RAIN COOLER AIR.


A SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 10 MPH RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 260235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES...ASSOCIATED
WITH A STALL BOUNDARY AND A SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS ONTARIO. THE
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SHORT WAVE
WILL PASS ON BUY TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ONE MIGHT
FOLLOW LATER MONDAY.

AT 900 PM...ALBANY REPORTED 82 DEGREES WHICH WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST
SPOTS NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO! BY 10 PM...THE AIRPORT COOLED TO
79...STILL PLENTY MILD WITH A SOUTH BREEZE.

RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID HUDSON SEVERAL DEGREES...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WE LEFT THEM
ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 70 IN THE TRI-CITIES...UPPER 60S REMAINDER OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. FURTHER AWAY AND
NORTH...LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
DACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE RAIN COOLER AIR.


A SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 10 MPH RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 260235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES...ASSOCIATED
WITH A STALL BOUNDARY AND A SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS ONTARIO. THE
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SHORT WAVE
WILL PASS ON BUY TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ONE MIGHT
FOLLOW LATER MONDAY.

AT 900 PM...ALBANY REPORTED 82 DEGREES WHICH WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST
SPOTS NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO! BY 10 PM...THE AIRPORT COOLED TO
79...STILL PLENTY MILD WITH A SOUTH BREEZE.

RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID HUDSON SEVERAL DEGREES...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WE LEFT THEM
ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 70 IN THE TRI-CITIES...UPPER 60S REMAINDER OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. FURTHER AWAY AND
NORTH...LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
DACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE RAIN COOLER AIR.


A SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 10 MPH RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER A FEW
ECHOES ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT IS STILL LINGERINGNEAR
THE REGION. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS STILL PRETTY HIGH SO EXPECT
JUST CLOUDS/OR VIRGA. COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS ESSEX AND
MIDDLESEX COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROPPING
OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER AS DEWPTS INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 40-45 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST. NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO
TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED
NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER A FEW
ECHOES ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT IS STILL LINGERINGNEAR
THE REGION. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS STILL PRETTY HIGH SO EXPECT
JUST CLOUDS/OR VIRGA. COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS ESSEX AND
MIDDLESEX COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROPPING
OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER AS DEWPTS INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 40-45 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST. NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO
TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED
NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 260003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 800 PM EDT...SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS AREAS
WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THAT IS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR FROM COOLER AIR IS NEAR. SHOWERS LINE UP
ALL OUT TO SOUTHWEST NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED BUT THE
HRRR/RAPP AND NAM KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION.

A RIDGE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH ONE
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO.
THIS SHORT WAVE HAS HELPED TOUCH OFF CONVECTION OFF LAKE ONTARIO BUT
THESE LOOK TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA AS WELL.

MEANWHILE QUITE A WARM EVENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL 80 OR HIGHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
HUDSON VALLEY...MID TO UPPER 70S FURTHER NORTH AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THESE VALUES WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A LITTLE KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
OUT OF POPS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS NORTH. THE MSAS INDICATED ONLY LOW INSTABILITY (DUE TO ONLY
MODERATE HUMIDITY). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO LIGHTNING STRIKES SO
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER THIS EVENING.

WITH CLOUDS AND SOME INCREASING IN DEWPOINTS...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK
ON THE MARK SO LEFT THEM ALONE. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED...UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 260003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 800 PM EDT...SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS AREAS
WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THAT IS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR FROM COOLER AIR IS NEAR. SHOWERS LINE UP
ALL OUT TO SOUTHWEST NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED BUT THE
HRRR/RAPP AND NAM KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION.

A RIDGE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH ONE
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO.
THIS SHORT WAVE HAS HELPED TOUCH OFF CONVECTION OFF LAKE ONTARIO BUT
THESE LOOK TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA AS WELL.

MEANWHILE QUITE A WARM EVENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL 80 OR HIGHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
HUDSON VALLEY...MID TO UPPER 70S FURTHER NORTH AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THESE VALUES WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A LITTLE KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
OUT OF POPS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS NORTH. THE MSAS INDICATED ONLY LOW INSTABILITY (DUE TO ONLY
MODERATE HUMIDITY). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO LIGHTNING STRIKES SO
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER THIS EVENING.

WITH CLOUDS AND SOME INCREASING IN DEWPOINTS...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK
ON THE MARK SO LEFT THEM ALONE. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED...UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
730 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

720 PM UPDATE...
NOTING AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING E-SE OUT OF NY STATE
WHILE ANOTHER AREA MOVES ACROSS ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W
MA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
ON THE S END OF AN AREA MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND N VT/NH.
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THE SMALL SHOWERS LOOK
TO DISSIPATE...BUT COULD SEE A FEW MORE TRY TO SNEAK INTO N MA
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE WITH THE WARM FRONT.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER AS DEWPTS INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 40-45 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST. NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO
TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED
NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
730 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

720 PM UPDATE...
NOTING AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING E-SE OUT OF NY STATE
WHILE ANOTHER AREA MOVES ACROSS ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W
MA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
ON THE S END OF AN AREA MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND N VT/NH.
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THE SMALL SHOWERS LOOK
TO DISSIPATE...BUT COULD SEE A FEW MORE TRY TO SNEAK INTO N MA
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE WITH THE WARM FRONT.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER AS DEWPTS INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 40-45 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST. NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO
TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED
NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
730 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

720 PM UPDATE...
NOTING AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING E-SE OUT OF NY STATE
WHILE ANOTHER AREA MOVES ACROSS ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W
MA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
ON THE S END OF AN AREA MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND N VT/NH.
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THE SMALL SHOWERS LOOK
TO DISSIPATE...BUT COULD SEE A FEW MORE TRY TO SNEAK INTO N MA
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE WITH THE WARM FRONT.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER AS DEWPTS INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 40-45 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST. NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO
TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED
NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
730 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

720 PM UPDATE...
NOTING AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING E-SE OUT OF NY STATE
WHILE ANOTHER AREA MOVES ACROSS ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W
MA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
ON THE S END OF AN AREA MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND N VT/NH.
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THE SMALL SHOWERS LOOK
TO DISSIPATE...BUT COULD SEE A FEW MORE TRY TO SNEAK INTO N MA
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE WITH THE WARM FRONT.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER AS DEWPTS INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 40-45 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST. NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO
TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED
NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
730 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

720 PM UPDATE...
NOTING AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING E-SE OUT OF NY STATE
WHILE ANOTHER AREA MOVES ACROSS ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W
MA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
ON THE S END OF AN AREA MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND N VT/NH.
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THE SMALL SHOWERS LOOK
TO DISSIPATE...BUT COULD SEE A FEW MORE TRY TO SNEAK INTO N MA
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE WITH THE WARM FRONT.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER AS DEWPTS INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 40-45 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST. NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO
TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED
NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
730 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

720 PM UPDATE...
NOTING AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHIFTING E-SE OUT OF NY STATE
WHILE ANOTHER AREA MOVES ACROSS ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W
MA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
ON THE S END OF AN AREA MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND N VT/NH.
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THE SMALL SHOWERS LOOK
TO DISSIPATE...BUT COULD SEE A FEW MORE TRY TO SNEAK INTO N MA
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE WITH THE WARM FRONT.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER AS DEWPTS INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE 40-45 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST. NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO
TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED
NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
500 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
LINGER AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.  THE
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY IN NEW YORK AND WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTH OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS. SCT SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE N-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS MAY GUST
TO 25 KT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL BE UP TO 40 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO TERMINALS...BUT IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE
OF.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED
NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
500 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
LINGER AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.  THE
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY IN NEW YORK AND WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTH OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
OVERALL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE
SUMMER WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO THIS
WEEKEND AT LEAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THEN DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO TRY AND
PUSH S OUT OF QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THESE FRONTS
MOVING INTO A NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER FLOW...WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN
AND WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
TO THE EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME WHEN BEST SHOT FOR DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NE OUT OF
THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE THE RECORD FLOODING RAINS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TIMING ISSUES COME INTO PLAY
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH AND WHETHER IT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OR SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE REGION.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS
WHICH WERE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE WEEKEND FRONT INTO THE REGION AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE LONG WAVE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGING SHIFTS E DURING WED WITH SW WIND FLOW AT
SURFACE AND ALOFT IN PLACE. WILL SEE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE TOWARD THE REGION. GOOD INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MODEL CAPES RISING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /NAM
IS HIGHER/...K INDICES RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 30S AND LI/S
FALLING BELOW ZERO. LOWEST PARAMETERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ALSO NOTING INCREASING PWATS...UP TO 1.8 TO 1.9
INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING...WITH HIGHEST FROM NE...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASS INTO N CENTRAL CT WHERE BEST SHOT FOR ANY STRONG OR
EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR. SPC HAS MARGINAL SHOT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S...WITH A
COUPLE OF SPOTS APPROACHING 90 WELL INLAND.

MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS...DEVELOP DURING WED NIGHT AS DEWPTS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.

THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED BUT STILL DECENT SO COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES
BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY
CONVECTION. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ALSO NOTING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH DOES NOT
HELP IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM NE MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS INTO N CENTRAL CT WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND
TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH UPPER LEVEL
BLOCKING PATTERNS TRYING TO BREAK DOWN. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
S COAST ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR
WORK INTO N MA DURING MON AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THIS TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS. SCT SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE N-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS MAY GUST
TO 25 KT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL BE UP TO 40 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO TERMINALS...BUT IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE
OF.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY
ACROSS RI/SE MA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WED
NIGHT WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY SEE PATCHY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
OCEAN CLOUDS/DENSE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD
END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFTS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT.
REDUCED VSBYS AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING
AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU THEN
SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE
OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...RLG/EVT



000
FXUS61 KALY 251955
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL
PASSAGES WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED MAINLY EAST-
WEST...ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION
AND NORTHERN BERKS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS EASTERN NY WAS
NEARLY NULL IN ACTIVITY...WITH UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGESTING AN
UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HRRRX
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENTS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY IMPACTING LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT...NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD YET PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH THE
PASSAGE AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN COMPARED TO THE MESOSCALE MODELS.
GIVEN THE EXPANDING SOUTHEAST COAST UPPER RIDGE BUILDING...PREFER
THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE AS SEEN IN THE LATEST RAP13
GUIDANCE. WHILE ITS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHAT IF ANY TRIGGERS
THAT MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER/TWO...WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT FOR THE HEART OF THE CWFA.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER WITH MAINLY 60S
EXPECTED...UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDESOF AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO AT KGFL DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THERE DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 251955
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL
PASSAGES WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED MAINLY EAST-
WEST...ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION
AND NORTHERN BERKS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS EASTERN NY WAS
NEARLY NULL IN ACTIVITY...WITH UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGESTING AN
UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HRRRX
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENTS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY IMPACTING LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT...NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD YET PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH THE
PASSAGE AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN COMPARED TO THE MESOSCALE MODELS.
GIVEN THE EXPANDING SOUTHEAST COAST UPPER RIDGE BUILDING...PREFER
THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE AS SEEN IN THE LATEST RAP13
GUIDANCE. WHILE ITS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHAT IF ANY TRIGGERS
THAT MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER/TWO...WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT FOR THE HEART OF THE CWFA.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER WITH MAINLY 60S
EXPECTED...UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDESOF AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO AT KGFL DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THERE DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251936
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
336 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS START TO BUILD IN ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
LINGER AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.  THE
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY IN NEW YORK AND WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTH OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT WHICH IN TURN
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE ENERGY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS REMAINS FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...A REAL SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.  EXPECT WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CAPE ANN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA.  SO KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THERE.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...SHIFTING TO THE EAST.  THIS
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NYS COULD MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS WARM AND MUGGY.  IT/LL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
 - THREAT OF MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S COAST
 - SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
 - THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
 - POTENTIAL LULL IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY
 - ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SW-CONVERGENT FLOW AND RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO SLINK SE TOWARDS
SNE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE. INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PA / UPSTATE NY BY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXES PRESSING E WITH THE WSW STEERING FLOW
INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY SOME SEVERE
TO THE W. OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN FOR HERE. PER BUFKIT CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR LINGERS. H925-85 SW-FLOW IS
DIVERGENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY PUSHES E INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BUT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS IT DOES SO. SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LINGERING
INTO THE FOLLOWING MORNING. WITH ANTICIPATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE... WARM /
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH S-FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N...THOUGH MID-
TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS MAY LIMIT HEATING. MARINE STRATUS / FOG
LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR S/SE-
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A STOUT WARM-DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

THURSDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT: MAIN DRIVING FORCE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AND ATTENDANT JET-STREAK LIFTS NE RESULTING IN A COOL FRONT PUSHING
SE OUT OF CANADA TO BECOME DIFFUSE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IN
ADDITION TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER LEFT-OVER FROM WEDNESDAY PUTS INTO
QUESTION OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER MAY NOT DESTABILIZE...MID-LEVEL COOLING LENDING TO INCREASED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE SUGGESTION OF PERHAPS SOME MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING /IN ADDITION TO THE CONSENSUS OF DECENT THETA-E
AND INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SNE/ YIELDS CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. DECENT SHEAR SO A SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE BUT
HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1.5-INCHES WITH FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT. CONTINUING
WITH A WARM-MUGGY THEME WITH RESPECT TO CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MARINE
STRATUS / FOG BEING AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT: DISCREPANCIES AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE. WHILE
THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS PRIME FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
NOT A LOT OF FORCING APPARENT. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
INFLUENTIAL AS RIDGING ENHANCES ALOFT EVER SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
WEEKEND DISTURBANCE. BIGGEST DISCREPANCY CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY TO WHICH GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST CAN DESTABILIZE.
WILL KEEP WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIOD.

WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: AGREED UPON THAT ENERGY DIVING S ROUND
THE N CANADIAN VORTEX MEETS UP WITH ENERGY OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNCLEAR AS
TO ITS EVOLUTION...WHETHER IT STALLS. FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMES COMPLICATED. OF CERTAINTY IS THAT A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
TO EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BENEATH DEEP-LAYER FORCING.
THIS SHOULD YIELD LIKELY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BUT WITH
TIMING AND LONGEVITY UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS. SCT SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE N-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS MAY GUST
TO 25 KT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL BE UP TO 40 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO TERMINALS...BUT IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE
OF.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY SW-FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY TO W...MOST EVERYWHERE THURSDAY...CONCLUDING EARLY
FRIDAY. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR INCREASING SEAS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY ONLY REACH CRITERIA
BRIEFLY...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH SWELL AND WIND-WAVE MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED
LENDING TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE INTO THE 50S TOWARDS
THE END OF TODAY. SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
EXPECTED...UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. FORECASTED MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL BE JUST ABOVE 30-PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...45 TO 55 PERCENT
ON THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/ISLANDS.

WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY...THERE IS A DECREASED FIRE WEATHER
RISK SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE
RISING KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 251743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE LARGELY COME TO AN END OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTION BEING A COUPLE OF SPOT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS. AGAIN...NOT MUCH...IF ANY PRECIP IS
ACTUALLY HITTING THE GROUND. OVERALL...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO THE SKY COVER AND WINDS. IN
TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR HITTING
THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THE TIME DIURNAL HEATING IS OVER.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND S/SW WINDS INCREASING
TO 30-35 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE S-COAST. BUFKIT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND
GUSTS TO 20-28 MPH OVER LAND AREAS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF 5 PM.
THE WIND GUSTS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DUE TO A PRONOUNCED INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL HELP INCREASE
DEWPOINTS TO THE UPPER 50S AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40
KNOTS AT 925 MB WILL BE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE AIR SHOULD
BE DECOUPLED ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG WIND GUSTS AT THE GROUND.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
COD/ISLANDS. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER. AGAIN...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

TUESDAY...S NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST
AIR FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING MAY THIN ALLOWING SUNSHINE FOR A TIME. IT WILL BE BREEZY
AND VERY WARM. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE 60S...IT WILL
NOT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPERATURES TO ZOOM INTO THE 80S...MAXING OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S ESPECIALLY IN THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK
VALLEYS...BUT STILL UPPER 60S AND 70S AT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/
ISLANDS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA TO POP SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
WE HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY IN THOSE AREAS...BUT
REMAINING DRY IN EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
 - THREAT OF MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S COAST
 - SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
 - THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
 - POTENTIAL LULL IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY
 - ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SW-CONVERGENT FLOW AND RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO SLINK SE TOWARDS
SNE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE. INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PA / UPSTATE NY BY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXES PRESSING E WITH THE WSW STEERING FLOW
INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY SOME SEVERE
TO THE W. OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN FOR HERE. PER BUFKIT CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR LINGERS. H925-85 SW-FLOW IS
DIVERGENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY PUSHES E INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BUT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS IT DOES SO. SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LINGERING
INTO THE FOLLOWING MORNING. WITH ANTICIPATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE... WARM /
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH S-FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N...THOUGH MID-
TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS MAY LIMIT HEATING. MARINE STRATUS / FOG
LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR S/SE-
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A STOUT WARM-DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

THURSDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT: MAIN DRIVING FORCE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AND ATTENDANT JET-STREAK LIFTS NE RESULTING IN A COOL FRONT PUSHING
SE OUT OF CANADA TO BECOME DIFFUSE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IN
ADDITION TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER LEFT-OVER FROM WEDNESDAY PUTS INTO
QUESTION OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER MAY NOT DESTABILIZE...MID-LEVEL COOLING LENDING TO INCREASED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE SUGGESTION OF PERHAPS SOME MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING /IN ADDITION TO THE CONSENSUS OF DECENT THETA-E
AND INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SNE/ YIELDS CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. DECENT SHEAR SO A SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE BUT
HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1.5-INCHES WITH FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT. CONTINUING
WITH A WARM-MUGGY THEME WITH RESPECT TO CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MARINE
STRATUS / FOG BEING AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT: DISCREPANCIES AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE. WHILE
THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS PRIME FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
NOT A LOT OF FORCING APPARENT. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
INFLUENTIAL AS RIDGING ENHANCES ALOFT EVER SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
WEEKEND DISTURBANCE. BIGGEST DISCREPANCY CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY TO WHICH GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST CAN DESTABILIZE.
WILL KEEP WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIOD.

WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: AGREED UPON THAT ENERGY DIVING S ROUND
THE N CANADIAN VORTEX MEETS UP WITH ENERGY OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNCLEAR AS
TO ITS EVOLUTION...WHETHER IT STALLS. FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMES COMPLICATED. OF CERTAINTY IS THAT A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
TO EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BENEATH DEEP-LAYER FORCING.
THIS SHOULD YIELD LIKELY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BUT WITH
TIMING AND LONGEVITY UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS. SCT SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE N-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS MAY GUST
TO 25 KT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL BE UP TO 40 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO TERMINALS...BUT IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE
OF.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY SW-FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY TO W...MOST EVERYWHERE THURSDAY...CONCLUDING EARLY
FRIDAY. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SW WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT. EXPECTING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT DOWN TO
THE SEA SURFACE. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
EVENING AND THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
TUE.

TUESDAY...GUSTY SW WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUES OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. HAVE INCLUDED NANTUCKET SOUND IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR TUE AS WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT THERE AS WELL.
A FEW FOG PATCHES WITH RESTRICTED VISIBILITY POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH SWELL AND WIND-WAVE MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED
LENDING TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE INTO THE 50S TOWARDS
THE END OF TODAY. SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
EXPECTED...UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. FORECASTED MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL BE JUST ABOVE 30-PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...45 TO 55 PERCENT
ON THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/ISLANDS.

WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY...THERE IS A DECREASED FIRE WEATHER
RISK SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE
RISING KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...RLG/GAF
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 251743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE LARGELY COME TO AN END OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTION BEING A COUPLE OF SPOT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS. AGAIN...NOT MUCH...IF ANY PRECIP IS
ACTUALLY HITTING THE GROUND. OVERALL...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO THE SKY COVER AND WINDS. IN
TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR HITTING
THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THE TIME DIURNAL HEATING IS OVER.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND S/SW WINDS INCREASING
TO 30-35 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE S-COAST. BUFKIT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND
GUSTS TO 20-28 MPH OVER LAND AREAS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF 5 PM.
THE WIND GUSTS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DUE TO A PRONOUNCED INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL HELP INCREASE
DEWPOINTS TO THE UPPER 50S AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40
KNOTS AT 925 MB WILL BE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE AIR SHOULD
BE DECOUPLED ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG WIND GUSTS AT THE GROUND.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
COD/ISLANDS. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER. AGAIN...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

TUESDAY...S NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST
AIR FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING MAY THIN ALLOWING SUNSHINE FOR A TIME. IT WILL BE BREEZY
AND VERY WARM. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE 60S...IT WILL
NOT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPERATURES TO ZOOM INTO THE 80S...MAXING OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S ESPECIALLY IN THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK
VALLEYS...BUT STILL UPPER 60S AND 70S AT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/
ISLANDS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA TO POP SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
WE HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY IN THOSE AREAS...BUT
REMAINING DRY IN EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
 - THREAT OF MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S COAST
 - SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
 - THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
 - POTENTIAL LULL IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY
 - ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SW-CONVERGENT FLOW AND RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO SLINK SE TOWARDS
SNE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE. INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PA / UPSTATE NY BY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXES PRESSING E WITH THE WSW STEERING FLOW
INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY SOME SEVERE
TO THE W. OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN FOR HERE. PER BUFKIT CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR LINGERS. H925-85 SW-FLOW IS
DIVERGENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY PUSHES E INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BUT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS IT DOES SO. SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LINGERING
INTO THE FOLLOWING MORNING. WITH ANTICIPATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE... WARM /
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH S-FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N...THOUGH MID-
TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS MAY LIMIT HEATING. MARINE STRATUS / FOG
LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR S/SE-
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A STOUT WARM-DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

THURSDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT: MAIN DRIVING FORCE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AND ATTENDANT JET-STREAK LIFTS NE RESULTING IN A COOL FRONT PUSHING
SE OUT OF CANADA TO BECOME DIFFUSE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IN
ADDITION TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER LEFT-OVER FROM WEDNESDAY PUTS INTO
QUESTION OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER MAY NOT DESTABILIZE...MID-LEVEL COOLING LENDING TO INCREASED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE SUGGESTION OF PERHAPS SOME MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING /IN ADDITION TO THE CONSENSUS OF DECENT THETA-E
AND INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SNE/ YIELDS CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. DECENT SHEAR SO A SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE BUT
HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1.5-INCHES WITH FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT. CONTINUING
WITH A WARM-MUGGY THEME WITH RESPECT TO CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MARINE
STRATUS / FOG BEING AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT: DISCREPANCIES AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE. WHILE
THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS PRIME FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
NOT A LOT OF FORCING APPARENT. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
INFLUENTIAL AS RIDGING ENHANCES ALOFT EVER SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
WEEKEND DISTURBANCE. BIGGEST DISCREPANCY CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY TO WHICH GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST CAN DESTABILIZE.
WILL KEEP WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIOD.

WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: AGREED UPON THAT ENERGY DIVING S ROUND
THE N CANADIAN VORTEX MEETS UP WITH ENERGY OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNCLEAR AS
TO ITS EVOLUTION...WHETHER IT STALLS. FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMES COMPLICATED. OF CERTAINTY IS THAT A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
TO EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BENEATH DEEP-LAYER FORCING.
THIS SHOULD YIELD LIKELY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BUT WITH
TIMING AND LONGEVITY UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS. SCT SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE N-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS MAY GUST
TO 25 KT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL BE UP TO 40 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO TERMINALS...BUT IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE
OF.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY SW-FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY TO W...MOST EVERYWHERE THURSDAY...CONCLUDING EARLY
FRIDAY. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SW WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT. EXPECTING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT DOWN TO
THE SEA SURFACE. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
EVENING AND THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
TUE.

TUESDAY...GUSTY SW WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUES OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. HAVE INCLUDED NANTUCKET SOUND IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR TUE AS WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT THERE AS WELL.
A FEW FOG PATCHES WITH RESTRICTED VISIBILITY POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH SWELL AND WIND-WAVE MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED
LENDING TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE INTO THE 50S TOWARDS
THE END OF TODAY. SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
EXPECTED...UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. FORECASTED MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL BE JUST ABOVE 30-PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...45 TO 55 PERCENT
ON THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/ISLANDS.

WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY...THERE IS A DECREASED FIRE WEATHER
RISK SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE
RISING KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...RLG/GAF
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251743
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
143 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE LARGELY COME TO AN END OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTION BEING A COUPLE OF SPOT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS. AGAIN...NOT MUCH...IF ANY PRECIP IS
ACTUALLY HITTING THE GROUND. OVERALL...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO THE SKY COVER AND WINDS. IN
TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR HITTING
THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THE TIME DIURNAL HEATING IS OVER.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND S/SW WINDS INCREASING
TO 30-35 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE S-COAST. BUFKIT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND
GUSTS TO 20-28 MPH OVER LAND AREAS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF 5 PM.
THE WIND GUSTS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DUE TO A PRONOUNCED INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL HELP INCREASE
DEWPOINTS TO THE UPPER 50S AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40
KNOTS AT 925 MB WILL BE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE AIR SHOULD
BE DECOUPLED ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG WIND GUSTS AT THE GROUND.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
COD/ISLANDS. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER. AGAIN...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

TUESDAY...S NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST
AIR FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING MAY THIN ALLOWING SUNSHINE FOR A TIME. IT WILL BE BREEZY
AND VERY WARM. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE 60S...IT WILL
NOT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPERATURES TO ZOOM INTO THE 80S...MAXING OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S ESPECIALLY IN THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK
VALLEYS...BUT STILL UPPER 60S AND 70S AT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/
ISLANDS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA TO POP SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
WE HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY IN THOSE AREAS...BUT
REMAINING DRY IN EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
 - THREAT OF MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S COAST
 - SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
 - THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
 - POTENTIAL LULL IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY
 - ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SW-CONVERGENT FLOW AND RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO SLINK SE TOWARDS
SNE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE. INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PA / UPSTATE NY BY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXES PRESSING E WITH THE WSW STEERING FLOW
INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY SOME SEVERE
TO THE W. OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN FOR HERE. PER BUFKIT CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR LINGERS. H925-85 SW-FLOW IS
DIVERGENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY PUSHES E INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BUT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS IT DOES SO. SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LINGERING
INTO THE FOLLOWING MORNING. WITH ANTICIPATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE... WARM /
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH S-FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N...THOUGH MID-
TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS MAY LIMIT HEATING. MARINE STRATUS / FOG
LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR S/SE-
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A STOUT WARM-DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

THURSDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT: MAIN DRIVING FORCE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AND ATTENDANT JET-STREAK LIFTS NE RESULTING IN A COOL FRONT PUSHING
SE OUT OF CANADA TO BECOME DIFFUSE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IN
ADDITION TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER LEFT-OVER FROM WEDNESDAY PUTS INTO
QUESTION OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER MAY NOT DESTABILIZE...MID-LEVEL COOLING LENDING TO INCREASED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE SUGGESTION OF PERHAPS SOME MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING /IN ADDITION TO THE CONSENSUS OF DECENT THETA-E
AND INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SNE/ YIELDS CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. DECENT SHEAR SO A SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE BUT
HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1.5-INCHES WITH FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT. CONTINUING
WITH A WARM-MUGGY THEME WITH RESPECT TO CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MARINE
STRATUS / FOG BEING AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT: DISCREPANCIES AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE. WHILE
THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS PRIME FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
NOT A LOT OF FORCING APPARENT. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
INFLUENTIAL AS RIDGING ENHANCES ALOFT EVER SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
WEEKEND DISTURBANCE. BIGGEST DISCREPANCY CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY TO WHICH GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST CAN DESTABILIZE.
WILL KEEP WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIOD.

WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: AGREED UPON THAT ENERGY DIVING S ROUND
THE N CANADIAN VORTEX MEETS UP WITH ENERGY OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNCLEAR AS
TO ITS EVOLUTION...WHETHER IT STALLS. FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMES COMPLICATED. OF CERTAINTY IS THAT A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
TO EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BENEATH DEEP-LAYER FORCING.
THIS SHOULD YIELD LIKELY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BUT WITH
TIMING AND LONGEVITY UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS. SCT SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE N-HALF OF S NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS MAY GUST
TO 25 KT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL BE UP TO 40 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO TERMINALS...BUT IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE
OF.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY SW-FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY TO W...MOST EVERYWHERE THURSDAY...CONCLUDING EARLY
FRIDAY. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SW WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT. EXPECTING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT DOWN TO
THE SEA SURFACE. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
EVENING AND THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
TUE.

TUESDAY...GUSTY SW WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUES OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. HAVE INCLUDED NANTUCKET SOUND IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR TUE AS WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT THERE AS WELL.
A FEW FOG PATCHES WITH RESTRICTED VISIBILITY POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH SWELL AND WIND-WAVE MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED
LENDING TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE INTO THE 50S TOWARDS
THE END OF TODAY. SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
EXPECTED...UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. FORECASTED MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL BE JUST ABOVE 30-PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...45 TO 55 PERCENT
ON THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/ISLANDS.

WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY...THERE IS A DECREASED FIRE WEATHER
RISK SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE
RISING KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...RLG/GAF
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KALY 251734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH WITH THE
LATEST ANALYSIS PLACING THIS BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...INTO THE CAPITAL REGION THEN DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKS. THE 1KM VISIBLE RSO IMAGERY REVEALS SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST SOUTH OF I90 WITH FURTHER UPSTREAM TRENDS SHOWING MORE
BREAKS. SO WE WILL BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVERAGE
THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION AND FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IDEA WITH TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX
REFLECTIVITIES POINT TOWARD DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER W-NY AND
TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LIFTING SURFACE PARCELS SHOW MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND
WITH HEIGHTS FORECAST TO RISE...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO AT KGFL DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THERE DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH WITH THE
LATEST ANALYSIS PLACING THIS BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...INTO THE CAPITAL REGION THEN DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKS. THE 1KM VISIBLE RSO IMAGERY REVEALS SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST SOUTH OF I90 WITH FURTHER UPSTREAM TRENDS SHOWING MORE
BREAKS. SO WE WILL BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVERAGE
THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION AND FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IDEA WITH TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX
REFLECTIVITIES POINT TOWARD DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER W-NY AND
TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LIFTING SURFACE PARCELS SHOW MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND
WITH HEIGHTS FORECAST TO RISE...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO AT KGFL DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THERE DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 251734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH WITH THE
LATEST ANALYSIS PLACING THIS BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...INTO THE CAPITAL REGION THEN DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKS. THE 1KM VISIBLE RSO IMAGERY REVEALS SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST SOUTH OF I90 WITH FURTHER UPSTREAM TRENDS SHOWING MORE
BREAKS. SO WE WILL BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVERAGE
THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION AND FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IDEA WITH TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX
REFLECTIVITIES POINT TOWARD DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER W-NY AND
TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LIFTING SURFACE PARCELS SHOW MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND
WITH HEIGHTS FORECAST TO RISE...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO AT KGFL DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THERE DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE PRODUCING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FROM AROUND THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD...WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE I-90 CORRIDOR LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT NEAR THE LINE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY VS PARTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. TRICKY CALL WITH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...AND RAISED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO AT KGFL DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THERE DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 251727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE PRODUCING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FROM AROUND THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD...WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE I-90 CORRIDOR LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT NEAR THE LINE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY VS PARTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. TRICKY CALL WITH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...AND RAISED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO AT KGFL DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THERE DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251425
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE PRODUCING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FROM AROUND THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD...WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE I-90 CORRIDOR LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT NEAR THE LINE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY VS PARTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. TRICKY CALL WITH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...AND RAISED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251425
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE PRODUCING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FROM AROUND THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD...WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE I-90 CORRIDOR LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT NEAR THE LINE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY VS PARTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. TRICKY CALL WITH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...AND RAISED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251425
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE PRODUCING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FROM AROUND THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD...WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE I-90 CORRIDOR LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT NEAR THE LINE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY VS PARTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. TRICKY CALL WITH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...AND RAISED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251425
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE PRODUCING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FROM AROUND THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD...WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE I-90 CORRIDOR LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT NEAR THE LINE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY VS PARTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. TRICKY CALL WITH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...AND RAISED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
957 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

MADE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR SKY COVER AS WELL AS WIND
GUSTS...INCREASING BOTH BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THERE REMAIN A
FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TREND. AS THEY ARE
OVER A FAIRLY DATA SPARSE REGION...NOT SURE IF ANY OF THE PRECIP
IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK.

THE CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH PRESENT...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BLOCK OUT
THE LATE-MAY SUNSHINE. THUS EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 80S. 925 MB TEMPS HIT 17C ON SUNDAY AND ARE FORECAST TO HIT
20C THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S AND ON THE TIP OF CAPE ANN WHERE A
SW TO S WIND OFF THE COOL OCEAN WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES TO
THE 70S. THICKER CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK...BUT AM
THINKING THAT WOULD MAINLY BE OVER N NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE BETTER
LIFT RESIDES.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND S/SW WINDS INCREASING
TO 30-35 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE S-COAST. BUFKIT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND
GUSTS TO 20-28 MPH OVER LAND AREAS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF 5 PM.
THE WIND GUSTS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DUE TO A PRONOUNCED INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL HELP INCREASE
DEWPOINTS TO THE UPPER 50S AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40
KNOTS AT 925 MB WILL BE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE AIR SHOULD
BE DECOUPLED ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG WIND GUSTS AT THE GROUND.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
COD/ISLANDS. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER. AGAIN...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

TUESDAY...S NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST
AIR FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING MAY THIN ALLOWING SUNSHINE FOR A TIME. IT WILL BE BREEZY
AND VERY WARM. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE 60S...IT WILL
NOT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPERATURES TO ZOOM INTO THE 80S...MAXING OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S ESPECIALLY IN THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK
VALLEYS...BUT STILL UPPER 60S AND 70S AT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/
ISLANDS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA TO POP SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
WE HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY IN THOSE AREAS...BUT
REMAINING DRY IN EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
 - THREAT OF MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S COAST
 - SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
 - THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
 - POTENTIAL LULL IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY
 - ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SW-CONVERGENT FLOW AND RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO SLINK SE TOWARDS
SNE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE. INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PA / UPSTATE NY BY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXES PRESSING E WITH THE WSW STEERING FLOW
INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY SOME SEVERE
TO THE W. OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN FOR HERE. PER BUFKIT CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR LINGERS. H925-85 SW-FLOW IS
DIVERGENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY PUSHES E INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BUT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS IT DOES SO. SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LINGERING
INTO THE FOLLOWING MORNING. WITH ANTICIPATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE... WARM /
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH S-FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N...THOUGH MID-
TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS MAY LIMIT HEATING. MARINE STRATUS / FOG
LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR S/SE-
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A STOUT WARM-DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

THURSDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT: MAIN DRIVING FORCE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AND ATTENDANT JET-STREAK LIFTS NE RESULTING IN A COOL FRONT PUSHING
SE OUT OF CANADA TO BECOME DIFFUSE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IN
ADDITION TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER LEFT-OVER FROM WEDNESDAY PUTS INTO
QUESTION OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER MAY NOT DESTABILIZE...MID-LEVEL COOLING LENDING TO INCREASED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE SUGGESTION OF PERHAPS SOME MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING /IN ADDITION TO THE CONSENSUS OF DECENT THETA-E
AND INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SNE/ YIELDS CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. DECENT SHEAR SO A SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE BUT
HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1.5-INCHES WITH FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT. CONTINUING
WITH A WARM-MUGGY THEME WITH RESPECT TO CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MARINE
STRATUS / FOG BEING AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT: DISCREPANCIES AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE. WHILE
THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS PRIME FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
NOT A LOT OF FORCING APPARENT. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
INFLUENTIAL AS RIDGING ENHANCES ALOFT EVER SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
WEEKEND DISTURBANCE. BIGGEST DISCREPANCY CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY TO WHICH GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST CAN DESTABILIZE.
WILL KEEP WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIOD.

WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: AGREED UPON THAT ENERGY DIVING S ROUND
THE N CANADIAN VORTEX MEETS UP WITH ENERGY OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNCLEAR AS
TO ITS EVOLUTION...WHETHER IT STALLS. FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMES COMPLICATED. OF CERTAINTY IS THAT A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
TO EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BENEATH DEEP-LAYER FORCING.
THIS SHOULD YIELD LIKELY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BUT WITH
TIMING AND LONGEVITY UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS. SCT SPRINKLES ACROSS
THE W-HALF OF NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS MAY GUST TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL BE UP TO 40 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO TERMINALS...BUT IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE
OF.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY SW-FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY TO W...MOST EVERYWHERE THURSDAY...CONCLUDING EARLY
FRIDAY. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SW WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT. EXPECTING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT DOWN TO
THE SEA SURFACE. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
EVENING AND THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
TUE.

TUESDAY...GUSTY SW WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUES OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. HAVE INCLUDED NANTUCKET SOUND IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR TUE AS WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT THERE AS WELL.
A FEW FOG PATCHES WITH RESTRICTED VISIBILITY POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH SWELL AND WIND-WAVE MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED
LENDING TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE INTO THE 50S TOWARDS
THE END OF TODAY. SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
EXPECTED...UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. FORECASTED MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL BE JUST ABOVE 30-PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...45 TO 55 PERCENT
ON THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/ISLANDS.

WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY...THERE IS A DECREASED FIRE WEATHER
RISK SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE
RISING KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL/GAF
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/GAF
MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251131
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

730 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE W-HALF OF S
NEW ENGLAND. SURPRISING KNOWING HOW DRY THE MID- TO LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE ARE PRESENTLY. FOCUS OF ACTIVITY ALONG A WARM-FRONT
NW-SE ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-
TO HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS.

THE CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH PRESENT...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BLOCK OUT
THE LATE-MAY SUNSHINE. THUS EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 80S. 925 MB TEMPS HIT 17C ON SUNDAY AND ARE FORECAST TO HIT
20C THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S AND ON THE TIP OF CAPE ANN WHERE A SW TO
S WIND OFF THE COOL OCEAN WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES TO THE
70S. THICKER CLOUD COVER COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK...BUT AM
THINKING THAT WOULD MAINLY BE OVER N NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE BETTER
LIFT RESIDES.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND S/SW WINDS INCREASING
TO 30-35 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE S-COAST. BUFKIT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND
GUSTS TO 20-28 MPH OVER LAND AREAS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF 5 PM.
THE WIND GUSTS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DUE TO A PRONOUNCED INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL HELP INCREASE
DEWPOINTS TO THE UPPER 50S AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40
KNOTS AT 925 MB WILL BE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT THE AIR SHOULD
BE DECOUPLED ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG WIND GUSTS AT THE GROUND.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
COD/ISLANDS. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG THE MA/NH
BORDER. AGAIN...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

TUESDAY...S NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST
AIR FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING MAY THIN ALLOWING SUNSHINE FOR A TIME. IT WILL BE BREEZY
AND VERY WARM. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE 60S...IT WILL
NOT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPERATURES TO ZOOM INTO THE 80S...MAXING OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S ESPECIALLY IN THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK
VALLEYS...BUT STILL UPPER 60S AND 70S AT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/
ISLANDS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA TO POP SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
WE HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY IN THOSE AREAS...BUT
REMAINING DRY IN EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
 - THREAT OF MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S COAST
 - SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
 - THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
 - POTENTIAL LULL IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY
 - ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SW-CONVERGENT FLOW AND RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO SLINK SE TOWARDS
SNE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE. INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PA / UPSTATE NY BY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXES PRESSING E WITH THE WSW STEERING FLOW
INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY SOME SEVERE
TO THE W. OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN FOR HERE. PER BUFKIT CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR LINGERS. H925-85 SW-FLOW IS
DIVERGENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY PUSHES E INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BUT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS IT DOES SO. SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LINGERING
INTO THE FOLLOWING MORNING. WITH ANTICIPATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE... WARM /
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH S-FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N...THOUGH MID-
TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS MAY LIMIT HEATING. MARINE STRATUS / FOG
LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR S/SE-
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A STOUT WARM-DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

THURSDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT: MAIN DRIVING FORCE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AND ATTENDANT JET-STREAK LIFTS NE RESULTING IN A COOL FRONT PUSHING
SE OUT OF CANADA TO BECOME DIFFUSE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IN
ADDITION TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER LEFT-OVER FROM WEDNESDAY PUTS INTO
QUESTION OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER MAY NOT DESTABILIZE...MID-LEVEL COOLING LENDING TO INCREASED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE SUGGESTION OF PERHAPS SOME MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING /IN ADDITION TO THE CONSENSUS OF DECENT THETA-E
AND INSTABILITY AXWS ACROSS SNE/ YIELDS CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. DECENT SHEAR SO A SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE BUT
HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1.5-INCHES WITH FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT. CONTINUING
WITH A WARM-MUGGY THEME WITH RESPECT TO CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MARINE
STRATUS / FOG BEING AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT: DISCREPANCIES AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE. WHILE
THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS PRIME FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
NOT A LOT OF FORCING APPARENT. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
INFLUENTIAL AS RIDGING ENHANCES ALOFT EVER SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
WEEKEND DISTURBANCE. BIGGEST DISCREPANCY CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY TO WHICH GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST CAN DESTABILIZE.
WILL KEEP WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIOD.

WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: AGREED UPON THAT ENERGY DIVING S ROUND
THE N CANADIAN VORTEX MEETS UP WITH ENERGY OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNCLEAR AS
TO ITS EVOLUTION...WHETHER IT STALLS. FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMES COMPLICATED. OF CERTAINTY IS THAT A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
TO EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BENEATH DEEP-LAYER FORCING.
THIS SHOULD YIELD LIKELY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BUT WITH
TIMING AND LONGEVITY UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z UPDATE...

TODAY...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CIGS. SCT SPRINKLES ACROSS
THE W-HALF OF NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS MAY GUST TO 25 KT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL BE UP TO 40 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO TERMINALS...BUT IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE
OF.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY SW-FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY TO W...MOST EVERYWHERE THURSDAY...CONCLUDING EARLY
FRIDAY. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

730 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

TODAY...SW WINDS...GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT. EXPECTING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT DOWN TO
THE SEA SURFACE. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
EVENING AND THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
TUE.

TUESDAY...GUSTY SW WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUES OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. HAVE INCLUDED NANTUCKET SOUND IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR TUE AS WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT THERE AS WELL.
A FEW FOG PATCHES WITH RESTRICTED VISIBILITY POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH SWELL AND WIND-WAVE MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED
LENDING TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE INTO THE 50S TOWARDS
THE END OF TODAY. SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
EXPECTED...UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. FORECASTED MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL BE JUST ABOVE 30-PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...45 TO 55 PERCENT
ON THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/ISLANDS.

WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY...THERE IS A DECREASED FIRE WEATHER
RISK SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ON TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE
RISING KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/GAF
MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF
FIRE WEATHER...WFO BOX STAFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 251058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 251044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMIDITY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMIDITY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 251044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMIDITY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 251044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMIDITY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 250932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
532 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMIDITY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 250932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
532 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMIDITY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 250903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASING WARM...HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR STORMS. MORE TO COME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 250903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASING WARM...HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR STORMS. MORE TO COME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 250903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASING WARM...HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR STORMS. MORE TO COME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 250752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
345 AM UPDATE...AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM EASTERN
MICHIGAN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS TO NEAR DELMARVA
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS COVERED SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AHEAD OF IT. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH PRESENT...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BLOCK OUT
ALL SUNSHINE. THUS THE WARM LATE-MAY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S. 925 MB TEMPS HIT 17C ON
SUNDAY AND THEY ARE FORECAST TO HIT 20C THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ON CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S AND
ON THE TIP OF CAPE ANN WHERE A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND OFF THE
COOL OCEAN WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S. THICKER CLOUD
COVER COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK...BUT AM THINKING THAT WOULD
MAINLY BE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE BETTER LIFTING
PROCESSES ARE. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SOME PRECIPITATION FOR
NORTHERN MA...AM EXPECTING A COMPLETELY DRY MEMORIAL DAY.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 30-35 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUFKIT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 20-28 MPH OVER LAND AREAS WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO OF 5 PM. THE WIND GUSTS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO A PRONOUNCED INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL HELP
INCREASE DEWPOINTS TO THE UPPER 50S AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 60S. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
OF AROUND 40 KNOTS AT 925 MB WILL BE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT
THE AIR SHOULD BE DECOUPLED ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG WIND GUSTS AT
THE GROUND. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE COD/ISLANDS. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG THE
MA/NH BORDER. AGAIN...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

TUESDAY...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN INCREASINGLY WARM AND
MOIST AIR FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE MORNING MAY THIN ALLOWING SUNSHINE FOR A TIME. IT WILL BE
BREEZY AND VERY WARM. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE 60S...IT
WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPERATURES TO ZOOM INTO THE 80S...MAXING
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S ESPECIALLY IN THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK
VALLEYS...BUT STILL UPPER 60S AND 70S AT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/
ISLANDS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA TO POP SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
WE HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY IN THOSE AREAS...BUT
REMAINING DRY IN EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
 - THREAT OF MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S COAST
 - SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
 - THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
 - POTENTIAL LULL IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY
 - ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SW-CONVERGENT FLOW AND RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO SLINK SE TOWARDS
SNE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE. INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PA / UPSTATE NY BY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXES PRESSING E WITH THE WSW STEERING FLOW
INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY SOME SEVERE
TO THE W. OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN FOR HERE. PER BUFKIT CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR LINGERS. H925-85 SW-FLOW IS
DIVERGENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY PUSHES E INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BUT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS IT DOES SO. SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LINGERING
INTO THE FOLLOWING MORNING. WITH ANTICIPATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE... WARM /
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH S-FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N...THOUGH MID-
TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS MAY LIMIT HEATING. MARINE STRATUS / FOG
LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR S/SE-
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A STOUT WARM-DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

THURSDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT: MAIN DRIVING FORCE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AND ATTENDANT JET-STREAK LIFTS NE RESULTING IN A COOL FRONT PUSHING
SE OUT OF CANADA TO BECOME DIFFUSE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IN
ADDITION TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER LEFT-OVER FROM WEDNESDAY PUTS INTO
QUESTION OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER MAY NOT DESTABILIZE...MID-LEVEL COOLING LENDING TO INCREASED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE SUGGESTION OF PERHAPS SOME MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING /IN ADDITION TO THE CONSENSUS OF DECENT THETA-E
AND INSTABILITY AXWS ACROSS SNE/ YIELDS CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. DECENT SHEAR SO A SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE BUT
HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1.5-INCHES WITH FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT. CONTINUING
WITH A WARM-MUGGY THEME WITH RESPECT TO CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MARINE
STRATUS / FOG BEING AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT: DISCREPANCIES AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE. WHILE
THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS PRIME FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
NOT A LOT OF FORCING APPARENT. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
INFLUENTIAL AS RIDGING ENHANCES ALOFT EVER SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
WEEKEND DISTURBANCE. BIGGEST DISCREPANCY CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY TO WHICH GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST CAN DESTABILIZE.
WILL KEEP WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIOD.

WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: AGREED UPON THAT ENERGY DIVING S ROUND
THE N CANADIAN VORTEX MEETS UP WITH ENERGY OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNCLEAR AS
TO ITS EVOLUTION...WHETHER IT STALLS. FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMES COMPLICATED. OF CERTAINTY IS THAT A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
TO EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BENEATH DEEP-LAYER FORCING.
THIS SHOULD YIELD LIKELY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BUT WITH
TIMING AND LONGEVITY UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. ANY PATCHES OF MVFR VSBY IN FOG ALONG THE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING. SW WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT OVER THE INTERIOR 20-23Z.

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL BE UP TO 40 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO TERMINALS...BUT IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE
OF.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY SW-FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY TO W...MOST EVERYWHERE THURSDAY...CONCLUDING EARLY
FRIDAY. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SW WINDS CONTINUE...GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT. EXPECTING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT DOWN TO
THE SEA SURFACE. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
EVENING AND THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
TUE.

TUESDAY...GUSTY SW WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUES OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. HAVE INCLUDED NANTUCKET SOUND IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR TUE AS WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT THERE AS WELL.
A FEW FOG PATCHES WITH RESTRICTED VISIBILITY POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH SWELL AND WIND-WAVE MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED
LENDING TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE INTO THE 50S TODAY.
SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED... HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 MPH GUSTS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF 5 PM.
FORECASTED MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE FROM 35 TO 40 PERCENT OVER
THE INTERIOR TODAY...AND 45 TO 55 PERCENT ON THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE COD/ISLANDS. WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY...EXPECT
LOWERED FIRE WEATHER RISK SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A STATEMENT AT
THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ON TUE...DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE RISING
KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIELD/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FIELD
SHORT TERM...FIELD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FIELD/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FIELD/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...FIELD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 250752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
345 AM UPDATE...AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM EASTERN
MICHIGAN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS TO NEAR DELMARVA
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS COVERED SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AHEAD OF IT. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH PRESENT...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BLOCK OUT
ALL SUNSHINE. THUS THE WARM LATE-MAY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S. 925 MB TEMPS HIT 17C ON
SUNDAY AND THEY ARE FORECAST TO HIT 20C THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ON CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S AND
ON THE TIP OF CAPE ANN WHERE A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND OFF THE
COOL OCEAN WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S. THICKER CLOUD
COVER COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK...BUT AM THINKING THAT WOULD
MAINLY BE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE BETTER LIFTING
PROCESSES ARE. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SOME PRECIPITATION FOR
NORTHERN MA...AM EXPECTING A COMPLETELY DRY MEMORIAL DAY.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 30-35 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUFKIT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 20-28 MPH OVER LAND AREAS WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO OF 5 PM. THE WIND GUSTS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO A PRONOUNCED INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL HELP
INCREASE DEWPOINTS TO THE UPPER 50S AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 60S. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
OF AROUND 40 KNOTS AT 925 MB WILL BE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT
THE AIR SHOULD BE DECOUPLED ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG WIND GUSTS AT
THE GROUND. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE COD/ISLANDS. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG THE
MA/NH BORDER. AGAIN...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

TUESDAY...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN INCREASINGLY WARM AND
MOIST AIR FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE MORNING MAY THIN ALLOWING SUNSHINE FOR A TIME. IT WILL BE
BREEZY AND VERY WARM. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE 60S...IT
WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPERATURES TO ZOOM INTO THE 80S...MAXING
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S ESPECIALLY IN THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK
VALLEYS...BUT STILL UPPER 60S AND 70S AT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/
ISLANDS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA TO POP SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
WE HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY IN THOSE AREAS...BUT
REMAINING DRY IN EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
 - THREAT OF MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S COAST
 - SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
 - THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
 - POTENTIAL LULL IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY
 - ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SW-CONVERGENT FLOW AND RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO SLINK SE TOWARDS
SNE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE. INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PA / UPSTATE NY BY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXES PRESSING E WITH THE WSW STEERING FLOW
INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY SOME SEVERE
TO THE W. OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN FOR HERE. PER BUFKIT CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR LINGERS. H925-85 SW-FLOW IS
DIVERGENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY PUSHES E INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BUT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS IT DOES SO. SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LINGERING
INTO THE FOLLOWING MORNING. WITH ANTICIPATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE... WARM /
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH S-FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N...THOUGH MID-
TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS MAY LIMIT HEATING. MARINE STRATUS / FOG
LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR S/SE-
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A STOUT WARM-DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

THURSDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT: MAIN DRIVING FORCE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AND ATTENDANT JET-STREAK LIFTS NE RESULTING IN A COOL FRONT PUSHING
SE OUT OF CANADA TO BECOME DIFFUSE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IN
ADDITION TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER LEFT-OVER FROM WEDNESDAY PUTS INTO
QUESTION OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER MAY NOT DESTABILIZE...MID-LEVEL COOLING LENDING TO INCREASED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE SUGGESTION OF PERHAPS SOME MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING /IN ADDITION TO THE CONSENSUS OF DECENT THETA-E
AND INSTABILITY AXWS ACROSS SNE/ YIELDS CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. DECENT SHEAR SO A SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE BUT
HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1.5-INCHES WITH FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT. CONTINUING
WITH A WARM-MUGGY THEME WITH RESPECT TO CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MARINE
STRATUS / FOG BEING AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT: DISCREPANCIES AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE. WHILE
THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS PRIME FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
NOT A LOT OF FORCING APPARENT. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
INFLUENTIAL AS RIDGING ENHANCES ALOFT EVER SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
WEEKEND DISTURBANCE. BIGGEST DISCREPANCY CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY TO WHICH GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST CAN DESTABILIZE.
WILL KEEP WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIOD.

WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: AGREED UPON THAT ENERGY DIVING S ROUND
THE N CANADIAN VORTEX MEETS UP WITH ENERGY OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNCLEAR AS
TO ITS EVOLUTION...WHETHER IT STALLS. FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMES COMPLICATED. OF CERTAINTY IS THAT A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
TO EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BENEATH DEEP-LAYER FORCING.
THIS SHOULD YIELD LIKELY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BUT WITH
TIMING AND LONGEVITY UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. ANY PATCHES OF MVFR VSBY IN FOG ALONG THE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING. SW WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT OVER THE INTERIOR 20-23Z.

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL BE UP TO 40 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO TERMINALS...BUT IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE
OF.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY SW-FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY TO W...MOST EVERYWHERE THURSDAY...CONCLUDING EARLY
FRIDAY. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SW WINDS CONTINUE...GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT. EXPECTING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT DOWN TO
THE SEA SURFACE. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
EVENING AND THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
TUE.

TUESDAY...GUSTY SW WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUES OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. HAVE INCLUDED NANTUCKET SOUND IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR TUE AS WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT THERE AS WELL.
A FEW FOG PATCHES WITH RESTRICTED VISIBILITY POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH SWELL AND WIND-WAVE MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED
LENDING TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE INTO THE 50S TODAY.
SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED... HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 MPH GUSTS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF 5 PM.
FORECASTED MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE FROM 35 TO 40 PERCENT OVER
THE INTERIOR TODAY...AND 45 TO 55 PERCENT ON THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE COD/ISLANDS. WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY...EXPECT
LOWERED FIRE WEATHER RISK SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A STATEMENT AT
THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ON TUE...DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE RISING
KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIELD/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FIELD
SHORT TERM...FIELD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FIELD/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FIELD/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...FIELD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 250752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
345 AM UPDATE...AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM EASTERN
MICHIGAN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS TO NEAR DELMARVA
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS COVERED SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AHEAD OF IT. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH PRESENT...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BLOCK OUT
ALL SUNSHINE. THUS THE WARM LATE-MAY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S. 925 MB TEMPS HIT 17C ON
SUNDAY AND THEY ARE FORECAST TO HIT 20C THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ON CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S AND
ON THE TIP OF CAPE ANN WHERE A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND OFF THE
COOL OCEAN WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S. THICKER CLOUD
COVER COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK...BUT AM THINKING THAT WOULD
MAINLY BE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE BETTER LIFTING
PROCESSES ARE. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SOME PRECIPITATION FOR
NORTHERN MA...AM EXPECTING A COMPLETELY DRY MEMORIAL DAY.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 30-35 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. BUFKIT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 20-28 MPH OVER LAND AREAS WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO OF 5 PM. THE WIND GUSTS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO A PRONOUNCED INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL HELP
INCREASE DEWPOINTS TO THE UPPER 50S AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 60S. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
OF AROUND 40 KNOTS AT 925 MB WILL BE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT
THE AIR SHOULD BE DECOUPLED ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG WIND GUSTS AT
THE GROUND. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE COD/ISLANDS. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG THE
MA/NH BORDER. AGAIN...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

TUESDAY...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN INCREASINGLY WARM AND
MOIST AIR FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH CLOUDS
IN THE MORNING MAY THIN ALLOWING SUNSHINE FOR A TIME. IT WILL BE
BREEZY AND VERY WARM. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE 60S...IT
WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPERATURES TO ZOOM INTO THE 80S...MAXING
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S ESPECIALLY IN THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK
VALLEYS...BUT STILL UPPER 60S AND 70S AT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD/
ISLANDS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN NORTHWEST CT AND WESTERN MA TO POP SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
WE HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY IN THOSE AREAS...BUT
REMAINING DRY IN EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
 - THREAT OF MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S COAST
 - SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
 - THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
 - POTENTIAL LULL IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY
 - ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SW-CONVERGENT FLOW AND RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO SLINK SE TOWARDS
SNE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE. INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PA / UPSTATE NY BY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARALLEL WITH LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXES PRESSING E WITH THE WSW STEERING FLOW
INTO N/W NEW ENGLAND LATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIKELY SOME SEVERE
TO THE W. OUTCOMES UNCERTAIN FOR HERE. PER BUFKIT CAPPING INVERSION
ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR LINGERS. H925-85 SW-FLOW IS
DIVERGENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY PUSHES E INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BUT LOSES ITS PUNCH AS IT DOES SO. SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LINGERING
INTO THE FOLLOWING MORNING. WITH ANTICIPATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE... WARM /
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH S-FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N...THOUGH MID-
TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS MAY LIMIT HEATING. MARINE STRATUS / FOG
LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR S/SE-
COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS MOISTURE POOLS BENEATH A STOUT WARM-DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

THURSDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT: MAIN DRIVING FORCE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AND ATTENDANT JET-STREAK LIFTS NE RESULTING IN A COOL FRONT PUSHING
SE OUT OF CANADA TO BECOME DIFFUSE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IN
ADDITION TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER LEFT-OVER FROM WEDNESDAY PUTS INTO
QUESTION OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER MAY NOT DESTABILIZE...MID-LEVEL COOLING LENDING TO INCREASED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE SUGGESTION OF PERHAPS SOME MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING /IN ADDITION TO THE CONSENSUS OF DECENT THETA-E
AND INSTABILITY AXWS ACROSS SNE/ YIELDS CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. DECENT SHEAR SO A SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE BUT
HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1.5-INCHES WITH FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS OF 11-12 KFT. CONTINUING
WITH A WARM-MUGGY THEME WITH RESPECT TO CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MARINE
STRATUS / FOG BEING AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE-COAST.

FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT: DISCREPANCIES AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE. WHILE
THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS PRIME FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
NOT A LOT OF FORCING APPARENT. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
INFLUENTIAL AS RIDGING ENHANCES ALOFT EVER SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
WEEKEND DISTURBANCE. BIGGEST DISCREPANCY CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY TO WHICH GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST CAN DESTABILIZE.
WILL KEEP WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIOD.

WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: AGREED UPON THAT ENERGY DIVING S ROUND
THE N CANADIAN VORTEX MEETS UP WITH ENERGY OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNCLEAR AS
TO ITS EVOLUTION...WHETHER IT STALLS. FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BECOMES COMPLICATED. OF CERTAINTY IS THAT A PRIMED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
TO EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BENEATH DEEP-LAYER FORCING.
THIS SHOULD YIELD LIKELY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BUT WITH
TIMING AND LONGEVITY UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. ANY PATCHES OF MVFR VSBY IN FOG ALONG THE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING. SW WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT OVER THE INTERIOR 20-23Z.

TONIGHT...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS LATE S COAST/
CAPE COD/ISLANDS. SW WINDS WILL BE UP TO 40 KT AT 1000-2000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO BE INSERTED INTO TERMINALS...BUT IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE
OF.

TUESDAY...VFR. COULD STILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG NEAR
THE S COAST...MAINLY EARLY. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
NW CT AND WESTERN MA...INCLUDING BDL/BAF AND IN THE BERKSHIRES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY SW-FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS AT TIMES. IFR STRATUS / FOG POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY TO W...MOST EVERYWHERE THURSDAY...CONCLUDING EARLY
FRIDAY. TEMPO MVFR-IFR WITH ANY ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SW WINDS CONTINUE...GUSTING UP TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.

TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT. EXPECTING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MAKING IT DOWN TO
THE SEA SURFACE. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
EVENING AND THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH
TUE.

TUESDAY...GUSTY SW WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUES OVER THE
OUTER WATERS...AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. HAVE INCLUDED NANTUCKET SOUND IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR TUE AS WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT THERE AS WELL.
A FEW FOG PATCHES WITH RESTRICTED VISIBILITY POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 5-FEET WITH SWELL AND WIND-WAVE MOSTLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS BUT GETTING INTO THE S INNER SOUNDS. DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED
LENDING TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE INTO THE 50S TODAY.
SW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED... HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 MPH GUSTS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF 5 PM.
FORECASTED MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE FROM 35 TO 40 PERCENT OVER
THE INTERIOR TODAY...AND 45 TO 55 PERCENT ON THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE COD/ISLANDS. WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY...EXPECT
LOWERED FIRE WEATHER RISK SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A STATEMENT AT
THIS TIME.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ON TUE...DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE RISING
KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIELD/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FIELD
SHORT TERM...FIELD
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FIELD/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FIELD/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...FIELD




000
FXUS61 KALY 250606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THE AIRMASS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA IS VERY DRY...THE PRECITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING WAS ONLY 0.51 INCHES. GUIDANCE INDICATED THE RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN
NEW YORK SO PULLED BACK ON POPS AND NOW ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE.

MUCH MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 90 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEEK ON TAP WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 250606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THE AIRMASS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA IS VERY DRY...THE PRECITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING WAS ONLY 0.51 INCHES. GUIDANCE INDICATED THE RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN
NEW YORK SO PULLED BACK ON POPS AND NOW ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE.

MUCH MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 90 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEEK ON TAP WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 250606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THE AIRMASS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA IS VERY DRY...THE PRECITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING WAS ONLY 0.51 INCHES. GUIDANCE INDICATED THE RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN
NEW YORK SO PULLED BACK ON POPS AND NOW ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE.

MUCH MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL