Latest:
 AFDBOX |  AFDALY |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 232347
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
747 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS TRANSITIONING TO
SHOWERS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THURSDAY WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN WITH DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #432 CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
  EVENING FOR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE *

* LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AND WEST
  NEW ENGLAND INTO THIS EVENING. *

* SEVERE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE LINE
  SWEEPS SOUTHEAST *

730 PM UPDATE...

LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MARCH E/SE
WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN / DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN THE RISK OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLASH FLOODING.

PER SPC MESOANALYSIS...INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG W/N A
REGION OF NEARLY 2+ INCH PWATS PREVAILS. YET THE LINE ENCROACHES
ON A REGION OF VERY WEAK / NEGLIGBLE SHEAR. EXPECTING THE LINE TO
WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO SLIDE E/SE INTO THE EVENING...BECOMING
DIFFUSE WITH JUST WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
A CONSEQUENCE OF WEAKER SHEAR AND CONCLUSION OF DAYTIME HEATING.

HAVE MODIFIED THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST TRENDS. KEPT CLOSE TO
THE NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE BY INCORPORATING THE RAP/HRRR INTO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH GAVE A GOOD BLEND OF EXPECTED WEATHER.
SEVERE THREATS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN REMAIN OVER
AREAS INCORPORATED IN THE WATCH. UPON CONCLUSION OF THE WATCH...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH HEAVY RAIN / GUSTY WIND WORDING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN A VERY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT.

LINE WILL MARCH INTO CENTRAL-SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND W/N THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...REACHING THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE THE LINE SLOW WITH ITS APPROACH TO THE S/SE...
SO IMPACTS FROM PROVIDENCE TO THE SE WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND THEN ON INTO MORNING BEFORE CONCLUDING ROUGHLY
PRIOR TO MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH THE EC AND NAM SHOW A WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE SLOW DOWN WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
THE OUTLIER ON PUSHING THE FRONT THOUGH BY 12Z. IN FACT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STILL ACROSS UPSTATE NY BY 12/15Z RESULTING IN
CLOUDS AND THE CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL LINGER ESP FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THAT BY 00Z THE
FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OFFSHORE BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS.
BECAUSE OF THE SLOW DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT...
CANT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN A
COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THEN TODAY. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES...SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO FRIDAY
 - RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
 - SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
 - A RETURN OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER BY MIDWEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SURPRISING PATTERN AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF JULY! AS PRESENT NW
PACIFIC IMPULSE EJECTS E IT COUPLES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PARKED
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN TROUGH ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE N-ATLANTIC AND
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE W-CONUS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC IMPULSE
BOTTLED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN BUCKLES.
WITH THE STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE...ANOMALOUS CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SIGNAL A -3 TO -4 SD IN
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY.

BUT A NOTE OF CAUTION: SIMILAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OUT TO D8 AND INTO
EARLY AUGUST ARE EXHIBITING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITHIN NAO/PNA
TRENDS. IT IS WITH NO CERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.
THIS MAKES THE FORECAST OVER THE NE-CONUS DIFFICULT FURTHER OUT IN
TIME AS NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. JUST A SLIGHT WOBBLE OF THE OVERALL
BUCKLED PATTERN E OR W CAN RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST.

FEEL THE DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WARRANTS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE FORECAST. WILL HIT ON
THE MAIN POINTS ALONG WITH ANY PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES
BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THINKING A DRY FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
SHIFTING SE. FEEL THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT WAVE LOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS. SHOWERS DISSIPATING /IF ANY/ TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS
DYNAMICS ARE SHUNTED OUT OF THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/ FOLLOWED BY RETURN
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SLIDES
E/SE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE W. SEASONABLE WX
INITIALLY...BUT EXPECT THE RETURN OF WARMER/MUGGIER CONDITIONS BY
SATURDAY. LOOKING CLEAR FOR FRIDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND THE PROXIMITY OF ITS E-PERIPHERY ARE
KEYS TO THE FORECAST /AS IS THE OFFSHORE ENHACING RIDGE ACROSS THE N-
ATLANTIC/. THE TRACK TIMING AND MORPHOLOGY OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES
THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL
OUTCOMES FOR THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SEEMINGLY AN INITIAL IMPULSE IS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY /PERHAPS A MCS/ WHERE THERMAL/MOIST
AXES AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY CONVERGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALONG
THE NOSE OF A LLJ REAR OF AN ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT. THE MORE ZONAL
REGIME ADVECTS THIS ACTIVITY W-TO-E. NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PRESENTS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. BUT EARLY IN TIME AND LIKELY
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER...THREAT MAY BE LIMITED. HINTS OF MID-LEVEL
DRYING AND WAKE SUBSIDENCE? JUST A HUGE MESS. MAY BE LOOKING AT MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WHO KNOWS...JUST
A FIRST GUESS. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE PLUME OF PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES AND A POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. SOME CONFIDENCE OF
THAT AT LEAST.

INTO MONDAY...THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT OCCLUDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN WARM/MUGGY/UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...CONVECTION IS LIKELY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO GO INTO DETAIL. MANY
QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER THE ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE BENEATH
STRONG SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. APPEARS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
YEESH. AGAIN...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. ONLY CONFIDENCE IS WITH SURGING
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2-INCHES CONTINUING THE POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING.

A FINAL NOTE...EVALUATING THE 23.0Z AND 23.12Z CIPS ANALOGS...BOTH
PING UPON POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE THREATS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WITH
THE 23.12Z ANALOGS /UP TO 70-PERCENT/. SO WHILE THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST STILL WARRANTS
CLOSE MONITORING.

AT SOME POINT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH E BEHIND WHICH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE OCCLUSION SHOULD PREVAIL RESULTING
IN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. WHETHER THIS OCCURS ON
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...JUST TOO UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LINE OF TSRA/+RA SWEEPING S/SE. STRONGEST MAINLY W OF LWM-BED-IJD.
MIX OF MVFR-IFR IMPACTS WITH PASSAGE ALONG WITH NW GUSTS OF AROUND
20 KTS. STRONGER TO DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR W AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS. LINE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER S/SE WITH TIME. TAFS
TRENDED ACCORDINGLY. FOR THOSE TAFS E OF MHT-ORH-IJD...WILL HOLD
OFF ON TSRA MENTION TILL ACTIVITY GETS REASONABLY CLOSER.

TOWARDS MORNING...WIDESPREAD RA W/ EMBEDDED TSRA LINGERS FOR THE
S/SE TERMINALS EXITING OUT TO SEA BY ABOUT MIDDAY. COASTAL FOG
ALONG WITH VLIFR-IFR CIGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST /ESPECIALLY
ACK/ IS ANTICIPATED. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARDS VFR NW-SE WITH
TIME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD W/ VCTS AT 2Z. HOLD OFF
ON TSRA MENTION UNTIL ACTIVITY CLOSES IN. TREND IS FOR TSRA TO
WEAKEN BELOW THE POINT OF CONSIDERATION PRIOR TO THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TSRA ON THE DOOR STEP SHOULD GET
IN SHORTLY AFTER 0Z. PREVAILED ACCORDINGLY. W/N 0-1Z...STRONG LINE
OF STORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS
ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -RA MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/. SCT-BKN 5 KFT
CIGS SATURDAY WITH BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

PERIODS OF RA/TSRA. MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...WORST OF WHICH
ANTICIPATED DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND +RA. CONTINUED BLUSTERY
S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THEREFORE SCA
IS STILL IN EFFECT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SE OUTER-
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE GOOD AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/.
WINDS VEER S/SW OVERNIGHT AND BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WEATHER TURNING SOUR. INCREASE S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER
THE S-WATERS ESPECIALLY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 232347
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
747 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS TRANSITIONING TO
SHOWERS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THURSDAY WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN WITH DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #432 CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
  EVENING FOR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE *

* LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AND WEST
  NEW ENGLAND INTO THIS EVENING. *

* SEVERE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE LINE
  SWEEPS SOUTHEAST *

730 PM UPDATE...

LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MARCH E/SE
WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN / DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN THE RISK OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLASH FLOODING.

PER SPC MESOANALYSIS...INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG W/N A
REGION OF NEARLY 2+ INCH PWATS PREVAILS. YET THE LINE ENCROACHES
ON A REGION OF VERY WEAK / NEGLIGBLE SHEAR. EXPECTING THE LINE TO
WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO SLIDE E/SE INTO THE EVENING...BECOMING
DIFFUSE WITH JUST WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
A CONSEQUENCE OF WEAKER SHEAR AND CONCLUSION OF DAYTIME HEATING.

HAVE MODIFIED THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST TRENDS. KEPT CLOSE TO
THE NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE BY INCORPORATING THE RAP/HRRR INTO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH GAVE A GOOD BLEND OF EXPECTED WEATHER.
SEVERE THREATS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN REMAIN OVER
AREAS INCORPORATED IN THE WATCH. UPON CONCLUSION OF THE WATCH...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH HEAVY RAIN / GUSTY WIND WORDING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN A VERY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT.

LINE WILL MARCH INTO CENTRAL-SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND W/N THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...REACHING THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE THE LINE SLOW WITH ITS APPROACH TO THE S/SE...
SO IMPACTS FROM PROVIDENCE TO THE SE WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND THEN ON INTO MORNING BEFORE CONCLUDING ROUGHLY
PRIOR TO MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH THE EC AND NAM SHOW A WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE SLOW DOWN WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
THE OUTLIER ON PUSHING THE FRONT THOUGH BY 12Z. IN FACT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STILL ACROSS UPSTATE NY BY 12/15Z RESULTING IN
CLOUDS AND THE CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL LINGER ESP FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THAT BY 00Z THE
FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OFFSHORE BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS.
BECAUSE OF THE SLOW DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT...
CANT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN A
COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THEN TODAY. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES...SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO FRIDAY
 - RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
 - SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
 - A RETURN OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER BY MIDWEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SURPRISING PATTERN AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF JULY! AS PRESENT NW
PACIFIC IMPULSE EJECTS E IT COUPLES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PARKED
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN TROUGH ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE N-ATLANTIC AND
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE W-CONUS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC IMPULSE
BOTTLED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN BUCKLES.
WITH THE STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE...ANOMALOUS CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SIGNAL A -3 TO -4 SD IN
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY.

BUT A NOTE OF CAUTION: SIMILAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OUT TO D8 AND INTO
EARLY AUGUST ARE EXHIBITING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITHIN NAO/PNA
TRENDS. IT IS WITH NO CERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.
THIS MAKES THE FORECAST OVER THE NE-CONUS DIFFICULT FURTHER OUT IN
TIME AS NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. JUST A SLIGHT WOBBLE OF THE OVERALL
BUCKLED PATTERN E OR W CAN RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST.

FEEL THE DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WARRANTS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE FORECAST. WILL HIT ON
THE MAIN POINTS ALONG WITH ANY PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES
BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THINKING A DRY FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
SHIFTING SE. FEEL THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT WAVE LOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS. SHOWERS DISSIPATING /IF ANY/ TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS
DYNAMICS ARE SHUNTED OUT OF THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/ FOLLOWED BY RETURN
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SLIDES
E/SE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE W. SEASONABLE WX
INITIALLY...BUT EXPECT THE RETURN OF WARMER/MUGGIER CONDITIONS BY
SATURDAY. LOOKING CLEAR FOR FRIDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND THE PROXIMITY OF ITS E-PERIPHERY ARE
KEYS TO THE FORECAST /AS IS THE OFFSHORE ENHACING RIDGE ACROSS THE N-
ATLANTIC/. THE TRACK TIMING AND MORPHOLOGY OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES
THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL
OUTCOMES FOR THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SEEMINGLY AN INITIAL IMPULSE IS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY /PERHAPS A MCS/ WHERE THERMAL/MOIST
AXES AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY CONVERGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALONG
THE NOSE OF A LLJ REAR OF AN ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT. THE MORE ZONAL
REGIME ADVECTS THIS ACTIVITY W-TO-E. NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PRESENTS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. BUT EARLY IN TIME AND LIKELY
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER...THREAT MAY BE LIMITED. HINTS OF MID-LEVEL
DRYING AND WAKE SUBSIDENCE? JUST A HUGE MESS. MAY BE LOOKING AT MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WHO KNOWS...JUST
A FIRST GUESS. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE PLUME OF PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES AND A POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. SOME CONFIDENCE OF
THAT AT LEAST.

INTO MONDAY...THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT OCCLUDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN WARM/MUGGY/UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...CONVECTION IS LIKELY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO GO INTO DETAIL. MANY
QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER THE ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE BENEATH
STRONG SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. APPEARS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
YEESH. AGAIN...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. ONLY CONFIDENCE IS WITH SURGING
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2-INCHES CONTINUING THE POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING.

A FINAL NOTE...EVALUATING THE 23.0Z AND 23.12Z CIPS ANALOGS...BOTH
PING UPON POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE THREATS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WITH
THE 23.12Z ANALOGS /UP TO 70-PERCENT/. SO WHILE THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST STILL WARRANTS
CLOSE MONITORING.

AT SOME POINT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH E BEHIND WHICH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE OCCLUSION SHOULD PREVAIL RESULTING
IN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. WHETHER THIS OCCURS ON
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...JUST TOO UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LINE OF TSRA/+RA SWEEPING S/SE. STRONGEST MAINLY W OF LWM-BED-IJD.
MIX OF MVFR-IFR IMPACTS WITH PASSAGE ALONG WITH NW GUSTS OF AROUND
20 KTS. STRONGER TO DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR W AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS. LINE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER S/SE WITH TIME. TAFS
TRENDED ACCORDINGLY. FOR THOSE TAFS E OF MHT-ORH-IJD...WILL HOLD
OFF ON TSRA MENTION TILL ACTIVITY GETS REASONABLY CLOSER.

TOWARDS MORNING...WIDESPREAD RA W/ EMBEDDED TSRA LINGERS FOR THE
S/SE TERMINALS EXITING OUT TO SEA BY ABOUT MIDDAY. COASTAL FOG
ALONG WITH VLIFR-IFR CIGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST /ESPECIALLY
ACK/ IS ANTICIPATED. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARDS VFR NW-SE WITH
TIME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD W/ VCTS AT 2Z. HOLD OFF
ON TSRA MENTION UNTIL ACTIVITY CLOSES IN. TREND IS FOR TSRA TO
WEAKEN BELOW THE POINT OF CONSIDERATION PRIOR TO THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TSRA ON THE DOOR STEP SHOULD GET
IN SHORTLY AFTER 0Z. PREVAILED ACCORDINGLY. W/N 0-1Z...STRONG LINE
OF STORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS
ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -RA MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/. SCT-BKN 5 KFT
CIGS SATURDAY WITH BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

PERIODS OF RA/TSRA. MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...WORST OF WHICH
ANTICIPATED DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND +RA. CONTINUED BLUSTERY
S/SW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THEREFORE SCA
IS STILL IN EFFECT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SE OUTER-
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE GOOD AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/.
WINDS VEER S/SW OVERNIGHT AND BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WEATHER TURNING SOUR. INCREASE S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER
THE S-WATERS ESPECIALLY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 232253
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED INTO THE CAPITAL REGION. COOLER AIR A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHILE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION UNTIL 10 PM. AFTER THAT...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
WHOLE REGION BY THURSDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. LAPS
ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN KNOCKED DOWN TO
LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG IN THIS AREA. RADAR TRENDS HAVE WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY. SHOULD ONLY HAVE MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...TAPERING
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH LITTLE IF
ANY THUNDER HAPPENING.

THERE WAS STILL OVER 2000 J/KG WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN THOSE AREAS
UNTIL 1000 PM. THERE WAS A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING
THROUGH THIS AREA...AND ANY OF THESE COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 70S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST AS THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE COLD FRONT...HAVE WORKED THROUGH
THE REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WORKS INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 02Z. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 50KTS AND HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR MORE. IN
ADDITION ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

AS OF 21Z...A LINE OF STORM BACKBUILDED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ALMOST TO THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
IN SCHOHARIE COUNTY TRACKING NORTHWEST. PLACED A VCTS IN THE ALBANY
TAF THROUGH 00Z...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR REDUCED RAIN AND WIND GUSTS
TO 30KTS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE IMPACTING KGFL BUT TEMPERATURES THERE HAD DROPPED
INTO THE 70S...LOWERING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE WORKING TOWARD THE PITTSFIELD AIRPORT AS WELL AS
KPOU. BOTH SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY STORMS WITHIN THE HOUR. HAVE VCTS
IN BOTH TAFS...AND OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS AT LEAST TO MVFR (COULD
EASILY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR) DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH 25KTS OR BETTER.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 232253
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED INTO THE CAPITAL REGION. COOLER AIR A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHILE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION UNTIL 10 PM. AFTER THAT...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
WHOLE REGION BY THURSDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. LAPS
ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN KNOCKED DOWN TO
LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG IN THIS AREA. RADAR TRENDS HAVE WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY. SHOULD ONLY HAVE MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...TAPERING
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH LITTLE IF
ANY THUNDER HAPPENING.

THERE WAS STILL OVER 2000 J/KG WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN THOSE AREAS
UNTIL 1000 PM. THERE WAS A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING
THROUGH THIS AREA...AND ANY OF THESE COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 70S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST AS THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE COLD FRONT...HAVE WORKED THROUGH
THE REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WORKS INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 02Z. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 50KTS AND HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR MORE. IN
ADDITION ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

AS OF 21Z...A LINE OF STORM BACKBUILDED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ALMOST TO THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
IN SCHOHARIE COUNTY TRACKING NORTHWEST. PLACED A VCTS IN THE ALBANY
TAF THROUGH 00Z...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR REDUCED RAIN AND WIND GUSTS
TO 30KTS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE IMPACTING KGFL BUT TEMPERATURES THERE HAD DROPPED
INTO THE 70S...LOWERING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE WORKING TOWARD THE PITTSFIELD AIRPORT AS WELL AS
KPOU. BOTH SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY STORMS WITHIN THE HOUR. HAVE VCTS
IN BOTH TAFS...AND OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS AT LEAST TO MVFR (COULD
EASILY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR) DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH 25KTS OR BETTER.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 232132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
530 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 432 CONTINUES. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO NEARLY 4000
J/KG ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...WAS ABOUT 30KTS
ACROSS AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

DESPITE MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0KM/C THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR CELLS TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO SEVERE
LIMITS.

WE HAVE ISSUED A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARNING...ONE JUST
NORTHEAST OF ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...THE OTHER IN COLUMBIA
COUNTY. MORE COULD FOLLOW...BUT EVERYONE HAS A BETTER THAN 50/50
CHANCE OF AT LEAST GETTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HEARING THUNDER.

IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CAPITAL REGION
WILL BE FROM NOW THROUGH 600 PM...ASSUMING A LINE TO OUR NORTHWEST
HOLDS TOGETHER AND MOVES THROUGH. THIS COULD IMPACT THE TAIL END OF
EVENING DRIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN....LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN THE
VALLEYS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 70S AS THUNDERSTORMS WORK THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WORKS INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 02Z. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 50KTS AND HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR MORE. IN
ADDITION ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

AS OF 21Z...A LINE OF STORM BACKBUILDED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ALMOST TO THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
IN SCHOHARIE COUNTY TRACKING NORTHWEST. PLACED A VCTS IN THE ALBANY
TAF THROUGH 00Z...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR REDUCED RAIN AND WIND GUSTS
TO 30KTS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE IMPACTING KGFL BUT TEMPERATURES THERE HAD DROPPED
INTO THE 70S...LOWERING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE WORKING TOWARD THE PITTSFIELD AIRPORT AS WELL AS
KPOU. BOTH SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY STORMS WITHIN THE HOUR. HAVE VCTS
IN BOTH TAFS...AND OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS AT LEAST TO MVFR (COULD
EASILY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR) DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH 25KTS OR BETTER.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV












000
FXUS61 KALY 232132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
530 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 432 CONTINUES. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO NEARLY 4000
J/KG ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...WAS ABOUT 30KTS
ACROSS AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

DESPITE MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0KM/C THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR CELLS TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO SEVERE
LIMITS.

WE HAVE ISSUED A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARNING...ONE JUST
NORTHEAST OF ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...THE OTHER IN COLUMBIA
COUNTY. MORE COULD FOLLOW...BUT EVERYONE HAS A BETTER THAN 50/50
CHANCE OF AT LEAST GETTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HEARING THUNDER.

IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CAPITAL REGION
WILL BE FROM NOW THROUGH 600 PM...ASSUMING A LINE TO OUR NORTHWEST
HOLDS TOGETHER AND MOVES THROUGH. THIS COULD IMPACT THE TAIL END OF
EVENING DRIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN....LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN THE
VALLEYS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 70S AS THUNDERSTORMS WORK THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WORKS INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 02Z. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 50KTS AND HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR MORE. IN
ADDITION ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

AS OF 21Z...A LINE OF STORM BACKBUILDED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ALMOST TO THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
IN SCHOHARIE COUNTY TRACKING NORTHWEST. PLACED A VCTS IN THE ALBANY
TAF THROUGH 00Z...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR REDUCED RAIN AND WIND GUSTS
TO 30KTS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE IMPACTING KGFL BUT TEMPERATURES THERE HAD DROPPED
INTO THE 70S...LOWERING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE WORKING TOWARD THE PITTSFIELD AIRPORT AS WELL AS
KPOU. BOTH SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY STORMS WITHIN THE HOUR. HAVE VCTS
IN BOTH TAFS...AND OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS AT LEAST TO MVFR (COULD
EASILY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR) DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH 25KTS OR BETTER.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV












000
FXUS61 KALY 232132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
530 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 432 CONTINUES. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO NEARLY 4000
J/KG ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...WAS ABOUT 30KTS
ACROSS AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

DESPITE MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0KM/C THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR CELLS TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO SEVERE
LIMITS.

WE HAVE ISSUED A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARNING...ONE JUST
NORTHEAST OF ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...THE OTHER IN COLUMBIA
COUNTY. MORE COULD FOLLOW...BUT EVERYONE HAS A BETTER THAN 50/50
CHANCE OF AT LEAST GETTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HEARING THUNDER.

IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CAPITAL REGION
WILL BE FROM NOW THROUGH 600 PM...ASSUMING A LINE TO OUR NORTHWEST
HOLDS TOGETHER AND MOVES THROUGH. THIS COULD IMPACT THE TAIL END OF
EVENING DRIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN....LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN THE
VALLEYS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 70S AS THUNDERSTORMS WORK THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WORKS INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 02Z. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 50KTS AND HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR MORE. IN
ADDITION ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

AS OF 21Z...A LINE OF STORM BACKBUILDED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ALMOST TO THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
IN SCHOHARIE COUNTY TRACKING NORTHWEST. PLACED A VCTS IN THE ALBANY
TAF THROUGH 00Z...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR REDUCED RAIN AND WIND GUSTS
TO 30KTS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE IMPACTING KGFL BUT TEMPERATURES THERE HAD DROPPED
INTO THE 70S...LOWERING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE WORKING TOWARD THE PITTSFIELD AIRPORT AS WELL AS
KPOU. BOTH SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY STORMS WITHIN THE HOUR. HAVE VCTS
IN BOTH TAFS...AND OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS AT LEAST TO MVFR (COULD
EASILY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR) DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH 25KTS OR BETTER.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV












000
FXUS61 KALY 232132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
530 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 432 CONTINUES. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO NEARLY 4000
J/KG ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...WAS ABOUT 30KTS
ACROSS AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

DESPITE MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0KM/C THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR CELLS TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO SEVERE
LIMITS.

WE HAVE ISSUED A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARNING...ONE JUST
NORTHEAST OF ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...THE OTHER IN COLUMBIA
COUNTY. MORE COULD FOLLOW...BUT EVERYONE HAS A BETTER THAN 50/50
CHANCE OF AT LEAST GETTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HEARING THUNDER.

IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CAPITAL REGION
WILL BE FROM NOW THROUGH 600 PM...ASSUMING A LINE TO OUR NORTHWEST
HOLDS TOGETHER AND MOVES THROUGH. THIS COULD IMPACT THE TAIL END OF
EVENING DRIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN....LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN THE
VALLEYS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 70S AS THUNDERSTORMS WORK THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WORKS INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 02Z. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 50KTS AND HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR MORE. IN
ADDITION ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

AS OF 21Z...A LINE OF STORM BACKBUILDED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ALMOST TO THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
IN SCHOHARIE COUNTY TRACKING NORTHWEST. PLACED A VCTS IN THE ALBANY
TAF THROUGH 00Z...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR REDUCED RAIN AND WIND GUSTS
TO 30KTS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE IMPACTING KGFL BUT TEMPERATURES THERE HAD DROPPED
INTO THE 70S...LOWERING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE WORKING TOWARD THE PITTSFIELD AIRPORT AS WELL AS
KPOU. BOTH SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY STORMS WITHIN THE HOUR. HAVE VCTS
IN BOTH TAFS...AND OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS AT LEAST TO MVFR (COULD
EASILY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR) DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH 25KTS OR BETTER.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV












000
FXUS61 KALY 232117
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
515 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 432 CONTINUES. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO NEARLY 4000
J/KG ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...WAS ABOUT 30KTS
ACROSS AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

DESPITE MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0KM/C THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR CELLS TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO SEVERE
LIMITS.

WE HAVE ISSUED A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARNING...ONE JUST
NORTHEAST OF ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...THE OTHER IN COLUMBIA
COUNTY. MORE COULD FOLLOW...BUT EVERYONE HAS A BETTER THAN 50/50
CHANCE OF AT LEAST GETTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HEARING THUNDER.

IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CAPITAL REGION
WILL BE FROM NOW THROUGH 600 PM...ASSUMING A LINE TO OUR NORTHWEST
HOLDS TOGETHER AND MOVES THROUGH. THIS COULD IMPACT THE TAIL END OF
EVENING DRIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN....LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN THE
VALLEYS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 70S AS THUNDERSTORMS WORK THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WORKS INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
TIMING INDICATED IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z
AT KGFL AND KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER
INTERSECTION NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR
STORM BEFORE 22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY.  WILL AMEND ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE
CONDITIONS LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
COULD BE GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 232117
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
515 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 515 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 432 CONTINUES. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO NEARLY 4000
J/KG ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...WAS ABOUT 30KTS
ACROSS AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

DESPITE MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0KM/C THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR CELLS TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO SEVERE
LIMITS.

WE HAVE ISSUED A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARNING...ONE JUST
NORTHEAST OF ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...THE OTHER IN COLUMBIA
COUNTY. MORE COULD FOLLOW...BUT EVERYONE HAS A BETTER THAN 50/50
CHANCE OF AT LEAST GETTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HEARING THUNDER.

IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CAPITAL REGION
WILL BE FROM NOW THROUGH 600 PM...ASSUMING A LINE TO OUR NORTHWEST
HOLDS TOGETHER AND MOVES THROUGH. THIS COULD IMPACT THE TAIL END OF
EVENING DRIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN....LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN THE
VALLEYS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 70S AS THUNDERSTORMS WORK THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WORKS INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
TIMING INDICATED IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z
AT KGFL AND KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER
INTERSECTION NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR
STORM BEFORE 22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY.  WILL AMEND ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE
CONDITIONS LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
COULD BE GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 232028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
1000 PM. INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO OVER 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION...AND THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO
30KTS...MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
MODEST...GENERALLY 5.5-6 KM/C.

RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...WHILE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS TRYING TO FORM ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR REGION JUST YET...A
BUT A FEW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM BURLINGTON/S AND BINGHAMTON/S
OFFICE WITH REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL.

AT THE VERY LEAST...STRONG INSTABILITY...A REDUCTION IN THE MID
LEVEL CAP (MID LEVEL COOLING)...WILL PRODUCE PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS EASILY CAPABLE OF REACHING "SEVERE" LIMITS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 58 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OR
LARGE HAIL AN INCH OR MORE. THE THREAT IS HIGHER FOR STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS.

THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED LINES OF
BOWING SEGMENTS. EITHER WAY...WE HAVE THE WATCH OUT.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS. DEWPOINTS WERE AROUND 70...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES WELL
INTO THE 90S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S BUT EVEN
HERE...HEAT INDICES WERE AROUND 90.

THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION WORKS INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN
BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
TIMING INDICATED IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z
AT KGFL AND KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER
INTERSECTION NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR
STORM BEFORE 22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY.  WILL AMEND ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE
CONDITIONS LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
COULD BE GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 232028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
1000 PM. INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO OVER 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION...AND THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO
30KTS...MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
MODEST...GENERALLY 5.5-6 KM/C.

RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...WHILE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS TRYING TO FORM ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR REGION JUST YET...A
BUT A FEW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM BURLINGTON/S AND BINGHAMTON/S
OFFICE WITH REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL.

AT THE VERY LEAST...STRONG INSTABILITY...A REDUCTION IN THE MID
LEVEL CAP (MID LEVEL COOLING)...WILL PRODUCE PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS EASILY CAPABLE OF REACHING "SEVERE" LIMITS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 58 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OR
LARGE HAIL AN INCH OR MORE. THE THREAT IS HIGHER FOR STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS.

THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED LINES OF
BOWING SEGMENTS. EITHER WAY...WE HAVE THE WATCH OUT.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS. DEWPOINTS WERE AROUND 70...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES WELL
INTO THE 90S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S BUT EVEN
HERE...HEAT INDICES WERE AROUND 90.

THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION WORKS INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN
BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
TIMING INDICATED IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z
AT KGFL AND KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER
INTERSECTION NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR
STORM BEFORE 22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY.  WILL AMEND ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE
CONDITIONS LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
COULD BE GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 232028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
1000 PM. INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO OVER 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION...AND THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO
30KTS...MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
MODEST...GENERALLY 5.5-6 KM/C.

RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...WHILE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS TRYING TO FORM ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR REGION JUST YET...A
BUT A FEW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM BURLINGTON/S AND BINGHAMTON/S
OFFICE WITH REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL.

AT THE VERY LEAST...STRONG INSTABILITY...A REDUCTION IN THE MID
LEVEL CAP (MID LEVEL COOLING)...WILL PRODUCE PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS EASILY CAPABLE OF REACHING "SEVERE" LIMITS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 58 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OR
LARGE HAIL AN INCH OR MORE. THE THREAT IS HIGHER FOR STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS.

THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED LINES OF
BOWING SEGMENTS. EITHER WAY...WE HAVE THE WATCH OUT.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS. DEWPOINTS WERE AROUND 70...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES WELL
INTO THE 90S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S BUT EVEN
HERE...HEAT INDICES WERE AROUND 90.

THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION WORKS INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN
BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
TIMING INDICATED IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z
AT KGFL AND KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER
INTERSECTION NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR
STORM BEFORE 22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY.  WILL AMEND ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE
CONDITIONS LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
COULD BE GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 232028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
1000 PM. INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO OVER 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION...AND THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO
30KTS...MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
MODEST...GENERALLY 5.5-6 KM/C.

RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...WHILE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS TRYING TO FORM ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR REGION JUST YET...A
BUT A FEW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM BURLINGTON/S AND BINGHAMTON/S
OFFICE WITH REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL.

AT THE VERY LEAST...STRONG INSTABILITY...A REDUCTION IN THE MID
LEVEL CAP (MID LEVEL COOLING)...WILL PRODUCE PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS EASILY CAPABLE OF REACHING "SEVERE" LIMITS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 58 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OR
LARGE HAIL AN INCH OR MORE. THE THREAT IS HIGHER FOR STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS.

THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED LINES OF
BOWING SEGMENTS. EITHER WAY...WE HAVE THE WATCH OUT.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS. DEWPOINTS WERE AROUND 70...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES WELL
INTO THE 90S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S BUT EVEN
HERE...HEAT INDICES WERE AROUND 90.

THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION WORKS INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN
BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER).

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S.

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT
MODERATE LEVELS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION
THUNDER AS WELL.

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
TIMING INDICATED IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z
AT KGFL AND KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER
INTERSECTION NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR
STORM BEFORE 22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY.  WILL AMEND ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE
CONDITIONS LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
COULD BE GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM









000
FXUS61 KBOX 232018
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT TRIGGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CENTRAL HILLS. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY SOUTHEAST OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *

415 PM MESO-UPDATE...

CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED THROUGH ITHACA NY UP TO
MONTPELIER VT...AND WILL CONTINUE A EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BELIEVE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL POP- UP /JUST LIKE THEY ARE IN MOHAWK VALLEY REGION/. THEN
EXPECT A MORE BROKEN LINE SEGMENT TO MOVE THROUGH BY THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.

LOOKING AT SPC MESO ANALYSIS...SB CAPE VALUES HAVE REACHED TO 2500
J/KG WITH NOT MUCH IN THE TERMS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. RAP 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY...AND ARE NOW 15-20 KTS. AS OF 20Z...THE STRONGER WIND
SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE STILL SITUATED ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
LOCATED PER THE K-INDEX. HENCE WHY THE STORMS ARE SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES.

OVERVIEW AND INTO TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE CURRENTLY LACKING
MOISTURE AND SHEAR AS MENTIONED ABOVE...RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO 00Z. THEREFORE
BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THE FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WITH LACK OF SOLAR HEATING BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENT THINKING THOUGH IS THAT SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT BEEN
WORKED OVER AND THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LINGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT BELIEVE THAT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LINGER TIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT. BY THEN THE STORMS WILL ENTER THE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA WHICH IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE ADVECTING
MARITIME AIR FROM TODAYS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT HAVE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER DISCUSSING WITH SPC
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVERLAPPING
ONE ANOTHER. THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH THE EC AND NAM SHOW A WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE SLOW DOWN WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
THE OUTLIER ON PUSHING THE FRONT THOUGH BY 12Z. IN FACT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STILL ACROSS UPSTATE NY BY 12/15Z RESULTING IN
CLOUDS AND THE CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL LINGER ESP FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THAT BY 00Z THE
FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OFFSHORE BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS.
BECAUSE OF THE SLOW DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL WAVE
DEVELOPMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN A
COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THEN TODAY. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES...SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO FRIDAY
 - RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
 - SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
 - A RETURN OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER BY MIDWEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SURPRISING PATTERN AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF JULY! AS PRESENT NW
PACIFIC IMPULSE EJECTS E IT COUPLES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PARKED
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN TROUGH ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE N-ATLANTIC AND
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE W-CONUS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC IMPULSE
BOTTLED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN BUCKLES.
WITH THE STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE...ANOMALOUS CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SIGNAL A -3 TO -4 SD IN
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY.

BUT A NOTE OF CAUTION: SIMILAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OUT TO D8 AND INTO
EARLY AUGUST ARE EXHIBITING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITHIN NAO/PNA
TRENDS. IT IS WITH NO CERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.
THIS MAKES THE FORECAST OVER THE NE-CONUS DIFFICULT FURTHER OUT IN
TIME AS NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. JUST A SLIGHT WOBBLE OF THE OVERALL
BUCKLED PATTERN E OR W CAN RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST.

FEEL THE DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WARRANTS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE FORECAST. WILL HIT ON
THE MAIN POINTS ALONG WITH ANY PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES
BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THINKING A DRY FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
SHIFTING SE. FEEL THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT WAVE LOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS. SHOWERS DISSIPATING /IF ANY/ TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS
DYNAMICS ARE SHUNTED OUT OF THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/ FOLLOWED BY RETURN
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SLIDES
E/SE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE W. SEASONABLE WX
INITIALLY...BUT EXPECT THE RETURN OF WARMER/MUGGIER CONDITIONS BY
SATURDAY. LOOKING CLEAR FOR FRIDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND THE PROXIMITY OF ITS E-PERIPHERY ARE
KEYS TO THE FORECAST /AS IS THE OFFSHORE ENHACING RIDGE ACROSS THE N-
ATLANTIC/. THE TRACK TIMING AND MORPHOLOGY OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES
THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL
OUTCOMES FOR THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SEEMINGLY AN INITIAL IMPULSE IS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY /PERHAPS A MCS/ WHERE THERMAL/MOIST
AXES AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY CONVERGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALONG
THE NOSE OF A LLJ REAR OF AN ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT. THE MORE ZONAL
REGIME ADVECTS THIS ACTIVITY W-TO-E. NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PRESENTS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. BUT EARLY IN TIME AND LIKELY
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER...THREAT MAY BE LIMITED. HINTS OF MID-LEVEL
DRYING AND WAKE SUBSIDENCE? JUST A HUGE MESS. MAY BE LOOKING AT MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WHO KNOWS...JUST
A FIRST GUESS. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE PLUME OF PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES AND A POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. SOME CONFIDENCE OF
THAT AT LEAST.

INTO MONDAY...THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT OCCLUDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN WARM/MUGGY/UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...CONVECTION IS LIKELY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO GO INTO DETAIL. MANY
QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER THE ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE BENEATH
STRONG SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. APPEARS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
YEESH. AGAIN...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. ONLY CONFIDENCE IS WITH SURGING
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2-INCHES CONINTUING THE POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING.

A FINAL NOTE...EVALUATING THE 23.0Z AND 23.12Z CIPS ANALOGS...BOTH
PING UPON POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE THREATS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WITH
THE 23.12Z ANALOGS /UP TO 70-PERCENT/. SO WHILE THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST STILL WARRANTS
CLOSE MONITORING.

AT SOME POINT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH E BEHIND WHICH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE OCCULUSION SHOULD PREVAIL RESULTING IN
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. WHETHER THIS OCCURS ON TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY...JUST TOO UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH 22Z...GENERALLY VFR.

AFTER 22Z INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSRA MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS
FORMING TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO START IN ANTICIPATED
RAIN OR SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXCEPT ALONG AND SE OF A PYM-UUU LINE
WHICH MAY STAY IN LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY...IMPROVING LATE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. TSTMS
POSSIBLE AFT 00Z TO THE N AND W OF BOS AND CLOSER TO THE AIRFIELD
ITSELF BY 03Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 22Z. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -RA MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/. SCT-BKN 5 KFT
CIGS SATURDAY WITH BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

PERIODS OF RA/TSRA. MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...WORST OF WHICH
ANTICIPATED DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND +RA. CONTINUED BLUSTERY
S/SW WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THEREFORESCA
IS STILL IN EFFECT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SE OUTER-
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE GOOD AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/.
WINDS VEER S/SW OVERNIGHT AND BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WEATHER TURNING SOUR. INCREASE S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER
THE S-WATERS ESPECIALLY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 232018
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT TRIGGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CENTRAL HILLS. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY SOUTHEAST OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *

415 PM MESO-UPDATE...

CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED THROUGH ITHACA NY UP TO
MONTPELIER VT...AND WILL CONTINUE A EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BELIEVE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL POP- UP /JUST LIKE THEY ARE IN MOHAWK VALLEY REGION/. THEN
EXPECT A MORE BROKEN LINE SEGMENT TO MOVE THROUGH BY THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.

LOOKING AT SPC MESO ANALYSIS...SB CAPE VALUES HAVE REACHED TO 2500
J/KG WITH NOT MUCH IN THE TERMS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. RAP 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY...AND ARE NOW 15-20 KTS. AS OF 20Z...THE STRONGER WIND
SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE STILL SITUATED ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
LOCATED PER THE K-INDEX. HENCE WHY THE STORMS ARE SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES.

OVERVIEW AND INTO TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE CURRENTLY LACKING
MOISTURE AND SHEAR AS MENTIONED ABOVE...RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO 00Z. THEREFORE
BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THE FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WITH LACK OF SOLAR HEATING BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENT THINKING THOUGH IS THAT SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT BEEN
WORKED OVER AND THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LINGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT BELIEVE THAT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LINGER TIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT. BY THEN THE STORMS WILL ENTER THE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA WHICH IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE ADVECTING
MARITIME AIR FROM TODAYS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT HAVE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER DISCUSSING WITH SPC
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVERLAPPING
ONE ANOTHER. THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH THE EC AND NAM SHOW A WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE SLOW DOWN WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
THE OUTLIER ON PUSHING THE FRONT THOUGH BY 12Z. IN FACT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STILL ACROSS UPSTATE NY BY 12/15Z RESULTING IN
CLOUDS AND THE CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL LINGER ESP FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THAT BY 00Z THE
FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OFFSHORE BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS.
BECAUSE OF THE SLOW DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL WAVE
DEVELOPMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN A
COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THEN TODAY. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES...SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO FRIDAY
 - RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
 - SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
 - A RETURN OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER BY MIDWEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SURPRISING PATTERN AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF JULY! AS PRESENT NW
PACIFIC IMPULSE EJECTS E IT COUPLES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PARKED
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN TROUGH ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE N-ATLANTIC AND
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE W-CONUS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC IMPULSE
BOTTLED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN BUCKLES.
WITH THE STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE...ANOMALOUS CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SIGNAL A -3 TO -4 SD IN
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY.

BUT A NOTE OF CAUTION: SIMILAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OUT TO D8 AND INTO
EARLY AUGUST ARE EXHIBITING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITHIN NAO/PNA
TRENDS. IT IS WITH NO CERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.
THIS MAKES THE FORECAST OVER THE NE-CONUS DIFFICULT FURTHER OUT IN
TIME AS NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. JUST A SLIGHT WOBBLE OF THE OVERALL
BUCKLED PATTERN E OR W CAN RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST.

FEEL THE DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WARRANTS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE FORECAST. WILL HIT ON
THE MAIN POINTS ALONG WITH ANY PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES
BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THINKING A DRY FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
SHIFTING SE. FEEL THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT WAVE LOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS. SHOWERS DISSIPATING /IF ANY/ TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS
DYNAMICS ARE SHUNTED OUT OF THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/ FOLLOWED BY RETURN
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SLIDES
E/SE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE W. SEASONABLE WX
INITIALLY...BUT EXPECT THE RETURN OF WARMER/MUGGIER CONDITIONS BY
SATURDAY. LOOKING CLEAR FOR FRIDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND THE PROXIMITY OF ITS E-PERIPHERY ARE
KEYS TO THE FORECAST /AS IS THE OFFSHORE ENHACING RIDGE ACROSS THE N-
ATLANTIC/. THE TRACK TIMING AND MORPHOLOGY OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES
THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL
OUTCOMES FOR THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SEEMINGLY AN INITIAL IMPULSE IS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY /PERHAPS A MCS/ WHERE THERMAL/MOIST
AXES AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY CONVERGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALONG
THE NOSE OF A LLJ REAR OF AN ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT. THE MORE ZONAL
REGIME ADVECTS THIS ACTIVITY W-TO-E. NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PRESENTS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. BUT EARLY IN TIME AND LIKELY
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER...THREAT MAY BE LIMITED. HINTS OF MID-LEVEL
DRYING AND WAKE SUBSIDENCE? JUST A HUGE MESS. MAY BE LOOKING AT MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WHO KNOWS...JUST
A FIRST GUESS. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE PLUME OF PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES AND A POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. SOME CONFIDENCE OF
THAT AT LEAST.

INTO MONDAY...THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT OCCLUDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN WARM/MUGGY/UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...CONVECTION IS LIKELY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO GO INTO DETAIL. MANY
QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER THE ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE BENEATH
STRONG SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. APPEARS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
YEESH. AGAIN...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. ONLY CONFIDENCE IS WITH SURGING
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2-INCHES CONINTUING THE POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING.

A FINAL NOTE...EVALUATING THE 23.0Z AND 23.12Z CIPS ANALOGS...BOTH
PING UPON POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE THREATS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WITH
THE 23.12Z ANALOGS /UP TO 70-PERCENT/. SO WHILE THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST STILL WARRANTS
CLOSE MONITORING.

AT SOME POINT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH E BEHIND WHICH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE OCCULUSION SHOULD PREVAIL RESULTING IN
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. WHETHER THIS OCCURS ON TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY...JUST TOO UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH 22Z...GENERALLY VFR.

AFTER 22Z INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSRA MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS
FORMING TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO START IN ANTICIPATED
RAIN OR SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXCEPT ALONG AND SE OF A PYM-UUU LINE
WHICH MAY STAY IN LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY...IMPROVING LATE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. TSTMS
POSSIBLE AFT 00Z TO THE N AND W OF BOS AND CLOSER TO THE AIRFIELD
ITSELF BY 03Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 22Z. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -RA MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/. SCT-BKN 5 KFT
CIGS SATURDAY WITH BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

PERIODS OF RA/TSRA. MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...WORST OF WHICH
ANTICIPATED DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND +RA. CONTINUED BLUSTERY
S/SW WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THEREFORESCA
IS STILL IN EFFECT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SE OUTER-
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE GOOD AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/.
WINDS VEER S/SW OVERNIGHT AND BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WEATHER TURNING SOUR. INCREASE S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER
THE S-WATERS ESPECIALLY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 232018
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT TRIGGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CENTRAL HILLS. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY SOUTHEAST OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *

415 PM MESO-UPDATE...

CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED THROUGH ITHACA NY UP TO
MONTPELIER VT...AND WILL CONTINUE A EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BELIEVE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL POP- UP /JUST LIKE THEY ARE IN MOHAWK VALLEY REGION/. THEN
EXPECT A MORE BROKEN LINE SEGMENT TO MOVE THROUGH BY THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.

LOOKING AT SPC MESO ANALYSIS...SB CAPE VALUES HAVE REACHED TO 2500
J/KG WITH NOT MUCH IN THE TERMS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. RAP 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY...AND ARE NOW 15-20 KTS. AS OF 20Z...THE STRONGER WIND
SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE STILL SITUATED ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
LOCATED PER THE K-INDEX. HENCE WHY THE STORMS ARE SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES.

OVERVIEW AND INTO TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE CURRENTLY LACKING
MOISTURE AND SHEAR AS MENTIONED ABOVE...RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO 00Z. THEREFORE
BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THE FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WITH LACK OF SOLAR HEATING BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENT THINKING THOUGH IS THAT SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT BEEN
WORKED OVER AND THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LINGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT BELIEVE THAT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LINGER TIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT. BY THEN THE STORMS WILL ENTER THE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA WHICH IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE ADVECTING
MARITIME AIR FROM TODAYS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT HAVE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER DISCUSSING WITH SPC
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVERLAPPING
ONE ANOTHER. THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH THE EC AND NAM SHOW A WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE SLOW DOWN WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
THE OUTLIER ON PUSHING THE FRONT THOUGH BY 12Z. IN FACT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STILL ACROSS UPSTATE NY BY 12/15Z RESULTING IN
CLOUDS AND THE CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL LINGER ESP FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THAT BY 00Z THE
FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OFFSHORE BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS.
BECAUSE OF THE SLOW DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL WAVE
DEVELOPMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN A
COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THEN TODAY. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES...SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO FRIDAY
 - RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
 - SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
 - A RETURN OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER BY MIDWEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SURPRISING PATTERN AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF JULY! AS PRESENT NW
PACIFIC IMPULSE EJECTS E IT COUPLES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PARKED
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN TROUGH ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE N-ATLANTIC AND
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE W-CONUS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC IMPULSE
BOTTLED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN BUCKLES.
WITH THE STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE...ANOMALOUS CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SIGNAL A -3 TO -4 SD IN
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY.

BUT A NOTE OF CAUTION: SIMILAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OUT TO D8 AND INTO
EARLY AUGUST ARE EXHIBITING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITHIN NAO/PNA
TRENDS. IT IS WITH NO CERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.
THIS MAKES THE FORECAST OVER THE NE-CONUS DIFFICULT FURTHER OUT IN
TIME AS NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. JUST A SLIGHT WOBBLE OF THE OVERALL
BUCKLED PATTERN E OR W CAN RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST.

FEEL THE DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WARRANTS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE FORECAST. WILL HIT ON
THE MAIN POINTS ALONG WITH ANY PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES
BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THINKING A DRY FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
SHIFTING SE. FEEL THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT WAVE LOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS. SHOWERS DISSIPATING /IF ANY/ TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS
DYNAMICS ARE SHUNTED OUT OF THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/ FOLLOWED BY RETURN
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SLIDES
E/SE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE W. SEASONABLE WX
INITIALLY...BUT EXPECT THE RETURN OF WARMER/MUGGIER CONDITIONS BY
SATURDAY. LOOKING CLEAR FOR FRIDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND THE PROXIMITY OF ITS E-PERIPHERY ARE
KEYS TO THE FORECAST /AS IS THE OFFSHORE ENHACING RIDGE ACROSS THE N-
ATLANTIC/. THE TRACK TIMING AND MORPHOLOGY OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES
THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL
OUTCOMES FOR THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SEEMINGLY AN INITIAL IMPULSE IS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY /PERHAPS A MCS/ WHERE THERMAL/MOIST
AXES AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY CONVERGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALONG
THE NOSE OF A LLJ REAR OF AN ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT. THE MORE ZONAL
REGIME ADVECTS THIS ACTIVITY W-TO-E. NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PRESENTS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. BUT EARLY IN TIME AND LIKELY
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER...THREAT MAY BE LIMITED. HINTS OF MID-LEVEL
DRYING AND WAKE SUBSIDENCE? JUST A HUGE MESS. MAY BE LOOKING AT MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WHO KNOWS...JUST
A FIRST GUESS. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE PLUME OF PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES AND A POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. SOME CONFIDENCE OF
THAT AT LEAST.

INTO MONDAY...THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT OCCLUDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN WARM/MUGGY/UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...CONVECTION IS LIKELY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO GO INTO DETAIL. MANY
QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER THE ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE BENEATH
STRONG SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. APPEARS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
YEESH. AGAIN...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. ONLY CONFIDENCE IS WITH SURGING
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2-INCHES CONINTUING THE POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING.

A FINAL NOTE...EVALUATING THE 23.0Z AND 23.12Z CIPS ANALOGS...BOTH
PING UPON POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE THREATS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WITH
THE 23.12Z ANALOGS /UP TO 70-PERCENT/. SO WHILE THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST STILL WARRANTS
CLOSE MONITORING.

AT SOME POINT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH E BEHIND WHICH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE OCCULUSION SHOULD PREVAIL RESULTING IN
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. WHETHER THIS OCCURS ON TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY...JUST TOO UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH 22Z...GENERALLY VFR.

AFTER 22Z INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSRA MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS
FORMING TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO START IN ANTICIPATED
RAIN OR SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXCEPT ALONG AND SE OF A PYM-UUU LINE
WHICH MAY STAY IN LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY...IMPROVING LATE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. TSTMS
POSSIBLE AFT 00Z TO THE N AND W OF BOS AND CLOSER TO THE AIRFIELD
ITSELF BY 03Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 22Z. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -RA MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/. SCT-BKN 5 KFT
CIGS SATURDAY WITH BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

PERIODS OF RA/TSRA. MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...WORST OF WHICH
ANTICIPATED DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND +RA. CONTINUED BLUSTERY
S/SW WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THEREFORESCA
IS STILL IN EFFECT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SE OUTER-
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE GOOD AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/.
WINDS VEER S/SW OVERNIGHT AND BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WEATHER TURNING SOUR. INCREASE S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER
THE S-WATERS ESPECIALLY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 232018
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT TRIGGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CENTRAL HILLS. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY SOUTHEAST OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *

415 PM MESO-UPDATE...

CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED THROUGH ITHACA NY UP TO
MONTPELIER VT...AND WILL CONTINUE A EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BELIEVE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL POP- UP /JUST LIKE THEY ARE IN MOHAWK VALLEY REGION/. THEN
EXPECT A MORE BROKEN LINE SEGMENT TO MOVE THROUGH BY THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.

LOOKING AT SPC MESO ANALYSIS...SB CAPE VALUES HAVE REACHED TO 2500
J/KG WITH NOT MUCH IN THE TERMS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. RAP 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY...AND ARE NOW 15-20 KTS. AS OF 20Z...THE STRONGER WIND
SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE STILL SITUATED ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
LOCATED PER THE K-INDEX. HENCE WHY THE STORMS ARE SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES.

OVERVIEW AND INTO TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE CURRENTLY LACKING
MOISTURE AND SHEAR AS MENTIONED ABOVE...RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO 00Z. THEREFORE
BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THE FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WITH LACK OF SOLAR HEATING BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENT THINKING THOUGH IS THAT SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT BEEN
WORKED OVER AND THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LINGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT BELIEVE THAT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LINGER TIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT. BY THEN THE STORMS WILL ENTER THE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA WHICH IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE ADVECTING
MARITIME AIR FROM TODAYS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT HAVE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER DISCUSSING WITH SPC
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVERLAPPING
ONE ANOTHER. THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THURSDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH THE EC AND NAM SHOW A WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE SLOW DOWN WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
THE OUTLIER ON PUSHING THE FRONT THOUGH BY 12Z. IN FACT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STILL ACROSS UPSTATE NY BY 12/15Z RESULTING IN
CLOUDS AND THE CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL LINGER ESP FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR. BELIEVE THAT BY 00Z THE
FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OFFSHORE BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ESP FOR THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS.
BECAUSE OF THE SLOW DOWN AND THE POTENTIAL WAVE
DEVELOPMENT...CANT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN A
COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THEN TODAY. ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES...SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - DRY AND SEASONABLE INTO FRIDAY
 - RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
 - SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
 - A RETURN OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER BY MIDWEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SURPRISING PATTERN AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF JULY! AS PRESENT NW
PACIFIC IMPULSE EJECTS E IT COUPLES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PARKED
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN TROUGH ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE N-ATLANTIC AND
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE W-CONUS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC IMPULSE
BOTTLED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...THE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN BUCKLES.
WITH THE STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE...ANOMALOUS CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SIGNAL A -3 TO -4 SD IN
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY.

BUT A NOTE OF CAUTION: SIMILAR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OUT TO D8 AND INTO
EARLY AUGUST ARE EXHIBITING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITHIN NAO/PNA
TRENDS. IT IS WITH NO CERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.
THIS MAKES THE FORECAST OVER THE NE-CONUS DIFFICULT FURTHER OUT IN
TIME AS NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. JUST A SLIGHT WOBBLE OF THE OVERALL
BUCKLED PATTERN E OR W CAN RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST.

FEEL THE DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WARRANTS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE FORECAST. WILL HIT ON
THE MAIN POINTS ALONG WITH ANY PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES
BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THINKING A DRY FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
SHIFTING SE. FEEL THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT WAVE LOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS. SHOWERS DISSIPATING /IF ANY/ TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS
DYNAMICS ARE SHUNTED OUT OF THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW SWEEPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/ FOLLOWED BY RETURN
BREEZY S/SW-FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH SLIDES
E/SE AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE W. SEASONABLE WX
INITIALLY...BUT EXPECT THE RETURN OF WARMER/MUGGIER CONDITIONS BY
SATURDAY. LOOKING CLEAR FOR FRIDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND THE PROXIMITY OF ITS E-PERIPHERY ARE
KEYS TO THE FORECAST /AS IS THE OFFSHORE ENHACING RIDGE ACROSS THE N-
ATLANTIC/. THE TRACK TIMING AND MORPHOLOGY OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES
THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL
OUTCOMES FOR THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SEEMINGLY AN INITIAL IMPULSE IS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY /PERHAPS A MCS/ WHERE THERMAL/MOIST
AXES AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY CONVERGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALONG
THE NOSE OF A LLJ REAR OF AN ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT. THE MORE ZONAL
REGIME ADVECTS THIS ACTIVITY W-TO-E. NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PRESENTS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. BUT EARLY IN TIME AND LIKELY
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER...THREAT MAY BE LIMITED. HINTS OF MID-LEVEL
DRYING AND WAKE SUBSIDENCE? JUST A HUGE MESS. MAY BE LOOKING AT MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WHO KNOWS...JUST
A FIRST GUESS. BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE PLUME OF PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES AND A POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. SOME CONFIDENCE OF
THAT AT LEAST.

INTO MONDAY...THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT OCCLUDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN WARM/MUGGY/UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...CONVECTION IS LIKELY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...BUT IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO GO INTO DETAIL. MANY
QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER THE ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE BENEATH
STRONG SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. APPEARS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWED BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
YEESH. AGAIN...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. ONLY CONFIDENCE IS WITH SURGING
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2-INCHES CONINTUING THE POSSIBLE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING.

A FINAL NOTE...EVALUATING THE 23.0Z AND 23.12Z CIPS ANALOGS...BOTH
PING UPON POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE THREATS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WITH
THE 23.12Z ANALOGS /UP TO 70-PERCENT/. SO WHILE THE ABOVE DISCUSSION
CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST STILL WARRANTS
CLOSE MONITORING.

AT SOME POINT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH E BEHIND WHICH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE OCCULUSION SHOULD PREVAIL RESULTING IN
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. WHETHER THIS OCCURS ON TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY...JUST TOO UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH 22Z...GENERALLY VFR.

AFTER 22Z INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSRA MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS
FORMING TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO START IN ANTICIPATED
RAIN OR SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXCEPT ALONG AND SE OF A PYM-UUU LINE
WHICH MAY STAY IN LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY...IMPROVING LATE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. TSTMS
POSSIBLE AFT 00Z TO THE N AND W OF BOS AND CLOSER TO THE AIRFIELD
ITSELF BY 03Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 22Z. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. -RA MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER NW FLOW. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR ON FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/. SCT-BKN 5 KFT
CIGS SATURDAY WITH BREEZY S/SW WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

PERIODS OF RA/TSRA. MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...WORST OF WHICH
ANTICIPATED DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND +RA. CONTINUED BLUSTERY
S/SW WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...THEREFORESCA
IS STILL IN EFFECT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SE OUTER-
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE GOOD AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT NW-FLOW FRIDAY /SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES/.
WINDS VEER S/SW OVERNIGHT AND BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

WEATHER TURNING SOUR. INCREASE S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER
THE S-WATERS ESPECIALLY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 231849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
233 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 1000 PM. INSTABILITY
HAS INCREASED TO OVER 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AND THE
0-6KM BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 30KTS OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE MODEST...GENERALLY 5.5-6 KM/C.

AT THE VERY LEAST...STRONG INSTABILITY...A REDUCTION IN THE MID
LEVEL CAP (MID LEVEL COOLING)...WILL PRODUCE PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS EASILY CAPABLE OF REACHING "SEVERE" LIMITS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 58 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OR
LARGE HAIL AN INCH OR MORE. THE THREAT IS HIGHER FOR STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS.

THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED LINES OF
BOWING SEGMENTS. EITHER WAY...WE HAVE THE WATCH OUT.

TEMPERATURES WERE FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS. DEWPOINTS WERE AROUND 70...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES WELL INTO
THE 90S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S BUT EVEN
HERE...HEAT INDICES WERE AROUND 90.

THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION WORKS INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN
BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TIMING INDICATED
IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z AT KGFL AND
KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER INTERSECTION
NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR STORM BEFORE
22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY.  WILL AMEND ONCE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT INDICATED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE CONDITIONS
LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE GUSTY
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 231849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
233 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 1000 PM. INSTABILITY
HAS INCREASED TO OVER 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AND THE
0-6KM BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 30KTS OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE MODEST...GENERALLY 5.5-6 KM/C.

AT THE VERY LEAST...STRONG INSTABILITY...A REDUCTION IN THE MID
LEVEL CAP (MID LEVEL COOLING)...WILL PRODUCE PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS EASILY CAPABLE OF REACHING "SEVERE" LIMITS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 58 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OR
LARGE HAIL AN INCH OR MORE. THE THREAT IS HIGHER FOR STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS.

THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED LINES OF
BOWING SEGMENTS. EITHER WAY...WE HAVE THE WATCH OUT.

TEMPERATURES WERE FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS. DEWPOINTS WERE AROUND 70...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES WELL INTO
THE 90S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S BUT EVEN
HERE...HEAT INDICES WERE AROUND 90.

THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION WORKS INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN
BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THEN).

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TIMING INDICATED
IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z AT KGFL AND
KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER INTERSECTION
NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR STORM BEFORE
22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY.  WILL AMEND ONCE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT INDICATED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE CONDITIONS
LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE GUSTY
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KBOX 231840
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
240 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-495 AND NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE AND I-84. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY SOUTHEAST
OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH
DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED THROUGH SYRACUSE NY AND
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS IT APPROACHES ANTICIPATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP-UP AT FIRST BUT THEN A
MORE BROKEN LINE SEGMENT TO MOVE THROUGH BY THE EVENING HOURS.

LOOKING AT SPC MESO ANALYSIS...SB CAPE VALUES HAVE REACHED TO 2500
J/KG WITH NOT MUCH IN THE TERMS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAP 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK AS WELL...WITH
ONLY 10-15 KTS. AS OF 18Z...THE STRONGER WIND SHEAR AND UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE STILL SITUATED UP NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS ALSO WHERE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LOCATED PER THE K-INDEX.
HENCE WHY THE STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW
YORK.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF THESE
PARAMETERS WILL ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR
FOR US RIGHT NOW IS THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SHEAR...WHICH
IS NOT PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z.
THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT JUST A FEW ISOLATED LOW TOP SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 00Z THE FRONT WOULD HAVE
MOVED CLOSER TO THE REGION WITH BETTER SHEAR AND MOISTURE. THE ONE
THING TO BE CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE NOT BEING WORKED OVER AND THE WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE
BOILING OVER THE REGION TODAY BELIEVE ONCE THE STORMS MOVE INTO
THE REGION THEY WILL EAT UP ANY INSTABILITY AND DEVELOP INTO
STRONG STORMS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT HAVE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
AFTER DISCUSSING WITH SPC DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE
LOCATIONS THAT ARE PROGGED TO HAVE THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR FOR WHEN/IF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THOSE LOCATIONS.
MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AS PWATS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
FOUR FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO
NORTHERN CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE QUEBEC TROUGH HANGS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA...THE TROUGH
AXIS AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY.  THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH RUNS OVER THE TOP OF THE
ROCKIES RIDGE...THEN MERGES WITH THE QUEBEC LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRAWS THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE BLOCKS OFF THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THIS MERGER. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CREATES A
SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH
OTHER. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION...BUT WITH
THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER JET
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE JET SHIFTS
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHOULD THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS. WE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT. IF THE JET
POSITION AT 00Z IS AS ADVERTISED...WE MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON EVENING POPS. OTHERWISE THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD
TREND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO END ANY REMAINING PCPN AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH
DRY WEATHER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS...A LITTLE WARMER
SATURDAY.

ONE CONCERN WILL BE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
DOWN AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE EASTERN COAST. OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS LATTER
CONCERN COULD DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND PROMOTE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. BUT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 700 MB BELOW 50 PERCENT. WILL KEEP SKY COVER LOW FRIDAY...THEN
INCREASING CIRRUS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE DIGS AS IT APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES AND GENERATES A SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY WITH 35-40 KNOT
WINDS AT 850 AND 900 MB. AS THIS MOVES EAST IT WILL BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5
INCHES BY SUNDAY. THE LIFTING OF THIS AIR OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LAYER WOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. WE WILL MENTION CHANCE
POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE MERGING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SHOWING FROPA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER US. WITH NO CLEAR TREND ON A DAY 7
FORECAST...WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDANCE SOLUTION OF
DIMINISHING POPS TUESDAY.  BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH 22Z...GENERALLY VFR.

AFTER 22Z INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSRA MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS
FORMING TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO START IN ANTICIPATED
RAIN OR SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXCEPT ALONG AND SE OF A PYM-UUU LINE
WHICH MAY STAY IN LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY...IMPROVING LATE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. TSTMS
POSSIBLE AFT 00Z TO THE N AND W OF BOS AND CLOSER TO THE AIRFIELD
ITSELF AFT 03Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 22Z. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...
VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE WATERS. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5
FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN...ACROSS THE E PORTION OF STELLWAGEN
BANK...AND E OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WIND WAVE
WILL BE FORMED FROM THE SW FLOW...THERE IS ALSO A SWELL THAT IS
ENCROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE EAST. ALTHOUGH OF FAIRLY
LOW AMPLITUDE OF LESS THAN 3 FEET...THE SWELL APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE EAST FACING COAST. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THURSDAY
NIGHT BECOMES LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.  SEAS 4
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH WARMER MORE HUMID
AIR AND WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS/TSTMS. INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS...APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS TO 5 OR 6 FEET.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 231840
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
240 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-495 AND NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE AND I-84. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY SOUTHEAST
OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH
DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *

CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED THROUGH SYRACUSE NY AND
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS IT APPROACHES ANTICIPATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP-UP AT FIRST BUT THEN A
MORE BROKEN LINE SEGMENT TO MOVE THROUGH BY THE EVENING HOURS.

LOOKING AT SPC MESO ANALYSIS...SB CAPE VALUES HAVE REACHED TO 2500
J/KG WITH NOT MUCH IN THE TERMS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. RAP 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK AS WELL...WITH
ONLY 10-15 KTS. AS OF 18Z...THE STRONGER WIND SHEAR AND UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE STILL SITUATED UP NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS ALSO WHERE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LOCATED PER THE K-INDEX.
HENCE WHY THE STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW
YORK.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF THESE
PARAMETERS WILL ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR
FOR US RIGHT NOW IS THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SHEAR...WHICH
IS NOT PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z.
THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT JUST A FEW ISOLATED LOW TOP SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 00Z THE FRONT WOULD HAVE
MOVED CLOSER TO THE REGION WITH BETTER SHEAR AND MOISTURE. THE ONE
THING TO BE CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE NOT BEING WORKED OVER AND THE WARM...MOIST ATMOSPHERE
BOILING OVER THE REGION TODAY BELIEVE ONCE THE STORMS MOVE INTO
THE REGION THEY WILL EAT UP ANY INSTABILITY AND DEVELOP INTO
STRONG STORMS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT HAVE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
AFTER DISCUSSING WITH SPC DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE
LOCATIONS THAT ARE PROGGED TO HAVE THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR FOR WHEN/IF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THOSE LOCATIONS.
MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AS PWATS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
FOUR FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO
NORTHERN CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE QUEBEC TROUGH HANGS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA...THE TROUGH
AXIS AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY.  THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH RUNS OVER THE TOP OF THE
ROCKIES RIDGE...THEN MERGES WITH THE QUEBEC LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRAWS THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE BLOCKS OFF THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THIS MERGER. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CREATES A
SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH
OTHER. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION...BUT WITH
THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER JET
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE JET SHIFTS
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHOULD THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS. WE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT. IF THE JET
POSITION AT 00Z IS AS ADVERTISED...WE MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON EVENING POPS. OTHERWISE THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD
TREND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO END ANY REMAINING PCPN AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH
DRY WEATHER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS...A LITTLE WARMER
SATURDAY.

ONE CONCERN WILL BE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
DOWN AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE EASTERN COAST. OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS LATTER
CONCERN COULD DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND PROMOTE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. BUT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 700 MB BELOW 50 PERCENT. WILL KEEP SKY COVER LOW FRIDAY...THEN
INCREASING CIRRUS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE DIGS AS IT APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES AND GENERATES A SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY WITH 35-40 KNOT
WINDS AT 850 AND 900 MB. AS THIS MOVES EAST IT WILL BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5
INCHES BY SUNDAY. THE LIFTING OF THIS AIR OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LAYER WOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. WE WILL MENTION CHANCE
POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE MERGING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SHOWING FROPA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER US. WITH NO CLEAR TREND ON A DAY 7
FORECAST...WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDANCE SOLUTION OF
DIMINISHING POPS TUESDAY.  BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH 22Z...GENERALLY VFR.

AFTER 22Z INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSRA MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS
FORMING TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO START IN ANTICIPATED
RAIN OR SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXCEPT ALONG AND SE OF A PYM-UUU LINE
WHICH MAY STAY IN LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY...IMPROVING LATE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. TSTMS
POSSIBLE AFT 00Z TO THE N AND W OF BOS AND CLOSER TO THE AIRFIELD
ITSELF AFT 03Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 22Z. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...
VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE WATERS. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5
FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN...ACROSS THE E PORTION OF STELLWAGEN
BANK...AND E OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WIND WAVE
WILL BE FORMED FROM THE SW FLOW...THERE IS ALSO A SWELL THAT IS
ENCROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE EAST. ALTHOUGH OF FAIRLY
LOW AMPLITUDE OF LESS THAN 3 FEET...THE SWELL APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE EAST FACING COAST. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THURSDAY
NIGHT BECOMES LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.  SEAS 4
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH WARMER MORE HUMID
AIR AND WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS/TSTMS. INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS...APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS TO 5 OR 6 FEET.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 231724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...RADARS INDICATED A FEW CELLS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE COLD FRONT
WAS WORKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH PERHAPS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY INTO THE MID 80S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY SO
FOR THIS UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED SOME OF THESE UP SEVERAL
DEGREES...WHICH WOULD MEAN THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD APPROACH OR
EVEN ECLIPSE 90 DEGREES.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...BUMPED TEMPERATURES UPWARD...RE-TOOLED HOURLY
GRIDS BUT LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE.

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM...WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE CAPPED AT MIDLEVELS HERE IN
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT AGAIN...UPSTREAM...THE CAP
IS MUCH LESS.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...BUT ENOUGH SO THAT
THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN NY NOW...BUT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN NY...AS SHEAR
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONGER ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS.

IT COULD BE A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE AN
STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED ACTIVITY IN OUR REGION SHOULD
BLOSSOM BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM.

MORE ANALYSIS OF GUIDANCE WAS DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD WHICH
IS BELOW...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH HEAT
INDICES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT COOLER ACROSS THE ADRIONDACKS WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW 80. A SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15
MPH WILL DO LITTLE TO STIFLE THE HEAT. HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO COOL US DOWN AFTER 400 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TIMING INDICATED
IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z AT KGFL AND
KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER INTERSECTION
NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR STORM BEFORE
22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY.  WILL AMEND ONCE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT INDICATED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE CONDITIONS
LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE GUSTY
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM













000
FXUS61 KALY 231724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...RADARS INDICATED A FEW CELLS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE COLD FRONT
WAS WORKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH PERHAPS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY INTO THE MID 80S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY SO
FOR THIS UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED SOME OF THESE UP SEVERAL
DEGREES...WHICH WOULD MEAN THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD APPROACH OR
EVEN ECLIPSE 90 DEGREES.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...BUMPED TEMPERATURES UPWARD...RE-TOOLED HOURLY
GRIDS BUT LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE.

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM...WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE CAPPED AT MIDLEVELS HERE IN
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT AGAIN...UPSTREAM...THE CAP
IS MUCH LESS.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...BUT ENOUGH SO THAT
THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN NY NOW...BUT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN NY...AS SHEAR
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONGER ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS.

IT COULD BE A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE AN
STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED ACTIVITY IN OUR REGION SHOULD
BLOSSOM BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM.

MORE ANALYSIS OF GUIDANCE WAS DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD WHICH
IS BELOW...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH HEAT
INDICES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT COOLER ACROSS THE ADRIONDACKS WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW 80. A SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15
MPH WILL DO LITTLE TO STIFLE THE HEAT. HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO COOL US DOWN AFTER 400 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND TIMING INDICATED
IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z AT KGFL AND
KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER INTERSECTION
NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR STORM BEFORE
22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY.  WILL AMEND ONCE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT INDICATED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE CONDITIONS
LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE GUSTY
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM












000
FXUS61 KALY 231634
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...RADARS INDICATED A FEW CELLS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE COLD FRONT
WAS WORKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH PERHAPS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY INTO THE MID 80S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY SO
FOR THIS UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED SOME OF THESE UP SEVERAL
DEGREES...WHICH WOULD MEAN THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD APPROACH OR
EVEN ECLIPSE 90 DEGREES.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...BUMPED TEMPERATURES UPWARD...RE-TOOLED HOURLY
GRIDS BUT LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE.

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM...WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE CAPPED AT MIDLEVELS HERE IN
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT AGAIN...UPSTREAM...THE CAP
IS MUCH LESS.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...BUT ENOUGH SO THAT
THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN NY NOW...BUT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN NY...AS SHEAR
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONGER ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS.

IT COULD BE A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE AN
STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED ACTIVITY IN OUR REGION SHOULD
BLOSSOM BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM.

MORE ANALYSIS OF GUIDANCE WAS DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD WHICH
IS BELOW...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH HEAT
INDICES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT COOLER ACROSS THE ADRIONDACKS WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW 80. A SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15
MPH WILL DO LITTLE TO STIFLE THE HEAT. HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO COOL US DOWN AFTER 400 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KPSF FROM 12Z-14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE
NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS...BORDERING ON IFR...TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

WE WILL START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY
SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 231634
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...RADARS INDICATED A FEW CELLS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE COLD FRONT
WAS WORKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH PERHAPS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY INTO THE MID 80S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY SO
FOR THIS UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED SOME OF THESE UP SEVERAL
DEGREES...WHICH WOULD MEAN THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD APPROACH OR
EVEN ECLIPSE 90 DEGREES.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...BUMPED TEMPERATURES UPWARD...RE-TOOLED HOURLY
GRIDS BUT LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE.

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM...WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE CAPPED AT MIDLEVELS HERE IN
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT AGAIN...UPSTREAM...THE CAP
IS MUCH LESS.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...BUT ENOUGH SO THAT
THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN NY NOW...BUT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN NY...AS SHEAR
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONGER ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS.

IT COULD BE A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE AN
STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED ACTIVITY IN OUR REGION SHOULD
BLOSSOM BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM.

MORE ANALYSIS OF GUIDANCE WAS DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD WHICH
IS BELOW...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH HEAT
INDICES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT COOLER ACROSS THE ADRIONDACKS WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW 80. A SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15
MPH WILL DO LITTLE TO STIFLE THE HEAT. HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO COOL US DOWN AFTER 400 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KPSF FROM 12Z-14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE
NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS...BORDERING ON IFR...TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

WE WILL START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY
SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 231634
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...RADARS INDICATED A FEW CELLS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE COLD FRONT
WAS WORKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH PERHAPS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY INTO THE MID 80S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY SO
FOR THIS UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED SOME OF THESE UP SEVERAL
DEGREES...WHICH WOULD MEAN THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD APPROACH OR
EVEN ECLIPSE 90 DEGREES.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...BUMPED TEMPERATURES UPWARD...RE-TOOLED HOURLY
GRIDS BUT LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE.

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM...WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE CAPPED AT MIDLEVELS HERE IN
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT AGAIN...UPSTREAM...THE CAP
IS MUCH LESS.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...BUT ENOUGH SO THAT
THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN NY NOW...BUT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN NY...AS SHEAR
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONGER ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS.

IT COULD BE A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE AN
STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED ACTIVITY IN OUR REGION SHOULD
BLOSSOM BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM.

MORE ANALYSIS OF GUIDANCE WAS DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD WHICH
IS BELOW...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH HEAT
INDICES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT COOLER ACROSS THE ADRIONDACKS WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW 80. A SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15
MPH WILL DO LITTLE TO STIFLE THE HEAT. HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO COOL US DOWN AFTER 400 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KPSF FROM 12Z-14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE
NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS...BORDERING ON IFR...TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

WE WILL START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY
SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 231634
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...RADARS INDICATED A FEW CELLS POPPING UP ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE COLD FRONT
WAS WORKING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH PERHAPS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY INTO THE MID 80S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY SO
FOR THIS UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED SOME OF THESE UP SEVERAL
DEGREES...WHICH WOULD MEAN THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD APPROACH OR
EVEN ECLIPSE 90 DEGREES.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...BUMPED TEMPERATURES UPWARD...RE-TOOLED HOURLY
GRIDS BUT LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE.

AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM...WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE CAPPED AT MIDLEVELS HERE IN
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT AGAIN...UPSTREAM...THE CAP
IS MUCH LESS.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...BUT ENOUGH SO THAT
THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN NY NOW...BUT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN NY...AS SHEAR
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONGER ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS.

IT COULD BE A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH REGARD TO COVERAGE AN
STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED ACTIVITY IN OUR REGION SHOULD
BLOSSOM BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM.

MORE ANALYSIS OF GUIDANCE WAS DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD WHICH
IS BELOW...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH HEAT
INDICES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT COOLER ACROSS THE ADRIONDACKS WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW 80. A SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15
MPH WILL DO LITTLE TO STIFLE THE HEAT. HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO COOL US DOWN AFTER 400 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KPSF FROM 12Z-14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE
NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS...BORDERING ON IFR...TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

WE WILL START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY
SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KBOX 231458
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1058 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-495 AND NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE AND I-84. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY SOUTHEAST
OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH
DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

OVERALL TREND FOR THE LATE MORNING HOURS IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.
COLD FRONT IS SITUATED BACK ACROSS BUFFALO AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO POP UP ACROSS
THE SYRACUSE REGION. BELIEVE THAT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
FRONT TO APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THUS DELAYING STORM
INITIATION UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON.

MIXING IS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH HYA GUSTING TO
28KTS AND BID AT 23KTS. EXPECT GUSTS TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY REACHING 20-30 MPH. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR US TO MIX WELL UP
TO 800 MB. THIS HELP TEMPS WARM UP TO OR ABOVE 90F SO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *
* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

MID AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS  AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND MOVE/REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST THIS
EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINALLY STRONG ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF POCKETS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I495 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THIS IS CLOSE
TO ALTHOUGH JUST A TAD BROADER THAN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICES AND CAPE ALL POINT TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBCAPES OF 1200 TO 1800 J/KG INDICATED WITH
THE 00Z GFS AND 2500 TO 3000+ J/KG PER THE NAM...WHICH HAS A
TENDENCY TO OVERDO THE CAPE. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWATERS DROP TO
AROUND -3 AND K INDICES REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND TOTAL
TOTALS APPROACH 50. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AROUND
11K FT AT THE START OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS THE CAP ERODING BY MID
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE
EAST. AT THE VERY LEAST THE INSTABILITY ALONE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR.

THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE...HOWEVER...IS MARGINAL AT BEST...25
TO 30 KT AND EVEN WEAKER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WORCESTER AREA.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET WHICH APPROACHES THIS EVENING BUT NOT IDEALLY SITUATED
OVER THE AREA UNTIL THU MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE SE COASTAL WATERS. A MORE GENERAL SYNOPTIC RECOGNITION
OF THIS EVENT SUGGESTS THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION IN AT LEAST WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
PROBABLY IN A WEAKENED STATE IN THE EAST LATER INTO THE EVENING.
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND WESTERN
CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WORKS ACROSS SW NH AND CENTRAL MA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND MORE INTO NE MA LATER INTO THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BUT WEAKENS. IT CURRENTLY SEEMS DOUBTFUL WHETHER DEEP
CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE PAST THE BOS TO PVD CORRIDOR.

PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER...WE PERCEIVE A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT OVER A
SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE NW INTERIOR BOUNDED TO THE EAST BY I495 AND
TO THE SOUTH BY THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THE TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY 4 PM TO 11 PM...STARTING IN THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH METRO BOSTON LATER IN THE EVENING BUT LIKELY IN A WEAKENED
STATE.

WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR INTENSE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THIS CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE DO NOT SEE A STRONG TROPICAL PLUME CONNECTION AND SO
CONTINUE TO BE INCLINED TO HOLD OFF ON PUTTING A LARGE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL STILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...A THREAT THAT MAY
PERSIST TONIGHT AFTER THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT HAS FADED.

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
FOUR FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO
NORTHERN CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE QUEBEC TROUGH HANGS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA...THE TROUGH
AXIS AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY.  THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH RUNS OVER THE TOP OF THE
ROCKIES RIDGE...THEN MERGES WITH THE QUEBEC LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRAWS THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE BLOCKS OFF THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THIS MERGER. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CREATES A
SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH
OTHER. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION...BUT WITH
THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER JET
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE JET SHIFTS
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHOULD THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS. WE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT. IF THE JET
POSITION AT 00Z IS AS ADVERTISED...WE MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON EVENING POPS. OTHERWISE THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD
TREND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO END ANY REMAINING PCPN AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH
DRY WEATHER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS...A LITTLE WARMER
SATURDAY.

ONE CONCERN WILL BE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
DOWN AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE EASTERN COAST. OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS LATTER
CONCERN COULD DESTABLIZE THE AIRMASS AND PROMOTE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. BUT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 700 MB BELOW 50 PERCENT. WILL KEEP SKY COVER LOW FRIDAY...THEN
INCREASING CIRRUS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE DIGS AS IT APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES AND GENERATES A SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY WITH 35-40 KNOT
WINDS AT 850 AND 900 MB. AS THIS MOVES EAST IT WILL BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5
INCHES BY SUNDAY. THE LIFTING OF THIS AIR OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LAYER WOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. WE WILL MENTION CHANCE
POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE MERGING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SHOWING FROPA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER US. WITH NO CLEAR TREND ON A DAY 7
FORECAST...WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDENCE SOLUTION OF
DIMINISHING POPS TUESDAY.  BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY VFR. LOW CLOUDS AT BLOCK
ISLAND SHOULD BREAK BY MID MORNING. AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IS MOVING NORTHEAST. ON IR IMAGERY IT LOOKED
LIKE CIRRUS. ON EARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY IT LOOKS A LITTLE THICKER.
7 AM OBSERVATONS IN SRN CT SUGGEST SOME CLOUDS AROUND 10 THOUSAND
FEET MAY BE MIXED IN. WE HAVE EXTRAPOLATED THESE THICKER CLOUDS
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS THIS MORNING...MOVING OFF CAPE COD
AROUND MIDDAY.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR LOW
CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.
THIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY HIGH RISK OF AREAS OF IFR CIGS FORMING
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ANTICIPATED IN RAIN OR SHOWERS ALONG AND SE OF A PYM-UUU LINE
DURING MUCH OF THU...IMPROVING LATE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
DAY. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 23Z TO THE N AND W OF BOS AND CLOSER TO
THE AIRFIELD ITSELF AFT 01Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 21Z. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...
VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE WATERS. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5
FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN...ACROSS THE E PORTION OF STELLWAGEN
BANK...AND E OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WIND WAVE
WILL BE FORMED FROM THE SW FLOW...THERE IS ALSO A SWELL THAT IS
ENCROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE EAST. ALTHOUGH OF FAIRLY
LOW AMPLITUDE OF LESS THAN 3 FEET...THE SWELL APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE EAST FACING COAST. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THURSDAY
NIGHT BECOMES LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.  SEAS 4
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH WARMER MORE HUMID
AIR AND WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS/TSTMS. INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS...APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS TO 5 OR 6 FEET.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE THIS MORNING WHILE CONSTRUCTION
TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO THE START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KALY 231431
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1031 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM...WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE CAPPED AT MIDLEVELS HERE IN
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT AGAIN...UPSTREAM...THE CAP
IS MUCH LESS.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...BUT ENOUGH SO THAT
THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN NY NOW...BUT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN NY...AS SHEAR
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONGER ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY AND DEW POINT BOUNDARY IS RIGHT
ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT IS QUITE TIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL
FOR ENHANCED MESOSCALE FORCING WITHIN THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY. IT COULD BE A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH REGARD
TO COVERAGE AN STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. WE WILL KNOW MORE SPECIFICS ONCE ALL THE
NEW GUIDANCE IS IN...AND TRENDS IN DATA ARE CLEARER INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

MORE ANALYSIS OF GUIDANCE WAS DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD WHICH
IS BELOW...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KPSF FROM 12Z-14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE
NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS...BORDERING ON IFR...TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

WE WILL START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY
SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 231431
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1031 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM...WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE CAPPED AT MIDLEVELS HERE IN
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT AGAIN...UPSTREAM...THE CAP
IS MUCH LESS.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG...BUT ENOUGH SO THAT
THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN NY NOW...BUT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN NY...AS SHEAR
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONGER ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY AND DEW POINT BOUNDARY IS RIGHT
ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT IS QUITE TIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL
FOR ENHANCED MESOSCALE FORCING WITHIN THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY. IT COULD BE A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH REGARD
TO COVERAGE AN STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. WE WILL KNOW MORE SPECIFICS ONCE ALL THE
NEW GUIDANCE IS IN...AND TRENDS IN DATA ARE CLEARER INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

MORE ANALYSIS OF GUIDANCE WAS DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD WHICH
IS BELOW...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KPSF FROM 12Z-14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE
NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS...BORDERING ON IFR...TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

WE WILL START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY
SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 231126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.  LINE OF
CONVECTION UPSTREAM HAS WEAKENED.  HOWEVER...AS SEEN IN THE
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP TOWARD NOON AND
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.  SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVERAGE
A BIT.  REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KPSF FROM 12Z-14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE
NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS...BORDERING ON IFR...TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

WE WILL START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY
SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY












000
FXUS61 KALY 231126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.  LINE OF
CONVECTION UPSTREAM HAS WEAKENED.  HOWEVER...AS SEEN IN THE
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP TOWARD NOON AND
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.  SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVERAGE
A BIT.  REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KPSF FROM 12Z-14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE
NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS...BORDERING ON IFR...TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

WE WILL START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY
SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY











000
FXUS61 KBOX 231059
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-495 AND NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE AND I-84. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY SOUTHEAST
OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH
DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR A PATCH OF CIRRUS AND ALTOCU MOVING ACROSS
LONG ISLAND. 7 AM OBSERVATION FROM S CENTRAL CT SHOWS 9000
FEET...SO CLOUDS MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO HIDE THE SUN FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS THIS MORNING. EXTRAPOLATION MOVES IT EAST OF CAPE COD BY
MIDDAY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 18C WITH AT LEAST HAZY SUN
SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 90F OR A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER WHERE THE WIND HAS A PREDOMINANTLY LAND TRAJECTORY. THE
COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 WILL
CERTAINLY MAKE IT FEEL HOT AND HUMID BUT WELL SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *
* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

MID AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS  AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND MOVE/REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST THIS
EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINALLY STRONG ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF POCKETS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I495 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THIS IS CLOSE
TO ALTHOUGH JUST A TAD BROADER THAN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICES AND CAPE ALL POINT TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBCAPES OF 1200 TO 1800 J/KG INDICATED WITH
THE 00Z GFS AND 2500 TO 3000+ J/KG PER THE NAM...WHICH HAS A
TENDENCY TO OVERDO THE CAPE. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWATERS DROP TO
AROUND -3 AND K INDICES REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND TOTAL
TOTALS APPROACH 50. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AROUND
11K FT AT THE START OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS THE CAP ERODING BY MID
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE
EAST. AT THE VERY LEAST THE INSTABILITY ALONE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR.

THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE...HOWEVER...IS MARGINAL AT BEST...25
TO 30 KT AND EVEN WEAKER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WORCESTER AREA.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET WHICH APPROACHES THIS EVENING BUT NOT IDEALLY SITUATED
OVER THE AREA UNTIL THU MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE SE COASTAL WATERS. A MORE GENERAL SYNOPTIC RECOGNITION
OF THIS EVENT SUGGESTS THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION IN AT LEAST WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
PROBABLY IN A WEAKENED STATE IN THE EAST LATER INTO THE EVENING.
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND WESTERN
CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WORKS ACROSS SW NH AND CENTRAL MA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND MORE INTO NE MA LATER INTO THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BUT WEAKENS. IT CURRENTLY SEEMS DOUBTFUL WHETHER DEEP
CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE PAST THE BOS TO PVD CORRIDOR.

PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER...WE PERCEIVE A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT OVER A
SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE NW INTERIOR BOUNDED TO THE EAST BY I495 AND
TO THE SOUTH BY THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THE TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY 4 PM TO 11 PM...STARTING IN THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH METRO BOSTON LATER IN THE EVENING BUT LIKELY IN A WEAKENED
STATE.

WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR INTENSE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THIS CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE DO NOT SEE A STRONG TROPICAL PLUME CONNECTION AND SO
CONTINUE TO BE INCLINED TO HOLD OFF ON PUTTING A LARGE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL STILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...A THREAT THAT MAY
PERSIST TONIGHT AFTER THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT HAS FADED.

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
FOUR FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO
NORTHERN CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE QUEBEC TROUGH HANGS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA...THE TROUGH
AXIS AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY.  THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH RUNS OVER THE TOP OF THE
ROCKIES RIDGE...THEN MERGES WITH THE QUEBEC LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRAWS THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE BLOCKS OFF THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THIS MERGER. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CREATES A
SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH
OTHER. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION...BUT WITH
THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER JET
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE JET SHIFTS
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHOULD THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS. WE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT. IF THE JET
POSITION AT 00Z IS AS ADVERTISED...WE MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON EVENING POPS. OTHERWISE THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD
TREND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO END ANY REMAINING PCPN AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH
DRY WEATHER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS...A LITTLE WARMER
SATURDAY.

ONE CONCERN WILL BE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
DOWN AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE EASTERN COAST. OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS LATTER
CONCERN COULD DESTABLIZE THE AIRMASS AND PROMOTE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. BUT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 700 MB BELOW 50 PERCENT. WILL KEEP SKY COVER LOW FRIDAY...THEN
INCREASING CIRRUS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE DIGS AS IT APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES AND GENERATES A SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY WITH 35-40 KNOT
WINDS AT 850 AND 900 MB. AS THIS MOVES EAST IT WILL BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5
INCHES BY SUNDAY. THE LIFTING OF THIS AIR OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LAYER WOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. WE WILL MENTION CHANCE
POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE MERGING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SHOWING FROPA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER US. WITH NO CLEAR TREND ON A DAY 7
FORECAST...WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDENCE SOLUTION OF
DIMINISHING POPS TUESDAY.  BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY VFR. LOW CLOUDS AT BLOCK
ISLAND SHOULD BREAK BY MID MORNING. AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IS MOVING NORTHEAST. ON IR IMAGERY IT LOOKED
LIKE CIRRUS. ON EARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY IT LOOKS A LITTLE THICKER.
7 AM OBSERVATONS IN SRN CT SUGGEST SOME CLOUDS AROUND 10 THOUSAND
FEET MAY BE MIXED IN. WE HAVE EXTRAPOLATED THESE THICKER CLOUDS
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS THIS MORNING...MOVING OFF CAPE COD
AROUND MIDDAY.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR LOW
CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.
THIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY HIGH RISK OF AREAS OF IFR CIGS FORMING
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ANTICIPATED IN RAIN OR SHOWERS ALONG AND SE OF A PYM-UUU LINE
DURING MUCH OF THU...IMPROVING LATE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
DAY. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 23Z TO THE N AND W OF BOS AND CLOSER TO
THE AIRFIELD ITSELF AFT 01Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 21Z. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...
VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE WATERS. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5
FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN...ACROSS THE E PORTION OF STELLWAGEN
BANK...AND E OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WIND WAVE
WILL BE FORMED FROM THE SW FLOW...THERE IS ALSO A SWELL THAT IS
ENCROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE EAST. ALTHOUGH OF FAIRLY
LOW AMPLITUDE OF LESS THAN 3 FEET...THE SWELL APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE EAST FACING COAST. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THURSDAY
NIGHT BECOMES LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.  SEAS 4
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH WARMER MORE HUMID
AIR AND WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS/TSTMS. INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS...APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS TO 5 OR 6 FEET.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE THIS MORNING WHILE CONSTRUCTION
TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO THE START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231059
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-495 AND NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE AND I-84. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY SOUTHEAST
OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH
DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR A PATCH OF CIRRUS AND ALTOCU MOVING ACROSS
LONG ISLAND. 7 AM OBSERVATION FROM S CENTRAL CT SHOWS 9000
FEET...SO CLOUDS MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO HIDE THE SUN FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS THIS MORNING. EXTRAPOLATION MOVES IT EAST OF CAPE COD BY
MIDDAY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 18C WITH AT LEAST HAZY SUN
SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 90F OR A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER WHERE THE WIND HAS A PREDOMINANTLY LAND TRAJECTORY. THE
COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 WILL
CERTAINLY MAKE IT FEEL HOT AND HUMID BUT WELL SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *
* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

MID AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS  AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND MOVE/REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST THIS
EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINALLY STRONG ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF POCKETS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I495 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THIS IS CLOSE
TO ALTHOUGH JUST A TAD BROADER THAN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICES AND CAPE ALL POINT TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBCAPES OF 1200 TO 1800 J/KG INDICATED WITH
THE 00Z GFS AND 2500 TO 3000+ J/KG PER THE NAM...WHICH HAS A
TENDENCY TO OVERDO THE CAPE. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWATERS DROP TO
AROUND -3 AND K INDICES REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND TOTAL
TOTALS APPROACH 50. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AROUND
11K FT AT THE START OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS THE CAP ERODING BY MID
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE
EAST. AT THE VERY LEAST THE INSTABILITY ALONE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR.

THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE...HOWEVER...IS MARGINAL AT BEST...25
TO 30 KT AND EVEN WEAKER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WORCESTER AREA.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET WHICH APPROACHES THIS EVENING BUT NOT IDEALLY SITUATED
OVER THE AREA UNTIL THU MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE SE COASTAL WATERS. A MORE GENERAL SYNOPTIC RECOGNITION
OF THIS EVENT SUGGESTS THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION IN AT LEAST WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
PROBABLY IN A WEAKENED STATE IN THE EAST LATER INTO THE EVENING.
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND WESTERN
CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WORKS ACROSS SW NH AND CENTRAL MA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND MORE INTO NE MA LATER INTO THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BUT WEAKENS. IT CURRENTLY SEEMS DOUBTFUL WHETHER DEEP
CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE PAST THE BOS TO PVD CORRIDOR.

PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER...WE PERCEIVE A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT OVER A
SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE NW INTERIOR BOUNDED TO THE EAST BY I495 AND
TO THE SOUTH BY THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THE TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY 4 PM TO 11 PM...STARTING IN THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH METRO BOSTON LATER IN THE EVENING BUT LIKELY IN A WEAKENED
STATE.

WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR INTENSE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THIS CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE DO NOT SEE A STRONG TROPICAL PLUME CONNECTION AND SO
CONTINUE TO BE INCLINED TO HOLD OFF ON PUTTING A LARGE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL STILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...A THREAT THAT MAY
PERSIST TONIGHT AFTER THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT HAS FADED.

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
FOUR FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO
NORTHERN CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE QUEBEC TROUGH HANGS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA...THE TROUGH
AXIS AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY.  THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH RUNS OVER THE TOP OF THE
ROCKIES RIDGE...THEN MERGES WITH THE QUEBEC LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRAWS THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE BLOCKS OFF THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THIS MERGER. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CREATES A
SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH
OTHER. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION...BUT WITH
THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER JET
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE JET SHIFTS
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHOULD THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS. WE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT. IF THE JET
POSITION AT 00Z IS AS ADVERTISED...WE MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON EVENING POPS. OTHERWISE THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD
TREND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO END ANY REMAINING PCPN AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH
DRY WEATHER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS...A LITTLE WARMER
SATURDAY.

ONE CONCERN WILL BE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
DOWN AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE EASTERN COAST. OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS LATTER
CONCERN COULD DESTABLIZE THE AIRMASS AND PROMOTE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. BUT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 700 MB BELOW 50 PERCENT. WILL KEEP SKY COVER LOW FRIDAY...THEN
INCREASING CIRRUS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE DIGS AS IT APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES AND GENERATES A SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY WITH 35-40 KNOT
WINDS AT 850 AND 900 MB. AS THIS MOVES EAST IT WILL BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5
INCHES BY SUNDAY. THE LIFTING OF THIS AIR OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LAYER WOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. WE WILL MENTION CHANCE
POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE MERGING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SHOWING FROPA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER US. WITH NO CLEAR TREND ON A DAY 7
FORECAST...WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDENCE SOLUTION OF
DIMINISHING POPS TUESDAY.  BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY VFR. LOW CLOUDS AT BLOCK
ISLAND SHOULD BREAK BY MID MORNING. AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IS MOVING NORTHEAST. ON IR IMAGERY IT LOOKED
LIKE CIRRUS. ON EARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY IT LOOKS A LITTLE THICKER.
7 AM OBSERVATONS IN SRN CT SUGGEST SOME CLOUDS AROUND 10 THOUSAND
FEET MAY BE MIXED IN. WE HAVE EXTRAPOLATED THESE THICKER CLOUDS
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS THIS MORNING...MOVING OFF CAPE COD
AROUND MIDDAY.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR LOW
CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.
THIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY HIGH RISK OF AREAS OF IFR CIGS FORMING
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ANTICIPATED IN RAIN OR SHOWERS ALONG AND SE OF A PYM-UUU LINE
DURING MUCH OF THU...IMPROVING LATE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
DAY. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 23Z TO THE N AND W OF BOS AND CLOSER TO
THE AIRFIELD ITSELF AFT 01Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 21Z. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...
VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE WATERS. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5
FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN...ACROSS THE E PORTION OF STELLWAGEN
BANK...AND E OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WIND WAVE
WILL BE FORMED FROM THE SW FLOW...THERE IS ALSO A SWELL THAT IS
ENCROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE EAST. ALTHOUGH OF FAIRLY
LOW AMPLITUDE OF LESS THAN 3 FEET...THE SWELL APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE EAST FACING COAST. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THURSDAY
NIGHT BECOMES LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.  SEAS 4
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH WARMER MORE HUMID
AIR AND WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS/TSTMS. INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS...APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS TO 5 OR 6 FEET.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE THIS MORNING WHILE CONSTRUCTION
TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO THE START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KALY 231032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.  LINE OF
CONVECTION UPSTREAM HAS WEAKENED.  HOWEVER...AS SEEN IN THE
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP TOWARD NOON AND
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.  SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVERAGE
A BIT.  REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR KGFL WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KGFL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY









000
FXUS61 KALY 231032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.  LINE OF
CONVECTION UPSTREAM HAS WEAKENED.  HOWEVER...AS SEEN IN THE
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP TOWARD NOON AND
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.  SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVERAGE
A BIT.  REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR KGFL WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KGFL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY









000
FXUS61 KALY 231032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.  LINE OF
CONVECTION UPSTREAM HAS WEAKENED.  HOWEVER...AS SEEN IN THE
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP TOWARD NOON AND
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.  SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVERAGE
A BIT.  REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR KGFL WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KGFL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY









000
FXUS61 KALY 231032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.  LINE OF
CONVECTION UPSTREAM HAS WEAKENED.  HOWEVER...AS SEEN IN THE
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP TOWARD NOON AND
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION.  SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVERAGE
A BIT.  REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE...

THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR KGFL WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KGFL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY









000
FXUS61 KBOX 230842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
442 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-495 AND NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE AND I-84. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY SOUTHEAST
OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH
DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 18C WITH AT LEAST HAZY SUN
SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 90F OR A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER WHERE THE WIND HAS A PREDOMINANTLY LAND TRAJECTORY. THE
COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 WILL
CERTAINLY MAKE IT FEEL HOT AND HUMID BUT WELL SHY OF HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *
* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS  AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND MOVE/REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST THIS
EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINALLY STRONG ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF POCKETS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I495 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THIS IS CLOSE
TO ALTHOUGH JUST A TAD BROADER THAN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICES AND CAPE ALL POINT TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBCAPES OF 1200 TO 1800 J/KG INDICATED WITH
THE 00Z GFS AND 2500 TO 3000+ J/KG PER THE NAM...WHICH HAS A
TENDENCY TO OVERDO THE CAPE. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWATERS DROP TO
AROUND -3 AND K INDICES REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND TOTAL
TOTALS APPROACH 50. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AROUND
11K FT AT THE START OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS THE CAP ERODING BY MID
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE
EAST. AT THE VERY LEAST THE INSTABILITY ALONE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR.

THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE...HOWEVER...IS MARGINAL AT BEST...25
TO 30 KT AND EVEN WEAKER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WORCESTER AREA.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET WHICH APPROACHES THIS EVENING BUT NOT IDEALLY SITUATED
OVER THE AREA UNTIL THU MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE SE COASTAL WATERS. A MORE GENERAL SYNOPTIC RECOGNITION
OF THIS EVENT SUGGESTS THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION IN AT LEAST WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
PROBABLY IN A WEAKENED STATE IN THE EAST LATER INTO THE EVENING.
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND WESTERN
CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WORKS ACROSS SW NH AND CENTRAL MA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND MORE INTO NE MA LATER INTO THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BUT WEAKENS. IT CURRENTLY SEEMS DOUBTFUL WHETHER DEEP
CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE PAST THE BOS TO PVD CORRIDOR.

PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER...WE PERCEIVE A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT OVER A
SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE NW INTERIOR BOUNDED TO THE EAST BY I495 AND
TO THE SOUTH BY THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THE TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY 4 PM TO 11 PM...STARTING IN THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH METRO BOSTON LATER IN THE EVENING BUT LIKELY IN A WEAKENED
STATE.

WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR INTENSE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THIS CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE DO NOT SEE A STRONG TROPICAL PLUME CONNECTION AND SO
CONTINUE TO BE INCLINED TO HOLD OFF ON PUTTING A LARGE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL STILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...A THREAT THAT MAY
PERSIST TONIGHT AFTER THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT HAS FADED.

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
FOUR FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO
NORTHERN CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE QUEBEC TROUGH HANGS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA...THE TROUGH
AXIS AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY.  THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH RUNS OVER THE TOP OF THE
ROCKIES RIDGE...THEN MERGES WITH THE QUEBEC LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRAWS THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE BLOCKS OFF THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THIS MERGER. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CREATES A
SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH
OTHER. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION...BUT WITH
THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER JET
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE JET SHIFTS
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHOULD THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS. WE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT. IF THE JET
POSITION AT 00Z IS AS ADVERTISED...WE MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON EVENING POPS. OTHERWISE THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD
TREND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO END ANY REMAINING PCPN AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH
DRY WEATHER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS...A LITTLE WARMER
SATURDAY.

ONE CONCERN WILL BE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
DOWN AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE EASTERN COAST. OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS LATTER
CONCERN COULD DESTABLIZE THE AIRMASS AND PROMOTE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. BUT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 700 MB BELOW 50 PERCENT. WILL KEEP SKY COVER LOW FRIDAY...THEN
INCREASING CIRRUS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE DIGS AS IT APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES AND GENERATES A SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY WITH 35-40 KNOT
WINDS AT 850 AND 900 MB. AS THIS MOVES EAST IT WILL BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5
INCHES BY SUNDAY. THE LIFTING OF THIS AIR OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LAYER WOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. WE WILL MENTION CHANCE
POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE MERGING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SHOWING FROPA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER US. WITH NO CLEAR TREND ON A DAY 7
FORECAST...WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDENCE SOLUTION OF
DIMINISHING POPS TUESDAY.  BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...GENERALLY VFR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS BURNING OFF WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR LOW
CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.
THIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY HIGH RISK OF AREAS OF IFR CIGS FORMING
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ANTICIPATED IN RAIN OR SHOWERS ALONG AND SE OF A PYM-UUU LINE
DURING MUCH OF THU...IMPROVING LATE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
DAY. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 23Z TO THE N AND W OF BOS AND CLOSER TO
THE AIRFIELD ITSELF AFT 01Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 21Z. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...
VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE WATERS. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5
FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN...ACROSS THE E PORTION OF STELLWAGEN
BANK...AND E OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WIND WAVE
WILL BE FORMED FROM THE SW FLOW...THERE IS ALSO A SWELL THAT IS
ENCROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE EAST. ALTHOUGH OF FAIRLY
LOW AMPLITUDE OF LESS THAN 3 FEET...THE SWELL APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE EAST FACING COAST. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THURSDAY
NIGHT BECOMES LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.  SEAS 4
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH WARMER MORE HUMID
AIR AND WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS/TSTMS. INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS...APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS TO 5 OR 6 FEET.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE THIS MORNING WHILE CONSTRUCTION
TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO THE START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
442 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-495 AND NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE AND I-84. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THURSDAY SOUTHEAST
OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH
DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 18C WITH AT LEAST HAZY SUN
SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 90F OR A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER WHERE THE WIND HAS A PREDOMINANTLY LAND TRAJECTORY. THE
COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 WILL
CERTAINLY MAKE IT FEEL HOT AND HUMID BUT WELL SHY OF HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *
* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS  AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND MOVE/REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST THIS
EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINALLY STRONG ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF POCKETS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I495 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THIS IS CLOSE
TO ALTHOUGH JUST A TAD BROADER THAN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICES AND CAPE ALL POINT TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBCAPES OF 1200 TO 1800 J/KG INDICATED WITH
THE 00Z GFS AND 2500 TO 3000+ J/KG PER THE NAM...WHICH HAS A
TENDENCY TO OVERDO THE CAPE. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWATERS DROP TO
AROUND -3 AND K INDICES REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND TOTAL
TOTALS APPROACH 50. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AROUND
11K FT AT THE START OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS THE CAP ERODING BY MID
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE
EAST. AT THE VERY LEAST THE INSTABILITY ALONE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR.

THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE...HOWEVER...IS MARGINAL AT BEST...25
TO 30 KT AND EVEN WEAKER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WORCESTER AREA.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET WHICH APPROACHES THIS EVENING BUT NOT IDEALLY SITUATED
OVER THE AREA UNTIL THU MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE SE COASTAL WATERS. A MORE GENERAL SYNOPTIC RECOGNITION
OF THIS EVENT SUGGESTS THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION IN AT LEAST WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
PROBABLY IN A WEAKENED STATE IN THE EAST LATER INTO THE EVENING.
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND WESTERN
CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WORKS ACROSS SW NH AND CENTRAL MA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND MORE INTO NE MA LATER INTO THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BUT WEAKENS. IT CURRENTLY SEEMS DOUBTFUL WHETHER DEEP
CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE PAST THE BOS TO PVD CORRIDOR.

PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER...WE PERCEIVE A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT OVER A
SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE NW INTERIOR BOUNDED TO THE EAST BY I495 AND
TO THE SOUTH BY THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THE TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY 4 PM TO 11 PM...STARTING IN THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH METRO BOSTON LATER IN THE EVENING BUT LIKELY IN A WEAKENED
STATE.

WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR INTENSE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THIS CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE DO NOT SEE A STRONG TROPICAL PLUME CONNECTION AND SO
CONTINUE TO BE INCLINED TO HOLD OFF ON PUTTING A LARGE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL STILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...A THREAT THAT MAY
PERSIST TONIGHT AFTER THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT HAS FADED.

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
FOUR FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO
NORTHERN CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE QUEBEC TROUGH HANGS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA...THE TROUGH
AXIS AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY.  THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH RUNS OVER THE TOP OF THE
ROCKIES RIDGE...THEN MERGES WITH THE QUEBEC LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRAWS THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE BLOCKS OFF THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THIS MERGER. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CREATES A
SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH
OTHER. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION...BUT WITH
THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER JET
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE JET SHIFTS
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHOULD THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS. WE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT. IF THE JET
POSITION AT 00Z IS AS ADVERTISED...WE MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON EVENING POPS. OTHERWISE THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD
TREND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO END ANY REMAINING PCPN AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH
DRY WEATHER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS...A LITTLE WARMER
SATURDAY.

ONE CONCERN WILL BE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
DOWN AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE EASTERN COAST. OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS LATTER
CONCERN COULD DESTABLIZE THE AIRMASS AND PROMOTE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. BUT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 700 MB BELOW 50 PERCENT. WILL KEEP SKY COVER LOW FRIDAY...THEN
INCREASING CIRRUS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE DIGS AS IT APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES AND GENERATES A SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY WITH 35-40 KNOT
WINDS AT 850 AND 900 MB. AS THIS MOVES EAST IT WILL BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5
INCHES BY SUNDAY. THE LIFTING OF THIS AIR OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LAYER WOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. WE WILL MENTION CHANCE
POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE MERGING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SHOWING FROPA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER US. WITH NO CLEAR TREND ON A DAY 7
FORECAST...WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDENCE SOLUTION OF
DIMINISHING POPS TUESDAY.  BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...GENERALLY VFR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS BURNING OFF WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR LOW
CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.
THIS SUGGESTS A FAIRLY HIGH RISK OF AREAS OF IFR CIGS FORMING
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ANTICIPATED IN RAIN OR SHOWERS ALONG AND SE OF A PYM-UUU LINE
DURING MUCH OF THU...IMPROVING LATE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
DAY. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 23Z TO THE N AND W OF BOS AND CLOSER TO
THE AIRFIELD ITSELF AFT 01Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 21Z. ANY
TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...
VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS MANY OF THE WATERS. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5
FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN...ACROSS THE E PORTION OF STELLWAGEN
BANK...AND E OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WIND WAVE
WILL BE FORMED FROM THE SW FLOW...THERE IS ALSO A SWELL THAT IS
ENCROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE EAST. ALTHOUGH OF FAIRLY
LOW AMPLITUDE OF LESS THAN 3 FEET...THE SWELL APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE EAST FACING COAST. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THURSDAY
NIGHT BECOMES LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.  SEAS 4
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH WARMER MORE HUMID
AIR AND WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS/TSTMS. INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS...APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS TO 5 OR 6 FEET.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE THIS MORNING WHILE CONSTRUCTION
TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO THE START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 230739
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
339 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH DRIER
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN A PATCH OF MID
CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE GREATER BOSTON AREA...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS BOTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BUT PROBABLY NOT A MAJOR FACTOR. THE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROWING BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THERE IS
ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT FOR SOME MIXING AND SUNRISE WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEFORE THE LOWER LAYERS BECOME TOO SATURATED.

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *
* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS  AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND MOVE/REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST THIS
EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINALLY STRONG ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF POCKETS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I495 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THIS IS CLOSE
TO ALTHOUGH JUST A TAD BROADER THAN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICES AND CAPE ALL POINT TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBCAPES OF 1200 TO 1800 J/KG INDICATED WITH
THE 00Z GFS AND 2500 TO 3000+ J/KG PER THE NAM...WHICH HAS A
TENDENCY TO OVERDO THE CAPE. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWATERS DROP TO
AROUND -3 AND K INDICES REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND TOTAL
TOTALS APPROACH 50. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AROUND
11K FT AT THE START OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS THE CAP ERODING BY MID
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE
EAST. AT THE VERY LEAST THE INSTABILITY ALONE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR.

THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE...HOWEVER...IS MARGINAL AT BEST...25
TO 30 KT AND EVEN WEAKER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WORCESTER AREA.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET WHICH APPROACHES THIS EVENING BUT NOT IDEALLY SITUATED
OVER THE AREA UNTIL THU MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE SE COASTAL WATERS. A MORE GENERAL SYNOPTIC RECOGNITION
OF THIS EVENT SUGGESTS THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION IN AT LEAST WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
PROBABLY IN A WEAKENED STATE IN THE EAST LATER INTO THE EVENING.
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND WESTERN
CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WORKS ACROSS SW NH AND CENTRAL MA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND MORE INTO NE MA LATER INTO THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BUT WEAKENS. IT CURRENTLY SEEMS DOUBTFUL WHETHER DEEP
CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE PAST THE BOS TO PVD CORRIDOR.

PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER...WE PERCEIVE A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT OVER A
SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE NW INTERIOR BOUNDED TO THE EAST BY I495 AND
TO THE SOUTH BY THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THE TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY 4 PM TO 11 PM...STARTING IN THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH METRO BOSTON LATER IN THE EVENING BUT LIKELY IN A WEAKENED
STATE.

WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR INTENSE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THIS CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE DO NOT SEE A STRONG TROPICAL PLUME CONNECTION AND SO
CONTINUE TO BE INCLINED TO HOLD OFF ON PUTTING A LARGE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL STILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...A THREAT THAT MAY
PERSIST TONIGHT AFTER THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT HAS FADED.

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...
FOUR FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO
NORTHERN CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE QUEBEC TROUGH HANGS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA...THE TROUGH
AXIS AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY.  THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH RUNS OVER THE TOP OF THE
ROCKIES RIDGE...THEN MERGES WITH THE QUEBEC LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRAWS THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE BLOCKS OFF THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THIS MERGER. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CREATES A
SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH
OTHER. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION...BUT WITH
THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER JET
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE JET SHIFTS
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHOULD THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS. WE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT. IF THE JET
POSITION AT 00Z IS AS ADVERTISED...WE MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON EVENING POPS. OTHERWISE THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD
TREND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO END ANY REMAINING PCPN AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH
DRY WEATHER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS...A LITTLE WARMER
SATURDAY.

ONE CONCERN WILL BE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
DOWN AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE EASTERN COAST. OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS LATTER
CONCERN COULD DESTABLIZE THE AIRMASS AND PROMOTE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. BUT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 700 MB BELOW 50 PERCENT. WILL KEEP SKY COVER LOW FRIDAY...THEN
INCREASING CIRRUS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE DIGS AS IT APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES AND GENERATES A SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY WITH 35-40 KNOT
WINDS AT 850 AND 900 MB. AS THIS MOVES EAST IT WILL BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5
INCHES BY SUNDAY. THE LIFTING OF THIS AIR OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LAYER WOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. WE WILL MENTION CHANCE
POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE MERGING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SHOWING FROPA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER US. WITH NO CLEAR TREND ON A DAY 7
FORECAST...WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDENCE SOLUTION OF
DIMINISHING POPS TUESDAY.  BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FOR
ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT ANY VISIBILITIES BELOW MVFR. ANY STRATUS OF
PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR
LOW CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI MID TO LATE WED
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM MUGGY AIRMASS...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
THIS SEPARATE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF ANY STORMS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
DAY. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z OR 8 PM...AFT 22Z TO THE N AND W.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON A BRIF PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKING LESS LIKELY. TSTMS
POSSIBLE AFT 21Z. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...
VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THURSDAY
NIGHT BECOMES LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.  SEAS 4
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH WARMER MORE HUMID
AIR AND WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS/TSTMS. INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS...APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS TO 5 OR 6 FEET.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE THIS MORNING WHILE CONSTRUCTION
TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON PRIOR TO START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 230739
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
339 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH DRIER
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
WILL BRING MORE HUMID UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN A PATCH OF MID
CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE GREATER BOSTON AREA...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS BOTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BUT PROBABLY NOT A MAJOR FACTOR. THE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROWING BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THERE IS
ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT FOR SOME MIXING AND SUNRISE WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEFORE THE LOWER LAYERS BECOME TOO SATURATED.

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *
* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS  AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND MOVE/REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST THIS
EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINALLY STRONG ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF POCKETS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I495 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THIS IS CLOSE
TO ALTHOUGH JUST A TAD BROADER THAN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICES AND CAPE ALL POINT TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBCAPES OF 1200 TO 1800 J/KG INDICATED WITH
THE 00Z GFS AND 2500 TO 3000+ J/KG PER THE NAM...WHICH HAS A
TENDENCY TO OVERDO THE CAPE. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWATERS DROP TO
AROUND -3 AND K INDICES REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND TOTAL
TOTALS APPROACH 50. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AROUND
11K FT AT THE START OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS THE CAP ERODING BY MID
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE
EAST. AT THE VERY LEAST THE INSTABILITY ALONE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR.

THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE...HOWEVER...IS MARGINAL AT BEST...25
TO 30 KT AND EVEN WEAKER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WORCESTER AREA.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET WHICH APPROACHES THIS EVENING BUT NOT IDEALLY SITUATED
OVER THE AREA UNTIL THU MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE SE COASTAL WATERS. A MORE GENERAL SYNOPTIC RECOGNITION
OF THIS EVENT SUGGESTS THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION IN AT LEAST WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
PROBABLY IN A WEAKENED STATE IN THE EAST LATER INTO THE EVENING.
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND WESTERN
CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WORKS ACROSS SW NH AND CENTRAL MA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND MORE INTO NE MA LATER INTO THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BUT WEAKENS. IT CURRENTLY SEEMS DOUBTFUL WHETHER DEEP
CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE PAST THE BOS TO PVD CORRIDOR.

PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER...WE PERCEIVE A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT OVER A
SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE NW INTERIOR BOUNDED TO THE EAST BY I495 AND
TO THE SOUTH BY THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THE TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY 4 PM TO 11 PM...STARTING IN THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH METRO BOSTON LATER IN THE EVENING BUT LIKELY IN A WEAKENED
STATE.

WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR INTENSE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THIS CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE DO NOT SEE A STRONG TROPICAL PLUME CONNECTION AND SO
CONTINUE TO BE INCLINED TO HOLD OFF ON PUTTING A LARGE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL STILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...A THREAT THAT MAY
PERSIST TONIGHT AFTER THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT HAS FADED.

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...
FOUR FEATURES IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO
NORTHERN CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE QUEBEC TROUGH HANGS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICA...THE TROUGH
AXIS AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY.  THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH RUNS OVER THE TOP OF THE
ROCKIES RIDGE...THEN MERGES WITH THE QUEBEC LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRAWS THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE BLOCKS OFF THE
EASTWARD EXIT OF THIS MERGER. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CREATES A
SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENCY BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH
OTHER. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION...BUT WITH
THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE WHILE THE UPPER JET
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE JET SHIFTS
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHOULD THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS. WE WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY IN THE NIGHT. IF THE JET
POSITION AT 00Z IS AS ADVERTISED...WE MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE
ON EVENING POPS. OTHERWISE THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD
TREND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO END ANY REMAINING PCPN AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH
DRY WEATHER AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS...A LITTLE WARMER
SATURDAY.

ONE CONCERN WILL BE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
DOWN AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE EASTERN COAST. OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS LATTER
CONCERN COULD DESTABLIZE THE AIRMASS AND PROMOTE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. BUT MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS WITH RH VALUES
BELOW 700 MB BELOW 50 PERCENT. WILL KEEP SKY COVER LOW FRIDAY...THEN
INCREASING CIRRUS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE DIGS AS IT APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES AND GENERATES A SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY WITH 35-40 KNOT
WINDS AT 850 AND 900 MB. AS THIS MOVES EAST IT WILL BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5
INCHES BY SUNDAY. THE LIFTING OF THIS AIR OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LAYER WOULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS. WE WILL MENTION CHANCE
POPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE MERGING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
AT THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SHOWING FROPA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER US. WITH NO CLEAR TREND ON A DAY 7
FORECAST...WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDENCE SOLUTION OF
DIMINISHING POPS TUESDAY.  BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FOR
ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT ANY VISIBILITIES BELOW MVFR. ANY STRATUS OF
PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR
LOW CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI MID TO LATE WED
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM MUGGY AIRMASS...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
THIS SEPARATE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF ANY STORMS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
DAY. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z OR 8 PM...AFT 22Z TO THE N AND W.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON A BRIF PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKING LESS LIKELY. TSTMS
POSSIBLE AFT 21Z. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS. POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...
VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THURSDAY
NIGHT BECOMES LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.  SEAS 4
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS WITH WARMER MORE HUMID
AIR AND WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS/TSTMS. INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS...APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS ON THE EXPOSED WATERS TO 5 OR 6 FEET.  A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE THIS MORNING WHILE CONSTRUCTION
TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON PRIOR TO START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KALY 230728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
328 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR KGFL WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KGFL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO
ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 230728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
328 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WARM SECTOR IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS METAR
DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 65-70F AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION /AS ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM WITH A LINE OF STRONG
CONVECTION UNDERWAY/ AS GOOD INSOLATION...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SBCAPES AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS /THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION/ TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF THE
SLIGHT RISK PER SPC COORDINATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE PRECIP LOADING IN A VERY MOIST COLUMN. HAIL
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS PER
THE BUFR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 13K FEET. WE WILL
RETAIN THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE STRONGLY WORDED HWO. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WHICH REACHES OUR
DACKS REGION AROUND THE LUNCH HOUR...CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 2PM-
4PM...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 5PM-8PM.

IN THE WAKE OF FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT TO
KEEP CHC-SCT POPS SOUTH OF I90. WHILE THIS FROPA WILL USHER IN
MORE STABLE AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE FORECAST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH MID-UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND THE HEAT INDEX AROUND 90F...AROUND 80F FOR THE
TERRAIN. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO A RANGE FROM AROUND 50F
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND UPPER 60S FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MORE STABLE...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WILL MIX OUT TO PARTLY
CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALOFT A H850
TEMPS DIP BACK TO AROUND 10C.  HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE AT OR
JUST BELOW 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED STARTING WITH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.

START TO INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE
POPS LATE SATURDAY AS FA STARTS TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A
SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONVERGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION
OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL PLACE CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR KGFL WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KGFL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO
ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THE
RH VALUES TONIGHT AT BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST MID DAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHIFT TO A WEST THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL RETAIN THIS MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 230659
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
259 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST HOWEVER THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN A PATCH OF MID
CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE GREATER BOSTON AREA...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS BOTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BUT PROBABLY NOT A MAJOR FACTOR. THE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROWING BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THERE IS
ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT FOR SOME MIXING AND SUNRISE WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEFORE THE LOWER LAYERS BECOME TOO SATURATED.

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *
* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS  AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND MOVE/REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST THIS
EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINALLY STRONG ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF POCKETS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I495 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THIS IS CLOSE
TO ALTHOUGH JUST A TAD BROADER THAN THE AREA OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICES AND CAPE ALL POINT TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBCAPES OF 1200 TO 1800 J/KG INDICATED WITH
THE 00Z GFS AND 2500 TO 3000+ J/KG PER THE NAM...WHICH HAS A
TENDENCY TO OVERDO THE CAPE. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWATERS DROP TO
AROUND -3 AND K INDICES REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND TOTAL
TOTALS APPROACH 50. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AROUND
11K FT AT THE START OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS THE CAP ERODING BY MID
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE
EAST. AT THE VERY LEAST THE INSTABILITY ALONE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR.

THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE...HOWEVER...IS MARGINAL AT BEST...25
TO 30 KT AND EVEN WEAKER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WORCESTER AREA.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET WHICH APPROACHES THIS EVENING BUT NOT IDEALLY SITUATED
OVER THE AREA UNTIL THU MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE SE COASTAL WATERS. A MORE GENERAL SYNOPTIC RECOGNITION
OF THIS EVENT SUGGESTS THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION IN AT LEAST WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
PROBABLY IN A WEAKENED STATE IN THE EAST LATER INTO THE EVENING.
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND WESTERN
CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WORKS ACROSS SW NH AND CENTRAL MA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND MORE INTO NE MA LATER INTO THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BUT WEAKENS. IT CURRENTLY SEEMS DOUBTFUL WHETHER DEEP
CONVECTION WILL SURVIVE PAST THE BOS TO PVD CORRIDOR.

PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER...WE PERCEIVE A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT OVER A
SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE NW INTERIOR BOUNDED TO THE EAST BY I495 AND
TO THE SOUTH BY THE MASS PIKE AND I84. THE TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY 4 PM TO 11 PM...STARTING IN THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REACH METRO BOSTON LATER IN THE EVENING BUT LIKELY IN A WEAKENED
STATE.

WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR INTENSE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THIS CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...WE DO NOT SEE A STRONG TROPICAL PLUME CONNECTION AND SO
CONTINUE TO BE INCLINED TO HOLD OFF ON PUTTING A LARGE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL STILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...A THREAT THAT MAY
PERSIST TONIGHT AFTER THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT HAS FADED.

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MUCH COOLER THU ALONG WITH RAIN LINGERING SOUTH COAST
* DRY...LESS HUMID AND SEASONABLE THU NGT THRU SAT
* PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID SUN INTO NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES....

NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH ITS
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITING THE SOUTH COAST. POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FRI. THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVERSPREADING NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THRU SAT. BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE /+2 SD/ LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VLLY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL BASE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON A MODEL BLEND.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND AT 12Z THU.
THUS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A TSTM TO LINGER ACROSS
THIS REGION. THE HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC GUID /GFS AND NAM/ ARE
SLOWER WITH THE FROPA AS THESE MODELS FORM A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE
THAN THE ENSEMBLES. THIS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIER RES MODELS WOULD
PERFORM BETTER THAN THE COURSE ENSEMBLES SIMULATING A SMALL SCALE
FRONTAL WAVE. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THU MORNING ACROSS
RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AND TRENDING TO CHANCE AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATER THU. DEPARTURE OF
RAIN WILL BE CRITICAL TO TEMP FORECAST AS THE WETTER GFS 2 METER
TEMPS NEVER CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S! EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND NAM 2
METER TEMPS ARE ONLY INTO THE L70S. THUS A COOLER DAY ON TAP THU AND
IF THE GFS VERIFIES OUR TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INTERIOR CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH N-NE WINDS YIELDING A COOLER DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH A
850 TEMP ANOMALIES AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO...
ABOUT +10C/+11C. HENCE REFRESHING AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THE CORE OF THE DRY/COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS WILL YIELD A VERY COMFORTABLE AND COOL TEMPS
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS PROVIDES DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO
NEW ENGLAND SO EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FOR
ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT ANY VISIBILITIES BELOW MVFR. ANY STRATUS OF
PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR
LOW CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI MID TO LATE WED
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM MUGGY AIRMASS...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
THIS SEPARATE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF ANY STORMS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
DAY. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z OR 8 PM...AFT 22Z TO THE N AND W.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON A BRIF PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKING LESS LIKELY. TSTMS
POSSIBLE AFT 21Z. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MVFR POSSIBLE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE IN RAIN...POSSIBLY IFR SOUTH
COAST WITH VFR NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THEN VFR ALL
TERMINALS THU NIGHT INTO SAT. LOW RISK OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MODEST N-NE WIND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

FRI/SAT...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING A MODEST SSW SAT AFTN.

SUN...MODEST SSW WIND ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
SHORE. OTHERWISE MAINLY GOOD VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
CONSTRUCTION TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN/GAF/THOMPSON
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN/GAF
EQUIPMENT...THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 230623
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
223 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST HOWEVER THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN A PATCH OF MID
CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE GREATER BOSTON AREA...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS BOTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BUT PROBABLY NOT A MAJOR FACTOR. THE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROWING BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THERE IS
ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT FOR SOME MIXING AND SUNRISE WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BEFORE THE LOWER LAYERS BECOME TOO SATURATED.

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THE EVENING HOURS *
* SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND
  ADJACENT SE MASSACHUSETTS DURING MUCH OF THURSDAY

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS  AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND MOVE/REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST THIS
EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MARGINALLY STRONG ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF POCKETS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INDICES AND CAPE ALL POINT TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBCAPES OF 1200 TO 1800 J/KG INDICATED WITH
THE 00Z GFS AND 2500 TO 3000+ J/KG PER THE NAM...WHICH HAS A
TENDENCY TO OVERDO THE CAPE. NEVERTHELESS...SHOWATERS DROP TO
AROUND -3 AND K INDICES REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
ANTICIPATE FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AROUND 11K FT AT THE
START OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS THE CAP ERODING BY MID AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST AND LATE AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING IN THE EAST. AT THE
VERY LEAST THE INSTABILITY ALONE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE...HOWEVER...IS MARGINAL AT BEST...25
TO 30 KT AND STRONGEST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF WORCESTER.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET APPROACHES THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH NOT IDEALLY SITUATED
OVER THE AREA UNTIL THU MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE SE COASTAL WATERS. A MORE GENERAL SYNOPTIC RECOGNITION
OF THIS EVENT SUGGESTS THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION IN AT LEAST WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
PROBABLY IN A WEAKENED STATE IN THE EAST LATER INTO THE EVENING.
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND WESTERN
CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WORKS ACROSS SW NH AND CENTRAL MA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND MORE INTO NE MA LATER INTO THE
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BUT WEAKENS.

PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER...WE PERCEIVE A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT ALONG AND TO
THE RIGHT OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM SALISBURY MA TO BVY TO BED TO
IJD TO HFD TO BRISTOL CT. THE TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY 4
PM TO 11 PM...EARLIER IN THE WEST AND LATER IN THE EAST.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH BOSTON LATER IN THE EVENING BUT LIKELY IN
A WEAKENED STATE. WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES IN A PLUME AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR INTENSE RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS CONCERN IS HEIGHTENED WITH THE
SLOWING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WE DO NOT SEE A STRONG TROPICAL PLUME
CONNECTION AND SO THINK IT MAY NOT BE APPROPRIATE TO PUT A LARGE
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL STILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...A THREAT THAT MAY
PERSIST TONIGHT AFTER THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT HAS FADED.

THURSDAY...

THE FRONT DEACCELERATES AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
THEN A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CAPE
COD...THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST MA.

WILL BE MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACT TO CAP THE
TEMPERATURE. FOR MOST LOCATION...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MUCH COOLER THU ALONG WITH RAIN LINGERING SOUTH COAST
* DRY...LESS HUMID AND SEASONABLE THU NGT THRU SAT
* PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID SUN INTO NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES....

NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH ITS
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITING THE SOUTH COAST. POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FRI. THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVERSPREADING NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THRU SAT. BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE /+2 SD/ LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VLLY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL BASE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON A MODEL BLEND.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND AT 12Z THU.
THUS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A TSTM TO LINGER ACROSS
THIS REGION. THE HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC GUID /GFS AND NAM/ ARE
SLOWER WITH THE FROPA AS THESE MODELS FORM A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE
THAN THE ENSEMBLES. THIS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIER RES MODELS WOULD
PERFORM BETTER THAN THE COURSE ENSEMBLES SIMULATING A SMALL SCALE
FRONTAL WAVE. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THU MORNING ACROSS
RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AND TRENDING TO CHANCE AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATER THU. DEPARTURE OF
RAIN WILL BE CRITICAL TO TEMP FORECAST AS THE WETTER GFS 2 METER
TEMPS NEVER CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S! EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND NAM 2
METER TEMPS ARE ONLY INTO THE L70S. THUS A COOLER DAY ON TAP THU AND
IF THE GFS VERIFIES OUR TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INTERIOR CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH N-NE WINDS YIELDING A COOLER DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH A
850 TEMP ANOMALIES AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO...
ABOUT +10C/+11C. HENCE REFRESHING AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THE CORE OF THE DRY/COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS WILL YIELD A VERY COMFORTABLE AND COOL TEMPS
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS PROVIDES DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO
NEW ENGLAND SO EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FOR
ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT ANY VISIBILITIES BELOW MVFR. ANY STRATUS OF
PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR
LOW CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI MID TO LATE WED
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM MUGGY AIRMASS...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
THIS SEPARATE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF ANY STORMS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
DAY. TSTMS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z OR 8 PM...AFT 22Z TO THE N AND W.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON A BRIF PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKING LESS LIKELY. TSTMS
POSSIBLE AFT 21Z. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MVFR POSSIBLE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE IN RAIN...POSSIBLY IFR SOUTH
COAST WITH VFR NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THEN VFR ALL
TERMINALS THU NIGHT INTO SAT. LOW RISK OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MODEST N-NE WIND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

FRI/SAT...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING A MODEST SSW SAT AFTN.

SUN...MODEST SSW WIND ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
SHORE. OTHERWISE MAINLY GOOD VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
CONSTRUCTION TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN/GAF/THOMPSON
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN/GAF
EQUIPMENT...THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KALY 230522
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70 DEGREES. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THOSE AREAS PRONE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
FOG WITH HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. WITH THE LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE
RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER THE
ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS EARLY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON`S BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR KGFL WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KGFL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO
ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE
OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN
UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 230522
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70 DEGREES. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THOSE AREAS PRONE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
FOG WITH HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. WITH THE LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE
RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER THE
ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS EARLY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON`S BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR KGFL WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KGFL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO
ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE
OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN
UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 230522
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70 DEGREES. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THOSE AREAS PRONE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
FOG WITH HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. WITH THE LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE
RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER THE
ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS EARLY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON`S BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR KGFL WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KGFL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO
ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE
OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN
UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 230522
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70 DEGREES. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THOSE AREAS PRONE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
FOG WITH HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. WITH THE LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE
RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER THE
ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS EARLY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON`S BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT CONTINUES. CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR KGFL WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KGFL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT.
HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO
ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OFF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE
OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN
UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 230231
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1031 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MUGGY NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70 DEGREES. SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THOSE AREAS PRONE TO THE DEVELOPMENT FOG WITH
HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. WITH THE LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE
RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER THE
ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS EARLY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON`S BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT UNDERWAY. CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE
WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AT KPSF...KGFL AND KPOU WITH MVFR AT KALB.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS
THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO
ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A SHIFT TO THE WEST WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE
OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN
UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 230231
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1031 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MUGGY NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70 DEGREES. SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UNTIL LATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THOSE AREAS PRONE TO THE DEVELOPMENT FOG WITH
HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. WITH THE LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE
RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER THE
ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS EARLY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON`S BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT UNDERWAY. CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE
WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AT KPSF...KGFL AND KPOU WITH MVFR AT KALB.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS
THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO
ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A SHIFT TO THE WEST WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE
OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN
UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 230217
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1017 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST HOWEVER THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH VERY LITTLE IN WAY OF CHANGES
NEEDED. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ELIMINATE A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE WEST...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS NEAR ZERO OVERNIGHT
NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES JUST A
BIT TO FIT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LOWERED SKY COVER SOME
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT
TO PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG AND MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO WITNESS PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATER TONIGHT.


7 PM UPDATE...

AS OF 7 PM...DAYTIME CLOUDINESS HAD DIMINISHED EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. AT 6 PM...A PATCH OF HAZE
MOVED ACROSS NANTUCKET REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THIS TO BE PART OF A LARGER BAND OF HAZE
TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...PRESUMABLY FROM FIRES IN THE WESTERN
STATES. THE AREA WAS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION AND AS OF 7 PM NANTUCKET WAS BACK TO 10 MILE VISIBILITY.
SEA BREEZES HAVE COME TO AN END ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF
MA...WITH WINDS NOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UPWARD IN THE CT RIVER AND MERRIMACK VALLEYS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING THE MOISTURE LEVELS ALLOWING
FOR A VERY MUGGY NIGHT...AS TEMPS DROP ONLY TO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PATCHY VALLEY
FOG TO DEVELOP LIMITING VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
  INTO THE EVENING HOURS *

THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE INTERESTING BEGINNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION.

AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MIXING
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO GUST BETWEEN 20-30
MPH. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM AT OR ABOVE
90...ESPECIALLY SINCE SEVERAL SITES REACHED 90F TODAY.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A CAP ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT...BELIEVE THE CAP WILL
BREAK. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACTING TIMING BUT FEEL IT
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONCE THE FRONT
APPROACHES STORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE COVERAGE BEING MORE
SCATTERED TO START WITH PERHAPS TURNING INTO A BROKEN LINE. THE
REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-
2500 J/KG WITH SHEAR VALUES VERY MEAGER...15 KTS FROM 0-6KM. THE
ONLY DOWNFALL FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER CLOSER TO 00Z AND INTO 06Z THE BETTER MOISTURE
APPROACHES THE REGION AND WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND BETTER JET
DYNAMICS ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE BEST AREA TO SEE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF I-95.

THE BIGGEST THREATS FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HELD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS PWAT
ANOMALIES ARE ONLY 1 STANDARD DEVIATION AWAY. THEREFORE FEEL THAT
FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCALIZED WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE NW ZONES...THERE IS MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES CLOSER TO 30 KTS
AND WITH SOME TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPHS COLD SEE UPDRAFTS SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCE WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL STILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER BELIEVE THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AND TURN MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AFTER 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MUCH COOLER THU ALONG WITH RAIN LINGERING SOUTH COAST
* DRY...LESS HUMID AND SEASONABLE THU NGT THRU SAT
* PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID SUN INTO NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES....

NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH ITS
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITING THE SOUTH COAST. POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FRI. THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVERSPREADING NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THRU SAT. BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE /+2 SD/ LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VLLY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL BASE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON A MODEL BLEND.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND AT 12Z THU.
THUS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A TSTM TO LINGER ACROSS
THIS REGION. THE HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC GUID /GFS AND NAM/ ARE
SLOWER WITH THE FROPA AS THESE MODELS FORM A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE
THAN THE ENSEMBLES. THIS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIER RES MODELS WOULD
PERFORM BETTER THAN THE COURSE ENSEMBLES SIMULATING A SMALL SCALE
FRONTAL WAVE. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THU MORNING ACROSS
RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AND TRENDING TO CHANCE AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATER THU. DEPARTURE OF
RAIN WILL BE CRITICAL TO TEMP FORECAST AS THE WETTER GFS 2 METER
TEMPS NEVER CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S! EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND NAM 2
METER TEMPS ARE ONLY INTO THE L70S. THUS A COOLER DAY ON TAP THU AND
IF THE GFS VERIFIES OUR TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INTERIOR CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH N-NE WINDS YIELDING A COOLER DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH A
850 TEMP ANOMALIES AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO...
ABOUT +10C/+11C. HENCE REFRESHING AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THE CORE OF THE DRY/COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS WILL YIELD A VERY COMFORTABLE AND COOL TEMPS
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS PROVIDES DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO
NEW ENGLAND SO EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT INTO WED...CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AS OF 02Z. ANTICIPATE
PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR DUE TO THE INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND FOG MAY AGAIN APPEAR OVER THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT TO KEEP VSBYS
FROM DROPPING BELOW MVFR...BUT POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST PATCHY IFR
CIGS FROM STRATUS. CONDITIONS CLEARING TO VFR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR
LOW CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI MID TO LATE WED
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM MUGGY AIRMASS... SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
THIS SEPARATE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF ANY STORMS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MVFR POSSIBLE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE IN RAIN...POSSIBLY IFR SOUTH
COAST WITH VFR NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THEN VFR ALL
TERMINALS THU NIGHT INTO SAT. LOW RISK OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MODEST N-NE WIND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

FRI/SAT...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING A MODEST SSW SAT AFTN.

SUN...MODEST SSW WIND ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
SHORE. OTHERWISE MAINLY GOOD VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
CONSTRUCTION TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/GAF/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN/GAF/THOMPSON
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN/GAF
EQUIPMENT...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230217
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1017 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST HOWEVER THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH VERY LITTLE IN WAY OF CHANGES
NEEDED. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ELIMINATE A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE WEST...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS NEAR ZERO OVERNIGHT
NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES JUST A
BIT TO FIT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LOWERED SKY COVER SOME
OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT
TO PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG AND MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO WITNESS PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATER TONIGHT.


7 PM UPDATE...

AS OF 7 PM...DAYTIME CLOUDINESS HAD DIMINISHED EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. AT 6 PM...A PATCH OF HAZE
MOVED ACROSS NANTUCKET REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THIS TO BE PART OF A LARGER BAND OF HAZE
TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...PRESUMABLY FROM FIRES IN THE WESTERN
STATES. THE AREA WAS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION AND AS OF 7 PM NANTUCKET WAS BACK TO 10 MILE VISIBILITY.
SEA BREEZES HAVE COME TO AN END ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF
MA...WITH WINDS NOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UPWARD IN THE CT RIVER AND MERRIMACK VALLEYS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING THE MOISTURE LEVELS ALLOWING
FOR A VERY MUGGY NIGHT...AS TEMPS DROP ONLY TO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PATCHY VALLEY
FOG TO DEVELOP LIMITING VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
  INTO THE EVENING HOURS *

THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE INTERESTING BEGINNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION.

AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MIXING
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO GUST BETWEEN 20-30
MPH. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM AT OR ABOVE
90...ESPECIALLY SINCE SEVERAL SITES REACHED 90F TODAY.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A CAP ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT...BELIEVE THE CAP WILL
BREAK. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACTING TIMING BUT FEEL IT
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONCE THE FRONT
APPROACHES STORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE COVERAGE BEING MORE
SCATTERED TO START WITH PERHAPS TURNING INTO A BROKEN LINE. THE
REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-
2500 J/KG WITH SHEAR VALUES VERY MEAGER...15 KTS FROM 0-6KM. THE
ONLY DOWNFALL FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER CLOSER TO 00Z AND INTO 06Z THE BETTER MOISTURE
APPROACHES THE REGION AND WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND BETTER JET
DYNAMICS ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE BEST AREA TO SEE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF I-95.

THE BIGGEST THREATS FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HELD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS PWAT
ANOMALIES ARE ONLY 1 STANDARD DEVIATION AWAY. THEREFORE FEEL THAT
FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCALIZED WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE NW ZONES...THERE IS MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES CLOSER TO 30 KTS
AND WITH SOME TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPHS COLD SEE UPDRAFTS SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCE WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL STILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER BELIEVE THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AND TURN MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AFTER 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MUCH COOLER THU ALONG WITH RAIN LINGERING SOUTH COAST
* DRY...LESS HUMID AND SEASONABLE THU NGT THRU SAT
* PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID SUN INTO NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES....

NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH ITS
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITING THE SOUTH COAST. POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FRI. THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVERSPREADING NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THRU SAT. BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE /+2 SD/ LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VLLY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL BASE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON A MODEL BLEND.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND AT 12Z THU.
THUS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A TSTM TO LINGER ACROSS
THIS REGION. THE HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC GUID /GFS AND NAM/ ARE
SLOWER WITH THE FROPA AS THESE MODELS FORM A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE
THAN THE ENSEMBLES. THIS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIER RES MODELS WOULD
PERFORM BETTER THAN THE COURSE ENSEMBLES SIMULATING A SMALL SCALE
FRONTAL WAVE. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THU MORNING ACROSS
RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AND TRENDING TO CHANCE AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATER THU. DEPARTURE OF
RAIN WILL BE CRITICAL TO TEMP FORECAST AS THE WETTER GFS 2 METER
TEMPS NEVER CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S! EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND NAM 2
METER TEMPS ARE ONLY INTO THE L70S. THUS A COOLER DAY ON TAP THU AND
IF THE GFS VERIFIES OUR TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INTERIOR CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH N-NE WINDS YIELDING A COOLER DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH A
850 TEMP ANOMALIES AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO...
ABOUT +10C/+11C. HENCE REFRESHING AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THE CORE OF THE DRY/COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS WILL YIELD A VERY COMFORTABLE AND COOL TEMPS
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS PROVIDES DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO
NEW ENGLAND SO EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT INTO WED...CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AS OF 02Z. ANTICIPATE
PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR DUE TO THE INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND FOG MAY AGAIN APPEAR OVER THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT TO KEEP VSBYS
FROM DROPPING BELOW MVFR...BUT POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST PATCHY IFR
CIGS FROM STRATUS. CONDITIONS CLEARING TO VFR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR
LOW CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI MID TO LATE WED
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM MUGGY AIRMASS... SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
THIS SEPARATE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF ANY STORMS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MVFR POSSIBLE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE IN RAIN...POSSIBLY IFR SOUTH
COAST WITH VFR NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THEN VFR ALL
TERMINALS THU NIGHT INTO SAT. LOW RISK OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MODEST N-NE WIND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

FRI/SAT...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING A MODEST SSW SAT AFTN.

SUN...MODEST SSW WIND ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
SHORE. OTHERWISE MAINLY GOOD VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
CONSTRUCTION TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO START OF ANY CONVECTION IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/GAF/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN/GAF/THOMPSON
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN/GAF
EQUIPMENT...THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KALY 230001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
801 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MUGGY NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70 DEGREES. CUMULUS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE DECREASED CLOUD
COVER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALSO HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS PRONE TO THE DEVELOPMENT FOG AS
SURFACE WINDS LIGHTEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. WITH THE LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE
RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER THE
ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS EARLY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON`S BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT UNDERWAY. CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE
WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AT KPSF...KGFL AND KPOU WITH MVFR AT KALB.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS
THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO
ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A SHIFT TO THE WEST WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE
OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN
UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 230001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
801 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MUGGY NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70 DEGREES. CUMULUS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE DECREASED CLOUD
COVER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALSO HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS PRONE TO THE DEVELOPMENT FOG AS
SURFACE WINDS LIGHTEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. WITH THE LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE
RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER THE
ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS EARLY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON`S BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUGGY NIGHT UNDERWAY. CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL LATE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND SURFACE
WINDS LIGHTENING UP OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AT KPSF...KGFL AND KPOU WITH MVFR AT KALB.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. USED PROB30 GROUPS TO ADDRESS
THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION...FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO
ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RATHER HIGH SO SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOUTH WINDS WEAKENING TONIGHT. START OF WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY SHIFTING MORE TO THE WEST AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A SHIFT TO THE WEST WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE BOUNDARY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO ANY STORM WILL CAPABLE
OF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
HAVE THIS MENTIONED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER WILL TURN
UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 222310
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
710 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST HOWEVER THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...

AS OF 7 PM...DAYTIME CLOUDINESS HAD DIMINISHED EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. AT 6 PM...A PATCH OF HAZE
MOVED ACROSS NANTUCKET REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THIS TO BE PART OF A LARGER BAND OF HAZE
TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...PRESUMABLY FROM FIRES IN THE WESTERN
STATES. THE AREA WAS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION AND AS OF 7 PM NANTUCKET WAS BACK TO 10 MILE VISIBILITY.
SEA BREEZES HAVE COME TO AN END ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF
MA...WITH WINDS NOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UPWARD IN THE CT RIVER AND MERRIMACK VALLEYS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING THE MOISTURE LEVELS ALLOWING
FOR A VERY MUGGY NIGHT...AS TEMPS DROP ONLY TO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PATCHY VALLEY
FOG TO DEVELOP LIMITING VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
  INTO THE EVENING HOURS *

THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE INTERESTING BEGINNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION.

AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MIXING
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO GUST BETWEEN 20-30
MPH. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM AT OR ABOVE
90...ESPECIALLY SINCE SEVERAL SITES REACHED 90F TODAY.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A CAP ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT...BELIEVE THE CAP WILL
BREAK. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACTING TIMING BUT FEEL IT
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONCE THE FRONT
APPROACHES STORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE COVERAGE BEING MORE
SCATTERED TO START WITH PERHAPS TURNING INTO A BROKEN LINE. THE
REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-
2500 J/KG WITH SHEAR VALUES VERY MEAGER...15 KTS FROM 0-6KM. THE
ONLY DOWNFALL FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER CLOSER TO 00Z AND INTO 06Z THE BETTER MOISTURE
APPROACHES THE REGION AND WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND BETTER JET
DYNAMICS ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE BEST AREA TO SEE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF I-95.

THE BIGGEST THREATS FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HELD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS PWAT
ANOMALIES ARE ONLY 1 STANDARD DEVIATION AWAY. THEREFORE FEEL THAT
FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCALIZED WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE NW ZONES...THERE IS MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES CLOSER TO 30 KTS
AND WITH SOME TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPHS COLD SEE UPDRAFTS SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCE WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL STILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER BELIEVE THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AND TURN MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AFTER 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MUCH COOLER THU ALONG WITH RAIN LINGERING SOUTH COAST
* DRY...LESS HUMID AND SEASONABLE THU NGT THRU SAT
* PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID SUN INTO NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES....

NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH ITS
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITING THE SOUTH COAST. POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FRI. THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVERSPREADING NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THRU SAT. BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE /+2 SD/ LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VLLY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL BASE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON A MODEL BLEND.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND AT 12Z THU.
THUS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A TSTM TO LINGER ACROSS
THIS REGION. THE HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC GUID /GFS AND NAM/ ARE
SLOWER WITH THE FROPA AS THESE MODELS FORM A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE
THAN THE ENSEMBLES. THIS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIER RES MODELS WOULD
PERFORM BETTER THAN THE COURSE ENSEMBLES SIMULATING A SMALL SCALE
FRONTAL WAVE. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THU MORNING ACROSS
RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AND TRENDING TO CHANCE AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATER THU. DEPARTURE OF
RAIN WILL BE CRITICAL TO TEMP FORECAST AS THE WETTER GFS 2 METER
TEMPS NEVER CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S! EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND NAM 2
METER TEMPS ARE ONLY INTO THE L70S. THUS A COOLER DAY ON TAP THU AND
IF THE GFS VERIFIES OUR TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INTERIOR CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH N-NE WINDS YIELDING A COOLER DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH A
850 TEMP ANOMALIES AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO...
ABOUT +10C/+11C. HENCE REFRESHING AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THE CORE OF THE DRY/COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS WILL YIELD A VERY COMFORTABLE AND COOL TEMPS
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS PROVIDES DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO
NEW ENGLAND SO EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

TONIGHT INTO WED...VFR TO START. ANTICIPATE PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS
ACROSS INTERIOR DUE TO INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND
FOG AGAIN OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR.
CONDITIONS CLEARING TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR
LOW CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI MID TO LATE WED
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM MUGGY AIRMASS... SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
THIS SEPARATE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF ANY STORMS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MVFR POSSIBLE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE IN RAIN...POSSIBLY IFR SOUTH
COAST WITH VFR NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THEN VFR ALL
TERMINALS THU NIGHT INTO SAT. LOW RISK OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MODEST N-NE WIND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

FRI/SAT...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING A MODEST SSW SAT AFTN.

SUN...MODEST SSW WIND ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
SHORE. OTHERWISE MAINLY GOOD VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE TOMORROW MORNING WHILE
CONSTRUCTION TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN ANTICIPATION OF UPCOMING CONVECTION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/FIELD
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN/FIELD
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN/FIELD
EQUIPMENT...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222310
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
710 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST HOWEVER THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...

AS OF 7 PM...DAYTIME CLOUDINESS HAD DIMINISHED EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. AT 6 PM...A PATCH OF HAZE
MOVED ACROSS NANTUCKET REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THIS TO BE PART OF A LARGER BAND OF HAZE
TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...PRESUMABLY FROM FIRES IN THE WESTERN
STATES. THE AREA WAS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION AND AS OF 7 PM NANTUCKET WAS BACK TO 10 MILE VISIBILITY.
SEA BREEZES HAVE COME TO AN END ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF
MA...WITH WINDS NOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT MOST LOCATIONS.
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UPWARD IN THE CT RIVER AND MERRIMACK VALLEYS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING THE MOISTURE LEVELS ALLOWING
FOR A VERY MUGGY NIGHT...AS TEMPS DROP ONLY TO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PATCHY VALLEY
FOG TO DEVELOP LIMITING VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
  INTO THE EVENING HOURS *

THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE INTERESTING BEGINNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION.

AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MIXING
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO GUST BETWEEN 20-30
MPH. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM AT OR ABOVE
90...ESPECIALLY SINCE SEVERAL SITES REACHED 90F TODAY.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A CAP ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT...BELIEVE THE CAP WILL
BREAK. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACTING TIMING BUT FEEL IT
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONCE THE FRONT
APPROACHES STORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE COVERAGE BEING MORE
SCATTERED TO START WITH PERHAPS TURNING INTO A BROKEN LINE. THE
REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-
2500 J/KG WITH SHEAR VALUES VERY MEAGER...15 KTS FROM 0-6KM. THE
ONLY DOWNFALL FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER CLOSER TO 00Z AND INTO 06Z THE BETTER MOISTURE
APPROACHES THE REGION AND WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND BETTER JET
DYNAMICS ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE BEST AREA TO SEE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF I-95.

THE BIGGEST THREATS FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HELD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS PWAT
ANOMALIES ARE ONLY 1 STANDARD DEVIATION AWAY. THEREFORE FEEL THAT
FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCALIZED WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE NW ZONES...THERE IS MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES CLOSER TO 30 KTS
AND WITH SOME TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPHS COLD SEE UPDRAFTS SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCE WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL STILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER BELIEVE THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AND TURN MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AFTER 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MUCH COOLER THU ALONG WITH RAIN LINGERING SOUTH COAST
* DRY...LESS HUMID AND SEASONABLE THU NGT THRU SAT
* PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID SUN INTO NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES....

NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH ITS
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITING THE SOUTH COAST. POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FRI. THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVERSPREADING NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THRU SAT. BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE /+2 SD/ LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VLLY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL BASE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON A MODEL BLEND.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND AT 12Z THU.
THUS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A TSTM TO LINGER ACROSS
THIS REGION. THE HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC GUID /GFS AND NAM/ ARE
SLOWER WITH THE FROPA AS THESE MODELS FORM A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE
THAN THE ENSEMBLES. THIS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIER RES MODELS WOULD
PERFORM BETTER THAN THE COURSE ENSEMBLES SIMULATING A SMALL SCALE
FRONTAL WAVE. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THU MORNING ACROSS
RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AND TRENDING TO CHANCE AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATER THU. DEPARTURE OF
RAIN WILL BE CRITICAL TO TEMP FORECAST AS THE WETTER GFS 2 METER
TEMPS NEVER CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S! EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND NAM 2
METER TEMPS ARE ONLY INTO THE L70S. THUS A COOLER DAY ON TAP THU AND
IF THE GFS VERIFIES OUR TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INTERIOR CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH N-NE WINDS YIELDING A COOLER DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH A
850 TEMP ANOMALIES AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO...
ABOUT +10C/+11C. HENCE REFRESHING AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THE CORE OF THE DRY/COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS WILL YIELD A VERY COMFORTABLE AND COOL TEMPS
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS PROVIDES DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO
NEW ENGLAND SO EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

TONIGHT INTO WED...VFR TO START. ANTICIPATE PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS
ACROSS INTERIOR DUE TO INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND
FOG AGAIN OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR.
CONDITIONS CLEARING TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR
LOW CLOUDINESS TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI MID TO LATE WED
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM MUGGY AIRMASS... SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
THIS SEPARATE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WELL AHEAD OF ANY STORMS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MVFR POSSIBLE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE IN RAIN...POSSIBLY IFR SOUTH
COAST WITH VFR NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THEN VFR ALL
TERMINALS THU NIGHT INTO SAT. LOW RISK OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MODEST N-NE WIND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

FRI/SAT...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING A MODEST SSW SAT AFTN.

SUN...MODEST SSW WIND ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
SHORE. OTHERWISE MAINLY GOOD VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE TOMORROW MORNING WHILE
CONSTRUCTION TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN ANTICIPATION OF UPCOMING CONVECTION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/FIELD
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN/FIELD
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN/FIELD
EQUIPMENT...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 222129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
529 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 450 PM...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SINCE NO
SHOWER AT ANY TIME TODAY REACH LEVELS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MAINLY CLEAT TO PARTLY CLOUDY...VERY WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE 60 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
EARLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z. WITH VERY
MUGGY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE SOME RESTRICTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG OR HAZE TONIGHT. IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CLOUD IS
FORECAST AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST. AFTER
DAYBREAK...HEATING FROM SUN AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED ALL SITES DURING
THE DAY DUE TO HAZE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND 1+ INCH HAIL TO THE
TAF SITES.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD /18Z WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 222129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
529 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 450 PM...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SINCE NO
SHOWER AT ANY TIME TODAY REACH LEVELS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MAINLY CLEAT TO PARTLY CLOUDY...VERY WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE 60 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
EARLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z. WITH VERY
MUGGY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE SOME RESTRICTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG OR HAZE TONIGHT. IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CLOUD IS
FORECAST AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST. AFTER
DAYBREAK...HEATING FROM SUN AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED ALL SITES DURING
THE DAY DUE TO HAZE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND 1+ INCH HAIL TO THE
TAF SITES.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD /18Z WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 222129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
529 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 450 PM...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SINCE NO
SHOWER AT ANY TIME TODAY REACH LEVELS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MAINLY CLEAT TO PARTLY CLOUDY...VERY WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE 60 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
EARLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z. WITH VERY
MUGGY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE SOME RESTRICTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG OR HAZE TONIGHT. IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CLOUD IS
FORECAST AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST. AFTER
DAYBREAK...HEATING FROM SUN AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED ALL SITES DURING
THE DAY DUE TO HAZE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND 1+ INCH HAIL TO THE
TAF SITES.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD /18Z WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 222129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
529 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 450 PM...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SINCE NO
SHOWER AT ANY TIME TODAY REACH LEVELS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MAINLY CLEAT TO PARTLY CLOUDY...VERY WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE 60 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
EARLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL HAVE
CHANGED WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
IN THE EAST BY THE TIME WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THE POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE EASTWARD BOUNDARY WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERRIDES THE RIDGE AND
ENTERS THE TROUGH DEEPENING IT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
DRAWING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.

OVERALL HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
FOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF FEATURES AND TO OFFER FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASINGLY
HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z. WITH VERY
MUGGY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE SOME RESTRICTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG OR HAZE TONIGHT. IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CLOUD IS
FORECAST AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST. AFTER
DAYBREAK...HEATING FROM SUN AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED ALL SITES DURING
THE DAY DUE TO HAZE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND 1+ INCH HAIL TO THE
TAF SITES.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD /18Z WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THU-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 222048
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
448 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 450 PM...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SINCE NO
SHOWER AT ANY TIME TODAY REACH LEVELS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MAINLY CLEAT TO PARTLY CLOUDY...VERY WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE 60 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
EARLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

COMING SOON...

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z. WITH VERY
MUGGY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE SOME RESTRICTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG OR HAZE TONIGHT. IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CLOUD IS
FORECAST AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST. AFTER
DAYBREAK...HEATING FROM SUN AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED ALL SITES DURING
THE DAY DUE TO HAZE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND 1+ INCH HAIL TO THE
TAF SITES.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD /18Z WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM











000
FXUS61 KALY 222048
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
448 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 450 PM...LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SINCE NO
SHOWER AT ANY TIME TODAY REACH LEVELS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MAINLY CLEAT TO PARTLY CLOUDY...VERY WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE 60 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IF
THE SBCAPE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 80 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE MOST AREAS...BUT IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
EARLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING THAT MUCH.

THE COLD FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE BY MOST OF
THE MODELS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AND DO NOT MENTION TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SINCE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLOWLY DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY POPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ELSEWHERE. THE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND BECOME DRY IN ALL AREAS BY
THURSDAY AFTN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 80.

MAINLY CLEAR...COOL AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

COMING SOON...

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z. WITH VERY
MUGGY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE SOME RESTRICTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG OR HAZE TONIGHT. IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CLOUD IS
FORECAST AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST. AFTER
DAYBREAK...HEATING FROM SUN AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED ALL SITES DURING
THE DAY DUE TO HAZE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND 1+ INCH HAIL TO THE
TAF SITES.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD /18Z WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10
MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KBOX 222001
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST HOWEVER THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

400PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOUR. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR
RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS HAS BEEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AND THUS THE MUGGINESS FACTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND VT BUT
QUICKLY DIE OUT. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY MAKE THERE WAY INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT THEY WILL STRUGGLE DUE TO MID-LEVEL CAP
AND LACK OF ANY LIFT.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING THE MOISTURE LEVELS ALLOWING FOR A VERY
MUGGY NIGHT...AS TEMPS DROP ONLY TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BECAUSE OF
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP
LIMITING VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
  INTO THE EVENING HOURS *

THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE INTERESTING BEGINNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION.

AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MIXING
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO GUST BETWEEN 20-30
MPH. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM AT OR ABOVE
90...ESPECIALLY SINCE SEVERAL SITES REACHED 90F TODAY.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A CAP ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT...BELIEVE THE CAP WILL
BREAK. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACTING TIMING BUT FEEL IT
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONCE THE FRONT
APPROACHES STORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE COVERAGE BEING MORE
SCATTERED TO START WITH PERHAPS TURNING INTO A BROKEN LINE. THE
REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-
2500 J/KG WITH SHEAR VALUES VERY MEAGER...15 KTS FROM 0-6KM. THE
ONLY DOWNFALL FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER CLOSER TO 00Z AND INTO 06Z THE BETTER MOISTURE
APPROACHES THE REGION AND WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND BETTER JET
DYNAMICS ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE BEST AREA TO SEE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF I-95.

THE BIGGEST THREATS FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HELD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS PWAT
ANOMALIES ARE ONLY 1 STANDARD DEVIATION AWAY. THEREFORE FEEL THAT
FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCALIZED WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE NW ZONES...THERE IS MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES CLOSER TO 30 KTS
AND WITH SOME TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPHS COLD SEE UPDRAFTS SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCE WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL STILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER BELIEVE THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AND TURN MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AFTER 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MUCH COOLER THU ALONG WITH RAIN LINGERING SOUTH COAST
* DRY...LESS HUMID AND SEASONABLE THU NGT THRU SAT
* PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID SUN INTO NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES....

NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH ITS
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITING THE SOUTH COAST. POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FRI. THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVERSPREADING NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THRU SAT. BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE /+2 SD/ LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VLLY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL BASE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON A MODEL BLEND.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND AT 12Z THU.
THUS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A TSTM TO LINGER ACROSS
THIS REGION. THE HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC GUID /GFS AND NAM/ ARE
SLOWER WITH THE FROPA AS THESE MODELS FORM A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE
THAN THE ENSEMBLES. THIS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIER RES MODELS WOULD
PERFORM BETTER THAN THE COURSE ENSEMBLES SIMULATING A SMALL SCALE
FRONTAL WAVE. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THU MORNING ACROSS
RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AND TRENDING TO CHANCE AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATER THU. DEPARTURE OF
RAIN WILL BE CRITICAL TO TEMP FORECAST AS THE WETTER GFS 2 METER
TEMPS NEVER CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S! EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND NAM 2
METER TEMPS ARE ONLY INTO THE L70S. THUS A COOLER DAY ON TAP THU AND
IF THE GFS VERIFIES OUR TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INTERIOR CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH N-NE WINDS YIELDING A COOLER DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH A
850 TEMP ANOMALIES AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO...
ABOUT +10C/+11C. HENCE REFRESHING AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THE CORE OF THE DRY/COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS WILL YIELD A VERY COMFORTABLE AND COOL TEMPS
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS PROVIDES DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO
NEW ENGLAND SO EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK/SHALLOW SEA BREEZE ON
EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT INTO WED...VFR TO START. ANTICIPATE PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS
ACROSS INTERIOR DUE TO INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND
FOG AGAIN OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR.
CONDITIONS CLEARING TO VFR BY DAY BREAK.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCE IN PATCHY FOG AHEAD
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE
TIMING. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MVFR POSSIBLE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE IN RAIN...POSSIBLY IFR SOUTH
COAST WITH VFR NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THEN VFR ALL
TERMINALS THU NIGHT INTO SAT. LOW RISK OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MODEST N-NE WIND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

FRI/SAT...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING A MODEST SSW SAT AFTN.

SUN...MODEST SSW WIND ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
SHORE. OTHERWISE MAINLY GOOD VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE TOMORROW MORNING WHILE
CONSTRUCTION TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN ANTICIPATING OF UPCOMING CONVECTION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
EQUIPMENT...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222001
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST HOWEVER THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

400PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOUR. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR
RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS HAS BEEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AND THUS THE MUGGINESS FACTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND VT BUT
QUICKLY DIE OUT. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY MAKE THERE WAY INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT THEY WILL STRUGGLE DUE TO MID-LEVEL CAP
AND LACK OF ANY LIFT.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING THE MOISTURE LEVELS ALLOWING FOR A VERY
MUGGY NIGHT...AS TEMPS DROP ONLY TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BECAUSE OF
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP
LIMITING VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
  INTO THE EVENING HOURS *

THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE INTERESTING BEGINNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION.

AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MIXING
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO GUST BETWEEN 20-30
MPH. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM AT OR ABOVE
90...ESPECIALLY SINCE SEVERAL SITES REACHED 90F TODAY.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A CAP ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT...BELIEVE THE CAP WILL
BREAK. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACTING TIMING BUT FEEL IT
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONCE THE FRONT
APPROACHES STORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE COVERAGE BEING MORE
SCATTERED TO START WITH PERHAPS TURNING INTO A BROKEN LINE. THE
REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-
2500 J/KG WITH SHEAR VALUES VERY MEAGER...15 KTS FROM 0-6KM. THE
ONLY DOWNFALL FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER CLOSER TO 00Z AND INTO 06Z THE BETTER MOISTURE
APPROACHES THE REGION AND WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND BETTER JET
DYNAMICS ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE BEST AREA TO SEE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF I-95.

THE BIGGEST THREATS FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HELD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS PWAT
ANOMALIES ARE ONLY 1 STANDARD DEVIATION AWAY. THEREFORE FEEL THAT
FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCALIZED WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE NW ZONES...THERE IS MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES CLOSER TO 30 KTS
AND WITH SOME TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPHS COLD SEE UPDRAFTS SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCE WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL STILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER BELIEVE THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AND TURN MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AFTER 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MUCH COOLER THU ALONG WITH RAIN LINGERING SOUTH COAST
* DRY...LESS HUMID AND SEASONABLE THU NGT THRU SAT
* PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID SUN INTO NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES....

NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH ITS
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITING THE SOUTH COAST. POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FRI. THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVERSPREADING NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THRU SAT. BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE /+2 SD/ LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VLLY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL BASE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON A MODEL BLEND.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND AT 12Z THU.
THUS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A TSTM TO LINGER ACROSS
THIS REGION. THE HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC GUID /GFS AND NAM/ ARE
SLOWER WITH THE FROPA AS THESE MODELS FORM A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE
THAN THE ENSEMBLES. THIS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIER RES MODELS WOULD
PERFORM BETTER THAN THE COURSE ENSEMBLES SIMULATING A SMALL SCALE
FRONTAL WAVE. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THU MORNING ACROSS
RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AND TRENDING TO CHANCE AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATER THU. DEPARTURE OF
RAIN WILL BE CRITICAL TO TEMP FORECAST AS THE WETTER GFS 2 METER
TEMPS NEVER CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S! EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND NAM 2
METER TEMPS ARE ONLY INTO THE L70S. THUS A COOLER DAY ON TAP THU AND
IF THE GFS VERIFIES OUR TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INTERIOR CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH N-NE WINDS YIELDING A COOLER DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH A
850 TEMP ANOMALIES AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO...
ABOUT +10C/+11C. HENCE REFRESHING AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THE CORE OF THE DRY/COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS WILL YIELD A VERY COMFORTABLE AND COOL TEMPS
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS PROVIDES DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO
NEW ENGLAND SO EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK/SHALLOW SEA BREEZE ON
EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT INTO WED...VFR TO START. ANTICIPATE PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS
ACROSS INTERIOR DUE TO INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND
FOG AGAIN OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR.
CONDITIONS CLEARING TO VFR BY DAY BREAK.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCE IN PATCHY FOG AHEAD
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE
TIMING. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MVFR POSSIBLE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE IN RAIN...POSSIBLY IFR SOUTH
COAST WITH VFR NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THEN VFR ALL
TERMINALS THU NIGHT INTO SAT. LOW RISK OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MODEST N-NE WIND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

FRI/SAT...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING A MODEST SSW SAT AFTN.

SUN...MODEST SSW WIND ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
SHORE. OTHERWISE MAINLY GOOD VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE TOMORROW MORNING WHILE
CONSTRUCTION TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN ANTICIPATING OF UPCOMING CONVECTION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
EQUIPMENT...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 221759
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN
WITH ISOLATE VERY SMALL SHOWERS ON RADAR. WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z. WITH VERY
MUGGY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO SEE SOME RESTRICTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG OR HAZE TONIGHT. IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CLOUD IS
FORECAST AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MVFR FORECAST. AFTER
DAYBREAK...HEATING FROM SUN AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED ALL SITES DURING
THE DAY DUE TO HAZE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND 1+ INCH HAIL TO THE
TAF SITES.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD /18Z WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KBOX 221741
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TODAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH A TREND TO IMPROVING WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MAKES WAY FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

200 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOUR. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR
RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS HAS BEEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AND THUS THE MUGGINES FACTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES AS WELL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVERHEAD INCREASING UPPER LEVEL TEMPS. NASHUA, NH IS THE HOT
SPOT PER 17Z OBS AT 88F. WEAK SEA BREEZE HAS MOVED ON SHORE
KEEPING BOSTON TEMPS BELOW 80F AT THIS TIME. ANTICIPATE GRADIENT
TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR AND THUS WASHING OUT THE SEABREEZE...SO A RUN AT 85 IS
STILL POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND VT BUT
QUICKLY DIE OUT. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY MAKE THERE WAY INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT THEY WILL STRUGGLE DUE TO MID-LEVEL CAP
AND LACK OF ANY LIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE 2 OR 3 DEGREES MILDER
TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S
COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY IN A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY A MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION BUT THAT CAP SHOULD ERODE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE 1200 TO
2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. A FAIRLY
NOTABLE BUMP OF THE K INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TAKES
PLACE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE SHOWALTER INDICES DROP
TO AROUND -2 TO -3. THE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT
AROUND OR JUST STRONGER THAN 30 KT WITH STRONGER WIND SHEAR
INDICATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THE 00Z NAM RUN PROJECTED CLOSER TO 40 KT SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT QUITE READY TO BUY THAT. AT ANY
RATE...SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PERHAPS AS
FAR EAST AS AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2 INCHES AND SO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN MILD ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BIG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHS DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  UPPER
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR US...THIS WILL BRING
FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PAC NORTHWEST
TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE TOP OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND MOVES EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND PULL
THE TROUGH AXIS BACK TO OUR WEST. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY-MONDAY.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...ALLOWING US TO
USE A CONSENSUS.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MUCH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO
POSITION OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 500 MB WILL BE 35-40 KNOTS. TOTALS NEAR
50/LI -4 AND LOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 2 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST AT 12Z. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION OVERHEAD. THIS
MAY CAUSE A WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND KEEP SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
BUT THE TREND DURING THE DAY WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NH AND THE
CT VALLEY.  TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME CONCERN THAT
FRIDAY WOULD FEATURE MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
INCREASE FRIDAY SKY COVER. THEN ON SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING IN HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL A
COUPLE OF FAIR DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OR A LITTLE
BELOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... AS THE UPPER FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AS SOUTHWEST AND
AIMED UP THE COAST...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FLOW. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OUR WAY AND SPREADS
CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...DAY 6/DAY 7...WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK/SHALLOW SEA BREEZE ON
EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT INTO WED...VFR TO START. ANTICIPATE PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS
ACROSS INTERIOR DUE TO INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND
FOG AGAIN OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR.
CONDITIONS CLEARING TO VFR BY DAY BREAK.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCE IN PATCHY FOG AHEAD
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE
TIMING. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WITH PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR IN FOG...MAINLY
SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADING THE FRONT
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.  SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...BUT BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR IS IN STANDBY MODE TODAY WHILE CONSTRUCTION TAKES
PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE WHEN CONSTRUCTION
ENDS FOR THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 221741
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TODAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH A TREND TO IMPROVING WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MAKES WAY FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

200 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOUR. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR
RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS HAS BEEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AND THUS THE MUGGINES FACTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES AS WELL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVERHEAD INCREASING UPPER LEVEL TEMPS. NASHUA, NH IS THE HOT
SPOT PER 17Z OBS AT 88F. WEAK SEA BREEZE HAS MOVED ON SHORE
KEEPING BOSTON TEMPS BELOW 80F AT THIS TIME. ANTICIPATE GRADIENT
TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR AND THUS WASHING OUT THE SEABREEZE...SO A RUN AT 85 IS
STILL POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND VT BUT
QUICKLY DIE OUT. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY MAKE THERE WAY INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT THEY WILL STRUGGLE DUE TO MID-LEVEL CAP
AND LACK OF ANY LIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE 2 OR 3 DEGREES MILDER
TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S
COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY IN A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY A MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION BUT THAT CAP SHOULD ERODE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE 1200 TO
2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. A FAIRLY
NOTABLE BUMP OF THE K INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TAKES
PLACE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE SHOWALTER INDICES DROP
TO AROUND -2 TO -3. THE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT
AROUND OR JUST STRONGER THAN 30 KT WITH STRONGER WIND SHEAR
INDICATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THE 00Z NAM RUN PROJECTED CLOSER TO 40 KT SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT QUITE READY TO BUY THAT. AT ANY
RATE...SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PERHAPS AS
FAR EAST AS AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2 INCHES AND SO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN MILD ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BIG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHS DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  UPPER
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR US...THIS WILL BRING
FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PAC NORTHWEST
TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE TOP OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND MOVES EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND PULL
THE TROUGH AXIS BACK TO OUR WEST. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY-MONDAY.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...ALLOWING US TO
USE A CONSENSUS.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MUCH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO
POSITION OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 500 MB WILL BE 35-40 KNOTS. TOTALS NEAR
50/LI -4 AND LOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 2 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST AT 12Z. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION OVERHEAD. THIS
MAY CAUSE A WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND KEEP SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
BUT THE TREND DURING THE DAY WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NH AND THE
CT VALLEY.  TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME CONCERN THAT
FRIDAY WOULD FEATURE MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
INCREASE FRIDAY SKY COVER. THEN ON SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING IN HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL A
COUPLE OF FAIR DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OR A LITTLE
BELOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... AS THE UPPER FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AS SOUTHWEST AND
AIMED UP THE COAST...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FLOW. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OUR WAY AND SPREADS
CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...DAY 6/DAY 7...WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK/SHALLOW SEA BREEZE ON
EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT INTO WED...VFR TO START. ANTICIPATE PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS
ACROSS INTERIOR DUE TO INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND
FOG AGAIN OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR.
CONDITIONS CLEARING TO VFR BY DAY BREAK.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCE IN PATCHY FOG AHEAD
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE
TIMING. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WITH PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR IN FOG...MAINLY
SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADING THE FRONT
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.  SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...BUT BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR IS IN STANDBY MODE TODAY WHILE CONSTRUCTION TAKES
PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE WHEN CONSTRUCTION
ENDS FOR THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 221741
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TODAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH A TREND TO IMPROVING WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MAKES WAY FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

200 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOUR. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR
RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS HAS BEEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AND THUS THE MUGGINES FACTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES AS WELL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVERHEAD INCREASING UPPER LEVEL TEMPS. NASHUA, NH IS THE HOT
SPOT PER 17Z OBS AT 88F. WEAK SEA BREEZE HAS MOVED ON SHORE
KEEPING BOSTON TEMPS BELOW 80F AT THIS TIME. ANTICIPATE GRADIENT
TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR AND THUS WASHING OUT THE SEABREEZE...SO A RUN AT 85 IS
STILL POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND VT BUT
QUICKLY DIE OUT. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY MAKE THERE WAY INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT THEY WILL STRUGGLE DUE TO MID-LEVEL CAP
AND LACK OF ANY LIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE 2 OR 3 DEGREES MILDER
TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S
COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY IN A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY A MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION BUT THAT CAP SHOULD ERODE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE 1200 TO
2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. A FAIRLY
NOTABLE BUMP OF THE K INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TAKES
PLACE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE SHOWALTER INDICES DROP
TO AROUND -2 TO -3. THE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT
AROUND OR JUST STRONGER THAN 30 KT WITH STRONGER WIND SHEAR
INDICATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THE 00Z NAM RUN PROJECTED CLOSER TO 40 KT SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT QUITE READY TO BUY THAT. AT ANY
RATE...SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PERHAPS AS
FAR EAST AS AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2 INCHES AND SO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN MILD ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BIG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHS DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  UPPER
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR US...THIS WILL BRING
FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PAC NORTHWEST
TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE TOP OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND MOVES EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND PULL
THE TROUGH AXIS BACK TO OUR WEST. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY-MONDAY.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...ALLOWING US TO
USE A CONSENSUS.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MUCH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO
POSITION OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 500 MB WILL BE 35-40 KNOTS. TOTALS NEAR
50/LI -4 AND LOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 2 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST AT 12Z. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION OVERHEAD. THIS
MAY CAUSE A WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND KEEP SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
BUT THE TREND DURING THE DAY WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NH AND THE
CT VALLEY.  TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME CONCERN THAT
FRIDAY WOULD FEATURE MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
INCREASE FRIDAY SKY COVER. THEN ON SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING IN HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL A
COUPLE OF FAIR DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OR A LITTLE
BELOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... AS THE UPPER FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AS SOUTHWEST AND
AIMED UP THE COAST...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FLOW. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OUR WAY AND SPREADS
CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...DAY 6/DAY 7...WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK/SHALLOW SEA BREEZE ON
EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT INTO WED...VFR TO START. ANTICIPATE PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS
ACROSS INTERIOR DUE TO INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND
FOG AGAIN OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR.
CONDITIONS CLEARING TO VFR BY DAY BREAK.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCE IN PATCHY FOG AHEAD
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE
TIMING. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WITH PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR IN FOG...MAINLY
SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADING THE FRONT
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.  SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...BUT BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR IS IN STANDBY MODE TODAY WHILE CONSTRUCTION TAKES
PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE WHEN CONSTRUCTION
ENDS FOR THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 221741
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TODAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH A TREND TO IMPROVING WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MAKES WAY FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

200 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOUR. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR
RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS HAS BEEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AND THUS THE MUGGINES FACTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES AS WELL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVERHEAD INCREASING UPPER LEVEL TEMPS. NASHUA, NH IS THE HOT
SPOT PER 17Z OBS AT 88F. WEAK SEA BREEZE HAS MOVED ON SHORE
KEEPING BOSTON TEMPS BELOW 80F AT THIS TIME. ANTICIPATE GRADIENT
TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR AND THUS WASHING OUT THE SEABREEZE...SO A RUN AT 85 IS
STILL POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND VT BUT
QUICKLY DIE OUT. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY MAKE THERE WAY INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT THEY WILL STRUGGLE DUE TO MID-LEVEL CAP
AND LACK OF ANY LIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE 2 OR 3 DEGREES MILDER
TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S
COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY IN A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY A MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION BUT THAT CAP SHOULD ERODE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE 1200 TO
2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. A FAIRLY
NOTABLE BUMP OF THE K INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TAKES
PLACE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE SHOWALTER INDICES DROP
TO AROUND -2 TO -3. THE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT
AROUND OR JUST STRONGER THAN 30 KT WITH STRONGER WIND SHEAR
INDICATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THE 00Z NAM RUN PROJECTED CLOSER TO 40 KT SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT QUITE READY TO BUY THAT. AT ANY
RATE...SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PERHAPS AS
FAR EAST AS AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2 INCHES AND SO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN MILD ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BIG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHS DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  UPPER
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR US...THIS WILL BRING
FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PAC NORTHWEST
TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE TOP OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND MOVES EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND PULL
THE TROUGH AXIS BACK TO OUR WEST. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY-MONDAY.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...ALLOWING US TO
USE A CONSENSUS.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MUCH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO
POSITION OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 500 MB WILL BE 35-40 KNOTS. TOTALS NEAR
50/LI -4 AND LOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 2 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST AT 12Z. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION OVERHEAD. THIS
MAY CAUSE A WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND KEEP SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
BUT THE TREND DURING THE DAY WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NH AND THE
CT VALLEY.  TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME CONCERN THAT
FRIDAY WOULD FEATURE MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
INCREASE FRIDAY SKY COVER. THEN ON SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING IN HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL A
COUPLE OF FAIR DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OR A LITTLE
BELOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... AS THE UPPER FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AS SOUTHWEST AND
AIMED UP THE COAST...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FLOW. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OUR WAY AND SPREADS
CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...DAY 6/DAY 7...WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK/SHALLOW SEA BREEZE ON
EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT INTO WED...VFR TO START. ANTICIPATE PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS
ACROSS INTERIOR DUE TO INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND
FOG AGAIN OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR.
CONDITIONS CLEARING TO VFR BY DAY BREAK.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCE IN PATCHY FOG AHEAD
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE
TIMING. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WITH PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR IN FOG...MAINLY
SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADING THE FRONT
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.  SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...BUT BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR IS IN STANDBY MODE TODAY WHILE CONSTRUCTION TAKES
PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE WHEN CONSTRUCTION
ENDS FOR THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KALY 221723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN
WITH ISOLATE VERY SMALL SHOWERS ON RADAR. WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...GJM/SND
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 221723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN
WITH ISOLATE VERY SMALL SHOWERS ON RADAR. WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...GJM/SND
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM











000
FXUS61 KALY 221501
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1101 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. FIRST SMALL ECHO IS
ON RADAR JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING FAST TODAY WITH ALBANY AIRPORT 78F AT 10 AM...WITH 80
CURRENTLY HERE ON ROOF. LATEST UPDATE INCLUDES NERFC QPF AND
WINDS BASED ON 12Z NAM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS NEXT 36 HOURS
BASED ON QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221501
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1101 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. FIRST SMALL ECHO IS
ON RADAR JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING FAST TODAY WITH ALBANY AIRPORT 78F AT 10 AM...WITH 80
CURRENTLY HERE ON ROOF. LATEST UPDATE INCLUDES NERFC QPF AND
WINDS BASED ON 12Z NAM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS NEXT 36 HOURS
BASED ON QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 221424
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1024 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TODAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH A TREND TO IMPROVING WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MAKES WAY FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MIXING AND
FULL SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE BIGGEST CHANGE IS TO ADD IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE SEABREEZE LATE THIS MORNING. NOTICED A FEW MESONET SITES
ARE ALREADY SWITCHING MORE IN A EASTERLY TRAJECTORY. THIS MAY DROP
BOSTONS TEMPS A TAD BUT THIS SEABREEZE SHOULD MIX OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE TWO MAIN ISSUES TODAY INVOLVE BURNING OFF OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AND RISK OF ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.

WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. HAVE A STRONG SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT DEVELOPING SW FLOW AND GRADUALLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY SLOW THE PACE AT WHICH THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF
OVER THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

CONVECTION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODELS DEPICT MID LEVEL CAP BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO NEAR ZERO AND THE K
INDEX RISES TO NEAR 30 FOR A PERIOD. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPED MON AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN AN AIR MASS THAT
IS SLIDING IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE 2 OR 3 DEGREES MILDER
TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S
COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY IN A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY A MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION BUT THAT CAP SHOULD ERODE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE 1200 TO
2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. A FAIRLY
NOTABLE BUMP OF THE K INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TAKES
PLACE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE SHOWALTER INDICES DROP
TO AROUND -2 TO -3. THE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT
AROUND OR JUST STRONGER THAN 30 KT WITH STRONGER WIND SHEAR
INDICATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THE 00Z NAM RUN PROJECTED CLOSER TO 40 KT SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT QUITE READY TO BUY THAT. AT ANY
RATE...SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PERHAPS AS
FAR EAST AS AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2 INCHES AND SO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN MILD ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BIG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHS DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  UPPER
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR US...THIS WILL BRING
FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PAC NORTHWEST
TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE TOP OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND MOVES EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND PULL
THE TROUGH AXIS BACK TO OUR WEST. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY-MONDAY.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...ALLOWING US TO
USE A CONSENSUS.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MUCH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO
POSITION OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 500 MB WILL BE 35-40 KNOTS. TOTALS NEAR
50/LI -4 AND LOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 2 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST AT 12Z. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION OVERHEAD. THIS
MAY CAUSE A WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND KEEP SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
BUT THE TREND DURING THE DAY WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NH AND THE
CT VALLEY.  TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME CONCERN THAT
FRIDAY WOULD FEATURE MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
INCREASE FRIDAY SKY COVER. THEN ON SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING IN HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL A
COUPLE OF FAIR DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OR A LITTLE
BELOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... AS THE UPPER FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AS SOUTHWEST AND
AIMED UP THE COAST...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FLOW. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OUR WAY AND SPREADS
CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...DAY 6/DAY 7...WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAPE AND NANTUCKET AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS
IN FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THEN REAPPEAR ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WED MID AFTERNOON.

DURING LATE WED AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NW OF AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION WITH PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR
IN FOG...MAINLY SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADING THE FRONT
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.  SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...BUT BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR IS IN STANDBY MODE TODAY WHILE CONSTRUCTION TAKES
PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE WHEN CONSTRUCTION
ENDS FOR THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 221424
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1024 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TODAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH A TREND TO IMPROVING WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MAKES WAY FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MIXING AND
FULL SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE BIGGEST CHANGE IS TO ADD IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE SEABREEZE LATE THIS MORNING. NOTICED A FEW MESONET SITES
ARE ALREADY SWITCHING MORE IN A EASTERLY TRAJECTORY. THIS MAY DROP
BOSTONS TEMPS A TAD BUT THIS SEABREEZE SHOULD MIX OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE TWO MAIN ISSUES TODAY INVOLVE BURNING OFF OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AND RISK OF ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.

WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. HAVE A STRONG SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT DEVELOPING SW FLOW AND GRADUALLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY SLOW THE PACE AT WHICH THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF
OVER THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

CONVECTION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODELS DEPICT MID LEVEL CAP BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO NEAR ZERO AND THE K
INDEX RISES TO NEAR 30 FOR A PERIOD. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPED MON AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN AN AIR MASS THAT
IS SLIDING IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE 2 OR 3 DEGREES MILDER
TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S
COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY IN A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY A MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION BUT THAT CAP SHOULD ERODE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE 1200 TO
2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. A FAIRLY
NOTABLE BUMP OF THE K INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TAKES
PLACE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE SHOWALTER INDICES DROP
TO AROUND -2 TO -3. THE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT
AROUND OR JUST STRONGER THAN 30 KT WITH STRONGER WIND SHEAR
INDICATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THE 00Z NAM RUN PROJECTED CLOSER TO 40 KT SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT QUITE READY TO BUY THAT. AT ANY
RATE...SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PERHAPS AS
FAR EAST AS AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2 INCHES AND SO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN MILD ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BIG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHS DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  UPPER
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR US...THIS WILL BRING
FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PAC NORTHWEST
TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE TOP OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND MOVES EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND PULL
THE TROUGH AXIS BACK TO OUR WEST. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY-MONDAY.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...ALLOWING US TO
USE A CONSENSUS.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MUCH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO
POSITION OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 500 MB WILL BE 35-40 KNOTS. TOTALS NEAR
50/LI -4 AND LOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 2 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST AT 12Z. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION OVERHEAD. THIS
MAY CAUSE A WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND KEEP SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
BUT THE TREND DURING THE DAY WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NH AND THE
CT VALLEY.  TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME CONCERN THAT
FRIDAY WOULD FEATURE MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
INCREASE FRIDAY SKY COVER. THEN ON SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING IN HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL A
COUPLE OF FAIR DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OR A LITTLE
BELOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... AS THE UPPER FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AS SOUTHWEST AND
AIMED UP THE COAST...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FLOW. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OUR WAY AND SPREADS
CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...DAY 6/DAY 7...WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAPE AND NANTUCKET AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS
IN FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THEN REAPPEAR ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WED MID AFTERNOON.

DURING LATE WED AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NW OF AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION WITH PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR
IN FOG...MAINLY SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADING THE FRONT
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.  SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...BUT BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR IS IN STANDBY MODE TODAY WHILE CONSTRUCTION TAKES
PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE WHEN CONSTRUCTION
ENDS FOR THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 221303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
903 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE BASED MAINLY ON 12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING. 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST RAIN SHOWERS. UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE THUNDER. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE- ISOLATED POPS. HIGHS TODAY STILL EXPECTED
TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

UPDATE ALSO INCLUDED CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND CHANGES TO MORNING TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO CHANGES BEYOND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
903 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE BASED MAINLY ON 12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING. 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST RAIN SHOWERS. UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE THUNDER. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE- ISOLATED POPS. HIGHS TODAY STILL EXPECTED
TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

UPDATE ALSO INCLUDED CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND CHANGES TO MORNING TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO CHANGES BEYOND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
903 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE BASED MAINLY ON 12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING. 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST RAIN SHOWERS. UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE THUNDER. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE- ISOLATED POPS. HIGHS TODAY STILL EXPECTED
TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

UPDATE ALSO INCLUDED CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND CHANGES TO MORNING TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO CHANGES BEYOND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
903 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE BASED MAINLY ON 12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING. 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST RAIN SHOWERS. UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE THUNDER. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE- ISOLATED POPS. HIGHS TODAY STILL EXPECTED
TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

UPDATE ALSO INCLUDED CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND CHANGES TO MORNING TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO CHANGES BEYOND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KBOX 221100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TODAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH A TREND TO IMPROVING WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MAKES WAY FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...
FOG LINGERS ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND THE ISLANDS. ALSO SOME
PATCHY FOG IN PLACES SUCH AS NORWOOD AND WESTFIELD. THIS SHOULD
BURN OFF SHORTLY THIS MORNING. WE HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE EARLIER TIMING. HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED A
LITTLE LOWER BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS...BUT NO CHANGE TO
EXPECTED VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE TWO MAIN ISSUES TODAY INVOLVE BURNING OFF OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AND RISK OF ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.

WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. HAVE A STRONG SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT DEVELOPING SW FLOW AND GRADUALLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY SLOW THE PACE AT WHICH THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF
OVER THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

CONVECTION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODELS DEPICT MID LEVEL CAP BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO NEAR ZERO AND THE K
INDEX RISES TO NEAR 30 FOR A PERIOD. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPED MON AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN AN AIR MASS THAT
IS SLIDING IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE 2 OR 3 DEGREES MILDER
TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S
COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY IN A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY A MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION BUT THAT CAP SHOULD ERODE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE 1200 TO
2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. A FAIRLY
NOTABLE BUMP OF THE K INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TAKES
PLACE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE SHOWALTER INDICES DROP
TO AROUND -2 TO -3. THE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT
AROUND OR JUST STRONGER THAN 30 KT WITH STRONGER WIND SHEAR
INDICATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THE 00Z NAM RUN PROJECTED CLOSER TO 40 KT SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT QUITE READY TO BUY THAT. AT ANY
RATE...SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PERHAPS AS
FAR EAST AS AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2 INCHES AND SO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN MILD ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BIG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHS DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  UPPER
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR US...THIS WILL BRING
FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PAC NORTHWEST
TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE TOP OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND MOVES EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND PULL
THE TROUGH AXIS BACK TO OUR WEST. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY-MONDAY.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...ALLOWING US TO
USE A CONSENSUS.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MUCH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO
POSITION OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 500 MB WILL BE 35-40 KNOTS. TOTALS NEAR
50/LI -4 AND LOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 2 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST AT 12Z. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION OVERHEAD. THIS
MAY CAUSE A WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND KEEP SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
BUT THE TREND DURING THE DAY WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NH AND THE
CT VALLEY.  TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME CONCERN THAT
FRIDAY WOULD FEATURE MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
INCREASE FRIDAY SKY COVER. THEN ON SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING IN HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL A
COUPLE OF FAIR DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OR A LITTLE
BELOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... AS THE UPPER FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AS SOUTHWEST AND
AIMED UP THE COAST...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FLOW. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OUR WAY AND SPREADS
CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...DAY 6/DAY 7...WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAPE AND NANTUCKET AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS
IN FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THEN REAPPEAR ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WED MID AFTERNOON.

DURING LATE WED AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NW OF AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF WED...ALTHOUG AREAS OF FOG COULD REDUCE
VSBY TO 5 TO 6 MI FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK
OF TSTMS APPROACHING THE FIELD AFTER ABOUT 23Z WED.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON WED...EXCEPT FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TSTMS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD SOMETIME AFTER ABOUT 20Z WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION WITH PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR
IN FOG...MAINLY SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADING THE FRONT
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.  SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...BUT BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR IS IN STANDBY MODE TODAY WHILE CONSTRUCTION TAKES
PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE WHEN CONSTRUCTION
ENDS FOR THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 221100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TODAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH A TREND TO IMPROVING WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MAKES WAY FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...
FOG LINGERS ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND THE ISLANDS. ALSO SOME
PATCHY FOG IN PLACES SUCH AS NORWOOD AND WESTFIELD. THIS SHOULD
BURN OFF SHORTLY THIS MORNING. WE HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE EARLIER TIMING. HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED A
LITTLE LOWER BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS...BUT NO CHANGE TO
EXPECTED VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE TWO MAIN ISSUES TODAY INVOLVE BURNING OFF OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AND RISK OF ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.

WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. HAVE A STRONG SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT DEVELOPING SW FLOW AND GRADUALLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY SLOW THE PACE AT WHICH THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF
OVER THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

CONVECTION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODELS DEPICT MID LEVEL CAP BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO NEAR ZERO AND THE K
INDEX RISES TO NEAR 30 FOR A PERIOD. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPED MON AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN AN AIR MASS THAT
IS SLIDING IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE 2 OR 3 DEGREES MILDER
TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S
COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY IN A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY A MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION BUT THAT CAP SHOULD ERODE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE 1200 TO
2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. A FAIRLY
NOTABLE BUMP OF THE K INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TAKES
PLACE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE SHOWALTER INDICES DROP
TO AROUND -2 TO -3. THE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT
AROUND OR JUST STRONGER THAN 30 KT WITH STRONGER WIND SHEAR
INDICATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THE 00Z NAM RUN PROJECTED CLOSER TO 40 KT SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT QUITE READY TO BUY THAT. AT ANY
RATE...SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PERHAPS AS
FAR EAST AS AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2 INCHES AND SO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN MILD ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BIG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHS DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  UPPER
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR US...THIS WILL BRING
FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PAC NORTHWEST
TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE TOP OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND MOVES EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND PULL
THE TROUGH AXIS BACK TO OUR WEST. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY-MONDAY.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...ALLOWING US TO
USE A CONSENSUS.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MUCH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO
POSITION OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 500 MB WILL BE 35-40 KNOTS. TOTALS NEAR
50/LI -4 AND LOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 2 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST AT 12Z. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION OVERHEAD. THIS
MAY CAUSE A WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND KEEP SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
BUT THE TREND DURING THE DAY WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NH AND THE
CT VALLEY.  TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME CONCERN THAT
FRIDAY WOULD FEATURE MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
INCREASE FRIDAY SKY COVER. THEN ON SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING IN HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL A
COUPLE OF FAIR DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OR A LITTLE
BELOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... AS THE UPPER FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AS SOUTHWEST AND
AIMED UP THE COAST...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FLOW. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OUR WAY AND SPREADS
CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...DAY 6/DAY 7...WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAPE AND NANTUCKET AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS
IN FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THEN REAPPEAR ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WED MID AFTERNOON.

DURING LATE WED AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NW OF AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF WED...ALTHOUG AREAS OF FOG COULD REDUCE
VSBY TO 5 TO 6 MI FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK
OF TSTMS APPROACHING THE FIELD AFTER ABOUT 23Z WED.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON WED...EXCEPT FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TSTMS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD SOMETIME AFTER ABOUT 20Z WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION WITH PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR
IN FOG...MAINLY SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADING THE FRONT
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.  SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...BUT BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR IS IN STANDBY MODE TODAY WHILE CONSTRUCTION TAKES
PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE WHEN CONSTRUCTION
ENDS FOR THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KALY 221024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
624 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY RETURNS TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR MASS FILTERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PATCHES
OF FOG PER REGIONAL METARS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE TODAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND A WARMER THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION. FORECAST PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION
AROUND H700 SO CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. AS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION IS
RATHER LOW AND BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL SO NO EXPECTING ANY
THUNDER. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM SPC/LOCAL-
WRF/HRRR/15M-HRRR STILL ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE-
ISOLATED POPS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE MUGGY
INDEED AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY MORNING MVFR BR WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT KGFL/KPSF...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 221024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
624 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY RETURNS TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR MASS FILTERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PATCHES
OF FOG PER REGIONAL METARS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE TODAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND A WARMER THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION. FORECAST PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION
AROUND H700 SO CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. AS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION IS
RATHER LOW AND BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL SO NO EXPECTING ANY
THUNDER. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM SPC/LOCAL-
WRF/HRRR/15M-HRRR STILL ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE-
ISOLATED POPS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE MUGGY
INDEED AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY MORNING MVFR BR WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT KGFL/KPSF...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 221024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
624 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY RETURNS TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR MASS FILTERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PATCHES
OF FOG PER REGIONAL METARS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE TODAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND A WARMER THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION. FORECAST PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION
AROUND H700 SO CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. AS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION IS
RATHER LOW AND BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL SO NO EXPECTING ANY
THUNDER. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM SPC/LOCAL-
WRF/HRRR/15M-HRRR STILL ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE-
ISOLATED POPS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE MUGGY
INDEED AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY MORNING MVFR BR WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT KGFL/KPSF...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 221024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
624 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY RETURNS TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR MASS FILTERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PATCHES
OF FOG PER REGIONAL METARS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE TODAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND A WARMER THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION. FORECAST PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION
AROUND H700 SO CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. AS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION IS
RATHER LOW AND BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL SO NO EXPECTING ANY
THUNDER. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM SPC/LOCAL-
WRF/HRRR/15M-HRRR STILL ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE-
ISOLATED POPS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE MUGGY
INDEED AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY MORNING MVFR BR WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT KGFL/KPSF...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBOX 220759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TODAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH A TREND TO IMPROVING WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MAKES WAY FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE TWO MAIN ISSUES TODAY INVOLVE BURNING OFF OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AND RISK OF ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.

WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. HAVE A STRONG SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT DEVELOPING SW FLOW AND GRADUALLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY SLOW THE PACE AT WHICH THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF
OVER THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

CONVECTION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODELS DEPICT MID LEVEL CAP BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO NEAR ZERO AND THE K
INDEX RISES TO NEAR 30 FOR A PERIOD. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPED MON AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN AN AIR MASS THAT
IS SLIDING IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE 2 OR 3 DEGREES MILDER
TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S
COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY IN A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY A MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION BUT THAT CAP SHOULD ERODE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE 1200 TO
2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. A FAIRLY
NOTABLE BUMP OF THE K INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TAKES
PLACE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE SHOWALTER INDICES DROP
TO AROUND -2 TO -3. THE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT
AROUND OR JUST STRONGER THAN 30 KT WITH STRONGER WIND SHEAR
INDICATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THE 00Z NAM RUN PROJECTED CLOSER TO 40 KT SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT QUITE READY TO BUY THAT. AT ANY
RATE...SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PERHAPS AS
FAR EAST AS AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2 INCHES AND SO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN MILD ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... BIG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHS DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  UPPER
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR US...THIS WILL BRING
FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PAC NORTHWEST
TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE TOP OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND MOVES EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND PULL
THE TROUGH AXIS BACK TO OUR WEST. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY-MONDAY.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...ALLOWING US TO
USE A CONSENSUS.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MUCH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO
POSITION OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 500 MB WILL BE 35-40 KNOTS. TOTALS NEAR
50/LI -4 AND LOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 2 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST AT 12Z. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION OVERHEAD. THIS
MAY CAUSE A WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND KEEP SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
BUT THE TREND DURING THE DAY WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NH AND THE
CT VALLEY.  TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME CONCERN THAT
FRIDAY WOULD FEATURE MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
INCREASE FRIDAY SKY COVER. THEN ON SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING IN HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL A
COUPLE OF FAIR DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OR A LITTLE
BELOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... AS THE UPPER FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AS SOUTHWEST AND
AIMED UP THE COAST...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FLOW. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OUR WAY AND SPREADS
CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...DAY 6/DAY 7...WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAPE
AND NANTUCKET AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THEN
REAPPEAR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED MID AFTERNOON.

DURING LATE WED AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NW OF AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF WED...ALTHOUG AREAS OF FOG COULD REDUCE
VSBY TO 5 TO 6 MI FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK
OF TSTMS APPROACHING THE FIELD AFTER ABOUT 23Z WED.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON WED...EXCEPT FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TSTMS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD SOMETIME AFTER ABOUT 20Z WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION WITH PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR
IN FOG...MAINLY SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADING THE FRONT
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.  SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...BUT BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TODAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH A TREND TO IMPROVING WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MAKES WAY FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE TWO MAIN ISSUES TODAY INVOLVE BURNING OFF OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AND RISK OF ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.

WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. HAVE A STRONG SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT DEVELOPING SW FLOW AND GRADUALLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY SLOW THE PACE AT WHICH THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF
OVER THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

CONVECTION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODELS DEPICT MID LEVEL CAP BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO NEAR ZERO AND THE K
INDEX RISES TO NEAR 30 FOR A PERIOD. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPED MON AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN AN AIR MASS THAT
IS SLIDING IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE 2 OR 3 DEGREES MILDER
TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S
COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY IN A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY A MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION BUT THAT CAP SHOULD ERODE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE 1200 TO
2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. A FAIRLY
NOTABLE BUMP OF THE K INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TAKES
PLACE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE SHOWALTER INDICES DROP
TO AROUND -2 TO -3. THE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT
AROUND OR JUST STRONGER THAN 30 KT WITH STRONGER WIND SHEAR
INDICATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THE 00Z NAM RUN PROJECTED CLOSER TO 40 KT SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT QUITE READY TO BUY THAT. AT ANY
RATE...SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PERHAPS AS
FAR EAST AS AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2 INCHES AND SO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN MILD ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... BIG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHS DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  UPPER
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR US...THIS WILL BRING
FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PAC NORTHWEST
TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE TOP OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND MOVES EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND PULL
THE TROUGH AXIS BACK TO OUR WEST. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY-MONDAY.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...ALLOWING US TO
USE A CONSENSUS.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MUCH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO
POSITION OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 500 MB WILL BE 35-40 KNOTS. TOTALS NEAR
50/LI -4 AND LOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 2 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST AT 12Z. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION OVERHEAD. THIS
MAY CAUSE A WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND KEEP SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
BUT THE TREND DURING THE DAY WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NH AND THE
CT VALLEY.  TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME CONCERN THAT
FRIDAY WOULD FEATURE MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
INCREASE FRIDAY SKY COVER. THEN ON SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING IN HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL A
COUPLE OF FAIR DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OR A LITTLE
BELOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... AS THE UPPER FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AS SOUTHWEST AND
AIMED UP THE COAST...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FLOW. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OUR WAY AND SPREADS
CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...DAY 6/DAY 7...WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAPE
AND NANTUCKET AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THEN
REAPPEAR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED MID AFTERNOON.

DURING LATE WED AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NW OF AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF WED...ALTHOUG AREAS OF FOG COULD REDUCE
VSBY TO 5 TO 6 MI FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK
OF TSTMS APPROACHING THE FIELD AFTER ABOUT 23Z WED.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON WED...EXCEPT FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TSTMS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD SOMETIME AFTER ABOUT 20Z WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION WITH PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR
IN FOG...MAINLY SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADING THE FRONT
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.  SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...BUT BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TODAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH A TREND TO IMPROVING WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MAKES WAY FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE TWO MAIN ISSUES TODAY INVOLVE BURNING OFF OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AND RISK OF ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.

WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. HAVE A STRONG SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT DEVELOPING SW FLOW AND GRADUALLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY SLOW THE PACE AT WHICH THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF
OVER THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

CONVECTION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODELS DEPICT MID LEVEL CAP BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO NEAR ZERO AND THE K
INDEX RISES TO NEAR 30 FOR A PERIOD. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPED MON AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN AN AIR MASS THAT
IS SLIDING IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE 2 OR 3 DEGREES MILDER
TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S
COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY IN A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY A MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION BUT THAT CAP SHOULD ERODE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE 1200 TO
2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. A FAIRLY
NOTABLE BUMP OF THE K INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TAKES
PLACE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE SHOWALTER INDICES DROP
TO AROUND -2 TO -3. THE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT
AROUND OR JUST STRONGER THAN 30 KT WITH STRONGER WIND SHEAR
INDICATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THE 00Z NAM RUN PROJECTED CLOSER TO 40 KT SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT QUITE READY TO BUY THAT. AT ANY
RATE...SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PERHAPS AS
FAR EAST AS AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2 INCHES AND SO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN MILD ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... BIG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHS DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  UPPER
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR US...THIS WILL BRING
FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PAC NORTHWEST
TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE TOP OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND MOVES EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND PULL
THE TROUGH AXIS BACK TO OUR WEST. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY-MONDAY.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...ALLOWING US TO
USE A CONSENSUS.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MUCH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO
POSITION OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 500 MB WILL BE 35-40 KNOTS. TOTALS NEAR
50/LI -4 AND LOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 2 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST AT 12Z. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION OVERHEAD. THIS
MAY CAUSE A WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND KEEP SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
BUT THE TREND DURING THE DAY WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NH AND THE
CT VALLEY.  TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME CONCERN THAT
FRIDAY WOULD FEATURE MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
INCREASE FRIDAY SKY COVER. THEN ON SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING IN HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL A
COUPLE OF FAIR DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OR A LITTLE
BELOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... AS THE UPPER FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AS SOUTHWEST AND
AIMED UP THE COAST...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FLOW. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OUR WAY AND SPREADS
CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...DAY 6/DAY 7...WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAPE
AND NANTUCKET AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THEN
REAPPEAR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED MID AFTERNOON.

DURING LATE WED AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NW OF AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF WED...ALTHOUG AREAS OF FOG COULD REDUCE
VSBY TO 5 TO 6 MI FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK
OF TSTMS APPROACHING THE FIELD AFTER ABOUT 23Z WED.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON WED...EXCEPT FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TSTMS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD SOMETIME AFTER ABOUT 20Z WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION WITH PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR
IN FOG...MAINLY SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADING THE FRONT
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.  SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...BUT BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TODAY...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH A TREND TO IMPROVING WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MAKES WAY FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE TWO MAIN ISSUES TODAY INVOLVE BURNING OFF OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AND RISK OF ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WEST.

WITH REGARD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. HAVE A STRONG SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT DEVELOPING SW FLOW AND GRADUALLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY SLOW THE PACE AT WHICH THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF
OVER THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

CONVECTION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODELS DEPICT MID LEVEL CAP BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE BERKSHIRES WHERE SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS TO NEAR ZERO AND THE K
INDEX RISES TO NEAR 30 FOR A PERIOD. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPED MON AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN AN AIR MASS THAT
IS SLIDING IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE 2 OR 3 DEGREES MILDER
TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S. ALSO EXPECTING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG S
COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY IN A FEW INTERIOR VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...WEATHER BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY A MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION BUT THAT CAP SHOULD ERODE AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE 1200 TO
2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. A FAIRLY
NOTABLE BUMP OF THE K INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TAKES
PLACE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE SHOWALTER INDICES DROP
TO AROUND -2 TO -3. THE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AT
AROUND OR JUST STRONGER THAN 30 KT WITH STRONGER WIND SHEAR
INDICATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF.
THE 00Z NAM RUN PROJECTED CLOSER TO 40 KT SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT QUITE READY TO BUY THAT. AT ANY
RATE...SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO PERHAPS AS
FAR EAST AS AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2 INCHES AND SO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED AS WELL. HAVE PUT IN MILD ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION THE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK IN THE
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... BIG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHS DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  UPPER
RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FOR US...THIS WILL BRING
FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PAC NORTHWEST
TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE TOP OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND MOVES EAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL MERGE WITH THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND PULL
THE TROUGH AXIS BACK TO OUR WEST. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW UP OVER
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY-MONDAY.

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS...ALLOWING US TO
USE A CONSENSUS.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MUCH OF OUR
REGION WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO
POSITION OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 500 MB WILL BE 35-40 KNOTS. TOTALS NEAR
50/LI -4 AND LOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 2 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST AT 12Z. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET WILL STILL BE IN POSITION OVERHEAD. THIS
MAY CAUSE A WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT AND KEEP SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MORNING.
BUT THE TREND DURING THE DAY WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN NH AND THE
CT VALLEY.  TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOME CONCERN THAT
FRIDAY WOULD FEATURE MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.  THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
INCREASE FRIDAY SKY COVER. THEN ON SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASING IN HIGH CLOUDS. OVERALL A
COUPLE OF FAIR DAYS WITH TEMPS AT SEASONABLE LEVELS OR A LITTLE
BELOW.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... AS THE UPPER FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES AS SOUTHWEST AND
AIMED UP THE COAST...A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FLOW. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OUR WAY AND SPREADS
CLOUDS AND RAIN OUR WAY ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT THIS IS...DAY 6/DAY 7...WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAPE
AND NANTUCKET AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THEN
REAPPEAR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED MID AFTERNOON.

DURING LATE WED AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN VICINITY OF SCT
TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NW OF AN ASH-LWM-BED-IJD LINE.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF WED...ALTHOUG AREAS OF FOG COULD REDUCE
VSBY TO 5 TO 6 MI FOR A SHORT TIME TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK
OF TSTMS APPROACHING THE FIELD AFTER ABOUT 23Z WED.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON WED...EXCEPT FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TSTMS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD SOMETIME AFTER ABOUT 20Z WED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION WITH PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. PATCHY IFR
IN FOG...MAINLY SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LEADING THE FRONT
MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.  SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...BUT BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 15
KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 5 FEET.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON



000
FXUS61 KALY 220739
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
339 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY RETURNS TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR MASS FILTERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WITH PATCHES
OF FOG PER REGIONAL METARS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE TODAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND A WARMER THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION. FORECAST PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION
AROUND H700 SO CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. AS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION IS
RATHER LOW AND BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL SO NO EXPECTING ANY
THUNDER. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM SPC/LOCAL-
WRF/HRRR STILL ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE-ISOLATED
POPS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE MUGGY
INDEED AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN RECENT NIGHTS...SOME IFR RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP
AT KGFL/KPSF.  THIS FOG WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH OF A T/TD
SPREAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT
DIURNAL CU. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 220739
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
339 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY RETURNS TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR MASS FILTERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WITH PATCHES
OF FOG PER REGIONAL METARS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE TODAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND A WARMER THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION. FORECAST PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION
AROUND H700 SO CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. AS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION IS
RATHER LOW AND BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL SO NO EXPECTING ANY
THUNDER. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM SPC/LOCAL-
WRF/HRRR STILL ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE-ISOLATED
POPS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE MUGGY
INDEED AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN RECENT NIGHTS...SOME IFR RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP
AT KGFL/KPSF.  THIS FOG WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH OF A T/TD
SPREAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT
DIURNAL CU. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220552
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
152 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AROUND DAYBREAK ALLOWING
FOR AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THE REGION. LESS HUMID AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY FRIDAY
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PRIOR FORECAST. EVOLUTION OF
THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS REMAINS THE MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT.
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE NOT ADVECTING MUCH FURTHER WEST
THAN THE MID CAPE AND CAPE COD BAY AS SURFACE FLOW IS BEGINNING TO
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO
FORM SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS BUT NOT ALL THAT EXTENSIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND THUS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INCREASING THE
HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM THE RETURN OF NEW ENGLAND SUMMER...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF TOMORROW IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BELIEVE
THIS THREAT IS BEING OVERPLAYED BY THE MODELS AS WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT...WILL CREATE A CAP LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BELIEVE DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR. AT THE VERY LEAST A POP-UP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY GIVE WAY AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE KEPT POPS BELOW
20S AND INCLUDED ISOLATED WORDING.

TOMORROW NIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE JUST AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY PRONE REGIONS AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
 - POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - THREATS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND
 - DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY
 - UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SOME DIFFICULTY IN DISCERNING THE N HEMISPHERIC PATTERN. NAO/AO
PATTERNS ARE NEAR-NEUTRAL WHILE THE MJO IS CONCLUDED AS INCOHERENT
BY CPC. LIKELY COMPLICATIONS WITH W PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
BECOMING USURPED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY THE
LARGE VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLE PNA FORECASTS. BUT NOTABLY THUS FAR
WITHIN THE FIRST-HALF OF JULY...POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
APPARENT OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND NW ATLANTIC. THIS IS RESULTING IN
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN TO BUCKLE WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND E-HALF OF THE CONUS COLLOCATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS
INCREASE AND CYCLONIC-NATURE OF THE H2 JET.

SO WHILE NO CERTAINTY AS HOW THE LONG-TERM PATTERN MAY EVOLVE...
WILL PREVAIL WITH PRESENT BUCKLING PATTERN AND PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE E-HALF OF THE CONUS. COINCIDING WITH THE 6-10/8-14 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS PER CPC...BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
BUT EVALUATING THE NAEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE...ITS ANTICIPATED THAT THE
NE CONUS WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE PREFERRED TROUGH
PATTERN THUS IN PROXIMITY TO CYCLONICALLY DIGGING DISTURBANCES. WITH
ANY WOBBLE IN THE PATTERN...WE COULD FIND OURSELVES ON EITHER THE
WARM OR COOL SIDE OF THE PATTERN. THIS LENDS TO OBVIOUSLY DECREASING
CONFIDENCE FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST.

BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL OUTLINE HIGH POINTS
ALONG WITH CONFIDENCE AND PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT SWEEPS GRADUALLY SE INTO S NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...OVERALL
THERE IS CONSENSUS PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING OF SW TROPICAL FLOW
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT UNDERGOES DEEP-LAYER LIFT PER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET...THE BETTER OF WHICH
APPEARS TO RESIDE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO N NEW ENGLAND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY.

UPON A CONSENSUS...EXPECT THE FRONT INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING
SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WARM-SECTOR LOOKS TO BE CAPPED WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND H7
WARMING TO NEAR +10C.

ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT WHERE
THE GREATEST FORCING RESIDES ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE AND
THE CAP TO BREAK. WITH THE MAINLY NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED IN A REGION OF STRONG SW-NE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
CONVECTIVE THREATS SUCH AS DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THAT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH PWATS EDGING UP TO 2-INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICAL INFLUENCES...THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WILL EMPHASIZE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
INITIALLY FOR W NEW ENGLAND...WITH HEAVY RAIN FOR THE EVENING FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SOME FINAL NOTES...EXPECT LOW STRATUS IMPACTING S/SE COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND AS HIGH THETA-E/DEWPOINT MOISTURE UNDERGOES WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...HOT HUMID AND
STICKY DURING THE DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90-DEGREES CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE FOR
THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN UNDER SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE AGREES UPON THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN
THE DAY INTO EVENING...THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD DRAG ENERGY BACK N/W TOWARDS LOWER
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROUGH. THUS WILL HOLD WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED CONCERN OF
DEEP-LAYER LIFT EXACERBATING POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING. SUCH THREATS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED MAINLY FOR THE
EARLY-HALF OF THE DAY WHERE PWATS UP TO 2-INCHES PREVAIL.

FRIDAY...

TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION ATTENDANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND H85 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND +12C. WILL PREVAIL WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. PERHAPS SOME WEAK
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THROWING OUT THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP WITH THE NAEFS...
GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PROLONGED TROUGHING IS PREFERRED ALONG
WITH BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS TO WHETHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL FLUTTER ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...A SEASONABLE AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED...THE SPECIFICS AND TIMING OF WHICH ARE UNKNOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...LOW CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT TERMINALS ALONG THE
MID AND OUTER CAPE AS WELL AS NANTUCKET. A FEW PATCHES IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR VALLEYS BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL
THAT WIDESPREAD.

TERMINALS IMPROVE VFR INTO TUESDAY AS LOW CIGS AND FOG SLINK OFF
TO THE SE. SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...OTHERWISE
DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT. WHILE MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT
OF MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE S/SE
COASTLINE TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF OVERNIGHT AND THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. NOW THINKING THAT THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG OFFSHORE MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO BOS BEFORE THE WEAK
SURFACE WIND FLOW SHIFTS TO BE MORE FROM THE SW. WOULD NOT BET THE
BANK ON IT AND WILL BE MONITORING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY FOR TRENDS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. SWEEPING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF WHICH TSRA/+RA AND SW WINDS
GUSTING 25 KTS POSSIBLE. TEMPO MVFR-IFR. LOW MVFR-IFR CIGS AND FOG
POSSIBLE FOR IMMEDIATE S/SE COASTLINE TERMINALS. TIMING FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT NW-SE THURSDAY. WINDS
BACK NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE WEAKER.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT N WINDS BACKING W/SW WITH TIME. SEA-BREEZES ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORES DURING THE DAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SCA MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NEAR SHORE AS WINDS MAY REACH 25KTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE
AHEAD INITIALLY ALONG THE S/SE WATERS...FOLLOWED BY LATER THREATS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. GUSTY SW
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL PUSH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. SMALL-CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WAVES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT TO SEA.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX OUT
OF THE N AND LATER BACK SW. ANTICIPATE SEAS TO DIMINISH AND GOOD
BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220552
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
152 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AROUND DAYBREAK ALLOWING
FOR AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THE REGION. LESS HUMID AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY FRIDAY
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PRIOR FORECAST. EVOLUTION OF
THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS REMAINS THE MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT.
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE NOT ADVECTING MUCH FURTHER WEST
THAN THE MID CAPE AND CAPE COD BAY AS SURFACE FLOW IS BEGINNING TO
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO
FORM SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS BUT NOT ALL THAT EXTENSIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND THUS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INCREASING THE
HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM THE RETURN OF NEW ENGLAND SUMMER...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF TOMORROW IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BELIEVE
THIS THREAT IS BEING OVERPLAYED BY THE MODELS AS WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT...WILL CREATE A CAP LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BELIEVE DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR. AT THE VERY LEAST A POP-UP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY GIVE WAY AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE KEPT POPS BELOW
20S AND INCLUDED ISOLATED WORDING.

TOMORROW NIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE JUST AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY PRONE REGIONS AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
 - POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - THREATS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND
 - DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY
 - UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SOME DIFFICULTY IN DISCERNING THE N HEMISPHERIC PATTERN. NAO/AO
PATTERNS ARE NEAR-NEUTRAL WHILE THE MJO IS CONCLUDED AS INCOHERENT
BY CPC. LIKELY COMPLICATIONS WITH W PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
BECOMING USURPED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY THE
LARGE VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLE PNA FORECASTS. BUT NOTABLY THUS FAR
WITHIN THE FIRST-HALF OF JULY...POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
APPARENT OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND NW ATLANTIC. THIS IS RESULTING IN
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN TO BUCKLE WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND E-HALF OF THE CONUS COLLOCATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS
INCREASE AND CYCLONIC-NATURE OF THE H2 JET.

SO WHILE NO CERTAINTY AS HOW THE LONG-TERM PATTERN MAY EVOLVE...
WILL PREVAIL WITH PRESENT BUCKLING PATTERN AND PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE E-HALF OF THE CONUS. COINCIDING WITH THE 6-10/8-14 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS PER CPC...BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
BUT EVALUATING THE NAEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE...ITS ANTICIPATED THAT THE
NE CONUS WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE PREFERRED TROUGH
PATTERN THUS IN PROXIMITY TO CYCLONICALLY DIGGING DISTURBANCES. WITH
ANY WOBBLE IN THE PATTERN...WE COULD FIND OURSELVES ON EITHER THE
WARM OR COOL SIDE OF THE PATTERN. THIS LENDS TO OBVIOUSLY DECREASING
CONFIDENCE FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST.

BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL OUTLINE HIGH POINTS
ALONG WITH CONFIDENCE AND PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT SWEEPS GRADUALLY SE INTO S NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...OVERALL
THERE IS CONSENSUS PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING OF SW TROPICAL FLOW
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT UNDERGOES DEEP-LAYER LIFT PER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET...THE BETTER OF WHICH
APPEARS TO RESIDE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO N NEW ENGLAND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY.

UPON A CONSENSUS...EXPECT THE FRONT INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING
SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WARM-SECTOR LOOKS TO BE CAPPED WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND H7
WARMING TO NEAR +10C.

ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT WHERE
THE GREATEST FORCING RESIDES ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE AND
THE CAP TO BREAK. WITH THE MAINLY NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED IN A REGION OF STRONG SW-NE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
CONVECTIVE THREATS SUCH AS DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THAT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH PWATS EDGING UP TO 2-INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICAL INFLUENCES...THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WILL EMPHASIZE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
INITIALLY FOR W NEW ENGLAND...WITH HEAVY RAIN FOR THE EVENING FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SOME FINAL NOTES...EXPECT LOW STRATUS IMPACTING S/SE COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND AS HIGH THETA-E/DEWPOINT MOISTURE UNDERGOES WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...HOT HUMID AND
STICKY DURING THE DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90-DEGREES CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE FOR
THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN UNDER SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE AGREES UPON THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN
THE DAY INTO EVENING...THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD DRAG ENERGY BACK N/W TOWARDS LOWER
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROUGH. THUS WILL HOLD WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED CONCERN OF
DEEP-LAYER LIFT EXACERBATING POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING. SUCH THREATS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED MAINLY FOR THE
EARLY-HALF OF THE DAY WHERE PWATS UP TO 2-INCHES PREVAIL.

FRIDAY...

TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION ATTENDANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND H85 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND +12C. WILL PREVAIL WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. PERHAPS SOME WEAK
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THROWING OUT THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP WITH THE NAEFS...
GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PROLONGED TROUGHING IS PREFERRED ALONG
WITH BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS TO WHETHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL FLUTTER ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...A SEASONABLE AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED...THE SPECIFICS AND TIMING OF WHICH ARE UNKNOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...LOW CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT TERMINALS ALONG THE
MID AND OUTER CAPE AS WELL AS NANTUCKET. A FEW PATCHES IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR VALLEYS BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL
THAT WIDESPREAD.

TERMINALS IMPROVE VFR INTO TUESDAY AS LOW CIGS AND FOG SLINK OFF
TO THE SE. SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...OTHERWISE
DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT. WHILE MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT
OF MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE S/SE
COASTLINE TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF OVERNIGHT AND THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. NOW THINKING THAT THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG OFFSHORE MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO BOS BEFORE THE WEAK
SURFACE WIND FLOW SHIFTS TO BE MORE FROM THE SW. WOULD NOT BET THE
BANK ON IT AND WILL BE MONITORING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY FOR TRENDS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. SWEEPING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF WHICH TSRA/+RA AND SW WINDS
GUSTING 25 KTS POSSIBLE. TEMPO MVFR-IFR. LOW MVFR-IFR CIGS AND FOG
POSSIBLE FOR IMMEDIATE S/SE COASTLINE TERMINALS. TIMING FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT NW-SE THURSDAY. WINDS
BACK NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE WEAKER.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT N WINDS BACKING W/SW WITH TIME. SEA-BREEZES ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORES DURING THE DAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SCA MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NEAR SHORE AS WINDS MAY REACH 25KTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE
AHEAD INITIALLY ALONG THE S/SE WATERS...FOLLOWED BY LATER THREATS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. GUSTY SW
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL PUSH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. SMALL-CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WAVES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT TO SEA.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX OUT
OF THE N AND LATER BACK SW. ANTICIPATE SEAS TO DIMINISH AND GOOD
BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220552
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
152 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AROUND DAYBREAK ALLOWING
FOR AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THE REGION. LESS HUMID AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY FRIDAY
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PRIOR FORECAST. EVOLUTION OF
THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS REMAINS THE MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT.
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE NOT ADVECTING MUCH FURTHER WEST
THAN THE MID CAPE AND CAPE COD BAY AS SURFACE FLOW IS BEGINNING TO
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO
FORM SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS BUT NOT ALL THAT EXTENSIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND THUS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INCREASING THE
HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM THE RETURN OF NEW ENGLAND SUMMER...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF TOMORROW IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BELIEVE
THIS THREAT IS BEING OVERPLAYED BY THE MODELS AS WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT...WILL CREATE A CAP LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BELIEVE DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR. AT THE VERY LEAST A POP-UP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY GIVE WAY AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE KEPT POPS BELOW
20S AND INCLUDED ISOLATED WORDING.

TOMORROW NIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE JUST AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY PRONE REGIONS AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
 - POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - THREATS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND
 - DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY
 - UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SOME DIFFICULTY IN DISCERNING THE N HEMISPHERIC PATTERN. NAO/AO
PATTERNS ARE NEAR-NEUTRAL WHILE THE MJO IS CONCLUDED AS INCOHERENT
BY CPC. LIKELY COMPLICATIONS WITH W PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
BECOMING USURPED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY THE
LARGE VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLE PNA FORECASTS. BUT NOTABLY THUS FAR
WITHIN THE FIRST-HALF OF JULY...POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
APPARENT OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND NW ATLANTIC. THIS IS RESULTING IN
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN TO BUCKLE WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND E-HALF OF THE CONUS COLLOCATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS
INCREASE AND CYCLONIC-NATURE OF THE H2 JET.

SO WHILE NO CERTAINTY AS HOW THE LONG-TERM PATTERN MAY EVOLVE...
WILL PREVAIL WITH PRESENT BUCKLING PATTERN AND PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE E-HALF OF THE CONUS. COINCIDING WITH THE 6-10/8-14 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS PER CPC...BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
BUT EVALUATING THE NAEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE...ITS ANTICIPATED THAT THE
NE CONUS WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE PREFERRED TROUGH
PATTERN THUS IN PROXIMITY TO CYCLONICALLY DIGGING DISTURBANCES. WITH
ANY WOBBLE IN THE PATTERN...WE COULD FIND OURSELVES ON EITHER THE
WARM OR COOL SIDE OF THE PATTERN. THIS LENDS TO OBVIOUSLY DECREASING
CONFIDENCE FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST.

BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL OUTLINE HIGH POINTS
ALONG WITH CONFIDENCE AND PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT SWEEPS GRADUALLY SE INTO S NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...OVERALL
THERE IS CONSENSUS PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING OF SW TROPICAL FLOW
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT UNDERGOES DEEP-LAYER LIFT PER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET...THE BETTER OF WHICH
APPEARS TO RESIDE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO N NEW ENGLAND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY.

UPON A CONSENSUS...EXPECT THE FRONT INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING
SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WARM-SECTOR LOOKS TO BE CAPPED WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND H7
WARMING TO NEAR +10C.

ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT WHERE
THE GREATEST FORCING RESIDES ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE AND
THE CAP TO BREAK. WITH THE MAINLY NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED IN A REGION OF STRONG SW-NE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
CONVECTIVE THREATS SUCH AS DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THAT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH PWATS EDGING UP TO 2-INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICAL INFLUENCES...THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WILL EMPHASIZE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
INITIALLY FOR W NEW ENGLAND...WITH HEAVY RAIN FOR THE EVENING FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SOME FINAL NOTES...EXPECT LOW STRATUS IMPACTING S/SE COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND AS HIGH THETA-E/DEWPOINT MOISTURE UNDERGOES WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...HOT HUMID AND
STICKY DURING THE DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90-DEGREES CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE FOR
THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN UNDER SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE AGREES UPON THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN
THE DAY INTO EVENING...THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD DRAG ENERGY BACK N/W TOWARDS LOWER
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROUGH. THUS WILL HOLD WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED CONCERN OF
DEEP-LAYER LIFT EXACERBATING POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING. SUCH THREATS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED MAINLY FOR THE
EARLY-HALF OF THE DAY WHERE PWATS UP TO 2-INCHES PREVAIL.

FRIDAY...

TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION ATTENDANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND H85 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND +12C. WILL PREVAIL WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. PERHAPS SOME WEAK
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THROWING OUT THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP WITH THE NAEFS...
GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PROLONGED TROUGHING IS PREFERRED ALONG
WITH BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS TO WHETHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL FLUTTER ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...A SEASONABLE AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED...THE SPECIFICS AND TIMING OF WHICH ARE UNKNOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...LOW CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT TERMINALS ALONG THE
MID AND OUTER CAPE AS WELL AS NANTUCKET. A FEW PATCHES IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR VALLEYS BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL
THAT WIDESPREAD.

TERMINALS IMPROVE VFR INTO TUESDAY AS LOW CIGS AND FOG SLINK OFF
TO THE SE. SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...OTHERWISE
DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT. WHILE MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT
OF MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE S/SE
COASTLINE TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF OVERNIGHT AND THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. NOW THINKING THAT THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG OFFSHORE MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO BOS BEFORE THE WEAK
SURFACE WIND FLOW SHIFTS TO BE MORE FROM THE SW. WOULD NOT BET THE
BANK ON IT AND WILL BE MONITORING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY FOR TRENDS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. SWEEPING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF WHICH TSRA/+RA AND SW WINDS
GUSTING 25 KTS POSSIBLE. TEMPO MVFR-IFR. LOW MVFR-IFR CIGS AND FOG
POSSIBLE FOR IMMEDIATE S/SE COASTLINE TERMINALS. TIMING FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT NW-SE THURSDAY. WINDS
BACK NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE WEAKER.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT N WINDS BACKING W/SW WITH TIME. SEA-BREEZES ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORES DURING THE DAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SCA MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NEAR SHORE AS WINDS MAY REACH 25KTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE
AHEAD INITIALLY ALONG THE S/SE WATERS...FOLLOWED BY LATER THREATS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. GUSTY SW
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL PUSH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. SMALL-CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WAVES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT TO SEA.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX OUT
OF THE N AND LATER BACK SW. ANTICIPATE SEAS TO DIMINISH AND GOOD
BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220552
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
152 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AROUND DAYBREAK ALLOWING
FOR AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THE REGION. LESS HUMID AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY FRIDAY
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PRIOR FORECAST. EVOLUTION OF
THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS REMAINS THE MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT.
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SEEM TO BE NOT ADVECTING MUCH FURTHER WEST
THAN THE MID CAPE AND CAPE COD BAY AS SURFACE FLOW IS BEGINNING TO
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO
FORM SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS BUT NOT ALL THAT EXTENSIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND THUS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INCREASING THE
HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM THE RETURN OF NEW ENGLAND SUMMER...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF TOMORROW IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BELIEVE
THIS THREAT IS BEING OVERPLAYED BY THE MODELS AS WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT...WILL CREATE A CAP LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BELIEVE DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR. AT THE VERY LEAST A POP-UP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY GIVE WAY AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE KEPT POPS BELOW
20S AND INCLUDED ISOLATED WORDING.

TOMORROW NIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE JUST AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY PRONE REGIONS AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
 - POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - THREATS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND
 - DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY
 - UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SOME DIFFICULTY IN DISCERNING THE N HEMISPHERIC PATTERN. NAO/AO
PATTERNS ARE NEAR-NEUTRAL WHILE THE MJO IS CONCLUDED AS INCOHERENT
BY CPC. LIKELY COMPLICATIONS WITH W PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
BECOMING USURPED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY THE
LARGE VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLE PNA FORECASTS. BUT NOTABLY THUS FAR
WITHIN THE FIRST-HALF OF JULY...POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
APPARENT OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND NW ATLANTIC. THIS IS RESULTING IN
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN TO BUCKLE WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND E-HALF OF THE CONUS COLLOCATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS
INCREASE AND CYCLONIC-NATURE OF THE H2 JET.

SO WHILE NO CERTAINTY AS HOW THE LONG-TERM PATTERN MAY EVOLVE...
WILL PREVAIL WITH PRESENT BUCKLING PATTERN AND PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE E-HALF OF THE CONUS. COINCIDING WITH THE 6-10/8-14 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS PER CPC...BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
BUT EVALUATING THE NAEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE...ITS ANTICIPATED THAT THE
NE CONUS WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE PREFERRED TROUGH
PATTERN THUS IN PROXIMITY TO CYCLONICALLY DIGGING DISTURBANCES. WITH
ANY WOBBLE IN THE PATTERN...WE COULD FIND OURSELVES ON EITHER THE
WARM OR COOL SIDE OF THE PATTERN. THIS LENDS TO OBVIOUSLY DECREASING
CONFIDENCE FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST.

BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL OUTLINE HIGH POINTS
ALONG WITH CONFIDENCE AND PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT SWEEPS GRADUALLY SE INTO S NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...OVERALL
THERE IS CONSENSUS PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING OF SW TROPICAL FLOW
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT UNDERGOES DEEP-LAYER LIFT PER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET...THE BETTER OF WHICH
APPEARS TO RESIDE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO N NEW ENGLAND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY.

UPON A CONSENSUS...EXPECT THE FRONT INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING
SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WARM-SECTOR LOOKS TO BE CAPPED WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND H7
WARMING TO NEAR +10C.

ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT WHERE
THE GREATEST FORCING RESIDES ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE AND
THE CAP TO BREAK. WITH THE MAINLY NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED IN A REGION OF STRONG SW-NE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
CONVECTIVE THREATS SUCH AS DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THAT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH PWATS EDGING UP TO 2-INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICAL INFLUENCES...THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WILL EMPHASIZE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
INITIALLY FOR W NEW ENGLAND...WITH HEAVY RAIN FOR THE EVENING FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SOME FINAL NOTES...EXPECT LOW STRATUS IMPACTING S/SE COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND AS HIGH THETA-E/DEWPOINT MOISTURE UNDERGOES WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...HOT HUMID AND
STICKY DURING THE DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90-DEGREES CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE FOR
THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN UNDER SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE AGREES UPON THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN
THE DAY INTO EVENING...THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD DRAG ENERGY BACK N/W TOWARDS LOWER
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROUGH. THUS WILL HOLD WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED CONCERN OF
DEEP-LAYER LIFT EXACERBATING POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING. SUCH THREATS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED MAINLY FOR THE
EARLY-HALF OF THE DAY WHERE PWATS UP TO 2-INCHES PREVAIL.

FRIDAY...

TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION ATTENDANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND H85 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND +12C. WILL PREVAIL WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. PERHAPS SOME WEAK
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THROWING OUT THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP WITH THE NAEFS...
GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PROLONGED TROUGHING IS PREFERRED ALONG
WITH BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS TO WHETHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL FLUTTER ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...A SEASONABLE AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED...THE SPECIFICS AND TIMING OF WHICH ARE UNKNOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...LOW CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT TERMINALS ALONG THE
MID AND OUTER CAPE AS WELL AS NANTUCKET. A FEW PATCHES IFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR VALLEYS BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL
THAT WIDESPREAD.

TERMINALS IMPROVE VFR INTO TUESDAY AS LOW CIGS AND FOG SLINK OFF
TO THE SE. SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...OTHERWISE
DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT. WHILE MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT
OF MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE S/SE
COASTLINE TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF OVERNIGHT AND THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. NOW THINKING THAT THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG OFFSHORE MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO BOS BEFORE THE WEAK
SURFACE WIND FLOW SHIFTS TO BE MORE FROM THE SW. WOULD NOT BET THE
BANK ON IT AND WILL BE MONITORING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY FOR TRENDS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. SWEEPING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF WHICH TSRA/+RA AND SW WINDS
GUSTING 25 KTS POSSIBLE. TEMPO MVFR-IFR. LOW MVFR-IFR CIGS AND FOG
POSSIBLE FOR IMMEDIATE S/SE COASTLINE TERMINALS. TIMING FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT NW-SE THURSDAY. WINDS
BACK NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE WEAKER.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT N WINDS BACKING W/SW WITH TIME. SEA-BREEZES ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORES DURING THE DAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SCA MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NEAR SHORE AS WINDS MAY REACH 25KTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE
AHEAD INITIALLY ALONG THE S/SE WATERS...FOLLOWED BY LATER THREATS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. GUSTY SW
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL PUSH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. SMALL-CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WAVES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT TO SEA.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX OUT
OF THE N AND LATER BACK SW. ANTICIPATE SEAS TO DIMINISH AND GOOD
BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 220544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED. SO IT SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN RECENT NIGHTS...SOME IFR RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP
AT KGFL/KPSF.  THIS FOG WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH OF A T/TD
SPREAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT
DIURNAL CU. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 220544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED. SO IT SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN RECENT NIGHTS...SOME IFR RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP
AT KGFL/KPSF.  THIS FOG WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH OF A T/TD
SPREAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT
DIURNAL CU. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 220544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED. SO IT SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN RECENT NIGHTS...SOME IFR RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP
AT KGFL/KPSF.  THIS FOG WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH OF A T/TD
SPREAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT
DIURNAL CU. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 220544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED. SO IT SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN RECENT NIGHTS...SOME IFR RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP
AT KGFL/KPSF.  THIS FOG WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH OF A T/TD
SPREAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT
DIURNAL CU. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 220250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1050 PM...THERE REMAINS JUST TWO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THERE. OTHERWISE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED
AS EXPECTED. BY MIDNIGHT...IT SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DARK...BUT THESE
SHOWERS ARE NOT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF
TERMINALS ANYWAY. TONIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG FORMATION AT KGFL/KPSF THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO
EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS. SO WILL
MENTION MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS STARTING LATE THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT KALB/KPOU WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 11Z-12Z TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. JUST A FEW CU IN VFR RANGE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ONLY ABOUT
A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A POP UP SHRA/TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO COVERAGE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND 6-7 KT ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 220250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1050 PM...THERE REMAINS JUST TWO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THERE. OTHERWISE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED
AS EXPECTED. BY MIDNIGHT...IT SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DARK...BUT THESE
SHOWERS ARE NOT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF
TERMINALS ANYWAY. TONIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG FORMATION AT KGFL/KPSF THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO
EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS. SO WILL
MENTION MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS STARTING LATE THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT KALB/KPOU WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 11Z-12Z TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. JUST A FEW CU IN VFR RANGE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ONLY ABOUT
A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A POP UP SHRA/TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO COVERAGE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND 6-7 KT ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KBOX 220222
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1022 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE
REGION. LESS HUMID AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY FRIDAY LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL...PRIOR FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK. GREATEST NEAR
TERM ISSUE IS HANDLING OF STRATUS AND FOG...WHICH HAS ADVECTED
SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS. PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS
MASS BAY AS WELL. THINKING THAT THE VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW THE FOG AND STRATUS TO DRIFT FURTHER TO THE W AND NW AND
AFFECT MOST OF THE MA IMMEDIATE SHORELINE. A TENDENCY FOR THE WIND
TO SHIFT TO A SW DIRECTION MAY HELP ADVECT THE FOG OFFSHORE ALONG
THE MA E COAST BUT BRING THE STRATUS/FOG ONTO THE THE BUZZARDS BAY
AND RI S COAST. MEANWHILE...MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS
TO LIMIT FOG ACROSS CT RIVER VALLEY SOMEWHAT BUT PROBABLY NOT
ENTIRELY. CONFIDENCE IN ALL OF THIS IS RELATIVELY LOW. ONLY VERY
MINOR TWEAKING OF TEMPS AND DEWPOINT NECESSAY.


7 PM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE TO SWIRL ABOUT THE WATERS ADJACENT TO
CAPE COD. DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT BASED ON THE VISIBILITY AND
CLOUD TRENDS PER THE HRRR...AND H975-950 WIND AND RH FIELDS PER
THE RAP...PRESENT NE-FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER E/SE BEFORE SHIFTING
OUT OF THE W/SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOTING LOW-60 DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO
INCREASE WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE...EXPECT THE OFFSHORE LOW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE TO PIVOT
AND ADVECT BACK ONSHORE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE. HAVE AMENDED SKY
AND VISIBILITY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY WITH THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG.
HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS TO WHETHER HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. AT
PRESENT...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF NANTUCKET BECOMING SOCKED IN
OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS E OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR RETURN S-FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE. MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS INTERIOR SHELTERED LOCALES ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. MAY
BE HAMPERED BY MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS DISCERNIBLE VIA IR
SATELLITE OVER UPSTATE-NY. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE A MENTION OF FOG
FOR THE MID- TO UPPER-CT VALLEY REGION.

LOWS DOWN TO THE LOW-60S...LIKELY LOWER FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH
REMAIN CLEAR AND CAN EFFECTIVELY RADIATE OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND THUS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INCREASING THE
HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM THE RETURN OF NEW ENGLAND SUMMER...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF TOMORROW IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BELIEVE
THIS THREAT IS BEING OVERPLAYED BY THE MODELS AS WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT...WILL CREATE A CAP LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BELIEVE DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR. AT THE VERY LEAST A POP-UP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY GIVE WAY AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE KEPT POPS BELOW
20S AND INCLUDED ISOLATED WORDING.

TOMORROW NIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE JUST AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY PRONE REGIONS AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
 - POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - THREATS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND
 - DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY
 - UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SOME DIFFICULTY IN DISCERNING THE N HEMISPHERIC PATTERN. NAO/AO
PATTERNS ARE NEAR-NEUTRAL WHILE THE MJO IS CONCLUDED AS INCOHERENT
BY CPC. LIKELY COMPLICATIONS WITH W PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
BECOMING USURPED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY THE
LARGE VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLE PNA FORECASTS. BUT NOTABLY THUS FAR
WITHIN THE FIRST-HALF OF JULY...POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
APPARENT OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND NW ATLANTIC. THIS IS RESULTING IN
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN TO BUCKLE WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND E-HALF OF THE CONUS COLLOCATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS
INCREASE AND CYCLONIC-NATURE OF THE H2 JET.

SO WHILE NO CERTAINTY AS HOW THE LONG-TERM PATTERN MAY EVOLVE...
WILL PREVAIL WITH PRESENT BUCKLING PATTERN AND PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE E-HALF OF THE CONUS. COINCIDING WITH THE 6-10/8-14 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS PER CPC...BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
BUT EVALUATING THE NAEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE...ITS ANTICIPATED THAT THE
NE CONUS WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE PREFERRED TROUGH
PATTERN THUS IN PROXIMITY TO CYCLONICALLY DIGGING DISTURBANCES. WITH
ANY WOBBLE IN THE PATTERN...WE COULD FIND OURSELVES ON EITHER THE
WARM OR COOL SIDE OF THE PATTERN. THIS LENDS TO OBVIOUSLY DECREASING
CONFIDENCE FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST.

BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL OUTLINE HIGH POINTS
ALONG WITH CONFIDENCE AND PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT SWEEPS GRADUALLY SE INTO S NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...OVERALL
THERE IS CONSENSUS PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING OF SW TROPICAL FLOW
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT UNDERGOES DEEP-LAYER LIFT PER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET...THE BETTER OF WHICH
APPEARS TO RESIDE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO N NEW ENGLAND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY.

UPON A CONSENSUS...EXPECT THE FRONT INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING
SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WARM-SECTOR LOOKS TO BE CAPPED WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND H7
WARMING TO NEAR +10C.

ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT WHERE
THE GREATEST FORCING RESIDES ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE AND
THE CAP TO BREAK. WITH THE MAINLY NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED IN A REGION OF STRONG SW-NE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
CONVECTIVE THREATS SUCH AS DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THAT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH PWATS EDGING UP TO 2-INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICAL INFLUENCES...THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WILL EMPHASIZE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
INITIALLY FOR W NEW ENGLAND...WITH HEAVY RAIN FOR THE EVENING FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SOME FINAL NOTES...EXPECT LOW STRATUS IMPACTING S/SE COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND AS HIGH THETA-E/DEWPOINT MOISTURE UNDERGOES WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...HOT HUMID AND
STICKY DURING THE DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90-DEGREES CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE FOR
THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN UNDER SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE AGREES UPON THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN
THE DAY INTO EVENING...THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD DRAG ENERGY BACK N/W TOWARDS LOWER
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROUGH. THUS WILL HOLD WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED CONCERN OF
DEEP-LAYER LIFT EXACERBATING POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING. SUCH THREATS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED MAINLY FOR THE
EARLY-HALF OF THE DAY WHERE PWATS UP TO 2-INCHES PREVAIL.

FRIDAY...

TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION ATTENDANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND H85 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND +12C. WILL PREVAIL WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. PERHAPS SOME WEAK
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THROWING OUT THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP WITH THE NAEFS...
GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PROLONGED TROUGHING IS PREFERRED ALONG
WITH BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS TO WHETHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL FLUTTER ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...A SEASONABLE AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED...THE SPECIFICS AND TIMING OF WHICH ARE UNKNOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...LOW CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL TERMINALS DUE TO
GRADUAL VEERING OF WIND FROM E TO SE AND ULTIMATELY S...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/EXTENT LOW. FOG/STRATUS HAD MOVED ONTO OUTER
CAPE AND NANTUCKET BY 02Z. E TO SE WIND USUALLY DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR MA E COAST INCLUDING BOS...BUT SHIFT TO A MORE S TO SW FLOW
TOWARD DAYBREAK MAY IMPROVE CONDITIONS ALONG MA E COAST BUT CAUSE
SOME DETERIORATION ALONG BOTH MA AND RI S COAST. MORE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS.

TERMINALS IMPROVE VFR INTO TUESDAY AS LOW CIGS AND FOG SLINK OFF
TO THE SE. SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...OTHERWISE
DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT. WHILE MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT
OF MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE S/SE
COASTLINE TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF OVERNIGHT AND THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. HAVE PLACED SEVERAL HOURS OF SOME
STRATUS AND FOG INTO TAF DUE SATELLITE TRENDS AND CLIMATOLOGY WITH
A LIGHT E TO SE WIND AT NIGHT. THINK CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BY 09Z
AND A VERY LIGHT SW GRADIENT DEVELOPS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. SWEEPING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF WHICH TSRA/+RA AND SW WINDS
GUSTING 25 KTS POSSIBLE. TEMPO MVFR-IFR. LOW MVFR-IFR CIGS AND FOG
POSSIBLE FOR IMMEDIATE S/SE COASTLINE TERMINALS. TIMING FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT NW-SE THURSDAY. WINDS
BACK NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE WEAKER.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT N WINDS BACKING W/SW WITH TIME. SEA-BREEZES ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORES DURING THE DAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SCA MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NEAR SHORE AS WINDS MAY REACH 25KTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE
AHEAD INITIALLY ALONG THE S/SE WATERS...FOLLOWED BY LATER THREATS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. GUSTY SW
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL PUSH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. SMALL-CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WAVES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT TO SEA.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX OUT
OF THE N AND LATER BACK SW. ANTICIPATE SEAS TO DIMINISH AND GOOD
BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220222
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1022 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE
REGION. LESS HUMID AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY FRIDAY LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL...PRIOR FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK. GREATEST NEAR
TERM ISSUE IS HANDLING OF STRATUS AND FOG...WHICH HAS ADVECTED
SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS. PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS
MASS BAY AS WELL. THINKING THAT THE VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW THE FOG AND STRATUS TO DRIFT FURTHER TO THE W AND NW AND
AFFECT MOST OF THE MA IMMEDIATE SHORELINE. A TENDENCY FOR THE WIND
TO SHIFT TO A SW DIRECTION MAY HELP ADVECT THE FOG OFFSHORE ALONG
THE MA E COAST BUT BRING THE STRATUS/FOG ONTO THE THE BUZZARDS BAY
AND RI S COAST. MEANWHILE...MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS
TO LIMIT FOG ACROSS CT RIVER VALLEY SOMEWHAT BUT PROBABLY NOT
ENTIRELY. CONFIDENCE IN ALL OF THIS IS RELATIVELY LOW. ONLY VERY
MINOR TWEAKING OF TEMPS AND DEWPOINT NECESSAY.


7 PM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE TO SWIRL ABOUT THE WATERS ADJACENT TO
CAPE COD. DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT BASED ON THE VISIBILITY AND
CLOUD TRENDS PER THE HRRR...AND H975-950 WIND AND RH FIELDS PER
THE RAP...PRESENT NE-FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER E/SE BEFORE SHIFTING
OUT OF THE W/SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOTING LOW-60 DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO
INCREASE WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS...AS WELL AS THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE...EXPECT THE OFFSHORE LOW CLOUDS PER SATELLITE TO PIVOT
AND ADVECT BACK ONSHORE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE. HAVE AMENDED SKY
AND VISIBILITY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY WITH THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG.
HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS TO WHETHER HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. AT
PRESENT...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF NANTUCKET BECOMING SOCKED IN
OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS E OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR RETURN S-FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE. MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS INTERIOR SHELTERED LOCALES ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. MAY
BE HAMPERED BY MID-LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS DISCERNIBLE VIA IR
SATELLITE OVER UPSTATE-NY. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE A MENTION OF FOG
FOR THE MID- TO UPPER-CT VALLEY REGION.

LOWS DOWN TO THE LOW-60S...LIKELY LOWER FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH
REMAIN CLEAR AND CAN EFFECTIVELY RADIATE OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND THUS A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INCREASING THE
HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM THE RETURN OF NEW ENGLAND SUMMER...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF TOMORROW IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BELIEVE
THIS THREAT IS BEING OVERPLAYED BY THE MODELS AS WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING TEMPS ALOFT...WILL CREATE A CAP LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BELIEVE DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR. AT THE VERY LEAST A POP-UP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY GIVE WAY AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE KEPT POPS BELOW
20S AND INCLUDED ISOLATED WORDING.

TOMORROW NIGHT...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE JUST AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY PRONE REGIONS AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - HOT AND HUMID WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
 - POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - THREATS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND
 - DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY
 - UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

SOME DIFFICULTY IN DISCERNING THE N HEMISPHERIC PATTERN. NAO/AO
PATTERNS ARE NEAR-NEUTRAL WHILE THE MJO IS CONCLUDED AS INCOHERENT
BY CPC. LIKELY COMPLICATIONS WITH W PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
BECOMING USURPED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS EVIDENCED BY THE
LARGE VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLE PNA FORECASTS. BUT NOTABLY THUS FAR
WITHIN THE FIRST-HALF OF JULY...POSITIVE H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
APPARENT OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND NW ATLANTIC. THIS IS RESULTING IN
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN TO BUCKLE WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND E-HALF OF THE CONUS COLLOCATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS
INCREASE AND CYCLONIC-NATURE OF THE H2 JET.

SO WHILE NO CERTAINTY AS HOW THE LONG-TERM PATTERN MAY EVOLVE...
WILL PREVAIL WITH PRESENT BUCKLING PATTERN AND PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE E-HALF OF THE CONUS. COINCIDING WITH THE 6-10/8-14 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS PER CPC...BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
BUT EVALUATING THE NAEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE...ITS ANTICIPATED THAT THE
NE CONUS WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE PREFERRED TROUGH
PATTERN THUS IN PROXIMITY TO CYCLONICALLY DIGGING DISTURBANCES. WITH
ANY WOBBLE IN THE PATTERN...WE COULD FIND OURSELVES ON EITHER THE
WARM OR COOL SIDE OF THE PATTERN. THIS LENDS TO OBVIOUSLY DECREASING
CONFIDENCE FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST.

BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL OUTLINE HIGH POINTS
ALONG WITH CONFIDENCE AND PREFERRED GUIDANCE IN THE DAILIES BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT SWEEPS GRADUALLY SE INTO S NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...OVERALL
THERE IS CONSENSUS PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING OF SW TROPICAL FLOW
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT UNDERGOES DEEP-LAYER LIFT PER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET...THE BETTER OF WHICH
APPEARS TO RESIDE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO N NEW ENGLAND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY.

UPON A CONSENSUS...EXPECT THE FRONT INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING
SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND JUST OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WARM-SECTOR LOOKS TO BE CAPPED WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND H7
WARMING TO NEAR +10C.

ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT WHERE
THE GREATEST FORCING RESIDES ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE AND
THE CAP TO BREAK. WITH THE MAINLY NOCTURNAL PASSAGE...INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED IN A REGION OF STRONG SW-NE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
CONVECTIVE THREATS SUCH AS DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THAT BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT.

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH PWATS EDGING UP TO 2-INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICAL INFLUENCES...THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WILL EMPHASIZE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
INITIALLY FOR W NEW ENGLAND...WITH HEAVY RAIN FOR THE EVENING FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SOME FINAL NOTES...EXPECT LOW STRATUS IMPACTING S/SE COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND AS HIGH THETA-E/DEWPOINT MOISTURE UNDERGOES WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL PRIOR TO THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...HOT HUMID AND
STICKY DURING THE DAY. HIGHS NEAR 90-DEGREES CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE FOR
THOSE AREAS THAT REMAIN UNDER SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY...

ALL GUIDANCE AGREES UPON THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE IN
THE DAY INTO EVENING...THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT COULD DRAG ENERGY BACK N/W TOWARDS LOWER
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROUGH. THUS WILL HOLD WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FOR S/E NEW ENGLAND. CONTINUED CONCERN OF
DEEP-LAYER LIFT EXACERBATING POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING. SUCH THREATS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED MAINLY FOR THE
EARLY-HALF OF THE DAY WHERE PWATS UP TO 2-INCHES PREVAIL.

FRIDAY...

TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION ATTENDANT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND H85 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND +12C. WILL PREVAIL WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. PERHAPS SOME WEAK
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES.

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THROWING OUT THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP WITH THE NAEFS...
GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PROLONGED TROUGHING IS PREFERRED ALONG
WITH BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS TO WHETHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL FLUTTER ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...A SEASONABLE AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED...THE SPECIFICS AND TIMING OF WHICH ARE UNKNOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...LOW CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST COASTAL TERMINALS DUE TO
GRADUAL VEERING OF WIND FROM E TO SE AND ULTIMATELY S...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/EXTENT LOW. FOG/STRATUS HAD MOVED ONTO OUTER
CAPE AND NANTUCKET BY 02Z. E TO SE WIND USUALLY DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR MA E COAST INCLUDING BOS...BUT SHIFT TO A MORE S TO SW FLOW
TOWARD DAYBREAK MAY IMPROVE CONDITIONS ALONG MA E COAST BUT CAUSE
SOME DETERIORATION ALONG BOTH MA AND RI S COAST. MORE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS.

TERMINALS IMPROVE VFR INTO TUESDAY AS LOW CIGS AND FOG SLINK OFF
TO THE SE. SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...OTHERWISE
DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT. WHILE MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT
OF MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE S/SE
COASTLINE TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF OVERNIGHT AND THEN
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. HAVE PLACED SEVERAL HOURS OF SOME
STRATUS AND FOG INTO TAF DUE SATELLITE TRENDS AND CLIMATOLOGY WITH
A LIGHT E TO SE WIND AT NIGHT. THINK CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BY 09Z
AND A VERY LIGHT SW GRADIENT DEVELOPS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. SWEEPING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF WHICH TSRA/+RA AND SW WINDS
GUSTING 25 KTS POSSIBLE. TEMPO MVFR-IFR. LOW MVFR-IFR CIGS AND FOG
POSSIBLE FOR IMMEDIATE S/SE COASTLINE TERMINALS. TIMING FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENT NW-SE THURSDAY. WINDS
BACK NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE WEAKER.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT N WINDS BACKING W/SW WITH TIME. SEA-BREEZES ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORES DURING THE DAY POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SCA MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NEAR SHORE AS WINDS MAY REACH 25KTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT ONLY HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE OR IF...IT WILL FORM.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE
AHEAD INITIALLY ALONG THE S/SE WATERS...FOLLOWED BY LATER THREATS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. GUSTY SW
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL PUSH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. SMALL-CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WAVES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY LATE
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT TO SEA.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX OUT
OF THE N AND LATER BACK SW. ANTICIPATE SEAS TO DIMINISH AND GOOD
BOATING WEATHER TO PREVAIL NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL



    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities