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000
FXUS61 KALY 231444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY. THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS SOME E-SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES HAS LED TO SOME TOTALS REACHING
2.5-3 INCHES...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1 INCH ADDITIONAL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIELD...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE THROUGH 1030 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL NOON WHEN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN SHOULD FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS
FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
MOST HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER
50S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
LITCHFIELD CO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV







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000
FXUS61 KBOX 231418
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1018 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
* URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING...STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING *

FORECAST LARGELY IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO MATCH
CURRENT RADAR/OBS TRENDS. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOSED LOW S OF NEW
ENGLAND...WHICH WILL SLOWLY BRING SURFACE LOW SE OF NANTUCKET THIS
EVENING.

1) URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING

RADAR SHOWED MAIN BAND OF HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE...SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. FOCUS THROUGH MIDDAY WILL BE ACROSS SW NH AND W MA WHERE
SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED...BUT THIS SHOULD PUSH OUT
OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
MERRIMACK VALLEY WHERE FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN
POSTED AS WELL.

ACROSS REST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER
THROUGH AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING EVIDENCE OF THIS S OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD AFFECT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
WHERE MODELS SHOW FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ML/MU CAPE THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT NOT ENOUGH OF
WIDESPREAD THREAT TO KEEP FLOOD WATCH GOING.

2) STRONG WINDS:

STILL SEEING STRONG WINDS /NEAR 40KT/ FROM BOSTON TO NE MA. WIND
FIELD ALOFT DIMINISHES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINS HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ADVISORY GIVEN IMPACT ON FULLY LEAVED TREES.
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


3) COASTAL FLOODING:

SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY MOVES SEAWARD. HOWEVER LIGHTER COMMA-HEAD
RAINS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS.

FRIDAY...

FURTHER IMPROVEMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS COMMA-HEAD EXITS AND MOVES OFFSHORE. RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE HIGHEST IN THE MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE OF DRYING AND LATE DAY
SUNSHINE IS ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TODAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD. MARGINAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NE WINDS
CONTINUE WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MA. SOME
VFR CAPE/ISLANDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...

IFR EASTERN MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND WINDS SLOWLY EASING.

FRIDAY...

MVFR BUT TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LESS
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*** DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS ***

THIS AFTERNOON...

COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING NE GALES AND
DANGEROUS SEAS TO THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MA
INTO NH COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS NOT QUITE AS INTENSE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT NEVERTHELESS DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS.

HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MA WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...

LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES SEAWARD WITH WINDS BECOMING SUBGALE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALSO ANY LINGERING RAIN SQUALLS NOT AS
INTENSE AS THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW AND
SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

WE ARE NOW RAMPING UP TO THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
PRIOR STORM SURGE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE NOT CHANGED. AT
0945 EDT THE SURGE WAS RUNNING AT 2 FEET AT BOS...ABOUT TWICE AS
HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE. WAVES JUST OFFSHORE RUNNING 16 TO 18 FEET.
THE NNE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE RETIGHTENING FOR A PERIOD AS
ADVERTISED BY SHORT TERM MODELS AND THINK WAVES WILL HOLD AT
THESE HEIGHTS OR POSSIBLY EVEN INCREASE ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS ABOUT A HALF FOOT
HIGHER TODAY THAN LAST NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW WAVE ACTIVITY TO RUNUP
SOMEWHAT FURTHER ALONG THE BEACH. HENCE...THE IMPACT COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. ALSO...WE HAVE
THE ISSUE OF THIS BECOMING A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT WITH
CONTINUED EROSION OF THE DUNE SLOPES ALONG SANDY BEACH AREAS. WILL
KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN
AND HULL TO PLYMOUTH. OUR GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE BEACH
EROSION IN THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND AREA.

THERE MAY BE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG/JWD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
957 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
 STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TIDAL FLOODING INTO THU MORNING ***

7 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. UPDATED
TEMPS/DWPTS TO BRING THEM UP TO CURRENT TRENDS BUT OTHER ISSUES
REMAIN ON TRACK. WILL BE UPDATING FLOOD ADVISORY AND FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS. AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE N
SHORE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN
FRANKLIN COUNTY WHICH MAY YIELD SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING.

1)HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT...

DUAL POL HAS BEEN ESTIMATING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF ABOUT AN
INCH OR SO IN THE RAIN BAND OVER MA MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RADAR MAY
BE UNDER ESTIMATING GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS /PRECIP
DRIFT/. AS THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN MA
INTO SOUTHERN NH THIS MORNING. THUS WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION.

ELSEWHERE PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY AND NOT AS INTENSE. HOWEVER
ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WAS PIVOTING NORTHWARD AROUND
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THIS NEW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MAY CLIP
SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA LATER TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE LATER TODAY AS THIS
MORNING BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED T-STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN RI INTO SOUTHEAST MA. GIVEN THE RISK
OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS WITH THE
GREATEST RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH THIS MORNING.


2) STRONG WINDS:

KBOX RADAR INDICATES LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND
SHIFTED NORTHWARD. ELEVATED OBSERVING PLATFORMS SUCH AS ISLE OF
SHOALS OFF THE NH COASTLINE CONFIRMS THIS WITH NE WINDS CONTINUING
TO GUSTS OVER 50 KT! HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS HAVE SLACKENED A BIT
OVER THE REGION AS WIND TRAJECTORY AS SHIFTED FROM NE TO N DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT. THIS MORE LAND TRAJECTORY IS A MORE STABLE THAN
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER OCEAN ALONG WITH MORE FRICTION/DRAG.
HENCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE LESSENED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CORE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE CLOSEST TO NORTHEAST MA ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN/CONVECTION ENHANCING WIND THREAT FROM PRECIP DRAG WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ESSEX COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIND
SPEEDS APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE SPEEDS MAY FALL JUST SHY
OF CRITERIA...FULLY TO PARTIAL LEAVED TREES WILL INCREASE THE RISK
OF DOWN LIMBS AND BRANCHES. HENCE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY MOVES SEAWARD. HOWEVER LIGHTER COMMA-HEAD
RAINS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS.

FRIDAY...

FURTHER IMPROVEMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS COMMA-HEAD EXITS AND MOVES OFFSHORE. RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE HIGHEST IN THE MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE OF DRYING AND LATE DAY
SUNSHINE IS ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TODAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD. MARGINAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NE WINDS
CONTINUE WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MA. SOME
VFR CAPE/ISLANDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...

IFR EASTERN MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND WINDS SLOWLY EASING.

FRIDAY...

MVFR BUT TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LESS
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*** DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS ***

TODAY...

COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING NORTHEAST GALES AND
DANGEROUS SEAS TO THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MA
WATERS INTO NH COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS NOT QUITE AS
INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NEVERTHELESS DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS.
HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MA WATERS.

TONIGHT...

LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES SEAWARD WITH WINDS BECOMING SUBGALE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALSO ANY LINGERING RAIN SQUALLS NOT AS
INTENSE AS THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW AND
SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

WE ARE NOW RAMPING UP TO THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
PRIOR STORM SURGE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE NOT CHANGED. AT
0945 EDT THE SURGE WAS RUNNING AT 2 FEET AT BOS...ABOUT TWICE AS
HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE. WAVES JUST OFFSHORE RUNNING 16 TO 18 FEET.
THE NNE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE RETIGHTENING FOR A PERIOD AS
ADVERTISED BY SHORT TERM MODELS AND THINK WAVES WILL HOLD AT
THESE HEIGHTS OR POSSIBLY EVEN INCREASE ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS ABOUT A HALF FOOT
HIGHER TODAY THAN LAST NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW WAVE ACTIVITY TO RUNUP
SOMEWHAT FURTHER ALONG THE BEACH. HENCE...THE IMPACT COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. ALSO...WE HAVE
THE ISSUE OF THIS BECOMING A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT WITH
CONTINUED EROSION OF THE DUNE SLOPES ALONG SANDY BEACH AREAS. WILL
KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN
AND HULL TO PLYMOUTH. OUR GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE BEACH
EROSION IN THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND AREA.

THERE MAY BE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231132
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
732 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
 STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TIDAL FLOODING INTO THU MORNING ***

7 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. UPDATED
TEMPS/DWPTS TO BRING THEM UP TO CURRENT TRENDS BUT OTHER ISSUES
REMAIN ON TRACK. WILL BE UPDATING FLOOD ADVISORY AND FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS. AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE N
SHORE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN
FRANKLIN COUNTY WHICH MAY YIELD SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING.

1)HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT...

DUAL POL HAS BEEN ESTIMATING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF ABOUT AN
INCH OR SO IN THE RAIN BAND OVER MA MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RADAR MAY
BE UNDER ESTIMATING GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS /PRECIP
DRIFT/. AS THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN MA
INTO SOUTHERN NH THIS MORNING. THUS WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION.

ELSEWHERE PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY AND NOT AS INTENSE. HOWEVER
ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WAS PIVOTING NORTHWARD AROUND
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THIS NEW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MAY CLIP
SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA LATER TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE LATER TODAY AS THIS
MORNING BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED T-STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN RI INTO SOUTHEAST MA. GIVEN THE RISK
OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS WITH THE
GREATEST RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH THIS MORNING.


2) STRONG WINDS:

KBOX RADAR INDICATES LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND
SHIFTED NORTHWARD. ELEVATED OBSERVING PLATFORMS SUCH AS ISLE OF
SHOALS OFF THE NH COASTLINE CONFIRMS THIS WITH NE WINDS CONTINUING
TO GUSTS OVER 50 KT! HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS HAVE SLACKENED A BIT
OVER THE REGION AS WIND TRAJECTORY AS SHIFTED FROM NE TO N DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT. THIS MORE LAND TRAJECTORY IS A MORE STABLE THAN
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER OCEAN ALONG WITH MORE FRICTION/DRAG.
HENCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE LESSENED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CORE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE CLOSEST TO NORTHEAST MA ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN/CONVECTION ENHANCING WIND THREAT FROM PRECIP DRAG WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ESSEX COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIND
SPEEDS APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE SPEEDS MAY FALL JUST SHY
OF CRITERIA...FULLY TO PARTIAL LEAVED TREES WILL INCREASE THE RISK
OF DOWN LIMBS AND BRANCHES. HENCE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY MOVES SEAWARD. HOWEVER LIGHTER COMMA-HEAD
RAINS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS.

FRIDAY...

FURTHER IMPROVEMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS COMMA-HEAD EXITS AND MOVES OFFSHORE. RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE HIGHEST IN THE MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE OF DRYING AND LATE DAY
SUNSHINE IS ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TODAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD. MARGINAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NE WINDS
CONTINUE WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MA. SOME
VFR CAPE/ISLANDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...

IFR EASTERN MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND WINDS SLOWLY EASING.

FRIDAY...

MVFR BUT TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LESS
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*** DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS ***

TODAY...

COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING NORTHEAST GALES AND
DANGEROUS SEAS TO THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MA
WATERS INTO NH COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS NOT QUITE AS
INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NEVERTHELESS DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS.
HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MA WATERS.

TONIGHT...

LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES SEAWARD WITH WINDS BECOMING SUBGALE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALSO ANY LINGERING RAIN SQUALLS NOT AS
INTENSE AS THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW AND
SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

NEXT HIGH TIDE IS LATE THIS MORNING TOWARD MIDDAY. WHILE THIS
ASTRO TIDE IS ABOUT 0.5 FT HIGHER SURGE VALUES MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LESS THAN LAST EVENING. REASON BEING IS THAT WINDS HAVE BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY...LIMITING THE FETCH AND WAVE GROWTH SOMEWHAT. ALSO
THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE JET IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS MIDDAY
APPROACHES. SO WHILE THIS NEXT HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT 0.5 FT HIGHER...
THINKING WATER LEVELS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
IN ADDITION WAVE ACTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS GIVEN WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY LIMITING FETCH/WAVE GROWTH. HENCE IMPACTS REGARDING
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION AND EROSION SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING. AS A RESULT WILL NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING AND CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE CAPE ANN AREA NORTHWARD TO SALISBURY INCLUDING PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-
     013>022-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005-006-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 231131
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
731 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER
TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 645 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH
MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE
NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL
GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 231046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
646 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER
TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 645 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH
MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE
NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL
GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 230836
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
436 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
 STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TIDAL FLOODING INTO THU MORNING ***

415 AM UPDATE...

IMPRESSIVE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH ITS WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL RAINS AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION PINWHEELING FROM GEORGES BANK INTO
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NH...SLOWLY PIVOTING NORTHWEST. DETAILS
ON THE INDIVIDUAL STORM HAZARDS ARE BELOW.

1)HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT...

DUAL POL HAS BEEN ESTIMATING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF ABOUT AN
INCH OR SO IN THE RAIN BAND OVER MA MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RADAR MAY
BE UNDER ESTIMATING GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS /PRECIP
DRIFT/. AS THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN MA
INTO SOUTHERN NH THIS MORNING. THUS WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION.

ELSEWHERE PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY AND NOT AS INTENSE. HOWEVER
ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WAS PIVOTING NORTHWARD AROUND
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THIS NEW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MAY CLIP
SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA LATER TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE LATER TODAY AS THIS
MORNING BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED T-STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN RI INTO SOUTHEAST MA. GIVEN THE RISK
OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS WITH THE
GREATEST RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH THIS MORNING.


2) STRONG WINDS:

KBOX RADAR INDICATES LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND
SHIFTED NORTHWARD. ELEVATED OBSERVING PLATFORMS SUCH AS ISLE OF
SHOALS OFF THE NH COASTLINE CONFIRMS THIS WITH NE WINDS CONTINUING
TO GUSTS OVER 50 KT! HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS HAVE SLACKENED A BIT
OVER THE REGION AS WIND TRAJECTORY AS SHIFTED FROM NE TO N DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT. THIS MORE LAND TRAJECTORY IS A MORE STABLE THAN
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER OCEAN ALONG WITH MORE FRICTION/DRAG.
HENCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE LESSENED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CORE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE CLOSEST TO NORTHEAST MA ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN/CONVECTION ENHANCING WIND THREAT FROM PRECIP DRAG WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ESSEX COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIND
SPEEDS APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE SPEEDS MAY FALL JUST SHY
OF CRITERIA...FULLY TO PARTIAL LEAVED TREES WILL INCREASE THE RISK
OF DOWN LIMBS AND BRANCHES. HENCE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY MOVES SEAWARD. HOWEVER LIGHTER COMMA-HEAD
RAINS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS.

FRIDAY...

FURTHER IMPROVEMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS COMMA-HEAD EXITS AND MOVES OFFSHORE. RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE HIGHEST IN THE MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE OF DRYING AND LATE DAY
SUNSHINE IS ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

THRU 12Z...

BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS OVER CAPE COD
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT NORTHWARD
WITH TIME. STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS OVER
NORTHEAST MA. IFR PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...

BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS
NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD.
MARGINAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NE WINDS CONTINUE
WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

TONIGHT...

IFR EASTERN MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND WINDS SLOWLY EASING.

FRIDAY...

MVFR BUT TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LESS
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*** DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS ***

TODAY...

COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING NORTHEAST GALES AND
DANGEROUS SEAS TO THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MA
WATERS INTO NH COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS NOT QUITE AS
INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NEVERTHELESS DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS.
HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MA WATERS.

TONIGHT...

LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES SEAWARD WITH WINDS BECOMING SUBGALE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALSO ANY LINGERING RAIN SQUALLS NOT AS
INTENSE AS THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW AND
SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

NEXT HIGH TIDE IS LATE THIS MORNING TOWARD MIDDAY. WHILE THIS
ASTRO TIDE IS ABOUT 0.5 FT HIGHER SURGE VALUES MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LESS THAN LAST EVENING. REASON BEING IS THAT WINDS HAVE BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY...LIMITING THE FETCH AND WAVE GROWTH SOMEWHAT. ALSO
THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE JET IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS MIDDAY
APPROACHES. SO WHILE THIS NEXT HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT 0.5 FT HIGHER...
THINKING WATER LEVELS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
IN ADDITION WAVE ACTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS GIVEN WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY LIMITING FETCH/WAVE GROWTH. HENCE IMPACTS REGARDING
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION AND EROSION SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING. AS A RESULT WILL NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING AND CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE CAPE ANN AREA NORTHWARD TO SALISBURY INCLUDING PLUM ISLAND.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-
     013>022-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005-006-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KALY 230831
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
431 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST CONTINUE
TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY
STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A
CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TACONICS...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 4 AM. WILL LOWER
POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN
WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM
AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV












000
FXUS61 KALY 230814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST CONTINUE
TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY
STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A
CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TACONICS...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 4 AM. WILL LOWER
POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN
WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM
AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 230814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST CONTINUE
TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY
STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A
CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TACONICS...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 4 AM. WILL LOWER
POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN
WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM
AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV









000
FXUS61 KBOX 230609
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
209 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SQUALLS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN LESSENING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO
 DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING INTO
 THU MORNING ***

2 AM UPDATE...

IMPRESSIVE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WITH ITS WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL RAINS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION
PINWHEELING FROM GEORGES BANK NORTHWESTWARD INTO MASSACHUSETTS AND
SLOWLY PIVOTING NORTHWEST. HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONVECTION WITHIN
THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING
ACROSS EASTERN MA AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHEAST NH. THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH.

OCCLUDED LOW SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER QUEBEC
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NH/NORTHEAST MA/RI AND NORTHEAST CT. THIS LOW LEVEL JET
WILL REMAIN STRONG THRU 12Z AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS WIND HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.  EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=============================================================

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON THURSDAY.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WERE
EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS THAT WE OFTEN SEE
DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

&&


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

THRU 12Z...

BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS OVER CAPE COD
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT NORTHWARD
WITH TIME. STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS OVER
NORTHEAST MA. IFR PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...

BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS
NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD.
MARGINAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NE WINDS CONTINUE
WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

TONIGHT...

IFR EASTERN MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND WINDS SLOWLY EASING.

FRIDAY...

MVFR BUT TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LESS
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND STORM FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE
 INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN
20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS.
GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST. THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE AREA
NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA. A LONG DURATION OF
NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE EXPOSED BEACHES FROM SALISBURY TO PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ004.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     014>016-019.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-
     013>022-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005-006-012-
     013-017-018-020-021.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231>237-
     254>256.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 230544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT...UPDATED POPS/WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRENDS. STILL A LACK OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SO CUT BACK ON
POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS UPDATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS OCCURRING
RATHER SOUTH FORM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK.

BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
EMBEDDED BANDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES...TACONICS... AND
MID HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

A DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS
AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS












000
FXUS61 KALY 230543
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT...UPDATED POPS/WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRENDS. STILL A LACK OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SO CUT BACK ON
POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS UPDATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS OCCURRING
RATHER SOUTH FORM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK.

BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
EMBEDDED BANDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES...TACONICS... AND
MID HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

A DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS
AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS











000
FXUS61 KALY 230528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT...UPDATED POPS/WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRENDS. STILL A LACK OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SO CUT BACK ON
POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS UPDATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS OCCURRING
RATHER SOUTH FORM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK.

BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
EMBEDDED BANDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES...TACONICS... AND
MID HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

A DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS
AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 230203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS IN HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO
 DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING ***

10 PM UPDATE...

VERY IMPRESSIVE/VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE-JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND A
MID LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND ADVECTING INTO SOUTHEAST MA
AND RI. ON THE NOSE OF SHORT WAVE AND DRY SLOT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THIS HAS
BEEN SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT /LFQ OF
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK/ TO YIELD NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER EASTERN
CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
AND ADVECTING NW INTO EASTERN MA AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN NH TOWARD
MORNING.

STRONG WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS CONVECTION GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL
OF RI/EASTERN CT NORTHWARD INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MA. FARTHER WEST INTO CT RVR VLY OF CT AND MA WIND GUSTS
SHOULD BE NOT AS STRONG GIVEN CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN
FARTHER EAST OVER RI...EASTERN MA INTO SOUTHEAST NH. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE NEW CONVECTION SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SHOULD PIVOT NW INTO
EASTERN MA OVERNIGHT /POSSIBLY RI TOO/ AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST NH
TOWARD MORNING. THUS HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=============================================================

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON THURSDAY.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WERE
EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS THAT WE OFTEN SEE
DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...WITH 50 KT GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...INCLUDING AT
KBOS. LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND STORM FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE
 INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN
20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS.
GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST. THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE AREA
NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA. A LONG DURATION OF
NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE EXPOSED BEACHES FROM SALISBURY TO PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ004.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>022-
     026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005-006-012-013-
     017-018-020-021.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237-254>256.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS IN HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO
 DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING ***

10 PM UPDATE...

VERY IMPRESSIVE/VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE-JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND A
MID LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND ADVECTING INTO SOUTHEAST MA
AND RI. ON THE NOSE OF SHORT WAVE AND DRY SLOT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THIS HAS
BEEN SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT /LFQ OF
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK/ TO YIELD NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER EASTERN
CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
AND ADVECTING NW INTO EASTERN MA AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN NH TOWARD
MORNING.

STRONG WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS CONVECTION GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL
OF RI/EASTERN CT NORTHWARD INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MA. FARTHER WEST INTO CT RVR VLY OF CT AND MA WIND GUSTS
SHOULD BE NOT AS STRONG GIVEN CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN
FARTHER EAST OVER RI...EASTERN MA INTO SOUTHEAST NH. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE NEW CONVECTION SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SHOULD PIVOT NW INTO
EASTERN MA OVERNIGHT /POSSIBLY RI TOO/ AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST NH
TOWARD MORNING. THUS HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=============================================================

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON THURSDAY.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WERE
EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS THAT WE OFTEN SEE
DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...WITH 50 KT GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...INCLUDING AT
KBOS. LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND STORM FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE
 INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN
20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS.
GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST. THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE AREA
NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA. A LONG DURATION OF
NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE EXPOSED BEACHES FROM SALISBURY TO PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ004.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>022-
     026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005-006-012-013-
     017-018-020-021.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237-254>256.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 230152
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
952 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE
FA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER EMBEDDED BANDS NOW
MOVING TOWARDS THE HUDSON VALLEY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A
DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND
AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW
THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY
LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS
FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 230152
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
952 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE
FA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER EMBEDDED BANDS NOW
MOVING TOWARDS THE HUDSON VALLEY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A
DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND
AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW
THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY
LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS
FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 222326
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
726 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS COAST.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
  THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
  THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST ***

730 PM UPDATE...WINDS HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 51 MPH AT LOGAN AIRPORT IN BOSTON.
THEREFORE...HAVE UPGRADED THE WIND ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE IMMEDIATE MASSACHUSETTS COAST FROM PLYMOUTH UP TO ESSEX
COUNTY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ESSEX COUNTY COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER INLAND...HAVE
KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS BUT WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BECAUSE OF
THE FULLY LEAVED TREES...THE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO DO DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES.

RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
CURRENTLY ACROSS CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. EXPECT THESE HEAVIER BANDS TO CONTINUE
TO ROTATE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL LOW GETS CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

MAIN UPDATES WITH THIS PACKAGE WERE TO THE WINDS AND THE HAZARDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS RIGHT ON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON THURSDAY.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WERE
EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS THAT WE OFTEN SEE
DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...WITH 50 KT GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...INCLUDING AT
KBOS. LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND STORM FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE
 INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN
20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS.
GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST. THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE AREA
NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA. A LONG DURATION OF
NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE EXPOSED BEACHES FROM SALISBURY TO PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>022-
     026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005-006.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237-254>256.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 222309
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
709 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 222309
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
709 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 222212
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 222212
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 222029
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
429 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS COAST.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY/...

*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
  THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
  THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST ***

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON
THURSDAY.  GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS...WERE EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS
THAT WE OFTEN SEE DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH MAINLY MVFR IN THE INTERIOR.  LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVER SPREAD WESTERN SECTIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN ESSEX COUNTY.  LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  A PERIOD OF LLWS IS
LIKELY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE INTO
  THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN 20 FOOT
SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS. SCA
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE
ACTION OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY
WEAKENS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST.  THIS IS MAINLY FOR
THE AREA NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA.  A LONG DURATION
OF NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.  CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.  IN
ADDITION...SOME BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY ALONG THE EXPOSED BEACHES OF
SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>022-
     026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005>007-014>016-
     019.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222029
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
429 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS COAST.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY/...

*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
  THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
  THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST ***

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON
THURSDAY.  GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS...WERE EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS
THAT WE OFTEN SEE DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH MAINLY MVFR IN THE INTERIOR.  LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVER SPREAD WESTERN SECTIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN ESSEX COUNTY.  LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  A PERIOD OF LLWS IS
LIKELY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE INTO
  THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN 20 FOOT
SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS. SCA
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE
ACTION OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY
WEAKENS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST.  THIS IS MAINLY FOR
THE AREA NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA.  A LONG DURATION
OF NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.  CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.  IN
ADDITION...SOME BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY ALONG THE EXPOSED BEACHES OF
SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>022-
     026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005>007-014>016-
     019.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KALY 222000
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE VIRGINA CAPES/DELMARVA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND
AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING
AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW
THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY
LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS
FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE
RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 221805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INTENSIFYING COASTAL STORM. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

11 AM UPDATE...

*** A WINDSWEPT SOAKING RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING BEGINS LATE TODAY
    AND CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ***

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SHIELD OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER 4 OR 5 PM.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...WHICH SHOW THE SOAKING RAIN EXPANDING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEAST MA.  THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS TONIGHT.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY.
GIVEN MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNED TREE
LIMBS AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE EXACERBATED
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...WE DID ADD SOUTHERN BRISTOL/PLYMOUTH
COUNTIES TO THE PREVIOUS WATCH.  THIS WAS DONE TO INCLUDE
FALL RIVER AND NEW BEDFORD...WHICH ARE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO
URBAN FLOODING.  WHILE ODDS STILL FAVOR NORTHEAST MA RECEIVING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN...THERE ARE SILL A FEW WILD CARDS.  THE FIRST IS A
COASTAL FRONT THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA.  IN ADDITION...AS THE DRY SLOT APPROACHES
APPEARS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO RESULT IN
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THIS STORM WILL DELIVER A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS WE WILL SEE
BANDING SETUP LIKE WE OFTEN DO IN THE WINTER TIME.  THIS COMBINED
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...LIKELY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE PROJECTING.  THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS SETS UP...BUT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMING THE TROWAL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
TO 60 KT FROM THE GULF OF MAINE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDES
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY
WILL COMBINE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO YIELD A DEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE TROWAL AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE W-ARW HAS UP TO 4" OF
RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MA NORTHWEST-WARD INTO SOUTHERN NH. THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAINFALL
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND
MONADNOCKS. CONVERSELY MAY SEE SOME SHADOWING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ALONG WITH RISK OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION AND FFG ONLY AROUND 3 INCHES WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST NH.

IT WILL BE WINDY TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

THURSDAY...

BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE TROWAL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER DRY SLOT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NOT ONLY THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT ALSO WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ASSIST WITH THIS
SHIFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS DIFFERENCE IN TILT OF THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED SOMEWHAT. WITH
OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW DISPLAYING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT.
THEREFORE...GIVEN THIS BETTER AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND OF
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD BASELINE FOR THIS LONG
TERM UPDATE.

DEFINING THE LONG TERM...WILL INITIALLY BE THE EXITING CUTOFF AND
OCCLUSION. HOWEVER...AFTER BRIEF MESO-RIDGE YET ANOTHER ROBUST
WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL DRYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL FINALLY FORCE THE
STALLED UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND SFC LOW PRES TO BEGIN A SHIFT INTO
THE MARITIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THU NIGHT...CONTINUED -SHRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE REMNANT WARM CONVEYER REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AS WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SUCH THAT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI...WITH EVEN A FEW MORE
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE. THEREFORE..EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS STILL ON THE MILD SIDE AS DWPTS
REMAIN ELEVATED THU NIGHT...BUT HIGHS ON FRI MAY BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO DIMINISHING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. MAINLY UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
POTENTIAL FOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD HERE IS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WAVE DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. MAINLY NW FLOW...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT A BIT WARMER THANKS TO
H85 AVERAGING ABOUT +5C. MAY SEE SOME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN...
SECONDARY ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH LOW PRES
THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE /EVEN UNDER
NW FLOW/ FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FROPA. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY HEAVY SHOWERS GIVEN THE DRY NW FLOW. IN
FACT...SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THANKS TO ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TOWARD THE S COAST.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS COLD FROPA...SO WILL
LEAN TEMPS TOWARD A COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

MON AND TUE...
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES FINALLY IS ABLE
TO NOSE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE S. THIS ALLOWS GRADUAL WARMING
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE WARMING MAY YIELD H85
TEMPS NEAR +14C BY TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING TO YIELD TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 BY TUE.

WED...
GUIDANCE DIFFERS HERE ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
YIELDING SOLUTIONS OF A PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON WED...TO DURING
THE DAY ON THU. THEREFORE...MAY AT LEAST HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A SHOWER WITH THIS FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH MAINLY MVFR IN THE INTERIOR.  LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVER SPREAD WESTERN SECTIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN ESSEX COUNTY.  LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  A PERIOD OF LLWS IS
LIKELY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/FOG ARE
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.  MAINLY VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR. A PERIOD
OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE DAY SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS LIKELY TODAY AND
  TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ***

11 AM UPDATE...THE ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE BOSTON HARBOR
TO GALE WARNINGS BASED ON A STRONG NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET.

TODAY...NE GALES DEVELOP AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS AND
CONTINUING THE REMINDER OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...NE GALES LIKELY ACROSS CAPE ANN WATERS. SCA ELSEWHERE.
HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTM ALL WATERS.

THU...HEAVY RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXIT THE WATERS BY MIDDAY. NE WINDS
OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS SHOULD EASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY FRI...WITH SEAS RANGING 5-9FT
/HIGHEST AROUND CAPE ANN/ AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SRN WATERS OUT OF THE NW.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SEAS REACHING 5-7 FT ON S
AND SE WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OUT OF THE NW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST.  THIS IS MAINLY FOR
THE AREA NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA.  A LONG DURATION
OF NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.  CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.  IN
ADDITION...SOME BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY ALONG THE EXPOSED BEACHES OF
SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>021-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005>007-014>016.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KALY 221737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...CLOUDY...DAMP AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTN. BOTH IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SFC LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OFF THE DELMARVA...WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROAD E-SE
FLOW AROUND THIS STACKED STORM SYSTEM. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS
JUST ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA ACROSS
WASHINGTON COUNTY...BUT PLENTY OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM EAST TO WEST...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH HIGH POPS FOR LATE TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THESE
SHOWERS...SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL AND HOLD FAIRLY STEADY...MAINLY IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COLDER AS WELL...ESP FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OR MAINE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
PCPN MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO RISE TO
CATEGORICAL LEVELS EARLY TONIGHT...AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW HEAVY AND HOW LONG PCPN
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE
TAKEN A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND LOWER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...DROPPING
TO CHANCE LEVELS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...REACHING ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT VARY
MUCH BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS. LOWS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOW OR MID 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY IS
THE TRICKIER DAY IN TERMS OF TEMP FORECASTS. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT IF CLOUDS AND PCPN PERSIST AS SOME MODELS
SUGGEST...THEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL HAVE IMPACTED
THE REGION MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK FINALLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. IT
WILL BE MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME FAVORING UPSLOPE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE DUE TO DECENT JET DYNAMICS DESPITE LACK OF
MOISTURE. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...TEMPS COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER OR MUCH COOLER THAN
SATURDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. WILL STILL MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE SHOWERS. VALLEY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AN EVEN WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SET
UP FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. OCCASIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO THREE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR
OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...CLOUDY...DAMP AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTN. BOTH IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SFC LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OFF THE DELMARVA...WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROAD E-SE
FLOW AROUND THIS STACKED STORM SYSTEM. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS
JUST ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA ACROSS
WASHINGTON COUNTY...BUT PLENTY OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM EAST TO WEST...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH HIGH POPS FOR LATE TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THESE
SHOWERS...SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL AND HOLD FAIRLY STEADY...MAINLY IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COLDER AS WELL...ESP FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OR MAINE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
PCPN MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO RISE TO
CATEGORICAL LEVELS EARLY TONIGHT...AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW HEAVY AND HOW LONG PCPN
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE
TAKEN A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND LOWER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...DROPPING
TO CHANCE LEVELS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...REACHING ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT VARY
MUCH BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS. LOWS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOW OR MID 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY IS
THE TRICKIER DAY IN TERMS OF TEMP FORECASTS. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT IF CLOUDS AND PCPN PERSIST AS SOME MODELS
SUGGEST...THEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL HAVE IMPACTED
THE REGION MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK FINALLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. IT
WILL BE MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME FAVORING UPSLOPE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE DUE TO DECENT JET DYNAMICS DESPITE LACK OF
MOISTURE. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...TEMPS COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER OR MUCH COOLER THAN
SATURDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. WILL STILL MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE SHOWERS. VALLEY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AN EVEN WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SET
UP FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. OCCASIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO THREE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR
OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 221500
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL BE
REPLACED BY A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL
STORM. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY
FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

11 AM UPDATE...

*** A WINDSWEPT SOAKING RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING BEGINS LATE TODAY
    AND CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ***

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SHIELD OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER 4 OR 5 PM.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...WHICH SHOW THE SOAKING RAIN EXPANDING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEAST MA.  THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS TONIGHT.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY.
GIVEN MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNED TREE
LIMBS AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE EXACERBATED
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...WE DID ADD SOUTHERN BRISTOL/PLYMOUTH
COUNTIES TO THE PREVIOUS WATCH.  THIS WAS DONE TO INCLUDE
FALL RIVER AND NEW BEDFORD...WHICH ARE PARTICULARLY VULERNABLE TO
URBAN FLOODING.  WHILE ODDS STILL FAVOR NORTHEAST MA RECEIVING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN...THERE ARE SILL A FEW WILD CARDS.  THE FIRST IS A
COASTAL FRONT THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA.  IN ADDITION...AS THE DRY SLOT APPROACHES
APPEARS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO RESULT IN
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THIS STORM WILL DELIVER A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS WE WILL SEE
BANDING SETUP LIKE WE OFTEN DO IN THE WINTER TIME.  THIS COMBINED
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...LIKELY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE PROJECTING.  THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS SETS UP...BUT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMING THE TROWAL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
TO 60 KT FROM THE GULF OF MAINE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDES
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY
WILL COMBINE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO YIELD A DEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE TROWAL AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE W-ARW HAS UP TO 4" OF
RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MA NORTHWEST-WARD INTO SOUTHERN NH. THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAINFALL
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND
MONADNOCKS. CONVERSELY MAY SEE SOME SHADOWING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ALONG WITH RISK OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION AND FFG ONLY AROUND 3 INCHES WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST NH.

IT WILL BE WINDY TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

THURSDAY...

BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE TROWAL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER DRY SLOT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NOT ONLY THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT ALSO WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ASSIST WITH THIS
SHIFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS DIFFERENCE IN TILT OF THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED SOMEWHAT. WITH
OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW DISPLAYING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT.
THEREFORE...GIVEN THIS BETTER AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND OF
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD BASELINE FOR THIS LONG
TERM UPDATE.

DEFINING THE LONG TERM...WILL INITIALLY BE THE EXITING CUTOFF AND
OCCLUSION. HOWEVER...AFTER BRIEF MESO-RIDGE YET ANOTHER ROBUST
WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL DRYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL FINALLY FORCE THE
STALLED UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND SFC LOW PRES TO BEGIN A SHIFT INTO
THE MARITIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THU NIGHT...CONTINUED -SHRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE REMNANT WARM CONVEYOR REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AS WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SUCH THAT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI...WITH EVEN A FEW MORE
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE. THEREFORE..EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS STILL ON THE MILD SIDE AS DWPTS
REMAIN ELEVATED THU NIGHT...BUT HIGHS ON FRI MAY BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO DIMINISHING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. MAINLY UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
POTENTIAL FOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD HERE IS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WAVE DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. MAINLY NW FLOW...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT A BIT WARMER THANKS TO
H85 AVERAGING ABOUT +5C. MAY SEE SOME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN...
SECONDARY ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH LOW PRES
THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE /EVEN UNDER
NW FLOW/ FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FROPA. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY HEAVY SHOWERS GIVEN THE DRY NW FLOW. IN
FACT...SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THANKS TO ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TOWARD THE S COAST.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS COLD FROPA...SO WILL
LEAN TEMPS TOWARD A COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

MON AND TUE...
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES FINALLY IS ABLE
TO NOSE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE S. THIS ALLOWS GRADUAL WARMING
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE WARMING MAY YIELD H85
TEMPS NEAR +14C BY TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING TO YIELD TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 BY TUE.

WED...
GUIDANCE DIFFERS HERE ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
YIELDING SOLUTIONS OF A PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON WED...TO DURING
THE DAY ON THU. THEREFORE...MAY AT LEAST HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A SHOWER WITH THIS FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT
DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING.

TODAY...
CONDITIONS REMAIN MAINLY IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY IN A MIX OF LOW
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/FOG. NE WINDS INCREASE TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT MAINLY E MA/RI WITH SOME GUSTS HIGHER ACROSS NE
MA. LLWS LIKELY AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND NORTHEAST MA. CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER.
LLWS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA AND SOUTHERN NH. GUSTY NE WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

THU...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE MORNING THEN
TRENDING TOWARD MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HEAVY RAIN TAPERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND CENTRAL-EASTERN MA.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 18Z AS STRONG NE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AND PERSIST INTO THU AM.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LOW PROB OF LLWS TONIGHT INTO THU AM AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NE JET DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/FOG ARE
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.  MAINLY VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR. A PERIOD
OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE DAY SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS LIKELY TODAY AND
  TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ***

11 AM UPDATE...THE ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE BOSTON HARBOR
TO GALE WARNINGS BASED ON A STRONG NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET.

TODAY...NE GALES DEVELOP AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS AND
CONTINUING THE REMINDER OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...NE GALES LIKELY ACROSS CAPE ANN WATERS. SCA ELSEWHERE.
HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTM ALL WATERS.

THU...HEAVY RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXIT THE WATERS BY MIDDAY. NE WINDS
OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS SHOULD EASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY FRI...WITH SEAS RANGING 5-9FT
/HIGHEST AROUND CAPE ANN/ AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SRN WATERS OUT OF THE NW.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SEAS REACHING 5-7 FT ON S
AND SE WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OUT OF THE NW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER NORTHEAST
GALES OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS ALONG WITH THE DURATION OF ONSHORE
WINDS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ALTHOUGH
GIVEN THE LOWER WATER LEVELS EROSION IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AND WAVES BATTERING THE COASTLINE. AGAIN
GREATEST RISK FOR EROSION IS ACROSS SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005>007-014>016.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 221322
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 922 AM...UPDATED GRIDDED FIELDS MAINLY TO LOWER POPS THIS
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT POPS WILL RISE TO LIKELY LEVELS
BY MIDDLE AFTERNOON. WITH A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND AND LOTS OF
CLOUD COVER...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE THAT MUCH FROM
CURRENT READINGS. CONTINUED WITH FORECAST HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.

PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 40S ALL AREAS EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S HIGHER
ELEVATIONS UP NORTH. CONTINUED COLD...RAW NORTHERLY WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES ITS TIME MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OR MAINE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
PCPN MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO RISE TO
CATEGORICAL LEVELS EARLY TONIGHT...AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW HEAVY AND HOW LONG PCPN
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE
TAKEN A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND LOWER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...DROPPING
TO CHANCE LEVELS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...REACHING ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT VARY
MUCH BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS. LOWS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOW OR MID 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY IS
THE TRICKIER DAY IN TERMS OF TEMP FORECASTS. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT IF CLOUDS AND PCPN PERSIST AS SOME MODELS
SUGGEST...THEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL HAVE IMPACTED
THE REGION MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK FINALLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. IT
WILL BE MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME FAVORING UPSLOPE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE DUE TO DECENT JET DYNAMICS DESPITE LACK OF
MOISTURE. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...TEMPS COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER OR MUCH COOLER THAN
SATURDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. WILL STILL MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE SHOWERS. VALLEY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AN EVEN WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SET
UP FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO WILL ONLY MENTION
VCSH FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. CIGS ARE GENERALLY IN
LOWER-END MVFR LEVELS BUT ARE VERY CLOSE TO IFR RANGE SO WILL
MENTION TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY RAIN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS
CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AS THE COASTAL LOW
STRENGTHENS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. OCCASIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO THREE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR
OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM









000
FXUS61 KALY 221150
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
750 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM...LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE EVEN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE
REGION THAN PREVIOUSLY. IN FACT...LITTLE IF ANY PCPN EXISTS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS EARLY THIS MORNING
IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PCPN TRENDS. HAVE ALSO RAISED THE
HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT OBSERVATION.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT SURROUNDING RADARS AND MOVEMENT OF ANY RAIN AREAS...IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT NOT MUCH RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...SO HAVE FORECAST CHANCE POPS IN ALL AREAS. LATER
TODAY...AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE/PCPN BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW...POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
LIKELY LEVELS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND
AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE THAT MUCH
FROM CURRENT READINGS. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OR MAINE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
PCPN MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO RISE TO
CATEGORICAL LEVELS EARLY TONIGHT...AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW HEAVY AND HOW LONG PCPN
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE
TAKEN A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND LOWER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...DROPPING
TO CHANCE LEVELS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...REACHING ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT VARY
MUCH BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS. LOWS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOW OR MID 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY IS
THE TRICKIER DAY IN TERMS OF TEMP FORECASTS. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT IF CLOUDS AND PCPN PERSIST AS SOME MODELS
SUGGEST...THEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL HAVE IMPACTED
THE REGION MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK FINALLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. IT
WILL BE MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME FAVORING UPSLOPE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE DUE TO DECENT JET DYNAMICS DESPITE LACK OF
MOISTURE. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...TEMPS COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER OR MUCH COOLER THAN
SATURDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. WILL STILL MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE SHOWERS. VALLEY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AN EVEN WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SET
UP FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO WILL ONLY MENTION
VCSH FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. CIGS ARE GENERALLY IN
LOWER-END MVFR LEVELS BUT ARE VERY CLOSE TO IFR RANGE SO WILL
MENTION TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A STEADY RAIN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS
CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AS THE COASTAL LOW
STRENGTHENS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. OCCASIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO THREE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR
OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 221120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL BE
REPLACED BY A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL
STORM. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY
FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A WINDSWEPT SOAKING RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING BEGINS LATER
  TODAY AND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ***

7 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM E TO W THIS MORNING AS LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS BLOSSOMING ALONG DEVELOPING NELY LLJ AND
TROWAL. WILL LIKELY SEE THESE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON UNTIL STRONG
SHORTWAVE/DRY SLOT/INSTABILITY RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION NEAR
NJ/NYC BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TODAY. TRIED TO TIME POPS A BIT TOWARD THIS THINKING.
OTHERWISE...SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND LOW LVL MOISTURE ARE
LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. LOWERED THEM TOWARD
LATEST LAV AND BC GUIDANCE THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IMPACTING THE REGION. HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING IMPRESSIVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WITH A NEW WARM CONVEYOR
BELT DEVELOPING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST AND THEN WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY BACK INTO NJ AND EASTERN PA...FORMING A TROWAL. THIS
AREA OF STRONG ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM
SOUTH OF NORTH BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.

MEANWHILE THIS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL RESULT IN A STRONG RESPONSE
AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW PRES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST INTENSIFYING
TODAY. AS A RESULT ONSHORE PGRAD WILL DEVELOP WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL NORTHEAST JET EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN MA WATERS INTO MUCH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINDSWEPT RAIN EVENT
LATER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA.

THE ONSET OF THE HEAVY RAIN /21Z-00Z/ WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE 2ND
HALF OF THE EVENING COMMUTE.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY AS N-NE FLOW IS WELL
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMING THE TROWAL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
TO 60 KT FROM THE GULF OF MAINE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDES
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY
WILL COMBINE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO YIELD A DEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE TROWAL AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE W-ARW HAS UP TO 4" OF
RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MA NORTHWEST-WARD INTO SOUTHERN NH. THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAINFALL
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND
MONADNOCKS. CONVERSELY MAY SEE SOME SHADOWING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ALONG WITH RISK OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION AND FFG ONLY AROUND 3 INCHES WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST NH.

IT WILL BE WINDY TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

THURSDAY...

BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE TROWAL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER DRY SLOT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NOT ONLY THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT ALSO WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ASSIST WITH THIS
SHIFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS DIFFERENCE IN TILT OF THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED SOMEWHAT. WITH
OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW DISPLAYING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT.
THEREFORE...GIVEN THIS BETTER AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND OF
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD BASELINE FOR THIS LONG
TERM UPDATE.

DEFINING THE LONG TERM...WILL INITIALLY BE THE EXITING CUTOFF AND
OCCLUSION. HOWEVER...AFTER BRIEF MESO-RIDGE YET ANOTHER ROBUST
WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL DRYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL FINALLY FORCE THE
STALLED UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND SFC LOW PRES TO BEGIN A SHIFT INTO
THE MARITIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THU NIGHT...CONTINUED -SHRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE REMNANT WARM CONVEYOR REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AS WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SUCH THAT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI...WITH EVEN A FEW MORE
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE. THEREFORE..EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS STILL ON THE MILD SIDE AS DWPTS
REMAIN ELEVATED THU NIGHT...BUT HIGHS ON FRI MAY BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO DIMINISHING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. MAINLY UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
POTENTIAL FOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD HERE IS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WAVE DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. MAINLY NW FLOW...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT A BIT WARMER THANKS TO
H85 AVERAGING ABOUT +5C. MAY SEE SOME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN...
SECONDARY ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH LOW PRES
THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE /EVEN UNDER
NW FLOW/ FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FROPA. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY HEAVY SHOWERS GIVEN THE DRY NW FLOW. IN
FACT...SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THANKS TO ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TOWARD THE S COAST.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS COLD FROPA...SO WILL
LEAN TEMPS TOWARD A COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

MON AND TUE...
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES FINALLY IS ABLE
TO NOSE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE S. THIS ALLOWS GRADUAL WARMING
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE WARMING MAY YIELD H85
TEMPS NEAR +14C BY TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING TO YIELD TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 BY TUE.

WED...
GUIDANCE DIFFERS HERE ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
YIELDING SOLUTIONS OF A PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON WED...TO DURING
THE DAY ON THU. THEREFORE...MAY AT LEAST HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A SHOWER WITH THIS FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT
DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING.

TODAY...
CONDITIONS REMAIN MAINLY IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY IN A MIX OF LOW
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/FOG. NE WINDS INCREASE TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT MAINLY E MA/RI WITH SOME GUSTS HIGHER ACROSS NE
MA. LLWS LIKELY AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND NORTHEAST MA. CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER.
LLWS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA AND SOUTHERN NH. GUSTY NE WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

THU...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE MORNING THEN
TRENDING TOWARD MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HEAVY RAIN TAPERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND CENTRAL-EASTERN MA.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 18Z AS STRONG NE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AND PERSIST INTO THU AM.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LOW PROB OF LLWS TONIGHT INTO THU AM AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NE JET DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/FOG ARE
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.  MAINLY VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR. A PERIOD
OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE DAY SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS LIKELY TODAY AND
  TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ***

TODAY...NE GALES DEVELOP AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS AND
CONTINUING THE REMINDER OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...NE GALES LIKELY ACROSS CAPE ANN WATERS. SCA ELSEWHERE.
HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTM ALL WATERS.

THU...HEAVY RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXIT THE WATERS BY MIDDAY. NE WINDS
OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS SHOULD EASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY FRI...WITH SEAS RANGING 5-9FT
/HIGHEST AROUND CAPE ANN/ AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SRN WATERS OUT OF THE NW.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SEAS REACHING 5-7 FT ON S
AND SE WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OUT OF THE NW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER NORTHEAST
GALES OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS ALONG WITH THE DURATION OF ONSHORE
WINDS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ALTHOUGH
GIVEN THE LOWER WATER LEVELS EROSION IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AND WAVES BATTERING THE COASTLINE. AGAIN
GREATEST RISK FOR EROSION IS ACROSS SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>019-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 221033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 615 AM...LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE EVEN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE
REGION THAN PREVIOUSLY. IN FACT...LITTLEE IF ANY PCPN EXISTS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS EARLY THIS MORNING
IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PCPN TRENDS. HAVE ALSO RAISED THE
HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT OBSERVATION.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT SURROUNDING RADARS AND MOVEMENT OF ANY RAIN AREAS...IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT NOT MUCH RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...SO HAVE FORECAST CHANCE POPS IN ALL AREAS. LATER
TODAY...AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE/PCPN BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW...POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
LIKELY LEVELS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND
AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE THAT MUCH
FROM CURRENT READINGS. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OR MAINE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
PCPN MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO RISE TO
CATEGORICAL LEVELS EARLY TONIGHT...AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW HEAVY AND HOW LONG PCPN
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE
TAKEN A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND LOWER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...DROPPING
TO CHANCE LEVELS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...REACHING ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT VARY
MUCH BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS. LOWS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOW OR MID 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY IS
THE TRICKIER DAY IN TERMS OF TEMP FORECASTS. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT IF CLOUDS AND PCPN PERSIST AS SOME MODELS
SUGGEST...THEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL HAVE IMPACTED
THE REGION MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK FINALLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. IT
WILL BE MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME FAVORING UPSLOPE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE DUE TO DECENT JET DYNAMICS DESPITE LACK OF
MOISTURE. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...TEMPS COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER OR MUCH COOLER THAN
SATURDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. WILL STILL MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE SHOWERS. VALLEY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AN EVEN WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SET
UP FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/..
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL
PROVIDE A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LOWERED INTO IFR RANGE AT
MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN IFR RANGE WITH
OCCASIONAL LOWER-END MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
STEADY RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE WITH
MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AS THE COASTAL LOW
STRENGTHENS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. OCCASIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO THREE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR
OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM













000
FXUS61 KALY 220831
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
LOOKING AT SURROUNDING RADARS AND MOVEMENT OF ANY RAIN AREAS...IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT NOT MUCH RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...SO HAVE FORECAST CHANCE POPS IN ALL AREAS. LATER
TODAY...AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE/PCPN BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW...POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO
LIKELY LEVELS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND
AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE THAT MUCH
FROM CURRENT READINGS. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OR MAINE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
PCPN MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO RISE TO
CATEGORICAL LEVELS EARLY TONIGHT...AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW HEAVY AND HOW LONG PCPN
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE
TAKEN A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND LOWER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...DROPPING
TO CHANCE LEVELS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...REACHING ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT VARY
MUCH BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS. LOWS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOW OR MID 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY IS
THE TRICKIER DAY IN TERMS OF TEMP FORECASTS. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT IF CLOUDS AND PCPN PERSIST AS SOME MODELS
SUGGEST...THEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL HAVE IMPACTED
THE REGION MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK FINALLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. IT
WILL BE MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME FAVORING UPSLOPE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE DUE TO DECENT JET DYNAMICS DESPITE LACK OF
MOISTURE. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...TEMPS COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER OR MUCH COOLER THAN
SATURDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. WILL STILL MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE SHOWERS. VALLEY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AN EVEN WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SET
UP FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/..
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL
PROVIDE A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LOWERED INTO IFR RANGE AT
MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN IFR RANGE WITH
OCCASIONAL LOWER-END MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
STEADY RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE WITH
MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AS THE COASTAL LOW
STRENGTHENS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. OCCASIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO THREE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR
OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM










000
FXUS61 KBOX 220828
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL BE
REPLACED BY A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL
STORM. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY
FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A WINDSWEPT SOAKING RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING BEGINS LATER
  TODAY AND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ***

RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IMPACTING THE REGION. HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING IMPRESSIVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WITH A NEW WARM CONVEYOR
BELT DEVELOPING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST AND THEN WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY BACK INTO NJ AND EASTERN PA...FORMING A TROWAL. THIS
AREA OF STRONG ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM
SOUTH OF NORTH BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.

MEANWHILE THIS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL RESULT IN A STRONG RESPONSE
AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW PRES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST INTENSIFYING
TODAY. AS A RESULT ONSHORE PGRAD WILL DEVELOP WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL NORTHEAST JET EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN MA WATERS INTO MUCH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINDSWEPT RAIN EVENT
LATER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA.

THE ONSET OF THE HEAVY RAIN /21Z-00Z/ WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE 2ND
HALF OF THE EVENING COMMUTE.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY AS N-NE FLOW IS WELL
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMING THE TROWAL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
TO 60 KT FROM THE GULF OF MAINE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDES
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY
WILL COMBINE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO YIELD A DEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE TROWAL AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE W-ARW HAS UP TO 4" OF
RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MA NORTHWEST-WARD INTO SOUTHERN NH. THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAINFALL
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND
MONADNOCKS. CONVERSELY MAY SEE SOME SHADOWING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ALONG WITH RISK OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION AND FFG ONLY AROUND 3 INCHES WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST NH.

IT WILL BE WINDY TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

THURSDAY...

BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE TROWAL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER DRY SLOT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NOT ONLY THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT ALSO WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ASSIST WITH THIS
SHIFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS DIFFERENCE IN TILT OF THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED SOMEWHAT. WITH
OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW DISPLAYING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT.
THEREFORE...GIVEN THIS BETTER AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND OF
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD BASELINE FOR THIS LONG
TERM UPDATE.

DEFINING THE LONG TERM...WILL INITIALLY BE THE EXITING CUTOFF AND
OCCLUSION. HOWEVER...AFTER BRIEF MESO-RIDGE YET ANOTHER ROBUST
WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL DRYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL FINALLY FORCE THE
STALLED UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND SFC LOW PRES TO BEGIN A SHIFT INTO
THE MARITIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THU NIGHT...CONTINUED -SHRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE REMNANT WARM CONVEYOR REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AS WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SUCH THAT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI...WITH EVEN A FEW MORE
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE. THEREFORE..EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS STILL ON THE MILD SIDE AS DWPTS
REMAIN ELEVATED THU NIGHT...BUT HIGHS ON FRI MAY BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO DIMINISHING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. MAINLY UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
POTENTIAL FOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD HERE IS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WAVE DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. MAINLY NW FLOW...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT A BIT WARMER THANKS TO
H85 AVERAGING ABOUT +5C. MAY SEE SOME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN...
SECONDARY ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH LOW PRES
THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE /EVEN UNDER
NW FLOW/ FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FROPA. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY HEAVY SHOWERS GIVEN THE DRY NW FLOW. IN
FACT...SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THANKS TO ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TOWARD THE S COAST.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS COLD FROPA...SO WILL
LEAN TEMPS TOWARD A COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

MON AND TUE...
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES FINALLY IS ABLE
TO NOSE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE S. THIS ALLOWS GRADUAL WARMING
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE WARMING MAY YIELD H85
TEMPS NEAR +14C BY TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING TO YIELD TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 BY TUE.

WED...
GUIDANCE DIFFERS HERE ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
YIELDING SOLUTIONS OF A PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON WED...TO DURING
THE DAY ON THU. THEREFORE...MAY AT LEAST HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A SHOWER WITH THIS FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT
DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR AS A STEADY RAIN MOVES ONSHORE AFTER
18Z. ALSO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER
NORTHEAST MA INTO SOUTHEAST NH WHERE GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LLWS LIKELY AS
LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST
MA. CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER.
LLWS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA AND SOUTHERN NH. GUSTY NE WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

THU...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE MORNING THEN
TRENDING TOWARD MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HEAVY RAIN TAPERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND CENTRAL-EASTERN MA.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 18Z AS STRONG NE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AND PERSIST INTO THU AM.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LOW PROB OF LLWS TONIGHT INTO THU AM AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NE JET DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/FOG ARE
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.  MAINLY VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR. A PERIOD
OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE DAY SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS LIKELY TODAY AND
  TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ***

TODAY...NE GALES DEVELOP AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS AND
CONTINUING THE REMINDER OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...NE GALES LIKELY ACROSS CAPE ANN WATERS. SCA ELSEWHERE.
HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTM ALL WATERS.

THU...HEAVY RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXIT THE WATERS BY MIDDAY. NE WINDS
OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS SHOULD EASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY FRI...WITH SEAS RANGING 5-9FT
/HIGHEST AROUND CAPE ANN/ AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SRN WATERS OUT OF THE NW.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SEAS REACHING 5-7 FT ON S
AND SE WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OUT OF THE NW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER NORTHEAST
GALES OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS ALONG WITH THE DURATION OF ONSHORE
WINDS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ALTHOUGH
GIVEN THE LOWER WATER LEVELS EROSION IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AND WAVES BATTERING THE COASTLINE. AGAIN
GREATEST RISK FOR EROSION IS ACROSS SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ005>007-013>019-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220621
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
221 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME A SOAKING WIND
SWEPT RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL STORM. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOIST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO YIELD LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE. WIDESPREAD/APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN COASTAL LOW
INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TAKING AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL/DAMP SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
***A SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS***

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AS MOIST ONSHORE
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SOAKING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.  A STRONG EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETUP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHICH IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN.  OVERALL...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE.  THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES...MAINLY IN ESSEX COUNTY.  IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...WE MIGHT HAVE SOME FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST IT FALLS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AND A 3RD AND
4TH PERIOD EVENT DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL TRENDS
SLIDE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  REGARDLESS...EXPECT TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...WE DID NOTE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING RAIN THU
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES AS WELL AS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT THOSE ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.  THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE WEATHER DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MORE
SEASONABLE.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST TO MAINE.  AN ADDITIONAL
HALF TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THEN THE MARITIMES...EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY ON CAPE COD AND
CAPE ANN WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST.  WITH THE HIGHER PWATS
AND LOW LEVEL JET STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THERE.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG CAPE ANN WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.  COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S DURING THE DAY
AND IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
INTO THE MARITIMES BUT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT HERE IS WHERE WE SEE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE NEUTRAL
UPPER TROUGH.  IN BOTH MODELS LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT.  EXPECTING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT
DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR AS A STEADY RAIN MOVES ONSHORE AFTER
18Z. ALSO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER
NORTHEAST MA INTO SOUTHEAST NH WHERE GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LLWS LIKELY AS
LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST
MA. CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER.
LLWS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA AND SOUTHERN NH. GUSTY NE WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

THU...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE MORNING THEN
TRENDING TOWARD MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HEAVY RAIN TAPERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND CENTRAL-EASTERN MA.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 18Z AS STRONG NE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AND PERSIST INTO THU AM.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LOW PROB OF LLWS TONIGHT INTO THU AM AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NE JET DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...


FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED IN
CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS***

945 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

======================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST WATERS WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN INTENSIFYING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.  AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST SCA WIND GUSTS
OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST JET WILL BE NORTH OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
OUT FAR NORTHEAST WATERS.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THIS LOCATION.  ALSO...SEAS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 FOOT SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL DO THE SAME.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLOWLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND COASTS DURING THE HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  NO COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 220553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP GRID WERE A
LITTLE TOO COLD AND HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY AROUND 3 DEGREES...WITH
LOWS NOW FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
THE POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ARE FOCUSING
BANDS OF SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FA AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SE CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REACH MUCH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...ESP FOR
AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR
S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND
ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A BIT GREATER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/..
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL
PROVIDE A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LOWERED INTO IFR RANGE AT
MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN IFR RANGE WITH
OCCASIONAL LOWER-END MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
STEADY RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE WITH
MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AS THE COASTAL LOW
STRENGTHENS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 220553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP GRID WERE A
LITTLE TOO COLD AND HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY AROUND 3 DEGREES...WITH
LOWS NOW FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
THE POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ARE FOCUSING
BANDS OF SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FA AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SE CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REACH MUCH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...ESP FOR
AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR
S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND
ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A BIT GREATER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/..
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL
PROVIDE A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LOWERED INTO IFR RANGE AT
MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN IFR RANGE WITH
OCCASIONAL LOWER-END MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
STEADY RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE WITH
MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AS THE COASTAL LOW
STRENGTHENS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 220544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP GRID WERE A
LITTLE TOO COLD AND HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY AROUND 3 DEGREES...WITH
LOWS NOW FORECSAT TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
THE POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ARE FOCUSING
BANDS OF SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FA AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SE CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REACH MUCH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...ESP FOR
AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR
S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND
ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A BIT GREATER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY. MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS EVENING SO VCSH/-SHRA IN
FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM











000
FXUS61 KALY 220544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP GRID WERE A
LITTLE TOO COLD AND HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY AROUND 3 DEGREES...WITH
LOWS NOW FORECSAT TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
THE POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ARE FOCUSING
BANDS OF SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FA AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SE CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REACH MUCH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...ESP FOR
AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR
S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND
ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A BIT GREATER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY. MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS EVENING SO VCSH/-SHRA IN
FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM











000
FXUS61 KBOX 220143
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
943 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY WILL
TURN INTO A SOAKING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

930 PM UPDATE...

CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER WESTERN
WORCESTER COUNTY HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. THUS FLASH FLOOD WARNING
AND FLOOD ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. BIG DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN DUAL POL WHICH ESTIMATED A STORM TOTAL OF UP TO 5.9 INCHES
NEAR WARE...WHILE LEGACY MUCH LESS AT 2.9 INCHES. LEGACY MATCHES
UP BETTER WITH SURROUNDING RADARS AND IT PROBABLY MORE ACCURATE
THAN THE DUAL POL GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVEL THIS EVENING /7
KFT/.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN PA WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LARGE CIRCULATION. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. 00Z UPSTREAM SOUNDING
AT OKX LONG ISLAND INDICATES A VERY DEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES
THESE NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***A SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS***

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AS MOIST ONSHORE
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SOAKING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.  A STRONG EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETUP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHICH IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN.  OVERALL...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE.  THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES...MAINLY IN ESSEX COUNTY.  IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...WE MIGHT HAVE SOME FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST IT FALLS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AND A 3RD AND
4TH PERIOD EVENT DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL TRENDS
SLIDE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  REGARDLESS...EXPECT TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...WE DID NOTE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

* LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING RAIN THU
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES AS WELL AS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT THOSE ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.  THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE WEATHER DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MORE
SEASONABLE.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST TO MAINE.  AN ADDITIONAL
HALF TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THEN THE MARITIMES...EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY ON CAPE COD AND
CAPE ANN WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST.  WITH THE HIGHER PWATS
AND LOW LEVEL JET STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THERE.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG CAPE ANN WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.  COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S DURING THE DAY
AND IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
INTO THE MARITIMES BUT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT HERE IS WHERE WE SEE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE NEUTRAL
UPPER TROUGH.  IN BOTH MODELS LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT.  EXPECTING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

930 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WILL LOWER TO
MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT.  WE THEN EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING TO
MAINLY IFR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS NORTH
OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE.  PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTH.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.  NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THE COAST WED NIGHT...BUT NEAR 30
KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA COAST.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.  NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS
ACROSS S NH AND NE MA.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED IN
CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS***

945 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

======================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST WATERS WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN INTENSIFYING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.  AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST SCA WIND GUSTS
OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST JET WILL BE NORTH OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
OUT FAR NORTHEAST WATERS.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THIS LOCATION.  ALSO...SEAS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 FOOT SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL DO THE SAME.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLOWLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND COASTS DURING THE HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  NO COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 220122
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 920 PM EDT...TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ARE FOCUSING BANDS OF SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO
SOME RAIN SHOULD REACH MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN VT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...ESP FOR
AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR
S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND
ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A BIT GREATER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY. MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS EVENING SO VCSH/-SHRA IN
FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 212324
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
724 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND EXTREME SE NYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE REMNANTS OF THIS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/LITCHFIELD CO...AND THE SE CATSKILLS LATER THIS EVENING AS
WELL.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP FOR AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE
BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A
BIT GREATER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY. MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS EVENING SO VCSH/-SHRA IN
FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 212324
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
724 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND EXTREME SE NYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE REMNANTS OF THIS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/LITCHFIELD CO...AND THE SE CATSKILLS LATER THIS EVENING AS
WELL.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP FOR AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE
BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A
BIT GREATER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY. MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS EVENING SO VCSH/-SHRA IN
FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 212257
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY WILL
TURN INTO A SOAKING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...ONE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS VERY NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE HAMPDEN/HAMPSHIRE/WORCESTER COUNTY BORDER. RADAR IS
ESTIMATING THAT THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DROPPED 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF PALMER...WARE...AND WARREN. HOWEVER...NO
REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE OFFICE OF RAINFALL OR FLOODING
AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION IS DRY WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OVER LONG ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
OVERALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE EXPANDING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. WE MAY
ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
***A SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS***

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AS MOIST ONSHORE
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SOAKING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.  A STRONG EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETUP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHICH IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN.  OVERALL...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE.  THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES...MAINLY IN ESSEX COUNTY.  IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...WE MIGHT HAVE SOME FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST IT FALLS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AND A 3RD AND
4TH PERIOD EVENT DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL TRENDS
SLIDE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  REGARDLESS...EXPECT TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...WE DID NOTE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING RAIN THU
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES AS WELL AS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT THOSE ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.  THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE WEATHER DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MORE
SEASONABLE.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST TO MAINE.  AN ADDITIONAL
HALF TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THEN THE MARITIMES...EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY ON CAPE COD AND
CAPE ANN WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST.  WITH THE HIGHER PWATS
AND LOW LEVEL JET STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THERE.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG CAPE ANN WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.  COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S DURING THE DAY
AND IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
INTO THE MARITIMES BUT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT HERE IS WHERE WE SEE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE NEUTRAL
UPPER TROUGH.  IN BOTH MODELS LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT.  EXPECTING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WILL LOWER TO
MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT.  WE THEN EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING TO
MAINLY IFR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS NORTH
OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE.  PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTH.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.  NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THE COAST WED NIGHT...BUT NEAR 30
KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA COAST.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.  NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS
ACROSS S NH AND NE MA.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED IN
CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS***

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST WATERS WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN INTENSIFYING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.  AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST SCA WIND GUSTS
OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST JET WILL BE NORTH OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
OUT FAR NORTHEAST WATERS.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THIS LOCATION.  ALSO...SEAS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 FOOT SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL DO THE SAME.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLOWLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND COASTS DURING THE HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  NO COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212257
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY WILL
TURN INTO A SOAKING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...ONE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS VERY NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE HAMPDEN/HAMPSHIRE/WORCESTER COUNTY BORDER. RADAR IS
ESTIMATING THAT THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DROPPED 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF PALMER...WARE...AND WARREN. HOWEVER...NO
REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE OFFICE OF RAINFALL OR FLOODING
AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION IS DRY WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OVER LONG ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
OVERALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE EXPANDING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. WE MAY
ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
***A SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS***

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AS MOIST ONSHORE
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SOAKING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.  A STRONG EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETUP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHICH IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN.  OVERALL...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE.  THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES...MAINLY IN ESSEX COUNTY.  IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...WE MIGHT HAVE SOME FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST IT FALLS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AND A 3RD AND
4TH PERIOD EVENT DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL TRENDS
SLIDE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  REGARDLESS...EXPECT TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...WE DID NOTE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING RAIN THU
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES AS WELL AS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT THOSE ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.  THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE WEATHER DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MORE
SEASONABLE.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST TO MAINE.  AN ADDITIONAL
HALF TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THEN THE MARITIMES...EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY ON CAPE COD AND
CAPE ANN WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST.  WITH THE HIGHER PWATS
AND LOW LEVEL JET STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THERE.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG CAPE ANN WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.  COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S DURING THE DAY
AND IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
INTO THE MARITIMES BUT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT HERE IS WHERE WE SEE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE NEUTRAL
UPPER TROUGH.  IN BOTH MODELS LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT.  EXPECTING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WILL LOWER TO
MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT.  WE THEN EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING TO
MAINLY IFR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS NORTH
OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE.  PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTH.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.  NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THE COAST WED NIGHT...BUT NEAR 30
KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA COAST.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.  NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS
ACROSS S NH AND NE MA.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED IN
CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS***

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST WATERS WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN INTENSIFYING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.  AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST SCA WIND GUSTS
OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST JET WILL BE NORTH OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
OUT FAR NORTHEAST WATERS.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THIS LOCATION.  ALSO...SEAS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 FOOT SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL DO THE SAME.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLOWLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND COASTS DURING THE HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  NO COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 212216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND EXTREME SE NYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE REMNANTS OF THIS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/LITCHFIELD CO...AND THE SE CATSKILLS LATER THIS EVENING AS
WELL.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP FOR AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE
BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A
BIT GREATER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL UPPER IMPULSE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO EXIT THE
KALB...KPOU AND KGFL AREAS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SMALL UPPER IMPULSE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW ARE BUILDING EAST.  SO SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. VARYING COVERAGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO GENERALLY VCSH TONIGHT. THEN...INCREASING
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN
UPPER ENERGY TRACKS CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HOVER JUST IN THE
VFR RANGE...JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET...BUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS...BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. TONIGHT...MAINLY MVFR...BUT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...AND THEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 212216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND EXTREME SE NYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE REMNANTS OF THIS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/LITCHFIELD CO...AND THE SE CATSKILLS LATER THIS EVENING AS
WELL.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP FOR AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE
BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A
BIT GREATER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL UPPER IMPULSE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO EXIT THE
KALB...KPOU AND KGFL AREAS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SMALL UPPER IMPULSE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW ARE BUILDING EAST.  SO SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. VARYING COVERAGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO GENERALLY VCSH TONIGHT. THEN...INCREASING
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN
UPPER ENERGY TRACKS CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HOVER JUST IN THE
VFR RANGE...JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET...BUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS...BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. TONIGHT...MAINLY MVFR...BUT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...AND THEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 212031
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
431 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY WILL
TURN INTO A SOAKING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST MA AS OF LATE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION WAS GENERALLY DRY.  WE
ACTUALLY HAVE SEEN SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE BREAK OUT ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION...BUT THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY.

OVERALL...JUST A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH THE BULK
OF THE FORCING TO OUR NORTH.  AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...SURFACE WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  THIS WILL
PROBABLY ALLOW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN... SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE
TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.  WE MAY
ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
***A SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS***

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AS MOIST ONSHORE
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SOAKING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.  A STRONG EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETUP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHICH IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN.  OVERALL...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE.  THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES...MAINLY IN ESSEX COUNTY.  IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...WE MIGHT HAVE SOME FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST IT FALLS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AND A 3RD AND
4TH PERIOD EVENT DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL TRENDS
SLIDE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  REGARDLESS...EXPECT TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...WE DID NOTE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING RAIN THU
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES AS WELL AS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT THOSE ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.  THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE WEATHER DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MORE
SEASONABLE.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST TO MAINE.  AN ADDITIONAL
HALF TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THEN THE MARITIMES...EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY ON CAPE COD AND
CAPE ANN WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST.  WITH THE HIGHER PWATS
AND LOW LEVEL JET STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THERE.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG CAPE ANN WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.  COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S DURING THE DAY
AND IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
INTO THE MARITIMES BUT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT HERE IS WHERE WE SEE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE NEUTRAL
UPPER TROUGH.  IN BOTH MODELS LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT.  EXPECTING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WILL LOWER TO
MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT.  WE THEN EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING TO
MAINLY IFR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS NORTH
OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE.  PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTH.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.  NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THE COAST WED NIGHT...BUT NEAR 30
KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA COAST.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.  NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS
ACROSS S NH AND NE MA.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED IN
CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS***

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST WATERS WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN INTENSIFYING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.  AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST SCA WIND GUSTS
OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST JET WILL BE NORTH OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
OUT FAR NORTHEAST WATERS.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THIS LOCATION.  ALSO...SEAS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 FOOT SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL DO THE SAME.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLOWLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND COASTS DURING THE HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  NO COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KALY 212003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EDT...ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT THROUGH
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND EXTREME SE NYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE REMNANTS OF THIS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/LITCHFIELD CO...AND THE SE CATSKILLS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
WELL.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP FOR AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE BULK
OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE
REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A BIT GREATER
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL UPPER IMPULSE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO EXIT THE
KALB...KPOU AND KGFL AREAS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SMALL UPPER IMPULSE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW ARE BUILDING EAST.  SO SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. VARYING COVERAGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO GENERALLY VCSH TONIGHT. THEN...INCREASING
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN
UPPER ENERGY TRACKS CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HOVER JUST IN THE
VFR RANGE...JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET...BUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS...BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. TONIGHT...MAINLY MVFR...BUT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...AND THEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 211759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
158 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

CLUSTER OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND INTO A
PORTION OF RHODE ISLAND AS OF MID AFTERNOON.  APPEARS TO IN A NARROW
AREA OF LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE THESE SHOWERS.  SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WERE
RESULTING IN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.  SURFACE WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT
NORTHWEST OF I-95 AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH SOUTHEAST
OF THAT AREA.

THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING.  WE MAY SEE THE MAIN CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MA GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE WEAKENING BY EARLY
EVENING.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH OF THE PIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
CLUSTER OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WERE MAINLY ACROSS A SMALL
PORTION OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AND THEN MAINLY IFR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.  TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
NORTH OF THE PIKE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE.  PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY.  WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.  NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THE COAST WED NIGHT...BUT
NEAR 30 KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 211721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NYS
HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST ALONG ITS
EASTERN FLANK FROM THE SE CATSKILLS...INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND SW VT/NW MA. AS THIS IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE
FARTHER NORTH...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/RAIN TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM S TO N THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS MAY
TAKE SOME TIME...SO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR...AND A DEVELOPING LIGHT
NORTH WIND...WE DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB MUCH ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S. HERE...TEMPS MAY STILL
CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE N AND
COOLING DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID
50S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.

OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...AND ALSO INTERMITTENTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCHOHARIE CO...WHERE SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE...AND DOWNSLOPING HAVE ALREADY ALLOWED FOR SOME
OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF SUN TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL UPPER IMPULSE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO EXIT THE
KALB...KPOU AND KGFL AREAS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SMALL UPPER IMPULSE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
UIPPER LOW ARE BUILDING EAST.  SO SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. VARYING COVERAGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO GENERALLY VCSH TONIGHT. THEN...INCREASING
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN
UPPER ENERGY TRACKS CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HOVER JUST IN THE
VFR RANGE...JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET...BUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS...BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE INCREASED LOW
LEVE MOISTURE. TONIGHT...MAINLY MVFR...BUT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...AND THEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211659
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NYS
HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST ALONG ITS
EASTERN FLANK FROM THE SE CATSKILLS...INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND SW VT/NW MA. AS THIS IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE
FARTHER NORTH...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/RAIN TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM S TO N THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS MAY
TAKE SOME TIME...SO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR...AND A DEVELOPING LIGHT
NORTH WIND...WE DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB MUCH ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S. HERE...TEMPS MAY STILL
CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE N AND
COOLING DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID
50S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.

OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...AND ALSO INTERMITTENTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCHOHARIE CO...WHERE SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE...AND DOWNSLOPING HAVE ALREADY ALLOWED FOR SOME
OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF SUN TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME AS
BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BY THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








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