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000
FXUS61 KBOX 292026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
426 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
215 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 40 BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE
WIND...IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOSTON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK
UP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT MAY
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...REACHING NEAR 30 KT. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
426 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
215 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 40 BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE
WIND...IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOSTON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK
UP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT MAY
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...REACHING NEAR 30 KT. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG


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000
FXUS61 KALY 292015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE. THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN
TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ADVANCING
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AROUND KGFL. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
EXTENSIVE FARTHER SOUTH...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 292015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE. THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN
TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ADVANCING
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AROUND KGFL. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
EXTENSIVE FARTHER SOUTH...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 292015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE. THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN
TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ADVANCING
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AROUND KGFL. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
EXTENSIVE FARTHER SOUTH...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 292015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE. THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS
THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S...THEN
TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ADVANCING
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AROUND KGFL. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
EXTENSIVE FARTHER SOUTH...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291944
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
344 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
215 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 40 BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOSTON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK
UP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT MAY
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...DUNTEN/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291944
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
344 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
215 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 40 BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOSTON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK
UP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT MAY
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...DUNTEN/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
213 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 40 BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOSTON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
213 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 40 BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOSTON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
213 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 40 BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOSTON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
213 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 40 BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOSTON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
213 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 40 BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOSTON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
213 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM
CANADA AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 40 BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. SEA BREEZE AT BOSTON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 291745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUNNY SKY AND BREEZY AT TIMES BUT CURRENT FORECAST MOSTLY IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...SO FEW CHANGES IF ANY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AROUND KGFL. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
EXTENSIVE FARTHER SOUTH...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 291745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUNNY SKY AND BREEZY AT TIMES BUT CURRENT FORECAST MOSTLY IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...SO FEW CHANGES IF ANY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AROUND KGFL. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
EXTENSIVE FARTHER SOUTH...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY...BECOMING LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 291709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUNNY SKY AND BREEZY AT TIMES BUT CURRENT FORECAST MOSTLY IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...SO FEW CHANGES IF ANY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 291709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUNNY SKY AND BREEZY AT TIMES BUT CURRENT FORECAST MOSTLY IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...SO FEW CHANGES IF ANY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 291709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUNNY SKY AND BREEZY AT TIMES BUT CURRENT FORECAST MOSTLY IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...SO FEW CHANGES IF ANY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 291709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUNNY SKY AND BREEZY AT TIMES BUT CURRENT FORECAST MOSTLY IN LINE
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...SO FEW CHANGES IF ANY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 291443
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 1043 AM EDT...AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 20S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THANKS TO THE
STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 291443
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 1043 AM EDT...AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 20S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THANKS TO THE
STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 291443
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 1043 AM EDT...AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 20S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THANKS TO THE
STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA TODAY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR.
A FEW CLOUDS LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW
TO REBOUND WITH VALUES STILL IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TODAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE EASTERN USA. COULD BE SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT
MID TO LATE MORNING. COLD TEMPS ALOFT THIS MORNING SHOULD MODERATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 925 MB WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THEN SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES IN TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE COLUMN EXTENDS UP TO 600
MB WITH ABOUT 10 MB/HR OF LIFT.

EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON UPPER
JET...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EAST. THE COLD FROPA WOULD BE AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MIGHT ALLOW SNOW INITIALLY BUT EXPECT WARMING
DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EVENING
HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LINGERING MVFR WILL INCREASE TO VFR.
GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA TODAY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR.
A FEW CLOUDS LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW
TO REBOUND WITH VALUES STILL IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TODAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE EASTERN USA. COULD BE SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT
MID TO LATE MORNING. COLD TEMPS ALOFT THIS MORNING SHOULD MODERATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 925 MB WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THEN SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES IN TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE COLUMN EXTENDS UP TO 600
MB WITH ABOUT 10 MB/HR OF LIFT.

EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON UPPER
JET...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EAST. THE COLD FROPA WOULD BE AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MIGHT ALLOW SNOW INITIALLY BUT EXPECT WARMING
DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EVENING
HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LINGERING MVFR WILL INCREASE TO VFR.
GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA TODAY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR.
A FEW CLOUDS LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW
TO REBOUND WITH VALUES STILL IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TODAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE EASTERN USA. COULD BE SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT
MID TO LATE MORNING. COLD TEMPS ALOFT THIS MORNING SHOULD MODERATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 925 MB WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THEN SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES IN TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE COLUMN EXTENDS UP TO 600
MB WITH ABOUT 10 MB/HR OF LIFT.

EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON UPPER
JET...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EAST. THE COLD FROPA WOULD BE AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MIGHT ALLOW SNOW INITIALLY BUT EXPECT WARMING
DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EVENING
HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LINGERING MVFR WILL INCREASE TO VFR.
GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA TODAY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR.
A FEW CLOUDS LINGER ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW
TO REBOUND WITH VALUES STILL IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TODAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE EASTERN USA. COULD BE SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT
MID TO LATE MORNING. COLD TEMPS ALOFT THIS MORNING SHOULD MODERATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 925 MB WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THEN SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES IN TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE COLUMN EXTENDS UP TO 600
MB WITH ABOUT 10 MB/HR OF LIFT.

EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON UPPER
JET...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EAST. THE COLD FROPA WOULD BE AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MIGHT ALLOW SNOW INITIALLY BUT EXPECT WARMING
DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EVENING
HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LINGERING MVFR WILL INCREASE TO VFR.
GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291102
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
702 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA TODAY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING AS DRY AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. STILL SOME FLURRIES ON NANTUCKET BUT THAT
SHOULD END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE EASTERN USA. COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER
THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT MID TO LATE
MORNING. COLD TEMPS ALOFT THIS MORNING SHOULD MODERATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 925 MB WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THEN SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES IN TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE COLUMN EXTENDS UP TO 600
MB WITH ABOUT 10 MB/HR OF LIFT.

EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON UPPER
JET...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EAST. THE COLD FROPA WOULD BE AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MIGHT ALLOW SNOW INITIALLY BUT EXPECT WARMING
DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EVENING
HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LINGERING MVFR WILL INCREASE TO VFR.
GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291102
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
702 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA TODAY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING AS DRY AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. STILL SOME FLURRIES ON NANTUCKET BUT THAT
SHOULD END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE EASTERN USA. COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER
THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT MID TO LATE
MORNING. COLD TEMPS ALOFT THIS MORNING SHOULD MODERATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 925 MB WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THEN SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES IN TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE COLUMN EXTENDS UP TO 600
MB WITH ABOUT 10 MB/HR OF LIFT.

EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON UPPER
JET...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EAST. THE COLD FROPA WOULD BE AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MIGHT ALLOW SNOW INITIALLY BUT EXPECT WARMING
DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EVENING
HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LINGERING MVFR WILL INCREASE TO VFR.
GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291102
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
702 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA TODAY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING AS DRY AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. STILL SOME FLURRIES ON NANTUCKET BUT THAT
SHOULD END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE EASTERN USA. COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER
THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT MID TO LATE
MORNING. COLD TEMPS ALOFT THIS MORNING SHOULD MODERATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 925 MB WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THEN SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES IN TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE COLUMN EXTENDS UP TO 600
MB WITH ABOUT 10 MB/HR OF LIFT.

EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON UPPER
JET...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EAST. THE COLD FROPA WOULD BE AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MIGHT ALLOW SNOW INITIALLY BUT EXPECT WARMING
DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EVENING
HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LINGERING MVFR WILL INCREASE TO VFR.
GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 291046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. SOME SPOTS
IN THE ADIRONDACK WERE AROUND ZERO DEGREES.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 291046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. SOME SPOTS
IN THE ADIRONDACK WERE AROUND ZERO DEGREES.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 291046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. SOME SPOTS
IN THE ADIRONDACK WERE AROUND ZERO DEGREES.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 291046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. SOME SPOTS
IN THE ADIRONDACK WERE AROUND ZERO DEGREES.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 291036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 291036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 291036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 291036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 291036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 291036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT
THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...
THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...EXCEPT SOUTH AT
KGFL. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE WIND TO 5 TO 10 KTS
AGAIN...WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 291028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 291028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 291028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS 630 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD START TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES
TANKED IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST PLACES...CLOSER TO 20
TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED.

ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 290912
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
512 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES LEFT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WAS
COMPLETELY DRY. CLOUDS WERE GENERALLY DISSIPATING BUT A STILL
REMAINED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPING AND IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE OCEAN STORM AND UPPER AIR LOW MOVED FURTHER
AWAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN OUR SOUTHEAST
AREAS DUE TO PERSISTENT  CLOUDS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS OVER MOST
AREAS...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS AND EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF TEMPERATURES
AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LEFTOVER CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES MORE. THE WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 290912
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
512 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES LEFT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WAS
COMPLETELY DRY. CLOUDS WERE GENERALLY DISSIPATING BUT A STILL
REMAINED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPING AND IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE OCEAN STORM AND UPPER AIR LOW MOVED FURTHER
AWAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN OUR SOUTHEAST
AREAS DUE TO PERSISTENT  CLOUDS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS OVER MOST
AREAS...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS AND EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF TEMPERATURES
AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LEFTOVER CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES MORE. THE WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY BUT STILL COLD WEATHER TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS YET
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST DRY WEATHER IN ALL AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT POPS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...POPS OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN ALL AREAS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL CARRY MUCH MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

BEYOND THIS POINT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. BASED
ON THE GFS...ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...THE WEATHER REMAINS DRY BUT COLD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WAVES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MOVES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MUCH SLOWER...AND LINGERS MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
START TO DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S...AND IF PCPN DOES OCCUR...MOST AREAS WILL GET THE PCPN
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 290847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES LEFT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WAS
COMPLETELY DRY. CLOUDS WERE GENERALLY DISSIPATING BUT A STILL
REMAINED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPING AND IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE OCEAN STORM AND UPPER AIR LOW MOVED FURTHER
AWAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN OUR SOUTHEAST
AREAS DUE TO PERSISTENT  CLOUDS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS OVER MOST
AREAS...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS AND EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF TEMPERATURES
AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LEFTOVER CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES MORE. THE WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&


.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 290847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES LEFT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WAS
COMPLETELY DRY. CLOUDS WERE GENERALLY DISSIPATING BUT A STILL
REMAINED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPING AND IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE OCEAN STORM AND UPPER AIR LOW MOVED FURTHER
AWAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN OUR SOUTHEAST
AREAS DUE TO PERSISTENT  CLOUDS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS OVER MOST
AREAS...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS AND EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF TEMPERATURES
AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LEFTOVER CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES MORE. THE WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&


.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 290847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES LEFT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WAS
COMPLETELY DRY. CLOUDS WERE GENERALLY DISSIPATING BUT A STILL
REMAINED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPING AND IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE OCEAN STORM AND UPPER AIR LOW MOVED FURTHER
AWAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN OUR SOUTHEAST
AREAS DUE TO PERSISTENT  CLOUDS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS OVER MOST
AREAS...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS AND EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF TEMPERATURES
AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LEFTOVER CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES MORE. THE WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&


.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 290847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES LEFT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WAS
COMPLETELY DRY. CLOUDS WERE GENERALLY DISSIPATING BUT A STILL
REMAINED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPING AND IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE OCEAN STORM AND UPPER AIR LOW MOVED FURTHER
AWAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN OUR SOUTHEAST
AREAS DUE TO PERSISTENT  CLOUDS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS OVER MOST
AREAS...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS AND EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF TEMPERATURES
AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LEFTOVER CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES MORE. THE WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&


.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 290847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES LEFT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WAS
COMPLETELY DRY. CLOUDS WERE GENERALLY DISSIPATING BUT A STILL
REMAINED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPING AND IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE OCEAN STORM AND UPPER AIR LOW MOVED FURTHER
AWAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN OUR SOUTHEAST
AREAS DUE TO PERSISTENT  CLOUDS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS OVER MOST
AREAS...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS AND EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF TEMPERATURES
AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LEFTOVER CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES MORE. THE WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&


.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 290847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO BRING A BRIGHT SUNNY BUT
BRISK DAY TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES LEFT IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WAS
COMPLETELY DRY. CLOUDS WERE GENERALLY DISSIPATING BUT A STILL
REMAINED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPING AND IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE OCEAN STORM AND UPPER AIR LOW MOVED FURTHER
AWAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IN OUR SOUTHEAST
AREAS DUE TO PERSISTENT  CLOUDS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS OVER MOST
AREAS...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS AND EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF TEMPERATURES
AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

LEFTOVER CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES MORE. THE WIND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP COACH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS...UPPER 30S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FURTHER
SOUTH...TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 40S. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A
FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&


.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS...RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT
THROUGH EVENING AS THE WIND GOES LIGHT...BUT THEN THE DROP WILL
LIKELY HALT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ENSUES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...TO AROUND 30 LOCALLY IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOST FORCIBLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT IN THOSE AREAS...LEADING TO
A SMALL ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY MONDAY...10-20 MPH. THIS
WILL GIVE US A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES...INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME LOWER
50S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...TURNING THE WIND TO THE WEST...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS UP TO
30-40 MPH. AT THIS POINT...IT DID NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY
WIND ADVISORIES...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOME OF
THESE ATTEMPTING TO WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARD THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IT TURNS COLDER WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S...AND
EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MORE OF THE NUISANCE
VARIETY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH OF
ONTARIO...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IT FALL ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS THE 00Z NAM WHICH BROUGHT A QUARTER
INCH OF QPF TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF I-90. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL WAS
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR NOW...WE HAVE LEANED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY MISSING OUR
REGION...BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF I-90. IT WOULD MARGINALLY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL
HARD ENOUGH...BUT IT CAME LIGHTER...IT WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS...SNOW HIGHER TERRAIN.

ASSUMING THE PRECIPITATION IS A MISS...BUT WE STILL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...LEANED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. IF WE WERE
TO GET MORE IN THE PRECIPITATION THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT IT CLEARS OUT AND WE ARE LEFT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR COLD
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COLD TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE LOW SIDE IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS...DRY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAIN DRY AS A COMPACT LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

A LIGHT WIND THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WIND WILL INCREASE AS IT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS WIND WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE
SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290809
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
409 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA TODAY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECT A CLEARING TREND DURING THIS TIME WITH SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS THE LAST TO CLEAR. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER ON THE
ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST A LITTLE PAST 8 AM.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE EASTERN USA. COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER
THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT MID TO LATE
MORNING. COLD TEMPS ALOFT THIS MORNING SHOULD MODERATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 925 MB WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THEN SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES IN TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE COLUMN EXTENDS UP TO 600
MB WITH ABOUT 10 MB/HR OF LIFT.

EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON UPPER
JET...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EAST. THE COLD FROPA WOULD BE AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MIGHT ALLOW SNOW INITIALLY BUT EXPECT WARMING
DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. PATCHY 1500 FOOT CIGS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LINGERING MVFR WILL INCREASE TO VFR.
GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290809
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
409 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA TODAY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECT A CLEARING TREND DURING THIS TIME WITH SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS THE LAST TO CLEAR. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER ON THE
ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST A LITTLE PAST 8 AM.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE EASTERN USA. COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER
THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT MID TO LATE
MORNING. COLD TEMPS ALOFT THIS MORNING SHOULD MODERATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 925 MB WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THEN SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES IN TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE COLUMN EXTENDS UP TO 600
MB WITH ABOUT 10 MB/HR OF LIFT.

EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON UPPER
JET...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EAST. THE COLD FROPA WOULD BE AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MIGHT ALLOW SNOW INITIALLY BUT EXPECT WARMING
DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING THROUGH THIS FLOW
ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AND
AGAIN ON THE THURS/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE
FARTHEST NORTH ON THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THREW THE NAM OUT AND DID A BLEND OF
THE GFS/CMC WHICH GIVES A GOOD RUN IN THE MIDDLE. FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE EC BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS
AND HAS SLOWED DOWN BY 24 HOURS. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TOWARDS WPC AS THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAIN STILL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS LONG TERM
EXPECT BY THE THURS INTO SAT TIMEFRAME WHERE A BRIEF WARM-UP...MAY
OCCUR.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR CAA TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST EC HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS IN PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER THE NAM DRAGS THE CLIPPER RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE CMC IS CLOSE TO THE EC ENSEMBLES. OVERALL
BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING
PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SNE. LATEST
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL STAY DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AS WAA
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT/GFS OR FRIDAY/EC.. APPEARS THERE
COULD BE A FEW WAVES THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SO DECIDED TO
BLANKET THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHC POPS AND HOPEFULLY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HRS CAN PUT BETTER DETAIL INTO THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALLOWING FROM SPOTS TO FINALLY
GET ABOUT 60F. TEMPS WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
SAT OR SUN.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. PATCHY 1500 FOOT CIGS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LINGERING MVFR WILL INCREASE TO VFR.
GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290721
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
321 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA TODAY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 8 AM...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECT A CLEARING TREND DURING THIS TIME WITH SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS THE LAST TO CLEAR. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER ON THE
ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST A LITTLE PAST 8 AM.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE EASTERN USA. COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER
THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT MID TO LATE
MORNING. COLD TEMPS ALOFT THIS MORNING SHOULD MODERATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 925 MB WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THEN SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES IN TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE COLUMN EXTENDS UP TO 600
MB WITH ABOUT 10 MB/HR OF LIFT.

EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON UPPER
JET...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EAST. THE COLD FROPA WOULD BE AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MIGHT ALLOW SNOW INITIALLY BUT EXPECT WARMING
DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. PATCHY 1500 FOOT CIGS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...WTB/BELK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290721
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
321 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA TODAY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 8 AM...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECT A CLEARING TREND DURING THIS TIME WITH SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS THE LAST TO CLEAR. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER ON THE
ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST A LITTLE PAST 8 AM.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE EASTERN USA. COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER
THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT MID TO LATE
MORNING. COLD TEMPS ALOFT THIS MORNING SHOULD MODERATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 925 MB WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THEN SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES IN TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE COLUMN EXTENDS UP TO 600
MB WITH ABOUT 10 MB/HR OF LIFT.

EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON UPPER
JET...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EAST. THE COLD FROPA WOULD BE AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MIGHT ALLOW SNOW INITIALLY BUT EXPECT WARMING
DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. PATCHY 1500 FOOT CIGS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...WTB/BELK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290721
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
321 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA TODAY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 8 AM...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECT A CLEARING TREND DURING THIS TIME WITH SOUTH
COASTAL AREAS THE LAST TO CLEAR. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER ON THE
ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST A LITTLE PAST 8 AM.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE EASTERN USA. COULD BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER
THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS BUT THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT MID TO LATE
MORNING. COLD TEMPS ALOFT THIS MORNING SHOULD MODERATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 925 MB WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND THEN SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET MOVES IN TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND SWINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE COLUMN EXTENDS UP TO 600
MB WITH ABOUT 10 MB/HR OF LIFT.

EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED ON UPPER
JET...SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND
MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE EAST. THE COLD FROPA WOULD BE AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MIGHT ALLOW SNOW INITIALLY BUT EXPECT WARMING
DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TODAY...VFR. PATCHY 1500 FOOT CIGS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING
WIND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS
INITIALLY ON THE EXPOSED WATERS AND LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
ON MOST WATERS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXPIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SEAS SUBSIDE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...SWINGING ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH 5-8 FOOT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AT THAT
TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...WTB/BELK



000
FXUS61 KALY 290717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
317 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&


.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THORUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 290717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
317 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&


.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THORUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 290717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
317 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&


.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THORUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 290549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THORUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 290549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THORUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 290549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THORUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 290549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE ENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLEAR
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME CLEAR AT KPOU BY AROUND
10Z. AFTER 10Z EXPECT MAINLY P6SM SKC CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATER SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THORUGH LATE SUNDAY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. AT KGFL...THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING HE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 290544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 290544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 290544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 290544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 290455
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 290455
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 290455
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 290455
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 290455
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 290455
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT ALLOW
THE SKY TO CLEAR. IT WILL TURN VERY COLD BY DAYBREAK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A SUNNY BUT CHILLY. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE A WARM FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN
SHOWERS. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 1245 AM EDT...ANY LEFTOVER SNOW REALLY JUST FLURRIES NOW AND
CONFINED TO MAINLY LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
END BY 400 AM. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THE WIND HAS BEEN A LITTLE GUSTY ESPECIALLY
AT ALBANY...SO BUMPED UP THE WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE THERE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...FALLING.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES LEAVING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...LOWER 20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 290242
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1042 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...THE AREA OF SNOW WHICH LINGERED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION HAS FINALLY
STARTED TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...AND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH AND EAST. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TACONICS AND SOUTH CENTRAL BERKSHIRES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE ENDING. FURTHER N AND W...ANY FLURRIES SHOULD
END OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

MEANWHILE...THE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY HAS ALSO
DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND SHIFTED SOUTHWARD...AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
THROUGH AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS NW LITCHFIELD
CO AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
TACONICS/BERKSHIRES MAY REACH THESE AREAS. AN ADDITIONAL COATING
TO LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH COULD OCCUR IN THESE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...CLEARING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WITH THE CLEARING LINE
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN QUITE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALREADY. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THESE AREAS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...ALTHOUGH EVEN THESE TEMPS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS HAVE BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO FALL DUE TO PERSISTENT
CLOUDS AND SOME WIND. HAVE NOT LOWERED MINS TOO MUCH IN OTHER
AREAS...EXPECTED TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE TEENS...BUT IF WINDS
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED ONCE THE SKIES CLEAR...EVEN
COLDER TEMPS MAY RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 290242
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1042 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...THE AREA OF SNOW WHICH LINGERED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION HAS FINALLY
STARTED TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...AND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH AND EAST. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TACONICS AND SOUTH CENTRAL BERKSHIRES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE ENDING. FURTHER N AND W...ANY FLURRIES SHOULD
END OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

MEANWHILE...THE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY HAS ALSO
DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND SHIFTED SOUTHWARD...AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
THROUGH AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS NW LITCHFIELD
CO AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
TACONICS/BERKSHIRES MAY REACH THESE AREAS. AN ADDITIONAL COATING
TO LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH COULD OCCUR IN THESE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...CLEARING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WITH THE CLEARING LINE
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN QUITE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALREADY. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THESE AREAS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...ALTHOUGH EVEN THESE TEMPS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS HAVE BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO FALL DUE TO PERSISTENT
CLOUDS AND SOME WIND. HAVE NOT LOWERED MINS TOO MUCH IN OTHER
AREAS...EXPECTED TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE TEENS...BUT IF WINDS
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED ONCE THE SKIES CLEAR...EVEN
COLDER TEMPS MAY RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 290242
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1042 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...THE AREA OF SNOW WHICH LINGERED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION HAS FINALLY
STARTED TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...AND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH AND EAST. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TACONICS AND SOUTH CENTRAL BERKSHIRES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE ENDING. FURTHER N AND W...ANY FLURRIES SHOULD
END OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

MEANWHILE...THE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY HAS ALSO
DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND SHIFTED SOUTHWARD...AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
THROUGH AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS NW LITCHFIELD
CO AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
TACONICS/BERKSHIRES MAY REACH THESE AREAS. AN ADDITIONAL COATING
TO LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH COULD OCCUR IN THESE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...CLEARING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WITH THE CLEARING LINE
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN QUITE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALREADY. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THESE AREAS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...ALTHOUGH EVEN THESE TEMPS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS HAVE BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO FALL DUE TO PERSISTENT
CLOUDS AND SOME WIND. HAVE NOT LOWERED MINS TOO MUCH IN OTHER
AREAS...EXPECTED TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE TEENS...BUT IF WINDS
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED ONCE THE SKIES CLEAR...EVEN
COLDER TEMPS MAY RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 290242
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1042 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...THE AREA OF SNOW WHICH LINGERED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION HAS FINALLY
STARTED TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...AND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH AND EAST. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TACONICS AND SOUTH CENTRAL BERKSHIRES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE ENDING. FURTHER N AND W...ANY FLURRIES SHOULD
END OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

MEANWHILE...THE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY HAS ALSO
DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND SHIFTED SOUTHWARD...AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
THROUGH AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS NW LITCHFIELD
CO AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
TACONICS/BERKSHIRES MAY REACH THESE AREAS. AN ADDITIONAL COATING
TO LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH COULD OCCUR IN THESE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...CLEARING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WITH THE CLEARING LINE
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN QUITE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALREADY. HAVE
LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THESE AREAS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...ALTHOUGH EVEN THESE TEMPS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS HAVE BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO FALL DUE TO PERSISTENT
CLOUDS AND SOME WIND. HAVE NOT LOWERED MINS TOO MUCH IN OTHER
AREAS...EXPECTED TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE TEENS...BUT IF WINDS
DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED ONCE THE SKIES CLEAR...EVEN
COLDER TEMPS MAY RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE CENTRAL HILLS...THE HILL
COUNTRY FROM NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY TO NORTHEAST CT AND
NORTHWEST RI. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN GENERAL...AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
COATING TO 2 INCHES WITH A FEW SPOTS NEAR 3 INCHES.

RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE HEAVIEST PCPN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH RI
AND OFFSHORE. EXPECT REMAINING LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 2-3 AM. LAST TO GO WILL BE THE ISLANDS
AND CAPE COD...POSSIBLY A LITTLE LATER THAN 3 AM. SOME LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SNOW IS
OVER THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PREVIOUS AMOUNTS WERE A LITTLE MORE
THAN A COATING.

PRESSURE RISES OVER NEW ENGLAND HAVE BEEN UP TO 4 MB PER 3 HOURS
WHICH IS ENOUGH TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT AND
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS OVERNIGHT. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...VFR NORTH AND MOSTLY MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT AN IMPROVING TREND OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY 3 AM
MOST PLACES AND 4-5 AM CAPE AND ISLANDS. MOST AREAS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...WTB/BELK/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE CENTRAL HILLS...THE HILL
COUNTRY FROM NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY TO NORTHEAST CT AND
NORTHWEST RI. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN GENERAL...AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
COATING TO 2 INCHES WITH A FEW SPOTS NEAR 3 INCHES.

RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE HEAVIEST PCPN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH RI
AND OFFSHORE. EXPECT REMAINING LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 2-3 AM. LAST TO GO WILL BE THE ISLANDS
AND CAPE COD...POSSIBLY A LITTLE LATER THAN 3 AM. SOME LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SNOW IS
OVER THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PREVIOUS AMOUNTS WERE A LITTLE MORE
THAN A COATING.

PRESSURE RISES OVER NEW ENGLAND HAVE BEEN UP TO 4 MB PER 3 HOURS
WHICH IS ENOUGH TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT AND
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS OVERNIGHT. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...VFR NORTH AND MOSTLY MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT AN IMPROVING TREND OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY 3 AM
MOST PLACES AND 4-5 AM CAPE AND ISLANDS. MOST AREAS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...WTB/BELK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE CENTRAL HILLS...THE HILL
COUNTRY FROM NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY TO NORTHEAST CT AND
NORTHWEST RI. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN GENERAL...AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
COATING TO 2 INCHES WITH A FEW SPOTS NEAR 3 INCHES.

RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE HEAVIEST PCPN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH RI
AND OFFSHORE. EXPECT REMAINING LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 2-3 AM. LAST TO GO WILL BE THE ISLANDS
AND CAPE COD...POSSIBLY A LITTLE LATER THAN 3 AM. SOME LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SNOW IS
OVER THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PREVIOUS AMOUNTS WERE A LITTLE MORE
THAN A COATING.

PRESSURE RISES OVER NEW ENGLAND HAVE BEEN UP TO 4 MB PER 3 HOURS
WHICH IS ENOUGH TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT AND
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS OVERNIGHT. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...VFR NORTH AND MOSTLY MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT AN IMPROVING TREND OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY 3 AM
MOST PLACES AND 4-5 AM CAPE AND ISLANDS. MOST AREAS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...WTB/BELK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE CENTRAL HILLS...THE HILL
COUNTRY FROM NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY TO NORTHEAST CT AND
NORTHWEST RI. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN GENERAL...AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
COATING TO 2 INCHES WITH A FEW SPOTS NEAR 3 INCHES.

RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE HEAVIEST PCPN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH RI
AND OFFSHORE. EXPECT REMAINING LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 2-3 AM. LAST TO GO WILL BE THE ISLANDS
AND CAPE COD...POSSIBLY A LITTLE LATER THAN 3 AM. SOME LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SNOW IS
OVER THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PREVIOUS AMOUNTS WERE A LITTLE MORE
THAN A COATING.

PRESSURE RISES OVER NEW ENGLAND HAVE BEEN UP TO 4 MB PER 3 HOURS
WHICH IS ENOUGH TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT AND
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS OVERNIGHT. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...VFR NORTH AND MOSTLY MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT AN IMPROVING TREND OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY 3 AM
MOST PLACES AND 4-5 AM CAPE AND ISLANDS. MOST AREAS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...WTB/BELK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE CENTRAL HILLS...THE HILL
COUNTRY FROM NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY TO NORTHEAST CT AND
NORTHWEST RI. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN GENERAL...AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
COATING TO 2 INCHES WITH A FEW SPOTS NEAR 3 INCHES.

RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE HEAVIEST PCPN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH RI
AND OFFSHORE. EXPECT REMAINING LIGHT SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY 2-3 AM. LAST TO GO WILL BE THE ISLANDS
AND CAPE COD...POSSIBLY A LITTLE LATER THAN 3 AM. SOME LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SNOW IS
OVER THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PREVIOUS AMOUNTS WERE A LITTLE MORE
THAN A COATING.

PRESSURE RISES OVER NEW ENGLAND HAVE BEEN UP TO 4 MB PER 3 HOURS
WHICH IS ENOUGH TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT AND
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS OVERNIGHT. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...VFR NORTH AND MOSTLY MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT AN IMPROVING TREND OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY 3 AM
MOST PLACES AND 4-5 AM CAPE AND ISLANDS. MOST AREAS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...WTB/BELK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
757 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING ENDING OF SNOWFALL THIS EVENING.
LATEST ESTIMATE IS BETWEEN 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT. LAV GUIDANCE
APPEARED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS TIMING.

OTERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE REST OF THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST
TO BRING THINGS BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW AND NMM...ALL DEPICT
THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR CIGS MAINLY EASTERN MA. LIGHT SNOW MAY NOT TOTALLY END
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK ALONG THE RI COAST AND SE COASTAL MA.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...BELK/GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...BELK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
757 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING ENDING OF SNOWFALL THIS EVENING.
LATEST ESTIMATE IS BETWEEN 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT. LAV GUIDANCE
APPEARED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS TIMING.

OTERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE REST OF THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST
TO BRING THINGS BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW AND NMM...ALL DEPICT
THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR CIGS MAINLY EASTERN MA. LIGHT SNOW MAY NOT TOTALLY END
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK ALONG THE RI COAST AND SE COASTAL MA.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...BELK/GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...BELK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
757 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING ENDING OF SNOWFALL THIS EVENING.
LATEST ESTIMATE IS BETWEEN 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT. LAV GUIDANCE
APPEARED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS TIMING.

OTERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE REST OF THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST
TO BRING THINGS BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW AND NMM...ALL DEPICT
THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR CIGS MAINLY EASTERN MA. LIGHT SNOW MAY NOT TOTALLY END
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK ALONG THE RI COAST AND SE COASTAL MA.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...BELK/GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...BELK/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
757 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING ENDING OF SNOWFALL THIS EVENING.
LATEST ESTIMATE IS BETWEEN 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT. LAV GUIDANCE
APPEARED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS TIMING.

OTERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE REST OF THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST
TO BRING THINGS BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW AND NMM...ALL DEPICT
THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR CIGS MAINLY EASTERN MA. LIGHT SNOW MAY NOT TOTALLY END
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK ALONG THE RI COAST AND SE COASTAL MA.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...BELK/GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...BELK/GAF




000
FXUS61 KALY 282342
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
742 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TONIGHT. SOME EVENING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR LATER
TONIGHT. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW HAS REGENERATED
YET AGAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS
AREA OF SNOW MAY BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DUE IN PART TO MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AS LOW LEVEL
NORTH WINDS COMING DOWN FROM THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INTERSECT THE REMNANT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS TRAVERSING THROUGH THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
ERODE FROM NW TO SE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS
AREA OF SNOW MAY REACH PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TACONICS AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN 9-11 PM. SO...HAVE BOOSTED
POPS IN THESE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER ONE HALF OF
AN INCH NEAR AND TO THE N/W OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND UP TO AN
INCH OR SLIGHTLY GREATER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.

MEANWHILE...LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CO CT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD CO. THIS IS DUE TO INCREASING
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THIS REGION. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS SE DUTCHESS CO AND AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF LITCHFIELD CO FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM W TO E AFTER 9 OR 10 PM. DURING THIS TIME...UP
TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
CO...MAINLY ON COLDER SURFACES...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS WHERE THE SNOW PERSISTS LONGEST. FURTHER
NORTH...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMTS THIS EVENING IN LITCHFIELD CO
SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN UNDER ONE HALF INCH.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND THE
DYNAMICS WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS REMAINS
IN QUESTION. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY MILDER SIDE OF MAV/MET
MOS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS...ALBEIT STILL VERY COLD...WITH FORECAST
MINS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 282342
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
742 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TONIGHT. SOME EVENING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR LATER
TONIGHT. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW HAS REGENERATED
YET AGAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS
AREA OF SNOW MAY BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DUE IN PART TO MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AS LOW LEVEL
NORTH WINDS COMING DOWN FROM THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INTERSECT THE REMNANT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS TRAVERSING THROUGH THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
ERODE FROM NW TO SE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS
AREA OF SNOW MAY REACH PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TACONICS AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN 9-11 PM. SO...HAVE BOOSTED
POPS IN THESE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER ONE HALF OF
AN INCH NEAR AND TO THE N/W OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND UP TO AN
INCH OR SLIGHTLY GREATER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.

MEANWHILE...LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CO CT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD CO. THIS IS DUE TO INCREASING
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THIS REGION. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS SE DUTCHESS CO AND AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF LITCHFIELD CO FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM W TO E AFTER 9 OR 10 PM. DURING THIS TIME...UP
TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
CO...MAINLY ON COLDER SURFACES...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS WHERE THE SNOW PERSISTS LONGEST. FURTHER
NORTH...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMTS THIS EVENING IN LITCHFIELD CO
SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN UNDER ONE HALF INCH.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND THE
DYNAMICS WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS REMAINS
IN QUESTION. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY MILDER SIDE OF MAV/MET
MOS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS...ALBEIT STILL VERY COLD...WITH FORECAST
MINS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 282342
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
742 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TONIGHT. SOME EVENING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR LATER
TONIGHT. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW HAS REGENERATED
YET AGAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS
AREA OF SNOW MAY BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DUE IN PART TO MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AS LOW LEVEL
NORTH WINDS COMING DOWN FROM THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INTERSECT THE REMNANT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS TRAVERSING THROUGH THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
ERODE FROM NW TO SE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS
AREA OF SNOW MAY REACH PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TACONICS AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN 9-11 PM. SO...HAVE BOOSTED
POPS IN THESE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER ONE HALF OF
AN INCH NEAR AND TO THE N/W OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND UP TO AN
INCH OR SLIGHTLY GREATER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.

MEANWHILE...LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CO CT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD CO. THIS IS DUE TO INCREASING
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THIS REGION. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS SE DUTCHESS CO AND AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF LITCHFIELD CO FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM W TO E AFTER 9 OR 10 PM. DURING THIS TIME...UP
TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
CO...MAINLY ON COLDER SURFACES...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS WHERE THE SNOW PERSISTS LONGEST. FURTHER
NORTH...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMTS THIS EVENING IN LITCHFIELD CO
SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN UNDER ONE HALF INCH.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND THE
DYNAMICS WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS REMAINS
IN QUESTION. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY MILDER SIDE OF MAV/MET
MOS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS...ALBEIT STILL VERY COLD...WITH FORECAST
MINS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 282342
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
742 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TONIGHT. SOME EVENING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR LATER
TONIGHT. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW HAS REGENERATED
YET AGAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS
AREA OF SNOW MAY BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DUE IN PART TO MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AS LOW LEVEL
NORTH WINDS COMING DOWN FROM THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
INTERSECT THE REMNANT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS TRAVERSING THROUGH THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
ERODE FROM NW TO SE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS
AREA OF SNOW MAY REACH PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TACONICS AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BETWEEN 9-11 PM. SO...HAVE BOOSTED
POPS IN THESE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER ONE HALF OF
AN INCH NEAR AND TO THE N/W OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND UP TO AN
INCH OR SLIGHTLY GREATER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.

MEANWHILE...LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CO CT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD CO. THIS IS DUE TO INCREASING
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THIS REGION. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS SE DUTCHESS CO AND AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF LITCHFIELD CO FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM W TO E AFTER 9 OR 10 PM. DURING THIS TIME...UP
TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
CO...MAINLY ON COLDER SURFACES...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS WHERE THE SNOW PERSISTS LONGEST. FURTHER
NORTH...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMTS THIS EVENING IN LITCHFIELD CO
SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN UNDER ONE HALF INCH.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND THE
DYNAMICS WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS REMAINS
IN QUESTION. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY MILDER SIDE OF MAV/MET
MOS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS...ALBEIT STILL VERY COLD...WITH FORECAST
MINS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z/SUN IN THE VICINITY OF KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR BEFORE IT
TAPERS OFF.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/MON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...INITIALLY
AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE
WEST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER SUNDAY...AT
5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 282102
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
502 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TONIGHT. SOME EVENING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR LATER
TONIGHT. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...WHILE SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST ELSEWHERE.

MEANWHILE...LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO CT. IN FACT...THE OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST
HOUR. THIS IS DUE TO INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THIS REGION.
SO...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CO FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM W TO E AFTER 7 OR 8 PM. DURING THIS TIME...AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ON COLDER
SURFACES...AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MOST OF THE DAY...LITTLE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATED DUE TO THE RATHER HIGH SUN ANGLE BEHIND THE
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...AS THE SUN SETS...ANY LINGERING SNOW THAT FALLS
WILL BE MORE PRONE TO ACCUMULATING.

FURTHER N AND W...SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET BEFORE DISSIPATING. AN ADDITIONAL
COATING TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR WHERE ANY SNOW SHOWERS
PERSIST...AGAIN MOST LIKELY ON COLDER SURFACES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND THE DYNAMICS
WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN FROM NW TO
SE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY MILDER SIDE OF MAV/MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS...ALBEIT STILL VERY COLD...WITH FORECAST MINS MAINLY
IN THE TEENS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 282102
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
502 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TONIGHT. SOME EVENING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR LATER
TONIGHT. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 445 PM EDT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...WHILE SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST ELSEWHERE.

MEANWHILE...LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO CT. IN FACT...THE OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST
HOUR. THIS IS DUE TO INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THIS REGION.
SO...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CO FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM W TO E AFTER 7 OR 8 PM. DURING THIS TIME...AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP ON COLDER
SURFACES...AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MOST OF THE DAY...LITTLE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATED DUE TO THE RATHER HIGH SUN ANGLE BEHIND THE
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...AS THE SUN SETS...ANY LINGERING SNOW THAT FALLS
WILL BE MORE PRONE TO ACCUMULATING.

FURTHER N AND W...SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET BEFORE DISSIPATING. AN ADDITIONAL
COATING TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR WHERE ANY SNOW SHOWERS
PERSIST...AGAIN MOST LIKELY ON COLDER SURFACES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND THE DYNAMICS
WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN FROM NW TO
SE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY MILDER SIDE OF MAV/MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS...ALBEIT STILL VERY COLD...WITH FORECAST MINS MAINLY
IN THE TEENS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN
TODAY...REACHING 35-40 IN VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...MAKING IT FEEL
SLIGHTLY COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD LATER SUN EVENING...WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN THESE AREAS...A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEY AREAS...GENERALLY ONLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAYBREAK MON.

MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING. SOME LINGERING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. MILDER AIR IS THEN POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND 1-2 INCHES SLIGHTLY
FURTHER S AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH FURTHER S
TOWARD INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES MON AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALONG WITH SOME GRAUPEL. IN
ADDITION...ANY TALLER SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WINDS SHOULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 35-45 MPH. TEMPS MAY SURGE
UPWARD IN SOME VALLEY AREAS MON AFTN...INTO THE 40S OR LOWER
50S...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

MON NT...COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING AND A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE...ESP WITHIN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAYBREAK TUE.

TUE...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THEN...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME PRECIP FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SMALL FEATURE...AND
DEGREE TO WHICH MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FEATURE EXHIBIT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATING CHC POPS
FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT WET
BULB COOLING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER RAPIDLY WITH ANY
PRECIP ONSET AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  TUESDAY NIGHT
STARTS OFF ON THE DRY SIDE.  LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE
DELMARVA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO REACH
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF INTERCHANGEABLE
RAIN AND SNOW...OR A MIX...WITH AREAS OF SLEET AT TIMES MIXED IN
AT TIMES...ALL DEPENDENT UPON TIME OF DAY...ELEVATION...STORM
TRACK AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES.
SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH
WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE... AND RIVER ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282044
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
444 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW AND NMM...ALL DEPICT
THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR CIGS MAINLY EASTERN MA. LIGHT SNOW MAY NOT TOTALLY END
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK ALONG THE RI COAST AND SE COASTAL MA.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...BELK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282044
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
444 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW AND NMM...ALL DEPICT
THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR CIGS MAINLY EASTERN MA. LIGHT SNOW MAY NOT TOTALLY END
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK ALONG THE RI COAST AND SE COASTAL MA.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...BELK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282044
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
444 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW AND NMM...ALL DEPICT
THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR CIGS MAINLY EASTERN MA. LIGHT SNOW MAY NOT TOTALLY END
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK ALONG THE RI COAST AND SE COASTAL MA.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...BELK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282044
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
444 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW AND NMM...ALL DEPICT
THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR CIGS MAINLY EASTERN MA. LIGHT SNOW MAY NOT TOTALLY END
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK ALONG THE RI COAST AND SE COASTAL MA.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...BELK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282044
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
444 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW AND NMM...ALL DEPICT
THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR CIGS MAINLY EASTERN MA. LIGHT SNOW MAY NOT TOTALLY END
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK ALONG THE RI COAST AND SE COASTAL MA.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...BELK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282044
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
444 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW AND NMM...ALL DEPICT
THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR CIGS MAINLY EASTERN MA. LIGHT SNOW MAY NOT TOTALLY END
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK ALONG THE RI COAST AND SE COASTAL MA.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...BELK/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282028
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY
APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW-EAST AND NMM... ALL
DEPICT THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR CIGS MAINLY EASTERN MA. LIGHT SNOW MAY NOT TOTALLY END
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK ALONG THE RI COAST AND SE COASTAL MA.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT NEAR 20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

MONDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SEAS. SCA MAY BE
NEEDED.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS
WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIELD/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FIELD
SHORT TERM...FIELD
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FIELD/DUNTEN
MARINE...FIELD/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282028
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY
APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW-EAST AND NMM... ALL
DEPICT THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR CIGS MAINLY EASTERN MA. LIGHT SNOW MAY NOT TOTALLY END
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK ALONG THE RI COAST AND SE COASTAL MA.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT NEAR 20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

MONDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SEAS. SCA MAY BE
NEEDED.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS
WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIELD/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FIELD
SHORT TERM...FIELD
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FIELD/DUNTEN
MARINE...FIELD/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282004
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW-EAST AND NMM... ALL
DEPICT THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN ON NANTUCKET...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. LOCAL IFR CIGS
IN RI AND EASTERN MA.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...DUNTEN/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282004
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW-EAST AND NMM... ALL
DEPICT THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN ON NANTUCKET...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. LOCAL IFR CIGS
IN RI AND EASTERN MA.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...DUNTEN/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282004
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW-EAST AND NMM... ALL
DEPICT THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN ON NANTUCKET...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. LOCAL IFR CIGS
IN RI AND EASTERN MA.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...DUNTEN/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282004
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW-EAST AND NMM... ALL
DEPICT THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN ON NANTUCKET...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. LOCAL IFR CIGS
IN RI AND EASTERN MA.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...DUNTEN/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH STILL ON TRACK. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW 2-INCH
REPORTS BUT MAINLY FROM GRASSY SURFACES AND NOT PAVEMENT. BAND OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STRETCHED ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AS OF 2 PM BUT THERE WERE OTHER BANDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW COVERING MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE ARE
WATCHING AN INCREASING AREA OF SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS AREA MOVING
EASTWARD INTO RI AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN 3 PM
AND 6 PM. THEN...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
SOUTH COASTS OF RI AND MA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL BELOW FREEZING TOWARD EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST MA AND RI...SO SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SNOW STICKING TO
ROAD SURFACES.

OVERALL STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN ON NANTUCKET...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. LOCAL IFR CIGS
IN RI AND EASTERN MA.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB/GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH STILL ON TRACK. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW 2-INCH
REPORTS BUT MAINLY FROM GRASSY SURFACES AND NOT PAVEMENT. BAND OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STRETCHED ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AS OF 2 PM BUT THERE WERE OTHER BANDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW COVERING MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE ARE
WATCHING AN INCREASING AREA OF SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS AREA MOVING
EASTWARD INTO RI AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN 3 PM
AND 6 PM. THEN...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
SOUTH COASTS OF RI AND MA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL BELOW FREEZING TOWARD EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST MA AND RI...SO SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SNOW STICKING TO
ROAD SURFACES.

OVERALL STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN ON NANTUCKET...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. LOCAL IFR CIGS
IN RI AND EASTERN MA.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB/GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH STILL ON TRACK. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW 2-INCH
REPORTS BUT MAINLY FROM GRASSY SURFACES AND NOT PAVEMENT. BAND OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STRETCHED ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AS OF 2 PM BUT THERE WERE OTHER BANDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW COVERING MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE ARE
WATCHING AN INCREASING AREA OF SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS AREA MOVING
EASTWARD INTO RI AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN 3 PM
AND 6 PM. THEN...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
SOUTH COASTS OF RI AND MA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL BELOW FREEZING TOWARD EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST MA AND RI...SO SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SNOW STICKING TO
ROAD SURFACES.

OVERALL STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN ON NANTUCKET...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. LOCAL IFR CIGS
IN RI AND EASTERN MA.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB/GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH STILL ON TRACK. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW 2-INCH
REPORTS BUT MAINLY FROM GRASSY SURFACES AND NOT PAVEMENT. BAND OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STRETCHED ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AS OF 2 PM BUT THERE WERE OTHER BANDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW COVERING MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE ARE
WATCHING AN INCREASING AREA OF SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS AREA MOVING
EASTWARD INTO RI AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN 3 PM
AND 6 PM. THEN...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
SOUTH COASTS OF RI AND MA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL BELOW FREEZING TOWARD EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST MA AND RI...SO SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SNOW STICKING TO
ROAD SURFACES.

OVERALL STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN ON NANTUCKET...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. LOCAL IFR CIGS
IN RI AND EASTERN MA.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB/GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH STILL ON TRACK. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW 2-INCH
REPORTS BUT MAINLY FROM GRASSY SURFACES AND NOT PAVEMENT. BAND OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STRETCHED ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AS OF 2 PM BUT THERE WERE OTHER BANDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW COVERING MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE ARE
WATCHING AN INCREASING AREA OF SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS AREA MOVING
EASTWARD INTO RI AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN 3 PM
AND 6 PM. THEN...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
SOUTH COASTS OF RI AND MA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL BELOW FREEZING TOWARD EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST MA AND RI...SO SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SNOW STICKING TO
ROAD SURFACES.

OVERALL STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN ON NANTUCKET...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. LOCAL IFR CIGS
IN RI AND EASTERN MA.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB/GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF



000
FXUS61 KALY 281748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND TURNING QUITE COLD
ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...SNOW HAS BECOME MORE PATCHY/INTERMITTENT ACROSS
THE REGION...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST AREAS WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO MOISTURE AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
CONTINUES TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO...THE
SNOW MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE A BIT ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LITCHFIELD CO...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRES. IN THESE
AREAS...A FEW ADDITIONAL BURSTS OF SNOW MAY ALLOW FOR 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER AN INCH...AND LIMITED PRIMARILY TO
COLDER...NONPAVEMENT SURFACES.

IN BETWEEN THE PATCHES OF SNOW...SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OCCASIONAL DIM SUNSHINE.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS ESP IN ANY AREAS WHERE BRIEF
GLIMPSES OF SUN OCCUR. EXPECT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER
PEAKS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS MAY ONLY REACH BETWEEN 10 AND
15 DEGREES.

WINDS WILL BE BRISK AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
FURTHER N AND W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPEL AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON FOR THE KALB/KPSF/KPOU TERMINALS. SNOW HAS REMAINED
SOUTH OF KGFL AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRECLUDE SNOWFALL. BATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW ARE ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SNOW BECOMES MORE
SPORADIC.

EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THIS
EVENING...ENDING THE SNOWFALL. KPSF WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST SITE
TO SEE SNOW END. THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS...DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE
RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. RIVERS WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN
PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT
AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 281748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND TURNING QUITE COLD
ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...SNOW HAS BECOME MORE PATCHY/INTERMITTENT ACROSS
THE REGION...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST AREAS WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO MOISTURE AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
CONTINUES TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO...THE
SNOW MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE A BIT ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LITCHFIELD CO...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRES. IN THESE
AREAS...A FEW ADDITIONAL BURSTS OF SNOW MAY ALLOW FOR 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER AN INCH...AND LIMITED PRIMARILY TO
COLDER...NONPAVEMENT SURFACES.

IN BETWEEN THE PATCHES OF SNOW...SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OCCASIONAL DIM SUNSHINE.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS ESP IN ANY AREAS WHERE BRIEF
GLIMPSES OF SUN OCCUR. EXPECT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER
PEAKS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS MAY ONLY REACH BETWEEN 10 AND
15 DEGREES.

WINDS WILL BE BRISK AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
FURTHER N AND W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPEL AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON FOR THE KALB/KPSF/KPOU TERMINALS. SNOW HAS REMAINED
SOUTH OF KGFL AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRECLUDE SNOWFALL. BATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW ARE ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SNOW BECOMES MORE
SPORADIC.

EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THIS
EVENING...ENDING THE SNOWFALL. KPSF WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST SITE
TO SEE SNOW END. THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS...DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE
RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. RIVERS WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN
PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT
AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND TURNING QUITE COLD
ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...SNOW HAS BECOME MORE PATCHY/INTERMITTENT ACROSS
THE REGION...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST AREAS WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO MOISTURE AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
CONTINUES TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO...THE
SNOW MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE A BIT ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LITCHFIELD CO...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRES. IN THESE
AREAS...A FEW ADDITIONAL BURSTS OF SNOW MAY ALLOW FOR 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER AN INCH...AND LIMITED PRIMARILY TO
COLDER...NONPAVEMENT SURFACES.

IN BETWEEN THE PATCHES OF SNOW...SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OCCASIONAL DIM SUNSHINE.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS ESP IN ANY AREAS WHERE BRIEF
GLIMPSES OF SUN OCCUR. EXPECT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER
PEAKS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS MAY ONLY REACH BETWEEN 10 AND
15 DEGREES.

WINDS WILL BE BRISK AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
FURTHER N AND W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPEL AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON FOR THE KALB/KPSF/KPOU TERMINALS. SNOW HAS REMAINED
SOUTH OF KGFL AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRECLUDE SNOWFALL. BATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW ARE ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SNOW BECOMES MORE
SPORADIC.

EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THIS
EVENING...ENDING THE SNOWFALL. KPSF WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST SITE
TO SEE SNOW END. THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS...DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE
RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. RIVERS WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN
PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT
AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND TURNING QUITE COLD
ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...SNOW HAS BECOME MORE PATCHY/INTERMITTENT ACROSS
THE REGION...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST AREAS WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO MOISTURE AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
CONTINUES TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO...THE
SNOW MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE A BIT ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LITCHFIELD CO...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRES. IN THESE
AREAS...A FEW ADDITIONAL BURSTS OF SNOW MAY ALLOW FOR 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER AN INCH...AND LIMITED PRIMARILY TO
COLDER...NONPAVEMENT SURFACES.

IN BETWEEN THE PATCHES OF SNOW...SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OCCASIONAL DIM SUNSHINE.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS ESP IN ANY AREAS WHERE BRIEF
GLIMPSES OF SUN OCCUR. EXPECT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER
PEAKS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS MAY ONLY REACH BETWEEN 10 AND
15 DEGREES.

WINDS WILL BE BRISK AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
FURTHER N AND W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPEL AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON FOR THE KALB/KPSF/KPOU TERMINALS. SNOW HAS REMAINED
SOUTH OF KGFL AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRECLUDE SNOWFALL. BATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW ARE ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SNOW BECOMES MORE
SPORADIC.

EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THIS
EVENING...ENDING THE SNOWFALL. KPSF WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST SITE
TO SEE SNOW END. THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS...DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE
RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. RIVERS WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN
PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT
AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND TURNING QUITE COLD
ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...SNOW HAS BECOME MORE PATCHY/INTERMITTENT ACROSS
THE REGION...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST AREAS WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO MOISTURE AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
CONTINUES TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO...THE
SNOW MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE A BIT ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LITCHFIELD CO...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRES. IN THESE
AREAS...A FEW ADDITIONAL BURSTS OF SNOW MAY ALLOW FOR 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER AN INCH...AND LIMITED PRIMARILY TO
COLDER...NONPAVEMENT SURFACES.

IN BETWEEN THE PATCHES OF SNOW...SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OCCASIONAL DIM SUNSHINE.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS ESP IN ANY AREAS WHERE BRIEF
GLIMPSES OF SUN OCCUR. EXPECT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER
PEAKS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS MAY ONLY REACH BETWEEN 10 AND
15 DEGREES.

WINDS WILL BE BRISK AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
FURTHER N AND W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPEL AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON FOR THE KALB/KPSF/KPOU TERMINALS. SNOW HAS REMAINED
SOUTH OF KGFL AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRECLUDE SNOWFALL. BATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW ARE ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SNOW BECOMES MORE
SPORADIC.

EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THIS
EVENING...ENDING THE SNOWFALL. KPSF WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST SITE
TO SEE SNOW END. THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS...DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE
RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. RIVERS WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN
PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT
AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND TURNING QUITE COLD
ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...SNOW HAS BECOME MORE PATCHY/INTERMITTENT ACROSS
THE REGION...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST AREAS WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO MOISTURE AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
CONTINUES TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO...THE
SNOW MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE A BIT ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LITCHFIELD CO...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRES. IN THESE
AREAS...A FEW ADDITIONAL BURSTS OF SNOW MAY ALLOW FOR 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER AN INCH...AND LIMITED PRIMARILY TO
COLDER...NONPAVEMENT SURFACES.

IN BETWEEN THE PATCHES OF SNOW...SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OCCASIONAL DIM SUNSHINE.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS ESP IN ANY AREAS WHERE BRIEF
GLIMPSES OF SUN OCCUR. EXPECT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER
PEAKS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS MAY ONLY REACH BETWEEN 10 AND
15 DEGREES.

WINDS WILL BE BRISK AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
FURTHER N AND W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPEL AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WITH IFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON FOR THE KALB/KPSF/KPOU TERMINALS. SNOW HAS REMAINED
SOUTH OF KGFL AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRECLUDE SNOWFALL. BATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW ARE ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SNOW BECOMES MORE
SPORADIC.

EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THIS
EVENING...ENDING THE SNOWFALL. KPSF WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST SITE
TO SEE SNOW END. THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS...DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE
RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. RIVERS WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN
PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT
AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND TURNING QUITE COLD
ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...SNOW HAS BECOME MORE PATCHY/INTERMITTENT ACROSS
THE REGION...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST AREAS WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO MOISTURE AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
CONTINUES TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO...THE
SNOW MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE A BIT ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LITCHFIELD CO...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRES. IN THESE
AREAS...A FEW ADDITIONAL BURSTS OF SNOW MAY ALLOW FOR 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER AN INCH...AND LIMITED PRIMARILY TO
COLDER...NONPAVEMENT SURFACES.

IN BETWEEN THE PATCHES OF SNOW...SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OCCASIONAL DIM SUNSHINE.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS ESP IN ANY AREAS WHERE BRIEF
GLIMPSES OF SUN OCCUR. EXPECT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER
PEAKS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS MAY ONLY REACH BETWEEN 10 AND
15 DEGREES.

WINDS WILL BE BRISK AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
FURTHER N AND W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPEL AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...AND AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN
MVFR AND IFR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KPSF. AT KPOU CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE
VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 23Z CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPOU/KALB WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AT KPSF IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE
RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. RIVERS WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN
PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT
AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND TURNING QUITE COLD
ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...SNOW HAS BECOME MORE PATCHY/INTERMITTENT ACROSS
THE REGION...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST AREAS WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO MOISTURE AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
CONTINUES TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO...THE
SNOW MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE A BIT ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LITCHFIELD CO...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRES. IN THESE
AREAS...A FEW ADDITIONAL BURSTS OF SNOW MAY ALLOW FOR 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER AN INCH...AND LIMITED PRIMARILY TO
COLDER...NONPAVEMENT SURFACES.

IN BETWEEN THE PATCHES OF SNOW...SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OCCASIONAL DIM SUNSHINE.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS ESP IN ANY AREAS WHERE BRIEF
GLIMPSES OF SUN OCCUR. EXPECT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER
PEAKS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS MAY ONLY REACH BETWEEN 10 AND
15 DEGREES.

WINDS WILL BE BRISK AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
FURTHER N AND W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPEL AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...AND AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN
MVFR AND IFR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KPSF. AT KPOU CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE
VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 23Z CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPOU/KALB WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AT KPSF IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE
RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. RIVERS WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN
PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT
AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 281732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND TURNING QUITE COLD
ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...SNOW HAS BECOME MORE PATCHY/INTERMITTENT ACROSS
THE REGION...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST AREAS WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO MOISTURE AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
CONTINUES TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO...THE
SNOW MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE A BIT ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LITCHFIELD CO...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRES. IN THESE
AREAS...A FEW ADDITIONAL BURSTS OF SNOW MAY ALLOW FOR 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER AN INCH...AND LIMITED PRIMARILY TO
COLDER...NONPAVEMENT SURFACES.

IN BETWEEN THE PATCHES OF SNOW...SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OCCASIONAL DIM SUNSHINE.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS ESP IN ANY AREAS WHERE BRIEF
GLIMPSES OF SUN OCCUR. EXPECT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER
PEAKS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS MAY ONLY REACH BETWEEN 10 AND
15 DEGREES.

WINDS WILL BE BRISK AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
FURTHER N AND W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.

BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPEL AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...AND AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN
MVFR AND IFR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT KPSF. AT KPOU CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE
VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 23Z CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPOU/KALB WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AT KPSF IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE
RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A
FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.

SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. RIVERS WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP.

TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN
PLACE... AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT
AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 281732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND TURNING QUITE COLD
ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...SNOW HAS BECOME MORE PATCHY/INTERMITTENT ACROSS
THE REGION...AS DRIER AIR SEEPS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST AREAS WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO MOISTURE AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
CONTINUES TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO...THE
SNOW MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE A BIT ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LITCHFIELD CO...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERKSHIRES. IN THESE
AREAS...A FEW ADDITIONAL BURSTS OF SNOW MAY ALLOW FOR 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER AN INCH...AND LIMITED PRIMARILY TO
COLDER...NONPAVEMENT SURFACES.

IN BETWEEN THE PATCHES OF SNOW...SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME OCCASIONAL DIM SUNSHINE.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS ESP IN ANY AREAS WHERE BRIEF
GLIMPSES OF SUN OCCUR. EXPECT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER
PEAKS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS MAY ONLY REACH BETWEEN 10 AND
15 DEGREES.

WINDS WILL BE BRISK AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
FURTHER N AND W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...