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000
FXUS61 KALY 200834
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND INTENSIFY
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...STLT PICS INDICATED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE
OBS SHOW TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE FREEZE WARNING AREA GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S. IN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW
OR MID 30S.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DRY PERIOD FOR A LONG TIME AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS MID/HI CLOUDS SPREAD
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY /...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN DEVELOP INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. ON WEDNESDAY THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS WILL BRING A LONG
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO THE REGION...POSSIBLY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER
WESTERN AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE LEVELS OVER EASTERN
AREAS. ON TUESDAY THE POPS WILL RISE TO LIKELY LEVELS IN ALL AREAS
AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE TO HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S AND 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 06Z TUESDAY. PATCHY STRATOCU DECK IN 3500-5000 FT AGL RANGE
WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY DAWN...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS
BY NOON TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND
50 PERCENT.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 200834
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND INTENSIFY
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...STLT PICS INDICATED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE
OBS SHOW TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE FREEZE WARNING AREA GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S. IN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW
OR MID 30S.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DRY PERIOD FOR A LONG TIME AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS MID/HI CLOUDS SPREAD
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY /...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN DEVELOP INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. ON WEDNESDAY THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS WILL BRING A LONG
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO THE REGION...POSSIBLY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER
WESTERN AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE LEVELS OVER EASTERN
AREAS. ON TUESDAY THE POPS WILL RISE TO LIKELY LEVELS IN ALL AREAS
AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE TO HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S AND 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 06Z TUESDAY. PATCHY STRATOCU DECK IN 3500-5000 FT AGL RANGE
WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY DAWN...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS
BY NOON TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND
50 PERCENT.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 200834
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND INTENSIFY
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...STLT PICS INDICATED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE
OBS SHOW TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE FREEZE WARNING AREA GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S. IN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW
OR MID 30S.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DRY PERIOD FOR A LONG TIME AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS MID/HI CLOUDS SPREAD
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY /...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN DEVELOP INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. ON WEDNESDAY THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS WILL BRING A LONG
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO THE REGION...POSSIBLY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER
WESTERN AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE LEVELS OVER EASTERN
AREAS. ON TUESDAY THE POPS WILL RISE TO LIKELY LEVELS IN ALL AREAS
AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE TO HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S AND 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 06Z TUESDAY. PATCHY STRATOCU DECK IN 3500-5000 FT AGL RANGE
WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY DAWN...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS
BY NOON TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND
50 PERCENT.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 200834
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND INTENSIFY
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...STLT PICS INDICATED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE
OBS SHOW TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE FREEZE WARNING AREA GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S. IN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW
OR MID 30S.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DRY PERIOD FOR A LONG TIME AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS MID/HI CLOUDS SPREAD
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY /...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN DEVELOP INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. ON WEDNESDAY THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS WILL BRING A LONG
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO THE REGION...POSSIBLY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER
WESTERN AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE LEVELS OVER EASTERN
AREAS. ON TUESDAY THE POPS WILL RISE TO LIKELY LEVELS IN ALL AREAS
AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE TO HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S AND 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 06Z TUESDAY. PATCHY STRATOCU DECK IN 3500-5000 FT AGL RANGE
WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY DAWN...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS
BY NOON TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND
50 PERCENT.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200819
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY KEEPING
THE WEATHER QUIET. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

THICK CIRRUS HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION AS OF 400 AM. THIS HAS
LIMITED SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR ESP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MASS. THESE CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN AND OUT OF
THE REGION ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP..AS NOTICED ACROSS CT. PLUS
WITH  HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY. SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WINDHAM
AND TOLLAND COUNTIES IN CT HAVE DROPPED BELOW 32F. WHERE MANY OTHER
SITES ARE AT OR NEAR FREEZING SO WILL CONTINUE TO FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES FOR THIS MORNING AS TEMPS MAY DROP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
BETWEEN NOW AND DAWN.

TODAY...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION WHILE AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS ALLOWS FOR QUIET
WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW MIXING WILL REACH ABOVE 900 MB RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE NEAR 15 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE
KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
THANKS TO THE SW FLOW.

SW LLJ WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AND WITHIN THE SW
WAA FLOW...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST SHOT
WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PERHAPS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ALIGN WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LLJ. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS AND EVEN THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI VALUES BELOW 0. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE
INCREASING LLJ HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY...AND WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/LIFT WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. RIGHT NOW HAVE THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE RETURN FLOW AND THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS IN WARM
AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS A
  COASTAL STORM STALLS SOUTH OF NEW ENG
* LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY BUT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
* MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM
THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TUE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
PULLING AWAY FROM NEW ENG FRI/FRI NIGHT. TIGHT CLUSTERING AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH STALLS S OF NEW ENG FOR A
TIME AS IT GETS CAPTURED UNDER THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.  DESPITE
THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MASS FIELDS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF QPF DURING THE PERIOD. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THU...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE/WHEN HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL. STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL NOT LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
POPS/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL VARIATION IN THESE FIELDS.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE WE EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO AFFECT SNE DURING THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL.  MODELS ARE SIGNALING A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LIGHTER PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE DURING WED
NIGHT THU AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N INTO REGION WITH INCREASING QG
FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE YIELDS RAINFALL OF 1-3
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH.  WINDS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR FOR SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS COULD AFFECT
COASTAL NE MA LATE TUE NIGHT/WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY N OF THE REGION...THE THREAT FOR COASTAL
FLOODING REMAINS LOW AS SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL NOT LIKELY BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.  HOWEVER...THE RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE EAST OF CAPE COD BY FRI MORNING AND SLOWLY
LIFTING N TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY.  WHILE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IMPROVING...SCT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDER
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LOW JUST E OF THE REGION.

SAT AND SUN...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATE
SAT/SAT NIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS. SAT WILL  LIKELY BE THE
MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S...THEN
COOLER SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

AFTER 12Z...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. THIN CLOUDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS MOVING NEAR DAY BREAK ACROSS CAPE/ISLAND IN LIGHT RAIN. MVFR
CIGS MAY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN
RAIN. LOW CHANCE OF AN ISO THUNDER ACROSS CAPE/ISLAND.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR AND PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS. LOW PROB OF NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS NE
MA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT/WED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL LINGERING AROUND 5 FEET DURING THE
THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE EXPANDED SCA ACCORDINGLY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS CANCELLED EARLIER.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES
UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT NIGHT.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR AN ISO THUNDERSTORM DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT AND WED...WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA...BUT A PERIOD OF NE
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PROB WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE OVER WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN. HIGHEST SEAS 6-9 FT LATE TUE NIGHT/WED OVER NE MA
COASTAL WATERS.

WED NIGHT AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
BELOW SCA WITH LOW PROB OF SCA NE GUSTS OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.
HIGHEST SEAS 6-8 FT REMAIN OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

FRI...MAINLY NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH LOW PROB REACHING 25 KT.
SCA SEAS OVER EASTERN MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-015-016-
     019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005-006-
     009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-004-005-
     007.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 200819
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY KEEPING
THE WEATHER QUIET. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND
MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

THICK CIRRUS HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION AS OF 400 AM. THIS HAS
LIMITED SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR ESP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MASS. THESE CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN AND OUT OF
THE REGION ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP..AS NOTICED ACROSS CT. PLUS
WITH  HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY. SEVERAL SITES ACROSS WINDHAM
AND TOLLAND COUNTIES IN CT HAVE DROPPED BELOW 32F. WHERE MANY OTHER
SITES ARE AT OR NEAR FREEZING SO WILL CONTINUE TO FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES FOR THIS MORNING AS TEMPS MAY DROP ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
BETWEEN NOW AND DAWN.

TODAY...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION WHILE AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THIS ALLOWS FOR QUIET
WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW MIXING WILL REACH ABOVE 900 MB RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE NEAR 15 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
BEGIN TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE
KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
THANKS TO THE SW FLOW.

SW LLJ WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AND WITHIN THE SW
WAA FLOW...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST SHOT
WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND PERHAPS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ALIGN WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LLJ. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS AND EVEN THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI VALUES BELOW 0. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE
INCREASING LLJ HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY...AND WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/LIFT WILL BE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. RIGHT NOW HAVE THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY.

BECAUSE OF THE RETURN FLOW AND THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS IN WARM
AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS A
  COASTAL STORM STALLS SOUTH OF NEW ENG
* LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY BUT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
* MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
GUIDANCE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL STORM
THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TUE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
PULLING AWAY FROM NEW ENG FRI/FRI NIGHT. TIGHT CLUSTERING AMONG THE
MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH STALLS S OF NEW ENG FOR A
TIME AS IT GETS CAPTURED UNDER THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.  DESPITE
THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MASS FIELDS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF QPF DURING THE PERIOD. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THU...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE/WHEN HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL. STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL NOT LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
POPS/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL VARIATION IN THESE FIELDS.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE WE EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO AFFECT SNE DURING THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL.  MODELS ARE SIGNALING A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LIGHTER PRECIP DURING THIS TIME. HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE DURING WED
NIGHT THU AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N INTO REGION WITH INCREASING QG
FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE YIELDS RAINFALL OF 1-3
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH.  WINDS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR FOR SNE AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY NE WINDS COULD AFFECT
COASTAL NE MA LATE TUE NIGHT/WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY N OF THE REGION...THE THREAT FOR COASTAL
FLOODING REMAINS LOW AS SEAS AND STORM SURGE WILL NOT LIKELY BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.  HOWEVER...THE RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
COASTAL STORM WILL BE EAST OF CAPE COD BY FRI MORNING AND SLOWLY
LIFTING N TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE DAY.  WHILE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IMPROVING...SCT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDER
LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL LOW JUST E OF THE REGION.

SAT AND SUN...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEKEND. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATE
SAT/SAT NIGHT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS. SAT WILL  LIKELY BE THE
MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAXES WELL INTO THE 60S...THEN
COOLER SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

AFTER 12Z...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. THIN CLOUDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR
CIGS MOVING NEAR DAY BREAK ACROSS CAPE/ISLAND IN LIGHT RAIN. MVFR
CIGS MAY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN
RAIN. LOW CHANCE OF AN ISO THUNDER ACROSS CAPE/ISLAND.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR AND PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS. LOW PROB OF NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS NE
MA COAST LATE TUE NIGHT/WED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL LINGERING AROUND 5 FEET DURING THE
THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE EXPANDED SCA ACCORDINGLY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS CANCELLED EARLIER.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES
UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT NIGHT.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
BUT THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR AN ISO THUNDERSTORM DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT AND WED...WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SCA...BUT A PERIOD OF NE
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PROB WINDS COULD REACH GALE FORCE OVER WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN. HIGHEST SEAS 6-9 FT LATE TUE NIGHT/WED OVER NE MA
COASTAL WATERS.

WED NIGHT AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  EASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
BELOW SCA WITH LOW PROB OF SCA NE GUSTS OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.
HIGHEST SEAS 6-8 FT REMAIN OVER NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

FRI...MAINLY NW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH LOW PROB REACHING 25 KT.
SCA SEAS OVER EASTERN MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-015-016-
     019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005-006-
     009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-004-005-
     007.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 200605
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...STILL SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION SO
WILL LEAVE THE PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST AS IS. TEMPS WERE APPROACHING
FREEZING IN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA AND WILL LIKELY SEE AN END TO
THE GROWING SEASON IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE 20S TO
AROUND 30.

ON MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO THICKEN EARLY IN THE DAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID
DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 06Z TUESDAY. PATCHY STRATOCU DECK IN 3500-5000 FT AGL RANGE
WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY DAWN...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS
BY NOON TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA













000
FXUS61 KALY 200605
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...STILL SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION SO
WILL LEAVE THE PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST AS IS. TEMPS WERE APPROACHING
FREEZING IN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA AND WILL LIKELY SEE AN END TO
THE GROWING SEASON IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE 20S TO
AROUND 30.

ON MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO THICKEN EARLY IN THE DAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID
DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 06Z TUESDAY. PATCHY STRATOCU DECK IN 3500-5000 FT AGL RANGE
WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY DAWN...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS
BY NOON TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA












000
FXUS61 KALY 200233
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL SOME PATCHES OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS...OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. ALSO...SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
MOVED ACROSS THE REGION.

BOTH THESE CLOUDS HAVE PREVENT A RAPID DESCENT OF TEMPERATURES BUT
NEVERTHELESS THEY WERE STILL QUITE CHILLY...WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 40 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

ASIDE FROM A FEW POSSIBLE FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS...IT WAS DRY.

FOR THIS UPDATE...WE WILL CERTAINLY KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING UP AS IT
LOOKS AS IF MOST IF NOT ALL PLACES WILL DIP TO OR BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. WE DID HOWEVER...DELAY THE FROST IN THE GRIDS DUE TO
TEMPERATURES HOLDING UP IN THE VALLEYS A LITTLE LONGER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECASTED.

THE WINDS HAVE ABATED...BUT IN SOME CASES...STILL BLOWING UP TO 10
MPH.

SO FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...LIGHT
OR NO WIND AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING AROUND 32 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY ALBANY SOUTHWARD...25-30 MOST OTHER PLACES.


LATER ON MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO THICKEN EARLY IN THE DAY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID
DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 200233
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL SOME PATCHES OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS...OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. ALSO...SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
MOVED ACROSS THE REGION.

BOTH THESE CLOUDS HAVE PREVENT A RAPID DESCENT OF TEMPERATURES BUT
NEVERTHELESS THEY WERE STILL QUITE CHILLY...WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 40 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

ASIDE FROM A FEW POSSIBLE FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS...IT WAS DRY.

FOR THIS UPDATE...WE WILL CERTAINLY KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING UP AS IT
LOOKS AS IF MOST IF NOT ALL PLACES WILL DIP TO OR BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. WE DID HOWEVER...DELAY THE FROST IN THE GRIDS DUE TO
TEMPERATURES HOLDING UP IN THE VALLEYS A LITTLE LONGER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECASTED.

THE WINDS HAVE ABATED...BUT IN SOME CASES...STILL BLOWING UP TO 10
MPH.

SO FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...LIGHT
OR NO WIND AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING AROUND 32 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY ALBANY SOUTHWARD...25-30 MOST OTHER PLACES.


LATER ON MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO THICKEN EARLY IN THE DAY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID
DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KBOX 200212
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN UPSTATE NY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL RELATIVELY TIGHT
FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM SO WIND GUSTS ARE STILL UP FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION...ESP HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG CAA COMBINED WITH THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS GUSTY AS WELL.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING ASPECT.

UPSTREAM...HIGH CIRRUS IS MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY IN CONJUCTION
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THESE CLOUDS WILL MAKE THERE WAY INTO
WESTERN CT AND MA. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THERE THICKNESS AND HOW/IF
THEY WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THE AIRMASS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT WE WILL STILL SEE FREEZING TEMPS AFTER
THE WINDS DECOUPLE IN A FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED FOR THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 6Z...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME SKC.
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND ACROSS
THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AFTER 06Z...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.
LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-
     022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ005-006-009>014-
     017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 200212
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN UPSTATE NY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL RELATIVELY TIGHT
FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM SO WIND GUSTS ARE STILL UP FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION...ESP HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG CAA COMBINED WITH THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS GUSTY AS WELL.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING ASPECT.

UPSTREAM...HIGH CIRRUS IS MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY IN CONJUCTION
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THESE CLOUDS WILL MAKE THERE WAY INTO
WESTERN CT AND MA. BIGGEST QUESTION IS THERE THICKNESS AND HOW/IF
THEY WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THE AIRMASS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT WE WILL STILL SEE FREEZING TEMPS AFTER
THE WINDS DECOUPLE IN A FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED FOR THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 6Z...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME SKC.
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND ACROSS
THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AFTER 06Z...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.
LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-
     022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ005-006-009>014-
     017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 192349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...
NOTING GUSTY NW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AT 23Z DUE TO LEFTOVER PRES GRADIENT.
HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA...BUT
SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS CT/W MA AS SEEN ON LATEST IR
SATELLITE TRENDS...THOUGH NOTING LEADING EDGE OF CIRRUS INTRUDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE W.

SHOULD SEE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS RIDGE PUSHES SLOWLY E AS WELL AS
SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS WORK IN WITH THE
RIDGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WHEN UPDATING CURRENT CONDITIONS...NOTING
THAT DEWPTS WERE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS LOWER THAN FORECAST WHERE SKIES
HAD CLEARED. UPDATED THOSE GRIDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO LOWER
DEWPTS A FEW DEGS. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO BRING CURRENT BASED
ON SATELLITE.

REMAINING GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED TO BRING CURRENT.
AGREE WITH TEMP TRENDS AS READINGS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH.
KEPT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES INTACT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS
VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECASTS. FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME
SKC. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...VFR. CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 192349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...
NOTING GUSTY NW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AT 23Z DUE TO LEFTOVER PRES GRADIENT.
HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA...BUT
SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS CT/W MA AS SEEN ON LATEST IR
SATELLITE TRENDS...THOUGH NOTING LEADING EDGE OF CIRRUS INTRUDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE W.

SHOULD SEE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS RIDGE PUSHES SLOWLY E AS WELL AS
SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS WORK IN WITH THE
RIDGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WHEN UPDATING CURRENT CONDITIONS...NOTING
THAT DEWPTS WERE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS LOWER THAN FORECAST WHERE SKIES
HAD CLEARED. UPDATED THOSE GRIDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO LOWER
DEWPTS A FEW DEGS. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO BRING CURRENT BASED
ON SATELLITE.

REMAINING GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED TO BRING CURRENT.
AGREE WITH TEMP TRENDS AS READINGS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH.
KEPT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES INTACT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS
VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECASTS. FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME
SKC. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...VFR. CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 192349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...
NOTING GUSTY NW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AT 23Z DUE TO LEFTOVER PRES GRADIENT.
HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA...BUT
SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS CT/W MA AS SEEN ON LATEST IR
SATELLITE TRENDS...THOUGH NOTING LEADING EDGE OF CIRRUS INTRUDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE W.

SHOULD SEE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS RIDGE PUSHES SLOWLY E AS WELL AS
SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS WORK IN WITH THE
RIDGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WHEN UPDATING CURRENT CONDITIONS...NOTING
THAT DEWPTS WERE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS LOWER THAN FORECAST WHERE SKIES
HAD CLEARED. UPDATED THOSE GRIDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO LOWER
DEWPTS A FEW DEGS. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO BRING CURRENT BASED
ON SATELLITE.

REMAINING GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED TO BRING CURRENT.
AGREE WITH TEMP TRENDS AS READINGS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH.
KEPT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES INTACT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS
VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECASTS. FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME
SKC. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...VFR. CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 192349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...
NOTING GUSTY NW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AT 23Z DUE TO LEFTOVER PRES GRADIENT.
HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA...BUT
SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS CT/W MA AS SEEN ON LATEST IR
SATELLITE TRENDS...THOUGH NOTING LEADING EDGE OF CIRRUS INTRUDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE W.

SHOULD SEE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS RIDGE PUSHES SLOWLY E AS WELL AS
SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS WORK IN WITH THE
RIDGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WHEN UPDATING CURRENT CONDITIONS...NOTING
THAT DEWPTS WERE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS LOWER THAN FORECAST WHERE SKIES
HAD CLEARED. UPDATED THOSE GRIDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO LOWER
DEWPTS A FEW DEGS. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO BRING CURRENT BASED
ON SATELLITE.

REMAINING GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED TO BRING CURRENT.
AGREE WITH TEMP TRENDS AS READINGS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH.
KEPT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES INTACT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS
VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECASTS. FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME
SKC. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...VFR. CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 192349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...
NOTING GUSTY NW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AT 23Z DUE TO LEFTOVER PRES GRADIENT.
HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA...BUT
SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS CT/W MA AS SEEN ON LATEST IR
SATELLITE TRENDS...THOUGH NOTING LEADING EDGE OF CIRRUS INTRUDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE W.

SHOULD SEE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS RIDGE PUSHES SLOWLY E AS WELL AS
SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS WORK IN WITH THE
RIDGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WHEN UPDATING CURRENT CONDITIONS...NOTING
THAT DEWPTS WERE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS LOWER THAN FORECAST WHERE SKIES
HAD CLEARED. UPDATED THOSE GRIDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO LOWER
DEWPTS A FEW DEGS. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO BRING CURRENT BASED
ON SATELLITE.

REMAINING GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED TO BRING CURRENT.
AGREE WITH TEMP TRENDS AS READINGS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH.
KEPT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES INTACT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS
VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECASTS. FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME
SKC. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...VFR. CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 192349
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
735 PM UPDATE...
NOTING GUSTY NW WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AT 23Z DUE TO LEFTOVER PRES GRADIENT.
HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA...BUT
SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SKIES
ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS CT/W MA AS SEEN ON LATEST IR
SATELLITE TRENDS...THOUGH NOTING LEADING EDGE OF CIRRUS INTRUDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE W.

SHOULD SEE THE WINDS DIMINISH AS RIDGE PUSHES SLOWLY E AS WELL AS
SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS WORK IN WITH THE
RIDGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WHEN UPDATING CURRENT CONDITIONS...NOTING
THAT DEWPTS WERE ABOUT 2-4 DEGS LOWER THAN FORECAST WHERE SKIES
HAD CLEARED. UPDATED THOSE GRIDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO LOWER
DEWPTS A FEW DEGS. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO BRING CURRENT BASED
ON SATELLITE.

REMAINING GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED TO BRING CURRENT.
AGREE WITH TEMP TRENDS AS READINGS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH.
KEPT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES INTACT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS
VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECASTS. FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LEFTOVER SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-6KFT SHOULD BECOME
SKC. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG IMMEDIATE E COAST AND
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY...DIMINISHING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...VFR. CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO SW. HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM W.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 192326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS ALREADY SLIPPED
THROUGH. THE PROBLEM IS MOISTURE HAS GOTTEN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND WITH
TIME...MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP.

HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...WERE
STREAMING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THESE WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS WHOLE SCENARIO WILL LEAVE US WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE ALREADY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING OUT FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. IT STILL IS A GOOD
BET MOST PLACES WILL REACH FREEZING OR LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW
CLOUDS HOLD A LITTLE LONGER THAN WE THINK...THAT COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MORNING IN SOME PLACES.
RIGHT NOW...WE WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES ALONE AS THE ODDS ARE
BETTER THAN 50/50 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 32 OR LOWER.

THEREFORE...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS. IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND
TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 192326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS ALREADY SLIPPED
THROUGH. THE PROBLEM IS MOISTURE HAS GOTTEN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND WITH
TIME...MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP.

HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...WERE
STREAMING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THESE WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS WHOLE SCENARIO WILL LEAVE US WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE ALREADY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING OUT FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. IT STILL IS A GOOD
BET MOST PLACES WILL REACH FREEZING OR LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW
CLOUDS HOLD A LITTLE LONGER THAN WE THINK...THAT COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MORNING IN SOME PLACES.
RIGHT NOW...WE WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES ALONE AS THE ODDS ARE
BETTER THAN 50/50 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 32 OR LOWER.

THEREFORE...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS. IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND
TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KALY 192326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS ALREADY SLIPPED
THROUGH. THE PROBLEM IS MOISTURE HAS GOTTEN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND WITH
TIME...MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP.

HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...WERE
STREAMING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THESE WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS WHOLE SCENARIO WILL LEAVE US WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE ALREADY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING OUT FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. IT STILL IS A GOOD
BET MOST PLACES WILL REACH FREEZING OR LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW
CLOUDS HOLD A LITTLE LONGER THAN WE THINK...THAT COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MORNING IN SOME PLACES.
RIGHT NOW...WE WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES ALONE AS THE ODDS ARE
BETTER THAN 50/50 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 32 OR LOWER.

THEREFORE...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS. IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND
TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KALY 192326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS ALREADY SLIPPED
THROUGH. THE PROBLEM IS MOISTURE HAS GOTTEN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND WITH
TIME...MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP.

HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...WERE
STREAMING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THESE WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS WHOLE SCENARIO WILL LEAVE US WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE ALREADY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING OUT FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. IT STILL IS A GOOD
BET MOST PLACES WILL REACH FREEZING OR LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW
CLOUDS HOLD A LITTLE LONGER THAN WE THINK...THAT COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MORNING IN SOME PLACES.
RIGHT NOW...WE WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES ALONE AS THE ODDS ARE
BETTER THAN 50/50 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 32 OR LOWER.

THEREFORE...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS. IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND
TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KALY 192326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS ALREADY SLIPPED
THROUGH. THE PROBLEM IS MOISTURE HAS GOTTEN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND WITH
TIME...MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP.

HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...WERE
STREAMING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THESE WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS WHOLE SCENARIO WILL LEAVE US WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE ALREADY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING OUT FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. IT STILL IS A GOOD
BET MOST PLACES WILL REACH FREEZING OR LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW
CLOUDS HOLD A LITTLE LONGER THAN WE THINK...THAT COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MORNING IN SOME PLACES.
RIGHT NOW...WE WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES ALONE AS THE ODDS ARE
BETTER THAN 50/50 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 32 OR LOWER.

THEREFORE...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS. IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND
TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KALY 192326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS ALREADY SLIPPED
THROUGH. THE PROBLEM IS MOISTURE HAS GOTTEN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND WITH
TIME...MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP.

HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...WERE
STREAMING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THESE WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS WHOLE SCENARIO WILL LEAVE US WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE ALREADY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING OUT FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. IT STILL IS A GOOD
BET MOST PLACES WILL REACH FREEZING OR LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW
CLOUDS HOLD A LITTLE LONGER THAN WE THINK...THAT COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MORNING IN SOME PLACES.
RIGHT NOW...WE WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES ALONE AS THE ODDS ARE
BETTER THAN 50/50 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 32 OR LOWER.

THEREFORE...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS. IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND
TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KBOX 192107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
507 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE. SEAS LINGER AT 5-6 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING OFF LAND WITH SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 192107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
507 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE SLOWLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVALENT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH AT LEAST THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
  PRIMARY THREAT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  TUE NIGHT AND WED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NE MASS COAST.
* THE LOW LOOKS TO PUSH SLOWLY NE DURING THU...THOUGH INCLEMENT
  WEATHER MAY LINGER INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.
* EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MAY SEE A FEW
  SHOWERS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL 12Z OP MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID
ATLC STATES DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. BY THE BEGINNING OF
THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...PUSHING OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA COASTLINE BY MID WEEK.
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE FEATURE FORMS AND EVENTUALLY
SETS UP SHOP. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG E-NE LOW
LEVEL JET AND HOW CLOSE THIS WILL COME TO THE E COAST...OR IF IT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW MEANDER THROUGH LATE THU...THEN LOOKS TO
SLOWLY EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED
ON OPERATIONAL MODELS. GENERAL SIGNAL ON DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SIGNALING IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THURSDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHERE HIGHER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT SHIFTS SE
OUT THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TUE. QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM TUE
NIGHT SOMEWHERE OFF THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND FROM E-W ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING BAND OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL OFFSHORE...BUT QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER SOME OF
THIS WILL WORK INLAND. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP MAKE IT INTO NE
MA/S CENTRAL NH OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT STRONGER E-NE WINDS THAT MAY TRY TO WORK
ONSHORE WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING AROUND THE DEVELOP
CUTOFF UPPER LOW. AT THIS POINT...STILL LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN LOW /AROUND 2-3C/KM/
BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WORK DOWN WITH ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TUE NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NE COASTAL MA.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL MAKE IT TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ALONG THE
COAST...BUT ONLY THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXACT TIMING AND STORM IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. USING A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOK TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON THE S COAST RANGING UP TO 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS NE MA INTO S NH. QPF COULD INCREASE IF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
MOVE ACROSS...THOUGH. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY
HEAD NE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE STRONG WIND THREAT TO REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OR SO
ACROSS NE MA INTO S CENTRAL NH DEPENDING UPON POSITION OF JET AXIS
DURING TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS PUSHING N OF THE REGION...THREAT FOR
COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS LOW. SEAS DO BUILD OFF THE E MA COAST AND
COULD SEND SOME HIGHER SWELLS TOWARD THE SHORE BY WED/THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL HIGH WIND AXIS TO SEE IF IT SHIFTS
FURTHER S.  WITH INCREASING SWELLS...RISK CONTINUES FOR COASTAL
BEACH EROSION WITH THE WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

FRIDAY...
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE SURFACE LOW DEPART
DURING FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THIS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO PUSH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE INTO
FRI NIGHT ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY
PUSHES E. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FRI.

NEXT WEEKEND...
LOOKS TO BE A DRY SEASONABLE WEEKEND AS NW WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT TAKE OVER. SOME QUESTION AS TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING
H5 SHORT WAVE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING
THE REGION SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AT SURFACE...FOR
NOW...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR-IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN DURING TUE...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. LOW PROB OF E-NE WIND GUSTS
REACHING 20-25 KT ACROSS NE MA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AREAS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY. ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL
NH...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE. SEAS LINGER AT 5-6 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING OFF LAND WITH SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO E-SE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT E-NE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS N OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. LOW PROB OF GUSTS TO 30 KT
OR EVEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ON
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY WED...WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS...THEN UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND PATCHY FOG
WILL REDUCE VSBY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW ON THU BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
MAY SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING FRI. SEAS REMAIN HIGH
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KALY 192021
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
420 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FA LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8
TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
THE ONLY CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD.  FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
LESSEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LESS BY 04Z.  SKIES WILL BE
SCT...THEN HIGH CLOUDS ROLL IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...COMING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH VFR OVC BY DAYBREAK.  WINDS FOR MONDAY
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SO FLYING
SHOULD BE FINE.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 192021
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
420 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FA LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8
TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
THE ONLY CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD.  FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
LESSEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LESS BY 04Z.  SKIES WILL BE
SCT...THEN HIGH CLOUDS ROLL IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...COMING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH VFR OVC BY DAYBREAK.  WINDS FOR MONDAY
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SO FLYING
SHOULD BE FINE.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KBOX 191945
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVILANT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN
STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL EXPAND
ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS
REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE. SEAS LINGER AT 5-6 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING OFF LAND WITH SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST
BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191945
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVILANT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN
STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL EXPAND
ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS
REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE. SEAS LINGER AT 5-6 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING OFF LAND WITH SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST
BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191945
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVILANT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN
STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL EXPAND
ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS
REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE. SEAS LINGER AT 5-6 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING OFF LAND WITH SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST
BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191945
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVILANT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN
STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL EXPAND
ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS
REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 8 PM/00Z...
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE. SEAS LINGER AT 5-6 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS. PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING OFF LAND WITH SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO JUST THE OUTER WATERS LATE AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET
DURING THE MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. SEAS BUILD A LITTLE BUT REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET. LIGHT RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST
BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     235>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191808
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
208 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVILANT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN
STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL EXPAND
ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS
REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191808
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
208 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND -22C WHICH IS COLD
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH ANY
SOLAR HEATING OF THE SURFACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND. THE LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. OBSERVED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S WITH 20S UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NY. WITH THIS VALUES ADVECTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND...EXPECT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE COASTAL AREAS FALL
INTO THE 30S. EXPECTED VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH FROST ADVISORY ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY
AND THE MASS EAST COAST.

MODELS START TO BRING HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE AT NIGHT. WITH
SUFFICIENT THICKNESS...THESE CLOUDS COULD SLOW THE COOLING AND
KEEP SOME OF THE INTERIOR ABOVE FREEZING. BUT WE EXPECT THE
INITIAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY. MIXING SHOULD REACH TO
925 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS EQUIVILANT TO -1C/-3C AT
850 MB...SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS TURNS OUR UPPER FLOW INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK HINTS
IN THE MODEL DATA OF A 70-KNOT JET OVERHEAD OF THE NORTHEAST
USA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS POSSIBLE JET IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUGGESTING THE BEGINNING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE UP THE COAST IN CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING LIFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY COOL IN THE EVENING WITH
ENOUGH TIME TO DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WE USED A
RANGE OF MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY... PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN
STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL EXPAND
ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS
REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...

VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4500 FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-30 KNOTS...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS IN
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 191730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FA LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8
TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH GOOD MDL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG
THE MDLS AVBL. MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS DEEPEN...THEN
CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE OR LESS
VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR YYZ. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS RESULTED IN OVC
CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN THE INCRG S-SE
FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENISUS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A
DREARY PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SVRL
DEGREES ABV NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL
CREEP NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
12Z/FRIDAY. BASED ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
THE ONLY CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD.  FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
LESSEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LESS BY 04Z.  SKIES WILL BE
SCT...THEN HIGH CLOUDS ROLL IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...COMING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH VFR OVC BY DAYBREAK.  WINDS FOR MONDAY
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SO FLYING
SHOULD BE FINE.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NGT-THU: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA






000
FXUS61 KALY 191730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FA LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8
TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH GOOD MDL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG
THE MDLS AVBL. MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS DEEPEN...THEN
CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE OR LESS
VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR YYZ. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS RESULTED IN OVC
CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN THE INCRG S-SE
FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENISUS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A
DREARY PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SVRL
DEGREES ABV NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL
CREEP NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
12Z/FRIDAY. BASED ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
THE ONLY CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD.  FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
LESSEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LESS BY 04Z.  SKIES WILL BE
SCT...THEN HIGH CLOUDS ROLL IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...COMING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH VFR OVC BY DAYBREAK.  WINDS FOR MONDAY
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SO FLYING
SHOULD BE FINE.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NGT-THU: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KALY 191709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FA LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8
TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH GOOD MDL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG
THE MDLS AVBL. MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS DEEPEN...THEN
CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE OR LESS
VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR YYZ. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS RESULTED IN OVC
CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN THE INCRG S-SE
FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENISUS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/NJ
COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN BY
THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A
DREARY PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SVRL
DEGREES ABV NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL
CREEP NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
12Z/FRIDAY. BASED ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 191709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FA LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8
TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH GOOD MDL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG
THE MDLS AVBL. MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS DEEPEN...THEN
CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE OR LESS
VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR YYZ. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS RESULTED IN OVC
CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN THE INCRG S-SE
FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENISUS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/NJ
COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN BY
THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A
DREARY PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SVRL
DEGREES ABV NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL
CREEP NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
12Z/FRIDAY. BASED ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 191608
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1208 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY
AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME BREAKS
OF SUN ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. ISOLD-SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN
DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE
FCST AREA. BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH WILL KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 191608
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1208 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY
AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME BREAKS
OF SUN ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. ISOLD-SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN
DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE
FCST AREA. BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH WILL KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 191608
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1208 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY
AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME BREAKS
OF SUN ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. ISOLD-SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN
DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE
FCST AREA. BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH WILL KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 191608
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1208 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY
AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME BREAKS
OF SUN ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. ISOLD-SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN
DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE
FCST AREA. BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH WILL KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KBOX 191407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TROUGH AT 500 MB WITH AXIS FROM JUST WEST OF MONTREAL THROUGH
EASTERN NY AND THE DELAWARE VALLEY OF PA/NJ. OBSERVED 60 KNOTS AT
THIS LEVEL OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE
TROUGH ALONG THROUGH THE DAY. OBSERVED TEMPS -16C AT CHATHAM AND
-22C AT ALBANY...THEN -20C AT BUFFALO.

EXPECT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES PAST...TEMPS ALOFT WILL START TO WARM
LATER IN THE DAY. THE INITIAL COOLING ALOFT WILL DESTABILIZE THE
AIRMASS AND MAY WORK WITH THE MECHANICAL LIFT OF THE TROUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THE AIRMASS WILL RESTABILIZE AND
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.

SIGNS OF CLEARING IN NH AND WESTERN MASS. BUT UNTIL THE
TROUGH/COLD POOL MOVE PAST...ANY SUN SHOULD GENERATE DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND EITHER PARTIALLY OR TOTALLY FILL IN THE GAP. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED CLEARING LATER TODAY AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TROUGH AT 500 MB WITH AXIS FROM JUST WEST OF MONTREAL THROUGH
EASTERN NY AND THE DELAWARE VALLEY OF PA/NJ. OBSERVED 60 KNOTS AT
THIS LEVEL OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE
TROUGH ALONG THROUGH THE DAY. OBSERVED TEMPS -16C AT CHATHAM AND
-22C AT ALBANY...THEN -20C AT BUFFALO.

EXPECT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES PAST...TEMPS ALOFT WILL START TO WARM
LATER IN THE DAY. THE INITIAL COOLING ALOFT WILL DESTABILIZE THE
AIRMASS AND MAY WORK WITH THE MECHANICAL LIFT OF THE TROUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THE AIRMASS WILL RESTABILIZE AND
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.

SIGNS OF CLEARING IN NH AND WESTERN MASS. BUT UNTIL THE
TROUGH/COLD POOL MOVE PAST...ANY SUN SHOULD GENERATE DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND EITHER PARTIALLY OR TOTALLY FILL IN THE GAP. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED CLEARING LATER TODAY AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TROUGH AT 500 MB WITH AXIS FROM JUST WEST OF MONTREAL THROUGH
EASTERN NY AND THE DELAWARE VALLEY OF PA/NJ. OBSERVED 60 KNOTS AT
THIS LEVEL OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE
TROUGH ALONG THROUGH THE DAY. OBSERVED TEMPS -16C AT CHATHAM AND
-22C AT ALBANY...THEN -20C AT BUFFALO.

EXPECT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES PAST...TEMPS ALOFT WILL START TO WARM
LATER IN THE DAY. THE INITIAL COOLING ALOFT WILL DESTABILIZE THE
AIRMASS AND MAY WORK WITH THE MECHANICAL LIFT OF THE TROUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THE AIRMASS WILL RESTABILIZE AND
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.

SIGNS OF CLEARING IN NH AND WESTERN MASS. BUT UNTIL THE
TROUGH/COLD POOL MOVE PAST...ANY SUN SHOULD GENERATE DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND EITHER PARTIALLY OR TOTALLY FILL IN THE GAP. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED CLEARING LATER TODAY AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TROUGH AT 500 MB WITH AXIS FROM JUST WEST OF MONTREAL THROUGH
EASTERN NY AND THE DELAWARE VALLEY OF PA/NJ. OBSERVED 60 KNOTS AT
THIS LEVEL OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE
TROUGH ALONG THROUGH THE DAY. OBSERVED TEMPS -16C AT CHATHAM AND
-22C AT ALBANY...THEN -20C AT BUFFALO.

EXPECT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES PAST...TEMPS ALOFT WILL START TO WARM
LATER IN THE DAY. THE INITIAL COOLING ALOFT WILL DESTABILIZE THE
AIRMASS AND MAY WORK WITH THE MECHANICAL LIFT OF THE TROUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THE AIRMASS WILL RESTABILIZE AND
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.

SIGNS OF CLEARING IN NH AND WESTERN MASS. BUT UNTIL THE
TROUGH/COLD POOL MOVE PAST...ANY SUN SHOULD GENERATE DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND EITHER PARTIALLY OR TOTALLY FILL IN THE GAP. BETTER
CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED CLEARING LATER TODAY AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH.

OBSERVED WINDS ALOFT BELOW 850 MB ARE 25 KNOTS. MIXING WILL TAP
THESE WINDS AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 191358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
958 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS ERN NY AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS
SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN NY. A
QUICK FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME BREAKS
OF SUN ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. ISOLD-SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN
DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE
FCST AREA. BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH WILL KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 191358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
958 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS ERN NY AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS
SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN NY. A
QUICK FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME BREAKS
OF SUN ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. ISOLD-SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN
DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE
FCST AREA. BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH WILL KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 191107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SHARP MID LEVEL TROF AND ACCOMPANYING -22C AIR AT 500 MB WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS SNE THROUGH 18Z. LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
AND RADAR SHOWS SCT SHOWERS MOVING E FROM LONG ISLAND. MOCLDY
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHOWER...THEN TREND WILL BE FOR PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TROF AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. UPDATED NEAR
TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THIS MORNING. FALL HAS
OFFICIALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH TEMPS WILL
ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NOT THE 70SWE HAVE BEEN
USED TO OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL
BE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP ESP AFTER 18Z.

LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT CLOUDY FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD LOWER THEN FORECASTED.
DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COULD SEE GUSTY NW WINDS BETWEEN
25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE...LOW PROB IF A FEW GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH DIMINISHED A LITTLE
FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SHARP MID LEVEL TROF AND ACCOMPANYING -22C AIR AT 500 MB WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS SNE THROUGH 18Z. LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
AND RADAR SHOWS SCT SHOWERS MOVING E FROM LONG ISLAND. MOCLDY
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHOWER...THEN TREND WILL BE FOR PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TROF AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. UPDATED NEAR
TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THIS MORNING. FALL HAS
OFFICIALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH TEMPS WILL
ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NOT THE 70SWE HAVE BEEN
USED TO OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL
BE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP ESP AFTER 18Z.

LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT CLOUDY FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD LOWER THEN FORECASTED.
DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COULD SEE GUSTY NW WINDS BETWEEN
25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE...LOW PROB IF A FEW GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH DIMINISHED A LITTLE
FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 191101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS ERN NY AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD- SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN
DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS SHOW
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN NY. A QUICK
FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW- LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ISOLD-SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS. FROM CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
SOME SUNSHINE WILL FILTER WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...AS
H850 TEMPS TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA. BLUSTERY
NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL KEEP IT
CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 191101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS ERN NY AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD- SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN
DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS SHOW
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN NY. A QUICK
FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW- LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ISOLD-SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS. FROM CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
SOME SUNSHINE WILL FILTER WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...AS
H850 TEMPS TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA. BLUSTERY
NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL KEEP IT
CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 191101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS ERN NY AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD- SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN
DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS SHOW
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN NY. A QUICK
FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW- LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ISOLD-SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS. FROM CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
SOME SUNSHINE WILL FILTER WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...AS
H850 TEMPS TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA. BLUSTERY
NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL KEEP IT
CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 191101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS ERN NY AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD- SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN
DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS SHOW
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN NY. A QUICK
FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW- LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ISOLD-SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS. FROM CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
SOME SUNSHINE WILL FILTER WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...AS
H850 TEMPS TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA. BLUSTERY
NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL KEEP IT
CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 190839
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
439 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 438 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING ERN NY FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND
EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN
CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS SHOW SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL NY. A QUICK FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE
IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS
MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ISOLD-SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS. FROM CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
SOME SUNSHINE WILL FILTER WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS
...AS H850 TEMPS TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA.
BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL
KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
WESTERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN UP. WILL HAVE
BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE RODGE
BUILDS IN FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 190839
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
439 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 438 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING ERN NY FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND
EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN
CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS SHOW SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL NY. A QUICK FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE
IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS
MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ISOLD-SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS. FROM CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
SOME SUNSHINE WILL FILTER WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS
...AS H850 TEMPS TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA.
BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL
KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
WESTERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN UP. WILL HAVE
BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE RODGE
BUILDS IN FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 190818
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THIS TIME WILL LINGER
INTO TODAY. ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS
NOTED BY THE SURFACE WINDS...AS THEY SWITCH TO A MORE NW DIRECTION
RATHER THEN A WESTERLY DIRECTION. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IS EXTENDED
FROM KASH TO KOXC. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISO SHOWERS
AS 700 MB MOISTURE AXIS AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALIGN OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE CONTINUED THE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT POPS.

TODAY...

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THIS MORNING. FALL HAS
OFFICIALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 40S. NOT THE 70S DEGREES WE HAVE
BEEN USE TO OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP ESP AFTER 18Z.

LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT CLOUDY FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD LOWER THEN FORECASTED.
DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COULD SEE GUSTY NW WINDS BETWEEN
25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR WITH SCT MVFR MOVING ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOW PROB OF AN ISO SHOWER.

TODAY...VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 KT FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE...LOW PROB IF A FEW GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH DIMINISHED A LITTLE
FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 190818
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME
MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THIS TIME WILL LINGER
INTO TODAY. ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS
NOTED BY THE SURFACE WINDS...AS THEY SWITCH TO A MORE NW DIRECTION
RATHER THEN A WESTERLY DIRECTION. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IS EXTENDED
FROM KASH TO KOXC. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISO SHOWERS
AS 700 MB MOISTURE AXIS AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALIGN OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE CONTINUED THE MENTION FOR
SLIGHT POPS.

TODAY...

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THIS MORNING. FALL HAS
OFFICIALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 40S. NOT THE 70S DEGREES WE HAVE
BEEN USE TO OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP ESP AFTER 18Z.

LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT CLOUDY FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD LOWER THEN FORECASTED.
DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COULD SEE GUSTY NW WINDS BETWEEN
25-30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS
DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES
AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO
32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS
COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR
CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND
NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS
THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TOMORROW...

WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
  THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
  NORTHERN NEW ENG

OVERVIEW...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID
ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH
KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE.
AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF
AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER
INTERIOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND
OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT
FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE
FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES
MOVES E OF CAPE COD.

IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH.  IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES
STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENG.

THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS
STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO
THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION
APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...VFR WITH SCT MVFR MOVING ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOW PROB OF AN ISO SHOWER.

TODAY...VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 KT FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE...LOW PROB IF A FEW GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH DIMINISHED A LITTLE
FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS
CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO
TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE
GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT
EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH
LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REDUCE VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004-005-007.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 190606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND SOME OF
THE SHOWERS WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A
FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE A COATING. SUNDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY FROM THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND
FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. A QUICK FETCH
OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF SNOWFALL
OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE M30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...BUT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE
SKY COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
SOUTHEAST...THUS FEELING MORE LIKE MID NOVEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFF TO
OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPSF EARLIER IN THE TAF DUE TO UPSLOPE
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO
THE WESTERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME RATHER TIGHT
AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS INTO THE 20S ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE
RODGE BUILDS IN FURTHER. OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT-THU: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA/RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 190606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND SOME OF
THE SHOWERS WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A
FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE A COATING. SUNDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY FROM THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND
FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. A QUICK FETCH
OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF SNOWFALL
OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE M30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...BUT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE
SKY COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
SOUTHEAST...THUS FEELING MORE LIKE MID NOVEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFF TO
OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPSF EARLIER IN THE TAF DUE TO UPSLOPE
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO
THE WESTERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME RATHER TIGHT
AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS INTO THE 20S ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE
RODGE BUILDS IN FURTHER. OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT-THU: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA/RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 190521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND SOME OF
THE SHOWERS WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A
FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE A COATING. SUNDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY FROM THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND
FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. A QUICK FETCH
OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF SNOWFALL
OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE M30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...BUT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE
SKY COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
SOUTHEAST...THUS FEELING MORE LIKE MID NOVEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ENOUGH OF BREEZE...COMBINED WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL PREVENT THE
FORMATION OF FOG AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL TAKE PLACE..NAMELY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE
IS CHANNELED THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPSLOPE AT KPSF. AT THIS
TIME...WE FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2000
FEET...AT LEAST AT KALB.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT
EVEN VCSH) AT THIS TIME.

THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20KTS AT KPSF AND KALB.

CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED ON SUNDAY...LAST TO DO SO AT
KALB AND KPSF AND NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY (AROUND 22Z). VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
COULD BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE THEY WILL
PERSISTENTLY GUST TO 25KTS...AND OCCASIONALLY COULD EXCEED 30KTS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD RELAX AFTER 22Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 190521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND SOME OF
THE SHOWERS WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A
FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE A COATING. SUNDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY FROM THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND
FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. A QUICK FETCH
OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF SNOWFALL
OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE M30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...BUT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE
SKY COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
SOUTHEAST...THUS FEELING MORE LIKE MID NOVEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ENOUGH OF BREEZE...COMBINED WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL PREVENT THE
FORMATION OF FOG AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL TAKE PLACE..NAMELY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE
IS CHANNELED THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPSLOPE AT KPSF. AT THIS
TIME...WE FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2000
FEET...AT LEAST AT KALB.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT
EVEN VCSH) AT THIS TIME.

THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20KTS AT KPSF AND KALB.

CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED ON SUNDAY...LAST TO DO SO AT
KALB AND KPSF AND NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY (AROUND 22Z). VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
COULD BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE THEY WILL
PERSISTENTLY GUST TO 25KTS...AND OCCASIONALLY COULD EXCEED 30KTS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD RELAX AFTER 22Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 190222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL TURN COOLER WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A FEW
SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE A COATING. SUNDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH CLOUDS
SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...PLENTY CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE AROUND FOR THE COUNT
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THESE CLOUDS WERE
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...MOST
CONCENTRATED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 3 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES AS THESE CLOUDS WILL PREVENT A SHARP
DROP OFF TEMPERATURES. IT STILL LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BECOME
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS (COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS)

THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME ORIENTED AT ABOUT A 290 OR 300 AXIS WHICH
WILL MIGHT ALLOW FOR A RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. HOWEVER..MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN INVERSION AROUND 6000 FEET WHICH WOULD
INHIBIT THE DEPTH OF THE CLOUD TOPS. EVEN SO...SHOWERS OF
RAIN...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW WILL TEND TO BE FRAGMENTED ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEYS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO
AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW TO FALL MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BETTER CHANCES TO REACH THE
UPSLOPE TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. A FEW PLACES
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PORTIONS OF THE GREENS MIGHT GET A DUSTING OF
SNOW AS WELL.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...BUT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

LOOKS FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY BLUSTERY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY
CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...THUS FEELING MORE LIKE MID
NOVEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ENOUGH OF BREEZE...COMBINED WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL PREVENT THE
FORMATION OF FOG AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL TAKE PLACE..NAMELY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE
IS CHANNELED THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPSLOPE AT KPSF. AT THIS
TIME...WE FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2000
FEET...AT LEAST AT KALB.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT
EVEN VCSH) AT THIS TIME.

THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20KTS AT KPSF AND KALB.

CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED ON SUNDAY...LAST TO DO SO AT
KALB AND KPSF AND NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY (AROUND 22Z). VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
COULD BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE THEY WILL
PERSISTENTLY GUST TO 25KTS...AND OCCASIONALLY COULD EXCEED 30KTS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD RELAX AFTER 22Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 190222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL TURN COOLER WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A FEW
SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE A COATING. SUNDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH CLOUDS
SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...PLENTY CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE AROUND FOR THE COUNT
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THESE CLOUDS WERE
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...MOST
CONCENTRATED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 3 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES AS THESE CLOUDS WILL PREVENT A SHARP
DROP OFF TEMPERATURES. IT STILL LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BECOME
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS (COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS)

THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME ORIENTED AT ABOUT A 290 OR 300 AXIS WHICH
WILL MIGHT ALLOW FOR A RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. HOWEVER..MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN INVERSION AROUND 6000 FEET WHICH WOULD
INHIBIT THE DEPTH OF THE CLOUD TOPS. EVEN SO...SHOWERS OF
RAIN...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW WILL TEND TO BE FRAGMENTED ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEYS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO
AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW TO FALL MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BETTER CHANCES TO REACH THE
UPSLOPE TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. A FEW PLACES
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PORTIONS OF THE GREENS MIGHT GET A DUSTING OF
SNOW AS WELL.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...BUT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

LOOKS FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY BLUSTERY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY
CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...THUS FEELING MORE LIKE MID
NOVEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ENOUGH OF BREEZE...COMBINED WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL PREVENT THE
FORMATION OF FOG AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL TAKE PLACE..NAMELY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE
IS CHANNELED THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPSLOPE AT KPSF. AT THIS
TIME...WE FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2000
FEET...AT LEAST AT KALB.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT
EVEN VCSH) AT THIS TIME.

THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20KTS AT KPSF AND KALB.

CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED ON SUNDAY...LAST TO DO SO AT
KALB AND KPSF AND NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY (AROUND 22Z). VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
COULD BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE THEY WILL
PERSISTENTLY GUST TO 25KTS...AND OCCASIONALLY COULD EXCEED 30KTS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD RELAX AFTER 22Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER










000
FXUS61 KBOX 190159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY ALONG WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND
AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
RANGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING OUT THERE THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS SURFACE
DEWS CONTINUE TO DROP AS THE FRONT PASSES. WINDS WILL STAY UP
ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL REGIONS FROM CAA OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS. OTHERWISE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL/GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN
EVOLVING LONG DURATION HIGH AMPLITUDE COASTAL STORM BEGINNING OFF
DELMARVA TUE/WED AND THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THU/FRI. MODELS DIFFER ON FAR SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD CLOSED LOW INITIALLY DIGS...THEN HOW QUICKLY THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE LOW /OCCLUSION/ WHICH WILL
DETERMINE TIMING/TRACK AND DURATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS
OVER THE REGION BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES. AS EXPECTED THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DISPLAYS SOME SMALL VARIATIONS FROM RUN TO
RUN. THUS AT THIS TIME RANGE THE MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION IS A MODEL
BLEND WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS ENSEMBLE
MEANS.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...

OTHER THAN A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S
REGIONWIDE...IT WILL BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. WHILE
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN SUNDAY IT WILL FEEL
CONSIDERABLY WARMER GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE /LESS STRATO-CU/ AND LESS
WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EASILY THE PICK OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

PROLONG PERIOD OF RAIN AND WIND OF VARYING INTENSITY AS LARGE
AMPLITUDE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLC REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES ON EXACT EVOLUTION WHICH CREATES
UNCERTAINTY ON STORM DETAILS...SUCH AS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...
STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING. THE NEW 12Z GEFS
INDICATES STRONGEST 925 MB AND 850 MB ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALIES /+3 STD/ OCCUR FROM 12Z WED TO 12Z THU ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN LIFTING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER THU INTO FRI. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DRY SLOT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONCUR WITH THIS
EVOLUTION YIELDING EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" ACROSS CT/RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...INCREASING TO 3-4" OVER NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA AND NH. A SUPERBLEND OF ALL
MODEL SOURCES YIELDS THE SAME QPF RESULTS...AREAL COVERAGE AND IN
MAGNITUDE. THUS AT THIS TIME RANGE ENSEMBLES AND A MODEL BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUID SUGGEST GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS/STRONG
WINDS-DOWN TREE LIMBS-POWER OUTAGES AND COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE OBVIOUSLY
THIS CAN SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH OR NORTH. THUS NEED TO REMAIN
PROBABILISTIC AT THIS TIME RANGE.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LONGEST DURATION OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR FROM NORTHERN MA NORTHWARD ACROSS NH AND MAINE COASTLINE. THUS
GREATEST RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION IS CAPE ANN/SALISBURY
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT/S POSSIBLE FOR THIS RISK
AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OR NORTHWARD. WHILE ASTRO TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT
LOW THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER LONG DURATION EVENT OCCURRING OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES CAN
OFFSET THIS. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF EROSION APPEARS GREATER
THAN INUNDATION GIVEN LARGE SURF WILL BATTER THE COASTLINE FOR A
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

INITIAL FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AT 7 PM. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE 8-830 PM.
BEHIND THE FRONT A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT MAINLY DRY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM
18Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR/DRY RUNWAYS AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS POSSIBLE WED INTO EARLY THU ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** POWERFUL/DANGEROUS EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM TO MARINERS LIKELY
  WED/THU ***

MONDAY...WINDS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THUS SUBSIDING SEAS. GOOD VSBY IN DRY WEATHER.

TUE/WED/THU...COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE DE COAST YIELDING
INCREASING EAST WINDS BEGINNING TUE WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS LIKELY
WED INTO THU AS LOW PRES APPROACHES BETWEEN NANTUCKET AND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. E-NE GALES LIKELY WITH GREATEST RISK NORTHERN
WATERS ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS OF 15+...AGAIN OCEAN WATERS
NORTHEAST OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE
VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018.
NH...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 190159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY ALONG WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND
AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
RANGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING OUT THERE THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS SURFACE
DEWS CONTINUE TO DROP AS THE FRONT PASSES. WINDS WILL STAY UP
ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL REGIONS FROM CAA OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS. OTHERWISE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL/GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN
EVOLVING LONG DURATION HIGH AMPLITUDE COASTAL STORM BEGINNING OFF
DELMARVA TUE/WED AND THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THU/FRI. MODELS DIFFER ON FAR SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD CLOSED LOW INITIALLY DIGS...THEN HOW QUICKLY THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE LOW /OCCLUSION/ WHICH WILL
DETERMINE TIMING/TRACK AND DURATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS
OVER THE REGION BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES. AS EXPECTED THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DISPLAYS SOME SMALL VARIATIONS FROM RUN TO
RUN. THUS AT THIS TIME RANGE THE MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION IS A MODEL
BLEND WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS ENSEMBLE
MEANS.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...

OTHER THAN A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S
REGIONWIDE...IT WILL BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. WHILE
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN SUNDAY IT WILL FEEL
CONSIDERABLY WARMER GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE /LESS STRATO-CU/ AND LESS
WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EASILY THE PICK OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

PROLONG PERIOD OF RAIN AND WIND OF VARYING INTENSITY AS LARGE
AMPLITUDE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLC REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES ON EXACT EVOLUTION WHICH CREATES
UNCERTAINTY ON STORM DETAILS...SUCH AS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...
STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING. THE NEW 12Z GEFS
INDICATES STRONGEST 925 MB AND 850 MB ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALIES /+3 STD/ OCCUR FROM 12Z WED TO 12Z THU ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN LIFTING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER THU INTO FRI. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DRY SLOT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONCUR WITH THIS
EVOLUTION YIELDING EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" ACROSS CT/RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...INCREASING TO 3-4" OVER NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA AND NH. A SUPERBLEND OF ALL
MODEL SOURCES YIELDS THE SAME QPF RESULTS...AREAL COVERAGE AND IN
MAGNITUDE. THUS AT THIS TIME RANGE ENSEMBLES AND A MODEL BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUID SUGGEST GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS/STRONG
WINDS-DOWN TREE LIMBS-POWER OUTAGES AND COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE OBVIOUSLY
THIS CAN SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH OR NORTH. THUS NEED TO REMAIN
PROBABILISTIC AT THIS TIME RANGE.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LONGEST DURATION OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR FROM NORTHERN MA NORTHWARD ACROSS NH AND MAINE COASTLINE. THUS
GREATEST RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION IS CAPE ANN/SALISBURY
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT/S POSSIBLE FOR THIS RISK
AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OR NORTHWARD. WHILE ASTRO TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT
LOW THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER LONG DURATION EVENT OCCURRING OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES CAN
OFFSET THIS. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF EROSION APPEARS GREATER
THAN INUNDATION GIVEN LARGE SURF WILL BATTER THE COASTLINE FOR A
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

INITIAL FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AT 7 PM. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE 8-830 PM.
BEHIND THE FRONT A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT MAINLY DRY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM
18Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR/DRY RUNWAYS AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS POSSIBLE WED INTO EARLY THU ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** POWERFUL/DANGEROUS EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM TO MARINERS LIKELY
  WED/THU ***

MONDAY...WINDS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THUS SUBSIDING SEAS. GOOD VSBY IN DRY WEATHER.

TUE/WED/THU...COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE DE COAST YIELDING
INCREASING EAST WINDS BEGINNING TUE WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS LIKELY
WED INTO THU AS LOW PRES APPROACHES BETWEEN NANTUCKET AND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. E-NE GALES LIKELY WITH GREATEST RISK NORTHERN
WATERS ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS OF 15+...AGAIN OCEAN WATERS
NORTHEAST OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE
VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018.
NH...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KALY 182358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS TIME...MOST SCATTERED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING THROUGH THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. CLOUDS WERE PLENTIFUL AS THE UPPER AIR
TROUGH WILL STILL WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION...TAPPING INTO SOME
MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS OF THE CLOUDS...SHOWER COVERAGE
(LOWERED A LITTLE IN SOME SPOTS)...AND OF COURSE
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS.

A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND
THERE APPEARS TO BE ONE MORE VERY WEAK ONE THAT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...KEEP THE CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AROUND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO TRICKLE INTO THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT...WITH BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 40 IN MOST VALLEYS...30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME ORIENTED AT ABOUT A 290 OR 300 AXIS WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOWERS OF
RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW WILL BE FRAGMENTED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEYS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OR SO
OF SNOW TO FALL MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS COULD WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...POSSIBLY REACHING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BETTER CHANCES TO REACH THE UPSLOPE TERRAIN
OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. A FEW PLACES ACROSS THE
GREENS MIGHT GET A DUSTING OF SNOW AS WELL.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...BUT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY BLUSTERY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY
CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...THUS FEELING MORE LIKE MID
NOVEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ENOUGH OF BREEZE...COMBINED WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL PREVENT THE
FORMATION OF FOG AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL TAKE PLACE..NAMELY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE
IS CHANNELED THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPSLOPE AT KPSF. AT THIS
TIME...WE FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2000
FEET...AT LEAST AT KALB.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT
EVEN VCSH) AT THIS TIME.

THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20KTS AT KPSF AND KALB.

CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED ON SUNDAY...LAST TO DO SO AT
KALB AND KPSF AND NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY (AROUND 22Z). VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
COULD BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE THEY WILL
PERSISTENTLY GUST TO 25KTS...AND OCCASIONALLY COULD EXCEED 30KTS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD RELAX AFTER 22Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER/HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER










000
FXUS61 KALY 182358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
755 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS TIME...MOST SCATTERED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING THROUGH THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. CLOUDS WERE PLENTIFUL AS THE UPPER AIR
TROUGH WILL STILL WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION...TAPPING INTO SOME
MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS OF THE CLOUDS...SHOWER COVERAGE
(LOWERED A LITTLE IN SOME SPOTS)...AND OF COURSE
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS.

A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND
THERE APPEARS TO BE ONE MORE VERY WEAK ONE THAT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...KEEP THE CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AROUND.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO TRICKLE INTO THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT...WITH BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 40 IN MOST VALLEYS...30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME ORIENTED AT ABOUT A 290 OR 300 AXIS WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOWERS OF
RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW WILL BE FRAGMENTED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEYS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OR SO
OF SNOW TO FALL MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS COULD WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...POSSIBLY REACHING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BETTER CHANCES TO REACH THE UPSLOPE TERRAIN
OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. A FEW PLACES ACROSS THE
GREENS MIGHT GET A DUSTING OF SNOW AS WELL.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...BUT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY BLUSTERY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY
CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...THUS FEELING MORE LIKE MID
NOVEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ENOUGH OF BREEZE...COMBINED WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL PREVENT THE
FORMATION OF FOG AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL TAKE PLACE..NAMELY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE
IS CHANNELED THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPSLOPE AT KPSF. AT THIS
TIME...WE FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2000
FEET...AT LEAST AT KALB.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT
EVEN VCSH) AT THIS TIME.

THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20KTS AT KPSF AND KALB.

CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED ON SUNDAY...LAST TO DO SO AT
KALB AND KPSF AND NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY (AROUND 22Z). VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
COULD BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE THEY WILL
PERSISTENTLY GUST TO 25KTS...AND OCCASIONALLY COULD EXCEED 30KTS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD RELAX AFTER 22Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER/HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KBOX 182249
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
649 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY ALONG WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND
AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
RANGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

LEAD SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN MA. THIS FEATURE IS TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THIS AREA. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH 8-830 PM.
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW ALONG
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION. HOWEVER THE
TRUE COLD FRONT WAITS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AS TRAILING SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. UNTIL MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLES THIS
WELL SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE...JUST UPDATING HOURLY
GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURNING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL/GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN
EVOLVING LONG DURATION HIGH AMPLTIUDE COASTAL STORM BEGINNING OFF
DELMARVA TUE/WED AND THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THU/FRI. MODELS DIFFER ON FAR SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
CLOSED LOW INITIALLY DIGS...THEN HOW QUICKLY THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE LOW /OCCLUSION/ WHICH WILL
DETERMINE TIMING/TRACK AND DURATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS OVER
THE REGION BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES. AS EXPECTED THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE DISPLAYS SOME SMALL VARIATIONS FROM RUN TO RUN. THUS AT
THIS TIME RANGE THE MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION IS A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...

OTHER THAN A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S
REGIONWIDE...IT WILL BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. WHILE
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN SUNDAY IT WILL FEEL
CONSIDERABLY WARMER GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE /LESS STRATO-CU/ AND LESS
WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EASILY THE PICK OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

PROLONG PERIOD OF RAIN AND WIND OF VARYING INTENSITY AS LARGE
AMPLITUDE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLC REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES ON EXACT EVOLUTION WHICH CREATES
UNCERTAINTY ON STORM DETAILS...SUCH AS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...
STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING. THE NEW 12Z GEFS
INDICATES STRONGEST 925 MB AND 850 MB ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALIES /+3 STD/ OCCUR FROM 12Z WED TO 12Z THU ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN LIFTING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER THU INTO FRI. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DRY SLOT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONCUR WITH THIS
EVOLUTION YIELDING EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" ACROSS CT/RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...INCREASING TO 3-4" OVER NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA AND NH. A SUPERBLEND OF ALL
MODEL SOURCES YIELDS THE SAME QPF RESULTS...AREAL COVERAGE AND IN
MAGNITUDE. THUS AT THIS TIME RANGE ENSEMBLES AND A MODEL BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUID SUGGEST GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS/STRONG
WINDS-DOWN TREE LIMBS-POWER OUTAGES AND COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE OBVIOUSLY
THIS CAN SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH OR NORTH. THUS NEED TO REMAIN
PROBABILISTIC AT THIS TIME RANGE.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LONGEST DURATION OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR FROM NORTHERN MA NORTHWARD ACROSS NH AND MAINE COASTLINE. THUS
GREATEST RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION IS CAPE ANN/SALISBURY
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT/S POSSIBLE FOR THIS RISK
AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OR NORTHWARD. WHILE ASTRO TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT
LOW THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER LONG DURATION EVENT OCCURRING OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES CAN
OFFSET THIS. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF EROSION APPEARS GREATER
THAN INUNDATION GIVEN LARGE SURF WILL BATTER THE COASTLINE FOR A
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

INITIAL FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AT 7 PM. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE 8-830 PM.
BEHIND THE FRONT A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT MAINLY DRY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM
18Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR/DRY RUNWAYS AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS POSSIBLE WED INTO EARLY THU ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** POWERFUL/DANGEROUS EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM TO MARINERS LIKELY
  WED/THU ***

MONDAY...WINDS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THUS SUBSIDING SEAS. GOOD VSBY IN DRY WEATHER.

TUE/WED/THU...COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE DE COAST YIELDING
INCREASING EAST WINDS BEGINNING TUE WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS LIKELY
WED INTO THU AS LOW PRES APPROACHES BETWEEN NANTUCKET AND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. E-NE GALES LIKELY WITH GREATEST RISK NORTHERN
WATERS ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS OF 15+...AGAIN OCEAN WATERS
NORTHEAST OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE
VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018.
NH...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 182249
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
649 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY ALONG WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND
AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
RANGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

LEAD SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SURFACE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN MA. THIS FEATURE IS TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THIS AREA. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH 8-830 PM.
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW ALONG
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION. HOWEVER THE
TRUE COLD FRONT WAITS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AS TRAILING SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. UNTIL MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLES THIS
WELL SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE...JUST UPDATING HOURLY
GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURNING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL/GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN
EVOLVING LONG DURATION HIGH AMPLTIUDE COASTAL STORM BEGINNING OFF
DELMARVA TUE/WED AND THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THU/FRI. MODELS DIFFER ON FAR SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
CLOSED LOW INITIALLY DIGS...THEN HOW QUICKLY THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE LOW /OCCLUSION/ WHICH WILL
DETERMINE TIMING/TRACK AND DURATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS OVER
THE REGION BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES. AS EXPECTED THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE DISPLAYS SOME SMALL VARIATIONS FROM RUN TO RUN. THUS AT
THIS TIME RANGE THE MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION IS A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...

OTHER THAN A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S
REGIONWIDE...IT WILL BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. WHILE
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN SUNDAY IT WILL FEEL
CONSIDERABLY WARMER GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE /LESS STRATO-CU/ AND LESS
WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EASILY THE PICK OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

PROLONG PERIOD OF RAIN AND WIND OF VARYING INTENSITY AS LARGE
AMPLITUDE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLC REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES ON EXACT EVOLUTION WHICH CREATES
UNCERTAINTY ON STORM DETAILS...SUCH AS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...
STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING. THE NEW 12Z GEFS
INDICATES STRONGEST 925 MB AND 850 MB ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALIES /+3 STD/ OCCUR FROM 12Z WED TO 12Z THU ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN LIFTING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER THU INTO FRI. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DRY SLOT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONCUR WITH THIS
EVOLUTION YIELDING EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" ACROSS CT/RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...INCREASING TO 3-4" OVER NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA AND NH. A SUPERBLEND OF ALL
MODEL SOURCES YIELDS THE SAME QPF RESULTS...AREAL COVERAGE AND IN
MAGNITUDE. THUS AT THIS TIME RANGE ENSEMBLES AND A MODEL BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUID SUGGEST GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS/STRONG
WINDS-DOWN TREE LIMBS-POWER OUTAGES AND COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE OBVIOUSLY
THIS CAN SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH OR NORTH. THUS NEED TO REMAIN
PROBABILISTIC AT THIS TIME RANGE.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LONGEST DURATION OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR FROM NORTHERN MA NORTHWARD ACROSS NH AND MAINE COASTLINE. THUS
GREATEST RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION IS CAPE ANN/SALISBURY
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT/S POSSIBLE FOR THIS RISK
AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OR NORTHWARD. WHILE ASTRO TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT
LOW THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER LONG DURATION EVENT OCCURRING OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES CAN
OFFSET THIS. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF EROSION APPEARS GREATER
THAN INUNDATION GIVEN LARGE SURF WILL BATTER THE COASTLINE FOR A
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

INITIAL FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AT 7 PM. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE 8-830 PM.
BEHIND THE FRONT A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT MAINLY DRY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM
18Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR/DRY RUNWAYS AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS POSSIBLE WED INTO EARLY THU ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** POWERFUL/DANGEROUS EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM TO MARINERS LIKELY
  WED/THU ***

MONDAY...WINDS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THUS SUBSIDING SEAS. GOOD VSBY IN DRY WEATHER.

TUE/WED/THU...COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE DE COAST YIELDING
INCREASING EAST WINDS BEGINNING TUE WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS LIKELY
WED INTO THU AS LOW PRES APPROACHES BETWEEN NANTUCKET AND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. E-NE GALES LIKELY WITH GREATEST RISK NORTHERN
WATERS ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS OF 15+...AGAIN OCEAN WATERS
NORTHEAST OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE
VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018.
NH...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 182024
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
424 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY ALONG WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND
AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
RANGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MOST CELLS HAVE HAD 40 DBZ VALUES TOPPING OUT BELOW 13K
FEET...LOWER THAN -10C. BUT A FEW HAVE REACHED 18K FEET AND
GENERATED A LITTLE THUNDER. TOTALS IN THE MID 40S IN OUR AREA AND
AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT MOST ACTION TO BE AS
SHOWERS.

TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...SHOULD START
COOLING THIS EVENING. WINDS GUSTS OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNSET.

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURNING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL/GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN
EVOLVING LONG DURATION HIGH AMPLTIUDE COASTAL STORM BEGINNING OFF
DELMARVA TUE/WED AND THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THU/FRI. MODELS DIFFER ON FAR SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
CLOSED LOW INITIALLY DIGS...THEN HOW QUICKLY THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE LOW /OCCLUSION/ WHICH WILL
DETERMINE TIMING/TRACK AND DURATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS OVER
THE REGION BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES. AS EXPECTED THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE DISPLAYS SOME SMALL VARIATIONS FROM RUN TO RUN. THUS AT
THIS TIME RANGE THE MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION IS A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...

OTHER THAN A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S
REGIONWIDE...IT WILL BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. WHILE
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN SUNDAY IT WILL FEEL
CONSIDERABLY WARMER GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE /LESS STRATO-CU/ AND LESS
WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EASILY THE PICK OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

PROLONG PERIOD OF RAIN AND WIND OF VARYING INTENSITY AS LARGE
AMPLITUDE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLC REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES ON EXACT EVOLUTION WHICH CREATES
UNCERTAINTY ON STORM DETAILS...SUCH AS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...
STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING. THE NEW 12Z GEFS
INDICATES STRONGEST 925 MB AND 850 MB ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALIES /+3 STD/ OCCUR FROM 12Z WED TO 12Z THU ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN LIFTING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER THU INTO FRI. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DRY SLOT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONCUR WITH THIS
EVOLUTION YIELDING EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" ACROSS CT/RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...INCREASING TO 3-4" OVER NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA AND NH. A SUPERBLEND OF ALL
MODEL SOURCES YIELDS THE SAME QPF RESULTS...AREAL COVERAGE AND IN
MAGNITUDE. THUS AT THIS TIME RANGE ENSEMBLES AND A MODEL BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUID SUGGEST GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS/STRONG
WINDS-DOWN TREE LIMBS-POWER OUTAGES AND COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE OBVIOUSLY
THIS CAN SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH OR NORTH. THUS NEED TO REMAIN
PROBABILISTIC AT THIS TIME RANGE.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LONGEST DURATION OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR FROM NORTHERN MA NORTHWARD ACROSS NH AND MAINE COASTLINE. THUS
GREATEST RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION IS CAPE ANN/SALISBURY
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT/S POSSIBLE FOR THIS RISK
AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OR NORTHWARD. WHILE ASTRO TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT
LOW THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER LONG DURATION EVENT OCCURRING OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES CAN
OFFSET THIS. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF EROSION APPEARS GREATER
THAN INUNDATION GIVEN LARGE SURF WILL BATTER THE COASTLINE FOR A
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNSET.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR/DRY RUNWAYS AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS POSSIBLE WED INTO EARLY THU ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** POWERFUL/DANGEROUS EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM TO MARINERS LIKELY
  WED/THU ***

MONDAY...WINDS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THUS SUBSIDING SEAS. GOOD VSBY IN DRY WEATHER.

TUE/WED/THU...COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE DE COAST YIELDING
INCREASING EAST WINDS BEGINNING TUE WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS LIKELY
WED INTO THU AS LOW PRES APPROACHES BETWEEN NANTUCKET AND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. E-NE GALES LIKELY WITH GREATEST RISK NORTHERN
WATERS ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS OF 15+...AGAIN OCEAN WATERS
NORTHEAST OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE
VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018.
NH...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 182024
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
424 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY ALONG WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND
AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
RANGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 8 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MOST CELLS HAVE HAD 40 DBZ VALUES TOPPING OUT BELOW 13K
FEET...LOWER THAN -10C. BUT A FEW HAVE REACHED 18K FEET AND
GENERATED A LITTLE THUNDER. TOTALS IN THE MID 40S IN OUR AREA AND
AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT MOST ACTION TO BE AS
SHOWERS.

TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...SHOULD START
COOLING THIS EVENING. WINDS GUSTS OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNSET.

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURNING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL/GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN
EVOLVING LONG DURATION HIGH AMPLTIUDE COASTAL STORM BEGINNING OFF
DELMARVA TUE/WED AND THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THU/FRI. MODELS DIFFER ON FAR SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
CLOSED LOW INITIALLY DIGS...THEN HOW QUICKLY THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CAPTURES THE SURFACE LOW /OCCLUSION/ WHICH WILL
DETERMINE TIMING/TRACK AND DURATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS OVER
THE REGION BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES. AS EXPECTED THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE DISPLAYS SOME SMALL VARIATIONS FROM RUN TO RUN. THUS AT
THIS TIME RANGE THE MOST SKILLFUL SOLUTION IS A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GEFS AND 00Z ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...

OTHER THAN A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S
REGIONWIDE...IT WILL BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. WHILE
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN SUNDAY IT WILL FEEL
CONSIDERABLY WARMER GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE /LESS STRATO-CU/ AND LESS
WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EASILY THE PICK OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

PROLONG PERIOD OF RAIN AND WIND OF VARYING INTENSITY AS LARGE
AMPLITUDE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLC REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES ON EXACT EVOLUTION WHICH CREATES
UNCERTAINTY ON STORM DETAILS...SUCH AS AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...
STRONGEST WIND AND MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING. THE NEW 12Z GEFS
INDICATES STRONGEST 925 MB AND 850 MB ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND
ANOMALIES /+3 STD/ OCCUR FROM 12Z WED TO 12Z THU ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN LIFTING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER THU INTO FRI. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH DRY SLOT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONCUR WITH THIS
EVOLUTION YIELDING EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" ACROSS CT/RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...INCREASING TO 3-4" OVER NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA AND NH. A SUPERBLEND OF ALL
MODEL SOURCES YIELDS THE SAME QPF RESULTS...AREAL COVERAGE AND IN
MAGNITUDE. THUS AT THIS TIME RANGE ENSEMBLES AND A MODEL BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUID SUGGEST GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS/STRONG
WINDS-DOWN TREE LIMBS-POWER OUTAGES AND COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE OBVIOUSLY
THIS CAN SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH OR NORTH. THUS NEED TO REMAIN
PROBABILISTIC AT THIS TIME RANGE.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LONGEST DURATION OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR FROM NORTHERN MA NORTHWARD ACROSS NH AND MAINE COASTLINE. THUS
GREATEST RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION IS CAPE ANN/SALISBURY
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT/S POSSIBLE FOR THIS RISK
AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OR NORTHWARD. WHILE ASTRO TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT
LOW THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER LONG DURATION EVENT OCCURRING OVER MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES CAN
OFFSET THIS. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF EROSION APPEARS GREATER
THAN INUNDATION GIVEN LARGE SURF WILL BATTER THE COASTLINE FOR A
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNSET.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR/DRY RUNWAYS AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS POSSIBLE WED INTO EARLY THU ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** POWERFUL/DANGEROUS EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM TO MARINERS LIKELY
  WED/THU ***

MONDAY...WINDS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THUS SUBSIDING SEAS. GOOD VSBY IN DRY WEATHER.

TUE/WED/THU...COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE DE COAST YIELDING
INCREASING EAST WINDS BEGINNING TUE WITH STRONGEST E-NE WINDS LIKELY
WED INTO THU AS LOW PRES APPROACHES BETWEEN NANTUCKET AND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. E-NE GALES LIKELY WITH GREATEST RISK NORTHERN
WATERS ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS OF 15+...AGAIN OCEAN WATERS
NORTHEAST OF BOSTON TO CAPE ANN. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE
VSBY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018.
NH...NONE.
RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     RIZ001-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SUNDAY. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 8 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MOST CELLS HAVE HAD 40 DBZ VALUES TOPPING OUT BELOW 13K
FEET...LOWER THAN -10C. BUT A FEW HAVE REACHED 18K FEET AND
GENERATED A LITTLE THUNDER. TOTALS IN THE MID 40S IN OUR AREA AND
AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT MOST ACTION TO BE AS
SHOWERS.

TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...SHOULD START
COOLING THIS EVENING. WINDS GUSTS OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNSET.

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURNING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNSET.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SUNDAY. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 8 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MOST CELLS HAVE HAD 40 DBZ VALUES TOPPING OUT BELOW 13K
FEET...LOWER THAN -10C. BUT A FEW HAVE REACHED 18K FEET AND
GENERATED A LITTLE THUNDER. TOTALS IN THE MID 40S IN OUR AREA AND
AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT MOST ACTION TO BE AS
SHOWERS.

TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...SHOULD START
COOLING THIS EVENING. WINDS GUSTS OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNSET.

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURNING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNSET.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SUNDAY. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 8 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MOST CELLS HAVE HAD 40 DBZ VALUES TOPPING OUT BELOW 13K
FEET...LOWER THAN -10C. BUT A FEW HAVE REACHED 18K FEET AND
GENERATED A LITTLE THUNDER. TOTALS IN THE MID 40S IN OUR AREA AND
AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT MOST ACTION TO BE AS
SHOWERS.

TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...SHOULD START
COOLING THIS EVENING. WINDS GUSTS OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNSET.

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURNING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNSET.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SUNDAY. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 8 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MOST CELLS HAVE HAD 40 DBZ VALUES TOPPING OUT BELOW 13K
FEET...LOWER THAN -10C. BUT A FEW HAVE REACHED 18K FEET AND
GENERATED A LITTLE THUNDER. TOTALS IN THE MID 40S IN OUR AREA AND
AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT MOST ACTION TO BE AS
SHOWERS.

TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...SHOULD START
COOLING THIS EVENING. WINDS GUSTS OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNSET.

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURNING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNSET.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SUNDAY. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 8 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MOST CELLS HAVE HAD 40 DBZ VALUES TOPPING OUT BELOW 13K
FEET...LOWER THAN -10C. BUT A FEW HAVE REACHED 18K FEET AND
GENERATED A LITTLE THUNDER. TOTALS IN THE MID 40S IN OUR AREA AND
AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT MOST ACTION TO BE AS
SHOWERS.

TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...SHOULD START
COOLING THIS EVENING. WINDS GUSTS OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNSET.

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURNING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNSET.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SUNDAY. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE STORM AND WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 8 PM...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MOST CELLS HAVE HAD 40 DBZ VALUES TOPPING OUT BELOW 13K
FEET...LOWER THAN -10C. BUT A FEW HAVE REACHED 18K FEET AND
GENERATED A LITTLE THUNDER. TOTALS IN THE MID 40S IN OUR AREA AND
AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT MOST ACTION TO BE AS
SHOWERS.

TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...SHOULD START
COOLING THIS EVENING. WINDS GUSTS OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNSET.

TONIGHT...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN FROM ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THUS
EXPECT SHOWER COVERAGE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S...THIS IS A REASONABLE TARGET FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY...
SECOND SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CLEARING
AND DRYING TREND BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND SUPPORT DAYTIME MIXING OF THE AIRMASS TO 850
MB. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. WE WILL USE THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURNING THE EARLY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT 30-35 ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS.
THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST.
WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
WHERE THE SEASON HAS NOT ALREADY ENDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z/8 PM...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNSET.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS WITH A 14 SECOND PERIOD AND HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY/MASSACHUSETTS BAY.

SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC



000
FXUS61 KALY 181944
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
302 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT ESPECIALLY KGFL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE NEW YORK-CANADIAN
BORDER.  THINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN
WELL TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE NO SHEAR CONCERNS AS WINDS UP THROUGH 3000
FEET WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.  BENEATH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...ONLY SCT CLDS...ABOVE 3000
FEET... ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  WINDY.  NO SIG WX. SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE
OF RA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 181944
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
302 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT ESPECIALLY KGFL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE NEW YORK-CANADIAN
BORDER.  THINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN
WELL TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE NO SHEAR CONCERNS AS WINDS UP THROUGH 3000
FEET WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.  BENEATH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...ONLY SCT CLDS...ABOVE 3000
FEET... ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  WINDY.  NO SIG WX. SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE
OF RA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER










000
FXUS61 KALY 181944
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
302 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT ESPECIALLY KGFL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE NEW YORK-CANADIAN
BORDER.  THINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN
WELL TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE NO SHEAR CONCERNS AS WINDS UP THROUGH 3000
FEET WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.  BENEATH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...ONLY SCT CLDS...ABOVE 3000
FEET... ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  WINDY.  NO SIG WX. SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE
OF RA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 181944
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
302 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT ESPECIALLY KGFL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE NEW YORK-CANADIAN
BORDER.  THINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN
WELL TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE NO SHEAR CONCERNS AS WINDS UP THROUGH 3000
FEET WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.  BENEATH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...ONLY SCT CLDS...ABOVE 3000
FEET... ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  WINDY.  NO SIG WX. SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE
OF RA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 181944
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
302 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT ESPECIALLY KGFL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE NEW YORK-CANADIAN
BORDER.  THINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN
WELL TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE NO SHEAR CONCERNS AS WINDS UP THROUGH 3000
FEET WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.  BENEATH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...ONLY SCT CLDS...ABOVE 3000
FEET... ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  WINDY.  NO SIG WX. SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE
OF RA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 181944
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
302 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT ESPECIALLY KGFL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE NEW YORK-CANADIAN
BORDER.  THINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN
WELL TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE NO SHEAR CONCERNS AS WINDS UP THROUGH 3000
FEET WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.  BENEATH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...ONLY SCT CLDS...ABOVE 3000
FEET... ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  WINDY.  NO SIG WX. SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE
OF RA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER









000
FXUS61 KALY 181755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MDLS GUID HAS INCRG AND THICKENING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR N AND W
PRTNS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MDL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PVS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DVLPG TUES NT AS FCA IS AT NOSE OF
EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE COASTAL FRONTO GEN.
REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH
BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING
AROUND IT. THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...AND OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH
HIGH CHC POPS TO THE WEST. THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT. PERIODS OF
MDT-HVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY EASTWARD. COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA...AND LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT ESPECIALLY KGFL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE NEW YORK-CANADIAN
BORDER.  THINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN
WELL TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE NO SHEAR CONCERNS AS WINDS UP THROUGH 3000
FEET WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.  BENEATH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...ONLY SCT CLDS...ABV 3000 FEET...
ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  WINDY.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 181755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MDLS GUID HAS INCRG AND THICKENING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR N AND W
PRTNS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MDL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PVS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DVLPG TUES NT AS FCA IS AT NOSE OF
EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE COASTAL FRONTO GEN.
REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH
BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING
AROUND IT. THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...AND OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH
HIGH CHC POPS TO THE WEST. THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT. PERIODS OF
MDT-HVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY EASTWARD. COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA...AND LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT ESPECIALLY KGFL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE NEW YORK-CANADIAN
BORDER.  THINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN
WELL TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE NO SHEAR CONCERNS AS WINDS UP THROUGH 3000
FEET WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.  BENEATH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...ONLY SCT CLDS...ABV 3000 FEET...
ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  WINDY.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 181755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MDLS GUID HAS INCRG AND THICKENING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR N AND W
PRTNS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MDL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PVS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DVLPG TUES NT AS FCA IS AT NOSE OF
EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE COASTAL FRONTO GEN.
REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH
BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING
AROUND IT. THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...AND OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH
HIGH CHC POPS TO THE WEST. THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT. PERIODS OF
MDT-HVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY EASTWARD. COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA...AND LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT ESPECIALLY KGFL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE NEW YORK-CANADIAN
BORDER.  THINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN
WELL TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE NO SHEAR CONCERNS AS WINDS UP THROUGH 3000
FEET WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.  BENEATH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...ONLY SCT CLDS...ABV 3000 FEET...
ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  WINDY.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 181755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MDLS GUID HAS INCRG AND THICKENING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR N AND W
PRTNS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MDL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PVS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DVLPG TUES NT AS FCA IS AT NOSE OF
EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE COASTAL FRONTO GEN.
REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH
BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING
AROUND IT. THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...AND OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH
HIGH CHC POPS TO THE WEST. THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT. PERIODS OF
MDT-HVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY EASTWARD. COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA...AND LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT ESPECIALLY KGFL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE NEW YORK-CANADIAN
BORDER.  THINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN
WELL TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE NO SHEAR CONCERNS AS WINDS UP THROUGH 3000
FEET WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.  BENEATH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...ONLY SCT CLDS...ABV 3000 FEET...
ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  WINDY.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KBOX 181749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
149 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS
LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE
STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

130 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS POPPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. MOST CELLS
ARE HAVE 40 DBZ VALUES TOPPING OUT BELOW 13K FEET...LOWER THAN
-10C. ONE NEAR NEWBURYPORT AND THE NH BORDER BRIEFLY GENERATED CG
LIGHTNING. SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT...AS EXPECTED...FAVORS
BETTER INSTABILITY WHICH IS MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.

UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TOTALS
IN THE MID 40S IN OUR AREA AND AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA BY EVENING. THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. 20 MPH WINDS GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB PER
SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY***

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SNE. IN FACT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S....WHICH ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS RIGHT NOW! WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE REGION...AN ISO SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY
RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION...A FEW LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE -22C
OVER THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT
CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD
LOWER THEN FORECASTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAA
SO GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

SUN NIGHT...
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...YIELDING GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS.  THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.  FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT
LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN SOUTHWEST NH AND WESTERN MASS. SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL
WATERS FROM A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVE. SEAS
GENERALLY 6 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.

TOMORROW...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO
STRONG CAA BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GALES FORCE GUSTS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND LINGERING
SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUN
EVENING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON.
ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT AS LEFTOVER SE
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO COMBINE WITH NW WIND WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
149 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS
LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE
STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

130 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS POPPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. MOST CELLS
ARE HAVE 40 DBZ VALUES TOPPING OUT BELOW 13K FEET...LOWER THAN
-10C. ONE NEAR NEWBURYPORT AND THE NH BORDER BRIEFLY GENERATED CG
LIGHTNING. SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT...AS EXPECTED...FAVORS
BETTER INSTABILITY WHICH IS MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.

UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TOTALS
IN THE MID 40S IN OUR AREA AND AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA BY EVENING. THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. 20 MPH WINDS GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB PER
SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY***

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SNE. IN FACT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S....WHICH ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS RIGHT NOW! WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE REGION...AN ISO SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY
RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION...A FEW LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE -22C
OVER THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT
CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD
LOWER THEN FORECASTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAA
SO GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

SUN NIGHT...
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...YIELDING GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS.  THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.  FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT
LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN SOUTHWEST NH AND WESTERN MASS. SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL
WATERS FROM A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVE. SEAS
GENERALLY 6 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.

TOMORROW...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO
STRONG CAA BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GALES FORCE GUSTS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND LINGERING
SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUN
EVENING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON.
ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT AS LEFTOVER SE
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO COMBINE WITH NW WIND WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
149 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS
LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE
STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

130 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS POPPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. MOST CELLS
ARE HAVE 40 DBZ VALUES TOPPING OUT BELOW 13K FEET...LOWER THAN
-10C. ONE NEAR NEWBURYPORT AND THE NH BORDER BRIEFLY GENERATED CG
LIGHTNING. SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT...AS EXPECTED...FAVORS
BETTER INSTABILITY WHICH IS MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.

UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TOTALS
IN THE MID 40S IN OUR AREA AND AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA BY EVENING. THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. 20 MPH WINDS GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB PER
SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY***

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SNE. IN FACT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S....WHICH ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS RIGHT NOW! WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE REGION...AN ISO SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY
RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION...A FEW LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE -22C
OVER THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT
CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD
LOWER THEN FORECASTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAA
SO GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

SUN NIGHT...
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...YIELDING GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS.  THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.  FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT
LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN SOUTHWEST NH AND WESTERN MASS. SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF
MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW...TURNING ANY WET SPOTS ON THE GROUND
INTO PATCHES OF ICE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL
WATERS FROM A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVE. SEAS
GENERALLY 6 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.

TOMORROW...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO
STRONG CAA BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GALES FORCE GUSTS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND LINGERING
SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUN
EVENING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON.
ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT AS LEFTOVER SE
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO COMBINE WITH NW WIND WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 181746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MDLS GUID HAS INCRG AND THICKENING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR N AND W
PRTNS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL. BUT WITH
LITTLE OR NO SUN...AND AFTER RECENT WARMTH IT WILL FEEL CHILLY TO
MOST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS  WILL
BE OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON THESE
FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MDL SUITE. HWVR THEY
DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER
PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL TUES NT.
GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE REGION TUES. THE
GEM/PVS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT. THE GFS INDICATES
HEAVIER RAIN DVLPG TUES NT AS FCA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD
CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE COASTAL FRONTO GEN. REGARDLESS THE
PERIOD WILL END WITH DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING
AROUND IT. THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...AND OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH
HIGH CHC POPS TO THE WEST. THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT. PERIODS OF
MDT-HVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY EASTWARD. COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA...AND LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT ESPECIALLY KGFL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE NEW YORK-CANADIAN
BORDER.  THINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN
WELL TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE NO SHEAR CONCERNS AS WINDS UP THROUGH 3000
FEET WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.  BENEATH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...ONLY SCT CLDS...ABV 3000 FEET...
ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  WINDY.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA





000
FXUS61 KALY 181746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MDLS GUID HAS INCRG AND THICKENING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR N AND W
PRTNS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL. BUT WITH
LITTLE OR NO SUN...AND AFTER RECENT WARMTH IT WILL FEEL CHILLY TO
MOST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS  WILL
BE OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON THESE
FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MDL SUITE. HWVR THEY
DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER
PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL TUES NT.
GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE REGION TUES. THE
GEM/PVS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT. THE GFS INDICATES
HEAVIER RAIN DVLPG TUES NT AS FCA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD
CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE COASTAL FRONTO GEN. REGARDLESS THE
PERIOD WILL END WITH DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING
AROUND IT. THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...AND OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH
HIGH CHC POPS TO THE WEST. THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT. PERIODS OF
MDT-HVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY EASTWARD. COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA...AND LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT ESPECIALLY KGFL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE NEW YORK-CANADIAN
BORDER.  THINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN
WELL TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUS...THERE SHOULD BE NO SHEAR CONCERNS AS WINDS UP THROUGH 3000
FEET WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.  BENEATH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...ONLY SCT CLDS...ABV 3000 FEET...
ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  WINDY.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA






000
FXUS61 KALY 181703
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CONT
TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE
SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MDLS GUID HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PRTNS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL. BUT
WITH LITTLE OR NO SUN...AND AFTER RECENT WARMTH IT WILL FEEL
CHILLY TO MOST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS  WILL
BE OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON THESE
FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MDL SUITE. HWVR THEY
DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER
PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL TUES NT.
GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE REGION TUES. THE
GEM/PVS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT. THE GFS INDICATES
HEAVIER RAIN DVLPG TUES NT AS FCA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD
CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE COASTAL FRONTO GEN. REGARDLESS THE
PERIOD WILL END WITH DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING
AROUND IT. THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...AND OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH
HIGH CHC POPS TO THE WEST. THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT. PERIODS OF
MDT-HVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY EASTWARD. COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA...AND LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 181703
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
103 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND IT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY. MUCH OF MIDWEEK WILL BE WET...AND
UNSETTLED AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TUESDAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. A
SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. HIRESWRF
IS CURRENTLY DOING A GOOD JOB OF DEPICTING THE PCPN WHICH IS BEING
DETECTED ON RADAR. IT ALSO SHOWS THE IMPACT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE ON CREATING SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CONT
TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE
SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MDLS GUID HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PRTNS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL. BUT
WITH LITTLE OR NO SUN...AND AFTER RECENT WARMTH IT WILL FEEL
CHILLY TO MOST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS  WILL
BE OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON THESE
FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MDL SUITE. HWVR THEY
DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER
PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL TUES NT.
GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE REGION TUES. THE
GEM/PVS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT. THE GFS INDICATES
HEAVIER RAIN DVLPG TUES NT AS FCA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD
CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE COASTAL FRONTO GEN. REGARDLESS THE
PERIOD WILL END WITH DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING
AROUND IT. THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...AND OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH
HIGH CHC POPS TO THE WEST. THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT. PERIODS OF
MDT-HVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY EASTWARD. COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA...AND LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 181612
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1212 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON EDT...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARE IMPACTING THE FA.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MUCH OF THE THE FA WITH THE
SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA.
ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH ARE EVIDENT ON
THE REGIONAL RADARS. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UNTIL AFTER THE SECOND FRONT CLEARS THE
FA.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 181612
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1212 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON EDT...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARE IMPACTING THE FA.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MUCH OF THE THE FA WITH THE
SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA.
ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH ARE EVIDENT ON
THE REGIONAL RADARS. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UNTIL AFTER THE SECOND FRONT CLEARS THE
FA.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 181612
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1212 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON EDT...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARE IMPACTING THE FA.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MUCH OF THE THE FA WITH THE
SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA.
ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH ARE EVIDENT ON
THE REGIONAL RADARS. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UNTIL AFTER THE SECOND FRONT CLEARS THE
FA.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 181612
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1212 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON EDT...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARE IMPACTING THE FA.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MUCH OF THE THE FA WITH THE
SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA.
ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH ARE EVIDENT ON
THE REGIONAL RADARS. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UNTIL AFTER THE SECOND FRONT CLEARS THE
FA.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 181538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1138 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS
LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE
STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ONE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH STRONGER
VALUES IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT MAY SUPPORT THUNDER IN THAT
AREA. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA BY EVENING.

CURRENT FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKS FINE. HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. 20 MPH WINDS GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB PER
SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY***

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SNE. IN FACT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S....WHICH ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS RIGHT NOW! WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE REGION...AN ISO SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY
RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION...A FEW LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE -22C
OVER THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT
CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD
LOWER THEN FORECASTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAA
SO GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

SUN NIGHT...
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...YIELDING GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS.  THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.  FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS IN
SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MASS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD MON
MORNING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG POTENTIAL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT AND MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT
SUN EVENING THEN DIMINISHING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL
WATERS FROM A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVE. SEAS
GENERALLY 6 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.

TOMORROW...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO
STRONG CAA BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GALES FORCE GUSTS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND LINGERING
SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUN
EVENING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON.
ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT AS LEFTOVER SE
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO COMBINE WITH NW WIND WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1138 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS
LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE
STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ONE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH STRONGER
VALUES IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT MAY SUPPORT THUNDER IN THAT
AREA. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA BY EVENING.

CURRENT FORECAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKS FINE. HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. 20 MPH WINDS GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB PER
SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY***

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SNE. IN FACT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S....WHICH ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS RIGHT NOW! WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE REGION...AN ISO SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY
RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION...A FEW LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE -22C
OVER THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT
CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD
LOWER THEN FORECASTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAA
SO GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

SUN NIGHT...
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...YIELDING GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS.  THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.  FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS IN
SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MASS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD MON
MORNING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG POTENTIAL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT AND MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT
SUN EVENING THEN DIMINISHING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL
WATERS FROM A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVE. SEAS
GENERALLY 6 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.

TOMORROW...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO
STRONG CAA BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GALES FORCE GUSTS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND LINGERING
SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUN
EVENING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON.
ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT AS LEFTOVER SE
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO COMBINE WITH NW WIND WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 181346
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
946 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE SECOND COLD FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS HOUR. ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME
AS IT SWINGS OVER THE REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
THE AREA TODAY WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE REGIONAL RADARS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 181346
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
946 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE SECOND COLD FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS HOUR. ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME
AS IT SWINGS OVER THE REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
THE AREA TODAY WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE REGIONAL RADARS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 181346
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
946 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE SECOND COLD FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS HOUR. ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME
AS IT SWINGS OVER THE REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
THE AREA TODAY WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE REGIONAL RADARS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 181346
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
946 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE SECOND COLD FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS HOUR. ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME
AS IT SWINGS OVER THE REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
THE AREA TODAY WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE REGIONAL RADARS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KBOX 181105
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS
LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE
STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...OTHERWISE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NW OF THE REGION THROUGH 18Z WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MOCLDY SKIES TO THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. ONE SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE JUST N OF
SW NH DURING THE NEXT HOUR...BUT MORE SHOWERS UPSTREAM WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. CURRENT FORECAST
LARGELY ON TRACK. MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS
TO KEEP FORECAST CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LAST DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAA
PATTERN...SCT SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR TODAY BUT
BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER
TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE.

HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 20 MPH WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH
MIXING UP TO 850MB PER SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY***

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SNE. IN FACT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S....WHICH ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS RIGHT NOW! WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE REGION...AN ISO SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY
RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION...A FEW LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE -22C
OVER THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT
CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD
LOWER THEN FORECASTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAA
SO GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

SUN NIGHT...
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...YIELDING GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS.  THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.  FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
ERODE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A FEW SITES COULD DROP TO
MVFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD MON
MORNING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG POTENTIAL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT AND MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT
SUN EVENING THEN DIMINISHING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS FROM A
COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVE. SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO
10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TOMORROW...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO
STRONG CAA BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GALES FORCE GUSTS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND LINGERING
SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUN
EVENING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON.
ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT AS LEFTOVER SE
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO COMBINE WITH NW WIND WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181105
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS
LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE
STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...OTHERWISE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NW OF THE REGION THROUGH 18Z WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MOCLDY SKIES TO THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. ONE SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE JUST N OF
SW NH DURING THE NEXT HOUR...BUT MORE SHOWERS UPSTREAM WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. CURRENT FORECAST
LARGELY ON TRACK. MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS
TO KEEP FORECAST CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LAST DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAA
PATTERN...SCT SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR TODAY BUT
BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER
TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE.

HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 20 MPH WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH
MIXING UP TO 850MB PER SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY***

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SNE. IN FACT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S....WHICH ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS RIGHT NOW! WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE REGION...AN ISO SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY
RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION...A FEW LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE -22C
OVER THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT
CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD
LOWER THEN FORECASTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAA
SO GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

SUN NIGHT...
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...YIELDING GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS.  THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.  FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
ERODE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A FEW SITES COULD DROP TO
MVFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD MON
MORNING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG POTENTIAL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT AND MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT
SUN EVENING THEN DIMINISHING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS FROM A
COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVE. SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO
10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TOMORROW...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO
STRONG CAA BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GALES FORCE GUSTS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND LINGERING
SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUN
EVENING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON.
ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT AS LEFTOVER SE
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO COMBINE WITH NW WIND WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181105
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS
LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE
STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...OTHERWISE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NW OF THE REGION THROUGH 18Z WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MOCLDY SKIES TO THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. ONE SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE JUST N OF
SW NH DURING THE NEXT HOUR...BUT MORE SHOWERS UPSTREAM WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. CURRENT FORECAST
LARGELY ON TRACK. MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS
TO KEEP FORECAST CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LAST DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAA
PATTERN...SCT SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR TODAY BUT
BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER
TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE.

HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 20 MPH WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH
MIXING UP TO 850MB PER SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY***

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SNE. IN FACT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S....WHICH ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS RIGHT NOW! WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE REGION...AN ISO SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY
RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION...A FEW LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE -22C
OVER THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT
CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD
LOWER THEN FORECASTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAA
SO GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

SUN NIGHT...
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...YIELDING GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS.  THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.  FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
ERODE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A FEW SITES COULD DROP TO
MVFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD MON
MORNING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG POTENTIAL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT AND MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT
SUN EVENING THEN DIMINISHING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS FROM A
COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVE. SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO
10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TOMORROW...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO
STRONG CAA BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GALES FORCE GUSTS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND LINGERING
SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUN
EVENING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON.
ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT AS LEFTOVER SE
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO COMBINE WITH NW WIND WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181105
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH CHILLIER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WITH DRY WEATHER. A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS
LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TRACK OF THE
STORM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS SET UP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...OTHERWISE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NW OF THE REGION THROUGH 18Z WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MOCLDY SKIES TO THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. ONE SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE JUST N OF
SW NH DURING THE NEXT HOUR...BUT MORE SHOWERS UPSTREAM WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. CURRENT FORECAST
LARGELY ON TRACK. MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS
TO KEEP FORECAST CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LAST DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE REGION. ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAA
PATTERN...SCT SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR TODAY BUT
BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER
TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE.

HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 20 MPH WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH
MIXING UP TO 850MB PER SOUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
***A RETURN TO FALL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY***

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SNE. IN FACT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
40S....WHICH ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPS RIGHT NOW! WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE REGION...AN ISO SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER HIGH TEMPS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY
RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE OVER THE REGION...A FEW LINGERING DIURNAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY EVEN SEE
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SOME PEA SIZE HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE -22C
OVER THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT
CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD
LOWER THEN FORECASTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAA
SO GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT MUCH COOLER SUN INTO MON

* A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE
  THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...STRONGEST WIND AND
  MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN

OVERVIEW...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHICH EVOLVES INTO A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO
EAST NEW ENG DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.  DESPITE
THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS REMARKABLE CLUSTERING OF THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM IMPACTING SNE.  HOWEVER...THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THE AXIS AND TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FOCUSING HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND ACROSS
MAINE AND NH BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE SFC TRACK AND GIVEN
THE TIME RANGE WE HAVE TO LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER
IMPACT FURTHER S ACROSS SNE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LONG
DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM TUE THOUGH FRI.

DAILIES...

SUN NIGHT...
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...YIELDING GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS.  THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.  FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOT ENDED.

MONDAY...
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST PASSING S OF NEW ENG.
EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LESS WIND THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
NICELY INTO THE MID 50S AFTER RATHER COLD START TO THE MORNING. THE
BEST OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK
WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND WIND.
ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN WILL BEGIN TUE AS PRIMARY LOW GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO SECONDARY LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. IT APPEARS
HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL OCCUR DURING
WED/THU TIMEFRAME.  LATEST GFS AND ECMWF FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
WIND JUST TO THE N ACROSS NH/ME BUT SPILLING INTO NE MA AND S
NH...WITH LESS RAIN AND WIND FURTHER S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENDED
TIME RANGE IT IS POSSIBLE AXIS COULD SHIFT FURTHER S. WILL NEED TO
TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AS A HIGH IMPACT EVENT IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW WHICH WILL
LOWER THE THREAT AND LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS MAY
END UP JUST N OF THE REGION IN THE GULF OF MAINE. BEST CHANCE OF
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NE MA COASTLINE CLOSEST TO THE
EASTERLY LLJ. HOWEVER ANY SHIFT FURTHER S WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE E MA COAST.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF
THIS COASTAL STORM MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES WILL BE IMPACTED...THUS
INCREASING THE RISK FOR COASTAL EROSION GIVEN LARGE WAVES POSSIBLY
BATTERING THE COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
ERODE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A FEW SITES COULD DROP TO
MVFR.

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
EVENING. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH BKN050 CIGS. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD MON
MORNING. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FOG POTENTIAL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT AND MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT
SUN EVENING THEN DIMINISHING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE WED ACROSS NE MA AND S NH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS FROM A
COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVE. SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO
10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TOMORROW...SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS DUE TO
STRONG CAA BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GUSTS NEAR 30
KTS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW GALES FORCE GUSTS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND LINGERING
SWELL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUN
EVENING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH WEST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT MON.
ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN NIGHT AS LEFTOVER SE
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE GONZALO COMBINE WITH NW WIND WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSIDING SEAS MONDAY.

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. LOWERING VSBY IN
DEVELOPING RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

WED...LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE
COASTAL STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE STRONGEST WINDS AT GALE FORCE STRENGTH
ALONG WITH HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
BEST CHANCE FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 30+ KT WILL BE ACROSS NE MA COASTAL
WATERS...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-
15 FT OVER WATERS EAST OF CAPE ANN WITH MUCH LESS WAVE ACTION OVER
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 181058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE
REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH
IS EVIDENT ON THE REGIONAL RADARS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE COLD POOL/SHORT WAVE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 181058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE
REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH
IS EVIDENT ON THE REGIONAL RADARS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE COLD POOL/SHORT WAVE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 181058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE
REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH
IS EVIDENT ON THE REGIONAL RADARS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE COLD POOL/SHORT WAVE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 60 TO 70
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. A RECOVERY TO 80 TO NEAR
100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES OF 45 TO 55 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VALUES OF 35 TO 45
PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
A RECOVERY TO 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURNED UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS A QUARTER INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 181058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE SUNDAY HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALOFT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DAMPEN SOME AS IT SWINGS OVER THE
REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY WHICH
IS EVIDENT ON THE REGIONAL RADARS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER THE COLD POOL/SHORT WAVE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND
5 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS TO WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL NOT SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ITS PASSAGE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. IT SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT AFTER THE RECENT
MILD WEATHER AND THE BRISK WINDS IT WILL FEEL CHILLY FOR MOST.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
FREEZING AND BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE WILL HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN. THE GROWING SEASON SHOULD
FINALLY COME TO END ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WITH THIS AIRMASS. WILL KEEP MENTION
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
RE-ESTABLISH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE ENERGY RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS BACK
TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES MOSTLY WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE LOWER 48 THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CUTOFF LOW WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF
RAIN IMPACTING NY AND NEW ENGLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIALLY A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST WITH A SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A 2ND WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.  SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER
RAIN BY THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. A LITTLE WET SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SRN DACKS.
COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U50S OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.  IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN TUE NIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN MID 30S
TO M40S.

WED-WED NIGHT... THE H500 CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER THE UPPER MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND
IT.  THESE COASTAL SFC WAVES WILL TAP ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND
OCCASIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WED-WED NIGHT.  LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH HIGH CHC POPS TO
THE WEST.  THE STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE THE PCPN A BIT.  PERIODS OF MDT-HVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO TUE WITH M40S TO M50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND LOWS IN
THE U30S TO M40S.

THU-THU NIGHT... THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED/STACKED LOW IS
VARIABLE ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/00Z GEFS.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THE
CUTOFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  THE GFS HAS THE H500 CUTOFF JUST EAST OF
THE DELMARVA REGION.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE /ANOMALOUS
LOW-LEVEL -U COMPONENT OF THE WINDS/ IN THE GEFS.  HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  DANK AND COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...THE CUTOFF FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL E/NE OF CAPE COD.  SOME
DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY
STILL WRAP AROUND THE W/NW SIDE OF THE CUTOFF.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY WITH 50S FOR HIGHS.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND LOW CHC POPS TO THE NORTHEAST.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER POTENTIALLY TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AND
THEN A COLD FRONT FOR KPSF...AND POSSIBLY KGFL BTWN 14Z-18Z. THE
CIGS/VSBYS WILL INCREASE TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SCT SHOWERS AT
KALB/KPOU WITH CIGS DOWN TO 4-5 KFT AGL. TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH.
PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS
PRIOR TO NOONTIME. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
AT KALB AND KPSF. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
TOWARDS 00Z/SUN AT 8-14 KTS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN THE DECREASE SUNDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL MUCH COLDER WITH BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS WE HEA