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000
FXUS61 KBOX 050805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN A BAND OF HIGHER THETA-E/LOWER STATIC
STABILITY TO THE S OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR THE S COAST THIS MORNING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE BOX/OKX COASTAL WATERS DUE TO SLIGHT TURNING TOWARD
THE LOWER STABILITY FURTHER S. EVEN THE CI/ANVIL REMAINS OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH YET A FINAL STRONG SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS
WITHIN A REGIME WHERE H5 HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL AND H5 TEMPS DROP BETWEEN -13C AND -15C. DRIER AIR
DOES CONTINUE TO INVADE THE COLUMN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...SO
THIS LIMITS THE LAPSE RATES IN SPITE OF THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
STILL...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SOME MODEST CONVECTIVE SHRA/T-STORMS. THE COLD TEMPS
SUGGEST RISK FOR SMALL HAIL...BUT THE DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC COULD
SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED THIS
WORDING TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. HIGHEST RISK WILL BE
N...WHERE COLDEST TEMPS AND OVERALL MOISTURE RESIDES...HENCE THE
MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...FOCUS IS N OF
THE MASS PIKE...BUT RISK IS NON-ZERO EVERYWHERE. WITH THE DRY
AIR...NOT EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BE AS STRONG OR WIDESPREAD AS
TUESDAY...BUT STILL WORTH WATCHING THE SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAIN WARM TODAY AS THE COLDEST AIR IN THE LOW
LVLS STILL LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SUSPECT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET...AS IT WILL REQUIRE THE SFC WARMING TO MAINTAIN. SUSPECT
AN END BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND SFC PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT...TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL INTO THE 50S BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CERTAINLY MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS.

THU...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. IN SPITE OF
LAST BIT OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT...SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS BEST LIFT/MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO THE N. H85 TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUGGESTS HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE LOW
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR AND DRY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAINLY CAPE/ISLANDS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. W WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT
TIMES.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...LOW CONFIDENCE IN A
SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
W WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY RECEDING THROUGH THE MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING ALONG S WATERS...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE GONE BY MID DAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR COASTLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES BRINGS MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-
     237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 050805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN A BAND OF HIGHER THETA-E/LOWER STATIC
STABILITY TO THE S OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR THE S COAST THIS MORNING. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE BOX/OKX COASTAL WATERS DUE TO SLIGHT TURNING TOWARD
THE LOWER STABILITY FURTHER S. EVEN THE CI/ANVIL REMAINS OFFSHORE.

OTHERWISE...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH YET A FINAL STRONG SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS
WITHIN A REGIME WHERE H5 HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL AND H5 TEMPS DROP BETWEEN -13C AND -15C. DRIER AIR
DOES CONTINUE TO INVADE THE COLUMN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...SO
THIS LIMITS THE LAPSE RATES IN SPITE OF THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
STILL...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SOME MODEST CONVECTIVE SHRA/T-STORMS. THE COLD TEMPS
SUGGEST RISK FOR SMALL HAIL...BUT THE DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC COULD
SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED THIS
WORDING TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. HIGHEST RISK WILL BE
N...WHERE COLDEST TEMPS AND OVERALL MOISTURE RESIDES...HENCE THE
MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...FOCUS IS N OF
THE MASS PIKE...BUT RISK IS NON-ZERO EVERYWHERE. WITH THE DRY
AIR...NOT EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BE AS STRONG OR WIDESPREAD AS
TUESDAY...BUT STILL WORTH WATCHING THE SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAIN WARM TODAY AS THE COLDEST AIR IN THE LOW
LVLS STILL LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SUSPECT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET...AS IT WILL REQUIRE THE SFC WARMING TO MAINTAIN. SUSPECT
AN END BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND SFC PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT...TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO COOL INTO THE 50S BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CERTAINLY MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS.

THU...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. IN SPITE OF
LAST BIT OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT...SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS BEST LIFT/MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO THE N. H85 TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUGGESTS HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE LOW
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR AND DRY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAINLY CAPE/ISLANDS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. W WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT
TIMES.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...LOW CONFIDENCE IN A
SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
W WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY RECEDING THROUGH THE MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING ALONG S WATERS...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE GONE BY MID DAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR COASTLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES BRINGS MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER TO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-
     237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



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000
FXUS61 KALY 050549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1051 PM EDT...AFTER INITIALLY DIMINISHING...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT AND OUR REGION BEING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT A
ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE CAPITAL REGION. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL START OFF THE
EVENING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE PIECES
OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY...NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE/INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE
VALLEYS. AS FOR OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROPPING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK
TO JUST BELOW 10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL
WITH MAINLY 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW WITH THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF KGFL. THE BEST CHC OF IFR MIST/FOG WILL
BE AT KPSF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS AFTER THE
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 08-12Z THERE.
EXPECT SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING...THEN SOME CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SCT-BKN AT 5 KFT AGL. A
VCSH GROUP WAS USED FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF. THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO BURN OFF QUICKLY TOWARDS
00Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SW TO W AT 8-13 KTS TOWARDS NOONTIME WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR LESS
TOWARDS 00Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/IRL/BGM
NEAR TERM...IRL/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 050549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1051 PM EDT...AFTER INITIALLY DIMINISHING...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT AND OUR REGION BEING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT A
ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE CAPITAL REGION. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL START OFF THE
EVENING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE PIECES
OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY...NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE/INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE
VALLEYS. AS FOR OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROPPING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK
TO JUST BELOW 10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL
WITH MAINLY 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW WITH THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF KGFL. THE BEST CHC OF IFR MIST/FOG WILL
BE AT KPSF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS AFTER THE
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 08-12Z THERE.
EXPECT SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING...THEN SOME CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SCT-BKN AT 5 KFT AGL. A
VCSH GROUP WAS USED FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF. THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO BURN OFF QUICKLY TOWARDS
00Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SW TO W AT 8-13 KTS TOWARDS NOONTIME WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR LESS
TOWARDS 00Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/IRL/BGM
NEAR TERM...IRL/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 050549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1051 PM EDT...AFTER INITIALLY DIMINISHING...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT AND OUR REGION BEING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT A
ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE CAPITAL REGION. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL START OFF THE
EVENING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE PIECES
OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY...NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE/INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE
VALLEYS. AS FOR OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROPPING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK
TO JUST BELOW 10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL
WITH MAINLY 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW WITH THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF KGFL. THE BEST CHC OF IFR MIST/FOG WILL
BE AT KPSF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS AFTER THE
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 08-12Z THERE.
EXPECT SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING...THEN SOME CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SCT-BKN AT 5 KFT AGL. A
VCSH GROUP WAS USED FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF. THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO BURN OFF QUICKLY TOWARDS
00Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SW TO W AT 8-13 KTS TOWARDS NOONTIME WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR LESS
TOWARDS 00Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/IRL/BGM
NEAR TERM...IRL/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 050549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1051 PM EDT...AFTER INITIALLY DIMINISHING...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT AND OUR REGION BEING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT A
ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE CAPITAL REGION. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL START OFF THE
EVENING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE PIECES
OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY...NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE/INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE
VALLEYS. AS FOR OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROPPING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK
TO JUST BELOW 10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL
WITH MAINLY 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW WITH THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF KGFL. THE BEST CHC OF IFR MIST/FOG WILL
BE AT KPSF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS AFTER THE
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 08-12Z THERE.
EXPECT SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING...THEN SOME CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SCT-BKN AT 5 KFT AGL. A
VCSH GROUP WAS USED FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF. THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO BURN OFF QUICKLY TOWARDS
00Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SW TO W AT 8-13 KTS TOWARDS NOONTIME WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR LESS
TOWARDS 00Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/IRL/BGM
NEAR TERM...IRL/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 050549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1051 PM EDT...AFTER INITIALLY DIMINISHING...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT AND OUR REGION BEING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT A
ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE CAPITAL REGION. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL START OFF THE
EVENING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE PIECES
OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY...NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE/INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE
VALLEYS. AS FOR OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROPPING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK
TO JUST BELOW 10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL
WITH MAINLY 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW WITH THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF KGFL. THE BEST CHC OF IFR MIST/FOG WILL
BE AT KPSF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS AFTER THE
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 08-12Z THERE.
EXPECT SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING...THEN SOME CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SCT-BKN AT 5 KFT AGL. A
VCSH GROUP WAS USED FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF. THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO BURN OFF QUICKLY TOWARDS
00Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SW TO W AT 8-13 KTS TOWARDS NOONTIME WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR LESS
TOWARDS 00Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/IRL/BGM
NEAR TERM...IRL/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KBOX 050539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MODEST SFC BASED CAPE
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WEAK CELLS CONTINUE TO POP
IN A WEAK CONVERGENT REGION STRETCHED FROM NRN CT INTO E MA AND
OFFSHORE. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT THESE LAST FEW STORMS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK...SO THE FORECAST DRYING TREND PROMOTED
BY PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENED CONVECTION
ACROSS NRN NY STATE AND WILL NEED TO WATCH S OF THE REGION WHERE
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDE. STILL THINK
MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS QUIET HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ROBUST FORCING OF AN ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY
DRIER BUT COOLER ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT. WHILE LESSER
INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER. THE MID-LEVEL
ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN UPON A BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BECOME WELL-MIXED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS...STORMS IN WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PERHAPS EVEN A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE WEATHER WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT. CERTAIN THOUGH THERE IS A THREAT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COAST. A TAD COOLER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW
80S. SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR AND DRY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAINLY CAPE/ISLANDS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. W WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT
TIMES.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...LOW CONFIDENCE IN A
SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-
     237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 050539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MODEST SFC BASED CAPE
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WEAK CELLS CONTINUE TO POP
IN A WEAK CONVERGENT REGION STRETCHED FROM NRN CT INTO E MA AND
OFFSHORE. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT THESE LAST FEW STORMS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK...SO THE FORECAST DRYING TREND PROMOTED
BY PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENED CONVECTION
ACROSS NRN NY STATE AND WILL NEED TO WATCH S OF THE REGION WHERE
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDE. STILL THINK
MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS QUIET HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ROBUST FORCING OF AN ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY
DRIER BUT COOLER ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT. WHILE LESSER
INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER. THE MID-LEVEL
ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN UPON A BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BECOME WELL-MIXED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS...STORMS IN WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PERHAPS EVEN A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE WEATHER WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT. CERTAIN THOUGH THERE IS A THREAT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COAST. A TAD COOLER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW
80S. SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR AND DRY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAINLY CAPE/ISLANDS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. W WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT
TIMES.

TONIGHT INTO THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...LOW CONFIDENCE IN A
SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-
     237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 050252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1052 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1051 PM EDT...AFTER INITIALLY DIMINISHING...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT AND OUR REGION BEING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT A
ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE CAPITAL REGION. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL START OFF THE
EVENING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE PIECES
OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY...NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE/INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE
VALLEYS. AS FOR OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROPPING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK
TO JUST BELOW 10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL
WITH MAINLY 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A
SMALL BATCH OF SHRA WEST OF KALB SO WILL MENTION A VCSH FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THERE. OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN NY MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD TO KGFL. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK
THOUGH...SO AGAIN WILL MENTION JUST VCSH FOR NOW.

SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KPSF OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR
AND WINDS DECREASE. RAINFALL FROM EARLIER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOIST
GROUND CONDITIONS WHICH WILL AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITION HAVE BEEN FORECAST STARTING AROUND 04Z-06Z.
ELSEWHERE FOG FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT FOR SOME BR AND
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY AT KGFL.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL PARKED OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY..SOME WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AFTER
DARK...THEN BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 9-12 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/IRL/BGM
NEAR TERM...IRL/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 050252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1052 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1051 PM EDT...AFTER INITIALLY DIMINISHING...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT AND OUR REGION BEING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT A
ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE CAPITAL REGION. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL START OFF THE
EVENING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE PIECES
OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY...NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE/INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE
VALLEYS. AS FOR OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROPPING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK
TO JUST BELOW 10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL
WITH MAINLY 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A
SMALL BATCH OF SHRA WEST OF KALB SO WILL MENTION A VCSH FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THERE. OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN NY MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD TO KGFL. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK
THOUGH...SO AGAIN WILL MENTION JUST VCSH FOR NOW.

SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KPSF OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR
AND WINDS DECREASE. RAINFALL FROM EARLIER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOIST
GROUND CONDITIONS WHICH WILL AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITION HAVE BEEN FORECAST STARTING AROUND 04Z-06Z.
ELSEWHERE FOG FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT FOR SOME BR AND
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY AT KGFL.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL PARKED OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY..SOME WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AFTER
DARK...THEN BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 9-12 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/IRL/BGM
NEAR TERM...IRL/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 050252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1052 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1051 PM EDT...AFTER INITIALLY DIMINISHING...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT AND OUR REGION BEING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT A
ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE CAPITAL REGION. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL START OFF THE
EVENING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE PIECES
OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY...NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE/INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE
VALLEYS. AS FOR OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROPPING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK
TO JUST BELOW 10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL
WITH MAINLY 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A
SMALL BATCH OF SHRA WEST OF KALB SO WILL MENTION A VCSH FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THERE. OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN NY MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD TO KGFL. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK
THOUGH...SO AGAIN WILL MENTION JUST VCSH FOR NOW.

SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KPSF OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR
AND WINDS DECREASE. RAINFALL FROM EARLIER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOIST
GROUND CONDITIONS WHICH WILL AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITION HAVE BEEN FORECAST STARTING AROUND 04Z-06Z.
ELSEWHERE FOG FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT FOR SOME BR AND
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY AT KGFL.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL PARKED OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY..SOME WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AFTER
DARK...THEN BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 9-12 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/IRL/BGM
NEAR TERM...IRL/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 050252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1052 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1051 PM EDT...AFTER INITIALLY DIMINISHING...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT AND OUR REGION BEING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT A
ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE CAPITAL REGION. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL START OFF THE
EVENING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE PIECES
OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY...NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE/INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE
VALLEYS. AS FOR OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROPPING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK
TO JUST BELOW 10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL
WITH MAINLY 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A
SMALL BATCH OF SHRA WEST OF KALB SO WILL MENTION A VCSH FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THERE. OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN NY MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD TO KGFL. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK
THOUGH...SO AGAIN WILL MENTION JUST VCSH FOR NOW.

SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KPSF OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR
AND WINDS DECREASE. RAINFALL FROM EARLIER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOIST
GROUND CONDITIONS WHICH WILL AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITION HAVE BEEN FORECAST STARTING AROUND 04Z-06Z.
ELSEWHERE FOG FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT FOR SOME BR AND
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY AT KGFL.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL PARKED OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY..SOME WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AFTER
DARK...THEN BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 9-12 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/IRL/BGM
NEAR TERM...IRL/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 050252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1052 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1051 PM EDT...AFTER INITIALLY DIMINISHING...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT AND OUR REGION BEING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT A
ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE CAPITAL REGION. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL START OFF THE
EVENING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE PIECES
OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY...NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE/INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE
VALLEYS. AS FOR OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROPPING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK
TO JUST BELOW 10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL
WITH MAINLY 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A
SMALL BATCH OF SHRA WEST OF KALB SO WILL MENTION A VCSH FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THERE. OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN NY MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD TO KGFL. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK
THOUGH...SO AGAIN WILL MENTION JUST VCSH FOR NOW.

SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KPSF OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR
AND WINDS DECREASE. RAINFALL FROM EARLIER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOIST
GROUND CONDITIONS WHICH WILL AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITION HAVE BEEN FORECAST STARTING AROUND 04Z-06Z.
ELSEWHERE FOG FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT FOR SOME BR AND
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY AT KGFL.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL PARKED OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY..SOME WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AFTER
DARK...THEN BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 9-12 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/IRL/BGM
NEAR TERM...IRL/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 050252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1052 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1051 PM EDT...AFTER INITIALLY DIMINISHING...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE REDEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NY...MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT AND OUR REGION BEING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT A
ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE CAPITAL REGION. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL START OFF THE
EVENING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE PIECES
OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY...NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE/INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE
VALLEYS. AS FOR OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROPPING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK
TO JUST BELOW 10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL
WITH MAINLY 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A
SMALL BATCH OF SHRA WEST OF KALB SO WILL MENTION A VCSH FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THERE. OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN NY MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD TO KGFL. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK
THOUGH...SO AGAIN WILL MENTION JUST VCSH FOR NOW.

SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KPSF OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR
AND WINDS DECREASE. RAINFALL FROM EARLIER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOIST
GROUND CONDITIONS WHICH WILL AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITION HAVE BEEN FORECAST STARTING AROUND 04Z-06Z.
ELSEWHERE FOG FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT FOR SOME BR AND
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY AT KGFL.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL PARKED OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY..SOME WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AFTER
DARK...THEN BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 9-12 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/IRL/BGM
NEAR TERM...IRL/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KBOX 050158
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MODEST SFC BASED CAPE
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WEAK CELLS CONTINUE TO POP
IN A WEAK CONVERGENT REGION STRETCHED FROM NRN CT INTO E MA AND
OFFSHORE. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT THESE LAST FEW STORMS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK...SO THE FORECAST DRYING TREND PROMOTED
BY PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. ONE MORE SHORTEWAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENED CONVECTION
ACROSS NRN NY STATE AND WILL NEED TO WATCH S OF THE REGION WHERE
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDE. STILL THINK
MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS QUIET HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ROBUST FORCING OF AN ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY
DRIER BUT COOLER ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT. WHILE LESSER
INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER. THE MID-LEVEL
ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN UPON A BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BECOME WELL-MIXED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS...STORMS IN WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PERHAPS EVEN A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE WEATHER WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT. CERTAIN THOUGH THERE IS A THREAT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COAST. A TAD COOLER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW
80S. SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE MA-CT-RI BORDER. SUB-SEVERE. TEMPO MVFR
WITH +RA. SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE...BEGIN TO REFOCUS SE
OFFSHORE AROUND NANTUCKET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN OUTFLOW PUSHING S. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO N WITH PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA LINGER OVER THE FAR SE TERMINALS TILL AROUND 6-9Z.
TEMPO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS FOCUSED TOWARDS THE CAPE / ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR...THOUGH TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCED
RAIN DURING THE DAY MAY SEE MVFR-LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA WITH LOWER POSSIBILITY OF TSRA. LOW RISK OF SMALL HAIL.
BREEZY W-WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR
CIGS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING. VFR. SKC. LOW CONFIDENCE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT UNCERTAIN
ON THE EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WATCHING CLOSELY FOR STORM
IMPACT. STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD OFF TO THE N.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 050158
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MODEST SFC BASED CAPE
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WEAK CELLS CONTINUE TO POP
IN A WEAK CONVERGENT REGION STRETCHED FROM NRN CT INTO E MA AND
OFFSHORE. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT THESE LAST FEW STORMS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK...SO THE FORECAST DRYING TREND PROMOTED
BY PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. ONE MORE SHORTEWAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENED CONVECTION
ACROSS NRN NY STATE AND WILL NEED TO WATCH S OF THE REGION WHERE
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDE. STILL THINK
MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS QUIET HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ROBUST FORCING OF AN ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY
DRIER BUT COOLER ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT. WHILE LESSER
INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER. THE MID-LEVEL
ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN UPON A BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BECOME WELL-MIXED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS...STORMS IN WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PERHAPS EVEN A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE WEATHER WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT. CERTAIN THOUGH THERE IS A THREAT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COAST. A TAD COOLER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW
80S. SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE MA-CT-RI BORDER. SUB-SEVERE. TEMPO MVFR
WITH +RA. SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE...BEGIN TO REFOCUS SE
OFFSHORE AROUND NANTUCKET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN OUTFLOW PUSHING S. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO N WITH PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA LINGER OVER THE FAR SE TERMINALS TILL AROUND 6-9Z.
TEMPO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS FOCUSED TOWARDS THE CAPE / ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR...THOUGH TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCED
RAIN DURING THE DAY MAY SEE MVFR-LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA WITH LOWER POSSIBILITY OF TSRA. LOW RISK OF SMALL HAIL.
BREEZY W-WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR
CIGS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING. VFR. SKC. LOW CONFIDENCE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT UNCERTAIN
ON THE EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WATCHING CLOSELY FOR STORM
IMPACT. STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD OFF TO THE N.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 050158
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MODEST SFC BASED CAPE
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WEAK CELLS CONTINUE TO POP
IN A WEAK CONVERGENT REGION STRETCHED FROM NRN CT INTO E MA AND
OFFSHORE. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT THESE LAST FEW STORMS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK...SO THE FORECAST DRYING TREND PROMOTED
BY PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. ONE MORE SHORTEWAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENED CONVECTION
ACROSS NRN NY STATE AND WILL NEED TO WATCH S OF THE REGION WHERE
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDE. STILL THINK
MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS QUIET HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ROBUST FORCING OF AN ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY
DRIER BUT COOLER ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT. WHILE LESSER
INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER. THE MID-LEVEL
ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN UPON A BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BECOME WELL-MIXED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS...STORMS IN WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PERHAPS EVEN A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE WEATHER WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT. CERTAIN THOUGH THERE IS A THREAT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COAST. A TAD COOLER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW
80S. SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE MA-CT-RI BORDER. SUB-SEVERE. TEMPO MVFR
WITH +RA. SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE...BEGIN TO REFOCUS SE
OFFSHORE AROUND NANTUCKET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN OUTFLOW PUSHING S. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO N WITH PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA LINGER OVER THE FAR SE TERMINALS TILL AROUND 6-9Z.
TEMPO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS FOCUSED TOWARDS THE CAPE / ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR...THOUGH TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCED
RAIN DURING THE DAY MAY SEE MVFR-LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA WITH LOWER POSSIBILITY OF TSRA. LOW RISK OF SMALL HAIL.
BREEZY W-WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR
CIGS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING. VFR. SKC. LOW CONFIDENCE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT UNCERTAIN
ON THE EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WATCHING CLOSELY FOR STORM
IMPACT. STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD OFF TO THE N.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 050158
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WITH DECENT MID LVL LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MODEST SFC BASED CAPE
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WEAK CELLS CONTINUE TO POP
IN A WEAK CONVERGENT REGION STRETCHED FROM NRN CT INTO E MA AND
OFFSHORE. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT THESE LAST FEW STORMS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK...SO THE FORECAST DRYING TREND PROMOTED
BY PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. ONE MORE SHORTEWAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENED CONVECTION
ACROSS NRN NY STATE AND WILL NEED TO WATCH S OF THE REGION WHERE
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDE. STILL THINK
MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS QUIET HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ROBUST FORCING OF AN ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY
DRIER BUT COOLER ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT. WHILE LESSER
INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER. THE MID-LEVEL
ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN UPON A BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BECOME WELL-MIXED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS...STORMS IN WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PERHAPS EVEN A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE WEATHER WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT. CERTAIN THOUGH THERE IS A THREAT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COAST. A TAD COOLER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW
80S. SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE MA-CT-RI BORDER. SUB-SEVERE. TEMPO MVFR
WITH +RA. SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE...BEGIN TO REFOCUS SE
OFFSHORE AROUND NANTUCKET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN OUTFLOW PUSHING S. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO N WITH PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA LINGER OVER THE FAR SE TERMINALS TILL AROUND 6-9Z.
TEMPO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS FOCUSED TOWARDS THE CAPE / ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR...THOUGH TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCED
RAIN DURING THE DAY MAY SEE MVFR-LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA WITH LOWER POSSIBILITY OF TSRA. LOW RISK OF SMALL HAIL.
BREEZY W-WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR
CIGS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING. VFR. SKC. LOW CONFIDENCE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT UNCERTAIN
ON THE EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WATCHING CLOSELY FOR STORM
IMPACT. STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD OFF TO THE N.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT



000
FXUS61 KALY 042358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
758 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TRENDING TO CALMER WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...

AS OF 600 PM EDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUICKLY BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH
LOSS OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. CONTINUE TO TRACK TWO MAIN
AREAS...THE FIRST A BATCH OF SHOWERS/WEAKENED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND
EXTREME NORTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...AND ONE CELL TRACKING EAST INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY THAT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
HAVE TAKEN A BLENDED MESOSCALE MODEL APPROACH WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
AND CHANCE POPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL
START OFF THE EVENING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE PIECES OF UPPER- LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY...NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE/INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE
VALLEYS. AS FOR OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROPPING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK
TO JUST BELOW 10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL
WITH MAINLY 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A
SMALL BATCH OF SHRA WEST OF KALB SO WILL MENTION A VCSH FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THERE. OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN NY MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD TO KGFL. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK
THOUGH...SO AGAIN WILL MENTION JUST VCSH FOR NOW.

SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KPSF OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR
AND WINDS DECREASE. RAINFALL FROM EARLIER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOIST
GROUND CONDITIONS WHICH WILL AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITION HAVE BEEN FORECAST STARTING AROUND 04Z-06Z.
ELSEWHERE FOG FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT FOR SOME BR AND
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY AT KGFL.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL PARKED OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY..SOME WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AFTER
DARK...THEN BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 9-12 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/IRL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 042358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
758 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TRENDING TO CALMER WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...

AS OF 600 PM EDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUICKLY BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH
LOSS OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. CONTINUE TO TRACK TWO MAIN
AREAS...THE FIRST A BATCH OF SHOWERS/WEAKENED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND
EXTREME NORTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...AND ONE CELL TRACKING EAST INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY THAT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
HAVE TAKEN A BLENDED MESOSCALE MODEL APPROACH WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
AND CHANCE POPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL
START OFF THE EVENING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE PIECES OF UPPER- LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY...NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE/INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE
VALLEYS. AS FOR OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROPPING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK
TO JUST BELOW 10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL
WITH MAINLY 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A
SMALL BATCH OF SHRA WEST OF KALB SO WILL MENTION A VCSH FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THERE. OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN NY MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD TO KGFL. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK
THOUGH...SO AGAIN WILL MENTION JUST VCSH FOR NOW.

SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KPSF OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR
AND WINDS DECREASE. RAINFALL FROM EARLIER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOIST
GROUND CONDITIONS WHICH WILL AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITION HAVE BEEN FORECAST STARTING AROUND 04Z-06Z.
ELSEWHERE FOG FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT FOR SOME BR AND
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY AT KGFL.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL PARKED OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY..SOME WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AFTER
DARK...THEN BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 9-12 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/IRL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 042358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
758 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TRENDING TO CALMER WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...

AS OF 600 PM EDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUICKLY BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH
LOSS OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. CONTINUE TO TRACK TWO MAIN
AREAS...THE FIRST A BATCH OF SHOWERS/WEAKENED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND
EXTREME NORTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...AND ONE CELL TRACKING EAST INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY THAT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
HAVE TAKEN A BLENDED MESOSCALE MODEL APPROACH WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
AND CHANCE POPS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO GETTING AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL
START OFF THE EVENING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE PIECES OF UPPER- LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY...NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE/INITIATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE
VALLEYS. AS FOR OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROPPING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK
TO JUST BELOW 10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL
WITH MAINLY 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A
SMALL BATCH OF SHRA WEST OF KALB SO WILL MENTION A VCSH FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THERE. OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN NY MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD TO KGFL. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK
THOUGH...SO AGAIN WILL MENTION JUST VCSH FOR NOW.

SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KPSF OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR
AND WINDS DECREASE. RAINFALL FROM EARLIER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOIST
GROUND CONDITIONS WHICH WILL AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITION HAVE BEEN FORECAST STARTING AROUND 04Z-06Z.
ELSEWHERE FOG FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT FOR SOME BR AND
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY AT KGFL.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL PARKED OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY..SOME WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AFTER
DARK...THEN BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 9-12 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/IRL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 042332
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
732 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS OF 5 PM
EDT...
ONE CELL ACROSS SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY WHERE LAPS DATA SUGGESTS
SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S AND SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY CONFINED ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

AS OF 330 PM EDT... THE MAIN LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
TRACKED INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES UPSTREAM. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED FROM THE LOW-MID 60S TO MID-UPPER
50S. H2O VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RATHER BROAD YET PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC
FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE
SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TOO ASSIST WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER...IT DOES SEEM THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS DIMINISHING AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. WE WILL COLLABORATE WITH SPC TO ADJUST THE CURRENT WATCH
THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT.

OVERNIGHT...THOSE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVES AND COOL ADVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS MAINLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE DACKS. ELSEWHERE...A VARIETY
OF SKY COVERAGE RANGING FROM MOCLEAR SOUTH OF ALBANY THRU THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TO MOCLOUDY FOR THE DACKS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN
FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE/INITIATE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE VALLEYS. AS FOR
OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE
DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH
LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROPPING AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO JUST BELOW
10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A
SMALL BATCH OF SHRA WEST OF KALB SO WILL MENTION A VCSH FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THERE. OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN NY MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD TO KGFL. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK
THOUGH...SO AGAIN WILL MENTION JUST VCSH FOR NOW.

SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KPSF OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR
AND WINDS DECREASE. RAINFALL FROM EARLIER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOIST
GROUND CONDITIONS WHICH WILL AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITION HAVE BEEN FORECAST STARTING AROUND 04Z-06Z.
ELSEWHERE FOG FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT FOR SOME BR AND
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY AT KGFL.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL PARKED OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY..SOME WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AFTER
DARK...THEN BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 9-12 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 042332
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
732 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS OF 5 PM
EDT...
ONE CELL ACROSS SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY WHERE LAPS DATA SUGGESTS
SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S AND SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY CONFINED ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

AS OF 330 PM EDT... THE MAIN LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
TRACKED INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES UPSTREAM. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED FROM THE LOW-MID 60S TO MID-UPPER
50S. H2O VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RATHER BROAD YET PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC
FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE
SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TOO ASSIST WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER...IT DOES SEEM THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS DIMINISHING AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. WE WILL COLLABORATE WITH SPC TO ADJUST THE CURRENT WATCH
THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT.

OVERNIGHT...THOSE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVES AND COOL ADVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS MAINLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE DACKS. ELSEWHERE...A VARIETY
OF SKY COVERAGE RANGING FROM MOCLEAR SOUTH OF ALBANY THRU THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TO MOCLOUDY FOR THE DACKS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN
FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE/INITIATE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE VALLEYS. AS FOR
OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE
DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH
LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROPPING AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO JUST BELOW
10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A
SMALL BATCH OF SHRA WEST OF KALB SO WILL MENTION A VCSH FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THERE. OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE DRY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN NY MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FROM AROUND KALB NORTHWARD TO KGFL. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK
THOUGH...SO AGAIN WILL MENTION JUST VCSH FOR NOW.

SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KPSF OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR
AND WINDS DECREASE. RAINFALL FROM EARLIER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOIST
GROUND CONDITIONS WHICH WILL AID IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITION HAVE BEEN FORECAST STARTING AROUND 04Z-06Z.
ELSEWHERE FOG FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED EXCEPT FOR SOME BR AND
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY AT KGFL.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL PARKED OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY..SOME WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AFTER
DARK...THEN BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 9-12 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KBOX 042248
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
648 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

INTO THIS EVENING...

STRETCHED MID-LEVEL IMPULSES THRU THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW KICKING
OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A LINGERING DECENT
ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. NOT
THINKING AS MUCH UMPF AS EARLIER STORMS...ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN
WORKED OVER TO SOME DEGREE AND WEAKER/STRETCHED MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW NOT INVOKING MORE VIGOROUS FORCING AS
THE WAVE EARLIER TODAY. STILL EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS
WITH MUCAPES/INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1K J/KG. WHILE A DOWNWARD
TREND IS EVIDENT...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A STORM HERE OR THERE
KICKING OFF BUT REMAINING SUB-SEVERE.

THINK THE HRRR HAS THE RIGHT IDEA...FOCUS ALONG THE MA/RI/CT BORDER
WHERE MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS BEING STRETCHED AND ALONG THE N-PERIPHERY
OF DRIER AIR DISCERNED PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THUS LIKELY POPS
FOR THOSE LOCALES...CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR S/CENTRAL CT
AND RI AS WELL AS SE MA INCLUDING THE CAPE/ISLANDS...WELCOMING AS
THEY TOOK THE BRUNT EARLIER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ROBUST FORCING OF AN ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY
DRIER BUT COOLER ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT. WHILE LESSER
INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER. THE MID-LEVEL
ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN UPON A BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BECOME WELL-MIXED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS...STORMS IN WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PERHAPS EVEN A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE WEATHER WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT. CERTAIN THOUGH THERE IS A THREAT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COAST. A TAD COOLER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW
80S. SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE MA-CT-RI BORDER. SUB-SEVERE. TEMPO MVFR
WITH +RA. SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE...BEGIN TO REFOCUS SE
OFFSHORE AROUND NANTUCKET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN OUTFLOW PUSHING S. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO N WITH PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA LINGER OVER THE FAR SE TERMINALS TILL AROUND 6-9Z.
TEMPO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS FOCUSED TOWARDS THE CAPE / ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR...THOUGH TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCED
RAIN DURING THE DAY MAY SEE MVFR-LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA WITH LOWER POSSIBILITY OF TSRA. LOW RISK OF SMALL HAIL.
BREEZY W-WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR
CIGS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING. VFR. SKC. LOW CONFIDENCE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT UNCERTAIN
ON THE EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WATCHING CLOSELY FOR STORM
IMPACT. STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD OFF TO THE N.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 042248
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
648 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

INTO THIS EVENING...

STRETCHED MID-LEVEL IMPULSES THRU THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW KICKING
OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A LINGERING DECENT
ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. NOT
THINKING AS MUCH UMPF AS EARLIER STORMS...ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN
WORKED OVER TO SOME DEGREE AND WEAKER/STRETCHED MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW NOT INVOKING MORE VIGOROUS FORCING AS
THE WAVE EARLIER TODAY. STILL EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS
WITH MUCAPES/INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1K J/KG. WHILE A DOWNWARD
TREND IS EVIDENT...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A STORM HERE OR THERE
KICKING OFF BUT REMAINING SUB-SEVERE.

THINK THE HRRR HAS THE RIGHT IDEA...FOCUS ALONG THE MA/RI/CT BORDER
WHERE MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS BEING STRETCHED AND ALONG THE N-PERIPHERY
OF DRIER AIR DISCERNED PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THUS LIKELY POPS
FOR THOSE LOCALES...CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR S/CENTRAL CT
AND RI AS WELL AS SE MA INCLUDING THE CAPE/ISLANDS...WELCOMING AS
THEY TOOK THE BRUNT EARLIER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ROBUST FORCING OF AN ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY
DRIER BUT COOLER ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT. WHILE LESSER
INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER. THE MID-LEVEL
ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN UPON A BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BECOME WELL-MIXED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS...STORMS IN WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PERHAPS EVEN A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE WEATHER WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT. CERTAIN THOUGH THERE IS A THREAT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COAST. A TAD COOLER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW
80S. SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE MA-CT-RI BORDER. SUB-SEVERE. TEMPO MVFR
WITH +RA. SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE...BEGIN TO REFOCUS SE
OFFSHORE AROUND NANTUCKET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN OUTFLOW PUSHING S. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO N WITH PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA LINGER OVER THE FAR SE TERMINALS TILL AROUND 6-9Z.
TEMPO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS FOCUSED TOWARDS THE CAPE / ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR...THOUGH TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCED
RAIN DURING THE DAY MAY SEE MVFR-LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA WITH LOWER POSSIBILITY OF TSRA. LOW RISK OF SMALL HAIL.
BREEZY W-WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR
CIGS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING. VFR. SKC. LOW CONFIDENCE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT UNCERTAIN
ON THE EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WATCHING CLOSELY FOR STORM
IMPACT. STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD OFF TO THE N.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT



000
FXUS61 KALY 042101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
501 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS OF 5 PM
EDT...
ONE CELL ACROSS SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY WHERE LAPS DATA SUGGESTS
SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S AND SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY CONFINED ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

AS OF 330 PM EDT... THE MAIN LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
TRACKED INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES UPSTREAM. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED FROM THE LOW-MID 60S TO MID-UPPER
50S. H2O VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RATHER BROAD YET PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC
FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE
SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TOO ASSIST WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER...IT DOES SEEM THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS DIMINISHING AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. WE WILL COLLABORATE WITH SPC TO ADJUST THE CURRENT WATCH
THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT.

OVERNIGHT...THOSE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVES AND COOL ADVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS MAINLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE DACKS. ELSEWHERE...A VARIETY
OF SKY COVERAGE RANGING FROM MOCLEAR SOUTH OF ALBANY THRU THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TO MOCLOUDY FOR THE DACKS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN
FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE/INITIATE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE VALLEYS. AS FOR
OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE
DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH
LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROPPING AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO JUST BELOW
10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. TRIED TO TIME THREAT WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT TAF
SITES.

SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY
MVFR VSBY IN FOG EXPECTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE BUT
SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 042101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
501 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS OF 5 PM
EDT...
ONE CELL ACROSS SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY WHERE LAPS DATA SUGGESTS
SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S AND SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY CONFINED ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

AS OF 330 PM EDT... THE MAIN LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
TRACKED INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES UPSTREAM. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED FROM THE LOW-MID 60S TO MID-UPPER
50S. H2O VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RATHER BROAD YET PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC
FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE
SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TOO ASSIST WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER...IT DOES SEEM THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS DIMINISHING AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. WE WILL COLLABORATE WITH SPC TO ADJUST THE CURRENT WATCH
THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT.

OVERNIGHT...THOSE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVES AND COOL ADVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS MAINLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE DACKS. ELSEWHERE...A VARIETY
OF SKY COVERAGE RANGING FROM MOCLEAR SOUTH OF ALBANY THRU THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TO MOCLOUDY FOR THE DACKS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN
FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE/INITIATE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE VALLEYS. AS FOR
OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE
DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH
LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROPPING AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO JUST BELOW
10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. TRIED TO TIME THREAT WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT TAF
SITES.

SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY
MVFR VSBY IN FOG EXPECTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE BUT
SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 042101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
501 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS OF 5 PM
EDT...
ONE CELL ACROSS SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY WHERE LAPS DATA SUGGESTS
SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S AND SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY CONFINED ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

AS OF 330 PM EDT... THE MAIN LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
TRACKED INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES UPSTREAM. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED FROM THE LOW-MID 60S TO MID-UPPER
50S. H2O VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RATHER BROAD YET PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC
FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE
SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TOO ASSIST WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER...IT DOES SEEM THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS DIMINISHING AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. WE WILL COLLABORATE WITH SPC TO ADJUST THE CURRENT WATCH
THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT.

OVERNIGHT...THOSE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVES AND COOL ADVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS MAINLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE DACKS. ELSEWHERE...A VARIETY
OF SKY COVERAGE RANGING FROM MOCLEAR SOUTH OF ALBANY THRU THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TO MOCLOUDY FOR THE DACKS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN
FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE/INITIATE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE VALLEYS. AS FOR
OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE
DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH
LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROPPING AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO JUST BELOW
10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. TRIED TO TIME THREAT WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT TAF
SITES.

SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY
MVFR VSBY IN FOG EXPECTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE BUT
SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 042101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
501 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS OF 5 PM
EDT...
ONE CELL ACROSS SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY WHERE LAPS DATA SUGGESTS
SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S AND SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY CONFINED ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

AS OF 330 PM EDT... THE MAIN LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
TRACKED INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES UPSTREAM. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED FROM THE LOW-MID 60S TO MID-UPPER
50S. H2O VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RATHER BROAD YET PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC
FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE
SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TOO ASSIST WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER...IT DOES SEEM THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS DIMINISHING AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. WE WILL COLLABORATE WITH SPC TO ADJUST THE CURRENT WATCH
THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT.

OVERNIGHT...THOSE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVES AND COOL ADVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS MAINLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE DACKS. ELSEWHERE...A VARIETY
OF SKY COVERAGE RANGING FROM MOCLEAR SOUTH OF ALBANY THRU THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TO MOCLOUDY FOR THE DACKS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN
FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE/INITIATE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE VALLEYS. AS FOR
OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE
DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH
LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROPPING AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO JUST BELOW
10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. TRIED TO TIME THREAT WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT TAF
SITES.

SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY
MVFR VSBY IN FOG EXPECTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE BUT
SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 042006
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT... THE MAIN LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
TRACKED INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES UPSTREAM. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED FROM THE LOW-MID 60S TO MID-UPPER
50S. H2O VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RATHER BROAD YET PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC
FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE
SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TOO ASSIST WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER...IT DOES SEEM THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS DIMINISHING AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. WE WILL COLLABORATE WITH SPC TO ADJUST THE CURRENT WATCH
THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT.

OVERNIGHT...THOSE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVES AND COOL ADVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS MAINLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE DACKS. ELSEWHERE...A VARIETY
OF SKY COVERAGE RANGING FROM MOCLEAR SOUTH OF ALBANY THRU THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TO MOCLOUDY FOR THE DACKS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN
FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE/INITIATE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE VALLEYS. AS FOR
OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE
DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH
LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROPPING AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO JUST BELOW
10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. TRIED TO TIME THREAT WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT TAF
SITES.

SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY
MVFR VSBY IN FOG EXPECTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE BUT
SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 042006
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WE WATCH FOR A DEVELOPING STORM TO OUR SOUTH AND WHAT...IF
ANY...IMPACTS FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT... THE MAIN LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
TRACKED INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES UPSTREAM. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED FROM THE LOW-MID 60S TO MID-UPPER
50S. H2O VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RATHER BROAD YET PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC
FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE
SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TOO ASSIST WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER...IT DOES SEEM THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS DIMINISHING AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. WE WILL COLLABORATE WITH SPC TO ADJUST THE CURRENT WATCH
THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT.

OVERNIGHT...THOSE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVES AND COOL ADVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS MAINLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE DACKS. ELSEWHERE...A VARIETY
OF SKY COVERAGE RANGING FROM MOCLEAR SOUTH OF ALBANY THRU THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TO MOCLOUDY FOR THE DACKS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN
FACT...A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE/INITIATE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN MIGRATE INTO THE VALLEYS. AS FOR
OVERALL INSTABILITY...NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS TUESDAYS BUT SBCAPES
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0C. WHERE
DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...THE CHANCE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH
LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROPPING AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 8K FEET. AS THE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO JUST BELOW
10C...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS WELL WITH MAINLY 70S
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT SLOWLY RECOVER AND SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD. WE WILL REDUCE
POPS/WX WITH A MOCLR-PT/MOCLDY SKY FORECAST /MAINLY THE DACKS FOR
MOCLDY/ ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE 60S AND 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
40S TO MID 50S.

WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST TRENDS
ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE EVOLVING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIKELY DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS FROM
GFS/ECMWF INDICATING THIS SYSTEM TO PASS BY TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. IN FACT...BOTH 12Z
MODELS SHOWING NO QPF. SO AS NOT TO CHANGE FORECAST CONSISTENCY
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL MORE THAN THREE
DAYS AWAY...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE FROM FORECAST.

WILL LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AGAIN FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF ALBANY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COASTAL STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

A POTENTIALLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN SYNCH AT THIS TIME SO
WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF ALBANY AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DEVELOPING FAST FLOW ALOFT.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TO SECOND
WEEK OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. TRIED TO TIME THREAT WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT TAF
SITES.

SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY
MVFR VSBY IN FOG EXPECTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE BUT
SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CIRCULATE DISTURBANCES AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAXIMUM RELATIVELY HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70-100 PERCENT THEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM 40-70 PERCENT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
AS BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 041858
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
258 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING IN AN AREA OF BETTER
MOISTURE / HIGHER THETA-E FORCED AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. A
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN WITH SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 50
KTS...WITH SOME TURNING EVIDENT WITHIN THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IN
THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. CHECK OUT THE 18Z ALBANY SOUNDINGS WHERE
MUCAPE VALUES ARE NEARLY 3K J/KG AND HIGHLIGHT EXACTLY THE ABOVE
POINTS.

FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS THE N/W REGIONS AWAY FROM WHERE THE DRY-SLOT
IS APPARENT WITHIN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER SE NEW ENGLAND...
THOUGH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT S/E INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED OFFSHORE BY THE MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE.

LIKELY POPS WITH PRIORITIZED THREATS OF THE FOLLOWING: HEAVY RAIN /
FREQUENT LIGHTNING / URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ISSUES /
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / LARGE HAIL. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF A TORNADO AS WELL AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW DOPPLER-RADAR
INDICATED.

WATCH NUMBER 469 CONTINUES TILL 8 PM. MAY NEED TO EXPAND INTO N CT
AND RI. CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE ENVIRONMENT. AT THIS TIME DOWN-
STREAM TRENDS DO NOT FAVOR AN EXPANSION OF THE WATCH. LOOKS LIKE
MOST OF THE ENERGY IS LOCKED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE / PVA OF THE
MID-LEVEL VORTEX DISCERNED FROM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THROUGH THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
FOLLOWED BY THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ENOUGH FORCING WITHIN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE TO INVOKE SOME SHOWERY WEATHER...YET
TWO THINGS: ONE IS THAT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH DRIER AIR AS THE
SURFACE...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK...AND TWO IS THAT A DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE WORKING DOWN THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE ACROSS THE AREA PUTTING A SQUASH ON ACTIVITY. WHILE CAN
NOT DISAGREE WITH PRIOR FORECASTER OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT YIELDING SMALL HAIL...FEEL THAT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION MAY LIMIT THE LIFT. REMOVED FROM PREVAILING IN
THE FORECAST.

SO WITH THE FORCING APPARENT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM FOCUSING ON THE EARLY-HALF OF
THE DAY. FROM THEN ON DRIER WEATHER WITH BREEZY W-WINDS. A TAD
COOLER AS THE AIR-MASS ALOFT COOLS. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW 80S.
SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA WITH POTENTIAL THREATS: LARGE HAIL / STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE W / HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CIGS. LOW RISK TORNADO. ACTIVITY
SWEEPING ENE AT 25-30 KTS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING TOWARDS MIDDAY GOING W TO E INTO THE EVENING
HRS. STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. +RA WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL. BRIEF MVFR / IFR CONDITIONS WITH TSRA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA LINGER OVER THE SE TERMINALS TILL AROUND 6-9Z. TEMPO
MVFR- IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE LIGHT W-WINDS AND VFR...THOUGH
TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCED RAIN DURING THE DAY LIKELY TO SEE
MVFR-LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA WITH LOWER POSSIBILITY OF TSRA. LOW RISK OF SMALL HAIL.
BREEZY W-WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR
CIGS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING. VFR. SKC. LOW CONFIDENCE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT UNCERTAIN
ON THE EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WATCHING CLOSELY FOR STORM
IMPACT. STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD OFF TO THE N.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 041858
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
258 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING IN AN AREA OF BETTER
MOISTURE / HIGHER THETA-E FORCED AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. A
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN WITH SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 50
KTS...WITH SOME TURNING EVIDENT WITHIN THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IN
THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. CHECK OUT THE 18Z ALBANY SOUNDINGS WHERE
MUCAPE VALUES ARE NEARLY 3K J/KG AND HIGHLIGHT EXACTLY THE ABOVE
POINTS.

FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS THE N/W REGIONS AWAY FROM WHERE THE DRY-SLOT
IS APPARENT WITHIN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER SE NEW ENGLAND...
THOUGH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT S/E INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED OFFSHORE BY THE MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE.

LIKELY POPS WITH PRIORITIZED THREATS OF THE FOLLOWING: HEAVY RAIN /
FREQUENT LIGHTNING / URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ISSUES /
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / LARGE HAIL. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF A TORNADO AS WELL AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW DOPPLER-RADAR
INDICATED.

WATCH NUMBER 469 CONTINUES TILL 8 PM. MAY NEED TO EXPAND INTO N CT
AND RI. CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE ENVIRONMENT. AT THIS TIME DOWN-
STREAM TRENDS DO NOT FAVOR AN EXPANSION OF THE WATCH. LOOKS LIKE
MOST OF THE ENERGY IS LOCKED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE / PVA OF THE
MID-LEVEL VORTEX DISCERNED FROM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

ANOTHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THROUGH THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
FOLLOWED BY THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ENOUGH FORCING WITHIN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE TO INVOKE SOME SHOWERY WEATHER...YET
TWO THINGS: ONE IS THAT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH DRIER AIR AS THE
SURFACE...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK...AND TWO IS THAT A DRY-
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE WORKING DOWN THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE ACROSS THE AREA PUTTING A SQUASH ON ACTIVITY. WHILE CAN
NOT DISAGREE WITH PRIOR FORECASTER OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT YIELDING SMALL HAIL...FEEL THAT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION MAY LIMIT THE LIFT. REMOVED FROM PREVAILING IN
THE FORECAST.

SO WITH THE FORCING APPARENT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM FOCUSING ON THE EARLY-HALF OF
THE DAY. FROM THEN ON DRIER WEATHER WITH BREEZY W-WINDS. A TAD
COOLER AS THE AIR-MASS ALOFT COOLS. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW 80S.
SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
  PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA WITH POTENTIAL THREATS: LARGE HAIL / STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE W / HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR-IFR
VSBYS. MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CIGS. LOW RISK TORNADO. ACTIVITY
SWEEPING ENE AT 25-30 KTS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING TOWARDS MIDDAY GOING W TO E INTO THE EVENING
HRS. STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. +RA WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL. BRIEF MVFR / IFR CONDITIONS WITH TSRA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA LINGER OVER THE SE TERMINALS TILL AROUND 6-9Z. TEMPO
MVFR- IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE LIGHT W-WINDS AND VFR...THOUGH
TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCED RAIN DURING THE DAY LIKELY TO SEE
MVFR-LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA WITH LOWER POSSIBILITY OF TSRA. LOW RISK OF SMALL HAIL.
BREEZY W-WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR
CIGS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING. VFR. SKC. LOW CONFIDENCE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT UNCERTAIN
ON THE EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WATCHING CLOSELY FOR STORM
IMPACT. STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD OFF TO THE N.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 041751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY
AS DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST
OF EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN NE AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES AS 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING IS UNDERWAY.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM
THE LAPS/SPC SUGGEST SBCAPES WERE CLOSE TO 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40KTS. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION AND PER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE RECENT
UPDATE. AS OF THE TIME OF THIS AFD...2 INCH HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED
/SEE LSR FOR DETAILS/ WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HUDSON RIVER/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS. FOR PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS AND CENTRAL-WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DEWPOINTS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SO NO
WATCH FOR THESE AREAS...YET EMBEDDED WITH THE DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION WHERE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. SO MAIN
UPDATE WAS FOR THE WATCH...HOURLY TRENDS AND RAISE DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. TRIED TO TIME THREAT WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT TAF
SITES.

SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY
MVFR VSBY IN FOG EXPECTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE BUT
SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 041751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY
AS DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST
OF EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN NE AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES AS 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING IS UNDERWAY.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM
THE LAPS/SPC SUGGEST SBCAPES WERE CLOSE TO 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40KTS. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION AND PER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE RECENT
UPDATE. AS OF THE TIME OF THIS AFD...2 INCH HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED
/SEE LSR FOR DETAILS/ WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HUDSON RIVER/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS. FOR PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS AND CENTRAL-WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DEWPOINTS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SO NO
WATCH FOR THESE AREAS...YET EMBEDDED WITH THE DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION WHERE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. SO MAIN
UPDATE WAS FOR THE WATCH...HOURLY TRENDS AND RAISE DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. TRIED TO TIME THREAT WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT TAF
SITES.

SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY
MVFR VSBY IN FOG EXPECTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE BUT
SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 041751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY
AS DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST
OF EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN NE AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES AS 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING IS UNDERWAY.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM
THE LAPS/SPC SUGGEST SBCAPES WERE CLOSE TO 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40KTS. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION AND PER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE RECENT
UPDATE. AS OF THE TIME OF THIS AFD...2 INCH HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED
/SEE LSR FOR DETAILS/ WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HUDSON RIVER/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS. FOR PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS AND CENTRAL-WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DEWPOINTS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SO NO
WATCH FOR THESE AREAS...YET EMBEDDED WITH THE DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION WHERE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. SO MAIN
UPDATE WAS FOR THE WATCH...HOURLY TRENDS AND RAISE DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. TRIED TO TIME THREAT WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT TAF
SITES.

SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY
MVFR VSBY IN FOG EXPECTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE BUT
SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 041751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY
AS DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST
OF EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN NE AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES AS 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING IS UNDERWAY.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM
THE LAPS/SPC SUGGEST SBCAPES WERE CLOSE TO 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40KTS. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION AND PER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE RECENT
UPDATE. AS OF THE TIME OF THIS AFD...2 INCH HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED
/SEE LSR FOR DETAILS/ WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HUDSON RIVER/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS. FOR PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS AND CENTRAL-WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DEWPOINTS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SO NO
WATCH FOR THESE AREAS...YET EMBEDDED WITH THE DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION WHERE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. SO MAIN
UPDATE WAS FOR THE WATCH...HOURLY TRENDS AND RAISE DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. TRIED TO TIME THREAT WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT TAF
SITES.

SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY
MVFR VSBY IN FOG EXPECTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE BUT
SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 041751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY
AS DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST
OF EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN NE AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES AS 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING IS UNDERWAY.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM
THE LAPS/SPC SUGGEST SBCAPES WERE CLOSE TO 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40KTS. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION AND PER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE RECENT
UPDATE. AS OF THE TIME OF THIS AFD...2 INCH HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED
/SEE LSR FOR DETAILS/ WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HUDSON RIVER/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS. FOR PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS AND CENTRAL-WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DEWPOINTS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SO NO
WATCH FOR THESE AREAS...YET EMBEDDED WITH THE DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION WHERE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. SO MAIN
UPDATE WAS FOR THE WATCH...HOURLY TRENDS AND RAISE DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. TRIED TO TIME THREAT WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT TAF
SITES.

SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY
MVFR VSBY IN FOG EXPECTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE BUT
SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 041751
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY
AS DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST
OF EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN NE AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES AS 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING IS UNDERWAY.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM
THE LAPS/SPC SUGGEST SBCAPES WERE CLOSE TO 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40KTS. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION AND PER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE RECENT
UPDATE. AS OF THE TIME OF THIS AFD...2 INCH HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED
/SEE LSR FOR DETAILS/ WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HUDSON RIVER/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS. FOR PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS AND CENTRAL-WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DEWPOINTS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SO NO
WATCH FOR THESE AREAS...YET EMBEDDED WITH THE DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION WHERE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. SO MAIN
UPDATE WAS FOR THE WATCH...HOURLY TRENDS AND RAISE DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. TRIED TO TIME THREAT WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT TAF
SITES.

SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY
MVFR VSBY IN FOG EXPECTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE BUT
SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 041734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY
AS DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST
OF EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN NE AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES AS 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING IS UNDERWAY.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM
THE LAPS/SPC SUGGEST SBCAPES WERE CLOSE TO 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40KTS. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION AND PER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE RECENT
UPDATE. AS OF THE TIME OF THIS AFD...2 INCH HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED
/SEE LSR FOR DETAILS/ WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HUDSON RIVER/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS. FOR PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS AND CENTRAL-WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DEWPOINTS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SO NO
WATCH FOR THESE AREAS...YET EMBEDDED WITH THE DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION WHERE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. SO MAIN
UPDATE WAS FOR THE WATCH...HOURLY TRENDS AND RAISE DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DAY AS
ADDIITONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND OR SMALL HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR. HAVE ADDRESSED
THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONIFIDENCE TO TIME
INDIVIDUALS STORMS AT ANY TAF SITE. MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS 18Z-23Z.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 041734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY
AS DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST
OF EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN NE AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES AS 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING IS UNDERWAY.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM
THE LAPS/SPC SUGGEST SBCAPES WERE CLOSE TO 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40KTS. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION AND PER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE RECENT
UPDATE. AS OF THE TIME OF THIS AFD...2 INCH HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED
/SEE LSR FOR DETAILS/ WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HUDSON RIVER/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS. FOR PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS AND CENTRAL-WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DEWPOINTS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SO NO
WATCH FOR THESE AREAS...YET EMBEDDED WITH THE DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION WHERE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. SO MAIN
UPDATE WAS FOR THE WATCH...HOURLY TRENDS AND RAISE DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DAY AS
ADDIITONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND OR SMALL HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR. HAVE ADDRESSED
THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONIFIDENCE TO TIME
INDIVIDUALS STORMS AT ANY TAF SITE. MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS 18Z-23Z.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 041734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY
AS DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST
OF EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN NE AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES AS 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING IS UNDERWAY.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM
THE LAPS/SPC SUGGEST SBCAPES WERE CLOSE TO 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40KTS. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION AND PER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE RECENT
UPDATE. AS OF THE TIME OF THIS AFD...2 INCH HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED
/SEE LSR FOR DETAILS/ WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HUDSON RIVER/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS. FOR PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS AND CENTRAL-WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DEWPOINTS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SO NO
WATCH FOR THESE AREAS...YET EMBEDDED WITH THE DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION WHERE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. SO MAIN
UPDATE WAS FOR THE WATCH...HOURLY TRENDS AND RAISE DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DAY AS
ADDIITONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND OR SMALL HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR. HAVE ADDRESSED
THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONIFIDENCE TO TIME
INDIVIDUALS STORMS AT ANY TAF SITE. MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS 18Z-23Z.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 041703
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY
AS DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST
OF EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN NE AS 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING IS UNDERWAY.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM
THE LAPS/SPC SUGGEST SBCAPES WERE CLOSE TO 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40KTS. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION AND PER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE RECENT
UPDATE. AS OF THE TIME OF THIS AFD...2 INCH HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED
/SEE LSR FOR DETAILS/ WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HUDSON RIVER/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS. FOR PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS AND CENTRAL-WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DEWPOINTS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SO NO
WATCH FOR THESE AREAS...YET EMBEDDED WITH THE DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION WHERE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. SO MAIN
UPDATE WAS FOR THE WATCH...HOURLY TRENDS AND RAISE DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DAY AS
ADDIITONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND OR SMALL HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR. HAVE ADDRESSED
THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONIFIDENCE TO TIME
INDIVIDUALS STORMS AT ANY TAF SITE. MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS 18Z-23Z.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 041703
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY
AS DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST
OF EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN NE AS 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING IS UNDERWAY.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM
THE LAPS/SPC SUGGEST SBCAPES WERE CLOSE TO 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40KTS. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION AND PER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE RECENT
UPDATE. AS OF THE TIME OF THIS AFD...2 INCH HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED
/SEE LSR FOR DETAILS/ WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HUDSON RIVER/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS. FOR PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS AND CENTRAL-WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DEWPOINTS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SO NO
WATCH FOR THESE AREAS...YET EMBEDDED WITH THE DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION WHERE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. SO MAIN
UPDATE WAS FOR THE WATCH...HOURLY TRENDS AND RAISE DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DAY AS
ADDIITONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND OR SMALL HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR. HAVE ADDRESSED
THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONIFIDENCE TO TIME
INDIVIDUALS STORMS AT ANY TAF SITE. MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS 18Z-23Z.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 041703
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY
AS DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST
OF EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN NE AS 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING IS UNDERWAY.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM
THE LAPS/SPC SUGGEST SBCAPES WERE CLOSE TO 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40KTS. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION AND PER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE RECENT
UPDATE. AS OF THE TIME OF THIS AFD...2 INCH HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED
/SEE LSR FOR DETAILS/ WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HUDSON RIVER/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS. FOR PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS AND CENTRAL-WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DEWPOINTS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SO NO
WATCH FOR THESE AREAS...YET EMBEDDED WITH THE DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION WHERE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. SO MAIN
UPDATE WAS FOR THE WATCH...HOURLY TRENDS AND RAISE DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DAY AS
ADDIITONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND OR SMALL HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR. HAVE ADDRESSED
THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONIFIDENCE TO TIME
INDIVIDUALS STORMS AT ANY TAF SITE. MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS 18Z-23Z.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 041703
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY
AS DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST
OF EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN NE AS 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING IS UNDERWAY.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM
THE LAPS/SPC SUGGEST SBCAPES WERE CLOSE TO 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40KTS. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION HAS
ALLOWED FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION AND PER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE RECENT
UPDATE. AS OF THE TIME OF THIS AFD...2 INCH HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED
/SEE LSR FOR DETAILS/ WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HUDSON RIVER/SCHOHARIE VALLEYS. FOR PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS AND CENTRAL-WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...DEWPOINTS ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF FALLING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SO NO
WATCH FOR THESE AREAS...YET EMBEDDED WITH THE DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION WHERE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST. SO MAIN
UPDATE WAS FOR THE WATCH...HOURLY TRENDS AND RAISE DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DAY AS
ADDIITONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND OR SMALL HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR. HAVE ADDRESSED
THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONIFIDENCE TO TIME
INDIVIDUALS STORMS AT ANY TAF SITE. MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS 18Z-23Z.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 041434
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1034 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY SOME OF WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.

GOING INTO THE ENVIRONMENT: HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES OFFSHORE
PUSHED OUT TO SEA BY THIS MORNINGS WEATHER. BUT EXPECTING A
REBOUND INTO AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SE.
HEIGHTS DO STILL RISE WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS AND THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT ACCOMPANYING SUBSIDENCE COULD SQUASH ACTIVITY
AS THE WATER VAPOR LOOP HAS A DRY-SLOT SWEEPING IN...BUT DESPITE
THIS THERE IS A STRONG PUSH OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY PER THE LATEST
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK THAT
YIELDS A DECENT SW LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING HIGHER THETA-E AND
INSTABILITY BACK ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND AND NEIGHBORING CENTRAL-
INTERIOR LOCALES. PWATS OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES NW TO SE TOWARDS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER THETA-E.

FOCUS ON AREAS WHEREVER THERE IS A NOSE OF CONVERGENCE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW / WHEREVER THE ENVIRONMENT CAN DESTABILIZE / AWAY
FROM THE DRY PUNCH PER WATER VAPOR TO THE W. SO ROUGHLY PUT THERE
IS FOCUS OVER THE E-HALF OF NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THE SE TOWARDS THE
MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON HOURS.

DECENT LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITHIN WHICH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR EXCEEDS 50 KTS. SOME TURNING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL 0-1/0-3 KM
PROFILE PER LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...OTHERWISE UNI-DIRECTIONAL
SW TO NE SHEAR.

A FINAL WORD...NOTE THE ENVIRONMENT FROM THE 12Z ALBANY SOUNDING
AND THAT OF CHATHAM! MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2K J/KG SO LONG AS WE
CAN MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS EXPECTED. NOTE ALSO THE
SHEAR PROFILE THAT WAS OBSERVED AS ROUGHLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE.
ALREADY SEEING SPC MESOANALYSIS BECOMING ROBUST WITH MUCAPE VALUES
OF 2K J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50 KTS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6.5C/KM. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO WARM US UP INTO THE 80S WITH SOME
LOCALES NEAR 90.

SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS WITH PRIORITIZED THREATS OF THE
FOLLOWING: HEAVY RAIN / FREQUENT LIGHTNING / URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING ISSUES / STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / SMALL HAIL.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
THIS EVENING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUATION OF
T-STORM RISK MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW AND CONVECTION SHIFTS S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER...MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...OR EVEN IN THE 50S ACROSS NW MA.

WEDNESDAY...
CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINED WITH H5 TEMPS ABNORMALLY COLD...AROUND -13C. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE S...BUT ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ROTATING THROUGH TO THE N. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH THE VERY COLD H5
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A RISK FOR HAIL AS WELL. KEY WILL BE HOW
MUCH DRY AIR BUILDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...BUT SOME LOW CHANCE
OR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO REFLECT THE RISK.
WARMER TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE...MAINLY THE LOW-MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN TREND...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES LATE THIS
WEEK. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE BULLISH
THAN THE GFS...AND HAS A FASTER TIMING AS WELL. THE GFS ALSO HAS A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME...EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE
PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DEVELOP. IN GENERAL THOUGH...
EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

15Z UPDATE...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING TOWARDS MIDDAY GOING W TO E INTO THE EVENING
HRS. STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. +RA WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL. BRIEF MVFR / IFR CONDITIONS WITH TSRA.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 25-30 KT
AT TIMES. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 45 KT IN AND NEAR THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW SEAS...WHICH ARE ALREADY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT ON THE S WATERS
TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT BY THE EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CURRENTLY OUT REFLECT THIS...SO NO CHANGES.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS/SHOWERS...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...SO EXPECT THESE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES TO GRADUALLY BE DROPPED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS
LIKELY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 041152
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
752 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE.
DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
745 AM UPDATE...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF MA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE MA COASTAL WATERS...FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS
OR SO. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION...MAINLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN PA AND SE NY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES THE NE...WHERE DRY AIR AND SOME SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
LIMIT THE CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES. ONLY SOME SHOWERS JUST NOW
ENTERING THE LOWER CT VALLEY. STRONGER STORMS ARE STAYING TO THE
S...MAINLY WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE PER LATEST MESO-
ANALYSIS. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER...OR MAINLY AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE W SUSPECT MOST OF THE MORNING TO REMAIN
QUIET.

THE REST OF THE DAY...STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AT ODDS IS
THE ABILITY TO GENERATE SFC INSTABILITY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM ABOUT 14Z - 22Z. UPPER LVL INSTABILITY IS LIKELY
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MOIST NAM AND THE DRIER GFS...BUT WITH A
MODIFIED EML AND 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 2000J/KG OF MU
CAPE...THERE IS PLENTY AVAILABLE. SHEAR INCREASES AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AS WELL. SREF PROBS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MUCAPES GREATER THANK 2000/SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE REGION...WHERE
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. THE SFC CONNECTION...WILL BE
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEAKENED CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS SE
MASS. LATEST QPF ON MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT BETTER DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY IN SPITE OF THE EARLY CLOUD
COVER...THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS...AND BE
ADDING ENHANCED/SEVERE WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE.

SOME DRY AIR AT THE SFC...AND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT STRONG WINDS AND
DOWNDRAFTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME HAIL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM SHOWS HAIL CAPES APPROACHING 500+. PWATS INCREASING TO
NEAR 2.0 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN...BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING. SHEAR ALSO HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
WEAK TORNADO...REFLECTING CURRENT THINKING BY SPC.
THEREFORE...STAY TUNED TO UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DWPTS IN THE UPPER 6OS TO NEAR 70. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
THIS EVENING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUATION OF
T-STORM RISK MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW AND CONVECTION SHIFTS S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER...MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...OR EVEN IN THE 50S ACROSS NW MA.

WEDNESDAY...
CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINED WITH H5 TEMPS ABNORMALLY COLD...AROUND -13C. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE S...BUT ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ROTATING THROUGH TO THE N. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH THE VERY COLD H5
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A RISK FOR HAIL AS WELL. KEY WILL BE HOW
MUCH DRY AIR BUILDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...BUT SOME LOW CHANCE
OR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO REFLECT THE RISK.
WARMER TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE...MAINLY THE LOW-MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN TREND...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES LATE THIS
WEEK. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE BULLISH
THAN THE GFS...AND HAS A FASTER TIMING AS WELL. THE GFS ALSO HAS A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME...EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE
PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DEVELOP. IN GENERAL THOUGH...
EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECTING
MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP MID DAY...AND CONTINUE
FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 25-30 KT AT TIMES. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 45 KT IN AND
NEAR THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS...WHICH ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT ON THE S WATERS TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT BY THE EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CURRENTLY OUT REFLECT THIS...SO NO CHANGES.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...SO
EXPECT THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO GRADUALLY BE DROPPED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS
LIKELY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 041152
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
752 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE.
DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
745 AM UPDATE...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF MA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE MA COASTAL WATERS...FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS
OR SO. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION...MAINLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN PA AND SE NY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES THE NE...WHERE DRY AIR AND SOME SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
LIMIT THE CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES. ONLY SOME SHOWERS JUST NOW
ENTERING THE LOWER CT VALLEY. STRONGER STORMS ARE STAYING TO THE
S...MAINLY WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE PER LATEST MESO-
ANALYSIS. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER...OR MAINLY AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE W SUSPECT MOST OF THE MORNING TO REMAIN
QUIET.

THE REST OF THE DAY...STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AT ODDS IS
THE ABILITY TO GENERATE SFC INSTABILITY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM ABOUT 14Z - 22Z. UPPER LVL INSTABILITY IS LIKELY
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MOIST NAM AND THE DRIER GFS...BUT WITH A
MODIFIED EML AND 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 2000J/KG OF MU
CAPE...THERE IS PLENTY AVAILABLE. SHEAR INCREASES AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AS WELL. SREF PROBS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MUCAPES GREATER THANK 2000/SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE REGION...WHERE
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. THE SFC CONNECTION...WILL BE
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEAKENED CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS SE
MASS. LATEST QPF ON MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT BETTER DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY IN SPITE OF THE EARLY CLOUD
COVER...THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS...AND BE
ADDING ENHANCED/SEVERE WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE.

SOME DRY AIR AT THE SFC...AND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT STRONG WINDS AND
DOWNDRAFTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME HAIL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM SHOWS HAIL CAPES APPROACHING 500+. PWATS INCREASING TO
NEAR 2.0 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN...BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING. SHEAR ALSO HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
WEAK TORNADO...REFLECTING CURRENT THINKING BY SPC.
THEREFORE...STAY TUNED TO UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DWPTS IN THE UPPER 6OS TO NEAR 70. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
THIS EVENING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUATION OF
T-STORM RISK MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW AND CONVECTION SHIFTS S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER...MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...OR EVEN IN THE 50S ACROSS NW MA.

WEDNESDAY...
CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINED WITH H5 TEMPS ABNORMALLY COLD...AROUND -13C. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE S...BUT ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ROTATING THROUGH TO THE N. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH THE VERY COLD H5
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A RISK FOR HAIL AS WELL. KEY WILL BE HOW
MUCH DRY AIR BUILDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...BUT SOME LOW CHANCE
OR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO REFLECT THE RISK.
WARMER TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE...MAINLY THE LOW-MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN TREND...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES LATE THIS
WEEK. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE BULLISH
THAN THE GFS...AND HAS A FASTER TIMING AS WELL. THE GFS ALSO HAS A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME...EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE
PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DEVELOP. IN GENERAL THOUGH...
EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECTING
MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP MID DAY...AND CONTINUE
FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 25-30 KT AT TIMES. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 45 KT IN AND
NEAR THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS...WHICH ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT ON THE S WATERS TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT BY THE EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CURRENTLY OUT REFLECT THIS...SO NO CHANGES.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...SO
EXPECT THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO GRADUALLY BE DROPPED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS
LIKELY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 041152
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
752 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE.
DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
745 AM UPDATE...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF MA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE MA COASTAL WATERS...FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS
OR SO. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION...MAINLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN PA AND SE NY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES THE NE...WHERE DRY AIR AND SOME SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
LIMIT THE CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES. ONLY SOME SHOWERS JUST NOW
ENTERING THE LOWER CT VALLEY. STRONGER STORMS ARE STAYING TO THE
S...MAINLY WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE PER LATEST MESO-
ANALYSIS. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER...OR MAINLY AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE W SUSPECT MOST OF THE MORNING TO REMAIN
QUIET.

THE REST OF THE DAY...STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AT ODDS IS
THE ABILITY TO GENERATE SFC INSTABILITY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM ABOUT 14Z - 22Z. UPPER LVL INSTABILITY IS LIKELY
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MOIST NAM AND THE DRIER GFS...BUT WITH A
MODIFIED EML AND 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 2000J/KG OF MU
CAPE...THERE IS PLENTY AVAILABLE. SHEAR INCREASES AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AS WELL. SREF PROBS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MUCAPES GREATER THANK 2000/SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE REGION...WHERE
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. THE SFC CONNECTION...WILL BE
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEAKENED CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS SE
MASS. LATEST QPF ON MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT BETTER DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY IN SPITE OF THE EARLY CLOUD
COVER...THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS...AND BE
ADDING ENHANCED/SEVERE WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE.

SOME DRY AIR AT THE SFC...AND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT STRONG WINDS AND
DOWNDRAFTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME HAIL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM SHOWS HAIL CAPES APPROACHING 500+. PWATS INCREASING TO
NEAR 2.0 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN...BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING. SHEAR ALSO HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
WEAK TORNADO...REFLECTING CURRENT THINKING BY SPC.
THEREFORE...STAY TUNED TO UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DWPTS IN THE UPPER 6OS TO NEAR 70. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
THIS EVENING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUATION OF
T-STORM RISK MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW AND CONVECTION SHIFTS S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER...MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...OR EVEN IN THE 50S ACROSS NW MA.

WEDNESDAY...
CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINED WITH H5 TEMPS ABNORMALLY COLD...AROUND -13C. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE S...BUT ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ROTATING THROUGH TO THE N. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH THE VERY COLD H5
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A RISK FOR HAIL AS WELL. KEY WILL BE HOW
MUCH DRY AIR BUILDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...BUT SOME LOW CHANCE
OR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO REFLECT THE RISK.
WARMER TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE...MAINLY THE LOW-MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN TREND...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES LATE THIS
WEEK. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE BULLISH
THAN THE GFS...AND HAS A FASTER TIMING AS WELL. THE GFS ALSO HAS A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME...EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE
PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DEVELOP. IN GENERAL THOUGH...
EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECTING
MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP MID DAY...AND CONTINUE
FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 25-30 KT AT TIMES. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 45 KT IN AND
NEAR THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS...WHICH ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT ON THE S WATERS TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT BY THE EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CURRENTLY OUT REFLECT THIS...SO NO CHANGES.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...SO
EXPECT THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO GRADUALLY BE DROPPED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS
LIKELY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 041152
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
752 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE.
DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
745 AM UPDATE...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF MA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE MA COASTAL WATERS...FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS
OR SO. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION...MAINLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN PA AND SE NY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES THE NE...WHERE DRY AIR AND SOME SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
LIMIT THE CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES. ONLY SOME SHOWERS JUST NOW
ENTERING THE LOWER CT VALLEY. STRONGER STORMS ARE STAYING TO THE
S...MAINLY WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE PER LATEST MESO-
ANALYSIS. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER...OR MAINLY AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE W SUSPECT MOST OF THE MORNING TO REMAIN
QUIET.

THE REST OF THE DAY...STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AT ODDS IS
THE ABILITY TO GENERATE SFC INSTABILITY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM ABOUT 14Z - 22Z. UPPER LVL INSTABILITY IS LIKELY
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MOIST NAM AND THE DRIER GFS...BUT WITH A
MODIFIED EML AND 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 2000J/KG OF MU
CAPE...THERE IS PLENTY AVAILABLE. SHEAR INCREASES AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AS WELL. SREF PROBS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MUCAPES GREATER THANK 2000/SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE REGION...WHERE
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. THE SFC CONNECTION...WILL BE
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEAKENED CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS SE
MASS. LATEST QPF ON MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT BETTER DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY IN SPITE OF THE EARLY CLOUD
COVER...THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS...AND BE
ADDING ENHANCED/SEVERE WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE.

SOME DRY AIR AT THE SFC...AND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT STRONG WINDS AND
DOWNDRAFTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME HAIL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM SHOWS HAIL CAPES APPROACHING 500+. PWATS INCREASING TO
NEAR 2.0 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN...BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING. SHEAR ALSO HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
WEAK TORNADO...REFLECTING CURRENT THINKING BY SPC.
THEREFORE...STAY TUNED TO UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DWPTS IN THE UPPER 6OS TO NEAR 70. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
THIS EVENING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUATION OF
T-STORM RISK MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW AND CONVECTION SHIFTS S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER...MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...OR EVEN IN THE 50S ACROSS NW MA.

WEDNESDAY...
CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINED WITH H5 TEMPS ABNORMALLY COLD...AROUND -13C. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE S...BUT ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ROTATING THROUGH TO THE N. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH THE VERY COLD H5
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A RISK FOR HAIL AS WELL. KEY WILL BE HOW
MUCH DRY AIR BUILDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...BUT SOME LOW CHANCE
OR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO REFLECT THE RISK.
WARMER TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE...MAINLY THE LOW-MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN TREND...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES LATE THIS
WEEK. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE BULLISH
THAN THE GFS...AND HAS A FASTER TIMING AS WELL. THE GFS ALSO HAS A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME...EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE
PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DEVELOP. IN GENERAL THOUGH...
EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECTING
MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP MID DAY...AND CONTINUE
FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 25-30 KT AT TIMES. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 45 KT IN AND
NEAR THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS...WHICH ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT ON THE S WATERS TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT BY THE EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CURRENTLY OUT REFLECT THIS...SO NO CHANGES.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...SO
EXPECT THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO GRADUALLY BE DROPPED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS
LIKELY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KALY 041138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY
AS DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GRADUALLY TOWARD THE
COAST AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STORMS ALREADY OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY TODAY WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES HAVE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY FOR
DUTCHESS...COLUMBIA...LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WARM
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTER CONNECTICUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DAY AS
ADDIITONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND OR SMALL HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR. HAVE ADDRESSED
THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONIFIDENCE TO TIME
INDIVIDUALS STORMS AT ANY TAF SITE. MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS 18Z-23Z.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 041138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY
AS DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GRADUALLY TOWARD THE
COAST AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STORMS ALREADY OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY TODAY WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES HAVE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY FOR
DUTCHESS...COLUMBIA...LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WARM
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTER CONNECTICUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DAY AS
ADDIITONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND OR SMALL HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR. HAVE ADDRESSED
THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONIFIDENCE TO TIME
INDIVIDUALS STORMS AT ANY TAF SITE. MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS 18Z-23Z.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 041138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY
AS DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GRADUALLY TOWARD THE
COAST AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STORMS ALREADY OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY TODAY WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES HAVE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY FOR
DUTCHESS...COLUMBIA...LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WARM
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTER CONNECTICUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DAY AS
ADDIITONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND OR SMALL HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR. HAVE ADDRESSED
THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONIFIDENCE TO TIME
INDIVIDUALS STORMS AT ANY TAF SITE. MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS 18Z-23Z.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 041138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY
AS DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GRADUALLY TOWARD THE
COAST AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STORMS ALREADY OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY TODAY WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES HAVE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY FOR
DUTCHESS...COLUMBIA...LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WARM
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTER CONNECTICUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DAY AS
ADDIITONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND OR SMALL HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR. HAVE ADDRESSED
THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONIFIDENCE TO TIME
INDIVIDUALS STORMS AT ANY TAF SITE. MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS 18Z-23Z.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 041138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY
AS DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GRADUALLY TOWARD THE
COAST AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STORMS ALREADY OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY TODAY WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES HAVE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY FOR
DUTCHESS...COLUMBIA...LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WARM
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTER CONNECTICUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DAY AS
ADDIITONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND OR SMALL HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR. HAVE ADDRESSED
THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONIFIDENCE TO TIME
INDIVIDUALS STORMS AT ANY TAF SITE. MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS 18Z-23Z.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 040928
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
528 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR
LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE
ABOUT AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES HAVE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY FOR
DUTCHESS...COLUMBIA...LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
WARM ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTER CONNECTICUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AS
CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE
TO FOG AND STRATUS SINCE THE WINDS ARE CALM AND THE GROUND
DAMP/WET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT
WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN ALL TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT- SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 040928
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
528 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR
LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE
ABOUT AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES HAVE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY FOR
DUTCHESS...COLUMBIA...LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
WARM ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTER CONNECTICUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AS
CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE
TO FOG AND STRATUS SINCE THE WINDS ARE CALM AND THE GROUND
DAMP/WET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT
WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN ALL TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT- SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 040928
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
528 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR
LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE
ABOUT AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES HAVE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY FOR
DUTCHESS...COLUMBIA...LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
WARM ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTER CONNECTICUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AS
CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE
TO FOG AND STRATUS SINCE THE WINDS ARE CALM AND THE GROUND
DAMP/WET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT
WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN ALL TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT- SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 040928
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
528 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR
LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE
ABOUT AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES HAVE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY FOR
DUTCHESS...COLUMBIA...LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
WARM ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTER CONNECTICUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AS
CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE
TO FOG AND STRATUS SINCE THE WINDS ARE CALM AND THE GROUND
DAMP/WET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT
WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN ALL TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT- SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 040928
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
528 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR
LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE
ABOUT AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES HAVE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY FOR
DUTCHESS...COLUMBIA...LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
WARM ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTER CONNECTICUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AS
CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE
TO FOG AND STRATUS SINCE THE WINDS ARE CALM AND THE GROUND
DAMP/WET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT
WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN ALL TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT- SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 040928
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
528 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR
LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE
ABOUT AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES HAVE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY FOR
DUTCHESS...COLUMBIA...LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
WARM ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTER CONNECTICUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AS
CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASES MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE
TO FOG AND STRATUS SINCE THE WINDS ARE CALM AND THE GROUND
DAMP/WET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT
WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN ALL TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT- SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 040911
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
511 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE
IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE
ABOUT AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES HAVE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY FOR
DUTCHESS...COLUMBIA...LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
WARM ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTER CONNECTICUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMING SOON...

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTHEN AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE
WEEK CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER
THE EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW.
AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AS
CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASES MVFR-FR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO
FOG AND STRATUS SINCE THE WINDS ARE CALM AND THE GROUND DAMP/WET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT
WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN ALL TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT- SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
LIKELY FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 040911
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
511 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE
IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE
ABOUT AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES HAVE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY FOR
DUTCHESS...COLUMBIA...LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
WARM ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTER CONNECTICUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMING SOON...

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTHEN AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE
WEEK CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER
THE EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW.
AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AS
CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASES MVFR-FR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO
FOG AND STRATUS SINCE THE WINDS ARE CALM AND THE GROUND DAMP/WET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT
WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN ALL TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT- SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
LIKELY FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 040911
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
511 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE
IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE
ABOUT AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES HAVE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY FOR
DUTCHESS...COLUMBIA...LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
WARM ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTER CONNECTICUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMING SOON...

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTHEN AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE
WEEK CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER
THE EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW.
AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AS
CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASES MVFR-FR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO
FOG AND STRATUS SINCE THE WINDS ARE CALM AND THE GROUND DAMP/WET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT
WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN ALL TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT- SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
LIKELY FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 040911
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
511 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE
IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE
ABOUT AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES HAVE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY FOR
DUTCHESS...COLUMBIA...LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
WARM ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTER CONNECTICUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMING SOON...

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTHEN AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE
WEEK CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER
THE EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW.
AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AS
CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASES MVFR-FR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO
FOG AND STRATUS SINCE THE WINDS ARE CALM AND THE GROUND DAMP/WET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT
WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN ALL TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT- SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
LIKELY FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 040911
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
511 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE
IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE
ABOUT AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES HAVE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY FOR
DUTCHESS...COLUMBIA...LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
WARM ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTER CONNECTICUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMING SOON...

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTHEN AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE
WEEK CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER
THE EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW.
AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AS
CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASES MVFR-FR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO
FOG AND STRATUS SINCE THE WINDS ARE CALM AND THE GROUND DAMP/WET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT
WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN ALL TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT- SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
LIKELY FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 040911
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
511 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE
IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE
ABOUT AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES HAVE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY FOR
DUTCHESS...COLUMBIA...LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
WARM ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTER CONNECTICUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMING SOON...

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTHEN AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE
WEEK CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER
THE EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW.
AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED LOW
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AS
CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASES MVFR-FR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO
FOG AND STRATUS SINCE THE WINDS ARE CALM AND THE GROUND DAMP/WET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT
WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN ALL TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT- SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
LIKELY FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 040856
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE.
DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN PA AND SE NY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES THE NE...WHERE DRY AIR AND SOME SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
LIMIT THE CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES. ONLY SOME SHOWERS JUST NOW
ENTERING THE LOWER CT VALLEY. STRONGER STORMS ARE STAYING TO THE
S...MAINLY WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE PER LATEST MESO-
ANALYSIS. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER...OR MAINLY AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE W SUSPECT MOST OF THE MORNING TO REMAIN
QUIET.

THE REST OF THE DAY...STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AT ODDS IS
THE ABILITY TO GENERATE SFC INSTABILITY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM ABOUT 14Z - 22Z. UPPER LVL INSTABILITY IS LIKELY
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MOIST NAM AND THE DRIER GFS...BUT WITH A
MODIFIED EML AND 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 2000J/KG OF MU
CAPE...THERE IS PLENTY AVAILABLE. SHEAR INCREASES AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AS WELL. SREF PROBS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MUCAPES GREATER THANK 2000/SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE REGION...WHERE
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. THE SFC CONNECTION...WILL BE
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEAKENED CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS SE
MASS. LATEST QPF ON MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT BETTER DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY IN SPITE OF THE EARLY CLOUD
COVER...THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS...AND BE
ADDING ENHANCED/SEVERE WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE.

SOME DRY AIR AT THE SFC...AND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT STRONG WINDS AND
DOWNDRAFTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME HAIL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM SHOWS HAIL CAPES APPROACHING 500+. PWATS INCREASING TO
NEAR 2.0 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN...BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING. SHEAR ALSO HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
WEAK TORNADO...REFLECTING CURRENT THINKING BY SPC.
THEREFORE...STAY TUNED TO UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DWPTS IN THE UPPER 6OS TO NEAR 70. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
THIS EVENING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUATION OF
T-STORM RISK MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW AND CONVECTION SHIFTS S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER...MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...OR EVEN IN THE 50S ACROSS NW MA.

WEDNESDAY...
CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINED WITH H5 TEMPS ABNORMALLY COLD...AROUND -13C. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE S...BUT ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ROTATING THROUGH TO THE N. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH THE VERY COLD H5
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A RISK FOR HAIL AS WELL. KEY WILL BE HOW
MUCH DRY AIR BUILDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...BUT SOME LOW CHANCE
OR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO REFLECT THE RISK.
WARMER TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE...MAINLY THE LOW-MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN TREND...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES LATE THIS
WEEK. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE BULLISH
THAN THE GFS...AND HAS A FASTER TIMING AS WELL. THE GFS ALSO HAS A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME...EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE
PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DEVELOP. IN GENERAL THOUGH...
EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME LEFTOVER SHRA/TSTMS MOVING
THROUGH NY/PA WHICH MAY IMPACT MAINLY CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MID DAY AND CONTINUE...FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 25-30 KT AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS...WHICH ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT ON THE S WATERS TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT BY THE EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CURRENTLY OUT REFLECT THIS...SO NO CHANGES.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...SO
EXPECT THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO GRADUALLY BE DROPPED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS
LIKELY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040856
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE.
DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN PA AND SE NY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES THE NE...WHERE DRY AIR AND SOME SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
LIMIT THE CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES. ONLY SOME SHOWERS JUST NOW
ENTERING THE LOWER CT VALLEY. STRONGER STORMS ARE STAYING TO THE
S...MAINLY WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE PER LATEST MESO-
ANALYSIS. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER...OR MAINLY AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE W SUSPECT MOST OF THE MORNING TO REMAIN
QUIET.

THE REST OF THE DAY...STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AT ODDS IS
THE ABILITY TO GENERATE SFC INSTABILITY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM ABOUT 14Z - 22Z. UPPER LVL INSTABILITY IS LIKELY
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MOIST NAM AND THE DRIER GFS...BUT WITH A
MODIFIED EML AND 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 2000J/KG OF MU
CAPE...THERE IS PLENTY AVAILABLE. SHEAR INCREASES AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AS WELL. SREF PROBS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MUCAPES GREATER THANK 2000/SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE REGION...WHERE
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. THE SFC CONNECTION...WILL BE
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEAKENED CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS SE
MASS. LATEST QPF ON MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT BETTER DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY IN SPITE OF THE EARLY CLOUD
COVER...THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS...AND BE
ADDING ENHANCED/SEVERE WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE.

SOME DRY AIR AT THE SFC...AND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT STRONG WINDS AND
DOWNDRAFTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME HAIL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM SHOWS HAIL CAPES APPROACHING 500+. PWATS INCREASING TO
NEAR 2.0 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN...BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING. SHEAR ALSO HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
WEAK TORNADO...REFLECTING CURRENT THINKING BY SPC.
THEREFORE...STAY TUNED TO UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DWPTS IN THE UPPER 6OS TO NEAR 70. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
THIS EVENING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUATION OF
T-STORM RISK MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW AND CONVECTION SHIFTS S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER...MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...OR EVEN IN THE 50S ACROSS NW MA.

WEDNESDAY...
CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINED WITH H5 TEMPS ABNORMALLY COLD...AROUND -13C. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE S...BUT ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ROTATING THROUGH TO THE N. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH THE VERY COLD H5
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A RISK FOR HAIL AS WELL. KEY WILL BE HOW
MUCH DRY AIR BUILDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...BUT SOME LOW CHANCE
OR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO REFLECT THE RISK.
WARMER TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE...MAINLY THE LOW-MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON
THE DETAILS THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN TREND...WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...MOVING INTO THE MARITIMES LATE THIS
WEEK. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE BULLISH
THAN THE GFS...AND HAS A FASTER TIMING AS WELL. THE GFS ALSO HAS A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME...EXPECTING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE
PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DEVELOP. IN GENERAL THOUGH...
EXPECTING DRIER WEATHER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME LEFTOVER SHRA/TSTMS MOVING
THROUGH NY/PA WHICH MAY IMPACT MAINLY CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MID DAY AND CONTINUE...FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 25-30 KT AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS...WHICH ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT ON THE S WATERS TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT BY THE EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CURRENTLY OUT REFLECT THIS...SO NO CHANGES.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...SO
EXPECT THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO GRADUALLY BE DROPPED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS
LIKELY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 040804
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE.
DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN PA AND SE NY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES THE NE...WHERE DRY AIR AND SOME SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
LIMIT THE CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES. ONLY SOME SHOWERS JUST NOW
ENTERING THE LOWER CT VALLEY. STRONGER STORMS ARE STAYING TO THE
S...MAINLY WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE PER LATEST MESO-
ANALYSIS. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER...OR MAINLY AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE W SUSPECT MOST OF THE MORNING TO REMAIN
QUIET.

THE REST OF THE DAY...STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AT ODDS IS
THE ABILITY TO GENERATE SFC INSTABILITY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM ABOUT 14Z - 22Z. UPPER LVL INSTABILITY IS LIKELY
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MOIST NAM AND THE DRIER GFS...BUT WITH A
MODIFIED EML AND 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 2000J/KG OF MU
CAPE...THERE IS PLENTY AVAILABLE. SHEAR INCREASES AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AS WELL. SREF PROBS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MUCAPES GREATER THANK 2000/SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE REGION...WHERE
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. THE SFC CONNECTION...WILL BE
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEAKENED CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS SE
MASS. LATEST QPF ON MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT BETTER DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY IN SPITE OF THE EARLY CLOUD
COVER...THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS...AND BE
ADDING ENHANCED/SEVERE WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE.

SOME DRY AIR AT THE SFC...AND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT STRONG WINDS AND
DOWNDRAFTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME HAIL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM SHOWS HAIL CAPES APPROACHING 500+. PWATS INCREASING TO
NEAR 2.0 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN...BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING. SHEAR ALSO HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
WEAK TORNADO...REFLECTING CURRENT THINKING BY SPC.
THEREFORE...STAY TUNED TO UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DWPTS IN THE UPPER 6OS TO NEAR 70. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
THIS EVENING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUATION OF
T-STORM RISK MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW AND CONVECTION SHIFTS S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER...MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...OR EVEN IN THE 50S ACROSS NW MA.

WEDNESDAY...
CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINED WITH H5 TEMPS ABNORMALLY COLD...AROUND -13C. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE S...BUT ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ROTATING THROUGH TO THE N. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH THE VERY COLD H5
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A RISK FOR HAIL AS WELL. KEY WILL BE HOW
MUCH DRY AIR BUILDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...BUT SOME LOW CHANCE
OR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO REFLECT THE RISK.
WARMER TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE...MAINLY THE LOW-MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME LEFTOVER SHRA/TSTMS MOVING
THROUGH NY/PA WHICH MAY IMPACT MAINLY CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MID DAY AND CONTINUE...FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 25-30 KT AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS...WHICH ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT ON THE S WATERS TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT BY THE EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CURRENTLY OUT REFLECT THIS...SO NO CHANGES.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...SO
EXPECT THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO GRADUALLY BE DROPPED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 040804
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OF THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE.
DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN PA AND SE NY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES THE NE...WHERE DRY AIR AND SOME SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO
LIMIT THE CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES. ONLY SOME SHOWERS JUST NOW
ENTERING THE LOWER CT VALLEY. STRONGER STORMS ARE STAYING TO THE
S...MAINLY WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE PER LATEST MESO-
ANALYSIS. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF A SHOWER...OR MAINLY AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE W SUSPECT MOST OF THE MORNING TO REMAIN
QUIET.

THE REST OF THE DAY...STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AT ODDS IS
THE ABILITY TO GENERATE SFC INSTABILITY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM ABOUT 14Z - 22Z. UPPER LVL INSTABILITY IS LIKELY
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MOIST NAM AND THE DRIER GFS...BUT WITH A
MODIFIED EML AND 6.0-7.0C/KM LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 2000J/KG OF MU
CAPE...THERE IS PLENTY AVAILABLE. SHEAR INCREASES AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AS WELL. SREF PROBS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MUCAPES GREATER THANK 2000/SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE REGION...WHERE
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. THE SFC CONNECTION...WILL BE
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEAKENED CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS SE
MASS. LATEST QPF ON MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT BETTER DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY IN SPITE OF THE EARLY CLOUD
COVER...THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS...AND BE
ADDING ENHANCED/SEVERE WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE.

SOME DRY AIR AT THE SFC...AND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT STRONG WINDS AND
DOWNDRAFTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME HAIL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN NAM SHOWS HAIL CAPES APPROACHING 500+. PWATS INCREASING TO
NEAR 2.0 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN...BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE MOVING. SHEAR ALSO HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE RISK OF A
WEAK TORNADO...REFLECTING CURRENT THINKING BY SPC.
THEREFORE...STAY TUNED TO UPDATES THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH DWPTS IN THE UPPER 6OS TO NEAR 70. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
THIS EVENING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUATION OF
T-STORM RISK MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NW AND CONVECTION SHIFTS S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER...MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...OR EVEN IN THE 50S ACROSS NW MA.

WEDNESDAY...
CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINED WITH H5 TEMPS ABNORMALLY COLD...AROUND -13C. STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE S...BUT ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE ROTATING THROUGH TO THE N. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCT
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH THE VERY COLD H5
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A RISK FOR HAIL AS WELL. KEY WILL BE HOW
MUCH DRY AIR BUILDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. NOT EXPECTING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY...BUT SOME LOW CHANCE
OR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TO REFLECT THE RISK.
WARMER TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE...MAINLY THE LOW-MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME LEFTOVER SHRA/TSTMS MOVING
THROUGH NY/PA WHICH MAY IMPACT MAINLY CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MID DAY AND CONTINUE...FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING 25-30 KT AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS...WHICH ARE
ALREADY RUNNING AROUND 5 FT ON THE S WATERS TO INCREASE...POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 7 FT BY THE EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CURRENTLY OUT REFLECT THIS...SO NO CHANGES.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS/SHOWERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...SO
EXPECT THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO GRADUALLY BE DROPPED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 040609
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
209 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED
LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED
LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION AT TAF
SITES...KALB...KPSF AND KPOU...WITH VCSH.

AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DUE TO FOG SINCE THE WINDS ARE CALM AND THE GROUND DAMP/WET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT
WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN ALL TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 040609
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
209 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED
LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED
LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION AT TAF
SITES...KALB...KPSF AND KPOU...WITH VCSH.

AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DUE TO FOG SINCE THE WINDS ARE CALM AND THE GROUND DAMP/WET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT
WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN ALL TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 040609
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
209 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED
LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED
LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION AT TAF
SITES...KALB...KPSF AND KPOU...WITH VCSH.

AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DUE TO FOG SINCE THE WINDS ARE CALM AND THE GROUND DAMP/WET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT
WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN ALL TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 040609
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
209 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED
LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING ABOUT THE BASE ON THE CLOSED
LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION AT TAF
SITES...KALB...KPSF AND KPOU...WITH VCSH.

AS CLOUD COVER DECREASES MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DUE TO FOG SINCE THE WINDS ARE CALM AND THE GROUND DAMP/WET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT
WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN ALL TAFS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ANY CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY BY LATE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 040540
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH BULK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ROLL NW OF THE
REGION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WHICH CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THE
NEXT ROUND TO WATCH WILL BE THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION COLOCATED
WITH A SECONDARY TROF ACROSS PA AND SE NY. WITH THE MODIFIED EML
SETTLING FURTHER E AND INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
/SOMETHING WE WERE LACKING MOST OF THE DAY/...PLUS A SLIGHT UP-
TICK IN SHEAR WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES E
INTO NY/SNE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TYPICAL RIGHT-TURN AS THE CONVECTION DIVES
S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY WHILE OTHERS LEAVE THE STEERING FLOW
IN CONTROL...TAKING IT ACROSS CT/SE MASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA PRIMARILY WHILE LOWERING THEM SOMEWHAT ELSEWHERE. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOUR
CONVECTION SURVIVES WITH LITTLE SFC BASED SUPPORT.
OTHERWISE...MILD...MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME LEFTOVER SHRA/TSTMS MOVING
THROUGH NY/PA WHICH MAY IMPACT MAINLY CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MID DAY AND CONTINUE...FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040540
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH BULK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ROLL NW OF THE
REGION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WHICH CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THE
NEXT ROUND TO WATCH WILL BE THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION COLOCATED
WITH A SECONDARY TROF ACROSS PA AND SE NY. WITH THE MODIFIED EML
SETTLING FURTHER E AND INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
/SOMETHING WE WERE LACKING MOST OF THE DAY/...PLUS A SLIGHT UP-
TICK IN SHEAR WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES E
INTO NY/SNE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TYPICAL RIGHT-TURN AS THE CONVECTION DIVES
S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY WHILE OTHERS LEAVE THE STEERING FLOW
IN CONTROL...TAKING IT ACROSS CT/SE MASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA PRIMARILY WHILE LOWERING THEM SOMEWHAT ELSEWHERE. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOUR
CONVECTION SURVIVES WITH LITTLE SFC BASED SUPPORT.
OTHERWISE...MILD...MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME LEFTOVER SHRA/TSTMS MOVING
THROUGH NY/PA WHICH MAY IMPACT MAINLY CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MID DAY AND CONTINUE...FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040540
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH BULK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ROLL NW OF THE
REGION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WHICH CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THE
NEXT ROUND TO WATCH WILL BE THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION COLOCATED
WITH A SECONDARY TROF ACROSS PA AND SE NY. WITH THE MODIFIED EML
SETTLING FURTHER E AND INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
/SOMETHING WE WERE LACKING MOST OF THE DAY/...PLUS A SLIGHT UP-
TICK IN SHEAR WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES E
INTO NY/SNE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TYPICAL RIGHT-TURN AS THE CONVECTION DIVES
S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY WHILE OTHERS LEAVE THE STEERING FLOW
IN CONTROL...TAKING IT ACROSS CT/SE MASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA PRIMARILY WHILE LOWERING THEM SOMEWHAT ELSEWHERE. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOUR
CONVECTION SURVIVES WITH LITTLE SFC BASED SUPPORT.
OTHERWISE...MILD...MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME LEFTOVER SHRA/TSTMS MOVING
THROUGH NY/PA WHICH MAY IMPACT MAINLY CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MID DAY AND CONTINUE...FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040540
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH BULK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ROLL NW OF THE
REGION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WHICH CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THE
NEXT ROUND TO WATCH WILL BE THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION COLOCATED
WITH A SECONDARY TROF ACROSS PA AND SE NY. WITH THE MODIFIED EML
SETTLING FURTHER E AND INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
/SOMETHING WE WERE LACKING MOST OF THE DAY/...PLUS A SLIGHT UP-
TICK IN SHEAR WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES E
INTO NY/SNE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TYPICAL RIGHT-TURN AS THE CONVECTION DIVES
S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY WHILE OTHERS LEAVE THE STEERING FLOW
IN CONTROL...TAKING IT ACROSS CT/SE MASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA PRIMARILY WHILE LOWERING THEM SOMEWHAT ELSEWHERE. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOUR
CONVECTION SURVIVES WITH LITTLE SFC BASED SUPPORT.
OTHERWISE...MILD...MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME LEFTOVER SHRA/TSTMS MOVING
THROUGH NY/PA WHICH MAY IMPACT MAINLY CT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP MID DAY AND CONTINUE...FROM W-E INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER STORMS/RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS THEN POSSIBLE MAINLY N
OF THE MASS PIKE ON WED...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 040257
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1057 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
STILL COULD BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90 AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS
ISSUED ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WE FELT THE
BEST THREAT WAS ALL THE SITES BUT KPOU...SO INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AT ALL THE TAFS BUT KPOU FOR A THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING MAINLY AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR FOG AT KGFL AFTER
08Z...MVFR FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR STRATUS AT THE OTHER SITES.

WE DISSIPATE ALL FOG BY 12Z. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME THE REAL COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT ACTIVE...BUT FOR NOW...DID
INCLUDE A VCSH AT KGFL AFTER 17Z. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE ANY VCSH
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. A THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY BE SOUTH 5-10KTS THIS EVENING...A
LITTLE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SOUTH
WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...AVERAGING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NITE-THU NITE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 040257
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1057 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
STILL COULD BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90 AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS
ISSUED ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WE FELT THE
BEST THREAT WAS ALL THE SITES BUT KPOU...SO INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AT ALL THE TAFS BUT KPOU FOR A THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING MAINLY AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR FOG AT KGFL AFTER
08Z...MVFR FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR STRATUS AT THE OTHER SITES.

WE DISSIPATE ALL FOG BY 12Z. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME THE REAL COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT ACTIVE...BUT FOR NOW...DID
INCLUDE A VCSH AT KGFL AFTER 17Z. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE ANY VCSH
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. A THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY BE SOUTH 5-10KTS THIS EVENING...A
LITTLE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SOUTH
WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...AVERAGING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NITE-THU NITE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 040204
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1004 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH BULK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ROLL NW OF THE
REGION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WHICH CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THE
NEXT ROUND TO WATCH WILL BE THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION COLOCATED
WITH A SECONDARY TROF ACROSS PA AND SE NY. WITH THE MODIFIED EML
SETTLING FURTHER E AND INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
/SOMETHING WE WERE LACKING MOST OF THE DAY/...PLUS A SLIGHT UP-
TICK IN SHEAR WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES E
INTO NY/SNE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TYPICAL RIGHT-TURN AS THE CONVECTION DIVES
S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY WHILE OTHERS LEAVE THE STEERING FLOW
IN CONTROL...TAKING IT ACROSS CT/SE MASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA PRIMARILY WHILE LOWERING THEM SOMEWHAT ELSEWHERE. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOUR
CONVECTION SURVIVES WITH LITTLE SFC BASED SUPPORT.
OTHERWISE...MILD...MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS. SCT -SHRA SWEEP FROM THE W AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA /
+RA AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. PATCHY FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES 20-25 KTS. SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR THOUGH BETTER CHANCES OVER SE NEW ENGLAND INTO EVENING.
OTHER THAN MVFR LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING...
TEMPO MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEATHER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TERMINALS CLEAR OUT W TO E.
PREVAILING VFR WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINAL TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY
OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040204
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1004 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH BULK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ROLL NW OF THE
REGION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROF WHICH CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THE
NEXT ROUND TO WATCH WILL BE THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION COLOCATED
WITH A SECONDARY TROF ACROSS PA AND SE NY. WITH THE MODIFIED EML
SETTLING FURTHER E AND INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
/SOMETHING WE WERE LACKING MOST OF THE DAY/...PLUS A SLIGHT UP-
TICK IN SHEAR WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES E
INTO NY/SNE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TYPICAL RIGHT-TURN AS THE CONVECTION DIVES
S TOWARD BETTER INSTABILITY WHILE OTHERS LEAVE THE STEERING FLOW
IN CONTROL...TAKING IT ACROSS CT/SE MASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS AREA PRIMARILY WHILE LOWERING THEM SOMEWHAT ELSEWHERE. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOUR
CONVECTION SURVIVES WITH LITTLE SFC BASED SUPPORT.
OTHERWISE...MILD...MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS. SCT -SHRA SWEEP FROM THE W AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA /
+RA AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. PATCHY FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES 20-25 KTS. SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR THOUGH BETTER CHANCES OVER SE NEW ENGLAND INTO EVENING.
OTHER THAN MVFR LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING...
TEMPO MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEATHER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TERMINALS CLEAR OUT W TO E.
PREVAILING VFR WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINAL TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY
OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 040026
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
826 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
STILL COULD BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90 AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 730 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WE FELT THE
BEST THREAT WAS ALL THE SITES BUT KPOU...SO INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AT ALL THE TAFS BUT KPOU FOR A THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING MAINLY AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR FOG AT KGFL AFTER
08Z...MVFR FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR STRATUS AT THE OTHER SITES.

WE DISSIPATE ALL FOG BY 12Z. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME THE REAL COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT ACTIVE...BUT FOR NOW...DID
INCLUDE A VCSH AT KGFL AFTER 17Z. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE ANY VCSH
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. A THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY BE SOUTH 5-10KTS THIS EVENING...A
LITTLE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SOUTH
WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...AVERAGING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NITE-THU NITE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 040026
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
826 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
STILL COULD BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90 AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 730 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WE FELT THE
BEST THREAT WAS ALL THE SITES BUT KPOU...SO INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AT ALL THE TAFS BUT KPOU FOR A THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING MAINLY AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR FOG AT KGFL AFTER
08Z...MVFR FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR STRATUS AT THE OTHER SITES.

WE DISSIPATE ALL FOG BY 12Z. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME THE REAL COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT ACTIVE...BUT FOR NOW...DID
INCLUDE A VCSH AT KGFL AFTER 17Z. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE ANY VCSH
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. A THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY BE SOUTH 5-10KTS THIS EVENING...A
LITTLE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SOUTH
WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...AVERAGING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NITE-THU NITE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 040026
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
826 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
STILL COULD BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90 AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 730 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WE FELT THE
BEST THREAT WAS ALL THE SITES BUT KPOU...SO INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AT ALL THE TAFS BUT KPOU FOR A THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING MAINLY AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR FOG AT KGFL AFTER
08Z...MVFR FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR STRATUS AT THE OTHER SITES.

WE DISSIPATE ALL FOG BY 12Z. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME THE REAL COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT ACTIVE...BUT FOR NOW...DID
INCLUDE A VCSH AT KGFL AFTER 17Z. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE ANY VCSH
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. A THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY BE SOUTH 5-10KTS THIS EVENING...A
LITTLE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SOUTH
WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...AVERAGING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NITE-THU NITE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 040026
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
826 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
STILL COULD BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90 AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 730 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WE FELT THE
BEST THREAT WAS ALL THE SITES BUT KPOU...SO INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AT ALL THE TAFS BUT KPOU FOR A THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING MAINLY AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR FOG AT KGFL AFTER
08Z...MVFR FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR STRATUS AT THE OTHER SITES.

WE DISSIPATE ALL FOG BY 12Z. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME THE REAL COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT ACTIVE...BUT FOR NOW...DID
INCLUDE A VCSH AT KGFL AFTER 17Z. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE ANY VCSH
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. A THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY BE SOUTH 5-10KTS THIS EVENING...A
LITTLE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SOUTH
WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...AVERAGING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NITE-THU NITE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 032354
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
754 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
STILL COULD BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90 AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 730 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WE FELT THE
BEST THREAT WAS ALL THE SITES BUT KPOU...SO INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AT ALL THE TAFS BUT KPOU FOR A THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING MAINLY AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR FOG AT KGFL AFTER
08Z...MVFR FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR STRATUS AT THE OTHER SITES.

WE DISSIPATE ALL FOG BY 12Z. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME THE REAL COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT ACTIVE...BUT FOR NOW...DID
INCLUDE A VCSH AT KGFL AFTER 17Z. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE ANY VCSH
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. A THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY BE SOUTH 5-10KTS THIS EVENING...A
LITTLE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SOUTH
WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...AVERAGING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 032354
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
754 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
STILL COULD BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90 AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 730 PM EDT...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CELL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY LOOKED STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
ON THAT CELL.

THESE WERE TIED INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SLOWLY EXISTING THE
REGION BUT A COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR WEST. INSTABILTY  STILL
WAS AROUND 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. THESE INGREDIENTS ARE JUST
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...WHERE
THE THREAT MIGHT LINGER AWHILE LONGER AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

SOME STRATUS MIGHT FORM THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
AND JUST ENOUGH WIND TO LIFT ANY FOG INTO A STRATUS DECK.

LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE...AS THEY DIP BACK INTO THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WE FELT THE
BEST THREAT WAS ALL THE SITES BUT KPOU...SO INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AT ALL THE TAFS BUT KPOU FOR A THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING MAINLY AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR FOG AT KGFL AFTER
08Z...MVFR FOG AND PERHAPS MVFR STRATUS AT THE OTHER SITES.

WE DISSIPATE ALL FOG BY 12Z. THAT IS ABOUT THE TIME THE REAL COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT ACTIVE...BUT FOR NOW...DID
INCLUDE A VCSH AT KGFL AFTER 17Z. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE ANY VCSH
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. A THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY POSSIBLE AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY BE SOUTH 5-10KTS THIS EVENING...A
LITTLE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SOUTH
WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...AVERAGING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH HAVE CONTAINED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (LOCALIZED TWO INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS). HOWEVER...RIVER BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE CLOSER
TO A QUARTER INCH. OTHER THAN THE USUAL LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IF ANY RESPONSE ON ANY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CREEKS OR RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AT THIS TIME.

MAINLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THEN...A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KBOX 032259
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF FRANKLIN COUNTY MASS...THE STORMS HAVE
REMAINED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING. WITH STORMS REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER STORM OR TWO MOVES THROUGH THIS SAME
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS DRY AIR IS ERODING AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...OVERALL EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO
BE DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MADE ONLY VERY MINOR UPDATES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IT WAS
LARGELY ON TRACK. THOSE UPDATES MADE WERE TO THE TEMPERATURES TO
BRING THEM BACK IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS.

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS. SCT -SHRA SWEEP FROM THE W AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA /
+RA AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. PATCHY FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES 20-25 KTS. SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR THOUGH BETTER CHANCES OVER SE NEW ENGLAND INTO EVENING.
OTHER THAN MVFR LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING...
TEMPO MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEATHER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TERMINALS CLEAR OUT W TO E.
PREVAILING VFR WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINAL TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY
OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 032259
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF FRANKLIN COUNTY MASS...THE STORMS HAVE
REMAINED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING. WITH STORMS REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER STORM OR TWO MOVES THROUGH THIS SAME
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS DRY AIR IS ERODING AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...OVERALL EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO
BE DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MADE ONLY VERY MINOR UPDATES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IT WAS
LARGELY ON TRACK. THOSE UPDATES MADE WERE TO THE TEMPERATURES TO
BRING THEM BACK IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS.

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS. SCT -SHRA SWEEP FROM THE W AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA /
+RA AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. PATCHY FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES 20-25 KTS. SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR THOUGH BETTER CHANCES OVER SE NEW ENGLAND INTO EVENING.
OTHER THAN MVFR LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING...
TEMPO MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEATHER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TERMINALS CLEAR OUT W TO E.
PREVAILING VFR WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINAL TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY
OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 032137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
537 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.

MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.

OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 032117
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
517 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.

MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.

OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 032117
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
517 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.

MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.

OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 032117
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
517 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.

MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.

OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 032117
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
517 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.

MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.

OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL  SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.

THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 032109
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
509 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.

MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.

OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 032109
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
509 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.

MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.

OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 032109
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
509 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.

MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.

OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 032109
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
509 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.

MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.

OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 032024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...MOST OF THE CIN IS MIXED OUT...A FINE LINE/PRE
FRONTAL TROF IS FM SLK-BGM AND APPEARS IT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF IT SKIES HAVE BEEN
SUNNY...TD ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S WITH A
FEW MORE HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING TO GO. AT 500HPA THE FIRST
SHORT WV ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE QB/ONT CUT OFF IS
IN THE E GRTLKS AND MVNG SLOWLY E WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS N OR N OF
FCA.

MU CAPE VALUES ARE NOW IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. SCT TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS LINE
DURING THE AFTN HRS...WHICH WILL BE COME STRONG AND SOME MAY BE
SEVERE.

THIS SCT-BKN LINE OF STORMS WILL PROGRESS IN BOWING SEGMENTS
ACROSS THE RGN DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG. SEE LATEST SPC DISC. PRE-
FRONTAL TROF WILL REACH SVT-RDG BY EVNG...AND DRIFT EAST AS
ACTIVITY DIM AND ATMOS STABILIZES. OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST AS THE MAIN CDFNT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND THEN
TO COAST BY DAYBREAK.

WITH CYCLONIC 500HPA FLOW ACROSS THE RGN AND COOLING AT 500HPACLOUDS
WILL INCR N TWRD DAYBREAK. MINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT GENERALLY MVFR CONDS W/AREAS
2SM IN BR. PATCHES OF IFR IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTY INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATER
THIS EVENING...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 032024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...MOST OF THE CIN IS MIXED OUT...A FINE LINE/PRE
FRONTAL TROF IS FM SLK-BGM AND APPEARS IT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF IT SKIES HAVE BEEN
SUNNY...TD ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S WITH A
FEW MORE HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING TO GO. AT 500HPA THE FIRST
SHORT WV ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE QB/ONT CUT OFF IS
IN THE E GRTLKS AND MVNG SLOWLY E WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS N OR N OF
FCA.

MU CAPE VALUES ARE NOW IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. SCT TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS LINE
DURING THE AFTN HRS...WHICH WILL BE COME STRONG AND SOME MAY BE
SEVERE.

THIS SCT-BKN LINE OF STORMS WILL PROGRESS IN BOWING SEGMENTS
ACROSS THE RGN DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG. SEE LATEST SPC DISC. PRE-
FRONTAL TROF WILL REACH SVT-RDG BY EVNG...AND DRIFT EAST AS
ACTIVITY DIM AND ATMOS STABILIZES. OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST AS THE MAIN CDFNT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND THEN
TO COAST BY DAYBREAK.

WITH CYCLONIC 500HPA FLOW ACROSS THE RGN AND COOLING AT 500HPACLOUDS
WILL INCR N TWRD DAYBREAK. MINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT GENERALLY MVFR CONDS W/AREAS
2SM IN BR. PATCHES OF IFR IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTY INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATER
THIS EVENING...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031927
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
327 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

THIS EVENING...

WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CONVERGENT PLUME OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGHER
THETA-E AIR CONTINUES TO SWEEP NE OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO SE NEW
ENGLAND. WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT OFF TO THE NE. A DRY WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE WEATHER
ONGOING OVER UPSTATE NY INTO N NEW ENGLAND. WHILE SOME OF THE
W-ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT N/W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND IT IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEAKENED BY THE DRIER SUBSIDING AIR IN PLACE. NOTING ON THE
VISIBLE THE LACK OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE IN THE WATER
VAPOR THE DRY WEDGE IS CLEARLY EVIDENT.

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS. SCT -SHRA SWEEP FROM THE W AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA /
+RA AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. PATCHY FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES 20-25 KTS. SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR THOUGH BETTER CHANCES OVER SE NEW ENGLAND INTO EVENING.
OTHER THAN MVFR LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING...
TEMPO MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEATHER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TERMINALS CLEAR OUT W TO E.
PREVAILING VFR WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINAL TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. UNCERTAIN AS TO
WHETHER SHRA/TSRA WILL ADVECT W OUT OF NY. GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT
THEY WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO ANY ARRIVAL.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY
OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031927
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
327 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

THIS EVENING...

WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CONVERGENT PLUME OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGHER
THETA-E AIR CONTINUES TO SWEEP NE OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO SE NEW
ENGLAND. WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT OFF TO THE NE. A DRY WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ACROSS THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE WEATHER
ONGOING OVER UPSTATE NY INTO N NEW ENGLAND. WHILE SOME OF THE
W-ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT N/W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND IT IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEAKENED BY THE DRIER SUBSIDING AIR IN PLACE. NOTING ON THE
VISIBLE THE LACK OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE IN THE WATER
VAPOR THE DRY WEDGE IS CLEARLY EVIDENT.

TONIGHT...

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTCOMES INTO SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS NOTES AN INSTABILITY
BURST ELEVATED AND MAINTAINED BY A S/SW WARM-MOIST PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR ABOVE A SUBSEQUENT INVERSION. PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE NOSE OF A H925-85 JET WITHIN A
H85-7 ENVIRONMENT OF 6-7C/KM LAPSE RATES. YET THERE IS A LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING AS THE BETTER AREA OF PVA / MID-LEVEL TROUGH /
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE W.

THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COLLOCATED WITH THE CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL PLUME.
UNCERTAINTY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. THINKING LOW RISK
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WILL
SEE COLLOCATED UNI-DIRECTIONAL SW-NE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 40
KTS AND FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 11 KFT. SOME EVIDENCE OF TURNING
WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM LAYER. SREF DOES DENOTE DECENT PROBABILITIES
OF INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 2K J/KG IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR AND TURNING ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH SREF PROBS NOT SO MUCH HELPFUL
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT
TO POSSIBLE FLOODING IS LOW DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOMES THAT
WERE DISCUSSED ABOVE. WILL AVOID ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING.

SHOULD BETTER FORCING AND VENTING ALOFT WITH THE H3 JET SHIFT E...
THERE WOULD BE GREATER IMPETUS UPON THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE
GREATER AND LIKELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE WEATHER. INTERESTING AS TO
WHETHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS W FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHIFT E AND
ACT AS A CRUX OF FORCING VIA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND THERE IS JUST AN UNDERLYING
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OTHER THAN THE FOCUS BEING ON SE NEW ENGLAND.
IT MAY BE QUIET THROUGHOUT AS THE PRESENT DRY SUBSIDING WEDGE OF
AIR ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS.

OTHERWISE SW-FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT USHERING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE S/SE-
COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S AND MAY SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO JUST ACROSS S/SE NEW ENGLAND IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

A COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD SUBDUE THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.
BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THRU WHICH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ACCOMPANYING JET-STREAKS RESIDE...THE OVERALL QUESTION IS AS TO
WHETHER A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SWEEPING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST THETA-E
AIR AND INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2K J/KG IN WHICH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ESPECIALLY H85-7 AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE TO STRONG TO
50 KTS WITH SLIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE 0-1/0-3 KM PROFILE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE MECHANISMS FOR FORCING...BUT SHOULD MID-LEVEL RIDGING
PROCEED...THIS SEEMS TO SQUASH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHOULD ACTIVITY DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING
OVER SE NEW ENGLAND AS NOTED EARLIER IT COULD SUBDUE THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM BECOMING CONVECTIVE /I.E. CLOUD COVER/. A VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST.

BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING POPPING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED NOTING THE CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE IN WHERE SEVERAL OF THE ANALOGS WITNESSED SUBSTANTIAL WIND
AND HAIL IMPACTS OVER N- AND W-PORTIONS OF S NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG
TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS SEEMINGLY THERE THOUGH THERE IS SOME
LEVEL OF DOUBT. EVEN SPC WILL WAIT ON HOW THE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
WITH RESPECT TO THEIR CONVECTIVE WEATHER OUTLOOKS...WHETHER THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE. CAN NOT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY AND
WILL PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY. FOCUS OF A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
POSSIBILITIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE FORECAST.

WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE SEEMS MIXED WITH AN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION OF
SYNOPTICS...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE VICINITY OF SE NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS
WHERE THE SW-NE PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES AS WELL AS BOTH
A STRONGER AND CONVERGENT SW-NE H925-85 WIND PROFILE. WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AS OUTLINED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
ALSO COULD BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.

OVERALL...A MILD AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80S
AS DEWPOINTS RANGE AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE HIGHER THETA-E / INSTABILITY OUT TO SEA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SO ANTICIPATING A DRYING TREND. W-FLOW
PROCEEDING USHERING LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW- TO MID-
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN AND TIMING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IN SOME TIME PERIODS IT
SEEMS THAT THE GFS MAY JUST BE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. IN OTHERS...
THEY ARE JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH
HELP IN THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL AND THE GEFS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. BASICALLY HAVE TWO
FAIRLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...
GENERAL TRENDS ARE SIMILAR. LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION...EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES THE TIMING IS
OFF BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS QUICK TO MOVE THE
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE REGION...PUSHED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS KEEPS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNSETTLED TIME WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN POSSIBLY UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS...
TRACKING THE LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK AND BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY ALONG WHICH SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A GIVEN WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SHAKE OUT...BUT IN GENERAL THE WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND
QUIETER WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS. SCT -SHRA SWEEP FROM THE W AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA /
+RA AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. PATCHY FOG. VFR ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES 20-25 KTS. SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR THOUGH BETTER CHANCES OVER SE NEW ENGLAND INTO EVENING.
OTHER THAN MVFR LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING...
TEMPO MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEATHER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS BACK W WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. TERMINALS CLEAR OUT W TO E.
PREVAILING VFR WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER SE TERMINALS TOWARDS
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TERMINAL TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. UNCERTAIN AS TO
WHETHER SHRA/TSRA WILL ADVECT W OUT OF NY. GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT
THEY WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO ANY ARRIVAL.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY
OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NW MA WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD.  VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIOD OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS...STRONGER OVER THE S-
WATERS AT 25 KTS. WAVES BUILDING TO 5 FEET. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG ISSUES. INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER- STORMS TOWARDS MORNING. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WAVES AT 5-6 FEET. CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME OF THOSE STORMS BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW-WINDS BACKING W THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS SUBSIDING. WAVES AT
5-6 FEET. SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONCLUDE W TO E TOWARDS
MORNING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LIMITING VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
     250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 031742
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...MOST OF THE CIN IS MIXED OUT...A FINE LINE/PRE
FRONTAL TROF IS FM SLK-BGM AND APPEARS IT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF IT SKIES HAVE BEEN
SUNNY...TD ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S WITH A
FEW MORE HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING TO GO. AT 500HPA THE FIRST
SHORT WV ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE QB/ONT CUT OFF IS
IN THE E GRTLKS AND MVNG SLOWLY E WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS N OR N OF
FCA.

MU CAPE VALUES ARE NOW IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. SCT TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS LINE
DURING THE AFTN HRS...WHICH WILL BE COME STRONG AND SOME MAY BE
SEVERE.

THIS SCT-BKN LINE OF STORMS WILL PROGRESS IN BOWING SEGMENTS
ACROSS THE RGN DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG. SEE LATEST SPC DISC. PRE-
FRONTAL TROF WILL REACH SVT-RDG BY EVNG...AND DRIFT EAST AS
ACTIVITY DIM AND ATMOS STABILIZES. OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST AS THE MAIN CDFNT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND THEN
TO COAST BY DAYBREAK.

WITH CYCLONIC 500HPA FLOW ACROSS THE RGN AND COOLING AT 500HPACLOUDS
WILL INCR N TWRD DAYBREAK. MINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT GENERALLY MVFR CONDS W/AREAS
2SM IN BR. PATCHES OF IFR IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTY INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATER
THIS EVENING...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 031742
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...MOST OF THE CIN IS MIXED OUT...A FINE LINE/PRE
FRONTAL TROF IS FM SLK-BGM AND APPEARS IT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF IT SKIES HAVE BEEN
SUNNY...TD ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S WITH A
FEW MORE HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING TO GO. AT 500HPA THE FIRST
SHORT WV ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE QB/ONT CUT OFF IS
IN THE E GRTLKS AND MVNG SLOWLY E WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS N OR N OF
FCA.

MU CAPE VALUES ARE NOW IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. SCT TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS LINE
DURING THE AFTN HRS...WHICH WILL BE COME STRONG AND SOME MAY BE
SEVERE.

THIS SCT-BKN LINE OF STORMS WILL PROGRESS IN BOWING SEGMENTS
ACROSS THE RGN DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG. SEE LATEST SPC DISC. PRE-
FRONTAL TROF WILL REACH SVT-RDG BY EVNG...AND DRIFT EAST AS
ACTIVITY DIM AND ATMOS STABILIZES. OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST AS THE MAIN CDFNT MOVES INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND THEN
TO COAST BY DAYBREAK.

WITH CYCLONIC 500HPA FLOW ACROSS THE RGN AND COOLING AT 500HPACLOUDS
WILL INCR N TWRD DAYBREAK. MINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT GENERALLY MVFR CONDS W/AREAS
2SM IN BR. PATCHES OF IFR IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTY INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATER
THIS EVENING...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 031718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...MOST OF THE CIN IS MIXED OUT...A FINE LINE/PRE
FRONTAL TROF IS FM SLK-BGM AND APPEARS IT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF IT SKIES HAVE BEEN
SUNNY...TD ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S WITH A
FEW MORE HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING TO GO. AT 500HPA THE FIRST
SHORT WV ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE QB/ONT CUT OFF IS
IN THE E GRTLKS AND MVNG SLOWLY E WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS N OR N OF
FCA.

MU CAPE VALUES ARE NOW IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. SCT TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS LINE
DURING THE AFTN HRS...WHICH WILL BE COME STRONG AND SOME MAY BE
SEVERE.

THIS SCT-BKN LINE OF STORMS WILL PROGRESS IN BOWING SEGMENTS
ACROSS THE RGN DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG. SEE LATEST SPC DISC. PRE-
FRONTAL TROF WILL REACH SVT-RDG BY EVNG...AND DRIFT EAST AS
ACTIVITY DIM AND ATMOS STABLIZES. OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST AS THE MAIN CDFNT MVES INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND THEN TO
COAST BY DAYBREAK.

WITH CYCLONIC 500HPA FLOW ACROSS THE RGN AND COOLING AT 500HPACLOUDS
WILL INCR N TWRD DAYBREAK. MINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 031718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...MOST OF THE CIN IS MIXED OUT...A FINE LINE/PRE
FRONTAL TROF IS FM SLK-BGM AND APPEARS IT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF IT SKIES HAVE BEEN
SUNNY...TD ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S WITH A
FEW MORE HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING TO GO. AT 500HPA THE FIRST
SHORT WV ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE QB/ONT CUT OFF IS
IN THE E GRTLKS AND MVNG SLOWLY E WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS N OR N OF
FCA.

MU CAPE VALUES ARE NOW IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. SCT TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS LINE
DURING THE AFTN HRS...WHICH WILL BE COME STRONG AND SOME MAY BE
SEVERE.

THIS SCT-BKN LINE OF STORMS WILL PROGRESS IN BOWING SEGMENTS
ACROSS THE RGN DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG. SEE LATEST SPC DISC. PRE-
FRONTAL TROF WILL REACH SVT-RDG BY EVNG...AND DRIFT EAST AS
ACTIVITY DIM AND ATMOS STABLIZES. OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST AS THE MAIN CDFNT MVES INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND THEN TO
COAST BY DAYBREAK.

WITH CYCLONIC 500HPA FLOW ACROSS THE RGN AND COOLING AT 500HPACLOUDS
WILL INCR N TWRD DAYBREAK. MINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 031718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...MOST OF THE CIN IS MIXED OUT...A FINE LINE/PRE
FRONTAL TROF IS FM SLK-BGM AND APPEARS IT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF IT SKIES HAVE BEEN
SUNNY...TD ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S WITH A
FEW MORE HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING TO GO. AT 500HPA THE FIRST
SHORT WV ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE QB/ONT CUT OFF IS
IN THE E GRTLKS AND MVNG SLOWLY E WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS N OR N OF
FCA.

MU CAPE VALUES ARE NOW IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. SCT TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS LINE
DURING THE AFTN HRS...WHICH WILL BE COME STRONG AND SOME MAY BE
SEVERE.

THIS SCT-BKN LINE OF STORMS WILL PROGRESS IN BOWING SEGMENTS
ACROSS THE RGN DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG. SEE LATEST SPC DISC. PRE-
FRONTAL TROF WILL REACH SVT-RDG BY EVNG...AND DRIFT EAST AS
ACTIVITY DIM AND ATMOS STABLIZES. OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST AS THE MAIN CDFNT MVES INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND THEN TO
COAST BY DAYBREAK.

WITH CYCLONIC 500HPA FLOW ACROSS THE RGN AND COOLING AT 500HPACLOUDS
WILL INCR N TWRD DAYBREAK. MINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 031718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...MOST OF THE CIN IS MIXED OUT...A FINE LINE/PRE
FRONTAL TROF IS FM SLK-BGM AND APPEARS IT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF IT SKIES HAVE BEEN
SUNNY...TD ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S WITH A
FEW MORE HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING TO GO. AT 500HPA THE FIRST
SHORT WV ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE QB/ONT CUT OFF IS
IN THE E GRTLKS AND MVNG SLOWLY E WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS N OR N OF
FCA.

MU CAPE VALUES ARE NOW IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. SCT TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS LINE
DURING THE AFTN HRS...WHICH WILL BE COME STRONG AND SOME MAY BE
SEVERE.

THIS SCT-BKN LINE OF STORMS WILL PROGRESS IN BOWING SEGMENTS
ACROSS THE RGN DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG. SEE LATEST SPC DISC. PRE-
FRONTAL TROF WILL REACH SVT-RDG BY EVNG...AND DRIFT EAST AS
ACTIVITY DIM AND ATMOS STABLIZES. OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST AS THE MAIN CDFNT MVES INTO THE E GRTLKS...AND THEN TO
COAST BY DAYBREAK.

WITH CYCLONIC 500HPA FLOW ACROSS THE RGN AND COOLING AT 500HPACLOUDS
WILL INCR N TWRD DAYBREAK. MINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031354
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
954 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. DRY...
WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS SOME OF WHICH EVOLVING INTO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ERUPTED SE OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WATERS. BENEATH FAVORABLE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL GRADIENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR...CONVERGENCE IS LENDING TO DEVELOPMENT. BUT ACTIVITY
IS STAYING LOW AND NOT BECOMING ROBUST DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF DEEP
LAYER FORCING. ONLY INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE ARE
AIDING IN THE PROCESS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25 KTS. COLLOCATED UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT
VENTING AIDING AS WELL.

FEEL THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND THUS HAVE
INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SE WATERS. UNCERTAIN AS TO
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY
AND AS TO WHETHER WE CAN GENERATE SOME UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT VIA A
COLLOCATED AFOREMENTIONED H3 JET STREAK. AGAIN...FORCING APPEARS
TO BE CONVERGENT RELATED SO WITH ANY LATER ACTIVITY FEEL IT WILL
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.

OTHERWISE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND THE MID-60S. DRIER N/W WITH UPPER-50 TO LOW-60 DEWPOINTS. A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS UNDER BREEZY SW-WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH.

AGREE WITH THE PRIOR FORECAST TEAM THAT LITTLE HEIGHT FALLS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY BENEATH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR PER 12Z SOUNDINGS.
RIDGE SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING OUR AREA DRY.
THUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY N AND W BUT IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE REMNANTS AS WELL AS THE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND FORCING CAN DRIFT INTO NW MA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD INTO EVENING WITH THE MEAN WIND.
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR AND DRY. TSRA IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP W LATE. SSW
WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF POTENTIAL
TSRA. VFR TO START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS RI AND SE MA.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF POTENTIAL
TSRA. A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031354
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
954 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. DRY...
WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
WET WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS SOME OF WHICH EVOLVING INTO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ERUPTED SE OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WATERS. BENEATH FAVORABLE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL GRADIENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR...CONVERGENCE IS LENDING TO DEVELOPMENT. BUT ACTIVITY
IS STAYING LOW AND NOT BECOMING ROBUST DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF DEEP
LAYER FORCING. ONLY INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE ARE
AIDING IN THE PROCESS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25 KTS. COLLOCATED UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT
VENTING AIDING AS WELL.

FEEL THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND THUS HAVE
INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SE WATERS. UNCERTAIN AS TO
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY
AND AS TO WHETHER WE CAN GENERATE SOME UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT VIA A
COLLOCATED AFOREMENTIONED H3 JET STREAK. AGAIN...FORCING APPEARS
TO BE CONVERGENT RELATED SO WITH ANY LATER ACTIVITY FEEL IT WILL
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.

OTHERWISE A WARM AND HUMID DAY ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT INTO THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND THE MID-60S. DRIER N/W WITH UPPER-50 TO LOW-60 DEWPOINTS. A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS UNDER BREEZY SW-WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH.

AGREE WITH THE PRIOR FORECAST TEAM THAT LITTLE HEIGHT FALLS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY BENEATH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR PER 12Z SOUNDINGS.
RIDGE SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING OUR AREA DRY.
THUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY N AND W BUT IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE REMNANTS AS WELL AS THE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND FORCING CAN DRIFT INTO NW MA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD INTO EVENING WITH THE MEAN WIND.
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR AND DRY. TSRA IN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP W LATE. SSW
WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF POTENTIAL
TSRA. VFR TO START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS RI AND SE MA.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF POTENTIAL
TSRA. A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 031341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
941 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT- WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER TODAY...AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. BUT UNTIL THEN THE FCST AREA IS LARGELY UNDER THE LEFT
FRONT EXIT RGN OF A JET WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF FCST THIS
MORNING.

THE 12UTC RAOB SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CAPPING AT 550 HPA AND 850HPA. AT
THE SFC...A CDFNT WAS FM NW OHIO INTO THE OTTAWA VALLEY...LEAVING
THE FCST AREA IN WARM SECTOR MUCH OF TDY. CURRENTLY TD ARE AROUND
60...WITH NOT MUCH MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION LIKELY TODAY AS
UPSTREAM TD IN PA ARE IN SAME RANGE. SPC MESO ANAL HAS 150-250
J/KG OF CIN OVER FCA ATTM.

A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS WRN-CNTRL NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH
ZONE BTWN THE SFC TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 8-11 PM. THE LATEST HIRESWRF
REF PRODUCT CONTINUES THIS TREND...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
FASTER. THE 4-KM WPC SPC WRF ACTUALLY HAS SOME CONVECTION FIRE
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AROUND 2-4
PM. WE ARE GOING TO STICK CLOSER TO THE HIRESWRF FOR THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREAT.  ACTUALLY H850
TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL...BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50+ INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...SNYDER/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 031341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
941 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT- WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER TODAY...AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. BUT UNTIL THEN THE FCST AREA IS LARGELY UNDER THE LEFT
FRONT EXIT RGN OF A JET WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF FCST THIS
MORNING.

THE 12UTC RAOB SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CAPPING AT 550 HPA AND 850HPA. AT
THE SFC...A CDFNT WAS FM NW OHIO INTO THE OTTAWA VALLEY...LEAVING
THE FCST AREA IN WARM SECTOR MUCH OF TDY. CURRENTLY TD ARE AROUND
60...WITH NOT MUCH MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION LIKELY TODAY AS
UPSTREAM TD IN PA ARE IN SAME RANGE. SPC MESO ANAL HAS 150-250
J/KG OF CIN OVER FCA ATTM.

A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS WRN-CNTRL NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH
ZONE BTWN THE SFC TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 8-11 PM. THE LATEST HIRESWRF
REF PRODUCT CONTINUES THIS TREND...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
FASTER. THE 4-KM WPC SPC WRF ACTUALLY HAS SOME CONVECTION FIRE
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AROUND 2-4
PM. WE ARE GOING TO STICK CLOSER TO THE HIRESWRF FOR THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREAT.  ACTUALLY H850
TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL...BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50+ INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...SNYDER/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET AND INCREASING 925 MB MOISTURE.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.

OTHERWISE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS LOW LYING
REGIONS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR AS TEMPS BEGIN TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. STRATUS WILL ALSO BREAK UP
WITHIN THE HOUR SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPACT ON TERMINALS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
THUS MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY IFR IN FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF WITHIN THE HOUR. ALSO T-STORMS IN NY
STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE IN THE DAY. SSW
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 031103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET AND INCREASING 925 MB MOISTURE.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.

OTHERWISE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS LOW LYING
REGIONS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR AS TEMPS BEGIN TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. STRATUS WILL ALSO BREAK UP
WITHIN THE HOUR SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPACT ON TERMINALS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
THUS MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY IFR IN FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF WITHIN THE HOUR. ALSO T-STORMS IN NY
STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE IN THE DAY. SSW
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET AND INCREASING 925 MB MOISTURE.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.

OTHERWISE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS LOW LYING
REGIONS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR AS TEMPS BEGIN TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. STRATUS WILL ALSO BREAK UP
WITHIN THE HOUR SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPACT ON TERMINALS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
THUS MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY IFR IN FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF WITHIN THE HOUR. ALSO T-STORMS IN NY
STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE IN THE DAY. SSW
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 031103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS MUCH OF TODAY THEN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS EVENING INTO TUE. DRY...WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET AND INCREASING 925 MB MOISTURE.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.

OTHERWISE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS LOW LYING
REGIONS. THIS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR AS TEMPS BEGIN TO
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. STRATUS WILL ALSO BREAK UP
WITHIN THE HOUR SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPACT ON TERMINALS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

QUITE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VLY.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SIMULATING THIS CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING TODAY/S FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LEAD SHORT WAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NY STATE TODAY AND
THEN INTO NORTHERN VT AND ST LWRN RVR VLY THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE IF ANY HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
THUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH EAST COAST RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR TO PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM FORMING OR TRACKING INTO THE
AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS WESTERN MA...CLOSER TO THE JET
ENERGY/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THEREFORE THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY CLIP WESTERN MA.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN DEW PTS RISING
OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
THUS MORE HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90 AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY 85 TO 90. AN
INCREASING SSW WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
*** POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE ***

TONIGHT...

MORE POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WHERE 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACH 50 KTS! THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COOLS H5
TEMPS TO -11C/-12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW PTS INCREASING
INTO THE U60S AND L70S PROVIDES MUCAPES GREATER THAN 2000J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0C/KM BY 12Z TUE ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA PER 00Z EC AND 00Z GFS! EVEN THE COURSE 00Z GEFS HAS
THE SAME SIGNAL AND STRENGTH. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 50 KT PROVIDES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO UNLEASH THIS STRONG INSTABILITY. MIXED SIGNALS WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOT GENERATING MUCH QPF TONIGHT
WHILE THE HI RES GUID NMM AND ARW HAVE CONVECTION BUT WEAKENING AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE NAM
GIVEN IT/S HIGH BIASED DEW PTS AND CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER IF STORMS CAN FIRE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE TOO ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW LCLS /HIGH DEW PTS/ FOR A LOW RISK OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEW PTS RISING THROUGH THE
U60S AND L70S.

TUESDAY...

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS AREAL COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TONIGHT WILL IMPACT IF NEW
CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE DAY TUES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA. THUS RISK OF STORMS GREATEST ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS FIELDS
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE SO RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AROUND FRIDAY
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ELONGATED TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE REGION BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS A ZONAL FLOW. SEVERAL SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TRIES TO BRING A FEW COASTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARDS SNE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM THAT AMPLIFIED TO
MAKE IT A CLASSIC COASTAL LOW...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING A
FEW SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH INDICATE
PRECIP AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN A FEW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL STILL BE ALOFT BY THURSDAY BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE FOCUS MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE BELIEVE
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH SNE REACHING
INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAYS BUT BELOW 80 ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN WAVE DURING THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONS
EC BRINGS PRECIP TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SO ANY SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL MOVE THE PRECIP CHC FOR THE
REGION. FINALLY BEING ON THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE COOLER. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 80F.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF THE PATTERN WILL BRING THIS LOW TO SNE. HAVE KEPT A
LOW CHC AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP DURING THE TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST TERMINALS. PATCHY IFR IN FOG
AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF WITHIN THE HOUR. ALSO T-STORMS IN NY
STATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLIP WESTERN MA LATE IN THE DAY. SSW
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. VFR TO
START BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TUESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
POTENTIAL T-STORMS. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR IN THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT
AND TUE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. COULD SEE MVFR IN
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...

SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE IMPACT THE SOUTH WATERS THIS MORNING. IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

TUESDAY...

SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY. A FEW STRONG T-STORMS POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON T-STORM FORECAST.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. W/SW WINDS BELOW SCA BUT GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS SUBSIDING.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 031049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 648 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK SFC CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION IS MOVING TOWARDS SE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE
U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 8-11 PM. THE LATEST HIRESWRF
REF PRODUCT CONTINUES THIS TREND...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
FASTER. THE 4-KM WPC SPC WRF ACTUALLY HAS SOME CONVECTION FIRE
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AROUND 2-4
PM. WE ARE GOING TO STICK CLOSER TO THE HIRESWRF FOR THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREAT.  ACTUALLY H850
TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL...BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50+ INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 031049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 648 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK SFC CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION IS MOVING TOWARDS SE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE
U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 8-11 PM. THE LATEST HIRESWRF
REF PRODUCT CONTINUES THIS TREND...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
FASTER. THE 4-KM WPC SPC WRF ACTUALLY HAS SOME CONVECTION FIRE
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AROUND 2-4
PM. WE ARE GOING TO STICK CLOSER TO THE HIRESWRF FOR THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREAT.  ACTUALLY H850
TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL...BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50+ INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 031049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 648 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK SFC CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION IS MOVING TOWARDS SE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE
U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 8-11 PM. THE LATEST HIRESWRF
REF PRODUCT CONTINUES THIS TREND...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
FASTER. THE 4-KM WPC SPC WRF ACTUALLY HAS SOME CONVECTION FIRE
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AROUND 2-4
PM. WE ARE GOING TO STICK CLOSER TO THE HIRESWRF FOR THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREAT.  ACTUALLY H850
TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL...BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50+ INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 031049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 648 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK SFC CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION IS MOVING TOWARDS SE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE
U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 8-11 PM. THE LATEST HIRESWRF
REF PRODUCT CONTINUES THIS TREND...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
FASTER. THE 4-KM WPC SPC WRF ACTUALLY HAS SOME CONVECTION FIRE
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AROUND 2-4
PM. WE ARE GOING TO STICK CLOSER TO THE HIRESWRF FOR THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREAT.  ACTUALLY H850
TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL...BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50+ INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 030828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 428 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A CYCLONE OVER CNTRL/ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION IS MOVING ACROSS WRN NY/LAKE ONTARIO INTO SE
ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY
WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL
NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM...AND THEN POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN
8-11 PM.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. ACTUALLY H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL... BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 030828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 428 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A CYCLONE OVER CNTRL/ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION IS MOVING ACROSS WRN NY/LAKE ONTARIO INTO SE
ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY
WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL
NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM...AND THEN POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN
8-11 PM.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. ACTUALLY H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL... BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS.

AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.

A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 030828
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

AS OF 428 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A WEAK WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A CYCLONE OVER CNTRL/ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION IS MOVING ACROSS WRN NY/LAKE ONTARIO INTO SE
ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY
WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL
SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL
NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM...AND THEN POTENTIALLY SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN
8-11 PM.

THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. ACTUALLY H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL... BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD AD