Latest:
 AFDBOX |  AFDALY |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 040232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY FADING. STEADY
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DRAINING DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD TREND TO
CALM THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS TRENDING TOWARD CALM AND LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND KEEPING THAT IN THE FORECAST. JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS. MORE
DETAILS ON WEATHER TRENDS LATER TONIGHT IN PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

A CANADIAN SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC OVERNIGHT.
THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA...AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY MATERIALIZE. FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEERING FROM THE N/NE TO E/NE...SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE ALONG THE UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/LITCHFIELD
HILLS. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS PORTIONS OF NW
CT UNTIL DAYBREAK. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE FCST AREA...AND ALLOW THE DEWPTS TO FALL INTO 50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTH AND WEST...AND POSSIBLY SOME
U30S/40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PACK. H850 TEMPS FALL INTO THE +11C
TO +14C RANGE FROM THE E/NE TO W/SW OVER THE FCST AREA WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND 50S NORTH AND WEST...EXCEPT FOR SOME U40S
OVER PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN DURING THE DAY
FROM SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE H850-H925 LAYER. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BURN OFF DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE. H850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 12C TO 14C RANGE. OUR
FORECAST WAS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAMMOS/GFSMOS GUIDANCE
WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT...BUT
MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S TO U70S OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. WE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST
GRIDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION WITH MID AND U50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA TO START
THE DAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING. ACTUALLY...A
CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE SETS UP OVER UPSTATE NY. MIXING DEPTHS
LOOK TO BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. H850 TEMPS ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL
BE IN THE 13C TO 15C RANGE. THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SINKING OR
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING WITH U70S TO L80S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE WITH THE RIDGE IN CONTROL.
THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE WITH ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. SOME U40S ARE POSSIBLE OVER SRN VT...THE NRN
BERKS...AND SRN DACKS. SOME SHALLOW RADIATIVE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN. SUNDAY...TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
START TO INCREASE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SETTING
UP E/SE OF CAPE COD. HIGHS WILL BE IN LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO LABOR DAY WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
AROUND +1 TO +2 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH MID LEVEL WARMTH KEEPING A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...FULL SUNSHINE AND A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEYS
LOCATIONS LABOR DAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. THEN A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES FOR
TUESDAY...BUT COULD COMPLETELY WASH OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
AREA AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS
SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WILL MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY
WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP AS WELL.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW COOL THE AIR WILL BE
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE MAY STILL REMAIN ALONG
THE EAST COAST. SO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KPOU/KALB TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT
KPOU AND KALB. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND CAN
AMEND LATER IF CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC. AFTER 14Z
FRIDAY...KALB AND KGFL SHOULD BE VFR ONCE AGAIN...WHILE AN MVFR
CEILING COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO BREAK UP AT KPSF AND
KPOU.

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT TRENDING TO CALM. NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER.

AN EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY IS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MAXIMUM
RH VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER EXCELLENT RECOVERY OF
95 TO 100 PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH FROM ANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THE MID WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 040232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY FADING. STEADY
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DRAINING DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD TREND TO
CALM THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS TRENDING TOWARD CALM AND LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND KEEPING THAT IN THE FORECAST. JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS. MORE
DETAILS ON WEATHER TRENDS LATER TONIGHT IN PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

A CANADIAN SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC OVERNIGHT.
THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA...AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY MATERIALIZE. FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEERING FROM THE N/NE TO E/NE...SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE ALONG THE UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/LITCHFIELD
HILLS. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS PORTIONS OF NW
CT UNTIL DAYBREAK. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE FCST AREA...AND ALLOW THE DEWPTS TO FALL INTO 50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTH AND WEST...AND POSSIBLY SOME
U30S/40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PACK. H850 TEMPS FALL INTO THE +11C
TO +14C RANGE FROM THE E/NE TO W/SW OVER THE FCST AREA WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND 50S NORTH AND WEST...EXCEPT FOR SOME U40S
OVER PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN DURING THE DAY
FROM SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE H850-H925 LAYER. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BURN OFF DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE. H850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 12C TO 14C RANGE. OUR
FORECAST WAS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAMMOS/GFSMOS GUIDANCE
WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT...BUT
MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S TO U70S OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. WE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST
GRIDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION WITH MID AND U50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA TO START
THE DAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING. ACTUALLY...A
CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE SETS UP OVER UPSTATE NY. MIXING DEPTHS
LOOK TO BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. H850 TEMPS ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL
BE IN THE 13C TO 15C RANGE. THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SINKING OR
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING WITH U70S TO L80S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE WITH THE RIDGE IN CONTROL.
THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE WITH ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. SOME U40S ARE POSSIBLE OVER SRN VT...THE NRN
BERKS...AND SRN DACKS. SOME SHALLOW RADIATIVE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN. SUNDAY...TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
START TO INCREASE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SETTING
UP E/SE OF CAPE COD. HIGHS WILL BE IN LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO LABOR DAY WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
AROUND +1 TO +2 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH MID LEVEL WARMTH KEEPING A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...FULL SUNSHINE AND A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEYS
LOCATIONS LABOR DAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. THEN A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES FOR
TUESDAY...BUT COULD COMPLETELY WASH OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
AREA AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS
SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WILL MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY
WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP AS WELL.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW COOL THE AIR WILL BE
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE MAY STILL REMAIN ALONG
THE EAST COAST. SO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KPOU/KALB TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT
KPOU AND KALB. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND CAN
AMEND LATER IF CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC. AFTER 14Z
FRIDAY...KALB AND KGFL SHOULD BE VFR ONCE AGAIN...WHILE AN MVFR
CEILING COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO BREAK UP AT KPSF AND
KPOU.

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT TRENDING TO CALM. NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER.

AN EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY IS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MAXIMUM
RH VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER EXCELLENT RECOVERY OF
95 TO 100 PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH FROM ANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THE MID WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 040232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY FADING. STEADY
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DRAINING DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD TREND TO
CALM THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS TRENDING TOWARD CALM AND LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND KEEPING THAT IN THE FORECAST. JUST MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS. MORE
DETAILS ON WEATHER TRENDS LATER TONIGHT IN PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

A CANADIAN SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC OVERNIGHT.
THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA...AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY MATERIALIZE. FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEERING FROM THE N/NE TO E/NE...SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE ALONG THE UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/LITCHFIELD
HILLS. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS PORTIONS OF NW
CT UNTIL DAYBREAK. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE FCST AREA...AND ALLOW THE DEWPTS TO FALL INTO 50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTH AND WEST...AND POSSIBLY SOME
U30S/40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PACK. H850 TEMPS FALL INTO THE +11C
TO +14C RANGE FROM THE E/NE TO W/SW OVER THE FCST AREA WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND 50S NORTH AND WEST...EXCEPT FOR SOME U40S
OVER PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN DURING THE DAY
FROM SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE H850-H925 LAYER. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BURN OFF DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE. H850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 12C TO 14C RANGE. OUR
FORECAST WAS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAMMOS/GFSMOS GUIDANCE
WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT...BUT
MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S TO U70S OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. WE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST
GRIDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION WITH MID AND U50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA TO START
THE DAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING. ACTUALLY...A
CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE SETS UP OVER UPSTATE NY. MIXING DEPTHS
LOOK TO BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. H850 TEMPS ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL
BE IN THE 13C TO 15C RANGE. THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SINKING OR
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING WITH U70S TO L80S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE WITH THE RIDGE IN CONTROL.
THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE WITH ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. SOME U40S ARE POSSIBLE OVER SRN VT...THE NRN
BERKS...AND SRN DACKS. SOME SHALLOW RADIATIVE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN. SUNDAY...TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
START TO INCREASE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SETTING
UP E/SE OF CAPE COD. HIGHS WILL BE IN LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO LABOR DAY WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
AROUND +1 TO +2 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH MID LEVEL WARMTH KEEPING A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...FULL SUNSHINE AND A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEYS
LOCATIONS LABOR DAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. THEN A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES FOR
TUESDAY...BUT COULD COMPLETELY WASH OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
AREA AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS
SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WILL MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY
WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP AS WELL.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW COOL THE AIR WILL BE
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE MAY STILL REMAIN ALONG
THE EAST COAST. SO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KPOU/KALB TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT
KPOU AND KALB. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND CAN
AMEND LATER IF CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC. AFTER 14Z
FRIDAY...KALB AND KGFL SHOULD BE VFR ONCE AGAIN...WHILE AN MVFR
CEILING COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO BREAK UP AT KPSF AND
KPOU.

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT TRENDING TO CALM. NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER.

AN EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY IS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MAXIMUM
RH VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER EXCELLENT RECOVERY OF
95 TO 100 PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH FROM ANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THE MID WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 040202
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...AND THROUGH THIS LABOR
DAY WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
CORE OF UPPER LVL INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO PUSH E OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING
6.0C/KM CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCAL POINT FOR INDEPENDENT WEAK
UPDRAFTS TO CONTINUE TO FORM WHERE WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES LIE.
MAINLY IN A LINE FROM THE LOWER CT VALLEY OF MA TO CAPE ANN AND
ALL POINTS IN BETWEEN. THESE FEATURES ARE JUST INSTABILITY DRIVEN
HENCE THEIR SHORT LIVES...BUILDING AND DYING WITHIN A FEW SCANS.
NEGATIVE STRIKE COUNTS CONTINUE TO QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO POSITIVE
COUNTS BEFORE DYING...ADDING TO THE CONFIDENCE THAT EACH OF THESE
WEAK UPDRAFTS ARE COLLAPSING ON THEMSELVES. WORTH ENOUGH FOR AN
INCREASE IN POPS THIS EVENING AND RE-UPPING THE MENTION OF
THUNDER...BUT SUSPECT ANY ONE OF THESE TO BE SHORT LIVED AS THE
CORE OF INSTABILITY CONTINUES ITS E SHIFT AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO SPILL IN FROM THE N.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. ERN MA/RI WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS. SHOULD HAVE LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATE. MINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S HOWEVER MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF SPOTS IN THE FAR INTERIOR DIP INTO UPPER 50S NEAR
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...EXPECTING BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA.  SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE MORNING.  HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT...WITH THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
EAST SLOPES BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS...AS WELL AS EAST COASTAL
MA THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/ONSHORE WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...TEMPS WILL DIP INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

03/12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE FOR THE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL MEAN MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WELL...MAXIMIZING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SLATED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

757 PM UPDATE...

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY
STRATUS AND FOG.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING NEAR
5 FEET FIRST ON THE E WATERS PROBABLY BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI...THEN
THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET.  ELSEWHERE...WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER...OR NEAR...THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEARSHORE...GIVING WAY TO A MORE
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 040202
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...AND THROUGH THIS LABOR
DAY WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
CORE OF UPPER LVL INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO PUSH E OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING
6.0C/KM CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCAL POINT FOR INDEPENDENT WEAK
UPDRAFTS TO CONTINUE TO FORM WHERE WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES LIE.
MAINLY IN A LINE FROM THE LOWER CT VALLEY OF MA TO CAPE ANN AND
ALL POINTS IN BETWEEN. THESE FEATURES ARE JUST INSTABILITY DRIVEN
HENCE THEIR SHORT LIVES...BUILDING AND DYING WITHIN A FEW SCANS.
NEGATIVE STRIKE COUNTS CONTINUE TO QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO POSITIVE
COUNTS BEFORE DYING...ADDING TO THE CONFIDENCE THAT EACH OF THESE
WEAK UPDRAFTS ARE COLLAPSING ON THEMSELVES. WORTH ENOUGH FOR AN
INCREASE IN POPS THIS EVENING AND RE-UPPING THE MENTION OF
THUNDER...BUT SUSPECT ANY ONE OF THESE TO BE SHORT LIVED AS THE
CORE OF INSTABILITY CONTINUES ITS E SHIFT AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO SPILL IN FROM THE N.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. ERN MA/RI WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS. SHOULD HAVE LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATE. MINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S HOWEVER MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF SPOTS IN THE FAR INTERIOR DIP INTO UPPER 50S NEAR
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...EXPECTING BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA.  SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE MORNING.  HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT...WITH THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
EAST SLOPES BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS...AS WELL AS EAST COASTAL
MA THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/ONSHORE WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...TEMPS WILL DIP INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

03/12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE FOR THE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL MEAN MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WELL...MAXIMIZING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SLATED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

757 PM UPDATE...

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY
STRATUS AND FOG.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING NEAR
5 FEET FIRST ON THE E WATERS PROBABLY BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI...THEN
THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET.  ELSEWHERE...WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER...OR NEAR...THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEARSHORE...GIVING WAY TO A MORE
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 032357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
757 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...AND THROUGH THIS LABOR
DAY WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
757 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS WINDING DOWN DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY TO KEEP THEM
GOING. MODIFIED NEAR-TERM FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING
WEATHER-WISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. ERN MA/RI WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS. SHOULD HAVE LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATE. MINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S HOWEVER MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF SPOTS IN THE FAR INTERIOR DIP INTO UPPER 50S NEAR
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...EXPECTING BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA.  SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE MORNING.  HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT...WITH THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
EAST SLOPES BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS...AS WELL AS EAST COASTAL
MA THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/ONSHORE WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...TEMPS WILL DIP INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

03/12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE FOR THE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL MEAN MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WELL...MAXIMIZING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SLATED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

757 PM UPDATE...

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY
STRATUS AND FOG.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING NEAR
5 FEET FIRST ON THE E WATERS PROBABLY BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI...THEN
THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET.  ELSEWHERE...WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER...OR NEAR...THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEARSHORE...GIVING WAY TO A MORE
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 032357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
757 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...AND THROUGH THIS LABOR
DAY WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
757 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS WINDING DOWN DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY TO KEEP THEM
GOING. MODIFIED NEAR-TERM FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING
WEATHER-WISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. ERN MA/RI WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS. SHOULD HAVE LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATE. MINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S HOWEVER MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF SPOTS IN THE FAR INTERIOR DIP INTO UPPER 50S NEAR
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...EXPECTING BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA.  SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE MORNING.  HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT...WITH THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
EAST SLOPES BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS...AS WELL AS EAST COASTAL
MA THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/ONSHORE WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...TEMPS WILL DIP INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

03/12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE FOR THE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL MEAN MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WELL...MAXIMIZING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SLATED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

757 PM UPDATE...

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY
STRATUS AND FOG.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING NEAR
5 FEET FIRST ON THE E WATERS PROBABLY BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI...THEN
THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET.  ELSEWHERE...WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER...OR NEAR...THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEARSHORE...GIVING WAY TO A MORE
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 032357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
757 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...AND THROUGH THIS LABOR
DAY WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
757 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS WINDING DOWN DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY TO KEEP THEM
GOING. MODIFIED NEAR-TERM FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING
WEATHER-WISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. ERN MA/RI WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS. SHOULD HAVE LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATE. MINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S HOWEVER MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF SPOTS IN THE FAR INTERIOR DIP INTO UPPER 50S NEAR
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...EXPECTING BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA.  SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE MORNING.  HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT...WITH THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
EAST SLOPES BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS...AS WELL AS EAST COASTAL
MA THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/ONSHORE WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...TEMPS WILL DIP INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

03/12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE FOR THE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL MEAN MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WELL...MAXIMIZING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SLATED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

757 PM UPDATE...

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY
STRATUS AND FOG.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING NEAR
5 FEET FIRST ON THE E WATERS PROBABLY BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI...THEN
THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET.  ELSEWHERE...WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER...OR NEAR...THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEARSHORE...GIVING WAY TO A MORE
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 032357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
757 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...AND THROUGH THIS LABOR
DAY WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
757 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS WINDING DOWN DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY TO KEEP THEM
GOING. MODIFIED NEAR-TERM FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING
WEATHER-WISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. ERN MA/RI WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS. SHOULD HAVE LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATE. MINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S HOWEVER MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF SPOTS IN THE FAR INTERIOR DIP INTO UPPER 50S NEAR
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...EXPECTING BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA.  SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE MORNING.  HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT...WITH THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
EAST SLOPES BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS...AS WELL AS EAST COASTAL
MA THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/ONSHORE WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...TEMPS WILL DIP INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

03/12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE FOR THE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL MEAN MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WELL...MAXIMIZING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SLATED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

757 PM UPDATE...

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY
STRATUS AND FOG.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING NEAR
5 FEET FIRST ON THE E WATERS PROBABLY BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI...THEN
THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET.  ELSEWHERE...WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER...OR NEAR...THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEARSHORE...GIVING WAY TO A MORE
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 032357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
757 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...AND THROUGH THIS LABOR
DAY WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
757 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS WINDING DOWN DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY TO KEEP THEM
GOING. MODIFIED NEAR-TERM FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING
WEATHER-WISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. ERN MA/RI WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS. SHOULD HAVE LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATE. MINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S HOWEVER MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF SPOTS IN THE FAR INTERIOR DIP INTO UPPER 50S NEAR
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...EXPECTING BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA.  SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE MORNING.  HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT...WITH THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
EAST SLOPES BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS...AS WELL AS EAST COASTAL
MA THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/ONSHORE WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...TEMPS WILL DIP INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

03/12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE FOR THE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL MEAN MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WELL...MAXIMIZING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SLATED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

757 PM UPDATE...

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY
STRATUS AND FOG.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING NEAR
5 FEET FIRST ON THE E WATERS PROBABLY BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI...THEN
THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET.  ELSEWHERE...WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER...OR NEAR...THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEARSHORE...GIVING WAY TO A MORE
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KALY 032336
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE DISSIPATING...AND COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TOO LITTLE TO ACKNOWLEDGE IN FORECAST THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY FADING. LIGHT
WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE SOME PATCHY
OR AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT...AND KEEPING THAT IN THE FORECAST.
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN ADDITION TO TAKING THE
RAIN CHANCES OUT. MORE DETAILS ON WEATHER TRENDS LATER TONIGHT IN
PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

A CANADIAN SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC OVERNIGHT.
THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA...AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY MATERIALIZE. FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEERING FROM THE N/NE TO E/NE...SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE ALONG THE UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/LITCHFIELD
HILLS. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS PORTIONS OF NW
CT UNTIL DAYBREAK. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE FCST AREA...AND ALLOW THE DEWPTS TO FALL INTO 50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTH AND WEST...AND POSSIBLY SOME
U30S/40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PACK. H850 TEMPS FALL INTO THE +11C
TO +14C RANGE FROM THE E/NE TO W/SW OVER THE FCST AREA WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND 50S NORTH AND WEST...EXCEPT FOR SOME U40S
OVER PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN DURING THE DAY
FROM SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE H850-H925 LAYER. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BURN OFF DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE. H850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 12C TO 14C RANGE. OUR
FORECAST WAS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAMMOS/GFSMOS GUIDANCE
WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT...BUT
MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S TO U70S OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. WE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST
GRIDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION WITH MID AND U50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA TO START
THE DAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING. ACTUALLY...A
CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE SETS UP OVER UPSTATE NY. MIXING DEPTHS
LOOK TO BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. H850 TEMPS ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL
BE IN THE 13C TO 15C RANGE. THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SINKING OR
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING WITH U70S TO L80S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE WITH THE RIDGE IN CONTROL.
THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE WITH ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. SOME U40S ARE POSSIBLE OVER SRN VT...THE NRN
BERKS...AND SRN DACKS. SOME SHALLOW RADIATIVE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN. SUNDAY...TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
START TO INCREASE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SETTING
UP E/SE OF CAPE COD. HIGHS WILL BE IN LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO LABOR DAY WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
AROUND +1 TO +2 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH MID LEVEL WARMTH KEEPING A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...FULL SUNSHINE AND A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEYS
LOCATIONS LABOR DAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. THEN A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES FOR
TUESDAY...BUT COULD COMPLETELY WASH OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
AREA AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS
SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WILL MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY
WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP AS WELL.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW COOL THE AIR WILL BE
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE MAY STILL REMAIN ALONG
THE EAST COAST. SO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KPOU/KALB TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT
KPOU AND KALB. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND CAN
AMEND LATER IF CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC. AFTER 14Z
FRIDAY...KALB AND KGFL SHOULD BE VFR ONCE AGAIN...WHILE AN MVFR
CEILING COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO BREAK UP AT KPSF AND
KPOU.

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT TRENDING TO CALM. NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER.

AN EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY IS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MAXIMUM
RH VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER EXCELLENT RECOVERY OF
95 TO 100 PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH FROM ANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THE MID WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 032336
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE DISSIPATING...AND COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TOO LITTLE TO ACKNOWLEDGE IN FORECAST THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY FADING. LIGHT
WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE SOME PATCHY
OR AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT...AND KEEPING THAT IN THE FORECAST.
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN ADDITION TO TAKING THE
RAIN CHANCES OUT. MORE DETAILS ON WEATHER TRENDS LATER TONIGHT IN
PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

A CANADIAN SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC OVERNIGHT.
THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA...AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY MATERIALIZE. FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEERING FROM THE N/NE TO E/NE...SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE ALONG THE UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/LITCHFIELD
HILLS. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS PORTIONS OF NW
CT UNTIL DAYBREAK. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE FCST AREA...AND ALLOW THE DEWPTS TO FALL INTO 50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTH AND WEST...AND POSSIBLY SOME
U30S/40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PACK. H850 TEMPS FALL INTO THE +11C
TO +14C RANGE FROM THE E/NE TO W/SW OVER THE FCST AREA WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND 50S NORTH AND WEST...EXCEPT FOR SOME U40S
OVER PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN DURING THE DAY
FROM SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE H850-H925 LAYER. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BURN OFF DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE. H850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 12C TO 14C RANGE. OUR
FORECAST WAS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAMMOS/GFSMOS GUIDANCE
WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT...BUT
MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S TO U70S OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. WE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST
GRIDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION WITH MID AND U50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA TO START
THE DAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING. ACTUALLY...A
CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE SETS UP OVER UPSTATE NY. MIXING DEPTHS
LOOK TO BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. H850 TEMPS ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL
BE IN THE 13C TO 15C RANGE. THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SINKING OR
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING WITH U70S TO L80S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE WITH THE RIDGE IN CONTROL.
THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE WITH ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. SOME U40S ARE POSSIBLE OVER SRN VT...THE NRN
BERKS...AND SRN DACKS. SOME SHALLOW RADIATIVE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN. SUNDAY...TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
START TO INCREASE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SETTING
UP E/SE OF CAPE COD. HIGHS WILL BE IN LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO LABOR DAY WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
AROUND +1 TO +2 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH MID LEVEL WARMTH KEEPING A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...FULL SUNSHINE AND A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEYS
LOCATIONS LABOR DAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. THEN A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES FOR
TUESDAY...BUT COULD COMPLETELY WASH OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
AREA AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS
SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WILL MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY
WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP AS WELL.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW COOL THE AIR WILL BE
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE MAY STILL REMAIN ALONG
THE EAST COAST. SO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KPOU/KALB TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT
KPOU AND KALB. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND CAN
AMEND LATER IF CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC. AFTER 14Z
FRIDAY...KALB AND KGFL SHOULD BE VFR ONCE AGAIN...WHILE AN MVFR
CEILING COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO BREAK UP AT KPSF AND
KPOU.

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT TRENDING TO CALM. NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER.

AN EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY IS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MAXIMUM
RH VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER EXCELLENT RECOVERY OF
95 TO 100 PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH FROM ANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THE MID WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 032336
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE DISSIPATING...AND COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TOO LITTLE TO ACKNOWLEDGE IN FORECAST THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY FADING. LIGHT
WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE SOME PATCHY
OR AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT...AND KEEPING THAT IN THE FORECAST.
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN ADDITION TO TAKING THE
RAIN CHANCES OUT. MORE DETAILS ON WEATHER TRENDS LATER TONIGHT IN
PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

A CANADIAN SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC OVERNIGHT.
THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA...AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY MATERIALIZE. FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEERING FROM THE N/NE TO E/NE...SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE ALONG THE UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/LITCHFIELD
HILLS. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS PORTIONS OF NW
CT UNTIL DAYBREAK. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE FCST AREA...AND ALLOW THE DEWPTS TO FALL INTO 50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTH AND WEST...AND POSSIBLY SOME
U30S/40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PACK. H850 TEMPS FALL INTO THE +11C
TO +14C RANGE FROM THE E/NE TO W/SW OVER THE FCST AREA WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND 50S NORTH AND WEST...EXCEPT FOR SOME U40S
OVER PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN DURING THE DAY
FROM SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE H850-H925 LAYER. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BURN OFF DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE. H850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 12C TO 14C RANGE. OUR
FORECAST WAS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAMMOS/GFSMOS GUIDANCE
WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT...BUT
MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S TO U70S OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. WE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST
GRIDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION WITH MID AND U50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA TO START
THE DAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING. ACTUALLY...A
CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE SETS UP OVER UPSTATE NY. MIXING DEPTHS
LOOK TO BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. H850 TEMPS ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL
BE IN THE 13C TO 15C RANGE. THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SINKING OR
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING WITH U70S TO L80S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE WITH THE RIDGE IN CONTROL.
THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE WITH ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. SOME U40S ARE POSSIBLE OVER SRN VT...THE NRN
BERKS...AND SRN DACKS. SOME SHALLOW RADIATIVE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN. SUNDAY...TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
START TO INCREASE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SETTING
UP E/SE OF CAPE COD. HIGHS WILL BE IN LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO LABOR DAY WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
AROUND +1 TO +2 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH MID LEVEL WARMTH KEEPING A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...FULL SUNSHINE AND A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEYS
LOCATIONS LABOR DAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. THEN A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES FOR
TUESDAY...BUT COULD COMPLETELY WASH OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
AREA AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS
SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WILL MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY
WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP AS WELL.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW COOL THE AIR WILL BE
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE MAY STILL REMAIN ALONG
THE EAST COAST. SO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KPOU/KALB TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT
KPOU AND KALB. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND CAN
AMEND LATER IF CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC. AFTER 14Z
FRIDAY...KALB AND KGFL SHOULD BE VFR ONCE AGAIN...WHILE AN MVFR
CEILING COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO BREAK UP AT KPSF AND
KPOU.

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT TRENDING TO CALM. NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER.

AN EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY IS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MAXIMUM
RH VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER EXCELLENT RECOVERY OF
95 TO 100 PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH FROM ANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THE MID WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 032336
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE DISSIPATING...AND COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TOO LITTLE TO ACKNOWLEDGE IN FORECAST THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY FADING. LIGHT
WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE SOME PATCHY
OR AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT...AND KEEPING THAT IN THE FORECAST.
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN ADDITION TO TAKING THE
RAIN CHANCES OUT. MORE DETAILS ON WEATHER TRENDS LATER TONIGHT IN
PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

A CANADIAN SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC OVERNIGHT.
THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA...AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY MATERIALIZE. FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEERING FROM THE N/NE TO E/NE...SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE ALONG THE UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/LITCHFIELD
HILLS. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS PORTIONS OF NW
CT UNTIL DAYBREAK. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE FCST AREA...AND ALLOW THE DEWPTS TO FALL INTO 50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTH AND WEST...AND POSSIBLY SOME
U30S/40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PACK. H850 TEMPS FALL INTO THE +11C
TO +14C RANGE FROM THE E/NE TO W/SW OVER THE FCST AREA WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND 50S NORTH AND WEST...EXCEPT FOR SOME U40S
OVER PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN DURING THE DAY
FROM SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE H850-H925 LAYER. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BURN OFF DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE. H850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 12C TO 14C RANGE. OUR
FORECAST WAS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAMMOS/GFSMOS GUIDANCE
WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT...BUT
MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S TO U70S OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. WE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST
GRIDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION WITH MID AND U50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA TO START
THE DAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING. ACTUALLY...A
CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE SETS UP OVER UPSTATE NY. MIXING DEPTHS
LOOK TO BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. H850 TEMPS ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL
BE IN THE 13C TO 15C RANGE. THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SINKING OR
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING WITH U70S TO L80S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE WITH THE RIDGE IN CONTROL.
THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE WITH ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. SOME U40S ARE POSSIBLE OVER SRN VT...THE NRN
BERKS...AND SRN DACKS. SOME SHALLOW RADIATIVE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN. SUNDAY...TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
START TO INCREASE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SETTING
UP E/SE OF CAPE COD. HIGHS WILL BE IN LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO LABOR DAY WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
AROUND +1 TO +2 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH MID LEVEL WARMTH KEEPING A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...FULL SUNSHINE AND A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEYS
LOCATIONS LABOR DAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. THEN A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES FOR
TUESDAY...BUT COULD COMPLETELY WASH OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
AREA AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS
SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WILL MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY
WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP AS WELL.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW COOL THE AIR WILL BE
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE MAY STILL REMAIN ALONG
THE EAST COAST. SO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KPOU/KALB TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT
KPOU AND KALB. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND CAN
AMEND LATER IF CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC. AFTER 14Z
FRIDAY...KALB AND KGFL SHOULD BE VFR ONCE AGAIN...WHILE AN MVFR
CEILING COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO BREAK UP AT KPSF AND
KPOU.

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT TRENDING TO CALM. NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER.

AN EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY IS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MAXIMUM
RH VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER EXCELLENT RECOVERY OF
95 TO 100 PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH FROM ANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THE MID WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 032336
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE DISSIPATING...AND COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TOO LITTLE TO ACKNOWLEDGE IN FORECAST THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY FADING. LIGHT
WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE SOME PATCHY
OR AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT...AND KEEPING THAT IN THE FORECAST.
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN ADDITION TO TAKING THE
RAIN CHANCES OUT. MORE DETAILS ON WEATHER TRENDS LATER TONIGHT IN
PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

A CANADIAN SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC OVERNIGHT.
THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA...AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY MATERIALIZE. FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEERING FROM THE N/NE TO E/NE...SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE ALONG THE UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/LITCHFIELD
HILLS. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS PORTIONS OF NW
CT UNTIL DAYBREAK. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE FCST AREA...AND ALLOW THE DEWPTS TO FALL INTO 50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTH AND WEST...AND POSSIBLY SOME
U30S/40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PACK. H850 TEMPS FALL INTO THE +11C
TO +14C RANGE FROM THE E/NE TO W/SW OVER THE FCST AREA WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND 50S NORTH AND WEST...EXCEPT FOR SOME U40S
OVER PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN DURING THE DAY
FROM SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE H850-H925 LAYER. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BURN OFF DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE. H850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 12C TO 14C RANGE. OUR
FORECAST WAS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAMMOS/GFSMOS GUIDANCE
WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT...BUT
MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S TO U70S OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. WE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST
GRIDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION WITH MID AND U50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA TO START
THE DAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING. ACTUALLY...A
CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE SETS UP OVER UPSTATE NY. MIXING DEPTHS
LOOK TO BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. H850 TEMPS ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL
BE IN THE 13C TO 15C RANGE. THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SINKING OR
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING WITH U70S TO L80S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE WITH THE RIDGE IN CONTROL.
THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE WITH ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. SOME U40S ARE POSSIBLE OVER SRN VT...THE NRN
BERKS...AND SRN DACKS. SOME SHALLOW RADIATIVE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN. SUNDAY...TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
START TO INCREASE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SETTING
UP E/SE OF CAPE COD. HIGHS WILL BE IN LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO LABOR DAY WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
AROUND +1 TO +2 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH MID LEVEL WARMTH KEEPING A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...FULL SUNSHINE AND A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEYS
LOCATIONS LABOR DAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. THEN A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES FOR
TUESDAY...BUT COULD COMPLETELY WASH OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
AREA AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS
SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WILL MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY
WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP AS WELL.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW COOL THE AIR WILL BE
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE MAY STILL REMAIN ALONG
THE EAST COAST. SO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KPOU/KALB TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT
KPOU AND KALB. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND CAN
AMEND LATER IF CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC. AFTER 14Z
FRIDAY...KALB AND KGFL SHOULD BE VFR ONCE AGAIN...WHILE AN MVFR
CEILING COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO BREAK UP AT KPSF AND
KPOU.

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT TRENDING TO CALM. NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER.

AN EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY IS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MAXIMUM
RH VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER EXCELLENT RECOVERY OF
95 TO 100 PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH FROM ANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THE MID WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 032336
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE DISSIPATING...AND COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TOO LITTLE TO ACKNOWLEDGE IN FORECAST THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY FADING. LIGHT
WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE SOME PATCHY
OR AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT...AND KEEPING THAT IN THE FORECAST.
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN ADDITION TO TAKING THE
RAIN CHANCES OUT. MORE DETAILS ON WEATHER TRENDS LATER TONIGHT IN
PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

A CANADIAN SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC OVERNIGHT.
THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA...AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY MATERIALIZE. FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEERING FROM THE N/NE TO E/NE...SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE ALONG THE UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/LITCHFIELD
HILLS. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS PORTIONS OF NW
CT UNTIL DAYBREAK. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE FCST AREA...AND ALLOW THE DEWPTS TO FALL INTO 50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTH AND WEST...AND POSSIBLY SOME
U30S/40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PACK. H850 TEMPS FALL INTO THE +11C
TO +14C RANGE FROM THE E/NE TO W/SW OVER THE FCST AREA WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND 50S NORTH AND WEST...EXCEPT FOR SOME U40S
OVER PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN DURING THE DAY
FROM SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE H850-H925 LAYER. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BURN OFF DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE. H850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 12C TO 14C RANGE. OUR
FORECAST WAS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAMMOS/GFSMOS GUIDANCE
WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT...BUT
MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S TO U70S OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. WE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST
GRIDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION WITH MID AND U50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA TO START
THE DAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING. ACTUALLY...A
CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE SETS UP OVER UPSTATE NY. MIXING DEPTHS
LOOK TO BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. H850 TEMPS ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL
BE IN THE 13C TO 15C RANGE. THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SINKING OR
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING WITH U70S TO L80S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE WITH THE RIDGE IN CONTROL.
THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE WITH ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. SOME U40S ARE POSSIBLE OVER SRN VT...THE NRN
BERKS...AND SRN DACKS. SOME SHALLOW RADIATIVE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN. SUNDAY...TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
START TO INCREASE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SETTING
UP E/SE OF CAPE COD. HIGHS WILL BE IN LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO LABOR DAY WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
AROUND +1 TO +2 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH MID LEVEL WARMTH KEEPING A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...FULL SUNSHINE AND A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEYS
LOCATIONS LABOR DAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. THEN A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES FOR
TUESDAY...BUT COULD COMPLETELY WASH OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
AREA AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS
SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WILL MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY
WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP AS WELL.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW COOL THE AIR WILL BE
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE MAY STILL REMAIN ALONG
THE EAST COAST. SO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KPOU/KALB TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT
KPOU AND KALB. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND CAN
AMEND LATER IF CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC. AFTER 14Z
FRIDAY...KALB AND KGFL SHOULD BE VFR ONCE AGAIN...WHILE AN MVFR
CEILING COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO BREAK UP AT KPSF AND
KPOU.

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT TRENDING TO CALM. NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER.

AN EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY IS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MAXIMUM
RH VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER EXCELLENT RECOVERY OF
95 TO 100 PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH FROM ANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THE MID WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 032114
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
514 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO FOCUS A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA.
THE NAM INSTABILITY FORECAST WAS A LITTLE MORE ON TRACK WITH SFC
DEWPTS POOLING IN THE U60S TO AROUND 70F OVER PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG TO BE IN
PLACE IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION
AND MOHAWK VALLEY. DESPITE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 10-20
KTS...THE STORMS HAVE MAINTAINED UPDRAFTS TALL ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL. THE STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED PULSE-TYPE
CHARACTERISTICS...AND CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES OFF THEIR
COLD POOLS. THE DCAPE VALUES REMAIN IN THE 750-1000 J/KG
RANGE...AND ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PCPN
LOADING INTO THE CELLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. PWATS REMAIN IN THE
1.25-1.50 RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE SHOWERS/TSTORMS.

THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DIURNAL HEATING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AS THE
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD. WE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT AND LOW CHC
POPS UNTIL 00Z OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...AND THEN MAINTAIN THEM
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A CANADIAN SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC OVERNIGHT.
THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA...AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY MATERIALIZE. FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEERING FROM THE N/NE TO E/NE...SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE ALONG THE UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/LITCHFIELD
HILLS. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS PORTIONS OF NW
CT UNTIL DAYBREAK. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE FCST AREA...AND ALLOW THE DEWPTS TO FALL INTO 50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTH AND WEST...AND POSSIBLY SOME
U30S/40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PACK. H850 TEMPS FALL INTO THE
+11C TO +14C RANGE FROM THE E/NE TO W/SW OVER THE FCST AREA WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AND 50S NORTH AND WEST...EXCEPT FOR SOME
U40S OVER PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN DURING THE DAY
FROM SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE H850-H925 LAYER. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BURN OFF DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE. H850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 12C TO 14C RANGE. OUR
FORECAST WAS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAMMOS/GFSMOS GUIDANCE
WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT...BUT
MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S TO U70S OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. WE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST
GRIDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION WITH MID AND U50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA TO START
THE DAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING. ACTUALLY...A
CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE SETS UP OVER UPSTATE NY. MIXING DEPTHS
LOOK TO BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. H850 TEMPS ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL
BE IN THE 13C TO 15C RANGE. THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SINKING OR
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING WITH U70S TO L80S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE WITH THE RIDGE IN CONTROL.
THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE WITH ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. SOME U40S ARE POSSIBLE OVER SRN VT...THE NRN
BERKS...AND SRN DACKS. SOME SHALLOW RADIATIVE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN. SUNDAY...TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
START TO INCREASE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SETTING
UP E/SE OF CAPE COD. HIGHS WILL BE IN LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO LABOR DAY WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
AROUND +1 TO +2 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH MID LEVEL WARMTH KEEPING A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...FULL SUNSHINE AND A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEYS
LOCATIONS LABOR DAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. THEN A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES FOR
TUESDAY...BUT COULD COMPLETELY WASH OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
AREA AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS
SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WILL MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY
WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP AS WELL.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW COOL THE AIR WILL BE
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE MAY STILL REMAIN ALONG
THE EAST COAST. SO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KPOU/KALB TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTN/EVE MEANS IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME WHEN ANY SHWR/TSTMS WILL
AFFECT A TAF SITE...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF
FORECASTS.

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...BUT NOT AS LIKELY AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
SINCE THE REGION WILL BE IN A DRIER AIRMASS AND THERE COULD BE A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO FOG FORECAST FOR
KALB/KPOU. AFTER 14Z FRIDAY...ALL TAF WILL BE VFR ONCE AGAIN.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. THE WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR CALM LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER.

AN EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY IS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MAXIMUM
RH VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER EXCELLENT RECOVERY OF
95 TO 100 PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH FROM ANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THE MID WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 032114
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
514 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO FOCUS A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA.
THE NAM INSTABILITY FORECAST WAS A LITTLE MORE ON TRACK WITH SFC
DEWPTS POOLING IN THE U60S TO AROUND 70F OVER PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG TO BE IN
PLACE IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION
AND MOHAWK VALLEY. DESPITE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 10-20
KTS...THE STORMS HAVE MAINTAINED UPDRAFTS TALL ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL. THE STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED PULSE-TYPE
CHARACTERISTICS...AND CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES OFF THEIR
COLD POOLS. THE DCAPE VALUES REMAIN IN THE 750-1000 J/KG
RANGE...AND ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PCPN
LOADING INTO THE CELLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. PWATS REMAIN IN THE
1.25-1.50 RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE SHOWERS/TSTORMS.

THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DIURNAL HEATING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AS THE
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD. WE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT AND LOW CHC
POPS UNTIL 00Z OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...AND THEN MAINTAIN THEM
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A CANADIAN SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC OVERNIGHT.
THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA...AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY MATERIALIZE. FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEERING FROM THE N/NE TO E/NE...SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE ALONG THE UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/LITCHFIELD
HILLS. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS PORTIONS OF NW
CT UNTIL DAYBREAK. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE FCST AREA...AND ALLOW THE DEWPTS TO FALL INTO 50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTH AND WEST...AND POSSIBLY SOME
U30S/40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PACK. H850 TEMPS FALL INTO THE
+11C TO +14C RANGE FROM THE E/NE TO W/SW OVER THE FCST AREA WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AND 50S NORTH AND WEST...EXCEPT FOR SOME
U40S OVER PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN DURING THE DAY
FROM SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE H850-H925 LAYER. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BURN OFF DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE. H850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 12C TO 14C RANGE. OUR
FORECAST WAS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAMMOS/GFSMOS GUIDANCE
WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT...BUT
MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S TO U70S OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. WE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST
GRIDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION WITH MID AND U50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA TO START
THE DAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING. ACTUALLY...A
CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE SETS UP OVER UPSTATE NY. MIXING DEPTHS
LOOK TO BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. H850 TEMPS ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL
BE IN THE 13C TO 15C RANGE. THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SINKING OR
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING WITH U70S TO L80S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE WITH THE RIDGE IN CONTROL.
THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE WITH ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. SOME U40S ARE POSSIBLE OVER SRN VT...THE NRN
BERKS...AND SRN DACKS. SOME SHALLOW RADIATIVE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN. SUNDAY...TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
START TO INCREASE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SETTING
UP E/SE OF CAPE COD. HIGHS WILL BE IN LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO LABOR DAY WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
AROUND +1 TO +2 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH MID LEVEL WARMTH KEEPING A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...FULL SUNSHINE AND A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEYS
LOCATIONS LABOR DAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. THEN A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES FOR
TUESDAY...BUT COULD COMPLETELY WASH OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR
AREA AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS
SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WILL MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY
WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP AS WELL.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW COOL THE AIR WILL BE
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE MAY STILL REMAIN ALONG
THE EAST COAST. SO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KPOU/KALB TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTN/EVE MEANS IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME WHEN ANY SHWR/TSTMS WILL
AFFECT A TAF SITE...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF
FORECASTS.

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...BUT NOT AS LIKELY AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
SINCE THE REGION WILL BE IN A DRIER AIRMASS AND THERE COULD BE A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO FOG FORECAST FOR
KALB/KPOU. AFTER 14Z FRIDAY...ALL TAF WILL BE VFR ONCE AGAIN.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. THE WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR CALM LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER.

AN EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY IS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MAXIMUM
RH VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER EXCELLENT RECOVERY OF
95 TO 100 PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH FROM ANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THE MID WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 032039
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
439 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...AND THROUGH THIS LABOR
DAY WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
430 PM UPDATE...RADAR INDICATED THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP NORTH/UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND IN AN AREA WITH HIGHER SBCAPE/K-
INDEX VALUES. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO OUR REGION TRACKING GENERALLY NW TO SE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS A RELATIVELY THIN
RIBBON OF HIGHER K-INDEX VALUES...SO T-STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT
DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE BROKEN LINE THAT IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE
THIS AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIURNALLY DRIVEN...BUFKIT SHOWS
SOME LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO TONIGHT.  THUS EXPECTING
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. ERN MA/RI WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS. SHOULD HAVE LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATE. MINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S HOWEVER MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF SPOTS IN THE FAR INTERIOR DIP INTO UPPER 50S NEAR
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...EXPECTING BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA.  SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE MORNING.  HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT...WITH THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
EAST SLOPES BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS...AS WELL AS EAST COASTAL
MA THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/ONSHORE WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...TEMPS WILL DIP INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

03/12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE FOR THE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL MEAN MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WELL...MAXIMIZING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SLATED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

430 PM UPDATE...

THRU THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT
-SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS
MAINLY FROM THE N/NE.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY
STRATUS AND FOG.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS BECOME PREVAILING NE/E.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING NEAR
5 FEET FIRST ON THE E WATERS PROBABLY BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI...THEN
THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET.  ELSEWHERE...WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER...OR NEAR...THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEARSHORE...GIVING WAY TO A MORE
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 032039
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
439 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...AND THROUGH THIS LABOR
DAY WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
430 PM UPDATE...RADAR INDICATED THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP NORTH/UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND IN AN AREA WITH HIGHER SBCAPE/K-
INDEX VALUES. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO OUR REGION TRACKING GENERALLY NW TO SE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS A RELATIVELY THIN
RIBBON OF HIGHER K-INDEX VALUES...SO T-STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT
DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE BROKEN LINE THAT IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE
THIS AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIURNALLY DRIVEN...BUFKIT SHOWS
SOME LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO TONIGHT.  THUS EXPECTING
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. ERN MA/RI WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS. SHOULD HAVE LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATE. MINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S HOWEVER MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF SPOTS IN THE FAR INTERIOR DIP INTO UPPER 50S NEAR
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...EXPECTING BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA.  SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE MORNING.  HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT...WITH THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
EAST SLOPES BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS...AS WELL AS EAST COASTAL
MA THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/ONSHORE WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...TEMPS WILL DIP INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

03/12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE FOR THE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL MEAN MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WELL...MAXIMIZING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SLATED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

430 PM UPDATE...

THRU THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT
-SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS
MAINLY FROM THE N/NE.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY
STRATUS AND FOG.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS BECOME PREVAILING NE/E.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING NEAR
5 FEET FIRST ON THE E WATERS PROBABLY BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI...THEN
THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET.  ELSEWHERE...WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER...OR NEAR...THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEARSHORE...GIVING WAY TO A MORE
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 032039
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
439 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...AND THROUGH THIS LABOR
DAY WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
430 PM UPDATE...RADAR INDICATED THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP NORTH/UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND IN AN AREA WITH HIGHER SBCAPE/K-
INDEX VALUES. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO OUR REGION TRACKING GENERALLY NW TO SE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS A RELATIVELY THIN
RIBBON OF HIGHER K-INDEX VALUES...SO T-STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT
DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE BROKEN LINE THAT IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE
THIS AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIURNALLY DRIVEN...BUFKIT SHOWS
SOME LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO TONIGHT.  THUS EXPECTING
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. ERN MA/RI WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS. SHOULD HAVE LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATE. MINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S HOWEVER MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF SPOTS IN THE FAR INTERIOR DIP INTO UPPER 50S NEAR
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...EXPECTING BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA.  SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE MORNING.  HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT...WITH THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
EAST SLOPES BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS...AS WELL AS EAST COASTAL
MA THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/ONSHORE WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...TEMPS WILL DIP INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

03/12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE FOR THE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL MEAN MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WELL...MAXIMIZING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SLATED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

430 PM UPDATE...

THRU THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT
-SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS
MAINLY FROM THE N/NE.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY
STRATUS AND FOG.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS BECOME PREVAILING NE/E.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING NEAR
5 FEET FIRST ON THE E WATERS PROBABLY BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI...THEN
THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET.  ELSEWHERE...WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER...OR NEAR...THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEARSHORE...GIVING WAY TO A MORE
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 032039
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
439 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...AND THROUGH THIS LABOR
DAY WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
430 PM UPDATE...RADAR INDICATED THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP NORTH/UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND IN AN AREA WITH HIGHER SBCAPE/K-
INDEX VALUES. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO OUR REGION TRACKING GENERALLY NW TO SE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS A RELATIVELY THIN
RIBBON OF HIGHER K-INDEX VALUES...SO T-STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT
DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE BROKEN LINE THAT IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE
THIS AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIURNALLY DRIVEN...BUFKIT SHOWS
SOME LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO TONIGHT.  THUS EXPECTING
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. ERN MA/RI WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS. SHOULD HAVE LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATE. MINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S HOWEVER MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF SPOTS IN THE FAR INTERIOR DIP INTO UPPER 50S NEAR
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...EXPECTING BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA.  SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE MORNING.  HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT...WITH THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
EAST SLOPES BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS...AS WELL AS EAST COASTAL
MA THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/ONSHORE WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...TEMPS WILL DIP INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

03/12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE FOR THE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL MEAN MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WELL...MAXIMIZING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SLATED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

430 PM UPDATE...

THRU THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT
-SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS
MAINLY FROM THE N/NE.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY
STRATUS AND FOG.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS BECOME PREVAILING NE/E.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING NEAR
5 FEET FIRST ON THE E WATERS PROBABLY BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI...THEN
THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET.  ELSEWHERE...WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER...OR NEAR...THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEARSHORE...GIVING WAY TO A MORE
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KALY 032037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO FOCUS A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA.
THE NAM INSTABILITY FORECAST WAS A LITTLE MORE ON TRACK WITH SFC
DEWPTS POOLING IN THE U60S TO AROUND 70F OVER PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG TO BE IN
PLACE IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION
AND MOHAWK VALLEY. DESPITE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 10-20
KTS...THE STORMS HAVE MAINTAINED UPDRAFTS TALL ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL. THE STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED PULSE-TYPE
CHARACTERISTICS...AND CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES OFF THEIR
COLD POOLS. THE DCAPE VALUES REMAIN IN THE 750-1000 J/KG
RANGE...AND ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PCPN
LOADING INTO THE CELLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. PWATS REMAIN IN THE
1.25-1.50 RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE SHOWERS/TSTORMS.

THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DIURNAL HEATING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AS THE
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD. WE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT AND LOW CHC
POPS UNTIL 00Z OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...AND THEN MAINTAIN THEM
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A CANADIAN SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC OVERNIGHT.
THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA...AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY MATERIALIZE. FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEERING FROM THE N/NE TO E/NE...SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE ALONG THE UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/LITCHFIELD
HILLS. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS PORTIONS OF NW
CT UNTIL DAYBREAK. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE FCST AREA...AND ALLOW THE DEWPTS TO FALL INTO 50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTH AND WEST...AND POSSIBLY SOME
U30S/40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PACK. H850 TEMPS FALL INTO THE
+11C TO +14C RANGE FROM THE E/NE TO W/SW OVER THE FCST AREA WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AND 50S NORTH AND WEST...EXCEPT FOR SOME
U40S OVER PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN DURING THE DAY
FROM SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE H850-H925 LAYER. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BURN OFF DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE. H850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 12C TO 14C RANGE. OUR
FORECAST WAS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAMMOS/GFSMOS GUIDANCE
WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT...BUT
MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S TO U70S OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. WE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST
GRIDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION WITH MID AND U50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA TO START
THE DAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING. ACTUALLY...A
CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE SETS UP OVER UPSTATE NY. MIXING DEPTHS
LOOK TO BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. H850 TEMPS ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL
BE IN THE 13C TO 15C RANGE. THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SINKING OR
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING WITH U70S TO L80S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE WITH THE RIDGE IN CONTROL.
THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE WITH ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. SOME U40S ARE POSSIBLE OVER SRN VT...THE NRN
BERKS...AND SRN DACKS. SOME SHALLOW RADIATIVE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN. SUNDAY...TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
START TO INCREASE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SETTING
UP E/SE OF CAPE COD. HIGHS WILL BE IN LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KPOU/KALB TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTN/EVE MEANS IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME WHEN ANY SHWR/TSTMS WILL
AFFECT A TAF SITE...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF
FORECASTS.

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...BUT NOT AS LIKELY AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
SINCE THE REGION WILL BE IN A DRIER AIRMASS AND THERE COULD BE A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO FOG FORECAST FOR
KALB/KPOU. AFTER 14Z FRIDAY...ALL TAF WILL BE VFR ONCE AGAIN.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. THE WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR CALM LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER.

AN EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY IS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MAXIMUM
RH VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER EXCELLENT RECOVERY OF
95 TO 100 PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH FROM ANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THE MID WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV/KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 032037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO FOCUS A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA.
THE NAM INSTABILITY FORECAST WAS A LITTLE MORE ON TRACK WITH SFC
DEWPTS POOLING IN THE U60S TO AROUND 70F OVER PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG TO BE IN
PLACE IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION
AND MOHAWK VALLEY. DESPITE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 10-20
KTS...THE STORMS HAVE MAINTAINED UPDRAFTS TALL ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL. THE STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED PULSE-TYPE
CHARACTERISTICS...AND CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES OFF THEIR
COLD POOLS. THE DCAPE VALUES REMAIN IN THE 750-1000 J/KG
RANGE...AND ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PCPN
LOADING INTO THE CELLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. PWATS REMAIN IN THE
1.25-1.50 RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE SHOWERS/TSTORMS.

THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DIURNAL HEATING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AS THE
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD. WE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT AND LOW CHC
POPS UNTIL 00Z OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA...AND THEN MAINTAIN THEM
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A CANADIAN SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC OVERNIGHT.
THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA...AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY MATERIALIZE. FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEERING FROM THE N/NE TO E/NE...SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE ALONG THE UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/LITCHFIELD
HILLS. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS PORTIONS OF NW
CT UNTIL DAYBREAK. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE FCST AREA...AND ALLOW THE DEWPTS TO FALL INTO 50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTH AND WEST...AND POSSIBLY SOME
U30S/40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PACK. H850 TEMPS FALL INTO THE
+11C TO +14C RANGE FROM THE E/NE TO W/SW OVER THE FCST AREA WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...AND 50S NORTH AND WEST...EXCEPT FOR SOME
U40S OVER PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN DURING THE DAY
FROM SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE H850-H925 LAYER. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BURN OFF DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE. H850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 12C TO 14C RANGE. OUR
FORECAST WAS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAMMOS/GFSMOS GUIDANCE
WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT...BUT
MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S TO U70S OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. WE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST
GRIDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION WITH MID AND U50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA TO START
THE DAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING. ACTUALLY...A
CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE SETS UP OVER UPSTATE NY. MIXING DEPTHS
LOOK TO BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. H850 TEMPS ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL
BE IN THE 13C TO 15C RANGE. THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SINKING OR
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING WITH U70S TO L80S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE WITH THE RIDGE IN CONTROL.
THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE WITH ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. SOME U40S ARE POSSIBLE OVER SRN VT...THE NRN
BERKS...AND SRN DACKS. SOME SHALLOW RADIATIVE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN. SUNDAY...TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
START TO INCREASE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SETTING
UP E/SE OF CAPE COD. HIGHS WILL BE IN LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KPOU/KALB TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTN/EVE MEANS IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME WHEN ANY SHWR/TSTMS WILL
AFFECT A TAF SITE...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF
FORECASTS.

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...BUT NOT AS LIKELY AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
SINCE THE REGION WILL BE IN A DRIER AIRMASS AND THERE COULD BE A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO FOG FORECAST FOR
KALB/KPOU. AFTER 14Z FRIDAY...ALL TAF WILL BE VFR ONCE AGAIN.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. THE WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR CALM LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.  THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER.

AN EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY IS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MAXIMUM
RH VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER EXCELLENT RECOVERY OF
95 TO 100 PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH FROM ANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THE MID WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV/KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031832
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
232 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK YIELDING MAINLY DRY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
230 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND T-STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOR MOST OF OUR
AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S STILL LOOK ON TRACK AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE...LOWER HIGH TEMPS THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

===================================================================

LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CI DEBRIS FROM EARLY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPILL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPITE OF THE
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS ALREADY REPORTING
MODEST FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN CT/MA.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...STALLING AS IT MEETS THE MORE ROBUST INCOMING SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM THE S. BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL SHIFT SE...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VT/NH THANKS TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE BETTER REALIZING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THEN IT WILL BE
A RACE AGAINST TIME AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS S AND INTERACTS WITH
THE VARIOUS FRONTS /COLD AND SEA BREEZE/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO
MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THE I-495 CORRIDOR
AND INTO RI...WHERE THE FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO MEET. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG...BUT WITH THE
CORE OF BEST LAPSE RATES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING...IT MAY STRUGGLE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CAPPING BOTH
T-STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SCT STILL REMAINS THE BEST
FORECAST. PWATS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT GIVEN THE
SCT NATURE IT/S POSSIBLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN DRY.

SHOULD ANY STORMS HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...THE UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK. THEREFORE...STILL NOT MENTIONING ANY ENHANCED
WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE AS HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL
WOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED EVENT.

HEAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY INLAND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
FURTHER E. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 90S W...TO LOW 80S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...LINGERING RISK OF ISOLATED -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT SO WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR MA/CT ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF RAIN FALLS. ERN MA/RI WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AM HOURS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...SO MINS
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN SPITE OF COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING OVER FROM
THE NE.

FRI...
BREEZY AND COOLER THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND H85
TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND +12C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER WILL LEAD TO STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT
BL DEPTH. THEREFORE...UNLIKELY MIXING TO H85...LIMITING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOW 70S WILL BE NEAR
SHORE...THANKS TO SST/S NEAR THESE VALUES. THE NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ITS NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET BEGINS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THUS OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY AT OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT THE EURO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +18C ACROSS SNE BY MON AND
TUE! GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AT
+16C/+17C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. REGARDING PRECIP...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POTENTIAL WILDCARD NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
CONUS MAY BE LINKED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMES ABSORBED
AND POTENTIALLY ENERGIZES THE NORTHERN STREAM.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...

ANOMALOUS 1025 MB ANTICYCLONE/SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO SNE. THIS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO YIELD COOL TEMPS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE U40S! THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE /H5 HEIGHTS OF 591 DM AND
1024 MB SFC HI/ OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE U70S AND L80S SAT AFTN AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUN AND
MON HOWEVER HUMIDITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH DEW PTS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE U50S AND L60S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES TUE BUT MAY
JUST WASHOUT AS RIDGE WINS OUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAY ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A MARINE STRATUS DECK DRIFTING
EAST OF BLOCK ISLAND THAT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF LOWER CIGS AT ACK THIS
AFTERNOON IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...HOWEVER THE TREND ON SATELLITE IS
GRADUAL DISSIPATION. OTHERWISE...LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY
SCT -SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TONIGHT. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS EVENING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS...THEN LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NE WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS BECOME PREVAILING NE/E.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT BACKDOORS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED ROUGH CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...
N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 KT AT TIMES EARLY AM INTO ABOUT MID DAY.
SEAS INCREASE AS WELL...REACHING NEAR 5 FT FIRST ON THE E
WATERS...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRI...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIGHT/VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031832
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
232 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK YIELDING MAINLY DRY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
230 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND T-STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOR MOST OF OUR
AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S STILL LOOK ON TRACK AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE...LOWER HIGH TEMPS THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

===================================================================

LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CI DEBRIS FROM EARLY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPILL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPITE OF THE
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS ALREADY REPORTING
MODEST FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN CT/MA.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...STALLING AS IT MEETS THE MORE ROBUST INCOMING SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM THE S. BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL SHIFT SE...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VT/NH THANKS TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE BETTER REALIZING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THEN IT WILL BE
A RACE AGAINST TIME AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS S AND INTERACTS WITH
THE VARIOUS FRONTS /COLD AND SEA BREEZE/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO
MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THE I-495 CORRIDOR
AND INTO RI...WHERE THE FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO MEET. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG...BUT WITH THE
CORE OF BEST LAPSE RATES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING...IT MAY STRUGGLE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CAPPING BOTH
T-STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SCT STILL REMAINS THE BEST
FORECAST. PWATS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT GIVEN THE
SCT NATURE IT/S POSSIBLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN DRY.

SHOULD ANY STORMS HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...THE UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK. THEREFORE...STILL NOT MENTIONING ANY ENHANCED
WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE AS HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL
WOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED EVENT.

HEAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY INLAND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
FURTHER E. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 90S W...TO LOW 80S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...LINGERING RISK OF ISOLATED -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT SO WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR MA/CT ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF RAIN FALLS. ERN MA/RI WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AM HOURS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...SO MINS
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN SPITE OF COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING OVER FROM
THE NE.

FRI...
BREEZY AND COOLER THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND H85
TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND +12C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER WILL LEAD TO STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT
BL DEPTH. THEREFORE...UNLIKELY MIXING TO H85...LIMITING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOW 70S WILL BE NEAR
SHORE...THANKS TO SST/S NEAR THESE VALUES. THE NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ITS NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET BEGINS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THUS OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY AT OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT THE EURO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +18C ACROSS SNE BY MON AND
TUE! GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AT
+16C/+17C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. REGARDING PRECIP...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POTENTIAL WILDCARD NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
CONUS MAY BE LINKED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMES ABSORBED
AND POTENTIALLY ENERGIZES THE NORTHERN STREAM.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...

ANOMALOUS 1025 MB ANTICYCLONE/SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO SNE. THIS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO YIELD COOL TEMPS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE U40S! THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE /H5 HEIGHTS OF 591 DM AND
1024 MB SFC HI/ OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE U70S AND L80S SAT AFTN AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUN AND
MON HOWEVER HUMIDITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH DEW PTS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE U50S AND L60S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES TUE BUT MAY
JUST WASHOUT AS RIDGE WINS OUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAY ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A MARINE STRATUS DECK DRIFTING
EAST OF BLOCK ISLAND THAT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF LOWER CIGS AT ACK THIS
AFTERNOON IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...HOWEVER THE TREND ON SATELLITE IS
GRADUAL DISSIPATION. OTHERWISE...LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY
SCT -SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TONIGHT. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS EVENING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS...THEN LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NE WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS BECOME PREVAILING NE/E.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT BACKDOORS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED ROUGH CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...
N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 KT AT TIMES EARLY AM INTO ABOUT MID DAY.
SEAS INCREASE AS WELL...REACHING NEAR 5 FT FIRST ON THE E
WATERS...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRI...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIGHT/VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031832
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
232 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK YIELDING MAINLY DRY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
230 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND T-STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOR MOST OF OUR
AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S STILL LOOK ON TRACK AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE...LOWER HIGH TEMPS THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

===================================================================

LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CI DEBRIS FROM EARLY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPILL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPITE OF THE
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS ALREADY REPORTING
MODEST FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN CT/MA.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...STALLING AS IT MEETS THE MORE ROBUST INCOMING SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM THE S. BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL SHIFT SE...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VT/NH THANKS TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE BETTER REALIZING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THEN IT WILL BE
A RACE AGAINST TIME AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS S AND INTERACTS WITH
THE VARIOUS FRONTS /COLD AND SEA BREEZE/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO
MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THE I-495 CORRIDOR
AND INTO RI...WHERE THE FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO MEET. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG...BUT WITH THE
CORE OF BEST LAPSE RATES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING...IT MAY STRUGGLE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CAPPING BOTH
T-STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SCT STILL REMAINS THE BEST
FORECAST. PWATS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT GIVEN THE
SCT NATURE IT/S POSSIBLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN DRY.

SHOULD ANY STORMS HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...THE UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK. THEREFORE...STILL NOT MENTIONING ANY ENHANCED
WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE AS HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL
WOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED EVENT.

HEAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY INLAND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
FURTHER E. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 90S W...TO LOW 80S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...LINGERING RISK OF ISOLATED -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT SO WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR MA/CT ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF RAIN FALLS. ERN MA/RI WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AM HOURS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...SO MINS
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN SPITE OF COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING OVER FROM
THE NE.

FRI...
BREEZY AND COOLER THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND H85
TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND +12C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER WILL LEAD TO STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT
BL DEPTH. THEREFORE...UNLIKELY MIXING TO H85...LIMITING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOW 70S WILL BE NEAR
SHORE...THANKS TO SST/S NEAR THESE VALUES. THE NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ITS NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET BEGINS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THUS OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY AT OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT THE EURO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +18C ACROSS SNE BY MON AND
TUE! GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AT
+16C/+17C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. REGARDING PRECIP...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POTENTIAL WILDCARD NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
CONUS MAY BE LINKED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMES ABSORBED
AND POTENTIALLY ENERGIZES THE NORTHERN STREAM.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...

ANOMALOUS 1025 MB ANTICYCLONE/SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO SNE. THIS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO YIELD COOL TEMPS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE U40S! THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE /H5 HEIGHTS OF 591 DM AND
1024 MB SFC HI/ OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE U70S AND L80S SAT AFTN AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUN AND
MON HOWEVER HUMIDITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH DEW PTS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE U50S AND L60S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES TUE BUT MAY
JUST WASHOUT AS RIDGE WINS OUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAY ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A MARINE STRATUS DECK DRIFTING
EAST OF BLOCK ISLAND THAT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF LOWER CIGS AT ACK THIS
AFTERNOON IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...HOWEVER THE TREND ON SATELLITE IS
GRADUAL DISSIPATION. OTHERWISE...LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY
SCT -SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TONIGHT. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS EVENING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS...THEN LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NE WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS BECOME PREVAILING NE/E.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT BACKDOORS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED ROUGH CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...
N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 KT AT TIMES EARLY AM INTO ABOUT MID DAY.
SEAS INCREASE AS WELL...REACHING NEAR 5 FT FIRST ON THE E
WATERS...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRI...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIGHT/VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031832
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
232 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK YIELDING MAINLY DRY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
230 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND T-STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOR MOST OF OUR
AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S STILL LOOK ON TRACK AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE...LOWER HIGH TEMPS THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

===================================================================

LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CI DEBRIS FROM EARLY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPILL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPITE OF THE
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS ALREADY REPORTING
MODEST FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN CT/MA.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...STALLING AS IT MEETS THE MORE ROBUST INCOMING SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM THE S. BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL SHIFT SE...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VT/NH THANKS TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE BETTER REALIZING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THEN IT WILL BE
A RACE AGAINST TIME AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS S AND INTERACTS WITH
THE VARIOUS FRONTS /COLD AND SEA BREEZE/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO
MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THE I-495 CORRIDOR
AND INTO RI...WHERE THE FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO MEET. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG...BUT WITH THE
CORE OF BEST LAPSE RATES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING...IT MAY STRUGGLE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CAPPING BOTH
T-STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SCT STILL REMAINS THE BEST
FORECAST. PWATS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT GIVEN THE
SCT NATURE IT/S POSSIBLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN DRY.

SHOULD ANY STORMS HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...THE UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK. THEREFORE...STILL NOT MENTIONING ANY ENHANCED
WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE AS HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL
WOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED EVENT.

HEAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY INLAND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
FURTHER E. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 90S W...TO LOW 80S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...LINGERING RISK OF ISOLATED -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT SO WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR MA/CT ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF RAIN FALLS. ERN MA/RI WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AM HOURS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...SO MINS
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN SPITE OF COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING OVER FROM
THE NE.

FRI...
BREEZY AND COOLER THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND H85
TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND +12C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER WILL LEAD TO STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT
BL DEPTH. THEREFORE...UNLIKELY MIXING TO H85...LIMITING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOW 70S WILL BE NEAR
SHORE...THANKS TO SST/S NEAR THESE VALUES. THE NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ITS NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET BEGINS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THUS OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY AT OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT THE EURO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +18C ACROSS SNE BY MON AND
TUE! GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AT
+16C/+17C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. REGARDING PRECIP...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POTENTIAL WILDCARD NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
CONUS MAY BE LINKED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMES ABSORBED
AND POTENTIALLY ENERGIZES THE NORTHERN STREAM.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...

ANOMALOUS 1025 MB ANTICYCLONE/SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO SNE. THIS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO YIELD COOL TEMPS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE U40S! THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE /H5 HEIGHTS OF 591 DM AND
1024 MB SFC HI/ OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE U70S AND L80S SAT AFTN AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUN AND
MON HOWEVER HUMIDITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH DEW PTS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE U50S AND L60S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES TUE BUT MAY
JUST WASHOUT AS RIDGE WINS OUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAY ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A MARINE STRATUS DECK DRIFTING
EAST OF BLOCK ISLAND THAT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF LOWER CIGS AT ACK THIS
AFTERNOON IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...HOWEVER THE TREND ON SATELLITE IS
GRADUAL DISSIPATION. OTHERWISE...LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY
SCT -SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TONIGHT. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS EVENING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS...THEN LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NE WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS BECOME PREVAILING NE/E.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT BACKDOORS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED ROUGH CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...
N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 KT AT TIMES EARLY AM INTO ABOUT MID DAY.
SEAS INCREASE AS WELL...REACHING NEAR 5 FT FIRST ON THE E
WATERS...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRI...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIGHT/VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031832
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
232 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK YIELDING MAINLY DRY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
230 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND T-STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOR MOST OF OUR
AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S STILL LOOK ON TRACK AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE...LOWER HIGH TEMPS THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

===================================================================

LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CI DEBRIS FROM EARLY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPILL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPITE OF THE
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS ALREADY REPORTING
MODEST FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN CT/MA.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...STALLING AS IT MEETS THE MORE ROBUST INCOMING SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM THE S. BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL SHIFT SE...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VT/NH THANKS TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE BETTER REALIZING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THEN IT WILL BE
A RACE AGAINST TIME AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS S AND INTERACTS WITH
THE VARIOUS FRONTS /COLD AND SEA BREEZE/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO
MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THE I-495 CORRIDOR
AND INTO RI...WHERE THE FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO MEET. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG...BUT WITH THE
CORE OF BEST LAPSE RATES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING...IT MAY STRUGGLE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CAPPING BOTH
T-STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SCT STILL REMAINS THE BEST
FORECAST. PWATS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT GIVEN THE
SCT NATURE IT/S POSSIBLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN DRY.

SHOULD ANY STORMS HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...THE UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK. THEREFORE...STILL NOT MENTIONING ANY ENHANCED
WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE AS HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL
WOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED EVENT.

HEAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY INLAND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
FURTHER E. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 90S W...TO LOW 80S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...LINGERING RISK OF ISOLATED -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT SO WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR MA/CT ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF RAIN FALLS. ERN MA/RI WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AM HOURS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...SO MINS
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN SPITE OF COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING OVER FROM
THE NE.

FRI...
BREEZY AND COOLER THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND H85
TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND +12C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER WILL LEAD TO STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT
BL DEPTH. THEREFORE...UNLIKELY MIXING TO H85...LIMITING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOW 70S WILL BE NEAR
SHORE...THANKS TO SST/S NEAR THESE VALUES. THE NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ITS NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET BEGINS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THUS OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY AT OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT THE EURO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +18C ACROSS SNE BY MON AND
TUE! GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AT
+16C/+17C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. REGARDING PRECIP...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POTENTIAL WILDCARD NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
CONUS MAY BE LINKED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMES ABSORBED
AND POTENTIALLY ENERGIZES THE NORTHERN STREAM.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...

ANOMALOUS 1025 MB ANTICYCLONE/SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO SNE. THIS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO YIELD COOL TEMPS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE U40S! THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE /H5 HEIGHTS OF 591 DM AND
1024 MB SFC HI/ OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE U70S AND L80S SAT AFTN AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUN AND
MON HOWEVER HUMIDITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH DEW PTS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE U50S AND L60S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES TUE BUT MAY
JUST WASHOUT AS RIDGE WINS OUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAY ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A MARINE STRATUS DECK DRIFTING
EAST OF BLOCK ISLAND THAT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF LOWER CIGS AT ACK THIS
AFTERNOON IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...HOWEVER THE TREND ON SATELLITE IS
GRADUAL DISSIPATION. OTHERWISE...LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY
SCT -SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TONIGHT. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS EVENING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS...THEN LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NE WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS BECOME PREVAILING NE/E.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT BACKDOORS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED ROUGH CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...
N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 KT AT TIMES EARLY AM INTO ABOUT MID DAY.
SEAS INCREASE AS WELL...REACHING NEAR 5 FT FIRST ON THE E
WATERS...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRI...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIGHT/VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031832
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
232 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK YIELDING MAINLY DRY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
230 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND T-STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS FOR MOST OF OUR
AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S STILL LOOK ON TRACK AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE...LOWER HIGH TEMPS THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

===================================================================

LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CI DEBRIS FROM EARLY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPILL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPITE OF THE
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS ALREADY REPORTING
MODEST FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN CT/MA.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...STALLING AS IT MEETS THE MORE ROBUST INCOMING SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM THE S. BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL SHIFT SE...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VT/NH THANKS TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE BETTER REALIZING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THEN IT WILL BE
A RACE AGAINST TIME AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS S AND INTERACTS WITH
THE VARIOUS FRONTS /COLD AND SEA BREEZE/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO
MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THE I-495 CORRIDOR
AND INTO RI...WHERE THE FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO MEET. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG...BUT WITH THE
CORE OF BEST LAPSE RATES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING...IT MAY STRUGGLE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CAPPING BOTH
T-STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SCT STILL REMAINS THE BEST
FORECAST. PWATS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT GIVEN THE
SCT NATURE IT/S POSSIBLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN DRY.

SHOULD ANY STORMS HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...THE UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK. THEREFORE...STILL NOT MENTIONING ANY ENHANCED
WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE AS HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL
WOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED EVENT.

HEAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY INLAND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
FURTHER E. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 90S W...TO LOW 80S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...LINGERING RISK OF ISOLATED -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT SO WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR MA/CT ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF RAIN FALLS. ERN MA/RI WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AM HOURS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...SO MINS
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN SPITE OF COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING OVER FROM
THE NE.

FRI...
BREEZY AND COOLER THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND H85
TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND +12C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER WILL LEAD TO STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT
BL DEPTH. THEREFORE...UNLIKELY MIXING TO H85...LIMITING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOW 70S WILL BE NEAR
SHORE...THANKS TO SST/S NEAR THESE VALUES. THE NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ITS NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET BEGINS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THUS OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY AT OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT THE EURO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +18C ACROSS SNE BY MON AND
TUE! GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AT
+16C/+17C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. REGARDING PRECIP...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POTENTIAL WILDCARD NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
CONUS MAY BE LINKED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMES ABSORBED
AND POTENTIALLY ENERGIZES THE NORTHERN STREAM.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...

ANOMALOUS 1025 MB ANTICYCLONE/SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO SNE. THIS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO YIELD COOL TEMPS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE U40S! THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE /H5 HEIGHTS OF 591 DM AND
1024 MB SFC HI/ OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE U70S AND L80S SAT AFTN AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUN AND
MON HOWEVER HUMIDITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH DEW PTS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE U50S AND L60S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES TUE BUT MAY
JUST WASHOUT AS RIDGE WINS OUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAY ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

2 PM UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A MARINE STRATUS DECK DRIFTING
EAST OF BLOCK ISLAND THAT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF LOWER CIGS AT ACK THIS
AFTERNOON IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...HOWEVER THE TREND ON SATELLITE IS
GRADUAL DISSIPATION. OTHERWISE...LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY
SCT -SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TONIGHT. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS EVENING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS...THEN LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NE WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS BECOME PREVAILING NE/E.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT BACKDOORS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER PREVAILS...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED ROUGH CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...
N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 KT AT TIMES EARLY AM INTO ABOUT MID DAY.
SEAS INCREASE AS WELL...REACHING NEAR 5 FT FIRST ON THE E
WATERS...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRI...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIGHT/VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB



000
FXUS61 KALY 031803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
203 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS MECHANISM FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THE 0-6 KM BULK WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO
VERY WEAK WITH LESS THAN 20KTS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.
THE ISOLD CELLS THAT FORMED ALONG THE RIM OF THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS HAVE EXHIBITED PULSE TYPE CHARACTERISTICS...AS THEY
TAP INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE BASED ON
THE LATEST SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE. THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE WEST OF THE ALY FCST AREA TOO. THE BEST CLOUD TO GROUND
LTG IS WITH THE CELL OVER SRN LEWIS/NRN ONEIDA COUNTIES...WEST OF
THE FCST AREA. EXPECTING MAINLY ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY BURST OF RAIN. CAN NOT RULE OUT
A ROGUE SEVERE DUE TO PCPN LOADING INTO THE CELLS...AND CAPE
VALUES OF 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALY. PWATS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 1-1.5" RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE LATEST HRRR HAS THE
CONVECTION WEAKEN AS IS MOVES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND KEEPS IT ISOLD.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED A FEW DEGREES UP INTO THE U80S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO MORE HEATING...WITH
U80S TO NEAR 90F IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS AREAS...WITH LOWER TO M80S
OVER THE MTNS. FURTHER NORTH EXPECT M70S TO M80S.

TONIGHT RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM NORTHEAST CANADA. TRENDS IN THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ENE TRAJECTORIES ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO THE GREENS...BERKS AND NW CT AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOUTH OF I90 COULD KEEP CLOUDS A
BIT LONGER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MOS VALUES OVERNIGHT ARE VERY CLOSE AND A BLENDED
APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT THAT CLEAR AT THIS
TIME AS WE WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.
HOWEVER...THEY BOTH AGREE THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET
HUNG UP ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR WHERE WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS H925-850 COOL OFF
FROM THE ENE INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THIS SHOULD YIELD EVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH NEAR 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW
U40S IN THE SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY
FORM...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG.

SATURDAY...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. H925-850 TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BIG BUBBLE...LITTLE TROUBLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND EVALUATED IN
LATER FORECASTS. LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KPOU/KALB TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTN/EVE MEANS IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME WHEN ANY SHWR/TSTMS WILL
AFFECT A TAF SITE...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF
FORECASTS.

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...BUT NOT AS LIKELY AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
SINCE THE REGION WILL BE IN A DRIER AIRMASS AND THERE COULD BE A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO FOG FORECAST FOR
KALB/KPOU. AFTER 14Z FRIDAY...ALL TAF WILL BE VFR ONCE AGAIN.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. THE WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR CALM LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST...
CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ELEVATED AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD TOUCH
OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY LINGER
SOUTH OF I90 INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 031803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
203 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS MECHANISM FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THE 0-6 KM BULK WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO
VERY WEAK WITH LESS THAN 20KTS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.
THE ISOLD CELLS THAT FORMED ALONG THE RIM OF THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS HAVE EXHIBITED PULSE TYPE CHARACTERISTICS...AS THEY
TAP INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE BASED ON
THE LATEST SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE. THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE WEST OF THE ALY FCST AREA TOO. THE BEST CLOUD TO GROUND
LTG IS WITH THE CELL OVER SRN LEWIS/NRN ONEIDA COUNTIES...WEST OF
THE FCST AREA. EXPECTING MAINLY ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY BURST OF RAIN. CAN NOT RULE OUT
A ROGUE SEVERE DUE TO PCPN LOADING INTO THE CELLS...AND CAPE
VALUES OF 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALY. PWATS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 1-1.5" RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE LATEST HRRR HAS THE
CONVECTION WEAKEN AS IS MOVES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND KEEPS IT ISOLD.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED A FEW DEGREES UP INTO THE U80S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO MORE HEATING...WITH
U80S TO NEAR 90F IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS AREAS...WITH LOWER TO M80S
OVER THE MTNS. FURTHER NORTH EXPECT M70S TO M80S.

TONIGHT RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM NORTHEAST CANADA. TRENDS IN THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ENE TRAJECTORIES ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO THE GREENS...BERKS AND NW CT AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOUTH OF I90 COULD KEEP CLOUDS A
BIT LONGER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MOS VALUES OVERNIGHT ARE VERY CLOSE AND A BLENDED
APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT THAT CLEAR AT THIS
TIME AS WE WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.
HOWEVER...THEY BOTH AGREE THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET
HUNG UP ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR WHERE WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS H925-850 COOL OFF
FROM THE ENE INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THIS SHOULD YIELD EVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH NEAR 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW
U40S IN THE SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY
FORM...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG.

SATURDAY...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. H925-850 TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BIG BUBBLE...LITTLE TROUBLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND EVALUATED IN
LATER FORECASTS. LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KPOU/KALB TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTN/EVE MEANS IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME WHEN ANY SHWR/TSTMS WILL
AFFECT A TAF SITE...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF
FORECASTS.

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...BUT NOT AS LIKELY AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
SINCE THE REGION WILL BE IN A DRIER AIRMASS AND THERE COULD BE A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO FOG FORECAST FOR
KALB/KPOU. AFTER 14Z FRIDAY...ALL TAF WILL BE VFR ONCE AGAIN.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. THE WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR CALM LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST...
CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ELEVATED AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD TOUCH
OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY LINGER
SOUTH OF I90 INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 031803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
203 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS MECHANISM FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THE 0-6 KM BULK WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO
VERY WEAK WITH LESS THAN 20KTS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.
THE ISOLD CELLS THAT FORMED ALONG THE RIM OF THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS HAVE EXHIBITED PULSE TYPE CHARACTERISTICS...AS THEY
TAP INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE BASED ON
THE LATEST SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE. THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE WEST OF THE ALY FCST AREA TOO. THE BEST CLOUD TO GROUND
LTG IS WITH THE CELL OVER SRN LEWIS/NRN ONEIDA COUNTIES...WEST OF
THE FCST AREA. EXPECTING MAINLY ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY BURST OF RAIN. CAN NOT RULE OUT
A ROGUE SEVERE DUE TO PCPN LOADING INTO THE CELLS...AND CAPE
VALUES OF 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALY. PWATS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 1-1.5" RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE LATEST HRRR HAS THE
CONVECTION WEAKEN AS IS MOVES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND KEEPS IT ISOLD.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED A FEW DEGREES UP INTO THE U80S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO MORE HEATING...WITH
U80S TO NEAR 90F IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS AREAS...WITH LOWER TO M80S
OVER THE MTNS. FURTHER NORTH EXPECT M70S TO M80S.

TONIGHT RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM NORTHEAST CANADA. TRENDS IN THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ENE TRAJECTORIES ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO THE GREENS...BERKS AND NW CT AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOUTH OF I90 COULD KEEP CLOUDS A
BIT LONGER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MOS VALUES OVERNIGHT ARE VERY CLOSE AND A BLENDED
APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT THAT CLEAR AT THIS
TIME AS WE WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.
HOWEVER...THEY BOTH AGREE THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET
HUNG UP ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR WHERE WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS H925-850 COOL OFF
FROM THE ENE INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THIS SHOULD YIELD EVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH NEAR 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW
U40S IN THE SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY
FORM...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG.

SATURDAY...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. H925-850 TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BIG BUBBLE...LITTLE TROUBLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND EVALUATED IN
LATER FORECASTS. LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KPOU/KALB TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTN/EVE MEANS IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME WHEN ANY SHWR/TSTMS WILL
AFFECT A TAF SITE...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF
FORECASTS.

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...BUT NOT AS LIKELY AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
SINCE THE REGION WILL BE IN A DRIER AIRMASS AND THERE COULD BE A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO FOG FORECAST FOR
KALB/KPOU. AFTER 14Z FRIDAY...ALL TAF WILL BE VFR ONCE AGAIN.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. THE WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR CALM LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST...
CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ELEVATED AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD TOUCH
OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY LINGER
SOUTH OF I90 INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 031803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
203 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS MECHANISM FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THE 0-6 KM BULK WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO
VERY WEAK WITH LESS THAN 20KTS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.
THE ISOLD CELLS THAT FORMED ALONG THE RIM OF THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS HAVE EXHIBITED PULSE TYPE CHARACTERISTICS...AS THEY
TAP INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE BASED ON
THE LATEST SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE. THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE WEST OF THE ALY FCST AREA TOO. THE BEST CLOUD TO GROUND
LTG IS WITH THE CELL OVER SRN LEWIS/NRN ONEIDA COUNTIES...WEST OF
THE FCST AREA. EXPECTING MAINLY ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY BURST OF RAIN. CAN NOT RULE OUT
A ROGUE SEVERE DUE TO PCPN LOADING INTO THE CELLS...AND CAPE
VALUES OF 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALY. PWATS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 1-1.5" RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE LATEST HRRR HAS THE
CONVECTION WEAKEN AS IS MOVES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND KEEPS IT ISOLD.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED A FEW DEGREES UP INTO THE U80S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO MORE HEATING...WITH
U80S TO NEAR 90F IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS AREAS...WITH LOWER TO M80S
OVER THE MTNS. FURTHER NORTH EXPECT M70S TO M80S.

TONIGHT RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM NORTHEAST CANADA. TRENDS IN THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ENE TRAJECTORIES ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO THE GREENS...BERKS AND NW CT AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOUTH OF I90 COULD KEEP CLOUDS A
BIT LONGER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MOS VALUES OVERNIGHT ARE VERY CLOSE AND A BLENDED
APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT THAT CLEAR AT THIS
TIME AS WE WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.
HOWEVER...THEY BOTH AGREE THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET
HUNG UP ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR WHERE WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS H925-850 COOL OFF
FROM THE ENE INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THIS SHOULD YIELD EVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH NEAR 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW
U40S IN THE SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY
FORM...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG.

SATURDAY...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. H925-850 TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BIG BUBBLE...LITTLE TROUBLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND EVALUATED IN
LATER FORECASTS. LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KPOU/KALB TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTN/EVE MEANS IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME WHEN ANY SHWR/TSTMS WILL
AFFECT A TAF SITE...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF
FORECASTS.

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...BUT NOT AS LIKELY AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
SINCE THE REGION WILL BE IN A DRIER AIRMASS AND THERE COULD BE A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO FOG FORECAST FOR
KALB/KPOU. AFTER 14Z FRIDAY...ALL TAF WILL BE VFR ONCE AGAIN.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. THE WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR CALM LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST...
CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ELEVATED AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD TOUCH
OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY LINGER
SOUTH OF I90 INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 031735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS MECHANISM FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THE 0-6 KM BULK WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO
VERY WEAK WITH LESS THAN 20KTS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.
THE ISOLD CELLS THAT FORMED ALONG THE RIM OF THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS HAVE EXHIBITED PULSE TYPE CHARACTERISTICS...AS THEY
TAP INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE BASED ON
THE LATEST SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE. THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE WEST OF THE ALY FCST AREA TOO. THE BEST CLOUD TO GROUND
LTG IS WITH THE CELL OVER SRN LEWIS/NRN ONEIDA COUNTIES...WEST OF
THE FCST AREA. EXPECTING MAINLY ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY BURST OF RAIN. CAN NOT RULE OUT
A ROGUE SEVERE DUE TO PCPN LOADING INTO THE CELLS...AND CAPE
VALUES OF 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALY. PWATS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 1-1.5" RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE LATEST HRRR HAS THE
CONVECTION WEAKEN AS IS MOVES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND KEEPS IT ISOLD.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED A FEW DEGREES UP INTO THE U80S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO MORE HEATING...WITH
U80S TO NEAR 90F IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS AREAS...WITH LOWER TO M80S
OVER THE MTNS. FURTHER NORTH EXPECT M70S TO M80S.

TONIGHT RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM NORTHEAST CANADA. TRENDS IN THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ENE TRAJECTORIES ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO THE GREENS...BERKS AND NW CT AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOUTH OF I90 COULD KEEP CLOUDS A
BIT LONGER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MOS VALUES OVERNIGHT ARE VERY CLOSE AND A BLENDED
APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT THAT CLEAR AT THIS
TIME AS WE WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.
HOWEVER...THEY BOTH AGREE THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET
HUNG UP ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR WHERE WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS H925-850 COOL OFF
FROM THE ENE INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THIS SHOULD YIELD EVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH NEAR 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW
U40S IN THE SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY
FORM...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG.

SATURDAY...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. H925-850 TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BIG BUBBLE...LITTLE TROUBLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND EVALUATED IN
LATER FORECASTS. LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL AND KPSF BETWEEN
12Z-14Z/THU. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...OUTSIDE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN
18Z- 22Z/THU. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE CORES OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z/FRI...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/FRI.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR SPREAD WESTWARD BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z/FRI...ESP AT KPSF AND KPOU. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH KPSF COULD APPROACH IFR CIGS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 13Z/THU...THEN TREND
INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE N TO NE BETWEEN 01Z-04Z/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH COULD BRIEFLY GUST INTO THE
10-20 KT RANGE...ESP AT KGFL DUE TO CHANNELING DOWN THE UPPER
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE
FORECAST...CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD
TOUCH OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY
LINGER SOUTH OF I90 INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 031735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS MECHANISM FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THE 0-6 KM BULK WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO
VERY WEAK WITH LESS THAN 20KTS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.
THE ISOLD CELLS THAT FORMED ALONG THE RIM OF THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS HAVE EXHIBITED PULSE TYPE CHARACTERISTICS...AS THEY
TAP INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE BASED ON
THE LATEST SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE. THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE WEST OF THE ALY FCST AREA TOO. THE BEST CLOUD TO GROUND
LTG IS WITH THE CELL OVER SRN LEWIS/NRN ONEIDA COUNTIES...WEST OF
THE FCST AREA. EXPECTING MAINLY ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY BURST OF RAIN. CAN NOT RULE OUT
A ROGUE SEVERE DUE TO PCPN LOADING INTO THE CELLS...AND CAPE
VALUES OF 1000 J/KG ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALY. PWATS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 1-1.5" RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE LATEST HRRR HAS THE
CONVECTION WEAKEN AS IS MOVES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND KEEPS IT ISOLD.

TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED A FEW DEGREES UP INTO THE U80S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO MORE HEATING...WITH
U80S TO NEAR 90F IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS AREAS...WITH LOWER TO M80S
OVER THE MTNS. FURTHER NORTH EXPECT M70S TO M80S.

TONIGHT RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM NORTHEAST CANADA. TRENDS IN THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ENE TRAJECTORIES ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO THE GREENS...BERKS AND NW CT AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOUTH OF I90 COULD KEEP CLOUDS A
BIT LONGER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MOS VALUES OVERNIGHT ARE VERY CLOSE AND A BLENDED
APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT THAT CLEAR AT THIS
TIME AS WE WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.
HOWEVER...THEY BOTH AGREE THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET
HUNG UP ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR WHERE WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS H925-850 COOL OFF
FROM THE ENE INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THIS SHOULD YIELD EVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH NEAR 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW
U40S IN THE SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY
FORM...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG.

SATURDAY...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. H925-850 TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BIG BUBBLE...LITTLE TROUBLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND EVALUATED IN
LATER FORECASTS. LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL AND KPSF BETWEEN
12Z-14Z/THU. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...OUTSIDE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN
18Z- 22Z/THU. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE CORES OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z/FRI...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/FRI.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR SPREAD WESTWARD BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z/FRI...ESP AT KPSF AND KPOU. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH KPSF COULD APPROACH IFR CIGS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 13Z/THU...THEN TREND
INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE N TO NE BETWEEN 01Z-04Z/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH COULD BRIEFLY GUST INTO THE
10-20 KT RANGE...ESP AT KGFL DUE TO CHANNELING DOWN THE UPPER
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE
FORECAST...CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD
TOUCH OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY
LINGER SOUTH OF I90 INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 031435
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1035 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE BEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...NO SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED ON AREA RADARS AND
ANY CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION SHOWING LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT. AS
A RESULT...HAVE REMOVED ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING...BUT LEFT THE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THEY WERE. MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA STILL SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY...AND HAVE
LOWERED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IN THE SKY COVER GRIDS FOR THE
REST OF THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

PREV DISC...
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY HIGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE AND FOR SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE OFFER QUITE A DIFFERENT APPROACH
TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE NAM
REMAINING THE HIGHEST WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 2K J/KG.
THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF AS MUCH WHICH IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH
THE HOURLY MESOSCALE UPDATES FROM THE RAP13/HRRR. THIS IS LIKELY
THE CULPRIT OF THE FORECAST SFC DEWPOINTS AS UPSTREAM VALUES WERE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE NAM WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO 70F. AS FOR LAPSE RATES...MODEST VALUES SEEN IN THE BUFR
PROFILES WITH AN AVERAGE 6.5-7.0 C/KM WITHIN THE H850-500 LAYER.
YET THE WIND SHEAR IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH VALUES 20KTS OR LESS. PER SPC COORDINATION...GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND PER THOSE SOUNDINGS...COULD NOT RULE OUT
1-2 EVENTS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COMBINATION OF INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDINGS AND PRECIP LOADING CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED DOWNBURST.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN WEDNESDAYS HIGHS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH MAINLY MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TONIGHT RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM NORTHEAST CANADA. TRENDS IN THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ENE TRAJECTORIES ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO THE GREENS...BERKS AND NW CT AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOUTH OF I90 COULD KEEP CLOUDS A
BIT LONGER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER. MOS VALUES OVERNIGHT
ARE VERY CLOSE AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. FOG POTENTIAL
IS NOT THAT CLEAR AT THIS TIME AS WE WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.
HOWEVER...THEY BOTH AGREE THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET
HUNG UP ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR WHERE WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS H925-850 COOL OFF
FROM THE ENE INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THIS SHOULD YIELD EVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH NEAR 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW
U40S IN THE SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY
FORM...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG.

SATURDAY...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. H925-850 TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BIG BUBBLE...LITTLE TROUBLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND EVALUATED IN
LATER FORECASTS. LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL AND KPSF BETWEEN
12Z-14Z/THU. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...OUTSIDE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN
18Z- 22Z/THU. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE CORES OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z/FRI...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/FRI.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR SPREAD WESTWARD BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z/FRI...ESP AT KPSF AND KPOU. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH KPSF COULD APPROACH IFR CIGS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 13Z/THU...THEN TREND
INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE N TO NE BETWEEN 01Z-04Z/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH COULD BRIEFLY GUST INTO THE
10-20 KT RANGE...ESP AT KGFL DUE TO CHANNELING DOWN THE UPPER
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE
FORECAST...CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD
TOUCH OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY
LINGER SOUTH OF I90 INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 031435
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1035 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE BEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...NO SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED ON AREA RADARS AND
ANY CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION SHOWING LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT. AS
A RESULT...HAVE REMOVED ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING...BUT LEFT THE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THEY WERE. MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA STILL SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY...AND HAVE
LOWERED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IN THE SKY COVER GRIDS FOR THE
REST OF THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

PREV DISC...
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY HIGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE AND FOR SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE OFFER QUITE A DIFFERENT APPROACH
TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE NAM
REMAINING THE HIGHEST WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 2K J/KG.
THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF AS MUCH WHICH IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH
THE HOURLY MESOSCALE UPDATES FROM THE RAP13/HRRR. THIS IS LIKELY
THE CULPRIT OF THE FORECAST SFC DEWPOINTS AS UPSTREAM VALUES WERE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE NAM WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO 70F. AS FOR LAPSE RATES...MODEST VALUES SEEN IN THE BUFR
PROFILES WITH AN AVERAGE 6.5-7.0 C/KM WITHIN THE H850-500 LAYER.
YET THE WIND SHEAR IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH VALUES 20KTS OR LESS. PER SPC COORDINATION...GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND PER THOSE SOUNDINGS...COULD NOT RULE OUT
1-2 EVENTS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COMBINATION OF INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDINGS AND PRECIP LOADING CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED DOWNBURST.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN WEDNESDAYS HIGHS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH MAINLY MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TONIGHT RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM NORTHEAST CANADA. TRENDS IN THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ENE TRAJECTORIES ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO THE GREENS...BERKS AND NW CT AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOUTH OF I90 COULD KEEP CLOUDS A
BIT LONGER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER. MOS VALUES OVERNIGHT
ARE VERY CLOSE AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. FOG POTENTIAL
IS NOT THAT CLEAR AT THIS TIME AS WE WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.
HOWEVER...THEY BOTH AGREE THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET
HUNG UP ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR WHERE WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS H925-850 COOL OFF
FROM THE ENE INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THIS SHOULD YIELD EVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH NEAR 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW
U40S IN THE SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY
FORM...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG.

SATURDAY...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. H925-850 TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BIG BUBBLE...LITTLE TROUBLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND EVALUATED IN
LATER FORECASTS. LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL AND KPSF BETWEEN
12Z-14Z/THU. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...OUTSIDE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN
18Z- 22Z/THU. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE CORES OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z/FRI...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/FRI.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR SPREAD WESTWARD BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z/FRI...ESP AT KPSF AND KPOU. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH KPSF COULD APPROACH IFR CIGS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 13Z/THU...THEN TREND
INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE N TO NE BETWEEN 01Z-04Z/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH COULD BRIEFLY GUST INTO THE
10-20 KT RANGE...ESP AT KGFL DUE TO CHANNELING DOWN THE UPPER
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE
FORECAST...CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD
TOUCH OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY
LINGER SOUTH OF I90 INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 031435
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1035 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE BEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...NO SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED ON AREA RADARS AND
ANY CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION SHOWING LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT. AS
A RESULT...HAVE REMOVED ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING...BUT LEFT THE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THEY WERE. MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA STILL SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY...AND HAVE
LOWERED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IN THE SKY COVER GRIDS FOR THE
REST OF THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

PREV DISC...
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY HIGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE AND FOR SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE OFFER QUITE A DIFFERENT APPROACH
TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE NAM
REMAINING THE HIGHEST WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 2K J/KG.
THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF AS MUCH WHICH IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH
THE HOURLY MESOSCALE UPDATES FROM THE RAP13/HRRR. THIS IS LIKELY
THE CULPRIT OF THE FORECAST SFC DEWPOINTS AS UPSTREAM VALUES WERE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE NAM WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO 70F. AS FOR LAPSE RATES...MODEST VALUES SEEN IN THE BUFR
PROFILES WITH AN AVERAGE 6.5-7.0 C/KM WITHIN THE H850-500 LAYER.
YET THE WIND SHEAR IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH VALUES 20KTS OR LESS. PER SPC COORDINATION...GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND PER THOSE SOUNDINGS...COULD NOT RULE OUT
1-2 EVENTS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COMBINATION OF INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDINGS AND PRECIP LOADING CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED DOWNBURST.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN WEDNESDAYS HIGHS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH MAINLY MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TONIGHT RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM NORTHEAST CANADA. TRENDS IN THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ENE TRAJECTORIES ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO THE GREENS...BERKS AND NW CT AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOUTH OF I90 COULD KEEP CLOUDS A
BIT LONGER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER. MOS VALUES OVERNIGHT
ARE VERY CLOSE AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. FOG POTENTIAL
IS NOT THAT CLEAR AT THIS TIME AS WE WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.
HOWEVER...THEY BOTH AGREE THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET
HUNG UP ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR WHERE WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS H925-850 COOL OFF
FROM THE ENE INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THIS SHOULD YIELD EVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH NEAR 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW
U40S IN THE SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY
FORM...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG.

SATURDAY...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. H925-850 TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BIG BUBBLE...LITTLE TROUBLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND EVALUATED IN
LATER FORECASTS. LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL AND KPSF BETWEEN
12Z-14Z/THU. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...OUTSIDE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN
18Z- 22Z/THU. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE CORES OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z/FRI...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/FRI.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR SPREAD WESTWARD BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z/FRI...ESP AT KPSF AND KPOU. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH KPSF COULD APPROACH IFR CIGS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 13Z/THU...THEN TREND
INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE N TO NE BETWEEN 01Z-04Z/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH COULD BRIEFLY GUST INTO THE
10-20 KT RANGE...ESP AT KGFL DUE TO CHANNELING DOWN THE UPPER
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE
FORECAST...CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD
TOUCH OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY
LINGER SOUTH OF I90 INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 031435
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1035 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE BEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...NO SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED ON AREA RADARS AND
ANY CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION SHOWING LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT. AS
A RESULT...HAVE REMOVED ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING...BUT LEFT THE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THEY WERE. MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA STILL SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY...AND HAVE
LOWERED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IN THE SKY COVER GRIDS FOR THE
REST OF THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

PREV DISC...
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY HIGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE AND FOR SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE OFFER QUITE A DIFFERENT APPROACH
TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE NAM
REMAINING THE HIGHEST WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 2K J/KG.
THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF AS MUCH WHICH IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH
THE HOURLY MESOSCALE UPDATES FROM THE RAP13/HRRR. THIS IS LIKELY
THE CULPRIT OF THE FORECAST SFC DEWPOINTS AS UPSTREAM VALUES WERE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE NAM WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO 70F. AS FOR LAPSE RATES...MODEST VALUES SEEN IN THE BUFR
PROFILES WITH AN AVERAGE 6.5-7.0 C/KM WITHIN THE H850-500 LAYER.
YET THE WIND SHEAR IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH VALUES 20KTS OR LESS. PER SPC COORDINATION...GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND PER THOSE SOUNDINGS...COULD NOT RULE OUT
1-2 EVENTS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COMBINATION OF INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDINGS AND PRECIP LOADING CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED DOWNBURST.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN WEDNESDAYS HIGHS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH MAINLY MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TONIGHT RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM NORTHEAST CANADA. TRENDS IN THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ENE TRAJECTORIES ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO THE GREENS...BERKS AND NW CT AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOUTH OF I90 COULD KEEP CLOUDS A
BIT LONGER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER. MOS VALUES OVERNIGHT
ARE VERY CLOSE AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. FOG POTENTIAL
IS NOT THAT CLEAR AT THIS TIME AS WE WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.
HOWEVER...THEY BOTH AGREE THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET
HUNG UP ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR WHERE WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS H925-850 COOL OFF
FROM THE ENE INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THIS SHOULD YIELD EVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH NEAR 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW
U40S IN THE SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY
FORM...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG.

SATURDAY...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. H925-850 TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BIG BUBBLE...LITTLE TROUBLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND EVALUATED IN
LATER FORECASTS. LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL AND KPSF BETWEEN
12Z-14Z/THU. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...OUTSIDE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN
18Z- 22Z/THU. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE CORES OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z/FRI...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/FRI.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR SPREAD WESTWARD BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z/FRI...ESP AT KPSF AND KPOU. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH KPSF COULD APPROACH IFR CIGS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 13Z/THU...THEN TREND
INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE N TO NE BETWEEN 01Z-04Z/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH COULD BRIEFLY GUST INTO THE
10-20 KT RANGE...ESP AT KGFL DUE TO CHANNELING DOWN THE UPPER
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE
FORECAST...CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD
TOUCH OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY
LINGER SOUTH OF I90 INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 031435
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1035 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE BEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...NO SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED ON AREA RADARS AND
ANY CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION SHOWING LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT. AS
A RESULT...HAVE REMOVED ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING...BUT LEFT THE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THEY WERE. MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA STILL SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY...AND HAVE
LOWERED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IN THE SKY COVER GRIDS FOR THE
REST OF THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

PREV DISC...
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY HIGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE AND FOR SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE OFFER QUITE A DIFFERENT APPROACH
TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE NAM
REMAINING THE HIGHEST WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 2K J/KG.
THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF AS MUCH WHICH IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH
THE HOURLY MESOSCALE UPDATES FROM THE RAP13/HRRR. THIS IS LIKELY
THE CULPRIT OF THE FORECAST SFC DEWPOINTS AS UPSTREAM VALUES WERE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE NAM WITH VALUES CLOSE
TO 70F. AS FOR LAPSE RATES...MODEST VALUES SEEN IN THE BUFR
PROFILES WITH AN AVERAGE 6.5-7.0 C/KM WITHIN THE H850-500 LAYER.
YET THE WIND SHEAR IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH VALUES 20KTS OR LESS. PER SPC COORDINATION...GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND PER THOSE SOUNDINGS...COULD NOT RULE OUT
1-2 EVENTS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COMBINATION OF INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDINGS AND PRECIP LOADING CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED DOWNBURST.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN WEDNESDAYS HIGHS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH MAINLY MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TONIGHT RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM NORTHEAST CANADA. TRENDS IN THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ENE TRAJECTORIES ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO THE GREENS...BERKS AND NW CT AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOUTH OF I90 COULD KEEP CLOUDS A
BIT LONGER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER. MOS VALUES OVERNIGHT
ARE VERY CLOSE AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. FOG POTENTIAL
IS NOT THAT CLEAR AT THIS TIME AS WE WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.
HOWEVER...THEY BOTH AGREE THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET
HUNG UP ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR WHERE WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS H925-850 COOL OFF
FROM THE ENE INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THIS SHOULD YIELD EVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH NEAR 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW
U40S IN THE SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY
FORM...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG.

SATURDAY...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. H925-850 TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BIG BUBBLE...LITTLE TROUBLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND EVALUATED IN
LATER FORECASTS. LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL AND KPSF BETWEEN
12Z-14Z/THU. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...OUTSIDE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN
18Z- 22Z/THU. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE CORES OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z/FRI...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/FRI.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR SPREAD WESTWARD BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z/FRI...ESP AT KPSF AND KPOU. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH KPSF COULD APPROACH IFR CIGS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 13Z/THU...THEN TREND
INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE N TO NE BETWEEN 01Z-04Z/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH COULD BRIEFLY GUST INTO THE
10-20 KT RANGE...ESP AT KGFL DUE TO CHANNELING DOWN THE UPPER
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE
FORECAST...CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD
TOUCH OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY
LINGER SOUTH OF I90 INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031405
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK YIELDING MAINLY DRY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING...ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE PATCH
OF MARINE STRATUS/FOG DRIFTING EASTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND AND
VICINITY TOWARDS BLOCK ISLAND. HAVE ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER AND
PATCHY FOG TO THE VICINITY OF BLOCK ISLAND THRU MIDDAY...THIS
MARINE CLOUD BANK SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX/LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR CONTINUES TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE...THEN EXPECTING DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

===================================================================

LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CI DEBRIS FROM EARLY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPILL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPITE OF THE
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS ALREADY REPORTING
MODEST FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN CT/MA.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...STALLING AS IT MEETS THE MORE ROBUST INCOMING SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM THE S. BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL SHIFT SE...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VT/NH THANKS TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE BETTER REALIZING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THEN IT WILL BE
A RACE AGAINST TIME AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS S AND INTERACTS WITH
THE VARIOUS FRONTS /COLD AND SEA BREEZE/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO
MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THE I-495 CORRIDOR
AND INTO RI...WHERE THE FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO MEET. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG...BUT WITH THE
CORE OF BEST LAPSE RATES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING...IT MAY STRUGGLE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CAPPING BOTH
T-STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SCT STILL REMAINS THE BEST
FORECAST. PWATS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT GIVEN THE
SCT NATURE IT/S POSSIBLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN DRY.

SHOULD ANY STORMS HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...THE UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK. THEREFORE...STILL NOT MENTIONING ANY ENHANCED
WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE AS HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL
WOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED EVENT.

HEAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY INLAND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
FURTHER E. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 90S W...TO LOW 80S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...LINGERING RISK OF ISOLATED -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT SO WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR MA/CT ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF RAIN FALLS. ERN MA/RI WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AM HOURS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...SO MINS
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN SPITE OF COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING OVER FROM
THE NE.

FRI...
BREEZY AND COOLER THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND H85
TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND +12C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER WILL LEAD TO STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT
BL DEPTH. THEREFORE...UNLIKELY MIXING TO H85...LIMITING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOW 70S WILL BE NEAR
SHORE...THANKS TO SST/S NEAR THESE VALUES. THE NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ITS NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET BEGINS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THUS OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY AT OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT THE EURO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +18C ACROSS SNE BY MON AND
TUE! GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AT
+16C/+17C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. REGARDING PRECIP...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POTENTIAL WILDCARD NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
CONUS MAY BE LINKED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMES ABSORBED
AND POTENTIALLY ENERGIZES THE NORTHERN STREAM.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...

ANOMALOUS 1025 MB ANTICYCLONE/SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO SNE. THIS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO YIELD COOL TEMPS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE U40S! THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE /H5 HEIGHTS OF 591 DM AND
1024 MB SFC HI/ OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE U70S AND L80S SAT AFTN AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUN AND
MON HOWEVER HUMIDITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH DEW PTS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE U50S AND L60S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES TUE BUT MAY
JUST WASHOUT AS RIDGE WINS OUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAY ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A MARINE STRATUS DECK /WITH FOG/
DRIFTING EAST OFF LONG ISLAND THAT MAY PRODUCE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ON
BLOCK ISLAND AND NEARBY SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...SHOULD GRADUALLY
MIX/LIFT THRU NOON TODAY. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY SCT
-SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND FRI...
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT BURN OFF.
BREEZY EARLY FRI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
MARINE CLOUD/FOG BANK DRIFINT EAST FROM LONG ISLAND AND
VICINITY...WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE VICINITY OF BLOCK
ISLAND/LONG ISLAND SOUND AND WATERS SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND THRU
MIDDAY...POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS CLOUD/FOG BANK TO
SLOWLY MIX/LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT
BACKDOORS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
PREVAILS...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE TODAY MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED ROUGH CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...
N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 KT AT TIMES EARLY AM INTO ABOUT MID DAY.
SEAS INCREASE AS WELL...REACHING NEAR 5 FT FIRST ON THE E
WATERS...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRI...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIGHT/VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031405
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK YIELDING MAINLY DRY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING...ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE PATCH
OF MARINE STRATUS/FOG DRIFTING EASTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND AND
VICINITY TOWARDS BLOCK ISLAND. HAVE ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER AND
PATCHY FOG TO THE VICINITY OF BLOCK ISLAND THRU MIDDAY...THIS
MARINE CLOUD BANK SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX/LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR CONTINUES TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE...THEN EXPECTING DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

===================================================================

LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CI DEBRIS FROM EARLY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPILL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPITE OF THE
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS ALREADY REPORTING
MODEST FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN CT/MA.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...STALLING AS IT MEETS THE MORE ROBUST INCOMING SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM THE S. BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL SHIFT SE...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VT/NH THANKS TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE BETTER REALIZING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THEN IT WILL BE
A RACE AGAINST TIME AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS S AND INTERACTS WITH
THE VARIOUS FRONTS /COLD AND SEA BREEZE/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO
MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THE I-495 CORRIDOR
AND INTO RI...WHERE THE FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO MEET. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG...BUT WITH THE
CORE OF BEST LAPSE RATES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING...IT MAY STRUGGLE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CAPPING BOTH
T-STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SCT STILL REMAINS THE BEST
FORECAST. PWATS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT GIVEN THE
SCT NATURE IT/S POSSIBLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN DRY.

SHOULD ANY STORMS HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...THE UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK. THEREFORE...STILL NOT MENTIONING ANY ENHANCED
WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE AS HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL
WOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED EVENT.

HEAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY INLAND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
FURTHER E. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 90S W...TO LOW 80S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...LINGERING RISK OF ISOLATED -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT SO WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR MA/CT ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF RAIN FALLS. ERN MA/RI WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AM HOURS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...SO MINS
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN SPITE OF COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING OVER FROM
THE NE.

FRI...
BREEZY AND COOLER THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND H85
TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND +12C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER WILL LEAD TO STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT
BL DEPTH. THEREFORE...UNLIKELY MIXING TO H85...LIMITING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOW 70S WILL BE NEAR
SHORE...THANKS TO SST/S NEAR THESE VALUES. THE NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ITS NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET BEGINS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THUS OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY AT OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT THE EURO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +18C ACROSS SNE BY MON AND
TUE! GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AT
+16C/+17C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. REGARDING PRECIP...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POTENTIAL WILDCARD NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
CONUS MAY BE LINKED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMES ABSORBED
AND POTENTIALLY ENERGIZES THE NORTHERN STREAM.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...

ANOMALOUS 1025 MB ANTICYCLONE/SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO SNE. THIS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO YIELD COOL TEMPS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE U40S! THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE /H5 HEIGHTS OF 591 DM AND
1024 MB SFC HI/ OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE U70S AND L80S SAT AFTN AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUN AND
MON HOWEVER HUMIDITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH DEW PTS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE U50S AND L60S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES TUE BUT MAY
JUST WASHOUT AS RIDGE WINS OUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAY ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A MARINE STRATUS DECK /WITH FOG/
DRIFTING EAST OFF LONG ISLAND THAT MAY PRODUCE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ON
BLOCK ISLAND AND NEARBY SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...SHOULD GRADUALLY
MIX/LIFT THRU NOON TODAY. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY SCT
-SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND FRI...
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT BURN OFF.
BREEZY EARLY FRI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
MARINE CLOUD/FOG BANK DRIFINT EAST FROM LONG ISLAND AND
VICINITY...WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE VICINITY OF BLOCK
ISLAND/LONG ISLAND SOUND AND WATERS SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND THRU
MIDDAY...POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS CLOUD/FOG BANK TO
SLOWLY MIX/LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT
BACKDOORS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
PREVAILS...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE TODAY MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED ROUGH CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...
N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 KT AT TIMES EARLY AM INTO ABOUT MID DAY.
SEAS INCREASE AS WELL...REACHING NEAR 5 FT FIRST ON THE E
WATERS...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRI...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIGHT/VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031405
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK YIELDING MAINLY DRY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING...ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE PATCH
OF MARINE STRATUS/FOG DRIFTING EASTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND AND
VICINITY TOWARDS BLOCK ISLAND. HAVE ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER AND
PATCHY FOG TO THE VICINITY OF BLOCK ISLAND THRU MIDDAY...THIS
MARINE CLOUD BANK SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX/LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR CONTINUES TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE...THEN EXPECTING DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

===================================================================

LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CI DEBRIS FROM EARLY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPILL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPITE OF THE
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS ALREADY REPORTING
MODEST FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN CT/MA.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...STALLING AS IT MEETS THE MORE ROBUST INCOMING SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM THE S. BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL SHIFT SE...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VT/NH THANKS TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE BETTER REALIZING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THEN IT WILL BE
A RACE AGAINST TIME AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS S AND INTERACTS WITH
THE VARIOUS FRONTS /COLD AND SEA BREEZE/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO
MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THE I-495 CORRIDOR
AND INTO RI...WHERE THE FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO MEET. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG...BUT WITH THE
CORE OF BEST LAPSE RATES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING...IT MAY STRUGGLE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CAPPING BOTH
T-STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SCT STILL REMAINS THE BEST
FORECAST. PWATS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT GIVEN THE
SCT NATURE IT/S POSSIBLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN DRY.

SHOULD ANY STORMS HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...THE UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK. THEREFORE...STILL NOT MENTIONING ANY ENHANCED
WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE AS HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL
WOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED EVENT.

HEAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY INLAND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
FURTHER E. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 90S W...TO LOW 80S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...LINGERING RISK OF ISOLATED -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT SO WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR MA/CT ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF RAIN FALLS. ERN MA/RI WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AM HOURS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...SO MINS
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN SPITE OF COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING OVER FROM
THE NE.

FRI...
BREEZY AND COOLER THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND H85
TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND +12C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER WILL LEAD TO STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT
BL DEPTH. THEREFORE...UNLIKELY MIXING TO H85...LIMITING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOW 70S WILL BE NEAR
SHORE...THANKS TO SST/S NEAR THESE VALUES. THE NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ITS NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET BEGINS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THUS OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY AT OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT THE EURO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +18C ACROSS SNE BY MON AND
TUE! GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AT
+16C/+17C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. REGARDING PRECIP...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POTENTIAL WILDCARD NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
CONUS MAY BE LINKED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMES ABSORBED
AND POTENTIALLY ENERGIZES THE NORTHERN STREAM.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...

ANOMALOUS 1025 MB ANTICYCLONE/SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO SNE. THIS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO YIELD COOL TEMPS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE U40S! THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE /H5 HEIGHTS OF 591 DM AND
1024 MB SFC HI/ OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE U70S AND L80S SAT AFTN AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUN AND
MON HOWEVER HUMIDITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH DEW PTS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE U50S AND L60S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES TUE BUT MAY
JUST WASHOUT AS RIDGE WINS OUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAY ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A MARINE STRATUS DECK /WITH FOG/
DRIFTING EAST OFF LONG ISLAND THAT MAY PRODUCE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ON
BLOCK ISLAND AND NEARBY SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...SHOULD GRADUALLY
MIX/LIFT THRU NOON TODAY. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY SCT
-SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND FRI...
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT BURN OFF.
BREEZY EARLY FRI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
MARINE CLOUD/FOG BANK DRIFINT EAST FROM LONG ISLAND AND
VICINITY...WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE VICINITY OF BLOCK
ISLAND/LONG ISLAND SOUND AND WATERS SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND THRU
MIDDAY...POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS CLOUD/FOG BANK TO
SLOWLY MIX/LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT
BACKDOORS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
PREVAILS...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE TODAY MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED ROUGH CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...
N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 KT AT TIMES EARLY AM INTO ABOUT MID DAY.
SEAS INCREASE AS WELL...REACHING NEAR 5 FT FIRST ON THE E
WATERS...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRI...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIGHT/VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031405
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK YIELDING MAINLY DRY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING...ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE PATCH
OF MARINE STRATUS/FOG DRIFTING EASTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND AND
VICINITY TOWARDS BLOCK ISLAND. HAVE ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER AND
PATCHY FOG TO THE VICINITY OF BLOCK ISLAND THRU MIDDAY...THIS
MARINE CLOUD BANK SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX/LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR CONTINUES TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE...THEN EXPECTING DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

===================================================================

LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CI DEBRIS FROM EARLY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPILL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPITE OF THE
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS ALREADY REPORTING
MODEST FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN CT/MA.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...STALLING AS IT MEETS THE MORE ROBUST INCOMING SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM THE S. BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL SHIFT SE...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VT/NH THANKS TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE BETTER REALIZING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THEN IT WILL BE
A RACE AGAINST TIME AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS S AND INTERACTS WITH
THE VARIOUS FRONTS /COLD AND SEA BREEZE/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO
MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THE I-495 CORRIDOR
AND INTO RI...WHERE THE FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO MEET. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG...BUT WITH THE
CORE OF BEST LAPSE RATES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING...IT MAY STRUGGLE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CAPPING BOTH
T-STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SCT STILL REMAINS THE BEST
FORECAST. PWATS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT GIVEN THE
SCT NATURE IT/S POSSIBLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN DRY.

SHOULD ANY STORMS HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...THE UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK. THEREFORE...STILL NOT MENTIONING ANY ENHANCED
WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE AS HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL
WOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED EVENT.

HEAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY INLAND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
FURTHER E. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 90S W...TO LOW 80S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...LINGERING RISK OF ISOLATED -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT SO WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR MA/CT ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF RAIN FALLS. ERN MA/RI WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AM HOURS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...SO MINS
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN SPITE OF COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING OVER FROM
THE NE.

FRI...
BREEZY AND COOLER THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND H85
TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND +12C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER WILL LEAD TO STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT
BL DEPTH. THEREFORE...UNLIKELY MIXING TO H85...LIMITING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOW 70S WILL BE NEAR
SHORE...THANKS TO SST/S NEAR THESE VALUES. THE NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ITS NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET BEGINS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THUS OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY AT OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT THE EURO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +18C ACROSS SNE BY MON AND
TUE! GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AT
+16C/+17C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. REGARDING PRECIP...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POTENTIAL WILDCARD NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
CONUS MAY BE LINKED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMES ABSORBED
AND POTENTIALLY ENERGIZES THE NORTHERN STREAM.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...

ANOMALOUS 1025 MB ANTICYCLONE/SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO SNE. THIS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO YIELD COOL TEMPS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE U40S! THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE /H5 HEIGHTS OF 591 DM AND
1024 MB SFC HI/ OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE U70S AND L80S SAT AFTN AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUN AND
MON HOWEVER HUMIDITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH DEW PTS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE U50S AND L60S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES TUE BUT MAY
JUST WASHOUT AS RIDGE WINS OUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAY ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A MARINE STRATUS DECK /WITH FOG/
DRIFTING EAST OFF LONG ISLAND THAT MAY PRODUCE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ON
BLOCK ISLAND AND NEARBY SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...SHOULD GRADUALLY
MIX/LIFT THRU NOON TODAY. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY SCT
-SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND FRI...
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT BURN OFF.
BREEZY EARLY FRI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
MARINE CLOUD/FOG BANK DRIFINT EAST FROM LONG ISLAND AND
VICINITY...WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE VICINITY OF BLOCK
ISLAND/LONG ISLAND SOUND AND WATERS SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND THRU
MIDDAY...POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS CLOUD/FOG BANK TO
SLOWLY MIX/LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT
BACKDOORS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
PREVAILS...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE TODAY MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED ROUGH CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...
N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 KT AT TIMES EARLY AM INTO ABOUT MID DAY.
SEAS INCREASE AS WELL...REACHING NEAR 5 FT FIRST ON THE E
WATERS...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRI...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIGHT/VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031405
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK YIELDING MAINLY DRY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING...ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE PATCH
OF MARINE STRATUS/FOG DRIFTING EASTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND AND
VICINITY TOWARDS BLOCK ISLAND. HAVE ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER AND
PATCHY FOG TO THE VICINITY OF BLOCK ISLAND THRU MIDDAY...THIS
MARINE CLOUD BANK SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX/LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR CONTINUES TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE...THEN EXPECTING DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

===================================================================

LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CI DEBRIS FROM EARLY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPILL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPITE OF THE
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS ALREADY REPORTING
MODEST FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN CT/MA.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...STALLING AS IT MEETS THE MORE ROBUST INCOMING SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM THE S. BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL SHIFT SE...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VT/NH THANKS TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE BETTER REALIZING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THEN IT WILL BE
A RACE AGAINST TIME AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS S AND INTERACTS WITH
THE VARIOUS FRONTS /COLD AND SEA BREEZE/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO
MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THE I-495 CORRIDOR
AND INTO RI...WHERE THE FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO MEET. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG...BUT WITH THE
CORE OF BEST LAPSE RATES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING...IT MAY STRUGGLE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CAPPING BOTH
T-STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SCT STILL REMAINS THE BEST
FORECAST. PWATS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT GIVEN THE
SCT NATURE IT/S POSSIBLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN DRY.

SHOULD ANY STORMS HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...THE UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK. THEREFORE...STILL NOT MENTIONING ANY ENHANCED
WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE AS HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL
WOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED EVENT.

HEAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY INLAND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
FURTHER E. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 90S W...TO LOW 80S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...LINGERING RISK OF ISOLATED -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT SO WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR MA/CT ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF RAIN FALLS. ERN MA/RI WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AM HOURS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...SO MINS
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN SPITE OF COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING OVER FROM
THE NE.

FRI...
BREEZY AND COOLER THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND H85
TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND +12C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER WILL LEAD TO STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT
BL DEPTH. THEREFORE...UNLIKELY MIXING TO H85...LIMITING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOW 70S WILL BE NEAR
SHORE...THANKS TO SST/S NEAR THESE VALUES. THE NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ITS NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET BEGINS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THUS OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY AT OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT THE EURO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +18C ACROSS SNE BY MON AND
TUE! GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AT
+16C/+17C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. REGARDING PRECIP...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POTENTIAL WILDCARD NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
CONUS MAY BE LINKED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMES ABSORBED
AND POTENTIALLY ENERGIZES THE NORTHERN STREAM.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...

ANOMALOUS 1025 MB ANTICYCLONE/SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO SNE. THIS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO YIELD COOL TEMPS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE U40S! THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE /H5 HEIGHTS OF 591 DM AND
1024 MB SFC HI/ OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE U70S AND L80S SAT AFTN AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUN AND
MON HOWEVER HUMIDITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH DEW PTS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE U50S AND L60S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES TUE BUT MAY
JUST WASHOUT AS RIDGE WINS OUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAY ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A MARINE STRATUS DECK /WITH FOG/
DRIFTING EAST OFF LONG ISLAND THAT MAY PRODUCE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ON
BLOCK ISLAND AND NEARBY SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...SHOULD GRADUALLY
MIX/LIFT THRU NOON TODAY. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY SCT
-SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND FRI...
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT BURN OFF.
BREEZY EARLY FRI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
MARINE CLOUD/FOG BANK DRIFINT EAST FROM LONG ISLAND AND
VICINITY...WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE VICINITY OF BLOCK
ISLAND/LONG ISLAND SOUND AND WATERS SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND THRU
MIDDAY...POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS CLOUD/FOG BANK TO
SLOWLY MIX/LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT
BACKDOORS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
PREVAILS...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE TODAY MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED ROUGH CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...
N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 KT AT TIMES EARLY AM INTO ABOUT MID DAY.
SEAS INCREASE AS WELL...REACHING NEAR 5 FT FIRST ON THE E
WATERS...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRI...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIGHT/VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031405
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK YIELDING MAINLY DRY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING...ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE PATCH
OF MARINE STRATUS/FOG DRIFTING EASTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND AND
VICINITY TOWARDS BLOCK ISLAND. HAVE ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER AND
PATCHY FOG TO THE VICINITY OF BLOCK ISLAND THRU MIDDAY...THIS
MARINE CLOUD BANK SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX/LIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR CONTINUES TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE...THEN EXPECTING DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

===================================================================

LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CI DEBRIS FROM EARLY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPILL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPITE OF THE
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS ALREADY REPORTING
MODEST FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN CT/MA.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...STALLING AS IT MEETS THE MORE ROBUST INCOMING SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM THE S. BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL SHIFT SE...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VT/NH THANKS TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE BETTER REALIZING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THEN IT WILL BE
A RACE AGAINST TIME AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS S AND INTERACTS WITH
THE VARIOUS FRONTS /COLD AND SEA BREEZE/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO
MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THE I-495 CORRIDOR
AND INTO RI...WHERE THE FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO MEET. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG...BUT WITH THE
CORE OF BEST LAPSE RATES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING...IT MAY STRUGGLE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CAPPING BOTH
T-STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SCT STILL REMAINS THE BEST
FORECAST. PWATS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT GIVEN THE
SCT NATURE IT/S POSSIBLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN DRY.

SHOULD ANY STORMS HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...THE UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK. THEREFORE...STILL NOT MENTIONING ANY ENHANCED
WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE AS HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL
WOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED EVENT.

HEAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY INLAND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
FURTHER E. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 90S W...TO LOW 80S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...LINGERING RISK OF ISOLATED -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT SO WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR MA/CT ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF RAIN FALLS. ERN MA/RI WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AM HOURS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...SO MINS
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN SPITE OF COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING OVER FROM
THE NE.

FRI...
BREEZY AND COOLER THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND H85
TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND +12C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER WILL LEAD TO STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT
BL DEPTH. THEREFORE...UNLIKELY MIXING TO H85...LIMITING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOW 70S WILL BE NEAR
SHORE...THANKS TO SST/S NEAR THESE VALUES. THE NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ITS NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET BEGINS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THUS OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY AT OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT THE EURO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +18C ACROSS SNE BY MON AND
TUE! GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AT
+16C/+17C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. REGARDING PRECIP...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POTENTIAL WILDCARD NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
CONUS MAY BE LINKED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMES ABSORBED
AND POTENTIALLY ENERGIZES THE NORTHERN STREAM.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...

ANOMALOUS 1025 MB ANTICYCLONE/SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO SNE. THIS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO YIELD COOL TEMPS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE U40S! THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE /H5 HEIGHTS OF 591 DM AND
1024 MB SFC HI/ OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE U70S AND L80S SAT AFTN AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUN AND
MON HOWEVER HUMIDITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH DEW PTS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE U50S AND L60S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES TUE BUT MAY
JUST WASHOUT AS RIDGE WINS OUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAY ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A MARINE STRATUS DECK /WITH FOG/
DRIFTING EAST OFF LONG ISLAND THAT MAY PRODUCE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ON
BLOCK ISLAND AND NEARBY SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...SHOULD GRADUALLY
MIX/LIFT THRU NOON TODAY. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY SCT
-SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND FRI...
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT BURN OFF.
BREEZY EARLY FRI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
MARINE CLOUD/FOG BANK DRIFINT EAST FROM LONG ISLAND AND
VICINITY...WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE VICINITY OF BLOCK
ISLAND/LONG ISLAND SOUND AND WATERS SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND THRU
MIDDAY...POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS CLOUD/FOG BANK TO
SLOWLY MIX/LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT
BACKDOORS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
PREVAILS...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE TODAY MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED ROUGH CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...
N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 KT AT TIMES EARLY AM INTO ABOUT MID DAY.
SEAS INCREASE AS WELL...REACHING NEAR 5 FT FIRST ON THE E
WATERS...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRI...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIGHT/VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031102
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
702 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK YIELDING MAINLY DRY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

A MILD MORNING IN PROGRESS WITH 7 AM TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE REGION. DEW PTS ARE IN THE 60S AS WELL AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAS LEAD
TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. HOWEVER JUST LIKE YESTERDAY FOG
WILL BURN OFF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SUN ANGLE INCREASES
AND BEGINS TO MIX DOWN SOME WIND AND DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. THIS
IS HANDLED WELL BY PREVIOUS FORECAST SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CI DEBRIS FROM EARLY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPILL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPITE OF THE
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS ALREADY REPORTING
MODEST FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN CT/MA.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...STALLING AS IT MEETS THE MORE ROBUST INCOMING SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM THE S. BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL SHIFT SE...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VT/NH THANKS TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE BETTER REALIZING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THEN IT WILL BE
A RACE AGAINST TIME AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS S AND INTERACTS WITH
THE VARIOUS FRONTS /COLD AND SEA BREEZE/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO
MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THE I-495 CORRIDOR
AND INTO RI...WHERE THE FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO MEET. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG...BUT WITH THE
CORE OF BEST LAPSE RATES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING...IT MAY STRUGGLE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CAPPING BOTH
T-STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SCT STILL REMAINS THE BEST
FORECAST. PWATS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT GIVEN THE
SCT NATURE IT/S POSSIBLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN DRY.

SHOULD ANY STORMS HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...THE UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK. THEREFORE...STILL NOT MENTIONING ANY ENHANCED
WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE AS HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL
WOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED EVENT.

HEAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY INLAND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
FURTHER E. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 90S W...TO LOW 80S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...LINGERING RISK OF ISOLATED -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT SO WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR MA/CT ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF RAIN FALLS. ERN MA/RI WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AM HOURS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...SO MINS
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN SPITE OF COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING OVER FROM
THE NE.

FRI...
BREEZY AND COOLER THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND H85
TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND +12C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER WILL LEAD TO STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT
BL DEPTH. THEREFORE...UNLIKELY MIXING TO H85...LIMITING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOW 70S WILL BE NEAR
SHORE...THANKS TO SST/S NEAR THESE VALUES. THE NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ITS NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET BEGINS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THUS OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY AT OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT THE EURO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +18C ACROSS SNE BY MON AND
TUE! GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AT
+16C/+17C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. REGARDING PRECIP...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POTENTIAL WILDCARD NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
CONUS MAY BE LINKED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMES ABSORBED
AND POTENTIALLY ENERGIZES THE NORTHERN STREAM.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...

ANOMALOUS 1025 MB ANTICYCLONE/SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO SNE. THIS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO YIELD COOL TEMPS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE U40S! THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE /H5 HEIGHTS OF 591 DM AND
1024 MB SFC HI/ OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE U70S AND L80S SAT AFTN AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUN AND
MON HOWEVER HUMIDITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH DEW PTS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE U50S AND L60S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES TUE BUT MAY
JUST WASHOUT AS RIDGE WINS OUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAY ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z AND 09Z TAF ISSUANCES. PATCHY IFR AND
LIFR IN FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z OR SO. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY...
MAINLY VFR. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY SCT -SHRA/TSTMS
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND FRI...
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT BURN OFF.
BREEZY EARLY FRI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE FOR THE MID
MORNING PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT BACKDOORS FROM
THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER PREVAILS...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE TODAY MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED ROUGH
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...
N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 KT AT TIMES EARLY AM INTO ABOUT MID DAY.
SEAS INCREASE AS WELL...REACHING NEAR 5 FT FIRST ON THE E
WATERS...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRI...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIGHT/VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031102
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
702 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK YIELDING MAINLY DRY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

A MILD MORNING IN PROGRESS WITH 7 AM TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE REGION. DEW PTS ARE IN THE 60S AS WELL AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAS LEAD
TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. HOWEVER JUST LIKE YESTERDAY FOG
WILL BURN OFF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SUN ANGLE INCREASES
AND BEGINS TO MIX DOWN SOME WIND AND DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. THIS
IS HANDLED WELL BY PREVIOUS FORECAST SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CI DEBRIS FROM EARLY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPILL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPITE OF THE
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS ALREADY REPORTING
MODEST FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN CT/MA.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...STALLING AS IT MEETS THE MORE ROBUST INCOMING SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM THE S. BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL SHIFT SE...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VT/NH THANKS TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE BETTER REALIZING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THEN IT WILL BE
A RACE AGAINST TIME AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS S AND INTERACTS WITH
THE VARIOUS FRONTS /COLD AND SEA BREEZE/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO
MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THE I-495 CORRIDOR
AND INTO RI...WHERE THE FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO MEET. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG...BUT WITH THE
CORE OF BEST LAPSE RATES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING...IT MAY STRUGGLE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CAPPING BOTH
T-STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SCT STILL REMAINS THE BEST
FORECAST. PWATS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT GIVEN THE
SCT NATURE IT/S POSSIBLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN DRY.

SHOULD ANY STORMS HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...THE UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK. THEREFORE...STILL NOT MENTIONING ANY ENHANCED
WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE AS HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL
WOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED EVENT.

HEAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY INLAND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
FURTHER E. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 90S W...TO LOW 80S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...LINGERING RISK OF ISOLATED -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT SO WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR MA/CT ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF RAIN FALLS. ERN MA/RI WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AM HOURS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...SO MINS
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN SPITE OF COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING OVER FROM
THE NE.

FRI...
BREEZY AND COOLER THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND H85
TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND +12C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER WILL LEAD TO STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT
BL DEPTH. THEREFORE...UNLIKELY MIXING TO H85...LIMITING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOW 70S WILL BE NEAR
SHORE...THANKS TO SST/S NEAR THESE VALUES. THE NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ITS NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET BEGINS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THUS OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY AT OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT THE EURO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +18C ACROSS SNE BY MON AND
TUE! GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AT
+16C/+17C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. REGARDING PRECIP...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POTENTIAL WILDCARD NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
CONUS MAY BE LINKED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMES ABSORBED
AND POTENTIALLY ENERGIZES THE NORTHERN STREAM.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...

ANOMALOUS 1025 MB ANTICYCLONE/SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO SNE. THIS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO YIELD COOL TEMPS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE U40S! THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE /H5 HEIGHTS OF 591 DM AND
1024 MB SFC HI/ OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE U70S AND L80S SAT AFTN AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUN AND
MON HOWEVER HUMIDITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH DEW PTS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE U50S AND L60S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES TUE BUT MAY
JUST WASHOUT AS RIDGE WINS OUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAY ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z AND 09Z TAF ISSUANCES. PATCHY IFR AND
LIFR IN FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z OR SO. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY...
MAINLY VFR. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY SCT -SHRA/TSTMS
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND FRI...
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT BURN OFF.
BREEZY EARLY FRI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE FOR THE MID
MORNING PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT BACKDOORS FROM
THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER PREVAILS...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE TODAY MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED ROUGH
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...
N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 KT AT TIMES EARLY AM INTO ABOUT MID DAY.
SEAS INCREASE AS WELL...REACHING NEAR 5 FT FIRST ON THE E
WATERS...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRI...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIGHT/VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031102
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
702 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK YIELDING MAINLY DRY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

A MILD MORNING IN PROGRESS WITH 7 AM TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE REGION. DEW PTS ARE IN THE 60S AS WELL AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAS LEAD
TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. HOWEVER JUST LIKE YESTERDAY FOG
WILL BURN OFF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SUN ANGLE INCREASES
AND BEGINS TO MIX DOWN SOME WIND AND DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. THIS
IS HANDLED WELL BY PREVIOUS FORECAST SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CI DEBRIS FROM EARLY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPILL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPITE OF THE
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS ALREADY REPORTING
MODEST FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN CT/MA.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...STALLING AS IT MEETS THE MORE ROBUST INCOMING SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM THE S. BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL SHIFT SE...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VT/NH THANKS TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE BETTER REALIZING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THEN IT WILL BE
A RACE AGAINST TIME AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS S AND INTERACTS WITH
THE VARIOUS FRONTS /COLD AND SEA BREEZE/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO
MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THE I-495 CORRIDOR
AND INTO RI...WHERE THE FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO MEET. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG...BUT WITH THE
CORE OF BEST LAPSE RATES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING...IT MAY STRUGGLE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CAPPING BOTH
T-STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SCT STILL REMAINS THE BEST
FORECAST. PWATS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT GIVEN THE
SCT NATURE IT/S POSSIBLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN DRY.

SHOULD ANY STORMS HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...THE UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK. THEREFORE...STILL NOT MENTIONING ANY ENHANCED
WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE AS HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL
WOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED EVENT.

HEAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY INLAND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
FURTHER E. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 90S W...TO LOW 80S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...LINGERING RISK OF ISOLATED -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT SO WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR MA/CT ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF RAIN FALLS. ERN MA/RI WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AM HOURS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...SO MINS
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN SPITE OF COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING OVER FROM
THE NE.

FRI...
BREEZY AND COOLER THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND H85
TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND +12C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER WILL LEAD TO STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT
BL DEPTH. THEREFORE...UNLIKELY MIXING TO H85...LIMITING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOW 70S WILL BE NEAR
SHORE...THANKS TO SST/S NEAR THESE VALUES. THE NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ITS NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET BEGINS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THUS OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY AT OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT THE EURO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +18C ACROSS SNE BY MON AND
TUE! GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AT
+16C/+17C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. REGARDING PRECIP...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POTENTIAL WILDCARD NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
CONUS MAY BE LINKED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMES ABSORBED
AND POTENTIALLY ENERGIZES THE NORTHERN STREAM.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...

ANOMALOUS 1025 MB ANTICYCLONE/SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO SNE. THIS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO YIELD COOL TEMPS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE U40S! THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE /H5 HEIGHTS OF 591 DM AND
1024 MB SFC HI/ OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE U70S AND L80S SAT AFTN AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUN AND
MON HOWEVER HUMIDITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH DEW PTS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE U50S AND L60S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES TUE BUT MAY
JUST WASHOUT AS RIDGE WINS OUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAY ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z AND 09Z TAF ISSUANCES. PATCHY IFR AND
LIFR IN FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z OR SO. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY...
MAINLY VFR. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY SCT -SHRA/TSTMS
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND FRI...
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT BURN OFF.
BREEZY EARLY FRI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE FOR THE MID
MORNING PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT BACKDOORS FROM
THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER PREVAILS...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE TODAY MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED ROUGH
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...
N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 KT AT TIMES EARLY AM INTO ABOUT MID DAY.
SEAS INCREASE AS WELL...REACHING NEAR 5 FT FIRST ON THE E
WATERS...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRI...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIGHT/VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031102
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
702 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK YIELDING MAINLY DRY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

A MILD MORNING IN PROGRESS WITH 7 AM TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE REGION. DEW PTS ARE IN THE 60S AS WELL AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAS LEAD
TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. HOWEVER JUST LIKE YESTERDAY FOG
WILL BURN OFF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SUN ANGLE INCREASES
AND BEGINS TO MIX DOWN SOME WIND AND DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. THIS
IS HANDLED WELL BY PREVIOUS FORECAST SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CI DEBRIS FROM EARLY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPILL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPITE OF THE
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS ALREADY REPORTING
MODEST FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN CT/MA.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...STALLING AS IT MEETS THE MORE ROBUST INCOMING SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM THE S. BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL SHIFT SE...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VT/NH THANKS TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE BETTER REALIZING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THEN IT WILL BE
A RACE AGAINST TIME AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS S AND INTERACTS WITH
THE VARIOUS FRONTS /COLD AND SEA BREEZE/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO
MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THE I-495 CORRIDOR
AND INTO RI...WHERE THE FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO MEET. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG...BUT WITH THE
CORE OF BEST LAPSE RATES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING...IT MAY STRUGGLE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CAPPING BOTH
T-STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SCT STILL REMAINS THE BEST
FORECAST. PWATS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT GIVEN THE
SCT NATURE IT/S POSSIBLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN DRY.

SHOULD ANY STORMS HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...THE UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK. THEREFORE...STILL NOT MENTIONING ANY ENHANCED
WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE AS HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL
WOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED EVENT.

HEAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY INLAND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
FURTHER E. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 90S W...TO LOW 80S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...LINGERING RISK OF ISOLATED -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT SO WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR MA/CT ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF RAIN FALLS. ERN MA/RI WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AM HOURS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...SO MINS
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN SPITE OF COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING OVER FROM
THE NE.

FRI...
BREEZY AND COOLER THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND H85
TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND +12C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER WILL LEAD TO STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT
BL DEPTH. THEREFORE...UNLIKELY MIXING TO H85...LIMITING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOW 70S WILL BE NEAR
SHORE...THANKS TO SST/S NEAR THESE VALUES. THE NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ITS NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET BEGINS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THUS OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY AT OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT THE EURO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +18C ACROSS SNE BY MON AND
TUE! GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AT
+16C/+17C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. REGARDING PRECIP...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POTENTIAL WILDCARD NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
CONUS MAY BE LINKED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMES ABSORBED
AND POTENTIALLY ENERGIZES THE NORTHERN STREAM.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...

ANOMALOUS 1025 MB ANTICYCLONE/SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO SNE. THIS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO YIELD COOL TEMPS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE U40S! THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE /H5 HEIGHTS OF 591 DM AND
1024 MB SFC HI/ OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE U70S AND L80S SAT AFTN AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUN AND
MON HOWEVER HUMIDITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH DEW PTS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE U50S AND L60S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES TUE BUT MAY
JUST WASHOUT AS RIDGE WINS OUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAY ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z AND 09Z TAF ISSUANCES. PATCHY IFR AND
LIFR IN FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z OR SO. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY...
MAINLY VFR. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY SCT -SHRA/TSTMS
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND FRI...
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT BURN OFF.
BREEZY EARLY FRI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE FOR THE MID
MORNING PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT BACKDOORS FROM
THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER PREVAILS...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE TODAY MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED ROUGH
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...
N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 KT AT TIMES EARLY AM INTO ABOUT MID DAY.
SEAS INCREASE AS WELL...REACHING NEAR 5 FT FIRST ON THE E
WATERS...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRI...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIGHT/VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KALY 031054
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
654 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE BEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SCT-BKN
CI/CS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG PER METARS AND EARLY MORNING SUNRISE
WEB CAMS. 06Z GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/S/ YET COVERAGE REMAINS IN
QUESTION. HRRR REMAINS LESS THAN IDEAL YET THE MAV MOS POPS CAME
IN HIGHER. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS PER
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS.

PREV DISC...PER THE SURFACE ANALYSIS A WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
AXIS WAS DRAPED ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT /COLD FRONT/ ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LOWER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TRENDS IN THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE ALONG
THE PREVIOUS ESTF WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE
WEAKENING SHOWER TREND ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. OTHERWISE...A THIN SCT-BKN CI/CS CANOPY WAS ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION AND WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR FOG FORMATION TO COMMENCE PER A FEW METARS AND REGIONAL WEB
CAMS. AS SUNRISE APPROACHES...EXPECT THE FOG TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE
AS THE CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO THICKEN. LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE AND FOR SOME
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE OFFER QUITE A
DIFFERENT APPROACH TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE HIGHEST WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING IN EXCESS
OF 2K J/KG. THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF AS MUCH WHICH IS IN CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH THE HOURLY MESOSCALE UPDATES FROM THE RAP13/HRRR.
THIS IS LIKELY THE CULPRIT OF THE FORECAST SFC DEWPOINTS AS
UPSTREAM VALUES WERE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE
NAM WITH VALUES CLOSE TO 70F. AS FOR LAPSE RATES...MODEST VALUES
SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES WITH AN AVERAGE 6.5-7.0 C/KM WITHIN THE
H850-500 LAYER. YET THE WIND SHEAR IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH VALUES 20KTS OR LESS. PER SPC
COORDINATION...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND PER THOSE
SOUNDINGS...COULD NOT RULE OUT 1-2 EVENTS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
COMBINATION OF INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS AND PRECIP LOADING
CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN WEDNESDAYS HIGHS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH MAINLY MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TONIGHT RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM NORTHEAST CANADA. TRENDS IN THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ENE TRAJECTORIES ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO THE GREENS...BERKS AND NW CT AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOUTH OF I90 COULD KEEP CLOUDS A
BIT LONGER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER. MOS VALUES OVERNIGHT
ARE VERY CLOSE AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. FOG POTENTIAL
IS NOT THAT CLEAR AT THIS TIME AS WE WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.
HOWEVER...THEY BOTH AGREE THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET
HUNG UP ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR WHERE WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS H925-850 COOL OFF
FROM THE ENE INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THIS SHOULD YIELD EVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH NEAR 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW
U40S IN THE SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY
FORM...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG.

SATURDAY...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. H925-850 TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BIG BUBBLE...LITTLE TROUBLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND EVALUATED IN
LATER FORECASTS. LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL AND KPSF BETWEEN
12Z-14Z/THU. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...OUTSIDE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN
18Z- 22Z/THU. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE CORES OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z/FRI...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/FRI.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR SPREAD WESTWARD BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z/FRI...ESP AT KPSF AND KPOU. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH KPSF COULD APPROACH IFR CIGS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 13Z/THU...THEN TREND
INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE N TO NE BETWEEN 01Z-04Z/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH COULD BRIEFLY GUST INTO THE
10-20 KT RANGE...ESP AT KGFL DUE TO CHANNELING DOWN THE UPPER
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE
FORECAST...CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD
TOUCH OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY
LINGER SOUTH OF I90 INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 031054
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
654 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE BEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SCT-BKN
CI/CS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG PER METARS AND EARLY MORNING SUNRISE
WEB CAMS. 06Z GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/S/ YET COVERAGE REMAINS IN
QUESTION. HRRR REMAINS LESS THAN IDEAL YET THE MAV MOS POPS CAME
IN HIGHER. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS PER
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS.

PREV DISC...PER THE SURFACE ANALYSIS A WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
AXIS WAS DRAPED ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT /COLD FRONT/ ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LOWER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TRENDS IN THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE ALONG
THE PREVIOUS ESTF WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE
WEAKENING SHOWER TREND ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. OTHERWISE...A THIN SCT-BKN CI/CS CANOPY WAS ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION AND WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR FOG FORMATION TO COMMENCE PER A FEW METARS AND REGIONAL WEB
CAMS. AS SUNRISE APPROACHES...EXPECT THE FOG TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE
AS THE CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO THICKEN. LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE AND FOR SOME
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE OFFER QUITE A
DIFFERENT APPROACH TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE HIGHEST WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING IN EXCESS
OF 2K J/KG. THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF AS MUCH WHICH IS IN CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH THE HOURLY MESOSCALE UPDATES FROM THE RAP13/HRRR.
THIS IS LIKELY THE CULPRIT OF THE FORECAST SFC DEWPOINTS AS
UPSTREAM VALUES WERE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE
NAM WITH VALUES CLOSE TO 70F. AS FOR LAPSE RATES...MODEST VALUES
SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES WITH AN AVERAGE 6.5-7.0 C/KM WITHIN THE
H850-500 LAYER. YET THE WIND SHEAR IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH VALUES 20KTS OR LESS. PER SPC
COORDINATION...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND PER THOSE
SOUNDINGS...COULD NOT RULE OUT 1-2 EVENTS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
COMBINATION OF INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS AND PRECIP LOADING
CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN WEDNESDAYS HIGHS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH MAINLY MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TONIGHT RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM NORTHEAST CANADA. TRENDS IN THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ENE TRAJECTORIES ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO THE GREENS...BERKS AND NW CT AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOUTH OF I90 COULD KEEP CLOUDS A
BIT LONGER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER. MOS VALUES OVERNIGHT
ARE VERY CLOSE AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. FOG POTENTIAL
IS NOT THAT CLEAR AT THIS TIME AS WE WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.
HOWEVER...THEY BOTH AGREE THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET
HUNG UP ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR WHERE WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS H925-850 COOL OFF
FROM THE ENE INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THIS SHOULD YIELD EVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH NEAR 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW
U40S IN THE SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY
FORM...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG.

SATURDAY...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. H925-850 TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BIG BUBBLE...LITTLE TROUBLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND EVALUATED IN
LATER FORECASTS. LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL AND KPSF BETWEEN
12Z-14Z/THU. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...OUTSIDE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN
18Z- 22Z/THU. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE CORES OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z/FRI...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/FRI.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR SPREAD WESTWARD BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z/FRI...ESP AT KPSF AND KPOU. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH KPSF COULD APPROACH IFR CIGS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 13Z/THU...THEN TREND
INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE N TO NE BETWEEN 01Z-04Z/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH COULD BRIEFLY GUST INTO THE
10-20 KT RANGE...ESP AT KGFL DUE TO CHANNELING DOWN THE UPPER
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE
FORECAST...CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD
TOUCH OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY
LINGER SOUTH OF I90 INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 031033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE BEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...PER THE SURFACE ANALYSIS A WEAK PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH AXIS WAS DRAPED ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT /COLD FRONT/ ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
LOWER ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TRENDS IN THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE
ALONG THE PREVIOUS ESTF WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS WHICH COINCIDES
WITH THE WEAKENING SHOWER TREND ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...A THIN SCT-BKN CI/CS CANOPY WAS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR FOG FORMATION TO COMMENCE PER A FEW METARS
AND REGIONAL WEB CAMS. AS SUNRISE APPROACHES...EXPECT THE FOG TO
LIFT AND DISSIPATE AS THE CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO
THICKEN. LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE
COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH
OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
INCREASE AND FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LATEST NCEP MODEL
SUITE OFFER QUITE A DIFFERENT APPROACH TO THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE HIGHEST
WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 2K J/KG. THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF
AS MUCH WHICH IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE HOURLY MESOSCALE
UPDATES FROM THE RAP13/HRRR. THIS IS LIKELY THE CULPRIT OF THE
FORECAST SFC DEWPOINTS AS UPSTREAM VALUES WERE CURRENTLY IN THE
MID 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE NAM WITH VALUES CLOSE TO 70F. AS FOR
LAPSE RATES...MODEST VALUES SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES WITH AN
AVERAGE 6.5-7.0 C/KM WITHIN THE H850-500 LAYER. YET THE WIND
SHEAR IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH VALUES
20KTS OR LESS. PER SPC COORDINATION...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT
AND PER THOSE SOUNDINGS...COULD NOT RULE OUT 1-2 EVENTS ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE COMBINATION OF INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS AND PRECIP
LOADING CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN WEDNESDAYS HIGHS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH MAINLY MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TONIGHT RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM NORTHEAST CANADA. TRENDS IN THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ENE TRAJECTORIES ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO THE GREENS...BERKS AND NW CT AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOUTH OF I90 COULD KEEP CLOUDS A
BIT LONGER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER. MOS VALUES OVERNIGHT
ARE VERY CLOSE AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. FOG POTENTIAL
IS NOT THAT CLEAR AT THIS TIME AS WE WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.
HOWEVER...THEY BOTH AGREE THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET
HUNG UP ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR WHERE WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS H925-850 COOL OFF
FROM THE ENE INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THIS SHOULD YIELD EVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH NEAR 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW
U40S IN THE SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY
FORM...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG.

SATURDAY...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. H925-850 TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BIG BUBBLE...LITTLE TROUBLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND EVALUATED IN
LATER FORECASTS. LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL AND KPSF BETWEEN
12Z-14Z/THU. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...OUTSIDE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN
18Z- 22Z/THU. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE CORES OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z/FRI...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/FRI.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR SPREAD WESTWARD BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z/FRI...ESP AT KPSF AND KPOU. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH KPSF COULD APPROACH IFR CIGS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 13Z/THU...THEN TREND
INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE N TO NE BETWEEN 01Z-04Z/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH COULD BRIEFLY GUST INTO THE
10-20 KT RANGE...ESP AT KGFL DUE TO CHANNELING DOWN THE UPPER
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE
FORECAST...CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD
TOUCH OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY
LINGER SOUTH OF I90 INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 031033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE BEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...PER THE SURFACE ANALYSIS A WEAK PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH AXIS WAS DRAPED ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT /COLD FRONT/ ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
LOWER ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TRENDS IN THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE
ALONG THE PREVIOUS ESTF WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS WHICH COINCIDES
WITH THE WEAKENING SHOWER TREND ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...A THIN SCT-BKN CI/CS CANOPY WAS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR FOG FORMATION TO COMMENCE PER A FEW METARS
AND REGIONAL WEB CAMS. AS SUNRISE APPROACHES...EXPECT THE FOG TO
LIFT AND DISSIPATE AS THE CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO
THICKEN. LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE
COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH
OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
INCREASE AND FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LATEST NCEP MODEL
SUITE OFFER QUITE A DIFFERENT APPROACH TO THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE HIGHEST
WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 2K J/KG. THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF
AS MUCH WHICH IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE HOURLY MESOSCALE
UPDATES FROM THE RAP13/HRRR. THIS IS LIKELY THE CULPRIT OF THE
FORECAST SFC DEWPOINTS AS UPSTREAM VALUES WERE CURRENTLY IN THE
MID 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE NAM WITH VALUES CLOSE TO 70F. AS FOR
LAPSE RATES...MODEST VALUES SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES WITH AN
AVERAGE 6.5-7.0 C/KM WITHIN THE H850-500 LAYER. YET THE WIND
SHEAR IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH VALUES
20KTS OR LESS. PER SPC COORDINATION...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT
AND PER THOSE SOUNDINGS...COULD NOT RULE OUT 1-2 EVENTS ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE COMBINATION OF INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS AND PRECIP
LOADING CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN WEDNESDAYS HIGHS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH MAINLY MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TONIGHT RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM NORTHEAST CANADA. TRENDS IN THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ENE TRAJECTORIES ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO THE GREENS...BERKS AND NW CT AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOUTH OF I90 COULD KEEP CLOUDS A
BIT LONGER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER. MOS VALUES OVERNIGHT
ARE VERY CLOSE AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. FOG POTENTIAL
IS NOT THAT CLEAR AT THIS TIME AS WE WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.
HOWEVER...THEY BOTH AGREE THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET
HUNG UP ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR WHERE WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS H925-850 COOL OFF
FROM THE ENE INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THIS SHOULD YIELD EVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH NEAR 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW
U40S IN THE SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY
FORM...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG.

SATURDAY...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. H925-850 TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BIG BUBBLE...LITTLE TROUBLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND EVALUATED IN
LATER FORECASTS. LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL AND KPSF BETWEEN
12Z-14Z/THU. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...OUTSIDE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN
18Z- 22Z/THU. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE CORES OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z/FRI...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/FRI.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR SPREAD WESTWARD BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z/FRI...ESP AT KPSF AND KPOU. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH KPSF COULD APPROACH IFR CIGS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 13Z/THU...THEN TREND
INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE N TO NE BETWEEN 01Z-04Z/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH COULD BRIEFLY GUST INTO THE
10-20 KT RANGE...ESP AT KGFL DUE TO CHANNELING DOWN THE UPPER
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE
FORECAST...CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD
TOUCH OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY
LINGER SOUTH OF I90 INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 031033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE BEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...PER THE SURFACE ANALYSIS A WEAK PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH AXIS WAS DRAPED ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT /COLD FRONT/ ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
LOWER ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TRENDS IN THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE
ALONG THE PREVIOUS ESTF WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS WHICH COINCIDES
WITH THE WEAKENING SHOWER TREND ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...A THIN SCT-BKN CI/CS CANOPY WAS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR FOG FORMATION TO COMMENCE PER A FEW METARS
AND REGIONAL WEB CAMS. AS SUNRISE APPROACHES...EXPECT THE FOG TO
LIFT AND DISSIPATE AS THE CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO
THICKEN. LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE
COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH
OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
INCREASE AND FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LATEST NCEP MODEL
SUITE OFFER QUITE A DIFFERENT APPROACH TO THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE HIGHEST
WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 2K J/KG. THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF
AS MUCH WHICH IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE HOURLY MESOSCALE
UPDATES FROM THE RAP13/HRRR. THIS IS LIKELY THE CULPRIT OF THE
FORECAST SFC DEWPOINTS AS UPSTREAM VALUES WERE CURRENTLY IN THE
MID 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE NAM WITH VALUES CLOSE TO 70F. AS FOR
LAPSE RATES...MODEST VALUES SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES WITH AN
AVERAGE 6.5-7.0 C/KM WITHIN THE H850-500 LAYER. YET THE WIND
SHEAR IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH VALUES
20KTS OR LESS. PER SPC COORDINATION...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT
AND PER THOSE SOUNDINGS...COULD NOT RULE OUT 1-2 EVENTS ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE COMBINATION OF INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS AND PRECIP
LOADING CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN WEDNESDAYS HIGHS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH MAINLY MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TONIGHT RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM NORTHEAST CANADA. TRENDS IN THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ENE TRAJECTORIES ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO THE GREENS...BERKS AND NW CT AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOUTH OF I90 COULD KEEP CLOUDS A
BIT LONGER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER. MOS VALUES OVERNIGHT
ARE VERY CLOSE AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. FOG POTENTIAL
IS NOT THAT CLEAR AT THIS TIME AS WE WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.
HOWEVER...THEY BOTH AGREE THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET
HUNG UP ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR WHERE WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS H925-850 COOL OFF
FROM THE ENE INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THIS SHOULD YIELD EVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH NEAR 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW
U40S IN THE SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY
FORM...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG.

SATURDAY...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. H925-850 TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BIG BUBBLE...LITTLE TROUBLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND EVALUATED IN
LATER FORECASTS. LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL AND KPSF BETWEEN
12Z-14Z/THU. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...OUTSIDE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN
18Z- 22Z/THU. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE CORES OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z/FRI...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/FRI.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR SPREAD WESTWARD BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z/FRI...ESP AT KPSF AND KPOU. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH KPSF COULD APPROACH IFR CIGS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 13Z/THU...THEN TREND
INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE N TO NE BETWEEN 01Z-04Z/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH COULD BRIEFLY GUST INTO THE
10-20 KT RANGE...ESP AT KGFL DUE TO CHANNELING DOWN THE UPPER
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE
FORECAST...CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD
TOUCH OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY
LINGER SOUTH OF I90 INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 031033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE BEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...PER THE SURFACE ANALYSIS A WEAK PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH AXIS WAS DRAPED ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT /COLD FRONT/ ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
LOWER ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TRENDS IN THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE
ALONG THE PREVIOUS ESTF WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS WHICH COINCIDES
WITH THE WEAKENING SHOWER TREND ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...A THIN SCT-BKN CI/CS CANOPY WAS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR FOG FORMATION TO COMMENCE PER A FEW METARS
AND REGIONAL WEB CAMS. AS SUNRISE APPROACHES...EXPECT THE FOG TO
LIFT AND DISSIPATE AS THE CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO
THICKEN. LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE
COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH
OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
INCREASE AND FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LATEST NCEP MODEL
SUITE OFFER QUITE A DIFFERENT APPROACH TO THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE HIGHEST
WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 2K J/KG. THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF
AS MUCH WHICH IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE HOURLY MESOSCALE
UPDATES FROM THE RAP13/HRRR. THIS IS LIKELY THE CULPRIT OF THE
FORECAST SFC DEWPOINTS AS UPSTREAM VALUES WERE CURRENTLY IN THE
MID 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE NAM WITH VALUES CLOSE TO 70F. AS FOR
LAPSE RATES...MODEST VALUES SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES WITH AN
AVERAGE 6.5-7.0 C/KM WITHIN THE H850-500 LAYER. YET THE WIND
SHEAR IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH VALUES
20KTS OR LESS. PER SPC COORDINATION...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT
AND PER THOSE SOUNDINGS...COULD NOT RULE OUT 1-2 EVENTS ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE COMBINATION OF INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS AND PRECIP
LOADING CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN WEDNESDAYS HIGHS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH MAINLY MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TONIGHT RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM NORTHEAST CANADA. TRENDS IN THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ENE TRAJECTORIES ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO THE GREENS...BERKS AND NW CT AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOUTH OF I90 COULD KEEP CLOUDS A
BIT LONGER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER. MOS VALUES OVERNIGHT
ARE VERY CLOSE AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. FOG POTENTIAL
IS NOT THAT CLEAR AT THIS TIME AS WE WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.
HOWEVER...THEY BOTH AGREE THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET
HUNG UP ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR WHERE WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS H925-850 COOL OFF
FROM THE ENE INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THIS SHOULD YIELD EVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH NEAR 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW
U40S IN THE SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY
FORM...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG.

SATURDAY...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. H925-850 TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BIG BUBBLE...LITTLE TROUBLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND EVALUATED IN
LATER FORECASTS. LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL AND KPSF BETWEEN
12Z-14Z/THU. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...OUTSIDE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN
18Z- 22Z/THU. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE CORES OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z/FRI...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/FRI.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR SPREAD WESTWARD BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z/FRI...ESP AT KPSF AND KPOU. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH KPSF COULD APPROACH IFR CIGS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 13Z/THU...THEN TREND
INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE N TO NE BETWEEN 01Z-04Z/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH COULD BRIEFLY GUST INTO THE
10-20 KT RANGE...ESP AT KGFL DUE TO CHANNELING DOWN THE UPPER
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE
FORECAST...CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD
TOUCH OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY
LINGER SOUTH OF I90 INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 030803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE BEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...PER THE SURFACE ANALYSIS A WEAK PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH AXIS WAS DRAPED ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT /COLD FRONT/ ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
LOWER ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TRENDS IN THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE
ALONG THE PREVIOUS ESTF WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS WHICH COINCIDES
WITH THE WEAKENING SHOWER TREND ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...A THIN SCT-BKN CI/CS CANOPY WAS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR FOG FORMATION TO COMMENCE PER A FEW METARS
AND REGIONAL WEB CAMS. AS SUNRISE APPROACHES...EXPECT THE FOG TO
LIFT AND DISSIPATE AS THE CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO
THICKEN. LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE
COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH
OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
INCREASE AND FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LATEST NCEP MODEL
SUITE OFFER QUITE A DIFFERENT APPROACH TO THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE HIGHEST
WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 2K J/KG. THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF
AS MUCH WHICH IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE HOURLY MESOSCALE
UPDATES FROM THE RAP13/HRRR. THIS IS LIKELY THE CULPRIT OF THE
FORECAST SFC DEWPOINTS AS UPSTREAM VALUES WERE CURRENTLY IN THE
MID 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE NAM WITH VALUES CLOSE TO 70F. AS FOR
LAPSE RATES...MODEST VALUES SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES WITH AN
AVERAGE 6.5-7.0 C/KM WITHIN THE H850-500 LAYER. YET THE WIND
SHEAR IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH VALUES
20KTS OR LESS. PER SPC COORDINATION...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT
AND PER THOSE SOUNDINGS...COULD NOT RULE OUT 1-2 EVENTS ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE COMBINATION OF INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS AND PRECIP
LOADING CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN WEDNESDAYS HIGHS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH MAINLY MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TONIGHT RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM NORTHEAST CANADA. TRENDS IN THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ENE TRAJECTORIES ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO THE GREENS...BERKS AND NW CT AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOUTH OF I90 COULD KEEP CLOUDS A
BIT LONGER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER. MOS VALUES OVERNIGHT
ARE VERY CLOSE AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. FOG POTENTIAL
IS NOT THAT CLEAR AT THIS TIME AS WE WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.
HOWEVER...THEY BOTH AGREE THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET
HUNG UP ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR WHERE WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS H925-850 COOL OFF
FROM THE ENE INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THIS SHOULD YIELD EVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH NEAR 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW
U40S IN THE SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY
FORM...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG.

SATURDAY...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. H925-850 TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BIG BUBBLE...LITTLE TROUBLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND EVALUATED IN
LATER FORECASTS. LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THROUGH 13Z/THU...PATCHY GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT
MAY REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRIES TO MIX INTO
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TOWARD 10Z-13Z/THU. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INDICATED PERIODS OF IFR FOR KGFL/KPSF...WHILE VFR/MVFR FOR KALB
AND KPOU.

AFTER 13Z/THU...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z-22Z/THU.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND EAST OF THE
TAF SITES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE IMPACTING THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR
WITHIN THE CORES OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z/FRI...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/FRI.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 13Z/THU...THEN TREND
INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE N TO NE BETWEEN 01Z-04Z/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH COULD BRIEFLY GUST INTO THE
10-20 KT RANGE...ESP AT KGFL DUE TO CHANNELING DOWN THE UPPER
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE
FORECAST...CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD
TOUCH OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY
LINGER SOUTH OF I90 INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 030803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE BEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...PER THE SURFACE ANALYSIS A WEAK PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH AXIS WAS DRAPED ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT /COLD FRONT/ ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
LOWER ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TRENDS IN THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE
ALONG THE PREVIOUS ESTF WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS WHICH COINCIDES
WITH THE WEAKENING SHOWER TREND ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...A THIN SCT-BKN CI/CS CANOPY WAS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR FOG FORMATION TO COMMENCE PER A FEW METARS
AND REGIONAL WEB CAMS. AS SUNRISE APPROACHES...EXPECT THE FOG TO
LIFT AND DISSIPATE AS THE CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO
THICKEN. LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE
COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH
OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
INCREASE AND FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LATEST NCEP MODEL
SUITE OFFER QUITE A DIFFERENT APPROACH TO THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE HIGHEST
WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 2K J/KG. THE GFS IS ABOUT HALF
AS MUCH WHICH IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE HOURLY MESOSCALE
UPDATES FROM THE RAP13/HRRR. THIS IS LIKELY THE CULPRIT OF THE
FORECAST SFC DEWPOINTS AS UPSTREAM VALUES WERE CURRENTLY IN THE
MID 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE NAM WITH VALUES CLOSE TO 70F. AS FOR
LAPSE RATES...MODEST VALUES SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES WITH AN
AVERAGE 6.5-7.0 C/KM WITHIN THE H850-500 LAYER. YET THE WIND
SHEAR IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH VALUES
20KTS OR LESS. PER SPC COORDINATION...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT
AND PER THOSE SOUNDINGS...COULD NOT RULE OUT 1-2 EVENTS ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE COMBINATION OF INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS AND PRECIP
LOADING CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN WEDNESDAYS HIGHS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH MAINLY MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

TONIGHT RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM NORTHEAST CANADA. TRENDS IN THE MODEL
SUITE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ENE TRAJECTORIES ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO THE GREENS...BERKS AND NW CT AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT SOUTH OF I90 COULD KEEP CLOUDS A
BIT LONGER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER. MOS VALUES OVERNIGHT
ARE VERY CLOSE AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED. FOG POTENTIAL
IS NOT THAT CLEAR AT THIS TIME AS WE WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...STILL SOME QUESTION JUST HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL
BE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.
HOWEVER...THEY BOTH AGREE THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET
HUNG UP ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR WHERE WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND AS H925-850 COOL OFF
FROM THE ENE INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THIS SHOULD YIELD EVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH NEAR 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW
U40S IN THE SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY
FORM...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG.

SATURDAY...A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. H925-850 TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID
AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BIG BUBBLE...LITTLE TROUBLE AS THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LONGER NOCTURNAL PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND EVALUATED IN
LATER FORECASTS. LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 50S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH SOME TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MON AM...THEN MAINLY LOWER/MID 60S FOR MON
NT/TUE AM ALTHOUGH SOME 50S COULD STILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND IN THE BERKSHIRES. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT BEFORE
REACHING OUR REGION...AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHEARS WELL N
AND W OF THE REGION. THIS ENERGY SHOULD FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE A BIT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHC POPS
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FOR LATE TUE...AND SLIGHT CHC TUE NT INTO WED
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S...EXCEPT FOR 50S ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THROUGH 13Z/THU...PATCHY GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT
MAY REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRIES TO MIX INTO
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TOWARD 10Z-13Z/THU. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INDICATED PERIODS OF IFR FOR KGFL/KPSF...WHILE VFR/MVFR FOR KALB
AND KPOU.

AFTER 13Z/THU...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z-22Z/THU.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND EAST OF THE
TAF SITES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE IMPACTING THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR
WITHIN THE CORES OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z/FRI...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/FRI.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 13Z/THU...THEN TREND
INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE N TO NE BETWEEN 01Z-04Z/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH COULD BRIEFLY GUST INTO THE
10-20 KT RANGE...ESP AT KGFL DUE TO CHANNELING DOWN THE UPPER
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND MORE EXPECTED IN THE
FORECAST...CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ELEVATED AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD
TOUCH OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE REGION TONIGHT BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY
LINGER SOUTH OF I90 INTO FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...KL/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK YIELDING MAINLY DRY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CI DEBRIS FROM EARLY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPILL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPITE OF THE
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS ALREADY REPORTING
MODEST FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN CT/MA.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...STALLING AS IT MEETS THE MORE ROBUST INCOMING SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM THE S. BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL SHIFT SE...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VT/NH THANKS TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE BETTER REALIZING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THEN IT WILL BE
A RACE AGAINST TIME AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS S AND INTERACTS WITH
THE VARIOUS FRONTS /COLD AND SEA BREEZE/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO
MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THE I-495 CORRIDOR
AND INTO RI...WHERE THE FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO MEET. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG...BUT WITH THE
CORE OF BEST LAPSE RATES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING...IT MAY STRUGGLE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CAPPING BOTH
T-STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SCT STILL REMAINS THE BEST
FORECAST. PWATS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT GIVEN THE
SCT NATURE IT/S POSSIBLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN DRY.

SHOULD ANY STORMS HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...THE UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK. THEREFORE...STILL NOT MENTIONING ANY ENHANCED
WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE AS HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL
WOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED EVENT.

HEAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY INLAND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
FURTHER E. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 90S W...TO LOW 80S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...LINGERING RISK OF ISOLATED -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT SO WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR MA/CT ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF RAIN FALLS. ERN MA/RI WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AM HOURS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...SO MINS
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN SPITE OF COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING OVER FROM
THE NE.

FRI...
BREEZY AND COOLER THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND H85
TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND +12C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER WILL LEAD TO STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT
BL DEPTH. THEREFORE...UNLIKELY MIXING TO H85...LIMITING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOW 70S WILL BE NEAR
SHORE...THANKS TO SST/S NEAR THESE VALUES. THE NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ITS NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET BEGINS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THUS OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY AT OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT THE EURO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +18C ACROSS SNE BY MON AND
TUE! GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AT
+16C/+17C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. REGARDING PRECIP...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POTENTIAL WILDCARD NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
CONUS MAY BE LINKED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMES ABSORBED
AND POTENTIALLY ENERGIZES THE NORTHERN STREAM.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...

ANOMALOUS 1025 MB ANTICYCLONE/SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO SNE. THIS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO YIELD COOL TEMPS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE U40S! THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE /H5 HEIGHTS OF 591 DM AND
1024 MB SFC HI/ OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE U70S AND L80S SAT AFTN AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUN AND
MON HOWEVER HUMIDITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH DEW PTS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE U50S AND L60S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES TUE BUT MAY
JUST WASHOUT AS RIDGE WINS OUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAY ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
AREAS OF FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND
11Z THIS MORNING...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TODAY...
MAINLY VFR. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY SCT -SHRA/TSTMS
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND FRI...
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT BURN OFF.
BREEZY EARLY FRI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE FOR THE MID
MORNING PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT BACKDOORS FROM
THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER PREVAILS...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE TODAY MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED ROUGH
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...
N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 KT AT TIMES EARLY AM INTO ABOUT MID DAY.
SEAS INCREASE AS WELL...REACHING NEAR 5 FT FIRST ON THE E
WATERS...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRI...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIGHT/VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 030752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK YIELDING MAINLY DRY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CI DEBRIS FROM EARLY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPILL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPITE OF THE
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS ALREADY REPORTING
MODEST FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN CT/MA.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...STALLING AS IT MEETS THE MORE ROBUST INCOMING SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM THE S. BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL SHIFT SE...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VT/NH THANKS TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE BETTER REALIZING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THEN IT WILL BE
A RACE AGAINST TIME AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS S AND INTERACTS WITH
THE VARIOUS FRONTS /COLD AND SEA BREEZE/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO
MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THE I-495 CORRIDOR
AND INTO RI...WHERE THE FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO MEET. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG...BUT WITH THE
CORE OF BEST LAPSE RATES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING...IT MAY STRUGGLE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CAPPING BOTH
T-STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SCT STILL REMAINS THE BEST
FORECAST. PWATS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT GIVEN THE
SCT NATURE IT/S POSSIBLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN DRY.

SHOULD ANY STORMS HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...THE UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK. THEREFORE...STILL NOT MENTIONING ANY ENHANCED
WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE AS HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL
WOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED EVENT.

HEAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY INLAND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
FURTHER E. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 90S W...TO LOW 80S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...LINGERING RISK OF ISOLATED -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT SO WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR MA/CT ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF RAIN FALLS. ERN MA/RI WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AM HOURS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...SO MINS
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN SPITE OF COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING OVER FROM
THE NE.

FRI...
BREEZY AND COOLER THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND H85
TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND +12C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER WILL LEAD TO STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT
BL DEPTH. THEREFORE...UNLIKELY MIXING TO H85...LIMITING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOW 70S WILL BE NEAR
SHORE...THANKS TO SST/S NEAR THESE VALUES. THE NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ITS NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET BEGINS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THUS OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY AT OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT THE EURO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +18C ACROSS SNE BY MON AND
TUE! GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AT
+16C/+17C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. REGARDING PRECIP...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POTENTIAL WILDCARD NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
CONUS MAY BE LINKED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMES ABSORBED
AND POTENTIALLY ENERGIZES THE NORTHERN STREAM.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...

ANOMALOUS 1025 MB ANTICYCLONE/SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO SNE. THIS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO YIELD COOL TEMPS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE U40S! THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE /H5 HEIGHTS OF 591 DM AND
1024 MB SFC HI/ OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE U70S AND L80S SAT AFTN AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUN AND
MON HOWEVER HUMIDITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH DEW PTS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE U50S AND L60S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES TUE BUT MAY
JUST WASHOUT AS RIDGE WINS OUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAY ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
AREAS OF FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND
11Z THIS MORNING...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TODAY...
MAINLY VFR. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY SCT -SHRA/TSTMS
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND FRI...
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT BURN OFF.
BREEZY EARLY FRI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE FOR THE MID
MORNING PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT BACKDOORS FROM
THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER PREVAILS...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE TODAY MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED ROUGH
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...
N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 KT AT TIMES EARLY AM INTO ABOUT MID DAY.
SEAS INCREASE AS WELL...REACHING NEAR 5 FT FIRST ON THE E
WATERS...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRI...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIGHT/VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 030752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK YIELDING MAINLY DRY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CI DEBRIS FROM EARLY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPILL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPITE OF THE
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS ALREADY REPORTING
MODEST FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN CT/MA.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...STALLING AS IT MEETS THE MORE ROBUST INCOMING SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM THE S. BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL SHIFT SE...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VT/NH THANKS TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE BETTER REALIZING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THEN IT WILL BE
A RACE AGAINST TIME AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS S AND INTERACTS WITH
THE VARIOUS FRONTS /COLD AND SEA BREEZE/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO
MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THE I-495 CORRIDOR
AND INTO RI...WHERE THE FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO MEET. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG...BUT WITH THE
CORE OF BEST LAPSE RATES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING...IT MAY STRUGGLE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CAPPING BOTH
T-STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SCT STILL REMAINS THE BEST
FORECAST. PWATS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT GIVEN THE
SCT NATURE IT/S POSSIBLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN DRY.

SHOULD ANY STORMS HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...THE UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK. THEREFORE...STILL NOT MENTIONING ANY ENHANCED
WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE AS HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL
WOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED EVENT.

HEAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY INLAND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
FURTHER E. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 90S W...TO LOW 80S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...LINGERING RISK OF ISOLATED -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT SO WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR MA/CT ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF RAIN FALLS. ERN MA/RI WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AM HOURS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...SO MINS
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN SPITE OF COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING OVER FROM
THE NE.

FRI...
BREEZY AND COOLER THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND H85
TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND +12C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER WILL LEAD TO STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT
BL DEPTH. THEREFORE...UNLIKELY MIXING TO H85...LIMITING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOW 70S WILL BE NEAR
SHORE...THANKS TO SST/S NEAR THESE VALUES. THE NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ITS NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET BEGINS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THUS OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY AT OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT THE EURO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +18C ACROSS SNE BY MON AND
TUE! GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AT
+16C/+17C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. REGARDING PRECIP...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POTENTIAL WILDCARD NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
CONUS MAY BE LINKED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMES ABSORBED
AND POTENTIALLY ENERGIZES THE NORTHERN STREAM.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...

ANOMALOUS 1025 MB ANTICYCLONE/SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO SNE. THIS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO YIELD COOL TEMPS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE U40S! THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE /H5 HEIGHTS OF 591 DM AND
1024 MB SFC HI/ OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE U70S AND L80S SAT AFTN AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUN AND
MON HOWEVER HUMIDITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH DEW PTS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE U50S AND L60S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES TUE BUT MAY
JUST WASHOUT AS RIDGE WINS OUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAY ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
AREAS OF FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND
11Z THIS MORNING...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TODAY...
MAINLY VFR. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY SCT -SHRA/TSTMS
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND FRI...
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT BURN OFF.
BREEZY EARLY FRI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE FOR THE MID
MORNING PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT BACKDOORS FROM
THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER PREVAILS...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE TODAY MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED ROUGH
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...
N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 KT AT TIMES EARLY AM INTO ABOUT MID DAY.
SEAS INCREASE AS WELL...REACHING NEAR 5 FT FIRST ON THE E
WATERS...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRI...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIGHT/VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 030752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK YIELDING MAINLY DRY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CI DEBRIS FROM EARLY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPILL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPITE OF THE
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS ALREADY REPORTING
MODEST FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN CT/MA.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...STALLING AS IT MEETS THE MORE ROBUST INCOMING SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM THE S. BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL SHIFT SE...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VT/NH THANKS TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE BETTER REALIZING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THEN IT WILL BE
A RACE AGAINST TIME AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS S AND INTERACTS WITH
THE VARIOUS FRONTS /COLD AND SEA BREEZE/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO
MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THE I-495 CORRIDOR
AND INTO RI...WHERE THE FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO MEET. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG...BUT WITH THE
CORE OF BEST LAPSE RATES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING...IT MAY STRUGGLE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CAPPING BOTH
T-STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SCT STILL REMAINS THE BEST
FORECAST. PWATS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT GIVEN THE
SCT NATURE IT/S POSSIBLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN DRY.

SHOULD ANY STORMS HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...THE UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK. THEREFORE...STILL NOT MENTIONING ANY ENHANCED
WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE AS HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL
WOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED EVENT.

HEAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY INLAND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
FURTHER E. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 90S W...TO LOW 80S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...LINGERING RISK OF ISOLATED -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT SO WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR MA/CT ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF RAIN FALLS. ERN MA/RI WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AM HOURS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...SO MINS
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN SPITE OF COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING OVER FROM
THE NE.

FRI...
BREEZY AND COOLER THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND H85
TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND +12C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER WILL LEAD TO STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT
BL DEPTH. THEREFORE...UNLIKELY MIXING TO H85...LIMITING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOW 70S WILL BE NEAR
SHORE...THANKS TO SST/S NEAR THESE VALUES. THE NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ITS NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET BEGINS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THUS OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY AT OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT THE EURO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +18C ACROSS SNE BY MON AND
TUE! GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AT
+16C/+17C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. REGARDING PRECIP...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POTENTIAL WILDCARD NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
CONUS MAY BE LINKED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMES ABSORBED
AND POTENTIALLY ENERGIZES THE NORTHERN STREAM.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...

ANOMALOUS 1025 MB ANTICYCLONE/SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO SNE. THIS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO YIELD COOL TEMPS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE U40S! THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE /H5 HEIGHTS OF 591 DM AND
1024 MB SFC HI/ OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE U70S AND L80S SAT AFTN AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUN AND
MON HOWEVER HUMIDITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH DEW PTS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE U50S AND L60S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES TUE BUT MAY
JUST WASHOUT AS RIDGE WINS OUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAY ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
AREAS OF FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND
11Z THIS MORNING...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TODAY...
MAINLY VFR. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY SCT -SHRA/TSTMS
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND FRI...
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT BURN OFF.
BREEZY EARLY FRI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE FOR THE MID
MORNING PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT BACKDOORS FROM
THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER PREVAILS...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE TODAY MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED ROUGH
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...
N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 KT AT TIMES EARLY AM INTO ABOUT MID DAY.
SEAS INCREASE AS WELL...REACHING NEAR 5 FT FIRST ON THE E
WATERS...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRI...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIGHT/VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 030752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK YIELDING MAINLY DRY BUT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LEFTOVER UPPER LVL CI DEBRIS FROM EARLY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SPILL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THESE CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE RISK FOR EARLY MORNING FOG IN SPITE OF THE
DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS ALREADY REPORTING
MODEST FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN CT/MA.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...STALLING AS IT MEETS THE MORE ROBUST INCOMING SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM THE S. BULK OF THE INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED...WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL SHIFT SE...THEN OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
START ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VT/NH THANKS TO ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE BETTER REALIZING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THEN IT WILL BE
A RACE AGAINST TIME AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS S AND INTERACTS WITH
THE VARIOUS FRONTS /COLD AND SEA BREEZE/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO
MAINTAIN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND THE I-495 CORRIDOR
AND INTO RI...WHERE THE FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO MEET. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG...BUT WITH THE
CORE OF BEST LAPSE RATES SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING...IT MAY STRUGGLE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CAPPING BOTH
T-STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AT SCT STILL REMAINS THE BEST
FORECAST. PWATS NEAR 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT GIVEN THE
SCT NATURE IT/S POSSIBLE SEVERAL LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN DRY.

SHOULD ANY STORMS HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING...THE UPPER LVL
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS AS SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK. THEREFORE...STILL NOT MENTIONING ANY ENHANCED
WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE AS HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL
WOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED EVENT.

HEAT CONTINUES ESPECIALLY INLAND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
FURTHER E. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 90S W...TO LOW 80S NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...LINGERING RISK OF ISOLATED -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS LATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT SO WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S SOME FOG STILL POSSIBLE
OVER INTERIOR MA/CT ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF RAIN FALLS. ERN MA/RI WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AM HOURS. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...SO MINS
REMAIN IN THE 60S IN SPITE OF COOLER AIRMASS SPILLING OVER FROM
THE NE.

FRI...
BREEZY AND COOLER THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND H85
TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND +12C BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER WILL LEAD TO STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT
BL DEPTH. THEREFORE...UNLIKELY MIXING TO H85...LIMITING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOW 70S WILL BE NEAR
SHORE...THANKS TO SST/S NEAR THESE VALUES. THE NE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. ITS NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET BEGINS TO DESCEND SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THUS OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY AT OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IN FACT THE EURO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +18C ACROSS SNE BY MON AND
TUE! GEFS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY LESS AT
+16C/+17C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 90 AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. REGARDING PRECIP...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. POTENTIAL WILDCARD NEXT
WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
CONUS MAY BE LINKED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BECOMES ABSORBED
AND POTENTIALLY ENERGIZES THE NORTHERN STREAM.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY...

ANOMALOUS 1025 MB ANTICYCLONE/SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS INTO SNE. THIS
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TO YIELD COOL TEMPS FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP INTO THE U40S! THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE /H5 HEIGHTS OF 591 DM AND
1024 MB SFC HI/ OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE U70S AND L80S SAT AFTN AFTER A COOL START TO THE
DAY. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA SO DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDES JUST OFF THE
SOUTH COAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUN AND
MON HOWEVER HUMIDITY LOOKS TO REMAIN TOLERABLE WITH DEW PTS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE U50S AND L60S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES TUE BUT MAY
JUST WASHOUT AS RIDGE WINS OUT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT MAY ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THUS WARM AND HUMID WEATHER LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO TUE AND POSSIBLY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
AREAS OF FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND
11Z THIS MORNING...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TODAY...
MAINLY VFR. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY SCT -SHRA/TSTMS
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND FRI...
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT BURN OFF.
BREEZY EARLY FRI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE FOR THE MID
MORNING PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E OF THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT BACKDOORS FROM
THE GULF OF MAINE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER PREVAILS...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE TODAY MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED ROUGH
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...
N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25-30 KT AT TIMES EARLY AM INTO ABOUT MID DAY.
SEAS INCREASE AS WELL...REACHING NEAR 5 FT FIRST ON THE E
WATERS...THEN THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRI...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS FRI
NIGHT DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIGHT/VARIABLE SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 030537
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
137 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AHEAD OF WHICH
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT OVER CANADA STALLS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO SPEED UP THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP
THIS EVENING AS CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH DWPTS HOLDING NEAR THERE LATE
AFTERNOON OBSERVED VALUES...SUSPECT AFTER ABOUT 1-2AM WILL SEE
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOP IN TYPICALLY PRONE VALLEYS/GRASSY
SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGH PRESSURE MAKES FOR ANOTHER EVENING OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN TYPICALLY PRONE LOW-LYING LOCATIONS.
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL AID IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. LIKELY TO SEE A
COMBINATION OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF-MILE OR LESS AND LOW
CLOUDS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...

MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING IMPULSE ENERGY SWEEP SE ACROSS THE
NE CONUS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF REFRESHING COOL-DRY AIRMASS BUILDING
REARWARD WILL BECOME THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD.

EVALUATING THE ENVIRONMENT: DECENT LOW-MID LEVEL THETAE CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT YIELDING A MOISTENING PROFILE OF PWATS 1.50-
1.75 INCHES. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ALOFT...INSTABILITY VALUES BUILD
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH VALUES OF AROUND 1-2K J/KG AS BOUNDARY-
LAYER LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. PER BUFKIT...CAPE PROFILES DEEP AND NOT
TOO THIN. INVERTED-V PROFILES AT THE SURFACE. YET SOME THINGS WORTH
NOTING IS THE RATHER WEAK SHEAR. BETTER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL VENTING
RESIDES MORE TOWARDS THE NE. PREDOMINANT FLOW...EVEN AT H925-7...IS
FORECAST OUT OF THE N AND THERE IS A LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE ALSO BEING WEAK AROUND 10-15 MPH BETWEEN 0-6 KM.

OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE ALL THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE THERE BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER EVENT /ECHOED BY CIPS ANALOGS/ AND NOR DOES
IT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD. CERTAINLY MORE FOCUS ALONG THE N-FACING
SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN AND AS THE COLD FRONT COLLIDES WITH EXPECTED
ONSHORE SEA-BREEZES DURING THE DAY. FOCUS ON THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E/SE-INTERIOR WITH THE COLD FRONT / SEA-BREEZE
COLLISION.

GOING BACK TO CIPS ANALOGS AND THE ENVIRONMENT EVALUATION...SHOULD
ANY STORMS BECOME STRONG CAN NOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL AND A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT THOUGH THINK THIS WILL BE ISOLATED. THE MAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DECENT MOIST PROFILE AND FORECAST
SLOW-MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. COULD BE DEALING WITH POOR-DRAINAGE /
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEATHER IMPACT EXPECTED.
A HOT AND HUMID DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF OUR AREA TOWARDS THE S/W AS A CANADIAN
HIGH AND COOL-DRY AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION. COULD BE CONTENDING
WITH CONTINUED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOWARDS MIDNIGHT BUT
DIMINISHING AS THE MAIN MID-LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES OFFSHORE AWAY FROM
BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND WE FIND OURSELVES BENEATH A DRY-SUBSIDING
AIRMASS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CRASH. LOWS DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE LOW-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL USA AND TROUGHS OVER THE MARITIMES AND PACIFIC
COAST. THIS FLATTENS TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
USA BY MIDWEEK. CONTOUR HEIGHTS RUN NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SHORTER WAVELENGTHS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST USA
WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE RIDGE FLATTENS A LITTLE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

MODEL MASS AND THERMAL FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...
EVEN WEDNESDAY ISN/T TOO BAD. USING A BLEND OF THESE WOULD BE REASONABLE.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS PRODUCES AN APPRECIABLE N-S PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH BRING INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE GRADIENT DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
EXPECT A BREEZY MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AT OR BELOW 800 MB SO
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD A DRYING AIRMASS...SO
EXPECT ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY.

MIXING REACHES TO 900 MB...AND TEMPS AT 900 MB WILL BE AT 13-15C.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO 8-10C AT 850 MB...SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.
COULD BE A FEW VALUES AT 80 IN WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE CT VALLEY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BUFFER VALUES IN EASTERN MASS.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND SHIFT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE AIR WILL BE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERHAPS SOME INCREASING CIRRUS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIXING CONTINUES TO 900 MB SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
AND TO 850 MB MONDAY. TEMPS AT THESE LEVELS...CONVERTED TO 850 MB
VALUES...TREND FROM 10-12C SAT TO 13-15C SUNDAY TO 17-18C MONDAY.
SO EXPECT VALUES U70-L80S SATURDAY...80S SUNDAY...AROUND 90
MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... A COLD FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES THE
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH THE FRONT AND MOST OF THAT IS BELOW 750
MB. SO LOOK FOR A FEW CLOUDS AND MAYBE A STRAY SHOWER LATE TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WE WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
AREAS OF FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND
11Z THIS MORNING...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TODAY...
MAINLY VFR. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY SCT -SHRA/TSTMS
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND FRI...
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT BURN OFF.
BREEZY EARLY FRI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE FOR THE MID
MORNING PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY
GIVES WAY TO LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT BEHIND WHICH NE-WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. IT MAY BE WORTH
CONSIDERING BY THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WAVES COULD
REACH 5-FEET ESPECIALLY OVER THE E-WATERS. MORE IN THE OUTLOOK
DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SUB-SEVERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM BUT THE BETTER CHANCE IS ACROSS THE E/SE-INTERIOR
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY... INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
FROM CANADA. MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT WINDS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY DRIVE SEA HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
WIND AND SEAS DIMINISH TO LIGHT SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030537
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
137 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AHEAD OF WHICH
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT OVER CANADA STALLS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO SPEED UP THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP
THIS EVENING AS CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH DWPTS HOLDING NEAR THERE LATE
AFTERNOON OBSERVED VALUES...SUSPECT AFTER ABOUT 1-2AM WILL SEE
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOP IN TYPICALLY PRONE VALLEYS/GRASSY
SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGH PRESSURE MAKES FOR ANOTHER EVENING OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN TYPICALLY PRONE LOW-LYING LOCATIONS.
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL AID IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. LIKELY TO SEE A
COMBINATION OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF-MILE OR LESS AND LOW
CLOUDS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...

MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING IMPULSE ENERGY SWEEP SE ACROSS THE
NE CONUS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF REFRESHING COOL-DRY AIRMASS BUILDING
REARWARD WILL BECOME THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD.

EVALUATING THE ENVIRONMENT: DECENT LOW-MID LEVEL THETAE CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT YIELDING A MOISTENING PROFILE OF PWATS 1.50-
1.75 INCHES. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ALOFT...INSTABILITY VALUES BUILD
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH VALUES OF AROUND 1-2K J/KG AS BOUNDARY-
LAYER LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. PER BUFKIT...CAPE PROFILES DEEP AND NOT
TOO THIN. INVERTED-V PROFILES AT THE SURFACE. YET SOME THINGS WORTH
NOTING IS THE RATHER WEAK SHEAR. BETTER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL VENTING
RESIDES MORE TOWARDS THE NE. PREDOMINANT FLOW...EVEN AT H925-7...IS
FORECAST OUT OF THE N AND THERE IS A LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE ALSO BEING WEAK AROUND 10-15 MPH BETWEEN 0-6 KM.

OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE ALL THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE THERE BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER EVENT /ECHOED BY CIPS ANALOGS/ AND NOR DOES
IT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD. CERTAINLY MORE FOCUS ALONG THE N-FACING
SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN AND AS THE COLD FRONT COLLIDES WITH EXPECTED
ONSHORE SEA-BREEZES DURING THE DAY. FOCUS ON THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E/SE-INTERIOR WITH THE COLD FRONT / SEA-BREEZE
COLLISION.

GOING BACK TO CIPS ANALOGS AND THE ENVIRONMENT EVALUATION...SHOULD
ANY STORMS BECOME STRONG CAN NOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL AND A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT THOUGH THINK THIS WILL BE ISOLATED. THE MAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DECENT MOIST PROFILE AND FORECAST
SLOW-MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. COULD BE DEALING WITH POOR-DRAINAGE /
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEATHER IMPACT EXPECTED.
A HOT AND HUMID DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF OUR AREA TOWARDS THE S/W AS A CANADIAN
HIGH AND COOL-DRY AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION. COULD BE CONTENDING
WITH CONTINUED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOWARDS MIDNIGHT BUT
DIMINISHING AS THE MAIN MID-LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES OFFSHORE AWAY FROM
BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND WE FIND OURSELVES BENEATH A DRY-SUBSIDING
AIRMASS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CRASH. LOWS DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE LOW-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL USA AND TROUGHS OVER THE MARITIMES AND PACIFIC
COAST. THIS FLATTENS TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
USA BY MIDWEEK. CONTOUR HEIGHTS RUN NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SHORTER WAVELENGTHS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST USA
WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE RIDGE FLATTENS A LITTLE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

MODEL MASS AND THERMAL FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...
EVEN WEDNESDAY ISN/T TOO BAD. USING A BLEND OF THESE WOULD BE REASONABLE.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS PRODUCES AN APPRECIABLE N-S PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH BRING INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE GRADIENT DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
EXPECT A BREEZY MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AT OR BELOW 800 MB SO
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD A DRYING AIRMASS...SO
EXPECT ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY.

MIXING REACHES TO 900 MB...AND TEMPS AT 900 MB WILL BE AT 13-15C.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO 8-10C AT 850 MB...SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.
COULD BE A FEW VALUES AT 80 IN WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE CT VALLEY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BUFFER VALUES IN EASTERN MASS.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND SHIFT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE AIR WILL BE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERHAPS SOME INCREASING CIRRUS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIXING CONTINUES TO 900 MB SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
AND TO 850 MB MONDAY. TEMPS AT THESE LEVELS...CONVERTED TO 850 MB
VALUES...TREND FROM 10-12C SAT TO 13-15C SUNDAY TO 17-18C MONDAY.
SO EXPECT VALUES U70-L80S SATURDAY...80S SUNDAY...AROUND 90
MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... A COLD FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES THE
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH THE FRONT AND MOST OF THAT IS BELOW 750
MB. SO LOOK FOR A FEW CLOUDS AND MAYBE A STRAY SHOWER LATE TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WE WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
AREAS OF FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND
11Z THIS MORNING...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TODAY...
MAINLY VFR. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY SCT -SHRA/TSTMS
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND FRI...
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT BURN OFF.
BREEZY EARLY FRI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE FOR THE MID
MORNING PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY
GIVES WAY TO LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT BEHIND WHICH NE-WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. IT MAY BE WORTH
CONSIDERING BY THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WAVES COULD
REACH 5-FEET ESPECIALLY OVER THE E-WATERS. MORE IN THE OUTLOOK
DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SUB-SEVERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM BUT THE BETTER CHANCE IS ACROSS THE E/SE-INTERIOR
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY... INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
FROM CANADA. MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT WINDS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY DRIVE SEA HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
WIND AND SEAS DIMINISH TO LIGHT SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030537
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
137 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AHEAD OF WHICH
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT OVER CANADA STALLS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO SPEED UP THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP
THIS EVENING AS CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH DWPTS HOLDING NEAR THERE LATE
AFTERNOON OBSERVED VALUES...SUSPECT AFTER ABOUT 1-2AM WILL SEE
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOP IN TYPICALLY PRONE VALLEYS/GRASSY
SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGH PRESSURE MAKES FOR ANOTHER EVENING OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN TYPICALLY PRONE LOW-LYING LOCATIONS.
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL AID IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. LIKELY TO SEE A
COMBINATION OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF-MILE OR LESS AND LOW
CLOUDS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...

MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING IMPULSE ENERGY SWEEP SE ACROSS THE
NE CONUS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF REFRESHING COOL-DRY AIRMASS BUILDING
REARWARD WILL BECOME THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD.

EVALUATING THE ENVIRONMENT: DECENT LOW-MID LEVEL THETAE CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT YIELDING A MOISTENING PROFILE OF PWATS 1.50-
1.75 INCHES. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ALOFT...INSTABILITY VALUES BUILD
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH VALUES OF AROUND 1-2K J/KG AS BOUNDARY-
LAYER LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. PER BUFKIT...CAPE PROFILES DEEP AND NOT
TOO THIN. INVERTED-V PROFILES AT THE SURFACE. YET SOME THINGS WORTH
NOTING IS THE RATHER WEAK SHEAR. BETTER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL VENTING
RESIDES MORE TOWARDS THE NE. PREDOMINANT FLOW...EVEN AT H925-7...IS
FORECAST OUT OF THE N AND THERE IS A LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE ALSO BEING WEAK AROUND 10-15 MPH BETWEEN 0-6 KM.

OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE ALL THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE THERE BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER EVENT /ECHOED BY CIPS ANALOGS/ AND NOR DOES
IT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD. CERTAINLY MORE FOCUS ALONG THE N-FACING
SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN AND AS THE COLD FRONT COLLIDES WITH EXPECTED
ONSHORE SEA-BREEZES DURING THE DAY. FOCUS ON THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E/SE-INTERIOR WITH THE COLD FRONT / SEA-BREEZE
COLLISION.

GOING BACK TO CIPS ANALOGS AND THE ENVIRONMENT EVALUATION...SHOULD
ANY STORMS BECOME STRONG CAN NOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL AND A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT THOUGH THINK THIS WILL BE ISOLATED. THE MAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DECENT MOIST PROFILE AND FORECAST
SLOW-MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. COULD BE DEALING WITH POOR-DRAINAGE /
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEATHER IMPACT EXPECTED.
A HOT AND HUMID DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF OUR AREA TOWARDS THE S/W AS A CANADIAN
HIGH AND COOL-DRY AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION. COULD BE CONTENDING
WITH CONTINUED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOWARDS MIDNIGHT BUT
DIMINISHING AS THE MAIN MID-LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES OFFSHORE AWAY FROM
BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND WE FIND OURSELVES BENEATH A DRY-SUBSIDING
AIRMASS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CRASH. LOWS DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE LOW-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL USA AND TROUGHS OVER THE MARITIMES AND PACIFIC
COAST. THIS FLATTENS TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
USA BY MIDWEEK. CONTOUR HEIGHTS RUN NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SHORTER WAVELENGTHS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST USA
WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE RIDGE FLATTENS A LITTLE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

MODEL MASS AND THERMAL FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...
EVEN WEDNESDAY ISN/T TOO BAD. USING A BLEND OF THESE WOULD BE REASONABLE.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS PRODUCES AN APPRECIABLE N-S PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH BRING INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE GRADIENT DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
EXPECT A BREEZY MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AT OR BELOW 800 MB SO
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD A DRYING AIRMASS...SO
EXPECT ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY.

MIXING REACHES TO 900 MB...AND TEMPS AT 900 MB WILL BE AT 13-15C.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO 8-10C AT 850 MB...SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.
COULD BE A FEW VALUES AT 80 IN WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE CT VALLEY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BUFFER VALUES IN EASTERN MASS.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND SHIFT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE AIR WILL BE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERHAPS SOME INCREASING CIRRUS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIXING CONTINUES TO 900 MB SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
AND TO 850 MB MONDAY. TEMPS AT THESE LEVELS...CONVERTED TO 850 MB
VALUES...TREND FROM 10-12C SAT TO 13-15C SUNDAY TO 17-18C MONDAY.
SO EXPECT VALUES U70-L80S SATURDAY...80S SUNDAY...AROUND 90
MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... A COLD FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES THE
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH THE FRONT AND MOST OF THAT IS BELOW 750
MB. SO LOOK FOR A FEW CLOUDS AND MAYBE A STRAY SHOWER LATE TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WE WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
AREAS OF FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND
11Z THIS MORNING...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TODAY...
MAINLY VFR. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY SCT -SHRA/TSTMS
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND FRI...
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT BURN OFF.
BREEZY EARLY FRI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE FOR THE MID
MORNING PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY
GIVES WAY TO LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT BEHIND WHICH NE-WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. IT MAY BE WORTH
CONSIDERING BY THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WAVES COULD
REACH 5-FEET ESPECIALLY OVER THE E-WATERS. MORE IN THE OUTLOOK
DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SUB-SEVERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM BUT THE BETTER CHANCE IS ACROSS THE E/SE-INTERIOR
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY... INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
FROM CANADA. MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT WINDS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY DRIVE SEA HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
WIND AND SEAS DIMINISH TO LIGHT SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030537
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
137 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AHEAD OF WHICH
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT OVER CANADA STALLS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO SPEED UP THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP
THIS EVENING AS CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH DWPTS HOLDING NEAR THERE LATE
AFTERNOON OBSERVED VALUES...SUSPECT AFTER ABOUT 1-2AM WILL SEE
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOP IN TYPICALLY PRONE VALLEYS/GRASSY
SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGH PRESSURE MAKES FOR ANOTHER EVENING OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN TYPICALLY PRONE LOW-LYING LOCATIONS.
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL AID IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. LIKELY TO SEE A
COMBINATION OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF-MILE OR LESS AND LOW
CLOUDS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...

MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING IMPULSE ENERGY SWEEP SE ACROSS THE
NE CONUS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF REFRESHING COOL-DRY AIRMASS BUILDING
REARWARD WILL BECOME THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD.

EVALUATING THE ENVIRONMENT: DECENT LOW-MID LEVEL THETAE CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT YIELDING A MOISTENING PROFILE OF PWATS 1.50-
1.75 INCHES. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ALOFT...INSTABILITY VALUES BUILD
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH VALUES OF AROUND 1-2K J/KG AS BOUNDARY-
LAYER LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. PER BUFKIT...CAPE PROFILES DEEP AND NOT
TOO THIN. INVERTED-V PROFILES AT THE SURFACE. YET SOME THINGS WORTH
NOTING IS THE RATHER WEAK SHEAR. BETTER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL VENTING
RESIDES MORE TOWARDS THE NE. PREDOMINANT FLOW...EVEN AT H925-7...IS
FORECAST OUT OF THE N AND THERE IS A LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE ALSO BEING WEAK AROUND 10-15 MPH BETWEEN 0-6 KM.

OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE ALL THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE THERE BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER EVENT /ECHOED BY CIPS ANALOGS/ AND NOR DOES
IT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD. CERTAINLY MORE FOCUS ALONG THE N-FACING
SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN AND AS THE COLD FRONT COLLIDES WITH EXPECTED
ONSHORE SEA-BREEZES DURING THE DAY. FOCUS ON THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E/SE-INTERIOR WITH THE COLD FRONT / SEA-BREEZE
COLLISION.

GOING BACK TO CIPS ANALOGS AND THE ENVIRONMENT EVALUATION...SHOULD
ANY STORMS BECOME STRONG CAN NOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL AND A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT THOUGH THINK THIS WILL BE ISOLATED. THE MAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DECENT MOIST PROFILE AND FORECAST
SLOW-MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. COULD BE DEALING WITH POOR-DRAINAGE /
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEATHER IMPACT EXPECTED.
A HOT AND HUMID DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF OUR AREA TOWARDS THE S/W AS A CANADIAN
HIGH AND COOL-DRY AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION. COULD BE CONTENDING
WITH CONTINUED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOWARDS MIDNIGHT BUT
DIMINISHING AS THE MAIN MID-LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES OFFSHORE AWAY FROM
BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND WE FIND OURSELVES BENEATH A DRY-SUBSIDING
AIRMASS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CRASH. LOWS DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE LOW-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL USA AND TROUGHS OVER THE MARITIMES AND PACIFIC
COAST. THIS FLATTENS TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
USA BY MIDWEEK. CONTOUR HEIGHTS RUN NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SHORTER WAVELENGTHS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST USA
WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE RIDGE FLATTENS A LITTLE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

MODEL MASS AND THERMAL FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...
EVEN WEDNESDAY ISN/T TOO BAD. USING A BLEND OF THESE WOULD BE REASONABLE.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS PRODUCES AN APPRECIABLE N-S PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH BRING INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE GRADIENT DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
EXPECT A BREEZY MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AT OR BELOW 800 MB SO
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD A DRYING AIRMASS...SO
EXPECT ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY.

MIXING REACHES TO 900 MB...AND TEMPS AT 900 MB WILL BE AT 13-15C.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO 8-10C AT 850 MB...SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.
COULD BE A FEW VALUES AT 80 IN WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE CT VALLEY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BUFFER VALUES IN EASTERN MASS.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND SHIFT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE AIR WILL BE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERHAPS SOME INCREASING CIRRUS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIXING CONTINUES TO 900 MB SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
AND TO 850 MB MONDAY. TEMPS AT THESE LEVELS...CONVERTED TO 850 MB
VALUES...TREND FROM 10-12C SAT TO 13-15C SUNDAY TO 17-18C MONDAY.
SO EXPECT VALUES U70-L80S SATURDAY...80S SUNDAY...AROUND 90
MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... A COLD FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES THE
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH THE FRONT AND MOST OF THAT IS BELOW 750
MB. SO LOOK FOR A FEW CLOUDS AND MAYBE A STRAY SHOWER LATE TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WE WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
AREAS OF FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND
11Z THIS MORNING...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TODAY...
MAINLY VFR. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WIDELY SCT -SHRA/TSTMS
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SW TO E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND FRI...
MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY SHOWERS AND LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT BURN OFF.
BREEZY EARLY FRI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE FOR THE MID
MORNING PERIOD.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY
GIVES WAY TO LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT BEHIND WHICH NE-WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. IT MAY BE WORTH
CONSIDERING BY THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WAVES COULD
REACH 5-FEET ESPECIALLY OVER THE E-WATERS. MORE IN THE OUTLOOK
DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SUB-SEVERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM BUT THE BETTER CHANCE IS ACROSS THE E/SE-INTERIOR
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY... INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
FROM CANADA. MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT WINDS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY DRIVE SEA HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
WIND AND SEAS DIMINISH TO LIGHT SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 030524
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...ALL IS QUIET AT THE MOMENT WITH A THIN SCT-BKN
HIGH LEVEL CI/CS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. PER THE IR SATELLITE
TRENDS...CLOUDS TOP TEMPS WERE WARMING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER LOWER ONTARIO/QUEBEC DIMINISHING.
THIS NEGATES THE HIRES FORECAST REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS WHERE WE
SHOULD BE SEEING A SCT LINE OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED BACK THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE DACKS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE HAZE/MIST TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH MILD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

PREV DISC...SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT
FALL OFF AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SRN DACKS...SRN VT...NRN TACONICS...NRN BERKS AND ERN
CATSKILLS WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST OTHER SPOTS. PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AS WELL AS NEAR LAKE GEORGE/KGFL...AND PARTS OF SRN
VT...AND THE BERKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...A SHIFT IN AIR MASSES IS BRIEFLY EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE ALY FCST AREA TOMORROW TO CLOSE
THE WORK WEEK. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...THE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM...INITIALLY
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND THEN EXPANDING TO THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE MID PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS /MORE WIDESPREAD U60S TO L70S/ YIELDING
SBCAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG...WHILE THE GFS HAS SBCAPES IN THE
750-1500 J/KG RANGE OR SO WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND SHIFT DOWN
STREAM. HENCE...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 15-20 KTS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY
FURTHER SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...BUT THE SHEAR IS
WEAK FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS
OR MAINLY PULSE LIKE CONVECTION COULD FORM WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES OR AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
FRONT. THE BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY WEST OF THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY ABOUT
5.5-6C/KM OVER THE ALY AREA.

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. IF ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLD DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP SHEAR...AND WOULD
LIKELY BE IF A STORM SUSTAINED A TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFT FROM THE
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME DCAPES VALUES OF
GREATER THAN A 1000 J/KG FROM THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY W/SW.
OVERALL...AGREE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 GUIDANCE.
H850 TEMPS STILL IN THE 15C TO 17C RANGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID AND U80S IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 90F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. PWATS ARE
IN THE INCH TO INCH AND TWO THIRDS RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

THU NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE
IN THE H925-850 LAYER WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE
EAST. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO 12C TO 14C OVER THE FCST AREA. THE SFC
DEWPTS WILL FALL INTO M40S TO L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE
REGION...WITH LOWER TO M50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND M50S TO L60S SOUTH AND EAST.  THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE
SRN REACHES OF THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WORK WEEK TO SET UP FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. A CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN MAINE. LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH H850 TEMPS LOWERING TO 11 TO 13C OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPT...BUT IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S
TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...AND
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY FORM...AND
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME.

SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH
LABOR DAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
FRONT WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH CHANCE POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THROUGH 13Z/THU...PATCHY GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT
MAY REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRIES TO MIX INTO
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TOWARD 10Z-13Z/THU. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INDICATED PERIODS OF IFR FOR KGFL/KPSF...WHILE VFR/MVFR FOR KALB
AND KPOU.

AFTER 13Z/THU...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z-22Z/THU.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND EAST OF THE
TAF SITES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE IMPACTING THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR
WITHIN THE CORES OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z/FRI...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/FRI.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 13Z/THU...THEN TREND
INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE N TO NE BETWEEN 01Z-04Z/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH COULD BRIEFLY GUST INTO THE
10-20 KT RANGE...ESP AT KGFL DUE TO CHANNELING DOWN THE UPPER
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY...AND THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 030524
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...ALL IS QUIET AT THE MOMENT WITH A THIN SCT-BKN
HIGH LEVEL CI/CS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. PER THE IR SATELLITE
TRENDS...CLOUDS TOP TEMPS WERE WARMING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER LOWER ONTARIO/QUEBEC DIMINISHING.
THIS NEGATES THE HIRES FORECAST REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS WHERE WE
SHOULD BE SEEING A SCT LINE OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED BACK THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE DACKS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE HAZE/MIST TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH MILD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

PREV DISC...SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT
FALL OFF AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SRN DACKS...SRN VT...NRN TACONICS...NRN BERKS AND ERN
CATSKILLS WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST OTHER SPOTS. PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AS WELL AS NEAR LAKE GEORGE/KGFL...AND PARTS OF SRN
VT...AND THE BERKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...A SHIFT IN AIR MASSES IS BRIEFLY EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE ALY FCST AREA TOMORROW TO CLOSE
THE WORK WEEK. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...THE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM...INITIALLY
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND THEN EXPANDING TO THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE MID PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS /MORE WIDESPREAD U60S TO L70S/ YIELDING
SBCAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG...WHILE THE GFS HAS SBCAPES IN THE
750-1500 J/KG RANGE OR SO WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND SHIFT DOWN
STREAM. HENCE...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 15-20 KTS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY
FURTHER SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...BUT THE SHEAR IS
WEAK FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS
OR MAINLY PULSE LIKE CONVECTION COULD FORM WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES OR AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
FRONT. THE BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY WEST OF THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY ABOUT
5.5-6C/KM OVER THE ALY AREA.

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. IF ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLD DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP SHEAR...AND WOULD
LIKELY BE IF A STORM SUSTAINED A TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFT FROM THE
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME DCAPES VALUES OF
GREATER THAN A 1000 J/KG FROM THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY W/SW.
OVERALL...AGREE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 GUIDANCE.
H850 TEMPS STILL IN THE 15C TO 17C RANGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID AND U80S IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 90F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. PWATS ARE
IN THE INCH TO INCH AND TWO THIRDS RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

THU NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE
IN THE H925-850 LAYER WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE
EAST. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO 12C TO 14C OVER THE FCST AREA. THE SFC
DEWPTS WILL FALL INTO M40S TO L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE
REGION...WITH LOWER TO M50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND M50S TO L60S SOUTH AND EAST.  THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE
SRN REACHES OF THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WORK WEEK TO SET UP FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. A CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN MAINE. LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH H850 TEMPS LOWERING TO 11 TO 13C OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPT...BUT IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S
TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...AND
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY FORM...AND
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME.

SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH
LABOR DAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
FRONT WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH CHANCE POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THROUGH 13Z/THU...PATCHY GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT
MAY REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRIES TO MIX INTO
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TOWARD 10Z-13Z/THU. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INDICATED PERIODS OF IFR FOR KGFL/KPSF...WHILE VFR/MVFR FOR KALB
AND KPOU.

AFTER 13Z/THU...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z-22Z/THU.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND EAST OF THE
TAF SITES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE IMPACTING THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR
WITHIN THE CORES OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z/FRI...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z/FRI.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 13Z/THU...THEN TREND
INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE N TO NE BETWEEN 01Z-04Z/FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH COULD BRIEFLY GUST INTO THE
10-20 KT RANGE...ESP AT KGFL DUE TO CHANNELING DOWN THE UPPER
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY...AND THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 030516
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
116 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...ALL IS QUIET AT THE MOMENT WITH A THIN SCT-BKN
HIGH LEVEL CI/CS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. PER THE IR SATELLITE
TRENDS...CLOUDS TOP TEMPS WERE WARMING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER LOWER ONTARIO/QUEBEC DIMINISHING.
THIS NEGATES THE HIRES FORECAST REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS WHERE WE
SHOULD BE SEEING A SCT LINE OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED BACK THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE DACKS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE HAZE/MIST TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH MILD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

PREV DISC...SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT
FALL OFF AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SRN DACKS...SRN VT...NRN TACONICS...NRN BERKS AND ERN
CATSKILLS WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST OTHER SPOTS. PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AS WELL AS NEAR LAKE GEORGE/KGFL...AND PARTS OF SRN
VT...AND THE BERKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...A SHIFT IN AIR MASSES IS BRIEFLY EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE ALY FCST AREA TOMORROW TO CLOSE
THE WORK WEEK. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...THE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM...INITIALLY
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND THEN EXPANDING TO THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE MID PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS /MORE WIDESPREAD U60S TO L70S/ YIELDING
SBCAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG...WHILE THE GFS HAS SBCAPES IN THE
750-1500 J/KG RANGE OR SO WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND SHIFT DOWN
STREAM. HENCE...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 15-20 KTS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY
FURTHER SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...BUT THE SHEAR IS
WEAK FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS
OR MAINLY PULSE LIKE CONVECTION COULD FORM WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES OR AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
FRONT. THE BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY WEST OF THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY ABOUT
5.5-6C/KM OVER THE ALY AREA.

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. IF ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLD DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP SHEAR...AND WOULD
LIKELY BE IF A STORM SUSTAINED A TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFT FROM THE
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME DCAPES VALUES OF
GREATER THAN A 1000 J/KG FROM THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY W/SW.
OVERALL...AGREE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 GUIDANCE.
H850 TEMPS STILL IN THE 15C TO 17C RANGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID AND U80S IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 90F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. PWATS ARE
IN THE INCH TO INCH AND TWO THIRDS RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

THU NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE
IN THE H925-850 LAYER WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE
EAST. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO 12C TO 14C OVER THE FCST AREA. THE SFC
DEWPTS WILL FALL INTO M40S TO L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE
REGION...WITH LOWER TO M50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND M50S TO L60S SOUTH AND EAST.  THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE
SRN REACHES OF THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WORK WEEK TO SET UP FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. A CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN MAINE. LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH H850 TEMPS LOWERING TO 11 TO 13C OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPT...BUT IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S
TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...AND
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY FORM...AND
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME.

SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH
LABOR DAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
FRONT WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH CHANCE POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES
WELL INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY ONLY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU...BUT IFR
TO VLIFR FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND
13Z. AFTER 13Z/14Z...ALL FOG WILL HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CANADA COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
THE TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM TONIGHT...AND BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AT 8 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY...AND THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 030516
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
116 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...ALL IS QUIET AT THE MOMENT WITH A THIN SCT-BKN
HIGH LEVEL CI/CS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. PER THE IR SATELLITE
TRENDS...CLOUDS TOP TEMPS WERE WARMING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER LOWER ONTARIO/QUEBEC DIMINISHING.
THIS NEGATES THE HIRES FORECAST REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS WHERE WE
SHOULD BE SEEING A SCT LINE OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED BACK THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE DACKS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE HAZE/MIST TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH MILD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

PREV DISC...SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT
FALL OFF AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SRN DACKS...SRN VT...NRN TACONICS...NRN BERKS AND ERN
CATSKILLS WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST OTHER SPOTS. PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AS WELL AS NEAR LAKE GEORGE/KGFL...AND PARTS OF SRN
VT...AND THE BERKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...A SHIFT IN AIR MASSES IS BRIEFLY EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE ALY FCST AREA TOMORROW TO CLOSE
THE WORK WEEK. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...THE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM...INITIALLY
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND THEN EXPANDING TO THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE MID PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS /MORE WIDESPREAD U60S TO L70S/ YIELDING
SBCAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG...WHILE THE GFS HAS SBCAPES IN THE
750-1500 J/KG RANGE OR SO WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND SHIFT DOWN
STREAM. HENCE...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 15-20 KTS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY
FURTHER SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...BUT THE SHEAR IS
WEAK FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS
OR MAINLY PULSE LIKE CONVECTION COULD FORM WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES OR AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
FRONT. THE BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY WEST OF THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY ABOUT
5.5-6C/KM OVER THE ALY AREA.

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. IF ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLD DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP SHEAR...AND WOULD
LIKELY BE IF A STORM SUSTAINED A TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFT FROM THE
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME DCAPES VALUES OF
GREATER THAN A 1000 J/KG FROM THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY W/SW.
OVERALL...AGREE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 GUIDANCE.
H850 TEMPS STILL IN THE 15C TO 17C RANGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID AND U80S IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 90F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. PWATS ARE
IN THE INCH TO INCH AND TWO THIRDS RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

THU NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE
IN THE H925-850 LAYER WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE
EAST. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO 12C TO 14C OVER THE FCST AREA. THE SFC
DEWPTS WILL FALL INTO M40S TO L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE
REGION...WITH LOWER TO M50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND M50S TO L60S SOUTH AND EAST.  THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE
SRN REACHES OF THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WORK WEEK TO SET UP FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. A CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN MAINE. LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH H850 TEMPS LOWERING TO 11 TO 13C OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPT...BUT IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S
TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...AND
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY FORM...AND
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME.

SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH
LABOR DAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
FRONT WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH CHANCE POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES
WELL INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY ONLY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU...BUT IFR
TO VLIFR FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND
13Z. AFTER 13Z/14Z...ALL FOG WILL HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CANADA COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
THE TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM TONIGHT...AND BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AT 8 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY...AND THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 030516
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
116 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...ALL IS QUIET AT THE MOMENT WITH A THIN SCT-BKN
HIGH LEVEL CI/CS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. PER THE IR SATELLITE
TRENDS...CLOUDS TOP TEMPS WERE WARMING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER LOWER ONTARIO/QUEBEC DIMINISHING.
THIS NEGATES THE HIRES FORECAST REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS WHERE WE
SHOULD BE SEEING A SCT LINE OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED BACK THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE DACKS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE HAZE/MIST TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH MILD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

PREV DISC...SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT
FALL OFF AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SRN DACKS...SRN VT...NRN TACONICS...NRN BERKS AND ERN
CATSKILLS WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST OTHER SPOTS. PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AS WELL AS NEAR LAKE GEORGE/KGFL...AND PARTS OF SRN
VT...AND THE BERKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...A SHIFT IN AIR MASSES IS BRIEFLY EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE ALY FCST AREA TOMORROW TO CLOSE
THE WORK WEEK. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...THE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM...INITIALLY
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND THEN EXPANDING TO THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE MID PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS /MORE WIDESPREAD U60S TO L70S/ YIELDING
SBCAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG...WHILE THE GFS HAS SBCAPES IN THE
750-1500 J/KG RANGE OR SO WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND SHIFT DOWN
STREAM. HENCE...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 15-20 KTS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY
FURTHER SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...BUT THE SHEAR IS
WEAK FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS
OR MAINLY PULSE LIKE CONVECTION COULD FORM WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES OR AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
FRONT. THE BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY WEST OF THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY ABOUT
5.5-6C/KM OVER THE ALY AREA.

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. IF ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLD DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP SHEAR...AND WOULD
LIKELY BE IF A STORM SUSTAINED A TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFT FROM THE
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME DCAPES VALUES OF
GREATER THAN A 1000 J/KG FROM THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY W/SW.
OVERALL...AGREE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 GUIDANCE.
H850 TEMPS STILL IN THE 15C TO 17C RANGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID AND U80S IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 90F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. PWATS ARE
IN THE INCH TO INCH AND TWO THIRDS RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

THU NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE
IN THE H925-850 LAYER WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE
EAST. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO 12C TO 14C OVER THE FCST AREA. THE SFC
DEWPTS WILL FALL INTO M40S TO L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE
REGION...WITH LOWER TO M50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND M50S TO L60S SOUTH AND EAST.  THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE
SRN REACHES OF THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WORK WEEK TO SET UP FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. A CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN MAINE. LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH H850 TEMPS LOWERING TO 11 TO 13C OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPT...BUT IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S
TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...AND
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY FORM...AND
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME.

SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH
LABOR DAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
FRONT WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH CHANCE POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES
WELL INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY ONLY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU...BUT IFR
TO VLIFR FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND
13Z. AFTER 13Z/14Z...ALL FOG WILL HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CANADA COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
THE TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM TONIGHT...AND BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AT 8 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY...AND THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 030516
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
116 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...ALL IS QUIET AT THE MOMENT WITH A THIN SCT-BKN
HIGH LEVEL CI/CS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. PER THE IR SATELLITE
TRENDS...CLOUDS TOP TEMPS WERE WARMING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER LOWER ONTARIO/QUEBEC DIMINISHING.
THIS NEGATES THE HIRES FORECAST REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS WHERE WE
SHOULD BE SEEING A SCT LINE OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED BACK THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE DACKS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE HAZE/MIST TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH MILD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

PREV DISC...SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT
FALL OFF AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SRN DACKS...SRN VT...NRN TACONICS...NRN BERKS AND ERN
CATSKILLS WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST OTHER SPOTS. PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AS WELL AS NEAR LAKE GEORGE/KGFL...AND PARTS OF SRN
VT...AND THE BERKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...A SHIFT IN AIR MASSES IS BRIEFLY EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE ALY FCST AREA TOMORROW TO CLOSE
THE WORK WEEK. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...THE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM...INITIALLY
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND THEN EXPANDING TO THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE MID PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS /MORE WIDESPREAD U60S TO L70S/ YIELDING
SBCAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG...WHILE THE GFS HAS SBCAPES IN THE
750-1500 J/KG RANGE OR SO WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND SHIFT DOWN
STREAM. HENCE...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 15-20 KTS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY
FURTHER SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...BUT THE SHEAR IS
WEAK FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS
OR MAINLY PULSE LIKE CONVECTION COULD FORM WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES OR AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
FRONT. THE BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY WEST OF THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY ABOUT
5.5-6C/KM OVER THE ALY AREA.

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. IF ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLD DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP SHEAR...AND WOULD
LIKELY BE IF A STORM SUSTAINED A TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFT FROM THE
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME DCAPES VALUES OF
GREATER THAN A 1000 J/KG FROM THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY W/SW.
OVERALL...AGREE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 GUIDANCE.
H850 TEMPS STILL IN THE 15C TO 17C RANGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID AND U80S IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 90F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. PWATS ARE
IN THE INCH TO INCH AND TWO THIRDS RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

THU NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE
IN THE H925-850 LAYER WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE
EAST. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO 12C TO 14C OVER THE FCST AREA. THE SFC
DEWPTS WILL FALL INTO M40S TO L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE
REGION...WITH LOWER TO M50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND M50S TO L60S SOUTH AND EAST.  THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE
SRN REACHES OF THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WORK WEEK TO SET UP FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. A CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN MAINE. LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH H850 TEMPS LOWERING TO 11 TO 13C OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPT...BUT IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S
TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...AND
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY FORM...AND
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME.

SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH
LABOR DAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
FRONT WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH CHANCE POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES
WELL INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY ONLY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU...BUT IFR
TO VLIFR FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND
13Z. AFTER 13Z/14Z...ALL FOG WILL HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CANADA COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
THE TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM TONIGHT...AND BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AT 8 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY...AND THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 030516
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
116 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...ALL IS QUIET AT THE MOMENT WITH A THIN SCT-BKN
HIGH LEVEL CI/CS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. PER THE IR SATELLITE
TRENDS...CLOUDS TOP TEMPS WERE WARMING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER LOWER ONTARIO/QUEBEC DIMINISHING.
THIS NEGATES THE HIRES FORECAST REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS WHERE WE
SHOULD BE SEEING A SCT LINE OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED BACK THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE DACKS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE HAZE/MIST TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH MILD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

PREV DISC...SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT
FALL OFF AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SRN DACKS...SRN VT...NRN TACONICS...NRN BERKS AND ERN
CATSKILLS WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST OTHER SPOTS. PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AS WELL AS NEAR LAKE GEORGE/KGFL...AND PARTS OF SRN
VT...AND THE BERKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...A SHIFT IN AIR MASSES IS BRIEFLY EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE ALY FCST AREA TOMORROW TO CLOSE
THE WORK WEEK. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...THE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM...INITIALLY
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND THEN EXPANDING TO THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE MID PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS /MORE WIDESPREAD U60S TO L70S/ YIELDING
SBCAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG...WHILE THE GFS HAS SBCAPES IN THE
750-1500 J/KG RANGE OR SO WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND SHIFT DOWN
STREAM. HENCE...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 15-20 KTS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY
FURTHER SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...BUT THE SHEAR IS
WEAK FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS
OR MAINLY PULSE LIKE CONVECTION COULD FORM WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES OR AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
FRONT. THE BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY WEST OF THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY ABOUT
5.5-6C/KM OVER THE ALY AREA.

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. IF ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLD DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP SHEAR...AND WOULD
LIKELY BE IF A STORM SUSTAINED A TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFT FROM THE
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME DCAPES VALUES OF
GREATER THAN A 1000 J/KG FROM THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY W/SW.
OVERALL...AGREE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 GUIDANCE.
H850 TEMPS STILL IN THE 15C TO 17C RANGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID AND U80S IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 90F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. PWATS ARE
IN THE INCH TO INCH AND TWO THIRDS RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

THU NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE
IN THE H925-850 LAYER WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE
EAST. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO 12C TO 14C OVER THE FCST AREA. THE SFC
DEWPTS WILL FALL INTO M40S TO L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE
REGION...WITH LOWER TO M50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND M50S TO L60S SOUTH AND EAST.  THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE
SRN REACHES OF THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WORK WEEK TO SET UP FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. A CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN MAINE. LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH H850 TEMPS LOWERING TO 11 TO 13C OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPT...BUT IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S
TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...AND
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY FORM...AND
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME.

SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH
LABOR DAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
FRONT WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH CHANCE POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES
WELL INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY ONLY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU...BUT IFR
TO VLIFR FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND
13Z. AFTER 13Z/14Z...ALL FOG WILL HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CANADA COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
THE TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM TONIGHT...AND BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AT 8 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY...AND THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 030516
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
116 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...ALL IS QUIET AT THE MOMENT WITH A THIN SCT-BKN
HIGH LEVEL CI/CS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. PER THE IR SATELLITE
TRENDS...CLOUDS TOP TEMPS WERE WARMING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER LOWER ONTARIO/QUEBEC DIMINISHING.
THIS NEGATES THE HIRES FORECAST REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS WHERE WE
SHOULD BE SEEING A SCT LINE OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...WE HAVE DROPPED BACK THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE DACKS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT
WILL BE HAZE/MIST TO PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH MILD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

PREV DISC...SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT
FALL OFF AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SRN DACKS...SRN VT...NRN TACONICS...NRN BERKS AND ERN
CATSKILLS WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST OTHER SPOTS. PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AS WELL AS NEAR LAKE GEORGE/KGFL...AND PARTS OF SRN
VT...AND THE BERKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...A SHIFT IN AIR MASSES IS BRIEFLY EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE ALY FCST AREA TOMORROW TO CLOSE
THE WORK WEEK. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...THE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM...INITIALLY
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND THEN EXPANDING TO THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE MID PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS /MORE WIDESPREAD U60S TO L70S/ YIELDING
SBCAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG...WHILE THE GFS HAS SBCAPES IN THE
750-1500 J/KG RANGE OR SO WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND SHIFT DOWN
STREAM. HENCE...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 15-20 KTS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY
FURTHER SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...BUT THE SHEAR IS
WEAK FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS
OR MAINLY PULSE LIKE CONVECTION COULD FORM WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES OR AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
FRONT. THE BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY WEST OF THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY ABOUT
5.5-6C/KM OVER THE ALY AREA.

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. IF ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLD DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP SHEAR...AND WOULD
LIKELY BE IF A STORM SUSTAINED A TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFT FROM THE
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME DCAPES VALUES OF
GREATER THAN A 1000 J/KG FROM THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY W/SW.
OVERALL...AGREE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 GUIDANCE.
H850 TEMPS STILL IN THE 15C TO 17C RANGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID AND U80S IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 90F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. PWATS ARE
IN THE INCH TO INCH AND TWO THIRDS RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

THU NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE
IN THE H925-850 LAYER WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE
EAST. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO 12C TO 14C OVER THE FCST AREA. THE SFC
DEWPTS WILL FALL INTO M40S TO L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE
REGION...WITH LOWER TO M50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND M50S TO L60S SOUTH AND EAST.  THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE
SRN REACHES OF THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WORK WEEK TO SET UP FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. A CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN MAINE. LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH H850 TEMPS LOWERING TO 11 TO 13C OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPT...BUT IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S
TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...AND
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY FORM...AND
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME.

SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH
LABOR DAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
FRONT WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH CHANCE POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES
WELL INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY ONLY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU...BUT IFR
TO VLIFR FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND
13Z. AFTER 13Z/14Z...ALL FOG WILL HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CANADA COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
THE TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM TONIGHT...AND BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AT 8 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY...AND THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 030204
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1004 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AHEAD OF WHICH
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT OVER CANADA STALLS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO SPEED UP THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP
THIS EVENING AS CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH DWPTS HOLDING NEAR THERE LATE
AFTERNOON OBSERVED VALUES...SUSPECT AFTER ABOUT 1-2AM WILL SEE
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOP IN TYPICALLY PRONE VALLEYS/GRASSY
SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGH PRESSURE MAKES FOR ANOTHER EVENING OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN TYPICALLY PRONE LOW-LYING LOCATIONS.
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL AID IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. LIKELY TO SEE A
COMBINATION OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF-MILE OR LESS AND LOW
CLOUDS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...

MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING IMPULSE ENERGY SWEEP SE ACROSS THE
NE CONUS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF REFRESHING COOL-DRY AIRMASS BUILDING
REARWARD WILL BECOME THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD.

EVALUATING THE ENVIRONMENT: DECENT LOW-MID LEVEL THETAE CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT YIELDING A MOISTENING PROFILE OF PWATS 1.50-
1.75 INCHES. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ALOFT...INSTABILITY VALUES BUILD
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH VALUES OF AROUND 1-2K J/KG AS BOUNDARY-
LAYER LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. PER BUFKIT...CAPE PROFILES DEEP AND NOT
TOO THIN. INVERTED-V PROFILES AT THE SURFACE. YET SOME THINGS WORTH
NOTING IS THE RATHER WEAK SHEAR. BETTER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL VENTING
RESIDES MORE TOWARDS THE NE. PREDOMINANT FLOW...EVEN AT H925-7...IS
FORECAST OUT OF THE N AND THERE IS A LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE ALSO BEING WEAK AROUND 10-15 MPH BETWEEN 0-6 KM.

OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE ALL THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE THERE BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER EVENT /ECHOED BY CIPS ANALOGS/ AND NOR DOES
IT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD. CERTAINLY MORE FOCUS ALONG THE N-FACING
SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN AND AS THE COLD FRONT COLLIDES WITH EXPECTED
ONSHORE SEA-BREEZES DURING THE DAY. FOCUS ON THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E/SE-INTERIOR WITH THE COLD FRONT / SEA-BREEZE
COLLISION.

GOING BACK TO CIPS ANALOGS AND THE ENVIRONMENT EVALUATION...SHOULD
ANY STORMS BECOME STRONG CAN NOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL AND A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT THOUGH THINK THIS WILL BE ISOLATED. THE MAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DECENT MOIST PROFILE AND FORECAST
SLOW-MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. COULD BE DEALING WITH POOR-DRAINAGE /
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEATHER IMPACT EXPECTED.
A HOT AND HUMID DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF OUR AREA TOWARDS THE S/W AS A CANADIAN
HIGH AND COOL-DRY AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION. COULD BE CONTENDING
WITH CONTINUED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOWARDS MIDNIGHT BUT
DIMINISHING AS THE MAIN MID-LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES OFFSHORE AWAY FROM
BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND WE FIND OURSELVES BENEATH A DRY-SUBSIDING
AIRMASS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CRASH. LOWS DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE LOW-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL USA AND TROUGHS OVER THE MARITIMES AND PACIFIC
COAST. THIS FLATTENS TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
USA BY MIDWEEK. CONTOUR HEIGHTS RUN NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SHORTER WAVELENGTHS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST USA
WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE RIDGE FLATTENS A LITTLE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

MODEL MASS AND THERMAL FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...
EVEN WEDNESDAY ISN/T TOO BAD. USING A BLEND OF THESE WOULD BE REASONABLE.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS PRODUCES AN APPRECIABLE N-S PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH BRING INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE GRADIENT DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
EXPECT A BREEZY MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AT OR BELOW 800 MB SO
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD A DRYING AIRMASS...SO
EXPECT ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY.

MIXING REACHES TO 900 MB...AND TEMPS AT 900 MB WILL BE AT 13-15C.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO 8-10C AT 850 MB...SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.
COULD BE A FEW VALUES AT 80 IN WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE CT VALLEY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BUFFER VALUES IN EASTERN MASS.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND SHIFT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE AIR WILL BE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERHAPS SOME INCREASING CIRRUS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIXING CONTINUES TO 900 MB SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
AND TO 850 MB MONDAY. TEMPS AT THESE LEVELS...CONVERTED TO 850 MB
VALUES...TREND FROM 10-12C SAT TO 13-15C SUNDAY TO 17-18C MONDAY.
SO EXPECT VALUES U70-L80S SATURDAY...80S SUNDAY...AROUND 90
MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... A COLD FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES THE
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH THE FRONT AND MOST OF THAT IS BELOW 750
MB. SO LOOK FOR A FEW CLOUDS AND MAYBE A STRAY SHOWER LATE TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WE WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR. AREAS OF IFR FOG OR LOWER EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN THE CT VALLEY...MOSTLY MASS...AND OTHER FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...
VFR. AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SHRA/TSRA. TEMPO MVFR IMPACTS. MAIN
THREAT +RA. PERHAPS SOME BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE N AND/OR HAIL
SHOULD ANY TSRA BECOME STRONG. THINKING ISOLATED IMPACTS. LOW
CONFIDENCE. SEA-BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS DURING THE
DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
VFR. SHRA CONCLUDING. N-WINDS PREVAILING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE FOR THE MIDDAY
PERIOD ON THURSDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY
GIVES WAY TO LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT BEHIND WHICH NE-WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. IT MAY BE WORTH
CONSIDERING BY THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WAVES COULD
REACH 5-FEET ESPECIALLY OVER THE E-WATERS. MORE IN THE OUTLOOK
DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SUB-SEVERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM BUT THE BETTER CHANCE IS ACROSS THE E/SE-INTERIOR
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY... INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
FROM CANADA. MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT WINDS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY DRIVE SEA HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
WIND AND SEAS DIMINISH TO LIGHT SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 030204
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1004 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AHEAD OF WHICH
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT OVER CANADA STALLS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO SPEED UP THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP
THIS EVENING AS CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH DWPTS HOLDING NEAR THERE LATE
AFTERNOON OBSERVED VALUES...SUSPECT AFTER ABOUT 1-2AM WILL SEE
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOP IN TYPICALLY PRONE VALLEYS/GRASSY
SPOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGH PRESSURE MAKES FOR ANOTHER EVENING OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN TYPICALLY PRONE LOW-LYING LOCATIONS.
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL AID IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. LIKELY TO SEE A
COMBINATION OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF-MILE OR LESS AND LOW
CLOUDS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...

MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING IMPULSE ENERGY SWEEP SE ACROSS THE
NE CONUS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF REFRESHING COOL-DRY AIRMASS BUILDING
REARWARD WILL BECOME THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD.

EVALUATING THE ENVIRONMENT: DECENT LOW-MID LEVEL THETAE CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT YIELDING A MOISTENING PROFILE OF PWATS 1.50-
1.75 INCHES. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ALOFT...INSTABILITY VALUES BUILD
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH VALUES OF AROUND 1-2K J/KG AS BOUNDARY-
LAYER LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. PER BUFKIT...CAPE PROFILES DEEP AND NOT
TOO THIN. INVERTED-V PROFILES AT THE SURFACE. YET SOME THINGS WORTH
NOTING IS THE RATHER WEAK SHEAR. BETTER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL VENTING
RESIDES MORE TOWARDS THE NE. PREDOMINANT FLOW...EVEN AT H925-7...IS
FORECAST OUT OF THE N AND THERE IS A LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE ALSO BEING WEAK AROUND 10-15 MPH BETWEEN 0-6 KM.

OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE ALL THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE THERE BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER EVENT /ECHOED BY CIPS ANALOGS/ AND NOR DOES
IT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD. CERTAINLY MORE FOCUS ALONG THE N-FACING
SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN AND AS THE COLD FRONT COLLIDES WITH EXPECTED
ONSHORE SEA-BREEZES DURING THE DAY. FOCUS ON THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E/SE-INTERIOR WITH THE COLD FRONT / SEA-BREEZE
COLLISION.

GOING BACK TO CIPS ANALOGS AND THE ENVIRONMENT EVALUATION...SHOULD
ANY STORMS BECOME STRONG CAN NOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL AND A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT THOUGH THINK THIS WILL BE ISOLATED. THE MAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DECENT MOIST PROFILE AND FORECAST
SLOW-MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. COULD BE DEALING WITH POOR-DRAINAGE /
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEATHER IMPACT EXPECTED.
A HOT AND HUMID DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF OUR AREA TOWARDS THE S/W AS A CANADIAN
HIGH AND COOL-DRY AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION. COULD BE CONTENDING
WITH CONTINUED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOWARDS MIDNIGHT BUT
DIMINISHING AS THE MAIN MID-LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES OFFSHORE AWAY FROM
BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND WE FIND OURSELVES BENEATH A DRY-SUBSIDING
AIRMASS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CRASH. LOWS DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE LOW-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL USA AND TROUGHS OVER THE MARITIMES AND PACIFIC
COAST. THIS FLATTENS TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
USA BY MIDWEEK. CONTOUR HEIGHTS RUN NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SHORTER WAVELENGTHS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST USA
WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE RIDGE FLATTENS A LITTLE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

MODEL MASS AND THERMAL FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...
EVEN WEDNESDAY ISN/T TOO BAD. USING A BLEND OF THESE WOULD BE REASONABLE.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS PRODUCES AN APPRECIABLE N-S PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH BRING INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE GRADIENT DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
EXPECT A BREEZY MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AT OR BELOW 800 MB SO
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD A DRYING AIRMASS...SO
EXPECT ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY.

MIXING REACHES TO 900 MB...AND TEMPS AT 900 MB WILL BE AT 13-15C.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO 8-10C AT 850 MB...SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.
COULD BE A FEW VALUES AT 80 IN WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE CT VALLEY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BUFFER VALUES IN EASTERN MASS.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND SHIFT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE AIR WILL BE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERHAPS SOME INCREASING CIRRUS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIXING CONTINUES TO 900 MB SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
AND TO 850 MB MONDAY. TEMPS AT THESE LEVELS...CONVERTED TO 850 MB
VALUES...TREND FROM 10-12C SAT TO 13-15C SUNDAY TO 17-18C MONDAY.
SO EXPECT VALUES U70-L80S SATURDAY...80S SUNDAY...AROUND 90
MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... A COLD FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES THE
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH THE FRONT AND MOST OF THAT IS BELOW 750
MB. SO LOOK FOR A FEW CLOUDS AND MAYBE A STRAY SHOWER LATE TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WE WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR. AREAS OF IFR FOG OR LOWER EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN THE CT VALLEY...MOSTLY MASS...AND OTHER FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...
VFR. AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SHRA/TSRA. TEMPO MVFR IMPACTS. MAIN
THREAT +RA. PERHAPS SOME BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE N AND/OR HAIL
SHOULD ANY TSRA BECOME STRONG. THINKING ISOLATED IMPACTS. LOW
CONFIDENCE. SEA-BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS DURING THE
DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
VFR. SHRA CONCLUDING. N-WINDS PREVAILING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE FOR THE MIDDAY
PERIOD ON THURSDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY
GIVES WAY TO LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT BEHIND WHICH NE-WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. IT MAY BE WORTH
CONSIDERING BY THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WAVES COULD
REACH 5-FEET ESPECIALLY OVER THE E-WATERS. MORE IN THE OUTLOOK
DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SUB-SEVERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM BUT THE BETTER CHANCE IS ACROSS THE E/SE-INTERIOR
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY... INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
FROM CANADA. MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT WINDS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY DRIVE SEA HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
WIND AND SEAS DIMINISH TO LIGHT SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 030157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
957 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SOME THIN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING OVER THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS...AS CONVECTION IN CANADA CONTINUES
TO SPILL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SOUTHWARD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BE SLOWLY MOVING S/SE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC. BASED ON
CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS...LITTLE TO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT IF ANYTHING. THE PREVIOUS AFD HAS A FEW MORE DETAILS ABOUT
INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND IS BELOW...

SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OFF
AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN
DACKS...SRN VT...NRN TACONICS...NRN BERKS AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH
LOWER TO M60S IN MOST OTHER SPOTS. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG WAS
ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS NEAR
LAKE GEORGE/KGFL...AND PARTS OF SRN VT...AND THE BERKS.

THERE IS THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT /3-6 AM/ WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS WE KEPT IN OVER
NRN HAMILTON AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...A SHIFT IN AIR MASSES IS BRIEFLY EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE ALY FCST AREA TOMORROW TO CLOSE
THE WORK WEEK. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...THE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM...INITIALLY
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND THEN EXPANDING TO THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE MID PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS /MORE WIDESPREAD U60S TO L70S/ YIELDING
SBCAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG...WHILE THE GFS HAS SBCAPES IN THE
750-1500 J/KG RANGE OR SO WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND SHIFT DOWN
STREAM. HENCE...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 15-20 KTS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY
FURTHER SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...BUT THE SHEAR IS
WEAK FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS
OR MAINLY PULSE LIKE CONVECTION COULD FORM WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES OR AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
FRONT. THE BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY WEST OF THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY ABOUT
5.5-6C/KM OVER THE ALY AREA.

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. IF ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLD DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP SHEAR...AND WOULD
LIKELY BE IF A STORM SUSTAINED A TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFT FROM THE
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME DCAPES VALUES OF
GREATER THAN A 1000 J/KG FROM THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY W/SW.
OVERALL...AGREE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 GUIDANCE.
H850 TEMPS STILL IN THE 15C TO 17C RANGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID AND U80S IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 90F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. PWATS ARE
IN THE INCH TO INCH AND TWO THIRDS RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

THU NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE
IN THE H925-850 LAYER WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE
EAST. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO 12C TO 14C OVER THE FCST AREA. THE SFC
DEWPTS WILL FALL INTO M40S TO L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE
REGION...WITH LOWER TO M50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND M50S TO L60S SOUTH AND EAST.  THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE
SRN REACHES OF THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WORK WEEK TO SET UP FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. A CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN MAINE. LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH H850 TEMPS LOWERING TO 11 TO 13C OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPT...BUT IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S
TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...AND
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY FORM...AND
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME.

SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH
LABOR DAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
FRONT WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH CHANCE POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES
WELL INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY ONLY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU...BUT IFR
TO VLIFR FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND
13Z. AFTER 13Z/14Z...ALL FOG WILL HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CANADA COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
THE TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM TONIGHT...AND BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AT 8 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY...AND THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 030157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
957 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SOME THIN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING OVER THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS...AS CONVECTION IN CANADA CONTINUES
TO SPILL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SOUTHWARD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BE SLOWLY MOVING S/SE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC. BASED ON
CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS...LITTLE TO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT IF ANYTHING. THE PREVIOUS AFD HAS A FEW MORE DETAILS ABOUT
INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND IS BELOW...

SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OFF
AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN
DACKS...SRN VT...NRN TACONICS...NRN BERKS AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH
LOWER TO M60S IN MOST OTHER SPOTS. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG WAS
ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS NEAR
LAKE GEORGE/KGFL...AND PARTS OF SRN VT...AND THE BERKS.

THERE IS THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT /3-6 AM/ WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS WE KEPT IN OVER
NRN HAMILTON AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...A SHIFT IN AIR MASSES IS BRIEFLY EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE ALY FCST AREA TOMORROW TO CLOSE
THE WORK WEEK. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...THE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM...INITIALLY
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND THEN EXPANDING TO THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE MID PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS /MORE WIDESPREAD U60S TO L70S/ YIELDING
SBCAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG...WHILE THE GFS HAS SBCAPES IN THE
750-1500 J/KG RANGE OR SO WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND SHIFT DOWN
STREAM. HENCE...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 15-20 KTS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY
FURTHER SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...BUT THE SHEAR IS
WEAK FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS
OR MAINLY PULSE LIKE CONVECTION COULD FORM WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES OR AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
FRONT. THE BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY WEST OF THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY ABOUT
5.5-6C/KM OVER THE ALY AREA.

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. IF ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLD DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP SHEAR...AND WOULD
LIKELY BE IF A STORM SUSTAINED A TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFT FROM THE
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME DCAPES VALUES OF
GREATER THAN A 1000 J/KG FROM THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY W/SW.
OVERALL...AGREE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 GUIDANCE.
H850 TEMPS STILL IN THE 15C TO 17C RANGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID AND U80S IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 90F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. PWATS ARE
IN THE INCH TO INCH AND TWO THIRDS RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

THU NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE
IN THE H925-850 LAYER WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE
EAST. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO 12C TO 14C OVER THE FCST AREA. THE SFC
DEWPTS WILL FALL INTO M40S TO L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE
REGION...WITH LOWER TO M50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND M50S TO L60S SOUTH AND EAST.  THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE
SRN REACHES OF THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WORK WEEK TO SET UP FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. A CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN MAINE. LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH H850 TEMPS LOWERING TO 11 TO 13C OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPT...BUT IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S
TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...AND
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY FORM...AND
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME.

SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH
LABOR DAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
FRONT WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH CHANCE POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES
WELL INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY ONLY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU...BUT IFR
TO VLIFR FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND
13Z. AFTER 13Z/14Z...ALL FOG WILL HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CANADA COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
THE TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM TONIGHT...AND BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AT 8 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY...AND THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 022329
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
729 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SOME THIN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING OVER THE REGION AS
CONVECTION IN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SOUTHWARD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING S/SE
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC. BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND
TRENDS...LITTLE TO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT IF
ANYTHING. THE PREVIOUS AFD HAS A FEW MORE DETAILS ABOUT INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND IS BELOW...

SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OFF
AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN
DACKS...SRN VT...NRN TACONICS...NRN BERKS AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH
LOWER TO M60S IN MOST OTHER SPOTS. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG WAS
ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS NEAR
LAKE GEORGE/KGFL...AND PARTS OF SRN VT...AND THE BERKS.

THERE IS THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT /3-6 AM/ WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS WE KEPT IN OVER
NRN HAMILTON AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...A SHIFT IN AIR MASSES IS BRIEFLY EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE ALY FCST AREA TOMORROW TO CLOSE
THE WORK WEEK. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...THE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM...INITIALLY
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND THEN EXPANDING TO THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE MID PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS /MORE WIDESPREAD U60S TO L70S/ YIELDING
SBCAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG...WHILE THE GFS HAS SBCAPES IN THE
750-1500 J/KG RANGE OR SO WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND SHIFT DOWN
STREAM. HENCE...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 15-20 KTS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY
FURTHER SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...BUT THE SHEAR IS
WEAK FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS
OR MAINLY PULSE LIKE CONVECTION COULD FORM WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES OR AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
FRONT. THE BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY WEST OF THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY ABOUT
5.5-6C/KM OVER THE ALY AREA.

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. IF ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLD DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP SHEAR...AND WOULD
LIKELY BE IF A STORM SUSTAINED A TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFT FROM THE
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME DCAPES VALUES OF
GREATER THAN A 1000 J/KG FROM THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY W/SW.
OVERALL...AGREE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 GUIDANCE.
H850 TEMPS STILL IN THE 15C TO 17C RANGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID AND U80S IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 90F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. PWATS ARE
IN THE INCH TO INCH AND TWO THIRDS RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

THU NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE
IN THE H925-850 LAYER WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE
EAST. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO 12C TO 14C OVER THE FCST AREA. THE SFC
DEWPTS WILL FALL INTO M40S TO L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE
REGION...WITH LOWER TO M50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND M50S TO L60S SOUTH AND EAST.  THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE
SRN REACHES OF THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WORK WEEK TO SET UP FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. A CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN MAINE. LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH H850 TEMPS LOWERING TO 11 TO 13C OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPT...BUT IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S
TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...AND
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY FORM...AND
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME.

SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH
LABOR DAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
FRONT WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH CHANCE POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES
WELL INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY ONLY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU...BUT IFR
TO VLIFR FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND
13Z. AFTER 13Z/14Z...ALL FOG WILL HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CANADA COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
THE TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM TONIGHT...AND BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AT 8 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY...AND THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 022329
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
729 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SOME THIN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING OVER THE REGION AS
CONVECTION IN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SOUTHWARD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING S/SE
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC. BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND
TRENDS...LITTLE TO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT IF
ANYTHING. THE PREVIOUS AFD HAS A FEW MORE DETAILS ABOUT INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND IS BELOW...

SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OFF
AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN
DACKS...SRN VT...NRN TACONICS...NRN BERKS AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH
LOWER TO M60S IN MOST OTHER SPOTS. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG WAS
ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS NEAR
LAKE GEORGE/KGFL...AND PARTS OF SRN VT...AND THE BERKS.

THERE IS THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT /3-6 AM/ WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS WE KEPT IN OVER
NRN HAMILTON AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...A SHIFT IN AIR MASSES IS BRIEFLY EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE ALY FCST AREA TOMORROW TO CLOSE
THE WORK WEEK. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...THE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM...INITIALLY
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND THEN EXPANDING TO THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE MID PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS /MORE WIDESPREAD U60S TO L70S/ YIELDING
SBCAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG...WHILE THE GFS HAS SBCAPES IN THE
750-1500 J/KG RANGE OR SO WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND SHIFT DOWN
STREAM. HENCE...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 15-20 KTS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY
FURTHER SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...BUT THE SHEAR IS
WEAK FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS
OR MAINLY PULSE LIKE CONVECTION COULD FORM WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES OR AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
FRONT. THE BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY WEST OF THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY ABOUT
5.5-6C/KM OVER THE ALY AREA.

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. IF ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLD DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP SHEAR...AND WOULD
LIKELY BE IF A STORM SUSTAINED A TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFT FROM THE
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME DCAPES VALUES OF
GREATER THAN A 1000 J/KG FROM THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY W/SW.
OVERALL...AGREE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 GUIDANCE.
H850 TEMPS STILL IN THE 15C TO 17C RANGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID AND U80S IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 90F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. PWATS ARE
IN THE INCH TO INCH AND TWO THIRDS RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

THU NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE
IN THE H925-850 LAYER WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE
EAST. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO 12C TO 14C OVER THE FCST AREA. THE SFC
DEWPTS WILL FALL INTO M40S TO L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE
REGION...WITH LOWER TO M50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND M50S TO L60S SOUTH AND EAST.  THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE
SRN REACHES OF THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WORK WEEK TO SET UP FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. A CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN MAINE. LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH H850 TEMPS LOWERING TO 11 TO 13C OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPT...BUT IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S
TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...AND
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY FORM...AND
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME.

SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH
LABOR DAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
FRONT WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH CHANCE POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES
WELL INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY ONLY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU...BUT IFR
TO VLIFR FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND
13Z. AFTER 13Z/14Z...ALL FOG WILL HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CANADA COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
THE TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM TONIGHT...AND BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AT 8 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY...AND THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 022329
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
729 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SOME THIN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING OVER THE REGION AS
CONVECTION IN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SOUTHWARD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING S/SE
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC. BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND
TRENDS...LITTLE TO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT IF
ANYTHING. THE PREVIOUS AFD HAS A FEW MORE DETAILS ABOUT INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND IS BELOW...

SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OFF
AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN
DACKS...SRN VT...NRN TACONICS...NRN BERKS AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH
LOWER TO M60S IN MOST OTHER SPOTS. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG WAS
ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS NEAR
LAKE GEORGE/KGFL...AND PARTS OF SRN VT...AND THE BERKS.

THERE IS THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT /3-6 AM/ WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS WE KEPT IN OVER
NRN HAMILTON AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...A SHIFT IN AIR MASSES IS BRIEFLY EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE ALY FCST AREA TOMORROW TO CLOSE
THE WORK WEEK. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...THE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM...INITIALLY
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND THEN EXPANDING TO THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE MID PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS /MORE WIDESPREAD U60S TO L70S/ YIELDING
SBCAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG...WHILE THE GFS HAS SBCAPES IN THE
750-1500 J/KG RANGE OR SO WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND SHIFT DOWN
STREAM. HENCE...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 15-20 KTS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY
FURTHER SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...BUT THE SHEAR IS
WEAK FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS
OR MAINLY PULSE LIKE CONVECTION COULD FORM WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES OR AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
FRONT. THE BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY WEST OF THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY ABOUT
5.5-6C/KM OVER THE ALY AREA.

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. IF ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLD DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP SHEAR...AND WOULD
LIKELY BE IF A STORM SUSTAINED A TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFT FROM THE
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME DCAPES VALUES OF
GREATER THAN A 1000 J/KG FROM THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY W/SW.
OVERALL...AGREE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 GUIDANCE.
H850 TEMPS STILL IN THE 15C TO 17C RANGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID AND U80S IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 90F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. PWATS ARE
IN THE INCH TO INCH AND TWO THIRDS RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

THU NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE
IN THE H925-850 LAYER WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE
EAST. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO 12C TO 14C OVER THE FCST AREA. THE SFC
DEWPTS WILL FALL INTO M40S TO L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE
REGION...WITH LOWER TO M50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND M50S TO L60S SOUTH AND EAST.  THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE
SRN REACHES OF THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WORK WEEK TO SET UP FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. A CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN MAINE. LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH H850 TEMPS LOWERING TO 11 TO 13C OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPT...BUT IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S
TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...AND
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY FORM...AND
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME.

SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH
LABOR DAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
FRONT WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH CHANCE POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES
WELL INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY ONLY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU...BUT IFR
TO VLIFR FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND
13Z. AFTER 13Z/14Z...ALL FOG WILL HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CANADA COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
THE TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM TONIGHT...AND BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AT 8 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY...AND THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 022329
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
729 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SOME THIN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING OVER THE REGION AS
CONVECTION IN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SOUTHWARD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING S/SE
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC. BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND
TRENDS...LITTLE TO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT IF
ANYTHING. THE PREVIOUS AFD HAS A FEW MORE DETAILS ABOUT INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND IS BELOW...

SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OFF
AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN
DACKS...SRN VT...NRN TACONICS...NRN BERKS AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH
LOWER TO M60S IN MOST OTHER SPOTS. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG WAS
ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS NEAR
LAKE GEORGE/KGFL...AND PARTS OF SRN VT...AND THE BERKS.

THERE IS THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT /3-6 AM/ WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS WE KEPT IN OVER
NRN HAMILTON AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...A SHIFT IN AIR MASSES IS BRIEFLY EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE ALY FCST AREA TOMORROW TO CLOSE
THE WORK WEEK. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...THE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM...INITIALLY
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND THEN EXPANDING TO THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE MID PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS /MORE WIDESPREAD U60S TO L70S/ YIELDING
SBCAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG...WHILE THE GFS HAS SBCAPES IN THE
750-1500 J/KG RANGE OR SO WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND SHIFT DOWN
STREAM. HENCE...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 15-20 KTS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY
FURTHER SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...BUT THE SHEAR IS
WEAK FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS
OR MAINLY PULSE LIKE CONVECTION COULD FORM WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES OR AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
FRONT. THE BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY WEST OF THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY ABOUT
5.5-6C/KM OVER THE ALY AREA.

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. IF ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLD DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP SHEAR...AND WOULD
LIKELY BE IF A STORM SUSTAINED A TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFT FROM THE
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME DCAPES VALUES OF
GREATER THAN A 1000 J/KG FROM THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY W/SW.
OVERALL...AGREE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 GUIDANCE.
H850 TEMPS STILL IN THE 15C TO 17C RANGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID AND U80S IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 90F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. PWATS ARE
IN THE INCH TO INCH AND TWO THIRDS RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

THU NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE
IN THE H925-850 LAYER WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE
EAST. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO 12C TO 14C OVER THE FCST AREA. THE SFC
DEWPTS WILL FALL INTO M40S TO L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE
REGION...WITH LOWER TO M50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND M50S TO L60S SOUTH AND EAST.  THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE
SRN REACHES OF THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WORK WEEK TO SET UP FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. A CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN MAINE. LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH H850 TEMPS LOWERING TO 11 TO 13C OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPT...BUT IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S
TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...AND
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY FORM...AND
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME.

SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH
LABOR DAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
FRONT WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH CHANCE POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES
WELL INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY ONLY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU...BUT IFR
TO VLIFR FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND
13Z. AFTER 13Z/14Z...ALL FOG WILL HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CANADA COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
THE TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM TONIGHT...AND BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AT 8 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY...AND THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 022259
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AHEAD OF WHICH
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT OVER CANADA STALLS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET WITH PATCHY CLOUDS UPSTREAM THAT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER BUT OTHERWISE THE SAME FORECAST. MIN TEMPS NEAR THE DEW
POINTS...IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW URBAN SPOTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGH PRESSURE MAKES FOR ANOTHER EVENING OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN TYPICALLY PRONE LOW-LYING LOCATIONS.
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL AID IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. LIKELY TO SEE A
COMBINATION OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF-MILE OR LESS AND LOW
CLOUDS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...

MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING IMPULSE ENERGY SWEEP SE ACROSS THE
NE CONUS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF REFRESHING COOL-DRY AIRMASS BUILDING
REARWARD WILL BECOME THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD.

EVALUATING THE ENVIRONMENT: DECENT LOW-MID LEVEL THETAE CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT YIELDING A MOISTENING PROFILE OF PWATS 1.50-
1.75 INCHES. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ALOFT...INSTABILITY VALUES BUILD
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH VALUES OF AROUND 1-2K J/KG AS BOUNDARY-
LAYER LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. PER BUFKIT...CAPE PROFILES DEEP AND NOT
TOO THIN. INVERTED-V PROFILES AT THE SURFACE. YET SOME THINGS WORTH
NOTING IS THE RATHER WEAK SHEAR. BETTER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL VENTING
RESIDES MORE TOWARDS THE NE. PREDOMINANT FLOW...EVEN AT H925-7...IS
FORECAST OUT OF THE N AND THERE IS A LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE ALSO BEING WEAK AROUND 10-15 MPH BETWEEN 0-6 KM.

OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE ALL THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE THERE BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER EVENT /ECHOED BY CIPS ANALOGS/ AND NOR DOES
IT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD. CERTAINLY MORE FOCUS ALONG THE N-FACING
SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN AND AS THE COLD FRONT COLLIDES WITH EXPECTED
ONSHORE SEA-BREEZES DURING THE DAY. FOCUS ON THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E/SE-INTERIOR WITH THE COLD FRONT / SEA-BREEZE
COLLISION.

GOING BACK TO CIPS ANALOGS AND THE ENVIRONMENT EVALUATION...SHOULD
ANY STORMS BECOME STRONG CAN NOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL AND A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT THOUGH THINK THIS WILL BE ISOLATED. THE MAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DECENT MOIST PROFILE AND FORECAST
SLOW-MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. COULD BE DEALING WITH POOR-DRAINAGE /
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEATHER IMPACT EXPECTED.
A HOT AND HUMID DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF OUR AREA TOWARDS THE S/W AS A CANADIAN
HIGH AND COOL-DRY AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION. COULD BE CONTENDING
WITH CONTINUED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOWARDS MIDNIGHT BUT
DIMINISHING AS THE MAIN MID-LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES OFFSHORE AWAY FROM
BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND WE FIND OURSELVES BENEATH A DRY-SUBSIDING
AIRMASS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CRASH. LOWS DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE LOW-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL USA AND TROUGHS OVER THE MARITIMES AND PACIFIC
COAST. THIS FLATTENS TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
USA BY MIDWEEK. CONTOUR HEIGHTS RUN NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SHORTER WAVELENGTHS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST USA
WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE RIDGE FLATTENS A LITTLE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

MODEL MASS AND THERMAL FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...
EVEN WEDNESDAY ISN/T TOO BAD. USING A BLEND OF THESE WOULD BE REASONABLE.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS PRODUCES AN APPRECIABLE N-S PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH BRING INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE GRADIENT DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
EXPECT A BREEZY MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AT OR BELOW 800 MB SO
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD A DRYING AIRMASS...SO
EXPECT ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY.

MIXING REACHES TO 900 MB...AND TEMPS AT 900 MB WILL BE AT 13-15C.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO 8-10C AT 850 MB...SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.
COULD BE A FEW VALUES AT 80 IN WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE CT VALLEY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BUFFER VALUES IN EASTERN MASS.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND SHIFT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE AIR WILL BE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERHAPS SOME INCREASING CIRRUS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIXING CONTINUES TO 900 MB SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
AND TO 850 MB MONDAY. TEMPS AT THESE LEVELS...CONVERTED TO 850 MB
VALUES...TREND FROM 10-12C SAT TO 13-15C SUNDAY TO 17-18C MONDAY.
SO EXPECT VALUES U70-L80S SATURDAY...80S SUNDAY...AROUND 90
MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... A COLD FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES THE
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH THE FRONT AND MOST OF THAT IS BELOW 750
MB. SO LOOK FOR A FEW CLOUDS AND MAYBE A STRAY SHOWER LATE TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WE WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR. AREAS OF IFR FOG OR LOWER EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN THE CT VALLEY...MOSTLY MASS...AND OTHER FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY...
VFR. AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SHRA/TSRA. TEMPO MVFR IMPACTS. MAIN
THREAT +RA. PERHAPS SOME BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE N AND/OR HAIL
SHOULD ANY TSRA BECOME STRONG. THINKING ISOLATED IMPACTS. LOW
CONFIDENCE. SEA-BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS DURING THE
DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
VFR. SHRA CONCLUDING. N-WINDS PREVAILING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE FOR THE MIDDAY
PERIOD ON THURSDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY
GIVES WAY TO LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT BEHIND WHICH NE-WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. IT MAY BE WORTH
CONSIDERING BY THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WAVES COULD
REACH 5-FEET ESPECIALLY OVER THE E-WATERS. MORE IN THE OUTLOOK
DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SUB-SEVERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM BUT THE BETTER CHANCE IS ACROSS THE E/SE-INTERIOR
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY... INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
FROM CANADA. MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT WINDS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY DRIVE SEA HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
WIND AND SEAS DIMINISH TO LIGHT SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 022022
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
422 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 422 PM EDT...A HOT AND HUMID EARLY SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON FOR
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGH TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
EAST OF CAPE COD HAS ALLOWED SFC DEWPTS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME SPOTTY U60S.

THE FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS PM/EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE
EVENING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING S/SE ACROSS
SRN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC.

SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OFF
AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN
DACKS...SRN VT...NRN TACONICS...NRN BERKS AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH
LOWER TO M60S IN MOST OTHER SPOTS. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG WAS
ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS NEAR
LAKE GEORGE/KGFL...AND PARTS OF SRN VT...AND THE BERKS.

THERE IS THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT /3-6 AM/ WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS WE KEPT IN OVER
NRN HAMILTON AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...A SHIFT IN AIR MASSES IS BRIEFLY EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE ALY FCST AREA TOMORROW TO CLOSE
THE WORK WEEK. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...THE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM...INITIALLY
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND THEN EXPANDING TO THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE MID PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS /MORE WIDESPREAD U60S TO L70S/ YIELDING
SBCAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG...WHILE THE GFS HAS SBCAPES IN THE
750-1500 J/KG RANGE OR SO WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND SHIFT DOWN
STREAM. HENCE...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 15-20 KTS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY
FURTHER SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...BUT THE SHEAR IS
WEAK FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS
OR MAINLY PULSE LIKE CONVECTION COULD FORM WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES OR AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
FRONT. THE BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY WEST OF THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY ABOUT
5.5-6C/KM OVER THE ALY AREA.

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. IF ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLD DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP SHEAR...AND WOULD
LIKELY BE IF A STORM SUSTAINED A TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFT FROM THE
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME DCAPES VALUES OF
GREATER THAN A 1000 J/KG FROM THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY W/SW.
OVERALL...AGREE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 GUIDANCE.
H850 TEMPS STILL IN THE 15C TO 17C RANGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID AND U80S IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 90F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. PWATS ARE
IN THE INCH TO INCH AND TWO THIRDS RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

THU NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE
IN THE H925-850 LAYER WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE
EAST. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO 12C TO 14C OVER THE FCST AREA. THE SFC
DEWPTS WILL FALL INTO M40S TO L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE
REGION...WITH LOWER TO M50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND M50S TO L60S SOUTH AND EAST.  THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE
SRN REACHES OF THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WORK WEEK TO SET UP FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. A CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN MAINE. LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH H850 TEMPS LOWERING TO 11 TO 13C OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPT...BUT IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S
TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...AND
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY FORM...AND
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME.

SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH
LABOR DAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
FRONT WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH CHANCE POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES
WELL INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY ONLY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU...BUT IFR
TO VLIFR FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND
13Z. AFTER 13Z/14Z...ALL FOG WILL HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CANADA COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTN. AT THIS POINT HAVE NOT EVEN INCLUDED
VCSH AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS AT THE TAF
SITES...THEN MAINLY CALM TONIGHT...AND BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AT 8 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY...AND THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 022022
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
422 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 422 PM EDT...A HOT AND HUMID EARLY SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON FOR
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGH TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
EAST OF CAPE COD HAS ALLOWED SFC DEWPTS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME SPOTTY U60S.

THE FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS PM/EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE
EVENING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING S/SE ACROSS
SRN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC.

SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OFF
AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN
DACKS...SRN VT...NRN TACONICS...NRN BERKS AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH
LOWER TO M60S IN MOST OTHER SPOTS. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG WAS
ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS NEAR
LAKE GEORGE/KGFL...AND PARTS OF SRN VT...AND THE BERKS.

THERE IS THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT /3-6 AM/ WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS WE KEPT IN OVER
NRN HAMILTON AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...A SHIFT IN AIR MASSES IS BRIEFLY EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE ALY FCST AREA TOMORROW TO CLOSE
THE WORK WEEK. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...THE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM...INITIALLY
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND THEN EXPANDING TO THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE MID PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS /MORE WIDESPREAD U60S TO L70S/ YIELDING
SBCAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG...WHILE THE GFS HAS SBCAPES IN THE
750-1500 J/KG RANGE OR SO WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND SHIFT DOWN
STREAM. HENCE...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 15-20 KTS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY
FURTHER SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...BUT THE SHEAR IS
WEAK FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS
OR MAINLY PULSE LIKE CONVECTION COULD FORM WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES OR AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
FRONT. THE BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY WEST OF THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY ABOUT
5.5-6C/KM OVER THE ALY AREA.

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. IF ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLD DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP SHEAR...AND WOULD
LIKELY BE IF A STORM SUSTAINED A TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFT FROM THE
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME DCAPES VALUES OF
GREATER THAN A 1000 J/KG FROM THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY W/SW.
OVERALL...AGREE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 GUIDANCE.
H850 TEMPS STILL IN THE 15C TO 17C RANGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID AND U80S IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 90F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. PWATS ARE
IN THE INCH TO INCH AND TWO THIRDS RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

THU NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE
IN THE H925-850 LAYER WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE
EAST. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO 12C TO 14C OVER THE FCST AREA. THE SFC
DEWPTS WILL FALL INTO M40S TO L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE
REGION...WITH LOWER TO M50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND M50S TO L60S SOUTH AND EAST.  THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE
SRN REACHES OF THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WORK WEEK TO SET UP FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. A CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN MAINE. LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH H850 TEMPS LOWERING TO 11 TO 13C OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPT...BUT IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S
TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...AND
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY FORM...AND
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME.

SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH
LABOR DAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
FRONT WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH CHANCE POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES
WELL INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY ONLY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU...BUT IFR
TO VLIFR FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND
13Z. AFTER 13Z/14Z...ALL FOG WILL HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CANADA COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTN. AT THIS POINT HAVE NOT EVEN INCLUDED
VCSH AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS AT THE TAF
SITES...THEN MAINLY CALM TONIGHT...AND BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AT 8 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY...AND THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 022022
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
422 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 422 PM EDT...A HOT AND HUMID EARLY SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON FOR
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGH TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
EAST OF CAPE COD HAS ALLOWED SFC DEWPTS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME SPOTTY U60S.

THE FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS PM/EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE
EVENING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING S/SE ACROSS
SRN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC.

SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OFF
AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN
DACKS...SRN VT...NRN TACONICS...NRN BERKS AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH
LOWER TO M60S IN MOST OTHER SPOTS. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG WAS
ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS NEAR
LAKE GEORGE/KGFL...AND PARTS OF SRN VT...AND THE BERKS.

THERE IS THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT /3-6 AM/ WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS WE KEPT IN OVER
NRN HAMILTON AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...A SHIFT IN AIR MASSES IS BRIEFLY EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE ALY FCST AREA TOMORROW TO CLOSE
THE WORK WEEK. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...THE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM...INITIALLY
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND THEN EXPANDING TO THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE MID PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS /MORE WIDESPREAD U60S TO L70S/ YIELDING
SBCAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG...WHILE THE GFS HAS SBCAPES IN THE
750-1500 J/KG RANGE OR SO WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND SHIFT DOWN
STREAM. HENCE...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 15-20 KTS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY
FURTHER SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...BUT THE SHEAR IS
WEAK FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS
OR MAINLY PULSE LIKE CONVECTION COULD FORM WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES OR AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
FRONT. THE BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY WEST OF THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY ABOUT
5.5-6C/KM OVER THE ALY AREA.

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. IF ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLD DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP SHEAR...AND WOULD
LIKELY BE IF A STORM SUSTAINED A TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFT FROM THE
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME DCAPES VALUES OF
GREATER THAN A 1000 J/KG FROM THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY W/SW.
OVERALL...AGREE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 GUIDANCE.
H850 TEMPS STILL IN THE 15C TO 17C RANGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID AND U80S IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 90F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. PWATS ARE
IN THE INCH TO INCH AND TWO THIRDS RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

THU NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE
IN THE H925-850 LAYER WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE
EAST. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO 12C TO 14C OVER THE FCST AREA. THE SFC
DEWPTS WILL FALL INTO M40S TO L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE
REGION...WITH LOWER TO M50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND M50S TO L60S SOUTH AND EAST.  THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE
SRN REACHES OF THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WORK WEEK TO SET UP FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. A CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN MAINE. LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH H850 TEMPS LOWERING TO 11 TO 13C OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPT...BUT IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S
TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...AND
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY FORM...AND
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME.

SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH
LABOR DAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
FRONT WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH CHANCE POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES
WELL INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY ONLY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU...BUT IFR
TO VLIFR FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND
13Z. AFTER 13Z/14Z...ALL FOG WILL HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CANADA COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTN. AT THIS POINT HAVE NOT EVEN INCLUDED
VCSH AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS AT THE TAF
SITES...THEN MAINLY CALM TONIGHT...AND BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AT 8 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY...AND THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021926
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
326 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AHEAD OF WHICH
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT OVER CANADA STALLS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE MAKES
FOR ANOTHER EVENING OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
TYPICALLY PRONE LOW-LYING LOCATIONS. INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL AID
IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. LIKELY TO SEE A COMBINATION OF VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO A HALF-MILE OR LESS AND LOW CLOUDS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET.
LOWS DOWN AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH A FEW SPOTS AT OR BELOW 60-DEGREES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...

MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING IMPULSE ENERGY SWEEP SE ACROSS THE
NE CONUS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF REFRESHING COOL-DRY AIRMASS BUILDING
REARWARD WILL BECOME THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD.

EVALUATING THE ENVIRONMENT: DECENT LOW-MID LEVEL THETAE CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT YIELDING A MOISTENING PROFILE OF PWATS 1.50-
1.75 INCHES. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ALOFT...INSTABILITY VALUES BUILD
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH VALUES OF AROUND 1-2K J/KG AS BOUNDARY-
LAYER LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. PER BUFKIT...CAPE PROFILES DEEP AND NOT
TOO THIN. INVERTED-V PROFILES AT THE SURFACE. YET SOME THINGS WORTH
NOTING IS THE RATHER WEAK SHEAR. BETTER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL VENTING
RESIDES MORE TOWARDS THE NE. PREDOMINANT FLOW...EVEN AT H925-7...IS
FORECAST OUT OF THE N AND THERE IS A LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE ALSO BEING WEAK AROUND 10-15 MPH BETWEEN 0-6 KM.

OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE ALL THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE THERE BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER EVENT /ECHOED BY CIPS ANALOGS/ AND NOR DOES
IT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD. CERTAINLY MORE FOCUS ALONG THE N-FACING
SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN AND AS THE COLD FRONT COLLIDES WITH EXPECTED
ONSHORE SEA-BREEZES DURING THE DAY. FOCUS ON THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E/SE-INTERIOR WITH THE COLD FRONT / SEA-BREEZE
COLLISION.

GOING BACK TO CIPS ANALOGS AND THE ENVIRONMENT EVALUATION...SHOULD
ANY STORMS BECOME STRONG CAN NOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL AND A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT THOUGH THINK THIS WILL BE ISOLATED. THE MAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DECENT MOIST PROFILE AND FORECAST
SLOW-MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. COULD BE DEALING WITH POOR-DRAINAGE /
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEATHER IMPACT EXPECTED.
A HOT AND HUMID DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF OUR AREA TOWARDS THE S/W AS A CANADIAN
HIGH AND COOL-DRY AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION. COULD BE CONTENDING
WITH CONTINUED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOWARDS MIDNIGHT BUT
DIMINISHING AS THE MAIN MID-LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES OFFSHORE AWAY FROM
BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND WE FIND OURSELVES BENEATH A DRY-SUBSIDING
AIRMASS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CRASH. LOWS DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE LOW-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL USA AND TROUGHS OVER THE MARITIMES AND PACIFIC
COAST. THIS FLATTENS TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
USA BY MIDWEEK. CONTOUR HEIGHTS RUN NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SHORTER WAVELENGTHS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST USA
WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE RIDGE FLATTENS A LITTLE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

MODEL MASS AND THERMAL FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...
EVEN WEDNESDAY ISN/T TOO BAD. USING A BLEND OF THESE WOULD BE REASONABLE.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS PRODUCES AN APPRECIABLE N-S PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH BRING INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE GRADIENT DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
EXPECT A BREEZY MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AT OR BELOW 800 MB SO
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD A DRYING AIRMASS...SO
EXPECT ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY.

MIXING REACHES TO 900 MB...AND TEMPS AT 900 MB WILL BE AT 13-15C.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO 8-10C AT 850 MB...SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.
COULD BE A FEW VALUES AT 80 IN WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE CT VALLEY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BUFFER VALUES IN EASTERN MASS.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND SHIFT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE AIR WILL BE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERHAPS SOME INCREASING CIRRUS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIXING CONTINUES TO 900 MB SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
AND TO 850 MB MONDAY. TEMPS AT THESE LEVELS...CONVERTED TO 850 MB
VALUES...TREND FROM 10-12C SAT TO 13-15C SUNDAY TO 17-18C MONDAY.
SO EXPECT VALUES U70-L80S SATURDAY...80S SUNDAY...AROUND 90
MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... A COLD FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES THE
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH THE FRONT AND MOST OF THAT IS BELOW 750
MB. SO LOOK FOR A FEW CLOUDS AND MAYBE A STRAY SHOWER LATE TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WE WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR. IFR-VLIFR FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE A REPEAT OF TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...
VFR. AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SHRA/TSRA. TEMPO MVFR IMPACTS. MAIN
THREAT +RA. PERHAPS SOME BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE N AND/OR HAIL
SHOULD ANY TSRA BECOME STRONG. THINKING ISOLATED IMPACTS. LOW
CONFIDENCE. SEA-BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS DURING THE
DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
VFR. SHRA CONCLUDING. N-WINDS PREVAILING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE FOR THE MIDDAY
PERIOD ON THURSDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY
GIVES WAY TO LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT BEHIND WHICH NE-WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. IT MAY BE WORTH
CONSIDERING BY THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WAVES COULD
REACH 5-FEET ESPECIALLY OVER THE E-WATERS. MORE IN THE OUTLOOK
DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SUB-SEVERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM BUT THE BETTER CHANCE IS ACROSS THE E/SE-INTERIOR
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY... INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
FROM CANADA. MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT WINDS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY DRIVE SEA HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
WIND AND SEAS DIMINISH TO LIGHT SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 021926
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
326 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AHEAD OF WHICH
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT OVER CANADA STALLS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE MAKES
FOR ANOTHER EVENING OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
TYPICALLY PRONE LOW-LYING LOCATIONS. INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL AID
IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. LIKELY TO SEE A COMBINATION OF VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO A HALF-MILE OR LESS AND LOW CLOUDS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET.
LOWS DOWN AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH A FEW SPOTS AT OR BELOW 60-DEGREES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...

MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING IMPULSE ENERGY SWEEP SE ACROSS THE
NE CONUS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF REFRESHING COOL-DRY AIRMASS BUILDING
REARWARD WILL BECOME THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD.

EVALUATING THE ENVIRONMENT: DECENT LOW-MID LEVEL THETAE CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT YIELDING A MOISTENING PROFILE OF PWATS 1.50-
1.75 INCHES. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ALOFT...INSTABILITY VALUES BUILD
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH VALUES OF AROUND 1-2K J/KG AS BOUNDARY-
LAYER LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. PER BUFKIT...CAPE PROFILES DEEP AND NOT
TOO THIN. INVERTED-V PROFILES AT THE SURFACE. YET SOME THINGS WORTH
NOTING IS THE RATHER WEAK SHEAR. BETTER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL VENTING
RESIDES MORE TOWARDS THE NE. PREDOMINANT FLOW...EVEN AT H925-7...IS
FORECAST OUT OF THE N AND THERE IS A LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE ALSO BEING WEAK AROUND 10-15 MPH BETWEEN 0-6 KM.

OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE ALL THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE THERE BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER EVENT /ECHOED BY CIPS ANALOGS/ AND NOR DOES
IT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD. CERTAINLY MORE FOCUS ALONG THE N-FACING
SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN AND AS THE COLD FRONT COLLIDES WITH EXPECTED
ONSHORE SEA-BREEZES DURING THE DAY. FOCUS ON THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E/SE-INTERIOR WITH THE COLD FRONT / SEA-BREEZE
COLLISION.

GOING BACK TO CIPS ANALOGS AND THE ENVIRONMENT EVALUATION...SHOULD
ANY STORMS BECOME STRONG CAN NOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL AND A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT THOUGH THINK THIS WILL BE ISOLATED. THE MAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DECENT MOIST PROFILE AND FORECAST
SLOW-MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. COULD BE DEALING WITH POOR-DRAINAGE /
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEATHER IMPACT EXPECTED.
A HOT AND HUMID DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF OUR AREA TOWARDS THE S/W AS A CANADIAN
HIGH AND COOL-DRY AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION. COULD BE CONTENDING
WITH CONTINUED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOWARDS MIDNIGHT BUT
DIMINISHING AS THE MAIN MID-LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES OFFSHORE AWAY FROM
BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND WE FIND OURSELVES BENEATH A DRY-SUBSIDING
AIRMASS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CRASH. LOWS DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE LOW-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL USA AND TROUGHS OVER THE MARITIMES AND PACIFIC
COAST. THIS FLATTENS TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
USA BY MIDWEEK. CONTOUR HEIGHTS RUN NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SHORTER WAVELENGTHS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST USA
WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE RIDGE FLATTENS A LITTLE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

MODEL MASS AND THERMAL FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...
EVEN WEDNESDAY ISN/T TOO BAD. USING A BLEND OF THESE WOULD BE REASONABLE.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS PRODUCES AN APPRECIABLE N-S PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH BRING INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE GRADIENT DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
EXPECT A BREEZY MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AT OR BELOW 800 MB SO
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD A DRYING AIRMASS...SO
EXPECT ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY.

MIXING REACHES TO 900 MB...AND TEMPS AT 900 MB WILL BE AT 13-15C.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO 8-10C AT 850 MB...SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.
COULD BE A FEW VALUES AT 80 IN WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE CT VALLEY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BUFFER VALUES IN EASTERN MASS.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND SHIFT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE AIR WILL BE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERHAPS SOME INCREASING CIRRUS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIXING CONTINUES TO 900 MB SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
AND TO 850 MB MONDAY. TEMPS AT THESE LEVELS...CONVERTED TO 850 MB
VALUES...TREND FROM 10-12C SAT TO 13-15C SUNDAY TO 17-18C MONDAY.
SO EXPECT VALUES U70-L80S SATURDAY...80S SUNDAY...AROUND 90
MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... A COLD FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES THE
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH THE FRONT AND MOST OF THAT IS BELOW 750
MB. SO LOOK FOR A FEW CLOUDS AND MAYBE A STRAY SHOWER LATE TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WE WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR. IFR-VLIFR FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE A REPEAT OF TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...
VFR. AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SHRA/TSRA. TEMPO MVFR IMPACTS. MAIN
THREAT +RA. PERHAPS SOME BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE N AND/OR HAIL
SHOULD ANY TSRA BECOME STRONG. THINKING ISOLATED IMPACTS. LOW
CONFIDENCE. SEA-BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS DURING THE
DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
VFR. SHRA CONCLUDING. N-WINDS PREVAILING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE FOR THE MIDDAY
PERIOD ON THURSDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY
GIVES WAY TO LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT BEHIND WHICH NE-WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. IT MAY BE WORTH
CONSIDERING BY THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WAVES COULD
REACH 5-FEET ESPECIALLY OVER THE E-WATERS. MORE IN THE OUTLOOK
DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SUB-SEVERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM BUT THE BETTER CHANCE IS ACROSS THE E/SE-INTERIOR
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY... INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
FROM CANADA. MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT WINDS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY DRIVE SEA HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
WIND AND SEAS DIMINISH TO LIGHT SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 021926
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
326 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AHEAD OF WHICH
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT OVER CANADA STALLS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE MAKES
FOR ANOTHER EVENING OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
TYPICALLY PRONE LOW-LYING LOCATIONS. INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL AID
IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. LIKELY TO SEE A COMBINATION OF VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO A HALF-MILE OR LESS AND LOW CLOUDS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET.
LOWS DOWN AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH A FEW SPOTS AT OR BELOW 60-DEGREES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...

MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING IMPULSE ENERGY SWEEP SE ACROSS THE
NE CONUS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF REFRESHING COOL-DRY AIRMASS BUILDING
REARWARD WILL BECOME THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD.

EVALUATING THE ENVIRONMENT: DECENT LOW-MID LEVEL THETAE CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT YIELDING A MOISTENING PROFILE OF PWATS 1.50-
1.75 INCHES. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ALOFT...INSTABILITY VALUES BUILD
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH VALUES OF AROUND 1-2K J/KG AS BOUNDARY-
LAYER LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. PER BUFKIT...CAPE PROFILES DEEP AND NOT
TOO THIN. INVERTED-V PROFILES AT THE SURFACE. YET SOME THINGS WORTH
NOTING IS THE RATHER WEAK SHEAR. BETTER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL VENTING
RESIDES MORE TOWARDS THE NE. PREDOMINANT FLOW...EVEN AT H925-7...IS
FORECAST OUT OF THE N AND THERE IS A LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE ALSO BEING WEAK AROUND 10-15 MPH BETWEEN 0-6 KM.

OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE ALL THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE THERE BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER EVENT /ECHOED BY CIPS ANALOGS/ AND NOR DOES
IT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD. CERTAINLY MORE FOCUS ALONG THE N-FACING
SLOPES OF HIGH TERRAIN AND AS THE COLD FRONT COLLIDES WITH EXPECTED
ONSHORE SEA-BREEZES DURING THE DAY. FOCUS ON THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E/SE-INTERIOR WITH THE COLD FRONT / SEA-BREEZE
COLLISION.

GOING BACK TO CIPS ANALOGS AND THE ENVIRONMENT EVALUATION...SHOULD
ANY STORMS BECOME STRONG CAN NOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL AND A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT THOUGH THINK THIS WILL BE ISOLATED. THE MAIN THREAT
APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DECENT MOIST PROFILE AND FORECAST
SLOW-MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. COULD BE DEALING WITH POOR-DRAINAGE /
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEATHER IMPACT EXPECTED.
A HOT AND HUMID DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF OUR AREA TOWARDS THE S/W AS A CANADIAN
HIGH AND COOL-DRY AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION. COULD BE CONTENDING
WITH CONTINUED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOWARDS MIDNIGHT BUT
DIMINISHING AS THE MAIN MID-LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES OFFSHORE AWAY FROM
BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND WE FIND OURSELVES BENEATH A DRY-SUBSIDING
AIRMASS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CRASH. LOWS DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE LOW-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL USA AND TROUGHS OVER THE MARITIMES AND PACIFIC
COAST. THIS FLATTENS TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
USA BY MIDWEEK. CONTOUR HEIGHTS RUN NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SHORTER WAVELENGTHS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST USA
WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE RIDGE FLATTENS A LITTLE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

MODEL MASS AND THERMAL FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...
EVEN WEDNESDAY ISN/T TOO BAD. USING A BLEND OF THESE WOULD BE REASONABLE.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS PRODUCES AN APPRECIABLE N-S PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH BRING INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE GRADIENT DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
EXPECT A BREEZY MORNING FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AT OR BELOW 800 MB SO
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD A DRYING AIRMASS...SO
EXPECT ANY MORNING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY.

MIXING REACHES TO 900 MB...AND TEMPS AT 900 MB WILL BE AT 13-15C.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO 8-10C AT 850 MB...SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.
COULD BE A FEW VALUES AT 80 IN WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE CT VALLEY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BUFFER VALUES IN EASTERN MASS.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND SHIFT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE AIR WILL BE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERHAPS SOME INCREASING CIRRUS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIXING CONTINUES TO 900 MB SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
AND TO 850 MB MONDAY. TEMPS AT THESE LEVELS...CONVERTED TO 850 MB
VALUES...TREND FROM 10-12C SAT TO 13-15C SUNDAY TO 17-18C MONDAY.
SO EXPECT VALUES U70-L80S SATURDAY...80S SUNDAY...AROUND 90
MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... A COLD FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES THE
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH THE FRONT AND MOST OF THAT IS BELOW 750
MB. SO LOOK FOR A FEW CLOUDS AND MAYBE A STRAY SHOWER LATE TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WE WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR. IFR-VLIFR FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE A REPEAT OF TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...
VFR. AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SHRA/TSRA. TEMPO MVFR IMPACTS. MAIN
THREAT +RA. PERHAPS SOME BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE N AND/OR HAIL
SHOULD ANY TSRA BECOME STRONG. THINKING ISOLATED IMPACTS. LOW
CONFIDENCE. SEA-BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS DURING THE
DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
VFR. SHRA CONCLUDING. N-WINDS PREVAILING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE FOR THE MIDDAY
PERIOD ON THURSDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY
GIVES WAY TO LIGHT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT BEHIND WHICH NE-WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. IT MAY BE WORTH
CONSIDERING BY THIS TIME A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WAVES COULD
REACH 5-FEET ESPECIALLY OVER THE E-WATERS. MORE IN THE OUTLOOK
DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SUB-SEVERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM BUT THE BETTER CHANCE IS ACROSS THE E/SE-INTERIOR
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY... INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
FROM CANADA. MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT WINDS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH MAY DRIVE SEA HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
WIND AND SEAS DIMINISH TO LIGHT SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-
MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 021734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS INTO TOMORROW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 122 PM EDT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD HOT AND DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
AT THE SFC...AN ANTICYCLONE EAST OF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO FUNNEL
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE 60S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY CHANGES TO HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMP
AND SKY TRENDS THIS UPDATE. FEW-SCT CUMULUS HAVE FORMED WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING. A PRONOUNCED CAP BTWN ROUGHLY 850-775 HPA ON THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING WILL PROHIBIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND SRN
QUEBEC. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 85-90F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS AND
OVER THE HILLTOWNS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES
WELL INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY ONLY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU...BUT IFR
TO VLIFR FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND
13Z. AFTER 13Z/14Z...ALL FOG WILL HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CANADA COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTN. AT THIS POINT HAVE NOT EVEN INCLUDED
VCSH AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z THURSDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS AT THE TAF
SITES...THEN MAINLY CALM TONIGHT...AND BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AT 8 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 021723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS INTO TOMORROW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 122 PM EDT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD HOT AND DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
AT THE SFC...AN ANTICYCLONE EAST OF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO FUNNEL
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE 60S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY CHANGES TO HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMP
AND SKY TRENDS THIS UPDATE. FEW-SCT CUMULUS HAVE FORMED WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING. A PRONOUNCED CAP BTWN ROUGHLY 850-775 HPA ON THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING WILL PROHIBIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND SRN
QUEBEC. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 85-90F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS AND
OVER THE HILLTOWNS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL-KPSF WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND JOIN THE
VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB-KPOU.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM INTO MID
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 021723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS INTO TOMORROW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 122 PM EDT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD HOT AND DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
AT THE SFC...AN ANTICYCLONE EAST OF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO FUNNEL
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE 60S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY CHANGES TO HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMP
AND SKY TRENDS THIS UPDATE. FEW-SCT CUMULUS HAVE FORMED WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING. A PRONOUNCED CAP BTWN ROUGHLY 850-775 HPA ON THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING WILL PROHIBIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND SRN
QUEBEC. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 85-90F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS AND
OVER THE HILLTOWNS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL-KPSF WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND JOIN THE
VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB-KPOU.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM INTO MID
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 021723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS INTO TOMORROW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 122 PM EDT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD HOT AND DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
AT THE SFC...AN ANTICYCLONE EAST OF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO FUNNEL
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE 60S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY CHANGES TO HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMP
AND SKY TRENDS THIS UPDATE. FEW-SCT CUMULUS HAVE FORMED WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING. A PRONOUNCED CAP BTWN ROUGHLY 850-775 HPA ON THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING WILL PROHIBIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND SRN
QUEBEC. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 85-90F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS AND
OVER THE HILLTOWNS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL-KPSF WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND JOIN THE
VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB-KPOU.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM INTO MID
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 021723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS INTO TOMORROW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 122 PM EDT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD HOT AND DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
AT THE SFC...AN ANTICYCLONE EAST OF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO FUNNEL
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE 60S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY CHANGES TO HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMP
AND SKY TRENDS THIS UPDATE. FEW-SCT CUMULUS HAVE FORMED WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING. A PRONOUNCED CAP BTWN ROUGHLY 850-775 HPA ON THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING WILL PROHIBIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND SRN
QUEBEC. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 85-90F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS AND
OVER THE HILLTOWNS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL-KPSF WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND JOIN THE
VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB-KPOU.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM INTO MID
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 021723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS INTO TOMORROW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 122 PM EDT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD HOT AND DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
AT THE SFC...AN ANTICYCLONE EAST OF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO FUNNEL
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE 60S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY CHANGES TO HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMP
AND SKY TRENDS THIS UPDATE. FEW-SCT CUMULUS HAVE FORMED WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING. A PRONOUNCED CAP BTWN ROUGHLY 850-775 HPA ON THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING WILL PROHIBIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND SRN
QUEBEC. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 85-90F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS AND
OVER THE HILLTOWNS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL-KPSF WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND JOIN THE
VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB-KPOU.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM INTO MID
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 021444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS...OR STRATUS
TRANSITIONING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS STILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM
RAPIDLY AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY.
GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO BE BETWEEN 80 AND 90 WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT GREATER THAN
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. THEREFORE...WE
ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND
80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT
HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90 ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL-KPSF WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND JOIN THE
VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB-KPOU.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM INTO MID
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 021444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS...OR STRATUS
TRANSITIONING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS STILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM
RAPIDLY AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY.
GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO BE BETWEEN 80 AND 90 WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT GREATER THAN
TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. THEREFORE...WE
ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND
80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT
HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90 ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL-KPSF WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND JOIN THE
VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB-KPOU.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM INTO MID
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021420
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

VERY WARM WEATHER TODAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A
TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND LABOR DAY WEEKEND. OTHER THAN THE RISK OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

DAYTIME MIXING PROCEEDING ALLOWING FOR FOG TO BURN OFF. FAIRLY
WARM AND DRY AIRMASS ALOFT /NEARLY +20C AT H85 PER CHATHAM/.
SHOULD WARM UP EASILY INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S. MAY NOT
REMAIN CONSIDERABLY HUMID. AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...WITH DEEP-LAYER
MIXING PROCEEDING...SAW DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 50S FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. LIKELY TO SEE A REPEAT TODAY. SO NO MUCH ADJUSTMENT
WITH THE REAL-FEEL / HEAT INDEX VALUES.

SEA-BREEZE CERTAINLY ALONG THE S-COAST...BUT COULD BE A BIT HARD
TO COME BY ALONG THE E-COAST WITH SOME DECENT W-FLOW ALOFT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE IT EDGE IN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E-COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...
ASIDE FROM A FEW BUILDING CI...CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING POSSIBLE. SFC DWPTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO EXPECT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK FOR LATE NIGHT
FOG DEVELOPMENT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...PARTICULARLY IN GRASSY
VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. MINS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

THU...
COLD FRONT WILL ALMOST BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION AS EASTERN TROF
DEEPENS. NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO ABOUT 1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER
NORMALS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PASSING BOUNDARY...EXPECT
AT LEAST A RISK SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

T-STORM RISK IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES
REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALLOW FOR WIDER CAPE
PROFILES THAN WED. SFC VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 1000J/KG TO 2000
FROM THE LESS ROBUST ECMWF TO THE WETTER/MORE UNSTABLE NAM. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...AND SHEAR IS ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 10-20KT
RANGE. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO DRIVE
UPDRAFTS. ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ITS LIKELY TO LIMIT
SEVERITY...WHICH CORRELATES WELL THE SWODY2 FROM SPC. STILL NOTING
SOME 400-600J/KG HAIL CAPES THANKS TO THE WIDE CAPE PROFILES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE APPROACH.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES OTHERWISE...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN THE MID 80S AND LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD DAYS/COOL NIGHTS AND LESS HUMID FRI AND SAT
* WARMING TREND SUN AND MON
* LOW RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS NEXT TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BRIEF MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR RESULTS IN
1027 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND
FRI AND SAT. THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL YIELD MILD DAYS/COOL NIGHTS
AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY FOR OUR REGION. HOWEVER UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OF +2 STD DEVIATIONS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO FRI
BUILDING EAST INTO QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN AND MON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK TO 85 TO 90 SUN AND MON...LIKELY LINGERING INTO TUE AS
WELL. THIS RIDGING WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN STREAM JET AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL PASSAGES WELL NW OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUS OTHER THAN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS THU DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST NORTHEAST RIDGE LIKELY BREAKS DOWN EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER AIR PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RISK OF SHOWERS/T-
STORMS IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME OF NEXT WEEK.

DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...LEFTOVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE EVENING AS COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO DEPART. A FEW HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE GIVEN PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES /+1 STD DEVIATIONS
FROM CLIMO/ MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN
SLOW MOVING STORMS. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN 09Z-12Z FRI AS POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS INVADES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

FRI...NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE /COOLER AND LESS HUMID/ AS 1025 MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A GUSTY NE WIND WILL ACCOMPANY
THE COOLER TEMPS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU CLOUDS. NAM HAS CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER THAN
THE GFS. WILL HEDGE TOWARD A TREND OF INCREASING SUNSHINE AS FRI
PROGRESSES WITH COLUMN DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

FRI NIGHT...MUCH COOLER WITH DRY AIRMASS/LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. SOME OF THE COLDER MOS DATA SETS SUGGEST U40S ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS /MVY...I495 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF CT AND MA/.  GIVEN SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAVE BLENDED IN THIS COOLER GUIDANCE.

SAT...AFTER A COOL START ABUNDANT SUNSHINE RESULTS IN TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S AND L80S.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH DEW PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS RESULTS IN
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO 85-90 AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...WARM WEATHER MAY LINGER BUT ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE BOTH HINT AT A FRONTAL PASSAGE POSSIBLE AND YIELDING THE
RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. A MODEL BLEND OF POPS OFFERS SLIGHT CHANCE
/15%/...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

15Z UPDATE...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR. IFR-VLIFR FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS.

THURSDAY...
VFR. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. TEMPO MVFR IMPACTS. MAIN THREAT +RA.
PERHAPS SOME BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE N AND/OR HAIL SHOULD ANY TSRA
BECOME STRONG. THINKING ISOLATED IMPACTS. LOW CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HAVE SE ORIENTED SEA
BREEZE BEGINNING LATER...ENDING EARLIER THAN USUAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE MARGINAL
MVFR-VFR CIGS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN CLEARING.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1030 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER PREVAILS INTO THU. SEAS BELOW 4 FT
AND WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 KT. SOME LATE NIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WATERS WITH LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT/FRI...A BURST OF NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING...STRONGEST WINDS EASTERN MA WATERS ALONG WITH LARGEST
SEAS.

SAT/SUN...LEFTOVER E SWELLS ERODE/DECAY SAT AND GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
WINDS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 021420
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

VERY WARM WEATHER TODAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A
TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND LABOR DAY WEEKEND. OTHER THAN THE RISK OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

DAYTIME MIXING PROCEEDING ALLOWING FOR FOG TO BURN OFF. FAIRLY
WARM AND DRY AIRMASS ALOFT /NEARLY +20C AT H85 PER CHATHAM/.
SHOULD WARM UP EASILY INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S. MAY NOT
REMAIN CONSIDERABLY HUMID. AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...WITH DEEP-LAYER
MIXING PROCEEDING...SAW DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 50S FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. LIKELY TO SEE A REPEAT TODAY. SO NO MUCH ADJUSTMENT
WITH THE REAL-FEEL / HEAT INDEX VALUES.

SEA-BREEZE CERTAINLY ALONG THE S-COAST...BUT COULD BE A BIT HARD
TO COME BY ALONG THE E-COAST WITH SOME DECENT W-FLOW ALOFT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE IT EDGE IN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E-COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...
ASIDE FROM A FEW BUILDING CI...CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING POSSIBLE. SFC DWPTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO EXPECT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK FOR LATE NIGHT
FOG DEVELOPMENT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...PARTICULARLY IN GRASSY
VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. MINS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

THU...
COLD FRONT WILL ALMOST BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION AS EASTERN TROF
DEEPENS. NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO ABOUT 1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER
NORMALS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PASSING BOUNDARY...EXPECT
AT LEAST A RISK SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

T-STORM RISK IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES
REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALLOW FOR WIDER CAPE
PROFILES THAN WED. SFC VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 1000J/KG TO 2000
FROM THE LESS ROBUST ECMWF TO THE WETTER/MORE UNSTABLE NAM. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...AND SHEAR IS ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 10-20KT
RANGE. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO DRIVE
UPDRAFTS. ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ITS LIKELY TO LIMIT
SEVERITY...WHICH CORRELATES WELL THE SWODY2 FROM SPC. STILL NOTING
SOME 400-600J/KG HAIL CAPES THANKS TO THE WIDE CAPE PROFILES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE APPROACH.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES OTHERWISE...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN THE MID 80S AND LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD DAYS/COOL NIGHTS AND LESS HUMID FRI AND SAT
* WARMING TREND SUN AND MON
* LOW RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS NEXT TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BRIEF MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR RESULTS IN
1027 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND
FRI AND SAT. THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL YIELD MILD DAYS/COOL NIGHTS
AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY FOR OUR REGION. HOWEVER UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OF +2 STD DEVIATIONS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO FRI
BUILDING EAST INTO QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN AND MON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK TO 85 TO 90 SUN AND MON...LIKELY LINGERING INTO TUE AS
WELL. THIS RIDGING WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN STREAM JET AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL PASSAGES WELL NW OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUS OTHER THAN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS THU DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST NORTHEAST RIDGE LIKELY BREAKS DOWN EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER AIR PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RISK OF SHOWERS/T-
STORMS IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME OF NEXT WEEK.

DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...LEFTOVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE EVENING AS COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO DEPART. A FEW HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE GIVEN PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES /+1 STD DEVIATIONS
FROM CLIMO/ MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN
SLOW MOVING STORMS. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN 09Z-12Z FRI AS POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS INVADES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

FRI...NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE /COOLER AND LESS HUMID/ AS 1025 MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A GUSTY NE WIND WILL ACCOMPANY
THE COOLER TEMPS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU CLOUDS. NAM HAS CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER THAN
THE GFS. WILL HEDGE TOWARD A TREND OF INCREASING SUNSHINE AS FRI
PROGRESSES WITH COLUMN DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

FRI NIGHT...MUCH COOLER WITH DRY AIRMASS/LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. SOME OF THE COLDER MOS DATA SETS SUGGEST U40S ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS /MVY...I495 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF CT AND MA/.  GIVEN SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAVE BLENDED IN THIS COOLER GUIDANCE.

SAT...AFTER A COOL START ABUNDANT SUNSHINE RESULTS IN TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S AND L80S.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH DEW PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS RESULTS IN
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO 85-90 AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...WARM WEATHER MAY LINGER BUT ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE BOTH HINT AT A FRONTAL PASSAGE POSSIBLE AND YIELDING THE
RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. A MODEL BLEND OF POPS OFFERS SLIGHT CHANCE
/15%/...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

15Z UPDATE...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR. IFR-VLIFR FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS.

THURSDAY...
VFR. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. TEMPO MVFR IMPACTS. MAIN THREAT +RA.
PERHAPS SOME BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE N AND/OR HAIL SHOULD ANY TSRA
BECOME STRONG. THINKING ISOLATED IMPACTS. LOW CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HAVE SE ORIENTED SEA
BREEZE BEGINNING LATER...ENDING EARLIER THAN USUAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE MARGINAL
MVFR-VFR CIGS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN CLEARING.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1030 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER PREVAILS INTO THU. SEAS BELOW 4 FT
AND WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 KT. SOME LATE NIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WATERS WITH LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT/FRI...A BURST OF NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING...STRONGEST WINDS EASTERN MA WATERS ALONG WITH LARGEST
SEAS.

SAT/SUN...LEFTOVER E SWELLS ERODE/DECAY SAT AND GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
WINDS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 021420
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

VERY WARM WEATHER TODAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A
TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND LABOR DAY WEEKEND. OTHER THAN THE RISK OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

DAYTIME MIXING PROCEEDING ALLOWING FOR FOG TO BURN OFF. FAIRLY
WARM AND DRY AIRMASS ALOFT /NEARLY +20C AT H85 PER CHATHAM/.
SHOULD WARM UP EASILY INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S. MAY NOT
REMAIN CONSIDERABLY HUMID. AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...WITH DEEP-LAYER
MIXING PROCEEDING...SAW DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 50S FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. LIKELY TO SEE A REPEAT TODAY. SO NO MUCH ADJUSTMENT
WITH THE REAL-FEEL / HEAT INDEX VALUES.

SEA-BREEZE CERTAINLY ALONG THE S-COAST...BUT COULD BE A BIT HARD
TO COME BY ALONG THE E-COAST WITH SOME DECENT W-FLOW ALOFT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE IT EDGE IN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E-COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...
ASIDE FROM A FEW BUILDING CI...CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING POSSIBLE. SFC DWPTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO EXPECT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK FOR LATE NIGHT
FOG DEVELOPMENT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...PARTICULARLY IN GRASSY
VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. MINS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

THU...
COLD FRONT WILL ALMOST BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION AS EASTERN TROF
DEEPENS. NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO ABOUT 1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER
NORMALS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PASSING BOUNDARY...EXPECT
AT LEAST A RISK SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

T-STORM RISK IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES
REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALLOW FOR WIDER CAPE
PROFILES THAN WED. SFC VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 1000J/KG TO 2000
FROM THE LESS ROBUST ECMWF TO THE WETTER/MORE UNSTABLE NAM. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...AND SHEAR IS ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 10-20KT
RANGE. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO DRIVE
UPDRAFTS. ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ITS LIKELY TO LIMIT
SEVERITY...WHICH CORRELATES WELL THE SWODY2 FROM SPC. STILL NOTING
SOME 400-600J/KG HAIL CAPES THANKS TO THE WIDE CAPE PROFILES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE APPROACH.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES OTHERWISE...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN THE MID 80S AND LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD DAYS/COOL NIGHTS AND LESS HUMID FRI AND SAT
* WARMING TREND SUN AND MON
* LOW RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS NEXT TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BRIEF MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR RESULTS IN
1027 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND
FRI AND SAT. THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL YIELD MILD DAYS/COOL NIGHTS
AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY FOR OUR REGION. HOWEVER UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OF +2 STD DEVIATIONS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO FRI
BUILDING EAST INTO QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN AND MON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK TO 85 TO 90 SUN AND MON...LIKELY LINGERING INTO TUE AS
WELL. THIS RIDGING WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN STREAM JET AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL PASSAGES WELL NW OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUS OTHER THAN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS THU DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST NORTHEAST RIDGE LIKELY BREAKS DOWN EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER AIR PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RISK OF SHOWERS/T-
STORMS IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME OF NEXT WEEK.

DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...LEFTOVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE EVENING AS COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO DEPART. A FEW HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE GIVEN PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES /+1 STD DEVIATIONS
FROM CLIMO/ MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN
SLOW MOVING STORMS. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN 09Z-12Z FRI AS POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS INVADES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

FRI...NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE /COOLER AND LESS HUMID/ AS 1025 MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A GUSTY NE WIND WILL ACCOMPANY
THE COOLER TEMPS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU CLOUDS. NAM HAS CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER THAN
THE GFS. WILL HEDGE TOWARD A TREND OF INCREASING SUNSHINE AS FRI
PROGRESSES WITH COLUMN DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

FRI NIGHT...MUCH COOLER WITH DRY AIRMASS/LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. SOME OF THE COLDER MOS DATA SETS SUGGEST U40S ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS /MVY...I495 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF CT AND MA/.  GIVEN SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAVE BLENDED IN THIS COOLER GUIDANCE.

SAT...AFTER A COOL START ABUNDANT SUNSHINE RESULTS IN TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S AND L80S.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH DEW PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS RESULTS IN
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO 85-90 AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...WARM WEATHER MAY LINGER BUT ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE BOTH HINT AT A FRONTAL PASSAGE POSSIBLE AND YIELDING THE
RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. A MODEL BLEND OF POPS OFFERS SLIGHT CHANCE
/15%/...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

15Z UPDATE...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR. IFR-VLIFR FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS.

THURSDAY...
VFR. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. TEMPO MVFR IMPACTS. MAIN THREAT +RA.
PERHAPS SOME BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE N AND/OR HAIL SHOULD ANY TSRA
BECOME STRONG. THINKING ISOLATED IMPACTS. LOW CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HAVE SE ORIENTED SEA
BREEZE BEGINNING LATER...ENDING EARLIER THAN USUAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE MARGINAL
MVFR-VFR CIGS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN CLEARING.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1030 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER PREVAILS INTO THU. SEAS BELOW 4 FT
AND WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 KT. SOME LATE NIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WATERS WITH LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT/FRI...A BURST OF NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING...STRONGEST WINDS EASTERN MA WATERS ALONG WITH LARGEST
SEAS.

SAT/SUN...LEFTOVER E SWELLS ERODE/DECAY SAT AND GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
WINDS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 021420
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

VERY WARM WEATHER TODAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A
TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND LABOR DAY WEEKEND. OTHER THAN THE RISK OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

DAYTIME MIXING PROCEEDING ALLOWING FOR FOG TO BURN OFF. FAIRLY
WARM AND DRY AIRMASS ALOFT /NEARLY +20C AT H85 PER CHATHAM/.
SHOULD WARM UP EASILY INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S. MAY NOT
REMAIN CONSIDERABLY HUMID. AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...WITH DEEP-LAYER
MIXING PROCEEDING...SAW DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 50S FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. LIKELY TO SEE A REPEAT TODAY. SO NO MUCH ADJUSTMENT
WITH THE REAL-FEEL / HEAT INDEX VALUES.

SEA-BREEZE CERTAINLY ALONG THE S-COAST...BUT COULD BE A BIT HARD
TO COME BY ALONG THE E-COAST WITH SOME DECENT W-FLOW ALOFT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE IT EDGE IN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E-COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...
ASIDE FROM A FEW BUILDING CI...CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING POSSIBLE. SFC DWPTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO EXPECT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK FOR LATE NIGHT
FOG DEVELOPMENT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...PARTICULARLY IN GRASSY
VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. MINS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

THU...
COLD FRONT WILL ALMOST BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION AS EASTERN TROF
DEEPENS. NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO ABOUT 1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER
NORMALS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PASSING BOUNDARY...EXPECT
AT LEAST A RISK SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

T-STORM RISK IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES
REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALLOW FOR WIDER CAPE
PROFILES THAN WED. SFC VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 1000J/KG TO 2000
FROM THE LESS ROBUST ECMWF TO THE WETTER/MORE UNSTABLE NAM. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...AND SHEAR IS ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 10-20KT
RANGE. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO DRIVE
UPDRAFTS. ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ITS LIKELY TO LIMIT
SEVERITY...WHICH CORRELATES WELL THE SWODY2 FROM SPC. STILL NOTING
SOME 400-600J/KG HAIL CAPES THANKS TO THE WIDE CAPE PROFILES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE APPROACH.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES OTHERWISE...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN THE MID 80S AND LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD DAYS/COOL NIGHTS AND LESS HUMID FRI AND SAT
* WARMING TREND SUN AND MON
* LOW RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS NEXT TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BRIEF MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR RESULTS IN
1027 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND
FRI AND SAT. THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL YIELD MILD DAYS/COOL NIGHTS
AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY FOR OUR REGION. HOWEVER UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OF +2 STD DEVIATIONS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO FRI
BUILDING EAST INTO QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN AND MON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK TO 85 TO 90 SUN AND MON...LIKELY LINGERING INTO TUE AS
WELL. THIS RIDGING WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN STREAM JET AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL PASSAGES WELL NW OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUS OTHER THAN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS THU DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST NORTHEAST RIDGE LIKELY BREAKS DOWN EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER AIR PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RISK OF SHOWERS/T-
STORMS IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME OF NEXT WEEK.

DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...LEFTOVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE EVENING AS COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO DEPART. A FEW HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE GIVEN PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES /+1 STD DEVIATIONS
FROM CLIMO/ MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN
SLOW MOVING STORMS. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN 09Z-12Z FRI AS POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS INVADES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

FRI...NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE /COOLER AND LESS HUMID/ AS 1025 MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A GUSTY NE WIND WILL ACCOMPANY
THE COOLER TEMPS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU CLOUDS. NAM HAS CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER THAN
THE GFS. WILL HEDGE TOWARD A TREND OF INCREASING SUNSHINE AS FRI
PROGRESSES WITH COLUMN DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

FRI NIGHT...MUCH COOLER WITH DRY AIRMASS/LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. SOME OF THE COLDER MOS DATA SETS SUGGEST U40S ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS /MVY...I495 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF CT AND MA/.  GIVEN SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAVE BLENDED IN THIS COOLER GUIDANCE.

SAT...AFTER A COOL START ABUNDANT SUNSHINE RESULTS IN TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S AND L80S.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH DEW PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS RESULTS IN
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO 85-90 AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...WARM WEATHER MAY LINGER BUT ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE BOTH HINT AT A FRONTAL PASSAGE POSSIBLE AND YIELDING THE
RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. A MODEL BLEND OF POPS OFFERS SLIGHT CHANCE
/15%/...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

15Z UPDATE...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR. IFR-VLIFR FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS.

THURSDAY...
VFR. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. TEMPO MVFR IMPACTS. MAIN THREAT +RA.
PERHAPS SOME BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE N AND/OR HAIL SHOULD ANY TSRA
BECOME STRONG. THINKING ISOLATED IMPACTS. LOW CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HAVE SE ORIENTED SEA
BREEZE BEGINNING LATER...ENDING EARLIER THAN USUAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE MARGINAL
MVFR-VFR CIGS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN CLEARING.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1030 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER PREVAILS INTO THU. SEAS BELOW 4 FT
AND WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 KT. SOME LATE NIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WATERS WITH LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT/FRI...A BURST OF NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING...STRONGEST WINDS EASTERN MA WATERS ALONG WITH LARGEST
SEAS.

SAT/SUN...LEFTOVER E SWELLS ERODE/DECAY SAT AND GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
WINDS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 021420
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

VERY WARM WEATHER TODAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A
TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND LABOR DAY WEEKEND. OTHER THAN THE RISK OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

DAYTIME MIXING PROCEEDING ALLOWING FOR FOG TO BURN OFF. FAIRLY
WARM AND DRY AIRMASS ALOFT /NEARLY +20C AT H85 PER CHATHAM/.
SHOULD WARM UP EASILY INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S. MAY NOT
REMAIN CONSIDERABLY HUMID. AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...WITH DEEP-LAYER
MIXING PROCEEDING...SAW DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 50S FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. LIKELY TO SEE A REPEAT TODAY. SO NO MUCH ADJUSTMENT
WITH THE REAL-FEEL / HEAT INDEX VALUES.

SEA-BREEZE CERTAINLY ALONG THE S-COAST...BUT COULD BE A BIT HARD
TO COME BY ALONG THE E-COAST WITH SOME DECENT W-FLOW ALOFT. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE IT EDGE IN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E-COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...
ASIDE FROM A FEW BUILDING CI...CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING POSSIBLE. SFC DWPTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO EXPECT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK FOR LATE NIGHT
FOG DEVELOPMENT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...PARTICULARLY IN GRASSY
VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. MINS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

THU...
COLD FRONT WILL ALMOST BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION AS EASTERN TROF
DEEPENS. NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO ABOUT 1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER
NORMALS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PASSING BOUNDARY...EXPECT
AT LEAST A RISK SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

T-STORM RISK IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES
REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALLOW FOR WIDER CAPE
PROFILES THAN WED. SFC VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 1000J/KG TO 2000
FROM THE LESS ROBUST ECMWF TO THE WETTER/MORE UNSTABLE NAM. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...AND SHEAR IS ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 10-20KT
RANGE. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO DRIVE
UPDRAFTS. ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ITS LIKELY TO LIMIT
SEVERITY...WHICH CORRELATES WELL THE SWODY2 FROM SPC. STILL NOTING
SOME 400-600J/KG HAIL CAPES THANKS TO THE WIDE CAPE PROFILES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE APPROACH.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES OTHERWISE...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN THE MID 80S AND LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD DAYS/COOL NIGHTS AND LESS HUMID FRI AND SAT
* WARMING TREND SUN AND MON
* LOW RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS NEXT TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BRIEF MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR RESULTS IN
1027 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND
FRI AND SAT. THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL YIELD MILD DAYS/COOL NIGHTS
AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY FOR OUR REGION. HOWEVER UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OF +2 STD DEVIATIONS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO FRI
BUILDING EAST INTO QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN AND MON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK TO 85 TO 90 SUN AND MON...LIKELY LINGERING INTO TUE AS
WELL. THIS RIDGING WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN STREAM JET AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL PASSAGES WELL NW OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUS OTHER THAN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS THU DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST NORTHEAST RIDGE LIKELY BREAKS DOWN EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER AIR PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RISK OF SHOWERS/T-
STORMS IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME OF NEXT WEEK.

DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...LEFTOVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE EVENING AS COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO DEPART. A FEW HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE GIVEN PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES /+1 STD DEVIATIONS
FROM CLIMO/ MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN
SLOW MOVING STORMS. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN 09Z-12Z FRI AS POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS INVADES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

FRI...NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE /COOLER AND LESS HUMID/ AS 1025 MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A GUSTY NE WIND WILL ACCOMPANY
THE COOLER TEMPS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU CLOUDS. NAM HAS CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER THAN
THE GFS. WILL HEDGE TOWARD A TREND OF INCREASING SUNSHINE AS FRI
PROGRESSES WITH COLUMN DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

FRI NIGHT...MUCH COOLER WITH DRY AIRMASS/LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. SOME OF THE COLDER MOS DATA SETS SUGGEST U40S ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS /MVY...I495 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF CT AND MA/.  GIVEN SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAVE BLENDED IN THIS COOLER GUIDANCE.

SAT...AFTER A COOL START ABUNDANT SUNSHINE RESULTS IN TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S AND L80S.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH DEW PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS RESULTS IN
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO 85-90 AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...WARM WEATHER MAY LINGER BUT ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE BOTH HINT AT A FRONTAL PASSAGE POSSIBLE AND YIELDING THE
RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. A MODEL BLEND OF POPS OFFERS SLIGHT CHANCE
/15%/...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

15Z UPDATE...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR. IFR-VLIFR FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AT TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS.

THURSDAY...
VFR. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. TEMPO MVFR IMPACTS. MAIN THREAT +RA.
PERHAPS SOME BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE N AND/OR HAIL SHOULD ANY TSRA
BECOME STRONG. THINKING ISOLATED IMPACTS. LOW CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HAVE SE ORIENTED SEA
BREEZE BEGINNING LATER...ENDING EARLIER THAN USUAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE MARGINAL
MVFR-VFR CIGS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN CLEARING.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1030 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER PREVAILS INTO THU. SEAS BELOW 4 FT
AND WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 KT. SOME LATE NIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WATERS WITH LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT/FRI...A BURST OF NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING...STRONGEST WINDS EASTERN MA WATERS ALONG WITH LARGEST
SEAS.

SAT/SUN...LEFTOVER E SWELLS ERODE/DECAY SAT AND GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
WINDS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KALY 021043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
643 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE PROVIDED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

ALSO...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S OR LOWER...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY AND THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10 AM...GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT
GREATER THAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL-KPSF WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND JOIN THE
VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB-KPOU.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM INTO MID
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 021043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
643 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE PROVIDED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

ALSO...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S OR LOWER...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY AND THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10 AM...GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT
GREATER THAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL-KPSF WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND JOIN THE
VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB-KPOU.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM INTO MID
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 021043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
643 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE PROVIDED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

ALSO...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S OR LOWER...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY AND THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10 AM...GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT
GREATER THAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL-KPSF WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND JOIN THE
VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB-KPOU.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM INTO MID
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 021043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
643 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE PROVIDED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

ALSO...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S OR LOWER...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY AND THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10 AM...GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT
GREATER THAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL-KPSF WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND JOIN THE
VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB-KPOU.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM INTO MID
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 021032
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
632 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM WEATHER TODAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A
TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND LABOR DAY WEEKEND. OTHER THAN THE RISK OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

630 AM UPDATE...

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS MORNING /AT LEAST BY EARLY SEP
STANDARDS/ WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S...70 NOW AT BID. THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO YIELD AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY /OR LIFT INTO A
STRATO-CU DECK/ GIVEN LACK OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS SUNSHINE
WILL GO TO WORK ON THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COMBINE WITH SOME
WIND JUST OFF THE DECK /ORH 25007KT AND MQE 22009KT/ WILL HELP MIX
OUT BLYR LATER THIS MORNING. THUS INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

SKC CONDITIONS REMAIN THE PRIMARY MODE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING OUTSIDE OF WHERE SOME SHALLOW FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
THROUGH SUNRISE.

WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...FULL MIXING SHOULD EASILY TAP H85 WHERE
TEMPS REACH NEAR +20C. THEREFORE...SUSPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW
90S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...SAVE IMMEDIATE S OR E COASTLINES
WHERE SEA BREEZES WILL MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES. E COASTAL SEA
BREEZES ARE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS WINDS OF THE
DECK MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY TOO STRONG.

MASS FIELDS SLACKEN AND THERE ARE FAIRLY ROBUST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES BUT CAPPING INVERSION /H7 TEMPS NEAR +10C/ AND DRY AIR IS
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
ASIDE FROM A FEW BUILDING CI...CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING POSSIBLE. SFC DWPTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO EXPECT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK FOR LATE NIGHT
FOG DEVELOPMENT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...PARTICULARLY IN GRASSY
VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. MINS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

THU...
COLD FRONT WILL ALMOST BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION AS EASTERN TROF
DEEPENS. NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO ABOUT 1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER
NORMALS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PASSING BOUNDARY...EXPECT
AT LEAST A RISK SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

T-STORM RISK IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES
REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALLOW FOR WIDER CAPE
PROFILES THAN WED. SFC VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 1000J/KG TO 2000
FROM THE LESS ROBUST ECMWF TO THE WETTER/MORE UNSTABLE NAM. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...AND SHEAR IS ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 10-20KT
RANGE. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO DRIVE
UPDRAFTS. ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ITS LIKELY TO LIMIT
SEVERITY...WHICH CORRELATES WELL THE SWODY2 FROM SPC. STILL NOTING
SOME 400-600J/KG HAIL CAPES THANKS TO THE WIDE CAPE PROFILES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE APPROACH.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES OTHERWISE...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN THE MID 80S AND LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD DAYS/COOL NIGHTS AND LESS HUMID FRI AND SAT
* WARMING TREND SUN AND MON
* LOW RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS NEXT TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BRIEF MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR RESULTS IN
1027 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND
FRI AND SAT. THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL YIELD MILD DAYS/COOL NIGHTS
AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY FOR OUR REGION. HOWEVER UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OF +2 STD DEVIATIONS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO FRI
BUILDING EAST INTO QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN AND MON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK TO 85 TO 90 SUN AND MON...LIKELY LINGERING INTO TUE AS
WELL. THIS RIDGING WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN STREAM JET AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL PASSAGES WELL NW OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUS OTHER THAN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS THU DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST NORTHEAST RIDGE LIKELY BREAKS DOWN EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER AIR PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RISK OF SHOWERS/T-
STORMS IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME OF NEXT WEEK.

DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...LEFTOVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE EVENING AS COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO DEPART. A FEW HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE GIVEN PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES /+1 STD DEVIATIONS
FROM CLIMO/ MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN
SLOW MOVING STORMS. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN 09Z-12Z FRI AS POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS INVADES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

FRI...NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE /COOLER AND LESS HUMID/ AS 1025 MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A GUSTY NE WIND WILL ACCOMPANY
THE COOLER TEMPS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU CLOUDS. NAM HAS CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER THAN
THE GFS. WILL HEDGE TOWARD A TREND OF INCREASING SUNSHINE AS FRI
PROGRESSES WITH COLUMN DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

FRI NIGHT...MUCH COOLER WITH DRY AIRMASS/LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. SOME OF THE COLDER MOS DATA SETS SUGGEST U40S ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS /MVY...I495 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF CT AND MA/.  GIVEN SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAVE BLENDED IN THIS COOLER GUIDANCE.

SAT...AFTER A COOL START ABUNDANT SUNSHINE RESULTS IN TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S AND L80S.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH DEW PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS RESULTS IN
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO 85-90 AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...WARM WEATHER MAY LINGER BUT ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE BOTH HINT AT A FRONTAL PASSAGE POSSIBLE AND YIELDING THE
RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. A MODEL BLEND OF POPS OFFERS SLIGHT CHANCE
/15%/...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

630 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z AND 09Z TAF ISSUANCES. SHALLOW PATCHY
FOG WILL BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY LATE NIGHT FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE
AIRPORTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...
VFR. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS POSSIBLE...BUT THESE
WILL BE HIT-OR-MISS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HAVE SE ORIENTED SEA
BREEZE BEGINNING LATER...ENDING EARLIER THAN USUAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE MARGINAL
MVFR-VFR CIGS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN CLEARING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER PREVAILS INTO THU. SEAS BELOW 4 FT
AND WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 KT. SOME LATE NIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

THU...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WATERS WITH LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT QUIET
BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT/FRI...A BURST OF NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING...STRONGEST WINDS EASTERN MA WATERS ALONG WITH LARGEST
SEAS.

SAT/SUN...LEFTOVER E SWELLS ERODE/DECAY SAT AND GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
WINDS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021032
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
632 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM WEATHER TODAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A
TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND LABOR DAY WEEKEND. OTHER THAN THE RISK OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

630 AM UPDATE...

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS MORNING /AT LEAST BY EARLY SEP
STANDARDS/ WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S...70 NOW AT BID. THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO YIELD AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY /OR LIFT INTO A
STRATO-CU DECK/ GIVEN LACK OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS SUNSHINE
WILL GO TO WORK ON THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COMBINE WITH SOME
WIND JUST OFF THE DECK /ORH 25007KT AND MQE 22009KT/ WILL HELP MIX
OUT BLYR LATER THIS MORNING. THUS INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

SKC CONDITIONS REMAIN THE PRIMARY MODE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING OUTSIDE OF WHERE SOME SHALLOW FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
THROUGH SUNRISE.

WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...FULL MIXING SHOULD EASILY TAP H85 WHERE
TEMPS REACH NEAR +20C. THEREFORE...SUSPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW
90S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...SAVE IMMEDIATE S OR E COASTLINES
WHERE SEA BREEZES WILL MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES. E COASTAL SEA
BREEZES ARE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS WINDS OF THE
DECK MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY TOO STRONG.

MASS FIELDS SLACKEN AND THERE ARE FAIRLY ROBUST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES BUT CAPPING INVERSION /H7 TEMPS NEAR +10C/ AND DRY AIR IS
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
ASIDE FROM A FEW BUILDING CI...CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING POSSIBLE. SFC DWPTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO EXPECT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK FOR LATE NIGHT
FOG DEVELOPMENT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...PARTICULARLY IN GRASSY
VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. MINS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

THU...
COLD FRONT WILL ALMOST BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION AS EASTERN TROF
DEEPENS. NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO ABOUT 1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER
NORMALS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PASSING BOUNDARY...EXPECT
AT LEAST A RISK SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

T-STORM RISK IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES
REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALLOW FOR WIDER CAPE
PROFILES THAN WED. SFC VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 1000J/KG TO 2000
FROM THE LESS ROBUST ECMWF TO THE WETTER/MORE UNSTABLE NAM. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...AND SHEAR IS ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 10-20KT
RANGE. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO DRIVE
UPDRAFTS. ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ITS LIKELY TO LIMIT
SEVERITY...WHICH CORRELATES WELL THE SWODY2 FROM SPC. STILL NOTING
SOME 400-600J/KG HAIL CAPES THANKS TO THE WIDE CAPE PROFILES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE APPROACH.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES OTHERWISE...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN THE MID 80S AND LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD DAYS/COOL NIGHTS AND LESS HUMID FRI AND SAT
* WARMING TREND SUN AND MON
* LOW RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS NEXT TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BRIEF MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR RESULTS IN
1027 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND
FRI AND SAT. THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL YIELD MILD DAYS/COOL NIGHTS
AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY FOR OUR REGION. HOWEVER UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OF +2 STD DEVIATIONS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO FRI
BUILDING EAST INTO QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN AND MON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK TO 85 TO 90 SUN AND MON...LIKELY LINGERING INTO TUE AS
WELL. THIS RIDGING WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN STREAM JET AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL PASSAGES WELL NW OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUS OTHER THAN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS THU DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST NORTHEAST RIDGE LIKELY BREAKS DOWN EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER AIR PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RISK OF SHOWERS/T-
STORMS IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME OF NEXT WEEK.

DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...LEFTOVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE EVENING AS COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO DEPART. A FEW HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE GIVEN PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES /+1 STD DEVIATIONS
FROM CLIMO/ MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN
SLOW MOVING STORMS. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN 09Z-12Z FRI AS POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS INVADES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

FRI...NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE /COOLER AND LESS HUMID/ AS 1025 MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A GUSTY NE WIND WILL ACCOMPANY
THE COOLER TEMPS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU CLOUDS. NAM HAS CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER THAN
THE GFS. WILL HEDGE TOWARD A TREND OF INCREASING SUNSHINE AS FRI
PROGRESSES WITH COLUMN DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

FRI NIGHT...MUCH COOLER WITH DRY AIRMASS/LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. SOME OF THE COLDER MOS DATA SETS SUGGEST U40S ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS /MVY...I495 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF CT AND MA/.  GIVEN SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAVE BLENDED IN THIS COOLER GUIDANCE.

SAT...AFTER A COOL START ABUNDANT SUNSHINE RESULTS IN TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S AND L80S.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH DEW PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS RESULTS IN
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO 85-90 AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...WARM WEATHER MAY LINGER BUT ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE BOTH HINT AT A FRONTAL PASSAGE POSSIBLE AND YIELDING THE
RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. A MODEL BLEND OF POPS OFFERS SLIGHT CHANCE
/15%/...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

630 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z AND 09Z TAF ISSUANCES. SHALLOW PATCHY
FOG WILL BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY LATE NIGHT FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE
AIRPORTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...
VFR. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS POSSIBLE...BUT THESE
WILL BE HIT-OR-MISS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HAVE SE ORIENTED SEA
BREEZE BEGINNING LATER...ENDING EARLIER THAN USUAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE MARGINAL
MVFR-VFR CIGS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN CLEARING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER PREVAILS INTO THU. SEAS BELOW 4 FT
AND WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 KT. SOME LATE NIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

THU...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WATERS WITH LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT QUIET
BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT/FRI...A BURST OF NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING...STRONGEST WINDS EASTERN MA WATERS ALONG WITH LARGEST
SEAS.

SAT/SUN...LEFTOVER E SWELLS ERODE/DECAY SAT AND GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
WINDS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 021032
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
632 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM WEATHER TODAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A
TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND LABOR DAY WEEKEND. OTHER THAN THE RISK OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

630 AM UPDATE...

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS MORNING /AT LEAST BY EARLY SEP
STANDARDS/ WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S...70 NOW AT BID. THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO YIELD AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY /OR LIFT INTO A
STRATO-CU DECK/ GIVEN LACK OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS SUNSHINE
WILL GO TO WORK ON THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COMBINE WITH SOME
WIND JUST OFF THE DECK /ORH 25007KT AND MQE 22009KT/ WILL HELP MIX
OUT BLYR LATER THIS MORNING. THUS INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

SKC CONDITIONS REMAIN THE PRIMARY MODE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING OUTSIDE OF WHERE SOME SHALLOW FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
THROUGH SUNRISE.

WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...FULL MIXING SHOULD EASILY TAP H85 WHERE
TEMPS REACH NEAR +20C. THEREFORE...SUSPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW
90S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...SAVE IMMEDIATE S OR E COASTLINES
WHERE SEA BREEZES WILL MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES. E COASTAL SEA
BREEZES ARE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS WINDS OF THE
DECK MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY TOO STRONG.

MASS FIELDS SLACKEN AND THERE ARE FAIRLY ROBUST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES BUT CAPPING INVERSION /H7 TEMPS NEAR +10C/ AND DRY AIR IS
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
ASIDE FROM A FEW BUILDING CI...CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING POSSIBLE. SFC DWPTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO EXPECT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK FOR LATE NIGHT
FOG DEVELOPMENT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...PARTICULARLY IN GRASSY
VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. MINS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

THU...
COLD FRONT WILL ALMOST BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION AS EASTERN TROF
DEEPENS. NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO ABOUT 1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER
NORMALS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PASSING BOUNDARY...EXPECT
AT LEAST A RISK SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

T-STORM RISK IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES
REMAIN IN PLACE AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALLOW FOR WIDER CAPE
PROFILES THAN WED. SFC VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 1000J/KG TO 2000
FROM THE LESS ROBUST ECMWF TO THE WETTER/MORE UNSTABLE NAM. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...AND SHEAR IS ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 10-20KT
RANGE. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO DRIVE
UPDRAFTS. ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ITS LIKELY TO LIMIT
SEVERITY...WHICH CORRELATES WELL THE SWODY2 FROM SPC. STILL NOTING
SOME 400-600J/KG HAIL CAPES THANKS TO THE WIDE CAPE PROFILES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE APPROACH.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES OTHERWISE...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN THE MID 80S AND LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD DAYS/COOL NIGHTS AND LESS HUMID FRI AND SAT
* WARMING TREND SUN AND MON
* LOW RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS NEXT TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

BRIEF MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR RESULTS IN
1027 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND
FRI AND SAT. THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL YIELD MILD DAYS/COOL NIGHTS
AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY FOR OUR REGION. HOWEVER UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY OF +2 STD DEVIATIONS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO FRI
BUILDING EAST INTO QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN AND MON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK TO 85 TO 90 SUN AND MON...LIKELY LINGERING INTO TUE AS
WELL. THIS RIDGING WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN STREAM JET AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL PASSAGES WELL NW OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUS OTHER THAN
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS THU DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST NORTHEAST RIDGE LIKELY BREAKS DOWN EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER AIR PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RISK OF SHOWERS/T-
STORMS IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME OF NEXT WEEK.

DAILY DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...LEFTOVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE EVENING AS COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO DEPART. A FEW HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE GIVEN PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES /+1 STD DEVIATIONS
FROM CLIMO/ MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN
SLOW MOVING STORMS. HOWEVER THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN 09Z-12Z FRI AS POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS INVADES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

FRI...NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE /COOLER AND LESS HUMID/ AS 1025 MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A GUSTY NE WIND WILL ACCOMPANY
THE COOLER TEMPS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU CLOUDS. NAM HAS CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER THAN
THE GFS. WILL HEDGE TOWARD A TREND OF INCREASING SUNSHINE AS FRI
PROGRESSES WITH COLUMN DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

FRI NIGHT...MUCH COOLER WITH DRY AIRMASS/LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. SOME OF THE COLDER MOS DATA SETS SUGGEST U40S ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS /MVY...I495 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MA AND
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF CT AND MA/.  GIVEN SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAVE BLENDED IN THIS COOLER GUIDANCE.

SAT...AFTER A COOL START ABUNDANT SUNSHINE RESULTS IN TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S AND L80S.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH DEW PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS RESULTS IN
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO 85-90 AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

TUESDAY...WARM WEATHER MAY LINGER BUT ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE BOTH HINT AT A FRONTAL PASSAGE POSSIBLE AND YIELDING THE
RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. A MODEL BLEND OF POPS OFFERS SLIGHT CHANCE
/15%/...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

630 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z AND 09Z TAF ISSUANCES. SHALLOW PATCHY
FOG WILL BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY LATE NIGHT FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE
AIRPORTS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...
VFR. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS POSSIBLE...BUT THESE
WILL BE HIT-OR-MISS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HAVE SE ORIENTED SEA
BREEZE BEGINNING LATER...ENDING EARLIER THAN USUAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE MARGINAL
MVFR-VFR CIGS THU NGT INTO FRI MORNING...THEN CLEARING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER PREVAILS INTO THU. SEAS BELOW 4 FT
AND WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 KT. SOME LATE NIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

THU...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WATERS WITH LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT QUIET
BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT/FRI...A BURST OF NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING...STRONGEST WINDS EASTERN MA WATERS ALONG WITH LARGEST
SEAS.

SAT/SUN...LEFTOVER E SWELLS ERODE/DECAY SAT AND GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
WINDS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 021028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
628 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE PROVIDED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

ALSO...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S OR LOWER...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY AND THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10 AM...GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT
GREATER THAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 021028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
628 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE PROVIDED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

ALSO...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S OR LOWER...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY AND THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10 AM...GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT
GREATER THAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 021028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
628 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE PROVIDED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

ALSO...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S OR LOWER...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY AND THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10 AM...GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT
GREATER THAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 020819
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE PROVIDED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE.

ALSO...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S OR LOWER...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10 AM...GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT
GREATER THAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 020819
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE PROVIDED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE.

ALSO...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S OR LOWER...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10 AM...GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT
GREATER THAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 020819
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAVE PROVIDED
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS/BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE.

ALSO...PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...ESP IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S OR LOWER...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY.

ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10 AM...GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE EXPECT THE MIXING DEPTH TO BE A BIT
GREATER THAN TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUE...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 80-85 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A
BIT HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...PRODUCING MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 85-90
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
STRONG CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H850-H700. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM TO REACH THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE THWARTED FOR
TODAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD REACH FAR
NW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED
FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH STILL COULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND ISOLATED AREAS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MINS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THURSDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
FORCING PASSING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...THEN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKENING FROM
TODAY...AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO REMAINING WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH DCAPE REACHING 600-900 J/KG.
SO...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY DEEPER
CONVECTION AND ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS GENERATED. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NW CT/THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS IN THE
EVENING. THEN...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESP WITHIN N/S
ORIENTED VALLEY LOCALES. IN FACT...IN SOME AREAS ON AND NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN AND LAKE GEORGE...THE COMBINATION OF N/NE WINDS
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN...ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIXING DUE TO
COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS...MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES IN THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS
REACHING 20-25 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY INTO
THE NE TO E. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD HILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EVEN EXTEND
AS FAR N AS THE CAPITAL REGION/HELDERBERGS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH NOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FURTHER N.
THEN...AS DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LAST ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND A BIT LESS HUMID
FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 75-80 IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WELL...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS ALL GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT CONSENSUS WITH EVOLVING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

H500 HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 595DM OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO THE
H850 TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID-UPR TEENS CELSIUS WHICH TOO IS
1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...WITH A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WSW WIND
TRAJECTORIES THROUGH THE LONG TERM...DOWNSLOPING MAY AID WITH VALLEY
TEMPS AROUND 90F WITH MAINLY 80S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF POINT TOWARD A
WEAKENING TREND AT THIS TIME.  SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  PER PREVIOUS TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS TO BE SATISFIED WOULD BE AT KGFL-KPSF.  SOME PATCHY FOG
AT KPOU-KALB AS WE WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AT KALB WHERE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS MAY DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AIRPORT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN REMAINING LIGHT BUT TRENDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

THE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY. THE RH SHOULD THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 MPH TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
NORTH AT 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE DRY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM