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000
FXUS61 KALY 232030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.  LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING SOME RAIN FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT SOUTH AND EAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS. THE MOSTLY
CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL YIELD IDEAL
RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH
SOME U30S IN SRN VT...THE SRN DACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS...AND NEAR THE
SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE UPSTREAM WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A NICE EARLY AUTUMN DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE RETREATS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LOW PRESSURE MOVES N/NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE S/SW IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.
H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +10C WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WED NIGHT...STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE ALONG THE EAST COAST. OUR
FCST FAVORS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/NAM. SOME WARM
ADVECTION LIGHT RAINFALL WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE SRN TIER BTWN
06Z-12Z...MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ONLY...AND MILDER TEMPS IN THE 40S TO L50S.

THU-THU NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE
NY AND PA WITH SFC WAVE TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OF NYC. A DECENT
FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN TACONICS AND NW CT. THIS COULD
BE A VERY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. A SHARP CUTOFF IS EXPECTED IN THE PCPN SHIELD...WITH THE
BETTER QG OMEGA/LIFT OVER THE SE EXTREME OF THE AREA. SOME
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION MAY STAY DRY THE
ENTIRE EVENT...AND EVEN HAVE A LITTLE SUNSHINE ON THU. HIGHS WERE
FAVORED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS...AS THERE IS
QUITE A RANGE BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE OVER RUNNING RAINFALL.
THE NAM MOS IS MUCH COOLER THAN THE GFS MOS. THE RAINFALL SHOULD
TAPER OFF ACROSS THE E/SE ZONES EARLY THU NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE U60S TO L70S NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES...AND U50S TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 40S TO L50S. TOTAL RAINFALL MAY RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND SRN BERKS SOUTH AND EAST...AND NOTHING TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES ANOTHER NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...AND TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLD
SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOTS OF FAIR AND PLEASANT EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GORGEOUS WEATHER WITH INCREASING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. H850 TEMPS RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
+13C TO +15C RANGE. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RUN 10 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO M50S. HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DESCENDS S/SE FROM THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT
CHC OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL LOWER BACK TO
SEASONAL LEVELS.

OVERALL...BELOW NORMAL PCPN...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING FROM THE NORTH IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU CLOUDS FOR KALB/KGFL.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS
FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KPSF/KPOU. WINDS ARE LIGHT AT
KPOU/KPSF...BUT WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY...ARE GUSTY
AROUND KALB/KGFL FROM VARIABLE DIRECTIONS. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
KTS FOR KALB/KGFL WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES.

BY THE EVENING HOURS...THE LOSS OF HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY CLOUDS
TO DISSIPATE AND WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT AT
KPSF/KGFL...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE. SOME
HIGH CIRRUS WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS
A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.  LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING SOME RAIN FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT SOUTH AND EAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THEY WILL BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
10 MPH.

THE RH WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN FALL TO
40 TO 60 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
90 TO 100 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. HEAVY DEW FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING SUNDAY.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF THE RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN THESE AREA. MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER
NORTH.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER.

RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW
SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 232030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.  LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING SOME RAIN FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT SOUTH AND EAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS. THE MOSTLY
CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL YIELD IDEAL
RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH
SOME U30S IN SRN VT...THE SRN DACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS...AND NEAR THE
SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE UPSTREAM WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A NICE EARLY AUTUMN DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE RETREATS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LOW PRESSURE MOVES N/NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE S/SW IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.
H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +10C WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WED NIGHT...STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE ALONG THE EAST COAST. OUR
FCST FAVORS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/NAM. SOME WARM
ADVECTION LIGHT RAINFALL WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE SRN TIER BTWN
06Z-12Z...MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ONLY...AND MILDER TEMPS IN THE 40S TO L50S.

THU-THU NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE
NY AND PA WITH SFC WAVE TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OF NYC. A DECENT
FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN TACONICS AND NW CT. THIS COULD
BE A VERY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. A SHARP CUTOFF IS EXPECTED IN THE PCPN SHIELD...WITH THE
BETTER QG OMEGA/LIFT OVER THE SE EXTREME OF THE AREA. SOME
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION MAY STAY DRY THE
ENTIRE EVENT...AND EVEN HAVE A LITTLE SUNSHINE ON THU. HIGHS WERE
FAVORED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS...AS THERE IS
QUITE A RANGE BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE OVER RUNNING RAINFALL.
THE NAM MOS IS MUCH COOLER THAN THE GFS MOS. THE RAINFALL SHOULD
TAPER OFF ACROSS THE E/SE ZONES EARLY THU NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE U60S TO L70S NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES...AND U50S TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 40S TO L50S. TOTAL RAINFALL MAY RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND SRN BERKS SOUTH AND EAST...AND NOTHING TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES ANOTHER NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...AND TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLD
SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOTS OF FAIR AND PLEASANT EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GORGEOUS WEATHER WITH INCREASING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. H850 TEMPS RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
+13C TO +15C RANGE. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RUN 10 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO M50S. HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DESCENDS S/SE FROM THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT
CHC OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL LOWER BACK TO
SEASONAL LEVELS.

OVERALL...BELOW NORMAL PCPN...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING FROM THE NORTH IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU CLOUDS FOR KALB/KGFL.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS
FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KPSF/KPOU. WINDS ARE LIGHT AT
KPOU/KPSF...BUT WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY...ARE GUSTY
AROUND KALB/KGFL FROM VARIABLE DIRECTIONS. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
KTS FOR KALB/KGFL WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES.

BY THE EVENING HOURS...THE LOSS OF HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY CLOUDS
TO DISSIPATE AND WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT AT
KPSF/KGFL...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE. SOME
HIGH CIRRUS WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS
A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.  LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING SOME RAIN FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT SOUTH AND EAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THEY WILL BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
10 MPH.

THE RH WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN FALL TO
40 TO 60 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
90 TO 100 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. HEAVY DEW FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING SUNDAY.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF THE RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN THESE AREA. MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER
NORTH.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER.

RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW
SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA







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000
FXUS61 KBOX 232001
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN AND COOL
TEMPERATURES TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENG THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.  COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
SOMETIME NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS SUGGEST GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL LIMIT COOLING POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. EXPECT MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH LOWER 50S BOS/PVD URBAN CENTERS...BUT
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COLD SPOTS IN THE UPPER CT
VALLEY AND INTERIOR E MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THE COLUMN IS STILL DRY SO EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES ALTHOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY...EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE E MA COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE NC COAST BUT HIGH PRES IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL BE SLOW TO BUDGE. DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS HANGS ON THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
RAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WED NIGHT. JUST A LOW PROB FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE S COAST BY DAYBREAK...BUT IT IS MORE
LIKELY THAT RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR SOAKING RAIN THU/THU NIGHT SOUTH OF I-90
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND
* BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COOLS US DOWN SOME BY NEXT MON OR TUE

DETAILS...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

PRETTY MUCH ALL OF OUR MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET HAVE TRENDED
SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH OCEAN STORM THU/THU NIGHT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS.  CONFIDENCE IS NOW INCREASING IN APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE THU INTO THU NIGHT...BUT PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST.  WE CERTAINLY NEED TO
REACT TO THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL TRENDS AT THIS POINT.  THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SOAKING RAIN LOOKS MUCH BETTER SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.
HOWEVER...STILL SOME RED FLAGS IN THIS SITUATION. THE MODELS
NOTORIOUSLY STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY
WITH LIMITED BAROCLINICITY THIS TIME OF YEAR.  SO WHILE APPRECIABLE
AND PERHAPS EVEN A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN APPEARS MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE...AMOUNTS AND WHERE A SHARP CUTOFF IN QPF AMOUNTS
TAKES PLACE IS UNCERTAIN.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT AREAS NORTH OF ROUTE 2
AND INTO SOUTHERN NH...SEE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IF MODELS TREND A
BIT BACK TO THE SOUTH.  STILL 48+ HOURS OUT SO A TREND FURTHER NORTH
OR SOUTH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

SO ALL IN ALL...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER IN APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE THU/THU NIGHT.  ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS
CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL IS LOWER...BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY.

HIGH SURF...SINCE ITS STILL SEPTEMBER WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST PART OF FRIDAY
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS MAY
KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THE COAST...BUT THE INTERIOR WILL PROBABLY
REACH 70 TO 75 AS SUN IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  THE MODELS
DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS WARM AS THEY HAVE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS IS A RESULT OF THE OCEAN SYSTEM HAVING MUCH MORE OF AN IMPACT
THAN EARLIER THOUGHT.  STILL THINK THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO SEE HIGHS TOP OUT NEAR
80.  DEFINITELY GREAT WEATHER FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH LOW
HUMIDITY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SWING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT...BUT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER.  MAY STILL BE
ABLE TO REACH INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY..."IF" THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.  OBVIOUSLY TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT.  HIGHS PROBABLY WILL BE HELD IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY BUT
LOOKS MAINLY DRY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...

  SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR...BUT ISOLD FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. ANY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN S OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
WED NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. STILL A CHANCE A SEABREEZE WILL
DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU AND CONTINUE THU NIGHT IN RAIN
SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE.  ITS MORE UNCERTAIN IF RAIN AND LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS REACH INTO FAR NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOWER CIGS MAY LINGER INTO FRI ALONG
THE COAST FOR AT LEAST A PART OF THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...REST OF THE
REGION SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR BY LATE MORNING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING WED IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
PRES GRADIENT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE LATE WED
NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT OVER THE RI COASTAL WATERS WED
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CUTOFF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL GENERATE A GOOD NORTHEAST
GRADIENT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.  NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF NEAR GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10
FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  IN ADDITION...RAIN WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES FOR MARINERS AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS WILL LIKELY
LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AS A RESULT OF LEFT OVER SWELL.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS FRIDAY NIGHT WEARS ON.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDING WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 232001
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN AND COOL
TEMPERATURES TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENG THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.  COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
SOMETIME NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS SUGGEST GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL LIMIT COOLING POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. EXPECT MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH LOWER 50S BOS/PVD URBAN CENTERS...BUT
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COLD SPOTS IN THE UPPER CT
VALLEY AND INTERIOR E MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THE COLUMN IS STILL DRY SO EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES ALTHOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY...EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE E MA COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE NC COAST BUT HIGH PRES IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL BE SLOW TO BUDGE. DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS HANGS ON THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
RAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WED NIGHT. JUST A LOW PROB FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE S COAST BY DAYBREAK...BUT IT IS MORE
LIKELY THAT RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR SOAKING RAIN THU/THU NIGHT SOUTH OF I-90
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND
* BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COOLS US DOWN SOME BY NEXT MON OR TUE

DETAILS...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

PRETTY MUCH ALL OF OUR MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET HAVE TRENDED
SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH OCEAN STORM THU/THU NIGHT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS.  CONFIDENCE IS NOW INCREASING IN APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE THU INTO THU NIGHT...BUT PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST.  WE CERTAINLY NEED TO
REACT TO THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL TRENDS AT THIS POINT.  THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SOAKING RAIN LOOKS MUCH BETTER SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.
HOWEVER...STILL SOME RED FLAGS IN THIS SITUATION. THE MODELS
NOTORIOUSLY STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY
WITH LIMITED BAROCLINICITY THIS TIME OF YEAR.  SO WHILE APPRECIABLE
AND PERHAPS EVEN A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN APPEARS MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE...AMOUNTS AND WHERE A SHARP CUTOFF IN QPF AMOUNTS
TAKES PLACE IS UNCERTAIN.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT AREAS NORTH OF ROUTE 2
AND INTO SOUTHERN NH...SEE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IF MODELS TREND A
BIT BACK TO THE SOUTH.  STILL 48+ HOURS OUT SO A TREND FURTHER NORTH
OR SOUTH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

SO ALL IN ALL...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER IN APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE THU/THU NIGHT.  ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS
CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL IS LOWER...BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY.

HIGH SURF...SINCE ITS STILL SEPTEMBER WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST PART OF FRIDAY
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS MAY
KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THE COAST...BUT THE INTERIOR WILL PROBABLY
REACH 70 TO 75 AS SUN IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  THE MODELS
DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS WARM AS THEY HAVE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS IS A RESULT OF THE OCEAN SYSTEM HAVING MUCH MORE OF AN IMPACT
THAN EARLIER THOUGHT.  STILL THINK THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO SEE HIGHS TOP OUT NEAR
80.  DEFINITELY GREAT WEATHER FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH LOW
HUMIDITY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SWING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT...BUT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER.  MAY STILL BE
ABLE TO REACH INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY..."IF" THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.  OBVIOUSLY TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT.  HIGHS PROBABLY WILL BE HELD IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY BUT
LOOKS MAINLY DRY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...

  SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR...BUT ISOLD FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. ANY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN S OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
WED NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. STILL A CHANCE A SEABREEZE WILL
DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU AND CONTINUE THU NIGHT IN RAIN
SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE.  ITS MORE UNCERTAIN IF RAIN AND LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS REACH INTO FAR NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOWER CIGS MAY LINGER INTO FRI ALONG
THE COAST FOR AT LEAST A PART OF THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...REST OF THE
REGION SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR BY LATE MORNING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING WED IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
PRES GRADIENT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE LATE WED
NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT OVER THE RI COASTAL WATERS WED
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CUTOFF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL GENERATE A GOOD NORTHEAST
GRADIENT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.  NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF NEAR GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10
FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  IN ADDITION...RAIN WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES FOR MARINERS AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS WILL LIKELY
LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AS A RESULT OF LEFT OVER SWELL.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS FRIDAY NIGHT WEARS ON.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDING WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 232001
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN AND COOL
TEMPERATURES TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENG THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.  COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
SOMETIME NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS SUGGEST GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL LIMIT COOLING POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. EXPECT MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH LOWER 50S BOS/PVD URBAN CENTERS...BUT
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COLD SPOTS IN THE UPPER CT
VALLEY AND INTERIOR E MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THE COLUMN IS STILL DRY SO EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES ALTHOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY...EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE E MA COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE NC COAST BUT HIGH PRES IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL BE SLOW TO BUDGE. DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS HANGS ON THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
RAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WED NIGHT. JUST A LOW PROB FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE S COAST BY DAYBREAK...BUT IT IS MORE
LIKELY THAT RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR SOAKING RAIN THU/THU NIGHT SOUTH OF I-90
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND
* BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COOLS US DOWN SOME BY NEXT MON OR TUE

DETAILS...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

PRETTY MUCH ALL OF OUR MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET HAVE TRENDED
SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH OCEAN STORM THU/THU NIGHT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS.  CONFIDENCE IS NOW INCREASING IN APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE THU INTO THU NIGHT...BUT PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST.  WE CERTAINLY NEED TO
REACT TO THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL TRENDS AT THIS POINT.  THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SOAKING RAIN LOOKS MUCH BETTER SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.
HOWEVER...STILL SOME RED FLAGS IN THIS SITUATION. THE MODELS
NOTORIOUSLY STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY
WITH LIMITED BAROCLINICITY THIS TIME OF YEAR.  SO WHILE APPRECIABLE
AND PERHAPS EVEN A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN APPEARS MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE...AMOUNTS AND WHERE A SHARP CUTOFF IN QPF AMOUNTS
TAKES PLACE IS UNCERTAIN.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT AREAS NORTH OF ROUTE 2
AND INTO SOUTHERN NH...SEE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IF MODELS TREND A
BIT BACK TO THE SOUTH.  STILL 48+ HOURS OUT SO A TREND FURTHER NORTH
OR SOUTH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

SO ALL IN ALL...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER IN APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE THU/THU NIGHT.  ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS
CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL IS LOWER...BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY.

HIGH SURF...SINCE ITS STILL SEPTEMBER WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST PART OF FRIDAY
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS MAY
KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THE COAST...BUT THE INTERIOR WILL PROBABLY
REACH 70 TO 75 AS SUN IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  THE MODELS
DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS WARM AS THEY HAVE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS IS A RESULT OF THE OCEAN SYSTEM HAVING MUCH MORE OF AN IMPACT
THAN EARLIER THOUGHT.  STILL THINK THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO SEE HIGHS TOP OUT NEAR
80.  DEFINITELY GREAT WEATHER FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH LOW
HUMIDITY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SWING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT...BUT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER.  MAY STILL BE
ABLE TO REACH INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY..."IF" THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.  OBVIOUSLY TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT.  HIGHS PROBABLY WILL BE HELD IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY BUT
LOOKS MAINLY DRY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...

  SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR...BUT ISOLD FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. ANY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN S OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
WED NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. STILL A CHANCE A SEABREEZE WILL
DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU AND CONTINUE THU NIGHT IN RAIN
SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE.  ITS MORE UNCERTAIN IF RAIN AND LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS REACH INTO FAR NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOWER CIGS MAY LINGER INTO FRI ALONG
THE COAST FOR AT LEAST A PART OF THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...REST OF THE
REGION SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR BY LATE MORNING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING WED IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
PRES GRADIENT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE LATE WED
NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT OVER THE RI COASTAL WATERS WED
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CUTOFF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL GENERATE A GOOD NORTHEAST
GRADIENT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.  NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF NEAR GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10
FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  IN ADDITION...RAIN WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES FOR MARINERS AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS WILL LIKELY
LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AS A RESULT OF LEFT OVER SWELL.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS FRIDAY NIGHT WEARS ON.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDING WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 232001
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN AND COOL
TEMPERATURES TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENG THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.  COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
SOMETIME NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS SUGGEST GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL LIMIT COOLING POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. EXPECT MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH LOWER 50S BOS/PVD URBAN CENTERS...BUT
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COLD SPOTS IN THE UPPER CT
VALLEY AND INTERIOR E MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THE COLUMN IS STILL DRY SO EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES ALTHOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY...EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE E MA COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE NC COAST BUT HIGH PRES IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL BE SLOW TO BUDGE. DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS HANGS ON THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
RAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WED NIGHT. JUST A LOW PROB FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE S COAST BY DAYBREAK...BUT IT IS MORE
LIKELY THAT RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR SOAKING RAIN THU/THU NIGHT SOUTH OF I-90
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND
* BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COOLS US DOWN SOME BY NEXT MON OR TUE

DETAILS...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

PRETTY MUCH ALL OF OUR MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET HAVE TRENDED
SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH OCEAN STORM THU/THU NIGHT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS.  CONFIDENCE IS NOW INCREASING IN APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE THU INTO THU NIGHT...BUT PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST.  WE CERTAINLY NEED TO
REACT TO THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL TRENDS AT THIS POINT.  THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SOAKING RAIN LOOKS MUCH BETTER SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.
HOWEVER...STILL SOME RED FLAGS IN THIS SITUATION. THE MODELS
NOTORIOUSLY STRUGGLE WITH CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY
WITH LIMITED BAROCLINICITY THIS TIME OF YEAR.  SO WHILE APPRECIABLE
AND PERHAPS EVEN A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN APPEARS MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE...AMOUNTS AND WHERE A SHARP CUTOFF IN QPF AMOUNTS
TAKES PLACE IS UNCERTAIN.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT AREAS NORTH OF ROUTE 2
AND INTO SOUTHERN NH...SEE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IF MODELS TREND A
BIT BACK TO THE SOUTH.  STILL 48+ HOURS OUT SO A TREND FURTHER NORTH
OR SOUTH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

SO ALL IN ALL...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER IN APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE THU/THU NIGHT.  ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS
CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL IS LOWER...BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY.

HIGH SURF...SINCE ITS STILL SEPTEMBER WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES OF THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST PART OF FRIDAY
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS MAY
KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THE COAST...BUT THE INTERIOR WILL PROBABLY
REACH 70 TO 75 AS SUN IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  THE MODELS
DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS WARM AS THEY HAVE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS IS A RESULT OF THE OCEAN SYSTEM HAVING MUCH MORE OF AN IMPACT
THAN EARLIER THOUGHT.  STILL THINK THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO SEE HIGHS TOP OUT NEAR
80.  DEFINITELY GREAT WEATHER FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH LOW
HUMIDITY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SWING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT...BUT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER.  MAY STILL BE
ABLE TO REACH INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY..."IF" THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.  OBVIOUSLY TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT.  HIGHS PROBABLY WILL BE HELD IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY BUT
LOOKS MAINLY DRY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...

  SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR...BUT ISOLD FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. ANY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN S OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
WED NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. STILL A CHANCE A SEABREEZE WILL
DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU AND CONTINUE THU NIGHT IN RAIN
SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE.  ITS MORE UNCERTAIN IF RAIN AND LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS REACH INTO FAR NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOWER CIGS MAY LINGER INTO FRI ALONG
THE COAST FOR AT LEAST A PART OF THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...REST OF THE
REGION SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR BY LATE MORNING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING WED IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
PRES GRADIENT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE LATE WED
NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT OVER THE RI COASTAL WATERS WED
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CUTOFF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL GENERATE A GOOD NORTHEAST
GRADIENT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.  NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF NEAR GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10
FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  IN ADDITION...RAIN WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES FOR MARINERS AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS WILL LIKELY
LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AS A RESULT OF LEFT OVER SWELL.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS FRIDAY NIGHT WEARS ON.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDING WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 231929
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
329 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN AND COOL
TEMPERATURES TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENG THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS SUGGEST GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL LIMIT COOLING POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. EXPECT MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH LOWER 50S BOS/PVD URBAN CENTERS...BUT
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COLD SPOTS IN THE UPPER CT
VALLEY AND INTERIOR E MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST OF NEW ENG WITH EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THE COLUMN IS STILL DRY SO EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES ALTHOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY...EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE E MA COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE NC COAST BUT HIGH PRES IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL BE SLOW TO BUDGE. DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS HANGS ON THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
RAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WED NIGHT. JUST A LOW PROB FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE S COAST BY DAYBREAK...BUT IT IS MORE
LIKELY THAT RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THU INTO FRI
  MORNING
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THEN HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING LOW PRES OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AND ITS POSSIBLE SHIFT TO THE N SOMETIME DURING THE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. QUESTION IS WHETHER E-W ORIENTED
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FAR ENOUGH N TO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLES TO INCORPORATE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...THOUGH
LEANED TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.

BEYOND THIS...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH MAIN STORM TRACK ACROSS HUDSON
BAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. NOTING A H5 SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW
DURING NEXT WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING POSSIBLY RETROGRADING TO THE
PLAINS STATES WHILE THE SHORT WAVE WORKS INTO THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND. HAVE NOTED THAT THE CPC NAO
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS POSITIVE NAO THAT STARTS TO TREND MORE
NEGATIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH...AROUND THE TIMEFRAME OF THIS
SHORT WAVE. H5 HEIGHTS MAY LOWER NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT TRYING TO SHIFT S OUT OF QUEBEC.

TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN TRENDED TOWARD THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

CONTINUE TO KEEP A WEARY EYE ON THE PERSISTENT LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS/GGEM REMAIN
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING GOOD SLUG OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS RUN...THE EC IS ALSO BRINGING
SOME PRECIP IN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT KEEPING HEAVIEST QPF TO
THE S. ALL MODELS KEEP THE LOW RATHER WEAK AND NEAR OR S OF 40N
LATITUDE. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A RATHER WEAK UPPER
FLOW IN PLACE WILL BE TOUGH TO BRING APPRECIABLE PRECIP INTO THE
REGION.

ANOTHER ASPECT TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
E TO NE WINDS WITH BROAD INVERTED TROUGH THAT MAY DEVELOP AS THE
LOW PASSES. FOR NOW...KEPT STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT COULD ALSO SHIFT N WITH THE PRECIP.

DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO N CT/RI/SE MA FOR NOW...BUT
AGAIN WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY...THOUGH COULD WARM TO THE LOWER-MID 70S
AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY DEPENDING UPON WHEN THE LOW PASSES
AND WINDS BACK TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE
SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE RECORD HIGHS
ON SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. MODELS TRY TO LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. DID HOLD TEMPS BACK
A BIT FOR NOW...MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ONLY QUESTION WILL BE ON MONDAY...AS MODELS TRY TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT OUT OF QUEBEC TOWARD THE REGION. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
THOUGH.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...

  SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR...BUT ISOLD FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. ANY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN S OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
WED NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. STILL A CHANCE A SEABREEZE WILL
DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAY SEE
TYPICAL BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCALES.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT INTO
THAT PORTION OF THE REGION WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING WED IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
PRES GRADIENT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE LATE WED
NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT OVER THE RI COASTAL WATERS WED
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES WILL PASS
S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE E TO NE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM E OF CAPE COD TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SWELLS MAY BUILD
UP TO 6-8 FT. THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR N THE LOW WILL PUSH
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS BACK TO N AND
DIMINISH. LEFTOVER SEAS OF AROUND 5 FT FRI NIGHT SHOULD SUBSIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 231746
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
146 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION MAY GRAZE SOUTH COASTAL AREAS WITH A LOW RISK FOR FEW
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED T/TD/WIND GRIDS FOR CURRENT OBS/TRENDS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST ON TRACK. SEABREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
BUT NOT YET ALONG THE EAST COAST. STILL A CHANCE A BRIEF SEABREEZE
COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. HIGH PRES IN CONTROL WILL BRING
SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPS. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WAS AN UPDATE TO THE WINDS TO INTRODUCE A SEABREEZE ALONG
THE COAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
HIRES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING. MAX TEMPS MOSTLY
65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. WENT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AS WELL AS THE LARGER URBAN
CENTERS.

WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...STILL EXPECTING EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SO LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO
PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THU INTO FRI
  MORNING
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THEN HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING LOW PRES OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AND ITS POSSIBLE SHIFT TO THE N SOMETIME DURING THE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. QUESTION IS WHETHER E-W ORIENTED
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FAR ENOUGH N TO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLES TO INCORPORATE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...THOUGH
LEANED TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.

BEYOND THIS...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH MAIN STORM TRACK ACROSS HUDSON
BAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. NOTING A H5 SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW
DURING NEXT WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING POSSIBLY RETROGRADING TO THE
PLAINS STATES WHILE THE SHORT WAVE WORKS INTO THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND. HAVE NOTED THAT THE CPC NAO
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS POSITIVE NAO THAT STARTS TO TREND MORE
NEGATIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH...AROUND THE TIMEFRAME OF THIS
SHORT WAVE. H5 HEIGHTS MAY LOWER NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT TRYING TO SHIFT S OUT OF QUEBEC.

TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN TRENDED TOWARD THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

E-W RIDGE AXIS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MA/NH/VT BORDER DURING THE
NIGHT WITH GENERAL E-SE WIND FLOW IN PLACE. QUESTION AT THIS POINT
WILL WHETHER MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK N FROM LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. MODELS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING
THIS FEATURE...THOUGH 00Z GFS/GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHING PRECIP IN...WHILE 00Z ECMWF HOLDS
PRECIP TO THE S. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION AND HOLDING
THE RIDGE IN. DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT THOUGH.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE
LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

CONTINUE TO KEEP A WEARY EYE ON THE PERSISTENT LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS/GGEM REMAIN
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING GOOD SLUG OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS RUN...THE EC IS ALSO BRINGING
SOME PRECIP IN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT KEEPING HEAVIEST QPF TO
THE S. ALL MODELS KEEP THE LOW RATHER WEAK AND NEAR OR S OF 40N
LATITUDE. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A RATHER WEAK UPPER
FLOW IN PLACE WILL BE TOUGH TO BRING APPRECIABLE PRECIP INTO THE
REGION.

ANOTHER ASPECT TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
E TO NE WINDS WITH BROAD INVERTED TROUGH THAT MAY DEVELOP AS THE
LOW PASSES. FOR NOW...KEPT STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT COULD ALSO SHIFT N WITH THE PRECIP.

DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO N CT/RI/SE MA FOR NOW...BUT
AGAIN WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY...THOUGH COULD WARM TO THE LOWER-MID 70S
AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY DEPENDING UPON WHEN THE LOW PASSES
AND WINDS BACK TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE
SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE RECORD HIGHS
ON SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. MODELS TRY TO LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. DID HOLD TEMPS BACK
A BIT FOR NOW...MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ONLY QUESTION WILL BE ON MONDAY...AS MODELS TRY TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT OUT OF QUEBEC TOWARD THE REGION. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
THOUGH.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...

  SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR...BUT ISOLD FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. ANY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN S OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
WED NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. STILL A CHANCE A SEABREEZE WILL
DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAY SEE
TYPICAL BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCALES.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT INTO
THAT PORTION OF THE REGION WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE
DISCONTINUED. RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
NOT CERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT...THOUGH MAY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE WED NIGHT ON SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES WILL PASS
S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE E TO NE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM E OF CAPE COD TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SWELLS MAY BUILD
UP TO 6-8 FT. THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR N THE LOW WILL PUSH
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS BACK TO N AND
DIMINISH. LEFTOVER SEAS OF AROUND 5 FT FRI NIGHT SHOULD SUBSIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 231746
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
146 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION MAY GRAZE SOUTH COASTAL AREAS WITH A LOW RISK FOR FEW
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED T/TD/WIND GRIDS FOR CURRENT OBS/TRENDS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST ON TRACK. SEABREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
BUT NOT YET ALONG THE EAST COAST. STILL A CHANCE A BRIEF SEABREEZE
COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. HIGH PRES IN CONTROL WILL BRING
SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPS. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WAS AN UPDATE TO THE WINDS TO INTRODUCE A SEABREEZE ALONG
THE COAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
HIRES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING. MAX TEMPS MOSTLY
65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. WENT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AS WELL AS THE LARGER URBAN
CENTERS.

WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...STILL EXPECTING EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SO LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO
PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THU INTO FRI
  MORNING
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THEN HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING LOW PRES OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AND ITS POSSIBLE SHIFT TO THE N SOMETIME DURING THE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. QUESTION IS WHETHER E-W ORIENTED
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FAR ENOUGH N TO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLES TO INCORPORATE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...THOUGH
LEANED TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.

BEYOND THIS...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH MAIN STORM TRACK ACROSS HUDSON
BAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. NOTING A H5 SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW
DURING NEXT WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING POSSIBLY RETROGRADING TO THE
PLAINS STATES WHILE THE SHORT WAVE WORKS INTO THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND. HAVE NOTED THAT THE CPC NAO
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS POSITIVE NAO THAT STARTS TO TREND MORE
NEGATIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH...AROUND THE TIMEFRAME OF THIS
SHORT WAVE. H5 HEIGHTS MAY LOWER NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT TRYING TO SHIFT S OUT OF QUEBEC.

TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN TRENDED TOWARD THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

E-W RIDGE AXIS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MA/NH/VT BORDER DURING THE
NIGHT WITH GENERAL E-SE WIND FLOW IN PLACE. QUESTION AT THIS POINT
WILL WHETHER MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK N FROM LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. MODELS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING
THIS FEATURE...THOUGH 00Z GFS/GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHING PRECIP IN...WHILE 00Z ECMWF HOLDS
PRECIP TO THE S. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION AND HOLDING
THE RIDGE IN. DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT THOUGH.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE
LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

CONTINUE TO KEEP A WEARY EYE ON THE PERSISTENT LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS/GGEM REMAIN
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING GOOD SLUG OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS RUN...THE EC IS ALSO BRINGING
SOME PRECIP IN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT KEEPING HEAVIEST QPF TO
THE S. ALL MODELS KEEP THE LOW RATHER WEAK AND NEAR OR S OF 40N
LATITUDE. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A RATHER WEAK UPPER
FLOW IN PLACE WILL BE TOUGH TO BRING APPRECIABLE PRECIP INTO THE
REGION.

ANOTHER ASPECT TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
E TO NE WINDS WITH BROAD INVERTED TROUGH THAT MAY DEVELOP AS THE
LOW PASSES. FOR NOW...KEPT STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT COULD ALSO SHIFT N WITH THE PRECIP.

DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO N CT/RI/SE MA FOR NOW...BUT
AGAIN WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY...THOUGH COULD WARM TO THE LOWER-MID 70S
AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY DEPENDING UPON WHEN THE LOW PASSES
AND WINDS BACK TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE
SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE RECORD HIGHS
ON SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. MODELS TRY TO LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. DID HOLD TEMPS BACK
A BIT FOR NOW...MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ONLY QUESTION WILL BE ON MONDAY...AS MODELS TRY TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT OUT OF QUEBEC TOWARD THE REGION. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
THOUGH.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...

  SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR...BUT ISOLD FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. ANY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN S OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
WED NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. STILL A CHANCE A SEABREEZE WILL
DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAY SEE
TYPICAL BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCALES.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT INTO
THAT PORTION OF THE REGION WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE
DISCONTINUED. RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
NOT CERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT...THOUGH MAY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE WED NIGHT ON SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES WILL PASS
S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE E TO NE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM E OF CAPE COD TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SWELLS MAY BUILD
UP TO 6-8 FT. THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR N THE LOW WILL PUSH
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS BACK TO N AND
DIMINISH. LEFTOVER SEAS OF AROUND 5 FT FRI NIGHT SHOULD SUBSIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 231724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 111 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE
UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE FCST AREA. A WEAK SFC COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
COOL AND DRY WX WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LESS WIND THAN
YESTERDAY. ALSO TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES WARMER. SOME
CLOUDS ARE PERSISTING OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION...BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE M60S TO
NEAR 70F IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

WED...SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING
IN DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU NT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH 00Z/23
GEFS INDICATING THE PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCH OR GREATER QPF/6
HOURS REACHING INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE OR HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO
INCREASE TOO MUCH IN CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TREND BACK SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE LOW/S TRACK AND PRECIP SHIELD. AT THE VERY
LEAST...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THURSDAY INTO EARLY THU NT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR WED-THU NT...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. EXPECT MINS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. THU MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPANDS
NORTH...AND IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE
GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV MOS/WARMER MET
MOS...WITH 65-70 EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE
RAINFALL...MAX TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S OR EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES AS
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA BUILDING IN. LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STEADY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
COULD SET UP THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE PREDICTED
POSITION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AROUND
70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S...SOME
UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING FROM THE NORTH IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU CLOUDS FOR KALB/KGFL.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS
FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KPSF/KPOU. WINDS ARE LIGHT AT
KPOU/KPSF...BUT WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY...ARE GUSTY
AROUND KALB/KGFL FROM VARIABLE DIRECTIONS. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
KTS FOR KALB/KGFL WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES.

BY THE EVENING HOURS...THE LOSS OF HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY CLOUDS
TO DISSIPATE AND WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT AT
KPSF/KGFL...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE. SOME
HIGH CIRRUS WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS
A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TREND TOWARD CALM LATE TONIGHT. ON WED...WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
45-60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH
WILL THEN RECOVER TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION AND SOME FOG EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 50-60
PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 231724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 111 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE
UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE FCST AREA. A WEAK SFC COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
COOL AND DRY WX WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LESS WIND THAN
YESTERDAY. ALSO TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES WARMER. SOME
CLOUDS ARE PERSISTING OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION...BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE M60S TO
NEAR 70F IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

WED...SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING
IN DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU NT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH 00Z/23
GEFS INDICATING THE PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCH OR GREATER QPF/6
HOURS REACHING INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE OR HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO
INCREASE TOO MUCH IN CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TREND BACK SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE LOW/S TRACK AND PRECIP SHIELD. AT THE VERY
LEAST...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THURSDAY INTO EARLY THU NT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR WED-THU NT...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. EXPECT MINS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. THU MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPANDS
NORTH...AND IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE
GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV MOS/WARMER MET
MOS...WITH 65-70 EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE
RAINFALL...MAX TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S OR EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES AS
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA BUILDING IN. LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STEADY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
COULD SET UP THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE PREDICTED
POSITION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AROUND
70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S...SOME
UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING FROM THE NORTH IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU CLOUDS FOR KALB/KGFL.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS
FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KPSF/KPOU. WINDS ARE LIGHT AT
KPOU/KPSF...BUT WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY...ARE GUSTY
AROUND KALB/KGFL FROM VARIABLE DIRECTIONS. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
KTS FOR KALB/KGFL WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES.

BY THE EVENING HOURS...THE LOSS OF HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY CLOUDS
TO DISSIPATE AND WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT AT
KPSF/KGFL...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE. SOME
HIGH CIRRUS WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS
A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TREND TOWARD CALM LATE TONIGHT. ON WED...WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
45-60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH
WILL THEN RECOVER TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION AND SOME FOG EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 50-60
PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231712
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
112 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 111 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE
UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE FCST AREA. A WEAK SFC COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
COOL AND DRY WX WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LESS WIND THAN
YESTERDAY. ALSO TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES WARMER. SOME
CLOUDS ARE PERSISTING OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION...BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE M60S TO
NEAR 70F IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

WED...SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING
IN DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU NT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH 00Z/23
GEFS INDICATING THE PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCH OR GREATER QPF/6
HOURS REACHING INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE OR HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO
INCREASE TOO MUCH IN CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TREND BACK SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE LOW/S TRACK AND PRECIP SHIELD. AT THE VERY
LEAST...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THURSDAY INTO EARLY THU NT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR WED-THU NT...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. EXPECT MINS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. THU MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPANDS
NORTH...AND IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE
GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV MOS/WARMER MET
MOS...WITH 65-70 EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE
RAINFALL...MAX TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S OR EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES AS
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA BUILDING IN. LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STEADY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
COULD SET UP THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE PREDICTED
POSITION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AROUND
70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S...SOME
UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. SOME BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR FOG THROUGH 13Z AT
KGFL...WITH A FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET WHILE ANY FOG LIFTS. THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TREND TOWARD CALM LATE TONIGHT. ON WED...WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
45-60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH
WILL THEN RECOVER TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION AND SOME FOG EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 50-60
PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231712
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
112 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 111 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE
UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE FCST AREA. A WEAK SFC COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
COOL AND DRY WX WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LESS WIND THAN
YESTERDAY. ALSO TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES WARMER. SOME
CLOUDS ARE PERSISTING OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION...BUT OVERALL
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE M60S TO
NEAR 70F IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND
MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

WED...SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING
IN DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU NT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH 00Z/23
GEFS INDICATING THE PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCH OR GREATER QPF/6
HOURS REACHING INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE OR HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO
INCREASE TOO MUCH IN CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TREND BACK SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE LOW/S TRACK AND PRECIP SHIELD. AT THE VERY
LEAST...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THURSDAY INTO EARLY THU NT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR WED-THU NT...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. EXPECT MINS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. THU MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPANDS
NORTH...AND IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE
GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV MOS/WARMER MET
MOS...WITH 65-70 EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE
RAINFALL...MAX TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S OR EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES AS
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA BUILDING IN. LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STEADY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
COULD SET UP THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE PREDICTED
POSITION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AROUND
70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S...SOME
UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. SOME BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR FOG THROUGH 13Z AT
KGFL...WITH A FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET WHILE ANY FOG LIFTS. THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TREND TOWARD CALM LATE TONIGHT. ON WED...WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
45-60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH
WILL THEN RECOVER TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION AND SOME FOG EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 50-60
PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KBOX 231402
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION MAY GRAZE SOUTH COASTAL AREAS WITH A LOW RISK FOR FEW
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. HIGH PRES IN CONTROL WILL BRING
SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPS. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WAS AN UPDATE TO THE WINDS TO INTRODUCE A SEABREEZE
ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIRES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING.
MAX TEMPS MOSTLY 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. WENT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AS WELL AS THE LARGER URBAN
CENTERS.

WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...STILL EXPECTING EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SO LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO
PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THU INTO FRI
  MORNING
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THEN HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING LOW PRES OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AND ITS POSSIBLE SHIFT TO THE N SOMETIME DURING THE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. QUESTION IS WHETHER E-W ORIENTED
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FAR ENOUGH N TO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLES TO INCORPORATE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...THOUGH
LEANED TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.

BEYOND THIS...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH MAIN STORM TRACK ACROSS HUDSON
BAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. NOTING A H5 SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW
DURING NEXT WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING POSSIBLY RETROGRADING TO THE
PLAINS STATES WHILE THE SHORT WAVE WORKS INTO THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND. HAVE NOTED THAT THE CPC NAO
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS POSITIVE NAO THAT STARTS TO TREND MORE
NEGATIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH...AROUND THE TIMEFRAME OF THIS
SHORT WAVE. H5 HEIGHTS MAY LOWER NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT TRYING TO SHIFT S OUT OF QUEBEC.

TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN TRENDED TOWARD THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

E-W RIDGE AXIS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MA/NH/VT BORDER DURING THE
NIGHT WITH GENERAL E-SE WIND FLOW IN PLACE. QUESTION AT THIS POINT
WILL WHETHER MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK N FROM LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. MODELS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING
THIS FEATURE...THOUGH 00Z GFS/GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHING PRECIP IN...WHILE 00Z ECMWF HOLDS
PRECIP TO THE S. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION AND HOLDING
THE RIDGE IN. DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT THOUGH.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE
LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

CONTINUE TO KEEP A WEARY EYE ON THE PERSISTENT LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS/GGEM REMAIN
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING GOOD SLUG OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS RUN...THE EC IS ALSO BRINGING
SOME PRECIP IN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT KEEPING HEAVIEST QPF TO
THE S. ALL MODELS KEEP THE LOW RATHER WEAK AND NEAR OR S OF 40N
LATITUDE. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A RATHER WEAK UPPER
FLOW IN PLACE WILL BE TOUGH TO BRING APPRECIABLE PRECIP INTO THE
REGION.

ANOTHER ASPECT TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
E TO NE WINDS WITH BROAD INVERTED TROUGH THAT MAY DEVELOP AS THE
LOW PASSES. FOR NOW...KEPT STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT COULD ALSO SHIFT N WITH THE PRECIP.

DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO N CT/RI/SE MA FOR NOW...BUT
AGAIN WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY...THOUGH COULD WARM TO THE LOWER-MID 70S
AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY DEPENDING UPON WHEN THE LOW PASSES
AND WINDS BACK TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE
SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE RECORD HIGHS
ON SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. MODELS TRY TO LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. DID HOLD TEMPS BACK
A BIT FOR NOW...MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ONLY QUESTION WILL BE ON MONDAY...AS MODELS TRY TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT OUT OF QUEBEC TOWARD THE REGION. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
THOUGH.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...

  SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. MODERATE PROBABILITY OF A SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WE THINK A SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAY SEE
TYPICAL BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCALES.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT INTO
THAT PORTION OF THE REGION WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE
DISCONTINUED. RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
NOT CERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT...THOUGH MAY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE WED NIGHT ON SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES WILL PASS
S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE E TO NE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM E OF CAPE COD TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SWELLS MAY BUILD
UP TO 6-8 FT. THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR N THE LOW WILL PUSH
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS BACK TO N AND
DIMINISH. LEFTOVER SEAS OF AROUND 5 FT FRI NIGHT SHOULD SUBSIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM..KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/BELK/EVT
MARINE...KJC/BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231402
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION MAY GRAZE SOUTH COASTAL AREAS WITH A LOW RISK FOR FEW
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. HIGH PRES IN CONTROL WILL BRING
SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPS. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WAS AN UPDATE TO THE WINDS TO INTRODUCE A SEABREEZE
ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIRES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING.
MAX TEMPS MOSTLY 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. WENT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AS WELL AS THE LARGER URBAN
CENTERS.

WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...STILL EXPECTING EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SO LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO
PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THU INTO FRI
  MORNING
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THEN HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING LOW PRES OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AND ITS POSSIBLE SHIFT TO THE N SOMETIME DURING THE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. QUESTION IS WHETHER E-W ORIENTED
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FAR ENOUGH N TO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLES TO INCORPORATE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...THOUGH
LEANED TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.

BEYOND THIS...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH MAIN STORM TRACK ACROSS HUDSON
BAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. NOTING A H5 SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW
DURING NEXT WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING POSSIBLY RETROGRADING TO THE
PLAINS STATES WHILE THE SHORT WAVE WORKS INTO THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND. HAVE NOTED THAT THE CPC NAO
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS POSITIVE NAO THAT STARTS TO TREND MORE
NEGATIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH...AROUND THE TIMEFRAME OF THIS
SHORT WAVE. H5 HEIGHTS MAY LOWER NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT TRYING TO SHIFT S OUT OF QUEBEC.

TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN TRENDED TOWARD THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

E-W RIDGE AXIS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MA/NH/VT BORDER DURING THE
NIGHT WITH GENERAL E-SE WIND FLOW IN PLACE. QUESTION AT THIS POINT
WILL WHETHER MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK N FROM LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. MODELS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING
THIS FEATURE...THOUGH 00Z GFS/GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHING PRECIP IN...WHILE 00Z ECMWF HOLDS
PRECIP TO THE S. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION AND HOLDING
THE RIDGE IN. DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT THOUGH.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE
LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

CONTINUE TO KEEP A WEARY EYE ON THE PERSISTENT LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS/GGEM REMAIN
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING GOOD SLUG OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS RUN...THE EC IS ALSO BRINGING
SOME PRECIP IN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT KEEPING HEAVIEST QPF TO
THE S. ALL MODELS KEEP THE LOW RATHER WEAK AND NEAR OR S OF 40N
LATITUDE. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A RATHER WEAK UPPER
FLOW IN PLACE WILL BE TOUGH TO BRING APPRECIABLE PRECIP INTO THE
REGION.

ANOTHER ASPECT TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
E TO NE WINDS WITH BROAD INVERTED TROUGH THAT MAY DEVELOP AS THE
LOW PASSES. FOR NOW...KEPT STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT COULD ALSO SHIFT N WITH THE PRECIP.

DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO N CT/RI/SE MA FOR NOW...BUT
AGAIN WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY...THOUGH COULD WARM TO THE LOWER-MID 70S
AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY DEPENDING UPON WHEN THE LOW PASSES
AND WINDS BACK TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE
SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE RECORD HIGHS
ON SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. MODELS TRY TO LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. DID HOLD TEMPS BACK
A BIT FOR NOW...MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ONLY QUESTION WILL BE ON MONDAY...AS MODELS TRY TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT OUT OF QUEBEC TOWARD THE REGION. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
THOUGH.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...

  SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. MODERATE PROBABILITY OF A SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WE THINK A SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAY SEE
TYPICAL BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCALES.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT INTO
THAT PORTION OF THE REGION WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE
DISCONTINUED. RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
NOT CERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT...THOUGH MAY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE WED NIGHT ON SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES WILL PASS
S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE E TO NE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM E OF CAPE COD TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SWELLS MAY BUILD
UP TO 6-8 FT. THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR N THE LOW WILL PUSH
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS BACK TO N AND
DIMINISH. LEFTOVER SEAS OF AROUND 5 FT FRI NIGHT SHOULD SUBSIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM..KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/BELK/EVT
MARINE...KJC/BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231402
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION MAY GRAZE SOUTH COASTAL AREAS WITH A LOW RISK FOR FEW
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. HIGH PRES IN CONTROL WILL BRING
SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPS. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WAS AN UPDATE TO THE WINDS TO INTRODUCE A SEABREEZE
ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIRES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING.
MAX TEMPS MOSTLY 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. WENT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AS WELL AS THE LARGER URBAN
CENTERS.

WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...STILL EXPECTING EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SO LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO
PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THU INTO FRI
  MORNING
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THEN HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING LOW PRES OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AND ITS POSSIBLE SHIFT TO THE N SOMETIME DURING THE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. QUESTION IS WHETHER E-W ORIENTED
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FAR ENOUGH N TO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLES TO INCORPORATE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...THOUGH
LEANED TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.

BEYOND THIS...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH MAIN STORM TRACK ACROSS HUDSON
BAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. NOTING A H5 SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW
DURING NEXT WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING POSSIBLY RETROGRADING TO THE
PLAINS STATES WHILE THE SHORT WAVE WORKS INTO THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND. HAVE NOTED THAT THE CPC NAO
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS POSITIVE NAO THAT STARTS TO TREND MORE
NEGATIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH...AROUND THE TIMEFRAME OF THIS
SHORT WAVE. H5 HEIGHTS MAY LOWER NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT TRYING TO SHIFT S OUT OF QUEBEC.

TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN TRENDED TOWARD THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

E-W RIDGE AXIS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MA/NH/VT BORDER DURING THE
NIGHT WITH GENERAL E-SE WIND FLOW IN PLACE. QUESTION AT THIS POINT
WILL WHETHER MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK N FROM LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. MODELS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING
THIS FEATURE...THOUGH 00Z GFS/GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHING PRECIP IN...WHILE 00Z ECMWF HOLDS
PRECIP TO THE S. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION AND HOLDING
THE RIDGE IN. DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT THOUGH.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE
LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

CONTINUE TO KEEP A WEARY EYE ON THE PERSISTENT LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS/GGEM REMAIN
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING GOOD SLUG OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS RUN...THE EC IS ALSO BRINGING
SOME PRECIP IN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT KEEPING HEAVIEST QPF TO
THE S. ALL MODELS KEEP THE LOW RATHER WEAK AND NEAR OR S OF 40N
LATITUDE. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A RATHER WEAK UPPER
FLOW IN PLACE WILL BE TOUGH TO BRING APPRECIABLE PRECIP INTO THE
REGION.

ANOTHER ASPECT TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
E TO NE WINDS WITH BROAD INVERTED TROUGH THAT MAY DEVELOP AS THE
LOW PASSES. FOR NOW...KEPT STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT COULD ALSO SHIFT N WITH THE PRECIP.

DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO N CT/RI/SE MA FOR NOW...BUT
AGAIN WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY...THOUGH COULD WARM TO THE LOWER-MID 70S
AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY DEPENDING UPON WHEN THE LOW PASSES
AND WINDS BACK TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE
SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE RECORD HIGHS
ON SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. MODELS TRY TO LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. DID HOLD TEMPS BACK
A BIT FOR NOW...MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ONLY QUESTION WILL BE ON MONDAY...AS MODELS TRY TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT OUT OF QUEBEC TOWARD THE REGION. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
THOUGH.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...

  SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. MODERATE PROBABILITY OF A SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WE THINK A SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAY SEE
TYPICAL BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCALES.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT INTO
THAT PORTION OF THE REGION WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE
DISCONTINUED. RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
NOT CERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT...THOUGH MAY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE WED NIGHT ON SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES WILL PASS
S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE E TO NE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM E OF CAPE COD TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SWELLS MAY BUILD
UP TO 6-8 FT. THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR N THE LOW WILL PUSH
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS BACK TO N AND
DIMINISH. LEFTOVER SEAS OF AROUND 5 FT FRI NIGHT SHOULD SUBSIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM..KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/BELK/EVT
MARINE...KJC/BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231402
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION MAY GRAZE SOUTH COASTAL AREAS WITH A LOW RISK FOR FEW
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. HIGH PRES IN CONTROL WILL BRING
SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPS. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WAS AN UPDATE TO THE WINDS TO INTRODUCE A SEABREEZE
ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIRES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING.
MAX TEMPS MOSTLY 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. WENT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AS WELL AS THE LARGER URBAN
CENTERS.

WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...STILL EXPECTING EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SO LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO
PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THU INTO FRI
  MORNING
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THEN HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING LOW PRES OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AND ITS POSSIBLE SHIFT TO THE N SOMETIME DURING THE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. QUESTION IS WHETHER E-W ORIENTED
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FAR ENOUGH N TO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLES TO INCORPORATE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...THOUGH
LEANED TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.

BEYOND THIS...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH MAIN STORM TRACK ACROSS HUDSON
BAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. NOTING A H5 SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW
DURING NEXT WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING POSSIBLY RETROGRADING TO THE
PLAINS STATES WHILE THE SHORT WAVE WORKS INTO THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND. HAVE NOTED THAT THE CPC NAO
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS POSITIVE NAO THAT STARTS TO TREND MORE
NEGATIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH...AROUND THE TIMEFRAME OF THIS
SHORT WAVE. H5 HEIGHTS MAY LOWER NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT TRYING TO SHIFT S OUT OF QUEBEC.

TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN TRENDED TOWARD THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

E-W RIDGE AXIS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MA/NH/VT BORDER DURING THE
NIGHT WITH GENERAL E-SE WIND FLOW IN PLACE. QUESTION AT THIS POINT
WILL WHETHER MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK N FROM LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. MODELS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING
THIS FEATURE...THOUGH 00Z GFS/GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHING PRECIP IN...WHILE 00Z ECMWF HOLDS
PRECIP TO THE S. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION AND HOLDING
THE RIDGE IN. DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT THOUGH.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE
LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

CONTINUE TO KEEP A WEARY EYE ON THE PERSISTENT LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS/GGEM REMAIN
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING GOOD SLUG OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS RUN...THE EC IS ALSO BRINGING
SOME PRECIP IN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT KEEPING HEAVIEST QPF TO
THE S. ALL MODELS KEEP THE LOW RATHER WEAK AND NEAR OR S OF 40N
LATITUDE. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A RATHER WEAK UPPER
FLOW IN PLACE WILL BE TOUGH TO BRING APPRECIABLE PRECIP INTO THE
REGION.

ANOTHER ASPECT TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
E TO NE WINDS WITH BROAD INVERTED TROUGH THAT MAY DEVELOP AS THE
LOW PASSES. FOR NOW...KEPT STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT COULD ALSO SHIFT N WITH THE PRECIP.

DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO N CT/RI/SE MA FOR NOW...BUT
AGAIN WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY...THOUGH COULD WARM TO THE LOWER-MID 70S
AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY DEPENDING UPON WHEN THE LOW PASSES
AND WINDS BACK TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE
SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE RECORD HIGHS
ON SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. MODELS TRY TO LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. DID HOLD TEMPS BACK
A BIT FOR NOW...MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ONLY QUESTION WILL BE ON MONDAY...AS MODELS TRY TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT OUT OF QUEBEC TOWARD THE REGION. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
THOUGH.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...

  SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. MODERATE PROBABILITY OF A SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WE THINK A SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAY SEE
TYPICAL BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCALES.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT INTO
THAT PORTION OF THE REGION WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE
DISCONTINUED. RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
NOT CERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT...THOUGH MAY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE WED NIGHT ON SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES WILL PASS
S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE E TO NE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM E OF CAPE COD TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SWELLS MAY BUILD
UP TO 6-8 FT. THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR N THE LOW WILL PUSH
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS BACK TO N AND
DIMINISH. LEFTOVER SEAS OF AROUND 5 FT FRI NIGHT SHOULD SUBSIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM..KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/BELK/EVT
MARINE...KJC/BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 231400
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
COMBINATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...HAS PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC AND NE ONTARIO. SOME OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND MAY EXPAND INTO THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS...IN CASE IT EXPANDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. ALSO...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION.

OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS
MAY BOOST TEMPS A BIT MORE THAN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

WED...SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING
IN DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU NT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH 00Z/23
GEFS INDICATING THE PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCH OR GREATER QPF/6
HOURS REACHING INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE OR HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO
INCREASE TOO MUCH IN CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TREND BACK SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE LOW/S TRACK AND PRECIP SHIELD. AT THE VERY
LEAST...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THURSDAY INTO EARLY THU NT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR WED-THU NT...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. EXPECT MINS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. THU MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPANDS
NORTH...AND IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE
GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV MOS/WARMER MET
MOS...WITH 65-70 EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE
RAINFALL...MAX TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S OR EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES AS
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA BUILDING IN. LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STEADY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
COULD SET UP THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE PREDICTED
POSITION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AROUND
70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S...SOME
UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. SOME BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR FOG THROUGH 13Z AT
KGFL...WITH A FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET WHILE ANY FOG LIFTS. THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TREND TOWARD CALM LATE TONIGHT. ON WED...WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
45-60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH
WILL THEN RECOVER TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION AND SOME FOG EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 50-60
PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231400
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
COMBINATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...HAS PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC AND NE ONTARIO. SOME OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND MAY EXPAND INTO THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS...IN CASE IT EXPANDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. ALSO...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION.

OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS
MAY BOOST TEMPS A BIT MORE THAN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

WED...SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING
IN DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU NT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH 00Z/23
GEFS INDICATING THE PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCH OR GREATER QPF/6
HOURS REACHING INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE OR HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO
INCREASE TOO MUCH IN CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TREND BACK SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE LOW/S TRACK AND PRECIP SHIELD. AT THE VERY
LEAST...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THURSDAY INTO EARLY THU NT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR WED-THU NT...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. EXPECT MINS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. THU MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPANDS
NORTH...AND IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE
GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV MOS/WARMER MET
MOS...WITH 65-70 EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE
RAINFALL...MAX TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S OR EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES AS
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA BUILDING IN. LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STEADY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
COULD SET UP THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE PREDICTED
POSITION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AROUND
70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S...SOME
UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. SOME BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR FOG THROUGH 13Z AT
KGFL...WITH A FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET WHILE ANY FOG LIFTS. THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TREND TOWARD CALM LATE TONIGHT. ON WED...WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
45-60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH
WILL THEN RECOVER TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION AND SOME FOG EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 50-60
PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231400
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
COMBINATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...HAS PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC AND NE ONTARIO. SOME OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND MAY EXPAND INTO THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS...IN CASE IT EXPANDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. ALSO...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION.

OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS
MAY BOOST TEMPS A BIT MORE THAN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

WED...SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING
IN DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU NT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH 00Z/23
GEFS INDICATING THE PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCH OR GREATER QPF/6
HOURS REACHING INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE OR HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO
INCREASE TOO MUCH IN CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TREND BACK SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE LOW/S TRACK AND PRECIP SHIELD. AT THE VERY
LEAST...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THURSDAY INTO EARLY THU NT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR WED-THU NT...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. EXPECT MINS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. THU MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPANDS
NORTH...AND IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE
GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV MOS/WARMER MET
MOS...WITH 65-70 EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE
RAINFALL...MAX TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S OR EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES AS
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA BUILDING IN. LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STEADY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
COULD SET UP THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE PREDICTED
POSITION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AROUND
70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S...SOME
UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. SOME BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR FOG THROUGH 13Z AT
KGFL...WITH A FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET WHILE ANY FOG LIFTS. THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TREND TOWARD CALM LATE TONIGHT. ON WED...WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
45-60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH
WILL THEN RECOVER TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION AND SOME FOG EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 50-60
PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231400
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
COMBINATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...HAS PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC AND NE ONTARIO. SOME OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND MAY EXPAND INTO THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS...IN CASE IT EXPANDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. ALSO...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION.

OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS
MAY BOOST TEMPS A BIT MORE THAN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

WED...SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING
IN DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU NT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH 00Z/23
GEFS INDICATING THE PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCH OR GREATER QPF/6
HOURS REACHING INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE OR HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO
INCREASE TOO MUCH IN CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TREND BACK SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE LOW/S TRACK AND PRECIP SHIELD. AT THE VERY
LEAST...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THURSDAY INTO EARLY THU NT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR WED-THU NT...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. EXPECT MINS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. THU MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPANDS
NORTH...AND IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE
GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV MOS/WARMER MET
MOS...WITH 65-70 EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE
RAINFALL...MAX TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S OR EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES AS
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA BUILDING IN. LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STEADY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
COULD SET UP THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE PREDICTED
POSITION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AROUND
70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S...SOME
UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. SOME BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR FOG THROUGH 13Z AT
KGFL...WITH A FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET WHILE ANY FOG LIFTS. THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TREND TOWARD CALM LATE TONIGHT. ON WED...WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
45-60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH
WILL THEN RECOVER TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION AND SOME FOG EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 50-60
PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBOX 231150
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
750 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION MAY GRAZE SOUTH COASTAL AREAS WITH A LOW RISK FOR FEW
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
735 AM UPDATE...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS WHICH HAS
LED TO SOME CHILLY TEMPS. NOTING SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S AT 11Z...MAINLY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS
INTERIOR E MA AND N CENTRAL/NW MA INTO SW NH. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...CENTERED ACROSS THE OH TO
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MEANS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT WEST WIND. SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP...ALONG
WITH BOTH CORES OF THE HI-RES NAM DO DECREASE WINDS WHERE A SEA
BREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT KEEP THE BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST. THE ONLY MODEL/GUIDANCE SOURCE WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY
DEVELOPED A SEA BREEZE IS THE HRRR.

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AM WARY ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING LATER IN
THE DAY...AM THINKING THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD IT OFFSHORE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. WENT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AS WELL AS THE LARGER URBAN
CENTERS.

WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...STILL EXPECTING EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SO LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO
PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THU INTO FRI
  MORNING
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THEN HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING LOW PRES OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AND ITS POSSIBLE SHIFT TO THE N SOMETIME DURING THE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. QUESTION IS WHETHER E-W ORIENTED
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FAR ENOUGH N TO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLES TO INCORPORATE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...THOUGH
LEANED TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.

BEYOND THIS...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH MAIN STORM TRACK ACROSS HUDSON
BAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. NOTING A H5 SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW
DURING NEXT WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING POSSIBLY RETROGRADING TO THE
PLAINS STATES WHILE THE SHORT WAVE WORKS INTO THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND. HAVE NOTED THAT THE CPC NAO
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS POSITIVE NAO THAT STARTS TO TREND MORE
NEGATIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH...AROUND THE TIMEFRAME OF THIS
SHORT WAVE. H5 HEIGHTS MAY LOWER NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT TRYING TO SHIFT S OUT OF QUEBEC.

TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN TRENDED TOWARD THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

E-W RIDGE AXIS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MA/NH/VT BORDER DURING THE
NIGHT WITH GENERAL E-SE WIND FLOW IN PLACE. QUESTION AT THIS POINT
WILL WHETHER MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK N FROM LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. MODELS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING
THIS FEATURE...THOUGH 00Z GFS/GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHING PRECIP IN...WHILE 00Z ECMWF HOLDS
PRECIP TO THE S. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION AND HOLDING
THE RIDGE IN. DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT THOUGH.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE
LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

CONTINUE TO KEEP A WEARY EYE ON THE PERSISTENT LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS/GGEM REMAIN
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING GOOD SLUG OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS RUN...THE EC IS ALSO BRINGING
SOME PRECIP IN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT KEEPING HEAVIEST QPF TO
THE S. ALL MODELS KEEP THE LOW RATHER WEAK AND NEAR OR S OF 40N
LATITUDE. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A RATHER WEAK UPPER
FLOW IN PLACE WILL BE TOUGH TO BRING APPRECIABLE PRECIP INTO THE
REGION.

ANOTHER ASPECT TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
E TO NE WINDS WITH BROAD INVERTED TROUGH THAT MAY DEVELOP AS THE
LOW PASSES. FOR NOW...KEPT STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT COULD ALSO SHIFT N WITH THE PRECIP.

DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO N CT/RI/SE MA FOR NOW...BUT
AGAIN WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY...THOUGH COULD WARM TO THE LOWER-MID 70S
AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY DEPENDING UPON WHEN THE LOW PASSES
AND WINDS BACK TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE
SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE RECORD HIGHS
ON SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. MODELS TRY TO LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. DID HOLD TEMPS BACK
A BIT FOR NOW...MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ONLY QUESTION WILL BE ON MONDAY...AS MODELS TRY TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT OUT OF QUEBEC TOWARD THE REGION. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
THOUGH.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...

  SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEA BREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAY SEE
TYPICAL BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCALES.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT INTO
THAT PORTION OF THE REGION WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TIMING OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THIS MORNING BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS.
RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT...THOUGH MAY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE WED NIGHT ON SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES WILL PASS
S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE E TO NE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM E OF CAPE COD TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SWELLS MAY BUILD
UP TO 6-8 FT. THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR N THE LOW WILL PUSH
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS BACK TO N AND
DIMINISH. LEFTOVER SEAS OF AROUND 5 FT FRI NIGHT SHOULD SUBSIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231150
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
750 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION MAY GRAZE SOUTH COASTAL AREAS WITH A LOW RISK FOR FEW
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
735 AM UPDATE...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS WHICH HAS
LED TO SOME CHILLY TEMPS. NOTING SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S AT 11Z...MAINLY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS
INTERIOR E MA AND N CENTRAL/NW MA INTO SW NH. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...CENTERED ACROSS THE OH TO
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MEANS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT WEST WIND. SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP...ALONG
WITH BOTH CORES OF THE HI-RES NAM DO DECREASE WINDS WHERE A SEA
BREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT KEEP THE BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST. THE ONLY MODEL/GUIDANCE SOURCE WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY
DEVELOPED A SEA BREEZE IS THE HRRR.

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AM WARY ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING LATER IN
THE DAY...AM THINKING THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD IT OFFSHORE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. WENT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AS WELL AS THE LARGER URBAN
CENTERS.

WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...STILL EXPECTING EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SO LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO
PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THU INTO FRI
  MORNING
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THEN HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING LOW PRES OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AND ITS POSSIBLE SHIFT TO THE N SOMETIME DURING THE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. QUESTION IS WHETHER E-W ORIENTED
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FAR ENOUGH N TO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLES TO INCORPORATE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...THOUGH
LEANED TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.

BEYOND THIS...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH MAIN STORM TRACK ACROSS HUDSON
BAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. NOTING A H5 SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW
DURING NEXT WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING POSSIBLY RETROGRADING TO THE
PLAINS STATES WHILE THE SHORT WAVE WORKS INTO THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND. HAVE NOTED THAT THE CPC NAO
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS POSITIVE NAO THAT STARTS TO TREND MORE
NEGATIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH...AROUND THE TIMEFRAME OF THIS
SHORT WAVE. H5 HEIGHTS MAY LOWER NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT TRYING TO SHIFT S OUT OF QUEBEC.

TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN TRENDED TOWARD THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

E-W RIDGE AXIS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MA/NH/VT BORDER DURING THE
NIGHT WITH GENERAL E-SE WIND FLOW IN PLACE. QUESTION AT THIS POINT
WILL WHETHER MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK N FROM LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. MODELS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING
THIS FEATURE...THOUGH 00Z GFS/GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHING PRECIP IN...WHILE 00Z ECMWF HOLDS
PRECIP TO THE S. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION AND HOLDING
THE RIDGE IN. DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT THOUGH.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE
LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

CONTINUE TO KEEP A WEARY EYE ON THE PERSISTENT LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS/GGEM REMAIN
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING GOOD SLUG OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS RUN...THE EC IS ALSO BRINGING
SOME PRECIP IN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT KEEPING HEAVIEST QPF TO
THE S. ALL MODELS KEEP THE LOW RATHER WEAK AND NEAR OR S OF 40N
LATITUDE. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A RATHER WEAK UPPER
FLOW IN PLACE WILL BE TOUGH TO BRING APPRECIABLE PRECIP INTO THE
REGION.

ANOTHER ASPECT TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
E TO NE WINDS WITH BROAD INVERTED TROUGH THAT MAY DEVELOP AS THE
LOW PASSES. FOR NOW...KEPT STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT COULD ALSO SHIFT N WITH THE PRECIP.

DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO N CT/RI/SE MA FOR NOW...BUT
AGAIN WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY...THOUGH COULD WARM TO THE LOWER-MID 70S
AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY DEPENDING UPON WHEN THE LOW PASSES
AND WINDS BACK TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE
SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE RECORD HIGHS
ON SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. MODELS TRY TO LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. DID HOLD TEMPS BACK
A BIT FOR NOW...MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ONLY QUESTION WILL BE ON MONDAY...AS MODELS TRY TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT OUT OF QUEBEC TOWARD THE REGION. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
THOUGH.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...

  SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEA BREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAY SEE
TYPICAL BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCALES.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT INTO
THAT PORTION OF THE REGION WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TIMING OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THIS MORNING BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS.
RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT...THOUGH MAY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE WED NIGHT ON SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES WILL PASS
S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE E TO NE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM E OF CAPE COD TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SWELLS MAY BUILD
UP TO 6-8 FT. THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR N THE LOW WILL PUSH
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS BACK TO N AND
DIMINISH. LEFTOVER SEAS OF AROUND 5 FT FRI NIGHT SHOULD SUBSIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KALY 231118
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...SKIES REMAIN
MAINLY CLEAR. WINDS HAVE BECOME NEARLY CALM...AND HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS COULD DROP
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE. SOME PATCHY FROST IS
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND
NW MA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
COMBINATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...HAS PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC AND NE ONTARIO. SOME OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY MID
MORNING...AND MAY EXPAND INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
VT...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY FOR AT LEAST A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS...IN CASE IT
EXPANDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALSO...CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION.

OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS
MAY BOOST TEMPS A BIT MORE THAN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

WED...SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING
IN DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU NT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH 00Z/23
GEFS INDICATING THE PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCH OR GREATER QPF/6
HOURS REACHING INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE OR HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO
INCREASE TOO MUCH IN CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TREND BACK SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE LOW/S TRACK AND PRECIP SHIELD. AT THE VERY
LEAST...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THURSDAY INTO EARLY THU NT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR WED-THU NT...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. EXPECT MINS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. THU MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPANDS
NORTH...AND IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE
GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV MOS/WARMER MET
MOS...WITH 65-70 EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE
RAINFALL...MAX TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S OR EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES AS
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA BUILDING IN. LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STEADY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
COULD SET UP THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE PREDICTED
POSITION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AROUND
70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S...SOME
UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. SOME BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR FOG THROUGH 13Z AT
KGFL...WITH A FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET WHILE ANY FOG LIFTS. THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TREND TOWARD CALM LATE TONIGHT. ON WED...WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
45-60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH
WILL THEN RECOVER TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION AND SOME FOG EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 50-60
PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 231118
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...SKIES REMAIN
MAINLY CLEAR. WINDS HAVE BECOME NEARLY CALM...AND HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS COULD DROP
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE. SOME PATCHY FROST IS
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND
NW MA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
COMBINATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...HAS PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC AND NE ONTARIO. SOME OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY MID
MORNING...AND MAY EXPAND INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
VT...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY FOR AT LEAST A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS...IN CASE IT
EXPANDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALSO...CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION.

OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS
MAY BOOST TEMPS A BIT MORE THAN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

WED...SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING
IN DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU NT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH 00Z/23
GEFS INDICATING THE PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCH OR GREATER QPF/6
HOURS REACHING INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE OR HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO
INCREASE TOO MUCH IN CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TREND BACK SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE LOW/S TRACK AND PRECIP SHIELD. AT THE VERY
LEAST...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THURSDAY INTO EARLY THU NT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR WED-THU NT...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. EXPECT MINS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. THU MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPANDS
NORTH...AND IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE
GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV MOS/WARMER MET
MOS...WITH 65-70 EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE
RAINFALL...MAX TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S OR EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES AS
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA BUILDING IN. LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STEADY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
COULD SET UP THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE PREDICTED
POSITION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AROUND
70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S...SOME
UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. SOME BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR FOG THROUGH 13Z AT
KGFL...WITH A FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET WHILE ANY FOG LIFTS. THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TREND TOWARD CALM LATE TONIGHT. ON WED...WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
45-60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH
WILL THEN RECOVER TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION AND SOME FOG EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 50-60
PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 231118
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...SKIES REMAIN
MAINLY CLEAR. WINDS HAVE BECOME NEARLY CALM...AND HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS COULD DROP
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE. SOME PATCHY FROST IS
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND
NW MA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
COMBINATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...HAS PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC AND NE ONTARIO. SOME OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY MID
MORNING...AND MAY EXPAND INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
VT...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY FOR AT LEAST A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS...IN CASE IT
EXPANDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALSO...CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION.

OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS
MAY BOOST TEMPS A BIT MORE THAN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

WED...SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING
IN DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU NT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH 00Z/23
GEFS INDICATING THE PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCH OR GREATER QPF/6
HOURS REACHING INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE OR HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO
INCREASE TOO MUCH IN CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TREND BACK SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE LOW/S TRACK AND PRECIP SHIELD. AT THE VERY
LEAST...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THURSDAY INTO EARLY THU NT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR WED-THU NT...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. EXPECT MINS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. THU MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPANDS
NORTH...AND IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE
GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV MOS/WARMER MET
MOS...WITH 65-70 EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE
RAINFALL...MAX TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S OR EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES AS
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA BUILDING IN. LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STEADY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
COULD SET UP THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE PREDICTED
POSITION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AROUND
70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S...SOME
UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. SOME BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR FOG THROUGH 13Z AT
KGFL...WITH A FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET WHILE ANY FOG LIFTS. THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TREND TOWARD CALM LATE TONIGHT. ON WED...WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
45-60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH
WILL THEN RECOVER TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION AND SOME FOG EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 50-60
PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 231118
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...SKIES REMAIN
MAINLY CLEAR. WINDS HAVE BECOME NEARLY CALM...AND HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS COULD DROP
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE. SOME PATCHY FROST IS
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND
NW MA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
COMBINATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...HAS PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC AND NE ONTARIO. SOME OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY MID
MORNING...AND MAY EXPAND INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
VT...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY FOR AT LEAST A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS...IN CASE IT
EXPANDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALSO...CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION.

OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS
MAY BOOST TEMPS A BIT MORE THAN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

WED...SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING
IN DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU NT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH 00Z/23
GEFS INDICATING THE PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCH OR GREATER QPF/6
HOURS REACHING INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE OR HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO
INCREASE TOO MUCH IN CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TREND BACK SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE LOW/S TRACK AND PRECIP SHIELD. AT THE VERY
LEAST...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THURSDAY INTO EARLY THU NT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR WED-THU NT...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. EXPECT MINS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. THU MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPANDS
NORTH...AND IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE
GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV MOS/WARMER MET
MOS...WITH 65-70 EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE
RAINFALL...MAX TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S OR EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES AS
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA BUILDING IN. LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STEADY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
COULD SET UP THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE PREDICTED
POSITION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AROUND
70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S...SOME
UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. SOME BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR FOG THROUGH 13Z AT
KGFL...WITH A FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET WHILE ANY FOG LIFTS. THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TREND TOWARD CALM LATE TONIGHT. ON WED...WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
45-60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH
WILL THEN RECOVER TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION AND SOME FOG EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 50-60
PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 231035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...SKIES REMAIN
MAINLY CLEAR. WINDS HAVE BECOME NEARLY CALM...AND HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS COULD DROP
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE. SOME PATCHY FROST IS
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND
NW MA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
COMBINATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...HAS PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC AND NE ONTARIO. SOME OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY MID
MORNING...AND MAY EXPAND INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
VT...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY FOR AT LEAST A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS...IN CASE IT
EXPANDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALSO...CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION.

OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS
MAY BOOST TEMPS A BIT MORE THAN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

WED...SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING
IN DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU NT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH 00Z/23
GEFS INDICATING THE PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCH OR GREATER QPF/6
HOURS REACHING INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE OR HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO
INCREASE TOO MUCH IN CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TREND BACK SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE LOW/S TRACK AND PRECIP SHIELD. AT THE VERY
LEAST...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THURSDAY INTO EARLY THU NT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR WED-THU NT...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. EXPECT MINS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. THU MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPANDS
NORTH...AND IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE
GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV MOS/WARMER MET
MOS...WITH 65-70 EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE
RAINFALL...MAX TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S OR EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES AS
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA BUILDING IN. LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STEADY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
COULD SET UP THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE PREDICTED
POSITION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AROUND
70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S...SOME
UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT KALB AND KPSF EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
EXIT. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO DEW POINTS...
ALONG WITH SOME STEAM FOG OFF RIVERS AND SWAMPS COULD BRING SOME
INTERVALS OF MVFR FOG TO KALB...KPSF AND KGFL BETWEEN 08Z-12Z...
MAYBE NOT BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE A TEMPO. OTHERWISE...
AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TREND TOWARD CALM LATE TONIGHT. ON WED...WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
45-60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH
WILL THEN RECOVER TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION AND SOME FOG EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 50-60
PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...SKIES REMAIN
MAINLY CLEAR. WINDS HAVE BECOME NEARLY CALM...AND HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS COULD DROP
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE. SOME PATCHY FROST IS
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND
NW MA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
COMBINATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...HAS PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC AND NE ONTARIO. SOME OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY MID
MORNING...AND MAY EXPAND INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
VT...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY FOR AT LEAST A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS...IN CASE IT
EXPANDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALSO...CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION.

OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS
MAY BOOST TEMPS A BIT MORE THAN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

WED...SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING
IN DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU NT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH 00Z/23
GEFS INDICATING THE PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCH OR GREATER QPF/6
HOURS REACHING INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE OR HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO
INCREASE TOO MUCH IN CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TREND BACK SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE LOW/S TRACK AND PRECIP SHIELD. AT THE VERY
LEAST...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THURSDAY INTO EARLY THU NT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR WED-THU NT...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. EXPECT MINS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. THU MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPANDS
NORTH...AND IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE
GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV MOS/WARMER MET
MOS...WITH 65-70 EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE
RAINFALL...MAX TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S OR EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES AS
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA BUILDING IN. LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STEADY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
COULD SET UP THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE PREDICTED
POSITION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AROUND
70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S...SOME
UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT KALB AND KPSF EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
EXIT. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO DEW POINTS...
ALONG WITH SOME STEAM FOG OFF RIVERS AND SWAMPS COULD BRING SOME
INTERVALS OF MVFR FOG TO KALB...KPSF AND KGFL BETWEEN 08Z-12Z...
MAYBE NOT BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE A TEMPO. OTHERWISE...
AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TREND TOWARD CALM LATE TONIGHT. ON WED...WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
45-60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH
WILL THEN RECOVER TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION AND SOME FOG EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 50-60
PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KBOX 230901
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
501 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION MAY GRAZE SOUTH COASTAL AREAS WITH A LOW RISK FOR FEW
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY EARLY. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR DID NOT
ARRIVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PERMIT WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST. THERE
WERE A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHWEST MA WHICH ARE CLOSE
TO THE FROST FORMATION TEMPERATURES ALREADY THIS MORNING. SO WE
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME FROST THIS MORNING.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MEANS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT WEST WIND. SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP...ALONG
WITH BOTH CORES OF THE HI-RES NAM DO DECREASE WINDS WHERE A
SEABREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT KEEP THE BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE ONLY MODEL/GUIDANCE SOURCE WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY
DEVELOPED A SEABREEZE IS THE HRRR.

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AM WARY ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPING. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY...AM THINKING THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD IT OFFSHORE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. WENT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AS WELL AS THE LARGER URBAN
CENTERS.

WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...STILL EXPECTING EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SO LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO
PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THU INTO FRI
  MORNING
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THEN HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING LOW PRES OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AND ITS POSSIBLE SHIFT TO THE N SOMETIME DURING THE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. QUESTION IS WHETHER E-W ORIENTED
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FAR ENOUGH N TO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLES TO INCORPORATE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...THOUGH
LEANED TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.

BEYOND THIS...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH MAIN STORM TRACK ACROSS HUDSON
BAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. NOTING A H5 SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW
DURING NEXT WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING POSSIBLY RETROGRADING TO THE
PLAINS STATES WHILE THE SHORT WAVE WORKS INTO THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND. HAVE NOTED THAT THE CPC NAO
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS POSITIVE NAO THAT STARTS TO TREND MORE
NEGATIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH...AROUND THE TIMEFRAME OF THIS
SHORT WAVE. H5 HEIGHTS MAY LOWER NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT TRYING TO SHIFT S OUT OF QUEBEC.

TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN TRENDED TOWARD THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

E-W RIDGE AXIS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MA/NH/VT BORDER DURING THE
NIGHT WITH GENERAL E-SE WIND FLOW IN PLACE. QUESTION AT THIS POINT
WILL WHETHER MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK N FROM LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. MODELS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING
THIS FEATURE...THOUGH 00Z GFS/GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHING PRECIP IN...WHILE 00Z ECMWF HOLDS
PRECIP TO THE S. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION AND HOLDING
THE RIDGE IN. DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT THOUGH.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE
LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

CONTINUE TO KEEP A WEARY EYE ON THE PERSISTENT LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS/GGEM REMAIN
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING GOOD SLUG OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS RUN...THE EC IS ALSO BRINGING
SOME PRECIP IN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT KEEPING HEAVIEST QPF TO
THE S. ALL MODELS KEEP THE LOW RATHER WEAK AND NEAR OR S OF 40N
LATITUDE. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A RATHER WEAK UPPER
FLOW IN PLACE WILL BE TOUGH TO BRING APPRECIABLE PRECIP INTO THE
REGION.

ANOTHER ASPECT TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
E TO NE WINDS WITH BROAD INVERTED TROUGH THAT MAY DEVELOP AS THE
LOW PASSES. FOR NOW...KEPT STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT COULD ALSO SHIFT N WITH THE PRECIP.

DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO N CT/RI/SE MA FOR NOW...BUT
AGAIN WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY...THOUGH COULD WARM TO THE LOWER-MID 70S
AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY DEPENDING UPON WHEN THE LOW PASSES
AND WINDS BACK TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE
SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE RECORD HIGHS
ON SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. MODELS TRY TO LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. DID HOLD TEMPS BACK
A BIT FOR NOW...MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ONLY QUESTION WILL BE ON MONDAY...AS MODELS TRY TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT OUT OF QUEBEC TOWARD THE REGION. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
THOUGH.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...

  SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAY SEE
TYPICAL BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCALES.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT INTO
THAT PORTION OF THE REGION WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TIMING OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THIS MORNING BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS.
RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT...THOUGH MAY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE WED NIGHT ON SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES WILL PASS
S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE E TO NE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM E OF CAPE COD TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SWELLS MAY BUILD
UP TO 6-8 FT. THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR N THE LOW WILL PUSH
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS BACK TO N AND
DIMINISH. LEFTOVER SEAS OF AROUND 5 FT FRI NIGHT SHOULD SUBSIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230901
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
501 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION MAY GRAZE SOUTH COASTAL AREAS WITH A LOW RISK FOR FEW
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY EARLY. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR DID NOT
ARRIVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PERMIT WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST. THERE
WERE A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHWEST MA WHICH ARE CLOSE
TO THE FROST FORMATION TEMPERATURES ALREADY THIS MORNING. SO WE
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME FROST THIS MORNING.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MEANS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT WEST WIND. SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP...ALONG
WITH BOTH CORES OF THE HI-RES NAM DO DECREASE WINDS WHERE A
SEABREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT KEEP THE BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE ONLY MODEL/GUIDANCE SOURCE WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY
DEVELOPED A SEABREEZE IS THE HRRR.

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AM WARY ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPING. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY...AM THINKING THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD IT OFFSHORE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. WENT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AS WELL AS THE LARGER URBAN
CENTERS.

WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...STILL EXPECTING EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SO LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO
PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THU INTO FRI
  MORNING
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THEN HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING LOW PRES OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AND ITS POSSIBLE SHIFT TO THE N SOMETIME DURING THE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. QUESTION IS WHETHER E-W ORIENTED
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FAR ENOUGH N TO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLES TO INCORPORATE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...THOUGH
LEANED TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.

BEYOND THIS...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH MAIN STORM TRACK ACROSS HUDSON
BAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. NOTING A H5 SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW
DURING NEXT WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING POSSIBLY RETROGRADING TO THE
PLAINS STATES WHILE THE SHORT WAVE WORKS INTO THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND. HAVE NOTED THAT THE CPC NAO
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS POSITIVE NAO THAT STARTS TO TREND MORE
NEGATIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH...AROUND THE TIMEFRAME OF THIS
SHORT WAVE. H5 HEIGHTS MAY LOWER NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT TRYING TO SHIFT S OUT OF QUEBEC.

TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN TRENDED TOWARD THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

E-W RIDGE AXIS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MA/NH/VT BORDER DURING THE
NIGHT WITH GENERAL E-SE WIND FLOW IN PLACE. QUESTION AT THIS POINT
WILL WHETHER MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK N FROM LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. MODELS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING
THIS FEATURE...THOUGH 00Z GFS/GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHING PRECIP IN...WHILE 00Z ECMWF HOLDS
PRECIP TO THE S. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION AND HOLDING
THE RIDGE IN. DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT THOUGH.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE
LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

CONTINUE TO KEEP A WEARY EYE ON THE PERSISTENT LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS/GGEM REMAIN
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING GOOD SLUG OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS RUN...THE EC IS ALSO BRINGING
SOME PRECIP IN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT KEEPING HEAVIEST QPF TO
THE S. ALL MODELS KEEP THE LOW RATHER WEAK AND NEAR OR S OF 40N
LATITUDE. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A RATHER WEAK UPPER
FLOW IN PLACE WILL BE TOUGH TO BRING APPRECIABLE PRECIP INTO THE
REGION.

ANOTHER ASPECT TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
E TO NE WINDS WITH BROAD INVERTED TROUGH THAT MAY DEVELOP AS THE
LOW PASSES. FOR NOW...KEPT STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT COULD ALSO SHIFT N WITH THE PRECIP.

DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO N CT/RI/SE MA FOR NOW...BUT
AGAIN WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY...THOUGH COULD WARM TO THE LOWER-MID 70S
AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY DEPENDING UPON WHEN THE LOW PASSES
AND WINDS BACK TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE
SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE RECORD HIGHS
ON SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. MODELS TRY TO LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. DID HOLD TEMPS BACK
A BIT FOR NOW...MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ONLY QUESTION WILL BE ON MONDAY...AS MODELS TRY TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT OUT OF QUEBEC TOWARD THE REGION. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
THOUGH.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...

  SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAY SEE
TYPICAL BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCALES.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT INTO
THAT PORTION OF THE REGION WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TIMING OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THIS MORNING BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS.
RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT...THOUGH MAY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE WED NIGHT ON SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES WILL PASS
S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE E TO NE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM E OF CAPE COD TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SWELLS MAY BUILD
UP TO 6-8 FT. THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR N THE LOW WILL PUSH
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS BACK TO N AND
DIMINISH. LEFTOVER SEAS OF AROUND 5 FT FRI NIGHT SHOULD SUBSIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230901
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
501 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION MAY GRAZE SOUTH COASTAL AREAS WITH A LOW RISK FOR FEW
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY EARLY. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR DID NOT
ARRIVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PERMIT WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST. THERE
WERE A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHWEST MA WHICH ARE CLOSE
TO THE FROST FORMATION TEMPERATURES ALREADY THIS MORNING. SO WE
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME FROST THIS MORNING.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MEANS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT WEST WIND. SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP...ALONG
WITH BOTH CORES OF THE HI-RES NAM DO DECREASE WINDS WHERE A
SEABREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT KEEP THE BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE ONLY MODEL/GUIDANCE SOURCE WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY
DEVELOPED A SEABREEZE IS THE HRRR.

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AM WARY ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPING. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY...AM THINKING THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD IT OFFSHORE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. WENT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AS WELL AS THE LARGER URBAN
CENTERS.

WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...STILL EXPECTING EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SO LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO
PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THU INTO FRI
  MORNING
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THEN HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING LOW PRES OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AND ITS POSSIBLE SHIFT TO THE N SOMETIME DURING THE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. QUESTION IS WHETHER E-W ORIENTED
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FAR ENOUGH N TO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLES TO INCORPORATE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...THOUGH
LEANED TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.

BEYOND THIS...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH MAIN STORM TRACK ACROSS HUDSON
BAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. NOTING A H5 SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW
DURING NEXT WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING POSSIBLY RETROGRADING TO THE
PLAINS STATES WHILE THE SHORT WAVE WORKS INTO THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND. HAVE NOTED THAT THE CPC NAO
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS POSITIVE NAO THAT STARTS TO TREND MORE
NEGATIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH...AROUND THE TIMEFRAME OF THIS
SHORT WAVE. H5 HEIGHTS MAY LOWER NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT TRYING TO SHIFT S OUT OF QUEBEC.

TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN TRENDED TOWARD THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

E-W RIDGE AXIS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MA/NH/VT BORDER DURING THE
NIGHT WITH GENERAL E-SE WIND FLOW IN PLACE. QUESTION AT THIS POINT
WILL WHETHER MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK N FROM LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. MODELS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING
THIS FEATURE...THOUGH 00Z GFS/GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHING PRECIP IN...WHILE 00Z ECMWF HOLDS
PRECIP TO THE S. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION AND HOLDING
THE RIDGE IN. DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT THOUGH.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE
LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

CONTINUE TO KEEP A WEARY EYE ON THE PERSISTENT LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS/GGEM REMAIN
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING GOOD SLUG OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS RUN...THE EC IS ALSO BRINGING
SOME PRECIP IN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT KEEPING HEAVIEST QPF TO
THE S. ALL MODELS KEEP THE LOW RATHER WEAK AND NEAR OR S OF 40N
LATITUDE. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A RATHER WEAK UPPER
FLOW IN PLACE WILL BE TOUGH TO BRING APPRECIABLE PRECIP INTO THE
REGION.

ANOTHER ASPECT TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
E TO NE WINDS WITH BROAD INVERTED TROUGH THAT MAY DEVELOP AS THE
LOW PASSES. FOR NOW...KEPT STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT COULD ALSO SHIFT N WITH THE PRECIP.

DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO N CT/RI/SE MA FOR NOW...BUT
AGAIN WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY...THOUGH COULD WARM TO THE LOWER-MID 70S
AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY DEPENDING UPON WHEN THE LOW PASSES
AND WINDS BACK TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE
SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE RECORD HIGHS
ON SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. MODELS TRY TO LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. DID HOLD TEMPS BACK
A BIT FOR NOW...MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ONLY QUESTION WILL BE ON MONDAY...AS MODELS TRY TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT OUT OF QUEBEC TOWARD THE REGION. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
THOUGH.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...

  SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAY SEE
TYPICAL BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCALES.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT INTO
THAT PORTION OF THE REGION WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TIMING OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THIS MORNING BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS.
RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT...THOUGH MAY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE WED NIGHT ON SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES WILL PASS
S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE E TO NE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM E OF CAPE COD TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SWELLS MAY BUILD
UP TO 6-8 FT. THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR N THE LOW WILL PUSH
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS BACK TO N AND
DIMINISH. LEFTOVER SEAS OF AROUND 5 FT FRI NIGHT SHOULD SUBSIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230901
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
501 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION MAY GRAZE SOUTH COASTAL AREAS WITH A LOW RISK FOR FEW
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY EARLY. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR DID NOT
ARRIVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PERMIT WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST. THERE
WERE A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHWEST MA WHICH ARE CLOSE
TO THE FROST FORMATION TEMPERATURES ALREADY THIS MORNING. SO WE
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME FROST THIS MORNING.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MEANS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT WEST WIND. SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP...ALONG
WITH BOTH CORES OF THE HI-RES NAM DO DECREASE WINDS WHERE A
SEABREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT KEEP THE BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE ONLY MODEL/GUIDANCE SOURCE WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY
DEVELOPED A SEABREEZE IS THE HRRR.

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AM WARY ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPING. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY...AM THINKING THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD IT OFFSHORE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. WENT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AS WELL AS THE LARGER URBAN
CENTERS.

WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...STILL EXPECTING EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SO LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO
PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST THU INTO FRI
  MORNING
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THEN HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING LOW PRES OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST AND ITS POSSIBLE SHIFT TO THE N SOMETIME DURING THE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. QUESTION IS WHETHER E-W ORIENTED
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FAR ENOUGH N TO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLES TO INCORPORATE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...THOUGH
LEANED TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.

BEYOND THIS...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH MAIN STORM TRACK ACROSS HUDSON
BAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. NOTING A H5 SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW
DURING NEXT WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING POSSIBLY RETROGRADING TO THE
PLAINS STATES WHILE THE SHORT WAVE WORKS INTO THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND. HAVE NOTED THAT THE CPC NAO
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS POSITIVE NAO THAT STARTS TO TREND MORE
NEGATIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH...AROUND THE TIMEFRAME OF THIS
SHORT WAVE. H5 HEIGHTS MAY LOWER NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT TRYING TO SHIFT S OUT OF QUEBEC.

TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN TRENDED TOWARD THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

E-W RIDGE AXIS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MA/NH/VT BORDER DURING THE
NIGHT WITH GENERAL E-SE WIND FLOW IN PLACE. QUESTION AT THIS POINT
WILL WHETHER MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK N FROM LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. MODELS HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING
THIS FEATURE...THOUGH 00Z GFS/GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING
DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSHING PRECIP IN...WHILE 00Z ECMWF HOLDS
PRECIP TO THE S. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION AND HOLDING
THE RIDGE IN. DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT THOUGH.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE
LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

CONTINUE TO KEEP A WEARY EYE ON THE PERSISTENT LOW PRES NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS/GGEM REMAIN
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING GOOD SLUG OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS RUN...THE EC IS ALSO BRINGING
SOME PRECIP IN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT KEEPING HEAVIEST QPF TO
THE S. ALL MODELS KEEP THE LOW RATHER WEAK AND NEAR OR S OF 40N
LATITUDE. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A RATHER WEAK UPPER
FLOW IN PLACE WILL BE TOUGH TO BRING APPRECIABLE PRECIP INTO THE
REGION.

ANOTHER ASPECT TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
E TO NE WINDS WITH BROAD INVERTED TROUGH THAT MAY DEVELOP AS THE
LOW PASSES. FOR NOW...KEPT STRONGEST WINDS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT COULD ALSO SHIFT N WITH THE PRECIP.

DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO N CT/RI/SE MA FOR NOW...BUT
AGAIN WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY...THOUGH COULD WARM TO THE LOWER-MID 70S
AWAY FROM THE COAST ON FRIDAY DEPENDING UPON WHEN THE LOW PASSES
AND WINDS BACK TO A LIGHT NORTHERLY DIRECTION. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE
SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE RECORD HIGHS
ON SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. MODELS TRY TO LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE REGION DURING MONDAY ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. DID HOLD TEMPS BACK
A BIT FOR NOW...MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ONLY QUESTION WILL BE ON MONDAY...AS MODELS TRY TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT OUT OF QUEBEC TOWARD THE REGION. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
THOUGH.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY...

  SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAY SEE
TYPICAL BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCALES.

THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT INTO
THAT PORTION OF THE REGION WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TIMING OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THIS MORNING BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS.
RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT...THOUGH MAY BEGIN TO BUILD LATE WED NIGHT ON SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES WILL PASS
S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE E TO NE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS FROM E OF CAPE COD TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SWELLS MAY BUILD
UP TO 6-8 FT. THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR N THE LOW WILL PUSH
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS BACK TO N AND
DIMINISH. LEFTOVER SEAS OF AROUND 5 FT FRI NIGHT SHOULD SUBSIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230847
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
447 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY EARLY. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR DID NOT
ARRIVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PERMIT WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST. THERE
WERE A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHWEST MA WHICH ARE CLOSE
TO THE FROST FORMATION TEMPERATURES ALREADY THIS MORNING. SO WE
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME FROST THIS MORNING.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MEANS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT WEST WIND. SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP...ALONG
WITH BOTH CORES OF THE HI-RES NAM DO DECREASE WINDS WHERE A
SEABREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT KEEP THE BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE ONLY MODEL/GUIDANCE SOURCE WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY
DEVELOPED A SEABREEZE IS THE HRRR.

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AM WARY ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPING. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY...AM THINKING THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD IT OFFSHORE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. WENT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AS WELL AS THE LARGER URBAN
CENTERS.

WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...STILL EXPECTING EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SO LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO
PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS THU
* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE VERY
DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER
THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

 SAT 9/27...SUN 9/28...MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TIMING OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THIS MORNING BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS.
RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
OR SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ENOUGH SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS WED NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT/THU IF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 230847
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
447 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY EARLY. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR DID NOT
ARRIVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PERMIT WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST. THERE
WERE A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHWEST MA WHICH ARE CLOSE
TO THE FROST FORMATION TEMPERATURES ALREADY THIS MORNING. SO WE
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME FROST THIS MORNING.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MEANS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT WEST WIND. SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP...ALONG
WITH BOTH CORES OF THE HI-RES NAM DO DECREASE WINDS WHERE A
SEABREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT KEEP THE BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE ONLY MODEL/GUIDANCE SOURCE WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY
DEVELOPED A SEABREEZE IS THE HRRR.

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AM WARY ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPING. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY...AM THINKING THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD IT OFFSHORE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. WENT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AS WELL AS THE LARGER URBAN
CENTERS.

WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...STILL EXPECTING EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SO LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO
PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS THU
* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE VERY
DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER
THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

 SAT 9/27...SUN 9/28...MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TIMING OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THIS MORNING BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS.
RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
OR SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ENOUGH SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS WED NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT/THU IF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 230847
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
447 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY EARLY. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR DID NOT
ARRIVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PERMIT WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST. THERE
WERE A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHWEST MA WHICH ARE CLOSE
TO THE FROST FORMATION TEMPERATURES ALREADY THIS MORNING. SO WE
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME FROST THIS MORNING.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MEANS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT WEST WIND. SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP...ALONG
WITH BOTH CORES OF THE HI-RES NAM DO DECREASE WINDS WHERE A
SEABREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT KEEP THE BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE ONLY MODEL/GUIDANCE SOURCE WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY
DEVELOPED A SEABREEZE IS THE HRRR.

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AM WARY ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPING. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY...AM THINKING THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD IT OFFSHORE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. WENT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AS WELL AS THE LARGER URBAN
CENTERS.

WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...STILL EXPECTING EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SO LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO
PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS THU
* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE VERY
DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER
THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

 SAT 9/27...SUN 9/28...MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TIMING OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THIS MORNING BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS.
RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
OR SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ENOUGH SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS WED NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT/THU IF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 230847
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
447 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY EARLY. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR DID NOT
ARRIVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PERMIT WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST. THERE
WERE A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHWEST MA WHICH ARE CLOSE
TO THE FROST FORMATION TEMPERATURES ALREADY THIS MORNING. SO WE
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME FROST THIS MORNING.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MEANS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT WEST WIND. SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP...ALONG
WITH BOTH CORES OF THE HI-RES NAM DO DECREASE WINDS WHERE A
SEABREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT KEEP THE BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE ONLY MODEL/GUIDANCE SOURCE WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY
DEVELOPED A SEABREEZE IS THE HRRR.

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AM WARY ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPING. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY...AM THINKING THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD IT OFFSHORE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. WENT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AS WELL AS THE LARGER URBAN
CENTERS.

WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...STILL EXPECTING EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SO LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO
PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS THU
* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE VERY
DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER
THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

 SAT 9/27...SUN 9/28...MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TIMING OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THIS MORNING BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS.
RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
OR SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ENOUGH SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS WED NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT/THU IF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KALY 230846
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...SKIES REMAIN
MAINLY CLEAR. WINDS HAVE BECOME NEARLY CALM...AND HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WE EXPECT TEMPS TO
DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE. SOME PATCHY
FROST IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND
NW MA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
COMBINATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...HAS PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC AND NE ONTARIO. SOME OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY MID
MORNING...AND MAY EXPAND INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
VT...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY FOR AT LEAST A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS...IN CASE IT
EXPANDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALSO...CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION.

OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS
MAY BOOST TEMPS A BIT MORE THAN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

WED...SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING
IN DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU NT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH 00Z/23
GEFS INDICATING THE PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCH OR GREATER QPF/6
HOURS REACHING INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE OR HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO
INCREASE TOO MUCH IN CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TREND BACK SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE LOW/S TRACK AND PRECIP SHIELD. AT THE VERY
LEAST...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THURSDAY INTO EARLY THU NT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR WED-THU NT...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. EXPECT MINS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. THU MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPANDS
NORTH...AND IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE
GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV MOS/WARMER MET
MOS...WITH 65-70 EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE
RAINFALL...MAX TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S OR EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES AS
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA BUILDING IN. LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STEADY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
COULD SET UP THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE PREDICTED
POSITION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AROUND
70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S...SOME
UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT KALB AND KPSF EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
EXIT. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO DEW POINTS...
ALONG WITH SOME STEAM FOG OFF RIVERS AND SWAMPS COULD BRING SOME
INTERVALS OF MVFR FOG TO KALB...KPSF AND KGFL BETWEEN 08Z-12Z...
MAYBE NOT BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE A TEMPO. OTHERWISE...
AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TREND TOWARD CALM LATE TONIGHT. ON WED...WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
45-60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH
WILL THEN RECOVER TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION AND SOME FOG EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 50-60
PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 230846
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...SKIES REMAIN
MAINLY CLEAR. WINDS HAVE BECOME NEARLY CALM...AND HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WE EXPECT TEMPS TO
DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE. SOME PATCHY
FROST IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND
NW MA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
COMBINATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...HAS PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC AND NE ONTARIO. SOME OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY MID
MORNING...AND MAY EXPAND INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
VT...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY FOR AT LEAST A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS...IN CASE IT
EXPANDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALSO...CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION.

OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS
MAY BOOST TEMPS A BIT MORE THAN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

WED...SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING
IN DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU NT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH 00Z/23
GEFS INDICATING THE PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCH OR GREATER QPF/6
HOURS REACHING INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE OR HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO
INCREASE TOO MUCH IN CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TREND BACK SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE LOW/S TRACK AND PRECIP SHIELD. AT THE VERY
LEAST...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THURSDAY INTO EARLY THU NT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR WED-THU NT...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. EXPECT MINS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. THU MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPANDS
NORTH...AND IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE
GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV MOS/WARMER MET
MOS...WITH 65-70 EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE
RAINFALL...MAX TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S OR EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES AS
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA BUILDING IN. LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STEADY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
COULD SET UP THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE PREDICTED
POSITION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AROUND
70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S...SOME
UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT KALB AND KPSF EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
EXIT. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO DEW POINTS...
ALONG WITH SOME STEAM FOG OFF RIVERS AND SWAMPS COULD BRING SOME
INTERVALS OF MVFR FOG TO KALB...KPSF AND KGFL BETWEEN 08Z-12Z...
MAYBE NOT BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE A TEMPO. OTHERWISE...
AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TREND TOWARD CALM LATE TONIGHT. ON WED...WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
45-60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH
WILL THEN RECOVER TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION AND SOME FOG EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 50-60
PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 230846
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...SKIES REMAIN
MAINLY CLEAR. WINDS HAVE BECOME NEARLY CALM...AND HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WE EXPECT TEMPS TO
DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE. SOME PATCHY
FROST IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND
NW MA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
COMBINATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...HAS PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC AND NE ONTARIO. SOME OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY MID
MORNING...AND MAY EXPAND INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
VT...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY FOR AT LEAST A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS...IN CASE IT
EXPANDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALSO...CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION.

OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS
MAY BOOST TEMPS A BIT MORE THAN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

WED...SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING
IN DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU NT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH 00Z/23
GEFS INDICATING THE PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCH OR GREATER QPF/6
HOURS REACHING INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE OR HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO
INCREASE TOO MUCH IN CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TREND BACK SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE LOW/S TRACK AND PRECIP SHIELD. AT THE VERY
LEAST...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THURSDAY INTO EARLY THU NT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR WED-THU NT...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. EXPECT MINS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. THU MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPANDS
NORTH...AND IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE
GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV MOS/WARMER MET
MOS...WITH 65-70 EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE
RAINFALL...MAX TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S OR EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES AS
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA BUILDING IN. LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STEADY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
COULD SET UP THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE PREDICTED
POSITION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AROUND
70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S...SOME
UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT KALB AND KPSF EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
EXIT. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO DEW POINTS...
ALONG WITH SOME STEAM FOG OFF RIVERS AND SWAMPS COULD BRING SOME
INTERVALS OF MVFR FOG TO KALB...KPSF AND KGFL BETWEEN 08Z-12Z...
MAYBE NOT BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE A TEMPO. OTHERWISE...
AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TREND TOWARD CALM LATE TONIGHT. ON WED...WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
45-60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH
WILL THEN RECOVER TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION AND SOME FOG EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 50-60
PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 230846
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...SKIES REMAIN
MAINLY CLEAR. WINDS HAVE BECOME NEARLY CALM...AND HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WE EXPECT TEMPS TO
DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE. SOME PATCHY
FROST IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND
NW MA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
COMBINATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...HAS PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC AND NE ONTARIO. SOME OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY MID
MORNING...AND MAY EXPAND INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
VT...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY FOR AT LEAST A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS...IN CASE IT
EXPANDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALSO...CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION.

OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS
MAY BOOST TEMPS A BIT MORE THAN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

WED...SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING
IN DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU NT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH 00Z/23
GEFS INDICATING THE PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCH OR GREATER QPF/6
HOURS REACHING INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE OR HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO
INCREASE TOO MUCH IN CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TREND BACK SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE LOW/S TRACK AND PRECIP SHIELD. AT THE VERY
LEAST...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THURSDAY INTO EARLY THU NT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR WED-THU NT...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. EXPECT MINS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. THU MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPANDS
NORTH...AND IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE
GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV MOS/WARMER MET
MOS...WITH 65-70 EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE
RAINFALL...MAX TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S OR EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES AS
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA BUILDING IN. LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STEADY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
COULD SET UP THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE PREDICTED
POSITION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AROUND
70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S...SOME
UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT KALB AND KPSF EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
EXIT. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO DEW POINTS...
ALONG WITH SOME STEAM FOG OFF RIVERS AND SWAMPS COULD BRING SOME
INTERVALS OF MVFR FOG TO KALB...KPSF AND KGFL BETWEEN 08Z-12Z...
MAYBE NOT BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE A TEMPO. OTHERWISE...
AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TREND TOWARD CALM LATE TONIGHT. ON WED...WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
45-60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH
WILL THEN RECOVER TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION AND SOME FOG EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 50-60
PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 230640
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
240 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
STILL HAVE SOME RATHER LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE FROST ADVISORY
CLOSELY. IF DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S...THAT SHOULD
PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FROST. WILL MAKE A FINAL DECISION AT THE
LAST MINUTE BASED ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS AT THE TIME.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MEANS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT WEST WIND. SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP...ALONG
WITH BOTH CORES OF THE HI-RES NAM DO DECREASE WINDS WHERE A
SEABREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT KEEP THE BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE ONLY MODEL/GUIDANCE SOURCE WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY
DEVELOPED A SEABREEZE IS THE HRRR.

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AM WARY ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPING. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY...AM THINKING THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD IT OFFSHORE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. WENT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AS WELL AS THE LARGER URBAN
CENTERS.

WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...STILL EXPECTING EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SO LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO
PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS THU
* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE VERY
DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER
THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

 SAT 9/27...SUN 9/28...MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
OR SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ENOUGH SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS WED NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT/THU IF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ003.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 230640
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
240 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
STILL HAVE SOME RATHER LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE FROST ADVISORY
CLOSELY. IF DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S...THAT SHOULD
PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FROST. WILL MAKE A FINAL DECISION AT THE
LAST MINUTE BASED ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS AT THE TIME.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MEANS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT WEST WIND. SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP...ALONG
WITH BOTH CORES OF THE HI-RES NAM DO DECREASE WINDS WHERE A
SEABREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT KEEP THE BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE ONLY MODEL/GUIDANCE SOURCE WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY
DEVELOPED A SEABREEZE IS THE HRRR.

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AM WARY ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPING. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY...AM THINKING THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD IT OFFSHORE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. WENT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AS WELL AS THE LARGER URBAN
CENTERS.

WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...STILL EXPECTING EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SO LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO
PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS THU
* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE VERY
DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER
THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

 SAT 9/27...SUN 9/28...MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
OR SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ENOUGH SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS WED NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT/THU IF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ003.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 230640
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
240 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
STILL HAVE SOME RATHER LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE FROST ADVISORY
CLOSELY. IF DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S...THAT SHOULD
PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FROST. WILL MAKE A FINAL DECISION AT THE
LAST MINUTE BASED ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS AT THE TIME.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MEANS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT WEST WIND. SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP...ALONG
WITH BOTH CORES OF THE HI-RES NAM DO DECREASE WINDS WHERE A
SEABREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT KEEP THE BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE ONLY MODEL/GUIDANCE SOURCE WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY
DEVELOPED A SEABREEZE IS THE HRRR.

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AM WARY ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPING. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY...AM THINKING THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD IT OFFSHORE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. WENT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AS WELL AS THE LARGER URBAN
CENTERS.

WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...STILL EXPECTING EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SO LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO
PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS THU
* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE VERY
DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER
THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

 SAT 9/27...SUN 9/28...MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
OR SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ENOUGH SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS WED NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT/THU IF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ003.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 230640
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
240 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
STILL HAVE SOME RATHER LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE FROST ADVISORY
CLOSELY. IF DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S...THAT SHOULD
PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FROST. WILL MAKE A FINAL DECISION AT THE
LAST MINUTE BASED ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS AT THE TIME.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MEANS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT WEST WIND. SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP...ALONG
WITH BOTH CORES OF THE HI-RES NAM DO DECREASE WINDS WHERE A
SEABREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT KEEP THE BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE ONLY MODEL/GUIDANCE SOURCE WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY
DEVELOPED A SEABREEZE IS THE HRRR.

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AM WARY ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPING. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY...AM THINKING THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD IT OFFSHORE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S. WENT
HIGHER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA AS WELL AS THE LARGER URBAN
CENTERS.

WEDNESDAY...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...STILL EXPECTING EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SO LOWEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NEAR
THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO
PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS THU
* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE VERY
DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER
THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

 SAT 9/27...SUN 9/28...MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RATHER TRANQUIL BOATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
OR SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ENOUGH SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS WED NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT/THU IF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ003.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KALY 230528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A COOL START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...ONLY SOME PATCHY CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE CENTRAL TACONICS. THESE AREAS WILL
REMAIN TO OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF CLOUDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS THAT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY ERODE. IN VALLEY AREAS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.

WINDS HAVE TRENDED TO NEAR CALM IN MANY VALLEY AREAS...WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH CLEAR SKIES...HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER/MID 40S. STILL EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ELSEWHERE.

SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...AND POSSIBLE SE VT TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN
ADDITION...PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SOME RIVER
VALLEYS...AND OTHER AREAS ADJACENT TO BODIES OF WATER TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT KALB AND KPSF EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
EXIT. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO DEW POINTS...
ALONG WITH SOME STEAM FOG OFF RIVERS AND SWAMPS COULD BRING SOME
INTERVALS OF MVFR FOG TO KALB...KPSF AND KGFL BETWEEN 08Z-12Z...
MAYBE NOT BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE A TEMPO. OTHERWISE...
AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 230528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A COOL START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...ONLY SOME PATCHY CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE CENTRAL TACONICS. THESE AREAS WILL
REMAIN TO OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF CLOUDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS THAT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY ERODE. IN VALLEY AREAS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.

WINDS HAVE TRENDED TO NEAR CALM IN MANY VALLEY AREAS...WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH CLEAR SKIES...HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER/MID 40S. STILL EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ELSEWHERE.

SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...AND POSSIBLE SE VT TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN
ADDITION...PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SOME RIVER
VALLEYS...AND OTHER AREAS ADJACENT TO BODIES OF WATER TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT KALB AND KPSF EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
EXIT. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO DEW POINTS...
ALONG WITH SOME STEAM FOG OFF RIVERS AND SWAMPS COULD BRING SOME
INTERVALS OF MVFR FOG TO KALB...KPSF AND KGFL BETWEEN 08Z-12Z...
MAYBE NOT BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE A TEMPO. OTHERWISE...
AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 230414
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1214 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1210 AM UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO
BRING NEAR TERM FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS. FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING.  WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO
TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST THRESHOLDS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION IS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH...WHERE
GUIDANCE SHOWS DECOUPLING WINDS AND LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE
30S BY DAYBREAK.  WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT
REGION.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
MINS IN UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT
MIXING HEIGHT BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS
TEMPS 65-70 DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M
TEMPS. SOME OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS WED AND THU
* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE VERY
DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER
THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

 SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF A
SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 25 KT ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
OR SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ENOUGH SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS WED NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT/THU IF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ003.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/KJC/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230414
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1214 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1210 AM UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO
BRING NEAR TERM FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS. FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING.  WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO
TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST THRESHOLDS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION IS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH...WHERE
GUIDANCE SHOWS DECOUPLING WINDS AND LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE
30S BY DAYBREAK.  WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT
REGION.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
MINS IN UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT
MIXING HEIGHT BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS
TEMPS 65-70 DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M
TEMPS. SOME OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS WED AND THU
* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE VERY
DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER
THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

 SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF A
SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 25 KT ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
OR SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ENOUGH SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS WED NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT/THU IF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ003.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/KJC/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230414
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1214 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1210 AM UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO
BRING NEAR TERM FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS. FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING.  WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO
TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST THRESHOLDS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION IS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH...WHERE
GUIDANCE SHOWS DECOUPLING WINDS AND LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE
30S BY DAYBREAK.  WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT
REGION.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
MINS IN UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT
MIXING HEIGHT BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS
TEMPS 65-70 DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M
TEMPS. SOME OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS WED AND THU
* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE VERY
DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER
THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

 SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF A
SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 25 KT ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
OR SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ENOUGH SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS WED NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT/THU IF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ003.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/KJC/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230414
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1214 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1210 AM UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO
BRING NEAR TERM FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS. FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING.  WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO
TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST THRESHOLDS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION IS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH...WHERE
GUIDANCE SHOWS DECOUPLING WINDS AND LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE
30S BY DAYBREAK.  WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT
REGION.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
MINS IN UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT
MIXING HEIGHT BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS
TEMPS 65-70 DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M
TEMPS. SOME OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS WED AND THU
* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE VERY
DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER
THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

 SAT 9/27... SUN 9/28... MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF A
SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 25 KT ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
OR SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ENOUGH SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS WED NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT/THU IF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ003.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/KJC/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KALY 230250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A COOL START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...MAINLY ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO FROM THE WEST.
WESTERLY FLOW IS RATHER LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA HOWEVER
CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
HERE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET
INTO THE MID 30S AND THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.

THE GROWING SEASON ENDED FRIDAY MORNING SEPTEMBER 19TH ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KGFL WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 230250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A COOL START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...MAINLY ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO FROM THE WEST.
WESTERLY FLOW IS RATHER LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA HOWEVER
CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
HERE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET
INTO THE MID 30S AND THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.

THE GROWING SEASON ENDED FRIDAY MORNING SEPTEMBER 19TH ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KGFL WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 230250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A COOL START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...MAINLY ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO FROM THE WEST.
WESTERLY FLOW IS RATHER LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA HOWEVER
CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
HERE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET
INTO THE MID 30S AND THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.

THE GROWING SEASON ENDED FRIDAY MORNING SEPTEMBER 19TH ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KGFL WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 230250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A COOL START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...MAINLY ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO FROM THE WEST.
WESTERLY FLOW IS RATHER LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA HOWEVER
CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
HERE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET
INTO THE MID 30S AND THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.

THE GROWING SEASON ENDED FRIDAY MORNING SEPTEMBER 19TH ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KGFL WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 230009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
809 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A COOL START TOMORROW MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET
INTO THE MID 30S AND THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.

THE GROWING SEASON ENDED FRIDAY MORNING SEPTEMBER 19TH ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KGFL WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 230009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
809 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A COOL START TOMORROW MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET
INTO THE MID 30S AND THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.

THE GROWING SEASON ENDED FRIDAY MORNING SEPTEMBER 19TH ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KGFL WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 230009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
809 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A COOL START TOMORROW MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET
INTO THE MID 30S AND THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.

THE GROWING SEASON ENDED FRIDAY MORNING SEPTEMBER 19TH ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KGFL WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 230009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
809 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A COOL START TOMORROW MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET
INTO THE MID 30S AND THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.

THE GROWING SEASON ENDED FRIDAY MORNING SEPTEMBER 19TH ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KGFL WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 222313
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
713 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

710 PM UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING.  WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO
TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST THRESHOLDS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION IS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH...WHERE
GUIDANCE SHOWS DECOUPLING WINDS AND LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE
30S BY DAYBREAK.  WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT
REGION.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
MINS IN UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS WED AND THU
* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE VERY
DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER
THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

    SAT 9/27...SUN 9/28...             MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.  LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE
TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
OR SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ENOUGH SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS WED NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT/THU IF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ003.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222313
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
713 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

710 PM UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING.  WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO
TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST THRESHOLDS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION IS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH...WHERE
GUIDANCE SHOWS DECOUPLING WINDS AND LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE
30S BY DAYBREAK.  WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT
REGION.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
MINS IN UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS WED AND THU
* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE VERY
DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER
THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

    SAT 9/27...SUN 9/28...             MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.  LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE
TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
OR SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ENOUGH SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS WED NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT/THU IF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ003.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222313
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
713 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

710 PM UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING.  WINDS WERE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO
TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST THRESHOLDS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION IS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH...WHERE
GUIDANCE SHOWS DECOUPLING WINDS AND LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE
30S BY DAYBREAK.  WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT
REGION.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
MINS IN UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS WED AND THU
* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.  NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE VERY
DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER
THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

    SAT 9/27...SUN 9/28...             MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.  LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE
TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
OR SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ENOUGH SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS WED NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT/THU IF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ003.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
426 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS WED AND THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE
VERY DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

    SAT 9/27...SUN 9/28...             MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENOUGH
SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS WED
NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS IF COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
426 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS WED AND THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE
VERY DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

    SAT 9/27...SUN 9/28...             MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENOUGH
SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS WED
NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS IF COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
426 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  DISTANT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE LOW RISK FOR FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S. ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL NIGHTS/MILD DAYS WED AND THU
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S THIS WEEKEND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY
* DRY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SITE

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK
BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.
NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT
THIS COMES TO FRUITION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...MILDEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.  LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT SHIELD BE
IN THE 40S...TO THE LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM
FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY HELP IN THIS PROCESS IS THE
VERY DRY GROUND...WHICH MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO GET A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD IN THIS SET UP.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE LIKELY TRENDED TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPS FRI...SHOULD BE WELL UP INTO THE 70S.  SAT/SUN LOOKS LIKE
THE WARMEST DAYS...WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH 80+ ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON
HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...WILL DEPEND WHETHER OR NOT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COOLS US OFF A BIT LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF DEPICTS.  GFS IS STILL
QUITE WARM...BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE A WEEK OUT SO THAT IS UNCERTAIN.  AS
LAST SHIFT POINTED OUT...DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY IN CHECK SO
AFTERNOON/S WILL BE NICE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY:

    SAT 9/27...SUN 9/28...             MON 9/29...

BOS...86...1998         BOS...90...1881         BOS...88...1952
BDL...88...1998         BDL...83...1959         BDL...86...1945
PVD...86...1998         PVD...84...1943         PVD...87...1945
ORH...85...1933         ORH...84...1916         ORH...84...1952

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN
BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCALES.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS WED NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT.  THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN MAKE IT THAT
FAR NORTH WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WED NIGHT INTO THU.  IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENOUGH
SWELL FOR SCA SEAS TO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS WED
NIGHT.  SCA SWELL MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS RIGHT INTO FRI
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS IF COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION.  VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
GOOD THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222015
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY GRAZE SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NO THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.  NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222015
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY GRAZE SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NO THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.  NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222015
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY GRAZE SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NO THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.  NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222015
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY GRAZE SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NO THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.  NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 222015
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY GRAZE SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST
THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW
MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT
BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME
OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT
IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  GIVEN THE POSITIONING
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NO THE EASTERN MA COAST.  HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER
CT RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A
SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST.  IN ADDITION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD.  NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND
ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS COMES TO
FRUITION...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70.  AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING
BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
TUE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS
THE DISTANT INTERIOR.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KALY 222008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY DECREASE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST.  AFTER A COOL START TOMORROW
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ALONG WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 408 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHEAST. OUR REGION HAS BEEN IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM OFF THE REGION OVER
THE MIDWEST...AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THIS TROUGH WILL START TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO FINALLY RELAX OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEY WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

IN ADDITION...STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE DIMINISHING WIND
AND CLEARING SKY...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME PATCHY FROST IS MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING. IF CLOUDS
WIND UP HANGING AROUND LONGER OR THE WIND KEEPS UP A LITTLE LONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED...THEN MIN TEMPS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS LOW AS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS MIXED
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 222008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY DECREASE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST.  AFTER A COOL START TOMORROW
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ALONG WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 408 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHEAST. OUR REGION HAS BEEN IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM OFF THE REGION OVER
THE MIDWEST...AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THIS TROUGH WILL START TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO FINALLY RELAX OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEY WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

IN ADDITION...STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE DIMINISHING WIND
AND CLEARING SKY...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME PATCHY FROST IS MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING. IF CLOUDS
WIND UP HANGING AROUND LONGER OR THE WIND KEEPS UP A LITTLE LONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED...THEN MIN TEMPS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS LOW AS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS MIXED
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 221747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS MIXED
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS MIXED
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
COME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS
MIXED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
COME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS
MIXED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
COME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS
MIXED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
COME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS
MIXED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 221745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SNE AS GUSTY
W/NW WINDS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SCT DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED BUT GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SNE AS GUSTY
W/NW WINDS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SCT DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED BUT GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SNE AS GUSTY
W/NW WINDS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SCT DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED BUT GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SNE AS GUSTY
W/NW WINDS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SCT DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED BUT GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB
OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 221737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221426
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPING IS OCCURRING IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221426
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPING IS OCCURRING IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221426
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPING IS OCCURRING IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221426
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPING IS OCCURRING IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KBOX 221351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTY WEST WIND USHERING IN MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AS DEWPOINTS FALL THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 40S.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CAA...ESPECIALLY WEST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT
REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONGER CAA IS
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 18Z. GOOD MIXING WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...WILL YIELD HIGH SURF
PARTICULARLY AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 221121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 221046
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
646 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

QUITE A CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AT SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS OVER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HAVE NOW
MOVED OFFSHORE AND IS REPLACED BY WEST WINDS ADVECTING IN MUCH
DRIER AIR WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS
THE BLYR WARMS AND DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES
THESE DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

=====================================================================

USING A BLEND OF SFC OBS AND MSAS...IT APPEARS THAT SFC COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE LOW CT VALLEY IN SRN CT
THROUGH ABOUT AFN. IT HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AS IT BEGINS TO PARALLEL
THE UPPER LVL FLOW GIVEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS NOW E OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE IT/S
PROGRESSION TO THE E...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TO FULLY
MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS ESPECIALLY. IN SPITE OF
THIS...MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING FOG HAS NOW DISSIPATED THANKS TO
WESTERLY ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THIS W FLOW ALSO
CONTINUES TO LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING AND DIMINISHING OF WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE
IT MUCH FURTHER E OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...AND UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND...A ROBUST SFC PRES GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...AS SKIES CLEAR AND MIXING COMMENCES...EXPECT A BREEZY
DAY TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH NOT UNCOMMON OUT OF THE
WNW. COLD ADVECTION CU IS ALSO LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SPRINKLE IS ABLE TO BE
SQUEEZED OUT AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO REFLECT THIS IN POPS. REGARDING
HIGHS...H85 TEMPS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY...AND MAY NOT BE MIXED TO
FULLY. SO SUSPECT HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOOK GOOD
GIVEN AT PEAK MIXING...H85 TEMPS AVERAGE ABOUT +8C. DWPTS DROP
INTO THE 40S...SO AT THE VERY LEAST...MUCH LESS HUMID TODAY.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...MAY YIELD HIGH SURF PARTICULARLY
AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 221046
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
646 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THIS AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION MUCH
OF THE WEEK YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. BY WEEKS END TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM WITH POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

QUITE A CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AT SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS OVER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HAVE NOW
MOVED OFFSHORE AND IS REPLACED BY WEST WINDS ADVECTING IN MUCH
DRIER AIR WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS
THE BLYR WARMS AND DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES
THESE DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

=====================================================================

USING A BLEND OF SFC OBS AND MSAS...IT APPEARS THAT SFC COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE LOW CT VALLEY IN SRN CT
THROUGH ABOUT AFN. IT HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AS IT BEGINS TO PARALLEL
THE UPPER LVL FLOW GIVEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS NOW E OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE IT/S
PROGRESSION TO THE E...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TO FULLY
MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS ESPECIALLY. IN SPITE OF
THIS...MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING FOG HAS NOW DISSIPATED THANKS TO
WESTERLY ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THIS W FLOW ALSO
CONTINUES TO LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING AND DIMINISHING OF WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE
IT MUCH FURTHER E OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...AND UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND...A ROBUST SFC PRES GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...AS SKIES CLEAR AND MIXING COMMENCES...EXPECT A BREEZY
DAY TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH NOT UNCOMMON OUT OF THE
WNW. COLD ADVECTION CU IS ALSO LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SPRINKLE IS ABLE TO BE
SQUEEZED OUT AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO REFLECT THIS IN POPS. REGARDING
HIGHS...H85 TEMPS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY...AND MAY NOT BE MIXED TO
FULLY. SO SUSPECT HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOOK GOOD
GIVEN AT PEAK MIXING...H85 TEMPS AVERAGE ABOUT +8C. DWPTS DROP
INTO THE 40S...SO AT THE VERY LEAST...MUCH LESS HUMID TODAY.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...MAY YIELD HIGH SURF PARTICULARLY
AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

     SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

     DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

     9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH WEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. 06Z TAFS CAPTURE THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KALY 221045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 220849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
449 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS SW MA AND NW CT.
THIS CLEARING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...AND ALSO
A SURGE OF DOWNSLOPING W/SW LOW LEVEL WINDS. CLOUDS REMAIN
PREVALENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AND ARE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT BY OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 220849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
449 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS SW MA AND NW CT.
THIS CLEARING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...AND ALSO
A SURGE OF DOWNSLOPING W/SW LOW LEVEL WINDS. CLOUDS REMAIN
PREVALENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AND ARE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT BY OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 220752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE TODAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA
YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.
TEMPERATURES THEN BEGIN TO WARM BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
USING A BLEND OF SFC OBS AND MSAS...IT APPEARS THAT SFC COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE LOW CT VALLEY IN SRN CT THROUGH
ABOUT AFN. IT HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AS IT BEGINS TO PARALLEL THE
UPPER LVL FLOW GIVEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS NOW E OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE IT/S PROGRESSION TO
THE E...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TO FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE OF
THE CAPE/ISLANDS ESPECIALLY. IN SPITE OF THIS...MUCH OF THE EARLY
MORNING FOG HAS NOW DISSIPATED THANKS TO WESTERLY ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THIS W FLOW ALSO CONTINUES TO LEAD TO
DOWNSLOPING AND DIMINISHING OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE -SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT MUCH
FURTHER E OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...AND UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND...A ROBUST SFC PRES GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...AS SKIES CLEAR AND MIXING COMMENCES...EXPECT A BREEZY
DAY TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH NOT UNCOMMON OUT OF THE
WNW. COLD ADVECTION CU IS ALSO LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SPRINKLE IS ABLE TO BE
SQUEEZED OUT AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO REFLECT THIS IN POPS. REGARDING
HIGHS...H85 TEMPS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY...AND MAY NOT BE MIXED TO
FULLY. SO SUSPECT HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOOK GOOD
GIVEN AT PEAK MIXING...H85 TEMPS AVERAGE ABOUT +8C. DWPTS DROP
INTO THE 40S...SO AT THE VERY LEAST...MUCH LESS HUMID TODAY.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...MAY YIELD HIGH SURF PARTICULARLY
AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

...DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

...9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
WITH A MIX OF ALL CATEGORIES...EXPECT THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
12Z WILL BE TOWARD VFR FROM W-E. TIMING IN TAFS MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR OR SO...BUT ONCE WINDS PICK UP AND SHIFT MORE W-NW VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THEREAFTER.

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE TODAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA
YIELDING MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.
TEMPERATURES THEN BEGIN TO WARM BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
USING A BLEND OF SFC OBS AND MSAS...IT APPEARS THAT SFC COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE LOW CT VALLEY IN SRN CT THROUGH
ABOUT AFN. IT HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AS IT BEGINS TO PARALLEL THE
UPPER LVL FLOW GIVEN THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS NOW E OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE IT/S PROGRESSION TO
THE E...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TO FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE OF
THE CAPE/ISLANDS ESPECIALLY. IN SPITE OF THIS...MUCH OF THE EARLY
MORNING FOG HAS NOW DISSIPATED THANKS TO WESTERLY ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. THIS W FLOW ALSO CONTINUES TO LEAD TO
DOWNSLOPING AND DIMINISHING OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE -SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT MUCH
FURTHER E OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...AND UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND...A ROBUST SFC PRES GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...AS SKIES CLEAR AND MIXING COMMENCES...EXPECT A BREEZY
DAY TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH NOT UNCOMMON OUT OF THE
WNW. COLD ADVECTION CU IS ALSO LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SPRINKLE IS ABLE TO BE
SQUEEZED OUT AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO REFLECT THIS IN POPS. REGARDING
HIGHS...H85 TEMPS ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY...AND MAY NOT BE MIXED TO
FULLY. SO SUSPECT HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOOK GOOD
GIVEN AT PEAK MIXING...H85 TEMPS AVERAGE ABOUT +8C. DWPTS DROP
INTO THE 40S...SO AT THE VERY LEAST...MUCH LESS HUMID TODAY.

A BUILDING OFFSHORE SWELL TODAY...MAY YIELD HIGH SURF PARTICULARLY
AT SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COOL DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE AS NOSE OF STRONG 1035 HPA HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. IN SPITE OF THIS MORE AUTUMN-LIKE
AIRMASS...MINS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING DIURNAL CU EARLY...AND SFC PRES
GRADIENT TAKING SOME TIME TO FULLY SLACKEN MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ARE LIKELY...WITH MINS
CLOSER TO 50 IN THE URBAN SPOTS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY IN
NW MA AND SW NH. IT/S VERY CLOSE TO FROST THRESHOLDS...BUT WITH
THE MITIGATING FACTORS MENTIONED...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE DAY.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE.
THEREFORE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS HOVER
AROUND +6C...BUT MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. MAINLY THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS
  FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND

* HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD

...SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL EVALUATION...

FAIRLY STRONG TELECONNECTION FOR RIDGING HERE IN THE EAST THIS
COMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS +PNA TRENDS TOWARD NEUTRAL ALONG
WITH NAO AND AO TRENDING OR REMAINING POSITIVE. DURING THIS TIME THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLVES INTO A WEST COAST TROUGH WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY.  THIS IS A
WARM AND DRY SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THERE ARE ALWAYS WILDCARDS AT THIS TIME RANGE AND
THIS CASE IS NO EXCEPTION.

THE FIRST WILDCARD WILL BE THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
MARITIMES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES
CLIMBING OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AND THEN INTO THE MARITIMES
DRAGS ANY BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD YIELD
COOLER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA. THE OTHER WILDCARD WILL BE
MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THIS MOISTURE/INVERTED TROUGH
CREEPING NORTHWARD DURING THIS WEEK AND GETTING CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE THEN GETTING SHUNTED OUT TO SEA FRI.

OTHERWISE DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING LATER TODAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DELIVERS ONE OR MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECENS AND 00Z GEFS HAVE 850 TEMPS WARMING TO +14C
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

...DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU...

DRY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHILLY NIGHTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE THE URBAN AREAS AND AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY TO 65-70.
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL STRAY AWAY FROM A MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW THE
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGS IN THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS /I.E. NORWOOD-TAUNTON-MARTHAS VINEYARD-
ETC/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE AND INVERTED
TROUGH CREEPING UP THE COAST WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. 00Z GEFS HAS
TRENDED NORTH WITH LOW PROBS OF 0.05 QPF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE SOUTH COAST WITH A MODEL BLEND OF QPF BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN
INTO NORTHERN CT-RI TO SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON.


FRI/SAT AND SUN...

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN
PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE

...9/27...

BOS...86...1998
BDL...88...1998
PVD...86...1998
ORH...85...1933

GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
WITH A MIX OF ALL CATEGORIES...EXPECT THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
12Z WILL BE TOWARD VFR FROM W-E. TIMING IN TAFS MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR OR SO...BUT ONCE WINDS PICK UP AND SHIFT MORE W-NW VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THEREAFTER.

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SLOWLY BUILDING SWELL MAY APPROACH 10 FT WELL OFFSHORE...BUT
INCREASE TO 5-8FT CLOSER TO THE THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AS W-NW WINDS REACH ABOUT 25 KT. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...DROPPING CLOSE TO SHORE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE SWELL MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING TO
COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON THE S AND SE WATERS.

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AFTER THE LEFTOVER SWELL SUBSIDES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO CREST OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220545
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
145 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE W AS
ISALLOBARIC COUPLET SUPPORTS RAPID PRES RISES TO THE W AND FALLING
TO THE E AS LOW PRES SLIDES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THIS SHIFT HAS
LEAD TO A DRYING TREND AND REDUCTION IN THE OVERALL FOG COVERAGE.
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SPS/S AND ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING
THOUGH AS THE ACTUAL FRONT IS NOW ONLY JUST E OF THE CT VALLEY
AND WILL TAKE 3-6 MORE HOURS TO CLEAR. OTHERWISE...FORECAST MAINLY
ON TRACK AS REMNANT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRY AS THEY REACH THE
DOWNSLOPING IN THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
WITH A MIX OF ALL CATEGORIES...EXPECT THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH
12Z WILL BE TOWARD VFR FROM W-E. TIMING IN TAFS MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR OR SO...BUT ONCE WINDS PICK UP AND SHIFT MORE W-NW VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE THEREAFTER.

TODAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER AT ACK THROUGH MID
MORNING. WINDS MAINLY WNW TODAY...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT
TIMES THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR FROM NOW ON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ020>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ006-007-014.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KALY 220533
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. COOLER AND BRISK
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
AROUND THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 2 AND 4 AM...ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH. DEPENDING ON HOW LIGHT WINDS BECOME...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN COLD FRONT...AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD.
THESE FEATURES SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN 3
AND 5 AM...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN
VT...AS WELL AS PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY NORTH...ESP TOWARD AND AFTER 5 AM.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TOWARD AND AFTER 5
AM...AS THE FRONT AND UPPER IMPULSE PASS THROUGH...AND WINDS
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALIGN FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
AND SOME GUSTINESS TO DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 220533
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. COOLER AND BRISK
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
AROUND THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 2 AND 4 AM...ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH. DEPENDING ON HOW LIGHT WINDS BECOME...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN COLD FRONT...AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD.
THESE FEATURES SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN 3
AND 5 AM...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN
VT...AS WELL AS PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY NORTH...ESP TOWARD AND AFTER 5 AM.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TOWARD AND AFTER 5
AM...AS THE FRONT AND UPPER IMPULSE PASS THROUGH...AND WINDS
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALIGN FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
AND SOME GUSTINESS TO DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 220252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. COOLER AND BRISK
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1052 PM...MOST OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION INTO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH THAT CAN BE SEEN ON SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL NY. NOT MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT...AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS
BEEN LOST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES IN. MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THOUGH ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 220252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. COOLER AND BRISK
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1052 PM...MOST OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION INTO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH THAT CAN BE SEEN ON SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL NY. NOT MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT...AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS
BEEN LOST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES IN. MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THOUGH ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KBOX 220200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E MA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SHIFT
NE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FROM THIS BUT JUST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAVE BEEN WATCHING A
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...STILL A BIT OF -SHRA ACTIVITY LEFT...BUT NOT MUCH
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY WRN MA AND SW NH WILL BE HAVE THIS
RAIN IN THE CARDS BUT GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER THAT...THE RAPID
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR...LONG SINCE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
SHIFT OF BEST DYNAMICS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST
OF THESE TO DISSIPATE SUCH THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF GUST OF WIND AND WIND SHIFT...IS SEEN ELSEWHERE WITH THIS
FROPA.

OTHERWISE...A POCKET OF VERY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE N
SHORE OF MA INTO COASTAL MAINE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER LOCATIONS REPORTING UNDER HALF A MILE ARE
ORH AND TAN...BUT FEEL THESE ARE LIKELY MORE COLOCATED WITH THE
AIRPORT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ006-007-014.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...FRANK/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E MA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SHIFT
NE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FROM THIS BUT JUST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAVE BEEN WATCHING A
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...STILL A BIT OF -SHRA ACTIVITY LEFT...BUT NOT MUCH
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY WRN MA AND SW NH WILL BE HAVE THIS
RAIN IN THE CARDS BUT GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER THAT...THE RAPID
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR...LONG SINCE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
SHIFT OF BEST DYNAMICS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST
OF THESE TO DISSIPATE SUCH THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF GUST OF WIND AND WIND SHIFT...IS SEEN ELSEWHERE WITH THIS
FROPA.

OTHERWISE...A POCKET OF VERY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE N
SHORE OF MA INTO COASTAL MAINE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER LOCATIONS REPORTING UNDER HALF A MILE ARE
ORH AND TAN...BUT FEEL THESE ARE LIKELY MORE COLOCATED WITH THE
AIRPORT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ006-007-014.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...FRANK/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E MA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SHIFT
NE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FROM THIS BUT JUST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAVE BEEN WATCHING A
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...STILL A BIT OF -SHRA ACTIVITY LEFT...BUT NOT MUCH
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY WRN MA AND SW NH WILL BE HAVE THIS
RAIN IN THE CARDS BUT GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER THAT...THE RAPID
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR...LONG SINCE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
SHIFT OF BEST DYNAMICS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST
OF THESE TO DISSIPATE SUCH THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF GUST OF WIND AND WIND SHIFT...IS SEEN ELSEWHERE WITH THIS
FROPA.

OTHERWISE...A POCKET OF VERY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE N
SHORE OF MA INTO COASTAL MAINE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER LOCATIONS REPORTING UNDER HALF A MILE ARE
ORH AND TAN...BUT FEEL THESE ARE LIKELY MORE COLOCATED WITH THE
AIRPORT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ006-007-014.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...FRANK/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E MA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SHIFT
NE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FROM THIS BUT JUST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAVE BEEN WATCHING A
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...STILL A BIT OF -SHRA ACTIVITY LEFT...BUT NOT MUCH
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY WRN MA AND SW NH WILL BE HAVE THIS
RAIN IN THE CARDS BUT GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. AFTER THAT...THE RAPID
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR...LONG SINCE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
SHIFT OF BEST DYNAMICS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST
OF THESE TO DISSIPATE SUCH THAT VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY...ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF GUST OF WIND AND WIND SHIFT...IS SEEN ELSEWHERE WITH THIS
FROPA.

OTHERWISE...A POCKET OF VERY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE N
SHORE OF MA INTO COASTAL MAINE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER LOCATIONS REPORTING UNDER HALF A MILE ARE
ORH AND TAN...BUT FEEL THESE ARE LIKELY MORE COLOCATED WITH THE
AIRPORT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ006-007-014.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/GAF
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...FRANK/GAF
MARINE...FRANK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KALY 212353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM...BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CROSSING
CENTRAL NY AT THIS TIME. THE LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND APPROACHING THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. WHILE A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED...THERE STILL COULD
BE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND SOME GUSTY WIND. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT IS FARTHER WEST IMPACTING THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH
DECREASING POPS SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUING
WEAKENING AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN LATE EVENING
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES IN...HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 212353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM...BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CROSSING
CENTRAL NY AT THIS TIME. THE LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND APPROACHING THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. WHILE A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED...THERE STILL COULD
BE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND SOME GUSTY WIND. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT IS FARTHER WEST IMPACTING THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH
DECREASING POPS SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUING
WEAKENING AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN LATE EVENING
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES IN...HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 212353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM...BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CROSSING
CENTRAL NY AT THIS TIME. THE LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND APPROACHING THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. WHILE A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED...THERE STILL COULD
BE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND SOME GUSTY WIND. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT IS FARTHER WEST IMPACTING THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH
DECREASING POPS SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUING
WEAKENING AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN LATE EVENING
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES IN...HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 212353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM...BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CROSSING
CENTRAL NY AT THIS TIME. THE LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND APPROACHING THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. WHILE A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED...THERE STILL COULD
BE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND SOME GUSTY WIND. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT IS FARTHER WEST IMPACTING THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH
DECREASING POPS SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUING
WEAKENING AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN LATE EVENING
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES IN...HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KBOX 212307
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW
 ENGLAND COAST***

7 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED DIURNAL-INDUCED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SUNDOWN. A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS WERE
STILL IN BOSTON/S SOUTH SHORE HEADING NORTH. AREA OF STEADY RAIN
CONTINUES OVER THE ISLANDS. AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAD
FORMED...AT MARSHFIELD AND FALMOUTH IN SOUTHEAST MA. WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF IT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. IF
SO...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE VERY MUGGY
AIRMASS CONTINUES. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES OR POPS AT THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FIELD/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...FIELD/FRANK
MARINE...FIELD/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 212307
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS TO THE
REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. WE
COULD APPROACH RECORD WARMTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

***A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW
 ENGLAND COAST***

7 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED DIURNAL-INDUCED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SUNDOWN. A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS WERE
STILL IN BOSTON/S SOUTH SHORE HEADING NORTH. AREA OF STEADY RAIN
CONTINUES OVER THE ISLANDS. AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAD
FORMED...AT MARSHFIELD AND FALMOUTH IN SOUTHEAST MA. WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF IT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. IF
SO...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE VERY MUGGY
AIRMASS CONTINUES. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES OR POPS AT THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST AND PASSING NEAR THE
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GET. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PROBABLY FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/RHODE ISLAND FOR AT LEAST A TIME. IN
FACT...LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. NOT SURE IF
IT WILL GET THAT FAR NORTHWEST...BUT ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NANTUCKET...
WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
THE RAIN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS...BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...ONCE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL MAINLY BE DRY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  WHILE SHEAR IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT.  SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES...THEY WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. WHILE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY...MAY SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WORK INTO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT STILL WILL
REACH BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ALONG HE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY GOOD
MIXING.

HIGH SURF...GIVEN LARGE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH COAST ON MONDAY.  WE ISSUE HIGH SURF PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF SEPTEMBER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOOKS LIKE
A PRETTY GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.  THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND OF BOSTON WILL BE THE MILD SPOT WITH THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY

OVERVIEW...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY. THEN...MUCH ADO ABOUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS VERY STRONG AS IT IS PARKED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS... TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT ONLY
PARTLY SUNNY NW MA AND SW NH CLOSER TO SOME HIGHER 925 MB
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS THROUGH THU DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED ALONG WITH VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. AS THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER HIGH APPROACHES...AM EXPECTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP FRI
AND ESPECIALLY SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF RUN IS EVEN WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM +12C TUE...TO
+17C FRI... TO +19C OR +20C ON SAT... WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HAVE GONE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...WITH
HIGHS SOARING TO 80 TO 85 ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RECORDS FOR THAT DAY INCLUDE 85 AT WORCESTER AND 86 AT BOTH BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS A HINT OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT/TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST MA ON SAT BUT THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH TO DETRACT FROM
THE VERY WARM FORECAST...AS YET.

AN UPPER LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH IS
LIKELY TO BE CAUSING PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD.
THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA ONLY GETS AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS OFF THE NJ COAST BY FRI...BEFORE RETREATING
SOUTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOW IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES IN LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
MANY AREAS BECOMING IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS FROM ABOUT A JAFFREY-WORCESTER-WILLIMANTIC
LINE EASTWARD. STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHEAST MA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
JUST A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY
AS A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR.
WED...VFR
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR
THE BENCHMARK WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL FOR
SCA SEAS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND WESTERN SOUNDS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BOSTON HARBOR.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SCA SEAS
ON THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND OUTER-WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA FOR A TIME
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SOUNDS AND
WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW...
SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE...

TUE AND WED...SEAS NEAR 5 FT MAY LINGER AT TIMES TUE AND WED OVER
THE WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A NORTHEAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT.

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/FIELD
NEAR TERM...FIELD/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...FIELD/FRANK
MARINE...FIELD/FRANK




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