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000
FXUS61 KBOX 241956
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...THEN DRY AND BLUSTERY
WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY VISITS ON THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL
DRYING WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES WITH THE CAPE/ISLANDS THE
LAST TO CLEAR. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE UPPER LAKES. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE IN SNE FOR MOSUNNY SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A MODEST WESTERLY BREEZE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 925 MB. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL ARE NEAR
10C WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES 60-65 DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SNE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
W ZONES 00-02Z AND OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z. MOISTURE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE LIMITED BUT SHORTWAVE IS FAIRLY ROBUST AND
THERE IS ENOUGH QG FORCING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. WE HAVE 20-30
POPS IN THE GRIDS. BEGIN THE FRONT...W/NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

* MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ON MONDAY
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
* POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF
  NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

SUN...AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PULLING FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT...SO WILL LIKELY HAVE A BLUSTERY NW WIND ON
SUN WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE. ALOFT...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ROBUST SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO UPPER TROUGH AND
MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL MAINLY BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
AREA...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN MA/SW NH. HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SW ON MONDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY...THEN TRACK THROUGH AND NORTH OF OUR
AREA ON TUESDAY. WHILE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WARM FRONT...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS
MANY LOCALES.

TUE NIGHT AND WED... SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. PWATS
CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER AT THIS POINT. H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT SO SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE.

THU AND FRI... CONTINUE TO EXPECT BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE BRIEF
HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK...DEPENDING IN PART ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...BUT LIFTING TO VFR IN THE CT
VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER NON CAPE COD TERMINALS 22-00Z. NW
WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL BE DIMINISHING.

TONIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LINGER ON THE CAPE THROUGH
06Z...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING TO
VFR.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT/WED
MAY BRING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE.
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...NW WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOME W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BELOW SCA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING WEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. GOOD POST FRONTAL MIXING
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS 5-8 FT. LOW CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE SUN OR
SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SCA SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY BUT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLD
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THROUGH THE WATERS. SCA WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/NMB
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...KJC/NMB
MARINE...KJC/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241956
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...THEN DRY AND BLUSTERY
WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY VISITS ON THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL
DRYING WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES WITH THE CAPE/ISLANDS THE
LAST TO CLEAR. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE UPPER LAKES. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE IN SNE FOR MOSUNNY SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A MODEST WESTERLY BREEZE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 925 MB. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL ARE NEAR
10C WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES 60-65 DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SNE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
W ZONES 00-02Z AND OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z. MOISTURE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE LIMITED BUT SHORTWAVE IS FAIRLY ROBUST AND
THERE IS ENOUGH QG FORCING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. WE HAVE 20-30
POPS IN THE GRIDS. BEGIN THE FRONT...W/NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

* MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ON MONDAY
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
* POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF
  NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

SUN...AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PULLING FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT...SO WILL LIKELY HAVE A BLUSTERY NW WIND ON
SUN WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE. ALOFT...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ROBUST SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO UPPER TROUGH AND
MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL MAINLY BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
AREA...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN MA/SW NH. HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SW ON MONDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY...THEN TRACK THROUGH AND NORTH OF OUR
AREA ON TUESDAY. WHILE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WARM FRONT...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS
MANY LOCALES.

TUE NIGHT AND WED... SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. PWATS
CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER AT THIS POINT. H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT SO SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE.

THU AND FRI... CONTINUE TO EXPECT BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE BRIEF
HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK...DEPENDING IN PART ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...BUT LIFTING TO VFR IN THE CT
VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER NON CAPE COD TERMINALS 22-00Z. NW
WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL BE DIMINISHING.

TONIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LINGER ON THE CAPE THROUGH
06Z...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING TO
VFR.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT/WED
MAY BRING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE.
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...NW WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOME W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BELOW SCA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING WEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. GOOD POST FRONTAL MIXING
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS 5-8 FT. LOW CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE SUN OR
SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SCA SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY BUT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLD
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THROUGH THE WATERS. SCA WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/NMB
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...KJC/NMB
MARINE...KJC/NMB



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000
FXUS61 KALY 241950
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...1KM VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUDS WAS OVER OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT POSITIVE TRENDS WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF
THE COASTAL LOW. SO THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES TO OUR WEST
AND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW SHOULD SLOWLY YIELD SKY IMPROVEMENTS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. IF SKIES WERE TO CLEAR
COMPLETELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AND NARROW SHORT WAVE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES COULD DIP AT OR
BELOW 40F. PER THE LATEST LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE TRENDS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVED TEMPERATURES THIS FRIDAY MORNING...WE WILL FAVOR A COOLER MIN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM A FAST MOVING JET ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER COINCIDING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
WINNIPEG WILL BE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM REGIONAL U.S./CANADIAN REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS
SUGGEST MINIMAL MOISTURE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DACK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO KEEP BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS MVFR DUE TO CIGS. THERE MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF -DZ
AROUND KALB FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS
BEGIN TO RISE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTN...AND START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE JUST SCT T0 FEW CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT. IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS...THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IFR BR/FG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...OTHERWISE FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIGHT WEST T0
NORTHWEST WINDS.

SOME CLOUDS /MAINLY OF THE HIGHER VARIETY/ LOOK TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND KGFL...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 241950
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...1KM VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUDS WAS OVER OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT POSITIVE TRENDS WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF
THE COASTAL LOW. SO THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES TO OUR WEST
AND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW SHOULD SLOWLY YIELD SKY IMPROVEMENTS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. IF SKIES WERE TO CLEAR
COMPLETELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AND NARROW SHORT WAVE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES COULD DIP AT OR
BELOW 40F. PER THE LATEST LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE TRENDS AND UPSTREAM
OBSERVED TEMPERATURES THIS FRIDAY MORNING...WE WILL FAVOR A COOLER MIN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM A FAST MOVING JET ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER COINCIDING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
WINNIPEG WILL BE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM REGIONAL U.S./CANADIAN REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS
SUGGEST MINIMAL MOISTURE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DACK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO KEEP BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS MVFR DUE TO CIGS. THERE MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF -DZ
AROUND KALB FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS
BEGIN TO RISE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTN...AND START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE JUST SCT T0 FEW CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT. IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS...THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IFR BR/FG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...OTHERWISE FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIGHT WEST T0
NORTHWEST WINDS.

SOME CLOUDS /MAINLY OF THE HIGHER VARIETY/ LOOK TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND KGFL...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 241752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
152 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
JUST A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENG...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WARM CONVEYOR
BELT IN THE COMMA HEAD CONTINUES TO ROTATE A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENG. ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND IS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE.
EXPECT A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER EASTERN HALF NEW ENG. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE WITH
CLEARING LIKELY WAITING UNTIL AFTER DARK...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS
SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW ENG LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S. CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK...MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO T/TD/POP GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...BUT LIFTING TO VFR IN THE CT
VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER NON CAPE COD TERMINALS 22-00Z. NW
WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL BE DIMINISHING.

TONIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LINGER ON THE CAPE THROUGH
06Z...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING TO
VFR.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA STILL PRODUCING GUSTS TO
25-30 KT OVER EASTERN WATERS...BUT THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 8-10 FT SEAS EASTERN WATERS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED FOR WATERS WEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL BUT CONTINUE TO THE
EAST.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 241736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...WHILE SHOWERS HAVE ALL BEEN DIMINISHED...POCKETS
OF DRIZZLE REMAIN. WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWER/DRIZZLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE PER THE 1KM VIS SAT IMAGERY WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OVER OUR WESTERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THESE
BREAKS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME REMAINS DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO KEEP BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS MVFR DUE TO CIGS. THERE MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF -DZ
AROUND KALB FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS
BEGIN TO RISE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTN...AND START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE JUST SCT T0 FEW CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT. IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS...THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IFR BR/FG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...OTHERWISE FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIGHT WEST T0
NORTHWEST WINDS.

SOME CLOUDS /MAINLY OF THE HIGHER VARIETY/ LOOK TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND KGFL...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 241710
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...WHILE SHOWERS HAVE ALL BEEN DIMINISHED...POCKETS
OF DRIZZLE REMAIN. WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWER/DRIZZLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE PER THE 1KM VIS SAT IMAGERY WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OVER OUR WESTERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THESE
BREAKS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME REMAINS DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KBOX 241423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WARM
CONVEYOR BELT IN THE COMMA HEAD CONTINUES TO ROTATE A FEW SHOWERS
SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENG. ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND IS DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. EXPECT A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF
AN ISOLD SHOWER EASTERN HALF NEW ENG. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
WITH CLEARING LIKELY WAITING UNTIL AFTER DARK...ALTHOUGH SOME
BREAKS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW ENG LATE IN THE DAY. WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO T/TD/POP
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

TODAY...
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
MAINLY MVFR /IFR CAPE AND ISLANDS/ CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLOWLY
WITH TIME BOTH DUE TO LIFTING CIGS AND BREAKING CLOUDS.
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAINLY NW...WITH A FEW GUSTS 20+ KT POSSIBLE AT EAST COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING...DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...
VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA STILL PRODUCING GUSTS TO
25-30 KT OVER EASTERN WATERS...BUT THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 8-10 FT SEAS EASTERN WATERS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED FOR WATERS WEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL BUT CONTINUE TO THE
EAST.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WARM
CONVEYOR BELT IN THE COMMA HEAD CONTINUES TO ROTATE A FEW SHOWERS
SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENG. ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND IS DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. EXPECT A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF
AN ISOLD SHOWER EASTERN HALF NEW ENG. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
WITH CLEARING LIKELY WAITING UNTIL AFTER DARK...ALTHOUGH SOME
BREAKS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW ENG LATE IN THE DAY. WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO T/TD/POP
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

TODAY...
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
MAINLY MVFR /IFR CAPE AND ISLANDS/ CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLOWLY
WITH TIME BOTH DUE TO LIFTING CIGS AND BREAKING CLOUDS.
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAINLY NW...WITH A FEW GUSTS 20+ KT POSSIBLE AT EAST COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING...DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...
VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA STILL PRODUCING GUSTS TO
25-30 KT OVER EASTERN WATERS...BUT THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 8-10 FT SEAS EASTERN WATERS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED FOR WATERS WEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL BUT CONTINUE TO THE
EAST.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 241420
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...KENX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE IS STILL ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF MIST AND
DRIZZLE...AND LOTS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AS WELL.

DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL STILL
BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 241420
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...KENX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE IS STILL ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF MIST AND
DRIZZLE...AND LOTS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AS WELL.

DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL STILL
BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 241133
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
733 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...LAST EXPECTED BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF
RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. SO THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS
FOR THIS AREA THIS MORNING. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY
AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 241129
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
729 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
AREA OF RAFL MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
EXITING OCCLUSION. THIS LAST WAVE IS LIKELY TO BE THE
KICKER...FINALLY ALLOWING THIS FEATURE TO EXIT TO THE EAST AND
LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SRN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A FEW MORE SHOWERS LEFT
IN THE HOPPER AS IT DOES SO THOUGH...BUT THESE ARE LIKELY TO
BECOME MUCH FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO SCOUR
OUT...BUT DO FEEL THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING IN THE WEST BY
EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICALLY STACKED OCCLUDED LOW
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER GEORGES BANK. ITS COMMA-HEAD/TROWAL RAINS
STRETCH FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MAINE/NH/MA/CT AND RI. THIS WARM/MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP
/ALBEIT LIGHT/ WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...COMMA-HEAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNSET ACROSS
WESTERN CT/MA.

CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NNW WINDS WILL PROVIDE COOL
WEATHER TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
TEMP RISE WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY ABOUT 5-8 DEGS AWAY FROM
CURRENT/PREDAWN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

TODAY...
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
MAINLY MVFR /IFR CAPE AND ISLANDS/ CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLOWLY
WITH TIME BOTH DUE TO LIFTING CIGS AND BREAKING CLOUDS.
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAINLY NW...WITH A FEW GUSTS 20+ KT POSSIBLE AT EAST COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING...DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...
VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER OVER GEORGES BANK DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
FRI IS YIELDING N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND BECOME NNW THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE GALE CENTER TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. VSBY 2 TO 4
MILES IN AREAS OF FOG AND SHOWERS THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL VERY ROUGH SEAS /12-16 FT/ ACROSS THE EASTERN MA
WATERS IN A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELLS AND NORTHERLY WIND WAVES.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 241045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...LAST EXPECTED BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF
RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. SO THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS
FOR THIS AREA THIS MORNING. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY
AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 240824
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...ONE MORE FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AFFECTING THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SO
THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WEST. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF
ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV











000
FXUS61 KBOX 240808
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
408 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICALLY STACKED OCCLUDED LOW
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER GEORGES BANK. ITS COMMA-HEAD/TROWAL RAINS
STRETCH FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MAINE/NH/MA/CT AND RI. THIS WARM/MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP
/ALBEIT LIGHT/ WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...COMMA-HEAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNSET ACROSS
WESTERN CT/MA.

CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NNW WINDS WILL PROVIDE COOL
WEATHER TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
TEMP RISE WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY ABOUT 5-8 DEGS AWAY FROM
CURRENT/PREDAWN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

THRU 12Z...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH IFR OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. MODEST N WINDS CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN MA.

AFTER 12Z...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING AND MOVING OFFSHORE.
ALSO CIGS AND VSBYS LIFTING TO MVFR AND VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. N
WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW WITH TIME.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...

VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER OVER GEORGES BANK DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
FRI IS YIELDING N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND BECOME NNW THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE GALE CENTER TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. VSBY 2 TO 4
MILES IN AREAS OF FOG AND SHOWERS THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL VERY ROUGH SEAS /12-16 FT/ ACROSS THE EASTERN MA
WATERS IN A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELLS AND NORTHERLY WIND WAVES.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240808
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
408 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICALLY STACKED OCCLUDED LOW
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER GEORGES BANK. ITS COMMA-HEAD/TROWAL RAINS
STRETCH FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MAINE/NH/MA/CT AND RI. THIS WARM/MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP
/ALBEIT LIGHT/ WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...COMMA-HEAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNSET ACROSS
WESTERN CT/MA.

CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NNW WINDS WILL PROVIDE COOL
WEATHER TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
TEMP RISE WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY ABOUT 5-8 DEGS AWAY FROM
CURRENT/PREDAWN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

THRU 12Z...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH IFR OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. MODEST N WINDS CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN MA.

AFTER 12Z...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING AND MOVING OFFSHORE.
ALSO CIGS AND VSBYS LIFTING TO MVFR AND VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. N
WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW WITH TIME.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...

VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER OVER GEORGES BANK DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
FRI IS YIELDING N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND BECOME NNW THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE GALE CENTER TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. VSBY 2 TO 4
MILES IN AREAS OF FOG AND SHOWERS THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL VERY ROUGH SEAS /12-16 FT/ ACROSS THE EASTERN MA
WATERS IN A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELLS AND NORTHERLY WIND WAVES.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 240804
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...ONE MORE FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AFFECTING THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SO
THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WEST. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF
ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 240804
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...ONE MORE FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AFFECTING THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SO
THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WEST. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF
ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 240611
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
211 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND
A DRYING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDE
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER SATURDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE CYCLONICALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM  THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER GEORGES BANK.
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THRU THE MORNING
HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. PREVIOUS
FORECAST VERIFYING NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

THRU 12Z...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH IFR OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. MODEST N WINDS CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN MA.

AFTER 12Z...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING AND MOVING OFFSHORE.
ALSO CIGS AND VSBYS LIFTING TO MVFR AND VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. N
WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW WITH TIME.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...

VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

10 PM UPDATE...

INCREASED SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS FROM STELLWAGON BANK
NORTHWARD. BUOYS REPORTING SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. ALSO REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDER GIVEN RISK APPEARS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     235-237-250-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD/GAF/99




000
FXUS61 KALY 240552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 124 AM EDT...NOTICING AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM MAINE INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AND PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD. THIS SIGNIFIES ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD. SO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELY VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ONLY
COOLING A FEW MORE DEGREES DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS AND A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KALY 240524
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 124 AM EDT...NOTICING AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM MAINE INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AND PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD. THIS SIGNIFIES ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD. SO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELY VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ONLY
COOLING A FEW MORE DEGREES DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS AND A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT NOW
APPEARS KPSF MIGHT BE DOWN TO THE COUNT THROUGH TONIGHT (IFR).
ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS AS IF ANY IFR CIGS WILL BE VERY BRIEF. KPOU
MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON FRIDAY...BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT TAKE AWHILE.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 240243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1040 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...RADARS STILL FOLLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
THE OVERALL TREND OF THESE SHOWERS DIMINISHING. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUED WORKING INTO THE REGION
WHICH WAS SIGN THAT THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO "DECAY" (FILL) AS IT
MOVED TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.

THE LOW WILL REACH THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINED SATURATED BUT WITH
TIME...WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT ON FRIDAY.

WITH THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...MID 40S LOCALLY IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

NOT MUCH TO UPDATE OVERNIGHT...JUST TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY GRIDS AND
POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT NOW
APPEARS KPSF MIGHT BE DOWN TO THE COUNT THROUGH TONIGHT (IFR).
ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS AS IF ANY IFR CIGS WILL BE VERY BRIEF. KPOU
MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON FRIDAY...BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT TAKE AWHILE.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 240243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1040 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...RADARS STILL FOLLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
THE OVERALL TREND OF THESE SHOWERS DIMINISHING. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUED WORKING INTO THE REGION
WHICH WAS SIGN THAT THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO "DECAY" (FILL) AS IT
MOVED TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.

THE LOW WILL REACH THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINED SATURATED BUT WITH
TIME...WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT ON FRIDAY.

WITH THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...MID 40S LOCALLY IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

NOT MUCH TO UPDATE OVERNIGHT...JUST TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY GRIDS AND
POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT NOW
APPEARS KPSF MIGHT BE DOWN TO THE COUNT THROUGH TONIGHT (IFR).
ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS AS IF ANY IFR CIGS WILL BE VERY BRIEF. KPOU
MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON FRIDAY...BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT TAKE AWHILE.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBOX 240200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT
TO SEA TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS
AND NOT AS HEAVY. FRIDAY...THE STORM CONTINUES ITS SEAWARD TRACK
WITH MORNING DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A DRYING TREND IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

10 PM UPDATE...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OCCLUDED/VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME/WARM CONVEYOR BELT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA AND MAINE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 00Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM CHATHAM MA INDICATES ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEFORE COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY ABOVE 800 MB. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IS YIELDING SCATTERED LOW
TOP SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE
DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. ONLY
MODIFICATION WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT REMAINS WEAK OVERNIGHT AND MODEST INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY NOT
BE REALIZED GIVEN DRYING ALOFT. OTHERWISE FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN
TACT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO TRIM BACK WIND ADVISORY AND ONLY INCLUDE E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MODELS KEEP AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS CLOSER TO E MA COASTAL WATERS. DIRECTION IS MORE N/NW AS
WELL WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INLAND AREAS UNLESS THERE IS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE IN THIS CASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ON COAST STILL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS WAS TO INCLUDE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FOR ACK TERMINAL. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==========================================================

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 02Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

10 PM UPDATE...

INCREASED SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS FROM STELLWAGON BANK
NORTHWARD. BUOYS REPORTING SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. ALSO REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDER GIVEN RISK APPEARS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS POSTED...PRIMARILY FOR RESIDUAL
FLOODING NOW THAT MOST SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED.
LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING THAT AFFECTED PEABODY MA WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG E MA COAST IS AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE...IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FT
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG N SHORE OF CAPE COD ON CAPE COD
BAY...BUT WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION AT THIS TIME. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD/GAF/99
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD/GAF/99
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT
TO SEA TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS
AND NOT AS HEAVY. FRIDAY...THE STORM CONTINUES ITS SEAWARD TRACK
WITH MORNING DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A DRYING TREND IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

10 PM UPDATE...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OCCLUDED/VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME/WARM CONVEYOR BELT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA AND MAINE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 00Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM CHATHAM MA INDICATES ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEFORE COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY ABOVE 800 MB. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IS YIELDING SCATTERED LOW
TOP SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE
DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. ONLY
MODIFICATION WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT REMAINS WEAK OVERNIGHT AND MODEST INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY NOT
BE REALIZED GIVEN DRYING ALOFT. OTHERWISE FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN
TACT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO TRIM BACK WIND ADVISORY AND ONLY INCLUDE E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MODELS KEEP AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS CLOSER TO E MA COASTAL WATERS. DIRECTION IS MORE N/NW AS
WELL WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INLAND AREAS UNLESS THERE IS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE IN THIS CASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ON COAST STILL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS WAS TO INCLUDE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FOR ACK TERMINAL. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==========================================================

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 02Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

10 PM UPDATE...

INCREASED SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS FROM STELLWAGON BANK
NORTHWARD. BUOYS REPORTING SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. ALSO REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDER GIVEN RISK APPEARS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS POSTED...PRIMARILY FOR RESIDUAL
FLOODING NOW THAT MOST SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED.
LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING THAT AFFECTED PEABODY MA WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG E MA COAST IS AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE...IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FT
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG N SHORE OF CAPE COD ON CAPE COD
BAY...BUT WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION AT THIS TIME. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD/GAF/99
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD/GAF/99
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 240010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION...STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS FOR
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN ON
RADAR...AS WELL AS LIKELY PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATE A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WAS WORKING INTO THE REGION WHICH WAS
SIGN THAT THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO "DECAY" (FILL). INDEED THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE...OF THE LOW...TO THE SOUTH OF CAPE COD...LOOKS TO HAVE
RISEN FROM 997 TO 998 MB IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL IS OVER. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINED QUITE SATURATED SO FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND EASTWARD SO THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
AROUND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT A LITTLE...SO ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. INTERESTING...THE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
AGAIN DOWN TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE...AS THERE IS BETTER MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF WIND THROUGH THE COLUMN...SINCE IT IS SOMEWHAT DRIER.
THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS...BUT THEY ARE GENERALLY A LITTLE
HIGHER AND MORE OF TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION DIFFERENCE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY DRY OUT OVERNIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN AND CERTAINLY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RESIDUAL SHOWERS (MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY AT THAT TIME).

DECIDED TO RAISE A FEW MINIMUMS OVERNIGHT DUE THE FACT THE IF
ANYTHING...COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN PLACED BY NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION AND IN SOME CASES...THE 8PM TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS WERE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE 700 PM ONES.  WITH THE CANOPY OF
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS AS IF CIGS WILL OCCASIONAL DIP TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
AT KPSF DUE TO AN UPSLOPE WIND AND KALB DUE TO MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS GFL AND KPOU BUT AT THIS POINT...WE
FELT THE THREAT WAS TOO LOW (AND BRIEF) NOT NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. IN FACT...KPOU WAS ACTUALLY MVFR DUE TO THE GUSTY
WINDS.

CONDITIONS MIGHT NOT BOUNCE BACK TO VFR AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES...UNTIL WELL PAST THE MORNING PEAK FRIDAY.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU AND KPSF.


SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBOX 232316
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
716 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY...AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

715 PM UPDATE...
BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUED TO ROTATE CYCLONICALLY ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN MA AND RI...WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER IN THE SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUED IN THESE BANDS
OF SHOWERS. IT WAS STILL QUITE GUSTY IN THE EAST WITH WINDS
GUSTING PAST 35 MPH RIGHT AT THE COAST. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR THIS
EVENING A BIT OVER CT AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO TRIM BACK WIND ADVISORY AND ONLY INCLUDE E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MODELS KEEP AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS CLOSER TO E MA COASTAL WATERS. DIRECTION IS MORE N/NW AS
WELL WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INLAND AREAS UNLESS THERE IS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE IN THIS CASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ON COAST STILL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 02Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS POSTED...PRIMARILY FOR RESIDUAL
FLOODING NOW THAT MOST SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED.
LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING THAT AFFECTED PEABODY MA WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG E MA COAST IS AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE...IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FT
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG N SHORE OF CAPE COD ON CAPE COD
BAY...BUT WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION AT THIS TIME. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD/GAF
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...HR/GAF
AVIATION...JWD/GAF/HR
MARINE...JWD/GAF/HR
HYDROLOGY...JWD/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JWD




000
FXUS61 KALY 232013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION...STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS FOR
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT...THE SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING OUR REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW SITUATED JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS SYSTEM IS VERTICALLY STACKED...WITH THE
CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE LOW. A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS TRANSPORTED A LONG
FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE REGION...KEEPING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS ALLOWING
FOR A FEW SMALL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON THE DOWNSLOPING SIDE OF
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE...IT IS FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME STEADY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS STEADY RAINFALL
SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN...AS THE BEST FORCING WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS IS SEEN IN BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRES WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR...AS WELL AS THE NAM12 AND GFS40
MODELS.

ALTHOUGH THE STEADY RAINFALL LOOKS TO END THIS EVENING...A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THANKS TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.
ADDITIONAL QPF LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CLOUDY...COOL AND DAMP WITH THE ABUNDANT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT
TEMPS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S. A FEW UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN WILL SHIFT WEST OF
THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHTER
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT. THIS...COMBINED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE INTO THE NORTH AND
DECREASING THE AMT OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKSHIRES...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL IFR...ESP AT
KALB AND KPSF.

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z/FRI...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPOU.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL WILL
TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS HAVE
REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 231918
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
318 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY...AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

315 PM UPDATE...

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MAIN BAND OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SHIFTED INTO EASTERN NY AND
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED AS IT OUTRUNS
BETTER SUPPORT.

IN ITS WAKE MORE SHOWERS WERE ROTATING WESTWARD ONTO COAST AROUND
UPPER LOW WHICH WAS LOCATED S OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACROSS
EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
ARE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ML/MUCAPE. SEEING PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE SE OF NANTUCKET WITH BUILDING CLOUDS/
CONVECTION FARTHER SE...WHICH SHOULD CLIP SE NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING.

NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...BUT HIGHER CORES COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS BRIEF DOWNPOURS. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AT
A GIVEN LOCATION...SO THREAT OF RENEWED FLOODING REMAINS LOW.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW PASSES SE OF NEW
ENGLAND.

DECIDED TO TRIM BACK WIND ADVISORY AND ONLY INCLUDE E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MODELS KEEP AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS CLOSER TO E MA COASTAL WATERS. DIRECTION IS MORE N/NW AS
WELL WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INLAND AREAS UNLESS THERE IS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE IN THIS CASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ON COAST STILL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 00Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS POSTED...PRIMARILY FOR RESIDUAL
FLOODING NOW THAT MOST SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED.
LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING THAT AFFECTED PEABODY MA WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG E MA COAST IS AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE...IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FT
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG N SHORE OF CAPE COD ON CAPE COD
BAY...BUT WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION AT THIS TIME. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...HR/FIELD
AVIATION...JWD/HR/FIELD
MARINE...JWD/HR/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...JWD/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231918
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
318 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY...AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

315 PM UPDATE...

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MAIN BAND OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SHIFTED INTO EASTERN NY AND
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED AS IT OUTRUNS
BETTER SUPPORT.

IN ITS WAKE MORE SHOWERS WERE ROTATING WESTWARD ONTO COAST AROUND
UPPER LOW WHICH WAS LOCATED S OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACROSS
EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
ARE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ML/MUCAPE. SEEING PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE SE OF NANTUCKET WITH BUILDING CLOUDS/
CONVECTION FARTHER SE...WHICH SHOULD CLIP SE NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING.

NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...BUT HIGHER CORES COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS BRIEF DOWNPOURS. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AT
A GIVEN LOCATION...SO THREAT OF RENEWED FLOODING REMAINS LOW.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW PASSES SE OF NEW
ENGLAND.

DECIDED TO TRIM BACK WIND ADVISORY AND ONLY INCLUDE E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MODELS KEEP AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS CLOSER TO E MA COASTAL WATERS. DIRECTION IS MORE N/NW AS
WELL WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INLAND AREAS UNLESS THERE IS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE IN THIS CASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ON COAST STILL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 00Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS POSTED...PRIMARILY FOR RESIDUAL
FLOODING NOW THAT MOST SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED.
LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING THAT AFFECTED PEABODY MA WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG E MA COAST IS AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE...IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FT
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG N SHORE OF CAPE COD ON CAPE COD
BAY...BUT WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION AT THIS TIME. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...HR/FIELD
AVIATION...JWD/HR/FIELD
MARINE...JWD/HR/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...JWD/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JWD




000
FXUS61 KALY 231735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...A STACKED COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO SIT AND
SPIN JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS
MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND
THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THIS BAND CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER EAST...THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTN HAS ENDED FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY ON
EASTWARD. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT LEAST CHC IN ALL AREAS...SINCE A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MOST HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 50S IN PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN LITCHFIELD CO. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN WILL SHIFT WEST OF
THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHTER
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT. THIS...COMBINED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE INTO THE NORTH AND
DECREASING THE AMT OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKSHIRES...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL IFR...ESP AT
KALB AND KPSF.

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z/FRI...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPOU.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 231727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...A STACKED COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO SIT AND
SPIN JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS
MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND
THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THIS BAND CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER EAST...THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTN HAS ENDED FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY ON
EASTWARD. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT LEAST CHC IN ALL AREAS...SINCE A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MOST HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 50S IN PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN LITCHFIELD CO. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 231704
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
104 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MAIN BAND OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SHIFTED INTO EASTERN NY AND
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ITS WAKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ROTATING WESTWARD AROUND UPPER
LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND WHERE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.
HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND HAVE A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF ML/MUCAPE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP MORE ACTIVITY
DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...BUT HIGHER CORES
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW PASSES SE OF NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS POINT TO A SECONDARY SURGE OF WIND AS WINDS SHIFT
MORE TO N/NW...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. AS A RESULT WE WILL KEEP
WIND ADVISORY POSTED...THOUGH STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY
TO OCCUR UNTIL 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 00Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST LIKELY
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

WE ARE NOW RAMPING UP TO THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
PRIOR STORM SURGE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE NOT CHANGED. AT
0945 EDT THE SURGE WAS RUNNING AT 2 FEET AT BOS...ABOUT TWICE AS
HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE. WAVES JUST OFFSHORE RUNNING 16 TO 18 FEET.
THE NNE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE RETIGHTENING FOR A PERIOD AS
ADVERTISED BY SHORT TERM MODELS AND THINK WAVES WILL HOLD AT
THESE HEIGHTS OR POSSIBLY EVEN INCREASE ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS ABOUT A HALF FOOT
HIGHER TODAY THAN LAST NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW WAVE ACTIVITY TO RUNUP
SOMEWHAT FURTHER ALONG THE BEACH. HENCE...THE IMPACT COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. ALSO...WE HAVE
THE ISSUE OF THIS BECOMING A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT WITH
CONTINUED EROSION OF THE DUNE SLOPES ALONG SANDY BEACH AREAS. WILL
KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN
AND HULL TO PLYMOUTH. OUR GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE BEACH
EROSION IN THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND AREA.

THERE MAY BE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231704
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
104 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MAIN BAND OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SHIFTED INTO EASTERN NY AND
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ITS WAKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ROTATING WESTWARD AROUND UPPER
LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND WHERE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.
HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND HAVE A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF ML/MUCAPE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP MORE ACTIVITY
DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...BUT HIGHER CORES
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW PASSES SE OF NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS POINT TO A SECONDARY SURGE OF WIND AS WINDS SHIFT
MORE TO N/NW...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. AS A RESULT WE WILL KEEP
WIND ADVISORY POSTED...THOUGH STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY
TO OCCUR UNTIL 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 00Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST LIKELY
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

WE ARE NOW RAMPING UP TO THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
PRIOR STORM SURGE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE NOT CHANGED. AT
0945 EDT THE SURGE WAS RUNNING AT 2 FEET AT BOS...ABOUT TWICE AS
HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE. WAVES JUST OFFSHORE RUNNING 16 TO 18 FEET.
THE NNE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE RETIGHTENING FOR A PERIOD AS
ADVERTISED BY SHORT TERM MODELS AND THINK WAVES WILL HOLD AT
THESE HEIGHTS OR POSSIBLY EVEN INCREASE ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS ABOUT A HALF FOOT
HIGHER TODAY THAN LAST NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW WAVE ACTIVITY TO RUNUP
SOMEWHAT FURTHER ALONG THE BEACH. HENCE...THE IMPACT COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. ALSO...WE HAVE
THE ISSUE OF THIS BECOMING A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT WITH
CONTINUED EROSION OF THE DUNE SLOPES ALONG SANDY BEACH AREAS. WILL
KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN
AND HULL TO PLYMOUTH. OUR GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE BEACH
EROSION IN THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND AREA.

THERE MAY BE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 231444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY. THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS SOME E-SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES HAS LED TO SOME TOTALS REACHING
2.5-3 INCHES...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1 INCH ADDITIONAL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIELD...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE THROUGH 1030 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL NOON WHEN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN SHOULD FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS
FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
MOST HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER
50S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
LITCHFIELD CO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 231444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY. THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS SOME E-SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES HAS LED TO SOME TOTALS REACHING
2.5-3 INCHES...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1 INCH ADDITIONAL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIELD...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE THROUGH 1030 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL NOON WHEN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN SHOULD FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS
FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
MOST HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER
50S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
LITCHFIELD CO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 231418
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1018 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
* URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING...STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING *

FORECAST LARGELY IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO MATCH
CURRENT RADAR/OBS TRENDS. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOSED LOW S OF NEW
ENGLAND...WHICH WILL SLOWLY BRING SURFACE LOW SE OF NANTUCKET THIS
EVENING.

1) URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING

RADAR SHOWED MAIN BAND OF HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE...SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. FOCUS THROUGH MIDDAY WILL BE ACROSS SW NH AND W MA WHERE
SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED...BUT THIS SHOULD PUSH OUT
OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
MERRIMACK VALLEY WHERE FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN
POSTED AS WELL.

ACROSS REST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER
THROUGH AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING EVIDENCE OF THIS S OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD AFFECT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
WHERE MODELS SHOW FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ML/MU CAPE THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT NOT ENOUGH OF
WIDESPREAD THREAT TO KEEP FLOOD WATCH GOING.

2) STRONG WINDS:

STILL SEEING STRONG WINDS /NEAR 40KT/ FROM BOSTON TO NE MA. WIND
FIELD ALOFT DIMINISHES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINS HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ADVISORY GIVEN IMPACT ON FULLY LEAVED TREES.
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


3) COASTAL FLOODING:

SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY MOVES SEAWARD. HOWEVER LIGHTER COMMA-HEAD
RAINS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS.

FRIDAY...

FURTHER IMPROVEMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS COMMA-HEAD EXITS AND MOVES OFFSHORE. RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE HIGHEST IN THE MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE OF DRYING AND LATE DAY
SUNSHINE IS ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TODAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD. MARGINAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NE WINDS
CONTINUE WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MA. SOME
VFR CAPE/ISLANDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...

IFR EASTERN MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND WINDS SLOWLY EASING.

FRIDAY...

MVFR BUT TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LESS
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*** DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS ***

THIS AFTERNOON...

COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING NE GALES AND
DANGEROUS SEAS TO THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MA
INTO NH COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS NOT QUITE AS INTENSE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT NEVERTHELESS DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS.

HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MA WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...

LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES SEAWARD WITH WINDS BECOMING SUBGALE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALSO ANY LINGERING RAIN SQUALLS NOT AS
INTENSE AS THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW AND
SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

WE ARE NOW RAMPING UP TO THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
PRIOR STORM SURGE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE NOT CHANGED. AT
0945 EDT THE SURGE WAS RUNNING AT 2 FEET AT BOS...ABOUT TWICE AS
HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE. WAVES JUST OFFSHORE RUNNING 16 TO 18 FEET.
THE NNE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE RETIGHTENING FOR A PERIOD AS
ADVERTISED BY SHORT TERM MODELS AND THINK WAVES WILL HOLD AT
THESE HEIGHTS OR POSSIBLY EVEN INCREASE ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS ABOUT A HALF FOOT
HIGHER TODAY THAN LAST NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW WAVE ACTIVITY TO RUNUP
SOMEWHAT FURTHER ALONG THE BEACH. HENCE...THE IMPACT COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. ALSO...WE HAVE
THE ISSUE OF THIS BECOMING A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT WITH
CONTINUED EROSION OF THE DUNE SLOPES ALONG SANDY BEACH AREAS. WILL
KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN
AND HULL TO PLYMOUTH. OUR GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE BEACH
EROSION IN THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND AREA.

THERE MAY BE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG/JWD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
957 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
 STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TIDAL FLOODING INTO THU MORNING ***

7 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. UPDATED
TEMPS/DWPTS TO BRING THEM UP TO CURRENT TRENDS BUT OTHER ISSUES
REMAIN ON TRACK. WILL BE UPDATING FLOOD ADVISORY AND FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS. AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE N
SHORE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN
FRANKLIN COUNTY WHICH MAY YIELD SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING.

1)HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT...

DUAL POL HAS BEEN ESTIMATING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF ABOUT AN
INCH OR SO IN THE RAIN BAND OVER MA MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RADAR MAY
BE UNDER ESTIMATING GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS /PRECIP
DRIFT/. AS THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN MA
INTO SOUTHERN NH THIS MORNING. THUS WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION.

ELSEWHERE PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY AND NOT AS INTENSE. HOWEVER
ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WAS PIVOTING NORTHWARD AROUND
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THIS NEW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MAY CLIP
SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA LATER TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE LATER TODAY AS THIS
MORNING BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED T-STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN RI INTO SOUTHEAST MA. GIVEN THE RISK
OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS WITH THE
GREATEST RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH THIS MORNING.


2) STRONG WINDS:

KBOX RADAR INDICATES LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND
SHIFTED NORTHWARD. ELEVATED OBSERVING PLATFORMS SUCH AS ISLE OF
SHOALS OFF THE NH COASTLINE CONFIRMS THIS WITH NE WINDS CONTINUING
TO GUSTS OVER 50 KT! HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS HAVE SLACKENED A BIT
OVER THE REGION AS WIND TRAJECTORY AS SHIFTED FROM NE TO N DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT. THIS MORE LAND TRAJECTORY IS A MORE STABLE THAN
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER OCEAN ALONG WITH MORE FRICTION/DRAG.
HENCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE LESSENED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CORE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE CLOSEST TO NORTHEAST MA ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN/CONVECTION ENHANCING WIND THREAT FROM PRECIP DRAG WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ESSEX COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIND
SPEEDS APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE SPEEDS MAY FALL JUST SHY
OF CRITERIA...FULLY TO PARTIAL LEAVED TREES WILL INCREASE THE RISK
OF DOWN LIMBS AND BRANCHES. HENCE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY MOVES SEAWARD. HOWEVER LIGHTER COMMA-HEAD
RAINS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS.

FRIDAY...

FURTHER IMPROVEMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS COMMA-HEAD EXITS AND MOVES OFFSHORE. RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE HIGHEST IN THE MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE OF DRYING AND LATE DAY
SUNSHINE IS ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TODAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD. MARGINAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NE WINDS
CONTINUE WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MA. SOME
VFR CAPE/ISLANDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...

IFR EASTERN MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND WINDS SLOWLY EASING.

FRIDAY...

MVFR BUT TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LESS
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*** DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS ***

TODAY...

COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING NORTHEAST GALES AND
DANGEROUS SEAS TO THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MA
WATERS INTO NH COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS NOT QUITE AS
INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NEVERTHELESS DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS.
HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MA WATERS.

TONIGHT...

LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES SEAWARD WITH WINDS BECOMING SUBGALE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALSO ANY LINGERING RAIN SQUALLS NOT AS
INTENSE AS THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW AND
SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

WE ARE NOW RAMPING UP TO THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
PRIOR STORM SURGE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE NOT CHANGED. AT
0945 EDT THE SURGE WAS RUNNING AT 2 FEET AT BOS...ABOUT TWICE AS
HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE. WAVES JUST OFFSHORE RUNNING 16 TO 18 FEET.
THE NNE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE RETIGHTENING FOR A PERIOD AS
ADVERTISED BY SHORT TERM MODELS AND THINK WAVES WILL HOLD AT
THESE HEIGHTS OR POSSIBLY EVEN INCREASE ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS ABOUT A HALF FOOT
HIGHER TODAY THAN LAST NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW WAVE ACTIVITY TO RUNUP
SOMEWHAT FURTHER ALONG THE BEACH. HENCE...THE IMPACT COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. ALSO...WE HAVE
THE ISSUE OF THIS BECOMING A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT WITH
CONTINUED EROSION OF THE DUNE SLOPES ALONG SANDY BEACH AREAS. WILL
KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN
AND HULL TO PLYMOUTH. OUR GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE BEACH
EROSION IN THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND AREA.

THERE MAY BE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231132
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
732 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
 STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TIDAL FLOODING INTO THU MORNING ***

7 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. UPDATED
TEMPS/DWPTS TO BRING THEM UP TO CURRENT TRENDS BUT OTHER ISSUES
REMAIN ON TRACK. WILL BE UPDATING FLOOD ADVISORY AND FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS. AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE N
SHORE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN
FRANKLIN COUNTY WHICH MAY YIELD SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING.

1)HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT...

DUAL POL HAS BEEN ESTIMATING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF ABOUT AN
INCH OR SO IN THE RAIN BAND OVER MA MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RADAR MAY
BE UNDER ESTIMATING GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS /PRECIP
DRIFT/. AS THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN MA
INTO SOUTHERN NH THIS MORNING. THUS WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION.

ELSEWHERE PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY AND NOT AS INTENSE. HOWEVER
ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WAS PIVOTING NORTHWARD AROUND
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THIS NEW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MAY CLIP
SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA LATER TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE LATER TODAY AS THIS
MORNING BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED T-STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN RI INTO SOUTHEAST MA. GIVEN THE RISK
OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS WITH THE
GREATEST RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH THIS MORNING.


2) STRONG WINDS:

KBOX RADAR INDICATES LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND
SHIFTED NORTHWARD. ELEVATED OBSERVING PLATFORMS SUCH AS ISLE OF
SHOALS OFF THE NH COASTLINE CONFIRMS THIS WITH NE WINDS CONTINUING
TO GUSTS OVER 50 KT! HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS HAVE SLACKENED A BIT
OVER THE REGION AS WIND TRAJECTORY AS SHIFTED FROM NE TO N DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT. THIS MORE LAND TRAJECTORY IS A MORE STABLE THAN
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER OCEAN ALONG WITH MORE FRICTION/DRAG.
HENCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE LESSENED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CORE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE CLOSEST TO NORTHEAST MA ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN/CONVECTION ENHANCING WIND THREAT FROM PRECIP DRAG WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ESSEX COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIND
SPEEDS APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE SPEEDS MAY FALL JUST SHY
OF CRITERIA...FULLY TO PARTIAL LEAVED TREES WILL INCREASE THE RISK
OF DOWN LIMBS AND BRANCHES. HENCE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY MOVES SEAWARD. HOWEVER LIGHTER COMMA-HEAD
RAINS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS.

FRIDAY...

FURTHER IMPROVEMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS COMMA-HEAD EXITS AND MOVES OFFSHORE. RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE HIGHEST IN THE MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE OF DRYING AND LATE DAY
SUNSHINE IS ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TODAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD. MARGINAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NE WINDS
CONTINUE WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MA. SOME
VFR CAPE/ISLANDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...

IFR EASTERN MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND WINDS SLOWLY EASING.

FRIDAY...

MVFR BUT TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LESS
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*** DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS ***

TODAY...

COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING NORTHEAST GALES AND
DANGEROUS SEAS TO THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MA
WATERS INTO NH COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS NOT QUITE AS
INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NEVERTHELESS DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS.
HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MA WATERS.

TONIGHT...

LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES SEAWARD WITH WINDS BECOMING SUBGALE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALSO ANY LINGERING RAIN SQUALLS NOT AS
INTENSE AS THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW AND
SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

NEXT HIGH TIDE IS LATE THIS MORNING TOWARD MIDDAY. WHILE THIS
ASTRO TIDE IS ABOUT 0.5 FT HIGHER SURGE VALUES MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LESS THAN LAST EVENING. REASON BEING IS THAT WINDS HAVE BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY...LIMITING THE FETCH AND WAVE GROWTH SOMEWHAT. ALSO
THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE JET IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS MIDDAY
APPROACHES. SO WHILE THIS NEXT HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT 0.5 FT HIGHER...
THINKING WATER LEVELS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
IN ADDITION WAVE ACTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS GIVEN WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY LIMITING FETCH/WAVE GROWTH. HENCE IMPACTS REGARDING
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION AND EROSION SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING. AS A RESULT WILL NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING AND CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE CAPE ANN AREA NORTHWARD TO SALISBURY INCLUDING PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-
     013>022-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005-006-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 231131
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
731 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER
TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 645 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH
MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE
NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL
GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 231046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
646 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER
TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 645 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH
MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE
NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL
GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 230836
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
436 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
 STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TIDAL FLOODING INTO THU MORNING ***

415 AM UPDATE...

IMPRESSIVE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH ITS WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL RAINS AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION PINWHEELING FROM GEORGES BANK INTO
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NH...SLOWLY PIVOTING NORTHWEST. DETAILS
ON THE INDIVIDUAL STORM HAZARDS ARE BELOW.

1)HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT...

DUAL POL HAS BEEN ESTIMATING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF ABOUT AN
INCH OR SO IN THE RAIN BAND OVER MA MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RADAR MAY
BE UNDER ESTIMATING GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS /PRECIP
DRIFT/. AS THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN MA
INTO SOUTHERN NH THIS MORNING. THUS WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION.

ELSEWHERE PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY AND NOT AS INTENSE. HOWEVER
ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WAS PIVOTING NORTHWARD AROUND
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THIS NEW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MAY CLIP
SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA LATER TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE LATER TODAY AS THIS
MORNING BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED T-STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN RI INTO SOUTHEAST MA. GIVEN THE RISK
OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS WITH THE
GREATEST RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH THIS MORNING.


2) STRONG WINDS:

KBOX RADAR INDICATES LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND
SHIFTED NORTHWARD. ELEVATED OBSERVING PLATFORMS SUCH AS ISLE OF
SHOALS OFF THE NH COASTLINE CONFIRMS THIS WITH NE WINDS CONTINUING
TO GUSTS OVER 50 KT! HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS HAVE SLACKENED A BIT
OVER THE REGION AS WIND TRAJECTORY AS SHIFTED FROM NE TO N DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT. THIS MORE LAND TRAJECTORY IS A MORE STABLE THAN
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER OCEAN ALONG WITH MORE FRICTION/DRAG.
HENCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE LESSENED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CORE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE CLOSEST TO NORTHEAST MA ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN/CONVECTION ENHANCING WIND THREAT FROM PRECIP DRAG WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ESSEX COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIND
SPEEDS APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE SPEEDS MAY FALL JUST SHY
OF CRITERIA...FULLY TO PARTIAL LEAVED TREES WILL INCREASE THE RISK
OF DOWN LIMBS AND BRANCHES. HENCE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY MOVES SEAWARD. HOWEVER LIGHTER COMMA-HEAD
RAINS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS.

FRIDAY...

FURTHER IMPROVEMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS COMMA-HEAD EXITS AND MOVES OFFSHORE. RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE HIGHEST IN THE MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE OF DRYING AND LATE DAY
SUNSHINE IS ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

THRU 12Z...

BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS OVER CAPE COD
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT NORTHWARD
WITH TIME. STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS OVER
NORTHEAST MA. IFR PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...

BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS
NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD.
MARGINAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NE WINDS CONTINUE
WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

TONIGHT...

IFR EASTERN MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND WINDS SLOWLY EASING.

FRIDAY...

MVFR BUT TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LESS
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*** DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS ***

TODAY...

COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING NORTHEAST GALES AND
DANGEROUS SEAS TO THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MA
WATERS INTO NH COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS NOT QUITE AS
INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NEVERTHELESS DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS.
HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MA WATERS.

TONIGHT...

LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES SEAWARD WITH WINDS BECOMING SUBGALE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALSO ANY LINGERING RAIN SQUALLS NOT AS
INTENSE AS THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW AND
SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

NEXT HIGH TIDE IS LATE THIS MORNING TOWARD MIDDAY. WHILE THIS
ASTRO TIDE IS ABOUT 0.5 FT HIGHER SURGE VALUES MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LESS THAN LAST EVENING. REASON BEING IS THAT WINDS HAVE BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY...LIMITING THE FETCH AND WAVE GROWTH SOMEWHAT. ALSO
THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE JET IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS MIDDAY
APPROACHES. SO WHILE THIS NEXT HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT 0.5 FT HIGHER...
THINKING WATER LEVELS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
IN ADDITION WAVE ACTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS GIVEN WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY LIMITING FETCH/WAVE GROWTH. HENCE IMPACTS REGARDING
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION AND EROSION SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING. AS A RESULT WILL NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING AND CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE CAPE ANN AREA NORTHWARD TO SALISBURY INCLUDING PLUM ISLAND.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-
     013>022-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005-006-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KALY 230831
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
431 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST CONTINUE
TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY
STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A
CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TACONICS...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 4 AM. WILL LOWER
POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN
WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM
AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV












000
FXUS61 KALY 230814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST CONTINUE
TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY
STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A
CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TACONICS...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 4 AM. WILL LOWER
POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN
WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM
AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 230814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST CONTINUE
TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY
STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A
CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TACONICS...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 4 AM. WILL LOWER
POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN
WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM
AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV









000
FXUS61 KBOX 230609
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
209 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SQUALLS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN LESSENING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO
 DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING INTO
 THU MORNING ***

2 AM UPDATE...

IMPRESSIVE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WITH ITS WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL RAINS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION
PINWHEELING FROM GEORGES BANK NORTHWESTWARD INTO MASSACHUSETTS AND
SLOWLY PIVOTING NORTHWEST. HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONVECTION WITHIN
THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING
ACROSS EASTERN MA AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHEAST NH. THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH.

OCCLUDED LOW SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER QUEBEC
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NH/NORTHEAST MA/RI AND NORTHEAST CT. THIS LOW LEVEL JET
WILL REMAIN STRONG THRU 12Z AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS WIND HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.  EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=============================================================

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON THURSDAY.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WERE
EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS THAT WE OFTEN SEE
DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

&&


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

THRU 12Z...

BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS OVER CAPE COD
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT NORTHWARD
WITH TIME. STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS OVER
NORTHEAST MA. IFR PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...

BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS
NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD.
MARGINAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NE WINDS CONTINUE
WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

TONIGHT...

IFR EASTERN MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND WINDS SLOWLY EASING.

FRIDAY...

MVFR BUT TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LESS
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND STORM FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE
 INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN
20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS.
GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST. THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE AREA
NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA. A LONG DURATION OF
NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE EXPOSED BEACHES FROM SALISBURY TO PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ004.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     014>016-019.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-
     013>022-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005-006-012-
     013-017-018-020-021.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231>237-
     254>256.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 230544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT...UPDATED POPS/WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRENDS. STILL A LACK OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SO CUT BACK ON
POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS UPDATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS OCCURRING
RATHER SOUTH FORM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK.

BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
EMBEDDED BANDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES...TACONICS... AND
MID HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

A DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS
AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS












000
FXUS61 KALY 230543
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT...UPDATED POPS/WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRENDS. STILL A LACK OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SO CUT BACK ON
POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS UPDATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS OCCURRING
RATHER SOUTH FORM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK.

BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
EMBEDDED BANDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES...TACONICS... AND
MID HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

A DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS
AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS











000
FXUS61 KALY 230528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT...UPDATED POPS/WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRENDS. STILL A LACK OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SO CUT BACK ON
POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS UPDATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS OCCURRING
RATHER SOUTH FORM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK.

BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
EMBEDDED BANDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES...TACONICS... AND
MID HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

A DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS
AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 230203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS IN HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO
 DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING ***

10 PM UPDATE...

VERY IMPRESSIVE/VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE-JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND A
MID LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND ADVECTING INTO SOUTHEAST MA
AND RI. ON THE NOSE OF SHORT WAVE AND DRY SLOT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THIS HAS
BEEN SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT /LFQ OF
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK/ TO YIELD NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER EASTERN
CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
AND ADVECTING NW INTO EASTERN MA AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN NH TOWARD
MORNING.

STRONG WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS CONVECTION GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL
OF RI/EASTERN CT NORTHWARD INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MA. FARTHER WEST INTO CT RVR VLY OF CT AND MA WIND GUSTS
SHOULD BE NOT AS STRONG GIVEN CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN
FARTHER EAST OVER RI...EASTERN MA INTO SOUTHEAST NH. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE NEW CONVECTION SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SHOULD PIVOT NW INTO
EASTERN MA OVERNIGHT /POSSIBLY RI TOO/ AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST NH
TOWARD MORNING. THUS HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=============================================================

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON THURSDAY.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WERE
EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS THAT WE OFTEN SEE
DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...WITH 50 KT GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...INCLUDING AT
KBOS. LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND STORM FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE
 INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN
20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS.
GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST. THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE AREA
NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA. A LONG DURATION OF
NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE EXPOSED BEACHES FROM SALISBURY TO PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ004.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>022-
     026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005-006-012-013-
     017-018-020-021.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237-254>256.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS IN HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO
 DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING ***

10 PM UPDATE...

VERY IMPRESSIVE/VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE-JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND A
MID LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND ADVECTING INTO SOUTHEAST MA
AND RI. ON THE NOSE OF SHORT WAVE AND DRY SLOT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THIS HAS
BEEN SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT /LFQ OF
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK/ TO YIELD NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER EASTERN
CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
AND ADVECTING NW INTO EASTERN MA AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN NH TOWARD
MORNING.

STRONG WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS CONVECTION GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL
OF RI/EASTERN CT NORTHWARD INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MA. FARTHER WEST INTO CT RVR VLY OF CT AND MA WIND GUSTS
SHOULD BE NOT AS STRONG GIVEN CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN
FARTHER EAST OVER RI...EASTERN MA INTO SOUTHEAST NH. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE NEW CONVECTION SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SHOULD PIVOT NW INTO
EASTERN MA OVERNIGHT /POSSIBLY RI TOO/ AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST NH
TOWARD MORNING. THUS HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=============================================================

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON THURSDAY.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WERE
EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS THAT WE OFTEN SEE
DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...WITH 50 KT GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...INCLUDING AT
KBOS. LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND STORM FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE
 INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN
20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS.
GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST. THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE AREA
NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA. A LONG DURATION OF
NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE EXPOSED BEACHES FROM SALISBURY TO PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ004.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>022-
     026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005-006-012-013-
     017-018-020-021.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237-254>256.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 230152
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
952 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE
FA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER EMBEDDED BANDS NOW
MOVING TOWARDS THE HUDSON VALLEY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A
DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND
AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW
THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY
LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS
FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 230152
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
952 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE
FA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER EMBEDDED BANDS NOW
MOVING TOWARDS THE HUDSON VALLEY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A
DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND
AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW
THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY
LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS
FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 222326
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
726 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS COAST.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
  THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
  THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST ***

730 PM UPDATE...WINDS HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 51 MPH AT LOGAN AIRPORT IN BOSTON.
THEREFORE...HAVE UPGRADED THE WIND ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE IMMEDIATE MASSACHUSETTS COAST FROM PLYMOUTH UP TO ESSEX
COUNTY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ESSEX COUNTY COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER INLAND...HAVE
KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS BUT WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BECAUSE OF
THE FULLY LEAVED TREES...THE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO DO DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES.

RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
CURRENTLY ACROSS CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. EXPECT THESE HEAVIER BANDS TO CONTINUE
TO ROTATE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL LOW GETS CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

MAIN UPDATES WITH THIS PACKAGE WERE TO THE WINDS AND THE HAZARDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS RIGHT ON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON THURSDAY.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WERE
EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS THAT WE OFTEN SEE
DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...WITH 50 KT GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...INCLUDING AT
KBOS. LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND STORM FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE
 INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN
20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS.
GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST. THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE AREA
NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA. A LONG DURATION OF
NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE EXPOSED BEACHES FROM SALISBURY TO PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>022-
     026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005-006.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237-254>256.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 222309
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
709 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 222309
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
709 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








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