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000
FXUS61 KBOX 012255
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT STALLING NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AT THIS
TIME WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE AREA. NO
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS. THEY HAVE
EXHIBITED SOME GUSTY WINDS THOUGH SO THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
TREE OR POWER LINE DAMAGE. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO
THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. FORECAST IS GENERALLY
ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR A TSTM WILL QUICKLY END THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO SNE TONIGHT BUT LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST BUT THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PT-MOSUNNY
SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ACK WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY AS AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE S AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AS WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF CAPE COD. HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW.
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
* LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE
IN PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME
ACROSS THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...IT/S NOT
JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST LIFT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT GIVEN HOW WEAK
THE WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RUN JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BETTER CHANCES
FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
MASS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
PRODUCING SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE JET MOVES OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE PROTECTED NEARSHORE
WATERS...BUT 5 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OVER OPEN SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS SO SCA WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY LIGHT SW WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY
ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE S AND E OF ACK LATE IN THE DAY.

THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
NORTH. SEAS BELOW SCA. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG S
OF CAPE COD AND ESPECIALLY S AND E OF ACK.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY/RLG
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...KJC/DOODY/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 012255
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT STALLING NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AT THIS
TIME WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE AREA. NO
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS. THEY HAVE
EXHIBITED SOME GUSTY WINDS THOUGH SO THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
TREE OR POWER LINE DAMAGE. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO
THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. FORECAST IS GENERALLY
ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR A TSTM WILL QUICKLY END THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO SNE TONIGHT BUT LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST BUT THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PT-MOSUNNY
SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ACK WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY AS AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE S AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AS WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF CAPE COD. HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW.
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
* LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE
IN PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME
ACROSS THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...IT/S NOT
JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST LIFT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT GIVEN HOW WEAK
THE WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RUN JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BETTER CHANCES
FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
MASS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
PRODUCING SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE JET MOVES OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE PROTECTED NEARSHORE
WATERS...BUT 5 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OVER OPEN SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS SO SCA WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY LIGHT SW WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY
ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE S AND E OF ACK LATE IN THE DAY.

THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
NORTH. SEAS BELOW SCA. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG S
OF CAPE COD AND ESPECIALLY S AND E OF ACK.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY/RLG
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...KJC/DOODY/RLG



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000
FXUS61 KALY 012052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
452 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS WORKING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANOTHER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WAS ISSUED UNTIL 500 PM.

OTHER LESS POTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE STILL WORKING ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD INTO THE CATSKILLS. THESE
WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING
THROUGH AT THIS TIME.


DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER 1000
J/KG..MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MID LEVEL RATES
WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.

TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND
POSITIVELY TILTED. MODELS INDICATE WEAK FORCING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ANY STORMS LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE SEASONABLE WARM MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS RISES SUNDAY
AND RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATING INTO TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL COME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WARMER. HIGHS AT OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

HOWEVER...THERE WERE STILL SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT COULD IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THE BEST CONVECTION HAS
SLIPPED TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT ANY OF THE SITES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES BY 23Z. AFTER THAT WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT AND
DAY TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. SOME DIURNAL SCT CU AT
4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 012052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
452 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS WORKING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANOTHER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WAS ISSUED UNTIL 500 PM.

OTHER LESS POTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE STILL WORKING ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD INTO THE CATSKILLS. THESE
WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING
THROUGH AT THIS TIME.


DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER 1000
J/KG..MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MID LEVEL RATES
WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.

TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND
POSITIVELY TILTED. MODELS INDICATE WEAK FORCING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ANY STORMS LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE SEASONABLE WARM MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS RISES SUNDAY
AND RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATING INTO TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL COME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WARMER. HIGHS AT OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

HOWEVER...THERE WERE STILL SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT COULD IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THE BEST CONVECTION HAS
SLIPPED TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT ANY OF THE SITES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES BY 23Z. AFTER THAT WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT AND
DAY TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. SOME DIURNAL SCT CU AT
4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 012020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 415 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS WORKING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANOTHER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WAS ISSUED UNTIL 500 PM.

OTHER LESS POTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE STILL WORKING ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD INTO THE CATSKILLS. THESE
WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING
THROUGH AT THIS TIME.


DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER 1000
J/KG..MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MID LEVEL RATES
WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.

TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

HOWEVER...THERE WERE STILL SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT COULD IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THE BEST CONVECTION HAS
SLIPPED TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT ANY OF THE SITES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES BY 23Z. AFTER THAT WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT AND
DAY TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. SOME DIURNAL SCT CU AT
4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 012020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 415 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS WORKING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. ANOTHER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WAS ISSUED UNTIL 500 PM.

OTHER LESS POTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE STILL WORKING ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD INTO THE CATSKILLS. THESE
WERE ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING
THROUGH AT THIS TIME.


DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER 1000
J/KG..MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MID LEVEL RATES
WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.

TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

HOWEVER...THERE WERE STILL SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT COULD IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THE BEST CONVECTION HAS
SLIPPED TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AT ANY OF THE SITES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES BY 23Z. AFTER THAT WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT AND
DAY TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. SOME DIURNAL SCT CU AT
4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT STALLING NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS CONCENTRATED MOSTLY ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND N
NEW ENG WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER. MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6-6.5 C/KM. 0-6KM
SHEAR 35-40 KT SO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOTING DRIER
AIR PUNCHING EAST ALONG THE S COAST PER LOWER KI VALUES AND MODELS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING MOVING ALONG THE S COAST AND SE MA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. MAIN THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND NW OF THE DRY SLOT...PRIMARILY N OF THE
MASS PIKE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR A TSTM WILL QUICKLY END THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO SNE TONIGHT BUT LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST BUT THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PT-MOSUNNY
SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ACK WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY AS AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE S AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AS WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF CAPE COD. HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW.
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
* LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE
IN PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME
ACROSS THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...IT/S NOT
JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST LIFT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT GIVEN HOW WEAK
THE WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RUN JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BETTER CHANCES
FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS. SCT T-STORMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP MAINLY CENTRAL AND W MA. S WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE LIKELY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
PRODUCING SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE JET MOVES OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE PROTECTED NEARSHORE
WATERS...BUT 5 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OVER OPEN SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS SO SCA WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY LIGHT SW WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY
ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE S AND E OF ACK LATE IN THE DAY.

THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
NORTH. SEAS BELOW SCA. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG S
OF CAPE COD AND ESPECIALLY S AND E OF ACK.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY/RLG
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...KJC/DOODY/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT STALLING NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS CONCENTRATED MOSTLY ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND N
NEW ENG WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER. MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6-6.5 C/KM. 0-6KM
SHEAR 35-40 KT SO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOTING DRIER
AIR PUNCHING EAST ALONG THE S COAST PER LOWER KI VALUES AND MODELS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING MOVING ALONG THE S COAST AND SE MA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. MAIN THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND NW OF THE DRY SLOT...PRIMARILY N OF THE
MASS PIKE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR A TSTM WILL QUICKLY END THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO SNE TONIGHT BUT LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST BUT THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PT-MOSUNNY
SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ACK WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY AS AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE S AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AS WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF CAPE COD. HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW.
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
* LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE
IN PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME
ACROSS THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...IT/S NOT
JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST LIFT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT GIVEN HOW WEAK
THE WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RUN JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BETTER CHANCES
FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS. SCT T-STORMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP MAINLY CENTRAL AND W MA. S WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE LIKELY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
PRODUCING SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE JET MOVES OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE PROTECTED NEARSHORE
WATERS...BUT 5 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OVER OPEN SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS SO SCA WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY LIGHT SW WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY
ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE S AND E OF ACK LATE IN THE DAY.

THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
NORTH. SEAS BELOW SCA. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG S
OF CAPE COD AND ESPECIALLY S AND E OF ACK.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY/RLG
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...KJC/DOODY/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT STALLING NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS CONCENTRATED MOSTLY ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND N
NEW ENG WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER. MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6-6.5 C/KM. 0-6KM
SHEAR 35-40 KT SO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOTING DRIER
AIR PUNCHING EAST ALONG THE S COAST PER LOWER KI VALUES AND MODELS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING MOVING ALONG THE S COAST AND SE MA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. MAIN THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND NW OF THE DRY SLOT...PRIMARILY N OF THE
MASS PIKE.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR A TSTM WILL QUICKLY END THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO SNE TONIGHT BUT LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST BUT THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PT-MOSUNNY
SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ACK WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY AS AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE S AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AS WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF CAPE COD. HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW.
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
* LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE
IN PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME
ACROSS THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...IT/S NOT
JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST LIFT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT GIVEN HOW WEAK
THE WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RUN JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BETTER CHANCES
FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS. SCT T-STORMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP MAINLY CENTRAL AND W MA. S WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEABREEZE LIKELY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
PRODUCING SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE JET MOVES OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE PROTECTED NEARSHORE
WATERS...BUT 5 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OVER OPEN SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS SO SCA WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY LIGHT SW WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY
ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE S AND E OF ACK LATE IN THE DAY.

THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
NORTH. SEAS BELOW SCA. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG S
OF CAPE COD AND ESPECIALLY S AND E OF ACK.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY/RLG
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...KJC/DOODY/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 011920
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
320 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
WORKING ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY ABOUT TO REACH THE CAPITAL
REGION. THESE WERE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE WORKING
THROUGH THE REGION.

THESE SHOWERS WILL WORK STEADILY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ONE OF THE STORMS WAS MARGINALLY SEVERE AS IT WORKED THROUGH
JOHNSTOWN KNOCKING A FEW TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN THAT TOWN.

DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH 80-85 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...BEFORE THE SHOWERS AND FRONT WORK
THROUGH...MID TO UPPER 70S MOST OTHER PLACES.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.

TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 011913
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
313 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARP SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.

TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IT APPEARS THAT RISING
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 011913
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
313 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARP SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.

TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IT APPEARS THAT RISING
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 011913
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
313 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARP SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.

TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IT APPEARS THAT RISING
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KALY 011913
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
313 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARP SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.

TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVES BUY...ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY LOOK
TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN.
THE SKY WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT +6 IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...CLOSER TO +10C IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. A BREEZE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
LOCALLY AROUND 60 IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IT APPEARS THAT RISING
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV



000
FXUS61 KALY 011844
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
244 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARPT SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTNETIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011844
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
244 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARPT SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTNETIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011844
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
244 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARPT SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTNETIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011844
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
244 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARPT SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTNETIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011844
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
244 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARPT SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTNETIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011844
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
244 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
TAKE HOLD AS A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOMORROW
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS 230 PM EDT...DRIER AIR WAS WORKING IN ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL AS A
SHARPT SHORT WAVE. THIS DRIER AIR MIGHT HELP ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DOES FORM TO ENHANCED THE TRANSPORT MOMENTUM OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WERE WE HAVE ISSUED ONE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FULTON COUNTY...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SO THERE IT IS STILL POTNETIAL THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A LEAST SOME HAIL AS SBCAPES WERE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL RATES WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM. THE 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WAS ABOUT 35KTS.

ALL THESE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...SO SPC/S MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

RADARS WERE FOLLOWING OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT NOT AS STRONG...WORKING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS IF
WE COULD FORM A BROKEN LINE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

FORTUNATELY...THE FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE...SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

SINCE WE HAVE BROKEN OUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HILLS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
150 PM UPDATE...
RADAR IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS SNE OTHER THAN AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS CENTRAL MA. AIRMASS IS DESTABILIZING WITH
MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND SBCAPES 1500 J/KG ACROSS
CENTRAL/W MA AND N CT UNDER SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6-6.5 C/KM. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT SO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE. NOTING SOME DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO SW CT AND
MODELS SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING MOVING ALONG THE S COAST AND SE MA
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE NORTH AND NW OF THE DRY SLOT ACROSS CENTRAL AND W MA. BEST
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY HAS MOVED E OF NEW ENG SO DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS. SCT T-STORMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP MAINLY CENTRAL AND W MA. S WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

ISSUED SCA FOR NE MA COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO SE GUSTS TO 25
KT WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING A BIT AND SHIFTING TO S.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
150 PM UPDATE...
RADAR IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS SNE OTHER THAN AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS CENTRAL MA. AIRMASS IS DESTABILIZING WITH
MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND SBCAPES 1500 J/KG ACROSS
CENTRAL/W MA AND N CT UNDER SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6-6.5 C/KM. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT SO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE. NOTING SOME DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO SW CT AND
MODELS SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING MOVING ALONG THE S COAST AND SE MA
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE NORTH AND NW OF THE DRY SLOT ACROSS CENTRAL AND W MA. BEST
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY HAS MOVED E OF NEW ENG SO DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS. SCT T-STORMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP MAINLY CENTRAL AND W MA. S WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

ISSUED SCA FOR NE MA COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO SE GUSTS TO 25
KT WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING A BIT AND SHIFTING TO S.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
150 PM UPDATE...
RADAR IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS SNE OTHER THAN AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS CENTRAL MA. AIRMASS IS DESTABILIZING WITH
MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND SBCAPES 1500 J/KG ACROSS
CENTRAL/W MA AND N CT UNDER SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6-6.5 C/KM. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT SO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE. NOTING SOME DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO SW CT AND
MODELS SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING MOVING ALONG THE S COAST AND SE MA
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE NORTH AND NW OF THE DRY SLOT ACROSS CENTRAL AND W MA. BEST
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY HAS MOVED E OF NEW ENG SO DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS. SCT T-STORMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP MAINLY CENTRAL AND W MA. S WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

ISSUED SCA FOR NE MA COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO SE GUSTS TO 25
KT WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING A BIT AND SHIFTING TO S.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
150 PM UPDATE...
RADAR IS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS SNE OTHER THAN AN ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM ACROSS CENTRAL MA. AIRMASS IS DESTABILIZING WITH
MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND SBCAPES 1500 J/KG ACROSS
CENTRAL/W MA AND N CT UNDER SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES 6-6.5 C/KM. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT SO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE. NOTING SOME DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO SW CT AND
MODELS SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING MOVING ALONG THE S COAST AND SE MA
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE NORTH AND NW OF THE DRY SLOT ACROSS CENTRAL AND W MA. BEST
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY HAS MOVED E OF NEW ENG SO DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS. SCT T-STORMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP MAINLY CENTRAL AND W MA. S WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

ISSUED SCA FOR NE MA COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO SE GUSTS TO 25
KT WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING A BIT AND SHIFTING TO S.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KALY 011750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE REGION...SOME LINGERING RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SRN VT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM
THIS AFTN....AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR.
FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER CENTRAL/NE PA AND CENTRAL NY COULD
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS.
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1 OVER OUR
AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE REGION...SOME LINGERING RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SRN VT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM
THIS AFTN....AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR.
FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER CENTRAL/NE PA AND CENTRAL NY COULD
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS.
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1 OVER OUR
AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE REGION...SOME LINGERING RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SRN VT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM
THIS AFTN....AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR.
FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER CENTRAL/NE PA AND CENTRAL NY COULD
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS.
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1 OVER OUR
AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE REGION...SOME LINGERING RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SRN VT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM
THIS AFTN....AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR.
FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER CENTRAL/NE PA AND CENTRAL NY COULD
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS.
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1 OVER OUR
AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENREALLY IMRPOVED TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS DUE TO LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY SCT IN NATURE. FOR
NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR VCSH PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTN...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR -SHRA...USING TIMING SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE OF THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE W-SW AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS.

CHC FOR SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO
GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATER THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
FOR KPSF/KGFL...AND PERHAPS KPOU TOO...LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A LIGHT WEST BREEZE IN
PLACE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR FOG AT
KPSF/KGFL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTN. LIGHT BREEZE AT KALB SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST
THERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME
DIURNAL SCT CU AT 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011447
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1047 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND
WILL EXIT OFFSHORE AFTER 11 AM. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED
ALONG THE CT COAST AND WILL BE LIFTING N ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLEAR SLOT ALONG AND SOUTH OF LI SOUND
MOVING EAST AND THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NJ AND SE NY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH DRYING SO WE DO EXPECT AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DO
GENERATE DECENT INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS CT INTO SE NY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT...UP TO 6.5 C/KM. SO WE DO
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REDEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW ENG THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST. THERE IS OVERALL DRYING IN THE COLUMN AS
PWATS AND KI DROP WHICH IS A NEGATIVE FACTOR BUT THERE IS STILL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCT CONVECTION PER THE
HI-RES MODELS. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST
BUT STILL 35-40 KT WHICH IS PLENTY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS DECREASING SO
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR.

HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S IN THE
CT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

ISSUED SCA FOR NE MA COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO SE GUSTS TO 25
KT WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING A BIT AND SHIFTING TO S.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011447
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1047 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND
WILL EXIT OFFSHORE AFTER 11 AM. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED
ALONG THE CT COAST AND WILL BE LIFTING N ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLEAR SLOT ALONG AND SOUTH OF LI SOUND
MOVING EAST AND THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NJ AND SE NY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH DRYING SO WE DO EXPECT AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DO
GENERATE DECENT INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS CT INTO SE NY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT...UP TO 6.5 C/KM. SO WE DO
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REDEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW ENG THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST. THERE IS OVERALL DRYING IN THE COLUMN AS
PWATS AND KI DROP WHICH IS A NEGATIVE FACTOR BUT THERE IS STILL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCT CONVECTION PER THE
HI-RES MODELS. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST
BUT STILL 35-40 KT WHICH IS PLENTY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS DECREASING SO
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR.

HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S IN THE
CT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

ISSUED SCA FOR NE MA COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO SE GUSTS TO 25
KT WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING A BIT AND SHIFTING TO S.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011447
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1047 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND
WILL EXIT OFFSHORE AFTER 11 AM. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED
ALONG THE CT COAST AND WILL BE LIFTING N ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLEAR SLOT ALONG AND SOUTH OF LI SOUND
MOVING EAST AND THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NJ AND SE NY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH DRYING SO WE DO EXPECT AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DO
GENERATE DECENT INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS CT INTO SE NY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT...UP TO 6.5 C/KM. SO WE DO
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REDEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW ENG THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST. THERE IS OVERALL DRYING IN THE COLUMN AS
PWATS AND KI DROP WHICH IS A NEGATIVE FACTOR BUT THERE IS STILL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCT CONVECTION PER THE
HI-RES MODELS. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST
BUT STILL 35-40 KT WHICH IS PLENTY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS DECREASING SO
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR.

HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S IN THE
CT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

ISSUED SCA FOR NE MA COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO SE GUSTS TO 25
KT WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING A BIT AND SHIFTING TO S.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011447
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1047 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...
LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND
WILL EXIT OFFSHORE AFTER 11 AM. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED
ALONG THE CT COAST AND WILL BE LIFTING N ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLEAR SLOT ALONG AND SOUTH OF LI SOUND
MOVING EAST AND THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NJ AND SE NY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH DRYING SO WE DO EXPECT AT
LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DO
GENERATE DECENT INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS CT INTO SE NY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT...UP TO 6.5 C/KM. SO WE DO
EXPECT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO REDEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW ENG THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST. THERE IS OVERALL DRYING IN THE COLUMN AS
PWATS AND KI DROP WHICH IS A NEGATIVE FACTOR BUT THERE IS STILL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCT CONVECTION PER THE
HI-RES MODELS. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST
BUT STILL 35-40 KT WHICH IS PLENTY FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS DECREASING SO
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR.

HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S IN THE
CT VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

ISSUED SCA FOR NE MA COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO SE GUSTS TO 25
KT WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING A BIT AND SHIFTING TO S.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KALY 011443
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE REGION...SOME LINGERING RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SRN VT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM
THIS AFTN....AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR.
FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER CENTRAL/NE PA AND CENTRAL NY COULD
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS.
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1 OVER OUR
AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011443
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE REGION...SOME LINGERING RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SRN VT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM
THIS AFTN....AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR.
FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER CENTRAL/NE PA AND CENTRAL NY COULD
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS.
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1 OVER OUR
AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011443
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE REGION...SOME LINGERING RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SRN VT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM
THIS AFTN....AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR.
FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER CENTRAL/NE PA AND CENTRAL NY COULD
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS.
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1 OVER OUR
AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011443
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT...WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE REGION...SOME LINGERING RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SRN VT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM
THIS AFTN....AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR.
FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER CENTRAL/NE PA AND CENTRAL NY COULD
MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND ALLOWING FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS.
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1 OVER OUR
AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011224
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
824 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 830 AM EDT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS HEAVY RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT HAS NOW GENERALLY
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. A NARROW STRIPE OF ONE
TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN EXTENDED FROM THE CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES...AND INTO SOUTHERN VT. THIS RAINFALL
CAUSED SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS AND
SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING/PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOW EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE WATER NOW RECEDING AND NO
IMMINENT THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...HAVE CANCELLED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW ROADS MAY STILL BE
CLOSED IN ULSTER COUNTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL WATER FULLY
RECEDES.

SOME RAIN IS STILL EXITING SOUTHERN VT..BUT SHOULD BE EAST
SHORTLY. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SCT ACTIVITY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM THIS AFTN....AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW
MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR. FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER
CENTRAL/NE PA COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND
ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST
THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO
SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
OCCURS. SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1
OVER OUR AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011224
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
824 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 830 AM EDT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS HEAVY RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT HAS NOW GENERALLY
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. A NARROW STRIPE OF ONE
TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN EXTENDED FROM THE CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES...AND INTO SOUTHERN VT. THIS RAINFALL
CAUSED SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS AND
SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING/PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOW EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE WATER NOW RECEDING AND NO
IMMINENT THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...HAVE CANCELLED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW ROADS MAY STILL BE
CLOSED IN ULSTER COUNTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL WATER FULLY
RECEDES.

SOME RAIN IS STILL EXITING SOUTHERN VT..BUT SHOULD BE EAST
SHORTLY. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SCT ACTIVITY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM THIS AFTN....AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW
MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR. FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER
CENTRAL/NE PA COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND
ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST
THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO
SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
OCCURS. SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1
OVER OUR AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011224
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
824 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 830 AM EDT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS HEAVY RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT HAS NOW GENERALLY
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. A NARROW STRIPE OF ONE
TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN EXTENDED FROM THE CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES...AND INTO SOUTHERN VT. THIS RAINFALL
CAUSED SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS AND
SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING/PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOW EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE WATER NOW RECEDING AND NO
IMMINENT THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...HAVE CANCELLED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW ROADS MAY STILL BE
CLOSED IN ULSTER COUNTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL WATER FULLY
RECEDES.

SOME RAIN IS STILL EXITING SOUTHERN VT..BUT SHOULD BE EAST
SHORTLY. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SCT ACTIVITY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM THIS AFTN....AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW
MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR. FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER
CENTRAL/NE PA COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND
ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST
THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO
SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
OCCURS. SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1
OVER OUR AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011224
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
824 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 830 AM EDT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS HEAVY RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT HAS NOW GENERALLY
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. A NARROW STRIPE OF ONE
TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN EXTENDED FROM THE CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES...AND INTO SOUTHERN VT. THIS RAINFALL
CAUSED SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS AND
SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING/PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOW EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE WATER NOW RECEDING AND NO
IMMINENT THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...HAVE CANCELLED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW ROADS MAY STILL BE
CLOSED IN ULSTER COUNTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL WATER FULLY
RECEDES.

SOME RAIN IS STILL EXITING SOUTHERN VT..BUT SHOULD BE EAST
SHORTLY. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SCT ACTIVITY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM THIS AFTN....AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW
MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR. FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER
CENTRAL/NE PA COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND
ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST
THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO
SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
OCCURS. SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1
OVER OUR AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011224
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
824 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 830 AM EDT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS HEAVY RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT HAS NOW GENERALLY
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. A NARROW STRIPE OF ONE
TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN EXTENDED FROM THE CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES...AND INTO SOUTHERN VT. THIS RAINFALL
CAUSED SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS AND
SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING/PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOW EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE WATER NOW RECEDING AND NO
IMMINENT THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...HAVE CANCELLED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW ROADS MAY STILL BE
CLOSED IN ULSTER COUNTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL WATER FULLY
RECEDES.

SOME RAIN IS STILL EXITING SOUTHERN VT..BUT SHOULD BE EAST
SHORTLY. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SCT ACTIVITY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM THIS AFTN....AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW
MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR. FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER
CENTRAL/NE PA COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND
ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST
THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO
SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
OCCURS. SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1
OVER OUR AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011224
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
824 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 830 AM EDT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS HEAVY RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT HAS NOW GENERALLY
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. A NARROW STRIPE OF ONE
TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN EXTENDED FROM THE CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES...AND INTO SOUTHERN VT. THIS RAINFALL
CAUSED SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS AND
SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING/PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. WITH THE
RAINFALL NOW EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE WATER NOW RECEDING AND NO
IMMINENT THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...HAVE CANCELLED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW ROADS MAY STILL BE
CLOSED IN ULSTER COUNTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL WATER FULLY
RECEDES.

SOME RAIN IS STILL EXITING SOUTHERN VT..BUT SHOULD BE EAST
SHORTLY. THE 3KM HRRR SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SCT ACTIVITY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORM THIS AFTN....AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTN. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW
MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR. FOR NOW...LOOKS FAIRLY CLOUDY
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT SOME BREAKS OVER
CENTRAL/NE PA COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA BY THIS AFTN...AND
ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST
THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS BY THIS AFTN...SO
SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
OCCURS. SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR DAY 1
OVER OUR AREA...AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT OUR THINKING AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWS 80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011155
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011155
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 011155
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011155
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OCCASIONALLY IFR AT KPSF...WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD MORE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT
MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z/WED. IN THEIR WAKE...LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 20Z-
23Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE
WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVEN SOME BORDERLINE IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR AT KPSF AFTER 07Z/THU...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AT 8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011142
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
742 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS COMBINING WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE
RACING NORTHEAST ABOUT 45 MPH. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. NOTED A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THAT MEANS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE GROUND.

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS. SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS LACKING
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LEADING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THE MOVE
FARTHER EAST.

THE LARGER QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DEEPER INSTABILITY CAN BE
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A QUICK
INCREASE OF CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WE ALSO NOTED THE ARRIVAL OF
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO FOCUS THIS
ENERGY. THAT SAID...WE DO NOT SEEM TO MAXIMIZE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME. THUS...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. THINKING IS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR HAIL.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2.0 INCHES INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011142
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
742 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS COMBINING WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE
RACING NORTHEAST ABOUT 45 MPH. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. NOTED A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THAT MEANS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE GROUND.

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS. SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS LACKING
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LEADING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THE MOVE
FARTHER EAST.

THE LARGER QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DEEPER INSTABILITY CAN BE
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A QUICK
INCREASE OF CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WE ALSO NOTED THE ARRIVAL OF
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO FOCUS THIS
ENERGY. THAT SAID...WE DO NOT SEEM TO MAXIMIZE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME. THUS...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. THINKING IS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR HAIL.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2.0 INCHES INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011142
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
742 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS COMBINING WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE
RACING NORTHEAST ABOUT 45 MPH. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. NOTED A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THAT MEANS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE GROUND.

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS. SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS LACKING
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LEADING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THE MOVE
FARTHER EAST.

THE LARGER QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DEEPER INSTABILITY CAN BE
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A QUICK
INCREASE OF CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WE ALSO NOTED THE ARRIVAL OF
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO FOCUS THIS
ENERGY. THAT SAID...WE DO NOT SEEM TO MAXIMIZE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME. THUS...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. THINKING IS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR HAIL.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2.0 INCHES INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011142
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
742 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS COMBINING WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE
RACING NORTHEAST ABOUT 45 MPH. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. NOTED A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THAT MEANS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE GROUND.

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS. SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS LACKING
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LEADING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THE MOVE
FARTHER EAST.

THE LARGER QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DEEPER INSTABILITY CAN BE
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A QUICK
INCREASE OF CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WE ALSO NOTED THE ARRIVAL OF
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO FOCUS THIS
ENERGY. THAT SAID...WE DO NOT SEEM TO MAXIMIZE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME. THUS...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. THINKING IS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR HAIL.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2.0 INCHES INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011142
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
742 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS COMBINING WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE
RACING NORTHEAST ABOUT 45 MPH. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. NOTED A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THAT MEANS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE GROUND.

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS. SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS LACKING
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LEADING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THE MOVE
FARTHER EAST.

THE LARGER QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DEEPER INSTABILITY CAN BE
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A QUICK
INCREASE OF CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WE ALSO NOTED THE ARRIVAL OF
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO FOCUS THIS
ENERGY. THAT SAID...WE DO NOT SEEM TO MAXIMIZE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME. THUS...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. THINKING IS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR HAIL.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2.0 INCHES INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 011027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 010806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 010806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 6
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON TODAY. SPECIFICALLY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
INCLUDES GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. FOR THIS MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
MORNING. PWATS ACRS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS GENERALLY IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL
BE IN THE MORNING WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS.
SOME BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
15-25 KT RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING
INITIALLY AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500
J/KG BASED ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH
ROUGHLY SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEPT MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IF THE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-
SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT-SAT NT...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MAY INTERACT WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
AT LEAST FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND
LOWER/MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON NT...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS.

TUE...THE NEXT FRONT MAY APPROACH BY LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 75-80
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON EDT FOR GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...ULSTER...
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
LOOKS TO BE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER
FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010732
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
332 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS. SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS LACKING
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LEADING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THE MOVE
FARTHER EAST.

THE LARGER QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DEEPER INSTABILITY CAN BE
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A QUICK
INCREASE OF CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WE ALSO NOTED THE ARRIVAL OF
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO FOCUS THIS
ENERGY. THAT SAID...WE DO NOT SEEM TO MAXIMIZE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME. THUS...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. THINKING IS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR HAIL.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2.0 INCHES INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN THE LOWEST
CONFIDENCE PART OF THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR.

TODAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA MAY REDEVELOP.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010732
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
332 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS. SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS LACKING
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LEADING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THE MOVE
FARTHER EAST.

THE LARGER QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DEEPER INSTABILITY CAN BE
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A QUICK
INCREASE OF CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WE ALSO NOTED THE ARRIVAL OF
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO FOCUS THIS
ENERGY. THAT SAID...WE DO NOT SEEM TO MAXIMIZE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME. THUS...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. THINKING IS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR HAIL.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2.0 INCHES INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN THE LOWEST
CONFIDENCE PART OF THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR.

TODAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA MAY REDEVELOP.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010732
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
332 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS. SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS LACKING
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LEADING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THE MOVE
FARTHER EAST.

THE LARGER QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DEEPER INSTABILITY CAN BE
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A QUICK
INCREASE OF CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WE ALSO NOTED THE ARRIVAL OF
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO FOCUS THIS
ENERGY. THAT SAID...WE DO NOT SEEM TO MAXIMIZE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME. THUS...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. THINKING IS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR HAIL.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2.0 INCHES INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN THE LOWEST
CONFIDENCE PART OF THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR.

TODAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA MAY REDEVELOP.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010729
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
329 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS...AND A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS. SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS LACKING
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
LEADING TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AS THE MOVE
FARTHER EAST.

THE LARGER QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DEEPER INSTABILITY CAN BE
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A QUICK
INCREASE OF CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WE ALSO NOTED THE ARRIVAL OF
RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO FOCUS THIS
ENERGY. THAT SAID...WE DO NOT SEEM TO MAXIMIZE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AT THE SAME TIME. THUS...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. THINKING IS FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR HAIL.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2.0 INCHES INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE. THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECTING
MOST OF THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

 * SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
 * LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE IN
PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MID LVL RIDGES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
INTRODUCES A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THERE REMAINS A FRONT STALLED TO THE S...WITH
SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE SUGGESTING SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION AWAY FROM THE
COAST WERE SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE...IT/S NOT JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN
OURSELVES WITH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK PACKET OF
ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE
OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST
LIFT ALONG THE SRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SAT.
THERE ARE TWO CAMPS HERE...GFS AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH QPF
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE ECMWF AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITHOUT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT IN EITHER CASE GIVEN HOW WEAK THE
WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN THE LOWEST
CONFIDENCE PART OF THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR.

TODAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCATTERED TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCT TSRA MAY REDEVELOP.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ANY LINGERING SWELL
ABOVE 5 FT WILL RECEDE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET BOATING WX EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.

SAT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSELY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S
COAST ON SAT. IF IT PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH...A PERIOD OF SWELLS
EXCEEDING 5 FT IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET BOATING
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 010530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES
CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY
THE MODELS WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 010530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES
CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY
THE MODELS WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES
CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY
THE MODELS WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES
CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY
THE MODELS WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OF IMPACT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 0630Z-0800Z/WED. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME THUNDER...AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS WINDOW...THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH...BUT IFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z-13Z/WED.

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-16Z/WED. THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
19Z-22Z/WED. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AT 5-10 KT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH MAY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION...AND
GUST INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING AT 8-12 KT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AT
8-12 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KT AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 010422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES
CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY
THE MODELS WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 010422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES
CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WILL HAVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY
THE MODELS WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 010254
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010254
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010254
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010254
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION.
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY
BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY
/GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010246
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1046 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWING IT WILL LIKELY NOT STAY THAT
WAY ALL NIGHT. DECENT CONVECTION ALREADY ACROSS NORTHEAST PA INTO
NY STATE. THAT SHOULD BE OUR AIR MASS LATER TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE ABOUT 6C/KM..,INDICATING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. AT THIS POINT...NOT AS CONFIDENT WE WILL
SEE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN RISK WOULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREVIOUS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT DO
EXPECT SOME TWEAKS WILL BE MADE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...THERE
IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SCATTERED
ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS. WHILE THERE
IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...THE
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG
WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST
OVER 1000 J/KG. A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF
SHEAR...0- 6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE
OVER 100 M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM
POSSIBLE EARLY WED EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE
COLD WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF
OF THE S COAST ON THU AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU
WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO
EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH
PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT
THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT
ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING...BUT IFR STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LATE TONIGHT. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCT T-STORMS MAY REDEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010246
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1046 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWING IT WILL LIKELY NOT STAY THAT
WAY ALL NIGHT. DECENT CONVECTION ALREADY ACROSS NORTHEAST PA INTO
NY STATE. THAT SHOULD BE OUR AIR MASS LATER TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE ABOUT 6C/KM..,INDICATING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. AT THIS POINT...NOT AS CONFIDENT WE WILL
SEE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN RISK WOULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREVIOUS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT DO
EXPECT SOME TWEAKS WILL BE MADE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...THERE
IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SCATTERED
ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS. WHILE THERE
IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...THE
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG
WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST
OVER 1000 J/KG. A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF
SHEAR...0- 6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE
OVER 100 M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM
POSSIBLE EARLY WED EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE
COLD WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF
OF THE S COAST ON THU AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU
WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO
EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH
PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT
THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT
ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING...BUT IFR STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LATE TONIGHT. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCT T-STORMS MAY REDEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010246
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1046 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWING IT WILL LIKELY NOT STAY THAT
WAY ALL NIGHT. DECENT CONVECTION ALREADY ACROSS NORTHEAST PA INTO
NY STATE. THAT SHOULD BE OUR AIR MASS LATER TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE ABOUT 6C/KM..,INDICATING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. AT THIS POINT...NOT AS CONFIDENT WE WILL
SEE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN RISK WOULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREVIOUS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT DO
EXPECT SOME TWEAKS WILL BE MADE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...THERE
IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SCATTERED
ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS. WHILE THERE
IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...THE
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG
WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST
OVER 1000 J/KG. A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF
SHEAR...0- 6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE
OVER 100 M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM
POSSIBLE EARLY WED EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE
COLD WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF
OF THE S COAST ON THU AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU
WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO
EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH
PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT
THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT
ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING...BUT IFR STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LATE TONIGHT. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCT T-STORMS MAY REDEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010246
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1046 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWING IT WILL LIKELY NOT STAY THAT
WAY ALL NIGHT. DECENT CONVECTION ALREADY ACROSS NORTHEAST PA INTO
NY STATE. THAT SHOULD BE OUR AIR MASS LATER TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE ABOUT 6C/KM..,INDICATING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. AT THIS POINT...NOT AS CONFIDENT WE WILL
SEE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN RISK WOULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREVIOUS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT DO
EXPECT SOME TWEAKS WILL BE MADE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...THERE
IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SCATTERED
ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS. WHILE THERE
IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...THE
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG
WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST
OVER 1000 J/KG. A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF
SHEAR...0- 6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE
OVER 100 M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM
POSSIBLE EARLY WED EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE
COLD WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF
OF THE S COAST ON THU AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU
WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO
EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH
PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT
THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT
ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS
THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING...BUT IFR STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LATE TONIGHT. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCT T-STORMS MAY REDEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PASSES OVERHEAD THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO
LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY
LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE
ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND -1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF
THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ITS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER AND A PIECE OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. CAN
NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WILL HAVE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEPICTING HOW THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE AND BEHAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONGER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS BEGINS TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WEDNESDAY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

WIDESPREAD MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO MIX
AND THE AREA GETS IT THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME HAVE USED VICINITY SHOWERS TO ADDRESS THREAT AS DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCES TO TIME ACTIVITY TO INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AT KALB WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN
THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU-FRI
NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. INDEPENDENCE DAY-SAT
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUN:
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302306
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MAINLY QUIET ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS/SCT T-STORMS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. HRRR BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS W MA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS BATCH OF HEAVIER WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED T-STORMS LIKELY MOVES IN FROM THE SW TOWARD DAYBREAK. MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY 60-65 WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE BERKSHIRES.
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG.  A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING...BUT IFR STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LATE TONIGHT. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCT T-STORMS MAY REDEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302306
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MAINLY QUIET ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS/SCT T-STORMS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. HRRR BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS W MA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS BATCH OF HEAVIER WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED T-STORMS LIKELY MOVES IN FROM THE SW TOWARD DAYBREAK. MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY 60-65 WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE BERKSHIRES.
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG.  A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING...BUT IFR STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LATE TONIGHT. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCT T-STORMS MAY REDEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302306
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MAINLY QUIET ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS/SCT T-STORMS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. HRRR BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS W MA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS BATCH OF HEAVIER WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED T-STORMS LIKELY MOVES IN FROM THE SW TOWARD DAYBREAK. MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY 60-65 WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE BERKSHIRES.
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG.  A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING...BUT IFR STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LATE TONIGHT. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCT T-STORMS MAY REDEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KALY 302114
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
514 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 302114
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
514 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF NORMAL...IN THE 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FAIRLY
ZONAL ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE
FEATURE WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN. EITHER WAY WEAK FORCING IS
INDICATED BY THE MODELS ACROSS OUR AREA SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF SYSTEMS.

AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HEIGHTS RIDGING. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES. WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.


&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.70 INCHES (+2.91 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 6.16 INCHES (+2.61 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.06 INCHES (-0.37 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.94 INCHES (-1.19 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.13 INCHES (+3.73 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.55 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 6TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.20 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 302027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
427 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY..
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 1 AM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.62 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 302027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
427 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER
CNTRL-ERN PA MOVING INTO PARTS OF NJ. THIS AREA HAS BEEN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...AND HAD MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE COUPLED WITH MORE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.

FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR FCST AREA...THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TEND
TO BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF W-CNTRL PA...AND KEEP A THREAT
OF ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER ERN PA/NRN NJ...AS SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN
BERKS...AND NW CT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT
INDICATING THIS POSSIBILITY SE OF THE FCST AREA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.

A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN BTWN 09Z-12Z...AS ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE/WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IMPACT SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL VALUES EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING ANY BONAFIDE
SEVERE THREATS WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY /GENERALLY
LESS THAN 250 J/KG/. THERE ARE POCKETS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWALTER VALUES BTWN 0C AND
-1C...SO A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. PWATS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES S/SE OF THE IMMEDIATE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WITH BE ON THE MUGGIER SIDE WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...COMPLICATED FCST WITH MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVES MOVING THRU
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM BEING NEUTRAL-
TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH WILL HELP A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE MORNING...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE WEAK SFC LOW/SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER DEEP SHEAR ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE MORNING OR PRIOR TO
18Z TOMORROW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS. SOME
BANDS OF CONVECTION MAY FORM IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THE MORNING INITIALLY AT
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS BY 18Z...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH ROUGHLY
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER...THE NAM LINGERS THE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
UNTIL 21Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE. THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN H500/H250 JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z. THIS WOULD BE MEAN SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SEVERE WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...IF ENOUGH SFC HEATING OCCURS.

THE BETTER SHEAR IS DEPARTING IN THE MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO 30-40 KTS FOR
SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS /BOWING
SEGMENTS/ THE MAIN THREAT...AS THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY 5-6 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEPER IN THE
MORNING/VERY EARLY PM. HAIL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. SPC KEEPS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. WE
KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES/GRIDS UNTIL THIS BECOMES A BIT CLEARER. IF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE THE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S /MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT/ IN MANY OF
THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES
THAT THE SHORT-WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -6C TO -8C NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND -8C TO -11C TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U50S WITH SOME U40S TO
L50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU-THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST CONSENSUS FROM
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRIER
FORECAST FOR THU. THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR THU. CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN HALF.  CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALOFT FOR A COOL SECOND DAY FOR JULY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE H850 TEMPS OF +8C TO +12C OVER THE FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE.
HIGHS ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND U70S IN MANY OF THE
VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW 80F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND M60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. CLEARING SKIES
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD. LOWS IN THE U40S TO L50S WILL BE COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND MID AND U50S FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TOMORROW...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY..
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND A
COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR
URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
THIRD OF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR
RIVER FLOWS TO LOWER FROM THE PAST WEEK OF RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 1 AM JUNE 30 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.62 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL/IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AT THIS
TIME.  WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS TRACK THROUGH THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NEW YORK STATE AND INTO VERMONT.  NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...WE ARE STARTING
TO SEE SOME DIURNAL CU POP UP.  TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINES WHERE SEABREEZES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
70S.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CU WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE HEATING IS LOST.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN.  OVERNIGHT...INCREASED HUMIDITY
/DEWPOINTS/ WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG.  A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AT THIS
TIME.  WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS TRACK THROUGH THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NEW YORK STATE AND INTO VERMONT.  NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...WE ARE STARTING
TO SEE SOME DIURNAL CU POP UP.  TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINES WHERE SEABREEZES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
70S.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CU WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE HEATING IS LOST.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN.  OVERNIGHT...INCREASED HUMIDITY
/DEWPOINTS/ WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG.  A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AT THIS
TIME.  WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS TRACK THROUGH THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NEW YORK STATE AND INTO VERMONT.  NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...WE ARE STARTING
TO SEE SOME DIURNAL CU POP UP.  TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINES WHERE SEABREEZES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
70S.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CU WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE HEATING IS LOST.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN.  OVERNIGHT...INCREASED HUMIDITY
/DEWPOINTS/ WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG.  A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AT THIS
TIME.  WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS TRACK THROUGH THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NEW YORK STATE AND INTO VERMONT.  NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...WE ARE STARTING
TO SEE SOME DIURNAL CU POP UP.  TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINES WHERE SEABREEZES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
70S.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CU WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE HEATING IS LOST.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN.  OVERNIGHT...INCREASED HUMIDITY
/DEWPOINTS/ WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG.  A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301734
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
134 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO BRING
TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING
INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER STEERING
FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR AND MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND
TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAYLIGHT ON THU...A POCKET OF STEEP
UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT
IN THE W AS WELL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF
THE REGION. SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301734
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
134 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO BRING
TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING
INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER STEERING
FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR AND MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND
TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAYLIGHT ON THU...A POCKET OF STEEP
UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT
IN THE W AS WELL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF
THE REGION. SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301734
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
134 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO BRING
TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING
INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER STEERING
FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR AND MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND
TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAYLIGHT ON THU...A POCKET OF STEEP
UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT
IN THE W AS WELL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF
THE REGION. SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301734
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
134 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO BRING
TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING
INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER STEERING
FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR AND MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND
TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAYLIGHT ON THU...A POCKET OF STEEP
UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT
IN THE W AS WELL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF
THE REGION. SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KALY 301717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 301717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 21Z-22Z...WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EXITS...THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THAT COULD TRACK THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...SO KEEPING VCSH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP
AND MOVEMENT CAN BE TRACKED.  AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE ARE NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR...AND
BORDERLINE IFR AT KPSF...FOG AND CEILINGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z...BUT STILL VCSH AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 301711
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH A TREND TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA OVER PA...NRN NJ...AND SRN ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA OVER PA. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS KEPT IN AFTER 18Z/2
PM WITH THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT /SHOWALTER INDICES
AROUND 0C OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE/.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DOMINATE...AND THE BETTER CHC OF GETTING INTO
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS PA AND W-CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER TEMPS. ANOTHER IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...GENERALLY
SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS...AND MAINLY MID
AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME POCKETS OF L70S SOME OF THE
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301402
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO
BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING
INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER STEERING
FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR AND MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND
TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAYLIGHT ON THU...A POCKET OF STEEP
UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...


TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE
TODAY.  SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301402
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO
BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING
INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER STEERING
FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR AND MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND
TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAYLIGHT ON THU...A POCKET OF STEEP
UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...


TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE
TODAY.  SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KALY 301355
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
955 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRENDS IN SAELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST ALL THE REGION WILL BE CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AND ADVANCING TOWARD OUR REGION...BEGINNING TO AFFECT WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING
AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW MORE DETAILS ARE BELOW IN THE PREVIOUS AFD....

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EAST END OF LAKE
ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT- WAVE TROUGH.
THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE- 00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 301355
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
955 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRENDS IN SAELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST ALL THE REGION WILL BE CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AND ADVANCING TOWARD OUR REGION...BEGINNING TO AFFECT WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER...INCREASING
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING
AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

A FEW MORE DETAILS ARE BELOW IN THE PREVIOUS AFD....

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE EAST END OF LAKE
ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT- WAVE TROUGH.
THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE 18Z/TUE- 00Z/WED
TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS
UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT IN THE W AS WELL
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSS THE THE REGION WED
NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR
AND MODERATE MID LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAY ON THU...A POCKET
OF STEEP UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS
ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...


TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE
TODAY.  SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS
UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT IN THE W AS WELL
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSS THE THE REGION WED
NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR
AND MODERATE MID LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAY ON THU...A POCKET
OF STEEP UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS
ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...


TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE
TODAY.  SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS
UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT IN THE W AS WELL
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSS THE THE REGION WED
NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR
AND MODERATE MID LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAY ON THU...A POCKET
OF STEEP UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS
ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...


TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE
TODAY.  SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS
UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT IN THE W AS WELL
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSS THE THE REGION WED
NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR
AND MODERATE MID LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAY ON THU...A POCKET
OF STEEP UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS
ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...


TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE
TODAY.  SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KALY 301034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 301034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
634 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME LINGERING GROUND FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KPSF THROUGH
13Z/TUE...WITH LIFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/TUE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND MAY APPROACH KGFL BETWEEN 14Z-16Z...AND KALB
BETWEEN 15Z-17Z...WHILE REMAINING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KPOU
AND KPSF. THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE
WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT KGFL.

ONCE THIS INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS PASSES BY...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESP AT
KGFL AND KALB. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS.

ALSO...AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND ESPECIALLY CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/TUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...BUT WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE COULD
OCCUR AT KALB. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNSET...AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END THIS MORNING AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO OUR REGION AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND ISOLATED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.

A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK TO
OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JUNE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 4 PM JUNE 29 (DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL)

ALBANY NY: 6.63 INCHES (+2.96 INCHES)
GLENS FALLS: 5.87 INCHES (+2.44 INCHES)
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 4.03 INCHES (-0.27 INCHES)
BENNINGTON VT: 2.93 INCHES (-1.08 INCHES)
PITTSFIELD MA: 8.03 INCHES (+3.74 INCHES)

ALBANY NEEDS MORE 0.21 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10 WETTEST
JUNES SINCE 1826. THE WETTEST IS 8.74 INCHES SET BACK IN 2006.

JUNE 2015 IS ALREADY THE 7TH WETTEST FOR GLENS FALLS SINCE 1949.
THE WETTEST IS 8.20 INCHES SET BACK IN 1998.

POUGHKEEPSIE NEEDS MORE 1.23 INCHES TO MAKE IT INTO THE TOP 10
WETTEST JUNES SINCE 1949. THE WETTEST IS 9.82 INCHES SET BACK IN
2013.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11/WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SHOWALTER INDICES GO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN THE
18Z/TUE-00Z/WED TIME FRAME. THUS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEFOREHAND.

SB CAPES ARE RATHER LIMITED TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THIS AFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND TOO...WHICH
COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE
THREAT FOR TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT IT MAY GET HUNG UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE
MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR SE ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER AND NEAR
THE FCST AREA...SPOKES OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IN THE SW
FLOW...SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PWATS LOOK TO RISE BACK TO CLOSE TO 1.5
INCHES IN THE MOISTER AIR MASS. SOME BURSTS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER POPS MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE WARM FRONT TRYING
TO MOVE THROUGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WED-WED NIGHT...THE PARADE OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE NEUTRAL TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING IT TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ DURING THE MID-WEEK IN THE
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. A SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BE THE
KEY FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH THE SHORT-WAVE. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SFC HEATING OCCURS LIKE MANY SITUATIONS
THIS YEAR. THE GFS IS PAINTING MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
1000-2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE NAM IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS DOES STEEPEN
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER TO 6.0-6.6C/KM
FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS/CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. THE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER TO 35-50 KTS WITH THE SHORT-
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...MAYBE SOME SCATTERED SEVERE IF
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO THE
ENHANCE WORDING OF SOME GUSTY WINDS/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE DAY 2
MARGINAL CATEGORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR NOW. HIGHS ON WED WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH U60S
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND MID TO U70S OVER MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SPOTTY LOWER 80S OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT.

WED NIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE WILL PASS EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING AND IS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FOR FRI-FRI NT...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD SETTLE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SO THAT ANY POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES GENERALLY
REACHING 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI
NT/SAT AM MINS WILL BE COOL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SAT-SAT NT...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL TREND OF MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP FROM LAST NIGHT/S
CYCLE...THERE ARE STILL SOME HINTS THAT A SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCE...OR PERHAPS AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN IMPULSE
AND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK THE POPS A BIT...BUT STILL KEEP
LOW CHC POPS FOR MOST AREAS SAT AFTN-EVENING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH FUTURE FORECASTS MAY CONTINUE TO TREND MORE
OPTIMISTIC IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LESS INTERACTION
BETWEEN IMPULSES/MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR
SAT NT/SUN AM MINS.

SUN-MON...IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN FOR SUN-MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUN NT/MON AM RANGING FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF
WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE...ESP
THROUGH 08Z/TUE...BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

AFTER 16Z/TUESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL/KALB. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK FAIRLY LOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME AS OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. SOME GUSTS INTO TH