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000
FXUS61 KBOX 240353
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1153 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will wobble north along the coast into
this evening and through Tuesday bringing with it showers and the
chance of thunderstorms. Warmer weather follows beginning Wednesday.
A weak front will move south of the region Wednesday night with
dry, warm weather for Thursday. The front will move north toward
southern New England as a warm front on Friday bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms. The front will continue to drift slowly
north over the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1110 PM update...

Light showers rotating westward around cutoff H5 low pressure near
or just off the mid Atlc coast reaching the S coast of RI into N
central and NE CT at 03Z. Looks like most of the activity will
remain W of E MA and more of RI, but can not rule out widely sct
showers pretty much across the remainder of the region into the
early morning hours. Then, toward sunrise, will start to see sct
showers pretty much anywhere as weak short wave rotates westward
in the cyclonic upper flow to the south, as well as decreasing
temp/dewpoint spreads especially near the coast. With the onshore
wind, will see low clouds and patchy fog moving in. Would not be
surprised to see some spotty drizzle as well.

18Z GFS and new 00Z NAM both continue to signal increasing
instability, with total totals up to the lower 50s, surface based
LIs down to zero to -2 and K indices to the lower 30s around or
after 09Z. NAM appears too robust considering the lack of
convection into the region, so used a blend of the GFS/NAM with a
bit more weight to the GFS. Noting some CG and in cloud lightning
S of 40N late tonight, but appears this will rotate S of the
region for now. Have kept mention of thunder in the forecast
toward daybreak into Tuesday morning, though went with isolated
wording.

Remainder of forecast in pretty good shape, but have updated to
bring conditions current.

Previous discussion...

Low pressure wobbles N evolving into its dying phase undergoing
occlusion. During this morphology, focus is on the crux of mid-
level vortmax energy and parent weak low-level convergence
rounding W-NW round the low into S coastal New England. Should
see decent low to mid level forcing with some venting aloft, along
the leading edge of which a band of light to moderate rain should
emerge. Also isolated thunderstorms are possible given marginal
instability and weak shear parent to expected lift, but such
activity should be non severe with the main threats being
lightning and locally heavy rain.

A consensus of high-res and mos-guidance performed, confidence is
for a band of activity to pivot NW across S New England settling N
to S across W New England and along the high terrain. This keeps a
good chunk of E/SE MA in chance PoPs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Tuesday...

Breaking down. Low chokes itself off entraining drier air as it
stacks and undergoes occlusion within its dying phase. The trowaling
and comma shape to the low persists albeit weaker seemingly over W
portions of New England parent with low level convergent flow along
the E slopes of high terrain and forcing per rotating mid-level
vortex energy. But to the E we could see some improvement with
clouds becoming broken and perhaps some hints of sunshine. Thus can
not rule out partial clearing.

PoPs evolving with highest confidence over the Berkshires while
chance-scattered to the E/SE if forecast models are right in the
evolution of drier air wrapping into the system. A lot of wiggle
room and wobble with this system to which the high-res guidance is
not absolutely succinct but has a decent handle on the trend. Will
avoid high PoPs accordingly with the scattered to broken nature of
the low. Thunder does remain a possibility with continued marginal
instability and weak shear. Think isolated chances and will prevail
accordingly.

Cooler day with clouds in abundance and E/NE flow. Highs up into the
60s. An edge warmer to the W as conditions improve late in the day
with winds shifting out of the W/NW.

Tuesday Night...

The end. Low continues to undergo its dying phase choking upon drier
air as it peels off to the E. Comma head over the W sweeps E across
S New England per a consensus of high-res forecast trends, but by
this point the activity is all but scattered. Should see most of the
wet weather by consensus conclude by midnight behind which W/NW flow
prevails. Anticipated clearing and light winds, would expect lows to
drop into the 40s, and considering the recent rains, can not rule
out some dense fog development if conditions are right.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* Significantly warmer and dry Wednesday and Thursday
* Above average temperatures will continue Friday into Sat
* Hit or miss showers with thunderstorms are possible into the
  Holiday weekend.

OVERVIEW...

Large scale pattern is in agreement with both determinisic and
ensemble guidance. Upper level low will move towards the Maritimes
as Midwest ridge builds into the Northeast. This ridge will bring
summer-like warmth and humidity to the region as ensembles show both
the 700 and 500 heights nearly 1-2 standard deviations above normal.
Several waves will move through the flow keeping a chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast for Late Thursday into Saturday.
Because of the mesoscale differences in the guidance trended the
forecast towards an overall blend.

DAILIES...

Wednesday into Thursday...Moderate Confidence.

Upper level low will push towards the Maritimes on Wednesday.
However, a quick moving shortwave will try to push through the
region during the day. This approaching frontal system will slow
down or stall as mid-level heights begin to build across the region.
Therefor, believe that an isolated shower across the higher terrain
is possible but most of the day appears to be dry. Good mixing
during the afternoon will help warm temperatures back to above
average with highs in the low to mid 80s. This may be the first
time that Boston Logan will hit 80F.

The cold front weakens and stalls over the region by Thursday as
ridging aloft continues. There is the potential for a spot
thunderstorm especially across the CT valley and points west where
the better instability will occur. So another mainly dry day is
anticipated on Thursday. Temperatures will be similar to that on
Wednesday with mixing up to 800mb. Will be cooler along the
coastlines as a sea breeze looks to develop during the afternoon.

Thursday night into Friday...Moderate Confidence.

Depending on where the front stalls, we could see scattered showers
and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. Guidance continues to
hint at the possibility of a decaying MCS moving from the Great
Lakes region towards southern New England. However latest trends is
that this will pass closer to NH than directly over southern New
England. Something to watch in the coming days.

Friday, it still remains unclear how far northward the front will
make it. If it stalls/remains over the region then showers and
thunderstorms may continue, keeping more clouds than sun which will
lower temperatures. Right now believe that the front will get
through a good portion of the area allowing for temps to reach into
the 80s with mid to upper 70s across the east coast.

Memorial Weekend...Moderate Confidence on Saturday. Low Confidence
on Sunday.

High pressure south of the region will begin to strengthen on
Saturday. This will continue to build the ridge to 2-3 standard
deviations above normal. Saturday looks quite balmy with 925 mb
temps warming close to 21-23C. This could result in highs in the mid
80s on Saturday, with a low probability of a 90F across the CT
valley. For now continue with a conservative route for temperatures.
These warm temperatures and lingering moisture may trigger off
afternoon convection on Saturday.

Low confidence on Sunday as EC wants to push a backdoor cold front
through the region where the GFS brings the front through on Monday.
Depending on the frontal timing, temperatures on Sunday could be in
the mid 80s with sun or the upper 60s with clouds and drizzle. Will
have to wait for the guidance to come in better agreement before
having a better idea on how the weekend will end for southern New
England.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...

Overnight...Moderate Confidence.

Mainly VFR through 04Z-06Z, except LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS
moving onshore from Cape Cod to along E coastal Mass. Should see
MVFR- IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS move W to about KORH-KIJD with spotty
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS across the CT valley mainly after 06Z. Scattered
showers with MVFR conditions across N CT/W RI into CT valley.
Isolated thunder possible after 08Z mainly near S coast. Light
E-NE winds.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

SHRA and chance TSRA continue with greatest confidence over W
terminals. Widespread MVFR/IFR impacts begin to shift E with the
usherance of winds backing out of the W/NW. Gusts of around 15 kts
possible.

Tuesday Night...Moderate confidence.

Continued clearing trend W to E with W/NW winds. Improving to VFR.
It is perhaps at the start of the period that MVFR/IFR will only
linger along the E coast of MA.

KBOS TAF...Sct showers will move across the terminal tonight and
into tomorrow. Low prob for some thunder. VFR will drop to
MVFR/IFR after 06z.

KBDL TAF...Confident the terminal will see a fair share of -RA
beginning around midnight and continuing through much of Tuesday
before clearing out late. Moderate prob for TSRA. MVFR conditions
after 06z.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Thursday...High Confidence. VFR.

Thursday night and Friday... Low to Moderate Confidence. Mainly
VFR...becoming MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms beginning late
Thursday night lasting through Friday.

Saturday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR with some MVFR within
in scattered shower or thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Overnight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

E-NE winds with gusts up to 15 kt mainly overnight, then
diminishing Tuesday. Seas 4 feet or less. Visibility reductions
in areas of fog moving W from Mass Bay and E of Cape Cod overnight,
local mist as well. Scattered showers along the S coast of RI,
then continue to develop across entire S coast, possibly reaching
to E coastal areas by daybreak. Isolated thunderstorms after 08Z
through mid morning Tuesday possible.

Tuesday Night...Moderate Confidence.

Winds back out of the W/NW with departure of the low. Change in
wind direction against a E/SE swell, could see some wave heights
up to 5 feet on the outer waters requiring small craft advisories.
Aside, rain comes to an end and visibilities improve if they had
not done so during the day Tuesday.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...Moderate confidence.

Wednesday...Seas subside into Wednesday afternoon. Light winds.

Wednesday night and Thursday...Light winds from the southwest
will shift to the northeast by Thu as a frontal system stalls
over the waters. Seas mainly below small craft criteria but cannot
rule out a few hours of 5 footers across the southeastern waters.

Thursday night and Friday...Southeast winds on the order of 10-15
kt and seas 1 to 3 feet. Just a slight chance of showers or a
thunderstorm.

Saturday...Southwest winds will prevail with seas less than 3
feet.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dunten/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Dunten/EVT
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Dunten/Sipprell/EVT
MARINE...Dunten/Sipprell/EVT



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000
FXUS61 KALY 240225
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1025 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracking close to southern New England tonight into
Tuesday will bring the chance for showers and perhaps an afternoon
thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region south and
east. Weak high pressure will build east off the mid Atlantic
states and summer like weather will spread across our region from
the southwest through the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1020 PM EDT, bands of mid level clouds continue to drift
west, although have eroded somewhat upon reaching our region.
Skies remain mostly clear across the western Adirondacks, and
Schoharie Valley.

The general trend through the night should be for increasing mid
level clouds from SE to NW overnight, although some erosion of the
clouds may continue at times. Some showers are expected to reach
SE areas after 3 AM, particularly across NW CT/southwest MA and
the southern Taconics into the mid Hudson Valley. Some of these
showers may expand N and W close to the Capital Region and central
Taconics and Berkshires closer to daybreak.

Tricky call on low temperatures overnight, as bands of clouds pass
westward, with some breaks in between. Expect mainly mid 40s to
lower 50s for min temps, although slightly colder temps could
occur across the western Adirondacks. Slightly warmer min temps,
in the mid 50s, will be possible across the mid Hudson Valley and
NW CT where clouds should be more prevalent.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There is some consensus in guidance that the western edge of the
deeper clouds and better coverage of rain Tuesday should be from
about the Hudson Valley east through New England. So...showers in
the morning then showers and scattered thunderstorms in the
afternoon...lingering and decreasing in coverage Tuesday evening.
The upper low should steadily move northeast and allow for some
gradual clearing Tuesday night...with some patchy fog in places
depending on what areas see the most rain. Highs Tuesday in the
lower to mid 70s...but some upper 70s in western areas and maybe
parts of the southern Adirondacks where the coverage of clouds and
rain is expected to be the least.

On Wednesday...a weak upper impulse is expected to track
east...but mainly scrape northern areas with some scattered clouds
and isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Boundary layer temperatures should warm a bit and winds are
expected to be west to northwest...which should help temperatures
to rise into the lower to mid 80s...some upper 70s to around 80
northern areas.

By Thursday...the weak boundary that sinks south into our region
Wednesday and Wednesday night should track back north as a warm
front...with again...some scattered clouds...and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Boundary layer temperatures
warm a little more but winds should just be light. Temperatures
are expected to rise to the lower to mid 80s again...with upper
70s in northern areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
This will be an unsettled summer-like period with the risk of
showers and thunderstorms each day.  A warm front will begin to lift
through the region on Friday bringing unseasonable heat and humidity
to the region.  A high pressure ridge building in from the Atlantic
coupled with the lack of a frontal trigger should keep instability
at bay...perhaps just air mass style cells for the weekend.  High
pressure will re-position itself northward toward the Maritimes
coast...possibly setting up a backdoor front which will be just
south and west of our forecast area on Monday.  This could result in
temperatures a few degrees cooler.  But highs Friday through Sunday
will range from the mid 70s to the mid or upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure southeast of Long Island will slowly track northward
toward southeast New England on Tuesday.

Generally VFR conditions are expected through at least 12Z/Tue.
Mid level clouds are expected to gradually increase from southeast
to northwest overnight.

Some spotty light showers may reach KPOU and KPSF toward
sunrise, but at this time, we are not expecting any significant
VSBY/CIG reduction through at least 12Z/Tue.

During Tuesday, scattered showers are expected to develop,
especially during the afternoon hours, with the best chances at
KPSF and KPOU, which will be closer to the surface low and deeper
moisture. Although mainly VFR conditions are forecast, we can not
rule out a few periods of MVFR CIGS/VSBYS within showers, again
most likely at KPOU and KPSF.

Isolated thunderstorms could also occur, but due to limited areal
coverage, have not included any mention in current TAFS.

North to northeast winds at 5-10 kt this evening will become
light/variable overnight, then become north to northeast once
again Tuesday morning and afternoon at 5-10 kt.


Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low pressure tracking close to southern New England tonight into
Tuesday will bring the chance for showers and perhaps an afternoon
thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region south and
east. Weak high pressure will build east off the mid Atlantic
states and summer like weather will spread across our region from
the southwest through the end of next week.

Minimum RH values Tuesday afternoon will range from the 35 to 50
percent range in the west to 60 to 70 percent in the east in
areas of the best chances for rain. On Wednesday...minimum RH
values will be 35 to 50 percent in southern areas and western New
England with 55 to 70 percent in the western Mohawk Valley and
southern Adirondacks where scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible in the afternoon ahead of a weak cold front.

The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast through
Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at
10 to 15 mph...with a few gusts near 20 mph possible in the
afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms Tuesday. At this time amounts up to a tenth of an
inch in our northwestern zones, to quarter to half an inch in our
southeastern zones is anticipated. We do not expect this rainfall
to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and reservoirs.

There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 232341
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
741 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracking close to southern New England tonight into
Tuesday will bring the chance for showers and perhaps an afternoon
thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region south and
east. Weak high pressure will build east off the mid Atlantic
states and summer like weather will spread across our region from
the southwest through the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 730 PM EDT, just a few renegade showers/sprinkles across
portions of western Schoharie CO, and the southern Taconics and
mid Hudson Valley. Most of these should dissipate over the next
1-2 hours. Generally clear to partly cloudy skies elsewhere,
expect for mostly cloudy skies from a mid level cloud deck
extending from southern VT into western MA, NW CT and the mid
Hudson River Valley east of the river.

Otherwise, the upper low building off the mid Atlantic states
tonight and will slowly track northeast off Long Island and
across Cape Cod tomorrow and tomorrow night. The northwestern
periphery of the moisture field is just brushing extreme southern
parts of the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT this evening with some
isolated showers. Based on satellite and radar trends...it may
take much of the night for better coverage of clouds and showers
to build north into the mid Hudson Valley...eastern Catskills and
NW CT.

By daybreak...isolated to scattered showers into the southern half
of the forecast area...nudging into likely from around KPOU through
NW CT. Lows in the 50s...some 40s in northern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There is some consensus in guidance that the western edge of the
deeper clouds and better coverage of rain Tuesday should be from
about the Hudson Valley east through New England. So...showers in
the morning then showers and scattered thunderstorms in the
afternoon...lingering and decreasing in coverage Tuesday evening.
The upper low should steadily move northeast and allow for some
gradual clearing Tuesday night...with some patchy fog in places
depending on what areas see the most rain. Highs Tuesday in the
lower to mid 70s...but some upper 70s in western areas and maybe
parts of the southern Adirondacks where the coverage of clouds and
rain is expected to be the least.

On Wednesday...a weak upper impulse is expected to track
east...but mainly scrape northern areas with some scattered clouds
and isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Boundary layer temperatures should warm a bit and winds are
expected to be west to northwest...which should help temperatures
to rise into the lower to mid 80s...some upper 70s to around 80
northern areas.

By Thursday...the weak boundary that sinks south into our region
Wednesday and Wednesday night should track back north as a warm
front...with again...some scattered clouds...and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Boundary layer temperatures
warm a little more but winds should just be light. Temperatures
are expected to rise to the lower to mid 80s again...with upper
70s in northern areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
This will be an unsettled summer-like period with the risk of
showers and thunderstorms each day.  A warm front will begin to lift
through the region on Friday bringing unseasonable heat and humidity
to the region.  A high pressure ridge building in from the Atlantic
coupled with the lack of a frontal trigger should keep instability
at bay...perhaps just air mass style cells for the weekend.  High
pressure will re-position itself northward toward the Maritimes
coast...possibly setting up a backdoor front which will be just
south and west of our forecast area on Monday.  This could result in
temperatures a few degrees cooler.  But highs Friday through Sunday
will range from the mid 70s to the mid or upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure southeast of Long Island will slowly track northward
toward southeast New England on Tuesday.

Generally VFR conditions are expected through at least 12Z/Tue.
Mid level clouds are expected to gradually increase from southeast
to northwest overnight.

Some spotty light showers may reach KPOU and KPSF toward
sunrise, but at this time, we are not expecting any significant
VSBY/CIG reduction through at least 12Z/Tue.

During Tuesday, scattered showers are expected to develop,
especially during the afternoon hours, with the best chances at
KPSF and KPOU, which will be closer to the surface low and deeper
moisture. Although mainly VFR conditions are forecast, we can not
rule out a few periods of MVFR CIGS/VSBYS within showers, again
most likely at KPOU and KPSF.

Isolated thunderstorms could also occur, but due to limited areal
coverage, have not included any mention in current TAFS.

North to northeast winds at 5-10 kt this evening will become
light/variable overnight, then become north to northeast once
again Tuesday morning and afternoon at 5-10 kt.


Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low pressure tracking close to southern New England tonight into
Tuesday will bring the chance for showers and perhaps an afternoon
thunderstorm to locations from the Capital Region south and
east. Weak high pressure will build east off the mid Atlantic
states and summer like weather will spread across our region from
the southwest through the end of next week.

Minimum RH values Tuesday afternoon will range from the 35 to 50
percent range in the west to 60 to 70 percent in the east in
areas of the best chances for rain. On Wednesday...minimum RH
values will be 35 to 50 percent in southern areas and western New
England with 55 to 70 percent in the western Mohawk Valley and
southern Adirondacks where scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible in the afternoon ahead of a weak cold front.

The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast through
Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more west on Wednesday at
10 to 15 mph...with a few gusts near 20 mph possible in the
afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some showers and scattered
thunderstorms Tuesday. At this time amounts up to a tenth of an
inch in our northwestern zones, to quarter to half an inch in our
southeastern zones is anticipated. We do not expect this rainfall
to produce much if any rises on rivers streams and reservoirs.

There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. More
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday when the
weak cold front returns north. Any heavy rain in scattered
thunderstorms would be very localized.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 232305
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
705 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will wobble north along the coast into
this evening and through Tuesday bringing with it showers and the
chance of thunderstorms. Warmer weather follows beginning Wednesday.
A weak front will move south of the region Wednesday night with
dry, warm weather for Thursday. The front will move north toward
southern New England as a warm front on Friday bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms. The front will continue to drift slowly
north over the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

700 pm update...

Minor changes to the forecast to account for current trends.
Easterly flow combined with approaching shortwave has already
triggered some light showers/drizzle across the Mass eastern
coastline, especially the Cape and North Shore. Although the
radar shows these showers making it to Worcester
County...temp/dewpoint depression is a bit large. Therefore
anticipate sprinkles in locations west of the I-495 belt. Updated
the precipitation forecast with latest hi-res and 18z guidance.
Otherwise bulk of the forecast remains on track.

Tonight...

Unsettled, wet weather expected though variance within near-term
high-res forecast guidance leaves a lot to be desired with respect
to specifics. Taking a broader view, low pressure wobbles N evolving
into its dying phase undergoing occlusion. Airstreams cyclonically
trowal into the low center yielding a comma-head structure. During
this morphology focus is on the crux of mid-level vortmax energy and
parent weak low-level convergence rounding NW round the low into S
New England. Should see decent low to mid level forcing, with some
venting aloft, along the leading edge of which a band of light to
moderate rain should emerge. Also possible embedded thunderstorms
given marginal instability and weak shear parent to expected lift,
but such activity should be non-severe with the main threats being
lightning and heavy rain.

So taken altogether likely PoPs would be warranted, but it`s unclear
as to when and where specifically. A consensus of high-res and mos-
guidance performed, confidence is for a band of activity to pivot NW
across S New England settling N to S across W New England and along
the high terrain. This keeps a good chunk of E/SE MA in chance PoPs.

A moderate confidence forecast with mild conditions as low range
around the mid 50s. Likely a mixed-bag of conditions consisting of
mist and fog resulting in subsequent reductions in visibility.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday...

Breaking down. Low chokes itself off entraining drier air as it
stacks and undergoes occlusion within its dying phase. The trowaling
and comma shape to the low persists albeit weaker seemingly over W
portions of New England parent with low level convergent flow along
the E slopes of high terrain and forcing per rotating mid-level
vortex energy. But to the E we could see some improvement with
clouds becoming broken and perhaps some hints of sunshine. Thus can
not rule out partial clearing.

PoPs evolving with highest confidence over the Berkshires while
chance-scattered to the E/SE if forecast models are right in the
evolution of drier air wrapping into the system. A lot of wiggle
room and wobble with this system to which the high-res guidance is
not absolutely succinct but has a decent handle on the trend. Will
avoid high PoPs accordingly with the scattered to broken nature of
the low. Thunder does remain a possibility with continued marginal
instability and weak shear. Think isolated chances and will prevail
accordingly.

Cooler day with clouds in abundance and E/NE flow. Highs up into the
60s. An edge warmer to the W as conditions improve late in the day
with winds shifting out of the W/NW.

Tuesday Night...

The end. Low continues to undergo its dying phase choking upon drier
air as it peels off to the E. Comma head over the W sweeps E across
S New England per a consensus of high-res forecast trends, but by
this point the activity is all but scattered. Should see most of the
wet weather by consensus conclude by midnight behind which W/NW flow
prevails. Anticipated clearing and light winds, would expect lows to
drop into the 40s, and considering the recent rains, can not rule
out some dense fog development if conditions are right.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* Significantly warmer and dry Wednesday and Thursday
* Above average temperatures will continue Friday into Sat
* Hit or miss showers with thunderstorms are possible into the
  Holiday weekend.

OVERVIEW...

Large scale pattern is in agreement with both determinisic and
ensemble guidance. Upper level low will move towards the Maritimes
as Midwest ridge builds into the Northeast. This ridge will bring
summer-like warmth and humidity to the region as ensembles show both
the 700 and 500 heights nearly 1-2 standard deviations above normal.
Several waves will move through the flow keeping a chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast for Late Thursday into Saturday.
Because of the mesoscale differences in the guidance trended the
forecast towards an overall blend.

DAILIES...

Wednesday into Thursday...Moderate Confidence.

Upper level low will push towards the Maritimes on Wednesday.
However, a quick moving shortwave will try to push through the
region during the day. This approaching frontal system will slow
down or stall as mid-level heights begin to build across the region.
Therefor, believe that an isolated shower across the higher terrain
is possible but most of the day appears to be dry. Good mixing
during the afternoon will help warm temperatures back to above
average with highs in the low to mid 80s. This may be the first
time that Boston Logan will hit 80F.

The cold front weakens and stalls over the region by Thursday as
ridging aloft continues. There is the potential for a spot
thunderstorm especially across the CT valley and points west where
the better instability will occur. So another mainly dry day is
anticipated on Thursday. Temperatures will be similar to that on
Wednesday with mixing up to 800mb. Will be cooler along the
coastlines as a sea breeze looks to develop during the afternoon.

Thursday night into Friday...Moderate Confidence.

Depending on where the front stalls, we could see scattered showers
and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. Guidance continues to
hint at the possibility of a decaying MCS moving from the Great
Lakes region towards southern New England. However latest trends is
that this will pass closer to NH than directly over southern New
England. Something to watch in the coming days.

Friday, it still remains unclear how far northward the front will
make it. If it stalls/remains over the region then showers and
thunderstorms may continue, keeping more clouds than sun which will
lower temperatures. Right now believe that the front will get
through a good portion of the area allowing for temps to reach into
the 80s with mid to upper 70s across the east coast.

Memorial Weekend...Moderate Confidence on Saturday. Low Confidence
on Sunday.

High pressure south of the region will begin to strengthen on
Saturday. This will continue to build the ridge to 2-3 standard
deviations above normal. Saturday looks quite balmy with 925 mb
temps warming close to 21-23C. This could result in highs in the mid
80s on Saturday, with a low probability of a 90F across the CT
valley. For now continue with a conservative route for temperatures.
These warm temperatures and lingering moisture may trigger off
afternoon convection on Saturday.

Low confidence on Sunday as EC wants to push a backdoor cold front
through the region where the GFS brings the front through on Monday.
Depending on the frontal timing, temperatures on Sunday could be in
the mid 80s with sun or the upper 60s with clouds and drizzle. Will
have to wait for the guidance to come in better agreement before
having a better idea on how the weekend will end for southern New
England.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Specificity difficult to nail down. Will prevail VCSH with uncertainty
while -RA with confidence. Anticipate scattered SHRA with chance TSRA
with greater confidence of impact over W terminals. With respect to
cigs and vsbys, confident widespread MVFR/IFR impacts with fog and
mist especially over E/SE terminals. NE winds with gusts upward of
15 kts.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

SHRA and chance TSRA continue with greatest confidence over W terminals.
Widespread MVFR/IFR impacts begin to shift E with the usherance of
winds backing out of the W/NW. Gusts of around 15 kts possible.

Tuesday Night...Moderate confidence.

Continued clearing trend W to E with W/NW winds. Improving to VFR.
It is perhaps at the start of the period that MVFR/IFR will only
linger along the E coast of MA.

KBOS TAF...Sct showers will move across the terminal tonight and
into tomorrow. Low prob for some thunder. VFR will drop to
MVFR/IFR after 06z.

KBDL TAF...Confident the terminal will see a fair share of -RA
beginning around midnight and continuing through much of Tuesday
before clearing out late. Moderate prob for TSRA. MVFR conditions
after 06z.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Thursday...High Confidence. VFR.

Thursday night and Friday... Low to Moderate Confidence. Mainly
VFR...becoming MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms beginning late
Thursday night lasting through Friday.

Saturday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR with some MVFR within
in scattered shower or thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

315 pm update...

Tonight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Low pressure wobbles around S New England. E/NE winds with gusts
up to 15 kts. Seas dropping below 5 feet early. Main concern is
with anticipated wet weather that there will be reductions to
visibility out on the waters. Can not rule out visibilities
falling as low a a few miles with mist / fog.

Tuesday Night...Moderate Confidence.

Winds back out of the W/NW with departure of the low. Change in
wind direction against a E/SE swell, could see some wave heights
up to 5 feet on the outer waters requiring small craft advisories.
Aside, rain comes to an end and visibilities improve if they had
not done so during the day Tuesday.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...Moderate confidence.

Wednesday...Seas subside into Wednesday afternoon. Light winds.

Wednesday night and Thursday...Light winds from the southwest
will shift to the northeast by Thu as a frontal system stalls
over the waters. Seas mainly below small craft criteria but cannot
rule out a few hours of 5 footers across the southeastern waters.

Thursday night and Friday...Southeast winds on the order of 10-15
kt and seas 1 to 3 feet. Just a slight chance of showers or a
thunderstorm.

Saturday...Southwest winds will prevail with seas less than 3
feet.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dunten/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Dunten/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Dunten/Sipprell
MARINE...Dunten/Sipprell




000
FXUS61 KALY 231725
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
125 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build in from the Great Lakes
Region and Midwest through early today. Low pressure tracking close
to southern New England late today into Tuesday will bring the
chance for showers and perhaps an afternoon thunderstorm to
locations from the Capital Region south and east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Some diurnal cloudiness in areas of terrain...where a few showers
could develop...especially around the eastern Catskills. Lots of
sunshine helping temperatures to rise and adjusted some
temperatures and sky cover through this afternoon.

High temperatures look to reach around 80 to just above 80 in
most valley areas, mid to upper 70s across the higher terrain.

A light to calm wind will become northerly 5-10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned low pressure will be to our east tonight and
scattered showers look to reach the Capital region, perhaps more
numerous well south and east Albany. Model consensus is that
the majority of rain with this system will once again stay to the
east of our region.

Low tonight will range from the upper 40s northwest to upper
50s southeast of the Capital region. With a good deal of clouds on
Tuesday, high temperatures look to be held down a little compared to
today, close to 70, with upper 60s south and east of Albany.

This next system is still forecast to pull out Tuesday night with
any lingering showers or drizzle ending, perhaps leading to some
patchy fog as the sky partially clears. Low temperatures close
to 50 degrees.

Wednesday, it now appears that a weak backdoor cold front could
slip south through our region, triggering perhaps a few afternoon
showers or a thunderstorm. With some sunshine anticipated through
midday as well as H850 temperatures reaching around +12C,
temperatures overall look a bit warmer than Tuesday, with highs 80
or better Albany southward, 70s most other areas, with some upper
60s across our southern Adirondacks.

Wednesday night looks dry with a partly cloudy sky and lows
generally in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The trend in the extended forecast is to more heat and humidity and
above normal temps as we get into the last week of May.

Thu-Fri...The cold front that moves through mid-week will begin to
slowly lift north/northeast across the forecast area as a warm
front.  The 00Z guidance and ensembles are a little faster this
cycle with a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms by
the afternoon reaching the NY and New England border.  H850 temps
increase to +14C to +15C for highs to get into the 80-85F range in
the valley locations...and mid 70s to around 80F over the hills and
mountains. The night period looks to more active with a good chance
of showers and thunderstorms as the warm front continues to move
across the region. The warm front will likely interact with a short-
wave in the W/SW mid level flow which may enhance the rainfall some.
Showalter indices fall to 0 to -2C for the potential increasing for
elevated convection. Lows will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

By Friday...it still remains unclear how far north the front goes by
daybreak. If it stalls over the Mohawk valley/Capital Region
scattered showers and thunderstorms may continue...and more clouds
than sun will be anticipated which will keep temps down a bit.  Have
gone slightly above the superblend of the guidance with upper 70s to
around 80F in the valley areas...and upper 60s to mid 70s over the
elevated terrain.

Friday night in Saturday...There are some trends with the medium
range deterministic guidance and the ensembles that the front will
migrate north of the region...and the isold-sct showers and
thunderstorms will end FRI night.  No clear forcing mechanism
appears to be around Saturday afternoon except the front near the St
Lawrence River Valley.  We have kept a low to slight chc of showers
and thunderstorms in during the day.  It will become more humid with
dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s.  H850 temps remain above
normal in the +14C to +16C range according to the ECMWF.  After lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s...expect highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s over the forecast area.

Saturday night into Sunday...The middle portion of the Memorial Day
weekend looks to be warm and humid with some diurnally focused isold-
sct showers and thunderstorms as an extension of the subtropical
high builds in from the Mid-Atlantic Region.  Lows will be similar
to the previous night, but highs will be a shade warmer with lower
to mid 80s in the valleys...and mid 70s to lower 80s over the hill
and mountains. Humidity levels will remain high.

Overall...temps look above normal in the long term with pcpn
trending towards normal depending where any convection occurs and
quickly the warm front moves through THU-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions through the afternoon hours then gradual
deteriorating conditions tonight into Tuesday.

Convective temperature has been achieved as CU has developed,
mainly across the terrain at the present time. The best chance for
broken sky coverage will be at KPSF-KPOU along with increase
probability for a shower too develop. While a thunderstorm can not
be ruled out, probabilities appear too low for inclusion in the
TAFs. Depending on where the rain may fall, there could be some
fog again tonight.

As the coastal low and upper low approach, deformation axis will
bring a period of rain/showers mainly to the south of KGFL
overnight. So a reduction to MVFR/IFR for KPSF-KPOU with the
chance at KALB-KGFL which will be closely monitored.

Winds this afternoon from the north around 10kts with some
slightly higher gusts from time to time. Then those winds subside
to less than 5kts tonight through Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night:  Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values appear to remain moderate or high through much of the week
with full recoveries expected each night. A weak high pressure will
build early today. Low pressure will track to our southeast late
today into Tuesday, spreading more clouds and scattered showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm, mainly from the Capital region south and
east, by late in the day into Tuesday. Then, a Bermuda high will
form eventually taking control of our weather by late in the week.
Before that happens, one more backdoor cold front on Wednesday night
touch off a few more showers or even a thunderstorm mainly from
Albany northward.

The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast today
through Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more western on
Wednesday at similar speeds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some isolated to scattered
showers late today with better coverage of showers Tuesday. At this
time amounts about a tenth of an inch in our northwestern zones, to
quarter to half an inch in our southeastern zones is anticipated. We
do not expect this rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers
streams and reservoirs.

There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. After that,
our area might get into the "ring of fire" with scattered convection
possible the rest of the week. With higher humidity, thunderstorms
later in the week could produce locally heavier rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS

www.weather.gov/albany




000
FXUS61 KALY 231710
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
110 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build in from the Great Lakes
Region and Midwest through early today. Low pressure tracking close
to southern New England late today into Tuesday will bring the
chance for showers and perhaps an afternoon thunderstorm to
locations from the Capital Region south and east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Some diurnal cloudiness in areas of terrain...where a few showers
could develop...especially around the eastern Catskills. Lots of
sunshine helping temperatures to rise and adjusted some
temperatures and sky cover through this afternoon.

High temperatures look to reach around 80 to just above 80 in
most valley areas, mid to upper 70s across the higher terrain.

A light to calm wind will become northerly 5-10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned low pressure will be to our east tonight and
scattered showers look to reach the Capital region, perhaps more
numerous well south and east Albany. Model consensus is that
the majority of rain with this system will once again stay to the
east of our region.

Low tonight will range from the upper 40s northwest to upper
50s southeast of the Capital region. With a good deal of clouds on
Tuesday, high temperatures look to be held down a little compared to
today, close to 70, with upper 60s south and east of Albany.

This next system is still forecast to pull out Tuesday night with
any lingering showers or drizzle ending, perhaps leading to some
patchy fog as the sky partially clears. Low temperatures close
to 50 degrees.

Wednesday, it now appears that a weak backdoor cold front could
slip south through our region, triggering perhaps a few afternoon
showers or a thunderstorm. With some sunshine anticipated through
midday as well as H850 temperatures reaching around +12C,
temperatures overall look a bit warmer than Tuesday, with highs 80
or better Albany southward, 70s most other areas, with some upper
60s across our southern Adirondacks.

Wednesday night looks dry with a partly cloudy sky and lows
generally in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The trend in the extended forecast is to more heat and humidity and
above normal temps as we get into the last week of May.

Thu-Fri...The cold front that moves through mid-week will begin to
slowly lift north/northeast across the forecast area as a warm
front.  The 00Z guidance and ensembles are a little faster this
cycle with a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms by
the afternoon reaching the NY and New England border.  H850 temps
increase to +14C to +15C for highs to get into the 80-85F range in
the valley locations...and mid 70s to around 80F over the hills and
mountains. The night period looks to more active with a good chance
of showers and thunderstorms as the warm front continues to move
across the region. The warm front will likely interact with a short-
wave in the W/SW mid level flow which may enhance the rainfall some.
Showalter indices fall to 0 to -2C for the potential increasing for
elevated convection. Lows will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

By Friday...it still remains unclear how far north the front goes by
daybreak. If it stalls over the Mohawk valley/Capital Region
scattered showers and thunderstorms may continue...and more clouds
than sun will be anticipated which will keep temps down a bit.  Have
gone slightly above the superblend of the guidance with upper 70s to
around 80F in the valley areas...and upper 60s to mid 70s over the
elevated terrain.

Friday night in Saturday...There are some trends with the medium
range deterministic guidance and the ensembles that the front will
migrate north of the region...and the isold-sct showers and
thunderstorms will end FRI night.  No clear forcing mechanism
appears to be around Saturday afternoon except the front near the St
Lawrence River Valley.  We have kept a low to slight chc of showers
and thunderstorms in during the day.  It will become more humid with
dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s.  H850 temps remain above
normal in the +14C to +16C range according to the ECMWF.  After lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s...expect highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s over the forecast area.

Saturday night into Sunday...The middle portion of the Memorial Day
weekend looks to be warm and humid with some diurnally focused isold-
sct showers and thunderstorms as an extension of the subtropical
high builds in from the Mid-Atlantic Region.  Lows will be similar
to the previous night, but highs will be a shade warmer with lower
to mid 80s in the valleys...and mid 70s to lower 80s over the hill
and mountains. Humidity levels will remain high.

Overall...temps look above normal in the long term with pcpn
trending towards normal depending where any convection occurs and
quickly the warm front moves through THU-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
With the exception of KGFL mainly VFR flying conditions through today.
There might be some residual IFR fog at KGFL through 13Z.

Otherwise VFR today with increasing afternoon clouds. As we head toward
evening showers and thunderstorms are possible at all the TAFS except
for KGFL where only a small chance for showers exist. We have introduce
PROB30 groups for possible thunderstorms reducing conditions to high
end MVFR at KALB/KPSF and KPOU.

There could be some fog again tonight depending on how much rain falls
through then.

The wind will become northerly later today around 5KTS.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night:  Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values appear to remain moderate or high through much of the week
with full recoveries expected each night. A weak high pressure will
build early today. Low pressure will track to our southeast late
today into Tuesday, spreading more clouds and scattered showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm, mainly from the Capital region south and
east, by late in the day into Tuesday. Then, a Bermuda high will
form eventually taking control of our weather by late in the week.
Before that happens, one more backdoor cold front on Wednesday night
touch off a few more showers or even a thunderstorm mainly from
Albany northward.

The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast today
through Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more western on
Wednesday at similar speeds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some isolated to scattered
showers late today with better coverage of showers Tuesday. At this
time amounts about a tenth of an inch in our northwestern zones, to
quarter to half an inch in our southeastern zones is anticipated. We
do not expect this rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers
streams and reservoirs.

There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. After that,
our area might get into the "ring of fire" with scattered convection
possible the rest of the week. With higher humidity, thunderstorms
later in the week could produce locally heavier rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 231303
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
903 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build in from the Great Lakes
Region and Midwest through early today. Low pressure tracking close
to southern New England late today into Tuesday will bring the
chance for showers and perhaps an afternoon thunderstorm to
locations from the Capital Region south and east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update 900 AM EDT...Mostly sunny skies across the region with fog
lifting quickly and burning off with just few-sct ci/cs across the
sky. 12Z sounding reveals our convective temperature into the
lower 70s which, under the sunshine, should achieve close to noon.
Latest hi-res reflectivity model forecasts suggest isolated to
scattered convection develops a bit further north across the
Adirondacks then mainly along and south of I90. So adjusted PoPs a
little further northward. Otherwise, minor tweaks to the sky grids
and updated hourly temps/dewpoints/winds.

Prev disc...Weak high pressure should provide a dry morning
through midday before more clouds begin moving in during the
afternoon. Another cutoff low in central VA was lifting northward.
This upper level system is forecast to form a weak surface low
which will track northward toward Cape Cod through Tuesday.

Once any fog burns off, the day will start out mainly sunny. Then,
another surge of clouds will overspread our region from southeast
to northwest during the afternoon hours along with increasing
chances for showers. It will be warm enough for enough instability
(up to 500 J/KG) for perhaps a rumble of thunder or two, so
mentioned slight to chances for thunderstorms. Most of this
activity will stay south and east of the Capital region through
today.

High temperatures look to reach 75-80 in most valley areas, 70-75
across the higher terrain.

A light to calm wind will become northerly 5-10 mph.

For this update, just minor tweaks of the grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned low pressure will be to our east tonight and
scattered showers look to reach the Capital region, perhaps more
numerous well south and east Albany. Model consensus is that
the majority of rain with this system will once again stay to the
east of our region.

Low tonight will range from the upper 40s northwest to upper
50s southeast of the Capital region. With a good deal of clouds on
Tuesday, high temperatures look to be held down a little compared to
today, close to 70, with upper 60s south and east of Albany.

This next system is still forecast to pull out Tuesday night with
any lingering showers or drizzle ending, perhaps leading to some
patchy fog as the sky partially clears. Low temperatures close
to 50 degrees.

Wednesday, it now appears that a weak backdoor cold front could
slip south through our region, triggering perhaps a few afternoon
showers or a thunderstorm. With some sunshine anticipated through
midday as well as H850 temperatures reaching around +12C,
temperatures overall look a bit warmer than Tuesday, with highs 80
or better Albany southward, 70s most other areas, with some upper
60s across our southern Adirondacks.

Wednesday night looks dry with a partly cloudy sky and lows
generally in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The trend in the extended forecast is to more heat and humidity and
above normal temps as we get into the last week of May.

Thu-Fri...The cold front that moves through mid-week will begin to
slowly lift north/northeast across the forecast area as a warm
front.  The 00Z guidance and ensembles are a little faster this
cycle with a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms by
the afternoon reaching the NY and New England border.  H850 temps
increase to +14C to +15C for highs to get into the 80-85F range in
the valley locations...and mid 70s to around 80F over the hills and
mountains. The night period looks to more active with a good chance
of showers and thunderstorms as the warm front continues to move
across the region. The warm front will likely interact with a short-
wave in the W/SW mid level flow which may enhance the rainfall some.
Showalter indices fall to 0 to -2C for the potential increasing for
elevated convection. Lows will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

By Friday...it still remains unclear how far north the front goes by
daybreak. If it stalls over the Mohawk valley/Capital Region
scattered showers and thunderstorms may continue...and more clouds
than sun will be anticipated which will keep temps down a bit.  Have
gone slightly above the superblend of the guidance with upper 70s to
around 80F in the valley areas...and upper 60s to mid 70s over the
elevated terrain.

Friday night in Saturday...There are some trends with the medium
range deterministic guidance and the ensembles that the front will
migrate north of the region...and the isold-sct showers and
thunderstorms will end FRI night.  No clear forcing mechanism
appears to be around Saturday afternoon except the front near the St
Lawrence River Valley.  We have kept a low to slight chc of showers
and thunderstorms in during the day.  It will become more humid with
dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s.  H850 temps remain above
normal in the +14C to +16C range according to the ECMWF.  After lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s...expect highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s over the forecast area.

Saturday night into Sunday...The middle portion of the Memorial Day
weekend looks to be warm and humid with some diurnally focused isold-
sct showers and thunderstorms as an extension of the subtropical
high builds in from the Mid-Atlantic Region.  Lows will be similar
to the previous night, but highs will be a shade warmer with lower
to mid 80s in the valleys...and mid 70s to lower 80s over the hill
and mountains. Humidity levels will remain high.

Overall...temps look above normal in the long term with pcpn
trending towards normal depending where any convection occurs and
quickly the warm front moves through THU-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
With the exception of KGFL mainly VFR flying conditions through today.
There might be some residual IFR fog at KGFL through 13Z.

Otherwise VFR today with increasing afternoon clouds. As we head toward
evening showers and thunderstorms are possible at all the TAFS except
for KGFL where only a small chance for showers exist. We have introduce
PROB30 groups for possible thunderstorms reducing conditions to high
end MVFR at KALB/KPSF and KPOU.

There could be some fog again tonight depending on how much rain falls
through then.

The wind will become northerly later today around 5KTS.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night:  Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values appear to remain moderate or high through much of the week
with full recoveries expected each night. A weak high pressure will
build early today. Low pressure will track to our southeast late
today into Tuesday, spreading more clouds and scattered showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm, mainly from the Capital region south and
east, by late in the day into Tuesday. Then, a Bermuda high will
form eventually taking control of our weather by late in the week.
Before that happens, one more backdoor cold front on Wednesday night
touch off a few more showers or even a thunderstorm mainly from
Albany northward.

The surface wind will be light out of the north or northeast today
through Tuesday, generally 5-9 MPH becoming more western on
Wednesday at similar speeds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Friday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some isolated to scattered
showers late today with better coverage of showers Tuesday. At this
time amounts about a tenth of an inch in our northwestern zones, to
quarter to half an inch in our southeastern zones is anticipated. We
do not expect this rainfall to produce much if any rises on rivers
streams and reservoirs.

There is another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
Albany north on Wednesday with a backdoor cold front. After that,
our area might get into the "ring of fire" with scattered convection
possible the rest of the week. With higher humidity, thunderstorms
later in the week could produce locally heavier rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231112
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
712 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
We are in between weather systems today, with fair dry weather
during much of the daylight hours. Low pressure moves up the
coast this evening through Tuesday bringing showers and
thunderstorms. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday.
A weak front will move south of the region Wednesday night
with dry, warm weather for Thursday. The front will move north
toward southern New England as a warm front on Friday bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front will continue to
drift slowly north over the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
715 AM UPDATE...

Some mid level cloudiness was affecting southeastern Massachusetts
early this morning. Otherwise, skies were clear and isolated fog
patches had already dissipated. No changes to temperatures,
dewpoints, or winds.

Previous discussion...

Closed upper low is in place along the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
coasts, although the most significant instability remains from PA
to North Carolina through the day before moving into Southern New
England this evening.

Heating by the sun will create sufficient mixing to reach near 800
mb, where temps will support max surface values in the mid to
upper 70s. A light northeast surface wind will keep temperatures
near the Mass East Coast in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight...

Instability moving up from Eastern PA may reach western CT this
evening and bring a few showers. The more significant feature will
be low pressure surface and aloft that will move north toward New
England. This feature will bring colder temps aloft over our area,
supporting greater instability. Upper jet moving around the low
will be just east of MA with the lift-supporting left exit region
over RI and eastern MA. For both reasons, expect showers moving up
from the south tonight with sufficient instability for a couple of
thunderstorms too. Will use likely POPs, but on the lower side of
this range.

Clouds and the northeast flow off the water point to min sfc temps
near the dew point, in the lower 50s.

Tuesday...

Core of the upper low moves over RI and Eastern MA. Similarity
among the models gives some confidence to this positioning. Core
of the cold pool aloft also moves over our area, so instability
will linger through the day. Concern remains for the chance of a
couple of thunderstorms due to the unstable airmass. We will
mention slight chance of thunder. POPs will be at high-end chance
or low-end likely much of the day.

Tuesday will be much cloudier than today so more limited mixing,
probably to 925 mb or 900 mb. Temps at these levels would support
max surface temps in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Significantly warmer Wednesday and Thursday
 * Cooler on Friday with Scattered showers and thunderstorms
 * Warm for Memorial Day weekend with a few showers/thunderstorms

Overview and Model Preferences...

At upper levels...a persistent upper low moves northeast over the
Canadian Maritimes by late Wednesday afternoon. A strong upper
level ridge of high pressure will develop from the mid-Atlantic
coast to New England late in the week and next weekend.

At the surface...a weak front will slip south of the region Wed
night bringing a wind shift to the north and drier air for Thu.
That front will strengthen and move northward as a warm front by
Fri...bringing increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms and
cooler weather. The front will slowly edge northward next weekend
allowing summerlike temperatures to return for the Memorial Day
weekend but with a few showers and thunderstorms possible each day.

Tuesday night... As the upper low finally moves northeast away
from the region, any lingering light showers will end in the
evening and skies will clear out after midnight. Lows mainly
50-55.

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
westerly downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-
like temperatures away from the coast...mainly 80 to 85.There
could be seabreezes, but it appears the synoptic flow could be
just strong enough to prevent lower temperatures along parts of
the MA east coast. Cape Cod and the islands, as well as Cape Ann,
however, will likely remain as cool as the south coast of New
England, where southwest winds should prevail...upper 60s to mid
70s there.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Weak low pressure passes by to our
northeast Wed evening and an associated weak front will move
across our region. The front will usher in very dry air aloft
and light west winds will turn northerly. With a good deal of
sunshine on Thu, high temperatures will again reach the 80 to 85
degree mark over the interior. But there will be a better chance
of sea breezes along the entire east and southeast coastline, with
temperatures only reaching mid 60s to mid 70s at the immediate
coast.

Thursday night and Friday... The front that moved through Wed night
will strengthen to our south and begin to head northward Thu night.
Winds will turn to the east and southeast, bringing an increase in
moisture and a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms later
Thu night. Friday now looks like a much cooler day than earlier
anticipated, with a warm front in our vicinity and a continuation
of E to SE flow. It will be on the cloudy side with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms, especially in western sections. Highs
only in the 70s...cooler at the immediate coast.

Saturday and Sunday... This far out...there is still a fair amount
of uncertainty. However, it looks like the warm front will drift
slowly northward on Saturday and be completely north of the region
on Sunday. The Memorial Day weekend should feature a return of
summer-like temperatures with highs in the mid 80s. Upper 80s are
possible in the Connecticut River valley on Sunday. There is a
possibility of scattered diurnally-driven afternoon and evening
showers or thunderstorms, but most of the time it should be dry.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...Moderate-High Confidence.

VFR most of the day. Showers may develop late in the day in CT,
and toward evening along the South Coast. This could bring local
MVFR vsbys at that time.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms move across Southern
New England. This will bring a few periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys.
Also MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in fog especially in RI and SE Mass.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunder will continue. Areas of
MVFR/IFR in showers and fog areas. Conditions may improve to
mainly VFR especially in CT and Western MA late in the day.

KBOS TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. Because of this any mention of showers has
been tagged as vicinity rather than directly mentioned.

KBDL TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. A couple of showers could reach the airport
between 5 PM and 8 PM, but more likely to occur after 8 PM.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night... Moderate confidence. Any lingering MVFR
improving to VFR after midnight. Could be isolated IFR in patchy
fog late.

Wednesday through Thursday...High Confidence. VFR.

Thursday night and Friday... Low to Moderate Confidence. Mainly
VFR early Thu night...becoming MVFR with areas of IFR in showers
and possible fog patches. Isolated thunderstorms late Thu night.
Mainly MVFR throughout the region on Fri with scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Isolated IFR possible in heavier showers or in
patchy fog mainly near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Moderate Confidence.

Low pressure moves up the coast from Virginia and the Carolinas.
Most of the day will be fair with North winds turning from the
Northeast. Speeds will be 15 knots or less. Lingering 5 to 7 foot
seas will slowly subside through the day. Small craft advisory
for hazardous seas is in effect, mostly for the outer waters,
through the day.

Tonight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Coastal low pressure moves across the waters. This will bring
showers and widely scattered thunder with lower visibility in
showers and fog. Winds will remain 15 knots or less, and seas will
mostly be less than 5 feet. A few 5 foot readings could show up on
the southern outer waters Tuesday.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night into early Wednesday... Moderate Confidence.

A small craft advisory may be needed for seas of 5 to 6 feet over
the southeastern outer waters Tue night...subsiding to below 5
feet by Wed afternoon. Otherwise...light southwesterly winds.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Moderate confidence.

Light winds from the southwest will shift to the northwest Wed
night and to the northeast to east on Thu. Seas mainly well below
small craft criteria...but could reach 5 feet over the waters
southeast of Nantucket late Thu afternoon.

Thursday night and Friday... Moderate confidence.

Southeast winds on the order of 10-15 kt and seas 1 to 3 feet.
Just a slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ250-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until noon EDT today
     for ANZ251.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT this
     morning for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/GAF
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...WTB/GAF
MARINE...WTB/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230823
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
423 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
We are in between weather systems today, with fair dry weather
during much of the daylight hours. Low pressure moves up the
coast this evening through Tuesday bringing showers and
thunderstorms. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday.
A weak front will move south of the region Wednesday night
with dry, warm weather for Thursday. The front will move north
toward southern New England as a warm front on Friday bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front will continue to
drift slowly north over the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Closed upper low is in place along the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
coasts, although the most significant instability remains from PA
to North Carolina through the day before moving into Southern New
England this evening.

Heating by the sun will create sufficient mixing to reach near 800
mb, where temps will support max surface values in the mid to
upper 70s. A light northeast surface wind will keep temperatures
near the Mass East Coast in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight...

Instability moving up from Eastern PA may reach western CT this
evening and bring a few showers. The more significant feature will
be low pressure surface and aloft that will move north toward New
England. This feature will bring colder temps aloft over our area,
supporting greater instability. Upper jet moving around the low
will be just east of MA with the lift-supporting left exit region
over RI and eastern MA. For both reasons, expect showers moving up
from the south tonight with sufficient instability for a couple of
thunderstorms too. Will use likely POPs, but on the lower side of
this range.

Clouds and the northeast flow off the water point to min sfc temps
near the dew point, in the lower 50s.

Tuesday...

Core of the upper low moves over RI and Eastern MA. Similarity
among the models gives some confidence to this positioning. Core
of the cold pool aloft also moves over our area, so instability
will linger through the day. Concern remains for the chance of a
couple of thunderstorms due to the unstable airmass. We will
mention slight chance of thunder. POPs will be at high-end chance
or low-end likely much of the day.

Tuesday will be much cloudier than today so more limited mixing,
probably to 925 mb or 900 mb. Temps at these levels would support
max surface temps in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Significantly warmer Wednesday and Thursday
 * Cooler on Friday with Scattered showers and thunderstorms
 * Warm for Memorial Day weekend with a few showers/thunderstorms

Overview and Model Preferences...

At upper levels...a persistent upper low moves northeast over the
Canadian Maritimes by late Wednesday afternoon. A strong upper
level ridge of high pressure will develop from the mid-Atlantic
coast to New England late in the week and next weekend.

At the surface...a weak front will slip south of the region Wed
night bringing a wind shift to the north and drier air for Thu.
That front will strengthen and move northward as a warm front by
Fri...bringing increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms and
cooler weather. The front will slowly edge northward next weekend
allowing summerlike temperatures to return for the Memorial Day
weekend but with a few showers and thunderstorms possible each day.

Tuesday night... As the upper low finally moves northeast away
from the region, any lingering light showers will end in the
evening and skies will clear out after midnight. Lows mainly
50-55.

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
westerly downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-
like temperatures away from the coast...mainly 80 to 85.There
could be seabreezes, but it appears the synoptic flow could be
just strong enough to prevent lower temperatures along parts of
the MA east coast. Cape Cod and the islands, as well as Cape Ann,
however, will likely remain as cool as the south coast of New
England, where southwest winds should prevail...upper 60s to mid
70s there.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Weak low pressure passes by to our
northeast Wed evening and an associated weak front will move
across our region. The front will usher in very dry air aloft
and light west winds will turn northerly. With a good deal of
sunshine on Thu, high temperatures will again reach the 80 to 85
degree mark over the interior. But there will be a better chance
of sea breezes along the entire east and southeast coastline, with
temperatures only reaching mid 60s to mid 70s at the immediate
coast.

Thursday night and Friday... The front that moved through Wed night
will strengthen to our south and begin to head northward Thu night.
Winds will turn to the east and southeast, bringing an increase in
moisture and a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms later
Thu night. Friday now looks like a much cooler day than earlier
anticipated, with a warm front in our vicinity and a continuation
of E to SE flow. It will be on the cloudy side with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms, especially in western sections. Highs
only in the 70s...cooler at the immediate coast.

Saturday and Sunday... This far out...there is still a fair amount
of uncertainty. However, it looks like the warm front will drift
slowly northward on Saturday and be completely north of the region
on Sunday. The Memorial Day weekend should feature a return of
summer-like temperatures with highs in the mid 80s. Upper 80s are
possible in the Connecticut River valley on Sunday. There is a
possibility of scattered diurnally-driven afternoon and evening
showers or thunderstorms, but most of the time it should be dry.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...Moderate-High Confidence.

VFR most of the day. Areas of IFR ceilings/vsbys in patchy early
morning fog, especially in Greater Springfield and in the
lowlands of Southeast MA. Showers may develop late in the day in
CT, and toward evening along the South Coast. This could bring
local MVFR vsbys at that time.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms move across Southern
New England. This will bring a few periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys.
Also MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in fog especially in RI and SE Mass.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunder will continue. Areas of
MVFR/IFR in showers and fog areas. Conditions may improve to
mainly VFR especially in CT and Western MA late in the day.

KBOS TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. Because of this any mention of showers has
been tagged as vicinity rather than directly mentioned.

KBDL TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. A couple of showers could reach the airport
between 5 PM and 8 PM, but more likely to occur after 8 PM.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night... Moderate confidence. Any lingering MVFR
improving to VFR after midnight. Could be isolated IFR in patchy
fog late.

Wednesday through Thursday...High Confidence. VFR.

Thursday night and Friday... Low to Moderate Confidence. Mainly
VFR early Thu night...becoming MVFR with areas of IFR in showers
and possible fog patches. Isolated thunderstorms late Thu night.
Mainly MVFR throughout the region on Fri with scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Isolated IFR possible in heavier showers or in
patchy fog mainly near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Moderate Confidence.

Low pressure moves up the coast from Virginia and the Carolinas.
Most of the day will be fair with North winds turning from the
Northeast. Speeds will be 15 knots or less. Seas will slowly
subside through the day with lingering 5 to 7 foot seas subsiding
through the day. Small craft advisory for hazardous seas is in
effect, mostly for the outer waters, through the day.

Tonight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Coastal low pressure moves across the waters. This will bring
showers and widely scattered thunder with lower visibility in
showers and fog. Winds will remain 15 knots or less, and seas will
mostly be less than 5 feet. A few 5 foot readings could show up on
the southern outer waters Tuesday.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night into early Wednesday... Moderate Confidence.

A small craft advisory may be needed for seas of 5 to 6 feet over
the southeastern outer waters Tue night...subsiding to below 5
feet by Wed afternoon. Otherwise...light southwesterly winds.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Moderate confidence.

Light winds from the southwest will shift to the northwest Wed
night and to the northeast to east on Thu. Seas mainly well below
small craft criteria...but could reach 5 feet over the waters
southeast of Nantucket late Thu afternoon.

Thursday night and Friday... Moderate confidence.

Southeast winds on the order of 10-15 kt and seas 1 to 3 feet.
Just a slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ250-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until noon EDT today
     for ANZ251.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT this
     morning for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/GAF
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...WTB/GAF
MARINE...WTB/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230822
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
422 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
We are in between weather systems today, with fair dry weather
during much of the daylight hours. Low pressure moves up the
coast this evening through Tuesday bringing showers and
thunderstorms. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday.
A weak front will move south of the region Wednesday night
with dry, warm weather for Thursday. The front will move north
toward southern New England as a warm front on Friday bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front will continue to
drift slowly north over the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Closed upper low is in place along the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
coasts, although the most significant instability remains from PA
to North Carolina through the day before moving into Southern New
England this evening.

Heating by the sun will create sufficient mixing to reach near 800
mb, where temps will support max surface values in the mid to
upper 70s. A light northeast surface wind will keep temperatures
near the Mass East Coast in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight...

Instability moving up from Eastern PA may reach western CT this
evening and bring a few showers. The more significant feature will
be low pressure surface and aloft that will move north toward New
England. This feature will bring colder temps aloft over our area,
supporting greater instability. Upper jet moving around the low
will be just east of MA with the lift-supporting left exit region
over RI and eastern MA. For both reasons, expect showers moving up
from the south tonight with sufficient instability for a couple of
thunderstorms too. Will use likely POPs, but on the lower side of
this range.

Clouds and the northeast flow off the water point to min sfc temps
near the dew point, in the lower 50s.

Tuesday...

Core of the upper low moves over RI and Eastern MA. Similarity
among the models gives some confidence to this positioning. Core
of the cold pool aloft also moves over our area, so instability
will linger through the day. Concern remains for the chance of a
couple of thunderstorms due to the unstable airmass. We will
mention slight chance of thunder. POPs will be at high-end chance
or low-end likely much of the day.

Tuesday will be much cloudier than today so more limited mixing,
probably to 925 mb or 900 mb. Temps at these levels would support
max surface temps in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Significantly warmer Wednesday and Thursday
 * Cooler on Friday with Scattered showers and thunderstorms
 * Warm for Memorial Day weekend with a few showers/thunderstorms

Overview and Model Preferences...

At upper levels...a persistent upper low moves northeast over the
Canadian Maritimes by late Wednesday afternoon. A strong upper
level ridge of high pressure will develop from the mid-Atlantic
coast to New England late in the week and next weekend.

At the surface...a weak front will slip south of the region Wed
night bringing a wind shift to the north and drier air for Thu.
That front will strengthen and move northward as a warm front by
Fri...bringing increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms and
cooler weather. The front will slowly edge northward next weekend
allowing summerlike temperatures to return for the Memorial Day
weekend but with a few showers and thunderstorms possible each day.

Tuesday night... As the upper low finally moves northeast away
from the region, any lingering light showers will end in the
evening and skies will clear out after midnight. Lows mainly
50-55.

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
westerly downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-
like temperatures away from the coast...mainly 80 to 85.There
could be seabreezes, but it appears the synoptic flow could be
just strong enough to prevent lower temperatures along parts of
the MA east coast. Cape Cod and the islands, as well as Cape Ann,
however, will likely remain as cool as the south coast of New
England, where southwest winds should prevail...upper 60s to mid
70s there.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Weak low pressure passes by to our
northeast Wed evening and an associated weak front will move
across our region. The front will usher in very dry air aloft
and light west winds will turn northerly. With a good deal of
sunshine on Thu, high temperatures will again reach the 80 to 85
degree mark over the interior. But there will be a better chance
of sea breezes along the entire east and southeast coastline, with
temperatures only reaching mid 60s to mid 70s at the immediate
coast.

Thursday night and Friday... The front that moved through Wed night
will strengthen to our south and begin to head northward Thu night.
Winds will turn to the east and southeast, bringing an increase in
moisture and a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms later
Thu night. Friday now looks like a much cooler day than earlier
anticipated, with a warm front in our vicinity and a continuation
of E to SE flow. It will be on the cloudy side with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms, especially in western sections. Highs
only in the 70s...cooler at the immediate coast.

Saturday and Sunday... This far out...there is still a fair amount
of uncertainty. However, it looks like the warm front will drift
slowly northward on Saturday and be completely north of the region
on Sunday. The Memorial Day weekend should feature a return of
summer-like temperatures with highs in the mid 80s. Upper 80s are
possible in the Connecticut River valley on Sunday. There is a
possibility of scattered diurnally-driven afternoon and evening
showers or thunderstorms, but most of the time it should be dry.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...Moderate-High Confidence.

VFR most of the day. Areas of IFR ceilings/vsbys in patchy early
morning fog, especially in Greater Springfield and in the
lowlands of Southeast MA. Showers may develop late in the day in
CT, and toward evening along the South Coast. This could bring
local MVFR vsbys at that time.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms move across Southern
New England. This will bring a few periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys.
Also MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in fog especially in RI and SE Mass.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunder will continue. Areas of
MVFR/IFR in showers and fog areas. Conditions may improve to
mainly VFR especially in CT and Western MA late in the day.

KBOS TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. Because of this any mention of showers has
been tagged as vicinity rather than directly mentioned.

KBDL TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. A couple of showers could reach the airport
between 5 PM and 8 PM, but more likely to occur after 8 PM.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night... Moderate confidence. Any lingering MVFR
improving to VFR after midnight. Could be isolated IFR in patchy
fog late.

Wednesday through Thursday...High Confidence. VFR.

Thursday night and Friday... Low to Moderate Confidence. Mainly
VFR early Thu night...becoming MVFR with areas of IFR in showers
and possible fog patches. Isolated thunderstorms late Thu night.
Mainly MVFR throughout the region on Fri with scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Isolated IFR possible in heavier showers or in
patchy fog mainly near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Moderate Confidence.

Low pressure moves up the coast from Virginia and the Carolinas.
Most of the day will be fair with North winds turning from the
Northeast. Speeds will be 15 knots or less. Seas will slowly
subside through the day with lingering 5 to 7 foot seas subsiding
through the day. Small craft advisory for hazardous seas is in
effect, mostly for the outer waters, through the day.

Tonight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Coastal low pressure moves across the waters. This will bring
showers and widely scattered thunder with lower visibility in
showers and fog. Winds will remain 15 knots or less, and seas will
mostly be less than 5 feet. A few 5 foot readings could show up on
the southern outer waters Tuesday.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night into early Wednesday... Moderate Confidence.

A small craft advisory may be needed for seas of 5 to 6 feet over
the southeastern outer waters Tue night...subsiding to below 5
feet by Wed afternoon. Otherwise...light southwesterly winds.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Moderate confidence.

Light winds from the southwest will shift to the northwest Wed
night and to the northeast to east on Thu. Seas mainly well below
small craft criteria...but could reach 5 feet over the waters
southeast of Nantucket late Thu afternoon.

Thursday night and Friday... Moderate confidence.

Southeast winds on the order of 10-15 kt and seas 1 to 3 feet.
Just a slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until noon EDT today
     for ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ250-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT this
     morning for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/GAF
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...WTB/GAF
MARINE...WTB/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230703
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
303 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
We are in between weather systems today, with fair dry weather
during much of the daylight hours. Coastal low pressure moves up
the coast this evening through Tuesday bringing showers and
thunderstorms. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday,
continuing into next weekend. Scattered showers or thunderstorms
are possible from Thursday into next weekend, especially over
western sections.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Closed upper low is in place along the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
coasts, although the most significant instability remains from PA
to North Carolina through the day before moving into Southern New
England this evening.

Heating by the sun will create sufficient mixing to reach near 800
mb, where temps will support max surface values in the mid to
upper 70s. A light northeast surface wind will keep temperatures
near the Mass East Coast in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight...

Instability moving up from Eastern PA may reach western CT this
evening and bring a few showers. The more significant feature will
be low pressure surface and aloft that will move north toward New
England. This feature will bring colder temps aloft over our area,
supporting greater instability. Upper jet moving around the low
will be just east of MA with the lift-supporting left exit region
over RI and eastern MA. For both reasons, expect showers moving up
from the south tonight with sufficient instability for a couple of
thunderstorms too. Will use likely POPs, but on the lower side of
this range.

Clouds and the northeast flow off the water point to min sfc temps
near the dew point, in the lower 50s.

Tuesday...

Core of the upper low moves over RI and Eastern MA. Similarity
among the models gives some confidence to this positioning. Core
of the cold pool aloft also moves over our area, so instability
will linger through the day. Concern remains for the chance of a
couple of thunderstorms due to the unstable airmass. We will
mention slight chance of thunder. POPs will be at high-end chance
or low-end likely much of the day.

Tuesday will be much cloudier than today so more limited mixing,
probably to 925 mb or 900 mb. Temps at these levels would support
max surface temps in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Significantly warmer Wednesday into next weekend
 * Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday into next weekend,
   especially over western sections.

Overview and Model Preferences...

Very good agreement in the latest guidance suite in moving a
persistent upper low toward the Maritimes by late Wednesday
afternoon. Strong ridging over the north Atlantic edges west over
the southeast USA late this week. This will mean more summer-like
conditions late this week into next weekend. With the increasing
heat and humidity, also expecting the possibility for diurnal
showers and thunderstorms, each day.

Subtle, but significant, differences in the details Friday into
next weekend. The predictability of these details is rather low,
so will favor a consensus approach, for now.

Details...

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-like
temperatures away from the coast. There could be seabreezes, but
it appears the synoptic flow could be just strong enough to
prevent lower temperatures along parts of the MA east coast. Cape
Cod and the islands, as well as Cape Ann, however, will likely
remain as cool as the south coast of New England, where southwest
winds should prevail.

Thursday through Sunday...

This still appears to be a prolonged period of summer-like heat
and humidity, especially away from the coasts. The questions to
be answered during this portion of the forecast are: where will a
frontal boundary be between Thursday and Friday, and how quickly
will it move? A scenario can be seen where we wind up on the cold
side Friday, which would mean lower temperatures and a greater
risk for showers.

Diurnal showers, and perhaps some thunderstorms, are expected
through most of this period. The position of this front will have
a large impact on chances, and is one of the more uncertain
aspects of this forecast. Will keep a chance for showers in the
forecast until this critical detail can be better worked out.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...Moderate-High Confidence.

VFR most of the day. Areas of IFR ceilings/vsbys in patchy early
morning fog, especially in Greater Springfield and in the
lowlands of Southeast MA. Showers may develop late in the day in
CT, and toward evening along the South Coast. This could bring
local MVFR vsbys at that time.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms move across Southern
New England. This will bring a few periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys.
Also MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in fog especially in RI and SE Mass.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunder will continue. Areas of
MVFR/IFR in showers and fog areas. Conditions may improve to
mainly VFR especially in CT and Western MA late in the day.


KBOS TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. Because of this any mention of showers has
been tagged as vicinity rather than directly mentioned.

KBDL TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. A couple of showers could reach the airport
between 5 PM and 8 PM, but more likely to occur after 8 PM.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Wednesday...High Confidence. Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of KLWM-KORH-KIJD.

Friday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Moderate Confidence.

Low pressure moves up the coast from Virginia and the Carolinas.
Most of the day will be fair with North winds turning from the
Northeast. Speeds will be 15 knots or less. Seas will slowly
subside through the day with lingering 5 to 7 foot seas subsiding
through the day. Small craft advisory for hazardous seas is in
effect, mostly for the outer waters, through the day.

Tonight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Coastal low pressure moves across the waters. This will bring
showers and widely scattered thunder with lower visibility in
showers and fog. Winds will remain 15 knots or less, and seas will
mostly be less than 5 feet. A few 5 foot readings could show up on
the southern outer waters Tuesday.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Wednesday into Friday...High Confidence.

High pressure briefly builds over the waters. Mainly quiet
boating weather is expected with winds and seas below Small Craft
Advisory levels.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until noon EDT today
     for ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ250-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT this
     morning for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Belk
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...WTB/Belk
MARINE...WTB/Belk




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230701
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
301 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
We are in between weather systems today, with fair dry weather
during much of the daylight hours. Coastal low pressure moves up
the coast this evening through Tuesday bringing showers and
thunderstorms. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday,
continuing into next weekend. Scattered showers or thunderstorms
are possible from Thursday into next weekend, especially over
western sections.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

Closed upper low is in place along the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
coasts, although the most significant instability remains from PA
to North Carolina through the day before moving into Southern New
England this evening.

Heating by the sun will create sufficient mixing to reach near 800
mb, where temps will support max surface values in the mid to
upper 70s. A light northeast surface wind will keep temperatures
near the Mass East Coast in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

Tonight...

Instability moving up from Eastern PA may reach western CT this
evening and bring a few showers. The more significant feature will
be low pressure surface and aloft that will move north toward New
England. This feature will bring colder temps aloft over our area,
supporting greater instability. Upper jet moving around the low
will be just east of MA with the lift-supporting left exit region
over RI and eastern MA. For both reasons, expect showers moving up
from the south tonight with sufficient instability for a couple of
thunderstorms too. Will use likely POPs, but on the lower side of
this range.

Clouds and the northeast flow off the water point to min sfc temps
near the dew point, in the lower 50s.

Tuesday...

Core of the upper low moves over RI and Eastern MA. Similarity
among the models gives some confidence to this positioning. Core
of the cold pool aloft also moves over our area, so instability
will linger through the day. Concern remains for the chance of a
couple of thunderstorms due to the unstable airmass. We will
mention slight chance of thunder. POPs will be at high-end chance
or low-end likely much of the day.

Tuesday will be much cloudier than today so more limited mixing,
probably to 925 mb or 900 mb. Temps at these levels would support
max surface temps in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Significantly warmer Wednesday into next weekend
 * Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday into next weekend,
   especially over western sections.

Overview and Model Preferences...

Very good agreement in the latest guidance suite in moving a
persistent upper low toward the Maritimes by late Wednesday
afternoon. Strong ridging over the north Atlantic edges west over
the southeast USA late this week. This will mean more summer-like
conditions late this week into next weekend. With the increasing
heat and humidity, also expecting the possibility for diurnal
showers and thunderstorms, each day.

Subtle, but significant, differences in the details Friday into
next weekend. The predictability of these details is rather low,
so will favor a consensus approach, for now.

Details...

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-like
temperatures away from the coast. There could be seabreezes, but
it appears the synoptic flow could be just strong enough to
prevent lower temperatures along parts of the MA east coast. Cape
Cod and the islands, as well as Cape Ann, however, will likely
remain as cool as the south coast of New England, where southwest
winds should prevail.

Thursday through Sunday...

This still appears to be a prolonged period of summer-like heat
and humidity, especially away from the coasts. The questions to
be answered during this portion of the forecast are: where will a
frontal boundary be between Thursday and Friday, and how quickly
will it move? A scenario can be seen where we wind up on the cold
side Friday, which would mean lower temperatures and a greater
risk for showers.

Diurnal showers, and perhaps some thunderstorms, are expected
through most of this period. The position of this front will have
a large impact on chances, and is one of the more uncertain
aspects of this forecast. Will keep a chance for showers in the
forecast until this critical detail can be better worked out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...Moderate-High Confidence.

VFR most of the day. Areas of IFR ceilings/vsbys in patchy early
morning fog, especially in Greater Springfield and in the
lowlands of Southeast MA. Showers may develop late in the day in
CT, and toward evening along the South Coast. This could bring
local MVFR vsbys at that time.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms move across Southern
New England. This will bring a few periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys.
Also MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in fog especially in RI and SE Mass.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunder will continue. Areas of
MVFR/IFR in showers and fog areas. Conditions may improve to
mainly VFR especially in CT and Western MA late in the day.


KBOS TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. Because of this any mention of showers has
been tagged as vicinity rather than directly mentioned.

KBDL TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. A couple of showers could reach the airport
between 5 PM and 8 PM, but more likely to occur after 8 PM.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Wednesday...High Confidence. Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of KLWM-KORH-KIJD.

Friday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Moderate Confidence.

Low pressure moves up the coast from Virginia and the Carolinas.
Most of the day will be fair with North winds turning from the
Northeast. Speeds will be 15 knots or less. Seas will slowly
subside through the day with lingering 5 to 7 foot seas subsiding
through the day. Small craft advisory for hazardous seas is in
effect, mostly for the outer waters, through the day.

Tonight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Coastal low pressure moves across the waters. This will bring
showers and widely scattered thunder with lower visibility in
showers and fog. Winds will remain 15 knots or less, and seas will
mostly be less than 5 feet. A few 5 foot readings could show up on
the southern outer waters Tuesday.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Wednesday into Friday...High Confidence.

High pressure briefly builds over the waters. Mainly quiet
boating weather is expected with winds and seas below Small Craft
Advisory levels.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until noon EDT today
     for ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM EDT this
  evening for ANZ250-254-255. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous
seas until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Belk
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...WTB/Belk
MARINE...WTB/Belk




000
FXUS61 KALY 230621
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
215 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move east of Cape Cod tonight. High pressure will
briefly build in from the Great Lakes Region and Midwest through
early today. Low pressure tracking close to southern New England
Monday night into Tuesday will bring scattered showers to locations
from the Capital Region south and east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 200 AM EDT, most if not all showers were gone from the radar
scope and even many of the earlier clouds have dissipated.
Subsidence over the region, but will keep slight chances of pops in
a few more hours across areas north and west of the Capital region
where a decaying frontal boundary still lies.

Otherwise it will be a clear to partly overnight with a little
patchy fog as temperatures slip back to the mid 40s to lower 50s
region wide. The wind will be light or calm.

So, only minor changes to the near time at this time.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Periods of sun and clouds Monday as the upper low forms well to
our south...but with moisture in place along the northwestern
periphery...perhaps a bit more cloud cover in the mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT than other areas. More coverage of clouds and
some isolated to scattered showers developing Monday afternoon
once the upper low begins to track north. Highs Monday in the mid
to upper 70s...lower 70s higher terrain.

Upper low slowly tracks northeast off the mid Atlantic coast
Monday night and Tuesday...crossing in the vicinity of Cape Cod
Tuesday afternoon and night. As the northwestern periphery of the
moisture associated with the upper low tracks through eastern NY
and western New England Monday night and Tuesday...scattered
showers with the best coverage into the mid Hudson Valley...NW
CT...the Berkshires and southern VT. Highs Tuesday with the rain
and clouds in the upper 60s to lower 70s...approaching mid 70s
northern areas where cloud and rain coverage the least.

Rain moves out Tuesday evening with partial clearing later at
night...then increasing sunshine Wednesday. Although...a weak cold
front associated with a small upper impulse tracking southeast
out of Canada could bring some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly to western and northern areas by Wednesday
afternoon. Highs Wednesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s...some
mid 70s higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A more late spring/summer like pattern should develop during the
long term period. However, a back door cold front is expected to
settle southward Wednesday night/early Thursday, before slowly
retreating back north and east Friday into Saturday. There remains
uncertainty as to how quickly, and how far north and east the front
lifts back, as any delay would keep cloudier/cooler conditions
across the region into at least a portion of next weekend, while a
quicker northward retreat would allow very warm and humid air to
pour into the region.

At this time, have sided close to a blend of 12Z/22 GFS, GEFS mean
and ECMWF.

So, for Wednesday night into Thursday, have some slight chances for
showers/thunder for Wed evening, especially across northern areas,
then generally dry for Thursday as the front settles to our south
and shortwave ridging translates east across the region. Then,
chances for showers and thunderstorms increase for Thursday night-
Friday as the front lifts northward as a warm front. There is a
possibility that a weak wave of low pressure ripples east along the
warm front, which could provide more widespread
showers/thunderstorms at some point late Thursday night or Friday.

Showers/thunderstorms are indicated as becoming more
isolated/scattered, and focused more on diurnal effects for Saturday
and Sunday, assuming the front lifts to our north. However, if it is
slower progressing north, then more persistent showers and
thunderstorms could affect portions of the region through next
weekend.

As for temperatures, expect a mild Wednesday night/Thursday morning,
with mainly 50s. For Thursday, expect max temps to reach the mid 70s
to lower 80s, warmest in valley areas. Thursday night/Friday morning
min temps may be a bit milder due to clouds, with mid 50s to lower
60s expected.

Trickier temperature forecast for Friday max temps, as the front
lifts northward, and clouds/showers and thunderstorms may occur.
Have generally indicated 70s for most areas, with some 60s across
higher terrain of the Adirondacks and southern VT.

For Friday night through Sunday, more humid conditions along with
warmer temperatures are indicated, assuming the front lifts to our
north. Expect overnight low temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s,
with daytime high temperatures mainly in the lower/mid 80s in
valleys, and 75-80 across higher terrain. Again, ultimately these
temperatures will depend on the northward progression of the front.
If the front lifts northward sooner, even warmer temperatures could
occur.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 06Z, LIFR FG was reported KGFL. Will have to carry some IFR
fog there for the rest of the overnight even though our local Fog
study indicated it would not happen.

Otherwise, mainly VFR flying conditions through the TAF period,
except for some occasional MVFR Mist 08Z-11Z at all the TAF sites
except KALB and of course KGFL. KALB we will keep all VFR while KGFL
will have include IFR conditions.

After reviewing Ian`s Fog study, it indicated no fog would form at
any of the sites. However, the temperature and dewpoint readings
were closing in at a few of the sites, along with little or wind
and a mainly clear sky and again already IFR fog at KGFL.

The "Crossover" temperatures appeared to be around 50 degrees but we
are forecasting lows slightly lower than that at KPSF/KPOU and KGFL.
The previous forecast already had MVFR Mist in at KSPF so it made
sense to keep their (at least as a Tempo Group) for the overnight
hours and included some MVFR Mist at KPOU. We will keep out of KALB
for now.

Any fog will dissipate by 12Z leaving VFR conditions. High clouds
will slowly increase and lower again and yet another upper air low
approaches from the southeast. Once again, this feature does not
appear to bring a widespread soaking rainfall, but certainly
scattered to numerous showers, mainly south and east of Albany late
in the day but more tonight. For now, just went with VCSH at all the
terminals (other than KGFL) since confidence of the rain producing
even MVFR conditions was rather low.

The wind will become northerly later today around 5KTS.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low pressure will move east of Cape Cod tonight. High pressure
will briefly build in from the Great Lakes Region and Midwest
tonight into early Monday. Low pressure tracking close to southern
New England Monday night into Tuesday will bring showers to
locations from the Capital Region south and east.

Expecting mainly dry weather Monday with scattered showers
developing late Monday afternoon. Minimum RH values Monday
afternoon are expected to be 35 to 50 percent. Better coverage of
showers is expected Tuesday with minimum RH values Tuesday
afternoon mainly in the 55 to 75 percent range.

The winds are expected to be northwest to northeast at 5 to 10 mph
today...and light to calm tonight...and north to northeast at less
than 10 mph for Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Thursday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some isolated to scattered showers
tonight with better coverage of showers Tuesday. At this time
amounts of two tenths of an inch to half an inch are expected
through Tuesday.

Overall...this rainfall will have little impact on area rivers...
streams...and reservoirs. Most river levels will remain fairly
steady through the weekend and into the middle of next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222343
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
743 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry tonight into the early half of Monday, before a second area
of low pressure moves up the coast and ushers in wet weather
through Tuesday. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday,
continuing into next weekend. Scattered showers or thunderstorms
are possible from Thursday into next weekend, especially over
western sections.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Main axis of showers expected to stay well west of southern new
England. Did note a lone shower in central Hampshire county moving
southwest. This shower may impact western Hampden county before
8:30 pm. With sunset fast approaching, not expecting more showers
to develop.

Brought the forecast back in line with observed trends, especially
sky cover.

Previous discussion...

An overall quiet forecast period. Initial coastal low lifts NE into
SE Canada as a secondary coastal low emerges off the Mid-Atlantic in
response to N stream energy diving S, cutting off from the main mid-
latitude flow.

Between the two systems looking at scattered to broken cloud decks
with light N winds albeit a bit more brisk over E/SE coastal MA with
the possibility of some drizzle or light showery weather per cold
conveyor belt motions. Dry W with isentropic downsloping NW to SE.
Lows milder E/SE with anticipated socked in conditions, around the
50 degree mark, while mid to upper 40s with partial clearing W.

Otherwise, a high risk of rip currents continues into this evening
along the eastern portions of Cape Cod and Nantucket, as well as
along the south coast, from Bristol County, MA to Westerly, RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Monday...

A return of wet weather. Coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic gets wound
up and pulled back, occluding towards the N and W beneath the mid to
upper level low. Will see an increase in wet weather and clouds as a
result of several factors.

The first per a trowaling confluence of conveyor belts as mid-level
vortex energy parent to the mid to upper level low pushes N. Parent
forcing on the increase along with an isallobaric NE wind results in
high-end chance to likely PoPs late.

The second per vortex energy stretched and inverted N of the low
maintaining low level confluence across Upstate NY and PA E into the
CT River Valley. Cooler air aloft yielding steeper lapse rates in an
environment of favorable lift, with any diurnal forcing especially
with sunshine we would likely see some shower activity emerge. Focus
especially along the high terrain with orographic influences upon
convergent flow.

The likely window of partial clearing more likely N and W just prior
to increasing cloud and PoP chances late should allow highs to warm
into the low to mid 70s. Cooler E and SE with increasing NE onshore
flow. Will follow closely to ensemble probabilities with regards
to PoP chances in such a chaotic pattern that has been poorly
handled by a majority of the forecast guidance.

Monday Night...

Surface low continues to back and occlude beneath the cutoff mid to
upper level low pulling N and across S New England in response. In
its mature to dying phase conveyor belt motions undergo strong
forcing across much of S New England within the comma head of the
low itself. This prior to drier air wrapping into and cutting off
the system.

Likely PoPs warranted early, perhaps diminishing into morning. Will
need to monitor SE New England for the possibility of an elevated
convective setup. Weak instability but strong shear, convective
indicies exceeding respective thresholds, can not rule out a rumble
of thunder for SE communities but have low confidence with regards
to a severe threat with any convection.

Abundance of clouds and moisture with a continued E/NE flow, looking
at lows in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Good chance of showers Tuesday
 * Significantly warmer Wednesday into next weekend
 * Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday into next weekend,
   especially over western sections.

Overview and Model Preferences...

Very good agreement in the latest guidance suite in moving a
persistent upper low toward the Maritimes by late Wednesday
afternoon. Strong ridging over the north Atlantic edges west over
the southeast USA late this week. This will mean more summer-like
conditions late this week into next weekend. With the increasing
heat and humidity, also expecting the possibility for diurnal
showers and thunderstorms, each day.

Subtle, but significant, differences in the details Friday into
next weekend. The predictability of these details is rather low,
so will favor a consensus approach, for now.

Details...

Tuesday...

Core of the upper level cold pool moves over southern New England.
Still differences in the specific low tracks among the latest
models, so confidence is not high on this particular aspect, yet.
Guidance does agree on a low pressure passing close enough to
southern New England where we would need at least a chance for
some showers in the forecast.

We will need to keep an eye on the possibility of some
thunderstorms, too. While the cold pool aloft will mean an
unstable atmosphere, the northeast onshore flow should limit the
available energy to put into thunderstorm updrafts.

Expecting below normal temperatures due to abundant clouds and
scattered showers.

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-like
temperatures away from the coast. There could be seabreezes, but
it appears the synoptic flow could be just strong enough to
prevent lower temperatures along parts of the MA east coast. Cape
Cod and the islands, as well as Cape Ann, however, will likely
remain as cool as the south coast of New England, where southwest
winds should prevail.

Thursday through Sunday...

This still appears to be a prolonged period of summer-like heat
and humidity, especially away from the coasts. The questions to
be answered during this portion of the forecast are: where will a
frontal boundary be between Thursday and Friday, and how quickly
will it move? A scenario can be seen where we wind up on the cold
side Friday, which would mean lower temperatures and a greater
risk for showers.

Diurnal showers, and perhaps some thunderstorms, are expected
through most of this period. The position of this front will have
a large impact on chances, and is one of the more uncertain
aspects of this forecast. Will keep a chance for showers in the
forecast until this critical detail can be better worked out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Mainly VFR across southern New England this evening. With onshore
northeast flow, cannot rule a return to local IFR in stratus,
drizzle and/or fog. As winds shift more north than northeast, the
risk for IFR conditions will decrease, except across the outer
Cape and Nantucket.

Monday...Moderate Confidence.

Low-end VFR cigs with MVFR across E/SE coastal terminals. Will
heighten the risk of IFR to moderate keeping it confined to SE
coastal terminals. -SHRA developing late, focus along the S coast
as well as the N/W interior out into the CT River Valley. NE flow
prevailing with gusts up to 20 kts especially over the E/SE coast.

Monday Night...Moderate Confidence.

-RA likely for all terminals. Deteriorating conditions into the
evening hours and prevailing overnight. Mix of MVFR down to LIFR
with NE winds prevailing, gusts upwards of 20 kts especially across
the E/SE coastal terminals. A final note, there is a low risk of
TSRA for SE coastal terminals.

KBOS TAF...Pulling out MVFR and keeping cigs VFR with the low-end
of the spectrum SCT per webcams shortly before 18z. Not much issue
in thinking with landing on the 4`s if that be the case with NE
winds prevailing, gusts up to 15 kts.

KBDL TAF...Becoming SCT and dry and such trends should continue
into the overnight hours. N winds with gusts limited to 15 kts.
Will see a return of low cigs and wet weather late Monday with a
continued downward trend into Monday night.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Scattered showers will continue across the area with NE flow. An
isolated TSRA is also possible. This also suggests low clouds.
Therefore, periods of MVFR/IFR are likely, but it`s possible that
occasional VFR will occur, especially across the interior.

Wednesday...High Confidence. Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of KLWM-KORH-KIJD.

Friday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...High confidence.

Coastal low lifts into SE Canada behind which NE winds diminish.
Seas remain 5 to 9 feet resulting in small craft advisories on the
outer waters.

Monday into Monday Night...Moderate confidence.

Second coastal low moves up the coast through the day with impacts
towards late. Into evening will see increasing areal coverage of
rain along with NE winds. Restrictions to visibility with the wet
weather along with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas maintain 5 to 7 feet.
Small craft advisories continue.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Secondary low lingers with subsequent wind and S swell. Seas may
reach 7 to 8 feet south of Nantucket. Small craft advisories may
need to continue for some waters.

Wednesday into Friday...High Confidence.

High pressure briefly builds over the waters. Mainly quiet
boating weather is expected with winds and seas below Small Craft
Advisory levels.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020-
     022-024.
RI...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Belk/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Sipprell
MARINE...Belk/Sipprell




000
FXUS61 KALY 222328
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
728 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move east of Cape Cod tonight. High pressure
will briefly build in from the Great Lakes Region and Midwest
tonight into early Monday. Low pressure tracking close to southern
New England Monday night into Tuesday will bring showers to
locations from the Capital Region south and east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 725 PM EDT, a small cluster of showers and isolated
thunderstorms continues to move southwest across the west/central
Mohawk Valley, with additional showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the western Adirondacks. Elsewhere, some weakening light
showers are across portions of the upper Hudson Valley region, and
also portions of the eastern Catskills.

Some of the taller showers/thunderstorms may still produce
isolated wind gusts up to 35 mph, and pea size hail for another
1-2 hours.

The showers and thunderstorms will gradually weaken as the sun
lowers and sets.

Otherwise, one upper impulse and surface low is exiting east of
Cape Cod. Stronger upper low forming in the Appalachians and mid
Atlantic trending east and south. Enough moisture and instability
along the northwest periphery of the moisture field of the
developing upper low which allowed some scattered showers and
thunderstorms from VT into central NY...moving west and southwest
around the periphery of the developing upper low.

Some weak upper level and low level ridging should allow for some
breaks in the clouds to develop overnight as the showers taper off
before midnight. There will be some intermittent breaks in the
clouds over central and northern areas tonight to the
Berkshires....maybe even some breaks into the mid Hudson valley
and NW CT depending on how far south the upper low begins to form
tonight. So...scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this
evening diminishing in coverage through the evening. Lows in the
mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Periods of sun and clouds Monday as the upper low forms well to
our south...but with moisture in place along the northwestern
periphery...perhaps a bit more cloud cover in the mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT than other areas. More coverage of clouds and
some isolated to scattered showers developing Monday afternoon
once the upper low begins to track north. Highs Monday in the mid
to upper 70s...lower 70s higher terrain.

Upper low slowly tracks northeast off the mid Atlantic coast
Monday night and Tuesday...crossing in the vicinity of Cape Cod
Tuesday afternoon and night. As the northwestern periphery of the
moisture associated with the upper low tracks through eastern NY
and western New England Monday night and Tuesday...scattered
showers with the best coverage into the mid Hudson Valley...NW
CT...the Berkshires and southern VT. Highs Tuesday with the rain
and clouds in the upper 60s to lower 70s...approaching mid 70s
northern areas where cloud and rain coverage the least.

Rain moves out Tuesday evening with partial clearing later at
night...then increasing sunshine Wednesday. Although...a weak cold
front associated with a small upper impulse tracking southeast
out of Canada could bring some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly to western and northern areas by Wednesday
afternoon. Highs Wednesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s...some
mid 70s higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A more late spring/summer like pattern should develop during the
long term period. However, a back door cold front is expected to
settle southward Wednesday night/early Thursday, before slowly
retreating back north and east Friday into Saturday. There remains
uncertainty as to how quickly, and how far north and east the front
lifts back, as any delay would keep cloudier/cooler conditions
across the region into at least a portion of next weekend, while a
quicker northward retreat would allow very warm and humid air to
pour into the region.

At this time, have sided close to a blend of 12Z/22 GFS, GEFS mean
and ECMWF.

So, for Wednesday night into Thursday, have some slight chances for
showers/thunder for Wed evening, especially across northern areas,
then generally dry for Thursday as the front settles to our south
and shortwave ridging translates east across the region. Then,
chances for showers and thunderstorms increase for Thursday night-
Friday as the front lifts northward as a warm front. There is a
possibility that a weak wave of low pressure ripples east along the
warm front, which could provide more widespread
showers/thunderstorms at some point late Thursday night or Friday.

Showers/thunderstorms are indicated as becoming more
isolated/scattered, and focused more on diurnal effects for Saturday
and Sunday, assuming the front lifts to our north. However, if it is
slower progressing north, then more persistent showers and
thunderstorms could affect portions of the region through next
weekend.

As for temperatures, expect a mild Wednesday night/Thursday morning,
with mainly 50s. For Thursday, expect max temps to reach the mid 70s
to lower 80s, warmest in valley areas. Thursday night/Friday morning
min temps may be a bit milder due to clouds, with mid 50s to lower
60s expected.

Trickier temperature forecast for Friday max temps, as the front
lifts northward, and clouds/showers and thunderstorms may occur.
Have generally indicated 70s for most areas, with some 60s across
higher terrain of the Adirondacks and southern VT.

For Friday night through Sunday, more humid conditions along with
warmer temperatures are indicated, assuming the front lifts to our
north. Expect overnight low temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s,
with daytime high temperatures mainly in the lower/mid 80s in
valleys, and 75-80 across higher terrain. Again, ultimately these
temperatures will depend on the northward progression of the front.
If the front lifts northward sooner, even warmer temperatures could
occur.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An developing upper level low will drift south of the region
tonight and Monday, before tracking back north northeast toward
southern New England on Tuesday.

Some showers may persist this evening at KGFL until around
03Z/Mon, otherwise little if any additional chances for showers
at the TAF sites overnight.

So, generally tranquil conditions expected tonight, as the upper
level low shifts well south of the region. At least BKN mid level
clouds expected to persist through much of the night, although
some clearing may occur by around 08Z or 09Z Sunday. If a few
hours of clearing happens before sunrise, some fog development
will be possible especially at KPSF/KGFL. Will mention MVFR
conditions at these two terminals starting 09Z, but IFR is
possible if persistent fog can develop. Any fog should dissipate
by 12Z, with VFR conditions returning with mainly just scattered
mid level clouds expected for Monday.

Winds will be north-northeast around 5-8 kt this evening,
becoming near calm tonight. North to northeast winds will increase
Monday morning to 5-10 kt, with some gusts of 15-20 kt possible
Monday afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low pressure will move east of Cape Cod tonight. High pressure
will briefly build in from the Great Lakes Region and Midwest
tonight into early Monday. Low pressure tracking close to southern
New England Monday night into Tuesday will bring showers to
locations from the Capital Region south and east.

Expecting mainly dry weather Monday with scattered showers
developing late Monday afternoon. Minimum RH values Monday
afternoon are expected to be 35 to 50 percent. Better coverage of
showers is expected Tuesday with minimum RH values Tuesday
afternoon mainly in the 55 to 75 percent range.

The winds are expected to be northwest to northeast at 5 to 10 mph
today...and light to calm tonight...and north to northeast at less
than 10 mph for Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Thursday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some isolated to scattered showers
tonight with better coverage of showers Tuesday. At this time
amounts of two tenths of an inch to half an inch are expected
through Tuesday.

Overall...this rainfall will have little impact on area rivers...
streams...and reservoirs. Most river levels will remain fairly
steady through the weekend and into the middle of next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222039
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
439 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry tonight into the early half of Monday, before a second area
of low pressure moves up the coast and ushers in wet weather
through Tuesday. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday,
continuing into next weekend. Scattered showers or thunderstorms
are possible from Thursday into next weekend, especially over
western sections.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Rest of today...

Much of the area will remain dry beneath sinking air behind the
departing coastal low into SE Canada. As observed via radar trends
most if not all of the showery weather has concluded. Via satellite
a lot of the low cloud decks have eroded with only some mid to upper
level cloud decks lingering along the leading edge of mid-level
vortex energy and remnant S moist flow.

So only concern towards evening is to the N/W. Can not rule out
that a combination of diurnal forcing along the leading edge of
some mid level vortex energy around the broader trough pattern in
an environment of steep lapse rates up to H7 yields shower and
even possibly thunderstorm activity into the W CT River Valley.
But will hold the activity just N/W outside of our forecast area.
High terrain will be an influencing factor so can not rule out
some development to the immediate N/W over the Berkshires. Just
something to watch out for towards sunset. Chance PoPs accordingly.

Scattered to broken cloud decks continuing with temperatures
topping out around the mid to upper 60s.


Tonight...

An overall quiet forecast period. Initial coastal low lifts NE into
SE Canada as a secondary coastal low emerges off the Mid-Atlantic in
response to N stream energy diving S, cutting off from the main mid-
latitude flow.

Between the two systems looking at scattered to broken cloud decks
with light N winds albeit a bit more brisk over E/SE coastal MA with
the possibility of some drizzle or light showery weather per cold
conveyor belt motions. Dry W with isentropic downsloping NW to SE.
Lows milder E/SE with anticipated socked in conditions, around the
50 degree mark, while mid to upper 40s with partial clearing W.

Otherwise, a high risk of rip currents continues into this evening
along the eastern portions of Cape Cod and Nantucket, as well as
along the south coast, from Bristol County, MA to Westerly, RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Monday...

A return of wet weather. Coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic gets wound
up and pulled back, occluding towards the N and W beneath the mid to
upper level low. Will see an increase in wet weather and clouds as a
result of several factors.

The first per a trowaling confluence of conveyor belts as mid-level
vortex energy parent to the mid to upper level low pushes N. Parent
forcing on the increase along with an isallobaric NE wind results in
high-end chance to likely PoPs late.

The second per vortex energy stretched and inverted N of the low
maintaining low level confluence across Upstate NY and PA E into the
CT River Valley. Cooler air aloft yielding steeper lapse rates in an
environment of favorable lift, with any diurnal forcing especially
with sunshine we would likely see some shower activity emerge. Focus
especially along the high terrain with orographic influences upon
convergent flow.

The likely window of partial clearing more likely N and W just prior
to increasing cloud and PoP chances late should allow highs to warm
into the low to mid 70s. Cooler E and SE with increasing NE onshore
flow. Will follow closely to ensemble probabilities with regards
to PoP chances in such a chaotic pattern that has been poorly
handled by a majority of the forecast guidance.

Monday Night...

Surface low continues to back and occlude beneath the cutoff mid to
upper level low pulling N and across S New England in response. In
its mature to dying phase conveyor belt motions undergo strong
forcing across much of S New England within the comma head of the
low itself. This prior to drier air wrapping into and cutting off
the system.

Likely PoPs warranted early, perhaps diminishing into morning. Will
need to monitor SE New England for the possibility of an elevated
convective setup. Weak instability but strong shear, convective
indicies exceeding respective thresholds, can not rule out a rumble
of thunder for SE communities but have low confidence with regards
to a severe threat with any convection.

Abundance of clouds and moisture with a continued E/NE flow, looking
at lows in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Good chance of showers Tuesday
 * Significantly warmer Wednesday into next weekend
 * Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday into next weekend,
   especially over western sections.

Overview and Model Preferences...

Very good agreement in the latest guidance suite in moving a
persistent upper low toward the Maritimes by late Wednesday
afternoon. Strong ridging over the north Atlantic edges west over
the southeast USA late this week. This will mean more summer-like
conditions late this week into next weekend. With the increasing
heat and humidity, also expecting the possibility for diurnal
showers and thunderstorms, each day.

Subtle, but significant, differences in the details Friday into
next weekend. The predictability of these details is rather low,
so will favor a consensus approach, for now.

Details...

Tuesday...

Core of the upper level cold pool moves over southern New England.
Still differences in the specific low tracks among the latest
models, so confidence is not high on this particular aspect, yet.
Guidance does agree on a low pressure passing close enough to
southern New England where we would need at least a chance for
some showers in the forecast.

We will need to keep an eye on the possibility of some
thunderstorms, too. While the cold pool aloft will mean an
unstable atmosphere, the northeast onshore flow should limit the
available energy to put into thunderstorm updrafts.

Expecting below normal temperatures due to abundant clouds and
scattered showers.

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-like
temperatures away from the coast. There could be seabreezes, but
it appears the synoptic flow could be just strong enough to
prevent lower temperatures along parts of the MA east coast. Cape
Cod and the islands, as well as Cape Ann, however, will likely
remain as cool as the south coast of New England, where southwest
winds should prevail.

Thursday through Sunday...

This still appears to be a prolonged period of summer-like heat
and humidity, especially away from the coasts. The questions to
be answered during this portion of the forecast are: where will a
frontal boundary be between Thursday and Friday, and how quickly
will it move? A scenario can be seen where we wind up on the cold
side Friday, which would mean lower temperatures and a greater
risk for showers.

Diurnal showers, and perhaps some thunderstorms, are expected
through most of this period. The position of this front will have
a large impact on chances, and is one of the more uncertain
aspects of this forecast. Will keep a chance for showers in the
forecast until this critical detail can be better worked out.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

18z update...

Today and Tonight...High Confidence.

Trying to keep optimistic but surprised as how IFR is lingering
across SE coastal terminals. May remain the norm with NE winds
gusting around 25 kts through the overnight period with the
additional threat of DZ/-RA. Otherwise all other terminals VFR
with light N/NE winds. Low-end VFR cigs. Lesser confidence MVFR.
Also watching N/W terminals only for this afternoon as to the
possibility of SCT SHRA and low risk TSRA.

Monday...Moderate Confidence.

Low-end VFR cigs with MVFR across E/SE coastal terminals. Will
heighten the risk of IFR to moderate keeping it confined to SE
coastal terminals. -SHRA developing late, focus along the S coast
as well as the N/W interior out into the CT River Valley. NE flow
prevailing with gusts up to 20 kts especially over the E/SE coast.

Monday Night...Moderate Confidence.

-RA likely for all terminals. Deteriorating conditions into the
evening hours and prevailing overnight. Mix of MVFR down to LIFR
with NE winds prevailing, gusts upwards of 20 kts especially across
the E/SE coastal terminals. A final note, there is a low risk of
TSRA for SE coastal terminals.

KBOS TAF...Pulling out MVFR and keeping cigs VFR with the low-end
of the spectrum SCT per webcams shortly before 18z. Not much issue
in thinking with landing on the 4`s if that be the case with NE
winds prevailing, gusts up to 15 kts.

KBDL TAF...Becoming SCT and dry and such trends should continue
into the overnight hours. N winds with gusts limited to 15 kts.
Will see a return of low cigs and wet weather late Monday with a
continued downward trend into Monday night.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Scattered showers will continue across the area with NE flow. An
isolated TSRA is also possible. This also suggests low clouds.
Therefore, periods of MVFR/IFR are likely, but it`s possible that
occasional VFR will occur, especially across the interior.

Wednesday...High Confidence. Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of KLWM-KORH-KIJD.

Friday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

3 pm update...

Tonight...High confidence.

Coastal low lifts into SE Canada behind which NE winds diminish.
Seas remain 5 to 9 feet resulting in small craft advisories on the
outer waters.

Monday into Monday Night...Moderate confidence.

Second coastal low moves up the coast through the day with impacts
towards late. Into evening will see increasing areal coverage of
rain along with NE winds. Restrictions to visibility with the wet
weather along with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas maintain 5 to 7 feet.
Small craft advisories continue.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Secondary low lingers with subsequent wind and S swell. Seas may
reach 7 to 8 feet south of Nantucket. Small craft advisories may
need to continue for some waters.

Wednesday into Friday...High Confidence.

High pressure briefly builds over the waters. Mainly quiet
boating weather is expected with winds and seas below Small Craft
Advisory levels.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020-
     022-024.
RI...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Monday
     for ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Sipprell
MARINE...Belk/Sipprell




000
FXUS61 KALY 222024
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
424 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move east of Cape Cod tonight. High pressure
will briefly build in from the Great Lakes Region and Midwest
tonight into early Monday. Low pressure tracking close to southern
New England Monday night into Tuesday will bring showers to
locations from the Capital Region south and east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
One upper impulse and surface low exiting east of Cape Cod.
Stronger upper low forming in the Appalachians and mid Atlantic
trending east and south. Enough moisture and instability along the
northwest periphery of the moisture field of the developing upper
low that there are some scattered showers and thunderstorms from
VT into central NY...moving west and southwest around the
periphery of the developing upper low.

Some weak upper level and low level ridging allowing for some
break in the clouds between the showers and thunderstorms...and
there will be some intermittent breaks in the clouds over central
and northern areas tonight to the Berkshires....maybe even some
breaks into the mid Hudson valley and NW CT depending on how far
south the upper low begins to form tonight. So...scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms this evening diminishing in coverage
through the evening. Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Periods of sun and clouds Monday as the upper low forms well to
our south...but with moisture in place along the northwestern
periphery...perhaps a bit more cloud cover in the mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT than other areas. More coverage of clouds and
some isolated to scattered showers developing Monday afternoon
once the upper low begins to track north. Highs Monday in the mid
to upper 70s...lower 70s higher terrain.

Upper low slowly tracks northeast off the mid Atlantic coast
Monday night and Tuesday...crossing in the vicinity of Cape Cod
Tuesday afternoon and night. As the northwestern periphery of the
moisture associated with the upper low tracks through eastern NY
and western New England Monday night and Tuesday...scattered
showers with the best coverage into the mid Hudson Valley...NW
CT...the Berkshires and southern VT. Highs Tuesday with the rain
and clouds in the upper 60s to lower 70s...approaching mid 70s
northern areas where cloud and rain coverage the least.

Rain moves out Tuesday evening with partial clearing later at
night...then increasing sunshine Wednesday. Although...a weak cold
front associated with a small upper impulse tracking southeast
out of Canada could bring some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly to western and northern areas by Wednesday
afternoon. Highs Wednesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s...some
mid 70s higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A more late spring/summer like pattern should develop during the
long term period. However, a back door cold front is expected to
settle southward Wednesday night/early Thursday, before slowly
retreating back north and east Friday into Saturday. There remains
uncertainty as to how quickly, and how far north and east the front
lifts back, as any delay would keep cloudier/cooler conditions
across the region into at least a portion of next weekend, while a
quicker northward retreat would allow very warm and humid air to
pour into the region.

At this time, have sided close to a blend of 12Z/22 GFS, GEFS mean
and ECMWF.

So, for Wednesday night into Thursday, have some slight chances for
showers/thunder for Wed evening, especially across northern areas,
then generally dry for Thursday as the front settles to our south
and shortwave ridging translates east across the region. Then,
chances for showers and thunderstorms increase for Thursday night-
Friday as the front lifts northward as a warm front. There is a
possibility that a weak wave of low pressure ripples east along the
warm front, which could provide more widespread
showers/thunderstorms at some point late Thursday night or Friday.

Showers/thunderstorms are indicated as becoming more
isolated/scattered, and focused more on diurnal effects for Saturday
and Sunday, assuming the front lifts to our north. However, if it is
slower progressing north, then more persistent showers and
thunderstorms could affect portions of the region through next
weekend.

As for temperatures, expect a mild Wednesday night/Thursday morning,
with mainly 50s. For Thursday, expect max temps to reach the mid 70s
to lower 80s, warmest in valley areas. Thursday night/Friday morning
min temps may be a bit milder due to clouds, with mid 50s to lower
60s expected.

Trickier temperature forecast for Friday max temps, as the front
lifts northward, and clouds/showers and thunderstorms may occur.
Have generally indicated 70s for most areas, with some 60s across
higher terrain of the Adirondacks and southern VT.

For Friday night through Sunday, more humid conditions along with
warmer temperatures are indicated, assuming the front lifts to our
north. Expect overnight low temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s,
with daytime high temperatures mainly in the lower/mid 80s in
valleys, and 75-80 across higher terrain. Again, ultimately these
temperatures will depend on the northward progression of the front.
If the front lifts northward sooner, even warmer temperatures could
occur.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BKN mid level clouds persist across the region with an upper level
low centered over PA and a cold front gradually pushing southward
across the region. Scattered showers will continue, but may not
directly move across any of the terminals. So will continue to
mention VCSH into the evening hours before showers dissipate due
to loss of daytime heating.

Generally tranquil conditions expected tonight, as the upper level
low shifts well south of the region. At least BKN mid level clouds
expected to persist through much of the night, although some
clearing may occur by around 09Z or 10Z Sunday. If a few hours of
clearing happens before sunrise, so fog development will be
possible especially at KPSF/KGFL. Will mention MVFR conditions at
these two terminals starting 09Z, but IFR is possible if
persistent fog can develop. Any fog should dissipate by 12Z, with
VFR conditions returning with just scattered mid level clouds.

Winds will be north-northeast around 5-8 kt, becoming near calm
tonight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low pressure will move east of Cape Cod tonight. High pressure
will briefly build in from the Great Lakes Region and Midwest
tonight into early Monday. Low pressure tracking close to southern
New England Monday night into Tuesday will bring showers to
locations from the Capital Region south and east.

Expecting mainly dry weather Monday with scattered showersdeveloping
late Monday afternoon. Minimum RH values Monday afternoon are
expected to be 35 to 50 percent. Better coverage of showers is
expected Tuesday with minimum RH values Tuesday afternoon mainly
in the 55 to 75 percent range.

The winds are expected to be northwest to northeast at 5 to 10 mph
today...and light to calm tonight...and north to northeast at less
than 10 mph for Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Thursday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some isolated to scattered showers
tonight with better coverage of showers Tuesday. At this time
amounts of two tenths of an inch to half an inch are expected
through Tuesday.

Overall...this rainfall will have little impact on area rivers...
streams...and reservoirs. Most river levels will remain fairly
steady through the weekend and into the middle of next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221858
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
258 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

 * Near- and Short-Term Forecast Updates only...

Dry tonight into the early-half of Monday before a second area of
low pressure moves up the coast and ushers in wet weather through
Tuesday. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday...continuing
into next weekend. Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible
from Thursday into the weekend, especially in western sections.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

Rest of today...

Much of the area will remain dry beneath sinking air behind the
departing coastal low into SE Canada. As observed via radar trends
most if not all of the showery weather has concluded. Via satellite
a lot of the low cloud decks have eroded with only some mid to upper
level cloud decks lingering along the leading edge of mid-level
vortex energy and remnant S moist flow.

So only concern towards evening is to the N/W. Can not rule out
that a combination of diurnal forcing along the leading edge of
some mid level vortex energy around the broader trough pattern in
an environment of steep lapse rates up to H7 yields shower and
even possibly thunderstorm activity into the W CT River Valley.
But will hold the activity just N/W outside of our forecast area.
High terrain will be an influencing factor so can not rule out
some development to the immediate N/W over the Berkshires. Just
something to watch out for towards sunset. Chance PoPs accordingly.

Scattered to broken cloud decks continuing with temperatures
topping out around the mid to upper 60s.


Tonight...

An overall quiet forecast period. Initial coastal low lifts NE into
SE Canada as a secondary coastal low emerges off the Mid-Atlantic in
response to N stream energy diving S, cutting off from the main mid-
latitude flow.

Between the two systems looking at scattered to broken cloud decks
with light N winds albeit a bit more brisk over E/SE coastal MA with
the possibility of some drizzle or light showery weather per cold
conveyor belt motions. Dry W with isentropic downsloping NW to SE.
Lows milder E/SE with anticipated socked in conditions, around the
50 degree mark, while mid to upper 40s with partial clearing W.

Otherwise, a high risk of rip currents continues into this evening
along the eastern portions of Cape Cod and Nantucket, as well as
along the south coast, from Bristol County, MA to Westerly, RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Monday...

A return of wet weather. Coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic gets wound
up and pulled back, occluding towards the N and W beneath the mid to
upper level low. Will see an increase in wet weather and clouds as a
result of several factors.

The first per a trowaling confluence of conveyor belts as mid-level
vortex energy parent to the mid to upper level low pushes N. Parent
forcing on the increase along with an isallobaric NE wind results in
high-end chance to likely PoPs late.

The second per vortex energy stretched and inverted N of the low
maintaining low level confluence across Upstate NY and PA E into the
CT River Valley. Cooler air aloft yielding steeper lapse rates in an
environment of favorable lift, with any diurnal forcing especially
with sunshine we would likely see some shower activity emerge. Focus
especially along the high terrain with orographic influences upon
convergent flow.

The likely window of partial clearing more likely N and W just prior
to increasing cloud and PoP chances late should allow highs to warm
into the low to mid 70s. Cooler E and SE with increasing NE onshore
flow. Will follow closely to ensemble probabalistics with regards to
PoP chances in such a chaotic pattern that has been poorly handled
by a majority of the forecast guidance.

Monday Night...

Surface low continues to back and occlude beneath the cutoff mid to
upper level low pulling N and across S New England in response. In
its mature to dying phase conveyor belt motions undergo strong
forcing across much of S New England within the comma head of the
low itself. This prior to drier air wrapping into and cutting off
the system.

Likely PoPs warranted early, perhaps diminishing into morning. Will
need to monitor SE New England for the possibility of an elevated
convective setup. Weak instability but strong shear, convective
indicies exceeding respective thresholds, can not rule out a rumble
of thunder for SE communities but have low confidence with regards
to a severe threat with any convection.

Abundance of clouds and moisture with a continued E/NE flow, looking
at lows in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Highlights...

 * Good chance of showers Tuesday
 * Significantly warmer Wednesday into next weekend
 * Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend,
   especially in western sections.

Overview and Model Preferences...

Upper level low pressure passes northeast from the Mid-Atlantic
coast, reaching the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night. By Thursday and
Friday, and continuing into next weekend, a strong upper level
ridge develops over the Mid- Atlantic states...extending northward
into western New England. In general, models are in good agreement
at the upper level features but differ somewhat on timing and
location of possible convection later in the week. All agree on a
major warmup to summertime levels. There will also be increasing
moisture. A warm frontal boundary could provide the focus for
scattered thunderstorms Thursday as it moves northward. Scattered
showers or thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoons
and evenings into the weekend.

Details...

Monday night into Tuesday...

Core of the upper level cold pool moves over southern New England
Mon night into Tue...with -18C at 500 mb...which is cold but not
that extreme. Models are now in better agreement on the track of
surface low pressure, which moves between outer Cape Cod and the
benchmark of 40N 70W on Tue. The ECMWF, which had it moving into
RI, is thus a bit less unstable than it was.

We will need to keep an eye on the possibility of some nocturnal
thunderstorm activity for southeastern MA and RI Mon night.
All models show a rapid influx of unstable air into southeastern
sections between midnight and daybreak Tue. Total Totals
Indices reach 55 and there is an indication of very unstable lapse
rates of 7C from 700-500 mb. 0-6 km bulk shear values increase to
45-55 kts from the south-southeast at that time, too. However,
with cool northeast surface flow, there is no Convective Available
Potential Energy (CAPE). This is not the usual situation to
expect a chance of thunderstorms, but we have veering of wind
with height (WAA) and increasing speeds with height... so, could
see some organized, but scattered and elevated thunderstorms,
especially RI and southeast MA late Mon night.

Scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm will gradually move
away by Tue evening. Highs Tue will hold in the 65 to 70 range due
to cloud cover and scattered showers.

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-like
temperatures with highs in the lower 80s away from the coast.
There could be sea breezes, but it appears the synoptic flow
could be just strong enough to prevent lower temperatures along
parts of the MA east coast. Cape Cod and the islands, as well as
Cape Ann, however, will likely hold in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

Thursday through Saturday...

On Thursday, 925 temps warm to +21C, so am forecasting mid 80s in
the CT valley and 80-85 elsewhere, cooler at the coast. A warm
front extending eastward from low pressure in western NY may
provide the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Thu
afternoon and evening. The GFS shows an axis of 36 K Index,
indicating a lot of moisture and instability, extending eastward
along the MA/CT/RI border by 00z. ECMWF, however, keeps it all to
our west. So will go with chance PoPs for now.

Warm weather with highs in the 80s are expected Friday and
Saturday with a front mainly north of the area. Diurnally-driven
showers and thunderstorms are possible both days, especially
across the western half of southern New England.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

18z update...

Today and Tonight...High Confidence.

Trying to keep optimistic but surprised as how IFR is lingering
across SE coastal terminals. May remain the norm with NE winds
gusting around 25 kts through the overnight period with the
additional threat of DZ/-RA. Otherwise all other terminals VFR
with light N/NE winds. Low-end VFR cigs. Lesser confidence MVFR.
Also watching N/W terminals only for this afternoon as to the
possibility of SCT SHRA and low risk TSRA.

Monday...Moderate Confidence.

Low-end VFR cigs with MVFR across E/SE coastal terminals. Will
heighten the risk of IFR to moderate keeping it confined to SE
coastal terminals. -SHRA developing late, focus along the S coast
as well as the N/W interior out into the CT River Valley. NE flow
prevailing with gusts up to 20 kts especially over the E/SE coast.

Monday Night...Moderate Confidence.

-RA likely for all terminals. Deteriorating conditions into the
evening hours and prevailing overnight. Mix of MVFR down to LIFR
with NE winds prevailing, gusts upwards of 20 kts especially across
the E/SE coastal terminals. A final note, there is a low risk of
TSRA for SE coastal terminals.

KBOS TAF...Pulling out MVFR and keeping cigs VFR with the low-end
of the spectrum SCT per webcams shortly before 18z. Not much issue
in thinking with landing on the 4`s if that be the case with NE
winds prevailing, gusts up to 15 kts.

KBDL TAF...Becoming SCT and dry and such trends should continue
into the overnight hours. N winds with gusts limited to 15 kts.
Will see a return of low cigs and wet weather late Monday with a
continued downward trend into Monday night.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Scattered showers will continue across the area with NE flow. An
isolated TSRA is also possible. This also suggests low clouds.
Therefore, periods of MVFR/IFR are likely, but it`s possible that
occasional VFR will occur, especially across the interior.

Wednesday...High Confidence. Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of KLWM-KORH-KIJD.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

3 pm update...

Tonight...High confidence.

Coastal low lifts into SE Canada behind which NE winds diminish.
Seas remain 5 to 9 feet resulting in small craft advisories on the
outer waters.

Monday into Monday Night...Moderate confidence.

Second coastal low moves up the coast through the day with impacts
towards late. Into evening will see increasing areal coverage of
rain along with NE winds. Restrictions to visibility with the wet
weather along with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas maintain 5 to 7 feet.
Small craft advisories continue.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Secondary low lingers with subsequent wind and S swell. Seas may
reach 7 to 8 feet south of Nantucket. Small craft advisories may
need to continue for some waters.

Wednesday into Thursday...High Confidence.

High pressure briefly builds over the waters. Mainly quiet
boating weather is expected with winds and seas below Small Craft
Advisory levels.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...None.
MA...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020-
     022-024.
RI...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ231>234.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sipprell/GAF
NEAR TERM...Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...Sipprell/GAF
MARINE...Sipprell/GAF




000
FXUS61 KALY 221456
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1056 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move east of Cape Cod today...as
an upper level low will bring scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to parts of the region.  High pressure will briefly
build in from the Great Lakes Region and Midwest tonight into early
Monday.  Low pressure tracking close to southern New England Monday
night into Tuesday will bring showers to locations from the Capital
Region south and east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1056 AM EDT...Clouds still hanging tough across much of the
region, although there are some thinner spots and breaks scattered
about, especially across the western Adirondacks. These breaks
will allow for some surface heating and at least limited
instability to develop by this afternoon for areas mainly north of
Albany.

Low pressure continues to be well south and east of Long
Island...as it continues to track towards Cape Cod. A slow moving
cold front has moved south of the ST Lawrence Valley with some
scattered showers moving into the Adirondacks...Lake George
Region...southern Vermont...and the western Mohawk Valley. A
positively tilted upper level trough becomes situated over the Mid
Atlantic States and the Northeast late this morning. This upper
level low combined with the front to the north...that starts to
sag south/southeast will focus some isolated to scattered showers
today.

The upper low closes off over VA and MD during the day. A
respectable H500 cold pool of -18C to -20C air will be over the
fcst area. Some partial clearing through the mid and high clouds
should allow for enough destabilization for isolated thunderstorms
especially north of the Capital District. The H850-H700 lapse
rates steepen to around 6.5 C/km just north and west of the Hudson
River Valley. The NAM has roughly 200-600 J/kg of SBCAPE with
pockets slightly greater across the W-CNTRL Mohawk Valley and
southern Adirondacks. The showers and thunderstorms should
initiate during the early to mid afternoon tied to the peak
diurnal heating.

Some sunshine through the mid and high clouds should allow for highs
in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the valley areas...and upper 50s
to mid 60s over the hills and mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...The showers and isold thunderstorms should rapidly
diminish with the loss of daytime heating...as the cutoff low
migrates as far south as just off the NC Coast. At the
surface...high pressure nudges eastward from the Great Lakes
Region. The atmosphere will stabilize and the showers diminish for
a seasonably cool night with lows in the 40s to lower 50s.

Monday...The h500 cutoff low wobbles east of the Delmarva region
with the surface cyclone off the the coast. An inverted surface
trough extending N to NW of the cyclone will initially focus some
light rain or scattered showers northward into eastern NY and
western New England. The isolated to scattered showers will drift
northward during the afternoon with max temps about 5-7 degrees
above normal due to some sunshine in the afternoon and H850 temps
in the +8C to +10C range. Highs are forecasted in the mid and
upper 70s in the lower elevations...and m60s to lower 70s over the
hilltowns and mountains.

Monday night...The H500 cutoff continues to spin just east of NJ
and south of Long Island. High pressure tries to build in from
OH. The sfc cyclone tied to the cutoff heads towards Long Island
and southern New England. Rainfall should gradually move in from
the south/southeast across eastern NY and western New England.
Lows will mainly be in the lower to mid 50s with some 40s over the
eastern Catskills and the Adirondack ParK.

Tue-Tue night...An occluded or nearly stacked cyclone spins over
S/SE New England. Pieces of short-wave energy spinning around the
system will bring bouts of showers or rain. The cyclonic vorticity
advection will help focus the showers. The low according to the
latest GFS sits and spins over Cape Cod by 00z/WED. Sct to
numerous showers may continue well into the evening...as the
Hudson River Valley remains near the mid and upper deformation
zone of the cutoff. More clouds will keep temps closer to normal
with 60s to lower 70s over the region. Lows remain in the u40s to
mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A summer like pattern will emerge as we head into the extended with
above normal temperatures and eventually some chances for convection.

On Wednesday, in the wake of a departing upper air low pressure,
ridging aloft with the formation of the season`s first Bermuda high,
should produce enough subsidence to keep our area mainly dry. The
only exception might be some isolated showers mainly across our
northern mountain areas. With sunshine and H850 temperatures rising
to about +12C, temperatures in the valleys look to reach around
80, with mid to upper 70s over most mountain areas.

By Thursday, as we warm H850 temperatures a point or two higher,
high temperatures should reach the lower to mid 80s in the valleys
with dewpoints rising to near 60. Higher terrain will have
temperatures 75-80. A very weak short wave could trigger some
thunderstorms, but they should be widely scattered at most on
Thursday, mainly again across the higher terrain.

By Friday and Saturday, most guidance indicated a continued rise in
heights which could keep the atmosphere capped. At the same time
however, instability looks creep up due to increasing humidity, so
for now, we will include slight chances of morning showers and 30
pop for afternoon thunderstorms. Temperatures will continue to reach
at least the lower to mid 80s in the valleys, 75-80 higher terrain
with moderate humidity (dewpoints in the 60s). It will definitely
feel summery!

Overnight lows on Wednesday will be mainly in the 50s, 55 to around
60 Thursday, upper 50s to lower 60s Friday, 60-65 by Saturday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR fLYING conditions are likely to remain in effect through
today. There will be plenty of clouds around and even some
scattered showers. However with enough dry air in the column,
visibilities and ceilings look to remain well above the 3 KFT
threshold, mostly high and mid level cloudiness.

As a weak front approaches, it will interact with some energy
from a southern storm to perhaps produce more patchy rain or
rain showers later today but for now, confidence appeared to low
to even mention MVFR in a TEMPO group at this time.

If we were to get enough rain to make the ground and vegetation
wet and then get some breaks tonight, there could be some fog
issues. For now, we do not mention any fog tonight only because we
are not convinced there will be much rain. Please check back later
if you plan to fly overnight or early Monday.

The surface wind will become northerly around 5kts today.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level low will keep the threat of scattered showers in
the forecast today into early next week. Coastal low pressure
passing over southeast New England will yield more widespread
showers by Monday.

Rainfall amounts through Tuesday will be in the two tenths to one
half inch range. Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon will
be in the 45 to 60 percent range...increasing to 85 to 100 percent
at night...and 35 to 50 percent on Tuesday.

The winds are expected to be northwest to northeast at 5 to 10 mph
today...and light to calm tonight...and north to northeast at less
than 10 mph for Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Thursday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some isolated to scattered showers
today through Tuesday. At this time amounts of two tenths of an
inch to half an inch are expected through Tuesday.

Overall...this rainfall will have little impact on area rivers...
streams...and reservoirs. Most river levels will remain fairly
steady through the weekend and into the middle of next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...NAS/Wasula




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221404
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1004 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Coastal low pressure brings wet weather today as it passes well
offshore of Nantucket. The low continues on to Nova Scotia
tonight. We get a break in the wet weather tonight and Monday.
A second low pressure then moves up the coast and brings more
scattered showers Monday night and Tuesday. A significant warmup
will occur Wednesday...continuing into next weekend. Scattered
showers or thunderstorms are possible from Thursday into the
weekend, especially in western sections.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 am update...

Cool and unsettled giving way to a mix of sun and clouds along
with mild conditions. Coastal low E lifts NE today behind which
there is some weak ascent associated with the cold conveyor belt
from the E sweeping W towards upstream energy diving S out of SE
Ontario, but also dry sinking air out of the N especially around
h6-8 where a majority of present clouds reside. These motions are
apparent within the latest radar returns if you look closely.
Seeing some decent convergence of airstreams across Central New
England, cold conveyor belt from the E converging against the dry
conveyor belt from the N.

So can not rule out a spot shower. Confidence across the high terrain
with some orographic influences plus forcing along a weak cold front
dropping S across Upstate NY and PA with the aforementioned upstream
energy and broadscale troughing, as well as across E/SE coastal New
England in reference to the airstreams noted earlier.

So gradually clearing conditions across the interior while warming
into the 70s. Whereas chilly NE flow around the coastal low will
yield cool and clammy conditions for the E/SE coast. It is in those
cool and clammy conditions that drizzle and light rain showers are
forecast.

There is a high risk of rip currents today into this evening
along the eastern portions of Cape Cod and Nantucket, as well as
along the south coast, from Bristol County, MA to Westerly, RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

Upper closed low settles in to place centered over Virginia with
the closed circulation extending up the coast to New England. This
circulation along with plenty of moisture between 850 mb and 700
mb should maintain at least partly cloudy skies Sunday night and
Monday.

Dew points in the 40s should keep surface temps in the mid 40s to
lower 50s. The sunshine that does occur on Monday should bring
surface temps into the upper 60s and lower to mid 70s inland. A
developing northeast wind will move ashore on the Cape and Islands
and East Coastal Massachusetts and keep max surface temps in the
upper 50s and 60s there.

Upper jet moving around the closed low will move the associated
surface low north on Monday. The favorable left exit region of
this jet, which will support lift and shower development, will
also move north. Current model information holds this feature
south of New England through much of Monday. It may come close
enough to bring a few showers to the South Coast late in the day.
Most if not all of the showers should wait until Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Highlights...

 * Good chance of showers Tuesday
 * Significantly warmer Wednesday into next weekend
 * Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend,
   especially in western sections.

Overview and Model Preferences...

Upper level low pressure passes northeast from the Mid-Atlantic
coast, reaching the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night. By Thursday and
Friday, and continuing into next weekend, a strong upper level
ridge develops over the Mid- Atlantic states...extending northward
into western New England. In general, models are in good agreement
at the upper level features but differ somewhat on timing and
location of possible convection later in the week. All agree on a
major warmup to summertime levels. There will also be increasing
moisture. A warm frontal boundary could provide the focus for
scattered thunderstorms Thursday as it moves northward. Scattered
showers or thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoons
and evenings into the weekend.

Details...

Monday night into Tuesday...

Core of the upper level cold pool moves over southern New England
Mon night into Tue...with -18C at 500 mb...which is cold but not
that extreme. Models are now in better agreement on the track of
surface low pressure, which moves between outer Cape Cod and the
benchmark of 40N 70W on Tue. The ECMWF, which had it moving into
RI, is thus a bit less unstable than it was.

We will need to keep an eye on the possibility of some nocturnal
thunderstorm activity for southeastern MA and RI Mon night.
All models show a rapid influx of unstable air into southeastern
sections between midnight and daybreak Tue. Total Totals
Indices reach 55 and there is an indication of very unstable lapse
rates of 7C from 700-500 mb. 0-6 km bulk shear values increase to
45-55 kts from the south-southeast at that time, too. However,
with cool northeast surface flow, there is no Convective Available
Potential Energy (CAPE). This is not the usual situation to
expect a chance of thunderstorms, but we have veering of wind
with height (WAA) and increasing speeds with height... so, could
see some organized, but scattered and elevated thunderstorms,
especially RI and southeast MA late Mon night.

Scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm will gradually move
away by Tue evening. Highs Tue will hold in the 65 to 70 range due
to cloud cover and scattered showers.

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-like
temperatures with highs in the lower 80s away from the coast.
There could be sea breezes, but it appears the synoptic flow
could be just strong enough to prevent lower temperatures along
parts of the MA east coast. Cape Cod and the islands, as well as
Cape Ann, however, will likely hold in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

Thursday through Saturday...

On Thursday, 925 temps warm to +21C, so am forecasting mid 80s in
the CT valley and 80-85 elsewhere, cooler at the coast. A warm
front extending eastward from low pressure in western NY may
provide the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Thu
afternoon and evening. The GFS shows an axis of 36 K Index,
indicating a lot of moisture and instability, extending eastward
along the MA/CT/RI border by 00z. ECMWF, however, keeps it all to
our west. So will go with chance PoPs for now.

Warm weather with highs in the 80s are expected Friday and
Saturday with a front mainly north of the area. Diurnally-driven
showers and thunderstorms are possible both days, especially
across the western half of southern New England.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...

Today and Tonight...High Confidence.

Overall VFR but MVFR lingering over E/SE coastal terminals along
with the threat of -SHRA. NE winds with gusts up to 30 kts again
mainly for E/SE coastal terminals into this afternoon diminishing
into evening and overnight hours.

Monday...Moderate Confidence.

Low-end VFR cigs with MVFR across E/SE coastal terminals. Low risk
of IFR. -SHRA developing through the course of the day increasing
in areal coverage late. NE flow prevailing with gusts up to 20
kts especially over the E/SE coast.

KBOS TAF...There is a low risk of MVFR across the terminal.
Majority of the TAF period will be low-end VFR with NE winds.
Gusts limited up to 15 kts.

KBDL TAF...Potential SCT-BKN cigs developing later today.
Otherwise VFR with N winds with gusts limited to 15 kts.

Outlook /Monday night through Thursday/...

Monday night into Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Although not a complete washout, scattered showers will continue
across the area with northeasterly flow. An isolated thunderstorm
is also possible. This also suggests low clouds. Therefore,
periods of MVFR/IFR are likely, but it`s possible that occasional
VFR will occur, especially across the interior.

Wednesday...High Confidence. Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of KLWM-KORH-KIJD.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

10 am update...no major changes to the forecast.

Today... Moderate confidence.

Low pressure passes about 125 miles southeast of Nantucket early
afternoon. Spot showers continuing but little obstruction to
visibility. Winds increasing from the NE with gusts 25 to 30 knots.
Seas build 5 to 9 feet on the outer waters and the RI waters.
Small Craft advisory continues.

Tonight... Moderate confidence.

Low pressure moves off across Nova Scotia. This will turn winds
from the north with diminishing speeds. But seas will linger at 5
to 9 feet, mainly across the outer waters. Small Craft advisory
continues on most waters due to seas.

Monday... High confidence.

North winds diminish in the morning. Lingering 5 to 7 foot seas on
the Eastern Outer Waters. Low pressure moves up from the south
during the late afternoon and spreads showers across the Southern
waters with briefly low vsbys. This will also turn winds from the
northeast, but speeds will remain at or below 20 knots. Small
Craft Advisory will continue to be needed on the Eastern Outer
Waters.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday night and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Winds still remain below 25 kt, but a second approaching low
pressure will allow for building southerly swell. Seas may reach
7 to 8 feet south of Nantucket. Small craft advisories may need
to continue for some waters.

Wednesday into Thursday...High Confidence.

High pressure briefly builds over the waters. Mainly quiet
boating weather is expected with winds and seas below Small Craft
Advisory levels.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...None.
MA...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for MAZ020-022-024.
RI...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ231>234.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ250-254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/GAF
NEAR TERM...WTB/Sipprell/GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...WTB/Sipprell/GAF
MARINE...WTB/GAF




000
FXUS61 KALY 220821
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
421 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move east of Cape Cod today...as
an upper level low will bring scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to parts of the region.  High pressure will briefly
build in from the Great Lakes Region and Midwest tonight into early
Monday.  Low pressure tracking close to southern New England Monday
night into Tuesday will bring showers to locations from the Capital
Region south and east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 421 AM EDT...Low pressure continues to be well south and
east of the region this morning...as it continues to track towards
Cape Cod. A cold front has become stationary near the ST Lawrence
Valley. A positively tilted upper level trough becomes situated
over the Mid Atlantic States and the Northeast this morning. This
upper level low combined with the front to the north...that starts
to sag south/southeast will focus some isolated to scattered
showers today.

The upper low closes off over VA and MD during the day. A
respectable H500 cold pool of -18C to -20C air will be over the
fcst area. Some partial clearing through the mid and high clouds
should allow for enough destabilization for isolated thunderstorms
especially from the Capital District north. The H850-H700 lapse
rates steepen to around 6.5 C/km just north and west of the Hudson
River Valley. The NAM has roughly 200-600 J/kg of SBCAPE with
pockets slightly greater across the W-CNTRL Mohawk Valley and
southern Adirondacks. The showers and thunderstorms should
initiate during the late morning and early pm tied to the peak
diurnal heating.

Some sunshine through the mid and high clouds should allow for highs
in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the valley areas...and upper 50s
to mid 60s over the hills and mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...The showers and isold thunderstorms should rapidly
diminish with the loss of daytime heating...as the cutoff low
migrates as far south as just off the NC Coast. At the
surface...high pressure nudges eastward from the Great Lakes
Region. The atmosphere will stabilize and the showers diminish for
a seasonably cool night with lows in the 40s to lower 50s.

Monday...The h500 cutoff low wobbles east of the Delmarva region
with the surface cyclone off the the coast. An inverted surface
trough extending N to NW of the cyclone will initially focus some
light rain or scattered showers northward into eastern NY and
western New England. The isolated to scattered showers will drift
northward during the afternoon with max temps about 5-7 degrees
above normal due to some sunshine in the afternoon and H850 temps
in the +8C to +10C range. Highs are forecasted in the mid and
upper 70s in the lower elevations...and m60s to lower 70s over the
hilltowns and mountains.

Monday night...The H500 cutoff continues to spin just east of NJ
and south of Long Island. High pressure tries to build in from
OH. The sfc cyclone tied to the cutoff heads towards Long Island
and southern New England. Rainfall should gradually move in from
the south/southeast across eastern NY and western New England.
Lows will mainly be in the lower to mid 50s with some 40s over the
eastern Catskills and the Adirondack ParK.

Tue-Tue night...An occluded or nearly stacked cyclone spins over
S/SE New England. Pieces of short-wave energy spinning around the
system will bring bouts of showers or rain. The cyclonic vorticity
advection will help focus the showers. The low according to the
latest GFS sits and spins over Cape Cod by 00z/WED. Sct to
numerous showers may continue well into the evening...as the
Hudson River Valley remains near the mid and upper deformation
zone of the cutoff. More clouds will keep temps closer to normal
with 60s to lower 70s over the region. Lows remain in the u40s to
mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A summer like pattern will emerge as we head into the extended with
above normal temperatures and eventually some chances for convection.

On Wednesday, in the wake of a departing upper air low pressure,
ridging aloft with the formation of the season`s first Bermuda high,
should produce enough subsidence to keep our area mainly dry. The
only exception might be some isolated showers mainly across our
northern mountain areas. With sunshine and H850 temperatures rising
to about +12C, temperatures in the valleys look to reach around
80, with mid to upper 70s over most mountain areas.

By Thursday, as we warm H850 temperatures a point or two higher,
high temperatures should reach the lower to mid 80s in the valleys
with dewpoints rising to near 60. Higher terrain will have
temperatures 75-80. A very weak short wave could trigger some
thunderstorms, but they should be widely scattered at most on
Thursday, mainly again across the higher terrain.

By Friday and Saturday, most guidance indicated a continued rise in
heights which could keep the atmosphere capped. At the same time
however, instability looks creep up due to increasing humidity, so
for now, we will include slight chances of morning showers and 30
pop for afternoon thunderstorms. Temperatures will continue to reach
at least the lower to mid 80s in the valleys, 75-80 higher terrain
with moderate humidity (dewpoints in the 60s). It will definitely
feel summery!

Overnight lows on Wednesday will be mainly in the 50s, 55 to around
60 Thursday, upper 50s to lower 60s Friday, 60-65 by Saturday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR fLYING conditions likely to remain in effect through the
morning peak. There will be plenty of clouds around and even
some scattered showers, near KPOU through the early morning.
However with enough dry air in the column, visibilities and
ceilings look to remain well above the 3 KFT threshold, mostly
high and mid level cloudiness.

As a weak front approaches, it will interact with some energy
from a southern storm to perhaps produce more patchy rain or
rain showers later today. We have introduced a PROB30 for high
level MVFR conditions due to showers and lowering ceilings later
morning/midday into the afternoon hours.

Otherwise mainly VFR conditions to persist throughout the day.

If we were to get enough rain to make the ground and vegetation
wet and then get some breaks tonight, there could be some fog
issues. For now, we do not mention any fog tonight only because we
are not convinced there will be much rain. Please check back later
if you plan to fly overnight or early Monday.

The surface wind will be light and variable tonight, become
northerly only around 5KTS later on Sunday.


Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level low will keep the threat of scattered showers in
the forecast today into early next week. Coastal low pressure
passing over southeast New England will yield more widespread
showers by Monday.

Rainfall amounts through Tuesday will be in the two tenths to one
half inch range. Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon will
be in the 45 to 60 percent range...increasing to 85 to 100 percent
at night...and 35 to 50 percent on Tuesday.

The winds are expected to be northwest to northeast at 5 to 10 mph
today...and light to calm tonight...and north to northeast at less
than 10 mph for Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Thursday.

Unsettled weather is expected with some isolated to scattered showers
today through Tuesday. At this time amounts of two tenths of an
inch to half an inch are expected through Tuesday.

Overall...this rainfall will have little impact on area rivers...
streams...and reservoirs. Most river levels will remain fairly
steady through the weekend and into the middle of next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...NAS/Wasula




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