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000
FXUS61 KALY 271744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM...NOT MUCH CHANNGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH. HAVE KEPT
THE SKY COVER AND POP FORECAST AS THEY WERE...WITH ONLY MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED
THEIR HIGHS FOR TODAY OR WILL ONLY GO UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO...SO HAVE FORECAST TEMPS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALREADY QUICKLY FILLING IN AS THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET/EXCEEDED. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE EARLIER BREAKS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SARATOGA
REGION.

THIS MORNING/S 12Z KALY SOUNDING REVEALED DEEPER MOISTURE...AND A
WEAKER CAP IN PLACE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHICH...IN
COMBINATION WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...SHOULD HELP PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MORE NUMEROUS COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

SKY COVER SHOULD TEND TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY REACH THEIR MAXES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE FALLING ONCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN WHERE EVEN HIGHER GUSTS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
FOR SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND GRADUAL CLEARING TO SEEP INTO
THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE OVER MOST
OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 18Z/TUE. HOWEVER...A FEW PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESP AT KPSF TONIGHT.

ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT AGAIN...THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 271744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM...NOT MUCH CHANNGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH. HAVE KEPT
THE SKY COVER AND POP FORECAST AS THEY WERE...WITH ONLY MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED
THEIR HIGHS FOR TODAY OR WILL ONLY GO UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO...SO HAVE FORECAST TEMPS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALREADY QUICKLY FILLING IN AS THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET/EXCEEDED. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE EARLIER BREAKS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SARATOGA
REGION.

THIS MORNING/S 12Z KALY SOUNDING REVEALED DEEPER MOISTURE...AND A
WEAKER CAP IN PLACE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHICH...IN
COMBINATION WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...SHOULD HELP PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MORE NUMEROUS COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

SKY COVER SHOULD TEND TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY REACH THEIR MAXES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE FALLING ONCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN WHERE EVEN HIGHER GUSTS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
FOR SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND GRADUAL CLEARING TO SEEP INTO
THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OVERALL FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE OVER MOST
OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 18Z/TUE. HOWEVER...A FEW PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESP AT KPSF TONIGHT.

ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT AGAIN...THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 271740
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

130 PM UPDATE...

LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD TO WHICH THE HRRR HAS TRENDED
WELL...PERHAPS AN HOUR OFF. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW APPLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFFSHORE ALONG AN ELONGATED
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL ENERGY REARWARD OF THE
NEARLY-STACKED LOW SE OF NEWFOUNDLAND SWEEP ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND.

FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARDS A RAIN-BAND PUSHING S OUT OF MAINE ALONG A
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT. COLLOCATED WITH A STOUT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK-BUILDING LOW AHEAD OF WHICH DEEP-LAYER
FORCING IS INVOKED HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HRRR TRENDS AS WE GO
INTO EVENING. LIKELY TO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY E OF THE CT-
RIVER VALLEY. PUNCH OF COLDER AIR S/SW AS WINDS TURN BLUSTERY OUT
OF THE N/NE. MORE DETAILS IN THE /TONIGHT/ DISCUSSION BELOW.

SO FOR TODAY...ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS WHICH WOULD
YIELD SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. TEMPERATURES KEPT AT BELOW-SEASONABLE LEVELS
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-50S...COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ALONG THE COAST. SADLY NOT VERY SPRING-LIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF MAKES ITS CLOSET APPROACH TO
S NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...THEN STARTS TO ROTATE BACK OUT TO
SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
GETS INTO A PATTERN OF DECREASING MOISTURE. IN TURN...THIS MEANS A
LOWER RISK FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ENOUGH...AND WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WHERE SEABREEZES COULD
DEVELOP. THAT WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
COASTS. AT THIS TIME...THINKING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH/COASTAL LOW ON THURS/FRIDAY BRINGS BELOW NORMAL
  TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES ALLOWING FOR BRIEF RIDGING ON WED. STILL
WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP
TROUGH BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE
NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL THE 00Z
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A STRONGER OH VLY/MID ATLC UPPER LOW THUS
LEADING TO A FARTHER WESTWARD SURFACE TRACK THURSDAY.  THE 00Z GFS
IS LOOKING LIKE A DEEP EXTREME WITH ITS UPR LOW THOUGH...WITH THE
GEFS MEAN AND NEW ECMWF SUPPORTING MORE MODERATE DEPTH. THEREFORE
BELIEVE GFS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC/EC/UKMET. ONCE THE SYSTEMS PHASE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD.

DETAILS...

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP
AND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER STALLING THE
LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TRENDED TOWARDS THE
CONSISTENT EC WHICH STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...YET SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEN PREV RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND
FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL SYSTEM. ALSO KNOCKED
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

* MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY IS LOOKING WARM BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES AS
PATTERN WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE THURS/FRI SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /TILL 0Z WEDNESDAY/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR CIGS MAINLY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH -SHRA...ACROSS E MA / RI...DEVELOPING
TOWARDS LATER AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...CONCLUDING BY 6Z. LOW-
RISK IFR FOR CAPE. NW-WINDS BACKING N-NE BECOMING BLUSTERY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CIGS IMPROVE TO LOW-END VFR. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST. REMAINS
BLUSTERY OUT N TURNING NW.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK NE TOWARDS EVENING WITH BETTER SHRA
CHANCES.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF COASTLINE.
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /TILL TUESDAY EVENING/...

130 PM UPDATE...

GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT A WEAK SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST LENDING TO SOME VARIANCE IN THE WIND AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS THE DOMINANT FLOW WILL BE NW WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS. SEAS LIKELY TO ENHANCE...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS S ALONG WHICH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE...WIND GUSTS INCREASE OUT OF THE N WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALES. THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO MORNING DIMINISHING THROUGH
TUESDAY. SMALL-CRAFTS CONTINUE...BUT MAY NEED TO EXPAND AND ARE
EVALUATING THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. WAVES BUILDING 6-8 FEET ON
THE E-OUTER WATERS.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...GOOD BOATING WEATHER AS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM
MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL
OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL
WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR
FRIDAY. AGAIN HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50
PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271740
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

130 PM UPDATE...

LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD TO WHICH THE HRRR HAS TRENDED
WELL...PERHAPS AN HOUR OFF. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW APPLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFFSHORE ALONG AN ELONGATED
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL ENERGY REARWARD OF THE
NEARLY-STACKED LOW SE OF NEWFOUNDLAND SWEEP ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND.

FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARDS A RAIN-BAND PUSHING S OUT OF MAINE ALONG A
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT. COLLOCATED WITH A STOUT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK-BUILDING LOW AHEAD OF WHICH DEEP-LAYER
FORCING IS INVOKED HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HRRR TRENDS AS WE GO
INTO EVENING. LIKELY TO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY E OF THE CT-
RIVER VALLEY. PUNCH OF COLDER AIR S/SW AS WINDS TURN BLUSTERY OUT
OF THE N/NE. MORE DETAILS IN THE /TONIGHT/ DISCUSSION BELOW.

SO FOR TODAY...ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS WHICH WOULD
YIELD SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. TEMPERATURES KEPT AT BELOW-SEASONABLE LEVELS
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-50S...COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ALONG THE COAST. SADLY NOT VERY SPRING-LIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF MAKES ITS CLOSET APPROACH TO
S NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...THEN STARTS TO ROTATE BACK OUT TO
SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
GETS INTO A PATTERN OF DECREASING MOISTURE. IN TURN...THIS MEANS A
LOWER RISK FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ENOUGH...AND WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WHERE SEABREEZES COULD
DEVELOP. THAT WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
COASTS. AT THIS TIME...THINKING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH/COASTAL LOW ON THURS/FRIDAY BRINGS BELOW NORMAL
  TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES ALLOWING FOR BRIEF RIDGING ON WED. STILL
WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP
TROUGH BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE
NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL THE 00Z
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A STRONGER OH VLY/MID ATLC UPPER LOW THUS
LEADING TO A FARTHER WESTWARD SURFACE TRACK THURSDAY.  THE 00Z GFS
IS LOOKING LIKE A DEEP EXTREME WITH ITS UPR LOW THOUGH...WITH THE
GEFS MEAN AND NEW ECMWF SUPPORTING MORE MODERATE DEPTH. THEREFORE
BELIEVE GFS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC/EC/UKMET. ONCE THE SYSTEMS PHASE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD.

DETAILS...

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP
AND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER STALLING THE
LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TRENDED TOWARDS THE
CONSISTENT EC WHICH STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...YET SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEN PREV RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND
FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL SYSTEM. ALSO KNOCKED
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

* MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY IS LOOKING WARM BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES AS
PATTERN WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE THURS/FRI SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /TILL 0Z WEDNESDAY/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR CIGS MAINLY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH -SHRA...ACROSS E MA / RI...DEVELOPING
TOWARDS LATER AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...CONCLUDING BY 6Z. LOW-
RISK IFR FOR CAPE. NW-WINDS BACKING N-NE BECOMING BLUSTERY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CIGS IMPROVE TO LOW-END VFR. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST. REMAINS
BLUSTERY OUT N TURNING NW.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK NE TOWARDS EVENING WITH BETTER SHRA
CHANCES.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF COASTLINE.
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /TILL TUESDAY EVENING/...

130 PM UPDATE...

GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT A WEAK SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST LENDING TO SOME VARIANCE IN THE WIND AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS THE DOMINANT FLOW WILL BE NW WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS. SEAS LIKELY TO ENHANCE...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS S ALONG WHICH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE...WIND GUSTS INCREASE OUT OF THE N WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALES. THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO MORNING DIMINISHING THROUGH
TUESDAY. SMALL-CRAFTS CONTINUE...BUT MAY NEED TO EXPAND AND ARE
EVALUATING THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. WAVES BUILDING 6-8 FEET ON
THE E-OUTER WATERS.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...GOOD BOATING WEATHER AS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM
MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL
OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL
WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR
FRIDAY. AGAIN HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50
PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271740
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

130 PM UPDATE...

LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD TO WHICH THE HRRR HAS TRENDED
WELL...PERHAPS AN HOUR OFF. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW APPLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFFSHORE ALONG AN ELONGATED
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL ENERGY REARWARD OF THE
NEARLY-STACKED LOW SE OF NEWFOUNDLAND SWEEP ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND.

FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARDS A RAIN-BAND PUSHING S OUT OF MAINE ALONG A
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT. COLLOCATED WITH A STOUT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK-BUILDING LOW AHEAD OF WHICH DEEP-LAYER
FORCING IS INVOKED HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HRRR TRENDS AS WE GO
INTO EVENING. LIKELY TO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY E OF THE CT-
RIVER VALLEY. PUNCH OF COLDER AIR S/SW AS WINDS TURN BLUSTERY OUT
OF THE N/NE. MORE DETAILS IN THE /TONIGHT/ DISCUSSION BELOW.

SO FOR TODAY...ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS WHICH WOULD
YIELD SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. TEMPERATURES KEPT AT BELOW-SEASONABLE LEVELS
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-50S...COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ALONG THE COAST. SADLY NOT VERY SPRING-LIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF MAKES ITS CLOSET APPROACH TO
S NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...THEN STARTS TO ROTATE BACK OUT TO
SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
GETS INTO A PATTERN OF DECREASING MOISTURE. IN TURN...THIS MEANS A
LOWER RISK FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ENOUGH...AND WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WHERE SEABREEZES COULD
DEVELOP. THAT WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
COASTS. AT THIS TIME...THINKING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH/COASTAL LOW ON THURS/FRIDAY BRINGS BELOW NORMAL
  TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES ALLOWING FOR BRIEF RIDGING ON WED. STILL
WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP
TROUGH BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE
NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL THE 00Z
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A STRONGER OH VLY/MID ATLC UPPER LOW THUS
LEADING TO A FARTHER WESTWARD SURFACE TRACK THURSDAY.  THE 00Z GFS
IS LOOKING LIKE A DEEP EXTREME WITH ITS UPR LOW THOUGH...WITH THE
GEFS MEAN AND NEW ECMWF SUPPORTING MORE MODERATE DEPTH. THEREFORE
BELIEVE GFS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC/EC/UKMET. ONCE THE SYSTEMS PHASE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD.

DETAILS...

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP
AND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER STALLING THE
LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TRENDED TOWARDS THE
CONSISTENT EC WHICH STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...YET SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEN PREV RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND
FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL SYSTEM. ALSO KNOCKED
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

* MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY IS LOOKING WARM BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES AS
PATTERN WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE THURS/FRI SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /TILL 0Z WEDNESDAY/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR CIGS MAINLY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH -SHRA...ACROSS E MA / RI...DEVELOPING
TOWARDS LATER AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...CONCLUDING BY 6Z. LOW-
RISK IFR FOR CAPE. NW-WINDS BACKING N-NE BECOMING BLUSTERY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CIGS IMPROVE TO LOW-END VFR. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST. REMAINS
BLUSTERY OUT N TURNING NW.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK NE TOWARDS EVENING WITH BETTER SHRA
CHANCES.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF COASTLINE.
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /TILL TUESDAY EVENING/...

130 PM UPDATE...

GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT A WEAK SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST LENDING TO SOME VARIANCE IN THE WIND AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS THE DOMINANT FLOW WILL BE NW WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS. SEAS LIKELY TO ENHANCE...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS S ALONG WHICH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE...WIND GUSTS INCREASE OUT OF THE N WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALES. THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO MORNING DIMINISHING THROUGH
TUESDAY. SMALL-CRAFTS CONTINUE...BUT MAY NEED TO EXPAND AND ARE
EVALUATING THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. WAVES BUILDING 6-8 FEET ON
THE E-OUTER WATERS.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...GOOD BOATING WEATHER AS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM
MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL
OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL
WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR
FRIDAY. AGAIN HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50
PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271740
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

130 PM UPDATE...

LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD TO WHICH THE HRRR HAS TRENDED
WELL...PERHAPS AN HOUR OFF. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW APPLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFFSHORE ALONG AN ELONGATED
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL ENERGY REARWARD OF THE
NEARLY-STACKED LOW SE OF NEWFOUNDLAND SWEEP ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND.

FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARDS A RAIN-BAND PUSHING S OUT OF MAINE ALONG A
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT. COLLOCATED WITH A STOUT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK-BUILDING LOW AHEAD OF WHICH DEEP-LAYER
FORCING IS INVOKED HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HRRR TRENDS AS WE GO
INTO EVENING. LIKELY TO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY E OF THE CT-
RIVER VALLEY. PUNCH OF COLDER AIR S/SW AS WINDS TURN BLUSTERY OUT
OF THE N/NE. MORE DETAILS IN THE /TONIGHT/ DISCUSSION BELOW.

SO FOR TODAY...ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS WHICH WOULD
YIELD SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. TEMPERATURES KEPT AT BELOW-SEASONABLE LEVELS
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-50S...COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ALONG THE COAST. SADLY NOT VERY SPRING-LIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF MAKES ITS CLOSET APPROACH TO
S NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...THEN STARTS TO ROTATE BACK OUT TO
SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
GETS INTO A PATTERN OF DECREASING MOISTURE. IN TURN...THIS MEANS A
LOWER RISK FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ENOUGH...AND WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WHERE SEABREEZES COULD
DEVELOP. THAT WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
COASTS. AT THIS TIME...THINKING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH/COASTAL LOW ON THURS/FRIDAY BRINGS BELOW NORMAL
  TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES ALLOWING FOR BRIEF RIDGING ON WED. STILL
WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP
TROUGH BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE
NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL THE 00Z
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A STRONGER OH VLY/MID ATLC UPPER LOW THUS
LEADING TO A FARTHER WESTWARD SURFACE TRACK THURSDAY.  THE 00Z GFS
IS LOOKING LIKE A DEEP EXTREME WITH ITS UPR LOW THOUGH...WITH THE
GEFS MEAN AND NEW ECMWF SUPPORTING MORE MODERATE DEPTH. THEREFORE
BELIEVE GFS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC/EC/UKMET. ONCE THE SYSTEMS PHASE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD.

DETAILS...

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP
AND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER STALLING THE
LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TRENDED TOWARDS THE
CONSISTENT EC WHICH STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...YET SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEN PREV RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND
FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL SYSTEM. ALSO KNOCKED
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

* MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY IS LOOKING WARM BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES AS
PATTERN WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE THURS/FRI SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /TILL 0Z WEDNESDAY/...

18Z UPDATE...

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR CIGS MAINLY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH -SHRA...ACROSS E MA / RI...DEVELOPING
TOWARDS LATER AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...CONCLUDING BY 6Z. LOW-
RISK IFR FOR CAPE. NW-WINDS BACKING N-NE BECOMING BLUSTERY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CIGS IMPROVE TO LOW-END VFR. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST. REMAINS
BLUSTERY OUT N TURNING NW.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK NE TOWARDS EVENING WITH BETTER SHRA
CHANCES.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF COASTLINE.
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /TILL TUESDAY EVENING/...

130 PM UPDATE...

GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT A WEAK SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST LENDING TO SOME VARIANCE IN THE WIND AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS THE DOMINANT FLOW WILL BE NW WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS. SEAS LIKELY TO ENHANCE...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS S ALONG WHICH SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE...WIND GUSTS INCREASE OUT OF THE N WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALES. THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO MORNING DIMINISHING THROUGH
TUESDAY. SMALL-CRAFTS CONTINUE...BUT MAY NEED TO EXPAND AND ARE
EVALUATING THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. WAVES BUILDING 6-8 FEET ON
THE E-OUTER WATERS.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...GOOD BOATING WEATHER AS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM
MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL
OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL
WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR
FRIDAY. AGAIN HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50
PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 271448
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1048 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALREADY QUICKLY FILLING IN AS THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET/EXCEEDED. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE EARLIER BREAKS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SARATOGA
REGION.

THIS MORNING/S 12Z KALY SOUNDING REVEALED DEEPER MOISTURE...AND A
WEAKER CAP IN PLACE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHICH...IN
COMBINATION WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...SHOULD HELP PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MORE NUMEROUS COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

SKY COVER SHOULD TEND TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY REACH THEIR MAXES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE FALLING ONCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN WHERE EVEN HIGHER GUSTS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION AS LOWER CIGS WERE UPSTREAM ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF TODAY INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND INTO THE TERRAIN WHERE KPSF IS
LOCATED. A LITTLE LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 271448
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1048 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALREADY QUICKLY FILLING IN AS THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET/EXCEEDED. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE EARLIER BREAKS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SARATOGA
REGION.

THIS MORNING/S 12Z KALY SOUNDING REVEALED DEEPER MOISTURE...AND A
WEAKER CAP IN PLACE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHICH...IN
COMBINATION WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...SHOULD HELP PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MORE NUMEROUS COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

SKY COVER SHOULD TEND TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY REACH THEIR MAXES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE FALLING ONCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN WHERE EVEN HIGHER GUSTS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION AS LOWER CIGS WERE UPSTREAM ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF TODAY INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND INTO THE TERRAIN WHERE KPSF IS
LOCATED. A LITTLE LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 271448
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1048 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALREADY QUICKLY FILLING IN AS THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET/EXCEEDED. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE EARLIER BREAKS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SARATOGA
REGION.

THIS MORNING/S 12Z KALY SOUNDING REVEALED DEEPER MOISTURE...AND A
WEAKER CAP IN PLACE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHICH...IN
COMBINATION WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...SHOULD HELP PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MORE NUMEROUS COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

SKY COVER SHOULD TEND TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY REACH THEIR MAXES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE FALLING ONCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN WHERE EVEN HIGHER GUSTS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION AS LOWER CIGS WERE UPSTREAM ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF TODAY INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND INTO THE TERRAIN WHERE KPSF IS
LOCATED. A LITTLE LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 271448
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1048 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALREADY QUICKLY FILLING IN AS THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET/EXCEEDED. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE EARLIER BREAKS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SARATOGA
REGION.

THIS MORNING/S 12Z KALY SOUNDING REVEALED DEEPER MOISTURE...AND A
WEAKER CAP IN PLACE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHICH...IN
COMBINATION WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...SHOULD HELP PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MORE NUMEROUS COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.

SKY COVER SHOULD TEND TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY REACH THEIR MAXES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE FALLING ONCE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN WHERE EVEN HIGHER GUSTS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION AS LOWER CIGS WERE UPSTREAM ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF TODAY INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND INTO THE TERRAIN WHERE KPSF IS
LOCATED. A LITTLE LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271408
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
ELONGATED TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL ENERGY REARWARD
OF THE NEARLY-STACKED LOW SE OF NEWFOUNDLAND SWEEP ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND. MAIN FOCUS IS TOWARDS EVENING AS THE LOW BACKBUILDS INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. ACCOMPANYING STOUT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND UPPER-
LEVEL JET STREAK WILL INVOKE STRONG FORCING ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HRRR TRENDS AS WE GO INTO EVENING.
LIKELY TO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY E OF THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
PUNCH OF COLDER AIR S/SW AS WINDS TURN BLUSTERY OUT OF THE N/NE.
MORE DETAILS IN THE /TONIGHT/ DISCUSSION BELOW.

SO FOR TODAY...ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS WHICH WOULD
YIELD SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. TEMPERATURES KEPT AT BELOW-SEASONABLE LEVELS
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-50S...COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ALONG THE COAST. SADLY NOT VERY SPRING-LIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF MAKES ITS CLOSET APPROACH TO
S NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...THEN STARTS TO ROTATE BACK OUT TO
SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
GETS INTO A PATTERN OF DECREASING MOISTURE. IN TURN...THIS MEANS A
LOWER RISK FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ENOUGH...AND WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WHERE SEABREEZES COULD
DEVELOP. THAT WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
COASTS. AT THIS TIME...THINKING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH/COASTAL LOW ON THURS/FRIDAY BRINGS BELOW NORMAL
  TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES ALLOWING FOR BRIEF RIDGING ON WED. STILL
WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP
TROUGH BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE
NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL THE 00Z
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A STRONGER OH VLY/MID ATLC UPPER LOW THUS
LEADING TO A FARTHER WESTWARD SURFACE TRACK THURSDAY.  THE 00Z GFS
IS LOOKING LIKE A DEEP EXTREME WITH ITS UPR LOW THOUGH...WITH THE
GEFS MEAN AND NEW ECMWF SUPPORTING MORE MODERATE DEPTH. THEREFORE
BELIEVE GFS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC/EC/UKMET. ONCE THE SYSTEMS PHASE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD.

DETAILS...

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP
AND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER STALLING THE
LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TRENDED TOWARDS THE
CONSISTENT EC WHICH STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...YET SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEN PREV RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND
FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL SYSTEM. ALSO KNOCKED
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

* MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY IS LOOKING WARM BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES AS
PATTERN WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE THURS/FRI SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /TILL 0Z WEDNESDAY/...

14Z UPDATE...

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR CIGS MAINLY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH -SHRA...ACROSS E MA / RI...DEVELOPING
TOWARDS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. LOW-RISK IFR FOR CAPE.
NW-WINDS BACKING N-NE BECOMING BLUSTERY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CIGS IMPROVE TO LOW-END VFR. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST. REMAINS
BLUSTERY OUT N TURNING NW.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK NE TOWARDS EVENING WITH BETTER SHRA
CHANCES.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF COASTLINE.
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /TILL TUESDAY EVENING/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY A AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST. THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER WEST WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...GOOD BOATING WEATHER AS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM
MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL
OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL
WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR
FRIDAY. AGAIN HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50
PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271408
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
ELONGATED TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRETCHED MID-LEVEL ENERGY REARWARD
OF THE NEARLY-STACKED LOW SE OF NEWFOUNDLAND SWEEP ACROSS S NEW
ENGLAND. MAIN FOCUS IS TOWARDS EVENING AS THE LOW BACKBUILDS INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. ACCOMPANYING STOUT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND UPPER-
LEVEL JET STREAK WILL INVOKE STRONG FORCING ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HRRR TRENDS AS WE GO INTO EVENING.
LIKELY TO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY E OF THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
PUNCH OF COLDER AIR S/SW AS WINDS TURN BLUSTERY OUT OF THE N/NE.
MORE DETAILS IN THE /TONIGHT/ DISCUSSION BELOW.

SO FOR TODAY...ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS WHICH WOULD
YIELD SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. TEMPERATURES KEPT AT BELOW-SEASONABLE LEVELS
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-50S...COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ALONG THE COAST. SADLY NOT VERY SPRING-LIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF MAKES ITS CLOSET APPROACH TO
S NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...THEN STARTS TO ROTATE BACK OUT TO
SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
GETS INTO A PATTERN OF DECREASING MOISTURE. IN TURN...THIS MEANS A
LOWER RISK FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ENOUGH...AND WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WHERE SEABREEZES COULD
DEVELOP. THAT WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
COASTS. AT THIS TIME...THINKING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH/COASTAL LOW ON THURS/FRIDAY BRINGS BELOW NORMAL
  TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES ALLOWING FOR BRIEF RIDGING ON WED. STILL
WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP
TROUGH BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE
NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL THE 00Z
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A STRONGER OH VLY/MID ATLC UPPER LOW THUS
LEADING TO A FARTHER WESTWARD SURFACE TRACK THURSDAY.  THE 00Z GFS
IS LOOKING LIKE A DEEP EXTREME WITH ITS UPR LOW THOUGH...WITH THE
GEFS MEAN AND NEW ECMWF SUPPORTING MORE MODERATE DEPTH. THEREFORE
BELIEVE GFS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC/EC/UKMET. ONCE THE SYSTEMS PHASE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD.

DETAILS...

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP
AND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER STALLING THE
LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TRENDED TOWARDS THE
CONSISTENT EC WHICH STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...YET SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEN PREV RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND
FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL SYSTEM. ALSO KNOCKED
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

* MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY IS LOOKING WARM BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES AS
PATTERN WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE THURS/FRI SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /TILL 0Z WEDNESDAY/...

14Z UPDATE...

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW-END VFR CIGS MAINLY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH -SHRA...ACROSS E MA / RI...DEVELOPING
TOWARDS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. LOW-RISK IFR FOR CAPE.
NW-WINDS BACKING N-NE BECOMING BLUSTERY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CIGS IMPROVE TO LOW-END VFR. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST. REMAINS
BLUSTERY OUT N TURNING NW.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK NE TOWARDS EVENING WITH BETTER SHRA
CHANCES.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF COASTLINE.
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /TILL TUESDAY EVENING/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY A AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST. THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER WEST WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...GOOD BOATING WEATHER AS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM
MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL
OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL
WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR
FRIDAY. AGAIN HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50
PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 271123
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. KENX RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTH FROM THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION DOWN TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR
MOST AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION AS LOWER CIGS WERE UPSTREAM ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF TODAY INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND INTO THE TERRAIN WHERE KPSF IS
LOCATED. A LITTLE LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 271123
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. KENX RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTH FROM THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION DOWN TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR
MOST AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION AS LOWER CIGS WERE UPSTREAM ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF TODAY INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND INTO THE TERRAIN WHERE KPSF IS
LOCATED. A LITTLE LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 271123
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. KENX RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTH FROM THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION DOWN TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR
MOST AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION AS LOWER CIGS WERE UPSTREAM ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF TODAY INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND INTO THE TERRAIN WHERE KPSF IS
LOCATED. A LITTLE LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 271123
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. KENX RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTH FROM THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION DOWN TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR
MOST AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION AS LOWER CIGS WERE UPSTREAM ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF TODAY INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND INTO THE TERRAIN WHERE KPSF IS
LOCATED. A LITTLE LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. FIRST
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW TRIGGERING OFF THE SCT
SHOWERS OUT WEST. COULD SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE INSERTED THAT INTO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAIN LATE THE
AFTERNOON...CONFINED TO THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL CLOUDS BLANKETED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ONCE AGAIN. THERE
WERE SOME BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF MA.
TEMPERATURES WERE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY FALL. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE A QUICK DROP OF A FEW DEGREES...THEN RISE AGAIN AS THE CLOUDS
RETURN.

RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES
THIS GUIDANCE SUITE. AS SUCH WILL USE A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO
PROVIDE THE BASE OF THIS FORECAST...THEN ADD DETAILS FROM HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WHERE PRACTICAL.

DEEP UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MARITIMES MOVES EVEN FARTHER
WEST TODAY...AND INDUCE A SURFACE FUJIWARA EFFECT NEAR THE
MARITIMES. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE SOUTH
AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CIRCULATION. THESE BURSTS OF
ENERGY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT VARIOUS
TIMES THOUGH TODAY. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES SHOULD ARRIVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THUS THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN MA.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND MAINLY OVERCAST
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF MAKES ITS CLOSET APPROACH TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...THEN STARTS TO ROTATE BACK OUT
TO SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND GETS INTO A PATTERN OF DECREASING MOISTURE. IN TURN...THIS
MEANS A LOWER RISK FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ENOUGH...AND WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WHERE SEABREEZES COULD
DEVELOP. THAT WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
COASTS. AT THIS TIME...THINKING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH/COASTAL LOW ON THURS/FRIDAY BRINGS BELOW NORMAL
  TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES ALLOWING FOR BRIEF RIDGING ON WED. STILL
WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP
TROUGH BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE
NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL THE 00Z
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A STRONGER OH VLY/MID ATLC UPPER LOW THUS
LEADING TO A FARTHER WESTWARD SURFACE TRACK THURSDAY.  THE 00Z GFS
IS LOOKING LIKE A DEEP EXTREME WITH ITS UPR LOW THOUGH...WITH THE
GEFS MEAN AND NEW ECMWF SUPPORTING MORE MODERATE DEPTH. THEREFORE
BELIEVE GFS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC/EC/UKMET. ONCE THE SYSTEMS PHASE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD.

DETAILS...

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP
AND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER STALLING THE
LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TRENDED TOWARDS THE
CONSISTENT EC WHICH STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...YET SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEN PREV RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND
FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL SYSTEM. ALSO KNOCKED
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

* MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY IS LOOKING WARM BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES AS
PATTERN WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE THURS/FRI SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. COULD SEE AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
SEABREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAVY SHOWER MAY DISRUPT THE
WIND BRIEFLY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF COASTLINE.
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY A AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST. THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER WEST WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...GOOD BOATING WEATHER AS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM
MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL
OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL
WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR
FRIDAY. AGAIN HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50
PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. FIRST
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW TRIGGERING OFF THE SCT
SHOWERS OUT WEST. COULD SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE INSERTED THAT INTO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAIN LATE THE
AFTERNOON...CONFINED TO THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL CLOUDS BLANKETED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ONCE AGAIN. THERE
WERE SOME BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF MA.
TEMPERATURES WERE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY FALL. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE A QUICK DROP OF A FEW DEGREES...THEN RISE AGAIN AS THE CLOUDS
RETURN.

RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES
THIS GUIDANCE SUITE. AS SUCH WILL USE A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO
PROVIDE THE BASE OF THIS FORECAST...THEN ADD DETAILS FROM HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WHERE PRACTICAL.

DEEP UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MARITIMES MOVES EVEN FARTHER
WEST TODAY...AND INDUCE A SURFACE FUJIWARA EFFECT NEAR THE
MARITIMES. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE SOUTH
AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CIRCULATION. THESE BURSTS OF
ENERGY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT VARIOUS
TIMES THOUGH TODAY. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES SHOULD ARRIVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THUS THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN MA.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND MAINLY OVERCAST
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF MAKES ITS CLOSET APPROACH TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...THEN STARTS TO ROTATE BACK OUT
TO SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND GETS INTO A PATTERN OF DECREASING MOISTURE. IN TURN...THIS
MEANS A LOWER RISK FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ENOUGH...AND WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WHERE SEABREEZES COULD
DEVELOP. THAT WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
COASTS. AT THIS TIME...THINKING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH/COASTAL LOW ON THURS/FRIDAY BRINGS BELOW NORMAL
  TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES ALLOWING FOR BRIEF RIDGING ON WED. STILL
WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP
TROUGH BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE
NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL THE 00Z
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A STRONGER OH VLY/MID ATLC UPPER LOW THUS
LEADING TO A FARTHER WESTWARD SURFACE TRACK THURSDAY.  THE 00Z GFS
IS LOOKING LIKE A DEEP EXTREME WITH ITS UPR LOW THOUGH...WITH THE
GEFS MEAN AND NEW ECMWF SUPPORTING MORE MODERATE DEPTH. THEREFORE
BELIEVE GFS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC/EC/UKMET. ONCE THE SYSTEMS PHASE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD.

DETAILS...

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP
AND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER STALLING THE
LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TRENDED TOWARDS THE
CONSISTENT EC WHICH STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...YET SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEN PREV RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND
FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL SYSTEM. ALSO KNOCKED
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

* MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY IS LOOKING WARM BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES AS
PATTERN WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE THURS/FRI SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. COULD SEE AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
SEABREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAVY SHOWER MAY DISRUPT THE
WIND BRIEFLY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF COASTLINE.
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY A AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST. THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER WEST WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...GOOD BOATING WEATHER AS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM
MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL
OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL
WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR
FRIDAY. AGAIN HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50
PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 271029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. KENX RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTH FROM THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION DOWN TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR
MOST AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 271029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. KENX RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTH FROM THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION DOWN TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR
MOST AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 271029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. KENX RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTH FROM THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION DOWN TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR
MOST AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 271029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. KENX RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTH FROM THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION DOWN TOWARDS THE CAPITAL REGION.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR
MOST AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 270835
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. WHILE MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN DRY SO FAR THIS
MORNING...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON KENX RADAR
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...AND THESE ARE SLOWING
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR MOST
AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 270835
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. WHILE MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN DRY SO FAR THIS
MORNING...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON KENX RADAR
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...AND THESE ARE SLOWING
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR MOST
AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 270835
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. WHILE MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN DRY SO FAR THIS
MORNING...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON KENX RADAR
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...AND THESE ARE SLOWING
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR MOST
AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 270835
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. WHILE MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN DRY SO FAR THIS
MORNING...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON KENX RADAR
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...AND THESE ARE SLOWING
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR MOST
AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 270835
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TODAY.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO WRAP BACK ALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND UPSTATE NY. WHILE MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN DRY SO FAR THIS
MORNING...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON KENX RADAR
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...AND THESE ARE SLOWING
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...BACK TOWARDS THE MAINE SEACOAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND OCCASIONAL FOR MOST
AREAS...AND RAIN INTENSITY LOOKS VERY LIGHT. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
NEAR ZERO...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS OR SRN GREENS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S...BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP. EVEN IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BY LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...SKY COVER LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY.

WITH COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO ABOUT 800
HPA OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...ALTHOUGH HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE 40S. THIS IS STILL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH WEAK RIDGING STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE VALLEY AREAS. MINS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MOST AREAS LOOK TO WIND UP PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. IT
SHOULD MIX UP TO ABOUT 800 HPA ONCE AGAIN...BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING...IT WILL BE
BREEZY ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SO PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
SOME IMPORTANT DETAILS ON THIS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE AT 500 HPA OVER OUR
AREA. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LESS WIND
THAN TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND FOR WED
NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH
PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  THE
ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET/NOGAPS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS GEFS INDICATE THE
COASTAL LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST POSITION TO LIMITS ITS IMPACT ACROSS
THE REGION.  THE 1.5PVU TRACE FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF WHILE
OFFER SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TWO WAVES /ONE COMING ASHORE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE AND THE WELL DEFINED FOUR CORNERS UPPER
LOW/ WILL PHASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE KEY FACTOR APPEARS
TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SITUATED FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE NON-GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH THE GFS NOT ONLY WEAKER BUT DISPLACED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC.  SO WE WILL LOWER POPS A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND IN LINE PER THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE/COLLABORATION.  THANK
YOU TO SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE.

RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD/CREST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY WITH A RETURN TO SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  FOLLOWING A NON-GFS APPROACH...A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD NOT BE A BAD START TO THE MONTH FOR THE
REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS PLENTY OF
CLOUDS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS AT
5 TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL START TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL NOT HAVING FALLEN FOR NEARLY A WEEK...FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...NW WINDS
APPEAR LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPS IN PLACE MAY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEK AT THE
CURRENT TIME.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURNING LATER THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS INFLUENCES FROM A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL GENERALLY SLOWLY RECEDE OR
HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY LIMITED SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS SNOW PACK IS
RATHER SMALL...SO IT/S IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION
WILL BE RATHER MINOR.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
242 AM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL CLOUDS BLANKETED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ONCE AGAIN. THERE
WERE SOME BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF MA.
TEMPERATURES WERE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY FALL. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE A QUICK DROP OF A FEW DEGREES...THEN RISE AGAIN AS THE CLOUDS
RETURN.

RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES
THIS GUIDANCE SUITE. AS SUCH WILL USE A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO
PROVIDE THE BASE OF THIS FORECAST...THEN ADD DETAILS FROM HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WHERE PRACTICAL.

DEEP UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MARITIMES MOVES EVEN FARTHER
WEST TODAY...AND INDUCE A SURFACE FUJIWARA EFFECT NEAR THE
MARITIMES. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE SOUTH
AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CIRCULATION. THESE BURSTS OF
ENERGY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT VARIOUS
TIMES THOUGH TODAY. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES SHOULD ARRIVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THUS THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN MA.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND MAINLY OVERCAST
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF MAKES ITS CLOSET APPROACH TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...THEN STARTS TO ROTATE BACK OUT
TO SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND GETS INTO A PATTERN OF DECREASING MOISTURE. IN TURN...THIS
MEANS A LOWER RISK FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ENOUGH...AND WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WHERE SEABREEZES COULD
DEVELOP. THAT WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
COASTS. AT THIS TIME...THINKING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH/COASTAL LOW ON THURS/FRIDAY BRINGS BELOW NORMAL
  TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES ALLOWING FOR BRIEF RIDGING ON WED. STILL
WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP
TROUGH BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE
NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL THE 00Z
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A STRONGER OH VLY/MID ATLC UPPER LOW THUS
LEADING TO A FARTHER WESTWARD SURFACE TRACK THURSDAY.  THE 00Z GFS
IS LOOKING LIKE A DEEP EXTREME WITH ITS UPR LOW THOUGH...WITH THE
GEFS MEAN AND NEW ECMWF SUPPORTING MORE MODERATE DEPTH. THEREFORE
BELIEVE GFS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC/EC/UKMET. ONCE THE SYSTEMS PHASE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD.

DETAILS...

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP
AND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER STALLING THE
LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TRENDED TOWARDS THE
CONSISTENT EC WHICH STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...YET SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEN PREV RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND
FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL SYSTEM. ALSO KNOCKED
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

* MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY IS LOOKING WARM BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES AS
PATTERN WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE THURS/FRI SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF COASTLINE.
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY A AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST. THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER WEST WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...GOOD BOATING WEATHER AS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM
MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL
OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL
WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR
FRIDAY. AGAIN HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50
PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
242 AM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL CLOUDS BLANKETED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ONCE AGAIN. THERE
WERE SOME BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF MA.
TEMPERATURES WERE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY FALL. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE A QUICK DROP OF A FEW DEGREES...THEN RISE AGAIN AS THE CLOUDS
RETURN.

RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES
THIS GUIDANCE SUITE. AS SUCH WILL USE A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO
PROVIDE THE BASE OF THIS FORECAST...THEN ADD DETAILS FROM HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WHERE PRACTICAL.

DEEP UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MARITIMES MOVES EVEN FARTHER
WEST TODAY...AND INDUCE A SURFACE FUJIWARA EFFECT NEAR THE
MARITIMES. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE SOUTH
AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CIRCULATION. THESE BURSTS OF
ENERGY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT VARIOUS
TIMES THOUGH TODAY. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES SHOULD ARRIVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THUS THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN MA.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND MAINLY OVERCAST
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF MAKES ITS CLOSET APPROACH TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...THEN STARTS TO ROTATE BACK OUT
TO SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND GETS INTO A PATTERN OF DECREASING MOISTURE. IN TURN...THIS
MEANS A LOWER RISK FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ENOUGH...AND WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WHERE SEABREEZES COULD
DEVELOP. THAT WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
COASTS. AT THIS TIME...THINKING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH/COASTAL LOW ON THURS/FRIDAY BRINGS BELOW NORMAL
  TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES ALLOWING FOR BRIEF RIDGING ON WED. STILL
WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP
TROUGH BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE
NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL THE 00Z
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A STRONGER OH VLY/MID ATLC UPPER LOW THUS
LEADING TO A FARTHER WESTWARD SURFACE TRACK THURSDAY.  THE 00Z GFS
IS LOOKING LIKE A DEEP EXTREME WITH ITS UPR LOW THOUGH...WITH THE
GEFS MEAN AND NEW ECMWF SUPPORTING MORE MODERATE DEPTH. THEREFORE
BELIEVE GFS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND TRENDED
TOWARDS WPC/EC/UKMET. ONCE THE SYSTEMS PHASE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD.

DETAILS...

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP
AND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER STALLING THE
LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TRENDED TOWARDS THE
CONSISTENT EC WHICH STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK...YET SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEN PREV RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND
FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHER
POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL SYSTEM. ALSO KNOCKED
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

* MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY IS LOOKING WARM BUT STILL UNCERTAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES AS
PATTERN WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE THURS/FRI SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF COASTLINE.
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY A AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST. THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER WEST WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...GOOD BOATING WEATHER AS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM
MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL
OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL
WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR
FRIDAY. AGAIN HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50
PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270643
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
243 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
242 AM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL CLOUDS BLANKETED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ONCE AGAIN. THERE
WERE SOME BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF MA.
TEMPERATURES WERE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY FALL. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE A QUICK DROP OF A FEW DEGREES...THEN RISE AGAIN AS THE CLOUDS
RETURN.

RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES
THIS GUIDANCE SUITE. AS SUCH WILL USE A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO
PROVIDE THE BASE OF THIS FORECAST...THEN ADD DETAILS FROM HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WHERE PRACTICAL.

DEEP UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MARITIMES MOVES EVEN FARTHER
WEST TODAY...AND INDUCE A SURFACE FUJIWARA EFFECT NEAR THE
MARITIMES. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE SOUTH
AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CIRCULATION. THESE BURSTS OF
ENERGY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT VARIOUS
TIMES THOUGH TODAY. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES SHOULD ARRIVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THUS THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN MA.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND MAINLY OVERCAST
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF MAKES ITS CLOSET APPROACH TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...THEN STARTS TO ROTATE BACK OUT
TO SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND GETS INTO A PATTERN OF DECREASING MOISTURE. IN TURN...THIS
MEANS A LOWER RISK FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ENOUGH...AND WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WHERE SEABREEZES COULD
DEVELOP. THAT WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
COASTS. AT THIS TIME...THINKING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND MILD ON WEDNESDAY
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW SURFACE/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO MAKE A BRIEF VISIT TO OUR AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD SPRING DAY...WITH SOME
DIURNAL STRATOCU. LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...POTENTIALLY
AROUND 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY SPRINGFIELD TO HARTFORD
AREAS. WITH ANTICIPATED LIGHT SURFACE FLOW...SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED
TO KICK IN AND WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO...OR KEEP TEMPS
IN...THE 50S NEARSHORE.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. INITIALLY
EXPECTING THURSDAY DAYTIME TO BE MAINLY DRY...BUT UPPER RIDGE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE LOW TO EMERGE OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES ON WED...AND TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
DURING THU. THE BIG QUESTION FOR OUR AREA IS WHERE THIS LOW
TRACKS AFTERWARDS. 12Z GFS TAKES THE LOW CENTER OVER 40N/70W
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
OUR AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF TAKE THE LOW OUT TO
SEA...GIVING OUR AREA SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

WITH THIS LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BE FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE AND
PREVIOUS BOX FORECAST FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THU BUT INCREASING CLOUDS...AND CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT INTO FRI
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE ON THU BUT THEN BELOW
NORMAL DURING FRIDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTCOME FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF DEEP
CUTOFF LOW/SURFACE LOW TRACK.  FOR SAT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER
LOW MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT FOR GFS IT MAY BE JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.  AT THIS TIME WILL
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.  THEN MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...WHERE A SHORT WAVE COULD BRING LIGHT
SHOWERS TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A WASHOUT WITH IT BEING MORE
PROBABLE THAT MUCH OF THE DAY IS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE ON WED...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED DURING THU.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY A AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
WILL LIKELY ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHORTLY. STILL TRYING TO
DETERMINE THE AREAS TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EMERGES FROM THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE
CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH
WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270643
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
243 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
242 AM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL CLOUDS BLANKETED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ONCE AGAIN. THERE
WERE SOME BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF MA.
TEMPERATURES WERE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY FALL. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE A QUICK DROP OF A FEW DEGREES...THEN RISE AGAIN AS THE CLOUDS
RETURN.

RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES
THIS GUIDANCE SUITE. AS SUCH WILL USE A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO
PROVIDE THE BASE OF THIS FORECAST...THEN ADD DETAILS FROM HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WHERE PRACTICAL.

DEEP UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MARITIMES MOVES EVEN FARTHER
WEST TODAY...AND INDUCE A SURFACE FUJIWARA EFFECT NEAR THE
MARITIMES. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE SOUTH
AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CIRCULATION. THESE BURSTS OF
ENERGY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT VARIOUS
TIMES THOUGH TODAY. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES SHOULD ARRIVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THUS THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN MA.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND MAINLY OVERCAST
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF MAKES ITS CLOSET APPROACH TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...THEN STARTS TO ROTATE BACK OUT
TO SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND GETS INTO A PATTERN OF DECREASING MOISTURE. IN TURN...THIS
MEANS A LOWER RISK FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ENOUGH...AND WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WHERE SEABREEZES COULD
DEVELOP. THAT WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
COASTS. AT THIS TIME...THINKING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND MILD ON WEDNESDAY
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW SURFACE/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO MAKE A BRIEF VISIT TO OUR AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD SPRING DAY...WITH SOME
DIURNAL STRATOCU. LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...POTENTIALLY
AROUND 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY SPRINGFIELD TO HARTFORD
AREAS. WITH ANTICIPATED LIGHT SURFACE FLOW...SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED
TO KICK IN AND WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO...OR KEEP TEMPS
IN...THE 50S NEARSHORE.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. INITIALLY
EXPECTING THURSDAY DAYTIME TO BE MAINLY DRY...BUT UPPER RIDGE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE LOW TO EMERGE OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES ON WED...AND TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
DURING THU. THE BIG QUESTION FOR OUR AREA IS WHERE THIS LOW
TRACKS AFTERWARDS. 12Z GFS TAKES THE LOW CENTER OVER 40N/70W
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
OUR AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF TAKE THE LOW OUT TO
SEA...GIVING OUR AREA SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

WITH THIS LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BE FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE AND
PREVIOUS BOX FORECAST FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THU BUT INCREASING CLOUDS...AND CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT INTO FRI
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE ON THU BUT THEN BELOW
NORMAL DURING FRIDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTCOME FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF DEEP
CUTOFF LOW/SURFACE LOW TRACK.  FOR SAT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER
LOW MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT FOR GFS IT MAY BE JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.  AT THIS TIME WILL
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.  THEN MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...WHERE A SHORT WAVE COULD BRING LIGHT
SHOWERS TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A WASHOUT WITH IT BEING MORE
PROBABLE THAT MUCH OF THE DAY IS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE ON WED...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED DURING THU.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY A AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
WILL LIKELY ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHORTLY. STILL TRYING TO
DETERMINE THE AREAS TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EMERGES FROM THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE
CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH
WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270643
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
243 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
242 AM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL CLOUDS BLANKETED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ONCE AGAIN. THERE
WERE SOME BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF MA.
TEMPERATURES WERE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY FALL. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE A QUICK DROP OF A FEW DEGREES...THEN RISE AGAIN AS THE CLOUDS
RETURN.

RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES
THIS GUIDANCE SUITE. AS SUCH WILL USE A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO
PROVIDE THE BASE OF THIS FORECAST...THEN ADD DETAILS FROM HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WHERE PRACTICAL.

DEEP UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MARITIMES MOVES EVEN FARTHER
WEST TODAY...AND INDUCE A SURFACE FUJIWARA EFFECT NEAR THE
MARITIMES. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE SOUTH
AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CIRCULATION. THESE BURSTS OF
ENERGY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT VARIOUS
TIMES THOUGH TODAY. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES SHOULD ARRIVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THUS THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN MA.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND MAINLY OVERCAST
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF MAKES ITS CLOSET APPROACH TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...THEN STARTS TO ROTATE BACK OUT
TO SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND GETS INTO A PATTERN OF DECREASING MOISTURE. IN TURN...THIS
MEANS A LOWER RISK FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ENOUGH...AND WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WHERE SEABREEZES COULD
DEVELOP. THAT WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
COASTS. AT THIS TIME...THINKING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND MILD ON WEDNESDAY
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW SURFACE/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO MAKE A BRIEF VISIT TO OUR AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD SPRING DAY...WITH SOME
DIURNAL STRATOCU. LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...POTENTIALLY
AROUND 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY SPRINGFIELD TO HARTFORD
AREAS. WITH ANTICIPATED LIGHT SURFACE FLOW...SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED
TO KICK IN AND WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO...OR KEEP TEMPS
IN...THE 50S NEARSHORE.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. INITIALLY
EXPECTING THURSDAY DAYTIME TO BE MAINLY DRY...BUT UPPER RIDGE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE LOW TO EMERGE OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES ON WED...AND TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
DURING THU. THE BIG QUESTION FOR OUR AREA IS WHERE THIS LOW
TRACKS AFTERWARDS. 12Z GFS TAKES THE LOW CENTER OVER 40N/70W
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
OUR AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF TAKE THE LOW OUT TO
SEA...GIVING OUR AREA SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

WITH THIS LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BE FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE AND
PREVIOUS BOX FORECAST FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THU BUT INCREASING CLOUDS...AND CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT INTO FRI
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE ON THU BUT THEN BELOW
NORMAL DURING FRIDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTCOME FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF DEEP
CUTOFF LOW/SURFACE LOW TRACK.  FOR SAT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER
LOW MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT FOR GFS IT MAY BE JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.  AT THIS TIME WILL
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.  THEN MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...WHERE A SHORT WAVE COULD BRING LIGHT
SHOWERS TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A WASHOUT WITH IT BEING MORE
PROBABLE THAT MUCH OF THE DAY IS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE ON WED...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED DURING THU.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY A AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
WILL LIKELY ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHORTLY. STILL TRYING TO
DETERMINE THE AREAS TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EMERGES FROM THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE
CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH
WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270643
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
243 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
242 AM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL CLOUDS BLANKETED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ONCE AGAIN. THERE
WERE SOME BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF MA.
TEMPERATURES WERE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY FALL. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE A QUICK DROP OF A FEW DEGREES...THEN RISE AGAIN AS THE CLOUDS
RETURN.

RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES
THIS GUIDANCE SUITE. AS SUCH WILL USE A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO
PROVIDE THE BASE OF THIS FORECAST...THEN ADD DETAILS FROM HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WHERE PRACTICAL.

DEEP UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MARITIMES MOVES EVEN FARTHER
WEST TODAY...AND INDUCE A SURFACE FUJIWARA EFFECT NEAR THE
MARITIMES. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE SOUTH
AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CIRCULATION. THESE BURSTS OF
ENERGY WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT VARIOUS
TIMES THOUGH TODAY. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES SHOULD ARRIVE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THUS THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN MA.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND MAINLY OVERCAST
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF MAKES ITS CLOSET APPROACH TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...THEN STARTS TO ROTATE BACK OUT
TO SEA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND GETS INTO A PATTERN OF DECREASING MOISTURE. IN TURN...THIS
MEANS A LOWER RISK FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
ENOUGH...AND WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WHERE SEABREEZES COULD
DEVELOP. THAT WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
COASTS. AT THIS TIME...THINKING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND MILD ON WEDNESDAY
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW SURFACE/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO MAKE A BRIEF VISIT TO OUR AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD SPRING DAY...WITH SOME
DIURNAL STRATOCU. LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...POTENTIALLY
AROUND 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY SPRINGFIELD TO HARTFORD
AREAS. WITH ANTICIPATED LIGHT SURFACE FLOW...SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED
TO KICK IN AND WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO...OR KEEP TEMPS
IN...THE 50S NEARSHORE.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. INITIALLY
EXPECTING THURSDAY DAYTIME TO BE MAINLY DRY...BUT UPPER RIDGE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE LOW TO EMERGE OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES ON WED...AND TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
DURING THU. THE BIG QUESTION FOR OUR AREA IS WHERE THIS LOW
TRACKS AFTERWARDS. 12Z GFS TAKES THE LOW CENTER OVER 40N/70W
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
OUR AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF TAKE THE LOW OUT TO
SEA...GIVING OUR AREA SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

WITH THIS LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BE FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE AND
PREVIOUS BOX FORECAST FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THU BUT INCREASING CLOUDS...AND CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT INTO FRI
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE ON THU BUT THEN BELOW
NORMAL DURING FRIDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTCOME FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF DEEP
CUTOFF LOW/SURFACE LOW TRACK.  FOR SAT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER
LOW MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT FOR GFS IT MAY BE JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.  AT THIS TIME WILL
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.  THEN MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...WHERE A SHORT WAVE COULD BRING LIGHT
SHOWERS TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A WASHOUT WITH IT BEING MORE
PROBABLE THAT MUCH OF THE DAY IS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE ON WED...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED DURING THU.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY A AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
WILL LIKELY ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHORTLY. STILL TRYING TO
DETERMINE THE AREAS TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EMERGES FROM THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE
CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH
WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK/NMB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KALY 270525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 270525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 270525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 270525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 270525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 270525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KGFL-
KALB-KPSF. SOME SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KGFL WHERE WE WILL PLACE A
TEMPO GROUP.

OVERCAST VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. WE WILL BEGIN WITH A PROB30 GROUP
NORTH OF KPOU IN THE MORNING THEN PLACE SHOWERS AS A DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KPOU MAY REMAIN DRY DUE
TO DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM
THE CATSKILLS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 270515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 270515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 270515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 270515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 270515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 270515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE REGION NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE
THESE CLOUDS...KENX RADAR DOESN/T SHOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE
CURRENT TIME...WITH ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES NEAR THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC FOR A
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 270224
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1024 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1024 PM EDT...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOME
TWEAKING OF THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. WITH THE SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL LOW STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION...IT WILL BE RATHER
DIFFICULT TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS TONIGHT.

A DRY EVENING IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...PERHAPS
MIXED IN WITH SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...AND AROUND 40 IN THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 270224
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1024 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1024 PM EDT...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOME
TWEAKING OF THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. WITH THE SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL LOW STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION...IT WILL BE RATHER
DIFFICULT TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS TONIGHT.

A DRY EVENING IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...PERHAPS
MIXED IN WITH SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...AND AROUND 40 IN THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270218
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1018 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1018 PM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL CLOUDS BLANKETED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ONCE AGAIN.
TWEAKED THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OF THE ONGOING FORECAST TO REFLECT
THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TO SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZES HAVE ENDED. A NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. THE OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...INSULATING US AND KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT..UPPER LOW MOVES EVEN FARTHER TO THE
WEST...RESIDING JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING
THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THROUGH THE DAY THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES. THEN
WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
* SUNSHINE AND MILD ON WEDNESDAY
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CENTER OF CLOSED LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE DURING
TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL DECREASING MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. THE
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT MAY STILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN EASTERN MA AND RI. OTHERWISE EXPECTING SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH
LIGHT FLOW SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG EAST AND SOUTH
SHORELINES.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW SURFACE/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO MAKE A BRIEF VISIT TO OUR AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD SPRING DAY...WITH SOME
DIURNAL STRATOCU. LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...POTENTIALLY
AROUND 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY SPRINGFIELD TO HARTFORD
AREAS. WITH ANTICIPATED LIGHT SURFACE FLOW...SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED
TO KICK IN AND WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO...OR KEEP TEMPS
IN...THE 50S NEARSHORE.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. INITIALLY
EXPECTING THURSDAY DAYTIME TO BE MAINLY DRY...BUT UPPER RIDGE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE LOW TO EMERGE OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES ON WED...AND TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
DURING THU. THE BIG QUESTION FOR OUR AREA IS WHERE THIS LOW
TRACKS AFTERWARDS. 12Z GFS TAKES THE LOW CENTER OVER 40N/70W
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
OUR AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF TAKE THE LOW OUT TO
SEA...GIVING OUR AREA SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

WITH THIS LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BE FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE AND
PREVIOUS BOX FORECAST FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THU BUT INCREASING CLOUDS...AND CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT INTO FRI
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE ON THU BUT THEN BELOW
NORMAL DURING FRIDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTCOME FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF DEEP
CUTOFF LOW/SURFACE LOW TRACK.  FOR SAT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER
LOW MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT FOR GFS IT MAY BE JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.  AT THIS TIME WILL
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.  THEN MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...WHERE A SHORT WAVE COULD BRING LIGHT
SHOWERS TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A WASHOUT WITH IT BEING MORE
PROBABLE THAT MUCH OF THE DAY IS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE ON WED...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED DURING THU.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. VERY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WINDS AND SEAS START TO CREEP UP
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THAT SCA CONDITIONS
ARE PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
TUESDAY...BUT SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING FOR
SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EMERGES FROM THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE
CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH
WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/RLG/NMB
MARINE...RLG/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270218
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1018 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1018 PM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL CLOUDS BLANKETED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ONCE AGAIN.
TWEAKED THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OF THE ONGOING FORECAST TO REFLECT
THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TO SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZES HAVE ENDED. A NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. THE OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...INSULATING US AND KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT..UPPER LOW MOVES EVEN FARTHER TO THE
WEST...RESIDING JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING
THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THROUGH THE DAY THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES. THEN
WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
* SUNSHINE AND MILD ON WEDNESDAY
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CENTER OF CLOSED LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE DURING
TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL DECREASING MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. THE
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT MAY STILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN EASTERN MA AND RI. OTHERWISE EXPECTING SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH
LIGHT FLOW SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG EAST AND SOUTH
SHORELINES.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW SURFACE/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO MAKE A BRIEF VISIT TO OUR AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD SPRING DAY...WITH SOME
DIURNAL STRATOCU. LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...POTENTIALLY
AROUND 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY SPRINGFIELD TO HARTFORD
AREAS. WITH ANTICIPATED LIGHT SURFACE FLOW...SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED
TO KICK IN AND WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO...OR KEEP TEMPS
IN...THE 50S NEARSHORE.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. INITIALLY
EXPECTING THURSDAY DAYTIME TO BE MAINLY DRY...BUT UPPER RIDGE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE LOW TO EMERGE OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES ON WED...AND TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
DURING THU. THE BIG QUESTION FOR OUR AREA IS WHERE THIS LOW
TRACKS AFTERWARDS. 12Z GFS TAKES THE LOW CENTER OVER 40N/70W
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
OUR AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF TAKE THE LOW OUT TO
SEA...GIVING OUR AREA SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

WITH THIS LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BE FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE AND
PREVIOUS BOX FORECAST FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THU BUT INCREASING CLOUDS...AND CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT INTO FRI
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE ON THU BUT THEN BELOW
NORMAL DURING FRIDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTCOME FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF DEEP
CUTOFF LOW/SURFACE LOW TRACK.  FOR SAT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER
LOW MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT FOR GFS IT MAY BE JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.  AT THIS TIME WILL
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.  THEN MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...WHERE A SHORT WAVE COULD BRING LIGHT
SHOWERS TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A WASHOUT WITH IT BEING MORE
PROBABLE THAT MUCH OF THE DAY IS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE ON WED...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED DURING THU.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. VERY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WINDS AND SEAS START TO CREEP UP
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THAT SCA CONDITIONS
ARE PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
TUESDAY...BUT SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING FOR
SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EMERGES FROM THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE
CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH
WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/RLG/NMB
MARINE...RLG/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270218
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1018 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1018 PM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL CLOUDS BLANKETED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ONCE AGAIN.
TWEAKED THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OF THE ONGOING FORECAST TO REFLECT
THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TO SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZES HAVE ENDED. A NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. THE OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...INSULATING US AND KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT..UPPER LOW MOVES EVEN FARTHER TO THE
WEST...RESIDING JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING
THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THROUGH THE DAY THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES. THEN
WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
* SUNSHINE AND MILD ON WEDNESDAY
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CENTER OF CLOSED LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE DURING
TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL DECREASING MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. THE
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT MAY STILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN EASTERN MA AND RI. OTHERWISE EXPECTING SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH
LIGHT FLOW SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG EAST AND SOUTH
SHORELINES.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW SURFACE/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO MAKE A BRIEF VISIT TO OUR AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD SPRING DAY...WITH SOME
DIURNAL STRATOCU. LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...POTENTIALLY
AROUND 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY SPRINGFIELD TO HARTFORD
AREAS. WITH ANTICIPATED LIGHT SURFACE FLOW...SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED
TO KICK IN AND WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO...OR KEEP TEMPS
IN...THE 50S NEARSHORE.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. INITIALLY
EXPECTING THURSDAY DAYTIME TO BE MAINLY DRY...BUT UPPER RIDGE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE LOW TO EMERGE OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES ON WED...AND TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
DURING THU. THE BIG QUESTION FOR OUR AREA IS WHERE THIS LOW
TRACKS AFTERWARDS. 12Z GFS TAKES THE LOW CENTER OVER 40N/70W
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
OUR AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF TAKE THE LOW OUT TO
SEA...GIVING OUR AREA SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

WITH THIS LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BE FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE AND
PREVIOUS BOX FORECAST FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THU BUT INCREASING CLOUDS...AND CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT INTO FRI
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE ON THU BUT THEN BELOW
NORMAL DURING FRIDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTCOME FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF DEEP
CUTOFF LOW/SURFACE LOW TRACK.  FOR SAT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER
LOW MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT FOR GFS IT MAY BE JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.  AT THIS TIME WILL
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.  THEN MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...WHERE A SHORT WAVE COULD BRING LIGHT
SHOWERS TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A WASHOUT WITH IT BEING MORE
PROBABLE THAT MUCH OF THE DAY IS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE ON WED...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED DURING THU.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. VERY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WINDS AND SEAS START TO CREEP UP
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THAT SCA CONDITIONS
ARE PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
TUESDAY...BUT SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING FOR
SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EMERGES FROM THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE
CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH
WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/RLG/NMB
MARINE...RLG/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270218
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1018 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1018 PM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL CLOUDS BLANKETED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ONCE AGAIN.
TWEAKED THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OF THE ONGOING FORECAST TO REFLECT
THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TO SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZES HAVE ENDED. A NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. THE OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...INSULATING US AND KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT..UPPER LOW MOVES EVEN FARTHER TO THE
WEST...RESIDING JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING
THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THROUGH THE DAY THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES. THEN
WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
* SUNSHINE AND MILD ON WEDNESDAY
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CENTER OF CLOSED LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE DURING
TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL DECREASING MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. THE
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT MAY STILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN EASTERN MA AND RI. OTHERWISE EXPECTING SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH
LIGHT FLOW SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG EAST AND SOUTH
SHORELINES.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW SURFACE/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO MAKE A BRIEF VISIT TO OUR AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD SPRING DAY...WITH SOME
DIURNAL STRATOCU. LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...POTENTIALLY
AROUND 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY SPRINGFIELD TO HARTFORD
AREAS. WITH ANTICIPATED LIGHT SURFACE FLOW...SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED
TO KICK IN AND WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO...OR KEEP TEMPS
IN...THE 50S NEARSHORE.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. INITIALLY
EXPECTING THURSDAY DAYTIME TO BE MAINLY DRY...BUT UPPER RIDGE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE LOW TO EMERGE OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES ON WED...AND TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
DURING THU. THE BIG QUESTION FOR OUR AREA IS WHERE THIS LOW
TRACKS AFTERWARDS. 12Z GFS TAKES THE LOW CENTER OVER 40N/70W
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
OUR AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF TAKE THE LOW OUT TO
SEA...GIVING OUR AREA SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

WITH THIS LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BE FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE AND
PREVIOUS BOX FORECAST FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THU BUT INCREASING CLOUDS...AND CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT INTO FRI
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE ON THU BUT THEN BELOW
NORMAL DURING FRIDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTCOME FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF DEEP
CUTOFF LOW/SURFACE LOW TRACK.  FOR SAT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER
LOW MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT FOR GFS IT MAY BE JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.  AT THIS TIME WILL
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.  THEN MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...WHERE A SHORT WAVE COULD BRING LIGHT
SHOWERS TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A WASHOUT WITH IT BEING MORE
PROBABLE THAT MUCH OF THE DAY IS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE ON WED...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED DURING THU.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. VERY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WINDS AND SEAS START TO CREEP UP
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THAT SCA CONDITIONS
ARE PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
TUESDAY...BUT SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING FOR
SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EMERGES FROM THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE
CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH
WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/RLG/NMB
MARINE...RLG/NMB




000
FXUS61 KALY 262342
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
742 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOME
TWEAKING OF THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/MID-HUDSON
VALLEY. WITH THE SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL LOW STILL LINGERING ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION...IT WILL BE RATHER DIFFICULT TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS TONIGHT.

A DRY EVENING IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...PERHAPS MIXED IN WITH SOME WET
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...AND AROUND 40 IN THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/IRL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 262342
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
742 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOME
TWEAKING OF THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/MID-HUDSON
VALLEY. WITH THE SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL LOW STILL LINGERING ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION...IT WILL BE RATHER DIFFICULT TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS TONIGHT.

A DRY EVENING IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...PERHAPS MIXED IN WITH SOME WET
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...AND AROUND 40 IN THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/IRL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 262342
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
742 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOME
TWEAKING OF THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/MID-HUDSON
VALLEY. WITH THE SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL LOW STILL LINGERING ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION...IT WILL BE RATHER DIFFICULT TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS TONIGHT.

A DRY EVENING IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...PERHAPS MIXED IN WITH SOME WET
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...AND AROUND 40 IN THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/IRL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 262342
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
742 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOME
TWEAKING OF THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/MID-HUDSON
VALLEY. WITH THE SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL LOW STILL LINGERING ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION...IT WILL BE RATHER DIFFICULT TO
BREAK UP THE CLOUDS TONIGHT.

A DRY EVENING IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...PERHAPS MIXED IN WITH SOME WET
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...AND AROUND 40 IN THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A CEILING OF AROUND 5-7 KFT. OVERCAST CEILINGS MAY YIELD TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS AT KPOU...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT BEGINNING AT 14Z FOR KPOU AS A
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH ASSOCIATED WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGFL...WHERE -SHRA WAS INDICATED...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE DAY
MONDAY...AND GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/IRL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262332
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
732 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...
AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ALONG EAST COASTAL LOCALES
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT STILL HAD A GOOD 20 DEGREE TEMEPRATURE
DEWPOINT SPREAD AS OF 7 PM SO NOT MUCH RAIN WOULD MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND.

OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT... INSULATING US AND KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT..UPPER LOW MOVES EVEN FARTHER TO THE
WEST...RESIDING JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING
THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THROUGH THE DAY THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES. THEN
WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
* SUNSHINE AND MILD ON WEDNESDAY
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CENTER OF CLOSED LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE DURING
TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL DECREASING MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. THE
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT MAY STILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN EASTERN MA AND RI. OTHERWISE EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH LIGHT FLOW SEABREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG EAST AND SOUTH SHORELINES.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW SURFACE/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO MAKE A BRIEF VISIT TO OUR AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD SPRING DAY...WITH SOME
DIURNAL STRATOCU. LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...POTENTIALLY AROUND
70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY SPRINGFIELD TO HARTFORD AREAS.
WITH ANTICIPATED LIGHT SURFACE FLOW...SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
KICK IN AND WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO...OR KEEP TEMPS
IN...THE 50S NEARSHORE.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. INITIALLY
EXPECTING THURSDAY DAYTIME TO BE MAINLY DRY...BUT UPPER RIDGE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE LOW TO EMERGE OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES ON WED...AND TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
DURING THU. THE BIG QUESTION FOR OUR AREA IS WHERE THIS LOW
TRACKS AFTERWARDS. 12Z GFS TAKES THE LOW CENTER OVER 40N/70W
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
OUR AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF TAKE THE LOW OUT TO
SEA...GIVING OUR AREA SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

WITH THIS LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BE FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE AND
PREVIOUS BOX FORECAST FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THU BUT INCREASING CLOUDS...AND CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT INTO FRI
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE ON THU BUT THEN BELOW
NORMAL DURING FRIDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTCOME FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF DEEP
CUTOFF LOW/SURFACE LOW TRACK.  FOR SAT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER
LOW MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT FOR GFS IT MAY BE JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.  AT THIS TIME WILL
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.  THEN MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...WHERE A SHORT WAVE COULD BRING LIGHT
SHOWERS TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A WASHOUT WITH IT BEING MORE
PROBABLE THAT MUCH OF THE DAY IS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. ALONG THE
COASTLINE...LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT NW THIS
EVENING.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WIND DIRECTION THIS EVENING...LIGHT VARIABLE/ONSHORE
WIND EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT NW.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE ON WED...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED DURING THU.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. VERY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WINDS AND SEAS START TO CREEP UP
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THAT SCA CONDITIONS
ARE PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
TUESDAY...BUT SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING FOR
SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EMERGES FROM THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE
CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH
WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/NMB
NEAR TERM...RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...RLG/NMB
MARINE...RLG/NMB




000
FXUS61 KALY 262018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE GIANT UPPER AIR LOW...STILL PARKED
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
YIELD SIMILAR WEATHER ON MONDAY. FINALLY...BY TUESDAY...THIS UPPER
LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY GET SHOVED TO THE EAST FOR GOOD...REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 415 PM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD MOST IF NOT ALL OF ALL
OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THERE OCCASIONAL PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT VERY LIMITED. SO FAR...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS
DEVELOPING BY EVENING....MORE LIKE SPRINKLES.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM UPSTREAM. THEY HUNG AROUND MOST PLACES LAST
NIGHT SO DO NOT SEE WHY THEY WOULD NECESSARILY BREAK UP TONIGHT. SO
WE WILL LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...WE WILL GO SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MACHINE GUIDANCE
IN MOST PLACES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.





&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 262018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE GIANT UPPER AIR LOW...STILL PARKED
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
YIELD SIMILAR WEATHER ON MONDAY. FINALLY...BY TUESDAY...THIS UPPER
LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY GET SHOVED TO THE EAST FOR GOOD...REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 415 PM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD MOST IF NOT ALL OF ALL
OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THERE OCCASIONAL PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT VERY LIMITED. SO FAR...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS
DEVELOPING BY EVENING....MORE LIKE SPRINKLES.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM UPSTREAM. THEY HUNG AROUND MOST PLACES LAST
NIGHT SO DO NOT SEE WHY THEY WOULD NECESSARILY BREAK UP TONIGHT. SO
WE WILL LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...WE WILL GO SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MACHINE GUIDANCE
IN MOST PLACES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.





&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 262018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE GIANT UPPER AIR LOW...STILL PARKED
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
YIELD SIMILAR WEATHER ON MONDAY. FINALLY...BY TUESDAY...THIS UPPER
LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY GET SHOVED TO THE EAST FOR GOOD...REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 415 PM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD MOST IF NOT ALL OF ALL
OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THERE OCCASIONAL PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT VERY LIMITED. SO FAR...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS
DEVELOPING BY EVENING....MORE LIKE SPRINKLES.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM UPSTREAM. THEY HUNG AROUND MOST PLACES LAST
NIGHT SO DO NOT SEE WHY THEY WOULD NECESSARILY BREAK UP TONIGHT. SO
WE WILL LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...WE WILL GO SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MACHINE GUIDANCE
IN MOST PLACES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.





&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 262018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE GIANT UPPER AIR LOW...STILL PARKED
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
YIELD SIMILAR WEATHER ON MONDAY. FINALLY...BY TUESDAY...THIS UPPER
LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY GET SHOVED TO THE EAST FOR GOOD...REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 415 PM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD MOST IF NOT ALL OF ALL
OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THERE OCCASIONAL PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT VERY LIMITED. SO FAR...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS
DEVELOPING BY EVENING....MORE LIKE SPRINKLES.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM UPSTREAM. THEY HUNG AROUND MOST PLACES LAST
NIGHT SO DO NOT SEE WHY THEY WOULD NECESSARILY BREAK UP TONIGHT. SO
WE WILL LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...WE WILL GO SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MACHINE GUIDANCE
IN MOST PLACES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.





&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 262018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE GIANT UPPER AIR LOW...STILL PARKED
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
YIELD SIMILAR WEATHER ON MONDAY. FINALLY...BY TUESDAY...THIS UPPER
LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY GET SHOVED TO THE EAST FOR GOOD...REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 415 PM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD MOST IF NOT ALL OF ALL
OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THERE OCCASIONAL PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT VERY LIMITED. SO FAR...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS
DEVELOPING BY EVENING....MORE LIKE SPRINKLES.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM UPSTREAM. THEY HUNG AROUND MOST PLACES LAST
NIGHT SO DO NOT SEE WHY THEY WOULD NECESSARILY BREAK UP TONIGHT. SO
WE WILL LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...WE WILL GO SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MACHINE GUIDANCE
IN MOST PLACES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.





&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 262018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE GIANT UPPER AIR LOW...STILL PARKED
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
YIELD SIMILAR WEATHER ON MONDAY. FINALLY...BY TUESDAY...THIS UPPER
LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY GET SHOVED TO THE EAST FOR GOOD...REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 415 PM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD MOST IF NOT ALL OF ALL
OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THERE OCCASIONAL PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT VERY LIMITED. SO FAR...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS
DEVELOPING BY EVENING....MORE LIKE SPRINKLES.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM UPSTREAM. THEY HUNG AROUND MOST PLACES LAST
NIGHT SO DO NOT SEE WHY THEY WOULD NECESSARILY BREAK UP TONIGHT. SO
WE WILL LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...WE WILL GO SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MACHINE GUIDANCE
IN MOST PLACES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.





&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 262018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE GIANT UPPER AIR LOW...STILL PARKED
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
YIELD SIMILAR WEATHER ON MONDAY. FINALLY...BY TUESDAY...THIS UPPER
LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY GET SHOVED TO THE EAST FOR GOOD...REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 415 PM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD MOST IF NOT ALL OF ALL
OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THERE OCCASIONAL PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT VERY LIMITED. SO FAR...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS
DEVELOPING BY EVENING....MORE LIKE SPRINKLES.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM UPSTREAM. THEY HUNG AROUND MOST PLACES LAST
NIGHT SO DO NOT SEE WHY THEY WOULD NECESSARILY BREAK UP TONIGHT. SO
WE WILL LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...WE WILL GO SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MACHINE GUIDANCE
IN MOST PLACES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.





&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 262018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE GIANT UPPER AIR LOW...STILL PARKED
IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH EVENING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
YIELD SIMILAR WEATHER ON MONDAY. FINALLY...BY TUESDAY...THIS UPPER
LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY GET SHOVED TO THE EAST FOR GOOD...REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 415 PM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE NOW OVERSPREAD MOST IF NOT ALL OF ALL
OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THERE OCCASIONAL PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT VERY LIMITED. SO FAR...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS
DEVELOPING BY EVENING....MORE LIKE SPRINKLES.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF THEM UPSTREAM. THEY HUNG AROUND MOST PLACES LAST
NIGHT SO DO NOT SEE WHY THEY WOULD NECESSARILY BREAK UP TONIGHT. SO
WE WILL LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN NOT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...WE WILL GO SLIGHTLY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MACHINE GUIDANCE
IN MOST PLACES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL WILL LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST...5-10 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER EVENING GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL THWART US FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH IT...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
ANY HEATING OF THE DAY...TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON MONDAY (AS OPPOSED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ONES). THESE WOULD
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD CERTAINLY GET
WET TOO.

IN FACT...EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY...55-60 IN THE
VALLEYS....UPPER 40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY BUT THE LOW WILL STILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER WITH A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHOWERS. LOWS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40.


TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO SCOUR OUT. GIVEN IT IS NEARLY MAY WITH A 60+ DEGREE ANGLE SUN AT
SOLAR NOON...WE LEAN A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTICALLY THAT WE SHOULD AT
LEAST GET SOME DECENT BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BUMP ON TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN
THE 55-60 RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S VALLEYS. IT WILL
TURN A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING 10
TO 20 MPH. WITH A PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN AREAS
LOOK TO GET CHILLY ONCE MORE...TANKING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL BOTTOM OUT
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITY
LOCALITIES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY AS THAT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER US ALONG WITH H850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT +5C.
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...DAYTIME HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 70
IN THE VALLEYS...60S MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE
NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME CLOUDS INCREASES. LOOK
FOR LOWS COOLING TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.





&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION AS A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HELPS DEEPEN A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A
COASTAL LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD...TRACKING NORTHEAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
PLAYER...WHICH IS HAVING DIFFICULTY BEING RESOLVED BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE...IS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUTOFF
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
AND EAST THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND IF
ANY INTERACTION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW.

IF SOME PHASING OCCURS...ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD BE THROWN BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. IF LITTLE TO NO PHASING OCCURS...THE COASTAL LOW
WILL MOVE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THERE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH AND WITH CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
IS INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPYING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH A LARGE CUTOFF LOW
PARKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...WELL BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING VERY HIGH LEVELS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 75-80 PERCENT RANGE SO ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY.
RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MODERATE RANGE (40-50 PERCENT).
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.

TUESDAY...IT TURNS PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES LOOK A BIT LOWER THAN MONDAY...
DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE WIND WILL A BIT GUSTY POSSIBLY UP TO 25 MPH.
BY TUESDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BE 5 DAYS WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE WEATHER HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH RATHER LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SHOULD A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AND CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM



000
FXUS61 KBOX 262010
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
345 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW THAT HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INCHING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...WITH A 20 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREAD NOT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAIN IS
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH VERY
LITTLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE OVERCAST SKIES. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPROVEMENT INTO TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE DYING OFF WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. OVERCAST SKIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...INSULATING US AND KEEPING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT..UPPER LOW MOVES EVEN FARTHER TO THE
WEST...RESIDING JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING
THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THROUGH THE DAY THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES. THEN
WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
* SUNSHINE AND MILD ON WEDNESDAY
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CENTER OF CLOSED LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE DURING
TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL DECREASING MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. THE
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT MAY STILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN EASTERN MA AND RI. OTHERWISE EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH LIGHT FLOW SEABREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG EAST AND SOUTH SHORELINES.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW SURFACE/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO MAKE A BRIEF VISIT TO OUR AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD SPRING DAY...WITH SOME
DIURNAL STRATOCU. LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...POTENTIALLY AROUND
70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY SPRINGFIELD TO HARTFORD AREAS.
WITH ANTICIPATED LIGHT SURFACE FLOW...SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
KICK IN AND WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO...OR KEEP TEMPS
IN...THE 50S NEARSHORE.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. INITIALLY
EXPECTING THURSDAY DAYTIME TO BE MAINLY DRY...BUT UPPER RIDGE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE LOW TO EMERGE OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES ON WED...AND TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
DURING THU. THE BIG QUESTION FOR OUR AREA IS WHERE THIS LOW
TRACKS AFTERWARDS. 12Z GFS TAKES THE LOW CENTER OVER 40N/70W
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
OUR AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF TAKE THE LOW OUT TO
SEA...GIVING OUR AREA SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

WITH THIS LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BE FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE AND
PREVIOUS BOX FORECAST FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THU BUT INCREASING CLOUDS...AND CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT INTO FRI
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE ON THU BUT THEN BELOW
NORMAL DURING FRIDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTCOME FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF DEEP
CUTOFF LOW/SURFACE LOW TRACK.  FOR SAT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER
LOW MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT FOR GFS IT MAY BE JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.  AT THIS TIME WILL
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.  THEN MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...WHERE A SHORT WAVE COULD BRING LIGHT
SHOWERS TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A WASHOUT WITH IT BEING MORE
PROBABLE THAT MUCH OF THE DAY IS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE ON WED...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED DURING THU.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. VERY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WINDS AND SEAS START TO CREEP UP
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THAT SCA CONDITIONS
ARE PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
TUESDAY...BUT SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING FOR
SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EMERGES FROM THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE
CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH
WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/NMB
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...RLG/NMB
MARINE...RLG/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 262010
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING
MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
345 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW THAT HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INCHING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...WITH A 20 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREAD NOT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAIN IS
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH VERY
LITTLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE OVERCAST SKIES. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPROVEMENT INTO TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE DYING OFF WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. OVERCAST SKIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...INSULATING US AND KEEPING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT..UPPER LOW MOVES EVEN FARTHER TO THE
WEST...RESIDING JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING
THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THROUGH THE DAY THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES. THEN
WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
* SUNSHINE AND MILD ON WEDNESDAY
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CENTER OF CLOSED LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE DURING
TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL DECREASING MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. THE
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT MAY STILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN EASTERN MA AND RI. OTHERWISE EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH LIGHT FLOW SEABREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG EAST AND SOUTH SHORELINES.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW SURFACE/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO MAKE A BRIEF VISIT TO OUR AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD SPRING DAY...WITH SOME
DIURNAL STRATOCU. LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...POTENTIALLY AROUND
70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY SPRINGFIELD TO HARTFORD AREAS.
WITH ANTICIPATED LIGHT SURFACE FLOW...SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
KICK IN AND WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO...OR KEEP TEMPS
IN...THE 50S NEARSHORE.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. INITIALLY
EXPECTING THURSDAY DAYTIME TO BE MAINLY DRY...BUT UPPER RIDGE AND
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE LOW TO EMERGE OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES ON WED...AND TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTLINE
DURING THU. THE BIG QUESTION FOR OUR AREA IS WHERE THIS LOW
TRACKS AFTERWARDS. 12Z GFS TAKES THE LOW CENTER OVER 40N/70W
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
OUR AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF TAKE THE LOW OUT TO
SEA...GIVING OUR AREA SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.

WITH THIS LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BE FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE AND
PREVIOUS BOX FORECAST FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THU BUT INCREASING CLOUDS...AND CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT INTO FRI
NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE ON THU BUT THEN BELOW
NORMAL DURING FRIDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTCOME FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF DEEP
CUTOFF LOW/SURFACE LOW TRACK.  FOR SAT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER
LOW MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT FOR GFS IT MAY BE JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.  AT THIS TIME WILL
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.  THEN MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...WHERE A SHORT WAVE COULD BRING LIGHT
SHOWERS TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A WASHOUT WITH IT BEING MORE
PROBABLE THAT MUCH OF THE DAY IS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE ON WED...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED DURING THU.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. VERY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WINDS AND SEAS START TO CREEP UP
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THAT SCA CONDITIONS
ARE PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
TUESDAY...BUT SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING FOR
SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EMERGES FROM THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE
CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH
WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/NMB
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...RLG/NMB
MARINE...RLG/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261947
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
345 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW THAT HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INCHING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...WITH A 20 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREAD NOT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAIN IS
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH VERY
LITTLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE OVERCAST SKIES. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPROVEMENT INTO TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE DYING OFF WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. OVERCAST SKIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...INSULATING US AND KEEPING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT..UPPER LOW MOVES EVEN FARTHER TO THE
WEST...RESIDING JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING
THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THROUGH THE DAY THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES. THEN
WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. VERY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WINDS AND SEAS START TO CREEP UP
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...DUNTEN/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261947
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
345 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW THAT HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INCHING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...WITH A 20 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREAD NOT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAIN IS
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH VERY
LITTLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE OVERCAST SKIES. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPROVEMENT INTO TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE DYING OFF WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. OVERCAST SKIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...INSULATING US AND KEEPING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT..UPPER LOW MOVES EVEN FARTHER TO THE
WEST...RESIDING JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING
THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THROUGH THE DAY THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES. THEN
WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. VERY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WINDS AND SEAS START TO CREEP UP
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...DUNTEN/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261947
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
345 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW THAT HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INCHING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...WITH A 20 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREAD NOT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAIN IS
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH VERY
LITTLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE OVERCAST SKIES. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPROVEMENT INTO TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE DYING OFF WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. OVERCAST SKIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...INSULATING US AND KEEPING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT..UPPER LOW MOVES EVEN FARTHER TO THE
WEST...RESIDING JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING
THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THROUGH THE DAY THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES. THEN
WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. VERY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WINDS AND SEAS START TO CREEP UP
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...DUNTEN/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261947
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
345 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW THAT HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INCHING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...WITH A 20 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREAD NOT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAIN IS
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH VERY
LITTLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE OVERCAST SKIES. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPROVEMENT INTO TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE DYING OFF WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. OVERCAST SKIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...INSULATING US AND KEEPING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT..UPPER LOW MOVES EVEN FARTHER TO THE
WEST...RESIDING JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING
THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THROUGH THE DAY THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES. THEN
WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. VERY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WINDS AND SEAS START TO CREEP UP
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...DUNTEN/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261947
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
345 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW THAT HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INCHING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...WITH A 20 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREAD NOT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAIN IS
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH VERY
LITTLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE OVERCAST SKIES. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPROVEMENT INTO TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE DYING OFF WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. OVERCAST SKIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...INSULATING US AND KEEPING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT..UPPER LOW MOVES EVEN FARTHER TO THE
WEST...RESIDING JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING
THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THROUGH THE DAY THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES. THEN
WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. VERY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WINDS AND SEAS START TO CREEP UP
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...DUNTEN/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
156 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INCHING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...WITH A 20 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREAD NOT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAIN IS
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH VERY
LITTLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE OVERCAST SKIES. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPROVEMENT INTO TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE DYING OFF WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. OVERCAST SKIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...INSULATING US AND KEEPING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT..UPPER LOW MOVES EVEN FARTHER TO THE
WEST...RESIDING JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING
THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THROUGH THE DAY THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES. THEN
WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
156 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INCHING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...WITH A 20 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREAD NOT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAIN IS
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH VERY
LITTLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE OVERCAST SKIES. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPROVEMENT INTO TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE DYING OFF WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. OVERCAST SKIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...INSULATING US AND KEEPING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT..UPPER LOW MOVES EVEN FARTHER TO THE
WEST...RESIDING JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING
THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THROUGH THE DAY THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES. THEN
WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
156 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INCHING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...WITH A 20 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREAD NOT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAIN IS
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH VERY
LITTLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE OVERCAST SKIES. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPROVEMENT INTO TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE DYING OFF WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. OVERCAST SKIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...INSULATING US AND KEEPING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT..UPPER LOW MOVES EVEN FARTHER TO THE
WEST...RESIDING JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING
THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THROUGH THE DAY THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES. THEN
WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
156 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
INCHING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...WITH A 20 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREAD NOT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAIN IS
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH VERY
LITTLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE OVERCAST SKIES. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPROVEMENT INTO TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE DYING OFF WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. OVERCAST SKIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...INSULATING US AND KEEPING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT..UPPER LOW MOVES EVEN FARTHER TO THE
WEST...RESIDING JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING
THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THROUGH THE DAY THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.

DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES. THEN
WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 261754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A
LITTLE UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...AS EXPECTED MORE CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE...HAS
HELPED BACKED MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...COULD SPAWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEATING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO REAL DETECTION OF ANY SHOWERS...BUT THE
HRRR INDICATED THE SHOULD POP SOON...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THEREFORE...WHILE ADJUSTING THE NEAR TERM HOURLY GRIDS...LEFT THE
END RESULT THE SAME...CHANCE SHOWERS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS MAINLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY/LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S VALLEY AREAS. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO RISE MUCH HIGHER BUT LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. ONCE
AGAIN...THEY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS.

THE NORTHWEST WIND IS THERE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. LOOK
FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 5-10
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 261754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A
LITTLE UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...AS EXPECTED MORE CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE...HAS
HELPED BACKED MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...COULD SPAWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEATING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO REAL DETECTION OF ANY SHOWERS...BUT THE
HRRR INDICATED THE SHOULD POP SOON...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THEREFORE...WHILE ADJUSTING THE NEAR TERM HOURLY GRIDS...LEFT THE
END RESULT THE SAME...CHANCE SHOWERS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS MAINLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY/LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S VALLEY AREAS. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO RISE MUCH HIGHER BUT LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. ONCE
AGAIN...THEY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS.

THE NORTHWEST WIND IS THERE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. LOOK
FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 5-10
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 261754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A
LITTLE UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...AS EXPECTED MORE CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE...HAS
HELPED BACKED MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...COULD SPAWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEATING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO REAL DETECTION OF ANY SHOWERS...BUT THE
HRRR INDICATED THE SHOULD POP SOON...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THEREFORE...WHILE ADJUSTING THE NEAR TERM HOURLY GRIDS...LEFT THE
END RESULT THE SAME...CHANCE SHOWERS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS MAINLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY/LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S VALLEY AREAS. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO RISE MUCH HIGHER BUT LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. ONCE
AGAIN...THEY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS.

THE NORTHWEST WIND IS THERE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. LOOK
FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 5-10
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 261754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A
LITTLE UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...AS EXPECTED MORE CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE...HAS
HELPED BACKED MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...COULD SPAWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEATING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO REAL DETECTION OF ANY SHOWERS...BUT THE
HRRR INDICATED THE SHOULD POP SOON...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THEREFORE...WHILE ADJUSTING THE NEAR TERM HOURLY GRIDS...LEFT THE
END RESULT THE SAME...CHANCE SHOWERS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS MAINLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY/LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S VALLEY AREAS. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO RISE MUCH HIGHER BUT LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. ONCE
AGAIN...THEY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS.

THE NORTHWEST WIND IS THERE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. LOOK
FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 5-10
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 261754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A
LITTLE UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...AS EXPECTED MORE CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE...HAS
HELPED BACKED MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...COULD SPAWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEATING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO REAL DETECTION OF ANY SHOWERS...BUT THE
HRRR INDICATED THE SHOULD POP SOON...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THEREFORE...WHILE ADJUSTING THE NEAR TERM HOURLY GRIDS...LEFT THE
END RESULT THE SAME...CHANCE SHOWERS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS MAINLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY/LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S VALLEY AREAS. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO RISE MUCH HIGHER BUT LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. ONCE
AGAIN...THEY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS.

THE NORTHWEST WIND IS THERE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. LOOK
FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 5-10
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 261754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A
LITTLE UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...AS EXPECTED MORE CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE...HAS
HELPED BACKED MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...COULD SPAWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEATING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO REAL DETECTION OF ANY SHOWERS...BUT THE
HRRR INDICATED THE SHOULD POP SOON...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THEREFORE...WHILE ADJUSTING THE NEAR TERM HOURLY GRIDS...LEFT THE
END RESULT THE SAME...CHANCE SHOWERS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS MAINLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY/LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S VALLEY AREAS. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO RISE MUCH HIGHER BUT LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. ONCE
AGAIN...THEY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS.

THE NORTHWEST WIND IS THERE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. LOOK
FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 5-10
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD OVC-BKN CU/SC ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. CIGS WILL
BE VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF) FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES...BUT EVEN IF SHOWERS
OCCUR...EXPECT VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH
OR -SHRA AT THESE TAF SITES. AT KPOU...VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING AT 14Z MONDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT
KGFL...AT 7 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KTS TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 261717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A
LITTLE UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 115 PM EDT...AS EXPECTED MORE CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE...HAS
HELPED BACKED MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...COULD SPAWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEATING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO REAL DETECTION OF ANY SHOWERS...BUT THE
HRRR INDICATED THE SHOULD POP SOON...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THEREFORE...WHILE ADJUSTING THE NEAR TERM HOURLY GRIDS...LEFT THE
END RESULT THE SAME...CHANCE SHOWERS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS MAINLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY/LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S VALLEY AREAS. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO RISE MUCH HIGHER BUT LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. ONCE
AGAIN...THEY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS.

THE NORTHWEST WIND IS THERE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. LOOK
FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 5-10
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 261717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A
LITTLE UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 115 PM EDT...AS EXPECTED MORE CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE...HAS
HELPED BACKED MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...COULD SPAWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEATING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO REAL DETECTION OF ANY SHOWERS...BUT THE
HRRR INDICATED THE SHOULD POP SOON...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THEREFORE...WHILE ADJUSTING THE NEAR TERM HOURLY GRIDS...LEFT THE
END RESULT THE SAME...CHANCE SHOWERS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS MAINLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY/LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S VALLEY AREAS. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO RISE MUCH HIGHER BUT LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. ONCE
AGAIN...THEY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS.

THE NORTHWEST WIND IS THERE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. LOOK
FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 5-10
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 261717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A
LITTLE UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 115 PM EDT...AS EXPECTED MORE CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN AS A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE...HAS
HELPED BACKED MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS...COULD SPAWN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HEATING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. SO FAR...NO REAL DETECTION OF ANY SHOWERS...BUT THE
HRRR INDICATED THE SHOULD POP SOON...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THEREFORE...WHILE ADJUSTING THE NEAR TERM HOURLY GRIDS...LEFT THE
END RESULT THE SAME...CHANCE SHOWERS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS MAINLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY/LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S VALLEY AREAS. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO RISE MUCH HIGHER BUT LEFT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. ONCE
AGAIN...THEY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS.

THE NORTHWEST WIND IS THERE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. LOOK
FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON TO AVERAGE 5-10
MPH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...CLOUDS ARE HOLDING STRONG OVER THE REGION. SO HAVE
UPDATED THE SKY COVER FORECAST TO INCORPORATE THE CLOUDS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHILE
AREAS OF SUNNY SKIES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MADE MINOR EDITS TO TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE
MARITIMES THE PAST DAY OR SO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION TODAY. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF
ENOUGH SUNSHINE PEEKS THROUGH THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60
THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND IN PARTS OF RI AND SOUTHEASTERN
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES EVEN FURTHER WEST...AND INDUCES
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...BESIDES THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THAT SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...
BUT ONSET TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...CLOUDS ARE HOLDING STRONG OVER THE REGION. SO HAVE
UPDATED THE SKY COVER FORECAST TO INCORPORATE THE CLOUDS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHILE
AREAS OF SUNNY SKIES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MADE MINOR EDITS TO TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE
MARITIMES THE PAST DAY OR SO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION TODAY. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF
ENOUGH SUNSHINE PEEKS THROUGH THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60
THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND IN PARTS OF RI AND SOUTHEASTERN
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES EVEN FURTHER WEST...AND INDUCES
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...BESIDES THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THAT SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...
BUT ONSET TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...CLOUDS ARE HOLDING STRONG OVER THE REGION. SO HAVE
UPDATED THE SKY COVER FORECAST TO INCORPORATE THE CLOUDS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHILE
AREAS OF SUNNY SKIES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MADE MINOR EDITS TO TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE
MARITIMES THE PAST DAY OR SO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION TODAY. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF
ENOUGH SUNSHINE PEEKS THROUGH THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60
THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND IN PARTS OF RI AND SOUTHEASTERN
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES EVEN FURTHER WEST...AND INDUCES
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...BESIDES THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THAT SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...
BUT ONSET TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...CLOUDS ARE HOLDING STRONG OVER THE REGION. SO HAVE
UPDATED THE SKY COVER FORECAST TO INCORPORATE THE CLOUDS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHILE
AREAS OF SUNNY SKIES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MADE MINOR EDITS TO TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE
MARITIMES THE PAST DAY OR SO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION TODAY. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF
ENOUGH SUNSHINE PEEKS THROUGH THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60
THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND IN PARTS OF RI AND SOUTHEASTERN
MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES EVEN FURTHER WEST...AND INDUCES
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...BESIDES THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THAT SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...
BUT ONSET TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 261348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
948 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...STLT PICS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGALND...AND ANOTHER
AREA OVER WESTERN NY. IN BETWEEN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WAS ALSO
MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
THESE CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTHWARD AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO INCREASE FURTHER
DURING THE DAY AS HEATING CASUES CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM EVEN THOSE
AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY CLEAR. PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY
IN GOOD SHAPE CONCERNING CLIOUD COVER WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME
MORE BKN THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE
POPS A BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...THROUGH WESTERN
NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN
THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 261348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
948 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...STLT PICS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGALND...AND ANOTHER
AREA OVER WESTERN NY. IN BETWEEN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WAS ALSO
MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
THESE CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTHWARD AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO INCREASE FURTHER
DURING THE DAY AS HEATING CASUES CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM EVEN THOSE
AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY CLEAR. PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY
IN GOOD SHAPE CONCERNING CLIOUD COVER WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME
MORE BKN THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE
POPS A BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...THROUGH WESTERN
NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN
THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 261348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
948 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...STLT PICS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGALND...AND ANOTHER
AREA OVER WESTERN NY. IN BETWEEN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WAS ALSO
MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
THESE CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTHWARD AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO INCREASE FURTHER
DURING THE DAY AS HEATING CASUES CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM EVEN THOSE
AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY CLEAR. PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY
IN GOOD SHAPE CONCERNING CLIOUD COVER WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME
MORE BKN THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE
POPS A BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...THROUGH WESTERN
NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN
THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 261348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
948 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...STLT PICS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGALND...AND ANOTHER
AREA OVER WESTERN NY. IN BETWEEN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WAS ALSO
MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
THESE CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTHWARD AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO INCREASE FURTHER
DURING THE DAY AS HEATING CASUES CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM EVEN THOSE
AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY CLEAR. PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY
IN GOOD SHAPE CONCERNING CLIOUD COVER WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME
MORE BKN THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE
POPS A BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...THROUGH WESTERN
NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN
THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 261348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
948 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...STLT PICS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGALND...AND ANOTHER
AREA OVER WESTERN NY. IN BETWEEN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WAS ALSO
MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
THESE CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTHWARD AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO INCREASE FURTHER
DURING THE DAY AS HEATING CASUES CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM EVEN THOSE
AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY CLEAR. PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY
IN GOOD SHAPE CONCERNING CLIOUD COVER WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME
MORE BKN THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE
POPS A BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...THROUGH WESTERN
NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN
THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 261348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
948 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...STLT PICS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGALND...AND ANOTHER
AREA OVER WESTERN NY. IN BETWEEN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. IT WAS ALSO
MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
THESE CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTHWARD AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO INCREASE FURTHER
DURING THE DAY AS HEATING CASUES CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM EVEN THOSE
AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY CLEAR. PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY
IN GOOD SHAPE CONCERNING CLIOUD COVER WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME
MORE BKN THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE
POPS A BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...THROUGH WESTERN
NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN
THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS STAYED PUT IS STARTING TO ERODE FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS DAYTIME
HEATING BEGINS. OTHERWISE UPPED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TO ALINE MORE WITH GUIDANCE. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP KEEPING
COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM EARLY THIS MORNING SO WILL LET FROST
ADVISORY GO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE MARITIMES THE PAST DAY OR
SO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR REGION TODAY. THUS
WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE PEEKS THROUGH
THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND IN PARTS OF RI AND SOUTHEASTERN MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES EVEN FURTHER WEST...AND INDUCES
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...BESIDES THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THAT SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...
BUT ONSET TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ017-018.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS STAYED PUT IS STARTING TO ERODE FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS DAYTIME
HEATING BEGINS. OTHERWISE UPPED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TO ALINE MORE WITH GUIDANCE. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP KEEPING
COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM EARLY THIS MORNING SO WILL LET FROST
ADVISORY GO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE MARITIMES THE PAST DAY OR
SO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR REGION TODAY. THUS
WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE PEEKS THROUGH
THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND IN PARTS OF RI AND SOUTHEASTERN MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES EVEN FURTHER WEST...AND INDUCES
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...BESIDES THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THAT SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...
BUT ONSET TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ017-018.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS STAYED PUT IS STARTING TO ERODE FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS DAYTIME
HEATING BEGINS. OTHERWISE UPPED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TO ALINE MORE WITH GUIDANCE. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP KEEPING
COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM EARLY THIS MORNING SO WILL LET FROST
ADVISORY GO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE MARITIMES THE PAST DAY OR
SO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR REGION TODAY. THUS
WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE PEEKS THROUGH
THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND IN PARTS OF RI AND SOUTHEASTERN MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES EVEN FURTHER WEST...AND INDUCES
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...BESIDES THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THAT SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...
BUT ONSET TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ017-018.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS STAYED PUT IS STARTING TO ERODE FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS DAYTIME
HEATING BEGINS. OTHERWISE UPPED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TO ALINE MORE WITH GUIDANCE. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP KEEPING
COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM EARLY THIS MORNING SO WILL LET FROST
ADVISORY GO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE MARITIMES THE PAST DAY OR
SO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR REGION TODAY. THUS
WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE PEEKS THROUGH
THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND IN PARTS OF RI AND SOUTHEASTERN MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES EVEN FURTHER WEST...AND INDUCES
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...BESIDES THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THAT SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...
BUT ONSET TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ017-018.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS STAYED PUT IS STARTING TO ERODE FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS DAYTIME
HEATING BEGINS. OTHERWISE UPPED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TO ALINE MORE WITH GUIDANCE. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP KEEPING
COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM EARLY THIS MORNING SO WILL LET FROST
ADVISORY GO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE MARITIMES THE PAST DAY OR
SO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR REGION TODAY. THUS
WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE PEEKS THROUGH
THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND IN PARTS OF RI AND SOUTHEASTERN MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES EVEN FURTHER WEST...AND INDUCES
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...BESIDES THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THAT SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...
BUT ONSET TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ017-018.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS STAYED PUT IS STARTING TO ERODE FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS DAYTIME
HEATING BEGINS. OTHERWISE UPPED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TO ALINE MORE WITH GUIDANCE. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP KEEPING
COASTAL COMMUNITIES COOLER.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM EARLY THIS MORNING SO WILL LET FROST
ADVISORY GO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE MARITIMES THE PAST DAY OR
SO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR REGION TODAY. THUS
WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE PEEKS THROUGH
THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND IN PARTS OF RI AND SOUTHEASTERN MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES EVEN FURTHER WEST...AND INDUCES
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...BESIDES THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THAT SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...
BUT ONSET TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ017-018.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 261033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...STRATUS WAS SCT-BKN ACROSS THE I90 CORRIDOR
WITH A FEW BREAKS INTO THE DACKS AND MOCLR INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NW CT. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME MORE BKN
THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS A
BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 261033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...STRATUS WAS SCT-BKN ACROSS THE I90 CORRIDOR
WITH A FEW BREAKS INTO THE DACKS AND MOCLR INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NW CT. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME MORE BKN
THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS A
BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 261033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...STRATUS WAS SCT-BKN ACROSS THE I90 CORRIDOR
WITH A FEW BREAKS INTO THE DACKS AND MOCLR INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NW CT. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME MORE BKN
THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS A
BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 261033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...STRATUS WAS SCT-BKN ACROSS THE I90 CORRIDOR
WITH A FEW BREAKS INTO THE DACKS AND MOCLR INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NW CT. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME MORE BKN
THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS A
BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE FROM
THE NORTH.  IN ADDITION...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLEAR NEAR KPOU...THE NORTHERN SITES ARE ALREADY OVC. ALL SITES LOOK
TO SEE BKN-OVC CIGS OF 4-6 KFT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO TOO SMALL TO
ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED BKN-OVC
CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 261027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...STRATUS WAS SCT-BKN ACROSS THE I90 CORRIDOR
WITH A FEW BREAKS INTO THE DACKS AND MOCLR INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NW CT. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME MORE BKN
THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS A
BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THIS FEATURE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 5-
7 KFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF. MEANWHILE...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU
WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS...THANKS TO A WEAK FEATURE
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT ALL SITES...FLYING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW W-NW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO ROTATE BACK
WESTWARD...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STRATOCU CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS....WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS AT 4-6 KFT.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO
TOO SMALL TO ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT : MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT : NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 261027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...STRATUS WAS SCT-BKN ACROSS THE I90 CORRIDOR
WITH A FEW BREAKS INTO THE DACKS AND MOCLR INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NW CT. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME MORE BKN
THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS A
BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THIS FEATURE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 5-
7 KFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF. MEANWHILE...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU
WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS...THANKS TO A WEAK FEATURE
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT ALL SITES...FLYING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW W-NW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO ROTATE BACK
WESTWARD...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STRATOCU CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS....WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS AT 4-6 KFT.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO
TOO SMALL TO ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT : MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT : NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 261027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...STRATUS WAS SCT-BKN ACROSS THE I90 CORRIDOR
WITH A FEW BREAKS INTO THE DACKS AND MOCLR INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NW CT. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME MORE BKN
THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS A
BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THIS FEATURE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 5-
7 KFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF. MEANWHILE...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU
WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS...THANKS TO A WEAK FEATURE
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT ALL SITES...FLYING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW W-NW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO ROTATE BACK
WESTWARD...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STRATOCU CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS....WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS AT 4-6 KFT.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO
TOO SMALL TO ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT : MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT : NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 261027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...STRATUS WAS SCT-BKN ACROSS THE I90 CORRIDOR
WITH A FEW BREAKS INTO THE DACKS AND MOCLR INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NW CT. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THIS CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN SCT-BKN AND BECOME MORE BKN
THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALL COMBINE FOR CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX SUGGEST MORE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS A
BIT. PREVIOUS AFD DETAILS BELOW...

PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THIS FEATURE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 5-
7 KFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF. MEANWHILE...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU
WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS...THANKS TO A WEAK FEATURE
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT ALL SITES...FLYING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW W-NW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO ROTATE BACK
WESTWARD...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STRATOCU CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS....WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS AT 4-6 KFT.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO
TOO SMALL TO ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT : MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT : NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
413 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
254 AM UPDATE...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...CLOUDS WERE PLAYING A
SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
OF AS MUCH AS THEY MIGHT HAVE WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR IN PLACE. FARTHER SOUTH...A FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES
ACROSS NORTHERN CT...AND PORTIONS OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THESE
AREAS RECENTLY CLEARED...BUT IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE
MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST.

06Z MESONET TEMPERATURES SHOWED MANY AREAS WITHIN THE FROST
ADVISORY AREA JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL RANGE WHERE
FROST WOULD DEVELOP. THE EXPECTATION IS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY AND FROST WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE MARITIMES THE PAST DAY OR SO IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR REGION TODAY. THUS WE
WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE PEEKS THROUGH
THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND IN PARTS OF RI AND SOUTHEASTERN MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES EVEN FURTHER WEST...AND INDUCES
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...BESIDES THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THAT SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...
BUT ONSET TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ017-018.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
413 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
254 AM UPDATE...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...CLOUDS WERE PLAYING A
SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
OF AS MUCH AS THEY MIGHT HAVE WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR IN PLACE. FARTHER SOUTH...A FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES
ACROSS NORTHERN CT...AND PORTIONS OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THESE
AREAS RECENTLY CLEARED...BUT IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE
MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST.

06Z MESONET TEMPERATURES SHOWED MANY AREAS WITHIN THE FROST
ADVISORY AREA JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL RANGE WHERE
FROST WOULD DEVELOP. THE EXPECTATION IS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY AND FROST WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE MARITIMES THE PAST DAY OR SO IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR REGION TODAY. THUS WE
WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE PEEKS THROUGH
THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND IN PARTS OF RI AND SOUTHEASTERN MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES EVEN FURTHER WEST...AND INDUCES
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...BESIDES THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THAT SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
* DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL
BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN
STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING
OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE
MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND
TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S
FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW.

* THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING
IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS
AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE
REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS
AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL
SYSTEM.

* THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...
BUT ONSET TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCT SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ017-018.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 260750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THIS FEATURE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 5-
7 KFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF. MEANWHILE...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU
WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS...THANKS TO A WEAK FEATURE
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT ALL SITES...FLYING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW W-NW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO ROTATE BACK
WESTWARD...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STRATOCU CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS....WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS AT 4-6 KFT.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO
TOO SMALL TO ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT : MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT : NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 260750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THIS FEATURE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 5-
7 KFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF. MEANWHILE...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU
WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS...THANKS TO A WEAK FEATURE
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT ALL SITES...FLYING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW W-NW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO ROTATE BACK
WESTWARD...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STRATOCU CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS....WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS AT 4-6 KFT.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO
TOO SMALL TO ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT : MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT : NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 260750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PER THE H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS...A QUASI OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NOAM WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO...TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NOAM AND LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER ON A COOL AND INCREASINGLY
CLOUDY/DAMP SIDE IN THE NEAR TERM /AND SHORT TERM TOO/.

IR SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOWLY EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE SEEN ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...FURTHER UPSTREAM ARE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES UNDERWAY AROUND THE LARGE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SO THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...H850-700 LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN /MAINLY IMPACTING
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90/ THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS EXCELLENT
FORECAST HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS SO LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE A BIT AND REFORM/STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS/SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN MAY YIELD SOME WINTRY MIXTURE YET NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. POPS WILL BE GRADUATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH CHC-SCT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.

A RATHER DAMP...CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY SETTING UP FOR
MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE THE TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER POPS WITH REGARDING TO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN...VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET PROMINENT INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SO A LITTLE
BREEZE WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR THE REGION WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

THE SHORT WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION WITH PRECIP LIKELY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SO THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERRAIN WITH SOME BREAKS
EXPECTED INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL WITH LOWER 40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 30S
FOR THE TERRAIN.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE FURTHER EAST AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL IMPROVE OUR WEATHER OVERALL...NCEP
MODEL SUITE STILL SUGGESTS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS
MAY DELAY OUR SKY COVER IMPROVEMENTS AS WE WILL KEEP VALUES INTO
THE PT-MOCLDY RANGE AT THIS TIME. MOS NUMBERS MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC AS WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE PER PARCEL
DECENT IN THE FORECAST BUFR PROFILES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION...WEAK RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY WEATHER WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...MAINLY 60S FOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR WED NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.  A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WILL BE HEADED NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM REMAINING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE WILL A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAVE ON THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THIS COASTAL SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT SEPARATE AND
SLOWER...BRINGING IT EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. A FEW 00Z GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW THE COASTAL
SFC LOW BRINGING A WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SHOW THIS WILL NOT OCCUR. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN CASE THE DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT OUR REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND GO WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...WITH 60S FOR DURING THE DAY AND MID 30S TO MID 40S AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THIS FEATURE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 5-
7 KFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF. MEANWHILE...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU
WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS...THANKS TO A WEAK FEATURE
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT ALL SITES...FLYING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW W-NW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO ROTATE BACK
WESTWARD...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STRATOCU CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS....WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS AT 4-6 KFT.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO
TOO SMALL TO ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT : MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT : NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...ALONG
WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260654
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
254 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED BOTH EARLY AND LATE THIS WEEK...WITH A
BRIEF RESPITE MID WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

254 AM UPDATE...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...CLOUDS WERE PLAYING A
SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
OF AS MUCH AS THEY MIGHT HAVE WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR IN PLACE. FARTHER SOUTH...A FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES
ACROSS NORTHERN CT...AND PORTIONS OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THESE
AREAS RECENTLY CLEARED...BUT IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE
MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST.

06Z MESONET TEMPERATURES SHOWED MANY AREAS WITHIN THE FROST
ADVISORY AREA JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL RANGE WHERE
FROST WOULD DEVELOP. THE EXPECTATION IS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY AND FROST WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE MARITIMES THE PAST DAY OR SO IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR REGION TODAY. THUS WE
WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE PEEKS THROUGH
THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND IN PARTS OF RI AND SOUTHEASTERN MA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES EVEN FURTHER WEST...AND INDUCES
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...BESIDES THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THAT SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RISK FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES BUT DRY MOST OF PERIOD
* LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OVER MARITIMES RETROGRADES EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING BACK OFFSHORE. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WHICH CAME ASHORE LAST NIGHT IN CA MAY PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LATE IN THE WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS DOES NOT SHOW PHASING.
THE 12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW PHASING LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...BUT ALSO
LIKE ITS PRIOR RUN...STILL TAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND ITS
12Z OPERATIONAL RUN SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE
MEAN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS SHOW LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY...AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE WIDELY DISPERSED WITH MANY
MEMBERS SHOWING NO SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND A FEW
OTHERS DEPICTING AN INTENSE COASTAL LOW JUST SE OF NEW ENGLAND.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER WEDNESDAY...TEND TO HAVE
A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN
ITS BETTER INTERNAL CONSISTENCY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND UPPER TROF STARTS TO SHIFT SE IN
ADDITION TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN
THE EAST GIVEN SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...CYCLONIC FLOW AND PROXIMITY
OF COLD POOL ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING DRY FOR NOW. GFS
BRINGS UPPER SHORT WAVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE IN DAY/EVENING BUT
ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT HAVE JUST LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS
PERIOD DEPENDENT UPON EVOLUTION OF PROBABLE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST. THE ECMWF SHOWS BEST CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN AND WITH
ITS ENSEMBLES SO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE MOMENT. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW FORMING
NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST BUT PROBABLY REMAINING SE OF NEW ENGLAND.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY SATURDAY WILL SEE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY SIGNAL THE START OF A
WARMER PERIOD FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...
BUT ONSET TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE TIME BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...PERHAPS NEAR OR
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...TO THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WIND FIELD FOR THAT TIME FRAME GIVEN HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ017-018.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...BELK/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...BELK/THOMPSON
MARINE...BELK/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260654
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
254 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED BOTH EARLY AND LATE THIS WEEK...WITH A
BRIEF RESPITE MID WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

254 AM UPDATE...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...CLOUDS WERE PLAYING A
SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
OF AS MUCH AS THEY MIGHT HAVE WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR IN PLACE. FARTHER SOUTH...A FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES
ACROSS NORTHERN CT...AND PORTIONS OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THESE
AREAS RECENTLY CLEARED...BUT IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE
MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST.

06Z MESONET TEMPERATURES SHOWED MANY AREAS WITHIN THE FROST
ADVISORY AREA JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL RANGE WHERE
FROST WOULD DEVELOP. THE EXPECTATION IS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY AND FROST WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE MARITIMES THE PAST DAY OR SO IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR REGION TODAY. THUS WE
WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE PEEKS THROUGH
THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND IN PARTS OF RI AND SOUTHEASTERN MA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES EVEN FURTHER WEST...AND INDUCES
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...BESIDES THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THAT SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RISK FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES BUT DRY MOST OF PERIOD
* LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OVER MARITIMES RETROGRADES EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING BACK OFFSHORE. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WHICH CAME ASHORE LAST NIGHT IN CA MAY PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LATE IN THE WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS DOES NOT SHOW PHASING.
THE 12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW PHASING LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...BUT ALSO
LIKE ITS PRIOR RUN...STILL TAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND ITS
12Z OPERATIONAL RUN SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE
MEAN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS SHOW LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY...AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE WIDELY DISPERSED WITH MANY
MEMBERS SHOWING NO SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND A FEW
OTHERS DEPICTING AN INTENSE COASTAL LOW JUST SE OF NEW ENGLAND.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER WEDNESDAY...TEND TO HAVE
A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN
ITS BETTER INTERNAL CONSISTENCY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND UPPER TROF STARTS TO SHIFT SE IN
ADDITION TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN
THE EAST GIVEN SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...CYCLONIC FLOW AND PROXIMITY
OF COLD POOL ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING DRY FOR NOW. GFS
BRINGS UPPER SHORT WAVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE IN DAY/EVENING BUT
ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT HAVE JUST LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS
PERIOD DEPENDENT UPON EVOLUTION OF PROBABLE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST. THE ECMWF SHOWS BEST CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN AND WITH
ITS ENSEMBLES SO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE MOMENT. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW FORMING
NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST BUT PROBABLY REMAINING SE OF NEW ENGLAND.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY SATURDAY WILL SEE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY SIGNAL THE START OF A
WARMER PERIOD FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...
BUT ONSET TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE TIME BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...PERHAPS NEAR OR
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...TO THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WIND FIELD FOR THAT TIME FRAME GIVEN HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ017-018.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...BELK/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...BELK/THOMPSON
MARINE...BELK/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260654
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
254 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED BOTH EARLY AND LATE THIS WEEK...WITH A
BRIEF RESPITE MID WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

254 AM UPDATE...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...CLOUDS WERE PLAYING A
SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
OF AS MUCH AS THEY MIGHT HAVE WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR IN PLACE. FARTHER SOUTH...A FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES
ACROSS NORTHERN CT...AND PORTIONS OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THESE
AREAS RECENTLY CLEARED...BUT IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE
MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST.

06Z MESONET TEMPERATURES SHOWED MANY AREAS WITHIN THE FROST
ADVISORY AREA JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL RANGE WHERE
FROST WOULD DEVELOP. THE EXPECTATION IS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY AND FROST WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE MARITIMES THE PAST DAY OR SO IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR REGION TODAY. THUS WE
WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE PEEKS THROUGH
THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND IN PARTS OF RI AND SOUTHEASTERN MA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES EVEN FURTHER WEST...AND INDUCES
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...BESIDES THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THAT SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RISK FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES BUT DRY MOST OF PERIOD
* LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OVER MARITIMES RETROGRADES EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING BACK OFFSHORE. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WHICH CAME ASHORE LAST NIGHT IN CA MAY PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LATE IN THE WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS DOES NOT SHOW PHASING.
THE 12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW PHASING LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...BUT ALSO
LIKE ITS PRIOR RUN...STILL TAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND ITS
12Z OPERATIONAL RUN SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE
MEAN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS SHOW LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY...AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE WIDELY DISPERSED WITH MANY
MEMBERS SHOWING NO SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND A FEW
OTHERS DEPICTING AN INTENSE COASTAL LOW JUST SE OF NEW ENGLAND.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER WEDNESDAY...TEND TO HAVE
A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN
ITS BETTER INTERNAL CONSISTENCY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND UPPER TROF STARTS TO SHIFT SE IN
ADDITION TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN
THE EAST GIVEN SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...CYCLONIC FLOW AND PROXIMITY
OF COLD POOL ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING DRY FOR NOW. GFS
BRINGS UPPER SHORT WAVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE IN DAY/EVENING BUT
ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT HAVE JUST LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS
PERIOD DEPENDENT UPON EVOLUTION OF PROBABLE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST. THE ECMWF SHOWS BEST CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN AND WITH
ITS ENSEMBLES SO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE MOMENT. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW FORMING
NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST BUT PROBABLY REMAINING SE OF NEW ENGLAND.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY SATURDAY WILL SEE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY SIGNAL THE START OF A
WARMER PERIOD FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...
BUT ONSET TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE TIME BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...PERHAPS NEAR OR
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...TO THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WIND FIELD FOR THAT TIME FRAME GIVEN HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ017-018.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...BELK/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...BELK/THOMPSON
MARINE...BELK/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260654
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
254 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED BOTH EARLY AND LATE THIS WEEK...WITH A
BRIEF RESPITE MID WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

254 AM UPDATE...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...CLOUDS WERE PLAYING A
SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
OF AS MUCH AS THEY MIGHT HAVE WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR IN PLACE. FARTHER SOUTH...A FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES
ACROSS NORTHERN CT...AND PORTIONS OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THESE
AREAS RECENTLY CLEARED...BUT IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE
MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST.

06Z MESONET TEMPERATURES SHOWED MANY AREAS WITHIN THE FROST
ADVISORY AREA JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL RANGE WHERE
FROST WOULD DEVELOP. THE EXPECTATION IS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY AND FROST WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY.

THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE MARITIMES THE PAST DAY OR SO IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR REGION TODAY. THUS WE
WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE PEEKS THROUGH
THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND IN PARTS OF RI AND SOUTHEASTERN MA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE
A BIT WARMER THAN EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES EVEN FURTHER WEST...AND INDUCES
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...BESIDES THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THAT SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RISK FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES BUT DRY MOST OF PERIOD
* LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OVER MARITIMES RETROGRADES EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING BACK OFFSHORE. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WHICH CAME ASHORE LAST NIGHT IN CA MAY PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LATE IN THE WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS DOES NOT SHOW PHASING.
THE 12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW PHASING LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...BUT ALSO
LIKE ITS PRIOR RUN...STILL TAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND ITS
12Z OPERATIONAL RUN SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE
MEAN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS SHOW LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY...AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE WIDELY DISPERSED WITH MANY
MEMBERS SHOWING NO SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND A FEW
OTHERS DEPICTING AN INTENSE COASTAL LOW JUST SE OF NEW ENGLAND.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER WEDNESDAY...TEND TO HAVE
A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN
ITS BETTER INTERNAL CONSISTENCY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND UPPER TROF STARTS TO SHIFT SE IN
ADDITION TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN
THE EAST GIVEN SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...CYCLONIC FLOW AND PROXIMITY
OF COLD POOL ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING DRY FOR NOW. GFS
BRINGS UPPER SHORT WAVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE IN DAY/EVENING BUT
ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT HAVE JUST LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS
PERIOD DEPENDENT UPON EVOLUTION OF PROBABLE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST. THE ECMWF SHOWS BEST CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN AND WITH
ITS ENSEMBLES SO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE MOMENT. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW FORMING
NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST BUT PROBABLY REMAINING SE OF NEW ENGLAND.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY SATURDAY WILL SEE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY SIGNAL THE START OF A
WARMER PERIOD FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

MONDAY...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED...
BUT ONSET TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE TIME BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...PERHAPS NEAR OR
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...TO THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WIND FIELD FOR THAT TIME FRAME GIVEN HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ017-018.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...BELK/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...BELK/THOMPSON
MARINE...BELK/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KALY 260503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...CLOUDS REMAIN INTACT MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
I90 PER THE IR/FOG SATELLITE PRODUCTS THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SO
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS/FORECAST. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS
EVERYWHERE WERE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER SO HAVE ADJUST UPWARD BOTH
THE DEWPOINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A
TRANQUIL NIGHT EXPECTED AS IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT AGAIN WITH
LOWS 25F TO 35F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST
35 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTWARD TO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY
LATE AT NIGHT.

ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SKY COVER
TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN START TO
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS INDICATED THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY EXIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
POPS IN THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THEN...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY
ANTICYCLONIC BY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT
WORKING ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE COULD START BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UNTIL THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN....LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WE GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TAKE PLACE LOOK LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THIS FEATURE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 5-
7 KFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REAMINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. MEANWHILE...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU WITH
JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS...THANKS TO A WEAK FEATURE ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT ALL SITES...FLYING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NEARLY CALM
WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW W-NW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO ROTATE BACK
WESTWARD...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STRATOCU CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS....WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS AT 4-6 KFT.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO
TOO SMALL TO ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT : MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT : NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 260503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...CLOUDS REMAIN INTACT MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
I90 PER THE IR/FOG SATELLITE PRODUCTS THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SO
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS/FORECAST. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS
EVERYWHERE WERE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER SO HAVE ADJUST UPWARD BOTH
THE DEWPOINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A
TRANQUIL NIGHT EXPECTED AS IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT AGAIN WITH
LOWS 25F TO 35F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST
35 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTWARD TO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY
LATE AT NIGHT.

ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SKY COVER
TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN START TO
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS INDICATED THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY EXIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
POPS IN THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THEN...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY
ANTICYCLONIC BY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT
WORKING ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE COULD START BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UNTIL THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN....LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WE GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TAKE PLACE LOOK LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THIS FEATURE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 5-
7 KFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REAMINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. MEANWHILE...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU WITH
JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS...THANKS TO A WEAK FEATURE ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT ALL SITES...FLYING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NEARLY CALM
WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW W-NW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO ROTATE BACK
WESTWARD...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STRATOCU CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS....WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS AT 4-6 KFT.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO
TOO SMALL TO ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT : MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT : NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 260503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...CLOUDS REMAIN INTACT MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
I90 PER THE IR/FOG SATELLITE PRODUCTS THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SO
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS/FORECAST. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS
EVERYWHERE WERE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER SO HAVE ADJUST UPWARD BOTH
THE DEWPOINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A
TRANQUIL NIGHT EXPECTED AS IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT AGAIN WITH
LOWS 25F TO 35F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST
35 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTWARD TO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY
LATE AT NIGHT.

ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SKY COVER
TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN START TO
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS INDICATED THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY EXIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
POPS IN THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THEN...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY
ANTICYCLONIC BY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT
WORKING ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE COULD START BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UNTIL THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN....LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WE GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TAKE PLACE LOOK LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THIS FEATURE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 5-
7 KFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REAMINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. MEANWHILE...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU WITH
JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS...THANKS TO A WEAK FEATURE ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT ALL SITES...FLYING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NEARLY CALM
WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW W-NW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO ROTATE BACK
WESTWARD...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STRATOCU CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS....WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS AT 4-6 KFT.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO
TOO SMALL TO ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT : MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT : NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 260503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.  A
RETURN TO MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...CLOUDS REMAIN INTACT MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
I90 PER THE IR/FOG SATELLITE PRODUCTS THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SO
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS/FORECAST. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS
EVERYWHERE WERE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER SO HAVE ADJUST UPWARD BOTH
THE DEWPOINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A
TRANQUIL NIGHT EXPECTED AS IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT AGAIN WITH
LOWS 25F TO 35F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST
35 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTWARD TO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY
LATE AT NIGHT.

ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SKY COVER
TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN START TO
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS INDICATED THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY EXIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
POPS IN THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THEN...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY
ANTICYCLONIC BY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT
WORKING ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE COULD START BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UNTIL THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN....LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WE GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TAKE PLACE LOOK LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED JUST EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THIS FEATURE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 5-
7 KFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REAMINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. MEANWHILE...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR AT KPOU WITH
JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS...THANKS TO A WEAK FEATURE ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT ALL SITES...FLYING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NEARLY CALM
WINDS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW W-NW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO ROTATE BACK
WESTWARD...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STRATOCU CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN HOURS....WITH
BKN-OVC CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS AT 4-6 KFT.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE REGION...A RAIN
SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO
TOO SMALL TO ADDRESS WITH MORE THAN JUST A VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT : MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT : NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 260224
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1024 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL WOBBLE BACK INTO
MAINE ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1024 PM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS REMAIN LATE THIS EVENING FROM
AROUND I-90 NORTHWARD WITH SOME BREAKS...WHILE THERE ARE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY START TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BEGINS TO WOBBLE WESTWARD AND BRINGS AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT AGAIN WITH LOWS 25
TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST
35 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTWARD TO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY
LATE AT NIGHT.

ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SKY COVER
TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN START TO
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS INDICATED THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY EXIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
POPS IN THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THEN...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY
ANTICYCLONIC BY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT
WORKING ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE COULD START BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UNTIL THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN....LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WE GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TAKE PLACE LOOK LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO JUST INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. TONIGHT IT APPEARS THE CLOUD
LINE WILL BE FROM AROUND KALB/KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL...WHILE KPOU
REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LESS THAN 5 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING
TO AROUND 6-8 KTS SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260153
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
953 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
953 PM UPDATE...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHT...CLOUDS WERE PLAYING A
SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS BROUGHT INTO QUESTION THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FROST FORMATION...AND THE NEED FOR THE FROST
ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN CT...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA.

SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOWED SOME CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN NH. OF ALL
THE NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...THE LAV GUIDANCE WAS HANDLING THE SKY
COVER THE BEST. LEANED HEAVILY UPON IT WHEN MAKING ADJUSTMENTS
THIS EVENING. THE LAV ALSO CLEARED THE CLOUDS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE 04-06Z TIME FRAME. WITH LIGHT WINDS ALREADY...
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH THE CLEAR SKIES. IN
CONSIDERATION OF ALL THE FACTORS...AND COLLABORATION WITH A
NEIGHBORING OFFICE...DECIDED TO LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTACT AT THIS
TIME.

MADE QUITE A FEW CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL DROP MANY
LOCATIONS INTO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...RHODE
ISLAND...AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN ACROSS THESE AREAS...WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR THIS REGION. THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF FROST
OCCURRING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THERE SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUN PEEKS THROUGH
THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
AND IN PARTS OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.  WITH CLOUDY
SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RISK FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES BUT DRY MOST OF PERIOD
* LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OVER MARITIMES RETROGRADES EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING BACK OFFSHORE. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WHICH CAME ASHORE LAST NIGHT IN CA MAY PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LATE IN THE WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS DOES NOT SHOW PHASING.
THE 12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW PHASING LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...BUT ALSO
LIKE ITS PRIOR RUN...STILL TAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND ITS
12Z OPERATIONAL RUN SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE
MEAN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS SHOW LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY...AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE WIDELY DISPERSED WITH MANY
MEMBERS SHOWING NO SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND A FEW
OTHERS DEPICTING AN INTENSE COASTAL LOW JUST SE OF NEW ENGLAND.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER WEDNESDAY...TEND TO HAVE
A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN
ITS BETTER INTERNAL CONSISTENCY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND INDUCES SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS
SHOWERS. HAVE POPS GENERALLY AROUND 40 PERCENT BUT THINKING THAT
FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WISH TO INCREASE THOSE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT. NOTED THAT TOTAL TOTALS WERE NEAR 50...REFLECTIVE OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND UPPER TROF STARTS TO SHIFT SE IN ADDITION
TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN
THE EAST GIVEN SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...CYCLONIC FLOW AND PROXIMITY
OF COLD POOL ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING DRY FOR NOW. GFS
BRINGS UPPER SHORT WAVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE IN DAY/EVENING BUT
ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT HAVE JUST LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS
PERIOD DEPENDENT UPON EVOLUTION OF PROBABLE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST. THE ECMWF SHOWS BEST CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN AND WITH
ITS ENSEMBLES SO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE MOMENT. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW FORMING
NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST BUT PROBABLY REMAINING SE OF NEW ENGLAND.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY SATURDAY WILL SEE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY SIGNAL THE START OF A
WARMER PERIOD FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONTINUE TO EXPECT VFR WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE
BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO REDEVELOP AROUND
OR VERY SHORTLY AFTER 01Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE TIME BUT AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. ADJUSTED SEAS SLIGHTLY UP ACROSS THE OUTER SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS MASS BAY PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS BUT NOT
A CONCERN AS SEAS REVERTING BACK TO LARGELY A GENTLE SWELL
OVERNIGHT. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGHT THURSDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...PERHAPS NEAR OR
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...TO THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WIND FIELD FOR THAT TIME FRAME GIVEN HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MAZ017-018.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...RLG/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 252327
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
727 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL WOBBLE BACK INTO
MAINE ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 727 PM EDT...CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING LOCATED FROM
AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD WITH SOME BREAKS...WHILE
THERE ARE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
START TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BEGINS TO WOBBLE
WESTWARD AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. IT WILL BE A CHILLY
NIGHT AGAIN WITH LOWS 25 TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST
35 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTWARD TO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY
LATE AT NIGHT.

ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SKY COVER
TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN START TO
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS INDICATED THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY EXIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
POPS IN THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THEN...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY
ANTICYCLONIC BY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT
WORKING ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE COULD START BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UNTIL THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN....LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WE GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TAKE PLACE LOOK LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO JUST INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. TONIGHT IT APPEARS THE CLOUD
LINE WILL BE FROM AROUND KALB/KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL...WHILE KPOU
REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LESS THAN 5 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING
TO AROUND 6-8 KTS SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 252327
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
727 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL WOBBLE BACK INTO
MAINE ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 727 PM EDT...CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING LOCATED FROM
AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD WITH SOME BREAKS...WHILE
THERE ARE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
START TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BEGINS TO WOBBLE
WESTWARD AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. IT WILL BE A CHILLY
NIGHT AGAIN WITH LOWS 25 TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST
35 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTWARD TO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY
LATE AT NIGHT.

ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SKY COVER
TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN START TO
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS INDICATED THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY EXIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
POPS IN THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THEN...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY
ANTICYCLONIC BY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT
WORKING ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE COULD START BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UNTIL THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN....LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WE GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TAKE PLACE LOOK LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO JUST INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. TONIGHT IT APPEARS THE CLOUD
LINE WILL BE FROM AROUND KALB/KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL...WHILE KPOU
REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LESS THAN 5 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING
TO AROUND 6-8 KTS SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 252327
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
727 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL WOBBLE BACK INTO
MAINE ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 727 PM EDT...CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING LOCATED FROM
AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD WITH SOME BREAKS...WHILE
THERE ARE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
START TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE BEGINS TO WOBBLE
WESTWARD AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. IT WILL BE A CHILLY
NIGHT AGAIN WITH LOWS 25 TO 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON
SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION. HAVE FORECAST
35 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTWARD TO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE FORECAST POPS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALL AREAS BY
LATE AT NIGHT.

ONCE CLOUDS INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SKY COVER
TO REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN START TO
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL DURING THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS TO FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST SNOW IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING OUR REGION. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST MODELS INDICATED THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY EXIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY SO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF
POPS IN THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THEN...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME WEAKLY
ANTICYCLONIC BY WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAD A WEAK COLD FRONT
WORKING ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS DID NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY.

WE WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE COULD START BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UNTIL THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN....LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S VALLEY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY NEXT
SATURDAY...WE GO WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE VALLEYS...60S HIGHER
TERRAIN.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TAKE PLACE LOOK LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIALLY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO JUST INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. TONIGHT IT APPEARS THE CLOUD
LINE WILL BE FROM AROUND KALB/KPSF NORTHWARD TO KGFL...WHILE KPOU
REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LESS THAN 5 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING
TO AROUND 6-8 KTS SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
70 AND 90 PERCENT.

THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ELEVATED WITH MINIMUM
VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN OUR
HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE WITH THE COOLER
TEMPS AND LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION FORECASTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252308
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
708 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA NE
OF A PSF-WST LINE AT 00Z...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
THIN OUT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR FAIRLY ROBUST
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. IF THESE CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO
DISSIPATE THAN ANTICIPATED...THEN IT MIGHT BE NECESSARY TO TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT OVERNIGHT PROJECTED LOW TEMPERATURES AND FROST
ADVISORY. ANOTHER ISSUE EARLY THIS EVENING IS PROGRESSION OF SEA
BREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE BOS SHORELINE. ANTICIPATE THE A LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW TO BECOME REESTABLISHED AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 01Z.

330 PM UPDATE...CLOUDS HAVE STREAMED DOWN THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
SLOWLY ROTATING ITS WAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL DROP MANY
LOCATIONS INTO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
RHODE ISLAND...AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.  BECAUSE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN ACROSS THESE AREAS...WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR THIS REGION.  THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF FROST OCCURRING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THERE SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUN PEEKS THROUGH
THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
AND IN PARTS OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.  WITH CLOUDY
SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RISK FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES BUT DRY MOST OF PERIOD
* LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW... PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OVER MARITIMES RETROGRADES EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING BACK OFFSHORE. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WHICH CAME ASHORE LAST NIGHT IN CA MAY PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LATE IN THE WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS DOES NOT SHOW PHASING. THE
12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW PHASING LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...BUT ALSO LIKE ITS
PRIOR RUN...STILL TAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND ITS 12Z
OPERATIONAL RUN SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS SHOW LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...AND
ITS ENSEMBLES ARE WIDELY DISPERSED WITH MANY MEMBERS SHOWING NO
SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND A FEW OTHERS DEPICTING AN
INTENSE COASTAL LOW JUST SE OF NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER WEDNESDAY...TEND TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN ITS BETTER
INTERNAL CONSISTENCY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND INDUCES SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS
SHOWERS. HAVE POPS GENERALLY AROUND 40 PERCENT BUT THINKING THAT
FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WISH TO INCREASE THOSE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT. NOTED THAT TOTAL TOTALS WERE NEAR 50...REFLECTIVE OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND UPPER TROF STARTS TO SHIFT SE IN ADDITION
TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN
THE EAST GIVEN SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...CYCLONIC FLOW AND PROXIMITY
OF COLD POOL ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING DRY FOR NOW. GFS
BRINGS UPPER SHORT WAVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE IN DAY/EVENING BUT
ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT HAVE JUST LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS
PERIOD DEPENDENT UPON EVOLUTION OF PROBABLE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST. THE ECMWF SHOWS BEST CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN AND WITH
ITS ENSEMBLES SO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE MOMENT. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW FORMING
NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST BUT PROBABLY REMAINING SE OF NEW ENGLAND.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY SATURDAY WILL SEE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY SIGNAL THE START OF A
WARMER PERIOD FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONTINUE TO EXPECT VFR WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE
BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO REDEVELOP AROUND
OR VERY SHORTLY AFTER 01Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE TIME BUT AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. ADJUSTED SEAS SLIGHTLY UP ACROSS THE OUTER SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS MASS BAY PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS BUT NOT
A CONCERN AS SEAS REVERTING BACK TO LARGELY A GENTLE SWELL
OVERNIGHT. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGHT THURSDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET.

OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...PERHAPS NEAR OR
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...TO THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WIND FIELD FOR THAT TIME FRAME GIVEN HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MAZ017-018.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...RLG/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...RLG/THOMPSON
MARINE...RLG/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252308
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
708 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA NE
OF A PSF-WST LINE AT 00Z...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
THIN OUT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR FAIRLY ROBUST
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. IF THESE CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO
DISSIPATE THAN ANTICIPATED...THEN IT MIGHT BE NECESSARY TO TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT OVERNIGHT PROJECTED LOW TEMPERATURES AND FROST
ADVISORY. ANOTHER ISSUE EARLY THIS EVENING IS PROGRESSION OF SEA
BREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE BOS SHORELINE. ANTICIPATE THE A LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW TO BECOME REESTABLISHED AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 01Z.

330 PM UPDATE...CLOUDS HAVE STREAMED DOWN THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
SLOWLY ROTATING ITS WAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL DROP MANY
LOCATIONS INTO BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
RHODE ISLAND...AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.  BECAUSE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN ACROSS THESE AREAS...WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR THIS REGION.  THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF FROST OCCURRING
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THERE SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUN PEEKS THROUGH
THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
AND IN PARTS OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA.  WITH CLOUDY
SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RISK FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES BUT DRY MOST OF PERIOD
* LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW... PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OVER MARITIMES RETROGRADES EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING BACK OFFSHORE. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WHICH CAME ASHORE LAST NIGHT IN CA MAY PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY LATE IN THE WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS DOES NOT SHOW PHASING. THE
12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW PHASING LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...BUT ALSO LIKE ITS
PRIOR RUN...STILL TAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND ITS 12Z
OPERATIONAL RUN SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS SHOW LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...AND
ITS ENSEMBLES ARE WIDELY DISPERSED WITH MANY MEMBERS SHOWING NO
SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND A FEW OTHERS DEPICTING AN
INTENSE COASTAL LOW JUST SE OF NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER WEDNESDAY...TEND TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN ITS BETTER
INTERNAL CONSISTENCY.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND INDUCES SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS
SHOWERS. HAVE POPS GENERALLY AROUND 40 PERCENT BUT THINKING THAT
FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WISH TO INCREASE THOSE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS REMAIN
CONSISTENT. NOTED THAT TOTAL TOTALS WERE NEAR 50...REFLECTIVE OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AND UPPER TROF STARTS TO SHIFT SE IN ADDITION
TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN
THE EAST GIVEN SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...CYCLONIC FLOW AND PROXIMITY
OF COLD POOL ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING DRY FOR NOW. GFS
BRINGS UPPER SHORT WAVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE IN DAY/EVENING BUT
ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT HAVE JUST LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS
PERIOD DEPENDENT UPON EVOLUTION OF PROBABLE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST. THE ECMWF SHOWS BEST CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN AND WITH
ITS ENSEMBLES SO LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE MOMENT. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW FORMING
NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST BUT PROBABLY REMAINING SE OF NEW ENGLAND.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY SATURDAY WILL SEE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY SIGNAL THE START OF A
WARMER PERIOD FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONTINUE TO EXPECT VFR WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES
LIKELY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE
BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO REDEVELOP AROUND
OR VERY SHORTLY AFTER 01Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THOUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE TIME BUT AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. ADJUSTED SEAS SLIGHTLY UP ACROSS THE OUTER SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS MASS BAY PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS BUT NOT
A CONCE