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000
FXUS61 KBOX 310840
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
440 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST SATURDAY AND PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE OR TWO COLD FRONTS MAY CROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS AT 07Z...THOUGH NOTING SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS
WELL AS ALONG THE S COAST ON LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP. NAM AND GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT THE 5-6KFT CEILINGS MAY BREAK UP
BRIEFLY AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPING AS NE WINDS
BRING IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.

LOW PRES MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...THEN SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT BEGINS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
DEEP MOISTURE WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION SO
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING. MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY RISE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
INLAND TERRAIN...THEN MAINLY IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE WITH THE
FRESHENING E-NE WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOT ONE BUT TWO CENTERS OF LOW PRES AS H5 LONG
WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE SE U.S. NOTING TWO STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JETS MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH...THE FIRST
90-100 KT H3 JET AXIS WORKS NE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
INTENSIFY THE FIRST LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AROUND 12Z SAT.

AREA OF RAIN WILL WORK STEADILY NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY AROUND OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE NE WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS RI/E MA.

EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER SW NH TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH GENERATES A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WITH TWO JET STREAMS...A NORTHERN STREAM ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND A SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING WITH THE SHORT
WAVE. THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE PATTERN THEN TRANSFORMS TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW. REMAINS OF THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND MIDWEEK.

COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
THIS POINTS TO A COLDER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND...TRENDING TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK.

31/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT. THERE
ALSO REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK...INTENSITY AND TIMING. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS SNOWFALL IS MOSTLY OFF THE TABLE AWAY FROM A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EVEN THEN...IT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. FAVORED A BLEND TO SMOOTH
OVER SOME OF THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES. THIS RESULTED IN VERY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY. SUPPORT COMES FROM TWO SETS OF FORCING MECHANISMS...
SUGGESTING A TWO-PART EVENT. INITIAL FORCING COMES FROM RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN STREAM JET SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
SEND A COASTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PAST SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

THE SECOND FORCING COMES FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET SUPPORTING
A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WITH EACH SEGMENT IS FOCUSED OFFSHORE INTO THE MARITIMES
AND MAINE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FORCING SHOULD EXTEND INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE FIRST...AND POSSIBLY THE SECOND...OF
THE SEGMENTS. WE EXPECT RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...LESSER VALUES NORTH
AND WEST.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST WATERS. STRONGEST LAND WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING FARTHER WEST. HAVE
FEATURED 45 KNOTS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE
INTERIOR.

A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS US IN PIECES SATURDAY AND LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND END ON THE MA EAST COAST AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR ALL RAIN. AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN WHICH COULD CHANGE
THE LAST SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE...WHERE IT
SNOWS AT ALL.

DRIER AIR SUNDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER WILL
BE 35 TO 40 KNOTS...SO EXPECT NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AT LEAST THE
LOWER END OF THIS RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM
MOVES FARTHER AWAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MONDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AS
THIS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. MIXING WILL AGAIN BRING INCREASED WIND
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STRONGER SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE ROOM
FOR A WARM FRONT TO SWING PAST. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE BEST WARM FRONTAL LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN THROUGH
THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON MIDWEEK WEATHER. AT LEAST ONE TROUGH IN THE
ZONAL FLOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE HINTING AT ONE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOWING A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH PASSING ON THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL HAVE
CLOUDS AND LOW-END CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG IN
NORMALLY PRONE AREAS.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY
FOG WILL IMPROVE BY 14Z.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT TO MVFR-IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE S COAST AND INTO SE MA
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOVING INTO THE REMAINDER MOST OF THE
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...IFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR AND DRIER WEATHER MOVE IN FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY GUSTING 35-45 KNOTS
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 25-35 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS 40-
45 KNOTS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...WITH 25-35 KNOTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...VFR. DAYTIME WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
INLAND AND 35 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. WINDS
WILL VEER TO E-NE DURING THE DAY AND BEGIN TO PICK UP. GUSTS UP TO
20 KT REACH THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

TONIGHT...E-NE WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT. SMALL
CRAFTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS...BUT NOT QUITE
THERE FOR BOSTON HARBOR AND MASS/IPSWICH BAYS. SEAS WILL ALSO
BUILD ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS DURING THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END GALES...WITH LOW
POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS. ON THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 45 KNOTS.

EXPECT RAIN WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED ON MOST OF THE WATERS. RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF GALE FORCE
WINDS IN BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. GALE WATCHES POSTED
FOR ALL WATERS. KEPT IT SIMPLE FOR NOW...BUT WILL DEFINITELY NEED
TO REFINE THE TIMING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH LATER
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY...RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND SHIFT...ROUGH SEAS
WILL TRANSITION FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DIMINISHING SEAS CLOSER TO
SHORE. GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE
FORCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. SEAS
WILL LINGER AT 5-9 FEET...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY...LOW END CHANCE THAT GALES MAY BE NEEDED
ON SOME OF THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AND BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE
NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE
CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20
FEET ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. THE TREND OF
THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS
WITH THE SATURDAY EVENING PULSE. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE
MODELS TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE AT RISK
WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND
POSSIBLY EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND
PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND
NANTUCKET HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BELK



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000
FXUS61 KALY 310825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT...THE SKY WAS GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS OUR
REGION. A PATCH OF STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUED TO PERSIST IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 40S THERE.
CLOUDS WERE MORE EXTENSIVE IN VERMONT AS WELL HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP CLOSER TO 40 AS WELL. MEANWHILE IT WAS GENERALLY IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH MANY OUTLYING AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS 35-40 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...LOWER 30S OR UPPER
20S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV













000
FXUS61 KALY 310743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT...THE SKY WAS GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS OUR
REGION. A PATCH OF STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUED TO PERSIST IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 40S THERE.
CLOUDS WERE MORE EXTENSIVE IN VERMONT AS WELL HOLDING TEMPERATURES
UP CLOSER TO 40 AS WELL. MEANWHILE IT WAS GENERALLY IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH MANY OUTLYING AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS 35-40 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...LOWER 30S OR UPPER
20S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT.

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT.

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO
THE CHILL.

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMING SOON.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT.

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S
MOUNTAINS.

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT
SNOW.

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBOX 310627
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
227 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST SATURDAY AND PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE OR TWO COLD FRONTS MAY CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

210 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS S NH/E MA AS
OF 06Z BASED ON LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS. TEMPS HAVE TENDED TO
LEVEL OFF WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED...THOUGH KCEF DOWN TO 29
DEGS WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR AND WINDS ARE CALM. CALM
WINDS INLAND BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO LIGHT N-NE...WITH A NE WIND
5-10 KT ON THE OUTER CAPE. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING 5-6KFT CLOUD DECK
WELL FROM KBOS-KBED-KCON.

NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP WHERE THERE IS LOW
DEWPT DEPRESSION...AND SHOULD SEE MORE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP IN
NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WIDE
RANGE OF TEMPS CONTINUE...FROM THE LOWER-MID 30S WELL INLAND TO
45-50 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE WITH N-NE WINDS.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TODAY...ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT IT TO FEEL A
BIT COOLER THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW.

TONIGHT...WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH THE UPCOMING STORM MOST OF THIS WILL AFFECT THE WEEKENDS
WEATHER SO WILL MOSTLY DISCUSS IT IN THE LONG TERM SECTION. SHOULD
MOSTLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE ONTO THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...
DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH GENERATES A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WITH TWO JET STREAMS...A NORTHERN STREAM ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND A SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING WITH THE SHORT
WAVE. THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE PATTERN THEN TRANSFORMS TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW. REMAINS OF THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND MIDWEEK.

COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH THE WEEKEND TROUGH. THESE BUILD TO
NORMAL OR A LITTLE MILDER THAN NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS POINTS TO A
COLDER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND TRENDING TO NORMAL TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

THE GFS...WHILE SERVICEABLE...IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER. FOR THE GRIDS
WE WILL USE A BLEND OF MODEL DATA INCLUDING HPC AND /WHERE POSSIBLE/
THE 12Z ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...

COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY. SUPPORT COMES FROM TWO SETS OF FORCING
MECHANISMS...SUGGESTING A TWO-PART EVENT. BUT FINE-TUNING THE TIMING
OF THESE PARTS IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT. INITIAL FORCING COMES FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN STREAM JET SATURDAY MORNING.
SECOND FORCING COMES FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET SUPPORTING
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WITH EACH SEGMENT IS FOCUSED ON THE MARITIMES AND MAINE. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FORCING SHOULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH THE FIRST AND POSSIBLY THE SECOND OF THE SEGMENTS. WE
EXPECT RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...LESSER VALUES NORTH AND WEST.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST WATERS. STRONGEST LAND WINDS WILL BE OVER
THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING FARTHER WEST. HAVE FEATURED
45 KNOTS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE INTERIOR.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL PASS US IN PIECES SATURDAY AND LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH WEST TO
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND END ON THE MASS EAST COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
RAIN.  AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN WHICH COULD CHANGE THE LAST
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
TRACE. SOME HIGHLANDS SUCH AS IN THE MONADNOCK COULD PICK UP A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION AT STORM/S END.

DRIER AIR SUNDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER WILL BE
35 TO 40 KNOTS...SO EXPECT NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AT LEAST THE LOWER END
OF THIS RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES
FARTHER AWAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MONDAY
SHOULD BE SUNNY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. MIXING WILL AGAIN
BRING INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER ARE EXPECTED AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE STRONGER SPEEDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE ROOM FOR A WARM
FRONT TO SWING PAST. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE BEST WARM FRONTAL LIFT WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST SO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN THROUGH THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE ON MIDWEEK WEATHER.  AT LEAST
ONE TROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME. GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT ONE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SHOWING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH PASSING ON THURSDAY.  THE FORECAST
WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND LOW-END CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG IN
NORMALLY PRONE AREAS.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY
FOG WILL IMPROVE BY 14Z.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. RAIN/SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WE NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...IFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR AND DRIER WEATHER MOVE IN FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 25-30 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 40-
45 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 30-35 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

MONDAY...VFR. DAYTIME WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
INLAND AND 35 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES TODAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST THEN EAST DURING THE DAY. THESE EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE
CAROLINAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END GALES ON THE OUTER
WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. LOW POTENTIAL OF STORM FORCE WINDS
ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. GALE
FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED ON MOST WATERS.WAVEWATCH MODEL FORECASTS OF
SEA HEIGHTS ARE LOWER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE HAVE BUMPED
SEAS UP 2-3 FEET WITH 15 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES TO ADDRESS
THIS CONCERN.

SUNDAY...RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS 40-45 KNOTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND SHIFT...THE ROUGH SEAS WILL
MIGRATE FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DIMINISHING SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE.
GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5-9 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS LIKELY...LOW-END CHANCE THAT GALES MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME
OF THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH
SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET.  THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING.  THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  THE TREND OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS WITH THE
SATURDAY EVENING PULSE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS
TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE AT RISK WITH A 1 TO
2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND POSSIBLY
EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG/EVT
MARINE...WTB/RLG/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 310549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND IN SOME
CASES SOME LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED BREEZES. WE DECIDED NOT TO TINKER
WITH ANY LOWS AS EVEN DOWN AT POUGHKEEPSIE...WHERE IT WAS STILL IN
THE MID 40S...MONTOGMERY AND PHILMONT WERE ONLY 35!

IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 30S...LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...











000
FXUS61 KALY 310431
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND IN SOME
CASES SOME LOCAL TERRAIN INDUCED BREEZES. WE DECIDED NOT TO TINKER
WITH ANY LOWS AS EVEN DOWN AT POUGHKEEPSIE...WHERE IT WAS STILL IN
THE MID 40S...MONTOGMERY AND PHILMONT WERE ONLY 35!

IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 30S...LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE SCT-BKN
FROM 4-6 KFT THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL TURN OVC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS MAINLY ARND 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 10 THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NE-SE AT 4-5 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBOX 310300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST SATURDAY AND PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE OR TWO COLD FRONTS MAY CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
LIGHT PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES AS HIGH PRES REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION AT 02Z. WINDS ARE GENERALLY CALM...THOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN
HAS A BIT MORE WINDS. NOTING NW WIND AT 8-10 KT AT KORH AND NNW
WIND AT 8 KT AT KMQE...BOTH ELEVATED LOCATIONS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
BACK TO THE MID-UPPER 30S AT THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS THANKS
TO RADIATIONAL COOLING...DOWN TO 36 AT KORE AND 37 AT KTAN.

SKIES WERE BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AT MOST LOCATIONS AS NOTED ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS...THOUGH AREA OF CLOUDS CONTINUES
ACROSS SE MA AS WELL AS ACROSS S NH/NW MA.

WHERE TEMPS WERE FALLING BACK CLOSE TO DEWPTS...HAVE ADDED MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE NORMALLY PRONE
AREAS ACROSS E INTERIOR MA AS WELL AS THE CT VALLEY INTO NE CT AND
EVEN ON MARTHAS VINEYARD WHERE TEMPS HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW 40
WITH CALM WINDS.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND WORK CHANGES
MENTIONED ABOVE INTO NEAR TERM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
COMPLETELY RADIATING. ANYWHERE THE WINDS DO DROP OFF TO CALM...
THE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES FAIRLY QUICKLY.
OVERALL...EXPECT LOWS IN THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT IT TO FEEL A
BIT COOLER THAN TODAY.  OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPCOMING STORM MOST OF THIS WILL AFFECT THE
WEEKENDS WEATHER SO WILL MOSTLY DISCUSS IT IN THE LONG TERM SECTION.
SHOULD MOSTLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE ONTO THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH GENERATES A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WITH TWO JET STREAMS...A NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND A SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING WITH THE SHORT WAVE.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THE PATTERN THEN TRANSFORMS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW.
REMAINS OF THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK.

COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH THE WEEKEND TROUGH. THESE BUILD TO
NORMAL OR A LITTLE MILDER THAN NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS POINTS TO A
COLDER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND TRENDING TO NORMAL TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

THE GFS...WHILE SERVICEABLE...IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER. FOR THE GRIDS
WE WILL USE A BLEND OF MODEL DATA INCLUDING HPC AND /WHERE POSSIBLE/
THE 12Z ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...

COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY. SUPPORT COMES FROM TWO SETS OF FORCING
MECHANISMS...SUGGESTING A TWO-PART EVENT. BUT FINE-TUNING THE TIMING
OF THESE PARTS IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT. INITIAL FORCING COMES FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN STREAM JET SATURDAY MORNING.
SECOND FORCING COMES FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET SUPPORTING
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WITH EACH SEGMENT IS FOCUSED ON THE MARITIMES AND MAINE. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FORCING SHOULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH THE FIRST AND POSSIBLY THE SECOND OF THE SEGMENTS. WE
EXPECT RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...LESSER VALUES NORTH AND WEST.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST WATERS. STRONGEST LAND WINDS WILL BE OVER
THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING FARTHER WEST. HAVE FEATURED
45 KNOTS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE INTERIOR.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL PASS US IN PIECES SATURDAY AND LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH WEST TO
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND END ON THE MASS EAST COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
RAIN.  AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN WHICH COULD CHANGE THE LAST
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
TRACE. SOME HIGHLANDS SUCH AS IN THE MONADNOCK COULD PICK UP A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION AT STORM/S END.

DRIER AIR SUNDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER WILL BE
35 TO 40 KNOTS...SO EXPECT NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AT LEAST THE LOWER END
OF THIS RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES
FARTHER AWAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MONDAY
SHOULD BE SUNNY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. MIXING WILL AGAIN
BRING INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER ARE EXPECTED AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE STRONGER SPEEDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE ROOM FOR A WARM
FRONT TO SWING PAST. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE BEST WARM FRONTAL LIFT WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST SO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN THROUGH THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE ON MIDWEEK WEATHER.  AT LEAST
ONE TROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME. GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT ONE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SHOWING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH PASSING ON THURSDAY.  THE FORECAST
WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND LOW-END CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  RAIN/SHOWERS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WE NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...IFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR AND DRIER WEATHER MOVE IN FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 25-30 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 40-
45 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 30-35 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

MONDAY...VFR. DAYTIME WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
INLAND AND 35 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST DURING FRIDAY. THESE
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE CAROLINAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF
FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END GALES ON THE OUTER
WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. LOW POTENTIAL OF STORM FORCE WINDS
ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. GALE
FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED ON MOST WATERS.WAVEWATCH MODEL FORECASTS OF
SEA HEIGHTS ARE LOWER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE HAVE BUMPED
SEAS UP 2-3 FEET WITH 15 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES TO ADDRESS
THIS CONCERN.

SUNDAY...RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS 40-45 KNOTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND SHIFT...THE ROUGH SEAS WILL
MIGRATE FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DIMINISHING SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE.
GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5-9 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS LIKELY...LOW-END CHANCE THAT GALES MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME
OF THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH
SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET.  THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING.  THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  THE TREND OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS WITH THE
SATURDAY EVENING PULSE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS
TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE AT RISK WITH A 1 TO
2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND POSSIBLY
EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 310122
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 920 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE SCT-BKN
FROM 4-6 KFT THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL TURN OVC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS MAINLY ARND 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 10 THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NE-SE AT 4-5 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KALY 302313
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
713 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE SCT-BKN
FROM 4-6 KFT THIS EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL TURN OVC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS MAINLY ARND 10 KFT.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 10 THIS EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN NE-SE AT 4-5 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBOX 302257
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST SATURDAY AND PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE OR TWO COLD FRONT MAY CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION...HIGHER PRESSURES TO OUR WEST. PATCHY CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION BUT THESE ARE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. NO CHANGES IN
LOGIC FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. SHOULD BE A FAIR WEATHER NIGHT.
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TONIGHTS WEATHER WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
COMPLETELY RADIATING.  ANYWHERE THE WINDS DO CALM THE TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FAIRLY QUICKLY.  OVERALL...EXPECT LOWS IN
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT IT TO FEEL A
BIT COOLER THAN TODAY.  OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPCOMING STORM MOST OF THIS WILL AFFECT THE
WEEKENDS WEATHER SO WILL MOSTLY DISCUSS IT IN THE LONG TERM SECTION.
SHOULD MOSTLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE ONTO THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH GENERATES A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WITH TWO JET STREAMS...A NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND A SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING WITH THE SHORT WAVE.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THE PATTERN THEN TRANSFORMS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW.
REMAINS OF THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK.

COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH THE WEEKEND TROUGH. THESE BUILD TO
NORMAL OR A LITTLE MILDER THAN NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS POINTS TO A
COLDER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND TRENDING TO NORMAL TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

THE GFS...WHILE SERVICEABLE...IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER. FOR THE GRIDS
WE WILL USE A BLEND OF MODEL DATA INCLUDING HPC AND /WHERE POSSIBLE/
THE 12Z ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...

COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY. SUPPORT COMES FROM TWO SETS OF FORCING
MECHANISMS...SUGGESTING A TWO-PART EVENT. BUT FINE-TUNING THE TIMING
OF THESE PARTS IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT. INITIAL FORCING COMES FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN STREAM JET SATURDAY MORNING.
SECOND FORCING COMES FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET SUPPORTING
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WITH EACH SEGMENT IS FOCUSSED ON THE MARITIMES AND MAINE. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FORCING SHOULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE FIRST AND POSSIBLY THE SECOND OF THE SEGMENTS.  WE EXPECT
RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS...LESSER VALUES NORTH AND WEST.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST WATERS. STRONGEST LAND WINDS WILL BE OVER
THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING FARTHER WEST. HAVE FEATURED
45 KNOTS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE INTERIOR.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL PASS US IN PIECES SATURDAY AND LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH WEST TO
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND END ON THE MASS EAST COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
RAIN.  AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN WHICH COULD CHANGE THE LAST
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
TRACE. SOME HIGHLANDS SUCH AS IN THE MONADNOCK COULD PICK UP A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION AT STORM/S END.

DRIER AIR SUNDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER WILL BE
35 TO 40 KNOTS...SO EXPECT NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AT LEAST THE LOWER END
OF THIS RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES
FARTHER AWAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MONDAY
SHOULD BE SUNNY AS THE HIGH  MOVES OVERHEAD. MXING WILL AGAIN BRING
INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER
ARE EXPECTED AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STRONGER
SPEEDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE ROOM FOR A WARM
FRONT TO SWING PAST. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE BEST WARM FRONTAL LIFT WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST SO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN THROUGH THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE ON MIDWEEK WEATHER.  AT LEAST
ONE TROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME. GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT ONE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SHOWING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH PASSING ON THURSDAY.  THE FORECAST
WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND LOW-END CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  RAIN/SHOWERS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WE NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...IFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR AND DRIER WEATHER MOVE IN FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 25-30 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 40-
45 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 30-35 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

MONDAY...VFR. DAYTIME WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
INLAND AND 35 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS
AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.  WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST FRIDAY.  THESE EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS
FROM THE CAROLINAS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
OF THE WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-END GALES ON THE OUTER
WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. LOW POTENTIAL OF STORM FORCE WINDS
ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. GALE
FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED ON MOST WATERS.WAVEWATCH MODEL FORECASTS OF
SEA HEIGHTS ARE LOWER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE HAVE BUMPED
SEAS UP 2-3 FEET WITH 15 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES TO ADDRESS
THIS CONCERN.

SUNDAY...RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS 40-45 KNOTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND SHIFT...THE ROUGH SEAS WILL
MIGRATE FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DIMINISHING SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE.
GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5-9 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS LIKELY...LOW-END CHANCE THAT GALES MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME
OF THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH
SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET.  THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING.  THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  THE TREND OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS WITH THE
SATURDAY EVENING PULSE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS
TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE AT RISK WITH A 1 TO
2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND POSSIBLY
EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 302201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KALY 302201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBOX 302046
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
446 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE UP
THE COAST SATURDAY AND PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE OR TWO COLD FRONT MAY CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TONIGHTS WEATHER WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
COMPLETELY RADIATING.  ANYWHERE THE WINDS DO CALM THE TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FAIRLY QUICKLY.  OVERALL...EXPECT LOWS IN
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT IT TO FEEL A
BIT COOLER THAN TODAY.  OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPCOMING STORM MOST OF THIS WILL AFFECT THE
WEEKENDS WEATHER SO WILL MOSTLY DISCUSS IT IN THE LONG TERM SECTION.
SHOULD MOSTLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE ONTO THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

DEEP AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE IN
BETWEEN. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH GENERATES A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WITH TWO JET STREAMS...A NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND A SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING WITH THE SHORT WAVE.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST DURING THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THE PATTERN THEN TRANSFORMS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW.
REMAINS OF THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK.

COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH THE WEEKEND TROUGH. THESE BUILD TO
NORMAL OR A LITTLE MILDER THAN NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. THIS POINTS TO A
COLDER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND TRENDING TO NORMAL TEMPS BY MIDWEEK.

THE GFS...WHILE SERVICEABLE...IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER. FOR THE GRIDS
WE WILL USE A BLEND OF MODEL DATA INCLUDING HPC AND /WHERE POSSIBLE/
THE 12Z ECMWF.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...

COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY. SUPPORT COMES FROM TWO SETS OF FORCING
MECHANISMS...SUGGESTING A TWO-PART EVENT. BUT FINE-TUNING THE TIMING
OF THESE PARTS IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT. INITIAL FORCING COMES FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN STREAM JET SATURDAY MORNING.
SECOND FORCING COMES FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET SUPPORTING
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WITH EACH SEGMENT IS FOCUSSED ON THE MARITIMES AND MAINE. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FORCING SHOULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE FIRST AND POSSIBLY THE SECOND OF THE SEGMENTS.  WE EXPECT
RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS...LESSER VALUES NORTH AND WEST.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST WATERS. STRONGEST LAND WINDS WILL BE OVER
THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING FARTHER WEST. HAVE FEATURED
45 KNOTS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE INTERIOR.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL PASS US IN PIECES SATURDAY AND LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS NOTED ABOVE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH WEST TO
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND END ON THE MASS EAST COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
RAIN.  AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN WHICH COULD CHANGE THE LAST
SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
TRACE. SOME HIGHLANDS SUCH AS IN THE MONADNOCK COULD PICK UP A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION AT STORM/S END.

DRIER AIR SUNDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 850 MB. WINDS IN THIS LAYER WILL BE
35 TO 40 KNOTS...SO EXPECT NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AT LEAST THE LOWER END
OF THIS RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES
FARTHER AWAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MONDAY
SHOULD BE SUNNY AS THE HIGH  MOVES OVERHEAD. MXING WILL AGAIN BRING
INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER
ARE EXPECTED AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STRONGER
SPEEDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAKE ROOM FOR A WARM
FRONT TO SWING PAST. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE BEST WARM FRONTAL LIFT WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST SO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN THROUGH THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE ON MIDWEEK WEATHER.  AT LEAST
ONE TROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME. GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT ONE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SHOWING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH PASSING ON THURSDAY.  THE FORECAST
WILL HAVE CLOUDS AND LOW-END CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

18Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  RAIN/SHOWERS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WE NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...IFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR AND DRIER WEATHER MOVE IN FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY GUSTING 30-40 KNOTS
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 25-30 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 40-
45 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS AND 30-35 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

MONDAY...VFR. DAYTIME WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
INLAND AND 35 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS
AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.  WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST FRIDAY.  THESE EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS
FROM THE CAROLINAS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
OF THE WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-END GALES ON THE OUTER
WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. LOW POTENTIAL OF STORM FORCE WINDS
ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. GALE
FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED ON MOST WATERS.WAVEWATCH MODEL FORECASTS OF
SEA HEIGHTS ARE LOWER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE HAVE BUMPED
SEAS UP 2-3 FEET WITH 15 FOOT SEAS DEVELOPING EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES TO ADDRESS
THIS CONCERN.

SUNDAY...RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS 40-45 KNOTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WIND SHIFT...THE ROUGH SEAS WILL
MIGRATE FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH DIMINISHING SEAS CLOSER TO SHORE.
GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MONDAY... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5-9 FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS LIKELY...LOW-END CHANCE THAT GALES MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME
OF THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH
SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET.  THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING.  THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  THE TREND OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS WITH THE
SATURDAY EVENING PULSE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS
TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE AT RISK WITH A 1 TO
2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND POSSIBLY
EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301935
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
335 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A
GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TONIGHTS WEATHER WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
COMPLETELY RADIATING.  ANYWHERE THE WINDS DO CALM THE TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FAIRLY QUICKLY.  OVERALL...EXPECT LOWS IN
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT IT TO FEEL A
BIT COOLER THAN TODAY.  OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPCOMING STORM MOST OF THIS WILL AFFECT THE
WEEKENDS WEATHER SO WILL MOSTLY DISCUSS IT IN THE LONG TERM SECTION.
SHOULD MOSTLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...RAIN
AND/OR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE ONTO THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GLANCING BLOW MOST LIKELY SAT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT GREATER IMPACT
  STILL POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...30/00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THEIR HANDLING OF A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM THIS
WEEKEND. THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST A CLOSER
TRACK TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT VERY
LIKELY. THE PREDOMINANT SIGNAL IS FOR A TRACK REMAINING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO
SMOOTH OVER AS MANY MINOR DIFFERENCES AS POSSIBLE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS MODERATE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THERE
ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN THIS STORM/S FORMATION.
INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR
EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE PRIMARY STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING...A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES. MOST OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHICH
WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MINOR WOBBLES IN THE TRACK...COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THIS EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF THIS TRACK SHIFTS WEST
AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...BASED ON THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY. REGARDLESS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED OUR REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...
STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...WE
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND
WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES
STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A
SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

18Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  RAIN/SHOWERS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WE NEAR
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO
BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS
AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.  WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST FRIDAY.  THESE EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS
FROM THE CAROLINAS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
OF THE WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THOUGH TUESDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
 INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
 MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH IMPACT MARINE
EVENT EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
IN FACT...MODERATE RISK FOR A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
WITH 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH
SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET.  THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING.  THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  THE TREND OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS WITH THE
SATURDAY EVENING PULSE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS
TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE AT RISK WITH A 1 TO
2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND POSSIBLY
EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 301933
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
333 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF UPSTATE NEW YORK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW HAS RESULTED IN
SOME CLEARING. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH AT
LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
IN MOST AREAS.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST.

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KBOX 301920
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
320 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A
GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE SKY FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.  OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRES APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS H5 SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. H85 TEMPS DO FALL DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE N.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER...TOPPING OFF IN THE
50S. EXPECT LIGHT W-NW WINDS WITH A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
EXPECT THE WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO BUILD E ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL VEER TO
NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

NOTING LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS A DIGGING H5
SHORT WAVE DIVES SE. SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE...SO COULD
SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING IN ALONG WITH A GENERAL
LIGHT WIND IN PLACE...EXPECT LOWS FALLING BACK TO THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...RANGING TO LOWER-MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...
MAJOR DIGGING H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WHICH SETS UP AN
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...AT
THE SURFACE...GENERAL LIGHT FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH E-NE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO FRESHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE S COAST. BIG
QUESTION AT THIS POINT...WHERE LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC
OR SE U.S. COAST FRI AFTERNOON.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO
THE LOWER-MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINS S OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME OCEAN INDUCED LIGHT SPRINKLES OR EVEN
SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE. DID NOT MENTION THIS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GLANCING BLOW MOST LIKELY SAT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT GREATER IMPACT
  STILL POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...30/00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THEIR HANDLING OF A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM THIS
WEEKEND. THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST A CLOSER
TRACK TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT VERY
LIKELY. THE PREDOMINANT SIGNAL IS FOR A TRACK REMAINING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO
SMOOTH OVER AS MANY MINOR DIFFERENCES AS POSSIBLE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS MODERATE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THERE
ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN THIS STORM/S FORMATION.
INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR
EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE PRIMARY STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING...A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES. MOST OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHICH
WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MINOR WOBBLES IN THE TRACK...COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THIS EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF THIS TRACK SHIFTS WEST
AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...BASED ON THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY. REGARDLESS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED OUR REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...
STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...WE
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND
WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES
STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A
SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

TODAY...VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 4-5KFT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR-IFR ACROSS SW NH INTO NW MA LATE. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE DURING DAY...INCREASING
ALONG COAST TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE IN DAY.
MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG E COAST TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ALONG S COAST POSSIBLE LATE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT ONSHORE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO
BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS E
AND S OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 3 FT.

FRIDAY...WINDS BECOME E-NE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE TO 3 FT ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
 INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
 MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH IMPACT MARINE
EVENT EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
IN FACT...MODERATE RISK FOR A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
WITH 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SEAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH
SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR DURING BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND WHEN AND HOW STRONG THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL GET.  THE MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TWO PULSES OF
WIND WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE FIRST ONE APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SECOND ONE SUNDAY MORNING.  THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FEET
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  THE TREND OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS WITH THE
SATURDAY EVENING PULSE.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS
TREND...BUT STILL FEEL BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE AT RISK WITH A 1 TO
2 FOOT STORM SURGE.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN APPEAR TO BE THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE
COD...SUCH AS SANDWICH...BARNSTABLE...DENNIS...BREWSTER AND POSSIBLY
EASTHAM. OTHER TYPICAL HOT SPOTS WILL BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KALY 301748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KALY 301748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KALY 301705
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
105 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KALY 301705
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
105 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1 PM... 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING A MOIST
LAYER BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB. RESULT IS A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS COVERING MOST OF NY STATE. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING HAS
RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING IN THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
IN THE VALLEY AND FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 50S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY... AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KALY 301452
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1052 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBOX 301355
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
955 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A
GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE SKY FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.  OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRES APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS H5 SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. H85 TEMPS DO FALL DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE N.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER...TOPPING OFF IN THE
50S. EXPECT LIGHT W-NW WINDS WITH A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
EXPECT THE WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO BUILD E ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL VEER TO
NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

NOTING LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS A DIGGING H5
SHORT WAVE DIVES SE. SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE...SO COULD
SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING IN ALONG WITH A GENERAL
LIGHT WIND IN PLACE...EXPECT LOWS FALLING BACK TO THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...RANGING TO LOWER-MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...
MAJOR DIGGING H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WHICH SETS UP AN
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...AT
THE SURFACE...GENERAL LIGHT FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH E-NE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO FRESHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE S COAST. BIG
QUESTION AT THIS POINT...WHERE LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC
OR SE U.S. COAST FRI AFTERNOON.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO
THE LOWER-MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINS S OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME OCEAN INDUCED LIGHT SPRINKLES OR EVEN
SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE. DID NOT MENTION THIS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GLANCING BLOW MOST LIKELY SAT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT GREATER IMPACT
  STILL POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...30/00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THEIR HANDLING OF A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM THIS
WEEKEND. THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST A CLOSER
TRACK TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT VERY
LIKELY. THE PREDOMINANT SIGNAL IS FOR A TRACK REMAINING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO
SMOOTH OVER AS MANY MINOR DIFFERENCES AS POSSIBLE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS MODERATE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THERE
ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN THIS STORM/S FORMATION.
INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR
EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE PRIMARY STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING...A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES. MOST OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHICH
WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MINOR WOBBLES IN THE TRACK...COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THIS EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF THIS TRACK SHIFTS WEST
AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...BASED ON THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY. REGARDLESS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED OUR REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...
STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...WE
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND
WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES
STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A
SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

TODAY...VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 4-5KFT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR-IFR ACROSS SW NH INTO NW MA LATE. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE DURING DAY...INCREASING
ALONG COAST TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE IN DAY.
MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG E COAST TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ALONG S COAST POSSIBLE LATE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT ONSHORE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO
BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS E
AND S OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 3 FT.

FRIDAY...WINDS BECOME E-NE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE TO 3 FT ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
 INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
 MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH IMPACT MARINE
EVENT EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
IN FACT...MODERATE RISK FOR A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
WITH 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. THE CONCERN IS FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT
SEAS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
KNOTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.
SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...
HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.
AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER
THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301146
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
746 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A
GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
745 AM UPDATE...

JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKER THAN WEDNESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRES APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS H5 SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. H85 TEMPS DO FALL DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE N.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER...TOPPING OFF IN THE
50S. EXPECT LIGHT W-NW WINDS WITH A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
EXPECT THE WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO BUILD E ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL VEER TO
NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

NOTING LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS A DIGGING H5
SHORT WAVE DIVES SE. SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE...SO COULD
SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING IN ALONG WITH A GENERAL
LIGHT WIND IN PLACE...EXPECT LOWS FALLING BACK TO THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...RANGING TO LOWER-MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...
MAJOR DIGGING H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WHICH SETS UP AN
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...AT
THE SURFACE...GENERAL LIGHT FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH E-NE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO FRESHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE S COAST. BIG
QUESTION AT THIS POINT...WHERE LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC
OR SE U.S. COAST FRI AFTERNOON.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO
THE LOWER-MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINS S OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME OCEAN INDUCED LIGHT SPRINKLES OR EVEN
SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE. DID NOT MENTION THIS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GLANCING BLOW MOST LIKELY SAT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT GREATER IMPACT
  STILL POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...30/00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THEIR HANDLING OF A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM THIS
WEEKEND. THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST A CLOSER
TRACK TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT VERY
LIKELY. THE PREDOMINANT SIGNAL IS FOR A TRACK REMAINING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO
SMOOTH OVER AS MANY MINOR DIFFERENCES AS POSSIBLE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS MODERATE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THERE
ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN THIS STORM/S FORMATION.
INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR
EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE PRIMARY STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING...A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES. MOST OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHICH
WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MINOR WOBBLES IN THE TRACK...COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THIS EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF THIS TRACK SHIFTS WEST
AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...BASED ON THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY. REGARDLESS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED OUR REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...
STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...WE
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND
WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES
STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A
SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

TODAY...MVFR-IFR VSBYS IMPROVE BY 13Z ACROSS CT VALLEY...
OTHERWISE VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 4-5KFT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR-IFR ACROSS SW NH INTO NW MA LATE. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE DURING DAY...INCREASING
ALONG COAST TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE IN DAY.
MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG E COAST TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ALONG S COAST POSSIBLE LATE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT ONSHORE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO
BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS E
AND S OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 3 FT.

FRIDAY...WINDS BECOME E-NE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE TO 3 FT ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
 INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
 MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH IMPACT MARINE
EVENT EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
IN FACT...MODERATE RISK FOR A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
WITH 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. THE CONCERN IS FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT
SEAS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
KNOTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.
SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...
HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.
AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER
THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 301113
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
713 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 301042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS














000
FXUS61 KALY 301042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS














000
FXUS61 KBOX 300847
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
447 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A
GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

LAST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET AT
08Z...THOUGH NOTING SOME MORE SHOWERS LINGERING WELL S OF LONG
ISLAND THAT MIGHT CLIP NANTUCKET THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE KEPT A
DRY FORECAST GOING THERE...FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG...WITH VSBYS
LOCALLY LOWERED TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS...ACROSS THE CT VALLEY WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRES APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS H5 SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. H85 TEMPS DO FALL DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE N.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER...TOPPING OFF IN THE
50S. EXPECT LIGHT W-NW WINDS WITH A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...
EXPECT THE WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO BUILD E ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL VEER TO
NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

NOTING LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS A DIGGING H5
SHORT WAVE DIVES SE. SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE...SO COULD
SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING IN ALONG WITH A GENERAL
LIGHT WIND IN PLACE...EXPECT LOWS FALLING BACK TO THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...RANGING TO LOWER-MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...
MAJOR DIGGING H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WHICH SETS UP AN
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...AT
THE SURFACE...GENERAL LIGHT FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH E-NE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO FRESHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE S COAST. BIG
QUESTION AT THIS POINT...WHERE LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC
OR SE U.S. COAST FRI AFTERNOON.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO
THE LOWER-MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINS S OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME OCEAN INDUCED LIGHT SPRINKLES OR EVEN
SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE. DID NOT MENTION THIS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GLANCING BLOW MOST LIKELY SAT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT GREATER IMPACT
  STILL POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...
30/00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THEIR
HANDLING OF A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST A CLOSER TRACK TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT VERY LIKELY. THE PREDOMINANT
SIGNAL IS FOR A TRACK REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER AS MANY
MINOR DIFFERENCES AS POSSIBLE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS MODERATE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THERE
ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN THIS STORM/S FORMATION.
INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR
EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE PRIMARY STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING...
A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHICH WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER SHARP WESTERN
EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MINOR WOBBLES IN THE
TRACK...COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THIS EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF THIS TRACK SHIFTS WEST
AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TRACK...
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY. REGARDLESS...MOST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED OUR REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...
STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...WE
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND
WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES
STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A
SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG ACROSS CT VALLEY OF SW NH AND
W MA WITH LOCAL IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT NORMALLY PRONE AREAS
THROUGH 12Z. LOW PROB OF LOCAL MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS
INTERIOR E MA INTO NE CT BETWEEN 08Z-12Z.

TODAY...MVFR-IFR VSBYS IMPROVE BY 14Z ACROSS CT VALLEY...
OTHERWISE VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 4-5KFT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR-IFR ACROSS SW NH INTO NW MA LATE. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE DURING DAY...INCREASING
ALONG COAST TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE IN DAY.
MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG E COAST TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ALONG S COAST POSSIBLE LATE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT ONSHORE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO
BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...LEFTOVER 5-6 FT SEAS AND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TODAY...LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS E AND S OF CAPE COD
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 3 FT.

FRIDAY...WINDS BECOME E-NE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE TO 3 FT ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
 INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
 MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH IMPACT MARINE
EVENT EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
IN FACT... MODERATE RISK FOR A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
WITH 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. THE CONCERN IS FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT
SEAS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
KNOTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.
SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...
HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.
AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER
THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BELK




000
FXUS61 KALY 300841
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AREAS.
THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS











000
FXUS61 KBOX 300705
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
DELIVER A GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

210 AM UPDATE...

LINE OF SHOWERS TENDING TO DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SE ACROSS
THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET AT 06Z. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER
THOSE AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE LINE FINALLY PUSHES
E. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS HAVE STEADILY PUSHED E. HOWEVER...WITH THE
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN CLOSE TO THE
LOWERING DEWPTS ACROSS S NH AND DOWN THE CT VALLEY ACROSS W MA. A
FEW SPOTS HAVE VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM IN THE USUAL SUSPECTS /KEEN AND
KORE/. MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS RI/SE MA BUT SHOULD PUSH
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED AND CALM WINDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER CT
VALLEY...RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 50S WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN ON THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AT 06Z. LIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGH 12Z. DEWPTS WILL TAKE THEIR TIME FALLING
WITH THE LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT. MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO LOWER DEWPTS A BIT. SHORT RANGE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOWER DEWPTS ALREADY IN THE CT VALLEY EXCEPT FOR SOME
OF THE NEAR TERM BIAS CORRECTED DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS. A SPOT
SHOWER AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
DRY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME.  ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.  THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION. INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD.  IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.  WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.

PTYPE AND TIMING...

A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES.  INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...

STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP.  EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES.  ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG ACROSS CT VALLEY OF SW NH AND
W MA WITH LOCAL IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT NORMALLY PRONE AREAS
THROUGH 12Z. LOW PROB OF LOCAL MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS
INTERIOR E MA INTO NE CT BETWEEN 08Z-12Z.

TODAY...MVFR-IFR VSBYS IMPROVE BY 14Z ACROSS CT VALLEY...OTHERWISE
VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 4-5KFT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR-IFR ACROSS SW NH INTO NW MA LATE. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE DURING DAY...INCREASING
ALONG COAST TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE IN DAY.
MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG E COAST TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ALONG S COAST POSSIBLE LATE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT ONSHORE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED.  STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...LEFTOVER 5-6 FT SEAS AND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TODAY...LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS E AND S OF CAPE COD
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 3 FT.

FRIDAY...WINDS BECOME E-NE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE TO 3 FT ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
 SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED.  WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN.  IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT
TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT.  A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SAT INTO SUN.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  THE CONCERN IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH
TIDE ON SUNDAY.  IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.  SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS
WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS
SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.  AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON
EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 300559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER
AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM...HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
TEMP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE.
OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 300534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER
AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM...HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
TEMP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE.
OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE
THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH 15Z-20Z AFT WHICH SKIES WILL BECOME
SCT035. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FIRST AT KPOU AND LAST AT KPSF.
WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING
TO 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...GJM/FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS











000
FXUS61 KBOX 300310
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1110 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
DELIVER A GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

1040 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SHIFT STEADILY E AS SEEN ON LATEST
NE 88D REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. THE COLD FRONT IS ACTUALLY JUST E OF
CAPE COD AT 02Z...AS THE DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED AND WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED TO LIGHT N-NW ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPE EXCEPT NANTUCKET
WHICH SHOULD SHIFT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

BAND OF SHOWERS TENDING TO BREAK APART ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WILL STILL SEE SCT SHOWERS ACROSS E MA/S RI AS
WELL AS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO...THEN
THE SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE. DEWPTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING
STEADILY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NOTING SAME TREND ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES INTO SW NH...AND WILL FILTER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

ALSO NOTING BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WORKING E OUT OF SW NH/W MA ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE WHICH SHOULD ALSO PUSH E OVERNIGHT.

HAVE UPDATED POPS TO PUSH PRECIP OFFSHORE A BIT FASTER AS
SUGGESTED BY RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE SKY COVER. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE BUT DID BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS E MA/RI INTO S CENTRAL NH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE DEWPTS DROP ALLOWING FOR DRIER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS. A SPOT
SHOWER AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
DRY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME.  ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.  THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION. INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD.  IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.  WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.

PTYPE AND TIMING...

A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES.  INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...

STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP.  EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES.  ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. BAND
OF SHOWERS ACROSS E MA WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY 04Z-06Z. LOW PROB OF
LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN BRIEF PATCHY FOG THROUGH 06Z-08Z ACROSS E
MA/RI/S CENTRAL NH TERMINALS BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START BUT
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT.  A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED.  STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ALREADY VEERING TO W-NW ACROSS NEAR SHORE WATERS AT 03Z.
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN...WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT ON THE OUTER WATERS
AND DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...UP TO 5-6 FT...BUT WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS SEAS WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.

LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
 SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN
EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
THOUGH TO KEEP WINDS SPEEDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED.  WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN.  IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT
TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT.  A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SAT INTO SUN.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  THE CONCERN IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH
TIDE ON SUNDAY.  IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.  SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS
WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS
SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.  AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON
EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 300125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 923 PM EDT...THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PICKING UP SOME
MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE
THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH 15Z-20Z AFT WHICH SKIES WILL BECOME SCT035.
THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FIRST AT KPOU AND LAST AT KPSF.
WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT
INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 292337
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
737 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS CONCLUDE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A GLANCING
BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

735 PM UPDATE...

THE COLD HAS NOW PROGRESSED TO NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL.  BAND OF
RAIN SHOWERS WAS LAGGING A BIT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME MID LEVEL LIFT. THE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT
LAST MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO IN A GIVEN LOCATION...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL.  THE SHOWERS WERE NOW
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MA/NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND WILL REACH THE I-
95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 830 AND 10 PM.  THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE
EXITING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER 2 OR 3 AM.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO LESS
THAN 0.15 INCHES.

MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LIKELY
BLANKET OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MILD TOWARDS SHORES WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-40S.
ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED W TO E AS W-WINDS DRIVE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. COOLEST CONDITIONS N AND W YET
WINDS /MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.
MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS SOEM OF THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

AN ENLONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS.  A SPOT SHOWER AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY.  HIGHS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME.  ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.  THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION.  INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ENLONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD.  IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.  WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.

PTYPE AND TIMING...

A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES.  INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...

STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP.  EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES.  ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  SHOULD SEE ANY LEFT
OVER LOW CLOUDS SCOUR OUT BY 3Z.  IN ADDITION...A BAND OF SHOWERS
WAS WORKING THROUGH INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING.  THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG IN A GIVEN LOCATION AND
EXIT THE CAPE/NANTUCKET BY 6 OR 7Z.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START BUT
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT.  A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED.  STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-
CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND
ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT... LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
  SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN
EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
THOUGH TO KEEP WINDS SPEEDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED.  WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN.  IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT
TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT.  A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SAT INTO SUN.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  THE CONCERN IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH
TIDE ON SUNDAY.  IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.  SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS
WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS
SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.  AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON
EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KALY 292308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
708 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT..A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT TOOK ON ANAFRONT
CHARACTERISTICS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL REMAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL END. ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE
THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH 15Z-20Z AFT WHICH SKIES WILL BECOME SCT035.
THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FIRST AT KPOU AND LAST AT KPSF.
WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT
INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 292228
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
628 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT..A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT TOOK ON ANAFRONT
CHARACTERISTICS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL REMAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL END. ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22/23Z BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF
FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT BECOME WESTERLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
AT KPOU WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 292211
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
611 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS CONCLUDE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A GLANCING
BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

610 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WAS NOW LOCATED ACROSS COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND INTO
SOUTHEAST MA.  THERE ALSO WAS CURRENTLY A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH AND INTO WESTERN MA EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE
SHOWERS WERE ACTUALLY A BIT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHERE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WAS PROVIDING SOME MID LEVEL LIFT.  THIS BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL NOT LAST MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  THE
SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM...FINALLY
EXITING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER 2 OR 3 AM.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY A TRACE TO LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH.

MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LIKELY
BLANKET OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MILD TOWARDS SHORES WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-40S.
ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED W TO E AS W-WINDS DRIVE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. COOLEST CONDITIONS N AND W YET
WINDS /MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

AN ENLONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS.  A SPOT SHOWER AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY.  HIGHS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME.  ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.  THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION.  INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ENLONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD.  IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.  WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.

PTYPE AND TIMING...

A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES.  INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...

STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP.  EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES.  ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  SHOULD SEE ANY LEFT
OVER LOW CLOUDS SCOUR OUT BY 3Z.  IN ADDITION...A BAND OF SHOWERS
WAS WORKING THROUGH INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING.  THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG IN A GIVEN LOCATION AND
EXIT THE CAPE/NANTUCKET BY 6 OR 7Z.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START BUT
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT.  A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED.  STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-
CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND
ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT... LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
  SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN
EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
THOUGH TO KEEP WINDS SPEEDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED.  WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN.  IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT
TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT.  A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SAT INTO SUN.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  THE CONCERN IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH
TIDE ON SUNDAY.  IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.  SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS
WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS
SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.  AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON
EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KALY 292011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
411 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT..A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED JUST EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT HAS TAKEN ON
ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL
REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION AND CATSKILLS ON EASTWARD. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
END BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW
YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22/23Z BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF
FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT BECOME WESTERLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
AT KPOU WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 292010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT..A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED JUST EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT HAS TAKEN ON
ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL
REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION AND CATSKILLS ON EASTWARD. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
END BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW
YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22/23Z BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF
FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT BECOME WESTERLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
AT KPOU WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 292006
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS CONCLUDE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A GLANCING
BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
230 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH SHOWERY WEATHER AND
THICKER CLOUDS IN TOW. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WARM BENEATH THE
THIN VEIL OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SW-FLOW CONTINUES TO GUST
IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THIS
EVENING IS THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE
THAT BEING THE STRETCHED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WITH CONDITIONS
WARMING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BENEATH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ECHO OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS THOUGHTS CONCERNING THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS SE NEW
ENGLAND. NOTHING SEVERE.

ASIDE...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING BENEATH FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FEEL THE HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION...ALBEIT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES.
COULD SEE THE LINE OF SHOWERS BECOME DIFFUSE WITH ITS TRACK TO THE
S AND E. SPECULATE THIS TO BE CONSEQUENTIAL OF STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND PERHAPS THE COLD FRONT BECOMING TOO SEPARATED FROM ITS
PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO PERHAPS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE TOWARDS A BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXIS ACTIVITY ERUPTS
THAT USURPS ACTIVITY TO THE W. ALL SORTS OF FACTORS...BUT ASIDE
NOT A BIG DEAL BUT JUST A SWEEPING WET-WEATHER MAKER.

ALREADY 72-DEGREES HERE AT THE TAUNTON WFO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE MID-70S FOR S/SE NEW ENGLAND. A BLEND
OF THE RAP APPEARS GOOD ENOUGH WITH REGARDS TO 2M TEMPERATURES
THOUGH NOT HANDLING THE WARM-FRONT ALL THAT WELL.

TONIGHT...

MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGER REARWARD ACROSS S- AND
E-PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

LIKELY BLANKET OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS MILD TOWARDS SHORES WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-40S.
ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED W TO E AS W-WINDS DRIVE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. COOLEST CONDITIONS N AND W YET
WINDS /MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

AN ENLONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS.  A SPOT SHOWER AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY.  HIGHS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME.  ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.  THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION.  INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ENLONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD.  IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.  WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.

PTYPE AND TIMING...

A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES.  INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...

STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP.  EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES.  ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR WITH LINE OF -RA EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WHICH SW-WINDS PREVAIL
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. AN ISOLATED
TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PREVAIL IN TAF.

TONIGHT...WINDS BACK W BEHIND THE LINE...DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR.
LOW-END VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -RA LINGER OVER S AND E TERMINALS INTO
MIDNIGHT...IMPROVING AFTER AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START BUT
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT.  A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED.  STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS STILL AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS AND WILL REMAIN SO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE
SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT
W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
  SUNDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS***

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN
EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
THOUGH TO KEEP WINDS SPEEDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED.  WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN.  IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.  EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT
MARINE EVENT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT HIGH LATE SAT INTO SUN...BUT THERE
IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.  THE CONCERN
IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY.  IF WE END UP
REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
EROSION.  SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR.  AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS
OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE
CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
242 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS CONCLUDE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS
WILL PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

230 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH SHOWERY WEATHER AND
THICKER CLOUDS IN TOW. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WARM BENEATH THE
THIN VEIL OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SW-FLOW CONTINUES TO GUST
IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THIS
EVENING IS THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE
THAT BEING THE STRETCHED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WITH CONDITIONS
WARMING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BENEATH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ECHO OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS THOUGHTS CONCERNING THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS SE NEW
ENGLAND. NOTHING SEVERE.

ASIDE...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING BENEATH FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FEEL THE HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION...ALBEIT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES.
COULD SEE THE LINE OF SHOWERS BECOME DIFFUSE WITH ITS TRACK TO THE
S AND E. SPECULATE THIS TO BE CONSEQUENTIAL OF STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND PERHAPS THE COLD FRONT BECOMING TOO SEPARATED FROM ITS
PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO PERHAPS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE TOWARDS A BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXIS ACTIVITY ERUPTS
THAT USURPS ACTIVITY TO THE W. ALL SORTS OF FACTORS...BUT ASIDE
NOT A BIG DEAL BUT JUST A SWEEPING WET-WEATHER MAKER.

ALREADY 72-DEGREES HERE AT THE TAUNTON WFO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE MID-70S FOR S/SE NEW ENGLAND. A BLEND
OF THE RAP APPEARS GOOD ENOUGH WITH REGARDS TO 2M TEMPERATURES
THOUGH NOT HANDLING THE WARM-FRONT ALL THAT WELL.

TONIGHT...

MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGER REARWARD ACROSS S- AND
E-PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

LIKELY BLANKET OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS MILD TOWARDS SHORES WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-40S.
ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED W TO E AS W-WINDS DRIVE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. COOLEST CONDITIONS N AND W YET
WINDS /MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*** LONG-TERM DISCUSSION FROM OVERNIGHT SHIFT ***
*** FORECAST DISCUSSION STILL UNDER DEVELOPMENT ***

BIG PICTURE...

29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.

THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.

CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR WITH LINE OF -RA EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WHICH SW-WINDS PREVAIL
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. AN ISOLATED
TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PREVAIL IN TAF.

TONIGHT...WINDS BACK W BEHIND THE LINE...DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR.
LOW-END VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -RA LINGER OVER S AND E TERMINALS INTO
MIDNIGHT...IMPROVING AFTER AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS STILL AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS AND WILL REMAIN SO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE
SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT
W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTHWEST
WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS.
SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 291733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 133 PM EDT...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE AREA IS NOW BEHIND THE SFC COLD
FRONT...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SFC
BOUNDARY...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND END BY THE
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOUDY
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WAY BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN
NY/WESTERN PA.

TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR MAX VALUES IN MOST LOCATIONS DUE
TO THE BOUNDARY ALREADY CROSSING...AND TEMPS LOOK TO HOLD STEADY
AND THEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION BECOMES UNDERWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 40 AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD GET SOME MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AND HAVE FORECAST 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS
THE GENERAL MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BE
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...AND MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE...DIGGING...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SW FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.  IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
U30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS.  SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC GUIDANCE...THE H500 CUTOFF MOVE NORTHEAST
OF ERN NC WITH A SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN... AS
THE OCEANIC STORM DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TOO FAR FOR A MAJOR IMPACT IN
THE ALY FCST AREA.  IT WILL BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
SETS UP OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE IMPRESSIVE OCEAN
CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -5C TO -10C BY  DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...COLD...BLUSTERY...AND DRY WX IS THE TREND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  WIDESPREAD 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO
AROUND 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22/23Z BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF
FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT BECOME WESTERLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
AT KPOU WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND THEN EXIT THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

THE RH VALUES WILL 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 80
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE
SHOWERS TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KBOX 291724
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
124 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY...SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL
PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

130 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH SHOWERY WEATHER AND
THICKER CLOUDS IN TOW. FOG HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED BENEATH THE THIN
VEIL OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AS ITS TRANSPARENCY HAS ALLOWED
CONDITIONS TO WARM RESULTING IN THE WARM-FRONT TO PUSH N INTO NH
AND ME...AIDED BY SW-FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO GUST IN EXCESS OF 25
MPH ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THIS
EVENING IS THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE
THAT BEING THE STRETCHED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WITH CONDITIONS
WARMING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BENEATH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ECHO THE OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS THOUGHTS CONCERNING
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION. NOTHING SEVERE.

ASIDE...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING BENEATH FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FEEL THE HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION...ALBEIT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES.
COULD SEE THE LINE OF SHOWERS BECOME DIFFUSE WITH ITS TRACK TO THE
S AND E. SPECULATE THIS TO BE CONSEQUENTIAL OF STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND PERHAPS THE COLD FRONT BECOMING TOO SEPARATED FROM ITS
PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO PERHAPS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE TOWARDS A BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXIS ACTIVITY ERUPTS
THAT USURPS ACTIVITY TO THE W. ALL SORTS OF FACTORS...BUT ASIDE
NOT A BIG DEAL BUT JUST A SWEEPING WET-WEATHER MAKER.

ALREADY 72-DEGREES HERE AT THE TAUNTON WFO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE MID-70S FOR SE NEW ENGLAND. A BLEND OF
THE HRRR/RAP APPEARS SPOT-ON WITH REGARDS TO 2M TEMPERATURES
THOUGH NOT HANDLING THE WARM-FRONT ALL THAT WELL...AND HENCE THE
HEADACHES WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...
THE H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES E...AND APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
BY EARLY THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO
ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT. H85 TEMPS
WILL STEADILY DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. BY
SUNRISE...H85 TEMPS FALL TO -2C ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO +2C ACROSS
THE CAPE. WHILE NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXPECT THEM TO STIR
ENOUGH NOT TOO ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING WHERE SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WHILE THE H5 TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE
50S...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BUT A GOOD 15 DEGREES OR SO LOWER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.

THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.

CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR WITH LINE OF -RA EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WHICH SW-WINDS PREVAIL
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. AN ISOLATED
TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PREVAIL IN TAF.

TONIGHT...WINDS BACK W BEHIND THE LINE...DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR.
LOW-END VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -RA LINGER OVER S AND E TERMINALS INTO
MIDNIGHT...IMPROVING AFTER AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS LOW
LEVEL SW JET MOVES ACROSS TODAY. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT PASSES A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

WINDS SHIFT TO W AND TEND TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EARLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL
LINGER AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

THURSDAY...LIGHT NW WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS EARLY SHOULD SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291420
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY...SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL
PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

COLD FRONT PRESENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIA.
WARM-FRONT STALLED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
TO THE N. FOG HAS SLOWLY LIFTED OVER N MA AND S NH AND EXPECT A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THUS HAVE DROPPED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE...SW-FLOW OF GULF-MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD ADVECTING
PWATS UP TO 1.25-INCHES. UNDERGOING AT LEAST SOME LEVEL OF DEEP-
LAYER ASCENT AND LIFT BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET...
ASIDE FROM BETTER DYNAMICS WELL N...A LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
ALONG AND TO THE REAR OF THE COLD FRONT WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. FEEL THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SE AND
OFFSHORE. THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRETTY STEEP WHEREVER IT
WARMS ABOVE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE /ABOVE 70-DEGREES/. THUS
WILL HOLD WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE MA AND RI...
ALBEIT BRIEF AS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH STEEP ENVIRONMENTAL
PROFILE PUSHES NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

EXPECT THAT AS THIS LINE PUSHES S AND E...SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE DIFFUSE AS A RESULT OF STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND LESSENING INSTABILITY.

MILD THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME CLOUD BREAKS. MAIN
FOCUS OF WARMER CONDITIONS IS ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND WHERE HIGHS INTO
THE LOW-70S ARE POSSIBLE. COULD GET WARMER. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES. BLUSTERY SW-FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER
S/SE-COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...
THE H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES E...AND APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
BY EARLY THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO
ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT. H85 TEMPS
WILL STEADILY DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. BY
SUNRISE...H85 TEMPS FALL TO -2C ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO +2C ACROSS
THE CAPE. WHILE NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXPECT THEM TO STIR
ENOUGH NOT TOO ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING WHERE SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WHILE THE H5 TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE
50S...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BUT A GOOD 15 DEGREES OR SO LOWER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.

THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.

CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCAL
PERIODS OF LIFR IN DENSE FOG...GENERALLY ACROSS NE MA/S CENTRAL
NH. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS APPROACH SW NH/NW MA AFTER
09Z.

TODAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS. LOW PROB
FOR ISOLD TSTM OR TWO FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE DAY NEAR OR
AHEAD OF FRONT. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ACROSS SW
NH/W MA AFTER 18Z AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS E.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS THROUGH 03Z-05Z...THEN IMPROVING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
COAST. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS...THEN SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...VFR. PATCHY DIURNAL CLOUDS AT 4-5KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS LOW
LEVEL SW JET MOVES ACROSS TODAY. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT PASSES A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

WINDS SHIFT TO W AND TEND TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EARLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL
LINGER AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

THURSDAY...LIGHT NW WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS EARLY SHOULD SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 291357
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
957 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BAND OF SHOWERS STILL GRADUALLY BUILDING EAST...BUT CLOUDY SKY
WELL BEHIND THE SHOWERS. COLD ADVECTION SHOUDL SPREAD EAST THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT BEFORE THAT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ANOTHER
COUPLE OF DEGREES...WELL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND A
LITTLE COOLER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 40 AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD GET SOME MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AND HAVE FORECAST 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS
THE GENERAL MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BE
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...AND MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE...DIGGING...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SW FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.  IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
U30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS.  SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC GUIDANCE...THE H500 CUTOFF MOVE NORTHEAST
OF ERN NC WITH A SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN... AS
THE OCEANIC STORM DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TOO FAR FOR A MAJOR IMPACT IN
THE ALY FCST AREA.  IT WILL BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
SETS UP OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE IMPRESSIVE OCEAN
CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -5C TO -10C BY  DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...COLD...BLUSTERY...AND DRY WX IS THE TREND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  WIDESPREAD 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO
AROUND 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE MOVED INTO KGFL AND
KALB BTWN PRIOR TO 12Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AT KPSF BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL 17Z-18Z. A
LONGER SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IS LIKELY THERE. KPOU
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS 14Z...AND THERE
IS THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS BTWN 16Z-18Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT....KEEPING THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL..KPOU...AND KPSF THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO W AT 5-10 KTS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
AT 10 KTS OR LEES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND THEN EXIT THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

THE RH VALUES WILL 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 80
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE
SHOWERS TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291102
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
702 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WAS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS...TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...
WITH THE SHOWERS GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS BAND SHOULD SLOWLY
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND NOT EXIT THE EXTREME SE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE TODAY. HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS ALONG
THIS BAND AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
A LITTLE COOLER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 40 AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD GET SOME MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AND HAVE FORECAST 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS
THE GENERAL MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BE
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...AND MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE...DIGGING...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SW FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.  IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
U30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS.  SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC GUIDANCE...THE H500 CUTOFF MOVE NORTHEAST
OF ERN NC WITH A SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN... AS
THE OCEANIC STORM DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TOO FAR FOR A MAJOR IMPACT IN
THE ALY FCST AREA.  IT WILL BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
SETS UP OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE IMPRESSIVE OCEAN
CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -5C TO -10C BY  DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...COLD...BLUSTERY...AND DRY WX IS THE TREND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  WIDESPREAD 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO
AROUND 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE MOVED INTO KGFL AND
KALB BTWN PRIOR TO 12Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AT KPSF BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL 17Z-18Z. A
LONGER SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IS LIKELY THERE. KPOU
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS 14Z...AND THERE
IS THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS BTWN 16Z-18Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT....KEEPING THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL..KPOU...AND KPSF THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO W AT 5-10 KTS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
AT 10 KTS OR LEES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND THEN EXIT THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

THE RH VALUES WILL 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 80
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE
SHOWERS TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 615 AM...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WAS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS...TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...
WITH THE SHOWERS GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS BAND SHOULD SLOWLY
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND NOT EXIT THE EXTREME SE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE TODAY. HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS ALONG
THIS BAND AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
A LITTLE COOLER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 40 AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD GET SOME MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AND HAVE FORECAST 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS
THE GENERAL MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BE
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...AND MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE...DIGGING...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SW FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.  IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
U30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS.  SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC GUIDANCE...THE H500 CUTOFF MOVE NORTHEAST
OF ERN NC WITH A SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN... AS
THE OCEANIC STORM DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TOO FAR FOR A MAJOR IMPACT IN
THE ALY FCST AREA.  IT WILL BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
SETS UP OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE IMPRESSIVE OCEAN
CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -5C TO -10C BY  DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...COLD...BLUSTERY...AND DRY WX IS THE TREND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  WIDESPREAD 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO
AROUND 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE E-CNTRL NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.  SOME SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO KGFL AND KALB BTWN
08Z-12Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE LOCATIONS. THE SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT KPSF
BTWN 08Z-12Z...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL 17Z-18Z. A LONGER SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IS LIKELY THERE. KPOU WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS 12Z...AND THERE IS THE THREAT OF A FEW
SHOWERS BTWN 15Z-19Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT....KEEPING THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL..KPOU...AND KPSF THIS
MORNING...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AT KALB IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO W AT 5-10 KTS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
AT 10 KTS OR LEES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND THEN EXIT THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

THE RH VALUES WILL 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 80
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE
SHOWERS TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM














000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 615 AM...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WAS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS...TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...
WITH THE SHOWERS GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS BAND SHOULD SLOWLY
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND NOT EXIT THE EXTREME SE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE TODAY. HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS ALONG
THIS BAND AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
A LITTLE COOLER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 40 AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD GET SOME MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AND HAVE FORECAST 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS
THE GENERAL MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BE
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...AND MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE...DIGGING...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SW FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.  IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
U30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS.  SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC GUIDANCE...THE H500 CUTOFF MOVE NORTHEAST
OF ERN NC WITH A SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN... AS
THE OCEANIC STORM DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TOO FAR FOR A MAJOR IMPACT IN
THE ALY FCST AREA.  IT WILL BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
SETS UP OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE IMPRESSIVE OCEAN
CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -5C TO -10C BY  DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...COLD...BLUSTERY...AND DRY WX IS THE TREND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  WIDESPREAD 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO
AROUND 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE E-CNTRL NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.  SOME SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO KGFL AND KALB BTWN
08Z-12Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE LOCATIONS. THE SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT KPSF
BTWN 08Z-12Z...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL 17Z-18Z. A LONGER SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IS LIKELY THERE. KPOU WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS 12Z...AND THERE IS THE THREAT OF A FEW
SHOWERS BTWN 15Z-19Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT....KEEPING THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL..KPOU...AND KPSF THIS
MORNING...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AT KALB IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO W AT 5-10 KTS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
AT 10 KTS OR LEES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND THEN EXIT THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

THE RH VALUES WILL 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 80
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE
SHOWERS TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM














000
FXUS61 KBOX 291033
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
633 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY...SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL
PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS SECTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO S CENTRAL NH...WITH SOME LOCALIZED VSBYS
AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE OR LESS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO
COVER THIS ASPECT OF THE MORNING COMMUTE.

OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO REFLECT
THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. THESE WERE MAINLY TWEAKS TO TIMING OF
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TEMPS AT 08Z REMAINING IN THE LOWER-MID 40S ACROSS INTO N CENTRAL
MA...RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS. APPEARS THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR WHERE
THE FOG HAS FORMED WITH CALM WINDS. PRECIP WILL REMAIN W OF THE
REGION THROUGH SUNRISE...THOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT WORK INTO SW
NH/W MA.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PUSH E...CROSSING THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. EXPECT BAND OF SCT SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS.
QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL GET GOING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT WITH RATHER MILD TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT ALONG WITH GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PRETTY GOOD
0-6KM SHEAR /SW AT 40-50 KT WITH LOW LEVEL JET/...BUT REMAINING
PARAMETERS NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS BETTER INSTABILITY
LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...CAN NOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS FRONT PASSES SO
KEPT MENTION IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS E MA INTO RI WHERE RELATIVELY
BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS.

EXPECT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH E COAST BY EVENING...PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY 00Z THU...SO SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. COULD SEE SCT SHOWERS
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE E AS THE FRONT CROSSES.

ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AIR WORKING IN.
WITH THE LONGER SW WINDS BRINGING THE MILDER AIR ACROSS E MA/RI...
TEMPS MAY REACH CLOSE TO OR ECLIPSE 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES E...AND APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
BY EARLY THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO
ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT. H85 TEMPS
WILL STEADILY DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. BY
SUNRISE...H85 TEMPS FALL TO -2C ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO +2C ACROSS
THE CAPE. WHILE NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXPECT THEM TO STIR
ENOUGH NOT TOO ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING WHERE SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WHILE THE H5 TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE
50S...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BUT A GOOD 15 DEGREES OR SO LOWER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.

THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.

CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCAL
PERIODS OF LIFR IN DENSE FOG...GENERALLY ACROSS NE MA/S CENTRAL
NH. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS APPROACH SW NH/NW MA AFTER
09Z.

TODAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS. LOW PROB
FOR ISOLD TSTM OR TWO FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE DAY NEAR OR
AHEAD OF FRONT. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ACROSS SW
NH/W MA AFTER 18Z AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS E.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS THROUGH 03Z-05Z...THEN IMPROVING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
COAST. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS...THEN SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...VFR. PATCHY DIURNAL CLOUDS AT 4-5KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS LOW
LEVEL SW JET MOVES ACROSS TODAY. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT PASSES A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

WINDS SHIFT TO W AND TEND TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EARLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL
LINGER AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

THURSDAY...LIGHT NW WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS EARLY SHOULD SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-
     026.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291033
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
633 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY...SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL
PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS SECTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO S CENTRAL NH...WITH SOME LOCALIZED VSBYS
AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE OR LESS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO
COVER THIS ASPECT OF THE MORNING COMMUTE.

OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO REFLECT
THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. THESE WERE MAINLY TWEAKS TO TIMING OF
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TEMPS AT 08Z REMAINING IN THE LOWER-MID 40S ACROSS INTO N CENTRAL
MA...RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS. APPEARS THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR WHERE
THE FOG HAS FORMED WITH CALM WINDS. PRECIP WILL REMAIN W OF THE
REGION THROUGH SUNRISE...THOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT WORK INTO SW
NH/W MA.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PUSH E...CROSSING THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. EXPECT BAND OF SCT SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS.
QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL GET GOING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT WITH RATHER MILD TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT ALONG WITH GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PRETTY GOOD
0-6KM SHEAR /SW AT 40-50 KT WITH LOW LEVEL JET/...BUT REMAINING
PARAMETERS NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS BETTER INSTABILITY
LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...CAN NOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS FRONT PASSES SO
KEPT MENTION IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS E MA INTO RI WHERE RELATIVELY
BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS.

EXPECT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH E COAST BY EVENING...PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY 00Z THU...SO SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. COULD SEE SCT SHOWERS
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE E AS THE FRONT CROSSES.

ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AIR WORKING IN.
WITH THE LONGER SW WINDS BRINGING THE MILDER AIR ACROSS E MA/RI...
TEMPS MAY REACH CLOSE TO OR ECLIPSE 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES E...AND APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
BY EARLY THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO
ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT. H85 TEMPS
WILL STEADILY DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. BY
SUNRISE...H85 TEMPS FALL TO -2C ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO +2C ACROSS
THE CAPE. WHILE NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXPECT THEM TO STIR
ENOUGH NOT TOO ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING WHERE SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WHILE THE H5 TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE
50S...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BUT A GOOD 15 DEGREES OR SO LOWER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.

THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.

CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCAL
PERIODS OF LIFR IN DENSE FOG...GENERALLY ACROSS NE MA/S CENTRAL
NH. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS APPROACH SW NH/NW MA AFTER
09Z.

TODAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS. LOW PROB
FOR ISOLD TSTM OR TWO FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE DAY NEAR OR
AHEAD OF FRONT. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ACROSS SW
NH/W MA AFTER 18Z AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS E.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS THROUGH 03Z-05Z...THEN IMPROVING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
COAST. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS...THEN SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...VFR. PATCHY DIURNAL CLOUDS AT 4-5KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS LOW
LEVEL SW JET MOVES ACROSS TODAY. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT PASSES A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

WINDS SHIFT TO W AND TEND TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EARLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL
LINGER AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

THURSDAY...LIGHT NW WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS EARLY SHOULD SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-
     026.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290915
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
515 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY...SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL
PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS SECTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO S CENTRAL NH...WITH SOME LOCALIZED VSBYS
AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE. HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER
THIS ASPECT OF THE MORNING COMMUTE.

TEMPS AT 08Z REMAINING IN THE LOWER-MID 40S ACROSS INTO N CENTRAL
MA...RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS. APPEARS THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR WHERE
THE FOG HAS FORMED WITH CALM WINDS. PRECIP WILL REMAIN W OF THE
REGION THROUGH SUNRISE...THOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT WORK INTO SW
NH/W MA.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PUSH E...CROSSING THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. EXPECT BAND OF SCT SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS.
QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL GET GOING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT WITH RATHER MILD TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT ALONG WITH GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PRETTY GOOD
0-6KM SHEAR /SW AT 40-50 KT WITH LOW LEVEL JET/...BUT REMAINING
PARAMETERS NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS BETTER INSTABILITY
LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...CAN NOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS FRONT PASSES SO
KEPT MENTION IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS E MA INTO RI WHERE RELATIVELY
BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS.

EXPECT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH E COAST BY EVENING...PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY 00Z THU...SO SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. COULD SEE SCT SHOWERS
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE E AS THE FRONT CROSSES.

ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AIR WORKING IN.
WITH THE LONGER SW WINDS BRINGING THE MILDER AIR ACROSS E MA/RI...
TEMPS MAY REACH CLOSE TO OR ECLIPSE 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...
THE H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES E...AND APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
BY EARLY THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO
ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT. H85 TEMPS
WILL STEADILY DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. BY
SUNRISE...H85 TEMPS FALL TO -2C ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO +2C ACROSS
THE CAPE. WHILE NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXPECT THEM TO STIR
ENOUGH NOT TOO ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING WHERE SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WHILE THE H5 TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE
50S...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BUT A GOOD 15 DEGREES OR SO LOWER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.

THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.

CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCAL
PERIODS OF LIFR IN DENSE FOG...GENERALLY ACROSS NE MA/S CENTRAL
NH. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS APPROACH SW NH/NW MA AFTER
09Z.

TODAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS. LOW PROB
FOR ISOLD TSTM OR TWO FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE DAY NEAR OR
AHEAD OF FRONT. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ACROSS SW
NH/W MA AFTER 18Z AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS E.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS THROUGH 03Z-05Z...THEN IMPROVING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
COAST. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS...THEN SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...VFR. PATCHY DIURNAL CLOUDS AT 4-5KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS LOW
LEVEL SW JET MOVES ACROSS TODAY. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT PASSES A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

WINDS SHIFT TO W AND TEND TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EARLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL
LINGER AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

THURSDAY...LIGHT NW WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS EARLY SHOULD SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 290912
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
512 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 445 AM...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NORTHEAST
PA TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...WITH THE SHOWERS GENERALLY MOVING
NORTHEAST. THIS BAND SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...AND NOT EXIT THE EXTREME SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATE TODAY. HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS ALONG THIS BAND AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND A LITTLE COOLER TODAY
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S
TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 40 AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD GET SOME MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AND HAVE FORECAST 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS
THE GENERAL MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BE
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...AND MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE...DIGGING...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SW FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.  IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
U30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS.  SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC GUIDANCE...THE H500 CUTOFF MOVE NORTHEAST
OF ERN NC WITH A SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN... AS
THE OCEANIC STORM DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TOO FAR FOR A MAJOR IMPACT IN
THE ALY FCST AREA.  IT WILL BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
SETS UP OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE IMPRESSIVE OCEAN
CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -5C TO -10C BY  DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...COLD...BLUSTERY...AND DRY WX IS THE TREND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  WIDESPREAD 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO
AROUND 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE E-CNTRL NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.  SOME SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO KGFL AND KALB BTWN
08Z-12Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE LOCATIONS. THE SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT KPSF
BTWN 08Z-12Z...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL 17Z-18Z. A LONGER SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IS LIKELY THERE. KPOU WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS 12Z...AND THERE IS THE THREAT OF A FEW
SHOWERS BTWN 15Z-19Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT....KEEPING THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL..KPOU...AND KPSF THIS
MORNING...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AT KALB IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO W AT 5-10 KTS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
AT 10 KTS OR LEES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND THEN EXIT THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

THE RH VALUES WILL 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 80
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE
SHOWERS TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA











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