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000
FXUS61 KBOX 281050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** HEAVY RAINFALL/STORMS THIS MORNING ***
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

7 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY INTO NYC AND
NJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER N THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS MAY END UP AFFECTING LOCATIONS NEAR S
COAST AS OPPOSED TO INTERIOR PER RADAR TRENDS.

MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH GIVEN TIME OF DAY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED.

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL.  UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND
IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT
ZONE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THIS
WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

IFR/LIFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS MORNING. ALSO LIFR IN FOG AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND CENTRAL HILLS. EXPECT THESE INITIAL
TSTMS TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MAY BE
SLOWER TO IMPROVE IN THE HUMID AIRMASS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** HEAVY RAINFALL/STORMS THIS MORNING ***
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

7 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY INTO NYC AND
NJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER N THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS MAY END UP AFFECTING LOCATIONS NEAR S
COAST AS OPPOSED TO INTERIOR PER RADAR TRENDS.

MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH GIVEN TIME OF DAY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED.

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL.  UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND
IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT
ZONE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THIS
WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

IFR/LIFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS MORNING. ALSO LIFR IN FOG AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND CENTRAL HILLS. EXPECT THESE INITIAL
TSTMS TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MAY BE
SLOWER TO IMPROVE IN THE HUMID AIRMASS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** HEAVY RAINFALL/STORMS THIS MORNING ***
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

7 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY INTO NYC AND
NJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER N THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS MAY END UP AFFECTING LOCATIONS NEAR S
COAST AS OPPOSED TO INTERIOR PER RADAR TRENDS.

MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH GIVEN TIME OF DAY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED.

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL.  UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND
IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT
ZONE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THIS
WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

IFR/LIFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS MORNING. ALSO LIFR IN FOG AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND CENTRAL HILLS. EXPECT THESE INITIAL
TSTMS TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MAY BE
SLOWER TO IMPROVE IN THE HUMID AIRMASS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** HEAVY RAINFALL/STORMS THIS MORNING ***
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

7 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY INTO NYC AND
NJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER N THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS MAY END UP AFFECTING LOCATIONS NEAR S
COAST AS OPPOSED TO INTERIOR PER RADAR TRENDS.

MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH GIVEN TIME OF DAY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED.

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL.  UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND
IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT
ZONE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THIS
WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

IFR/LIFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS MORNING. ALSO LIFR IN FOG AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND CENTRAL HILLS. EXPECT THESE INITIAL
TSTMS TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MAY BE
SLOWER TO IMPROVE IN THE HUMID AIRMASS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 281042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A POTENT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD AND
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A POTENT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD AND
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 280843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE
TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO
LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER
"SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 280843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE
TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO
LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER
"SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 280843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE
TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO
LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER
"SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 280843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE
TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO
LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER
"SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 280711
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
311 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
*** HEAVY RAINFALL/STORMS THIS MORNING ***
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

310 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY INTO NYC AND
NJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER N THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS MAY END UP AFFECTING LOCATIONS NEAR S
COAST AS OPPOSED TO INTERIOR PER RADAR TRENDS.

MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH GIVEN TIME OF DAY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED.

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL.  UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND
IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT
ZONE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THIS
WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH 12Z...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS
BEYOND THAT.

CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z AS FOG/LOW CLOUDS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTING NE FROM NYC AREA
WILL REACH CT VALLEY 06Z-08Z AND E MA COAST 08Z-10Z. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS PREVAIL BUT MANY AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 18Z. EXCEPTION IS ALONG S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR
LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z...MAINLY IN SW NH...WESTERN/CENTRAL MA
AND N CT.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARRIVE AFTER 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE BY 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280711
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
311 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
*** HEAVY RAINFALL/STORMS THIS MORNING ***
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

310 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY INTO NYC AND
NJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER N THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS MAY END UP AFFECTING LOCATIONS NEAR S
COAST AS OPPOSED TO INTERIOR PER RADAR TRENDS.

MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH GIVEN TIME OF DAY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED.

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL.  UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND
IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT
ZONE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THIS
WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH 12Z...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS
BEYOND THAT.

CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z AS FOG/LOW CLOUDS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTING NE FROM NYC AREA
WILL REACH CT VALLEY 06Z-08Z AND E MA COAST 08Z-10Z. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS PREVAIL BUT MANY AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 18Z. EXCEPTION IS ALONG S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR
LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z...MAINLY IN SW NH...WESTERN/CENTRAL MA
AND N CT.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARRIVE AFTER 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE BY 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280711
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
311 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
*** HEAVY RAINFALL/STORMS THIS MORNING ***
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

310 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY INTO NYC AND
NJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER N THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS MAY END UP AFFECTING LOCATIONS NEAR S
COAST AS OPPOSED TO INTERIOR PER RADAR TRENDS.

MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH GIVEN TIME OF DAY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED.

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL.  UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND
IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT
ZONE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THIS
WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH 12Z...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS
BEYOND THAT.

CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z AS FOG/LOW CLOUDS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTING NE FROM NYC AREA
WILL REACH CT VALLEY 06Z-08Z AND E MA COAST 08Z-10Z. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS PREVAIL BUT MANY AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 18Z. EXCEPTION IS ALONG S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR
LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z...MAINLY IN SW NH...WESTERN/CENTRAL MA
AND N CT.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARRIVE AFTER 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE BY 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280711
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
311 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
*** HEAVY RAINFALL/STORMS THIS MORNING ***
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

310 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY INTO NYC AND
NJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER N THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS MAY END UP AFFECTING LOCATIONS NEAR S
COAST AS OPPOSED TO INTERIOR PER RADAR TRENDS.

MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH GIVEN TIME OF DAY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED.

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL.  UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND
IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT
ZONE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THIS
WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH 12Z...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS
BEYOND THAT.

CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z AS FOG/LOW CLOUDS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTING NE FROM NYC AREA
WILL REACH CT VALLEY 06Z-08Z AND E MA COAST 08Z-10Z. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS PREVAIL BUT MANY AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 18Z. EXCEPTION IS ALONG S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR
LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z...MAINLY IN SW NH...WESTERN/CENTRAL MA
AND N CT.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARRIVE AFTER 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE BY 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KALY 280536
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 280536
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 280536
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 280536
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 280506
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS











000
FXUS61 KALY 280506
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KBOX 280504
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY AND MUCH
LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND CONTINUING FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
*** HEAVY RAIN/STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ***
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY INTO NYC AND
NJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER N THIS
AFTERNOON.

MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH GIVEN TIME OF DAY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED.

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND PRESENCE OF
CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING FEW WEAK
TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE
50S! THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S
INLAND AND LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.


DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
 - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
 - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
 - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRENCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.

THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THURSDAY...

MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.

SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH 12Z...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS
BEYOND THAT.

CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z AS FOG/LOW CLOUDS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTING NE FROM NYC AREA
WILL REACH CT VALLEY 06Z-08Z AND E MA COAST 08Z-10Z. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS PREVAIL BUT MANY AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 18Z. EXCEPTION IS ALONG S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR
LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z...MAINLY IN SW NH...WESTERN/CENTRAL MA
AND N CT.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARRIVE AFTER 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE BY 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-22Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY
TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT

TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 280504
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 280504
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY AND MUCH
LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND CONTINUING FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
*** HEAVY RAIN/STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ***
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY INTO NYC AND
NJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER N THIS
AFTERNOON.

MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH GIVEN TIME OF DAY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED.

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND PRESENCE OF
CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING FEW WEAK
TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE
50S! THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S
INLAND AND LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.


DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
 - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
 - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
 - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRENCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.

THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THURSDAY...

MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.

SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH 12Z...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS
BEYOND THAT.

CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z AS FOG/LOW CLOUDS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTING NE FROM NYC AREA
WILL REACH CT VALLEY 06Z-08Z AND E MA COAST 08Z-10Z. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS PREVAIL BUT MANY AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 18Z. EXCEPTION IS ALONG S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR
LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z...MAINLY IN SW NH...WESTERN/CENTRAL MA
AND N CT.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARRIVE AFTER 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE BY 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-22Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY
TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT

TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 280504
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 280504
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY AND MUCH
LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND CONTINUING FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
*** HEAVY RAIN/STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ***
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY INTO NYC AND
NJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER N THIS
AFTERNOON.

MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH GIVEN TIME OF DAY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED.

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND PRESENCE OF
CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING FEW WEAK
TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE
50S! THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S
INLAND AND LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.


DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
 - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
 - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
 - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRENCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.

THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THURSDAY...

MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.

SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH 12Z...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS
BEYOND THAT.

CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z AS FOG/LOW CLOUDS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTING NE FROM NYC AREA
WILL REACH CT VALLEY 06Z-08Z AND E MA COAST 08Z-10Z. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS PREVAIL BUT MANY AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 18Z. EXCEPTION IS ALONG S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR
LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z...MAINLY IN SW NH...WESTERN/CENTRAL MA
AND N CT.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARRIVE AFTER 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE BY 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-22Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY
TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT

TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 280504
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 280234
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NORTHEAST ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.  RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL DEPART
MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. MID WEEKS
WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING...AS MOST OF THE FCST AREA HAS ENTERED
A WARM SECTOR WITH AN APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/INITIAL WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH HAS FOCUSED THE CONVECTION OVER CNTRL-ERN PA...AND
CNTRL NY-PA BORDER. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SFC WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE
APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES/EXTREME WRN NY/OH CORRIDOR
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
THOSE AREA.

THE 00Z RAOBS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF SFC INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AT
KBUF AND KPIT...WITH A POOL OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
00Z BUF RAOB HAS AN H850-500 LAPSE RATE OF 7.2C/KM WITH A SBCAPE
OF 1146 J/KG. KALB STILL HAS A RESPECTABLE SBCAPE OF 1343 J/KG
WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF JUST UNDER 6.5C/KM.
THE 0-6 KM DEEP SHEAR IS CLOSE TO 40 KTS...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. THE SHEAR IS STRONGEST IN THE
H850-500 LAYER WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS INITIALLY...BUT THESE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE SFC WAVE...AND THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD SEE THE INSTABILITY WANE A BIT... WITH SBCAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL START TO INCREASE.
AN IMPRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. A PLUME OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE FCST AREA WILL BE NORTH OF THE
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
DAY BREAK.

THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE 3-KM HRRR IN TERMS
OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION BASED ON THE BASE REF PRODUCT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AND THEN 3 AM TO 6 AM TO THE NORTH. SOME SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
PWATS IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES. THE
POPS ARE TRENDED THIS WAY. THE BEST CHC OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 280045
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
845 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY
AND MUCH LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND
CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
 MORNING ***

845 PM UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO MODIFY POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BASED UPON RADAR
TRENDS.

STORMS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WERE WEAKENING AS THEY WERE
OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY AXIS. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO AS WE AWAIT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
LIFTING NE FROM PA. HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON TIMING...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS TOO SLOW...BUT BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND 2-5 AM AND FARTHER EAST 5-8 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ***

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA MON WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF -3 SD FROM CLIMO! SURFACE LOW PRES TRACKS
FROM PA/NY BORDER THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE MORNING BUT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION 12Z-15Z FROM SW TO
NE. WARM SECTOR THEN OVERSPREADS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS 65-70. THIS WILL YIELD SB
CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM
AS COOLING OCCURS ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AS WELL WITH 0-6
KM 35 TO 40 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY STRONG
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN
ADDITION LFQ OF ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED QG FORCING. THE ONLY WRINKLE IS THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH MUCH OF THE GUID SUGGEST WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND VCNTY. THUS THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE FROM INTERIOR CT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING SOUTHERN NH. SPC HAS PLACED THIS REGION IN A
SEE TEXT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
AND LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HIGH DEW PTS/LOW LCL.

MON NIGHT...

BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S!
THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
 - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
 - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
 - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRENCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.

THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THURSDAY...

MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.

SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO 18Z TAFS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTMS VICINITY OF
BAF/BDL THRU 00Z/01Z. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

================================================================

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON
NIGHT.

THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR
4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.
ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR
BY 4 PM.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO
ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE
AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON.
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON
MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS
THRU 00Z-01Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. THEN CONDITIONS LOWER 06Z-09Z
TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT

TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OUR DOPPLER RADAR IS DOWN. A TECHNICIAN IS ON THE WAY IN. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280045
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
845 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY
AND MUCH LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND
CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
 MORNING ***

845 PM UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO MODIFY POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BASED UPON RADAR
TRENDS.

STORMS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WERE WEAKENING AS THEY WERE
OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY AXIS. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO AS WE AWAIT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
LIFTING NE FROM PA. HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON TIMING...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS TOO SLOW...BUT BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND 2-5 AM AND FARTHER EAST 5-8 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ***

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA MON WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF -3 SD FROM CLIMO! SURFACE LOW PRES TRACKS
FROM PA/NY BORDER THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE MORNING BUT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION 12Z-15Z FROM SW TO
NE. WARM SECTOR THEN OVERSPREADS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS 65-70. THIS WILL YIELD SB
CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM
AS COOLING OCCURS ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AS WELL WITH 0-6
KM 35 TO 40 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY STRONG
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN
ADDITION LFQ OF ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED QG FORCING. THE ONLY WRINKLE IS THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH MUCH OF THE GUID SUGGEST WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND VCNTY. THUS THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE FROM INTERIOR CT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING SOUTHERN NH. SPC HAS PLACED THIS REGION IN A
SEE TEXT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
AND LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HIGH DEW PTS/LOW LCL.

MON NIGHT...

BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S!
THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
 - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
 - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
 - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRENCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.

THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THURSDAY...

MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.

SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO 18Z TAFS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTMS VICINITY OF
BAF/BDL THRU 00Z/01Z. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

================================================================

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON
NIGHT.

THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR
4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.
ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR
BY 4 PM.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO
ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE
AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON.
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON
MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS
THRU 00Z-01Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. THEN CONDITIONS LOWER 06Z-09Z
TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT

TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OUR DOPPLER RADAR IS DOWN. A TECHNICIAN IS ON THE WAY IN. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280045
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
845 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY
AND MUCH LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND
CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
 MORNING ***

845 PM UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO MODIFY POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BASED UPON RADAR
TRENDS.

STORMS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WERE WEAKENING AS THEY WERE
OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY AXIS. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO AS WE AWAIT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
LIFTING NE FROM PA. HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON TIMING...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS TOO SLOW...BUT BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND 2-5 AM AND FARTHER EAST 5-8 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ***

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA MON WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF -3 SD FROM CLIMO! SURFACE LOW PRES TRACKS
FROM PA/NY BORDER THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE MORNING BUT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION 12Z-15Z FROM SW TO
NE. WARM SECTOR THEN OVERSPREADS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS 65-70. THIS WILL YIELD SB
CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM
AS COOLING OCCURS ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AS WELL WITH 0-6
KM 35 TO 40 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY STRONG
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN
ADDITION LFQ OF ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED QG FORCING. THE ONLY WRINKLE IS THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH MUCH OF THE GUID SUGGEST WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND VCNTY. THUS THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE FROM INTERIOR CT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING SOUTHERN NH. SPC HAS PLACED THIS REGION IN A
SEE TEXT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
AND LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HIGH DEW PTS/LOW LCL.

MON NIGHT...

BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S!
THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
 - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
 - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
 - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRENCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.

THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THURSDAY...

MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.

SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO 18Z TAFS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTMS VICINITY OF
BAF/BDL THRU 00Z/01Z. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

================================================================

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON
NIGHT.

THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR
4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.
ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR
BY 4 PM.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO
ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE
AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON.
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON
MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS
THRU 00Z-01Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. THEN CONDITIONS LOWER 06Z-09Z
TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT

TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OUR DOPPLER RADAR IS DOWN. A TECHNICIAN IS ON THE WAY IN. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280045
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
845 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY
AND MUCH LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND
CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
 MORNING ***

845 PM UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO MODIFY POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BASED UPON RADAR
TRENDS.

STORMS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WERE WEAKENING AS THEY WERE
OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY AXIS. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO AS WE AWAIT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
LIFTING NE FROM PA. HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON TIMING...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS TOO SLOW...BUT BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND 2-5 AM AND FARTHER EAST 5-8 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ***

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA MON WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF -3 SD FROM CLIMO! SURFACE LOW PRES TRACKS
FROM PA/NY BORDER THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE MORNING BUT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION 12Z-15Z FROM SW TO
NE. WARM SECTOR THEN OVERSPREADS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS 65-70. THIS WILL YIELD SB
CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM
AS COOLING OCCURS ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AS WELL WITH 0-6
KM 35 TO 40 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY STRONG
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN
ADDITION LFQ OF ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED QG FORCING. THE ONLY WRINKLE IS THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH MUCH OF THE GUID SUGGEST WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND VCNTY. THUS THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE FROM INTERIOR CT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING SOUTHERN NH. SPC HAS PLACED THIS REGION IN A
SEE TEXT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
AND LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HIGH DEW PTS/LOW LCL.

MON NIGHT...

BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S!
THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
 - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
 - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
 - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRENCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.

THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THURSDAY...

MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.

SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO 18Z TAFS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTMS VICINITY OF
BAF/BDL THRU 00Z/01Z. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

================================================================

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON
NIGHT.

THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR
4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.
ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR
BY 4 PM.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO
ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE
AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON.
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON
MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS
THRU 00Z-01Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. THEN CONDITIONS LOWER 06Z-09Z
TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT

TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OUR DOPPLER RADAR IS DOWN. A TECHNICIAN IS ON THE WAY IN. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KALY 280004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
804 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS NOW. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON RADAR FROM SCHOHARIE THROUGH GREENE
AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR ANY NEW CONVECTION. DIURNAL COOLING
OCCURRING SO CHANCES OF ANY NEW CONVECTION DECREASING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...IF ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS DO
DEVLOP...COULD BE SEVERE. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
TRANSITIONING TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. WORDING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. QUITE A BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS
OCCURRED UPSTREAM SO WE HAVE TO CAREFULLY WATCH THE MODE OF
CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS INTO OUR REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE.

QUITE A SPIN TO THE UPPER IMPULSE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTION EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN
VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE IN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND
JET FORCING TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTH
MID ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHWEST CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...PERHAPS SCRAPING THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OFTEN WEAKER THAN DAYTIME CONVECTION BUT THE
PREDICTED INSTABILITY...UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
UPPER DYNAMICS WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION...EARLY TO MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
COULD FLIRT WITH SEVERE LEVELS. WILL HAVE TO CHECK LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVELS AS STORMS APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE WORTH MONITORING WITH THE WELL
DEFINED SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE
SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF
WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS
WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 280004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
804 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS NOW. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON RADAR FROM SCHOHARIE THROUGH GREENE
AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR ANY NEW CONVECTION. DIURNAL COOLING
OCCURRING SO CHANCES OF ANY NEW CONVECTION DECREASING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...IF ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS DO
DEVLOP...COULD BE SEVERE. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
TRANSITIONING TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. WORDING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. QUITE A BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS
OCCURRED UPSTREAM SO WE HAVE TO CAREFULLY WATCH THE MODE OF
CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS INTO OUR REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE.

QUITE A SPIN TO THE UPPER IMPULSE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTION EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN
VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE IN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND
JET FORCING TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTH
MID ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHWEST CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...PERHAPS SCRAPING THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OFTEN WEAKER THAN DAYTIME CONVECTION BUT THE
PREDICTED INSTABILITY...UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
UPPER DYNAMICS WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION...EARLY TO MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
COULD FLIRT WITH SEVERE LEVELS. WILL HAVE TO CHECK LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVELS AS STORMS APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE WORTH MONITORING WITH THE WELL
DEFINED SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE
SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF
WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS
WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 272303
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO THE AREA AS ITS
ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY AND MUCH LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING
THE REGION AND CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND T-STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
 MONDAY MORNING ***

7 PM UPDATE...

STILL MONITORING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN MA VICINITY OF
SPRINGFIELD. STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO CT WHERE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE L80S WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S/L70S. THIS YIELDS ML CAPES OF AROUND 1500J/KG. STORMS
WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY WITH SUNSET HOWEVER MAY PERSIST A WHILE LONGER
GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 KT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6-6.5C/KM.

OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. THEN LATER
TONIGHT OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS TO CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
PA ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING
LOW PRES AND ATTENDING WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH CT AND
WESTERN MA BETWEEN 06Z-09Z THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION 09Z-
12Z. HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
NEXT ROUND. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

ANOMALOUS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MON MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF T-STORMS /POSSIBLY
STRONG TO SEVERE/ MON AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THIS EVENING...WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AS
OF MID AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR OVER NY AND PA ADVECTING EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRIER AIR IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. UNTIL THIS
MLVL TROUGH EXITS EAST OF THE AREA THERE IS THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED
TSTM WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS WESTERN CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH.
ELSEWHERE DRY AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. GIVEN THE HIGH
DEW PT/THETA-E AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET AS THE BLYR COOLS.

OVERNIGHT...INITIAL SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD
KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/2AM. THEREAFTER
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OVER PA/NY STATE. A
BAND OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AS MUCH OF THE MDL GUID
INDICATES 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE TOWARD 12Z. HOWEVER THE GREATEST
RISK IS ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THINK RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING IS LOW GIVEN HOW QUICKLY SYSTEM IS MOVING AND PWATS ARE
ONLY +1 SD ABOVE CLIMO. NEVERTHELESS HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY IMPACT
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ***

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA MON WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF -3 SD FROM CLIMO! SURFACE LOW PRES TRACKS
FROM PA/NY BORDER THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE MORNING BUT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION 12Z-15Z FROM SW TO
NE. WARM SECTOR THEN OVERSPREADS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS 65-70. THIS WILL YIELD SB
CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM
AS COOLING OCCURS ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AS WELL WITH 0-6
KM 35 TO 40 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY STRONG
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN
ADDITION LFQ OF ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED QG FORCING. THE ONLY WRINKLE IS THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH MUCH OF THE GUID SUGGEST WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND VCNTY. THUS THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE FROM INTERIOR CT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING SOUTHERN NH. SPC HAS PLACED THIS REGION IN A
SEE TEXT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
AND LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HIGH DEW PTS/LOW LCL.

MON NIGHT...

BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S!
THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
 - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
 - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
 - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRENCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.

THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THURSDAY...

MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.

SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO 18Z TAFS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTMS VICINITY OF
BAF/BDL THRU 00Z/01Z. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

================================================================

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON
NIGHT.

THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR
4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.
ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR
BY 4 PM.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO
ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE
AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON.
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON
MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS
THRU 00Z-01Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. THEN CONDITIONS LOWER 06Z-09Z
TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT

TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OUR DOPPLER RADAR IS DOWN. A TECHNICIAN IS ON THE WAY IN. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
EQUIPMENT...NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272303
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO THE AREA AS ITS
ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY AND MUCH LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING
THE REGION AND CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND T-STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
 MONDAY MORNING ***

7 PM UPDATE...

STILL MONITORING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN MA VICINITY OF
SPRINGFIELD. STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO CT WHERE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE L80S WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S/L70S. THIS YIELDS ML CAPES OF AROUND 1500J/KG. STORMS
WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY WITH SUNSET HOWEVER MAY PERSIST A WHILE LONGER
GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 KT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6-6.5C/KM.

OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. THEN LATER
TONIGHT OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS TO CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
PA ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING
LOW PRES AND ATTENDING WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH CT AND
WESTERN MA BETWEEN 06Z-09Z THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION 09Z-
12Z. HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
NEXT ROUND. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

ANOMALOUS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MON MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF T-STORMS /POSSIBLY
STRONG TO SEVERE/ MON AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THIS EVENING...WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AS
OF MID AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR OVER NY AND PA ADVECTING EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRIER AIR IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. UNTIL THIS
MLVL TROUGH EXITS EAST OF THE AREA THERE IS THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED
TSTM WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS WESTERN CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH.
ELSEWHERE DRY AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. GIVEN THE HIGH
DEW PT/THETA-E AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET AS THE BLYR COOLS.

OVERNIGHT...INITIAL SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD
KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/2AM. THEREAFTER
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OVER PA/NY STATE. A
BAND OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AS MUCH OF THE MDL GUID
INDICATES 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE TOWARD 12Z. HOWEVER THE GREATEST
RISK IS ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THINK RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING IS LOW GIVEN HOW QUICKLY SYSTEM IS MOVING AND PWATS ARE
ONLY +1 SD ABOVE CLIMO. NEVERTHELESS HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY IMPACT
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ***

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA MON WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF -3 SD FROM CLIMO! SURFACE LOW PRES TRACKS
FROM PA/NY BORDER THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE MORNING BUT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION 12Z-15Z FROM SW TO
NE. WARM SECTOR THEN OVERSPREADS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS 65-70. THIS WILL YIELD SB
CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM
AS COOLING OCCURS ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AS WELL WITH 0-6
KM 35 TO 40 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY STRONG
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN
ADDITION LFQ OF ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED QG FORCING. THE ONLY WRINKLE IS THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH MUCH OF THE GUID SUGGEST WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND VCNTY. THUS THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE FROM INTERIOR CT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING SOUTHERN NH. SPC HAS PLACED THIS REGION IN A
SEE TEXT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
AND LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HIGH DEW PTS/LOW LCL.

MON NIGHT...

BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S!
THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
 - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
 - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
 - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRENCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.

THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THURSDAY...

MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.

SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO 18Z TAFS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTMS VICINITY OF
BAF/BDL THRU 00Z/01Z. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

================================================================

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON
NIGHT.

THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR
4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.
ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR
BY 4 PM.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO
ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE
AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON.
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON
MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS
THRU 00Z-01Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. THEN CONDITIONS LOWER 06Z-09Z
TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT

TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OUR DOPPLER RADAR IS DOWN. A TECHNICIAN IS ON THE WAY IN. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
EQUIPMENT...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KALY 272257
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS NOW. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON RADAR FROM SCHOHARIE THROUGH GREENE
AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR ANY NEW CONVECTION. DIURNAL COOLING
OCCURRING SO CHANCES OF ANY NEW CONVECTION DECREASING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...IF ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS DO
DEVLOP...COULD BE SEVERE. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
TRANSITIONING TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. WORDING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. QUITE A BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS
OCCURRED UPSTREAM SO WE HAVE TO CAREFULLY WATCH THE MODE OF
CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS INTO OUR REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE.

QUITE A SPIN TO THE UPPER IMPULSE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTION EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN
VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE IN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND
JET FORCING TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTH
MID ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHWEST CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...PERHAPS SCRAPING THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OFTEN WEAKER THAN DAYTIME CONVECTION BUT THE
PREDICTED INSTABILITY...UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
UPPER DYNAMICS WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION...EARLY TO MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
COULD FLIRT WITH SEVERE LEVELS. WILL HAVE TO CHECK LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVELS AS STORMS APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE WORTH MONITORING WITH THE WELL
DEFINED SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE
SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF
WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS
WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 272257
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS NOW. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON RADAR FROM SCHOHARIE THROUGH GREENE
AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR ANY NEW CONVECTION. DIURNAL COOLING
OCCURRING SO CHANCES OF ANY NEW CONVECTION DECREASING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...IF ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS DO
DEVLOP...COULD BE SEVERE. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
TRANSITIONING TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. WORDING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. QUITE A BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS
OCCURRED UPSTREAM SO WE HAVE TO CAREFULLY WATCH THE MODE OF
CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS INTO OUR REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE.

QUITE A SPIN TO THE UPPER IMPULSE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTION EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN
VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE IN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND
JET FORCING TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTH
MID ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHWEST CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...PERHAPS SCRAPING THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OFTEN WEAKER THAN DAYTIME CONVECTION BUT THE
PREDICTED INSTABILITY...UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
UPPER DYNAMICS WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION...EARLY TO MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
COULD FLIRT WITH SEVERE LEVELS. WILL HAVE TO CHECK LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVELS AS STORMS APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE WORTH MONITORING WITH THE WELL
DEFINED SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE
SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF
WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS
WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 272018
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO THE AREA AS ITS
ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY AND MUCH LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING
THE REGION AND CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

*** HEAVY RAIN AND T-STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ***

ANOMALOUS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MON MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF T-STORMS /POSSIBLY
STRONG TO SEVERE/ MON AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THIS EVENING...WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AS
OF MID AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR OVER NY AND PA ADVECTING EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRIER AIR IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. UNTIL THIS
MLVL TROUGH EXITS EAST OF THE AREA THERE IS THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED
TSTM WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS WESTERN CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH.
ELSEWHERE DRY AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. GIVEN THE HIGH
DEW PT/THETA-E AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET AS THE BLYR COOLS.

OVERNIGHT...INITIAL SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD
KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/2AM. THEREAFTER
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OVER PA/NY STATE. A
BAND OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AS MUCH OF THE MDL GUID
INDICATES 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE TOWARD 12Z. HOWEVER THE GREATEST
RISK IS ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THINK RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING IS LOW GIVEN HOW QUICKLY SYSTEM IS MOVING AND PWATS ARE
ONLY +1 SD ABOVE CLIMO. NEVERTHELESS HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY IMPACT
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

*** FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ***

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA MON WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF -3 SD FROM CLIMO! SURFACE LOW PRES TRACKS
FROM PA/NY BORDER THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE MORNING BUT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION 12Z-15Z FROM SW TO
NE. WARM SECTOR THEN OVERSPREADS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS 65-70. THIS WILL YIELD SB
CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM
AS COOLING OCCURS ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AS WELL WITH 0-6
KM 35 TO 40 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY STRONG
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN
ADDITION LFQ OF ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED QG FORCING. THE ONLY WRINKLE IS THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH MUCH OF THE GUID SUGGEST WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND VCNTY. THUS THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE FROM INTERIOR CT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING SOUTHERN NH. SPC HAS PLACED THIS REGION IN A
SEE TEXT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
AND LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HIGH DEW PTS/LOW LCL.

MON NIGHT...

BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S!
THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
 - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
 - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
 - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRANCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.

THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THURSDAY...

MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.

SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON
NIGHT.

THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR
4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.
ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR
BY 4 PM.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO
ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE
AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON.
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON
MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/VFR THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
AFTER 07Z AS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE TERMINAL. HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT

TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272018
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO THE AREA AS ITS
ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY AND MUCH LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING
THE REGION AND CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

*** HEAVY RAIN AND T-STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ***

ANOMALOUS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MON MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF T-STORMS /POSSIBLY
STRONG TO SEVERE/ MON AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THIS EVENING...WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AS
OF MID AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR OVER NY AND PA ADVECTING EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRIER AIR IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. UNTIL THIS
MLVL TROUGH EXITS EAST OF THE AREA THERE IS THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED
TSTM WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS WESTERN CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH.
ELSEWHERE DRY AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. GIVEN THE HIGH
DEW PT/THETA-E AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET AS THE BLYR COOLS.

OVERNIGHT...INITIAL SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD
KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/2AM. THEREAFTER
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OVER PA/NY STATE. A
BAND OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AS MUCH OF THE MDL GUID
INDICATES 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE TOWARD 12Z. HOWEVER THE GREATEST
RISK IS ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THINK RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING IS LOW GIVEN HOW QUICKLY SYSTEM IS MOVING AND PWATS ARE
ONLY +1 SD ABOVE CLIMO. NEVERTHELESS HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY IMPACT
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

*** FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ***

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA MON WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF -3 SD FROM CLIMO! SURFACE LOW PRES TRACKS
FROM PA/NY BORDER THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE MORNING BUT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION 12Z-15Z FROM SW TO
NE. WARM SECTOR THEN OVERSPREADS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS 65-70. THIS WILL YIELD SB
CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM
AS COOLING OCCURS ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AS WELL WITH 0-6
KM 35 TO 40 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY STRONG
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN
ADDITION LFQ OF ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED QG FORCING. THE ONLY WRINKLE IS THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH MUCH OF THE GUID SUGGEST WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND VCNTY. THUS THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE FROM INTERIOR CT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING SOUTHERN NH. SPC HAS PLACED THIS REGION IN A
SEE TEXT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
AND LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HIGH DEW PTS/LOW LCL.

MON NIGHT...

BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S!
THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
 - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
 - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
 - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRANCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.

THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THURSDAY...

MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.

SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON
NIGHT.

THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR
4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.
ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR
BY 4 PM.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO
ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE
AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON.
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON
MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/VFR THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
AFTER 07Z AS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE TERMINAL. HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT

TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 272015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WILL HEAD INTO
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ON RADAR FROM NORTHERN SCHOHARIE THROUGH ALBANY COUNTIES
FOR ANY NEW CONVECTION. THE RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION SUGGESTS SOME CAPPING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT...SO
SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT STORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING COULD BE SEVERE...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
TRANSITIONING TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. WORDING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

HOWEVER...QUITE A SPIN TO THE UPPER IMPULSE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OH/TN VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE IN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
AND JET FORCING TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION TRACKING OUT OF THE
NORTH MID ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHWEST CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...PERHAPS SCRAPING THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OFTEN WEAKER THAN DAYTIME CONVECTION BUT THE
PREDICTED INSTABILITY...UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
UPPER DYNAMICS WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION...EARLY TO MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
COULD FLIRT WITH SEVERE LEVELS. WILL HAVE TO CHECK LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVELS AS STORMS APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE WORTH MONITORING WITH THE WELL
DEFINED SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE
SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF
WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS
WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 272015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WILL HEAD INTO
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ON RADAR FROM NORTHERN SCHOHARIE THROUGH ALBANY COUNTIES
FOR ANY NEW CONVECTION. THE RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION SUGGESTS SOME CAPPING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT...SO
SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT STORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING COULD BE SEVERE...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
TRANSITIONING TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. WORDING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

HOWEVER...QUITE A SPIN TO THE UPPER IMPULSE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OH/TN VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE IN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
AND JET FORCING TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION TRACKING OUT OF THE
NORTH MID ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHWEST CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...PERHAPS SCRAPING THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OFTEN WEAKER THAN DAYTIME CONVECTION BUT THE
PREDICTED INSTABILITY...UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
UPPER DYNAMICS WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION...EARLY TO MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
COULD FLIRT WITH SEVERE LEVELS. WILL HAVE TO CHECK LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVELS AS STORMS APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE WORTH MONITORING WITH THE WELL
DEFINED SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE
SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF
WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS
WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 271828
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
228 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAPER
OFF BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH A SECOND BATCH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE MARITIMES AND NEW
ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

230 PM UPDATE...

*** HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN MA AND
 RI MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ***

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST/DISCUSSION AS WARM FRONTAL
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RI AT 2 PM.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS...THIS INCLUDES THE NORTH SHORE OF BOSTON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY 3 OR 4 PM OR SO. FARTHER WEST
ACROSS NY AND PA IN THE TRUE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS CLOUDS GIVE WAY
TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS WARM SECTOR AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THIS REGION. THUS THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
A TREND FOR THE RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DIMINISH WITH TIME.

TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST. QUITE MUGGY WITH DEW PTS 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

*** LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT ***
*** FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN MON ***

CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND
PERHAPS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE AT BEST IN HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

ONCE ANY STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ATTENTION TURNS TO
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. HIGHER-RES
MODELS INCLUDING 00Z NAM ARE MORE INSISTENT THAT ITS REMNANTS WILL
TRACK NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROBABLY NEAR S
COAST IF NOT A BIT FARTHER INLAND. 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING
MORE WITH THIS FEATURE...PROBABLY DUE TO ITS COARSER RESOLUTION...
BUT ALSO HINTS AT SOME SORT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF REGION TONIGHT.

OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT IS QUESTIONABLE AS WE REMAIN
UNSTABLE BUT 0-3KM SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES DROP OFF A BIT. CERTAINLY
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. FLASH FLOOD THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME...NOR DO WE HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN GREATEST THREAT AREA.MONDAY NIGHT...LINGERING AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR OR TRENDING TO VFR.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND DIMINISH.

UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TO OUR W MON AS SURFACE LOW LIKELY PASSES JUST
TO OUR W. THIS SHOULD FOCUS MOST OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR W AND N
WHERE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING RESIDES. WE MAY EVEN END UP WITH
A DRY SLOT ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BUT PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS THERE. ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE QUESTIONS AS TO
HOW MUCH CLEARING WE ACTUALLY SEE AND IF THAT GENERATES ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MON AFTERNOON. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ENVIRONMENT WOULD FEATURE DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS.

DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY...USED BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE EFFECT OF THIS PATTERN WILL BE
TO BRING SIMILAR WEATHER EACH DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CORE OF THE EASTERN NO-AM TROUGH
EJECTING NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAVE
ROOM FOR THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO SHIFT WEST BY SATURDAY.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA...ALL
THE WHILE SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THEN OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND BECOME LIGHT. THE
AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL MOVE OFF. EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AT NIGHT.  SUFFICIENT AIRMASS
DRYING IS INDICATED TO SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MARITIMES AND
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND IS UNDER
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT ZONE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER NY/ONTARIO
WITH DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THE UPPER FEATURES
SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OR WEST...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PART OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT DRY
WEATHER IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO.

SATURDAY... AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH...EXPECT THE OFFSHORE
FRONT TO SHIFT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THIS SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

215 PM UPDATE...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON
NIGHT.

THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR
4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.
ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR
BY 4 PM.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO
ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE
AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON.
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON
MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/VFR THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
AFTER 07Z AS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE TERMINAL. HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR BUT WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY SRN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MASS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MON.

SCA REMAINS POSTED TODAY FOR ALL WATERS DUE TO INCREASING SW FLOW
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. THIS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE DURING
AFTERNOON.

SW WINDS DROP OFF A BIT TONIGHT AND MON BUT SEAS CONTINUE TO
BUILD ON OUTER WATERS TO 6 OR 7 FT. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...BEFORE CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE MON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT... COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE EVENING WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS SHIFT TO WEST.  SEAS 5-7 FEET IN
THE EVENING SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS.  SEAS AT 5 FEET MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER
WATERS FOR PART OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271828
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
228 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAPER
OFF BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH A SECOND BATCH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE MARITIMES AND NEW
ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

230 PM UPDATE...

*** HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN MA AND
 RI MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ***

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST/DISCUSSION AS WARM FRONTAL
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RI AT 2 PM.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS...THIS INCLUDES THE NORTH SHORE OF BOSTON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY 3 OR 4 PM OR SO. FARTHER WEST
ACROSS NY AND PA IN THE TRUE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS CLOUDS GIVE WAY
TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS WARM SECTOR AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THIS REGION. THUS THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
A TREND FOR THE RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DIMINISH WITH TIME.

TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST. QUITE MUGGY WITH DEW PTS 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

*** LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT ***
*** FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN MON ***

CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND
PERHAPS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE AT BEST IN HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

ONCE ANY STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ATTENTION TURNS TO
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. HIGHER-RES
MODELS INCLUDING 00Z NAM ARE MORE INSISTENT THAT ITS REMNANTS WILL
TRACK NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROBABLY NEAR S
COAST IF NOT A BIT FARTHER INLAND. 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING
MORE WITH THIS FEATURE...PROBABLY DUE TO ITS COARSER RESOLUTION...
BUT ALSO HINTS AT SOME SORT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF REGION TONIGHT.

OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT IS QUESTIONABLE AS WE REMAIN
UNSTABLE BUT 0-3KM SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES DROP OFF A BIT. CERTAINLY
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. FLASH FLOOD THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME...NOR DO WE HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN GREATEST THREAT AREA.MONDAY NIGHT...LINGERING AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR OR TRENDING TO VFR.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND DIMINISH.

UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TO OUR W MON AS SURFACE LOW LIKELY PASSES JUST
TO OUR W. THIS SHOULD FOCUS MOST OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR W AND N
WHERE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING RESIDES. WE MAY EVEN END UP WITH
A DRY SLOT ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BUT PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS THERE. ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE QUESTIONS AS TO
HOW MUCH CLEARING WE ACTUALLY SEE AND IF THAT GENERATES ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MON AFTERNOON. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ENVIRONMENT WOULD FEATURE DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS.

DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY...USED BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE EFFECT OF THIS PATTERN WILL BE
TO BRING SIMILAR WEATHER EACH DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CORE OF THE EASTERN NO-AM TROUGH
EJECTING NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAVE
ROOM FOR THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO SHIFT WEST BY SATURDAY.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA...ALL
THE WHILE SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THEN OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND BECOME LIGHT. THE
AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL MOVE OFF. EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AT NIGHT.  SUFFICIENT AIRMASS
DRYING IS INDICATED TO SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MARITIMES AND
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND IS UNDER
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT ZONE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER NY/ONTARIO
WITH DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THE UPPER FEATURES
SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OR WEST...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PART OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT DRY
WEATHER IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO.

SATURDAY... AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH...EXPECT THE OFFSHORE
FRONT TO SHIFT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THIS SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

215 PM UPDATE...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON
NIGHT.

THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR
4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.
ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR
BY 4 PM.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO
ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE
AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON.
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON
MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/VFR THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
AFTER 07Z AS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE TERMINAL. HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR BUT WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY SRN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MASS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MON.

SCA REMAINS POSTED TODAY FOR ALL WATERS DUE TO INCREASING SW FLOW
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. THIS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE DURING
AFTERNOON.

SW WINDS DROP OFF A BIT TONIGHT AND MON BUT SEAS CONTINUE TO
BUILD ON OUTER WATERS TO 6 OR 7 FT. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...BEFORE CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE MON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT... COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE EVENING WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS SHIFT TO WEST.  SEAS 5-7 FEET IN
THE EVENING SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS.  SEAS AT 5 FEET MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER
WATERS FOR PART OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271828
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
228 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAPER
OFF BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH A SECOND BATCH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE MARITIMES AND NEW
ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

230 PM UPDATE...

*** HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN MA AND
 RI MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ***

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST/DISCUSSION AS WARM FRONTAL
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RI AT 2 PM.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS...THIS INCLUDES THE NORTH SHORE OF BOSTON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY 3 OR 4 PM OR SO. FARTHER WEST
ACROSS NY AND PA IN THE TRUE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS CLOUDS GIVE WAY
TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS WARM SECTOR AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THIS REGION. THUS THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
A TREND FOR THE RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DIMINISH WITH TIME.

TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST. QUITE MUGGY WITH DEW PTS 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

*** LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT ***
*** FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN MON ***

CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND
PERHAPS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE AT BEST IN HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

ONCE ANY STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ATTENTION TURNS TO
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. HIGHER-RES
MODELS INCLUDING 00Z NAM ARE MORE INSISTENT THAT ITS REMNANTS WILL
TRACK NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROBABLY NEAR S
COAST IF NOT A BIT FARTHER INLAND. 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING
MORE WITH THIS FEATURE...PROBABLY DUE TO ITS COARSER RESOLUTION...
BUT ALSO HINTS AT SOME SORT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF REGION TONIGHT.

OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT IS QUESTIONABLE AS WE REMAIN
UNSTABLE BUT 0-3KM SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES DROP OFF A BIT. CERTAINLY
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. FLASH FLOOD THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME...NOR DO WE HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN GREATEST THREAT AREA.MONDAY NIGHT...LINGERING AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR OR TRENDING TO VFR.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND DIMINISH.

UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TO OUR W MON AS SURFACE LOW LIKELY PASSES JUST
TO OUR W. THIS SHOULD FOCUS MOST OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR W AND N
WHERE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING RESIDES. WE MAY EVEN END UP WITH
A DRY SLOT ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BUT PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS THERE. ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE QUESTIONS AS TO
HOW MUCH CLEARING WE ACTUALLY SEE AND IF THAT GENERATES ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MON AFTERNOON. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ENVIRONMENT WOULD FEATURE DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS.

DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY...USED BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE EFFECT OF THIS PATTERN WILL BE
TO BRING SIMILAR WEATHER EACH DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CORE OF THE EASTERN NO-AM TROUGH
EJECTING NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAVE
ROOM FOR THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO SHIFT WEST BY SATURDAY.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA...ALL
THE WHILE SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THEN OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND BECOME LIGHT. THE
AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL MOVE OFF. EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AT NIGHT.  SUFFICIENT AIRMASS
DRYING IS INDICATED TO SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MARITIMES AND
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND IS UNDER
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT ZONE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER NY/ONTARIO
WITH DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THE UPPER FEATURES
SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OR WEST...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PART OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT DRY
WEATHER IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO.

SATURDAY... AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH...EXPECT THE OFFSHORE
FRONT TO SHIFT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THIS SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

215 PM UPDATE...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON
NIGHT.

THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR
4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.
ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR
BY 4 PM.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO
ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE
AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON.
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON
MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/VFR THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
AFTER 07Z AS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE TERMINAL. HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR BUT WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY SRN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MASS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MON.

SCA REMAINS POSTED TODAY FOR ALL WATERS DUE TO INCREASING SW FLOW
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. THIS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE DURING
AFTERNOON.

SW WINDS DROP OFF A BIT TONIGHT AND MON BUT SEAS CONTINUE TO
BUILD ON OUTER WATERS TO 6 OR 7 FT. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...BEFORE CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE MON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT... COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE EVENING WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS SHIFT TO WEST.  SEAS 5-7 FEET IN
THE EVENING SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS.  SEAS AT 5 FEET MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER
WATERS FOR PART OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271828
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
228 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAPER
OFF BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH A SECOND BATCH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE MARITIMES AND NEW
ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

230 PM UPDATE...

*** HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN MA AND
 RI MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ***

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST/DISCUSSION AS WARM FRONTAL
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RI AT 2 PM.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS...THIS INCLUDES THE NORTH SHORE OF BOSTON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY 3 OR 4 PM OR SO. FARTHER WEST
ACROSS NY AND PA IN THE TRUE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS CLOUDS GIVE WAY
TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH CONVECTION IN THIS WARM SECTOR AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THIS REGION. THUS THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH
A TREND FOR THE RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DIMINISH WITH TIME.

TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST. QUITE MUGGY WITH DEW PTS 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

*** LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT ***
*** FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN MON ***

CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND
PERHAPS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE AT BEST IN HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

ONCE ANY STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ATTENTION TURNS TO
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. HIGHER-RES
MODELS INCLUDING 00Z NAM ARE MORE INSISTENT THAT ITS REMNANTS WILL
TRACK NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROBABLY NEAR S
COAST IF NOT A BIT FARTHER INLAND. 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING
MORE WITH THIS FEATURE...PROBABLY DUE TO ITS COARSER RESOLUTION...
BUT ALSO HINTS AT SOME SORT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF REGION TONIGHT.

OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT IS QUESTIONABLE AS WE REMAIN
UNSTABLE BUT 0-3KM SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES DROP OFF A BIT. CERTAINLY
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. FLASH FLOOD THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME...NOR DO WE HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN GREATEST THREAT AREA.MONDAY NIGHT...LINGERING AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR OR TRENDING TO VFR.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND DIMINISH.

UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TO OUR W MON AS SURFACE LOW LIKELY PASSES JUST
TO OUR W. THIS SHOULD FOCUS MOST OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR W AND N
WHERE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING RESIDES. WE MAY EVEN END UP WITH
A DRY SLOT ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BUT PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS THERE. ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE QUESTIONS AS TO
HOW MUCH CLEARING WE ACTUALLY SEE AND IF THAT GENERATES ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MON AFTERNOON. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ENVIRONMENT WOULD FEATURE DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS.

DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY...USED BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE EFFECT OF THIS PATTERN WILL BE
TO BRING SIMILAR WEATHER EACH DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CORE OF THE EASTERN NO-AM TROUGH
EJECTING NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAVE
ROOM FOR THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO SHIFT WEST BY SATURDAY.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA...ALL
THE WHILE SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THEN OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND BECOME LIGHT. THE
AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL MOVE OFF. EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AT NIGHT.  SUFFICIENT AIRMASS
DRYING IS INDICATED TO SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MARITIMES AND
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND IS UNDER
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT ZONE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER NY/ONTARIO
WITH DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THE UPPER FEATURES
SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OR WEST...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PART OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT DRY
WEATHER IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO.

SATURDAY... AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH...EXPECT THE OFFSHORE
FRONT TO SHIFT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THIS SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

215 PM UPDATE...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON
NIGHT.

THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR
4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.
ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR
BY 4 PM.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO
ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE
AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON.
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON
MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/VFR THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
AFTER 07Z AS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE TERMINAL. HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR BUT WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY SRN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MASS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MON.

SCA REMAINS POSTED TODAY FOR ALL WATERS DUE TO INCREASING SW FLOW
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. THIS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE DURING
AFTERNOON.

SW WINDS DROP OFF A BIT TONIGHT AND MON BUT SEAS CONTINUE TO
BUILD ON OUTER WATERS TO 6 OR 7 FT. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...BEFORE CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE MON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT... COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE EVENING WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS SHIFT TO WEST.  SEAS 5-7 FEET IN
THE EVENING SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS.  SEAS AT 5 FEET MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER
WATERS FOR PART OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KALY 271736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT TO LOWER RAIN PROBABILITIES IN SOME AREAS AND SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
IN SOUTHERN AREAS. 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT BASED ON TRENDS AND THE CONVECTION
THAT EXITED OUR REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...NO REAL TRIGGER TO
INITIATE NEW CONVECTION. ALSO...DRYING ALOFT...SEEN IN UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS PROBABLY ACTING TO CAP CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE.

STILL...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD STRENGTHEN AS WE APPROACH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME BROAD CONVERGENCE
SEEN IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION IN MESOSCALE
ANALYSES BUT OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING ARE DIFFICULT TO DETECT. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND BASED ON INSTABILITY...COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...SO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 271736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT TO LOWER RAIN PROBABILITIES IN SOME AREAS AND SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
IN SOUTHERN AREAS. 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT BASED ON TRENDS AND THE CONVECTION
THAT EXITED OUR REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...NO REAL TRIGGER TO
INITIATE NEW CONVECTION. ALSO...DRYING ALOFT...SEEN IN UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS PROBABLY ACTING TO CAP CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE.

STILL...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD STRENGTHEN AS WE APPROACH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME BROAD CONVERGENCE
SEEN IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION IN MESOSCALE
ANALYSES BUT OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING ARE DIFFICULT TO DETECT. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND BASED ON INSTABILITY...COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...SO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 271736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT TO LOWER RAIN PROBABILITIES IN SOME AREAS AND SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
IN SOUTHERN AREAS. 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT BASED ON TRENDS AND THE CONVECTION
THAT EXITED OUR REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...NO REAL TRIGGER TO
INITIATE NEW CONVECTION. ALSO...DRYING ALOFT...SEEN IN UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS PROBABLY ACTING TO CAP CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE.

STILL...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD STRENGTHEN AS WE APPROACH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME BROAD CONVERGENCE
SEEN IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION IN MESOSCALE
ANALYSES BUT OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING ARE DIFFICULT TO DETECT. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND BASED ON INSTABILITY...COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...SO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 271736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT TO LOWER RAIN PROBABILITIES IN SOME AREAS AND SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
IN SOUTHERN AREAS. 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT BASED ON TRENDS AND THE CONVECTION
THAT EXITED OUR REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...NO REAL TRIGGER TO
INITIATE NEW CONVECTION. ALSO...DRYING ALOFT...SEEN IN UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS PROBABLY ACTING TO CAP CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE.

STILL...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD STRENGTHEN AS WE APPROACH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME BROAD CONVERGENCE
SEEN IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION IN MESOSCALE
ANALYSES BUT OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING ARE DIFFICULT TO DETECT. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND BASED ON INSTABILITY...COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...SO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 271704
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT TO LOWER RAIN PROBABILITIES IN SOME AREAS AND SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
IN SOUTHERN AREAS. 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT BASED ON TRENDS AND THE CONVECTION
THAT EXITED OUR REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...NO REAL TRIGGER TO
INITIATE NEW CONVECTION. ALSO...DRYING ALOFT...SEEN IN UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS PROBABLY ACTING TO CAP CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE.

STILL...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD STRENGTHEN AS WE APPROACH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME BROAD CONVERGENCE
SEEN IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION IN MESOSCALE
ANALYSES BUT OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING ARE DIFFICULT TO DETECT. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND BASED ON INSTABILITY...COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...SO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 271704
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT TO LOWER RAIN PROBABILITIES IN SOME AREAS AND SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
IN SOUTHERN AREAS. 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT BASED ON TRENDS AND THE CONVECTION
THAT EXITED OUR REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...NO REAL TRIGGER TO
INITIATE NEW CONVECTION. ALSO...DRYING ALOFT...SEEN IN UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS PROBABLY ACTING TO CAP CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE.

STILL...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD STRENGTHEN AS WE APPROACH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME BROAD CONVERGENCE
SEEN IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION IN MESOSCALE
ANALYSES BUT OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING ARE DIFFICULT TO DETECT. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND BASED ON INSTABILITY...COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...SO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 271430
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
WILL IMPACT THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTINCT SHORT
WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY IS TIED TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO
LIGHTNING AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
OF LIGHTNING HAS GRADUALLY BEEN DECREASING.

ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION...NOT MUCH FORCING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAKES
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION QUITE NEBULOUS. MODELS SHOWING
BEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...WHICH COINCIDES WITH WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 6.5
TO 7 C/KM...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...WITH A DISTINCT LACK OF A TRIGGER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/JPV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 271430
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
WILL IMPACT THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTINCT SHORT
WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY IS TIED TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO
LIGHTNING AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
OF LIGHTNING HAS GRADUALLY BEEN DECREASING.

ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION...NOT MUCH FORCING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAKES
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION QUITE NEBULOUS. MODELS SHOWING
BEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...WHICH COINCIDES WITH WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 6.5
TO 7 C/KM...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...WITH A DISTINCT LACK OF A TRIGGER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/JPV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KBOX 271342
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
942 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ESPECIALLY MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT STALLS
OVER THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS FROM MIDWEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

930 AM UPDATE...

*** WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LESS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/
 EVENING...HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ***

WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM EASTERN NY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AT 930 AM. MODELS HANDLING THIS PRECIP
FAIRLY WELL AND TRANSLATE THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...REACHING EASTERN
MA BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM...THEN OFFSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON. AS THIS
INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE THEN ADVECTS SHORT WAVE RIDGING FROM THE
EASTERN LAKES AND WESTERN NY/PA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ADVECTS INTO OUR REGION SO DOES MID LEVEL DRY
WHICH GETS DEEPER WITH TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
WILL ESSENTIALLY PROVIDE A SUBSIDENCE CAP WITH DEEPENING DRY AIR
ALOFT CHOKING/MINIMIZING UPDRAFT POTENTIAL.

IN FACT THIS DEEPENING MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND ASSOCIATED CAP WILL
PRECLUDE SURFACE DEW PTS FROM MIXING OUT AND YIELDING FAIRLY HIGH
SB CAPES VALUES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD WIN OUT. NEVERTHELESS THERE
WILL BE A VERY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND THAT WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE WARM FRONTAL
PRECIP AND ONLY IF SURFACE HEATING CAN COMMENCE QUICKLY BEFORE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/MID LEVEL DRY AIR
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. THUS THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS
IS VERY LOW WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG
TSTM MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

CLOUDS PUSHING INTO W NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT
OF EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WEAKENED AS
THEY REACHED BERKSHIRES...AND BULK OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS TO OUR N THROUGH SUNRISE.

MEANWHILE STORMS OVER ONTARIO WILL TRACK NE THIS MORNING AS
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN NY PER HIGH-RES
MODELS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE WILL YIELD DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND WILL RESULT IN
BAND OF SHOWER/STORMS CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
BACK EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH CT VALLEY BY MID MORNING
AND E MA COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS THEN MODERATE AT BEST IN HOW THINGS EVOLVE. CONCERN
IS WHETHER WE CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE TO
PRODUCE A ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. ON LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING...BUT WOULD ALSO MITIGATE ORGANIZED STORM THREAT.
HOWEVER WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEW
POINTS NEAR 70/ WE THINK AT LEAST A FEW STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY MORE FAVORABLE WELL
TO OUR S AND W. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SCATTERED STORMS.

ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FEATURE MODERATE CAPE AND DECENT 0-3KM SHEAR
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOULD STORMS BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...MAIN
THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO AS WELL IN W NEW ENGLAND WHERE FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
SHOW PLENTY OF TURNING AT LOWER LEVELS. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE...LEANED ON
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN 70S TO AROUND 80. CERTAINLY
COULD REACH MID 80S SHOULD ENOUGH SUN BREAK OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

*** LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT ***
*** FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN MON ***

CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND
PERHAPS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE AT BEST IN HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

ONCE ANY STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ATTENTION TURNS TO
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. HIGHER-RES
MODELS INCLUDING 00Z NAM ARE MORE INSISTENT THAT ITS REMNANTS WILL
TRACK NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROBABLY NEAR S
COAST IF NOT A BIT FARTHER INLAND. 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING
MORE WITH THIS FEATURE...PROBABLY DUE TO ITS COARSER RESOLUTION...
BUT ALSO HINTS AT SOME SORT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF REGION TONIGHT.

OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT IS QUESTIONABLE AS WE REMAIN
UNSTABLE BUT 0-3KM SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES DROP OFF A BIT. CERTAINLY
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. FLASH FLOOD THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME...NOR DO WE HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN GREATEST THREAT AREA.

UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TO OUR W MON AS SURFACE LOW LIKELY PASSES JUST
TO OUR W. THIS SHOULD FOCUS MOST OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR W AND N
WHERE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING RESIDES. WE MAY EVEN END UP WITH
A DRY SLOT ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BUT PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS THERE. ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE QUESTIONS AS TO
HOW MUCH CLEARING WE ACTUALLY SEE AND IF THAT GENERATES ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MON AFTERNOON. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ENVIRONMENT WOULD FEATURE DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS.

DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY...USED BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE EFFECT OF THIS PATTERN WILL BE
TO BRING SIMILAR WEATHER EACH DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CORE OF THE EASTERN NO-AM TROUGH
EJECTING NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAVE
ROOM FOR THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO SHIFT WEST BY SATURDAY.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA...ALL
THE WHILE SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THEN OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND BECOME LIGHT. THE
AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL MOVE OFF. EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AT NIGHT.  SUFFICIENT AIRMASS
DRYING IS INDICATED TO SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MARITIMES AND
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND IS UNDER
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT ZONE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER NY/ONTARIO
WITH DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THE UPPER FEATURES
SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OR WEST...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PART OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT DRY
WEATHER IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO.

SATURDAY... AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH...EXPECT THE OFFSHORE
FRONT TO SHIFT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THIS SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

930 AM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IS AFTER LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS...WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING APPEAR LESS LIKELY. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS UNCHANGED. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===============================================================

ACTIVITY OVER ONTARIO AND W NY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF
REGION THIS MORNING. CIGS REMAIN VFR WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT VSBYS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR. BACK EDGE MOVES OUT OF CT VALLEY BY 15Z AND
E MA COAST AROUND 18Z.

VFR CIGS AOA 050 REMAIN IN ITS WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN W NEW
ENGLAND WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR.

IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...FIRST ALONG S
COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AROUND SUNSET BEFORE SPREADING
INLAND. ALSO EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z MON AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS SHIFTS N AND W OF REGION.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PREVAILING SW FLOW. SHOWERS/STORMS
MOST LIKELY 15Z-18Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS MOST LIKELY
13Z-15Z WITH SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE VFR OR TRENDING TO VFR.  WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND DIMINISH.

TUESDAY...VFR BUT WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY SRN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MASS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MON.

SCA REMAINS POSTED TODAY FOR ALL WATERS DUE TO INCREASING SW FLOW
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. THIS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE DURING
AFTERNOON.

SW WINDS DROP OFF A BIT TONIGHT AND MON BUT SEAS CONTINUE TO
BUILD ON OUTER WATERS TO 6 OR 7 FT. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...BEFORE CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE MON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT... COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE EVENING WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS SHIFT TO WEST.  SEAS 5-7 FEET IN
THE EVENING SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS.  SEAS AT 5 FEET MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER
WATERS FOR PART OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>234-236-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271342
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
942 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ESPECIALLY MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT STALLS
OVER THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS FROM MIDWEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

930 AM UPDATE...

*** WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LESS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/
 EVENING...HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ***

WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM EASTERN NY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AT 930 AM. MODELS HANDLING THIS PRECIP
FAIRLY WELL AND TRANSLATE THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...REACHING EASTERN
MA BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM...THEN OFFSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON. AS THIS
INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE THEN ADVECTS SHORT WAVE RIDGING FROM THE
EASTERN LAKES AND WESTERN NY/PA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ADVECTS INTO OUR REGION SO DOES MID LEVEL DRY
WHICH GETS DEEPER WITH TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
WILL ESSENTIALLY PROVIDE A SUBSIDENCE CAP WITH DEEPENING DRY AIR
ALOFT CHOKING/MINIMIZING UPDRAFT POTENTIAL.

IN FACT THIS DEEPENING MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND ASSOCIATED CAP WILL
PRECLUDE SURFACE DEW PTS FROM MIXING OUT AND YIELDING FAIRLY HIGH
SB CAPES VALUES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD WIN OUT. NEVERTHELESS THERE
WILL BE A VERY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND THAT WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE WARM FRONTAL
PRECIP AND ONLY IF SURFACE HEATING CAN COMMENCE QUICKLY BEFORE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/MID LEVEL DRY AIR
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. THUS THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS
IS VERY LOW WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG
TSTM MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

CLOUDS PUSHING INTO W NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT
OF EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WEAKENED AS
THEY REACHED BERKSHIRES...AND BULK OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS TO OUR N THROUGH SUNRISE.

MEANWHILE STORMS OVER ONTARIO WILL TRACK NE THIS MORNING AS
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN NY PER HIGH-RES
MODELS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE WILL YIELD DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND WILL RESULT IN
BAND OF SHOWER/STORMS CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
BACK EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH CT VALLEY BY MID MORNING
AND E MA COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS THEN MODERATE AT BEST IN HOW THINGS EVOLVE. CONCERN
IS WHETHER WE CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE TO
PRODUCE A ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. ON LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING...BUT WOULD ALSO MITIGATE ORGANIZED STORM THREAT.
HOWEVER WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEW
POINTS NEAR 70/ WE THINK AT LEAST A FEW STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY MORE FAVORABLE WELL
TO OUR S AND W. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SCATTERED STORMS.

ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FEATURE MODERATE CAPE AND DECENT 0-3KM SHEAR
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOULD STORMS BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...MAIN
THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO AS WELL IN W NEW ENGLAND WHERE FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
SHOW PLENTY OF TURNING AT LOWER LEVELS. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE...LEANED ON
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN 70S TO AROUND 80. CERTAINLY
COULD REACH MID 80S SHOULD ENOUGH SUN BREAK OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

*** LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT ***
*** FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN MON ***

CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND
PERHAPS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE AT BEST IN HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

ONCE ANY STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ATTENTION TURNS TO
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. HIGHER-RES
MODELS INCLUDING 00Z NAM ARE MORE INSISTENT THAT ITS REMNANTS WILL
TRACK NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROBABLY NEAR S
COAST IF NOT A BIT FARTHER INLAND. 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING
MORE WITH THIS FEATURE...PROBABLY DUE TO ITS COARSER RESOLUTION...
BUT ALSO HINTS AT SOME SORT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF REGION TONIGHT.

OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT IS QUESTIONABLE AS WE REMAIN
UNSTABLE BUT 0-3KM SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES DROP OFF A BIT. CERTAINLY
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. FLASH FLOOD THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME...NOR DO WE HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN GREATEST THREAT AREA.

UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TO OUR W MON AS SURFACE LOW LIKELY PASSES JUST
TO OUR W. THIS SHOULD FOCUS MOST OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR W AND N
WHERE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING RESIDES. WE MAY EVEN END UP WITH
A DRY SLOT ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BUT PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS THERE. ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE QUESTIONS AS TO
HOW MUCH CLEARING WE ACTUALLY SEE AND IF THAT GENERATES ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MON AFTERNOON. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ENVIRONMENT WOULD FEATURE DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS.

DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY...USED BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE EFFECT OF THIS PATTERN WILL BE
TO BRING SIMILAR WEATHER EACH DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CORE OF THE EASTERN NO-AM TROUGH
EJECTING NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAVE
ROOM FOR THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO SHIFT WEST BY SATURDAY.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA...ALL
THE WHILE SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THEN OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND BECOME LIGHT. THE
AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL MOVE OFF. EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AT NIGHT.  SUFFICIENT AIRMASS
DRYING IS INDICATED TO SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MARITIMES AND
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND IS UNDER
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT ZONE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER NY/ONTARIO
WITH DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THE UPPER FEATURES
SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OR WEST...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PART OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT DRY
WEATHER IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO.

SATURDAY... AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH...EXPECT THE OFFSHORE
FRONT TO SHIFT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THIS SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

930 AM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IS AFTER LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS...WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING APPEAR LESS LIKELY. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS UNCHANGED. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===============================================================

ACTIVITY OVER ONTARIO AND W NY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF
REGION THIS MORNING. CIGS REMAIN VFR WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT VSBYS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR. BACK EDGE MOVES OUT OF CT VALLEY BY 15Z AND
E MA COAST AROUND 18Z.

VFR CIGS AOA 050 REMAIN IN ITS WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN W NEW
ENGLAND WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR.

IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...FIRST ALONG S
COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AROUND SUNSET BEFORE SPREADING
INLAND. ALSO EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z MON AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS SHIFTS N AND W OF REGION.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PREVAILING SW FLOW. SHOWERS/STORMS
MOST LIKELY 15Z-18Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS MOST LIKELY
13Z-15Z WITH SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE VFR OR TRENDING TO VFR.  WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND DIMINISH.

TUESDAY...VFR BUT WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY SRN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MASS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MON.

SCA REMAINS POSTED TODAY FOR ALL WATERS DUE TO INCREASING SW FLOW
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. THIS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE DURING
AFTERNOON.

SW WINDS DROP OFF A BIT TONIGHT AND MON BUT SEAS CONTINUE TO
BUILD ON OUTER WATERS TO 6 OR 7 FT. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...BEFORE CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE MON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT... COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE EVENING WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS SHIFT TO WEST.  SEAS 5-7 FEET IN
THE EVENING SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS.  SEAS AT 5 FEET MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER
WATERS FOR PART OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>234-236-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271101
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE MARITIMES
AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

7 AM UPDATE...

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON
MOVEMENT OF UPSTREAM SHOWERS/TSTMS IN NY/PA/NJ. NO CHANGES IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY ***

CLOUDS PUSHING INTO W NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT
OF EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WEAKENED AS
THEY REACHED BERKSHIRES...AND BULK OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS TO OUR N THROUGH SUNRISE.

MEANWHILE STORMS OVER ONTARIO WILL TRACK NE THIS MORNING AS
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN NY PER HIGH-RES
MODELS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE WILL YIELD DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND WILL RESULT IN
BAND OF SHOWER/STORMS CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
BACK EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH CT VALLEY BY MID MORNING
AND E MA COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS THEN MODERATE AT BEST IN HOW THINGS EVOLVE. CONCERN
IS WHETHER WE CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE TO
PRODUCE A ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. ON LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING...BUT WOULD ALSO MITIGATE ORGANIZED STORM THREAT.
HOWEVER WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEW
POINTS NEAR 70/ WE THINK AT LEAST A FEW STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY MORE FAVORABLE WELL
TO OUR S AND W. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SCATTERED STORMS.

ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FEATURE MODERATE CAPE AND DECENT 0-3KM SHEAR
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOULD STORMS BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...MAIN
THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO AS WELL IN W NEW ENGLAND WHERE FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
SHOW PLENTY OF TURNING AT LOWER LEVELS. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE...LEANED ON
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN 70S TO AROUND 80. CERTAINLY
COULD REACH MID 80S SHOULD ENOUGH SUN BREAK OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
*** LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT ***
*** FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN MON ***

CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND
PERHAPS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE AT BEST IN HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

ONCE ANY STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ATTENTION TURNS TO
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. HIGHER-RES
MODELS INCLUDING 00Z NAM ARE MORE INSISTENT THAT ITS REMNANTS WILL
TRACK NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROBABLY NEAR S
COAST IF NOT A BIT FARTHER INLAND. 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING
MORE WITH THIS FEATURE...PROBABLY DUE TO ITS COARSER RESOLUTION...
BUT ALSO HINTS AT SOME SORT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF REGION TONIGHT.

OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT IS QUESTIONABLE AS WE REMAIN
UNSTABLE BUT 0-3KM SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES DROP OFF A BIT. CERTAINLY
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. FLASH FLOOD THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME...NOR DO WE HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN GREATEST THREAT AREA.

UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TO OUR W MON AS SURFACE LOW LIKELY PASSES JUST
TO OUR W. THIS SHOULD FOCUS MOST OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR W AND N
WHERE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING RESIDES. WE MAY EVEN END UP WITH
A DRY SLOT ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BUT PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS THERE. ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE QUESTIONS AS TO
HOW MUCH CLEARING WE ACTUALLY SEE AND IF THAT GENERATES ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MON AFTERNOON. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ENVIRONMENT WOULD FEATURE DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS.

DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY...USED BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE EFFECT OF THIS PATTERN WILL BE
TO BRING SIMILAR WEATHER EACH DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CORE OF THE EASTERN NO-AM TROUGH
EJECTING NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAVE
ROOM FOR THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO SHIFT WEST BY SATURDAY.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA...ALL
THE WHILE SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THEN OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND BECOME LIGHT. THE
AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL MOVE OFF. EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AT NIGHT.  SUFFICIENT AIRMASS
DRYING IS INDICATED TO SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MARITIMES AND
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND IS UNDER
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT ZONE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER NY/ONTARIO
WITH DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THE UPPER FEATURES
SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OR WEST...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PART OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT DRY
WEATHER IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO.

SATURDAY... AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH...EXPECT THE OFFSHORE
FRONT TO SHIFT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THIS SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

ACTIVITY OVER ONTARIO AND W NY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF
REGION THIS MORNING. CIGS REMAIN VFR WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT VSBYS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR. BACK EDGE MOVES OUT OF CT VALLEY BY 15Z AND
E MA COAST AROUND 18Z.

VFR CIGS AOA 050 REMAIN IN ITS WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN W NEW
ENGLAND WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR.

IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...FIRST ALONG S
COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AROUND SUNSET BEFORE SPREADING
INLAND. ALSO EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z MON AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS SHIFTS N AND W OF REGION.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PREVAILING SW FLOW. SHOWERS/STORMS
MOST LIKELY 15Z-18Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS MOST LIKELY
13Z-15Z WITH SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE VFR OR TRENDING TO VFR.  WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND DIMINISH.

TUESDAY...VFR BUT WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY SRN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MASS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MON.

SCA REMAINS POSTED TODAY FOR ALL WATERS DUE TO INCREASING SW FLOW
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. THIS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE DURING
AFTERNOON.

SW WINDS DROP OFF A BIT TONIGHT AND MON BUT SEAS CONTINUE TO
BUILD ON OUTER WATERS TO 6 OR 7 FT. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...BEFORE CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE MON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT... COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE EVENING WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS SHIFT TO WEST.  SEAS 5-7 FEET IN
THE EVENING SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS.  SEAS AT 5 FEET MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER
WATERS FOR PART OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>234-236-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271101
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
701 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE MARITIMES
AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

7 AM UPDATE...

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF POPS THIS MORNING BASED ON
MOVEMENT OF UPSTREAM SHOWERS/TSTMS IN NY/PA/NJ. NO CHANGES IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY ***

CLOUDS PUSHING INTO W NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT
OF EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WEAKENED AS
THEY REACHED BERKSHIRES...AND BULK OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS TO OUR N THROUGH SUNRISE.

MEANWHILE STORMS OVER ONTARIO WILL TRACK NE THIS MORNING AS
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN NY PER HIGH-RES
MODELS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE WILL YIELD DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND WILL RESULT IN
BAND OF SHOWER/STORMS CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
BACK EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH CT VALLEY BY MID MORNING
AND E MA COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS THEN MODERATE AT BEST IN HOW THINGS EVOLVE. CONCERN
IS WHETHER WE CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE TO
PRODUCE A ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. ON LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING...BUT WOULD ALSO MITIGATE ORGANIZED STORM THREAT.
HOWEVER WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEW
POINTS NEAR 70/ WE THINK AT LEAST A FEW STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY MORE FAVORABLE WELL
TO OUR S AND W. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SCATTERED STORMS.

ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FEATURE MODERATE CAPE AND DECENT 0-3KM SHEAR
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOULD STORMS BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...MAIN
THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO AS WELL IN W NEW ENGLAND WHERE FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
SHOW PLENTY OF TURNING AT LOWER LEVELS. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE...LEANED ON
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN 70S TO AROUND 80. CERTAINLY
COULD REACH MID 80S SHOULD ENOUGH SUN BREAK OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
*** LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT ***
*** FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN MON ***

CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND
PERHAPS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE AT BEST IN HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

ONCE ANY STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ATTENTION TURNS TO
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. HIGHER-RES
MODELS INCLUDING 00Z NAM ARE MORE INSISTENT THAT ITS REMNANTS WILL
TRACK NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROBABLY NEAR S
COAST IF NOT A BIT FARTHER INLAND. 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING
MORE WITH THIS FEATURE...PROBABLY DUE TO ITS COARSER RESOLUTION...
BUT ALSO HINTS AT SOME SORT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF REGION TONIGHT.

OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT IS QUESTIONABLE AS WE REMAIN
UNSTABLE BUT 0-3KM SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES DROP OFF A BIT. CERTAINLY
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. FLASH FLOOD THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME...NOR DO WE HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN GREATEST THREAT AREA.

UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TO OUR W MON AS SURFACE LOW LIKELY PASSES JUST
TO OUR W. THIS SHOULD FOCUS MOST OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR W AND N
WHERE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING RESIDES. WE MAY EVEN END UP WITH
A DRY SLOT ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BUT PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS THERE. ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE QUESTIONS AS TO
HOW MUCH CLEARING WE ACTUALLY SEE AND IF THAT GENERATES ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MON AFTERNOON. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ENVIRONMENT WOULD FEATURE DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS.

DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY...USED BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE EFFECT OF THIS PATTERN WILL BE
TO BRING SIMILAR WEATHER EACH DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CORE OF THE EASTERN NO-AM TROUGH
EJECTING NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAVE
ROOM FOR THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO SHIFT WEST BY SATURDAY.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA...ALL
THE WHILE SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THEN OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND BECOME LIGHT. THE
AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL MOVE OFF. EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AT NIGHT.  SUFFICIENT AIRMASS
DRYING IS INDICATED TO SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MARITIMES AND
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND IS UNDER
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT ZONE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER NY/ONTARIO
WITH DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THE UPPER FEATURES
SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OR WEST...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PART OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT DRY
WEATHER IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO.

SATURDAY... AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH...EXPECT THE OFFSHORE
FRONT TO SHIFT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THIS SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

ACTIVITY OVER ONTARIO AND W NY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF
REGION THIS MORNING. CIGS REMAIN VFR WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT VSBYS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR. BACK EDGE MOVES OUT OF CT VALLEY BY 15Z AND
E MA COAST AROUND 18Z.

VFR CIGS AOA 050 REMAIN IN ITS WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN W NEW
ENGLAND WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR.

IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...FIRST ALONG S
COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AROUND SUNSET BEFORE SPREADING
INLAND. ALSO EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z MON AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS SHIFTS N AND W OF REGION.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PREVAILING SW FLOW. SHOWERS/STORMS
MOST LIKELY 15Z-18Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS MOST LIKELY
13Z-15Z WITH SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE VFR OR TRENDING TO VFR.  WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND DIMINISH.

TUESDAY...VFR BUT WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY SRN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MASS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MON.

SCA REMAINS POSTED TODAY FOR ALL WATERS DUE TO INCREASING SW FLOW
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. THIS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE DURING
AFTERNOON.

SW WINDS DROP OFF A BIT TONIGHT AND MON BUT SEAS CONTINUE TO
BUILD ON OUTER WATERS TO 6 OR 7 FT. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...BEFORE CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE MON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT... COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE EVENING WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS SHIFT TO WEST.  SEAS 5-7 FEET IN
THE EVENING SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS.  SEAS AT 5 FEET MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER
WATERS FOR PART OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>234-236-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KALY 271016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS AND MADE CONSIDERABLE CHANGES TO
THE POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A WELL
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE FA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARN FRONT ACRS WRN NY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THEREAFTER UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG AND THIS AREA HAS
BEEN OUTLOOKED AS SLIGHT RISK BY SPC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 271016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS AND MADE CONSIDERABLE CHANGES TO
THE POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A WELL
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE FA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARN FRONT ACRS WRN NY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THEREAFTER UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG AND THIS AREA HAS
BEEN OUTLOOKED AS SLIGHT RISK BY SPC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 271016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS AND MADE CONSIDERABLE CHANGES TO
THE POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A WELL
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE FA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARN FRONT ACRS WRN NY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THEREAFTER UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG AND THIS AREA HAS
BEEN OUTLOOKED AS SLIGHT RISK BY SPC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 271016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS AND MADE CONSIDERABLE CHANGES TO
THE POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A WELL
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE FA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARN FRONT ACRS WRN NY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THEREAFTER UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG AND THIS AREA HAS
BEEN OUTLOOKED AS SLIGHT RISK BY SPC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 270924
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
524 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS AND MADE CONSIDERABLE CHANGES TO
THE POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A WELL
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE FA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARN FRONT ACRS WRN NY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THEREAFTER UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG AND THIS AREA HAS
BEEN OUTLOOKED AS SLIGHT RISK BY SPC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL THE FA IS IMPACTED BY A SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CONDS IN THE TAFS
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z WITH THE CONDS DETERIORATING FIRST AT KPOU AND LATER
AT ALB...KPSF AND KGFL.

FOR TODAY...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 270924
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
524 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS AND MADE CONSIDERABLE CHANGES TO
THE POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A WELL
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE FA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARN FRONT ACRS WRN NY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THEREAFTER UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG AND THIS AREA HAS
BEEN OUTLOOKED AS SLIGHT RISK BY SPC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL THE FA IS IMPACTED BY A SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CONDS IN THE TAFS
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z WITH THE CONDS DETERIORATING FIRST AT KPOU AND LATER
AT ALB...KPSF AND KGFL.

FOR TODAY...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 270844
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
444 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIFFICULT TO FIND MUCH OF A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TODAY
THEREFORE HAVE CUT BACK ON PCPN CONSIDERABLY. AFTER CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXITS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING EXPECT A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY. HIRESWRF SHOWS ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM
SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FA WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MHWK VLY
AND ADRNDKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VCNTY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL THE FA IS IMPACTED BY A SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CONDS IN THE TAFS
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z WITH THE CONDS DETERIORATING FIRST AT KPOU AND LATER
AT ALB...KPSF AND KGFL.

FOR TODAY...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 270844
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
444 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIFFICULT TO FIND MUCH OF A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TODAY
THEREFORE HAVE CUT BACK ON PCPN CONSIDERABLY. AFTER CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXITS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING EXPECT A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY. HIRESWRF SHOWS ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM
SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FA WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MHWK VLY
AND ADRNDKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VCNTY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL THE FA IS IMPACTED BY A SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CONDS IN THE TAFS
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z WITH THE CONDS DETERIORATING FIRST AT KPOU AND LATER
AT ALB...KPSF AND KGFL.

FOR TODAY...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 270737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
337 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIFFICULT TO FIND MUCH OF A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TODAY
THEREFORE HAVE CUT BACK ON PCPN CONSIDERABLY. AFTER CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXITS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING EXPECT A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY. HIRESWRF SHOWS ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM
SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FA WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MHWK VLY
AND ADRNDKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VCNTY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL THE FA IS IMPACTED BY A SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CONDS IN THE TAFS
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z WITH THE CONDS DETERIORATING FIRST AT KPOU AND LATER
AT ALB...KPSF AND KGFL.

FOR TODAY...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 270716
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
316 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE MARITIMES
AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...

*** FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY ***

CLOUDS PUSHING INTO W NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT
OF EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WEAKENED AS
THEY REACHED BERKSHIRES...AND BULK OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS TO OUR N THROUGH SUNRISE.

MEANWHILE STORMS OVER ONTARIO WILL TRACK NE THIS MORNING AS
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN NY PER HIGH-RES
MODELS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE WILL YIELD DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND WILL RESULT IN
BAND OF SHOWER/STORMS CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
BACK EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH CT VALLEY BY MID MORNING
AND E MA COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS THEN MODERATE AT BEST IN HOW THINGS EVOLVE. CONCERN
IS WHETHER WE CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE TO
PRODUCE A ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. ON LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING...BUT WOULD ALSO MITIGATE ORGANIZED STORM THREAT.
HOWEVER WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEW
POINTS NEAR 70/ WE THINK AT LEAST A FEW STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY MORE FAVORABLE WELL
TO OUR S AND W. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SCATTERED STORMS.

ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FEATURE MODERATE CAPE AND DECENT 0-3KM SHEAR
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOULD STORMS BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...MAIN
THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO AS WELL IN W NEW ENGLAND WHERE FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
SHOW PLENTY OF TURNING AT LOWER LEVELS. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE...LEANED ON
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN 70S TO AROUND 80. CERTAINLY
COULD REACH MID 80S SHOULD ENOUGH SUN BREAK OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
*** LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT ***
*** FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN MON ***

CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND
PERHAPS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE AT BEST IN HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

ONCE ANY STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ATTENTION TURNS TO
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. HIGHER-RES
MODELS INCLUDING 00Z NAM ARE MORE INSISTENT THAT ITS REMNANTS WILL
TRACK NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROBABLY NEAR S
COAST IF NOT A BIT FARTHER INLAND. 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING
MORE WITH THIS FEATURE...PROBABLY DUE TO ITS COARSER RESOLUTION...
BUT ALSO HINTS AT SOME SORT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF REGION TONIGHT.

OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT IS QUESTIONABLE AS WE REMAIN
UNSTABLE BUT 0-3KM SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES DROP OFF A BIT. CERTAINLY
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. FLASH FLOOD THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME...NOR DO WE HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN GREATEST THREAT AREA.

UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TO OUR W MON AS SURFACE LOW LIKELY PASSES JUST
TO OUR W. THIS SHOULD FOCUS MOST OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR W AND N
WHERE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING RESIDES. WE MAY EVEN END UP WITH
A DRY SLOT ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BUT PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS THERE. ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE QUESTIONS AS TO
HOW MUCH CLEARING WE ACTUALLY SEE AND IF THAT GENERATES ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MON AFTERNOON. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ENVIRONMENT WOULD FEATURE DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS.

DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY...USED BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE EFFECT OF THIS PATTERN WILL BE
TO BRING SIMILAR WEATHER EACH DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CORE OF THE EASTERN NO-AM TROUGH
EJECTING NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAVE
ROOM FOR THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO SHIFT WEST BY SATURDAY.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA...ALL
THE WHILE SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THEN OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND BECOME LIGHT. THE
AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL MOVE OFF. EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AT NIGHT.  SUFFICIENT AIRMASS
DRYING IS INDICATED TO SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MARITIMES AND
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND IS UNDER
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT ZONE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER NY/ONTARIO
WITH DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THE UPPER FEATURES
SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OR WEST...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PART OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT DRY
WEATHER IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO.

SATURDAY... AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH...EXPECT THE OFFSHORE
FRONT TO SHIFT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THIS SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

ACTIVITY OVER ONTARIO AND W NY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF
REGION THIS MORNING. CIGS REMAIN VFR WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT VSBYS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR. BACK EDGE MOVES OUT OF CT VALLEY BY 15Z AND
E MA COAST AROUND 18Z.

VFR CIGS AOA 050 REMAIN IN ITS WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN W NEW
ENGLAND WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR.

IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...FIRST ALONG S
COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AROUND SUNSET BEFORE SPREADING
INLAND. ALSO EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z MON AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS SHIFTS N AND W OF REGION.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PREVAILING SW FLOW. SHOWERS/STORMS
MOST LIKELY 15Z-18Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS MOST LIKELY
13Z-15Z WITH SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE VFR OR TRENDING TO VFR.  WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND DIMINISH.

TUESDAY...VFR BUT WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY SRN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MASS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MON.

SCA REMAINS POSTED TODAY FOR ALL WATERS DUE TO INCREASING SW FLOW
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. THIS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE DURING
AFTERNOON.

SW WINDS DROP OFF A BIT TONIGHT AND MON BUT SEAS CONTINUE TO
BUILD ON OUTER WATERS TO 6 OR 7 FT. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...BEFORE CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE MON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT... COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE EVENING WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS SHIFT TO WEST.  SEAS 5-7 FEET IN
THE EVENING SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS.  SEAS AT 5 FEET MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER
WATERS FOR PART OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>234-236-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270716
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
316 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE MARITIMES
AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...

*** FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY ***

CLOUDS PUSHING INTO W NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT
OF EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WEAKENED AS
THEY REACHED BERKSHIRES...AND BULK OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS TO OUR N THROUGH SUNRISE.

MEANWHILE STORMS OVER ONTARIO WILL TRACK NE THIS MORNING AS
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN NY PER HIGH-RES
MODELS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE WILL YIELD DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND WILL RESULT IN
BAND OF SHOWER/STORMS CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
BACK EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH CT VALLEY BY MID MORNING
AND E MA COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS THEN MODERATE AT BEST IN HOW THINGS EVOLVE. CONCERN
IS WHETHER WE CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE TO
PRODUCE A ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. ON LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING...BUT WOULD ALSO MITIGATE ORGANIZED STORM THREAT.
HOWEVER WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEW
POINTS NEAR 70/ WE THINK AT LEAST A FEW STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY MORE FAVORABLE WELL
TO OUR S AND W. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SCATTERED STORMS.

ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FEATURE MODERATE CAPE AND DECENT 0-3KM SHEAR
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOULD STORMS BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...MAIN
THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO AS WELL IN W NEW ENGLAND WHERE FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
SHOW PLENTY OF TURNING AT LOWER LEVELS. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE...LEANED ON
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH GIVES HIGHS IN 70S TO AROUND 80. CERTAINLY
COULD REACH MID 80S SHOULD ENOUGH SUN BREAK OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
*** LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT ***
*** FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN MON ***

CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND
PERHAPS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE AT BEST IN HOW THINGS EVOLVE.

ONCE ANY STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ATTENTION TURNS TO
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM ACROSS OHIO VALLEY. HIGHER-RES
MODELS INCLUDING 00Z NAM ARE MORE INSISTENT THAT ITS REMNANTS WILL
TRACK NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...PROBABLY NEAR S
COAST IF NOT A BIT FARTHER INLAND. 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING
MORE WITH THIS FEATURE...PROBABLY DUE TO ITS COARSER RESOLUTION...
BUT ALSO HINTS AT SOME SORT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF REGION TONIGHT.

OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT IS QUESTIONABLE AS WE REMAIN
UNSTABLE BUT 0-3KM SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES DROP OFF A BIT. CERTAINLY
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. FLASH FLOOD THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME...NOR DO WE HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN GREATEST THREAT AREA.

UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TO OUR W MON AS SURFACE LOW LIKELY PASSES JUST
TO OUR W. THIS SHOULD FOCUS MOST OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR W AND N
WHERE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING RESIDES. WE MAY EVEN END UP WITH
A DRY SLOT ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BUT PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS THERE. ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE QUESTIONS AS TO
HOW MUCH CLEARING WE ACTUALLY SEE AND IF THAT GENERATES ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MON AFTERNOON. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ENVIRONMENT WOULD FEATURE DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG 0-3KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS.

DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY...USED BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE EFFECT OF THIS PATTERN WILL BE
TO BRING SIMILAR WEATHER EACH DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CORE OF THE EASTERN NO-AM TROUGH
EJECTING NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAVE
ROOM FOR THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO SHIFT WEST BY SATURDAY.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA...ALL
THE WHILE SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THEN OFFSHORE. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND BECOME LIGHT. THE
AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL MOVE OFF. EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AT NIGHT.  SUFFICIENT AIRMASS
DRYING IS INDICATED TO SUPPORT A CLEARING TREND OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MARITIMES AND
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY UNDER THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND IS UNDER
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT ZONE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER NY/ONTARIO
WITH DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IF THE UPPER FEATURES
SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OR WEST...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PART OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT DRY
WEATHER IS THE LIKELY SCENARIO.

SATURDAY... AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH...EXPECT THE OFFSHORE
FRONT TO SHIFT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST.  THIS SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

ACTIVITY OVER ONTARIO AND W NY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF
REGION THIS MORNING. CIGS REMAIN VFR WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT VSBYS
SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR. BACK EDGE MOVES OUT OF CT VALLEY BY 15Z AND
E MA COAST AROUND 18Z.

VFR CIGS AOA 050 REMAIN IN ITS WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN W NEW
ENGLAND WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR.

IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...FIRST ALONG S
COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AROUND SUNSET BEFORE SPREADING
INLAND. ALSO EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z MON AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS SHIFTS N AND W OF REGION.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PREVAILING SW FLOW. SHOWERS/STORMS
MOST LIKELY 15Z-18Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS MOST LIKELY
13Z-15Z WITH SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE VFR OR TRENDING TO VFR.  WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND DIMINISH.

TUESDAY...VFR BUT WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY SRN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MASS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MON.

SCA REMAINS POSTED TODAY FOR ALL WATERS DUE TO INCREASING SW FLOW
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. THIS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE DURING
AFTERNOON.

SW WINDS DROP OFF A BIT TONIGHT AND MON BUT SEAS CONTINUE TO
BUILD ON OUTER WATERS TO 6 OR 7 FT. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...BEFORE CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE MON.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT... COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE EVENING WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS SHIFT TO WEST.  SEAS 5-7 FEET IN
THE EVENING SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS.  SEAS AT 5 FEET MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER
WATERS FOR PART OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>234-236-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD




000
FXUS61 KALY 270559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIFFICULT TO FIND MUCH OF A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TODAY
THEREFORE HAVE CUT BACK ON PCPN CONSIDERABLY. AFTER CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXITS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING EXPECT A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY. HIRESWRF SHOWS ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM
SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FA WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MHWK VLY
AND ADRNDKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG
AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH. MAY TWEEK
WHEN THE ENSEMBLE PLUMES COME IN.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VCNTY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO
AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE
EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT
GRADIENTS SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A
NEGATIVE TILTED AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL
BE THE SET UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR
REGION WILL SIT IN THE FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK
WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL THE FA IS IMPACTED BY A SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CONDS IN THE TAFS
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z WITH THE CONDS DETERIORATING FIRST AT KPOU AND LATER
AT ALB...KPSF AND KGFL.

FOR TODAY...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 270559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIFFICULT TO FIND MUCH OF A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TODAY
THEREFORE HAVE CUT BACK ON PCPN CONSIDERABLY. AFTER CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXITS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING EXPECT A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY. HIRESWRF SHOWS ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM
SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FA WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MHWK VLY
AND ADRNDKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG
AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH. MAY TWEEK
WHEN THE ENSEMBLE PLUMES COME IN.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VCNTY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO
AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE
EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT
GRADIENTS SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A
NEGATIVE TILTED AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL
BE THE SET UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR
REGION WILL SIT IN THE FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK
WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL THE FA IS IMPACTED BY A SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CONDS IN THE TAFS
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z WITH THE CONDS DETERIORATING FIRST AT KPOU AND LATER
AT ALB...KPSF AND KGFL.

FOR TODAY...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 270559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIFFICULT TO FIND MUCH OF A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TODAY
THEREFORE HAVE CUT BACK ON PCPN CONSIDERABLY. AFTER CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXITS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING EXPECT A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY. HIRESWRF SHOWS ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM
SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FA WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MHWK VLY
AND ADRNDKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG
AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH. MAY TWEEK
WHEN THE ENSEMBLE PLUMES COME IN.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VCNTY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO
AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE
EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT
GRADIENTS SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A
NEGATIVE TILTED AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL
BE THE SET UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR
REGION WILL SIT IN THE FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK
WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL THE FA IS IMPACTED BY A SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CONDS IN THE TAFS
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z WITH THE CONDS DETERIORATING FIRST AT KPOU AND LATER
AT ALB...KPSF AND KGFL.

FOR TODAY...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 270559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DIFFICULT TO FIND MUCH OF A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TODAY
THEREFORE HAVE CUT BACK ON PCPN CONSIDERABLY. AFTER CURRENT AREA
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXITS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING EXPECT A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY. HIRESWRF SHOWS ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM
SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FA WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MHWK VLY
AND ADRNDKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG
AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH. MAY TWEEK
WHEN THE ENSEMBLE PLUMES COME IN.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VCNTY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO
AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE
EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT
GRADIENTS SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A
NEGATIVE TILTED AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL
BE THE SET UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR
REGION WILL SIT IN THE FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK
WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL THE FA IS IMPACTED BY A SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CONDS IN THE TAFS
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z WITH THE CONDS DETERIORATING FIRST AT KPOU AND LATER
AT ALB...KPSF AND KGFL.

FOR TODAY...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 270540
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NJ. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
APPROACH IN THE W/NW ALOFT WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST HRRR-3KM MAX REF PRODUCT SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY 07Z-
09Z NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...THEN OVER SPREADING MOST OF THE
FCST AREA BTWN 09Z-12Z. A WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWALTER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 0C TO -2C RANGE
BTWN 06Z-12Z BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/NAM...SO SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
EVOLVE INTO A QUICK STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD BY 12Z...BEFORE EXITING
THE REGION BY LUNCHTIME.

THE INCREASING CLOUDS...LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S IN THE SRN DACKS.

THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF HEATING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS HAVING LOWS
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MHWK VLY
AND ADRNDKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG
AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH. MAY TWEEK
WHEN THE ENSEMBLE PLUMES COME IN.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VCNTY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO
AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE
EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT
GRADIENTS SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A
NEGATIVE TILTED AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL
BE THE SET UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR
REGION WILL SIT IN THE FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK
WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL THE FA IS IMPACTED BY A SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CONDS IN THE TAFS
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z WITH THE CONDS DETERIORATING FIRST AT KPOU AND LATER
AT ALB...KPSF AND KGFL.

FOR TODAY...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 270540
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NJ. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
APPROACH IN THE W/NW ALOFT WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST HRRR-3KM MAX REF PRODUCT SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY 07Z-
09Z NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...THEN OVER SPREADING MOST OF THE
FCST AREA BTWN 09Z-12Z. A WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWALTER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 0C TO -2C RANGE
BTWN 06Z-12Z BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/NAM...SO SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
EVOLVE INTO A QUICK STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD BY 12Z...BEFORE EXITING
THE REGION BY LUNCHTIME.

THE INCREASING CLOUDS...LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S IN THE SRN DACKS.

THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF HEATING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS HAVING LOWS
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MHWK VLY
AND ADRNDKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG
AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH. MAY TWEEK
WHEN THE ENSEMBLE PLUMES COME IN.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VCNTY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO
AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE
EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT
GRADIENTS SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A
NEGATIVE TILTED AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL
BE THE SET UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR
REGION WILL SIT IN THE FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK
WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL THE FA IS IMPACTED BY A SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CONDS IN THE TAFS
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z WITH THE CONDS DETERIORATING FIRST AT KPOU AND LATER
AT ALB...KPSF AND KGFL.

FOR TODAY...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 270500
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY OCCLUDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ANTICIPATE WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...

CLOUDS PUSHING INTO W NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT
OF EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EVEN FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ENTERING
BERKSHIRES WHICH HIGH-RES MODELS WEAKEN AS IT HEADS E...WHILE BULK
OF SHOWERS PASS TO OUR N. MEANWHILE ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON
CONVECTION OVER ONTARIO WHICH MODELS BRING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...

ALL MODELS INDICATE A JET MAX OF 80 KT AT 300 MB PASSING OVER NJ
WHICH PLACES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT... A
POSITION FAVORABLE FOR RISING MOTION. IN ADDITION...AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL BE PRESENT WITH 500-700 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND
7C/KM. THUS...WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING...THE BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE BERKSHIRES AROUND
DAYBREAK SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MA...PERHAPS EXITING THE REGION AROUND
NOON OR 1 PM. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING DURING
THE MORNING...TO 30-40 KT AT 5000 FT...AND THIS MEANS THAT ANY
REMAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST MA.

AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF MESOSCALE FEATURES.
FOR EXAMPLE...IT DOES DRY OUT IN THE MID LEVELS AND K INDICES
CORRESPONDINGLY DROP TO NEAR 20 OR LESS. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT
THERE COULD BE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FORMING HOWEVER AND IT COULD
MAKE THINGS MORE UNSTABLE. THE GFS SHOWED TOTAL TOTALS INDICES OF
50 TO 55 LURKING CLOSE BY IN SOUTHEAST NY AND THIS UNSTABLE AXIS
COULD MOVE INTO CT AND WESTERN MA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HODOGRAPH
PROFILES DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...SO
ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY BE ONLY SCATTERED ABOUT IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
BY FAR...THE MOST SEVERE WEATHER ACTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE WELL
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT ACTIVITY WILL TAKE
AWAY FROM ENERGY IN OUR REGION OR WHETHER IT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE
IN OUR DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S BUT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS OF SUN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SECOND WAVE OF ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED. FOCUS IS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE
OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL THERMAL/MOIST AXES COLLOCATED WITH AN ATTENDANT
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. FALLING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION AS NEARLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO
W NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ACTIVITY OUT OF THE
OH-RIVER VALLEY LIKELY AS A MCS AS IT ROUNDS THE UPPER-LOW...HOW IT
WILL TREND WITH 0-6 KM MEAN WIND AND CORFIDI VECTOR FLOW. TRENDS
BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MORNING WITH THE INTRUSION OF MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL DRY AIR.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND CENTERED AROUND MIDNIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE
70S. PWATS INCREASE TO +2-INCHES ACROSS S/SE COASTLINES. ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES BECOME SATURATED MOIST-ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE ON UP
TO H3 FOR A SHORT-PERIOD OF TIME. AND FINALLY...THE MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ON THE NOSE OF A H925/85 LOW-LEVEL-JET SWEEPING
ROUGHLY S OF LONG-ISLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. NEVERTHELESS...THE PROXIMITY
TO AREAS WHICH ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING /I.E. NEW BEDFORD
AND FALL RIVER/ AS THEY ARE LOW-LYING WARRANTS THE CONCERN MENTIONED
ABOVE.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE SECOND WAVE...AGAIN...WILL NEED TO
WATCH ACTIVITY OUT OF THE OH-RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...CONCLUSION OF
DAYTIME HEATING LENDS TO A CAP JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. BUT AT ONSET
INSTABILITY IS IMPRESSIVE UP TO 2K J/KG PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WEAKENING
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SATURATES. DECENT AVERAGE SW-NE SHEAR
WITH SOME SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN 0-1 KM...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN
ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INITIALLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WITH THE CAP...FEEL ANY
THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE DIMINISHED.

MONDAY...

NEARLY STACKED LOW AND MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AS
THE MID-LEVEL DRY PUNCH AHEAD SWEEPS NE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION.
MOST NOTABLY...TROWALING PROCEEDS REARWARD OF THE LOW /NW-QUAD/
CONVERGING WITH THE COLD-CONVEYER-BELT LENDING TO A REGION OF LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO THE W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW ENGLAND.

WITH OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY AND DYNAMICS SHIFTING N/E FOLLOWED BY A MID-
LEVEL DRY-PUNCH...S/E PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BECOME DRY AND
QUIET. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. SOME LOW-CLOUDS AND FOG ISSUES
MAY LINGER FROM OVERNIGHT.

AS TO THE N/W NEW ENGLAND...CONSIDERING THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE TROWAL...INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 2K J/KG...DECENT AVERAGE SW-NE SHEAR...AND PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WITH THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL /LOWER FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS/...AND
DAMAGING WINDS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER UPSTATE-
NY INTO N NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE IS A THREAT FOR THE W-SLOPES OF
HIGHER TERRAIN IN W MA AND SW NH. 26.12Z NAM HINTS AT SOME ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE CT-VALLEY ON UP INTO SW NH. QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT...WILL
HOLD WITH LIKELY POPS AS SUCH.

MONDAY NIGHT...

DIURNAL HEATING CONCLUDES AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. EXPECT
ACTIVITY WITHIN THE TROWAL STRUCTURE REARWARD OF THE LOW TO DIMINISH
RESULTING IN A MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER ALONG THE W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN INITIALLY IN THE PERIOD.
BUT WITH HEIGHTS RISING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

SHORTWAVE FROM MONDAY SLOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AS IT MERGES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEAST CANADA. MEANWHILE AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND
STALLS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. THE STALLING IS CAUSED BY BLOCKING
IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. SO FLOW
CONTINUES TO BE MERIDIONAL RATHER THAN ZONAL OVER THE UNITED STATES.
THIS IS ALSO HINTED AT BY THE PNA WHICH HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE BLOCKING THAN THE NAO OF LATE.

AM ALSO NOTICING SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEAST CANADA. THE ECMWF WANTS TO CLOSE OFF A LOW IN
THE EASTERN CENTRAL US WHILE THE GFS HAS SMALLER PACKETS OF ENERGY.
THESE LEAD TO THE DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION. FEEL A MODEL BLEND
IS THE BEST TO HANDLE THE LATER PERIOD.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE PINWHEELS AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPING
TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD KEEPING SURFACE FLOW MOSTLY FROM THE
WEST. THIS ALLOWS FOR DRYING OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO
THE FRONT...NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...CAN/T RULE OUT SEEING MORE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE FLOW BEING STALLED...CAN/T RULE
OUT PERIODS OF MORNING AND EVENING FOG ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS GO BELOW 10KTS AND DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS GO LESS THAN 5F. ENERGETIC WAVES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT CHANGING WIND DIRECTION AS THE THEY
GO THROUGH. SOME PERIODS OF NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE SEEN WHERE THE
MOISTURE CAN BE BROUGHT INTO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ALLOWING FOR SOME
CLOUDS THERE. PROFILES STILL LOOK PRETTY DRY THOUGH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA
LIFTS NORTH DURING FRIDAY...CAN EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST ALLOWING MORE RAIN ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE
ALLOWED FOR POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS ENTERING W NEW ENGLAND AT 05Z SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS IT HEADS E...WHILE OTHER SHOWERS PASS TO OUR N
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

ACTIVITY OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AFTER SUNRISE AND AFFECT MUCH OF REGION THIS MORNING. CIGS REMAIN
VFR WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR. BACK EDGE
MOVES OUT OF CT VALLEY BY 15Z AND REACHES E MA COAST AROUND 18Z.

VFR CIGS AOA 050 REMAIN IN ITS WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN W NEW
ENGLAND WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR.

IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...FIRST ALONG S
COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AROUND SUNSET BEFORE SPREADING
INLAND. ALSO EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z MON AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS SHIFTS N AND W OF REGION.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PREVAILING SW FLOW. SHOWERS/STORMS
MOST LIKELY 15Z-18Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS MOST LIKELY 13Z-
15Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING VFR AS WINDS BACK W/SW AND ACTIVITY
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CIGS/VSBYS LIFT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR WITH DRYING WEST WINDS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR WITH ANY FOG IN THE MORNING AND
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT...THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

OVERNIGHT...QUIET TO START BUT AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBY TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. S TO SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS
WILL BE BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME DURING
THE DAY. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

BREEZY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING
UP TO 7 FEET ON THE S/SE OUTER WATERS. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
NEEDED TO BE EXTENDED. WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ANTICIPATE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO A
MILE AS FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...

WINDS SHIFTING W/SW AND DECREASING. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AS
WAVES DEAMPLIFY. LIKELY WAVE HEIGHTS OVER 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
BUT STALLS OFFSHORE SO WATERS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN FROM 5 TO 6 FT
WAVES TO JUST AROUND 5 IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>234-236-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL/HR
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF/HR




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270500
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY OCCLUDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ANTICIPATE WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...

CLOUDS PUSHING INTO W NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT
OF EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EVEN FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ENTERING
BERKSHIRES WHICH HIGH-RES MODELS WEAKEN AS IT HEADS E...WHILE BULK
OF SHOWERS PASS TO OUR N. MEANWHILE ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON
CONVECTION OVER ONTARIO WHICH MODELS BRING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...

ALL MODELS INDICATE A JET MAX OF 80 KT AT 300 MB PASSING OVER NJ
WHICH PLACES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT... A
POSITION FAVORABLE FOR RISING MOTION. IN ADDITION...AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL BE PRESENT WITH 500-700 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND
7C/KM. THUS...WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING...THE BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE BERKSHIRES AROUND
DAYBREAK SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MA...PERHAPS EXITING THE REGION AROUND
NOON OR 1 PM. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING DURING
THE MORNING...TO 30-40 KT AT 5000 FT...AND THIS MEANS THAT ANY
REMAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST MA.

AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF MESOSCALE FEATURES.
FOR EXAMPLE...IT DOES DRY OUT IN THE MID LEVELS AND K INDICES
CORRESPONDINGLY DROP TO NEAR 20 OR LESS. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT
THERE COULD BE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FORMING HOWEVER AND IT COULD
MAKE THINGS MORE UNSTABLE. THE GFS SHOWED TOTAL TOTALS INDICES OF
50 TO 55 LURKING CLOSE BY IN SOUTHEAST NY AND THIS UNSTABLE AXIS
COULD MOVE INTO CT AND WESTERN MA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HODOGRAPH
PROFILES DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...SO
ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY BE ONLY SCATTERED ABOUT IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
BY FAR...THE MOST SEVERE WEATHER ACTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE WELL
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT ACTIVITY WILL TAKE
AWAY FROM ENERGY IN OUR REGION OR WHETHER IT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE
IN OUR DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S BUT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS OF SUN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SECOND WAVE OF ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED. FOCUS IS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE
OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL THERMAL/MOIST AXES COLLOCATED WITH AN ATTENDANT
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. FALLING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION AS NEARLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO
W NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ACTIVITY OUT OF THE
OH-RIVER VALLEY LIKELY AS A MCS AS IT ROUNDS THE UPPER-LOW...HOW IT
WILL TREND WITH 0-6 KM MEAN WIND AND CORFIDI VECTOR FLOW. TRENDS
BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MORNING WITH THE INTRUSION OF MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL DRY AIR.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND CENTERED AROUND MIDNIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE
70S. PWATS INCREASE TO +2-INCHES ACROSS S/SE COASTLINES. ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES BECOME SATURATED MOIST-ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE ON UP
TO H3 FOR A SHORT-PERIOD OF TIME. AND FINALLY...THE MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ON THE NOSE OF A H925/85 LOW-LEVEL-JET SWEEPING
ROUGHLY S OF LONG-ISLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. NEVERTHELESS...THE PROXIMITY
TO AREAS WHICH ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING /I.E. NEW BEDFORD
AND FALL RIVER/ AS THEY ARE LOW-LYING WARRANTS THE CONCERN MENTIONED
ABOVE.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE SECOND WAVE...AGAIN...WILL NEED TO
WATCH ACTIVITY OUT OF THE OH-RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...CONCLUSION OF
DAYTIME HEATING LENDS TO A CAP JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. BUT AT ONSET
INSTABILITY IS IMPRESSIVE UP TO 2K J/KG PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WEAKENING
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SATURATES. DECENT AVERAGE SW-NE SHEAR
WITH SOME SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN 0-1 KM...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN
ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INITIALLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WITH THE CAP...FEEL ANY
THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE DIMINISHED.

MONDAY...

NEARLY STACKED LOW AND MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AS
THE MID-LEVEL DRY PUNCH AHEAD SWEEPS NE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION.
MOST NOTABLY...TROWALING PROCEEDS REARWARD OF THE LOW /NW-QUAD/
CONVERGING WITH THE COLD-CONVEYER-BELT LENDING TO A REGION OF LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO THE W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW ENGLAND.

WITH OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY AND DYNAMICS SHIFTING N/E FOLLOWED BY A MID-
LEVEL DRY-PUNCH...S/E PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BECOME DRY AND
QUIET. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. SOME LOW-CLOUDS AND FOG ISSUES
MAY LINGER FROM OVERNIGHT.

AS TO THE N/W NEW ENGLAND...CONSIDERING THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE TROWAL...INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 2K J/KG...DECENT AVERAGE SW-NE SHEAR...AND PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WITH THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL /LOWER FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS/...AND
DAMAGING WINDS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER UPSTATE-
NY INTO N NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE IS A THREAT FOR THE W-SLOPES OF
HIGHER TERRAIN IN W MA AND SW NH. 26.12Z NAM HINTS AT SOME ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE CT-VALLEY ON UP INTO SW NH. QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT...WILL
HOLD WITH LIKELY POPS AS SUCH.

MONDAY NIGHT...

DIURNAL HEATING CONCLUDES AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. EXPECT
ACTIVITY WITHIN THE TROWAL STRUCTURE REARWARD OF THE LOW TO DIMINISH
RESULTING IN A MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER ALONG THE W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN INITIALLY IN THE PERIOD.
BUT WITH HEIGHTS RISING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

SHORTWAVE FROM MONDAY SLOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AS IT MERGES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEAST CANADA. MEANWHILE AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND
STALLS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. THE STALLING IS CAUSED BY BLOCKING
IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. SO FLOW
CONTINUES TO BE MERIDIONAL RATHER THAN ZONAL OVER THE UNITED STATES.
THIS IS ALSO HINTED AT BY THE PNA WHICH HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE BLOCKING THAN THE NAO OF LATE.

AM ALSO NOTICING SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEAST CANADA. THE ECMWF WANTS TO CLOSE OFF A LOW IN
THE EASTERN CENTRAL US WHILE THE GFS HAS SMALLER PACKETS OF ENERGY.
THESE LEAD TO THE DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION. FEEL A MODEL BLEND
IS THE BEST TO HANDLE THE LATER PERIOD.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE PINWHEELS AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPING
TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD KEEPING SURFACE FLOW MOSTLY FROM THE
WEST. THIS ALLOWS FOR DRYING OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO
THE FRONT...NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...CAN/T RULE OUT SEEING MORE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE FLOW BEING STALLED...CAN/T RULE
OUT PERIODS OF MORNING AND EVENING FOG ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS GO BELOW 10KTS AND DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS GO LESS THAN 5F. ENERGETIC WAVES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT CHANGING WIND DIRECTION AS THE THEY
GO THROUGH. SOME PERIODS OF NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE SEEN WHERE THE
MOISTURE CAN BE BROUGHT INTO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ALLOWING FOR SOME
CLOUDS THERE. PROFILES STILL LOOK PRETTY DRY THOUGH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA
LIFTS NORTH DURING FRIDAY...CAN EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST ALLOWING MORE RAIN ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE
ALLOWED FOR POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS ENTERING W NEW ENGLAND AT 05Z SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS IT HEADS E...WHILE OTHER SHOWERS PASS TO OUR N
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

ACTIVITY OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AFTER SUNRISE AND AFFECT MUCH OF REGION THIS MORNING. CIGS REMAIN
VFR WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR. BACK EDGE
MOVES OUT OF CT VALLEY BY 15Z AND REACHES E MA COAST AROUND 18Z.

VFR CIGS AOA 050 REMAIN IN ITS WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN W NEW
ENGLAND WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR.

IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...FIRST ALONG S
COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AROUND SUNSET BEFORE SPREADING
INLAND. ALSO EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z MON AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS SHIFTS N AND W OF REGION.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PREVAILING SW FLOW. SHOWERS/STORMS
MOST LIKELY 15Z-18Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS MOST LIKELY 13Z-
15Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING VFR AS WINDS BACK W/SW AND ACTIVITY
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CIGS/VSBYS LIFT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR WITH DRYING WEST WINDS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR WITH ANY FOG IN THE MORNING AND
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT...THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

OVERNIGHT...QUIET TO START BUT AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBY TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. S TO SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS
WILL BE BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME DURING
THE DAY. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

BREEZY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING
UP TO 7 FEET ON THE S/SE OUTER WATERS. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
NEEDED TO BE EXTENDED. WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ANTICIPATE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO A
MILE AS FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...

WINDS SHIFTING W/SW AND DECREASING. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AS
WAVES DEAMPLIFY. LIKELY WAVE HEIGHTS OVER 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
BUT STALLS OFFSHORE SO WATERS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN FROM 5 TO 6 FT
WAVES TO JUST AROUND 5 IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>234-236-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL/HR
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF/HR




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270500
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY OCCLUDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ANTICIPATE WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...

CLOUDS PUSHING INTO W NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT
OF EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EVEN FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ENTERING
BERKSHIRES WHICH HIGH-RES MODELS WEAKEN AS IT HEADS E...WHILE BULK
OF SHOWERS PASS TO OUR N. MEANWHILE ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON
CONVECTION OVER ONTARIO WHICH MODELS BRING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...

ALL MODELS INDICATE A JET MAX OF 80 KT AT 300 MB PASSING OVER NJ
WHICH PLACES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT... A
POSITION FAVORABLE FOR RISING MOTION. IN ADDITION...AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL BE PRESENT WITH 500-700 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND
7C/KM. THUS...WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING...THE BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE BERKSHIRES AROUND
DAYBREAK SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MA...PERHAPS EXITING THE REGION AROUND
NOON OR 1 PM. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING DURING
THE MORNING...TO 30-40 KT AT 5000 FT...AND THIS MEANS THAT ANY
REMAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST MA.

AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF MESOSCALE FEATURES.
FOR EXAMPLE...IT DOES DRY OUT IN THE MID LEVELS AND K INDICES
CORRESPONDINGLY DROP TO NEAR 20 OR LESS. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT
THERE COULD BE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FORMING HOWEVER AND IT COULD
MAKE THINGS MORE UNSTABLE. THE GFS SHOWED TOTAL TOTALS INDICES OF
50 TO 55 LURKING CLOSE BY IN SOUTHEAST NY AND THIS UNSTABLE AXIS
COULD MOVE INTO CT AND WESTERN MA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HODOGRAPH
PROFILES DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...SO
ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY BE ONLY SCATTERED ABOUT IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
BY FAR...THE MOST SEVERE WEATHER ACTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE WELL
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT ACTIVITY WILL TAKE
AWAY FROM ENERGY IN OUR REGION OR WHETHER IT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE
IN OUR DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S BUT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS OF SUN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SECOND WAVE OF ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED. FOCUS IS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE
OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL THERMAL/MOIST AXES COLLOCATED WITH AN ATTENDANT
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. FALLING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION AS NEARLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO
W NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ACTIVITY OUT OF THE
OH-RIVER VALLEY LIKELY AS A MCS AS IT ROUNDS THE UPPER-LOW...HOW IT
WILL TREND WITH 0-6 KM MEAN WIND AND CORFIDI VECTOR FLOW. TRENDS
BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MORNING WITH THE INTRUSION OF MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL DRY AIR.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND CENTERED AROUND MIDNIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE
70S. PWATS INCREASE TO +2-INCHES ACROSS S/SE COASTLINES. ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES BECOME SATURATED MOIST-ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE ON UP
TO H3 FOR A SHORT-PERIOD OF TIME. AND FINALLY...THE MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ON THE NOSE OF A H925/85 LOW-LEVEL-JET SWEEPING
ROUGHLY S OF LONG-ISLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. NEVERTHELESS...THE PROXIMITY
TO AREAS WHICH ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING /I.E. NEW BEDFORD
AND FALL RIVER/ AS THEY ARE LOW-LYING WARRANTS THE CONCERN MENTIONED
ABOVE.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE SECOND WAVE...AGAIN...WILL NEED TO
WATCH ACTIVITY OUT OF THE OH-RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...CONCLUSION OF
DAYTIME HEATING LENDS TO A CAP JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. BUT AT ONSET
INSTABILITY IS IMPRESSIVE UP TO 2K J/KG PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WEAKENING
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SATURATES. DECENT AVERAGE SW-NE SHEAR
WITH SOME SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN 0-1 KM...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN
ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INITIALLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WITH THE CAP...FEEL ANY
THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE DIMINISHED.

MONDAY...

NEARLY STACKED LOW AND MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AS
THE MID-LEVEL DRY PUNCH AHEAD SWEEPS NE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION.
MOST NOTABLY...TROWALING PROCEEDS REARWARD OF THE LOW /NW-QUAD/
CONVERGING WITH THE COLD-CONVEYER-BELT LENDING TO A REGION OF LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO THE W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW ENGLAND.

WITH OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY AND DYNAMICS SHIFTING N/E FOLLOWED BY A MID-
LEVEL DRY-PUNCH...S/E PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BECOME DRY AND
QUIET. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. SOME LOW-CLOUDS AND FOG ISSUES
MAY LINGER FROM OVERNIGHT.

AS TO THE N/W NEW ENGLAND...CONSIDERING THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE TROWAL...INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 2K J/KG...DECENT AVERAGE SW-NE SHEAR...AND PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WITH THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL /LOWER FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS/...AND
DAMAGING WINDS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER UPSTATE-
NY INTO N NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE IS A THREAT FOR THE W-SLOPES OF
HIGHER TERRAIN IN W MA AND SW NH. 26.12Z NAM HINTS AT SOME ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE CT-VALLEY ON UP INTO SW NH. QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT...WILL
HOLD WITH LIKELY POPS AS SUCH.

MONDAY NIGHT...

DIURNAL HEATING CONCLUDES AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. EXPECT
ACTIVITY WITHIN THE TROWAL STRUCTURE REARWARD OF THE LOW TO DIMINISH
RESULTING IN A MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER ALONG THE W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN INITIALLY IN THE PERIOD.
BUT WITH HEIGHTS RISING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

SHORTWAVE FROM MONDAY SLOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AS IT MERGES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEAST CANADA. MEANWHILE AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND
STALLS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. THE STALLING IS CAUSED BY BLOCKING
IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. SO FLOW
CONTINUES TO BE MERIDIONAL RATHER THAN ZONAL OVER THE UNITED STATES.
THIS IS ALSO HINTED AT BY THE PNA WHICH HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE BLOCKING THAN THE NAO OF LATE.

AM ALSO NOTICING SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEAST CANADA. THE ECMWF WANTS TO CLOSE OFF A LOW IN
THE EASTERN CENTRAL US WHILE THE GFS HAS SMALLER PACKETS OF ENERGY.
THESE LEAD TO THE DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION. FEEL A MODEL BLEND
IS THE BEST TO HANDLE THE LATER PERIOD.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE PINWHEELS AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPING
TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD KEEPING SURFACE FLOW MOSTLY FROM THE
WEST. THIS ALLOWS FOR DRYING OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO
THE FRONT...NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...CAN/T RULE OUT SEEING MORE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE FLOW BEING STALLED...CAN/T RULE
OUT PERIODS OF MORNING AND EVENING FOG ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS GO BELOW 10KTS AND DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS GO LESS THAN 5F. ENERGETIC WAVES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT CHANGING WIND DIRECTION AS THE THEY
GO THROUGH. SOME PERIODS OF NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE SEEN WHERE THE
MOISTURE CAN BE BROUGHT INTO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ALLOWING FOR SOME
CLOUDS THERE. PROFILES STILL LOOK PRETTY DRY THOUGH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA
LIFTS NORTH DURING FRIDAY...CAN EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST ALLOWING MORE RAIN ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE
ALLOWED FOR POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS ENTERING W NEW ENGLAND AT 05Z SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS IT HEADS E...WHILE OTHER SHOWERS PASS TO OUR N
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

ACTIVITY OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AFTER SUNRISE AND AFFECT MUCH OF REGION THIS MORNING. CIGS REMAIN
VFR WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR. BACK EDGE
MOVES OUT OF CT VALLEY BY 15Z AND REACHES E MA COAST AROUND 18Z.

VFR CIGS AOA 050 REMAIN IN ITS WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN W NEW
ENGLAND WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR.

IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...FIRST ALONG S
COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AROUND SUNSET BEFORE SPREADING
INLAND. ALSO EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z MON AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS SHIFTS N AND W OF REGION.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PREVAILING SW FLOW. SHOWERS/STORMS
MOST LIKELY 15Z-18Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS MOST LIKELY 13Z-
15Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING VFR AS WINDS BACK W/SW AND ACTIVITY
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CIGS/VSBYS LIFT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR WITH DRYING WEST WINDS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR WITH ANY FOG IN THE MORNING AND
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT...THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

OVERNIGHT...QUIET TO START BUT AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBY TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. S TO SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS
WILL BE BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME DURING
THE DAY. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

BREEZY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING
UP TO 7 FEET ON THE S/SE OUTER WATERS. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
NEEDED TO BE EXTENDED. WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ANTICIPATE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO A
MILE AS FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...

WINDS SHIFTING W/SW AND DECREASING. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AS
WAVES DEAMPLIFY. LIKELY WAVE HEIGHTS OVER 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
BUT STALLS OFFSHORE SO WATERS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN FROM 5 TO 6 FT
WAVES TO JUST AROUND 5 IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>234-236-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL/HR
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF/HR




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270500
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY OCCLUDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ANTICIPATE WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...

CLOUDS PUSHING INTO W NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT
OF EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EVEN FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ENTERING
BERKSHIRES WHICH HIGH-RES MODELS WEAKEN AS IT HEADS E...WHILE BULK
OF SHOWERS PASS TO OUR N. MEANWHILE ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON
CONVECTION OVER ONTARIO WHICH MODELS BRING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...

ALL MODELS INDICATE A JET MAX OF 80 KT AT 300 MB PASSING OVER NJ
WHICH PLACES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT... A
POSITION FAVORABLE FOR RISING MOTION. IN ADDITION...AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL BE PRESENT WITH 500-700 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND
7C/KM. THUS...WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING...THE BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE BERKSHIRES AROUND
DAYBREAK SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MA...PERHAPS EXITING THE REGION AROUND
NOON OR 1 PM. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING DURING
THE MORNING...TO 30-40 KT AT 5000 FT...AND THIS MEANS THAT ANY
REMAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST MA.

AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF MESOSCALE FEATURES.
FOR EXAMPLE...IT DOES DRY OUT IN THE MID LEVELS AND K INDICES
CORRESPONDINGLY DROP TO NEAR 20 OR LESS. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT
THERE COULD BE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FORMING HOWEVER AND IT COULD
MAKE THINGS MORE UNSTABLE. THE GFS SHOWED TOTAL TOTALS INDICES OF
50 TO 55 LURKING CLOSE BY IN SOUTHEAST NY AND THIS UNSTABLE AXIS
COULD MOVE INTO CT AND WESTERN MA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HODOGRAPH
PROFILES DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...SO
ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY BE ONLY SCATTERED ABOUT IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
BY FAR...THE MOST SEVERE WEATHER ACTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE WELL
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT ACTIVITY WILL TAKE
AWAY FROM ENERGY IN OUR REGION OR WHETHER IT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE
IN OUR DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S BUT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS OF SUN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SECOND WAVE OF ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED. FOCUS IS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE
OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL THERMAL/MOIST AXES COLLOCATED WITH AN ATTENDANT
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. FALLING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION AS NEARLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO
W NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ACTIVITY OUT OF THE
OH-RIVER VALLEY LIKELY AS A MCS AS IT ROUNDS THE UPPER-LOW...HOW IT
WILL TREND WITH 0-6 KM MEAN WIND AND CORFIDI VECTOR FLOW. TRENDS
BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MORNING WITH THE INTRUSION OF MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL DRY AIR.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND CENTERED AROUND MIDNIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE
70S. PWATS INCREASE TO +2-INCHES ACROSS S/SE COASTLINES. ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES BECOME SATURATED MOIST-ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE ON UP
TO H3 FOR A SHORT-PERIOD OF TIME. AND FINALLY...THE MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ON THE NOSE OF A H925/85 LOW-LEVEL-JET SWEEPING
ROUGHLY S OF LONG-ISLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. NEVERTHELESS...THE PROXIMITY
TO AREAS WHICH ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING /I.E. NEW BEDFORD
AND FALL RIVER/ AS THEY ARE LOW-LYING WARRANTS THE CONCERN MENTIONED
ABOVE.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE SECOND WAVE...AGAIN...WILL NEED TO
WATCH ACTIVITY OUT OF THE OH-RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...CONCLUSION OF
DAYTIME HEATING LENDS TO A CAP JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. BUT AT ONSET
INSTABILITY IS IMPRESSIVE UP TO 2K J/KG PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WEAKENING
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SATURATES. DECENT AVERAGE SW-NE SHEAR
WITH SOME SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN 0-1 KM...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN
ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INITIALLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WITH THE CAP...FEEL ANY
THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE DIMINISHED.

MONDAY...

NEARLY STACKED LOW AND MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AS
THE MID-LEVEL DRY PUNCH AHEAD SWEEPS NE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION.
MOST NOTABLY...TROWALING PROCEEDS REARWARD OF THE LOW /NW-QUAD/
CONVERGING WITH THE COLD-CONVEYER-BELT LENDING TO A REGION OF LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO THE W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW ENGLAND.

WITH OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY AND DYNAMICS SHIFTING N/E FOLLOWED BY A MID-
LEVEL DRY-PUNCH...S/E PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BECOME DRY AND
QUIET. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. SOME LOW-CLOUDS AND FOG ISSUES
MAY LINGER FROM OVERNIGHT.

AS TO THE N/W NEW ENGLAND...CONSIDERING THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE TROWAL...INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 2K J/KG...DECENT AVERAGE SW-NE SHEAR...AND PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WITH THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL /LOWER FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS/...AND
DAMAGING WINDS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER UPSTATE-
NY INTO N NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE IS A THREAT FOR THE W-SLOPES OF
HIGHER TERRAIN IN W MA AND SW NH. 26.12Z NAM HINTS AT SOME ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE CT-VALLEY ON UP INTO SW NH. QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT...WILL
HOLD WITH LIKELY POPS AS SUCH.

MONDAY NIGHT...

DIURNAL HEATING CONCLUDES AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. EXPECT
ACTIVITY WITHIN THE TROWAL STRUCTURE REARWARD OF THE LOW TO DIMINISH
RESULTING IN A MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER ALONG THE W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN INITIALLY IN THE PERIOD.
BUT WITH HEIGHTS RISING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

SHORTWAVE FROM MONDAY SLOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AS IT MERGES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEAST CANADA. MEANWHILE AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND
STALLS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. THE STALLING IS CAUSED BY BLOCKING
IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. SO FLOW
CONTINUES TO BE MERIDIONAL RATHER THAN ZONAL OVER THE UNITED STATES.
THIS IS ALSO HINTED AT BY THE PNA WHICH HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE BLOCKING THAN THE NAO OF LATE.

AM ALSO NOTICING SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEAST CANADA. THE ECMWF WANTS TO CLOSE OFF A LOW IN
THE EASTERN CENTRAL US WHILE THE GFS HAS SMALLER PACKETS OF ENERGY.
THESE LEAD TO THE DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION. FEEL A MODEL BLEND
IS THE BEST TO HANDLE THE LATER PERIOD.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE PINWHEELS AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPING
TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD KEEPING SURFACE FLOW MOSTLY FROM THE
WEST. THIS ALLOWS FOR DRYING OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO
THE FRONT...NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...CAN/T RULE OUT SEEING MORE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE FLOW BEING STALLED...CAN/T RULE
OUT PERIODS OF MORNING AND EVENING FOG ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS GO BELOW 10KTS AND DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS GO LESS THAN 5F. ENERGETIC WAVES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT CHANGING WIND DIRECTION AS THE THEY
GO THROUGH. SOME PERIODS OF NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE SEEN WHERE THE
MOISTURE CAN BE BROUGHT INTO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ALLOWING FOR SOME
CLOUDS THERE. PROFILES STILL LOOK PRETTY DRY THOUGH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA
LIFTS NORTH DURING FRIDAY...CAN EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST ALLOWING MORE RAIN ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE
ALLOWED FOR POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON.

INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS ENTERING W NEW ENGLAND AT 05Z SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS IT HEADS E...WHILE OTHER SHOWERS PASS TO OUR N
THROUGH DAYBREAK.

ACTIVITY OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AFTER SUNRISE AND AFFECT MUCH OF REGION THIS MORNING. CIGS REMAIN
VFR WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR. BACK EDGE
MOVES OUT OF CT VALLEY BY 15Z AND REACHES E MA COAST AROUND 18Z.

VFR CIGS AOA 050 REMAIN IN ITS WAKE THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN W NEW
ENGLAND WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR.

IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...FIRST ALONG S
COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AROUND SUNSET BEFORE SPREADING
INLAND. ALSO EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z MON AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS SHIFTS N AND W OF REGION.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PREVAILING SW FLOW. SHOWERS/STORMS
MOST LIKELY 15Z-18Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS MOST LIKELY 13Z-
15Z.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING VFR AS WINDS BACK W/SW AND ACTIVITY
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. SHOULD SEE CIGS/VSBYS LIFT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR WITH DRYING WEST WINDS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR WITH ANY FOG IN THE MORNING AND
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT...THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

OVERNIGHT...QUIET TO START BUT AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBY TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. S TO SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS
WILL BE BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME DURING
THE DAY. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

BREEZY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING
UP TO 7 FEET ON THE S/SE OUTER WATERS. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
NEEDED TO BE EXTENDED. WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ANTICIPATE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO A
MILE AS FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...

WINDS SHIFTING W/SW AND DECREASING. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AS
WAVES DEAMPLIFY. LIKELY WAVE HEIGHTS OVER 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
BUT STALLS OFFSHORE SO WATERS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN FROM 5 TO 6 FT
WAVES TO JUST AROUND 5 IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>234-236-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL/HR
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF/HR




000
FXUS61 KALY 270425
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1225 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
JULY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDWEEK WITH A CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NJ. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL
APPROACH IN THE W/NW ALOFT WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST HRRR-3KM MAX REF PRODUCT SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY 07Z-
09Z NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...THEN OVER SPREADING MOST OF THE
FCST AREA BTWN 09Z-12Z. A WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWALTER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 0C TO -2C RANGE
BTWN 06Z-12Z BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/NAM...SO SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
EVOLVE INTO A QUICK STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD BY 12Z...BEFORE EXITING
THE REGION BY LUNCHTIME.

THE INCREASING CLOUDS...LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S IN THE SRN DACKS.

THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF HEATING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS HAVING LOWS
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR MONDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK. WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE 70S MOST AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70
IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN THE COVERAGE OF SCT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BTWN
06Z-10Z FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. THERE COULD ALSO BE EMBEDDED
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AS SHOWERS INITIALLY...
THEN THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO A BRIEF STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH...AND WELL IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO AND THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT CIGS AND
VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN 06-12Z...AND PERSIST UNTIL 16Z-
18Z. THERE MAYBE EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE STRESSED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE BTWN 16Z-18Z TO VFR LEVELS AT ALL
THE TAF SITES...AND SOME ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
18Z/SUN.  SINCE IT IS LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE...HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 270216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1016 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
JULY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDWEEK WITH A CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1016 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NJ THIS EVENING. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL APPROACH IN THE W/NW ALOFT WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BACK OFF
THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS...AS UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW ONLY
ISOLD SHOWERS /SPRINKLES OVER W-CNTRL NY OR EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST HRRR-3KM MAX REF PRODUCT SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY 07Z-09Z NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...THEN
OVER SPREADING MOST OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 09Z-12Z. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO INCREASE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND THEREAFTER WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THE SHOWALTER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 0C TO
-2C RANGE BTWN 06Z-12Z BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/NAM...SO SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ISOLD TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A QUICK STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD BY
12Z...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY LUNCHTIME.

THE INCREASING CLOUDS...LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S IN THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S MOST
AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN THE COVERAGE OF SCT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BTWN
06Z-10Z FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. THERE COULD ALSO BE EMBEDDED
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AS SHOWERS INITIALLY...
THEN THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO A BRIEF STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH...AND WELL IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO AND THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT CIGS AND
VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN 06-12Z...AND PERSIST UNTIL 16Z-
18Z. THERE MAYBE EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE STRESSED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE BTWN 16Z-18Z TO VFR LEVELS AT ALL
THE TAF SITES...AND SOME ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
18Z/SUN.  SINCE IT IS LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE...HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 270216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1016 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
JULY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDWEEK WITH A CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1016 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NJ THIS EVENING. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL APPROACH IN THE W/NW ALOFT WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BACK OFF
THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS...AS UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW ONLY
ISOLD SHOWERS /SPRINKLES OVER W-CNTRL NY OR EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST HRRR-3KM MAX REF PRODUCT SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY 07Z-09Z NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...THEN
OVER SPREADING MOST OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 09Z-12Z. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO INCREASE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND THEREAFTER WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THE SHOWALTER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 0C TO
-2C RANGE BTWN 06Z-12Z BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/NAM...SO SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ISOLD TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A QUICK STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD BY
12Z...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY LUNCHTIME.

THE INCREASING CLOUDS...LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S IN THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S MOST
AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN THE COVERAGE OF SCT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BTWN
06Z-10Z FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. THERE COULD ALSO BE EMBEDDED
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AS SHOWERS INITIALLY...
THEN THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO A BRIEF STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH...AND WELL IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO AND THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT CIGS AND
VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN 06-12Z...AND PERSIST UNTIL 16Z-
18Z. THERE MAYBE EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE STRESSED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE BTWN 16Z-18Z TO VFR LEVELS AT ALL
THE TAF SITES...AND SOME ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
18Z/SUN.  SINCE IT IS LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE...HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 270216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1016 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
JULY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDWEEK WITH A CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1016 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NJ THIS EVENING. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL APPROACH IN THE W/NW ALOFT WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BACK OFF
THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS...AS UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW ONLY
ISOLD SHOWERS /SPRINKLES OVER W-CNTRL NY OR EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST HRRR-3KM MAX REF PRODUCT SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY 07Z-09Z NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...THEN
OVER SPREADING MOST OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 09Z-12Z. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO INCREASE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND THEREAFTER WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THE SHOWALTER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 0C TO
-2C RANGE BTWN 06Z-12Z BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/NAM...SO SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ISOLD TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A QUICK STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD BY
12Z...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY LUNCHTIME.

THE INCREASING CLOUDS...LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S IN THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S MOST
AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN THE COVERAGE OF SCT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BTWN
06Z-10Z FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. THERE COULD ALSO BE EMBEDDED
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AS SHOWERS INITIALLY...
THEN THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO A BRIEF STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH...AND WELL IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO AND THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT CIGS AND
VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN 06-12Z...AND PERSIST UNTIL 16Z-
18Z. THERE MAYBE EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE STRESSED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE BTWN 16Z-18Z TO VFR LEVELS AT ALL
THE TAF SITES...AND SOME ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
18Z/SUN.  SINCE IT IS LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE...HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 270216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1016 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
JULY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDWEEK WITH A CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1016 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NJ THIS EVENING. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL APPROACH IN THE W/NW ALOFT WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BACK OFF
THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS...AS UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW ONLY
ISOLD SHOWERS /SPRINKLES OVER W-CNTRL NY OR EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST HRRR-3KM MAX REF PRODUCT SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY 07Z-09Z NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...THEN
OVER SPREADING MOST OF THE FCST AREA BTWN 09Z-12Z. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO INCREASE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AND THEREAFTER WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THE SHOWALTER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 0C TO
-2C RANGE BTWN 06Z-12Z BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/NAM...SO SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ISOLD TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A QUICK STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD BY
12Z...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY LUNCHTIME.

THE INCREASING CLOUDS...LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP MIN
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S IN THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S MOST
AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN THE COVERAGE OF SCT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BTWN
06Z-10Z FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. THERE COULD ALSO BE EMBEDDED
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AS SHOWERS INITIALLY...
THEN THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO A BRIEF STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH...AND WELL IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO AND THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT CIGS AND
VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN 06-12Z...AND PERSIST UNTIL 16Z-
18Z. THERE MAYBE EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE STRESSED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE BTWN 16Z-18Z TO VFR LEVELS AT ALL
THE TAF SITES...AND SOME ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
18Z/SUN.  SINCE IT IS LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE...HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 270131
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
931 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY OCCLUDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ANTICIPATE WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS HEADING OFFSHORE...TAKING
CLOUDS/SPRINKLES WITH IT EARLY TONIGHT. INCREASINGLY MOIST S/SW
FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG...MAINLY NEAR S COAST. WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO FORM OFF LONG ISLAND AND S COAST...BUT PROBABLY WON/T
SEE MUCH OF THAT BEFORE DAYBREAK IF AT ALL.

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THIS
UPDATE. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF CONVECTION NOW OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...
WHICH HIGH-RES MODELS TIME INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND JUST AFTER
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...

ALL MODELS INDICATE A JET MAX OF 80 KT AT 300 MB PASSING OVER NJ
WHICH PLACES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT... A
POSITION FAVORABLE FOR RISING MOTION. IN ADDITION...AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL BE PRESENT WITH 500-700 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND
7C/KM. THUS...WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING...THE BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE BERKSHIRES AROUND
DAYBREAK SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MA...PERHAPS EXITING THE REGION AROUND
NOON OR 1 PM. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING DURING
THE MORNING...TO 30-40 KT AT 5000 FT...AND THIS MEANS THAT ANY
REMAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST MA.

AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF MESOSCALE FEATURES.
FOR EXAMPLE...IT DOES DRY OUT IN THE MID LEVELS AND K INDICES
CORRESPONDINGLY DROP TO NEAR 20 OR LESS. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT
THERE COULD BE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FORMING HOWEVER AND IT COULD
MAKE THINGS MORE UNSTABLE. THE GFS SHOWED TOTAL TOTALS INDICES OF
50 TO 55 LURKING CLOSE BY IN SOUTHEAST NY AND THIS UNSTABLE AXIS
COULD MOVE INTO CT AND WESTERN MA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HODOGRAPH
PROFILES DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...SO
ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY BE ONLY SCATTERED ABOUT IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
BY FAR...THE MOST SEVERE WEATHER ACTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE WELL
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT ACTIVITY WILL TAKE
AWAY FROM ENERGY IN OUR REGION OR WHETHER IT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE
IN OUR DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S BUT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS OF SUN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SECOND WAVE OF ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED. FOCUS IS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE
OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL THERMAL/MOIST AXES COLLOCATED WITH AN ATTENDANT
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. FALLING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION AS NEARLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO
W NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ACTIVITY OUT OF THE
OH-RIVER VALLEY LIKELY AS A MCS AS IT ROUNDS THE UPPER-LOW...HOW IT
WILL TREND WITH 0-6 KM MEAN WIND AND CORFIDI VECTOR FLOW. TRENDS
BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MORNING WITH THE INTRUSION OF MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL DRY AIR.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND CENTERED AROUND MIDNIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE
70S. PWATS INCREASE TO +2-INCHES ACROSS S/SE COASTLINES. ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES BECOME SATURATED MOIST-ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE ON UP
TO H3 FOR A SHORT-PERIOD OF TIME. AND FINALLY...THE MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ON THE NOSE OF A H925/85 LOW-LEVEL-JET SWEEPING
ROUGHLY S OF LONG-ISLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. NEVERTHELESS...THE PROXIMITY
TO AREAS WHICH ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING /I.E. NEW BEDFORD
AND FALL RIVER/ AS THEY ARE LOW-LYING WARRANTS THE CONCERN MENTIONED
ABOVE.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE SECOND WAVE...AGAIN...WILL NEED TO
WATCH ACTIVITY OUT OF THE OH-RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...CONCLUSION OF
DAYTIME HEATING LENDS TO A CAP JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. BUT AT ONSET
INSTABILITY IS IMPRESSIVE UP TO 2K J/KG PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WEAKENING
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SATURATES. DECENT AVERAGE SW-NE SHEAR
WITH SOME SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN 0-1 KM...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN
ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INITIALLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WITH THE CAP...FEEL ANY
THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE DIMINISHED.

MONDAY...

NEARLY STACKED LOW AND MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AS
THE MID-LEVEL DRY PUNCH AHEAD SWEEPS NE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION.
MOST NOTABLY...TROWALING PROCEEDS REARWARD OF THE LOW /NW-QUAD/
CONVERGING WITH THE COLD-CONVEYER-BELT LENDING TO A REGION OF LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO THE W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW ENGLAND.

WITH OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY AND DYNAMICS SHIFTING N/E FOLLOWED BY A MID-
LEVEL DRY-PUNCH...S/E PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BECOME DRY AND
QUIET. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. SOME LOW-CLOUDS AND FOG ISSUES
MAY LINGER FROM OVERNIGHT.

AS TO THE N/W NEW ENGLAND...CONSIDERING THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE TROWAL...INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 2K J/KG...DECENT AVERAGE SW-NE SHEAR...AND PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WITH THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL /LOWER FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS/...AND
DAMAGING WINDS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER UPSTATE-
NY INTO N NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE IS A THREAT FOR THE W-SLOPES OF
HIGHER TERRAIN IN W MA AND SW NH. 26.12Z NAM HINTS AT SOME ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE CT-VALLEY ON UP INTO SW NH. QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT...WILL
HOLD WITH LIKELY POPS AS SUCH.

MONDAY NIGHT...

DIURNAL HEATING CONCLUDES AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. EXPECT
ACTIVITY WITHIN THE TROWAL STRUCTURE REARWARD OF THE LOW TO DIMINISH
RESULTING IN A MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER ALONG THE W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN INITIALLY IN THE PERIOD.
BUT WITH HEIGHTS RISING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

SHORTWAVE FROM MONDAY SLOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AS IT MERGES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEAST CANADA. MEANWHILE AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND
STALLS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. THE STALLING IS CAUSED BY BLOCKING
IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. SO FLOW
CONTINUES TO BE MERIDIONAL RATHER THAN ZONAL OVER THE UNITED STATES.
THIS IS ALSO HINTED AT BY THE PNA WHICH HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE BLOCKING THAN THE NAO OF LATE.

AM ALSO NOTICING SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEAST CANADA. THE ECMWF WANTS TO CLOSE OFF A LOW IN
THE EASTERN CENTRAL US WHILE THE GFS HAS SMALLER PACKETS OF ENERGY.
THESE LEAD TO THE DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION. FEEL A MODEL BLEND
IS THE BEST TO HANDLE THE LATER PERIOD.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE PINWHEELS AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPING
TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD KEEPING SURFACE FLOW MOSTLY FROM THE
WEST. THIS ALLOWS FOR DRYING OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO
THE FRONT...NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...CAN/T RULE OUT SEEING MORE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE FLOW BEING STALLED...CAN/T RULE
OUT PERIODS OF MORNING AND EVENING FOG ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS GO BELOW 10KTS AND DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS GO LESS THAN 5F. ENERGETIC WAVES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT CHANGING WIND DIRECTION AS THE THEY
GO THROUGH. SOME PERIODS OF NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE SEEN WHERE THE
MOISTURE CAN BE BROUGHT INTO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ALLOWING FOR SOME
CLOUDS THERE. PROFILES STILL LOOK PRETTY DRY THOUGH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA
LIFTS NORTH DURING FRIDAY...CAN EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST ALLOWING MORE RAIN ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE
ALLOWED FOR POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TRENDS
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO SPECIFICS /IMPACTS AND TIMING/

VSBY IMPACTS WITH FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING PRIOR TO LOWERING
CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHRA/TSRA THAT SHALL LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO CONSERVATIVE AND HOLD MVFR FOR NOW.

MAY SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING YET OVERNIGHT
ANTICIPATE THE INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF COASTAL FOG FOR THE S/SE SHORELINE TERMINALS. A
MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT TO SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF IN MENTIONING DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN INTO MONDAY MORNING...SHRA/TSRA ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WEATHER CONCLUDING INTO THE EVENING AND
IMPROVING. WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...MIX OF MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA/TSRA ANTICIPATED AROUND
16-18Z AND LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED WITH A MIX OF MVFR-IFR
IMPACTS...THOUGH UNCERTAIN TIMING RESULTS IN LACK OF MENTION.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD SWEEP THE
TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A MIX OF MVFR-IFR IMPACTS
POSSIBLE...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE LIMITS A PREVAILING MENTION.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...

IMPROVING VFR AS WINDS BACK W/SW AND ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION. SHOULD SEE CIGS/VSBYS LIFT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR WITH DRYING WEST WINDS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR WITH ANY FOG IN THE MORNING AND
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
REGARDING TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TONIGHT...QUIET TO START BUT AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. S TO SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS
WILL BE BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME DURING
THE DAY. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

BREEZY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING
UP TO 7 FEET ON THE S/SE OUTER WATERS. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
NEEDED TO BE EXTENDED. WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ANTICIPATE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO A
MILE AS FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...

WINDS SHIFTING W/SW AND DECREASING. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AS
WAVES DEAMPLIFY. LIKELY WAVE HEIGHTS OVER 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
BUT STALLS OFFSHORE SO WATERS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN FROM 5 TO 6 FT
WAVES TO JUST AROUND 5 IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
LONG TERM...HR
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/GAF/HR
MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF/HR



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270131
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
931 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY OCCLUDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ANTICIPATE WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS HEADING OFFSHORE...TAKING
CLOUDS/SPRINKLES WITH IT EARLY TONIGHT. INCREASINGLY MOIST S/SW
FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG...MAINLY NEAR S COAST. WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW
CLOUDS TO FORM OFF LONG ISLAND AND S COAST...BUT PROBABLY WON/T
SEE MUCH OF THAT BEFORE DAYBREAK IF AT ALL.

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THIS
UPDATE. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF CONVECTION NOW OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...
WHICH HIGH-RES MODELS TIME INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND JUST AFTER
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...

ALL MODELS INDICATE A JET MAX OF 80 KT AT 300 MB PASSING OVER NJ
WHICH PLACES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT... A
POSITION FAVORABLE FOR RISING MOTION. IN ADDITION...AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL BE PRESENT WITH 500-700 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND
7C/KM. THUS...WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING...THE BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE BERKSHIRES AROUND
DAYBREAK SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MA...PERHAPS EXITING THE REGION AROUND
NOON OR 1 PM. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING DURING
THE MORNING...TO 30-40 KT AT 5000 FT...AND THIS MEANS THAT ANY
REMAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST MA.

AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF MESOSCALE FEATURES.
FOR EXAMPLE...IT DOES DRY OUT IN THE MID LEVELS AND K INDICES
CORRESPONDINGLY DROP TO NEAR 20 OR LESS. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT
THERE COULD BE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FORMING HOWEVER AND IT COULD
MAKE THINGS MORE UNSTABLE. THE GFS SHOWED TOTAL TOTALS INDICES OF
50 TO 55 LURKING CLOSE BY IN SOUTHEAST NY AND THIS UNSTABLE AXIS
COULD MOVE INTO CT AND WESTERN MA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HODOGRAPH
PROFILES DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...SO
ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY BE ONLY SCATTERED ABOUT IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
BY FAR...THE MOST SEVERE WEATHER ACTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE WELL
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT ACTIVITY WILL TAKE
AWAY FROM ENERGY IN OUR REGION OR WHETHER IT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE
IN OUR DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S BUT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS OF SUN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SECOND WAVE OF ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED. FOCUS IS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE
OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL THERMAL/MOIST AXES COLLOCATED WITH AN ATTENDANT
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. FALLING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION AS NEARLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO
W NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ACTIVITY OUT OF THE
OH-RIVER VALLEY LIKELY AS A MCS AS IT ROUNDS THE UPPER-LOW...HOW IT
WILL TREND WITH 0-6 KM MEAN WIND AND CORFIDI VECTOR FLOW. TRENDS
BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MORNING WITH THE INTRUSION OF MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL DRY AIR.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND CENTERED AROUND MIDNIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE
70S. PWATS INCREASE TO +2-INCHES ACROSS S/SE COASTLINES. ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES BECOME SATURATED MOIST-ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE ON UP
TO H3 FOR A SHORT-PERIOD OF TIME. AND FINALLY...THE MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ON THE NOSE OF A H925/85 LOW-LEVEL-JET SWEEPING
ROUGHLY S OF LONG-ISLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. NEVERTHELESS...THE PROXIMITY
TO AREAS WHICH ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING /I.E. NEW BEDFORD
AND FALL RIVER/ AS THEY ARE LOW-LYING WARRANTS THE CONCERN MENTIONED
ABOVE.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE SECOND WAVE...AGAIN...WILL NEED TO
WATCH ACTIVITY OUT OF THE OH-RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...CONCLUSION OF
DAYTIME HEATING LENDS TO A CAP JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. BUT AT ONSET
INSTABILITY IS IMPRESSIVE UP TO 2K J/KG PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WEAKENING
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SATURATES. DECENT AVERAGE SW-NE SHEAR
WITH SOME SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN 0-1 KM...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN
ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INITIALLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WITH THE CAP...FEEL ANY
THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE DIMINISHED.

MONDAY...

NEARLY STACKED LOW AND MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AS
THE MID-LEVEL DRY PUNCH AHEAD SWEEPS NE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION.
MOST NOTABLY...TROWALING PROCEEDS REARWARD OF THE LOW /NW-QUAD/
CONVERGING WITH THE COLD-CONVEYER-BELT LENDING TO A REGION OF LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO THE W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW ENGLAND.

WITH OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY AND DYNAMICS SHIFTING N/E FOLLOWED BY A MID-
LEVEL DRY-PUNCH...S/E PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BECOME DRY AND
QUIET. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. SOME LOW-CLOUDS AND FOG ISSUES
MAY LINGER FROM OVERNIGHT.

AS TO THE N/W NEW ENGLAND...CONSIDERING THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE TROWAL...INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 2K J/KG...DECENT AVERAGE SW-NE SHEAR...AND PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WITH THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL /LOWER FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS/...AND
DAMAGING WINDS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER UPSTATE-
NY INTO N NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE IS A THREAT FOR THE W-SLOPES OF
HIGHER TERRAIN IN W MA AND SW NH. 26.12Z NAM HINTS AT SOME ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE CT-VALLEY ON UP INTO SW NH. QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT...WILL
HOLD WITH LIKELY POPS AS SUCH.

MONDAY NIGHT...

DIURNAL HEATING CONCLUDES AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. EXPECT
ACTIVITY WITHIN THE TROWAL STRUCTURE REARWARD OF THE LOW TO DIMINISH
RESULTING IN A MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER ALONG THE W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN INITIALLY IN THE PERIOD.
BUT WITH HEIGHTS RISING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

SHORTWAVE FROM MONDAY SLOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AS IT MERGES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEAST CANADA. MEANWHILE AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND
STALLS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. THE STALLING IS CAUSED BY BLOCKING
IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. SO FLOW
CONTINUES TO BE MERIDIONAL RATHER THAN ZONAL OVER THE UNITED STATES.
THIS IS ALSO HINTED AT BY THE PNA WHICH HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE BLOCKING THAN THE NAO OF LATE.

AM ALSO NOTICING SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEAST CANADA. THE ECMWF WANTS TO CLOSE OFF A LOW IN
THE EASTERN CENTRAL US WHILE THE GFS HAS SMALLER PACKETS OF ENERGY.
THESE LEAD TO THE DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION. FEEL A MODEL BLEND
IS THE BEST TO HANDLE THE LATER PERIOD.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE PINWHEELS AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPING
TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD KEEPING SURFACE FLOW MOSTLY FROM THE
WEST. THIS ALLOWS FOR DRYING OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO
THE FRONT...NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...CAN/T RULE OUT SEEING MORE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE FLOW BEING STALLED...CAN/T RULE
OUT PERIODS OF MORNING AND EVENING FOG ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS GO BELOW 10KTS AND DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS GO LESS THAN 5F. ENERGETIC WAVES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT CHANGING WIND DIRECTION AS THE THEY
GO THROUGH. SOME PERIODS OF NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE SEEN WHERE THE
MOISTURE CAN BE BROUGHT INTO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ALLOWING FOR SOME
CLOUDS THERE. PROFILES STILL LOOK PRETTY DRY THOUGH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA
LIFTS NORTH DURING FRIDAY...CAN EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST ALLOWING MORE RAIN ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE
ALLOWED FOR POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TRENDS
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO SPECIFICS /IMPACTS AND TIMING/

VSBY IMPACTS WITH FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING PRIOR TO LOWERING
CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHRA/TSRA THAT SHALL LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO CONSERVATIVE AND HOLD MVFR FOR NOW.

MAY SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING YET OVERNIGHT
ANTICIPATE THE INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF COASTAL FOG FOR THE S/SE SHORELINE TERMINALS. A
MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT TO SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF IN MENTIONING DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN INTO MONDAY MORNING...SHRA/TSRA ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WEATHER CONCLUDING INTO THE EVENING AND
IMPROVING. WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...MIX OF MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA/TSRA ANTICIPATED AROUND
16-18Z AND LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED WITH A MIX OF MVFR-IFR
IMPACTS...THOUGH UNCERTAIN TIMING RESULTS IN LACK OF MENTION.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD SWEEP THE
TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A MIX OF MVFR-IFR IMPACTS
POSSIBLE...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE LIMITS A PREVAILING MENTION.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...

IMPROVING VFR AS WINDS BACK W/SW AND ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION. SHOULD SEE CIGS/VSBYS LIFT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR WITH DRYING WEST WINDS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR WITH ANY FOG IN THE MORNING AND
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
REGARDING TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TONIGHT...QUIET TO START BUT AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. S TO SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS
WILL BE BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME DURING
THE DAY. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

BREEZY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING
UP TO 7 FEET ON THE S/SE OUTER WATERS. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
NEEDED TO BE EXTENDED. WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ANTICIPATE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO A
MILE AS FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...

WINDS SHIFTING W/SW AND DECREASING. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AS
WAVES DEAMPLIFY. LIKELY WAVE HEIGHTS OVER 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
BUT STALLS OFFSHORE SO WATERS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN FROM 5 TO 6 FT
WAVES TO JUST AROUND 5 IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
LONG TERM...HR
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/GAF/HR
MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF/HR




000
FXUS61 KALY 262356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDWEEK WITH A
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT...A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND WILL END WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE THIS HOUR
AND SOME UNSETTLED WX RETURNING. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH
IN THE W/NW ALOFT WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BACK OFF THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS...AS UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW ONLY ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
OVER WRN NY AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST HRRR-3KM MAX REF PRODUCT
SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION BY 04Z-
07Z/SUN.

AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...IT SEEMS THE
FORCING IS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA. AGAIN...WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM...GOING SCATTERED IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF CHANCE...WITH THE LOW END OF LIKELY IN SOME AREAS.
THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN AREAS...AND LATE
TONIGHT IN MOST OTHER AREAS.  WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER...LOWS IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S MOST
AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN THE COVERAGE OF SCT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BTWN
06Z-10Z FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. THERE COULD ALSO BE EMBEDDED
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AS SHOWERS INITIALLY...
THEN THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO A BRIEF STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH...AND WELL IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO AND THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT CIGS AND
VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN 06-12Z...AND PERSIST UNTIL 16Z-
18Z. THERE MAYBE EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE STRESSED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE BTWN 16Z-18Z TO VFR LEVELS AT ALL
THE TAF SITES...AND SOME ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
18Z/SUN.  SINCE IT IS LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE...HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 262356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDWEEK WITH A
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT...A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND WILL END WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE THIS HOUR
AND SOME UNSETTLED WX RETURNING. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH
IN THE W/NW ALOFT WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BACK OFF THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS...AS UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW ONLY ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
OVER WRN NY AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST HRRR-3KM MAX REF PRODUCT
SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION BY 04Z-
07Z/SUN.

AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...IT SEEMS THE
FORCING IS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA. AGAIN...WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM...GOING SCATTERED IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF CHANCE...WITH THE LOW END OF LIKELY IN SOME AREAS.
THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN AREAS...AND LATE
TONIGHT IN MOST OTHER AREAS.  WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER...LOWS IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S MOST
AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN THE COVERAGE OF SCT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BTWN
06Z-10Z FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. THERE COULD ALSO BE EMBEDDED
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AS SHOWERS INITIALLY...
THEN THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO A BRIEF STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH...AND WELL IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO AND THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT CIGS AND
VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN 06-12Z...AND PERSIST UNTIL 16Z-
18Z. THERE MAYBE EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE STRESSED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE BTWN 16Z-18Z TO VFR LEVELS AT ALL
THE TAF SITES...AND SOME ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
18Z/SUN.  SINCE IT IS LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE...HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 262356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDWEEK WITH A
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT...A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND WILL END WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE THIS HOUR
AND SOME UNSETTLED WX RETURNING. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH
IN THE W/NW ALOFT WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BACK OFF THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS...AS UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW ONLY ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
OVER WRN NY AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST HRRR-3KM MAX REF PRODUCT
SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION BY 04Z-
07Z/SUN.

AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...IT SEEMS THE
FORCING IS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA. AGAIN...WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM...GOING SCATTERED IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF CHANCE...WITH THE LOW END OF LIKELY IN SOME AREAS.
THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN AREAS...AND LATE
TONIGHT IN MOST OTHER AREAS.  WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER...LOWS IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S MOST
AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN THE COVERAGE OF SCT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BTWN
06Z-10Z FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. THERE COULD ALSO BE EMBEDDED
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AS SHOWERS INITIALLY...
THEN THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO A BRIEF STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH...AND WELL IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO AND THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT CIGS AND
VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN 06-12Z...AND PERSIST UNTIL 16Z-
18Z. THERE MAYBE EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE STRESSED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE BTWN 16Z-18Z TO VFR LEVELS AT ALL
THE TAF SITES...AND SOME ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
18Z/SUN.  SINCE IT IS LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE...HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 262356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDWEEK WITH A
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT...A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND WILL END WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE THIS HOUR
AND SOME UNSETTLED WX RETURNING. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH
IN THE W/NW ALOFT WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BACK OFF THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS...AS UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW ONLY ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
OVER WRN NY AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST HRRR-3KM MAX REF PRODUCT
SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION BY 04Z-
07Z/SUN.

AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...IT SEEMS THE
FORCING IS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA. AGAIN...WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM...GOING SCATTERED IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF CHANCE...WITH THE LOW END OF LIKELY IN SOME AREAS.
THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN AREAS...AND LATE
TONIGHT IN MOST OTHER AREAS.  WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER...LOWS IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S MOST
AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT THEN THE COVERAGE OF SCT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BTWN
06Z-10Z FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. THERE COULD ALSO BE EMBEDDED
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AS SHOWERS INITIALLY...
THEN THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO A BRIEF STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH...AND WELL IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT OVER OHIO AND THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION. EXPECT CIGS AND
VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN 06-12Z...AND PERSIST UNTIL 16Z-
18Z. THERE MAYBE EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE STRESSED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE BTWN 16Z-18Z TO VFR LEVELS AT ALL
THE TAF SITES...AND SOME ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
18Z/SUN.  SINCE IT IS LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE...HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 262323
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
723 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY OCCLUDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ANTICIPATE WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

INITIAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW IS EXITING TO
THE E WITH ACCOMPANYING DRIZZLE. ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
HAS LIMITED ACTIVITY FROM REACHING THE GROUND. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
QUIET NIGHT WITH S/SW FLOW. SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED. S-FLOW WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING DEWPOINTS. T-D SPREADS ON THE ORDER OF
SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG THE S-COAST. COULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW-CLOUDS AND/OR FOG FOR SUCH REGIONS BY MORNING. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE MORNING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...EVALUATING FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR WHAT
SOLUTIONS ARE HANDLING THE CONVECTION OUT W WELL...IT APPEARS THE
WRF-ARW IS DOING THE BEST. SUBSEQUENT TRENDS PUT A LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY BY
12Z...ACROSS WORCESTER INTO E NEW ENGLAND BY 18Z. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY...

ALL MODELS INDICATE A JET MAX OF 80 KT AT 300 MB PASSING OVER NJ
WHICH PLACES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT... A
POSITION FAVORABLE FOR RISING MOTION. IN ADDITION...AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL BE PRESENT WITH 500-700 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND
7C/KM. THUS...WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING...THE BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE BERKSHIRES AROUND
DAYBREAK SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MA...PERHAPS EXITING THE REGION AROUND
NOON OR 1 PM. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING DURING
THE MORNING...TO 30-40 KT AT 5000 FT...AND THIS MEANS THAT ANY
REMAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST MA.

AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF MESOSCALE FEATURES.
FOR EXAMPLE...IT DOES DRY OUT IN THE MID LEVELS AND K INDICES
CORRESPONDINGLY DROP TO NEAR 20 OR LESS. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT
THERE COULD BE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FORMING HOWEVER AND IT COULD
MAKE THINGS MORE UNSTABLE. THE GFS SHOWED TOTAL TOTALS INDICES OF
50 TO 55 LURKING CLOSE BY IN SOUTHEAST NY AND THIS UNSTABLE AXIS
COULD MOVE INTO CT AND WESTERN MA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HODOGRAPH
PROFILES DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...SO
ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY BE ONLY SCATTERED ABOUT IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
BY FAR...THE MOST SEVERE WEATHER ACTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE WELL
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT ACTIVITY WILL TAKE
AWAY FROM ENERGY IN OUR REGION OR WHETHER IT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE
IN OUR DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S BUT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS OF SUN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SECOND WAVE OF ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED. FOCUS IS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE
OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL THERMAL/MOIST AXES COLLOCATED WITH AN ATTENDANT
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. FALLING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION AS NEARLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO
W NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ACTIVITY OUT OF THE
OH-RIVER VALLEY LIKELY AS A MCS AS IT ROUNDS THE UPPER-LOW...HOW IT
WILL TREND WITH 0-6 KM MEAN WIND AND CORFIDI VECTOR FLOW. TRENDS
BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MORNING WITH THE INTRUSION OF MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL DRY AIR.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND CENTERED AROUND MIDNIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE
70S. PWATS INCREASE TO +2-INCHES ACROSS S/SE COASTLINES. ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES BECOME SATURATED MOIST-ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE ON UP
TO H3 FOR A SHORT-PERIOD OF TIME. AND FINALLY...THE MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ON THE NOSE OF A H925/85 LOW-LEVEL-JET SWEEPING
ROUGHLY S OF LONG-ISLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. NEVERTHELESS...THE PROXIMITY
TO AREAS WHICH ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING /I.E. NEW BEDFORD
AND FALL RIVER/ AS THEY ARE LOW-LYING WARRANTS THE CONCERN MENTIONED
ABOVE.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE SECOND WAVE...AGAIN...WILL NEED TO
WATCH ACTIVITY OUT OF THE OH-RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...CONCLUSION OF
DAYTIME HEATING LENDS TO A CAP JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. BUT AT ONSET
INSTABILITY IS IMPRESSIVE UP TO 2K J/KG PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WEAKENING
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SATURATES. DECENT AVERAGE SW-NE SHEAR
WITH SOME SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN 0-1 KM...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN
ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INITIALLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WITH THE CAP...FEEL ANY
THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE DIMINISHED.

MONDAY...

NEARLY STACKED LOW AND MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AS
THE MID-LEVEL DRY PUNCH AHEAD SWEEPS NE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION.
MOST NOTABLY...TROWALING PROCEEDS REARWARD OF THE LOW /NW-QUAD/
CONVERGING WITH THE COLD-CONVEYER-BELT LENDING TO A REGION OF LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO THE W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW ENGLAND.

WITH OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY AND DYNAMICS SHIFTING N/E FOLLOWED BY A MID-
LEVEL DRY-PUNCH...S/E PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BECOME DRY AND
QUIET. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. SOME LOW-CLOUDS AND FOG ISSUES
MAY LINGER FROM OVERNIGHT.

AS TO THE N/W NEW ENGLAND...CONSIDERING THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE TROWAL...INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 2K J/KG...DECENT AVERAGE SW-NE SHEAR...AND PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WITH THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL /LOWER FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS/...AND
DAMAGING WINDS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER UPSTATE-
NY INTO N NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE IS A THREAT FOR THE W-SLOPES OF
HIGHER TERRAIN IN W MA AND SW NH. 26.12Z NAM HINTS AT SOME ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE CT-VALLEY ON UP INTO SW NH. QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT...WILL
HOLD WITH LIKELY POPS AS SUCH.

MONDAY NIGHT...

DIURNAL HEATING CONCLUDES AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. EXPECT
ACTIVITY WITHIN THE TROWAL STRUCTURE REARWARD OF THE LOW TO DIMINISH
RESULTING IN A MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER ALONG THE W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN INITIALLY IN THE PERIOD.
BUT WITH HEIGHTS RISING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

SHORTWAVE FROM MONDAY SLOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AS IT MERGES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEAST CANADA. MEANWHILE AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND
STALLS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. THE STALLING IS CAUSED BY BLOCKING
IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. SO FLOW
CONTINUES TO BE MERIDIONAL RATHER THAN ZONAL OVER THE UNITED STATES.
THIS IS ALSO HINTED AT BY THE PNA WHICH HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE BLOCKING THAN THE NAO OF LATE.

AM ALSO NOTICING SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEAST CANADA. THE ECMWF WANTS TO CLOSE OFF A LOW IN
THE EASTERN CENTRAL US WHILE THE GFS HAS SMALLER PACKETS OF ENERGY.
THESE LEAD TO THE DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION. FEEL A MODEL BLEND
IS THE BEST TO HANDLE THE LATER PERIOD.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE PINWHEELS AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPING
TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD KEEPING SURFACE FLOW MOSTLY FROM THE
WEST. THIS ALLOWS FOR DRYING OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO
THE FRONT...NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...CAN/T RULE OUT SEEING MORE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE FLOW BEING STALLED...CAN/T RULE
OUT PERIODS OF MORNING AND EVENING FOG ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS GO BELOW 10KTS AND DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS GO LESS THAN 5F. ENERGETIC WAVES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT CHANGING WIND DIRECTION AS THE THEY
GO THROUGH. SOME PERIODS OF NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE SEEN WHERE THE
MOISTURE CAN BE BROUGHT INTO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ALLOWING FOR SOME
CLOUDS THERE. PROFILES STILL LOOK PRETTY DRY THOUGH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA
LIFTS NORTH DURING FRIDAY...CAN EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST ALLOWING MORE RAIN ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE
ALLOWED FOR POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TRENDS
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO SPECIFICS /IMPACTS AND TIMING/

VSBY IMPACTS WITH FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING PRIOR TO LOWERING
CIGS ASSSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHRA/TSRA THAT SHALL LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO CONSERVATIVE AND HOLD MVFR FOR NOW.

MAY SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING YET OVERNIGHT
ANTICIPATE THE INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF COASTAL FOG FOR THE S/SE SHORELINE TERMINALS. A
MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT TO SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF IN MENTIONING DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN INTO MONDAY MORNING...SHRA/TSRA ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WEATHER CONCLUDING INTO THE EVENING AND
IMPROVING. WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...MIX OF MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA/TSRA ANTICIPATED AROUND
16-18Z AND LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED WITH A MIX OF MVFR-IFR
IMPACTS...THOUGH UNCERTAIN TIMING RESULTS IN LACK OF MENTION.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD SWEEP THE
TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A MIX OF MVFR-IFR IMPACTS
POSSIBLE...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE LIMITS A PREVAILING MENTION.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...

IMPROVING VFR AS WINDS BACK W/SW AND ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION. SHOULD SEE CIGS/VSBYS LIFT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR WITH DRYING WEST WINDS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR WITH ANY FOG IN THE MORNING AND
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
REGARDING TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TONIGHT...QUIET TO START BUT AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. S TO SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS
WILL BE BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME DURING
THE DAY. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

BREEZY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING
UP TO 7 FEET ON THE S/SE OUTER WATERS. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
NEEDED TO BE EXTENDED. WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ANTICIPATE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO A
MILE AS FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...

WINDS SHIFTING W/SW AND DECREASING. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AS
WAVES DEAMPLIFY. LIKELY WAVE HEIGHTS OVER 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
BUT STALLS OFFSHORE SO WATERS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN FROM 5 TO 6 FT
WAVES TO JUST AROUND 5 IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/GAF/99
MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF/99



000
FXUS61 KBOX 262323
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
723 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY OCCLUDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ANTICIPATE WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

INITIAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW IS EXITING TO
THE E WITH ACCOMPANYING DRIZZLE. ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
HAS LIMITED ACTIVITY FROM REACHING THE GROUND. EXPECTING A MOSTLY
QUIET NIGHT WITH S/SW FLOW. SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT OVERALL EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED. S-FLOW WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING DEWPOINTS. T-D SPREADS ON THE ORDER OF
SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG THE S-COAST. COULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW-CLOUDS AND/OR FOG FOR SUCH REGIONS BY MORNING. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE MORNING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...EVALUATING FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR WHAT
SOLUTIONS ARE HANDLING THE CONVECTION OUT W WELL...IT APPEARS THE
WRF-ARW IS DOING THE BEST. SUBSEQUENT TRENDS PUT A LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY BY
12Z...ACROSS WORCESTER INTO E NEW ENGLAND BY 18Z. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY...

ALL MODELS INDICATE A JET MAX OF 80 KT AT 300 MB PASSING OVER NJ
WHICH PLACES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT... A
POSITION FAVORABLE FOR RISING MOTION. IN ADDITION...AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL BE PRESENT WITH 500-700 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND
7C/KM. THUS...WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING...THE BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE BERKSHIRES AROUND
DAYBREAK SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MA...PERHAPS EXITING THE REGION AROUND
NOON OR 1 PM. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING DURING
THE MORNING...TO 30-40 KT AT 5000 FT...AND THIS MEANS THAT ANY
REMAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST MA.

AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF MESOSCALE FEATURES.
FOR EXAMPLE...IT DOES DRY OUT IN THE MID LEVELS AND K INDICES
CORRESPONDINGLY DROP TO NEAR 20 OR LESS. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT
THERE COULD BE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FORMING HOWEVER AND IT COULD
MAKE THINGS MORE UNSTABLE. THE GFS SHOWED TOTAL TOTALS INDICES OF
50 TO 55 LURKING CLOSE BY IN SOUTHEAST NY AND THIS UNSTABLE AXIS
COULD MOVE INTO CT AND WESTERN MA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HODOGRAPH
PROFILES DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...SO
ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY BE ONLY SCATTERED ABOUT IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
BY FAR...THE MOST SEVERE WEATHER ACTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE WELL
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT ACTIVITY WILL TAKE
AWAY FROM ENERGY IN OUR REGION OR WHETHER IT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE
IN OUR DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S BUT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS OF SUN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SECOND WAVE OF ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED. FOCUS IS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE
OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL THERMAL/MOIST AXES COLLOCATED WITH AN ATTENDANT
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. FALLING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION AS NEARLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO
W NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ACTIVITY OUT OF THE
OH-RIVER VALLEY LIKELY AS A MCS AS IT ROUNDS THE UPPER-LOW...HOW IT
WILL TREND WITH 0-6 KM MEAN WIND AND CORFIDI VECTOR FLOW. TRENDS
BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MORNING WITH THE INTRUSION OF MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL DRY AIR.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND CENTERED AROUND MIDNIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE
70S. PWATS INCREASE TO +2-INCHES ACROSS S/SE COASTLINES. ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES BECOME SATURATED MOIST-ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE ON UP
TO H3 FOR A SHORT-PERIOD OF TIME. AND FINALLY...THE MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ON THE NOSE OF A H925/85 LOW-LEVEL-JET SWEEPING
ROUGHLY S OF LONG-ISLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. NEVERTHELESS...THE PROXIMITY
TO AREAS WHICH ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING /I.E. NEW BEDFORD
AND FALL RIVER/ AS THEY ARE LOW-LYING WARRANTS THE CONCERN MENTIONED
ABOVE.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE SECOND WAVE...AGAIN...WILL NEED TO
WATCH ACTIVITY OUT OF THE OH-RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...CONCLUSION OF
DAYTIME HEATING LENDS TO A CAP JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. BUT AT ONSET
INSTABILITY IS IMPRESSIVE UP TO 2K J/KG PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WEAKENING
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SATURATES. DECENT AVERAGE SW-NE SHEAR
WITH SOME SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN 0-1 KM...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN
ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INITIALLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WITH THE CAP...FEEL ANY
THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE DIMINISHED.

MONDAY...

NEARLY STACKED LOW AND MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AS
THE MID-LEVEL DRY PUNCH AHEAD SWEEPS NE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION.
MOST NOTABLY...TROWALING PROCEEDS REARWARD OF THE LOW /NW-QUAD/
CONVERGING WITH THE COLD-CONVEYER-BELT LENDING TO A REGION OF LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO THE W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW ENGLAND.

WITH OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY AND DYNAMICS SHIFTING N/E FOLLOWED BY A MID-
LEVEL DRY-PUNCH...S/E PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BECOME DRY AND
QUIET. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. SOME LOW-CLOUDS AND FOG ISSUES
MAY LINGER FROM OVERNIGHT.

AS TO THE N/W NEW ENGLAND...CONSIDERING THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE TROWAL...INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 2K J/KG...DECENT AVERAGE SW-NE SHEAR...AND PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WITH THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL /LOWER FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS/...AND
DAMAGING WINDS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER UPSTATE-
NY INTO N NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE IS A THREAT FOR THE W-SLOPES OF
HIGHER TERRAIN IN W MA AND SW NH. 26.12Z NAM HINTS AT SOME ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE CT-VALLEY ON UP INTO SW NH. QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT...WILL
HOLD WITH LIKELY POPS AS SUCH.

MONDAY NIGHT...

DIURNAL HEATING CONCLUDES AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. EXPECT
ACTIVITY WITHIN THE TROWAL STRUCTURE REARWARD OF THE LOW TO DIMINISH
RESULTING IN A MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER ALONG THE W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN INITIALLY IN THE PERIOD.
BUT WITH HEIGHTS RISING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

SHORTWAVE FROM MONDAY SLOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AS IT MERGES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEAST CANADA. MEANWHILE AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND
STALLS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. THE STALLING IS CAUSED BY BLOCKING
IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. SO FLOW
CONTINUES TO BE MERIDIONAL RATHER THAN ZONAL OVER THE UNITED STATES.
THIS IS ALSO HINTED AT BY THE PNA WHICH HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE BLOCKING THAN THE NAO OF LATE.

AM ALSO NOTICING SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEAST CANADA. THE ECMWF WANTS TO CLOSE OFF A LOW IN
THE EASTERN CENTRAL US WHILE THE GFS HAS SMALLER PACKETS OF ENERGY.
THESE LEAD TO THE DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION. FEEL A MODEL BLEND
IS THE BEST TO HANDLE THE LATER PERIOD.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE PINWHEELS AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPING
TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD KEEPING SURFACE FLOW MOSTLY FROM THE
WEST. THIS ALLOWS FOR DRYING OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO
THE FRONT...NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...CAN/T RULE OUT SEEING MORE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE FLOW BEING STALLED...CAN/T RULE
OUT PERIODS OF MORNING AND EVENING FOG ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS GO BELOW 10KTS AND DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS GO LESS THAN 5F. ENERGETIC WAVES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT CHANGING WIND DIRECTION AS THE THEY
GO THROUGH. SOME PERIODS OF NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE SEEN WHERE THE
MOISTURE CAN BE BROUGHT INTO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ALLOWING FOR SOME
CLOUDS THERE. PROFILES STILL LOOK PRETTY DRY THOUGH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA
LIFTS NORTH DURING FRIDAY...CAN EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST ALLOWING MORE RAIN ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE
ALLOWED FOR POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TRENDS
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO SPECIFICS /IMPACTS AND TIMING/

VSBY IMPACTS WITH FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING PRIOR TO LOWERING
CIGS ASSSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHRA/TSRA THAT SHALL LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO CONSERVATIVE AND HOLD MVFR FOR NOW.

MAY SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING YET OVERNIGHT
ANTICIPATE THE INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF COASTAL FOG FOR THE S/SE SHORELINE TERMINALS. A
MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS SUBSEQUENT TO SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF IN MENTIONING DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN INTO MONDAY MORNING...SHRA/TSRA ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WEATHER CONCLUDING INTO THE EVENING AND
IMPROVING. WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...MIX OF MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

BREEZY S/SW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA/TSRA ANTICIPATED AROUND
16-18Z AND LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED WITH A MIX OF MVFR-IFR
IMPACTS...THOUGH UNCERTAIN TIMING RESULTS IN LACK OF MENTION.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD SWEEP THE
TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A MIX OF MVFR-IFR IMPACTS
POSSIBLE...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE LIMITS A PREVAILING MENTION.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...

IMPROVING VFR AS WINDS BACK W/SW AND ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION. SHOULD SEE CIGS/VSBYS LIFT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR WITH DRYING WEST WINDS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR WITH ANY FOG IN THE MORNING AND
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
REGARDING TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TONIGHT...QUIET TO START BUT AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. S TO SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS
WILL BE BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME DURING
THE DAY. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

BREEZY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING
UP TO 7 FEET ON THE S/SE OUTER WATERS. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
NEEDED TO BE EXTENDED. WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ANTICIPATE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO A
MILE AS FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...

WINDS SHIFTING W/SW AND DECREASING. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AS
WAVES DEAMPLIFY. LIKELY WAVE HEIGHTS OVER 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
BUT STALLS OFFSHORE SO WATERS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN FROM 5 TO 6 FT
WAVES TO JUST AROUND 5 IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/GAF
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/GAF/99
MARINE...SIPPRELL/GAF/99




000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDWEEK WITH A
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT...A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND WILL END WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE THIS HOUR
AND SOME UNSETTLED WX RETURNING. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH
IN THE W/NW ALOFT WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT. OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BACK OFF THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS...AS UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW ONLY ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
OVER WRN NY AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST HRRR-3KM MAX REF PRODUCT
SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION BY 04Z-
07Z/SUN.

AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...IT SEEMS THE
FORCING IS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA. AGAIN...WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM...GOING SCATTERED IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF CHANCE...WITH THE LOW END OF LIKELY IN SOME AREAS.
THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT IN WESTERN AREAS...AND LATE
TONIGHT IN MOST OTHER AREAS.  WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER...LOWS IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S MOST
AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE. WILL MENTION PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW STARTING AROUND 08Z-09Z...BUT SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OCCUR. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON
SUNDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 262038
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
438 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY OCCLUDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ANTICIPATE WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
415 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES EXITING RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS OF 415 PM.
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT WITH
A FEW PATCHES OF FOG LATE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEAST CANADA
OVERNIGHT...A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WILL MOVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
IN ADDITION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL BE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN MOVING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...
ALL MODELS INDICATE A JET MAX OF 80 KT AT 300 MB PASSING OVER NJ
WHICH PLACES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT... A
POSITION FAVORABLE FOR RISING MOTION. IN ADDITION...AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL BE PRESENT WITH 500-700 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND
7C/KM. THUS...WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING...THE BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE BERKSHIRES AROUND
DAYBREAK SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MA...PERHAPS EXITING THE REGION AROUND
NOON OR 1 PM. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING DURING
THE MORNING...TO 30-40 KT AT 5000 FT...AND THIS MEANS THAT ANY
REMAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST MA.

AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF MESOSCALE FEATURES.
FOR EXAMPLE...IT DOES DRY OUT IN THE MID LEVELS AND K INDICES
CORRESPONDINGLY DROP TO NEAR 20 OR LESS. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT
THERE COULD BE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FORMING HOWEVER AND IT COULD
MAKE THINGS MORE UNSTABLE. THE GFS SHOWED TOTAL TOTALS INDICES OF
50 TO 55 LURKING CLOSE BY IN SOUTHEAST NY AND THIS UNSTABLE AXIS
COULD MOVE INTO CT AND WESTERN MA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HODOGRAPH
PROFILES DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...SO
ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY BE ONLY SCATTERED ABOUT IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
BY FAR...THE MOST SEVERE WEATHER ACTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE WELL
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT ACTIVITY WILL TAKE
AWAY FROM ENERGY IN OUR REGION OR WHETHER IT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE
IN OUR DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S BUT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS OF SUN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SECOND WAVE OF ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED. FOCUS IS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE
OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL THERMAL/MOIST AXES COLLOCATED WITH AN ATTENDANT
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. FALLING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION AS NEARLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO
W NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ACTIVITY OUT OF THE
OH-RIVER VALLEY LIKELY AS A MCS AS IT ROUNDS THE UPPER-LOW...HOW IT
WILL TREND WITH 0-6 KM MEAN WIND AND CORFIDI VECTOR FLOW. TRENDS
BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MORNING WITH THE INTRUSION OF MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL DRY AIR.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND CENTERED AROUND MIDNIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE
70S. PWATS INCREASE TO +2-INCHES ACROSS S/SE COASTLINES. ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES BECOME SATURATED MOIST-ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE ON UP
TO H3 FOR A SHORT-PERIOD OF TIME. AND FINALLY...THE MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ON THE NOSE OF A H925/85 LOW-LEVEL-JET SWEEPING
ROUGHLY S OF LONG-ISLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. NEVERTHELESS...THE PROXIMITY
TO AREAS WHICH ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING /I.E. NEW BEDFORD
AND FALL RIVER/ AS THEY ARE LOW-LYING WARRANTS THE CONCERN MENTIONED
ABOVE.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE SECOND WAVE...AGAIN...WILL NEED TO
WATCH ACTIVITY OUT OF THE OH-RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...CONCLUSION OF
DAYTIME HEATING LENDS TO A CAP JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. BUT AT ONSET
INSTABILITY IS IMPRESSIVE UP TO 2K J/KG PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WEAKENING
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SATURATES. DECENT AVERAGE SW-NE SHEAR
WITH SOME SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN 0-1 KM...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN
ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INITIALLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WITH THE CAP...FEEL ANY
THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE DIMINISHED.

MONDAY...

NEARLY STACKED LOW AND MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AS
THE MID-LEVEL DRY PUNCH AHEAD SWEEPS NE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION.
MOST NOTABLY...TROWALING PROCEEDS REARWARD OF THE LOW /NW-QUAD/
CONVERGING WITH THE COLD-CONVEYER-BELT LENDING TO A REGION OF LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO THE W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW ENGLAND.

WITH OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY AND DYNAMICS SHIFTING N/E FOLLOWED BY A MID-
LEVEL DRY-PUNCH...S/E PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BECOME DRY AND
QUIET. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. SOME LOW-CLOUDS AND FOG ISSUES
MAY LINGER FROM OVERNIGHT.

AS TO THE N/W NEW ENGLAND...CONSIDERING THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE TROWAL...INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 2K J/KG...DECENT AVERAGE SW-NE SHEAR...AND PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WITH THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL /LOWER FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS/...AND
DAMAGING WINDS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER UPSTATE-
NY INTO N NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE IS A THREAT FOR THE W-SLOPES OF
HIGHER TERRAIN IN W MA AND SW NH. 26.12Z NAM HINTS AT SOME ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE CT-VALLEY ON UP INTO SW NH. QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT...WILL
HOLD WITH LIKELY POPS AS SUCH.

MONDAY NIGHT...

DIURNAL HEATING CONCLUDES AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. EXPECT
ACTIVITY WITHIN THE TROWAL STRUCTURE REARWARD OF THE LOW TO DIMINISH
RESULTING IN A MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER ALONG THE W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN INITIALLY IN THE PERIOD.
BUT WITH HEIGHTS RISING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

SHORTWAVE FROM MONDAY SLOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AS IT MERGES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEAST CANADA. MEANWHILE AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND
STALLS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. THE STALLING IS CAUSED BY BLOCKING
IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. SO FLOW
CONTINUES TO BE MERIDIONAL RATHER THAN ZONAL OVER THE UNITED STATES.
THIS IS ALSO HINTED AT BY THE PNA WHICH HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE BLOCKING THAN THE NAO OF LATE.

AM ALSO NOTICING SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEAST CANADA. THE ECMWF WANTS TO CLOSE OFF A LOW IN
THE EASTERN CENTRAL US WHILE THE GFS HAS SMALLER PACKETS OF ENERGY.
THESE LEAD TO THE DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION. FEEL A MODEL BLEND
IS THE BEST TO HANDLE THE LATER PERIOD.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE PINWHEELS AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPING
TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD KEEPING SURFACE FLOW MOSTLY FROM THE
WEST. THIS ALLOWS FOR DRYING OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO
THE FRONT...NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...CAN/T RULE OUT SEEING MORE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE FLOW BEING STALLED...CAN/T RULE
OUT PERIODS OF MORNING AND EVENING FOG ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS GO BELOW 10KTS AND DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS GO LESS THAN 5F. ENERGETIC WAVES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT CHANGING WIND DIRECTION AS THE THEY
GO THROUGH. SOME PERIODS OF NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE SEEN WHERE THE
MOISTURE CAN BE BROUGHT INTO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ALLOWING FOR SOME
CLOUDS THERE. PROFILES STILL LOOK PRETTY DRY THOUGH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA
LIFTS NORTH DURING FRIDAY...CAN EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST ALLOWING MORE RAIN ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE
ALLOWED FOR POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 06Z
THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON SPECIFIC
TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS.

TONIGHT...A FEW SPRINKLES IN SOUTHEAST MA THIS EVENING...
OTHERWISE DRY WITH VFR TO START. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR
TOWARD MORNING ALONG WITH A LOW PROB OF IFR CIGS WELL INLAND.
LINE OF T-STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BERKSHIRES AROUND
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH LOCAL IFR IN LINE OF T-STORMS EXITING
NORTHEAST MA BY 18Z. OTHERWISE VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY SEVERE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS SUNDAY. SW WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...THEN PICKING UP TO GUSTS TO 25 KT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU THIS EVENING THEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA/RA. STRONGEST OF STORMS
FOCUSED ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND MAINLY N/W DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. S-FLOW BREEZY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE
/MAINLY ALONG S-SE COASTAL/. WILL LIKELY SEE COASTAL FOG ISSUES AND
LOW VSBYS WITH +RA.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...

IMPROVING VFR AS WINDS BACK W/SW AND ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION. SHOULD SEE CIGS/VSBYS LIFT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR WITH DRYING WEST WINDS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR WITH ANY FOG IN THE MORNING AND
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
REGARDING TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TONIGHT...QUIET TO START BUT AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. S TO SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS
WILL BE BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME DURING
THE DAY. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

BREEZY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING
UP TO 7 FEET ON THE S/SE OUTER WATERS. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
NEEDED TO BE EXTENDED. WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ANTICIPATE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO A
MILE AS FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...

WINDS SHIFTING W/SW AND DECREASING. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AS
WAVES DEAMPLIFY. LIKELY WAVE HEIGHTS OVER 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
BUT STALLS OFFSHORE SO WATERS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN FROM 5 TO 6 FT
WAVES TO JUST AROUND 5 IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIELD/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FIELD
SHORT TERM...FIELD THRU SUN/SIPPRELL SUN NIGHT-TUE
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL/HCR
AVIATION...FIELD/SIPPRELL/HCR
MARINE...FIELD/SIPPRELL/HCR




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262038
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
438 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND EVENTUALLY OCCLUDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ANTICIPATE WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
415 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES EXITING RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS OF 415 PM.
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT WITH
A FEW PATCHES OF FOG LATE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEAST CANADA
OVERNIGHT...A SURGE OF WARMER AIR WILL MOVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
IN ADDITION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL BE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD DAYBREAK THEN MOVING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...
ALL MODELS INDICATE A JET MAX OF 80 KT AT 300 MB PASSING OVER NJ
WHICH PLACES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT... A
POSITION FAVORABLE FOR RISING MOTION. IN ADDITION...AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL BE PRESENT WITH 500-700 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND
7C/KM. THUS...WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING...THE BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE BERKSHIRES AROUND
DAYBREAK SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MA...PERHAPS EXITING THE REGION AROUND
NOON OR 1 PM. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING DURING
THE MORNING...TO 30-40 KT AT 5000 FT...AND THIS MEANS THAT ANY
REMAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST MA.

AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF MESOSCALE FEATURES.
FOR EXAMPLE...IT DOES DRY OUT IN THE MID LEVELS AND K INDICES
CORRESPONDINGLY DROP TO NEAR 20 OR LESS. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT
THERE COULD BE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FORMING HOWEVER AND IT COULD
MAKE THINGS MORE UNSTABLE. THE GFS SHOWED TOTAL TOTALS INDICES OF
50 TO 55 LURKING CLOSE BY IN SOUTHEAST NY AND THIS UNSTABLE AXIS
COULD MOVE INTO CT AND WESTERN MA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HODOGRAPH
PROFILES DO SHOW SIGNIFICANT TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...SO
ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY BE ONLY SCATTERED ABOUT IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
BY FAR...THE MOST SEVERE WEATHER ACTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE WELL
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT ACTIVITY WILL TAKE
AWAY FROM ENERGY IN OUR REGION OR WHETHER IT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE
IN OUR DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S BUT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS OF SUN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SECOND WAVE OF ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED. FOCUS IS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE
OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL THERMAL/MOIST AXES COLLOCATED WITH AN ATTENDANT
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. FALLING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION AS NEARLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO
W NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ACTIVITY OUT OF THE
OH-RIVER VALLEY LIKELY AS A MCS AS IT ROUNDS THE UPPER-LOW...HOW IT
WILL TREND WITH 0-6 KM MEAN WIND AND CORFIDI VECTOR FLOW. TRENDS
BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MORNING WITH THE INTRUSION OF MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL DRY AIR.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND CENTERED AROUND MIDNIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE
70S. PWATS INCREASE TO +2-INCHES ACROSS S/SE COASTLINES. ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES BECOME SATURATED MOIST-ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE ON UP
TO H3 FOR A SHORT-PERIOD OF TIME. AND FINALLY...THE MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ON THE NOSE OF A H925/85 LOW-LEVEL-JET SWEEPING
ROUGHLY S OF LONG-ISLAND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. NEVERTHELESS...THE PROXIMITY
TO AREAS WHICH ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING /I.E. NEW BEDFORD
AND FALL RIVER/ AS THEY ARE LOW-LYING WARRANTS THE CONCERN MENTIONED
ABOVE.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE SECOND WAVE...AGAIN...WILL NEED TO
WATCH ACTIVITY OUT OF THE OH-RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...CONCLUSION OF
DAYTIME HEATING LENDS TO A CAP JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. BUT AT ONSET
INSTABILITY IS IMPRESSIVE UP TO 2K J/KG PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WEAKENING
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE SATURATES. DECENT AVERAGE SW-NE SHEAR
WITH SOME SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN 0-1 KM...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN
ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INITIALLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WITH THE CAP...FEEL ANY
THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BE DIMINISHED.

MONDAY...

NEARLY STACKED LOW AND MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AS
THE MID-LEVEL DRY PUNCH AHEAD SWEEPS NE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION.
MOST NOTABLY...TROWALING PROCEEDS REARWARD OF THE LOW /NW-QUAD/
CONVERGING WITH THE COLD-CONVEYER-BELT LENDING TO A REGION OF LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO THE W-SLOPES OF
HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW ENGLAND.

WITH OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY AND DYNAMICS SHIFTING N/E FOLLOWED BY A MID-
LEVEL DRY-PUNCH...S/E PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BECOME DRY AND
QUIET. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. SOME LOW-CLOUDS AND FOG ISSUES
MAY LINGER FROM OVERNIGHT.

AS TO THE N/W NEW ENGLAND...CONSIDERING THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE TROWAL...INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 2K J/KG...DECENT AVERAGE SW-NE SHEAR...AND PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WITH THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL /LOWER FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS/...AND
DAMAGING WINDS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER UPSTATE-
NY INTO N NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE IS A THREAT FOR THE W-SLOPES OF
HIGHER TERRAIN IN W MA AND SW NH. 26.12Z NAM HINTS AT SOME ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE CT-VALLEY ON UP INTO SW NH. QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FALLING HEIGHTS AND PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT...WILL
HOLD WITH LIKELY POPS AS SUCH.

MONDAY NIGHT...

DIURNAL HEATING CONCLUDES AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. EXPECT
ACTIVITY WITHIN THE TROWAL STRUCTURE REARWARD OF THE LOW TO DIMINISH
RESULTING IN A MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER ALONG THE W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN INITIALLY IN THE PERIOD.
BUT WITH HEIGHTS RISING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

SHORTWAVE FROM MONDAY SLOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AS IT MERGES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEAST CANADA. MEANWHILE AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND
STALLS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. THE STALLING IS CAUSED BY BLOCKING
IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. SO FLOW
CONTINUES TO BE MERIDIONAL RATHER THAN ZONAL OVER THE UNITED STATES.
THIS IS ALSO HINTED AT BY THE PNA WHICH HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE BLOCKING THAN THE NAO OF LATE.

AM ALSO NOTICING SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN NORTHEAST CANADA. THE ECMWF WANTS TO CLOSE OFF A LOW IN
THE EASTERN CENTRAL US WHILE THE GFS HAS SMALLER PACKETS OF ENERGY.
THESE LEAD TO THE DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION. FEEL A MODEL BLEND
IS THE BEST TO HANDLE THE LATER PERIOD.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE PINWHEELS AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPING
TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A COLD FRONT
STALLS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD KEEPING SURFACE FLOW MOSTLY FROM THE
WEST. THIS ALLOWS FOR DRYING OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO
THE FRONT...NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...CAN/T RULE OUT SEEING MORE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE FLOW BEING STALLED...CAN/T RULE
OUT PERIODS OF MORNING AND EVENING FOG ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS GO BELOW 10KTS AND DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS GO LESS THAN 5F. ENERGETIC WAVES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT CHANGING WIND DIRECTION AS THE THEY
GO THROUGH. SOME PERIODS OF NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE SEEN WHERE THE
MOISTURE CAN BE BROUGHT INTO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ALLOWING FOR SOME
CLOUDS THERE. PROFILES STILL LOOK PRETTY DRY THOUGH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA
LIFTS NORTH DURING FRIDAY...CAN EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST ALLOWING MORE RAIN ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE
ALLOWED FOR POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 06Z
THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON SPECIFIC
TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS.

TONIGHT...A FEW SPRINKLES IN SOUTHEAST MA THIS EVENING...
OTHERWISE DRY WITH VFR TO START. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR
TOWARD MORNING ALONG WITH A LOW PROB OF IFR CIGS WELL INLAND.
LINE OF T-STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BERKSHIRES AROUND
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH LOCAL IFR IN LINE OF T-STORMS EXITING
NORTHEAST MA BY 18Z. OTHERWISE VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY SEVERE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS SUNDAY. SW WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING...THEN PICKING UP TO GUSTS TO 25 KT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU THIS EVENING THEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA/RA. STRONGEST OF STORMS
FOCUSED ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND MAINLY N/W DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. S-FLOW BREEZY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE
/MAINLY ALONG S-SE COASTAL/. WILL LIKELY SEE COASTAL FOG ISSUES AND
LOW VSBYS WITH +RA.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...

IMPROVING VFR AS WINDS BACK W/SW AND ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION. SHOULD SEE CIGS/VSBYS LIFT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR WITH DRYING WEST WINDS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR WITH ANY FOG IN THE MORNING AND
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO THIS
EVENING AND THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
REGARDING TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TONIGHT...QUIET TO START BUT AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. S TO SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS
WILL BE BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY
SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED T-STORMS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME DURING
THE DAY. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

BREEZY SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING
UP TO 7 FEET ON THE S/SE OUTER WATERS. SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
NEEDED TO BE EXTENDED. WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ANTICIPATE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO A
MILE AS FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...

WINDS SHIFTING W/SW AND DECREASING. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AS
WAVES DEAMPLIFY. LIKELY WAVE HEIGHTS OVER 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
BUT STALLS OFFSHORE SO WATERS WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN FROM 5 TO 6 FT
WAVES TO JUST AROUND 5 IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE WATERS
ESPECIALLY THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIELD/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FIELD
SHORT TERM...FIELD THRU SUN/SIPPRELL SUN NIGHT-TUE
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL/HCR
AVIATION...FIELD/SIPPRELL/HCR
MARINE...FIELD/SIPPRELL/HCR



000
FXUS61 KALY 262011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
411 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOWING SOME CONVECTION
INCREASING IN COVERAGE BUT STILL MAINLY SCATTERED. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT...IT SEEMS THE FORCING IS MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND A LOW
LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. AGAIN...WITH THE
SCATTERED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM...GOING SCATTERED IN
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF CHANCE...WITH THE
LOW END OF LIKELY IN SOME AREAS. THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE LATE
EVENING IN WESTERN AREAS...AND LATE TONIGHT IN MOST OTHER
AREAS....MAYBE AROUND SUNRISE IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER...LOWS
IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S MOST
AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE. WILL MENTION PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW STARTING AROUND 08Z-09Z...BUT SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OCCUR. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON
SUNDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 262011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
411 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOWING SOME CONVECTION
INCREASING IN COVERAGE BUT STILL MAINLY SCATTERED. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT...IT SEEMS THE FORCING IS MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND A LOW
LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. AGAIN...WITH THE
SCATTERED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM...GOING SCATTERED IN
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF CHANCE...WITH THE
LOW END OF LIKELY IN SOME AREAS. THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE LATE
EVENING IN WESTERN AREAS...AND LATE TONIGHT IN MOST OTHER
AREAS....MAYBE AROUND SUNRISE IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER...LOWS
IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S MOST
AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE. WILL MENTION PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW STARTING AROUND 08Z-09Z...BUT SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OCCUR. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON
SUNDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 262011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
411 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOWING SOME CONVECTION
INCREASING IN COVERAGE BUT STILL MAINLY SCATTERED. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT...IT SEEMS THE FORCING IS MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND A LOW
LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. AGAIN...WITH THE
SCATTERED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM...GOING SCATTERED IN
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF CHANCE...WITH THE
LOW END OF LIKELY IN SOME AREAS. THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE LATE
EVENING IN WESTERN AREAS...AND LATE TONIGHT IN MOST OTHER
AREAS....MAYBE AROUND SUNRISE IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER...LOWS
IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S MOST
AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE. WILL MENTION PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW STARTING AROUND 08Z-09Z...BUT SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OCCUR. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON
SUNDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 262011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
411 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOWING SOME CONVECTION
INCREASING IN COVERAGE BUT STILL MAINLY SCATTERED. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT...IT SEEMS THE FORCING IS MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND A LOW
LEVEL JET SEGMENT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. AGAIN...WITH THE
SCATTERED NATURE TO THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM...GOING SCATTERED IN
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF CHANCE...WITH THE
LOW END OF LIKELY IN SOME AREAS. THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE LATE
EVENING IN WESTERN AREAS...AND LATE TONIGHT IN MOST OTHER
AREAS....MAYBE AROUND SUNRISE IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER...LOWS
IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE BETTER FORCING IS A LITTLE
NEBULOUS...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RAIN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN
WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED A WARM SECTOR...WITH NO TRIGGER FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STILL...WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTIES IN WHERE ANY OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE REGION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THE MODE OF CONVECTION IS AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO SEE WHAT SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER CHARACTER AND COVERAGE WE MAY HAVE IN OUR REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF SUN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S MOST
AREAS TO LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE ON TUESDAY. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS SHOULD COOL AND DRY...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DICTATED BY A
LARGE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. LATEST 12Z
PROBABILISTIC MODELS SHOW LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS WE START THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILISTIC PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LATEST 12Z MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE DUE SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN
ONTARIO AS WE GO THROUGH THIS SECTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OUR
REGION ALONG WITH A STACKED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC
MOVING POLEWARD...12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A RESEMBLED OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH STEEPENED HEIGHT GRADIENTS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARS...A DEEP MERIDIONAL JET WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
AXIS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE SET UP FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR REGION WILL SIT IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENTRANCE OF A 120 TO 130 KTS JET
MAX WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...TEMPERATURES AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE AT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BEGIN TO SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. ALONG WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE MID
60S AND A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW...DAYTIME CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY
DIURNAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 80S READINGS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE. WILL MENTION PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW STARTING AROUND 08Z-09Z...BUT SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OCCUR. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON
SUNDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DROP TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AT AROUND
15 MPH..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 261751
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
151 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER
TODAY.  LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS ITS ATTENDING WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT THEN
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS EAST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
150 PM UPDATE... FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SPRINKLES FROM MID CLOUDS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS CT. THESE
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 10 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

QUIET/DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER LOW PRES EXITS
THE GREAT LAKES AND REORGANIZES OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. ITS ATTENDING
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING.
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT/MA
AND TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT GIVEN SSW WINDS
ADVECTING HIGHER DEW PT AIR INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY...

MODELS STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION AND TIMING OF WARM SECTOR SUNDAY.
00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEFS INDICATING BETTER INSTABILITY/WARM SECTOR
AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LESS
INSTABILITY OVER RI AND EASTERN MA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS AND PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS THIS REGION.  AT THIS
TIME RANGE LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A RISK OF STRONG TSTMS LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. OF COURSE THIS IS PENDING PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

AS FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BE AN ACTIVE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MODELS SUGGEST MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
/MID AND UPPER LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. QG FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS LFQ OF
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TOO EARLY
FOR MORE DETAILS GIVEN MODEL SPREAD HERE ON HANDLING WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

NEVERTHELESS NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AS DEW PTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

ONE THING CAN BE SAID ABOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK: ANY PACIFIC WEATHER
WILL BE REACHING THE ATLANTIC VIA THE SCENIC ROUTE. DEEP TROUGHS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. MEANWHILE UPPER
RIDGES REBUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE WEST ATLANTIC. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW MERGES WITH THE EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH SUNDAY AND SWINGS ITS ENERGY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
TROUGH AND MAINTAINS ITS POSITION TO OUR WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT LESS WELL
DEFINED LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AT WEEK/S
END.  THIS MEANS THAT THE UPPER FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST
WILL REMAIN S-SW TO N-NE THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE MASS FIELDS AND THERMAL FIELDS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK SIMILAR
IN OVERVIEW. SOME DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS EMERGE THURSDAY-FRIDAY. THE
SIMILARITY BUILDS CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FLOW OF THE FORECAST.
THE LONGER RANGE DIFFERENCES IN DETAIL SUPPORT USING A BLEND OF THE
FORECAST DATA.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUPPORTING 100-KNOT JET. THIS APPROACHES THE COAST
OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING INCREASED UPPER VENTING/LIFT. MEANWHILE 30-40
KNOT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS MOISTURE UP THE COAST ALONG WITH
LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL BUILD POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH PEAK VALUES IN THE LIKELY RANGE. ON MONDAY
WITH UPPER JET NOSE OVER THE REGION AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP/CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
N AND W OF I-95.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH 1.75-2 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
SHOULD LINGER NEAR 1.5 INCHES MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS
FEATURE ALSO PULLS NORTH/NORTHEAST. MODELS SHOW THIS SURFACE LOW
PULLING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
NIGHT. SO PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY... SECOND SHORTWAVE DEEPENS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. THIS WILL ALSO HOLD THE UPPER JET IN PLACE WITH ENTRANCE
REGION OVER NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT ENOUGH FACTORS IN FAVOR OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN SRN NH/EASTERN MASS WHERE THE UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE BEST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE TROUGH AND ATLANTIC RIDGE
REMAINING IN POSITION...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO LINGER EAST OF OUR
AREA WITH SHOWERS OVER THE OCEAN. ON FRIDAY AS THE BULK OF THE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH CANADA LEAVING A MUCH WEAKER UPPER FLOW
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...EXPECT THE OCEAN RIDGE TO NUDGE
WESTWARD AND SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW WEST. THIS WILL BRING THE STALLED
FRONT CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...POSSIBLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. WILL SHOW
CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY A BLEND OF GFS AND ITS MAVMOS OUTPUT.

SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN
CT...RI...AND SOUTHEAST MA. SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST MA.

TONIGHT...DRY WITH VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MARGINAL VFR/MVFR
TOWARD MORNING ALONG WITH A LOW PROB OF IFR CIGS WELL INLAND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ENTER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...
MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MODEST SW WIND TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU THIS EVENING THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.
AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY SRN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EASTERN MASS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO
THIS EVENING AND THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY REGARDING TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER NICE BOATING DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY. ONLY WRINKLE WILL BE MODEST SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH A
FEW GUSTS NEAR SHORE POSSIBLY APPROACHING 25 KT. HELD OFF ON A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE WINDS LESS THAN
25 KT.

TONIGHT...QUIET TO START BUT AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS REDUCING VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LOW RISK
OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH A LOW RISK OF GUSTS TO 25 KT. SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. TODAY DEFINITELY THE BETTER OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS AT
TIMES. THE STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BUILD SEAS WITH 5-8 FEET ON
THE EXPOSED WATERS. WARM HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO LOW
VSBYS IN AREAS OF FOG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
DURING THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN MONDAY...STARING SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST. CONTINUED 5-6 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS.  A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME OF THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FIELD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/FIELD
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/FIELD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261751
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
151 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER
TODAY.  LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS ITS ATTENDING WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT THEN
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS EAST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
150 PM UPDATE... FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SPRINKLES FROM MID CLOUDS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS CT. THESE
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 10 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

QUIET/DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER LOW PRES EXITS
THE GREAT LAKES AND REORGANIZES OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. ITS ATTENDING
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING.
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT/MA
AND TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT GIVEN SSW WINDS
ADVECTING HIGHER DEW PT AIR INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY...

MODELS STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION AND TIMING OF WARM SECTOR SUNDAY.
00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEFS INDICATING BETTER INSTABILITY/WARM SECTOR
AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LESS
INSTABILITY OVER RI AND EASTERN MA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS AND PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS THIS REGION.  AT THIS
TIME RANGE LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A RISK OF STRONG TSTMS LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. OF COURSE THIS IS PENDING PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

AS FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BE AN ACTIVE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MODELS SUGGEST MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
/MID AND UPPER LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. QG FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS LFQ OF
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TOO EARLY
FOR MORE DETAILS GIVEN MODEL SPREAD HERE ON HANDLING WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

NEVERTHELESS NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AS DEW PTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

ONE THING CAN BE SAID ABOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK: ANY PACIFIC WEATHER
WILL BE REACHING THE ATLANTIC VIA THE SCENIC ROUTE. DEEP TROUGHS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. MEANWHILE UPPER
RIDGES REBUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE WEST ATLANTIC. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW MERGES WITH THE EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH SUNDAY AND SWINGS ITS ENERGY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
TROUGH AND MAINTAINS ITS POSITION TO OUR WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT LESS WELL
DEFINED LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AT WEEK/S
END.  THIS MEANS THAT THE UPPER FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST
WILL REMAIN S-SW TO N-NE THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE MASS FIELDS AND THERMAL FIELDS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK SIMILAR
IN OVERVIEW. SOME DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS EMERGE THURSDAY-FRIDAY. THE
SIMILARITY BUILDS CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FLOW OF THE FORECAST.
THE LONGER RANGE DIFFERENCES IN DETAIL SUPPORT USING A BLEND OF THE
FORECAST DATA.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUPPORTING 100-KNOT JET. THIS APPROACHES THE COAST
OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING INCREASED UPPER VENTING/LIFT. MEANWHILE 30-40
KNOT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS MOISTURE UP THE COAST ALONG WITH
LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL BUILD POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH PEAK VALUES IN THE LIKELY RANGE. ON MONDAY
WITH UPPER JET NOSE OVER THE REGION AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP/CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
N AND W OF I-95.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH 1.75-2 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
SHOULD LINGER NEAR 1.5 INCHES MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS
FEATURE ALSO PULLS NORTH/NORTHEAST. MODELS SHOW THIS SURFACE LOW
PULLING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
NIGHT. SO PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY... SECOND SHORTWAVE DEEPENS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. THIS WILL ALSO HOLD THE UPPER JET IN PLACE WITH ENTRANCE
REGION OVER NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT ENOUGH FACTORS IN FAVOR OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN SRN NH/EASTERN MASS WHERE THE UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE BEST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE TROUGH AND ATLANTIC RIDGE
REMAINING IN POSITION...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO LINGER EAST OF OUR
AREA WITH SHOWERS OVER THE OCEAN. ON FRIDAY AS THE BULK OF THE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH CANADA LEAVING A MUCH WEAKER UPPER FLOW
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...EXPECT THE OCEAN RIDGE TO NUDGE
WESTWARD AND SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW WEST. THIS WILL BRING THE STALLED
FRONT CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...POSSIBLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. WILL SHOW
CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY A BLEND OF GFS AND ITS MAVMOS OUTPUT.

SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN
CT...RI...AND SOUTHEAST MA. SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST MA.

TONIGHT...DRY WITH VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MARGINAL VFR/MVFR
TOWARD MORNING ALONG WITH A LOW PROB OF IFR CIGS WELL INLAND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ENTER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...
MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MODEST SW WIND TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU THIS EVENING THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.
AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY SRN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EASTERN MASS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO
THIS EVENING AND THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY REGARDING TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER NICE BOATING DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY. ONLY WRINKLE WILL BE MODEST SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH A
FEW GUSTS NEAR SHORE POSSIBLY APPROACHING 25 KT. HELD OFF ON A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE WINDS LESS THAN
25 KT.

TONIGHT...QUIET TO START BUT AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS REDUCING VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LOW RISK
OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH A LOW RISK OF GUSTS TO 25 KT. SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. TODAY DEFINITELY THE BETTER OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS AT
TIMES. THE STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BUILD SEAS WITH 5-8 FEET ON
THE EXPOSED WATERS. WARM HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO LOW
VSBYS IN AREAS OF FOG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
DURING THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN MONDAY...STARING SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST. CONTINUED 5-6 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS.  A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME OF THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FIELD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/FIELD
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/FIELD



000
FXUS61 KALY 261735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME BUILDING FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND EVEN A
SPRINKLE POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT AND IN AREAS OF
TERRAIN BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED IF ANY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT TONIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS
OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WVS WRAP AROUND ITS BASE...CULMINATING WITH A
POWERFUL SHORT WV MONDAY...THAT CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE 500HPA TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MORE REMINISCENT OF OCT THAN LATE JULY.

SUNDAY MORNING A WK WMFNT WILL BE ALONG THE NY/NEW ENG BORDER TO A
WK SFC LOW IN THE ST LAWRENCE. WHILE A WK CDFNT FRONT TRAILS FM
LOW INTO E PA. AT 500HPA A SHORT WV IS OVER FCA. BTWN 15-18UTC
THESE SYSTEMS EXIT FCA ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOC -SHRA. THIS LEAVES A
WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH TD IN 60S ACROSS FCA...AND MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RECIPE FOR
AFTN CONVECTION.

DURING THE AFTN CAPES BUILD TO 1000-1800 J/KG ON GFS...1000-2500
J/KG ON NAM. 700-500HPA LAPSE RATES INCG TO 7C IN NAM...BUT ONLY
5.5 ON GFS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 25KT (NAM) TO 35KTS
(GFS).

ALL GUID SHOWS A BIAS TWRD THE SE PRTNS OF FCA FOR HIGHEST CAPES/LAPSE/SHEAR
RATES. GFS MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CAPPING BY AFTN...BUT
THE NAM SHOWS CAP ARND 650HPA...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT SUN THIS WILL
BE OVERCOME LATE IN THE DAY. SO IF THE SUN COMES OUT...THIS CAPE
WILL BE TAPPED IN SCATTERED SVR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY SE.

IS WHAT ISN`T AS PRONOUNCED AS PVS RUNS IS THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
DYNAMICS. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HV ONE SHORT WV EXITING FCA IN LATE
MRNG...AND A SECOND MVNG INTO EPA/NJ DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
BULK OF THIS ENERGY STAYING S OF FCA...OR IN S PERIPHERY OF FCA.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO BEST CHANCES FOR SVR TSTMS IS SE PRTNS OF
FCA. ELSEWHERE MARGINAL FOR SVR STORMS...BUT COULD STILL BE A
CONCERN...BUT IT WILL BE ISOLD PULSE TYPE AND NOT PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF FCA EXCPT FAR N FOR DAY 2.

OTHERWISE A WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
SOUTH. SUN NT THIS SHRT WV OVER EPA/NJ LIFTS NE INTO FCA...AS
500HPA TROF SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET MAX AND ITS ASSOC
VORT MVNG INTO E GRTLKS. IN RESPONSE SFC CYCLONE ENSUES OVER E
GRTLKS AND TRACKS NE BY MON MRNG. SUN NT -SHRA/TSMS WILL INCRG IN
COVERAGE ACROSS FCA BCMG WIDESPREAD BY MRNG. A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS DEEPENING CYCLONE.

ON MON MRNG THIS CDFNT IS FM RUT TO NY I88 CORRIDOR. N OF IT PCPN
WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ANNA FRONT RAIN/SHRA...WHILE ALONG IT AND TO
ITS S & E...WM SECTOR CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1700 J/KG WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW EMBEDDED TSTMS TO FORM AHEAD AND NR THE CDFNT. THIS CDFNT
WILL SLOWLY DRAG E THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH -SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY.

TO ITS N TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...REACHING THE 80S TO ITS S
AND E MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THE 500HPA SHORT WVS & SFC LOW WILL RACE NE INTO
QB...CARVING A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE E CONUS. THIS DRAGS THE
CDFNT TO THE COAST...AND -SHRA WILL DIM AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BRISK N WINDS.

TUESDAY MRNG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER GRT PLAINS MVS EAST. CDFNT
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...SCT -SHRA END. WITH 500HPA TROF AXIS STILL
WEST OF FCA...MUCH OF FCA WILL REMAIN IN DRY SLOT TUES AND TUES NT
AS COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO FCA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO
NORMALS WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. TUES NT WILL SEE LOWS
MID 40S TO MID 50S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB AND
TAILING TROF OVER MOST OF E CONUS. OVER TIME THE CUT OFF LIFTS NE
IN WESTERLIES OVER N CANADA....AND A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF
AND RETROGRADES SW TO MISS VLY BY END OF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BACK BUILDS TWRD E SEABOARD. WHILE THE MDLS SUITE
IS FAIRLY IN AGREEMENT...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS.

FCA REMAINS LARGELY ON EAST SIDE OF THE 500HPA TROF AS IT RETREATS
N...AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS IN THE DRY SLOT ASSOC WITH THIS
FEATURE IN THE GFS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CUT OFF CLOSER AND
FURTHER S...AND SVRL PASSING SHORT WVS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA MAINLY W AND OVER HIR TRRN.

THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE..IS AS PERIOD ENDS GFS HAS BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING INTO E COAST...ALONG WITH A COASTAL TYPE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN INCRG S FLOW...TD AND THREAT OF TSTMS SAT AFTN S TIER.

HPCS OVERNIGHT PACKAGE REFLECTS PVS ECMWF AND CURRENT GFS. IT WILL
BE A PERIOD OF PC CONDS...AND TEMPS 3-5 DEG BLO NORMAL WITH WARM
DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. ISOLD -SHRA CANT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY
OVER HIR TRRN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE A DRY COMFORTABLE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE. WILL MENTION PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW STARTING AROUND 08Z-09Z...BUT SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OCCUR. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON
SUNDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE DROP TO
MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/SNYDER/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 261735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME BUILDING FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND EVEN A
SPRINKLE POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT AND IN AREAS OF
TERRAIN BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...FEW ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED IF ANY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT TONIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS
OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WVS WRAP AROUND ITS BASE...CULMINATING WITH A
POWERFUL SHORT WV MONDAY...THAT CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE 500HPA TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MORE REMINISCENT OF OCT THAN LATE JULY.

SUNDAY MORNING A WK WMFNT WILL BE ALONG THE NY/NEW ENG BORDER TO A
WK SFC LOW IN THE ST LAWRENCE. WHILE A WK CDFNT FRONT TRAILS FM
LOW INTO E PA. AT 500HPA A SHORT WV IS OVER FCA. BTWN 15-18UTC
THESE SYSTEMS EXIT FCA ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOC -SHRA. THIS LEAVES A
WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH TD IN 60S ACROSS FCA...AND MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RECIPE FOR
AFTN CONVECTION.

DURING THE AFTN CAPES BUILD TO 1000-1800 J/KG ON GFS...1000-2500
J/KG ON NAM. 700-500HPA LAPSE RATES INCG TO 7C IN NAM...BUT ONLY
5.5 ON GFS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 25KT (NAM) TO 35KTS
(GFS).

ALL GUID SHOWS A BIAS TWRD THE SE PRTNS OF FCA FOR HIGHEST CAPES/LAPSE/SHEAR
RATES. GFS MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CAPPING BY AFTN...BUT
THE NAM SHOWS CAP ARND 650HPA...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT SUN THIS WILL
BE OVERCOME LATE IN THE DAY. SO IF THE SUN COMES OUT...THIS CAPE
WILL BE TAPPED IN SCATTERED SVR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY SE.

IS WHAT ISN`T AS PRONOUNCED AS PVS RUNS IS THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
DYNAMICS. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HV ONE SHORT WV EXITING FCA IN LATE
MRNG...AND A SECOND MVNG INTO EPA/NJ DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
BULK OF THIS ENERGY STAYING S OF FCA...OR IN S PERIPHERY OF FCA.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO BEST CHANCES FOR SVR TSTMS IS SE PRTNS OF
FCA. ELSEWHERE MARGINAL FOR SVR STORMS...BUT COULD STILL BE A
CONCERN...BUT IT WILL BE ISOLD PULSE TYPE AND NOT PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF FCA EXCPT FAR N FOR DAY 2.

OTHERWISE A WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
SOUTH. SUN NT THIS SHRT WV OVER EPA/NJ LIFTS NE INTO FCA...AS
500HPA TROF SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET MAX AND ITS ASSOC
VORT MVNG INTO E GRTLKS. IN RESPONSE SFC CYCLONE ENSUES OVER E
GRTLKS AND TRACKS NE BY MON MRNG. SUN NT -SHRA/TSMS WILL INCRG IN
COVERAGE ACROSS FCA BCMG WIDESPREAD BY MRNG. A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS DEEPENING CYCLONE.

ON MON MRNG THIS CDFNT IS FM RUT TO NY I88 CORRIDOR. N OF IT PCPN
WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ANNA FRONT RAIN/SHRA...WHILE ALONG IT AND TO
ITS S & E...WM SECTOR CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1700 J/KG WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW EMBEDDED TSTMS TO FORM AHEAD AND NR THE CDFNT. THIS CDFNT
WILL SLOWLY DRAG E THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH -SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY.

TO ITS N TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...REACHING THE 80S TO ITS S
AND E MON.

MONDAY NIGHT THE 500HPA SHORT WVS & SFC LOW WILL RACE NE INTO
QB...CARVING A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE E CONUS. THIS DRAGS THE
CDFNT TO THE COAST...AND -SHRA WILL DIM AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BRISK N WINDS.

TUESDAY MRNG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER GRT PLAINS MVS EAST. CDFNT
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...SCT -SHRA END. WITH 500HPA TROF AXIS STILL
WEST OF FCA...MUCH OF FCA WILL REMAIN IN DRY SLOT TUES AND TUES NT
AS COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO FCA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO
NORMALS WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. TUES NT WILL SEE LOWS
MID 40S TO MID 50S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB AND
TAILING TROF OVER MOST OF E CONUS. OVER TIME THE CUT OFF LIFTS NE
IN WESTERLIES OVER N CANADA....AND A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS OFF
AND RETROGRADES SW TO MISS VLY BY END OF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BACK BUILDS TWRD E SEABOARD. WHILE THE MDLS SUITE
IS FAIRLY IN AGREEMENT...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS.

FCA REMAINS LARGELY ON EAST SIDE OF THE 500HPA TROF AS IT RETREATS
N...AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS IN THE DRY SLOT ASSOC WITH THIS
FEATURE IN THE GFS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CUT OFF CLOSER AND
FURTHER S...AND SVRL PASSING SHORT WVS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA MAINLY W AND OVER HIR TRRN.

THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE..IS AS PERIOD ENDS GFS HAS BERMUDA
HIGH BACKING INTO E COAST...ALONG WITH A COASTAL TYPE FRONT MAY
RESULT IN INCRG S FLOW...TD AND THREAT OF TSTMS SAT AFTN S TIER.

HPCS OVERNIGHT PACKAGE REFLECTS PVS ECMWF AND CURRENT GFS. IT WILL
BE A PERIOD OF PC CONDS...AND TEMPS 3-5 DEG BLO NORMAL WITH WARM
DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. ISOLD -SHRA CANT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY
OVER HIR TRRN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL BE A DRY COMFORTABLE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE. WILL MENTION PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW STARTING AROUND 08Z-09Z...BUT SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS OCCUR. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON
SUNDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE DROP TO
MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 55 AND 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
THESE WILL BECOME SCATTERED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST THE THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/SNYDER/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KBOX 261532
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1132 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER
TODAY.  LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS ITS ATTENDING WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT THEN
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS EAST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM UPDATE... UPDATED TO INCLUDE SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA INCLUDING CT AND RI INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEY WOULD FALL FROM MID CLOUDS AND THROUGH A DRY
ATMOSPHERE SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADJUSTED SURFACE DEWPOINTS ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES HIGHER FOR
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...ALREADY
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S AT MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND CHATHAM. COULD MIX DOWN SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER SO KEPT THE TEMPORARY DECREASING
TREND FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP TO AROUND 85.
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST.

SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME A BIT GUSTY...TO 15 TO 25 MPH...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP ANY SEA BREEZES CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

QUIET/DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER LOW PRES EXITS
THE GREAT LAKES AND REORGANIZES OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. ITS ATTENDING
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING.
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT/MA
AND TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT GIVEN SSW WINDS
ADVECTING HIGHER DEW PT AIR INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY...

MODELS STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION AND TIMING OF WARM SECTOR SUNDAY.
00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEFS INDICATING BETTER INSTABILITY/WARM SECTOR
AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LESS
INSTABILITY OVER RI AND EASTERN MA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS AND PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS THIS REGION.  AT THIS
TIME RANGE LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A RISK OF STRONG TSTMS LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. OF COURSE THIS IS PENDING PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

AS FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BE AN ACTIVE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MODELS SUGGEST MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
/MID AND UPPER LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. QG FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS LFQ OF
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TOO EARLY
FOR MORE DETAILS GIVEN MODEL SPREAD HERE ON HANDLING WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

NEVERTHELESS NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AS DEW PTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

ONE THING CAN BE SAID ABOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK: ANY PACIFIC WEATHER
WILL BE REACHING THE ATLANTIC VIA THE SCENIC ROUTE. DEEP TROUGHS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. MEANWHILE UPPER
RIDGES REBUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE WEST ATLANTIC. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW MERGES WITH THE EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH SUNDAY AND SWINGS ITS ENERGY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
TROUGH AND MAINTAINS ITS POSITION TO OUR WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT LESS WELL
DEFINED LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AT WEEK/S
END.  THIS MEANS THAT THE UPPER FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST
WILL REMAIN S-SW TO N-NE THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE MASS FIELDS AND THERMAL FIELDS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK SIMILAR
IN OVERVIEW. SOME DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS EMERGE THURSDAY-FRIDAY. THE
SIMILARITY BUILDS CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FLOW OF THE FORECAST.
THE LONGER RANGE DIFFERENCES IN DETAIL SUPPORT USING A BLEND OF THE
FORECAST DATA.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUPPORTING 100-KNOT JET. THIS APPROACHES THE COAST
OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING INCREASED UPPER VENTING/LIFT. MEANWHILE 30-40
KNOT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS MOISTURE UP THE COAST ALONG WITH
LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL BUILD POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH PEAK VALUES IN THE LIKELY RANGE. ON MONDAY
WITH UPPER JET NOSE OVER THE REGION AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP/CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
N AND W OF I-95.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH 1.75-2 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
SHOULD LINGER NEAR 1.5 INCHES MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS
FEATURE ALSO PULLS NORTH/NORTHEAST. MODELS SHOW THIS SURFACE LOW
PULLING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
NIGHT. SO PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY... SECOND SHORTWAVE DEEPENS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. THIS WILL ALSO HOLD THE UPPER JET IN PLACE WITH ENTRANCE
REGION OVER NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT ENOUGH FACTORS IN FAVOR OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN SRN NH/EASTERN MASS WHERE THE UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE BEST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE TROUGH AND ATLANTIC RIDGE
REMAINING IN POSITION...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO LINGER EAST OF OUR
AREA WITH SHOWERS OVER THE OCEAN. ON FRIDAY AS THE BULK OF THE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH CANADA LEAVING A MUCH WEAKER UPPER FLOW
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...EXPECT THE OCEAN RIDGE TO NUDGE
WESTWARD AND SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW WEST. THIS WILL BRING THE STALLED
FRONT CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...POSSIBLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. WILL SHOW
CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY A BLEND OF GFS AND ITS MAVMOS OUTPUT.

SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN
CT...RI...AND SOUTHEAST MA. SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST MA.

TONIGHT...DRY WITH VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MARGINAL VFR/MVFR
TOWARD MORNING ALONG WITH A LOW PROB OF IFR CIGS WELL INLAND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ENTER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...
MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MODEST SW WIND TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU THIS EVENING THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.
AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY SRN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EASTERN MASS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO
THIS EVENING AND THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY REGARDING TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER NICE BOATING DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY. ONLY WRINKLE WILL BE MODEST SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH A
FEW GUSTS NEAR SHORE POSSIBLY APPROACHING 25 KT. HELD OFF ON A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE WINDS LESS THAN
25 KT.

TONIGHT...QUIET TO START BUT AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS REDUCING VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LOW RISK
OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH A LOW RISK OF GUSTS TO 25 KT. SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. TODAY DEFINITELY THE BETTER OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS AT
TIMES. THE STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BUILD SEAS WITH 5-8 FEET ON
THE EXPOSED WATERS. WARM HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO LOW
VSBYS IN AREAS OF FOG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
DURING THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN MONDAY...STARING SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST. CONTINUED 5-6 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS.  A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME OF THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FIELD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/FIELD
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/FIELD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261532
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1132 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER
TODAY.  LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS ITS ATTENDING WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT THEN
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS EAST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM UPDATE... UPDATED TO INCLUDE SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA INCLUDING CT AND RI INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEY WOULD FALL FROM MID CLOUDS AND THROUGH A DRY
ATMOSPHERE SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADJUSTED SURFACE DEWPOINTS ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES HIGHER FOR
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...ALREADY
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S AT MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND CHATHAM. COULD MIX DOWN SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER SO KEPT THE TEMPORARY DECREASING
TREND FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP TO AROUND 85.
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST.

SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME A BIT GUSTY...TO 15 TO 25 MPH...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP ANY SEA BREEZES CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

QUIET/DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER LOW PRES EXITS
THE GREAT LAKES AND REORGANIZES OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. ITS ATTENDING
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING.
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT/MA
AND TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT GIVEN SSW WINDS
ADVECTING HIGHER DEW PT AIR INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY...

MODELS STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION AND TIMING OF WARM SECTOR SUNDAY.
00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEFS INDICATING BETTER INSTABILITY/WARM SECTOR
AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LESS
INSTABILITY OVER RI AND EASTERN MA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS AND PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS THIS REGION.  AT THIS
TIME RANGE LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A RISK OF STRONG TSTMS LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. OF COURSE THIS IS PENDING PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

AS FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BE AN ACTIVE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MODELS SUGGEST MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
/MID AND UPPER LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. QG FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS LFQ OF
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TOO EARLY
FOR MORE DETAILS GIVEN MODEL SPREAD HERE ON HANDLING WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

NEVERTHELESS NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AS DEW PTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

ONE THING CAN BE SAID ABOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK: ANY PACIFIC WEATHER
WILL BE REACHING THE ATLANTIC VIA THE SCENIC ROUTE. DEEP TROUGHS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. MEANWHILE UPPER
RIDGES REBUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE WEST ATLANTIC. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW MERGES WITH THE EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH SUNDAY AND SWINGS ITS ENERGY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
TROUGH AND MAINTAINS ITS POSITION TO OUR WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT LESS WELL
DEFINED LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AT WEEK/S
END.  THIS MEANS THAT THE UPPER FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST
WILL REMAIN S-SW TO N-NE THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE MASS FIELDS AND THERMAL FIELDS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK SIMILAR
IN OVERVIEW. SOME DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS EMERGE THURSDAY-FRIDAY. THE
SIMILARITY BUILDS CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FLOW OF THE FORECAST.
THE LONGER RANGE DIFFERENCES IN DETAIL SUPPORT USING A BLEND OF THE
FORECAST DATA.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUPPORTING 100-KNOT JET. THIS APPROACHES THE COAST
OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING INCREASED UPPER VENTING/LIFT. MEANWHILE 30-40
KNOT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS MOISTURE UP THE COAST ALONG WITH
LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL BUILD POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH PEAK VALUES IN THE LIKELY RANGE. ON MONDAY
WITH UPPER JET NOSE OVER THE REGION AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP/CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
N AND W OF I-95.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH 1.75-2 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
SHOULD LINGER NEAR 1.5 INCHES MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS
FEATURE ALSO PULLS NORTH/NORTHEAST. MODELS SHOW THIS SURFACE LOW
PULLING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
NIGHT. SO PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY... SECOND SHORTWAVE DEEPENS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. THIS WILL ALSO HOLD THE UPPER JET IN PLACE WITH ENTRANCE
REGION OVER NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT ENOUGH FACTORS IN FAVOR OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN SRN NH/EASTERN MASS WHERE THE UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE BEST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE TROUGH AND ATLANTIC RIDGE
REMAINING IN POSITION...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO LINGER EAST OF OUR
AREA WITH SHOWERS OVER THE OCEAN. ON FRIDAY AS THE BULK OF THE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH CANADA LEAVING A MUCH WEAKER UPPER FLOW
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...EXPECT THE OCEAN RIDGE TO NUDGE
WESTWARD AND SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW WEST. THIS WILL BRING THE STALLED
FRONT CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...POSSIBLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. WILL SHOW
CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY A BLEND OF GFS AND ITS MAVMOS OUTPUT.

SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN
CT...RI...AND SOUTHEAST MA. SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST MA.

TONIGHT...DRY WITH VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MARGINAL VFR/MVFR
TOWARD MORNING ALONG WITH A LOW PROB OF IFR CIGS WELL INLAND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ENTER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...
MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MODEST SW WIND TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU THIS EVENING THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.
AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY SRN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EASTERN MASS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO
THIS EVENING AND THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY REGARDING TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER NICE BOATING DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY. ONLY WRINKLE WILL BE MODEST SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH A
FEW GUSTS NEAR SHORE POSSIBLY APPROACHING 25 KT. HELD OFF ON A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE WINDS LESS THAN
25 KT.

TONIGHT...QUIET TO START BUT AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS REDUCING VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LOW RISK
OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH A LOW RISK OF GUSTS TO 25 KT. SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. TODAY DEFINITELY THE BETTER OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS AT
TIMES. THE STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BUILD SEAS WITH 5-8 FEET ON
THE EXPOSED WATERS. WARM HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO LOW
VSBYS IN AREAS OF FOG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
DURING THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN MONDAY...STARING SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST. CONTINUED 5-6 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS.  A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME OF THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FIELD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/FIELD
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/FIELD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261532
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1132 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER
TODAY.  LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS ITS ATTENDING WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT THEN
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS EAST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM UPDATE... UPDATED TO INCLUDE SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA INCLUDING CT AND RI INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEY WOULD FALL FROM MID CLOUDS AND THROUGH A DRY
ATMOSPHERE SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADJUSTED SURFACE DEWPOINTS ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES HIGHER FOR
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...ALREADY
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S AT MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND CHATHAM. COULD MIX DOWN SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER SO KEPT THE TEMPORARY DECREASING
TREND FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP TO AROUND 85.
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST.

SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME A BIT GUSTY...TO 15 TO 25 MPH...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP ANY SEA BREEZES CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

QUIET/DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER LOW PRES EXITS
THE GREAT LAKES AND REORGANIZES OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. ITS ATTENDING
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING.
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT/MA
AND TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT GIVEN SSW WINDS
ADVECTING HIGHER DEW PT AIR INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY...

MODELS STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION AND TIMING OF WARM SECTOR SUNDAY.
00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEFS INDICATING BETTER INSTABILITY/WARM SECTOR
AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LESS
INSTABILITY OVER RI AND EASTERN MA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS AND PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS THIS REGION.  AT THIS
TIME RANGE LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A RISK OF STRONG TSTMS LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. OF COURSE THIS IS PENDING PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

AS FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BE AN ACTIVE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MODELS SUGGEST MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
/MID AND UPPER LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. QG FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS LFQ OF
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TOO EARLY
FOR MORE DETAILS GIVEN MODEL SPREAD HERE ON HANDLING WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

NEVERTHELESS NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AS DEW PTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

ONE THING CAN BE SAID ABOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK: ANY PACIFIC WEATHER
WILL BE REACHING THE ATLANTIC VIA THE SCENIC ROUTE. DEEP TROUGHS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. MEANWHILE UPPER
RIDGES REBUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE WEST ATLANTIC. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW MERGES WITH THE EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH SUNDAY AND SWINGS ITS ENERGY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
TROUGH AND MAINTAINS ITS POSITION TO OUR WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT LESS WELL
DEFINED LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AT WEEK/S
END.  THIS MEANS THAT THE UPPER FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST
WILL REMAIN S-SW TO N-NE THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE MASS FIELDS AND THERMAL FIELDS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK SIMILAR
IN OVERVIEW. SOME DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS EMERGE THURSDAY-FRIDAY. THE
SIMILARITY BUILDS CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FLOW OF THE FORECAST.
THE LONGER RANGE DIFFERENCES IN DETAIL SUPPORT USING A BLEND OF THE
FORECAST DATA.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUPPORTING 100-KNOT JET. THIS APPROACHES THE COAST
OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING INCREASED UPPER VENTING/LIFT. MEANWHILE 30-40
KNOT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS MOISTURE UP THE COAST ALONG WITH
LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL BUILD POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH PEAK VALUES IN THE LIKELY RANGE. ON MONDAY
WITH UPPER JET NOSE OVER THE REGION AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP/CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
N AND W OF I-95.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH 1.75-2 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
SHOULD LINGER NEAR 1.5 INCHES MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS
FEATURE ALSO PULLS NORTH/NORTHEAST. MODELS SHOW THIS SURFACE LOW
PULLING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
NIGHT. SO PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY... SECOND SHORTWAVE DEEPENS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. THIS WILL ALSO HOLD THE UPPER JET IN PLACE WITH ENTRANCE
REGION OVER NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT ENOUGH FACTORS IN FAVOR OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN SRN NH/EASTERN MASS WHERE THE UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE BEST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE TROUGH AND ATLANTIC RIDGE
REMAINING IN POSITION...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO LINGER EAST OF OUR
AREA WITH SHOWERS OVER THE OCEAN. ON FRIDAY AS THE BULK OF THE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH CANADA LEAVING A MUCH WEAKER UPPER FLOW
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...EXPECT THE OCEAN RIDGE TO NUDGE
WESTWARD AND SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW WEST. THIS WILL BRING THE STALLED
FRONT CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...POSSIBLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. WILL SHOW
CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY A BLEND OF GFS AND ITS MAVMOS OUTPUT.

SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN
CT...RI...AND SOUTHEAST MA. SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST MA.

TONIGHT...DRY WITH VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MARGINAL VFR/MVFR
TOWARD MORNING ALONG WITH A LOW PROB OF IFR CIGS WELL INLAND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ENTER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...
MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MODEST SW WIND TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU THIS EVENING THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.
AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY SRN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EASTERN MASS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO
THIS EVENING AND THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY REGARDING TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER NICE BOATING DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY. ONLY WRINKLE WILL BE MODEST SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH A
FEW GUSTS NEAR SHORE POSSIBLY APPROACHING 25 KT. HELD OFF ON A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE WINDS LESS THAN
25 KT.

TONIGHT...QUIET TO START BUT AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS REDUCING VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LOW RISK
OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH A LOW RISK OF GUSTS TO 25 KT. SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. TODAY DEFINITELY THE BETTER OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS AT
TIMES. THE STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BUILD SEAS WITH 5-8 FEET ON
THE EXPOSED WATERS. WARM HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO LOW
VSBYS IN AREAS OF FOG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
DURING THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN MONDAY...STARING SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST. CONTINUED 5-6 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS.  A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME OF THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FIELD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/FIELD
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/FIELD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261532
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1132 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER
TODAY.  LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS ITS ATTENDING WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT THEN
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS EAST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1130 AM UPDATE... UPDATED TO INCLUDE SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA INCLUDING CT AND RI INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEY WOULD FALL FROM MID CLOUDS AND THROUGH A DRY
ATMOSPHERE SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADJUSTED SURFACE DEWPOINTS ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES HIGHER FOR
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...ALREADY
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S AT MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND CHATHAM. COULD MIX DOWN SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER SO KEPT THE TEMPORARY DECREASING
TREND FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP TO AROUND 85.
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST.

SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME A BIT GUSTY...TO 15 TO 25 MPH...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP ANY SEA BREEZES CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...

QUIET/DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER LOW PRES EXITS
THE GREAT LAKES AND REORGANIZES OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. ITS ATTENDING
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING.
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT/MA
AND TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT GIVEN SSW WINDS
ADVECTING HIGHER DEW PT AIR INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY...

MODELS STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION AND TIMING OF WARM SECTOR SUNDAY.
00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEFS INDICATING BETTER INSTABILITY/WARM SECTOR
AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LESS
INSTABILITY OVER RI AND EASTERN MA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS AND PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS THIS REGION.  AT THIS
TIME RANGE LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A RISK OF STRONG TSTMS LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. OF COURSE THIS IS PENDING PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

AS FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BE AN ACTIVE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MODELS SUGGEST MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
/MID AND UPPER LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. QG FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED AS LFQ OF
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TOO EARLY
FOR MORE DETAILS GIVEN MODEL SPREAD HERE ON HANDLING WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

NEVERTHELESS NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AS DEW PTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

ONE THING CAN BE SAID ABOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK: ANY PACIFIC WEATHER
WILL BE REACHING THE ATLANTIC VIA THE SCENIC ROUTE. DEEP TROUGHS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. MEANWHILE UPPER
RIDGES REBUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE WEST ATLANTIC. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW MERGES WITH THE EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH SUNDAY AND SWINGS ITS ENERGY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
TROUGH AND MAINTAINS ITS POSITION TO OUR WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT LESS WELL
DEFINED LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AT WEEK/S
END.  THIS MEANS THAT THE UPPER FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST
WILL REMAIN S-SW TO N-NE THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE MASS FIELDS AND THERMAL FIELDS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK SIMILAR
IN OVERVIEW. SOME DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS EMERGE THURSDAY-FRIDAY. THE
SIMILARITY BUILDS CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FLOW OF THE FORECAST.
THE LONGER RANGE DIFFERENCES IN DETAIL SUPPORT USING A BLEND OF THE
FORECAST DATA.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUPPORTING 100-KNOT JET. THIS APPROACHES THE COAST
OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING INCREASED UPPER VENTING/LIFT. MEANWHILE 30-40
KNOT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS MOISTURE UP THE COAST ALONG WITH
LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL BUILD POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH PEAK VALUES IN THE LIKELY RANGE. ON MONDAY
WITH UPPER JET NOSE OVER THE REGION AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP/CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
N AND W OF I-95.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH 1.75-2 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
SHOULD LINGER NEAR 1.5 INCHES MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS
FEATURE ALSO PULLS NORTH/NORTHEAST. MODELS SHOW THIS SURFACE LOW
PULLING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
NIGHT. SO PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY... SECOND SHORTWAVE DEEPENS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. THIS WILL ALSO HOLD THE UPPER JET IN PLACE WITH ENTRANCE
REGION OVER NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. LOW
CONFIDENCE...BUT ENOUGH FACTORS IN FAVOR OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN SRN NH/EASTERN MASS WHERE THE UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE BEST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE TROUGH AND ATLANTIC RIDGE
REMAINING IN POSITION...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO LINGER EAST OF OUR
AREA WITH SHOWERS OVER THE OCEAN. ON FRIDAY AS THE BULK OF THE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH CANADA LEAVING A MUCH WEAKER UPPER FLOW
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...EXPECT THE OCEAN RIDGE TO NUDGE
WESTWARD AND SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW WEST. THIS WILL BRING THE STALLED
FRONT CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...POSSIBLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. WILL SHOW
CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY A BLEND OF GFS AND ITS MAVMOS OUTPUT.

SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN
CT...RI...AND SOUTHEAST MA. SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST MA.

TONIGHT...DRY WITH VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MARGINAL VFR/MVFR
TOWARD MORNING ALONG WITH A LOW PROB OF IFR CIGS WELL INLAND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ENTER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...
MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MORNING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MODEST SW WIND TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU THIS EVENING THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS.
AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY SRN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EASTERN MASS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE INTO
THIS EVENING AND THEN LOWERING CONFIDENCE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY REGARDING TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER NICE BOATING DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
GOOD VSBY. ONLY WRINKLE WILL BE MODEST SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH A
FEW GUSTS NEAR SHORE POSSIBLY APPROACHING 25 KT. HELD OFF ON A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE WINDS LESS THAN
25 KT.

TONIGHT...QUIET TO START BUT AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS REDUCING VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LOW RISK
OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH A LOW RISK OF GUSTS TO 25 KT. SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. TODAY DEFINITELY THE BETTER OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS AT
TIMES. THE STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BUILD SEAS WITH 5-8 FEET ON
THE EXPOSED WATERS. WARM HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO LOW
VSBYS IN AREAS OF FOG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
DURING THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN MONDAY...STARING SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST. CONTINUED 5-6 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS.  A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME OF THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FIELD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/FIELD
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA/FIELD




000
FXUS61 KALY 261431
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE C