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000
FXUS61 KALY 250701
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
301 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BE UNSETTLED. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
GRADUALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
MAY DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...
RELAXING GRADIENT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION.  CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AND HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE HOURLY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
FURTHERMORE...HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS
SLIGHTLY PER THE LATEST 2M TEMPS IN THE HRRR AND THE RECENTLY
UPGRADED LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE.

THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STORM
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  AT
THIS TIME...ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS WEST OF OUR REGION TO KEEP MOST
OF THE DAY DRY.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATLANTIC ENTRAINMENT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.  PER THE LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
SO MOST OF THE WET WEATHER WILL BE JUST ABOUT TO EXIT OUR NEW
ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT. THE 1ST CDFNT PUSHES EAST
INTO NEW ENG EARLY SAT...AND THE MAIN FOCUS BCMS THE 500HPA CUTOFF
DROPPING SE FM THE UPR GRTLKS. A SECONDARY CDFNT IS PUSHING INTO THE
UPR GRTLKS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE -SHRA DRNG MUCH OF THE MID
DAY AS WELL IS SOME SUNNY INTERVALS AS THE RGN IS BTWN SYSTEMS SAT.
THE NAM IS MOST DISTINCT IN SHOWING THIS SEPARATION...BUT ITS
THERE IN THE GFS..AND LESS SO ON THE GEM.

BUT BY LATE SAT AFTN THE CUTOFF AND A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT MV
CROSS THE RGN...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA. CAPE VALUES
INCR TO 100-200 IN NAM/GFS. NAM HAS LI OF -1 IN SE LATE SAT. WORTH
MENTION OF ISOLD TRW IN SE.

SAT NT BRISK N-NW FLOW SETS UP IN WAKE OF DEPARTING CDFNT WITH
CAA INTO THE RGN INTO MON. ALL THE GUID HAS CUTOFF DEPARTING WELL
OFFSHORE...AS OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER EASTERN NA...WITH CUT OFFS
500 MILES E OF NEW ENG...AND IN THE GRT PLAINS...W/RIDGING FM
500HPA HIGH SE TWRD FLORIDA. MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS GRINDS TO A HALT
INTO MON NT.

AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH OVER HUDSON`S BAY RIDGES S INTO GRTLKS AND
SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. RGN REMAINS IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. WHILE THE
BIG PICTURE IS CLEAR THE AMNT OF CLOUDINESS VARIES SUN AND MONDAY
AMONG THE MDLS. OVERVIEW IS A VRBL CLOUDY DAY SUN WITH DCRG
CLOUDS MON. GFS HAS NUMEROUS CLOUDS WHERE TRRN ENHANCES BOTH
CLOUDS AND ISOLD -SHR OVER HIR TRRN.

TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BLO. SAT
NT USED 3HRLY TMPS AS MAX/MINS HAVE OLD 24 HR VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS MVNG INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE. THE MAJOR FEATURE IS THE OMEGA BLOCK...ON ITS WEST A
MASSIVE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW. DURING THE EFP MOST OF THE GUID TAKES
IT FROM THE S GRT PLAINS TO THE UPR GRTLKS TUE AND WED...THU INTO
FRI IT STALLS OVER UPR W GRTLKS. FURTHER E AT 500HA CUT OFF
ANTICYCLONE OVER HUDSON BAY AND RIDGE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS

AT THE SFC THE LARGE LOW IS VERTICAL AND TRACKS W/500HPA CUTOFF.
ALONG THE EAST COAST LARGE HI PRESSURE OVER HUDSON`S BAY CONTINUES
TO RIDGE DOWN THE E SEABOARD IN A CLASSIC APPALACHIAN DAMMING
MODE KEEPING TMPS NR OR SLIGHTLY BLOW NORMAL.

WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LARGELY GRIDLOCKED DURING THIS PERIOD
FCA IS AT THE TRANSITION BTWN THESE TWO POWERFUL SYSTEMS. THE GFS
HAS RIDGING DOMINATING INTO WED NT WITH MOSTLY FAIR AND
MODERATING CONDS TILL THEN. THE ECMWF HAS CLOUDS AND PCPN FM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO RGN TUE NT WITH FASTER BREAK DOWN OF RIDGING.
HPC KEEPS IT DRY TUE WITH INCG CHC POPS WED. AT THIS POINT TUES
AND TUES N SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE...WITH INCRG CLOUDS
AND CHC OF -SHRA TO END THE EFP AS INCRG SE INFLOW AND EVOLVING
CSTL FNT ALONG EAST COAST FOCUS PCPN THREAT.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC...BUT GIVEN ALL THE MDLS RIDGE PLACEMENT IT
COULD REMAIN DRY INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.

COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  WITH SUNRISE...WIND
MAGNITUDES WILL INCREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS WITH A
DIRECTIONAL TREND TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.

SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY APPROACHES WITH LOWERING
CIGS THIS EVENING...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES.  AT THIS
TIME WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY OVERNIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BELOW 30 PERCENT TOMORROW...

RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED ACROSS THE REGION AS RH VALUES ARE
BEGINNING TO RISE AND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED...WITH RH VALUES
RISING TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
5 MPH.

FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SET UP FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS FOR
MOST AREAS TO REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS PRESENT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/LFM
HYDROLOGY...LFM








000
FXUS61 KALY 250550
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BE UNSETTLED. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
GRADUALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
MAY DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...
RELAXING GRADIENT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION.  CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AND HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE HOURLY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
FURTHERMORE...HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS
SLIGHTLY PER THE LATEST 2M TEMPS IN THE HRRR AND THE RECENTLY
UPGRADED LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE.

THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STORM
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  AT
THIS TIME...ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS WEST OF OUR REGION TO KEEP MOST
OF THE DAY DRY.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATLANTIC ENTRAINMENT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.  PER THE LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
SO MOST OF THE WET WEATHER WILL BE JUST ABOUT TO EXIT OUR NEW
ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT. THE 1ST CDFNT PUSHES EAST
INTO NEW ENG EARLY SAT...AND THE MAIN FOCUS BCMS THE 500HPA CUTOFF
DROPPING SE FM THE UPR GRTLKS. A SNCDRY CDFNT IS PUSHING INTO THE
UPR GRTLKS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE -SHRA DRNG MUCH OF THE MID
DAY AS WELL IS SOME SUNNY INTERVALS AS THE RGN IS BTWN SYSTEMS SAT.
THE NAM IS MOST DISTINCT IN SHOWING THIS SEPARATION...BUT ITS
THERE IN THE GFS..AND LESS SO ON THE GEM.

BUT BY LATE SAT AFTN THE CUTOFF AND A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT MV
CROSS THE RGN...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA. CAPE VALUES
INCR TO 100-200 IN NAM/GFS. NAM HAS LI OF -1 IN SE LATE SAT. WORTH
MENTION OF ISOLD TRW IN SE.

SAT NT BRISK N-NW FLOW SETS UP IN WAKE OF DEPARTING CDFNT WITH
CAA INTO THE RGN INTO MON. ALL THE GUID HAS CUTOFF DEPARTING WELL
OFFSHORE...AS OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER EASTERN NA...WITH CUT OFFS
500 MILES E OF NEW ENG...AND IN THE GRT PLAINS...W/RIDGING FM
500HPA HIGH SE TWRD FLORIDA. MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS GRINDS TO A HALT
INTO MON NT.

AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH OVER HUDSON`S BAY RIDGES S INTO GRTLKS AND
SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. RGN REMAINS IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. WHILE THE
BIG PICTURE IS CLEAR THE AMNT OF CLOUDINESS VARIES SUN AND MONDAY
AMONG THE MDLS. OVERVIEW IS A VRBL CLOUDY DAY SUN WITH DCRG
CLOUDS MON. GFS HAS NUMEROUS CLOUDS WHERE TRRN ENHANCES BOTH
CLOUDS AND ISOLD -SHR OVER HIR TRRN.

TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BLO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AS WE
WILL BE TRACKING A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW EMERGING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. SEVERAL DIFFERENT
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL INFLUENCE THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT OUR REGION BEING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF
THE MOISTURE TO BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH...OR FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.

REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH A MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.

COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  WITH SUNRISE...WIND
MAGNITUDES WILL INCREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS WITH A
DIRECTIONAL TREND TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.

SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY APPROACHES WITH LOWERING
CIGS THIS EVENING...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES.  AT THIS
TIME WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY OVERNIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BELOW 30 PERCENT TOMORROW...

RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED ACROSS THE REGION AS RH VALUES ARE
BEGINNING TO RISE AND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED...WITH RH VALUES
RISING TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
5 MPH.

FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SET UP FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS FOR
MOST AREAS TO REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS PRESENT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/LFM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/LFM
HYDROLOGY...LFM







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000
FXUS61 KBOX 250546
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
146 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND
FROM THE WEST...PROVIDING CHILLY TEMPERATURES BUT THEN REBOUNDING
NICELY FRIDAY WITH MILD CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE
THEN BRINGS RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRYING
TREND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
145 AM UPDATE...
AREA OF CLOUDS E OF NEW ENG WITH BACK EDGE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE
AND E COASTAL MA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEARING TAKING
PLACE. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. TEMPS NOT DROPPING AS QUICKLY
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO WE RAISED TEMPS AND DROPPED THE FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...

REAL NICE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE REGION.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH STRONG APRIL
SUN ANGLE WARMING AIRMASS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S INLAND. COOLER
ALONG THE COAST WITH DEVELOPING SEABREEZES BUT OVERALL A NICE DAY
BY LATE APR STANDARDS AND CONSIDERING WHAT THE WEEKEND AND EXTENDED
FORECAST OFFERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

ROBUST TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES
MOVING EASTWARD AND ARRIVES HERE FRI NIGHT. MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM...WITH PARENT LOW ENTERING WESTERN NY
EARLY SAT...WHILE SECONDARY LOW SPINS UP NEAR LONG ISLAND NY. RAIN
OVERSPREADS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA 8 PM TO 2 AM...THEN
ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA 2 AM TO 8 AM. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST ATLANTIC INFLOW AND JET DYNAMICS TOWARD 12Z
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...LOW CONF ON WASHOUT
* UNSEASONABLE TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MID NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER THE EC IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE ON PUSHING OUT THE BLOCKING PATTERN THEN THE GFS.
OVERALL CONTINUED FOCUSING THE FORECAST BASE ON THE ENSEMBLES AS
THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS STILL SOMEWHAT SPREAD OUT. HOWEVER
WITH BOTH THE NAO AND AO FORECASTED TO BE NEGATIVE AND WITH THE
PNA EXPECTED TO BE MORE POSITIVE...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
OF A BLOCKING/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION PUSHING A DOUBLE BARREL LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL
LOW WHICH CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION BY WOBBLING OVER THE
MARITIMES INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER A CLOSED TROUGH/LOW OVER THE ROCKIES
ON MONDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE FORCED EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN US
BY WED IN A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK SETUP AS WARMING RIDGES BUILD
STRONGLY OVER THE WRN US.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...
A DOUBLE BARROW LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AGREE THAT HEAVY PRECIP WILL OCCUR SAT MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS THANKS TO GOOD ATLANTIC MOISTURE PLUME AND DESCENT
JET DYNAMICS. BELIEVE THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THE
NW PORTION OF THE LOW. AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION...ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP...MORE SHOWERY WEATHER... WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SO THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY. DURING THE EVENING HOURS THE
REGION LOSES THE GOOD MOISTURE PLUME HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
MOISTURE MAY MOVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. YET THE JET DYNAMICS
ARE NOT IN FAVOR FOR HEAVY RAIN...SO HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
MORE SHOWERY WEATHER SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY SO HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER FOR NOW. HOWEVER
FOCUSED MORE ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE THE BETTER
PARAMETERS ARE LOCATED.

AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES...EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY RESULTING IN A MUCH COOLER COAST THEN ORIGINALLY THOUGH.
HAVE DROP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. HOWEVER ACROSS
THE CT VALLEY...IF CLOUDS BREAK OUT THEN TEMPS COULD SOAR INTO THE
MID 50S THANKS TO THE HIGH APRIL SUNSHINE.  ANY ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
TRACK OF THE LOW COULD CAUSE CHANGES IN THE TEMPS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES
DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER WITH THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE APPEARS THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH THE DEPARTING LOW MOVING OFFSHORE
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...INCREASING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
BLOCKING PATTERN APPEARS TO SET-UP OVER THE REGION DURING THE MID
TO PERHAPS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...APPEARS THAT A TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS CLOUDY SKIES. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AND EXPECT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP. HOWEVER HAVE A
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN EXACTLY EACH ROUND OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR AND
WHERE THE HEAVIEST WILL RESIDE. FOR NOW...HAVE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT COOL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE

TODAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS...SEABREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR IN THE EVENING THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR LATE TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR DURING SAT. RAIN OVERSPREADS
WESTERN CT/MA 03Z-06Z THEN INTO RI AND EASTERN MA 06Z-12Z. RAIN
WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERY PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF
A TSTM SAT AFTERNOON OVER THE ISLANDS. E/NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30
KT POSSIBLE AT ACK DURING SAT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING OF THE SEA BREEZE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOME SHOWERY WX
POSSIBLE ON THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

730 PM UPDATE....

TONIGHT...
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 34 KTS. HOWEVER
THERE ARE A FEW SITES STILL AT 33KTS. BECAUSE THE TREND IS
DOWNWARD DUE TO THE RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT DECIDED TO CONVERT
GALES TO SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS WELL AS INTO
TONIGHT.

FRI...HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE REGION YIELDING LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEABREEZES NEAR SHORE. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

FRI NIGHT...RAIN OVERSPREADS THE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARD SUNRISE SAT. LOW RISK OF THUNDER SOUTH
WATERS. AS LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TOWARD SUNRISE SAT WITH STRONGEST
WINDS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. S WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY
BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. N/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT KEEPING THE WINDS UP AS
WELL AS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TOMORROW HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...AROUND 10 MPH. EXPECT SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231-232-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KALY 250221
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1021 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR DIMINISHING WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW...ALONG WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME PERIODS OF
RAINFALL...AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1021 PM EDT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION HAS
FINALLY RELAXED...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE IS NOW LOCATED WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
NOSING DOWN INTO UPSTATE NY FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AS A
RESULT...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED GREATLY FROM EARLIER...WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 5
MPH OR LESS BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S...WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS SHOW AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AN ESTABLISHED WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL USHER
IN WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS ESTABLISHED WIND FLOW WILL MODERATE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
40S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE LAST MODEL RUN WITH THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION NOT REACHING OUR WESTERN AREAS OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. THIS DYNAMIC
DOUBLE BARRELED LOW SET UP WILL ARRIVE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A
VERY FAVORABLE REGION FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SET UP WITH
ANALYSIS OF THE 250 HPA WINDS SHOWING A MORE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AS WE PROGRESS
PAST 12Z SATURDAY. ALONG WITH STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
ENHANCING VERTICAL GROWTH UPSTREAM OF THE COASTAL LOW
CENTER...HIGHEST QPF VALUES FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE IN AREAS AROUND THE IMMEDIATE
CAPITAL REGION POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. THE NORTHERN SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHEAR OUT BUT QPF TOTALS ARE STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS OTHER MODELS DO HAVE PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHERN ZONES PERSISTING FURTHER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH
LOWER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
WILL BE POLEWARD OF THE MAIN 300 HPA FLOW AND LATEST DATA SHOWS A
POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW SETTING UP WELL EAST OF CAPE COD. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS EXIST AT THIS TIME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE POSITION
OF THIS POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW SHOW NO ACCORD BETWEEN THE MODEL
RESOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING BANDS OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH OUR REGION POSITIONED BETWEEN A SPRAWLING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD AIR BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA WITH A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL STILL BE A NORTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING...SO ONCE AGAIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AS WE WILL
BE TRACKING A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW EMERGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. SEVERAL DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL INFLUENCE THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT OUR REGION BEING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHEN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY MAKES
IT INTO OUR AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH...OR FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH A MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING
ON FRIDAY EVENING /00Z SATURDAY/.

CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 15-25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH ALL LOCATIONS
SEEING WINDS UNDER 5 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. KPOU/KGFL WILL SEE WINDS
DIMINISH QUICKER THAN KALB/KPSF.  LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL THEN BE
IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
MORNING ON FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A S-SE DIRECTION AT ABOUT 5-10 MPH FOR THE LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN ON FRIDAY. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ALL TAF SITES HAVING A BKN
MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK BY THE EVENING HOURS. IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH
00Z SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
FOR FRI NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BELOW 30 PERCENT TOMORROW...

RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED ACROSS THE REGION AS RH VALUES ARE
BEGINNING TO RISE AND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED...WITH RH VALUES
RISING TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
5 MPH.

FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SET UP FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS FOR
MOST AREAS TO REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS PRESENT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/LFM
HYDROLOGY...LFM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 250146
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
946 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND
FROM THE WEST...PROVIDING CHILLY TEMPERATURES BUT THEN REBOUNDING
NICELY FRIDAY WITH MILD CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE
THEN BRINGS RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRYING
TREND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
945 PM UPDATE...
WINDS STILL GUSTY...ESPECIALLY E NEW ENG BUT TREND WILL BE
DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. CLOUDS LURKING JUST OFFSHORE HAVE BACKED
IN OVER THE OUTER CAPE AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE BACK TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COMBINATION OF DIMINISHING WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY
NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BLEND OF ALL DATA SOURCES YIELDS MINS TONIGHT IN THE 30S
REGIONWIDE...EXCEPT UPPER 20S IN THE DEEPER INTERIOR VALLEYS SUCH
AS THE CT RVR VLY. THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE CITY OF
BOSTON...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE WINDS WILL NOT COMPLETELY
DIMINISH AND KEEP MIN TEMPS AROUND 40.

AS FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...THE GROWING SEASON HAS ONLY BEGUN
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. HERE ACROSS COASTAL RI AND SOUTH COASTAL MA
TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE M30S FOR A TIME FROM ABOUT 3 AM TO 7 AM.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST. GIVEN GROWING SEASON
IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS HERE WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY. DID NOT
INCLUDE COMMUNITIES NEAR NARRAGANSETT BAY AS WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT
DECOUPLE HERE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE U30S AND L40S. THUS LOWER RISK
OF WIDESPREAD FROST.

ELSEWHERE/INLAND TEMPS WILL BE COLDER HOWEVER NO HEADLINES GIVEN
GROWING SEASON FOR MOST LOCATIONS DOESN/T START UNTIL SOMETIME IN
MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

REAL NICE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE REGION.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH STRONG APRIL
SUN ANGLE WARMING AIRMASS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S INLAND. COOLER
ALONG THE COAST WITH DEVELOPING SEABREEZES BUT OVERALL A NICE DAY
BY LATE APR STANDARDS AND CONSIDERING WHAT THE WEEKEND AND EXTENDED
FORECAST OFFERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

ROBUST TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES
MOVING EASTWARD AND ARRIVES HERE FRI NIGHT. MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM...WITH PARENT LOW ENTERING WESTERN NY
EARLY SAT...WHILE SECONDARY LOW SPINS UP NEAR LONG ISLAND NY. RAIN
OVERSPREADS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA 8 PM TO 2 AM...THEN
ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA 2 AM TO 8 AM. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST ATLANTIC INFLOW AND JET DYNAMICS TOWARD 12Z
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...LOW CONF ON WASHOUT
* UNSEASONABLE TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MID NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER THE EC IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE ON PUSHING OUT THE BLOCKING PATTERN THEN THE GFS.
OVERALL CONTINUED FOCUSING THE FORECAST BASE ON THE ENSEMBLES AS
THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS STILL SOMEWHAT SPREAD OUT. HOWEVER
WITH BOTH THE NAO AND AO FORECASTED TO BE NEGATIVE AND WITH THE
PNA EXPECTED TO BE MORE POSITIVE...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
OF A BLOCKING/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION PUSHING A DOUBLE BARREL LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL
LOW WHICH CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION BY WOBBLING OVER THE
MARITIMES INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER A CLOSED TROUGH/LOW OVER THE ROCKIES
ON MONDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE FORCED EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN US
BY WED IN A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK SETUP AS WARMING RIDGES BUILD
STRONGLY OVER THE WRN US.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...
A DOUBLE BARROW LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AGREE THAT HEAVY PRECIP WILL OCCUR SAT MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS THANKS TO GOOD ATLANTIC MOISTURE PLUME AND DESCENT
JET DYNAMICS. BELIEVE THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THE
NW PORTION OF THE LOW. AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION...ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP...MORE SHOWERY WEATHER... WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SO THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY. DURING THE EVENING HOURS THE
REGION LOSES THE GOOD MOISTURE PLUME HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
MOISTURE MAY MOVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. YET THE JET DYNAMICS
ARE NOT IN FAVOR FOR HEAVY RAIN...SO HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
MORE SHOWERY WEATHER SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY SO HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER FOR NOW. HOWEVER
FOCUSED MORE ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE THE BETTER
PARAMETERS ARE LOCATED.

AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES...EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY RESULTING IN A MUCH COOLER COAST THEN ORIGINALLY THOUGH.
HAVE DROP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. HOWEVER ACROSS
THE CT VALLEY...IF CLOUDS BREAK OUT THEN TEMPS COULD SOAR INTO THE
MID 50S THANKS TO THE HIGH APRIL SUNSHINE.  ANY ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
TRACK OF THE LOW COULD CAUSE CHANGES IN THE TEMPS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES
DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER WITH THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE APPEARS THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH THE DEPARTING LOW MOVING OFFSHORE
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...INCREASING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
BLOCKING PATTERN APPEARS TO SET-UP OVER THE REGION DURING THE MID
TO PERHAPS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...APPEARS THAT A TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS CLOUDY SKIES. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AND EXPECT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP. HOWEVER HAVE A
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN EXACTLY EACH ROUND OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR AND
WHERE THE HEAVIEST WILL RESIDE. FOR NOW...HAVE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT COOL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH A DIMINISHING WIND.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS...SEABREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR TO START THEN QUICKLY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING WESTERN CT/MA 00Z-06Z THEN INTO RI AND EASTERN
MA 06Z-12Z. LOW RISK OF IFR TOWARD 12Z SAT. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
MAY INCREASING UP TO 25 KT TOWARD 12Z SAT ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING OF THE SEA BREEZE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOME SHOWERY WX
POSSIBLE ON THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

730 PM UPDATE....

TONIGHT...
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 34 KTS. HOWEVER
THERE ARE A FEW SITES STILL AT 33KTS. BECAUSE THE TREND IS
DOWNWARD DUE TO THE RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT DECIDED TO CONVERT
GALES TO SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS WELL AS INTO
TONIGHT.

FRI...HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE REGION YIELDING LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEABREEZES NEAR SHORE. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

FRI NIGHT...RAIN OVERSPREADS THE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARD SUNRISE SAT. LOW RISK OF THUNDER SOUTH
WATERS. AS LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TOWARD SUNRISE SAT WITH STRONGEST
WINDS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. S WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY
BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. N/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT KEEPING THE WINDS UP AS
WELL AS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TOMORROW HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...AROUND 10 MPH. EXPECT SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242325
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND
FROM THE WEST...PROVIDING CHILLY TEMPERATURES BUT THEN REBOUNDING
NICELY FRIDAY WITH MILD CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE
THEN BRINGS RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRYING
TREND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN RIGHT ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
STARTING TO LIGHT UP AND RH VALUES ARE INCREASING. THEREFORE HAVE
CANCELLED BOTH THE WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING. EXPECT
GUSTS TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT THEN DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY. ONCE THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP.
THEREFORE CONTINUED THE FROST ADVISORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

POWERFUL LATE SEASON OCCLUDED LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DIMINISHING
WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BLEND OF ALL DATA SOURCES YIELDS MINS TONIGHT IN THE 30S
REGIONWIDE...EXCEPT UPPER 20S IN THE DEEPER INTERIOR VALLEYS SUCH
AS THE CT RVR VLY. THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE CITY OF
BOSTON...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE WINDS WILL NOT COMPLETELY
DIMINISH AND KEEP MIN TEMPS AROUND 40.

AS FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...THE GROWING SEASON HAS ONLY BEGUN
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. HERE ACROSS COASTAL RI AND SOUTH COASTAL MA
TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE M30S FOR A TIME FROM ABOUT 3 AM TO 7 AM.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST. GIVEN GROWING SEASON
IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS HERE WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY. DID NOT
INCLUDE COMMUNITIES NEAR NARRAGANSETT BAY AS WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT
DECOUPLE HERE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE U30S AND L40S. THUS LOWER RISK
OF WIDESPREAD FROST.

ELSEWHERE/INLAND TEMPS WILL BE COLDER HOWEVER NO HEADLINES GIVEN
GROWING SEASON FOR MOST LOCATIONS DOESN/T START UNTIL SOMETIME IN
MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

REAL NICE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE REGION.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH STRONG APRIL
SUN ANGLE WARMING AIRMASS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S INLAND. COOLER
ALONG THE COAST WITH DEVELOPING SEABREEZES BUT OVERALL A NICE DAY
BY LATE APR STANDARDS AND CONSIDERING WHAT THE WEEKEND AND EXTENDED
FORECAST OFFERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

ROBUST TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES
MOVING EASTWARD AND ARRIVES HERE FRI NIGHT. MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM...WITH PARENT LOW ENTERING WESTERN NY
EARLY SAT...WHILE SECONDARY LOW SPINS UP NEAR LONG ISLAND NY. RAIN
OVERSPREADS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA 8 PM TO 2 AM...THEN
ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA 2 AM TO 8 AM. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST ATLANTIC INFLOW AND JET DYNAMICS TOWARD 12Z
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...LOW CONF ON WASHOUT
* UNSEASONABLE TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MID NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER THE EC IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE ON PUSHING OUT THE BLOCKING PATTERN THEN THE GFS.
OVERALL CONTINUED FOCUSING THE FORECAST BASE ON THE ENSEMBLES AS
THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS STILL SOMEWHAT SPREAD OUT. HOWEVER
WITH BOTH THE NAO AND AO FORECASTED TO BE NEGATIVE AND WITH THE
PNA EXPECTED TO BE MORE POSITIVE...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
OF A BLOCKING/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION PUSHING A DOUBLE BARREL LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL
LOW WHICH CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION BY WOBBLING OVER THE
MARITIMES INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER A CLOSED TROUGH/LOW OVER THE ROCKIES
ON MONDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE FORCED EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN US
BY WED IN A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK SETUP AS WARMING RIDGES BUILD
STRONGLY OVER THE WRN US.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...
A DOUBLE BARROW LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AGREE THAT HEAVY PRECIP WILL OCCUR SAT MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS THANKS TO GOOD ATLANTIC MOISTURE PLUME AND DESCENT
JET DYNAMICS. BELIEVE THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THE
NW PORTION OF THE LOW. AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION...ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP...MORE SHOWERY WEATHER... WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SO THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY. DURING THE EVENING HOURS THE
REGION LOSES THE GOOD MOISTURE PLUME HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
MOISTURE MAY MOVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. YET THE JET DYNAMICS
ARE NOT IN FAVOR FOR HEAVY RAIN...SO HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
MORE SHOWERY WEATHER SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY SO HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER FOR NOW. HOWEVER
FOCUSED MORE ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE THE BETTER
PARAMETERS ARE LOCATED.

AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES...EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY RESULTING IN A MUCH COOLER COAST THEN ORIGINALLY THOUGH.
HAVE DROP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. HOWEVER ACROSS
THE CT VALLEY...IF CLOUDS BREAK OUT THEN TEMPS COULD SOAR INTO THE
MID 50S THANKS TO THE HIGH APRIL SUNSHINE.  ANY ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
TRACK OF THE LOW COULD CAUSE CHANGES IN THE TEMPS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES
DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER WITH THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE APPEARS THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH THE DEPARTING LOW MOVING OFFSHORE
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...INCREASING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
BLOCKING PATTERN APPEARS TO SET-UP OVER THE REGION DURING THE MID
TO PERHAPS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...APPEARS THAT A TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS CLOUDY SKIES. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AND EXPECT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP. HOWEVER HAVE A
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN EXACTLY EACH ROUND OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR AND
WHERE THE HEAVIEST WILL RESIDE. FOR NOW...HAVE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT COOL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH A DIMINISHING WIND.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS...SEABREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR TO START THEN QUICKLY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING WESTERN CT/MA 00Z-06Z THEN INTO RI AND EASTERN
MA 06Z-12Z. LOW RISK OF IFR TOWARD 12Z SAT. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
MAY INCREASING UP TO 25 KT TOWARD 12Z SAT ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING OF THE SEA BREEZE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOME SHOWERY WX
POSSIBLE ON THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

730 PM UPDATE....

TONIGHT...
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 34 KTS. HOWEVER
THERE ARE A FEW SITES STILL AT 33KTS. BECAUSE THE TREND IS
DOWNWARD DUE TO THE RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT DECIDED TO CONVERT
GALES TO SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS WELL AS INTO
TONIGHT.

FRI...HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE REGION YIELDING LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEABREEZES NEAR SHORE. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

FRI NIGHT...RAIN OVERSPREADS THE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARD SUNRISE SAT. LOW RISK OF THUNDER SOUTH
WATERS. AS LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TOWARD SUNRISE SAT WITH STRONGEST
WINDS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. S WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY
BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. N/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT KEEPING THE WINDS UP AS
WELL AS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HAVE DROPPED THE RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS NORTHERN CT FOR THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE STILL GUSTY...THEY WILL BE DECREASING
RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. AS WELL...THE RH VALUES ARE
ALREADY INCREASING AND WILL BE OVER 30 PERCENT SOON. BECAUSE OF
THIS TREND DECIDED TO LET THE RED FLAG WARNING GO AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TOMORROW HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...AROUND 10 MPH. EXPECT SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 242322
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
722 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR DIMINISHING WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW...ALONG WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME PERIODS OF
RAINFALL...AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA. AT THE SAME
TIME...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
STILL GUSTING 20-30 MPH...THEY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES...AND WILL WIND UP
BEING LESS THAN 5 MPH BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHILLY TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS SHOW AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AN ESTABLISHED WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL USHER
IN WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS ESTABLISHED WIND FLOW WILL MODERATE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
40S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE LAST MODEL RUN WITH THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION NOT REACHING OUR WESTERN AREAS OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. THIS DYNAMIC
DOUBLE BARRELED LOW SET UP WILL ARRIVE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A
VERY FAVORABLE REGION FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SET UP WITH
ANALYSIS OF THE 250 HPA WINDS SHOWING A MORE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AS WE PROGRESS
PAST 12Z SATURDAY. ALONG WITH STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
ENHANCING VERTICAL GROWTH UPSTREAM OF THE COASTAL LOW
CENTER...HIGHEST QPF VALUES FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE IN AREAS AROUND THE IMMEDIATE
CAPITAL REGION POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. THE NORTHERN SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHEAR OUT BUT QPF TOTALS ARE STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS OTHER MODELS DO HAVE PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHERN ZONES PERSISTING FURTHER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH
LOWER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
WILL BE POLEWARD OF THE MAIN 300 HPA FLOW AND LATEST DATA SHOWS A
POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW SETTING UP WELL EAST OF CAPE COD. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS EXIST AT THIS TIME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE POSITION
OF THIS POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW SHOW NO ACCORD BETWEEN THE MODEL
RESOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING BANDS OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH OUR REGION POSITIONED BETWEEN A SPRAWLING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD AIR BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA WITH A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL STILL BE A NORTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING...SO ONCE AGAIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AS WE WILL
BE TRACKING A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW EMERGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. SEVERAL DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL INFLUENCE THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT OUR REGION BEING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHEN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY MAKES
IT INTO OUR AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH...OR FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH A MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING
ON FRIDAY EVENING /00Z SATURDAY/.

CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 15-25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH ALL LOCATIONS
SEEING WINDS UNDER 5 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. KPOU/KGFL WILL SEE WINDS
DIMINISH QUICKER THAN KALB/KPSF.  LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL THEN BE
IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
MORNING ON FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A S-SE DIRECTION AT ABOUT 5-10 MPH FOR THE LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN ON FRIDAY. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ALL TAF SITES HAVING A BKN
MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK BY THE EVENING HOURS. IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH
00Z SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
FOR FRI NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BELOW 30 PERCENT TOMORROW...

RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED ACROSS THE REGION AS RH VALUES ARE
BEGINNING TO RISE AND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED...WITH RH VALUES
RISING TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
5 MPH.

FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SET UP FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS FOR
MOST AREAS TO REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS PRESENT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/LFM
HYDROLOGY...LFM








000
FXUS61 KALY 242250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR DIMINISHING WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW...ALONG WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME PERIODS OF
RAINFALL...AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA. AT THE SAME
TIME...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
STILL GUSTING 20-30 MPH...THEY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES...AND WILL WIND UP
BEING LESS THAN 5 MPH BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHILLY TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS SHOW AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AN ESTABLISHED WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL USHER
IN WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS ESTABLISHED WIND FLOW WILL MODERATE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
40S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE LAST MODEL RUN WITH THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION NOT REACHING OUR WESTERN AREAS OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. THIS DYNAMIC
DOUBLE BARRELED LOW SET UP WILL ARRIVE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A
VERY FAVORABLE REGION FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SET UP WITH
ANALYSIS OF THE 250 HPA WINDS SHOWING A MORE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AS WE PROGRESS
PAST 12Z SATURDAY. ALONG WITH STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
ENHANCING VERTICAL GROWTH UPSTREAM OF THE COASTAL LOW
CENTER...HIGHEST QPF VALUES FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE IN AREAS AROUND THE IMMEDIATE
CAPITAL REGION POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. THE NORTHERN SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHEAR OUT BUT QPF TOTALS ARE STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS OTHER MODELS DO HAVE PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHERN ZONES PERSISTING FURTHER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH
LOWER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
WILL BE POLEWARD OF THE MAIN 300 HPA FLOW AND LATEST DATA SHOWS A
POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW SETTING UP WELL EAST OF CAPE COD. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS EXIST AT THIS TIME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE POSITION
OF THIS POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW SHOW NO ACCORD BETWEEN THE MODEL
RESOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING BANDS OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH OUR REGION POSITIONED BETWEEN A SPRAWLING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD AIR BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA WITH A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL STILL BE A NORTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING...SO ONCE AGAIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AS WE WILL
BE TRACKING A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW EMERGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. SEVERAL DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL INFLUENCE THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT OUR REGION BEING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHEN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY MAKES
IT INTO OUR AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH...OR FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH A MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 17-20 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 25-30 KT THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER DARK...WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BELOW 30 PERCENT TOMORROW...

RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED ACROSS THE REGION AS RH VALUES ARE
BEGINNING TO RISE AND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED...WITH RH VALUES
RISING TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
5 MPH.

FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SET UP FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS FOR
MOST AREAS TO REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS PRESENT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/LFM
HYDROLOGY...LFM








000
FXUS61 KALY 242042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT LEAVING US WITH A COLD NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL. FRIDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE RIGHT OVER OUR REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WE GO INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS WE
GO INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC AND THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL DECREASE WITH TIME. WITH LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 850 AND 925 HPA
REACHING THE SURFACE...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO PLUMMET BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE APRIL. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER
20S THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS SHOW AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AN ESTABLISHED WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL USHER
IN WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS ESTABLISHED WIND FLOW WILL MODERATE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
40S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE LAST MODEL RUN WITH THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION NOT REACHING OUR WESTERN AREAS OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. THIS DYNAMIC
DOUBLE BARRELED LOW SET UP WILL ARRIVE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A
VERY FAVORABLE REGION FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SET UP WITH
ANALYSIS OF THE 250 HPA WINDS SHOWING A MORE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AS WE PROGRESS
PAST 12Z SATURDAY. ALONG WITH STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
ENHANCING VERTICAL GROWTH UPSTREAM OF THE COASTAL LOW
CENTER...HIGHEST QPF VALUES FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE IN AREAS AROUND THE IMMEDIATE
CAPITAL REGION POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. THE NORTHERN SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHEAR OUT BUT QPF TOTALS ARE STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS OTHER MODELS DO HAVE PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHERN ZONES PERSISTING FURTHER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH
LOWER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
WILL BE POLEWARD OF THE MAIN 300 HPA FLOW AND LATEST DATA SHOWS A
POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW SETTING UP WELL EAST OF CAPE COD. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS EXIST AT THIS TIME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE POSITION
OF THIS POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW SHOW NO ACCORD BETWEEN THE MODEL
RESOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING BANDS OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH OUR REGION POSITIONED BETWEEN A SPRAWLING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD AIR BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA WITH A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL STILL BE A NORTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING...SO ONCE AGAIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AS WE WILL
BE TRACKING A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW EMERGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. SEVERAL DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL INFLUENCE THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT OUR REGION BEING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHEN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY MAKES
IT INTO OUR AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH...OR FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH A MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 17-20 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 25-30 KT THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER DARK...WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
EAST CENTRAL NEW YOUR EXCLUDING THE ADIRONDACKS REGION...

...HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BELOW 30 PERCENT TOMORROW...

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SET UP FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS FOR
MOST AREAS TO REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS PRESENT OVER
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ038>041-
     043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...LFM
HYDROLOGY...LFM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 241959
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND
FROM THE WEST...PROVIDING CHILLY TEMPERATURES BUT THEN REBOUNDING
NICELY FRIDAY WITH MILD CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE
THEN BRINGS RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRYING
TREND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
340 PM UPDATE...

POWERFUL LATE SEASON OCCLUDED LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DIMINISHING
WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BLEND OF ALL DATA SOURCES YIELDS MINS TONIGHT IN THE 30S
REGIONWIDE...EXCEPT UPPER 20S IN THE DEEPER INTERIOR VALLEYS SUCH
AS THE CT RVR VLY. THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE CITY OF
BOSTON...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE WINDS WILL NOT COMPLETELY
DIMINISH AND KEEP MIN TEMPS AROUND 40.

AS FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...THE GROWING SEASON HAS ONLY BEGUN
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. HERE ACROSS COASTAL RI AND SOUTH COASTAL MA
TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE M30S FOR A TIME FROM ABOUT 3 AM TO 7 AM.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST. GIVEN GROWING SEASON
IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS HERE WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY. DID NOT
INCLUDE COMMUNITIES NEAR NARRAGANSETT BAY AS WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT
DECOUPLE HERE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE U30S AND L40S. THUS LOWER RISK
OF WIDESPREAD FROST.

ELSEWHERE/INLAND TEMPS WILL BE COLDER HOWEVER NO HEADLINES GIVEN
GROWING SEASON FOR MOST LOCATIONS DOESN/T START UNTIL SOMETIME IN
MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

REAL NICE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE REGION.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH STRONG APRIL
SUN ANGLE WARMING AIRMASS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S INLAND. COOLER
ALONG THE COAST WITH DEVELOPING SEABREEZES BUT OVERALL A NICE DAY
BY LATE APR STANDARDS AND CONSIDERING WHAT THE WEEKEND AND EXTENDED
FORECAST OFFERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

ROBUST TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES
MOVING EASTWARD AND ARRIVES HERE FRI NIGHT. MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM...WITH PARENT LOW ENTERING WESTERN NY
EARLY SAT...WHILE SECONDARY LOW SPINS UP NEAR LONG ISLAND NY. RAIN
OVERSPREADS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA 8 PM TO 2 AM...THEN
ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA 2 AM TO 8 AM. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST ATLANTIC INFLOW AND JET DYNAMICS TOWARD 12Z
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...LOW CONF ON WASHOUT
* UNSEASONABLE TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MID NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER THE EC IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE ON PUSHING OUT THE BLOCKING PATTERN THEN THE GFS.
OVERALL CONTINUED FOCUSING THE FORECAST BASE ON THE ENSEMBLES AS
THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS STILL SOMEWHAT SPREAD OUT. HOWEVER
WITH BOTH THE NAO AND AO FORECASTED TO BE NEGATIVE AND WITH THE
PNA EXPECTED TO BE MORE POSITIVE...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
OF A BLOCKING/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION PUSHING A DOUBLE BARREL LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL
LOW WHICH CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION BY WOBBLING OVER THE
MARITIMES INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER A CLOSED TROUGH/LOW OVER THE ROCKIES
ON MONDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE FORCED EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN US
BY WED IN A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK SETUP AS WARMING RIDGES BUILD
STRONGLY OVER THE WRN US.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...
A DOUBLE BARROW LOW WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES THROUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AGREE THAT HEAVY PRECIP WILL OCCUR SAT MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS THANKS TO GOOD ATLANTIC MOISTURE PLUME AND DESCENT
JET DYNAMICS. BELIEVE THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THE
NW PORTION OF THE LOW. AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION...ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP...MORE SHOWERY WEATHER... WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SO THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY. DURING THE EVENING HOURS THE
REGION LOSES THE GOOD MOISTURE PLUME HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
MOISTURE MAY MOVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. YET THE JET DYNAMICS
ARE NOT IN FAVOR FOR HEAVY RAIN...SO HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
MORE SHOWERY WEATHER SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY SO HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER FOR NOW. HOWEVER
FOCUSED MORE ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHERE THE BETTER
PARAMETERS ARE LOCATED.

AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES...EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY RESULTING IN A MUCH COOLER COAST THEN ORIGINALLY THOUGH.
HAVE DROP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. HOWEVER ACROSS
THE CT VALLEY...IF CLOUDS BREAK OUT THEN TEMPS COULD SOAR INTO THE
MID 50S THANKS TO THE HIGH APRIL SUNSHINE.  ANY ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
TRACK OF THE LOW COULD CAUSE CHANGES IN THE TEMPS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES
DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER WITH THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE APPEARS THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH THE DEPARTING LOW MOVING OFFSHORE
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...INCREASING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
BLOCKING PATTERN APPEARS TO SET-UP OVER THE REGION DURING THE MID
TO PERHAPS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...APPEARS THAT A TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS CLOUDY SKIES. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AND EXPECT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP. HOWEVER HAVE A
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN EXACTLY EACH ROUND OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR AND
WHERE THE HEAVIEST WILL RESIDE. FOR NOW...HAVE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT COOL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE

4 PM UPDATE...

THROUGH 00Z...GUSTY NW WINDS 30-40 KT CONTINUE THEN BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. VFR AS WELL.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH A DIMINISHING WIND.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS...SEABREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR TO START THEN QUICKLY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING WESTERN CT/MA 00Z-06Z THEN INTO RI AND EASTERN
MA 06Z-12Z. LOW RISK OF IFR TOWARD 12Z SAT. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
MAY INCREASING UP TO 25 KT TOWARD 12Z SAT ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOME SHOWERY WX
POSSIBLE ON THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
NW GALES UNTIL 8 PM OR SO FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT.
STRONGEST WINDS NEAR SHORE.

FRI...HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE REGION YIELDING LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEABREEZES NEAR SHORE. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

FRI NIGHT...RAIN OVERSPREADS THE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARD SUNRISE SAT. LOW RISK OF THUNDER SOUTH
WATERS. AS LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TOWARD SUNRISE SAT WITH STRONGEST
WINDS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. S WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY
BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. N/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT KEEPING THE WINDS UP AS
WELL AS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET AND THEN
DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL. UNTIL THEN EXPECT NW WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND RH VALUES 15-25 PERCENT. RECENT RAINFALL
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENG WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...LESS RAINFALL OCCURRED IN THE CT VALLEY
THUS RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR CT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>021-026.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ020-021.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241940
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
340 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND
FROM THE WEST...PROVIDING CHILLY TEMPERATURES BUT THEN REBOUNDING
NICELY FRIDAY WITH MILD CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE
THEN BRINGS RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRYING
TREND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

340 PM UPDATE...

POWERFUL LATE SEASON OCCLUDED LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DIMINISHING
WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BLEND OF ALL DATA SOURCES YIELDS MINS TONIGHT IN THE 30S
REGIONWIDE...EXCEPT UPPER 20S IN THE DEEPER INTERIOR VALLEYS SUCH
AS THE CT RVR VLY. THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE CITY OF
BOSTON...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE WINDS WILL NOT COMPLETELY
DIMINISH AND KEEP MIN TEMPS AROUND 40.

AS FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...THE GROWING SEASON HAS ONLY BEGUN
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. HERE ACROSS COASTAL RI AND SOUTH COASTAL MA
TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE M30S FOR A TIME FROM ABOUT 3 AM TO 7 AM.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST. GIVEN GROWING SEASON
IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS HERE WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY. DID NOT
INCLUDE COMMUNITIES NEAR NARRAGANSETT BAY AS WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT
DECOUPLE HERE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE U30S AND L40S. THUS LOWER RISK
OF WIDESPREAD FROST.

ELSEWHERE/INLAND TEMPS WILL BE COLDER HOWEVER NO HEADLINES GIVEN
GROWING SEASON FOR MOST LOCATIONS DOESN/T START UNTIL SOMETIME IN
MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

REAL NICE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE REGION.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH STRONG APRIL
SUN ANGLE WARMING AIRMASS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S INLAND. COOLER
ALONG THE COAST WITH DEVELOPING SEABREEZES BUT OVERALL A NICE DAY
BY LATE APR STANDARDS AND CONSIDERING WHAT THE WEEKEND AND EXTENDED
FORECAST OFFERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

ROBUST TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES
MOVING EASTWARD AND ARRIVES HERE FRI NIGHT. MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM...WITH PARENT LOW ENTERING WESTERN NY
EARLY SAT...WHILE SECONDARY LOW SPINS UP NEAR LONG ISLAND NY. RAIN
OVERSPREADS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA 8 PM TO 2 AM...THEN
ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA 2 AM TO 8 AM. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST ATLANTIC INFLOW AND JET DYNAMICS TOWARD 12Z
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
* UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK

24/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE OF COURSE SOME DISCREPANCIES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE ECMWF IS FARTHEST FROM THE COAST...PASSING
OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND THE NAM IS CLOSEST PASSING OVER
NANTUCKET. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED NORTH SINCE THE 12Z RUN SO WENT
WITH A NAM/GFS BLEND FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH A DEVELOPING BLOCKING PATTERN.
MODELS ARE QUICK TO MOVE TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE BLOCKING PATTERN A BIT BETTER THOUGH THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEMBERS AS TO WHETHER WE WILL BE MORE
INFLUENCED BY RIDGING OR TROUGHING. BETWEEN THIS AND THE MODELS
TENDENCY TO RUSH A RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...HAVE A
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...DOUBLE BARREL LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE NORTHERN LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC
WHILE THE SOUTHERN LOW PASSES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW WHILE THE NAM IS
THE FARTHEST NORTH.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH THIS SYSTEM.  STEEP MID LEVEL RATES PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR AND AS SUCH HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  WHERE EXACTLY THE BLOCKED PATTERN
SETS UP WILL DETERMINE WHAT SORT OF WEATHER WE ARE LOOKING AT.  SOME
MODELS HAVE A PRONOUNCED EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...A SHIFT COULD RESULT IN MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE

4 PM UPDATE...

THROUGH 00Z...GUSTY NW WINDS 30-40 KT CONTINUE THEN BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. VFR AS WELL.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH A DIMINISHING WIND.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS...SEABREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR TO START THEN QUICKLY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING WESTERN CT/MA 00Z-06Z THEN INTO RI AND EASTERN
MA 06Z-12Z. LOW RISK OF IFR TOWARD 12Z SAT. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
MAY INCREASING UP TO 25 KT TOWARD 12Z SAT ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
NW GALES UNTIL 8 PM OR SO FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT.
STRONGEST WINDS NEAR SHORE.

FRI...HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE REGION YIELDING LIGHT WINDS WITH
SEABREEZES NEAR SHORE. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

FRI NIGHT...RAIN OVERSPREADS THE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARD SUNRISE SAT. LOW RISK OF THUNDER SOUTH
WATERS. AS LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT TOWARD SUNRISE SAT WITH STRONGEST
WINDS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.

OUTLOOK...SAT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. S WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY
ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AS THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  N/NW WINDS AND SEAS
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BUT CONDITIONS ARE
CLOSE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET AND THEN
DIMINISH WITH NIGHTFALL. UNTIL THEN EXPECT NW WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND RH VALUES 15-25 PERCENT. RECENT RAINFALL
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENG WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...LESS RAINFALL OCCURRED IN THE CT VALLEY
THUS RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR CT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>021-026.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241802
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
202 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 45 MPH. THE EXCEPTION WAS NASHUA WITH A GUST TO 51 MPH
/44KT/. THUS WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM. TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE MU50S EXCEPT LOW 50S HIGHER TERRAIN. FEW
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY TOUCH 60 BRIEFLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND RI INCLUDING BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
GUSTY WINDS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH HIGH PRES APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
WITH MINS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT
UPPER 30S BOS/PVD AND OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENG THEN TO THE EAST BY DAYS END. NEXT
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST. IT WILL REMAIN DRY AS DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCD WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH 00Z. IT WILL BE A
MILDER DAY IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SOUNDINGS
SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB WHERE TEMPS INCREASE TO 2-3C AROUND 18Z.
THIS SUPPORTS TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S...BUT 50S ALONG THE S
COAST DUE TO SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
* UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK

24/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE OF COURSE SOME DISCREPANCIES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE ECMWF IS FARTHEST FROM THE COAST...PASSING
OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND THE NAM IS CLOSEST PASSING OVER
NANTUCKET. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED NORTH SINCE THE 12Z RUN SO WENT
WITH A NAM/GFS BLEND FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH A DEVELOPING BLOCKING PATTERN.
MODELS ARE QUICK TO MOVE TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE BLOCKING PATTERN A BIT BETTER THOUGH THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEMBERS AS TO WHETHER WE WILL BE MORE
INFLUENCED BY RIDGING OR TROUGHING. BETWEEN THIS AND THE MODELS
TENDENCY TO RUSH A RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...HAVE A
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...DOUBLE BARREL LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE NORTHERN LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC
WHILE THE SOUTHERN LOW PASSES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW WHILE THE NAM IS
THE FARTHEST NORTH.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH THIS SYSTEM.  STEEP MID LEVEL RATES PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR AND AS SUCH HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  WHERE EXACTLY THE BLOCKED PATTERN
SETS UP WILL DETERMINE WHAT SORT OF WEATHER WE ARE LOOKING AT.  SOME
MODELS HAVE A PRONOUNCED EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...A SHIFT COULD RESULT IN MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE

THROUGH 00Z...GUSTY NW WINDS 30-40 KT CONTINUE THEN BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. VFR AS WELL.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH A DIMINISHING WIND.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS...SEABREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR TO START THEN QUICKLY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING WESTERN CT/MA 00Z-06Z THEN INTO RI AND EASTERN
MA 06Z-12Z. LOW RISK OF IFR TOWARD 12Z SAT. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
MAY INCREASING UP TO 25 KT TOWARD 12Z SAT ACROSS RI AND EASTERN
MA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
SHORE GIVEN WARMER LAND TEMPS /55-60/ THAN OCEAN TEMPS /LOW 40S/.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
---------------------------------------------------------------

NW GALES EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT. WINDS
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS GRADIENT RELAXES WITH LIGHT WINDS ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. S WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NW AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  N/NW WINDS AND SEAS
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BUT CONDITIONS ARE
CLOSE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM EARLIER DISCUSSION. PREVIOUS FORECAST
MATCHING UP NICELY WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
-----------------------------------------------------------

CONDITIONS TODAY ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WITH
MIN RH 15-25 PERCENT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENG WILL
PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...LESS
RAINFALL OCCURRED IN THE CT VALLEY AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
OKX/ALY WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR N CT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>021-026.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KALY 241712
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
112 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IT
WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT LEAVING US WITH A COLD NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL. FRIDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 EDT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE WINDY THOUGH DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE...AND THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH MANY ASOS AND OTHER
OBSERVATION SITES ALREADY SEEING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH.
SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEAT UP THE SURFACE TODAY. WITH STILL
PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...THIS HEATING WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT
MIXING WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...PRODUCING PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 MPH...BUT WILL GUST OVER 35 MPH EVERYWHERE...PERHAPS
UP TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN/35-40 MPH ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES
AND THE LACK OF A GOOD WETTING RAIN IN DAYS...HAS PROMPTED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR MORE ON
THESE...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST DISCUSSION FOUND
LATER IN THE AFD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX AS LOW PRESSURE
FINALLY MOVES FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT
CREST OVER THE REGION. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A RAPID DIMINISHING OF
THE WIND THIS EVENING. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL OFFER BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP TO AROUND 30 FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTHWARD...LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL DAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASES...IT NOW APPEARS FROM THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COLLECTION THAT ANY RAIN FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...SHOULD STAY
MAINLY WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
SNEAK INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF SOME SUNSHINE...A BREEZE TURNING SOUTHERLY AND
PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...GOOD MIXING AND
WARM ADVECTION...WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES A BUMP UPWARD. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS...CLOSER TO 60 EVEN
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND BRING SHOWERS.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE OLD PRIMARY LOW THAT WILL RIDE BY TO OUR
NORTH WILL WEAKEN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
THIS SECONDARY LOW MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED IN
STONE YET. FOR NOW WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

IT MIGHT JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE RAIN TO MIX
WITH OR MAYBE EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT LOOKS LIGHT TO NIL.

THE SECONDARY LOW WILL PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY. A DRY SLOT SHOULD
BRING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL WORK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE WILL
CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN
WHILE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COOLING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH GOOD
MIXING VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE BETTER...50S FURTHER NORTH
WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE MOST EVERYONE ELSE WILL
HAVE NOTHING THAN A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. IT LOOKS TO TURN
CHILLY ONCE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW TUMBLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 20S ADIRONDACKS
WHERE ONCE AGAIN A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP A DUSTING OF
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC AND DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE NET
RESULT IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST PER THE 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  WE
WILL HOLD ONTO SOME CHC POPS NORTH OF ALBANY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE LINGERS.  EVEN WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR BELOW 0Z WHICH
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE.

THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENS FURTHER
AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  IT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR A RATHER WET PERIOD OF
WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  WHILE THE THERMAL COLUMN DOES
MODERATE...WITH THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 17-20 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 25-30 KT THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER DARK...WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 600 PM ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. IN
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES ALL BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS. WE DID ADD SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO WARNING.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 30-45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15-25
PERCENT. ALSO THE COMPUTED HAINES INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE 5-6 IN
MOST AREAS...WHICH IS HIGH AND CAN HELP SUPPORT FIRE GROWTH.

PER EARLIER COORDINATION WITH OUR LIAISON STATE CONTACT
POINTS...MOST OF OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR TODAY. THE ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT SINCE
PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE TODAY WILL GENERALLY AROUND 50 OR
A LITTLE LESS. ALSO...THERE WAS A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL RECENTLY AS
WELL AS SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF MELTING SNOW. FOR THIS AREA...WE
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING ANY THE THREAT OF ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

FRIDAY...WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
ACTUALLY BE MILDER. RH VALUES LOOK TO DIP TO OR A LITTLE BELOW 30
PERCENT ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING
AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER ACTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. IT IS ABOUT A 50/50 CHANCE THAT ANY ONE AREA WILL REACH A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ038>041-
     043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/LFM








000
FXUS61 KALY 241644
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IT
WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT LEAVING US WITH A COLD NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL. FRIDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 EDT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE WINDY THOUGH DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE...AND THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH MANY ASOS AND OTHER
OBSERVATION SITES ALREADY SEEING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH.
SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEAT UP THE SURFACE TODAY. WITH STILL
PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...THIS HEATING WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT
MIXING WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...PRODUCING PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 MPH...BUT WILL GUST OVER 35 MPH EVERYWHERE...PERHAPS
UP TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN/35-40 MPH ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES
AND THE LACK OF A GOOD WETTING RAIN IN DAYS...HAS PROMPTED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR MORE ON
THESE...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST DISCUSSION FOUND
LATER IN THE AFD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX AS LOW PRESSURE
FINALLY MOVES FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT
CREST OVER THE REGION. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A RAPID DIMINISHING OF
THE WIND THIS EVENING. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL OFFER BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP TO AROUND 30 FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTHWARD...LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL DAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASES...IT NOW APPEARS FROM THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COLLECTION THAT ANY RAIN FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...SHOULD STAY
MAINLY WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
SNEAK INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF SOME SUNSHINE...A BREEZE TURNING SOUTHERLY AND
PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...GOOD MIXING AND
WARM ADVECTION...WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES A BUMP UPWARD. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS...CLOSER TO 60 EVEN
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND BRING SHOWERS.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE OLD PRIMARY LOW THAT WILL RIDE BY TO OUR
NORTH WILL WEAKEN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
THIS SECONDARY LOW MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED IN
STONE YET. FOR NOW WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

IT MIGHT JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE RAIN TO MIX
WITH OR MAYBE EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT LOOKS LIGHT TO NIL.

THE SECONDARY LOW WILL PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY. A DRY SLOT SHOULD
BRING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL WORK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE WILL
CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN
WHILE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COOLING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH GOOD
MIXING VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE BETTER...50S FURTHER NORTH
WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE MOST EVERYONE ELSE WILL
HAVE NOTHING THAN A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. IT LOOKS TO TURN
CHILLY ONCE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW TUMBLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 20S ADIRONDACKS
WHERE ONCE AGAIN A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP A DUSTING OF
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC AND DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE NET
RESULT IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST PER THE 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  WE
WILL HOLD ONTO SOME CHC POPS NORTH OF ALBANY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE LINGERS.  EVEN WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR BELOW 0Z WHICH
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE.

THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENS FURTHER
AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  IT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR A RATHER WET PERIOD OF
WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  WHILE THE THERMAL COLUMN DOES
MODERATE...WITH THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...CANOPY OF
HIGHER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EITHER WAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS
MORNING TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON.  THOSE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 600 PM ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. IN
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES ALL BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS. WE DID ADD SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO WARNING.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 30-45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15-25
PERCENT. ALSO THE COMPUTED HAINES INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE 5-6 IN
MOST AREAS...WHICH IS HIGH AND CAN HELP SUPPORT FIRE GROWTH.

PER EARLIER COORDINATION WITH OUR LIAISON STATE CONTACT
POINTS...MOST OF OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR TODAY. THE ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT SINCE
PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE TODAY WILL GENERALLY AROUND 50 OR
A LITTLE LESS. ALSO...THERE WAS A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL RECENTLY AS
WELL AS SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF MELTING SNOW. FOR THIS AREA...WE
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING ANY THE THREAT OF ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

FRIDAY...WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
ACTUALLY BE MILDER. RH VALUES LOOK TO DIP TO OR A LITTLE BELOW 30
PERCENT ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING
AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER ACTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. IT IS ABOUT A 50/50 CHANCE THAT ANY ONE AREA WILL REACH A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ038>041-
     043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/LFM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 241614
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1214 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

NOON UPDATE...

DESPITE WIND SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA /40 KT/
GETTING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DOWN TREE LIMBS. THUS HAVE HOISTED A
WIND ADVISORY THRU 7 PM. STRONGEST LOW-MID LEVEL JET AND
ACCOMPANYING PGRAD IS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE WESTERN MA AND CT IN THE ADVISORY. ALSO
EXCLUDED CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AS MIXED LAYER NOT AS DEEP HERE
GIVEN TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TO THE ISLANDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

EARLIER FORECAST ON TRACK WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. THUS NO MAJOR
CHANGES EXPECTED. ABUNDANT APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BE OFFSET BY COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NW WINDS. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM ALBANY
NY HAS -4C TEMPS AT 850 MB. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S BUT
GIVEN BLYR WILL EXTEND BEYOND 850 MB ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MU50S AND NEAR
60 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE.

NO WIND HEADLINES AS PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED AS WIND GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 46 MPH. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
GUSTY WINDS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH HIGH PRES APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
WITH MINS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT
UPPER 30S BOS/PVD AND OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENG THEN TO THE EAST BY DAYS END. NEXT
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST. IT WILL REMAIN DRY AS DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCD WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH 00Z. IT WILL BE A
MILDER DAY IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SOUNDINGS
SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB WHERE TEMPS INCREASE TO 2-3C AROUND 18Z.
THIS SUPPORTS TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S...BUT 50S ALONG THE S
COAST DUE TO SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
* UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK

24/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE OF COURSE SOME DISCREPANCIES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE ECMWF IS FARTHEST FROM THE COAST...PASSING
OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND THE NAM IS CLOSEST PASSING OVER
NANTUCKET. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED NORTH SINCE THE 12Z RUN SO WENT
WITH A NAM/GFS BLEND FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH A DEVELOPING BLOCKING PATTERN.
MODELS ARE QUICK TO MOVE TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE BLOCKING PATTERN A BIT BETTER THOUGH THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEMBERS AS TO WHETHER WE WILL BE MORE
INFLUENCED BY RIDGING OR TROUGHING. BETWEEN THIS AND THE MODELS
TENDENCY TO RUSH A RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...HAVE A
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...DOUBLE BARREL LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE NORTHERN LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC
WHILE THE SOUTHERN LOW PASSES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW WHILE THE NAM IS
THE FARTHEST NORTH.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH THIS SYSTEM.  STEEP MID LEVEL RATES PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR AND AS SUCH HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  WHERE EXACTLY THE BLOCKED PATTERN
SETS UP WILL DETERMINE WHAT SORT OF WEATHER WE ARE LOOKING AT.  SOME
MODELS HAVE A PRONOUNCED EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...A SHIFT COULD RESULT IN MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE

10 AM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES FROM 12Z TAFS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN DRY
RUNWAYS/VFR AND GUSTY NW WINDS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
--------------------------------------------------------

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY
AS GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
SHORE GIVEN WARMER LAND TEMPS /55-60/ THAN OCEAN TEMPS /LOW 40S/.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
---------------------------------------------------------------

NW GALES EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT. WINDS
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS GRADIENT RELAXES WITH LIGHT WINDS ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. S WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NW AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  N/NW WINDS AND SEAS
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BUT CONDITIONS ARE
CLOSE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM EARLIER DISCUSSION. PREVIOUS FORECAST
MATCHING UP NICELY WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
-----------------------------------------------------------

CONDITIONS TODAY ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WITH
MIN RH 15-25 PERCENT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENG WILL
PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...LESS
RAINFALL OCCURRED IN THE CT VALLEY AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
OKX/ALY WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR N CT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>021-026.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KALY 241445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IT
WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT LEAVING US WITH A COLD NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL. FRIDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. IT WILL BE WINDY THOUGH DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE GULF OF
MAINE...AND THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEAT UP THE SURFACE TODAY. WITH STILL
PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...THIS HEATING WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT
MIXING WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...PRODUCING PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 MPH...BUT WILL GUST OVER 35 MPH EVERYWHERE...PERHAPS
UP TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN/35-40 MPH ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES
AND THE LACK OF A GOOD WETTING RAIN IN DAYS...HAS PROMPTED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR MORE ON
THESE...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST DISCUSSION FOUND
LATER IN THE AFD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX AS LOW PRESSURE
FINALLY MOVES FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT
CREST OVER THE REGION. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A RAPID DIMINISHING OF
THE WIND THIS EVENING. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL OFFER BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP TO AROUND 30 FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTHWARD...LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL DAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASES...IT NOW APPEARS FROM THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COLLECTION THAT ANY RAIN FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...SHOULD STAY
MAINLY WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
SNEAK INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF SOME SUNSHINE...A BREEZE TURNING SOUTHERLY AND
PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...GOOD MIXING AND
WARM ADVECTION...WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES A BUMP UPWARD. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS...CLOSER TO 60 EVEN
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND BRING SHOWERS.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE OLD PRIMARY LOW THAT WILL RIDE BY TO OUR
NORTH WILL WEAKEN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
THIS SECONDARY LOW MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED IN
STONE YET. FOR NOW WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

IT MIGHT JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE RAIN TO MIX
WITH OR MAYBE EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT LOOKS LIGHT TO NIL.

THE SECONDARY LOW WILL PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY. A DRY SLOT SHOULD
BRING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL WORK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE WILL
CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN
WHILE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COOLING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH GOOD
MIXING VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE BETTER...50S FURTHER NORTH
WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE MOST EVERYONE ELSE WILL
HAVE NOTHING THAN A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. IT LOOKS TO TURN
CHILLY ONCE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW TUMBLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 20S ADIRONDACKS
WHERE ONCE AGAIN A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP A DUSTING OF
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC AND DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE NET
RESULT IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST PER THE 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  WE
WILL HOLD ONTO SOME CHC POPS NORTH OF ALBANY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE LINGERS.  EVEN WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR BELOW 0Z WHICH
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE.

THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENS FURTHER
AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  IT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR A RATHER WET PERIOD OF
WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  WHILE THE THERMAL COLUMN DOES
MODERATE...WITH THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...CANOPY OF
HIGHER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EITHER WAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS
MORNING TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON.  THOSE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 600 PM ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. IN
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES ALL BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS. WE DID ADD SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO WARNING.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 30-45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15-25
PERCENT. ALSO THE COMPUTED HAINES INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE 5-6 IN
MOST AREAS...WHICH IS HIGH AND CAN HELP SUPPORT FIRE GROWTH.

PER EARLIER COORDINATION WITH OUR LIAISON STATE CONTACT
POINTS...MOST OF OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR TODAY. THE ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT SINCE
PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE TODAY WILL GENERALLY AROUND 50 OR
A LITTLE LESS. ALSO...THERE WAS A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL RECENTLY AS
WELL AS SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF MELTING SNOW. FOR THIS AREA...WE
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING ANY THE THREAT OF ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

FRIDAY...WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
ACTUALLY BE MILDER. RH VALUES LOOK TO DIP TO OR A LITTLE BELOW 30
PERCENT ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING
AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER ACTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. IT IS ABOUT A 50/50 CHANCE THAT ANY ONE AREA WILL REACH A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ038>041-
     043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/LFM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 241348
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
948 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

EARLIER FORECAST ON TRACK WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. THUS NO MAJOR
CHANGES EXPECTED. ABUNDANT APRIL SUNSHINE WILL BE OFFSET BY COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NW WINDS. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM ALBANY
NY HAS -4C TEMPS AT 850 MB. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S BUT
GIVEN BLYR WILL EXTEND BEYOND 850 MB ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MU50S AND NEAR
60 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE.

NO WIND HEADLINES AS PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED AS WIND GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 46 MPH. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW HANGS ON ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENG FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS E COASTAL MA AND
CAPE/ISLANDS. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE STRONG NW WINDS. DEEP
MIXING THROUGH 850 MB EXPECTED AND USING AVERAGE OF THE MEAN WIND
IN THE MIXING LAYER AND THE WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER
YIELDS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 35-40 KT /40-45 MPH/. THIS FALLS
JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES.

850 MB TEMPS -2 TO -3C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY
WITH MILDEST READINGS APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN CT/RI AND E MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
GUSTY WINDS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH HIGH PRES APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
WITH MINS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT
UPPER 30S BOS/PVD AND OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENG THEN TO THE EAST BY DAYS END. NEXT
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST. IT WILL REMAIN DRY AS DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCD WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH 00Z. IT WILL BE A
MILDER DAY IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SOUNDINGS
SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB WHERE TEMPS INCREASE TO 2-3C AROUND 18Z.
THIS SUPPORTS TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S...BUT 50S ALONG THE S
COAST DUE TO SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
* UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK

24/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE OF COURSE SOME DISCREPANCIES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE ECMWF IS FARTHEST FROM THE COAST...PASSING
OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND THE NAM IS CLOSEST PASSING OVER
NANTUCKET. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED NORTH SINCE THE 12Z RUN SO WENT
WITH A NAM/GFS BLEND FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH A DEVELOPING BLOCKING PATTERN.
MODELS ARE QUICK TO MOVE TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE BLOCKING PATTERN A BIT BETTER THOUGH THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEMBERS AS TO WHETHER WE WILL BE MORE
INFLUENCED BY RIDGING OR TROUGHING. BETWEEN THIS AND THE MODELS
TENDENCY TO RUSH A RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...HAVE A
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...DOUBLE BARREL LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE NORTHERN LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC
WHILE THE SOUTHERN LOW PASSES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW WHILE THE NAM IS
THE FARTHEST NORTH.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH THIS SYSTEM.  STEEP MID LEVEL RATES PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR AND AS SUCH HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  WHERE EXACTLY THE BLOCKED PATTERN
SETS UP WILL DETERMINE WHAT SORT OF WEATHER WE ARE LOOKING AT.  SOME
MODELS HAVE A PRONOUNCED EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...A SHIFT COULD RESULT IN MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE

10 AM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES FROM 12Z TAFS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN DRY
RUNWAYS/VFR AND GUSTY NW WINDS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
--------------------------------------------------------

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY
AS GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
SHORE GIVEN WARMER LAND TEMPS /55-60/ THAN OCEAN TEMPS /LOW 40S/.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
---------------------------------------------------------------

NW GALES EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT. WINDS
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS GRADIENT RELAXES WITH LIGHT WINDS ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. S WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NW AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  N/NW WINDS AND SEAS
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BUT CONDITIONS ARE
CLOSE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM EARLIER DISCUSSION. PREVIOUS FORECAST
MATCHING UP NICELY WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
-----------------------------------------------------------

CONDITIONS TODAY ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WITH
MIN RH 15-25 PERCENT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENG WILL
PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...LESS
RAINFALL OCCURRED IN THE CT VALLEY AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
OKX/ALY WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR N CT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KALY 241141
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
741 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT LEAVING US WITH A COLD NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL.
FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

AS OF 620 AM EDT...A CLEAR BUT BRISK DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE WIND
AT GLENS FALLS WAS ALREADY GUSTING TO 30 MPH!  OTHER AREAS GENERALLY
SEEING WIND GUSTING IN THE 20S. SO IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY.

THE WIND HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH...AS THEY
GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION (EXCEPT MID TO
UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS).

THE WIND WAS THE RESULT OF A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE WITH US MOST IF NOT ALL OF TODAY.

SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEAT UP THE SURFACE TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH
STILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...THIS HEATING WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT
MIXING WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...PRODUCING PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON GUSTS. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 20 MPH...BUT WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH EVERYWHERE...PERHAPS UP TO 45
MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN/35-40 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES
AND THE LACK OF A GOOD WETTING RAIN IN DAYS...HAS PROMPTED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR MORE ON
THESE...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST DISCUSSION FOUND
LATER IN THE AFD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX AS LOW PRESSURE
FINALLY MOVES FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT
CREST OVER THE REGION. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A RAPID DIMINISHING OF
THE WIND THIS EVENING. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL OFFER BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP TO AROUND 30 FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTHWARD...LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL DAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASES...IT NOW APPEARS FROM THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COLLECTION THAT ANY RAIN FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...SHOULD STAY
MAINLY WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
SNEAK INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF SOME SUNSHINE...A BREEZE TURNING SOUTHERLY AND
PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...GOOD MIXING AND
WARM ADVECTION...WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES A BUMP UPWARD. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS...CLOSER TO 60 EVEN
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND BRING SHOWERS.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE OLD PRIMARY LOW THAT WILL RIDE BY TO OUR
NORTH WILL WEAKEN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
THIS SECONDARY LOW MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED IN
STONE YET. FOR NOW WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

IT MIGHT JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE RAIN TO MIX
WITH OR MAYBE EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT LOOKS LIGHT TO NIL.

THE SECONDARY LOW WILL PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY. A DRY SLOT SHOULD
BRING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL WORK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE WILL
CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN
WHILE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COOLING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH GOOD
MIXING VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE BETTER...50S FURTHER NORTH
WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE MOST EVERYONE ELSE WILL
HAVE NOTHING THAN A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. IT LOOKS TO TURN
CHILLY ONCE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW TUMBLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 20S ADIRONDACKS
WHERE ONCE AGAIN A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP A DUSTING OF
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC AND DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE NET
RESULT IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST PER THE 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  WE
WILL HOLD ONTO SOME CHC POPS NORTH OF ALBANY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE LINGERS.  EVEN WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR BELOW 0Z WHICH
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE.

THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENS FURTHER
AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  IT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR A RATHER WET PERIOD OF
WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  WHILE THE THERMAL COLUMN DOES
MODERATE...WITH THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...CANOPY OF
HIGHER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EITHER WAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS
MORNING TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON.  THOSE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 600 PM ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. IN
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES ALL BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS. WE DID ADD SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO WARNING.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 30-45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15-25
PERCENT. ALSO THE COMPUTED HAINES INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE 5-6 IN
MOST AREAS...WHICH IS HIGH AND CAN HELP SUPPORT FIRE GROWTH.

PER EARLIER COORDINATION WITH OUR LIAISON STATE CONTACT
POINTS...MOST OF OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR TODAY. THE ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT SINCE
PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE TODAY WILL GENERALLY AROUND 50 OR
A LITTLE LESS. ALSO...THERE WAS A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL RECENTLY AS
WELL AS SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF MELTING SNOW. FOR THIS AREA...WE
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING ANY THE THREAT OF ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

FRIDAY...WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
ACTUALLY BE MILDER. RH VALUES LOOK TO DIP TO OR A LITTLE BELOW 30
PERCENT ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING
AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER ACTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. IT IS ABOUT A 50/50 CHANCE THAT ANY ONE AREA WILL REACH A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/LFM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 241048
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
648 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN A BIT QUICKER THAN FORECAST
SO HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINTS TO LOWER THEM A FEW
DEGREES. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. SUNNY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING.

MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW HANGS ON ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENG FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS E COASTAL MA AND
CAPE/ISLANDS. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE STRONG NW WINDS. DEEP
MIXING THROUGH 850 MB EXPECTED AND USING AVERAGE OF THE MEAN WIND
IN THE MIXING LAYER AND THE WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER
YIELDS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 35-40 KT /40-45 MPH/. THIS FALLS
JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES.

850 MB TEMPS -2 TO -3C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY
WITH MILDEST READINGS APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN CT/RI AND E MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
GUSTY WINDS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH HIGH PRES APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
WITH MINS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT
UPPER 30S BOS/PVD AND OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENG THEN TO THE EAST BY DAYS END. NEXT
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST. IT WILL REMAIN DRY AS DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCD WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH 00Z. IT WILL BE A
MILDER DAY IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SOUNDINGS
SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB WHERE TEMPS INCREASE TO 2-3C AROUND 18Z.
THIS SUPPORTS TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S...BUT 50S ALONG THE S
COAST DUE TO SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
* UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK

24/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE OF COURSE SOME DISCREPANCIES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE ECMWF IS FARTHEST FROM THE COAST...PASSING
OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND THE NAM IS CLOSEST PASSING OVER
NANTUCKET. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED NORTH SINCE THE 12Z RUN SO WENT
WITH A NAM/GFS BLEND FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH A DEVELOPING BLOCKING PATTERN.
MODELS ARE QUICK TO MOVE TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE BLOCKING PATTERN A BIT BETTER THOUGH THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEMBERS AS TO WHETHER WE WILL BE MORE
INFLUENCED BY RIDGING OR TROUGHING. BETWEEN THIS AND THE MODELS
TENDENCY TO RUSH A RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...HAVE A
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...DOUBLE BARREL LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE NORTHERN LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC
WHILE THE SOUTHERN LOW PASSES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW WHILE THE NAM IS
THE FARTHEST NORTH.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH THIS SYSTEM.  STEEP MID LEVEL RATES PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR AND AS SUCH HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  WHERE EXACTLY THE BLOCKED PATTERN
SETS UP WILL DETERMINE WHAT SORT OF WEATHER WE ARE LOOKING AT.  SOME
MODELS HAVE A PRONOUNCED EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...A SHIFT COULD RESULT IN MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY
AS GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW GALES EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT. WINDS
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS GRADIENT RELAXES WITH LIGHT WINDS ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. S WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NW AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  N/NW WINDS AND SEAS
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BUT CONDITIONS ARE
CLOSE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
WITH MIN RH 15-25 PERCENT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENG WILL
PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...LESS
RAINFALL OCCURRED IN THE CT VALLEY AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
OKX/ALY WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR N CT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...RLG
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KALY 241028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT LEAVING US WITH A COLD NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL.
FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

AS OF 620 AM EDT...A CLEAR BUT BRISK DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE WIND
AT GLENS FALLS WAS ALREADY GUSTING TO 30 MPH!  OTHER AREAS GENERALLY
SEEING WIND GUSTING IN THE 20S. SO IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY.

THE WIND HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH...AS THEY
GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION (EXCEPT MID TO
UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS).

THE WIND WAS THE RESULT OF A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE WITH US MOST IF NOT ALL OF TODAY.

SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEAT UP THE SURFACE TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH
STILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...THIS HEATING WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT
MIXING WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...PRODUCING PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON GUSTS. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 20 MPH...BUT WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH EVERYWHERE...PERHAPS UP TO 45
MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN/35-40 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES
AND THE LACK OF A GOOD WETTING RAIN IN DAYS...HAS PROMPTED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR MORE ON
THESE...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST DISCUSSION FOUND
LATER IN THE AFD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX AS LOW PRESSURE
FINALLY MOVES FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT
CREST OVER THE REGION. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A RAPID DIMINISHING OF
THE WIND THIS EVENING. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL OFFER BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP TO AROUND 30 FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTHWARD...LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL DAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASES...IT NOW APPEARS FROM THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COLLECTION THAT ANY RAIN FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...SHOULD STAY
MAINLY WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
SNEAK INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF SOME SUNSHINE...A BREEZE TURNING SOUTHERLY AND
PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...GOOD MIXING AND
WARM ADVECTION...WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES A BUMP UPWARD. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS...CLOSER TO 60 EVEN
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND BRING SHOWERS.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE OLD PRIMARY LOW THAT WILL RIDE BY TO OUR
NORTH WILL WEAKEN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
THIS SECONDARY LOW MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED IN
STONE YET. FOR NOW WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

IT MIGHT JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE RAIN TO MIX
WITH OR MAYBE EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT LOOKS LIGHT TO NIL.

THE SECONDARY LOW WILL PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY. A DRY SLOT SHOULD
BRING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL WORK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE WILL
CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN
WHILE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COOLING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH GOOD
MIXING VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE BETTER...50S FURTHER NORTH
WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE MOST EVERYONE ELSE WILL
HAVE NOTHING THAN A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. IT LOOKS TO TURN
CHILLY ONCE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW TUMBLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 20S ADIRONDACKS
WHERE ONCE AGAIN A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP A DUSTING OF
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC AND DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE NET
RESULT IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST PER THE 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  WE
WILL HOLD ONTO SOME CHC POPS NORTH OF ALBANY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE LINGERS.  EVEN WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR BELOW 0Z WHICH
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE.

THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENS FURTHER
AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  IT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR A RATHER WET PERIOD OF
WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  WHILE THE THERMAL COLUMN DOES
MODERATE...WITH THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING LEAVING BEHIND A CLEAR SKY.  THESE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE ENDING
06Z/FRI.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN 5 KT
AND 15 KT..WITH SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH DAYLIGHT THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 600 PM ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. IN
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES ALL BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS. WE DID ADD SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO WARNING.

     WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 30-45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15-25
PERCENT. ALSO THE COMPUTED HAINES INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE 5-6 IN
MOST AREAS...WHICH IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH AND CAN HELP SUPPORT FIRE
GROWTH.

PER EARLIER COORDINATION WITH OUR LIAISON STATE CONTACT
POINTS...MOST OF OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR TODAY. THE ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT SINCE
PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE TODAY WILL GENERALLY AROUND 50 OR
A LITTLE LESS. ALSO...THERE WAS A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL RECENTLY AS
WELL AS SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF MELTING SNOW. FOR THIS AREA...WE
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING ANY THE THREAT OF ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

FRIDAY...WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
ACTUALLY BE MILDER. RH VALUES LOOK TO DIP TO OR A LITTLE BELOW 30
PERCENT ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING
AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER ACTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. IT IS ABOUT A 50/50 CHANCE THAT ANY ONE AREA WILL REACH A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/LFM










000
FXUS61 KALY 240809
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT LEAVING US WITH A COLD NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL.
FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...IFR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE FEW IF ANY CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE THEME OF THE DAY...LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO BETWEEN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
30S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...30-35 TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER THE GULF OF MAINE...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE RESIDED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OUR AREA WAS
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 MPH...ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.
THE WIND WILL PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BY DAYBREAK. THEY WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEAT UP THE SURFACE TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH
STILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...THIS HEATING WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT
MIXING WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...PRODUCING PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON GUSTS. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 20 MPH...BUT WILL GUST TO 30 MPH EVERYWHERE...PERHAPS UP TO 45
MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN/35-40 ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES
AND THE LACK OF A GOOD WETTING RAIN IN DAYS...HAS PROMPTED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR MORE ON
THESE...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST DISCUSSION FOUND
LATER IN THE AFD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX AS LOW PRESSURE
FINALLY MOVES FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT
CREST OVER THE REGION. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A RAPID DIMINISHING OF
THE WIND THIS EVENING. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL OFFER BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP TO AROUND 30 FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTHWARD...LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL DAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASES...IT NOW APPEARS FROM THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COLLECTION THAT ANY RAIN FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...SHOULD STAY MAINLY
WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT SNEAK
INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF SOME SUNSHINE...A BREEZE TURNING SOUTHERLY AND
PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...GOOD MIXING AND
WARM ADVECTION...WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES A BUMP UPWARD. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS...CLOSER TO 60 EVEN
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND BRING SHOWERS.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE OLD PRIMARY LOW THAT WILL RIDE BY TO OUR
NORTH WILL WEAKEN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
THIS SECONDARY LOW MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED IN
STONE YET. FOR NOW WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

IT MIGHT JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE RAIN TO MIX
WITH OR MAYBE EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT LOOKS LIGHT TO NIL.

THE SECONDARY LOW WILL PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY. A DRY SLOT SHOULD
BRING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL WORK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE WILL
CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN
WHILE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COOLING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH GOOD
MIXING VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE BETTER...50S FURTHER NORTH
WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE MOST EVERYONE ELSE WILL
HAVE NOTHING THAN A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. IT LOOKS TO TURN
CHILLY ONCE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW TUMBLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 20S ADIRONDACKS
WHERE ONCE AGAIN A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP A DUSTING OF
SNOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC AND DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE NET
RESULT IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST PER THE 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  WE
WILL HOLD ONTO SOME CHC POPS NORTH OF ALBANY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE LINGERS.  EVEN WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR BELOW 0Z WHICH
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE.

THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENS FURTHER
AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  IT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR A RATHER WET PERIOD OF
WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  WHILE THE THERMAL COLUMN DOES
MODERATE...WITH THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING LEAVING BEHIND A CLEAR SKY.  THESE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE ENDING
06Z/FRI.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN 5 KT
AND 15 KT..WITH SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH DAYLIGHT THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 600 PM ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. IN
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES ALL BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS. WE DID ADD SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO WARNING.

...WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 30-45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15-25
PERCENT. ALSO THE COMPUTED HAINES INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE 5-6 IN
MOST AREAS...WHICH IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH AND CAN HELP SUPPORT FIRE
GROWTH.

PER EARLIER COORDINATION WITH OUR LIAISON STATE CONTACT
POINTS...MOST OF OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR TODAY. THE ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT SINCE
PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE TODAY WILL GENERALLY AROUND 50 OR
A LITTLE LESS. ALSO...THERE WAS A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL RECENTLY AS
WELL AS SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF MELTING SNOW. FOR THIS AREA...WE
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING ANY THE THREAT OF ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

FRIDAY...WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
ACTUALLY BE MILDER. RH VALUES LOOK TO DIP TO OR A LITTLE BELOW 30
PERCENT ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING
AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER ACTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. IT IS ABOUT A 50/50 CHANCE THAT ANY ONE AREA WILL REACH A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/LFM










000
FXUS61 KBOX 240744
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
344 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRES RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW HANGS ON ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENG FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS E COASTAL MA AND
CAPE/ISLANDS. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE STRONG NW WINDS. DEEP
MIXING THROUGH 850 MB EXPECTED AND USING AVERAGE OF THE MEAN WIND
IN THE MIXING LAYER AND THE WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER
YIELDS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 35-40 KT /40-45 MPH/. THIS FALLS
JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES.

850 MB TEMPS -2 TO -3C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S TODAY
WITH MILDEST READINGS APPROACHING 60 DEGREES IN CT/RI AND E MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
GUSTY WINDS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING...THEN WINDS DIMINISH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH HIGH PRES APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT
WITH MINS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT
UPPER 30S BOS/PVD AND OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS NEW ENG THEN TO THE EAST BY DAYS END. NEXT
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST. IT WILL REMAIN DRY AS DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCD WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH 00Z. IT WILL BE A
MILDER DAY IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SOUNDINGS
SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB WHERE TEMPS INCREASE TO 2-3C AROUND 18Z.
THIS SUPPORTS TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S...BUT 50S ALONG THE S
COAST DUE TO SOUTHERLY WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
* UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK

24/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE OF COURSE SOME DISCREPANCIES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  A DOUBLE BARRELLED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
CLOSE THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THE
ECMWF IS FARTHEST FROM THE COAST...PASSING OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
AND THE NAM IS CLOSEST PASSING OVER NANTUCKET.  THE ECMWF HAS
TRENDED NORTH SINCE THE 12Z RUN SO WENT WITH A NAM/GFS BLEND FOR
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  BEYOND THIS...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH A DEVELOPING BLOCKING PATTERN. MODELS ARE QUICK TO MOVE TOWARDS
A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. ENSEMBLES SHOW THE BLOCKING PATTERN A
BIT BETTER THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEMBERS AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL BE MORE INFLUENCED BY RIDGING OR TROUGHING.  BETWEEN
THIS AND THE MODELS TENDENCY TO RUSH A RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN...HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...DOUBLE BARREL LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE NORTHERN LOW MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC
WHILE THE SOUTHERN LOW PASSES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW WHILE THE NAM IS
THE FARTHEST NORTH.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH THIS SYSTEM.  STEEP MID LEVEL RATES PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR AND AS SUCH HAVE MENTIONED
THUNDER IN THE GRIDS.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  WHERE EXACTLY THE BLOCKED PATTERN
SETS UP WILL DETERMINE WHAT SORT OF WEATHER WE ARE LOOKING AT.  SOME
MODELS HAVE A PRONOUNCED EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...A SHIFT COULD RESULT IN MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY
AS GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW GALES EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT. WINDS
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS GRADIENT RELAXES WITH LIGHT WINDS ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. S WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NW AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  N/NW WINDS AND SEAS
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BUT CONDITIONS ARE
CLOSE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
WITH MIN RH 15-25 PERCENT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENG WILL
PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...LESS
RAINFALL OCCURRED IN THE CT VALLEY AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
OKX/ALY WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR N CT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...RLG
FIRE WEATHER...KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240540
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES AND DRAWS ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS OUT OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDY AND DRYING
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES. WINDS THEN DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
140 AM UPDATE...
DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE
20S AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
ACROSS E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFFSHORE WITH BACK EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD EAST OF
THE CAPE. STILL LOTS OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION BUT PARTIAL
CLEARING DEVELOPING TO THE WEST IN NEW YORK STATE. THIS CLEARING
WILL MOVE INTO SNE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY
E COASTAL MA.

COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...WITH VALUES OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED ALOFT OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
FORECAST NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

THE WIND WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED. SO NO RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S WILL ALLOW ROOM FOR TEMPS TO FALL.
BUT WITH WINDS STAYING UP...TEMPS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE HIGHER.
EXPECTED MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS IN EASTERN MASS SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE OFF. FULL APRIL SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO AT LEAST 850
MB...THIS IS INDICATED IN THE MODEL FORECASTS. GIVEN THE MODEL
CAPABILITY OF UNDERESTIMATING THE MIXING DEPTH...MIXING COULD REACH
TO 825 MB OR 800 MB. EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING TO MAINTAIN
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH 40 KNOTS. WE WILL
FEATURE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH AND MONITOR FOR STRONGER WINDS.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -3C...SUPPORTING MID 50S.  TEMPS AT
800 MB WILL BE AROUND -3C TO -4C...EQUIV TO 1-2C AT 850...AND WOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 60S. FORECAST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT
AROUND 60 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS. IF MIXING GOES DEEPER THAN 850 MB
THEN TEMPS COULD BUMP UP 3-4 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
DIMINISH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH INLAND.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNSEASONABLE TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...HOWEVER AT THE
SURFACE THERE ARE MANY VARIABLES WHICH HAS CAUSED DIFFERENCE
AMONGST THE MODELS. OVERALL CONTINUED FOCUSING THE FORECAST BASE
ON THE ENSEMBLES AS THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS VERY SPREAD
OUT...THUS LEADING TOWARDS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ESP FOR NEXT
WEEK.

QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AS LOW WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER A CLOSED TROUGH/LOW OVER THE
ROCKIES ON MONDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE FORCED EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN US BY WED IN A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK SETUP AS WARMING
RIDGES BUILD STRONGLY OVER THE WRN US.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES TO START THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COASTLINES WILL BE COOLER AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A WET WEATHER. THE EC WANT TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE FRONT RESULTING IN MORE QPF VERSUS THE GFS WHICH JUST
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. REGARDLESS IT APPEARS TO RAIN
SOMETIME ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING LASTING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LOCATION AND OVERALL
TIMING. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY SO HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER FOR NOW.
HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS MODELS WILL BECOME MORE IN-LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER.

OTHERWISE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECT
TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST RESULTING
IN HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY SUNDAY. SUNDAY
TEMPS MAY BE COOLER THEN FORECASTED AS NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW COULD YIELD TO ANOTHER COLD CORE LOW SITUATION. THE EC IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE SHOWING THIS WHERE AS THE GFS IS WARMER.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH THE DEPARTING LOW
MOVING OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

MID NEXT WEEK...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUES/WED.
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW PRESSURE SETS UP.
IF IT IS SOUTH OF THE REGION THEN WE COULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS
DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AS WELL AS UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY
AS GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT -SHRA. LOW PROB OF SOME ISO THUNDER
ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOME SHOWERY WEATHER
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. COOLER AIR DRAWN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THIS WILL PROMOTE BRINGING STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN FROM
ALOFT.  WINDS AT THOSE HIGHER LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
DURING TONIGHT AND 35-40 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
DRIVE THE SEA HEIGHT TO 5-8 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEW ENGLAND WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
HEADLINES STEPPING DOWN THROUGH SMALL CRAFTS BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.  THE OUTER WATERS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
INCREASE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOW OUT OF THE NW ON MONDAY AND BE BREEZY AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...MIN RH 20-30 PCT WITH DRIEST VALUES IN THE CT VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH MOST AREAS. BUT AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE CONTACTS IT IS CLEAR THAT NON-WEATHER
FACTORS ARE NOT FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. SO WE HAVE OPTED FOR NO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS MULTI-
FACETED SITUATION AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KALY 240509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATED ALL SHOWERS ARE OVER AND IN
FACT...THE SKY WAS CLEARING ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE BREEZE REMAINS UP
AND WILL DO DURING THE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES
(BEING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGH) WENT AHEAD AND RAISED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. THAT WILL MEAN LOWS
WILL END UP BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER NORTH.
THE BREEZE WILL MAKE THESE TEMPERATURES FEEL AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THESE VALUES AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SCALE SURFACE DIVERGENCE GIVING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
OFF THE COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AN
ESTABLISHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PARAMETERS ALSO SET UP FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
FURTHER DETAILS AND FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO
MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH A FEW LOWER 60S.
AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. WITH T850 BETWEEN
4C AND 6C AND T925 BETWEEN 8C AND 10C...WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
LATEST 12Z MODELS AND NUMERICAL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT QUICKLY...AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING PATTERN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CAROLINAS DIGGING ACROSS OUR AREA
BEGINNING WITH THE NEW WEEK.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL HEAD EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY.  THIS LOW WILL
SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY ON ITS JOURNEY...MAKING LITTLE FURTHER PROGRESS
ON WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL SPILL OUT AHEAD OF IT...
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WITH THE STUBBORN
RIDGE DOWN ACROSS MAINE ON WEDNESDAY...THE ONSET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO MID
60S.  THESE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES LOWER FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY ...WITH HIGHS BY
WEDNESDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 40
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR
SO COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATION THEREAFTER.  BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AS HIGH AS 45 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING LEAVING BEHIND A CLEAR SKY.  THESE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE ENDING
06Z/FRI.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN 5 KT
AND 15 KT..WITH SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH DAYLIGHT THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM TOMORROW FOR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EAST CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...

AN ESTABLISHED NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS
AND THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION
CLIMATOLOGY IN THE REGION /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN 5
DAYS/...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND CERTAIN AREAS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE ADIRONDACKS REGION AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON THURSDAY AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
SPECIFIC HEADLINES WILL BE COORDINATED WITH THE APPROPRIATE
OFFICIALS AND UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND ALONG AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM








000
FXUS61 KALY 240500
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
100 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATED ALL SHOWERS ARE OVER AND IN
FACT...THE SKY WAS CLEARING ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE BREEZE REMAINS UP
AND WILL DO DURING THE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES
(BEING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGH) WENT AHEAD AND RAISED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. THAT WILL MEAN LOWS
WILL END UP BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER NORTH.
THE BREEZE WILL MAKE THESE TEMPERATURES FEEL AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THESE VALUES AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SCALE SURFACE DIVERGENCE GIVING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
OFF THE COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AN
ESTABLISHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PARAMETERS ALSO SET UP FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
FURTHER DETAILS AND FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO
MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH A FEW LOWER 60S.
AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. WITH T850 BETWEEN
4C AND 6C AND T925 BETWEEN 8C AND 10C...WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
LATEST 12Z MODELS AND NUMERICAL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT QUICKLY...AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING PATTERN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CAROLINAS DIGGING ACROSS OUR AREA
BEGINNING WITH THE NEW WEEK.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL HEAD EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY.  THIS LOW WILL
SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY ON ITS JOURNEY...MAKING LITTLE FURTHER PROGRESS
ON WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL SPILL OUT AHEAD OF IT...
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WITH THE STUBBORN
RIDGE DOWN ACROSS MAINE ON WEDNESDAY...THE ONSET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO MID
60S.  THESE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES LOWER FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY ...WITH HIGHS BY
WEDNESDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 40
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR
SO COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATION THEREAFTER.  BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AS HIGH AS 45 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND KPSF...AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF GRADUALLY RISING BACK TO VFR...CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR AT ALL THE SITES.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN 5
KT AND 15 KT..WITH SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KALB TONIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM TOMORROW FOR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EAST CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...

AN ESTABLISHED NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS
AND THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION
CLIMATOLOGY IN THE REGION /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN 5
DAYS/...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND CERTAIN AREAS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE ADIRONDACKS REGION AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON THURSDAY AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
SPECIFIC HEADLINES WILL BE COORDINATED WITH THE APPROPRIATE
OFFICIALS AND UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND ALONG AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM










000
FXUS61 KALY 240209
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1009 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION WITH CLEARING AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. TONIGHT...A BREEZE
WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS ARE ABOUT GONE...AND CLOUD COVER IS ERODING FROM WEST TO
EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WINDS
WILL STAY UP. JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

PREV DISC. BELOW...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OVER LAKE HURON AND
LAKE ERIE AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT WITH AN ESTABLISHED NORTH-WESTERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH AS WE GO INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL USHER IN VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 20S FOR THE REST OF
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SCALE SURFACE DIVERGENCE GIVING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
OFF THE COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AN
ESTABLISHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PARAMETERS ALSO SET UP FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
FURTHER DETAILS AND FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO
MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH A FEW LOWER 60S.
AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. WITH T850 BETWEEN
4C AND 6C AND T925 BETWEEN 8C AND 10C...WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
LATEST 12Z MODELS AND NUMERICAL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT QUICKLY...AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING PATTERN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CAROLINAS DIGGING ACROSS OUR AREA
BEGINNING WITH THE NEW WEEK.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL HEAD EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY.  THIS LOW WILL
SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY ON ITS JOURNEY...MAKING LITTLE FURTHER PROGRESS
ON WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL SPILL OUT AHEAD OF IT...
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WITH THE STUBBORN
RIDGE DOWN ACROSS MAINE ON WEDNESDAY...THE ONSET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO MID
60S.  THESE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES LOWER FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY ...WITH HIGHS BY
WEDNESDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 40
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR
SO COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATION THEREAFTER.  BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AS HIGH AS 45 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND KPSF...AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF GRADUALLY RISING BACK TO VFR...CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR AT ALL THE SITES.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN 5
KT AND 15 KT..WITH SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KALB TONIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM TOMORROW FOR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EAST CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...

AN ESTABLISHED NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS
AND THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY
IN THE REGION /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN 5 DAYS/...A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND CERTAIN AREAS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS DOES NOT
INCLUDE THE ADIRONDACKS REGION AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON THURSDAY AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
SPECIFIC HEADLINES WILL BE COORDINATED WITH THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS
AND UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND ALONG AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM/NAS
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 240200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES AND DRAWS ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS OUT OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDY AND DRYING
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES. WINDS THEN DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFFSHORE WITH BACK EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD EAST OF
THE CAPE. STILL LOTS OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION BUT PARTIAL
CLEARING DEVELOPING TO THE WEST IN NEW YORK STATE. THIS CLEARING
WILL MOVE INTO SNE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY
E COASTAL MA.

COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...WITH VALUES OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED ALOFT OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
FORECAST NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

THE WIND WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED. SO NO RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S WILL ALLOW ROOM FOR TEMPS TO FALL.
BUT WITH WINDS STAYING UP...TEMPS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE HIGHER.
EXPECTED MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS IN EASTERN MASS SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE OFF. FULL APRIL SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO AT LEAST 850
MB...THIS IS INDICATED IN THE MODEL FORECASTS. GIVEN THE MODEL
CAPABILITY OF UNDERESTIMATING THE MIXING DEPTH...MIXING COULD REACH
TO 825 MB OR 800 MB. EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING TO MAINTAIN
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH 40 KNOTS. WE WILL
FEATURE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH AND MONITOR FOR STRONGER WINDS.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -3C...SUPPORTING MID 50S.  TEMPS AT
800 MB WILL BE AROUND -3C TO -4C...EQUIV TO 1-2C AT 850...AND WOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 60S. FORECAST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT
AROUND 60 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS. IF MIXING GOES DEEPER THAN 850 MB
THEN TEMPS COULD BUMP UP 3-4 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
DIMINISH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH INLAND.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNSEASONABLE TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...HOWEVER AT THE
SURFACE THERE ARE MANY VARIABLES WHICH HAS CAUSED DIFFERENCE
AMONGST THE MODELS. OVERALL CONTINUED FOCUSING THE FORECAST BASE
ON THE ENSEMBLES AS THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS VERY SPREAD
OUT...THUS LEADING TOWARDS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ESP FOR NEXT
WEEK.

QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AS LOW WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER A CLOSED TROUGH/LOW OVER THE
ROCKIES ON MONDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE FORCED EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN US BY WED IN A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK SETUP AS WARMING
RIDGES BUILD STRONGLY OVER THE WRN US.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES TO START THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COASTLINES WILL BE COOLER AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A WET WEATHER. THE EC WANT TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE FRONT RESULTING IN MORE QPF VERSUS THE GFS WHICH JUST
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. REGARDLESS IT APPEARS TO RAIN
SOMETIME ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING LASTING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LOCATION AND OVERALL
TIMING. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY SO HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER FOR NOW.
HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS MODELS WILL BECOME MORE IN-LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER.

OTHERWISE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECT
TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST RESULTING
IN HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY SUNDAY. SUNDAY
TEMPS MAY BE COOLER THEN FORECASTED AS NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW COULD YIELD TO ANOTHER COLD CORE LOW SITUATION. THE EC IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE SHOWING THIS WHERE AS THE GFS IS WARMER.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH THE DEPARTING LOW
MOVING OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

MID NEXT WEEK...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUES/WED.
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW PRESSURE SETS UP.
IF IT IS SOUTH OF THE REGION THEN WE COULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS
DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AS WELL AS UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED FOR THE STRONG GUSTS. THOSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND AT LEAST 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 45 KNOT GUSTS. ONCE
SKIES CLEAR...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND HIGH
CONFIDENCE THURSDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT -SHRA. LOW PROB OF SOME ISO THUNDER ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOME SHOWERY WEATHER
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. COOLER AIR DRAWN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THIS WILL PROMOTE BRINGING STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN FROM
ALOFT.  WINDS AT THOSE HIGHER LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
DURING TONIGHT AND 35-40 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
DRIVE THE SEA HEIGHT TO 5-8 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEW ENGLAND WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
HEADLINES STEPPING DOWN THROUGH SMALL CRAFTS BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.  THE OUTER WATERS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
INCREASE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOW OUT OF THE NW ON MONDAY AND BE BREEZY AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...MIN RH 20-30 PCT WITH DRIEST VALUES IN THE CT VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH MOST AREAS. BUT AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE CONTACTS IT IS CLEAR THAT NON-WEATHER
FACTORS ARE NOT FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. SO WE HAVE OPTED FOR NO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS MULTI-
FACETED SITUATION AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KALY 232333
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
733 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION WITH CLEARING AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. TONIGHT...A BREEZE
WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES AROUND...BUT THEY ARE
DRYING UP. THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH THE
NIGHT. JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREV DISC. BELOW...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OVER LAKE HURON AND
LAKE ERIE AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT WITH AN ESTABLISHED NORTH-WESTERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH AS WE GO INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL USHER IN VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 20S FOR THE REST OF
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SCALE SURFACE DIVERGENCE GIVING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
OFF THE COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AN
ESTABLISHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PARAMETERS ALSO SET UP FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
FURTHER DETAILS AND FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO
MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH A FEW LOWER 60S.
AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. WITH T850 BETWEEN
4C AND 6C AND T925 BETWEEN 8C AND 10C...WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
LATEST 12Z MODELS AND NUMERICAL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT QUICKLY...AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING PATTERN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CAROLINAS DIGGING ACROSS OUR AREA
BEGINNING WITH THE NEW WEEK.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL HEAD EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY.  THIS LOW WILL
SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY ON ITS JOURNEY...MAKING LITTLE FURTHER PROGRESS
ON WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL SPILL OUT AHEAD OF IT...
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WITH THE STUBBORN
RIDGE DOWN ACROSS MAINE ON WEDNESDAY...THE ONSET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO MID
60S.  THESE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES LOWER FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY ...WITH HIGHS BY
WEDNESDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 40
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR
SO COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATION THEREAFTER.  BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AS HIGH AS 45 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND KPSF...AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF GRADUALLY RISING BACK TO VFR...CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR AT ALL THE SITES.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN 5
KT AND 15 KT..WITH SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KALB TONIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM TOMORROW FOR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EAST CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...

AN ESTABLISHED NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS
AND THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY
IN THE REGION /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN 5 DAYS/...A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND CERTAIN AREAS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS DOES NOT
INCLUDE THE ADIRONDACKS REGION AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON THURSDAY AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
SPECIFIC HEADLINES WILL BE COORDINATED WITH THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS
AND UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND ALONG AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM/NAS
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 232251
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
651 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES AND DRAWS ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS OUT OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDY AND DRYING
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES. WINDS THEN DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

700 PM UPDATE...
LINGERING PRECIP OVER THE CAPE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TRENDED THE POP FORECAST TOWARDS THE HI-RES MODELS
WHICH ARE ON TRACK PER LATEST RADAR OBS. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS
AS SEVERAL SITES HAVE ALREADY REACHED 30KTS OR ABOVE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
PRECIP WILL BE OFFSHORE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A LLJ OF 40KTS AT 850MB.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...WITH VALUES OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED ALOFT OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
FORECAST NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

THE WIND WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED. SO NO RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S WILL ALLOW ROOM FOR TEMPS TO FALL.
BUT WITH WINDS STAYING UP...TEMPS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE HIGHER. WE
USED A RANGE OF UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS IN EASTERN MASS SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE OFF. FULL APRIL SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO AT LEAST 850
MB...THIS IS INDICATED IN THE MODEL FORECASTS. GIVEN THE MODEL
CAPABILITY OF UNDERESTIMATING THE MIXING DEPTH...MIXING COULD REACH
TO 825 MB OR 800 MB. EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING TO MAINTAIN
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH 40 KNOTS. WE WILL
FEATURE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH AND MONITOR FOR STRONGER WINDS.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -3C...SUPPORTING MID 50S.  TEMPS AT
800 MB WILL BE AROUND -3C TO -4C...EQUIV TO 1-2C AT 850...AND WOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 60S. FORECAST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT
AROUND 60 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS. IF MIXING GOES DEEPER THAN 850 MB
THEN TEMPS COULD BUMP UP 3-4 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
DIMINISH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH INLAND.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNSEASONABLE TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...HOWEVER AT THE
SURFACE THERE ARE MANY VARIABLES WHICH HAS CAUSED DIFFERENCE
AMONGST THE MODELS. OVERALL CONTINUED FOCUSING THE FORECAST BASE
ON THE ENSEMBLES AS THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS VERY SPREAD
OUT...THUS LEADING TOWARDS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ESP FOR NEXT
WEEK.

QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AS LOW WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER A CLOSED TROUGH/LOW OVER THE
ROCKIES ON MONDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE FORCED EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN US BY WED IN A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK SETUP AS WARMING
RIDGES BUILD STRONGLY OVER THE WRN US.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES TO START THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COASTLINES WILL BE COOLER AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A WET WEATHER. THE EC WANT TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE FRONT RESULTING IN MORE QPF VERSUS THE GFS WHICH JUST
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. REGARDLESS IT APPEARS TO RAIN
SOMETIME ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING LASTING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LOCATION AND OVERALL
TIMING. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY SO HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER FOR NOW.
HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS MODELS WILL BECOME MORE IN-LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER.

OTHERWISE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECT
TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST RESULTING
IN HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY SUNDAY. SUNDAY
TEMPS MAY BE COOLER THEN FORECASTED AS NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW COULD YIELD TO ANOTHER COLD CORE LOW SITUATION. THE EC IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE SHOWING THIS WHERE AS THE GFS IS WARMER.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH THE DEPARTING LOW
MOVING OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

MID NEXT WEEK...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUES/WED.
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW PRESSURE SETS UP.
IF IT IS SOUTH OF THE REGION THEN WE COULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS
DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AS WELL AS UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED FOR THE STRONG GUSTS. THOSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND AT LEAST 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 45 KNOT GUSTS. ONCE
SKIES CLEAR...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND HIGH
CONFIDENCE THURSDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT -SHRA. LOW PROB OF SOME ISO THUNDER ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOME SHOWERY WEATHER
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. COOLER AIR DRAWN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THIS WILL PROMOTE BRINGING STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN FROM
ALOFT.  WINDS AT THOSE HIGHER LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
DURING TONIGHT AND 35-40 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
DRIVE THE SEA HEIGHT TO 5-8 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEW ENGLAND WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
HEADLINES STEPPING DOWN THROUGH SMALL CRAFTS BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.  THE OUTER WATERS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
INCREASE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOW OUT OF THE NW ON MONDAY AND BE BREEZY AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...MIN RH 20-30 PCT WITH DRIEST VALUES IN THE CT VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH MOST AREAS. BUT AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE CONTACTS IT IS CLEAR THAT NON-WEATHER
FACTORS ARE NOT FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. SO WE HAVE OPTED FOR NO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS MULTI-
FACETED SITUATION AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...WTB




000
FXUS61 KALY 232037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION WITH CLEARING AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. TONIGHT...A BREEZE
WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION. SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE
BERKSHIRES MAY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT WILL CLEAR OUT AS WE
GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OVER LAKE HURON AND
LAKE ERIE AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT WITH AN ESTABLISHED NORTH-WESTERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH AS WE GO INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL USHER IN VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 20S FOR THE REST OF
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SCALE SURFACE DIVERGENCE GIVING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
OFF THE COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AN
ESTABLISHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PARAMETERS ALSO SET UP FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
FURTHER DETAILS AND FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO
MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH A FEW LOWER 60S.
AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. WITH T850 BETWEEN
4C AND 6C AND T925 BETWEEN 8C AND 10C...WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
LATEST 12Z MODELS AND NUMERICAL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT QUICKLY...AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING PATTERN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CAROLINAS DIGGING ACROSS OUR AREA
BEGINNING WITH THE NEW WEEK.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL HEAD EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY.  THIS LOW WILL
SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY ON ITS JOURNEY...MAKING LITTLE FURTHER PROGRESS
ON WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL SPILL OUT AHEAD OF IT...
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WITH THE STUBBORN
RIDGE DOWN ACROSS MAINE ON WEDNESDAY...THE ONSET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO MID
60S.  THESE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES LOWER FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY ...WITH HIGHS BY
WEDNESDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 40
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR
SO COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATION THEREAFTER.  BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AS HIGH AS 45 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXITING THE AREA AND
SHOWERS AT KGFL/KALB HAVE ENDED. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AT
KPSF/KPOU THROUGH AROUND 20Z...BUT KPOU WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
EVEN IF SOME -SHRA OCCUR. AT KPSF HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 32 KTS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 24 KTS...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM TOMORROW FOR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EAST CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...

AN ESTABLISHED NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS
AND THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY
IN THE REGION /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN 5 DAYS/...A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND CERTAIN AREAS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS DOES NOT
INCLUDE THE ADIRONDACKS REGION AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON THURSDAY AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
SPECIFIC HEADLINES WILL BE COORDINATED WITH THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS
AND UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND ALONG AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 231937
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
337 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES AND DRAWS ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS OUT OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDY AND DRYING
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES. WINDS THEN DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS TO DIMINISH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO
INCREASING WITH PRESSURE CHANGES OF 3-4MB/6 HOURS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. WE/VE SEEN STRONGER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
SUSTAINED WIND MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT... CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT BUT WITH VALUES
AROUND 70 PCT LINGERING BELOW 850 MB. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE BACK
CLOUD EDGE OVER ONTARIO WOULD BRING IT TO THE CT VALLEY AROUND 1230-
1 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...WITH VALUES OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED ALOFT OVERNIGHT.  WE WILL
FORECAST NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

THE WIND WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED. SO NO RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S WILL ALLOW ROOM FOR TEMPS TO FALL.
BUT WITH WINDS STAYING UP...TEMPS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE HIGHER. WE
USED A RANGE OF UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS IN EASTERN MASS SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE OFF. FULL APRIL SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO AT LEAST 850
MB...THIS IS INDICATED IN THE MODEL FORECASTS. GIVEN THE MODEL
CAPABILITY OF UNDERESTIMATING THE MIXING DEPTH...MIXING COULD REACH
TO 825 MB OR 800 MB. EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING TO MAINTAIN
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH 40 KNOTS. WE WILL
FEATURE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH AND MONITOR FOR STRONGER WINDS.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -3C...SUPPORTING MID 50S.  TEMPS AT
800 MB WILL BE AROUND -3C TO -4C...EQUIV TO 1-2C AT 850...AND WOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 60S. FORECAST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT
AROUND 60 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS. IF MIXING GOES DEEPER THAN 850 MB
THEN TEMPS COULD BUMP UP 3-4 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
DIMINISH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH INLAND.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNSEASONABLE TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...HOWEVER AT THE
SURFACE THERE ARE MANY VARIABLES WHICH HAS CAUSED DIFFERENCE
AMONGST THE MODELS. OVERALL CONTINUED FOCUSING THE FORECAST BASE
ON THE ENSEMBLES AS THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS VERY SPREAD
OUT...THUS LEADING TOWARDS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ESP FOR NEXT
WEEK.

QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AS LOW WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER A CLOSED TROUGH/LOW OVER THE
ROCKIES ON MONDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE FORCED EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN US BY WED IN A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK SETUP AS WARMING
RIDGES BUILD STRONGLY OVER THE WRN US.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES TO START THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COASTLINES WILL BE COOLER AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A WET WEATHER. THE EC WANT TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE FRONT RESULTING IN MORE QPF VERSUS THE GFS WHICH JUST
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. REGARDLESS IT APPEARS TO RAIN
SOMETIME ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING LASTING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LOCATION AND OVERALL
TIMING. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY SO HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER FOR NOW.
HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS MODELS WILL BECOME MORE IN-LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER.

OTHERWISE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECT
TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST RESULTING
IN HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY SUNDAY. SUNDAY
TEMPS MAY BE COOLER THEN FORECASTED AS NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW COULD YIELD TO ANOTHER COLD CORE LOW SITUATION. THE EC IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE SHOWING THIS WHERE AS THE GFS IS WARMER.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH THE DEPARTING LOW
MOVING OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

MID NEXT WEEK...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUES/WED.
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW PRESSURE SETS UP.
IF IT IS SOUTH OF THE REGION THEN WE COULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS
DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AS WELL AS UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED FOR THE STRONG GUSTS. THOSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND AT LEAST 35 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 40 KNOT GUSTS.  THE BACK EDGE
OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REACH THE CT VALLEY BY 1 AM...AND THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY DAWN. ONCE SKIES CLEAR...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND HIGH
CONFIDENCE THURSDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT -SHRA. LOW PROB OF SOME ISO THUNDER ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOME SHOWERY WEATHER
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. COOLER AIR DRAWN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THIS WILL PROMOTE BRINGING STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN FROM
ALOFT.  WINDS AT THOSE HIGHER LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
DURING TONIGHT AND 35-40 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
DRIVE THE SEA HEIGHT TO 5-8 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEW ENGLAND WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
HEADLINES STEPPING DOWN THROUGH SMALL CRAFTS BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.  THE OUTER WATERS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
INCREASE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOW OUT OF THE NW ON MONDAY AND BE BREEZY AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...MIN RH 20-30 PCT WITH DRIEST VALUES IN THE CT VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH MOST AREAS. BUT AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE CONTACTS IT IS CLEAR THAT NON-WEATHER
FACTORS ARE NOT FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. SO WE HAVE OPTED FOR NO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS MULTI-
FACETED SITUATION AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...WTB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231930
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
330 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES AND DRAWS ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS OUT OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDY AND DRYING
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES. WINDS THEN DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS TO DIMINISH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO
INCREASING WITH PRESSURE CHANGES OF 3-4MB/6 HOURS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. WE/VE SEEN STRONGER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
SUSTAINED WIND MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT... CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT BUT WITH VALUES
AROUND 70 PCT LINGERING BELOW 850 MB. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE BACK
CLOUD EDGE OVER ONTARIO WOULD BRING IT TO THE CT VALLEY AROUND 1230-
1 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...WITH VALUES OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED ALOFT OVERNIGHT.  WE WILL
FORECAST NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

THE WIND WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED. SO NO RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S WILL ALLOW ROOM FOR TEMPS TO FALL.
BUT WITH WINDS STAYING UP...TEMPS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE HIGHER. WE
USED A RANGE OF UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS IN EASTERN MASS SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE OFF. FULL APRIL SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO AT LEAST 850
MB...THIS IS INDICATED IN THE MODEL FORECASTS. GIVEN THE MODEL
CAPABILITY OF UNDERESTIMATING THE MIXING DEPTH...MIXING COULD REACH
TO 825 MB OR 800 MB. EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING TO MAINTAIN
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH 40 KNOTS. WE WILL
FEATURE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH AND MONITOR FOR STRONGER WINDS.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -3C...SUPPORTING MID 50S.  TEMPS AT
800 MB WILL BE AROUND -3C TO -4C...EQUIV TO 1-2C AT 850...AND WOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 60S. FORECAST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT
AROUND 60 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS. IF MIXING GOES DEEPER THAN 850 MB
THEN TEMPS COULD BUMP UP 3-4 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
DIMINISH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH INLAND.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

23/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM THOUGH
THE GFS LEANS MORE TOWARDS A BLOCKED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN
THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW AND THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BUT THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
BEYOND THIS...A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS BLOCK.  STRONG MID LEVEL
TROUGH EITHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR JUST EAST OVER THE
MARITIMES RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH
ALLOWING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THIS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
ACCOMPANYING QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NORTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION WITH
THE LOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE LOW THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  REGARDLESS...THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED FOR THE STRONG GUSTS. THOSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND AT LEAST 35 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 40 KNOT GUSTS.  THE BACK EDGE
OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REACH THE CT VALLEY BY 1 AM...AND THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY DAWN. ONCE SKIES CLEAR...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND HIGH
CONFIDENCE THURSDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. COOLER AIR DRAWN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THIS WILL PROMOTE BRINGING STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN FROM
ALOFT.  WINDS AT THOSE HIGHER LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
DURING TONIGHT AND 35-40 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
DRIVE THE SEA HEIGHT TO 5-8 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEW ENGLAND WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
HEADLINES STEPPING DOWN THROUGH SMALL CRAFTS BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.  THE OUTER WATERS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE AS
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...MIN RH 20-30 PCT WITH DRIEST VALUES IN THE CT VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH MOST AREAS. BUT AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE CONTACTS IT IS CLEAR THAT NON-WEATHER
FACTORS ARE NOT FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. SO WE HAVE OPTED FOR NO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS MULTI-
FACETED SITUATION AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KALY 231719
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE
CAPITAL REGION AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS
AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT
THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM...RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW IN MUCH LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION THAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS
AREAS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND THE
LITCHFIELD HILLS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE FROM THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION POINTS NORTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVERAGE WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ACROSS THE REGION
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID 50S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-40 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO
LOOSE IT GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXITING THE AREA AND
SHOWERS AT KGFL/KALB HAVE ENDED. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AT
KPSF/KPOU THROUGH AROUND 20Z...BUT KPOU WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
EVEN IF SOME -SHRA OCCUR. AT KPSF HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 32 KTS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 24 KTS...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL
BE THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RH VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL











000
FXUS61 KALY 231701
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
101 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE
CAPITAL REGION AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS
AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT
THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM...RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW IN MUCH LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION THAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS
AREAS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND THE
LITCHFIELD HILLS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE FROM THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION POINTS NORTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVERAGE WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ACROSS THE REGION
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID 50S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-40 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LOOSE IT
GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INCREASING WINDS...MVFR CIGS AND COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE MAIN THEMES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MAIN UPPER LOW WAS JUST MOVING EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THIS EARLY
MORNING.  UPON ITS PASSAGE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
THOSE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THOSE CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CLIMBS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KPSF WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

WIND MAGNITUDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THAT AFOREMENTIONED MIXING LAYER CLIMBS.  GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL BE
THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL








000
FXUS61 KBOX 231451
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1051 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENG THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING WIND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION UNDER THE UPPER LOW FIRED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS DURING THE MORNING...MAINLY THE CENTRAL HILLS AND EAST.
THERE WERE A FEW REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TOTAL-
TOTALS OF 50-52. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST OF LIKELY
SHOWERS/CHANCE THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WE WOULD EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF 25-30 MPH.

NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST...GENERALLY 50S WITH WARMEST
TEMPS SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MA IN THE EVENING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GRADUAL CLEARING MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS PERSISTING MOST OF THE NIGHT
IN EASTERN NEW ENG WHICH REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM
NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW. GUSTY NW WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS E
COASTAL MA IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO 40 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -2C SO MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 60 IN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

23/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM THOUGH
THE GFS LEANS MORE TOWARDS A BLOCKED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN
THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW AND THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BUT THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
BEYOND THIS...A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS BLOCK.  STRONG MID LEVEL
TROUGH EITHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR JUST EAST OVER THE
MARITIMES RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH
ALLOWING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THIS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH ACCOMPANYING QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NORTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION WITH
THE LOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE LOW THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  REGARDLESS...THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN. INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 35-40 KT THURSDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING
THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS. INCREASING NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE AS
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP
TO 20-25 PERCENT AND IT WILL BE RATHER WINDY WITH NW GUSTS TO 40
MPH EXPECTED. NON-WEATHER FACTORS FOR HEADLINES ARE STILL IN
QUESTION AND WILL BE EVALUATED/COORDINATED THIS AFTERNOON. STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON THE FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KALY 231302
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
902 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX
IN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS
WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND
TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 900 AM EDT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE BLOSSOMED IN
EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
RADAR INDICATING SOME MODERATE BURSTS OF RAINFALL JUST WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AT THIS HOUR. WILL RAISE POPS TO
BETWEEN 60-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS THE
UPPER LOW QUICKLY PULLS AWAY. WILL DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE RANGE
AFTER 1 PM.

MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE RAIN. HOWEVER...IT MIGHT BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS...ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
REAL ACCUMULATIONS...MAYBE A COATING ON SOME GRASSY AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SUNSHINE IN THE VALLEYS AREAS
ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION BY LATE IN THE
DAY. DUE TO COOL AIR AND ALOFT THERE STILL COULD BE FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID 50S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-40 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LOOSE IT
GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING WINDS...MVFR CIGS AND COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE MAIN THEMES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MAIN UPPER LOW WAS JUST MOVING EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THIS EARLY
MORNING.  UPON ITS PASSAGE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
THOSE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THOSE CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CLIMBS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KPSF WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

WIND MAGNITUDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THAT AFOREMENTIONED MIXING LAYER CLIMBS.  GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL BE
THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL








000
FXUS61 KBOX 231052
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
652 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENG TODAY AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING WIND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
IS THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE VERY VARIABLE
RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO TO 10 MILES. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID-
MORNING. IN ADDITION....SHOWERS ARE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS THE
UPPER LOW NEARS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO BOTH VISIBILITIES AND POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY...BUT UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN ACCOMPANYING POTENT SHORTWAVE. TEMPS AT
500 MB COOL TO -26C UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN FOR MOCLDY SKIES TODAY AND THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACTING ON THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DECENT
850-500 MB QG FORCING WILL RESULT IN SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENG WHERE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND BEST
FORCING. TOTAL TOTALS SPIKE IN THE THE 50S SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TSTM AND GIVEN LOW FREEZING LEVELS SMALL HAIL IS A
POSSIBILITY.

2M TEMPS SUGGEST MAXES MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
RESULT IN BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS TO
30-35 MPH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MA IN THE EVENING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GRADUAL CLEARING MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS PERSISTING MOST OF THE NIGHT
IN EASTERN NEW ENG WHICH REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM
NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW. GUSTY NW WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS E
COASTAL MA IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO 40 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -2C SO MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 60 IN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

23/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM THOUGH
THE GFS LEANS MORE TOWARDS A BLOCKED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN
THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW AND THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BUT THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
BEYOND THIS...A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS BLOCK.  STRONG MID LEVEL
TROUGH EITHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR JUST EAST OVER THE
MARITIMES RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH
ALLOWING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THIS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH ACCOMPANYING QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NORTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION WITH
THE LOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE LOW THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  REGARDLESS...THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS. ISOLD THUNDER
POSSIBLE. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 35-40 KT THURSDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING
THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS. INCREASING NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE AS
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO
20-25 PERCENT AND IT WILL BE RATHER WINDY WITH NW GUSTS TO 40 MPH
EXPECTED. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON THE
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KALY 231037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.
SOME OF THESE MIGHT EVEN BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 630 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE REGION AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW (20,000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND) WAS MOVE JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF ALBANY. THIS SYSTEM WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONTINUATION OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...IT MIGHT BE
JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS (MAYBE A
COATING ON SOME GRASSY AREAS).

TEMPERATURES THIS EARLY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND EVEN IN THE VALLEYS...WILL NOT RISE MUCH AT ALL.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SUNSHINE IN THE VALLEYS AREAS
(ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS) LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION BY DAY/
END. DUE TO COOL AIR AND ALOFT THERE STILL COULD BE FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT. IT WILL BE
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THESE OVER THE ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS TO FALL AS SNOW...BUT LIKELY NOT
ACCUMULATION MUCH IF AT ALL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CREST ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...50 TO 55 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...UPPER 50S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-45 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES
(CAPITAL DISTRICT/HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LOOSE IT
GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING WINDS...MVFR CIGS AND COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE MAIN THEMES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MAIN UPPER LOW WAS JUST MOVING EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THIS EARLY
MORNING.  UPON ITS PASSAGE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
THOSE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THOSE CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CLIMBS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KPSF WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

WIND MAGNITUDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THAT AFOREMENTIONED MIXING LAYER CLIMBS.  GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL BE
THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL










000
FXUS61 KALY 230832
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.
SOME OF THESE MIGHT EVEN BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY NORTHWARD TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. OTHER
SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS HERKIMER COUNTY.

THESE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER AIR LOW...DIGGING
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL PA. THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE BROAD ASCENT
AND A COLD POOL FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THIS IN TURN WILL YIELD TO
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...BUT WITH
THE COLD POOL LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON...SOME SHOWERS COULD PERSIST
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN VERMONT.

MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...IT MIGHT BE
JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS (MAYBE A
COATING ON SOME GRASSY AREAS).

TEMPERATURES THIS EARLY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND EVEN IN THE VALLEYS...WILL NOT RISE MUCH AT ALL.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SUNSHINE IN THE VALLEYS AREAS
(ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS) LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREST ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...50 TO 55 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...UPPER 50S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-45 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES
(CAPITAL DISTRICT/HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LOOSE IT
GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS REMAINS SCATTERED AS WE WILL KEEP A VCSH IN THE
TAFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH SOME GUSTS INTO KALB-KPSF. CEILINGS
WILL DIP INTO PERIODS OF MVFR AS LOWER CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE.  THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AS VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES FROM WEST OR NORTHWEST SLOWLY
OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY BECOME GUSTY OF 25 TO 35 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHOWER.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL BE
THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL










000
FXUS61 KBOX 230747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENG TODAY AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING WIND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY...BUT UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN ACCOMPANYING POTENT SHORTWAVE. TEMPS AT
500 MB COOL TO -26C UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN FOR MOCLDY SKIES TODAY AND THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACTING ON THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DECENT
850-500 MB QG FORCING WILL RESULT IN SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENG WHERE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND BEST
FORCING. TOTAL TOTALS SPIKE IN THE THE 50S SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TSTM AND GIVEN LOW FREEZING LEVELS SMALL HAIL IS A
POSSIBILITY.

2M TEMPS SUGGEST MAXES MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
RESULT IN BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS TO
30-35 MPH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MA IN THE EVENING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GRADUAL CLEARING MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS PERSISTING MOST OF THE NIGHT
IN EASTERN NEW ENG WHICH REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM
NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW. GUSTY NW WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS E
COASTAL MA IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO 40 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -2C SO MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 60 IN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

23/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM THOUGH
THE GFS LEANS MORE TOWARDS A BLOCKED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN
THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW AND THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BUT THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
BEYOND THIS...A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS BLOCK.  STRONG MID LEVEL
TROUGH EITHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR JUST EAST OVER THE
MARITIMES RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH
ALLOWING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THIS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH ACCOMPANYING QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NORTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION WITH
THE LOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE LOW THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  REGARDLESS...THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS. ISOLD THUNDER
POSSIBLE. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 35-40 KT THURSDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING
THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS. INCREASING NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE AS
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO
20-25 PERCENT AND IT WILL BE RATHER WINDY WITH NW GUSTS TO 40 MPH
EXPECTED. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON THE
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...KJC




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