000
FXUS61 KBOX 161125
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING DRY WEATHER THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING***

7AM UPDATE...
INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION /PARTICULARLY SRN PORTIONS/ THIS MORNING. A FEW
HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE BUILDING ALONG THE TIP OF LLJ/NOSE OF DRY AIR
ALOFT OVER SRN RI AND CT WHICH ARE PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND
AND WEAKEN. THESE WILL BE THE TWO AREAS TO WATCH THIS MORNING.
MAINLY...ISLANDS AND ISOLD SPOTS ON CAPE COD HAVE RECEIVED AN INCH
OR SO OF QPF SO FAR FROM THE OVERNIGHT RAINS. HOURLY QPF SHOULD BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.

THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. RUSH OF COLD AIR ALOFT /H5 TEMPS DIP TO AROUND -15C/ ALONG
WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT TO DESTABILIZE
COLUMN AND PROVIDE LIFT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DRY NOSE
MENTIONED EARLIER IS ALREADY ACTING TO ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD
COVER IN THE W AND SW. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THE
INCREASED INSOLATION WOULD LEAD TO MORE DESTABILIZATION WITH
1000-1500J/KG SBCAPE IN THE W. NO CHANGE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED TO THE CAPE/ISLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING.  SOME OF THE NEAR TERM/MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF LONG MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE.  IN ADDITION...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NEW JERSEY COULD WORK INTO OUR INTERIOR ZONES FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING AS WELL.  WILL HAVE SOME POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING.  THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE FOR A TIME ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...SO HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

WHILE CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE SEE THIS MORNING IS
LOW...DO EXPECT PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO EMERGE AT LEAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THAT WE EXPECT SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE
TO DEVELOP...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION.  ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS IN THE CT
RIVER VALLEY TOUCH 80.

THE MAIN QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THE NORTHEAST...ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT
SITUATION.  THE MAIN ISSUES WILL REVOLVE AROUND HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE
SEE ALONG WITH HOW LONG THE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT
THE REGION THIS MORNING.

WHAT EVER HAPPENS...EXPECT A RATHER LATE SHOW WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING AFTER 4 OR 5 PM AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.  MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40 KNOTS.  500 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -15C WHICH WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND PROBABLY ALLOW ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS TO
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING.  GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR
PARAMETERS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE MAIN THREAT/S
WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS.  THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A STABILIZING MARINE INFLUENCE TO KEEP MOST OF
WHAT FORMS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF A BOS-PVD LINE.  WILL INSERT
SOME ENHANCED WORDING INTO THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.

AGAIN...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING.  WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
MESOSCALE TRENDS AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AS MENTIONED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST FOR A
TIME DURING THE EVENING AS A RESULT OF THE FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  BY
DAYBREAK...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MON
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
16/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST REMAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE HANDLING A TRANSITION FROM CUTOFF LOW PRES TO THE N TO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATING THE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MON.
THERE ARE A FEW DETAILS STILL TO WORK OUT FOR MON INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY BECAUSE THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES ONCE AGAIN TO THE
N. ECMWF STILL IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN ITS ATTEMPT TO BRING LOW
PRES UP THE E COAST MON...AND HAS FLIP-FLOPPED ON THIS SCENARIO
THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS. THEREFORE...WILL GENERALLY LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE DRY SOLN IN GFS/GEFS MEAN/CMC SOLN THROUGH MON. LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE GENERALLY A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM DUE TO MUCH DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN AVAILABLE MODEL
DATA. SEE DETAILS BELOW FOR HANDLING OF MON NIGHT INTO MID WEEK.

DETAILS...

THU AND FRI...
HIGH PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE W DRAWING
COOL NRN AIRMASS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
ALLOWING THE COLUMN TO REMAIN DRY. H85 TEMPS DIP TO +1 - +3C
OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT. BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO AROUND +5C FRI.
WITH HIGH PRES BEGINNING TO CREST OVER THE AREA THU
NIGHT...CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR DECOUPLING. SO WITH RAD COOLING
AND INVERSION DEVELOPMENT...THE COOL H85 TEMPS WOULD PROMOTE SOME
NEAR FREEZING TEMPS IN NW MA/SRN NH SO FROST HEADLINES ARE STILL A
RISK FOR THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPS IN THE MID TO EVEN UPPER 70S
ARE POSSIBLE WITH FULL MIXING OF THE +5C TEMPS DURING THE DAY.
NOTE THAT NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS /INCLUDING BOS/PVD METROS/ MAY BE
COOLER DUE TO SEA BREEZES.

SAT THROUGH MON...
HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER FROM THE SW. THEREFORE...DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS. H5 HEIGHTS INCREASE TO
AROUND 585DM BY LATE SUN...SO A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE AREA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY E. THEREFORE....EXPECT A
NICE WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
EVEN 80S POSSIBLE SUN AND MON. NOTE THAT AGAIN...NEAR COASTAL
LOCATIONS MAY BE A BIT COOLER DUE TO SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT ATTEMPTS TO
CREST THE RIDGE SUN...WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SOME WEAK
-SHRA ACTIVITY IN EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT
WOULD NEED TO BE OVERCOME. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST...BUT ITS WORTH AT LEAST MENTIONING.

MON NIGHT INTO MID WEEK...
THE KEY FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE HANDLING OF
A TRANSITION FROM STRONG RIDGING DOMINATING THE FA...TO MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH EXACTLY HOW THIS
BREAKS DOWN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SOMEWHAT FROM LATE MON
INTO THE MID WEEK. ATTM...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AND STRONG WLY
THERMAL WIND...GUIDANCE FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY...BUT EACH MODEL
REACHES THIS CONCLUSION IN DIFFERENT WAYS. ECMWF PUSHES IT N FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE GFS SUGGESTS IT APPROACHES FROM THE W.
GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS ARE GENERALLY ALL OVER THE PLACE. GIVEN
THIS...WILL JUST TRANSITION FORECAST TOWARD A MORE UNSETTLED SOLN
WITH MORE CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT THREAT FOR PRECIP UNTIL
THESE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT


OVERVIEW...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS INTO THE MORNING THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR FROM W TO E LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SE
MASS/CAPE/ISLANDS MAY HOLD ON TO IFR/MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MOIST OCEAN FLOW.

SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO
THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. OTHERWISE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH THE COLD FRONT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MVFR CONDITIONS HANG ON FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...BUT
EXPECTING A GRADUAL LIFTING TO VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING. BUT
THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY W AND S OF THE TERMINAL.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAYBE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...

THU THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES
THIS MORNING.  BRIEF 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR THROUGH MID
MORNING IN ANY CONVECTION.  OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...SCA HEADLINES FOR
CONTINUE FOR ALL OPEN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.  THIS A RESULT OF LONG
SOUTHERLY FETCH WITH SEAS AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.  WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THU INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION THU AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST
OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SUN. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5
FT THU WITH SCA/S ENDING. AFTERWORDS WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST
DAYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KALY 161045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...AND BUILD SLOWLY TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE WEEKEND.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL SET UP
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605AM...CLOUDS PERSIST IN ALL BU THE FARTHEST NW ZONES...AND
HAVE SLOWED THEIR DEPARTURE THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE 3-5 DEGREES
ABV GRIDS AND HAVE REACHED MINS...SO ADJUSTED THERE. SHRA ARE OVER
PUTNAM AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES....HAVE INCRG POPS THERE FOR ANOTHER
2-3 HRS...BUT THESE SHOULD CONTINUE NE AND OUT OF FCA.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG
PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA WITH STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA. EXPECT THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED
TO FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FA AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON. CONVECTION WILL FIRST MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
PORTION OF FA EARLY AFTERNOON AND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. MLMUCAPES REACH 1500-2500 J/KG AT 18Z WITH
0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WHILE THIS AREA OF HELICITY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT SHIFTS
EAST ACRS FA...STILL EXPECT VALUES ARND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 200 M2/S2
PARTICULARLY ACRS SE PTN OF FA ARND 00Z. THIS ALSO FITS WITH TIMING
OF A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
EVENING. JET STRUCTURE IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS
FA ENDS UP IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
UPPER JET WITH MID LEVEL JET OF 60+ KTS AIMED DIRECTLY AT FA. H8-H7
LAPSE RATES ALSO VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH 7-9 C/KM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WBZ HEIGHTS ALSO LOWER TO BTWN 7 AND 9 KFT...SO
HAIL WILL ALSO BE PSBL. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 45 MPH AND MORE THAN LIKELY WILL
FORM INTO ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS WHICH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END THIS EVENING
EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM) AS 500HPA TROF
EXITS REGION EARLY IN THE DAY THUR...AND SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE GRTLKS. BRIEF SURGE OF COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO RGN THU..BUT
TEMPS ARE STILL NR NORMALS. THU NT SFC HIGH IS OVER FCA...AND
UNDER CLR SKIES AND LTS WINDS TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY IN COOL DRY
AIR MASS...BUT MID MAY NIGHTS ARE AMONG THE SHORTEST OF THE YEAR
AT UNDER 10 HOURS...AND BY LATE AT NIGHT CI/MI CLOUDS MAY BE
SPILLING OVER EAST SIDE OF 500HPA RIDGE IN WAA MAY ALREADY BE
ARRIVING IN THE FCA. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO 30S AND LOW 40S...AREAS
FROST IN ADIRONDACKS AND S VT.

FRI INTO SUN MASSIVE SHIFT IN UPPER AIR PATTERN OCCURS AS 500HPA
TROF OVER MARITIMES EXISTS...AND 580DM PLUS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS TO
OHIO BY SAT...AND BUILDS TO 586DM OVER NY/PA SUN. THROUGH HIS PERIOD
FCA IS IN STRONG WAA...AND MDL SUG SOME PATCHY MID AND HI CLOUDS
AT TIMES...WITH FAIR MS TO PS DAYS AND M CLR/PC NIGHTS. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS FRI IN 70S...SOARING INTO UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS HAS WEAK SOUTHEAST US CUT OFF SHEARING OUT...AND HOLDS A
RIDGE AT SFC AND 500HPA RIDGE E-W ACROSS THE MID ATLC RGN. IN
ADDITION AT SFC WK CDFNT MOVES INTO ST LAWRENCE VLY AND WASHES
OUT. THIS VIEW IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY PVS HPC PACKAGE AND CURRENT
FCST. ITS A WARM PERIOD WITH ISOLD SHRA. THE GEM IS SIMILAR AT
LEAST MONDAY BY DRIER.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES KEEP IN DRY TILL 00UTC TUE...WITH HALF
THE MEMBERS SUGGESTING 0.1 TO 0.7 IN TUES/WED...AND THE OTHERS
LESSER AMOUNTS OR TOTALLY DRY.

THE OUTLIER ATTM IS THE ECMWF WHICH LATE SUN PHASES SVRL SHORT WVS
INTO STRONGER SE USA CUT OFF. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORMATION A SFC
LOW FORMS OFF HAT AND MVS N INTO NJ. THIS SCENARIO SPREADS
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN INTO FCA MON INTO TUE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
WITH CURRENT THINKING AND POPULATE EFP WITH GMOS/GFS. WHILE THE
ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER ATTM...THIS SOLUTION HAS REARED ITS HEAD SVRL
TIMES THE PAST FEW RUNS IN DIFFERENT MDLS...AND IN TIME THESE
COULD BE GIVING A SIGNAL...AND THE FCST FOR MON/TUE COULD
DETERIORATE.

SINCE WE HAVE LARGE CONSENSUS INTO MON...EFP WILL KEEP IT DRY AND
WARM MONDAY AND RAISE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUE. TEMPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL MID MORNING.
STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP CIGS AND VSBYS LOW UNTIL MID MORNING AS IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SUNSHINE TO ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS. THE LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL ONLY SLOWLY LIFT BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. AFTER 15Z...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD LIFT TO VFR.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES APPROACHES THE TAF SITES
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND WHILE TOO UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES HAVE ADDED SHRA TO THE
TAFS STARTING BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z AND THESE SHOULD LAST UNTIL EARLY
EVENING...AFTER WHICH CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP RATHER QUICKLY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MID MORNING AND
THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7-10 KTS...AND THEN SOUTHWEST WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 KTS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-12 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING INTO THE NEW WEEK.
AFTER THE RECENT RATHER WET PERIOD THERE SHOULD BE NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY IN SHOWERS WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME WITHIN BANK RISES TODAY. OTHERWISE OUR WEATHER
WILL BE DRY THURSDAY INTO THE NEW WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO
RECEDE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 161009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
609 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...AND BUILD SLOWLY TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE WEEKEND.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL SET UP
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 605AM...CLOUDS PERSIST IN ALL BU THE FARTHEST NW ZONES...AND
HAVE SLOWED THEIR DEPARTURE THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE 3-5 DEGREES
ABV GRIDS AND HAVE REACHED MINS...SO ADJUSTED THERE. SHRA ARE OVER
PUTNAM AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES....HAVE INCRG POPS THERE FOR ANOTHER
2-3 HRS...BUT THESE SHOULD CONTINUE NE AND OUT OF FCA.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG
PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA WITH STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA. EXPECT THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED
TO FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FA AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON. CONVECTION WILL FIRST MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
PORTION OF FA EARLY AFTERNOON AND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. MLMUCAPES REACH 1500-2500 J/KG AT 18Z WITH
0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WHILE THIS AREA OF HELICITY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT SHIFTS
EAST ACRS FA...STILL EXPECT VALUES ARND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 200 M2/S2
PARTICULARLY ACRS SE PTN OF FA ARND 00Z. THIS ALSO FITS WITH TIMING
OF A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
EVENING. JET STRUCTURE IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS
FA ENDS UP IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
UPPER JET WITH MID LEVEL JET OF 60+ KTS AIMED DIRECTLY AT FA. H8-H7
LAPSE RATES ALSO VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH 7-9 C/KM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WBZ HEIGHTS ALSO LOWER TO BTWN 7 AND 9 KFT...SO
HAIL WILL ALSO BE PSBL. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 45 MPH AND MORE THAN LIKELY WILL
FORM INTO ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS WHICH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END THIS EVENING
EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM) AS 500HPA TROF
EXITS REGION EARLY IN THE DAY THUR...AND SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE GRTLKS. BRIEF SURGE OF COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO RGN THU..BUT
TEMPS ARE STILL NR NORMALS. THU NT SFC HIGH IS OVER FCA...AND
UNDER CLR SKIES AND LTS WINDS TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY IN COOL DRY
AIR MASS...BUT MID MAY NIGHTS ARE AMONG THE SHORTEST OF THE YEAR
AT UNDER 10 HOURS...AND BY LATE AT NIGHT CI/MI CLOUDS MAY BE
SPILLING OVER EAST SIDE OF 500HPA RIDGE IN WAA MAY ALREADY BE
ARRIVING IN THE FCA. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO 30S AND LOW 40S...AREAS
FROST IN ADIRONDACKS AND S VT.

FRI INTO SUN MASSIVE SHIFT IN UPPER AIR PATTERN OCCURS AS 500HPA
TROF OVER MARITIMES EXISTS...AND 580DM PLUS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS TO
OHIO BY SAT...AND BUILDS TO 586DM OVER NY/PA SUN. THROUGH HIS PERIOD
FCA IS IN STRONG WAA...AND MDL SUG SOME PATCHY MID AND HI CLOUDS
AT TIMES...WITH FAIR MS TO PS DAYS AND M CLR/PC NIGHTS. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS FRI IN 70S...SOARING INTO UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS HAS WEAK SOUTHEAST US CUT OFF SHEARING OUT...AND HOLDS A
RIDGE AT SFC AND 500HPA RIDGE E-W ACROSS THE MID ATLC RGN. IN
ADDITION AT SFC WK CDFNT MOVES INTO ST LAWRENCE VLY AND WASHES
OUT. THIS VIEW IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY PVS HPC PACKAGE AND CURRENT
FCST. ITS A WARM PERIOD WITH ISOLD SHRA. THE GEM IS SIMILAR AT
LEAST MONDAY BY DRIER.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES KEEP IN DRY TILL 00UTC TUE...WITH HALF
THE MEMBERS SUGGESTING 0.1 TO 0.7 IN TUES/WED...AND THE OTHERS
LESSER AMOUNTS OR TOTALLY DRY.

THE OUTLIER ATTM IS THE ECMWF WHICH LATE SUN PHASES SVRL SHORT WVS
INTO STRONGER SE USA CUT OFF. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORMATION A SFC
LOW FORMS OFF HAT AND MVS N INTO NJ. THIS SCENARIO SPREADS
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN INTO FCA MON INTO TUE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
WITH CURRENT THINKING AND POPULATE EFP WITH GMOS/GFS. WHILE THE
ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER ATTM...THIS SOLUTION HAS REARED ITS HEAD SVRL
TIMES THE PAST FEW RUNS IN DIFFERENT MDLS...AND IN TIME THESE
COULD BE GIVING A SIGNAL...AND THE FCST FOR MON/TUE COULD
DETERIORATE.

SINCE WE HAVE LARGE CONSENSUS INTO MON...EFP WILL KEEP IT DRY AND
WARM MONDAY AND RAISE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUE. TEMPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIFR AS WELL. STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP
CIGS AND VSBYS LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN
VERY MOIST AFTER HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS THE AREA OF TUESDAY. THE LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL ONLY SLOWLY LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. AFTER 14Z-15Z WEDNESDAY...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD LIFT TO VFR.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES APPROACHES THE TAF SITES
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND WHILE TOO UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES HAVE ADDED SHRA TO THE
TAFS STARTING BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z AND THESE SHOULD LAST UNTIL EARLY
EVENING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...
WED NT-SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING INTO THE NEW WEEK.
AFTER THE RECENT RATHER WET PERIOD THERE SHOULD BE NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY IN SHOWERS WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME WITHIN BANK RISES TODAY. OTHERWISE OUR WEATHER
WILL BE DRY THURSDAY INTO THE NEW WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO
RECEDE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBOX 160834
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING DRY WEATHER THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING***

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED TO THE CAPE/ISLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING.  SOME OF THE NEAR TERM/MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF LONG MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE.  IN ADDITION...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NEW JERSEY COULD WORK INTO OUR INTERIOR ZONES FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING AS WELL.  WILL HAVE SOME POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING.  THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE FOR A TIME ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...SO HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

WHILE CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE SEE THIS MORNING IS
LOW...DO EXPECT PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO EMERGE AT LEAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THAT WE EXPECT SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE
TO DEVELOP...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION.  ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS IN THE CT
RIVER VALLEY TOUCH 80.

THE MAIN QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THE NORTHEAST...ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT
SITUATION.  THE MAIN ISSUES WILL REVOLVE AROUND HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE
SEE ALONG WITH HOW LONG THE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT
THE REGION THIS MORNING.

WHAT EVER HAPPENS...EXPECT A RATHER LATE SHOW WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING AFTER 4 OR 5 PM AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.  MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40 KNOTS.  500 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -15C WHICH WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND PROBABLY ALLOW ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS TO
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING.  GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR
PARAMETERS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE MAIN THREAT/S
WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS.  THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A STABILIZING MARINE INFLUENCE TO KEEP MOST OF
WHAT FORMS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF A BOS-PVD LINE.  WILL INSERT
SOME ENHANCED WORDING INTO THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.

AGAIN...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING.  WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
MESOSCALE TRENDS AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...
AS MENTIONED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST FOR A
TIME DURING THE EVENING AS A RESULT OF THE FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  BY
DAYBREAK...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MON
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
16/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST REMAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE HANDLING A TRANSITION FROM CUTOFF LOW PRES TO THE N TO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATING THE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MON.
THERE ARE A FEW DETAILS STILL TO WORK OUT FOR MON INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY BECAUSE THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES ONCE AGAIN TO THE
N. ECMWF STILL IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN ITS ATTEMPT TO BRING LOW
PRES UP THE E COAST MON...AND HAS FLIP-FLOPPED ON THIS SCENARIO
THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS. THEREFORE...WILL GENERALLY LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE DRY SOLN IN GFS/GEFS MEAN/CMC SOLN THROUGH MON. LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE GENERALLY A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM DUE TO MUCH DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN AVAILABLE MODEL
DATA. SEE DETAILS BELOW FOR HANDLING OF MON NIGHT INTO MID WEEK.

DETAILS...

THU AND FRI...
HIGH PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE W DRAWING
COOL NRN AIRMASS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
ALLOWING THE COLUMN TO REMAIN DRY. H85 TEMPS DIP TO +1 - +3C
OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT. BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO AROUND +5C FRI.
WITH HIGH PRES BEGINNING TO CREST OVER THE AREA THU
NIGHT...CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR DECOUPLING. SO WITH RAD COOLING
AND INVERSION DEVELOPMENT...THE COOL H85 TEMPS WOULD PROMOTE SOME
NEAR FREEZING TEMPS IN NW MA/SRN NH SO FROST HEADLINES ARE STILL A
RISK FOR THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPS IN THE MID TO EVEN UPPER 70S
ARE POSSIBLE WITH FULL MIXING OF THE +5C TEMPS DURING THE DAY.
NOTE THAT NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS /INCLUDING BOS/PVD METROS/ MAY BE
COOLER DUE TO SEA BREEZES.

SAT THROUGH MON...
HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER FROM THE SW. THEREFORE...DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS. H5 HEIGHTS INCREASE TO
AROUND 585DM BY LATE SUN...SO A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE AREA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY E. THEREFORE....EXPECT A
NICE WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
EVEN 80S POSSIBLE SUN AND MON. NOTE THAT AGAIN...NEAR COASTAL
LOCATIONS MAY BE A BIT COOLER DUE TO SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT ATTEMPTS TO
CREST THE RIDGE SUN...WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SOME WEAK
-SHRA ACTIVITY IN EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT
WOULD NEED TO BE OVERCOME. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST...BUT ITS WORTH AT LEAST MENTIONING.

MON NIGHT INTO MID WEEK...
THE KEY FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE HANDLING OF
A TRANSITION FROM STRONG RIDGING DOMINATING THE FA...TO MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH EXACTLY HOW THIS
BREAKS DOWN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SOMEWHAT FROM LATE MON
INTO THE MID WEEK. ATTM...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AND STRONG WLY
THERMAL WIND...GUIDANCE FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY...BUT EACH MODEL
REACHES THIS CONCLUSION IN DIFFERENT WAYS. ECMWF PUSHES IT N FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE GFS SUGGESTS IT APPROACHES FROM THE W.
GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS ARE GENERALLY ALL OVER THE PLACE. GIVEN
THIS...WILL JUST TRANSITION FORECAST TOWARD A MORE UNSETTLED SOLN
WITH MORE CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT THREAT FOR PRECIP UNTIL
THESE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT


OVERVIEW...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
HANG TOUGH FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MORNING...BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR-VFR THRESHOLDS IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL PROBABLY BE THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHERE MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN MAY KEEP
CONDITIONS AT IFR LEVELS.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  OTHERWISE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE
COLD FRONT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH THIS MORNING...BUT
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED THUNDER WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL THIS MORNING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PROBABLY EVEN
VFR LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.  TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAYBE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...

THU THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES
THIS MORNING.  BRIEF 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR THROUGH MID
MORNING IN ANY CONVECTION.  OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...SCA HEADLINES FOR
CONTINUE FOR ALL OPEN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.  THIS A RESULT OF LONG
SOUTHERLY FETCH WITH SEAS AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.  WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THU INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION THU AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST
OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SUN. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5
FT THU WITH SCA/S ENDING. AFTERWORDS WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST
DAYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
EQUIPMENT...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KBOX 160820
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
420 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING DRY WEATHER THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING***

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONFINED TO THE CAPE/ISLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING.  SOME OF THE NEAR TERM/MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THAT A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF LONG MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE.  IN ADDITION...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NEW JERSEY COULD WORK INTO OUR INTERIOR ZONES FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING AS WELL.  WILL HAVE SOME POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS.

WHILE CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE SEE THIS MORNING IS
LOW...DO EXPECT PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO EMERGE AT LEAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THAT WE EXPECT SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE
TO DEVELOP...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION.  ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS IN THE CT
RIVER VALLEY TOUCH 80.

THE MAIN QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THE NORTHEAST...ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT
SITUATION.  THE MAIN ISSUES WILL REVOLVE AROUND HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE
SEE ALONG WITH HOW LONG THE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT
THE REGION THIS MORNING.

WHAT EVER HAPPENS...EXPECT A RATHER LATE SHOW WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING AFTER 4 OR 5 PM AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.  MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40 KNOTS.  500 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -15C WHICH WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND PROBABLY ALLOW ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS TO
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING.  GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR
PARAMETERS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE MAIN THREAT/S
WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS.  THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A STABILIZING MARINE INFLUENCE TO KEEP MOST OF
WHAT FORMS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF A BOS-PVD LINE.  WILL INSERT
SOME ENHANCED WORDING INTO THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.

AGAIN...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING.  WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
MESOSCALE TRENDS AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...
AS MENTIONED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST FOR A
TIME DURING THE EVENING AS A RESULT OF THE FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  BY
DAYBREAK...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MON
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
16/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST REMAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE HANDLING A TRANSITION FROM CUTOFF LOW PRES TO THE N TO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATING THE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MON.
THERE ARE A FEW DETAILS STILL TO WORK OUT FOR MON INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY BECAUSE THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES ONCE AGAIN TO THE
N. ECMWF STILL IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN ITS ATTEMPT TO BRING LOW
PRES UP THE E COAST MON...AND HAS FLIP-FLOPPED ON THIS SCENARIO
THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS. THEREFORE...WILL GENERALLY LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE DRY SOLN IN GFS/GEFS MEAN/CMC SOLN THROUGH MON. LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE GENERALLY A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM DUE TO MUCH DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN AVAILABLE MODEL
DATA. SEE DETAILS BELOW FOR HANDLING OF MON NIGHT INTO MID WEEK.

DETAILS...

THU AND FRI...
HIGH PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE W DRAWING
COOL NRN AIRMASS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
ALLOWING THE COLUMN TO REMAIN DRY. H85 TEMPS DIP TO +1 - +3C
OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT. BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO AROUND +5C FRI.
WITH HIGH PRES BEGINNING TO CREST OVER THE AREA THU
NIGHT...CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR DECOUPLING. SO WITH RAD COOLING
AND INVERSION DEVELOPMENT...THE COOL H85 TEMPS WOULD PROMOTE SOME
NEAR FREEZING TEMPS IN NW MA/SRN NH SO FROST HEADLINES ARE STILL A
RISK FOR THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPS IN THE MID TO EVEN UPPER 70S
ARE POSSIBLE WITH FULL MIXING OF THE +5C TEMPS DURING THE DAY.
NOTE THAT NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS /INCLUDING BOS/PVD METROS/ MAY BE
COOLER DUE TO SEA BREEZES.

SAT THROUGH MON...
HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER FROM THE SW. THEREFORE...DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS. H5 HEIGHTS INCREASE TO
AROUND 585DM BY LATE SUN...SO A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE AREA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY E. THEREFORE....EXPECT A
NICE WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
EVEN 80S POSSIBLE SUN AND MON. NOTE THAT AGAIN...NEAR COASTAL
LOCATIONS MAY BE A BIT COOLER DUE TO SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT ATTEMPTS TO
CREST THE RIDGE SUN...WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SOME WEAK
-SHRA ACTIVITY IN EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT
WOULD NEED TO BE OVERCOME. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST...BUT ITS WORTH AT LEAST MENTIONING.

MON NIGHT INTO MID WEEK...
THE KEY FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE HANDLING OF
A TRANSITION FROM STRONG RIDGING DOMINATING THE FA...TO MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH EXACTLY HOW THIS
BREAKS DOWN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SOMEWHAT FROM LATE MON
INTO THE MID WEEK. ATTM...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AND STRONG WLY
THERMAL WIND...GUIDANCE FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY...BUT EACH MODEL
REACHES THIS CONCLUSION IN DIFFERENT WAYS. ECMWF PUSHES IT N FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE GFS SUGGESTS IT APPROACHES FROM THE W.
GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS ARE GENERALLY ALL OVER THE PLACE. GIVEN
THIS...WILL JUST TRANSITION FORECAST TOWARD A MORE UNSETTLED SOLN
WITH MORE CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT THREAT FOR PRECIP UNTIL
THESE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT


OVERVIEW...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
HANG TOUGH FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MORNING...BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR-VFR THRESHOLDS IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL PROBABLY BE THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHERE MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN MAY KEEP
CONDITIONS AT IFR LEVELS.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  OTHERWISE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE
COLD FRONT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH THIS MORNING...BUT
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED THUNDER WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL THIS MORNING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PROBABLY EVEN
VFR LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.  TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAYBE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...

THU THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES
THIS MORNING.  BRIEF 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR THROUGH MID
MORNING IN ANY CONVECTION.  OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...SCA HEADLINES FOR
CONTINUE FOR ALL OPEN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.  THIS A RESULT OF LONG
SOUTHERLY FETCH WITH SEAS AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.  WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THU INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION THU AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST
OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SUN. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5
FT THU WITH SCA/S ENDING. AFTERWORDS WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST
DAYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
EQUIPMENT...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KBOX 160754
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER FROM
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 AM UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOW CONFINED TO
MAINLY THE CAPE AND ISLANDS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE REST OF
THE REGION WAS DRY WITH SOME PATCHY FOG.

WHILE INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SUNRISE...ITS POSSIBLE THAT A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES BACK ONTO RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE/NEAR TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MOVING INTO THIS REGION NEAR OR
AFTER SUNRISE FOR A FEW HORUS.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING.
ITS POSSIBLE THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

OVRNGT WET WX SHOULD SLIDE GRADUALLY OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING PD
WITH THE ATTENDANT FRNTL BOUNDARY PRESSING EWD AND STALLING AGAINST
THE STRONGER ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES. BUT AS THE DISTURBED WX
SLIDES E...SWLY FLOW INCREASES FROM THE W PROMOTING WAA THRU THE
LOW-MID LVLS ACROSS THE RGN. FEEL LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL HANG
ACROSS THE RGN RESULTING IN LIMITED MIXING DUE TO AN INVERSION
ALOFT. WHILE THE WRN ZONES MAY CLEAR...LOW STRATUS WILL LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
NRN STREAM SHRTWV AND ATTENDANT COLD FRNT.

ACROSS PA/NY WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED...A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
STEEP LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN STREAM
COLD FRNT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
RVR VLY /NRN NEW ENGLAND/. ACCORDINGLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COLD FRNT INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
BY THE AFTN HRS. AM SPECULATIVE AS TO HOW FAR E THESE STORMS WILL
PROGRESS WITH THE FEELING THAT THE RGN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE. AS
SUCH...THINK STORMS WILL BE SURFACE-BASED INTO THE CT RVR VLY BUT
BECOME ELEVATED THEREAFTER /UNLESS CLEARING CAN PROCEED FURTHER E/.

ITS PLAUSIBLE SOME OF THESE STORMS CAN BE SEVERE /MORESO OVER W-NW
MA AND PSBLY S NH/ WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR OUT OF THE W/SW AROUND 45 KTS /THERE IS ALSO SOME NOTABLE
TURNING WITHIN THE HODOGRAPH PROFILE PER 12Z/15 NAM OVER WRN NEW
ENGLAND...SEE KBDL AND KBAF/. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT DOES PRESENT AN
OUTCOME OF CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS /MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE/ ALONG THE
COLD FRNT WITH A PSBL THREAT OF STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR
VECTORS ARE ORIENTED IN SUCH A MANNER WITH A SLIGHT PERPENDICULAR
COMPONENT...YET MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRNT. LIFT THRU THE
BETTER ICE GROWTH RGNS /ALBEIT THE CAPE WILL BE THIN AND ELONGATED
THRU THE ATMOS COLUMN/ DOES PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL
HAIL AS WELL /UNCERTAIN ABOUT SEVERE UP TO 1 INCH/. YET THE
CHARACTER OF THE CAPE THRU THE ATMOS PROFILE DOES NOT SUPPORT STRONG
UPDRAFTS WITH LITTLE ENTRAINMENT OF THE OUTSIDE ENVIRONMENT.



WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LIMITED CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT AS
THE COLD FRNT SLIDES THRU THE RGN. ANTICIPATE THE COLD FRNT TO BE
THRU THE RGN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WELL OFFSHORE BY MORNING. USHERANCE
OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR /AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE TO THE REAR OF THE
COLD FRNT/ UNDER W/NWLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MON
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
16/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST REMAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE HANDLING A TRANSITION FROM CUTOFF LOW PRES TO THE N TO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATING THE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MON.
THERE ARE A FEW DETAILS STILL TO WORK OUT FOR MON INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY BECAUSE THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES ONCE AGAIN TO THE
N. ECMWF STILL IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN ITS ATTEMPT TO BRING LOW
PRES UP THE E COAST MON...AND HAS FLIP-FLOPPED ON THIS SCENARIO
THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS. THEREFORE...WILL GENERALLY LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE DRY SOLN IN GFS/GEFS MEAN/CMC SOLN THROUGH MON. LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE GENERALLY A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM DUE TO MUCH DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN AVAILABLE MODEL
DATA. SEE DETAILS BELOW FOR HANDLING OF MON NIGHT INTO MID WEEK.

DETAILS...

THU AND FRI...
HIGH PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE W DRAWING
COOL NRN AIRMASS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
ALLOWING THE COLUMN TO REMAIN DRY. H85 TEMPS DIP TO +1 - +3C
OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT. BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO AROUND +5C FRI.
WITH HIGH PRES BEGINNING TO CREST OVER THE AREA THU
NIGHT...CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR DECOUPLING. SO WITH RAD COOLING
AND INVERSION DEVELOPMENT...THE COOL H85 TEMPS WOULD PROMOTE SOME
NEAR FREEZING TEMPS IN NW MA/SRN NH SO FROST HEADLINES ARE STILL A
RISK FOR THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPS IN THE MID TO EVEN UPPER 70S
ARE POSSIBLE WITH FULL MIXING OF THE +5C TEMPS DURING THE DAY.
NOTE THAT NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS /INCLUDING BOS/PVD METROS/ MAY BE
COOLER DUE TO SEA BREEZES.

SAT THROUGH MON...
HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER FROM THE SW. THEREFORE...DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS. H5 HEIGHTS INCREASE TO
AROUND 585DM BY LATE SUN...SO A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE AREA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY E. THEREFORE....EXPECT A
NICE WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
EVEN 80S POSSIBLE SUN AND MON. NOTE THAT AGAIN...NEAR COASTAL
LOCATIONS MAY BE A BIT COOLER DUE TO SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT ATTEMPTS TO
CREST THE RIDGE SUN...WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SOME WEAK
-SHRA ACTIVITY IN EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT
WOULD NEED TO BE OVERCOME. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST...BUT ITS WORTH AT LEAST MENTIONING.

MON NIGHT INTO MID WEEK...
THE KEY FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE HANDLING OF
A TRANSITION FROM STRONG RIDGING DOMINATING THE FA...TO MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH EXACTLY HOW THIS
BREAKS DOWN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SOMEWHAT FROM LATE MON
INTO THE MID WEEK. ATTM...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AND STRONG WLY
THERMAL WIND...GUIDANCE FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY...BUT EACH MODEL
REACHES THIS CONCLUSION IN DIFFERENT WAYS. ECMWF PUSHES IT N FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE GFS SUGGESTS IT APPROACHES FROM THE W.
GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS ARE GENERALLY ALL OVER THE PLACE. GIVEN
THIS...WILL JUST TRANSITION FORECAST TOWARD A MORE UNSETTLED SOLN
WITH MORE CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT THREAT FOR PRECIP UNTIL
THESE FEATURES BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
HANG TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR-VFR THRESHOLDS IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.  THE EXCEPTION WILL
PROBABLY BE THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHERE MOIST FLOW OFF
THE OCEAN MAY KEEP CONDITIONS AT IFR LEVELS.

SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
LATER THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE
COLD FRONT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH THIS MORNING...BUT IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
IFR TO LIFR THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PROBABLY EVEN VFR
LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.  TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAYBE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...

THU THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED BLUSTERY S/SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEND TO
BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-8 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADV CONTINUES WITH
THE EXPECTATION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED GUSTS ARE 20 TO 25
KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. ALL OF THE ENERGY SHOULD BE WELL E OF THE
WATERS AS A COLD FRNT SLIDES THRU THE RGN AROUND MIDNIGHT THURS. SLY
WINDS WILL BACK OUT OF THE W/NW ACCORDINGLY. WAVES TO SUBSIDE IN
LATER PERIODS WITH INVOCATION OF HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THU INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION THU AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST
OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SUN. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5
FT THU WITH SCA/S ENDING. AFTERWORDS WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST
DAYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
EQUIPMENT...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 160741
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
341 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...AND BUILD SLOWLY TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE WEEKEND.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL SET UP
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG
PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA WITH STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA. EXPECT THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED
TO FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FA AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON. CONVECTION WILL FIRST MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
PORTION OF FA EARLY AFTERNOON AND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. MLMUCAPES REACH 1500-2500 J/KG AT 18Z WITH
0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WHILE THIS AREA OF HELICITY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT SHIFTS
EAST ACRS FA...STILL EXPECT VALUES ARND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 200 M2/S2
PARTICULARLY ACRS SE PTN OF FA ARND 00Z. THIS ALSO FITS WITH TIMING
OF A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
EVENING. JET STRUCTURE IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS
FA ENDS UP IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
UPPER JET WITH MID LEVEL JET OF 60+ KTS AIMED DIRECTLY AT FA. H8-H7
LAPSE RATES ALSO VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH 7-9 C/KM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WBZ HEIGHTS ALSO LOWER TO BTWN 7 AND 9 KFT...SO
HAIL WILL ALSO BE PSBL. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 45 MPH AND MORE THAN LIKELY WILL
FORM INTO ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS WHICH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END THIS EVENING
EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM) AS 500HPA TROF
EXITS REGION EARLY IN THE DAY THUR...AND SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE GRTLKS. BRIEF SURGE OF COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO RGN THU..BUT
TEMPS ARE STILL NR NORMALS. THU NT SFC HIGH IS OVER FCA...AND
UNDER CLR SKIES AND LTS WINDS TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY IN COOL DRY
AIR MASS...BUT MID MAY NIGHTS ARE AMONG THE SHORTEST OF THE YEAR
AT UNDER 10 HOURS...AND BY LATE AT NIGHT CI/MI CLOUDS MAY BE
SPILLING OVER EAST SIDE OF 500HPA RIDGE IN WAA MAY ALREADY BE
ARRIVING IN THE FCA. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO 30S AND LOW 40S...AREAS
FROST IN ADIRONDACKS AND S VT.

FRI INTO SUN MASSIVE SHIFT IN UPPER AIR PATTERN OCCURS AS 500HPA
TROF OVER MARITIMES EXISTS...AND 580DM PLUS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS TO
OHIO BY SAT...AND BUILDS TO 586DM OVER NY/PA SUN. THROUGH HIS PERIOD
FCA IS IN STRONG WAA...AND MDL SUG SOME PATCHY MID AND HI CLOUDS
AT TIMES...WITH FAIR MS TO PS DAYS AND M CLR/PC NIGHTS. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS FRI IN 70S...SOARING INTO UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS HAS WEAK SOUTHEAST US CUT OFF SHEARING OUT...AND HOLDS A
RIDGE AT SFC AND 500HPA RIDGE E-W ACROSS THE MID ATLC RGN. IN
ADDITION AT SFC WK CDFNT MOVES INTO ST LAWRENCE VLY AND WASHES
OUT. THIS VIEW IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY PVS HPC PACKAGE AND CURRENT
FCST. ITS A WARM PERIOD WITH ISOLD SHRA. THE GEM IS SIMILAR AT
LEAST MONDAY BY DRIER.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES KEEP IN DRY TILL 00UTC TUE...WITH HALF
THE MEMBERS SUGGESTING 0.1 TO 0.7 IN TUES/WED...AND THE OTHERS
LESSER AMOUNTS OR TOTALLY DRY.

THE OUTLIER ATTM IS THE ECMWF WHICH LATE SUN PHASES SVRL SHORT WVS
INTO STRONGER SE USA CUT OFF. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORMATION A SFC
LOW FORMS OFF HAT AND MVS N INTO NJ. THIS SCENARIO SPREADS
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN INTO FCA MON INTO TUE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
WITH CURRENT THINKING AND POPULATE EFP WITH GMOS/GFS. WHILE THE
ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER ATTM...THIS SOLUTION HAS REARED ITS HEAD SVRL
TIMES THE PAST FEW RUNS IN DIFFERENT MDLS...AND IN TIME THESE
COULD BE GIVING A SIGNAL...AND THE FCST FOR MON/TUE COULD
DETERIORATE.

SINCE WE HAVE LARGE CONSENSUS INTO MON...EFP WILL KEEP IT DRY AND
WARM MONDAY AND RAISE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUE. TEMPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIFR AS WELL. STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP
CIGS AND VSBYS LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN
VERY MOIST AFTER HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS THE AREA OF TUESDAY. THE LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL ONLY SLOWLY LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. AFTER 14Z-15Z WEDNESDAY...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD LIFT TO VFR.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES APPROACHES THE TAF SITES
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND WHILE TOO UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES HAVE ADDED SHRA TO THE
TAFS STARTING BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z AND THESE SHOULD LAST UNTIL EARLY
EVENING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...
WED NT-SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING INTO THE NEW WEEK.
AFTER THE RECENT RATHER WET PERIOD THERE SHOULD BE NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY IN SHOWERS WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME WITHIN BANK RISES TODAY. OTHERWISE OUR WEATHER
WILL BE DRY THURSDAY INTO THE NEW WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO
RECEDE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 160733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...AND BUILD SLOWLY TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE WEEKEND.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL SET UP
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG PREVAILED
ACROSS THE FA WITH STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA. EXPECT THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA. STILL EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID TO UPPER 50S.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT AN ACTIVE DAY AND EARLY EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FA AS THE AFTERNOON
WEARS ON. FIRST ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA AND BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. MLMUCAPES REACH 1500-2500
J/KG AT 18Z WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THIS AREA OF HELICITY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT
SHIFTS EAST ACRS FA...STILL EXPECT VALUES ARND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 200
M2/S2 PARTICULARLY ACRS SE PTN OF FA ARND 00Z. THIS ALSO FITS WITH
TIMING OF A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
EVENING. JET STRUCTURE IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS
FA ENDS UP IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
UPPER JET WITH MID LEVEL JET OF 60+ KTS AIMED DIRECTLY AT FA. H8-H7
LAPSE RATES ALSO VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH 7-9 C/KM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WBZ HEIGHTS ALSO LOWER TO BTWN 7 AND 9 KFT...SO
HAIL WILL ALSO BE PSBL. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 45 MPH AND MORE THAN LIKELY WILL
FORM INTO ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS WHICH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HWO. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE LOWER
70S TO LOWER 80S. ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END THIS
EVENING EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPING AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM) AS 500HPA TROF
EXITS REGION EARLY IN THE DAY THUR...AND SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE GRTLKS. BRIEF SURGE OF COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO RGN THU..BUT
TEMPS ARE STILL NR NORMALS. THU NT SFC HIGH IS OVER FCA...AND
UNDER CLR SKIES AND LTS WINDS TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY IN COOL DRY
AIR MASS...BUT MID MAY NIGHTS ARE AMONG THE SHORTEST OF THE YEAR
AT UNDER 10 HOURS...AND BY LATE AT NIGHT CI/MI CLOUDS MAY BE
SPILLING OVER EAST SIDE OF 500HPA RIDGE IN WAA MAY ALREADY BE
ARRIVING IN THE FCA. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO 30S AND LOW 40S...AREAS
FROST IN ADIRONDACKS AND S VT.

FRI INTO SUN MASSIVE SHIFT IN UPPER AIR PATTERN OCCURS AS 500HPA
TROF OVER MARITIMES EXISTS...AND 580DM PLUS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS TO
OHIO BY SAT...AND BUILDS TO 586DM OVER NY/PA SUN. THROUGH HIS PERIOD
FCA IS IN STRONG WAA...AND MDL SUG SOME PATCHY MID AND HI CLOUDS
AT TIMES...WITH FAIR MS TO PS DAYS AND M CLR/PC NIGHTS. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS FRI IN 70S...SOARING INTO UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DURING THIS PERIOD THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS HAS WEAK SOUTHEAST US CUT OFF SHEARING OUT...AND HOLDS A
RIDGE AT SFC AND 500HPA RIDGE E-W ACROSS THE MID ATLC RGN. IN
ADDITION AT SFC WK CDFNT MOVES INTO ST LAWRENCE VLY AND WASHES
OUT. THIS VIEW IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY PVS HPC PACKAGE AND CURRENT
FCST. ITS A WARM PERIOD WITH ISOLD SHRA. THE GEM IS SIMILAR AT
LEAST MONDAY BY DRIER.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES KEEP IN DRY TILL 00UTC TUE...WITH HALF
THE MEMBERS SUGGESTING 0.1 TO 0.7 IN TUES/WED...AND THE OTHERS
LESSER AMOUNTS OR TOTALLY DRY.

THE OUTLIER ATT IS THE ECMWF WHICH LATE SUN PHASES SVRL SHORT WVS
INTO STRONGER SE USA CUT OFF. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORMATION A SFC
LOW FORMS OFF HAT AND MVS N INTO NJ. THIS SCENARIO SPREADS
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN INTO FCA MON INTO TUE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
WITH CURRENT THINKING AND POPULATE EFP WITH GMOS/GFS. WHILE THE
ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER ATTM...THIS SOLUTION HAS REARED ITS HEAD SVRL
TIMES THE PAST FEW RUNS IN DIFFERENT MDLS...AND IN TIME THESE
COULD BE GIVING A SIGNAL...AND THE FCST FOR MON/TUE COULD
DETERIORATE.

SINCE WE HAVE LARGE CONSENSUS INTO MON...EFP WILL KEEP IT DRY AND
WARM MONDAY AND RAISE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUE. TEMPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIFR AS WELL. STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP
CIGS AND VSBYS LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN
VERY MOIST AFTER HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS THE AREA OF TUESDAY. THE LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL ONLY SLOWLY LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. AFTER 14Z-15Z WEDNESDAY...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD LIFT TO VFR.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES APPROACHES THE TAF SITES
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND WHILE TOO UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES HAVE ADDED SHRA TO THE
TAFS STARTING BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z AND THESE SHOULD LAST UNTIL EARLY
EVENING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...
WED NT-SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING INTO THE NEW WEEK.
AFTER THE RECENT RATHER WET PERIOD THERE SHOULD BE NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY IN SHOWERS WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME WITHIN BANK RISES TODAY. OTHERWISE OUR WEATHER
WILL BE DRY THURSDAY INTO THE NEW WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO
RECEDE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 160625
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...AND BUILD SLOWLY TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE WEEKEND.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL SET UP
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG PREVAILED
ACROSS THE FA WITH STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA. EXPECT THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA. STILL EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID TO UPPER 50S.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT AN ACTIVE DAY AND EARLY EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FA AS THE AFTERNOON
WEARS ON. FIRST ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA AND BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. MLMUCAPES REACH 1500-2500
J/KG AT 18Z WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THIS AREA OF HELICITY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT
SHIFTS EAST ACRS FA...STILL EXPECT VALUES ARND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 200
M2/S2 PARTICULARLY ACRS SE PTN OF FA ARND 00Z. THIS ALSO FITS WITH
TIMING OF A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
EVENING. JET STRUCTURE IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS
FA ENDS UP IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
UPPER JET WITH MID LEVEL JET OF 60+ KTS AIMED DIRECTLY AT FA. H8-H7
LAPSE RATES ALSO VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH 7-9 C/KM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WBZ HEIGHTS ALSO LOWER TO BTWN 7 AND 9 KFT...SO
HAIL WILL ALSO BE PSBL. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 45 MPH AND MORE THAN LIKELY WILL
FORM INTO ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS WHICH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HWO. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE LOWER
70S TO LOWER 80S. ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END THIS
EVENING EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPING AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM) AS 500HPA TROF
EXITS REGION EARLY IN THE DAY THUR...AND SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE GRTLKS. BRIEF SURGE OF COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO RGN THU..BUT
TEMPS ARE STILL NR NORMALS. THU NT SFC HIGH IS OVER FCA...AND
UNDER CLR SKIES AND LTS WINDS TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY IN COOL DRY
AIR MASS...BUT MID MAY NIGHTS ARE AMONG THE SHORTEST OF THE YEAR AT
UNDER 10 HOURS...AND BY LATE AT NIGHT CI/MI CLOUDS MAY BE SPILLING
OVER EAST SIDE OF 500HPA RIDGE IN WAA MAY ALREADY BE ARRIVING IN
THE FCA. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO 30S AND LOW 40S...AREAS FROST IN
ADIRONDACKS AND S VT.

FRI INTO SUN MASSIVE SHIFT IN UPPER AIR PATTERN OCCURS AS 500HPA
TROF OVER MARITIMES EXISTS...AND 580DM PLUS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS TO
OHIO BY SAT...AND BUILDS TO 586DM OVER NY/PA SUN. THROUGH HIS PERIOD
FCA IS IN STRONG WAA...AND MDL SUG SOME PATCHY MID AND HI CLOUDS
AT TIMES...WITH FAIR MS TO PS DAYS AND M CLR/PC NIGHTS. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS FRI IN 70S...SOARING INTO UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEANWHILE...WE WILL BE MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HERE...THE
MODEL SUITE DIVERGES WITH PLACEMENT...MOISTURE CONTENT...AND
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE LATEST ECMWF IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH TRACKING THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD WITH AN INCREASE
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS LATER MONDAY. THE GFS HANGS ONTO THE RIDGE
LONGER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. THE GGEM IS IN CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...WITH A FURTHER INLAND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. PER HPC COLLABORATION AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIFR AS WELL. STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP
CIGS AND VSBYS LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN
VERY MOIST AFTER HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS THE AREA OF TUESDAY. THE LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL ONLY SLOWLY LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. AFTER 14Z-15Z WEDNESDAY...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD LIFT TO VFR.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES APPROACHES THE TAF SITES
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND WHILE TOO UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES HAVE ADDED SHRA TO THE
TAFS STARTING BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z AND THESE SHOULD LAST UNTIL EARLY
EVENING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...
WED NT-SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING INTO THE NEW WEEK.
AFTER THE RECENT RATHER WET PERIOD THERE SHOULD BE NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE NEW WEEK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY IN SHOWERS WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME WITHIN BANK RISES TODAY. OTHERWISE OUR WEATHER
WILL BE DRY THURSDAY INTO THE NEW WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO
RECEDE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBOX 160605
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
205 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER FROM
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOW CONFINED TO
MAINLY THE CAPE AND ISLANDS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE REST OF
THE REGION WAS DRY WITH SOME PATCHY FOG.

WHILE INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SUNRISE...ITS POSSIBLE THAT A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES BACK ONTO RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE/NEAR TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MOVING INTO THIS REGION NEAR OR
AFTER SUNRISE FOR A FEW HORUS.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING.
ITS POSSIBLE THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

OVRNGT WET WX SHOULD SLIDE GRADUALLY OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING PD
WITH THE ATTENDANT FRNTL BOUNDARY PRESSING EWD AND STALLING AGAINST
THE STRONGER ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES. BUT AS THE DISTURBED WX
SLIDES E...SWLY FLOW INCREASES FROM THE W PROMOTING WAA THRU THE
LOW-MID LVLS ACROSS THE RGN. FEEL LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL HANG
ACROSS THE RGN RESULTING IN LIMITED MIXING DUE TO AN INVERSION
ALOFT. WHILE THE WRN ZONES MAY CLEAR...LOW STRATUS WILL LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
NRN STREAM SHRTWV AND ATTENDANT COLD FRNT.

ACROSS PA/NY WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED...A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
STEEP LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN STREAM
COLD FRNT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
RVR VLY /NRN NEW ENGLAND/. ACCORDINGLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COLD FRNT INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
BY THE AFTN HRS. AM SPECULATIVE AS TO HOW FAR E THESE STORMS WILL
PROGRESS WITH THE FEELING THAT THE RGN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE. AS
SUCH...THINK STORMS WILL BE SURFACE-BASED INTO THE CT RVR VLY BUT
BECOME ELEVATED THEREAFTER /UNLESS CLEARING CAN PROCEED FURTHER E/.

ITS PLAUSIBLE SOME OF THESE STORMS CAN BE SEVERE /MORESO OVER W-NW
MA AND PSBLY S NH/ WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR OUT OF THE W/SW AROUND 45 KTS /THERE IS ALSO SOME NOTABLE
TURNING WITHIN THE HODOGRAPH PROFILE PER 12Z/15 NAM OVER WRN NEW
ENGLAND...SEE KBDL AND KBAF/. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT DOES PRESENT AN
OUTCOME OF CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS /MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE/ ALONG THE
COLD FRNT WITH A PSBL THREAT OF STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR
VECTORS ARE ORIENTED IN SUCH A MANNER WITH A SLIGHT PERPENDICULAR
COMPONENT...YET MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRNT. LIFT THRU THE
BETTER ICE GROWTH RGNS /ALBEIT THE CAPE WILL BE THIN AND ELONGATED
THRU THE ATMOS COLUMN/ DOES PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL
HAIL AS WELL /UNCERTAIN ABOUT SEVERE UP TO 1 INCH/. YET THE
CHARACTER OF THE CAPE THRU THE ATMOS PROFILE DOES NOT SUPPORT STRONG
UPDRAFTS WITH LITTLE ENTRAINMENT OF THE OUTSIDE ENVIRONMENT.



WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LIMITED CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT AS
THE COLD FRNT SLIDES THRU THE RGN. ANTICIPATE THE COLD FRNT TO BE
THRU THE RGN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WELL OFFSHORE BY MORNING. USHERANCE
OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR /AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE TO THE REAR OF THE
COLD FRNT/ UNDER W/NWLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MON
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE

DETAILS...

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH OF EXTENDED
FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ONCE SYSTEM HEADS OFFSHORE
THU AND CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT/SUN. STILL LOOKING AT
POSSIBILITY OF FROST ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING AS PATTERN FAVORS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS GFS TRIES TO GENERATE
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR...MAINLY AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH. THIS APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

EARLY NEXT WEEK CONFIDENCE DECREASES A BIT AS SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGE HEAD OFFSHORE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM GREAT LAKES
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP E COAST SHOULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TUE...IN LINE WITH 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION. HOWEVER 12Z GFS HANGS ON TO RIDGING LONGER AND DELAYS
EFFECTS OF THIS FRONT AND SUBTROPICAL LOW TO OUR S UNTIL MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
HANG TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR-VFR THRESHOLDS IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.  THE EXCEPTION WILL
PROBABLY BE THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHERE MOIST FLOW OFF
THE OCEAN MAY KEEP CONDITIONS AT IFR LEVELS.

SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
LATER THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE
COLD FRONT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH THIS MORNING...BUT IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
IFR TO LIFR THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PROBABLY EVEN VFR
LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.  TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAYBE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...

THU THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED BLUSTERY S/SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEND TO
BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-8 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADV CONTINUES WITH
THE EXPECTATION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED GUSTS ARE 20 TO 25
KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. ALL OF THE ENERGY SHOULD BE WELL E OF THE
WATERS AS A COLD FRNT SLIDES THRU THE RGN AROUND MIDNIGHT THURS. SLY
WINDS WILL BACK OUT OF THE W/NW ACCORDINGLY. WAVES TO SUBSIDE IN
LATER PERIODS WITH INVOCATION OF HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THU INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION THU AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST
OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SUN. DIMINISHING WINDS/SEAS ANTICIPATED
THU WITH LIGHT WINDS/FLAT SEAS AND SEA BREEZES OVER WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...FRANK/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
EQUIPMENT...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 160550
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...AND BUILD SLOWLY TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE WEEKEND.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL SET UP
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG PREVAILED
ACROSS THE FA WITH STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA. EXPECT THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA. STILL EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID TO UPPER 50S.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT AN ACTIVE DAY AND EARLY EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FA AS THE AFTERNOON
WEARS ON. FIRST ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA AND BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. MLMUCAPES REACH 1500-2500
J/KG AT 18Z WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THIS AREA OF HELICITY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT
SHIFTS EAST ACRS FA...STILL EXPECT VALUES ARND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 200
M2/S2 PARTICULARLY ACRS SE PTN OF FA ARND 00Z. THIS ALSO FITS WITH
TIMING OF A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
EVENING. JET STRUCTURE IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS
FA ENDS UP IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
UPPER JET WITH MID LEVEL JET OF 60+ KTS AIMED DIRECTLY AT FA. H8-H7
LAPSE RATES ALSO VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH 7-9 C/KM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WBZ HEIGHTS ALSO LOWER TO BTWN 7 AND 9 KFT...SO
HAIL WILL ALSO BE PSBL. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 45 MPH AND MORE THAN LIKELY WILL
FORM INTO ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS WHICH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HWO. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE LOWER
70S TO LOWER 80S. ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END THIS
EVENING EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPING AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM) AS 500HPA TROF
EXITS REGION EARLY IN THE DAY THUR...AND SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE GRTLKS. BRIEF SURGE OF COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO RGN THU..BUT
TEMPS ARE STILL NR NORMALS. THU NT SFC HIGH IS OVER FCA...AND
UNDER CLR SKIES AND LTS WINDS TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY IN COOL DRY
AIRMASS...BUT MID MAY NIGHTS ARE AMONG THE SHORTEST OF THE YEAR AT
UNDER 10 HOURS...AND BY LATE AT NIGHT CI/MI CLOUDS SPILLING OVER
EAST SIDE OF 500HPA RIDGE IN WAA MAY ALREADY BE ARRIVING IN THE
FCA. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO 30S AND LOW 40S...SCT FROST IN FAIR N
POSSIBLE IF CLOUDS DONT MATERIALIZE.

FRI INTO SUN MASSIVE SHIFT IN UPPER AIR PATTERN OCCURS AS 500HPA
TROF OVER MARITIMES EXISTS...AND 580DM PLUS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS TO
OHIO BY SAT...AND BUILDS TO 586DM OVER NY/PA SUN. THROUGH HIS PERIOD
FCA IS IN STRONG WAA...AND MDL SUG SOME PATCHY MID AND HI CLOUDS
AT TIMES...WITH FAIR MS TO PS DAYS M CLR/PC NIGHTS. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS FRI IN 70S...SOARING INTO UPPER 70S AND 80S FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEANWHILE...WE WILL BE MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HERE...THE
MODEL SUITE DIVERGES WITH PLACEMENT...MOISTURE CONTENT...AND
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE LATEST ECMWF IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH TRACKING THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD WITH AN INCREASE
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS LATER MONDAY. THE GFS HANGS ONTO THE RIDGE
LONGER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. THE GGEM IS IN CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...WITH A FURTHER INLAND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. PER HPC COLLABORATION AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIFR AS WELL. STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP
CIGS AND VSBYS LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN
VERY MOIST AFTER HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS THE AREA OF TUESDAY. THE LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL ONLY SLOWLY LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. AFTER 14Z-15Z WEDNESDAY...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD LIFT TO VFR.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES APPROACHES THE TAF SITES
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND WHILE TOO UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES HAVE ADDED SHRA TO THE
TAFS STARTING BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z AND THESE SHOULD LAST UNTIL EARLY
EVENING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...
WED NT-SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE RAIN ENDING. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT BUT RH VALUES WILL
APPROACH 100 PERCENT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND. RH VALUES WILL
LOWER BRIEFLY TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT THURSDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL VEER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO
15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN INCH TO INCH OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED SO FAR
TODAY WITH A LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE CATSKILLS. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE PAST 24-48 HRS
HAVE BEEN COMMON OVER MOST OF THE HSA. SOME WITHIN BANK RISES /1 TO 3
FOOT RISES/ HAVE OCCURRED ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS. NO FLOODING
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC HYDROGRAPH
FORECASTS. A FEW POINTS HAVE REACHED THE ALERT OR CAUTION STAGE
     BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 160522
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...AND BUILD SLOWLY TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE WEEKEND.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL SET UP
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF FOG PREVAILED
ACROSS THE FA WITH STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA. EXPECT THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA. STILL EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID TO UPPER 50S.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT AN ACTIVE DAY AND EARLY EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FA AS THE AFTERNOON
WEARS ON. FIRST ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTION OF FA AND BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. MLMUCAPES REACH 1500-2500
J/KG AT 18Z WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THIS AREA OF HELICITY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT
SHIFTS EAST ACRS FA...STILL EXPECT VALUES ARND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 200
M2/S2 PARTICULARLY ACRS SE PTN OF FA ARND 00Z. THIS ALSO FITS WITH
TIMING OF A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WHICH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MID
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
EVENING. JET STRUCTURE IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS
FA ENDS UP IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
UPPER JET WITH MID LEVEL JET OF 60+ KTS AIMED DIRECTLY AT FA. H8-H7
LAPSE RATES ALSO VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH 7-9 C/KM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WBZ HEIGHTS ALSO LOWER TO BTWN 7 AND 9 KFT...SO
HAIL WILL ALSO BE PSBL. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 45 MPH AND MORE THAN LIKELY WILL
FORM INTO ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS WHICH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HWO. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE LOWER
70S TO LOWER 80S. ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END THIS
EVENING EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPING AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM) AS 500HPA TROF
EXITS REGION EARLY IN THE DAY THUR...AND SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE GRTLKS. BRIEF SURGE OF COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO RGN THU..BUT
TEMPS ARE STILL NR NORMALS. THU NT SFC HIGH IS OVER FCA...AND
UNDER CLR SKIES AND LTS WINDS TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY IN COOL DRY
AIRMASS...BUT MID MAY NIGHTS ARE AMONG THE SHORTEST OF THE YEAR AT
UNDER 10 HOURS...AND BY LATE AT NIGHT CI/MI CLOUDS SPILLING OVER
EAST SIDE OF 500HPA RIDGE IN WAA MAY ALREADY BE ARRIVING IN THE
FCA. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO 30S AND LOW 40S...SCT FROST IN FAIR N
POSSIBLE IF CLOUDS DONT MATERIALIZE.

FRI INTO SUN MASSIVE SHIFT IN UPPER AIR PATTERN OCCURS AS 500HPA
TROF OVER MARITIMES EXISTS...AND 580DM PLUS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS TO
OHIO BY SAT...AND BUILDS TO 586DM OVER NY/PA SUN. THROUGH HIS PERIOD
FCA IS IN STRONG WAA...AND MDL SUG SOME PATCHY MID AND HI CLOUDS
AT TIMES...WITH FAIR MS TO PS DAYS M CLR/PC NIGHTS. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS FRI IN 70S...SOARING INTO UPPER 70S AND 80S FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEANWHILE...WE WILL BE MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HERE...THE
MODEL SUITE DIVERGES WITH PLACEMENT...MOISTURE CONTENT...AND
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE LATEST ECMWF IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH TRACKING THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD WITH AN INCREASE
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS LATER MONDAY. THE GFS HANGS ONTO THE RIDGE
LONGER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. THE GGEM IS IN CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...WITH A FURTHER INLAND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. PER HPC COLLABORATION AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND MAYBE VIS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR THE 4 TAF
SITES.  ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF WHEN THESE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL BE
MET.  PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BUFR PROFILES...WE WILL PLACE
THESE LOWER RESTRICTIONS TOWARD 03Z.  THEN A TEMPO GROUP FOR
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS LOW STRATUS DECK WILL
SLOWLY LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.
AFTER 14Z-15Z WEDNESDAY...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR.

THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
AN INCREASED THREAT FOR CONVECTION.  AT THIS TIME...TOO LOW
CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 5 KT TONIGHT...THEN BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...
WED NT-SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE RAIN ENDING. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT BUT RH VALUES WILL
APPROACH 100 PERCENT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND. RH VALUES WILL
LOWER BRIEFLY TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT THURSDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL VEER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO
15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN INCH TO INCH OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED SO FAR
TODAY WITH A LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE CATSKILLS. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE PAST 24-48 HRS
HAVE BEEN COMMON OVER MOST OF THE HSA. SOME WITHIN BANK RISES /1 TO 3
FOOT RISES/ HAVE OCCURRED ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS. NO FLOODING
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC HYDROGRAPH
FORECASTS. A FEW POINTS HAVE REACHED THE ALERT OR CAUTION STAGE
     BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 160511
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...AND BUILD SLOWLY TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE WEEKEND.
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL SET UP
INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM...SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED AND HAVE DROPPED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE FOG
FORMATION WHICH IS CURRENTLY COVERED IN THE GRIDS. PATCHY DENSE
FOG WAS SEEN AND OBSERVED IN PORTIONS OF DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
WITH AN SPS ISSUED.

A SFC TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST...LONG
ISLAND...AND NJ TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF AN ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN EXTREME OF THE CWA...AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL MATERIALIZE IN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-
WAVE OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SRN ONTARIO SEEN ON THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. THIS POTENT SHORT-WAVE AND THE ATTENDANT
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE THE KEEP FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW. MORE DISCUSSION ON
THAT IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL MILD WITH THE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WITH
GENERALLY 50S...AND A FEW MID TO U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS.

TOMORROW...EXTENSIVE COORDINATION WAS DONE WITH SPC...AND THE
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES FOR THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR TOMORROW. THERE WAS A CONSENSUS FOR AN UPGRADE TO A
SLIGHT RISK FOR MOST OF THE ALY FCST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS POTENTIALLY THE MAIN THREATS.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY PM. CLEARING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND
ITS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD
BURN OFF IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING QUICKLY. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS FALLS WILL BE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-
WAVE IN THE EARLY PM WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSES IN THE
H850-500/H700-H500 LAYER TO 6.5/7+C/KM. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW
TWO INSTABILITY AXES ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 18Z. ONE ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES...AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT. SFC DEWPTS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO POSSIBLY L60S. SBCAPES ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY
GREATER. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS...AND
THE FLOW BECOMES UNI-DIRECTIONAL BY THE MID TO LATE PM. ALSO...A
FAIRLY SHARP LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT INCREASES TO 15-20K BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE DCAPE VALUES ON THE GFS/NAM AHEAD OF THE STRONG
COLD FRONT RANGE FROM 1000-1500+ J/KG ! THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS
AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE BTWN 18-22Z.  THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN
H500 JET STREAK /60-70 KTS/ WILL ALSO BE POKING INTO THE FCST AREA
TO HELP ENHANCE THE SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR THE CONVECTION.

THE THREAT IS THERE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS
MULTICELLS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A LINE OR TWO WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS BY THE MID TO LATE PM. THE NCEP 4-KM WRF-NMM BASE REF
PRODUCT DONE FOR SPC SHOWS A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE
SWEEPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA BTWN 18Z-00Z. WE HAVE MENTIONED IN
THE TEXT PRODUCTS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT SOME MAY BE
SEVERE. IN THE HWO WE WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL THREATS.
ALSO...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO. SPC
HAS THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK AND SRN DACKS OUT OF THE SLIGHT RISK. WE
BELIEVE THE THREAT IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

FINALLY...A QUICK CHECK OF THE LOCAL MAGLENTA EQUATION INDICATES A
MAJOR SEVERE EVENT IS POSSIBLE. THE CONDITIONAL EQUATION USED THE
FOLLOWING CONSERVATIVE VALUES FROM ALBANY FROM THE NAM:

SBCAPE=1000 J/KG
MAX SOUNDING WIND=85 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=30 KTS
SRH (0-3 KM)=100 (M/S)2

THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BE THE FIRST SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SINCE
EARLY LAST FALL /LATE SEPT/.

THE POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL END BETWEEN 6-9 PM.
MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO NEAR 80F IN THE VALLEYS
WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO 0 TO +5C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR DUE TO THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE U30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM) AS 500HPA TROF
EXITS REGION EARLY IN THE DAY THUR...AND SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE GRTLKS. BRIEF SURGE OF COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO RGN THU..BUT
TEMPS ARE STILL NR NORMALS. THU NT SFC HIGH IS OVER FCA...AND
UNDER CLR SKIES AND LTS WINDS TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY IN COOL DRY
AIRMASS...BUT MID MAY NIGHTS ARE AMONG THE SHORTEST OF THE YEAR AT
UNDER 10 HOURS...AND BY LATE AT NIGHT CI/MI CLOUDS SPILLING OVER
EAST SIDE OF 500HPA RIDGE IN WAA MAY ALREADY BE ARRIVING IN THE
FCA. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO 30S AND LOW 40S...SCT FROST IN FAIR N
POSSIBLE IF CLODUS DONT MATERIALIZE.

FRI INTO SUN MASSIVE SHIFT IN UPPER AIR PATTERN OCCURS AS 500HPA
TROF OVER MARTIMES EXISTS...AND 580DM PLUS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS TO
OHIO BY SAT...AND BUILDS TO 586DM OVER NY/PA SUN. THROUGH HIS PERIOD
FCA IS IN STRONG WAA...AND MDL SUG SOME PATCHY MID AND HI CLOUDS
AT TIMES...WITH FAIR MS TO PS DAYS M CLR/PC NIGHTS. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHLY ABV NORMALS FRI IN 70S...SOARING INTO UPPER 70S AND 80S FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEANWHILE...WE WILL BE MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HERE...THE
MODEL SUITE DIVERGES WITH PLACEMENT...MOISTURE CONTENT...AND
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE LATEST ECMWF IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH TRACKING THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD WITH AN INCREASE
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS LATER MONDAY. THE GFS HANGS ONTO THE RIDGE
LONGER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. THE GGEM IS IN CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...WITH A FURTHER INLAND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. PER HPC COLLABORATION AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND MAYBE VIS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR THE 4 TAF
SITES.  ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF WHEN THESE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL BE
MET.  PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BUFR PROFILES...WE WILL PLACE
THESE LOWER RESTRICTIONS TOWARD 03Z.  THEN A TEMPO GROUP FOR
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS LOW STRATUS DECK WILL
SLOWLY LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.
AFTER 14Z-15Z WEDNESDAY...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR.

THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
AN INCREASED THREAT FOR CONVECTION.  AT THIS TIME...TOO LOW
CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 5 KT TONIGHT...THEN BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...
WED NT-SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE RAIN ENDING. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT BUT RH VALUES WILL
APPROACH 100 PERCENT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND. RH VALUES WILL
LOWER BRIEFLY TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT THURSDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL VEER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO
15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN INCH TO INCH OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED SO FAR
TODAY WITH A LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE CATSKILLS. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE PAST 24-48 HRS
HAVE BEEN COMMON OVER MOST OF THE HSA. SOME WITHIN BANK RISES /1 TO 3
FOOT RISES/ HAVE OCCURRED ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS. NO FLOODING
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC HYDROGRAPH
FORECASTS. A FEW POINTS HAVE REACHED THE ALERT OR CAUTION STAGE
     BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 160258
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1058 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE RAIN ENDING. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM...SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED AND HAVE DROPPED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE FOG
FORMATION WHICH IS CURRENTLY COVERED IN THE GRIDS. PATCHY DENSE
FOG WAS SEEN AND OBSERVED IN PORTIONS OF DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
WITH AN SPS ISSUED.

AS OF 730 PM...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WAS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.  MEANWHILE...DUAL POL RADAR WAS
SUGGESTING A REGION OF RAIN/DRIZZLE ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION.  LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY
OF THE DAY DID REVEAL SOME IMPROVEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF HERKIMER
COUNTY WITH BINOVCS.  SO THIS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS ALIGNED
WELL WITH THE SHOWERS.  LATEST RAP/HRRR SUGGEST THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING.  WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND THIS BOUNDARY NOT MOVING TOO MUCH...EXPECTATION IS TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CLOUDY-MOCLDY SKIES.  FURTHERMORE...STRATUS
SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG WITH THE INCREASE POTENTIAL OF FOG FORMATION
PER THE UPS CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE.

AS OF 415 PM...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH
OF THE REGION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND EAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE HAS QUICKLY MOVED ACROSS CNTRL-ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE HAS QUICKLY MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN THE
SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AND CNTRL NY. ANY
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN HARD PRESSED TO DEVELOP...SO THE
ISOLATED THUNDER HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST.

A SFC TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST...LONG
ISLAND...AND NJ TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF AN ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN EXTREME OF THE CWA...AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL MATERIALIZE IN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-
WAVE OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SRN ONTARIO SEEN ON THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. THIS POTENT SHORT-WAVE AND THE ATTENDANT
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE THE KEEP FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW. MORE DISCUSSION ON
THAT IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL MILD WITH THE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WITH
GENERALLY 50S...AND A FEW MID TO U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...EXTENSIVE COORDINATION WAS DONE WITH SPC...AND THE
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES FOR THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR TOMORROW. THERE WAS A CONSENSUS FOR AN UPGRADE TO A
SLIGHT RISK FOR MOST OF THE ALY FCST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS POTENTIALLY THE MAIN THREATS.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY PM. CLEARING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND
ITS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD
BURN OFF IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING QUICKLY. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS FALLS WILL BE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-
WAVE IN THE EARLY PM WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSES IN THE
H850-500/H700-H500 LAYER TO 6.5/7+C/KM. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW
TWO INSTABILITY AXES ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 18Z. ONE ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES...AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT. SFC DEWPTS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO POSSIBLY L60S. SBCAPES ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY
GREATER. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS...AND
THE FLOW BECOMES UNI-DIRECTIONAL BY THE MID TO LATE PM. ALSO...A
FAIRLY SHARP LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT INCREASES TO 15-20K BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE DCAPE VALUES ON THE GFS/NAM AHEAD OF THE STRONG
COLD FRONT RANGE FROM 1000-1500+ J/KG ! THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS
AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE BTWN 18-22Z.  THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN
H500 JET STREAK /60-70 KTS/ WILL ALSO BE POKING INTO THE FCST AREA
TO HELP ENHANCE THE SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR THE CONVECTION.

THE THREAT IS THERE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS
MULTICELLS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A LINE OR TWO WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS BY THE MID TO LATE PM. THE NCEP 4-KM WRF-NMM BASE REF
PRODUCT DONE FOR SPC SHOWS A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE
SWEEPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA BTWN 18Z-00Z. WE HAVE MENTIONED IN
THE TEXT PRODUCTS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT SOME MAY BE
SEVERE. IN THE HWO WE WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL THREATS.
ALSO...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO. SPC
HAS THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK AND SRN DACKS OUT OF THE SLIGHT RISK. WE
BELIEVE THE THREAT IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

FINALLY...A QUICK CHECK OF THE LOCAL MAGLENTA EQUATION INDICATES A
MAJOR SEVERE EVENT IS POSSIBLE. THE CONDITIONAL EQUATION USED THE
FOLLOWING CONSERVATIVE VALUES FROM ALBANY FROM THE NAM:

SBCAPE=1000 J/KG
MAX SOUNDING WIND=85 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=30 KTS
SRH (0-3 KM)=100 (M/S)2

THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BE THE FIRST SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SINCE
EARLY LAST FALL /LATE SEPT/.

THE POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL END BETWEEN 6-9 PM.
MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO NEAR 80F IN THE VALLEYS
WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO 0 TO +5C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR DUE TO THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE U30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

THURSDAY...A BEAUTIFUL MID MAY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A FEW-SCT
FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND. DESPITE H850 TEMPS OF +2 TO
+5C...DECENT MIXING TO H850-800 SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 60-65F OVER THE MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER NY AND PA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY OCCUR. SOME FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS
REGION. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO M30S WILL BE COMMON THERE. LOWER TO
M40S ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION..EXCEPT THE SRN
GREENS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE SOME U30S
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WE TRANSITION FROM
THE COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY TO BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE PRESSURES FOR THE WEEKEND.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLE TO ABOVE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

MEANWHILE...WE WILL BE MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATER INTO THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  HERE...THE MODEL SUITE DIVERGES WITH
PLACEMENT...MOISTURE CONTENT...AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE LATEST ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH TRACKING THIS SYSTEM
NORTHWARD WITH AN INCREASE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS LATER MONDAY.  THE
GFS HANGS ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS.
THE GGEM IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...WITH A FURTHER
INLAND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.  PER HPC COLLABORATION AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...WE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND MAYBE VIS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR THE 4 TAF
SITES.  ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF WHEN THESE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL BE
MET.  PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BUFR PROFILES...WE WILL PLACE
THESE LOWER RESTRICTIONS TOWARD 03Z.  THEN A TEMPO GROUP FOR
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS LOW STRATUS DECK WILL
SLOWLY LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.
AFTER 14Z-15Z WEDNESDAY...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR.

THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
AN INCREASED THREAT FOR CONVECTION.  AT THIS TIME...TOO LOW
CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 5 KT TONIGHT...THEN BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...
WED NT-SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE RAIN ENDING. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT BUT RH VALUES WILL
APPROACH 100 PERCENT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND. RH VALUES WILL
LOWER BRIEFLY TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT THURSDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL VEER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO
15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN INCH TO INCH OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED SO FAR
TODAY WITH A LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE CATSKILLS. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE PAST 24-48 HRS
HAVE BEEN COMMON OVER MOST OF THE HSA. SOME WITHIN BANK RISES /1 TO 3
FOOT RISES/ HAVE OCCURRED ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS. NO FLOODING
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC HYDROGRAPH
FORECASTS. A FEW POINTS HAVE REACHED THE ALERT OR CAUTION STAGE
     BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 160231
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER FROM
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

THE STEADIEST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED INTO RHODE
ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA LATE THIS EVENING.  THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE
FOR THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN AXIS EXPECTED TO SET UP ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST.  THIS IS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.  LOW PROBABILITY OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON THE SOUTH COAST.

ACROSS THE INTERIOR...OTHER THAN A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME
DRIZZLE MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. THE FORCING HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THIS REGION.

PATCHY FOG WAS AFFECTING THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE FOR MID MAY.  DO NOT THINK WE
WILL SEE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...SO NO ADVISORY AT THIS POINT BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

OVRNGT WET WX SHOULD SLIDE GRADUALLY OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING PD
WITH THE ATTENDANT FRNTL BOUNDARY PRESSING EWD AND STALLING AGAINST
THE STRONGER ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES. BUT AS THE DISTURBED WX
SLIDES E...SWLY FLOW INCREASES FROM THE W PROMOTING WAA THRU THE
LOW-MID LVLS ACROSS THE RGN. FEEL LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL HANG
ACROSS THE RGN RESULTING IN LIMITED MIXING DUE TO AN INVERSION
ALOFT. WHILE THE WRN ZONES MAY CLEAR...LOW STRATUS WILL LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
NRN STREAM SHRTWV AND ATTENDANT COLD FRNT.

ACROSS PA/NY WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED...A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
STEEP LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN STREAM
COLD FRNT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
RVR VLY /NRN NEW ENGLAND/. ACCORDINGLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COLD FRNT INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
BY THE AFTN HRS. AM SPECULATIVE AS TO HOW FAR E THESE STORMS WILL
PROGRESS WITH THE FEELING THAT THE RGN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE. AS
SUCH...THINK STORMS WILL BE SURFACE-BASED INTO THE CT RVR VLY BUT
BECOME ELEVATED THEREAFTER /UNLESS CLEARING CAN PROCEED FURTHER E/.

ITS PLAUSIBLE SOME OF THESE STORMS CAN BE SEVERE /MORESO OVER W-NW
MA AND PSBLY S NH/ WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR OUT OF THE W/SW AROUND 45 KTS /THERE IS ALSO SOME NOTABLE
TURNING WITHIN THE HODOGRAPH PROFILE PER 12Z/15 NAM OVER WRN NEW
ENGLAND...SEE KBDL AND KBAF/. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT DOES PRESENT AN
OUTCOME OF CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS /MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE/ ALONG THE
COLD FRNT WITH A PSBL THREAT OF STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR
VECTORS ARE ORIENTED IN SUCH A MANNER WITH A SLIGHT PERPENDICULAR
COMPONENT...YET MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRNT. LIFT THRU THE
BETTER ICE GROWTH RGNS /ALBEIT THE CAPE WILL BE THIN AND ELONGATED
THRU THE ATMOS COLUMN/ DOES PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL
HAIL AS WELL /UNCERTAIN ABOUT SEVERE UP TO 1 INCH/. YET THE
CHARACTER OF THE CAPE THRU THE ATMOS PROFILE DOES NOT SUPPORT STRONG
UPDRAFTS WITH LITTLE ENTRAINMENT OF THE OUTSIDE ENVIRONMENT.



WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LIMITED CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT AS
THE COLD FRNT SLIDES THRU THE RGN. ANTICIPATE THE COLD FRNT TO BE
THRU THE RGN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WELL OFFSHORE BY MORNING. USHERANCE
OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR /AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE TO THE REAR OF THE
COLD FRNT/ UNDER W/NWLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MON
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE

DETAILS...

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH OF EXTENDED
FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ONCE SYSTEM HEADS OFFSHORE
THU AND CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT/SUN. STILL LOOKING AT
POSSIBILITY OF FROST ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING AS PATTERN FAVORS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS GFS TRIES TO GENERATE
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR...MAINLY AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH. THIS APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

EARLY NEXT WEEK CONFIDENCE DECREASES A BIT AS SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGE HEAD OFFSHORE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM GREAT LAKES
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP E COAST SHOULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TUE...IN LINE WITH 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION. HOWEVER 12Z GFS HANGS ON TO RIDGING LONGER AND DELAYS
EFFECTS OF THIS FRONT AND SUBTROPICAL LOW TO OUR S UNTIL MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE.  BULK OF THE STEADY
SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND WILL FOCUS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

LOW CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE E OF CT RIVER VALLEY WED...BUT
SHOULD LIFT BY MIDDAY ALONG AND W WITH POSSIBLE TSTMS 19Z WED
TO 00Z THU OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS EVEN A PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS. MLOW CIGS HANGING ON UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. TSTMS NOT
EXPECTED WED.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT EARLY WED
AFTERNOON. TSTMS POSSIBLE 22Z WED-00Z THU.

OUTLOOK...

THU THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONTINUED BLUSTERY S/SE FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WILL LEND TO BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-8 FEET. SMALL
CRAFT ADV CONTINUES WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS ARE 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN AND FOG
TO IMPACT THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT...THE WORST OF WHICH WILL BE
AROUND THE MORNING HRS WITH PSBL VSBYS DOWN TO 1-3 MILES WITH
CONTINUED SLY FLOW. ALL OF THE ENERGY SHOULD BE WELL E OF THE WATERS
AS A COLD FRNT SLIDES THRU THE RGN AROUND MIDNIGHT THURS. SLY WINDS
WILL BACK OUT OF THE W/NW ACCORDINGLY. WAVES TO SUBSIDE IN LATER
PERIODS WITH INVOCATION OF HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THU INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION THU AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST
OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SUN. DIMINISHING WINDS/SEAS ANTICIPATED
THU WITH LIGHT WINDS/FLAT SEAS AND SEA BREEZES OVER WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
EQUIPMENT...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KBOX 160103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
903 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER FROM
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

9 PM UPDATE...

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS COVERED SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN MA AND RHODE
ISLAND THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE/STRONG MID LEVEL
LIFT.  HIGH PWAT VALUES WERE RESULTING IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.  WE
SHOULD SEE THE FOCUS OF THIS ACTIVITY SHIFT MORE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS IS WHERE THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP OVERNIGHT.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF THE
INTERIOR...OTHER THAN A FEW SPOT SHOWERS MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL
LIKELY END UP DRY.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE IF PATCHY FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.  DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE HIGH...SO SOMETHING WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON BUT OUR CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW ESPECIALLY WITH
ALL THE RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

OVRNGT WET WX SHOULD SLIDE GRADUALLY OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING PD
WITH THE ATTENDANT FRNTL BOUNDARY PRESSING EWD AND STALLING AGAINST
THE STRONGER ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES. BUT AS THE DISTURBED WX
SLIDES E...SWLY FLOW INCREASES FROM THE W PROMOTING WAA THRU THE
LOW-MID LVLS ACROSS THE RGN. FEEL LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL HANG
ACROSS THE RGN RESULTING IN LIMITED MIXING DUE TO AN INVERSION
ALOFT. WHILE THE WRN ZONES MAY CLEAR...LOW STRATUS WILL LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
NRN STREAM SHRTWV AND ATTENDANT COLD FRNT.

ACROSS PA/NY WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED...A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
STEEP LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN STREAM
COLD FRNT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
RVR VLY /NRN NEW ENGLAND/. ACCORDINGLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COLD FRNT INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
BY THE AFTN HRS. AM SPECULATIVE AS TO HOW FAR E THESE STORMS WILL
PROGRESS WITH THE FEELING THAT THE RGN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE. AS
SUCH...THINK STORMS WILL BE SURFACE-BASED INTO THE CT RVR VLY BUT
BECOME ELEVATED THEREAFTER /UNLESS CLEARING CAN PROCEED FURTHER E/.

ITS PLAUSIBLE SOME OF THESE STORMS CAN BE SEVERE /MORESO OVER W-NW
MA AND PSBLY S NH/ WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR OUT OF THE W/SW AROUND 45 KTS /THERE IS ALSO SOME NOTABLE
TURNING WITHIN THE HODOGRAPH PROFILE PER 12Z/15 NAM OVER WRN NEW
ENGLAND...SEE KBDL AND KBAF/. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT DOES PRESENT AN
OUTCOME OF CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS /MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE/ ALONG THE
COLD FRNT WITH A PSBL THREAT OF STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR
VECTORS ARE ORIENTED IN SUCH A MANNER WITH A SLIGHT PERPENDICULAR
COMPONENT...YET MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRNT. LIFT THRU THE
BETTER ICE GROWTH RGNS /ALBEIT THE CAPE WILL BE THIN AND ELONGATED
THRU THE ATMOS COLUMN/ DOES PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL
HAIL AS WELL /UNCERTAIN ABOUT SEVERE UP TO 1 INCH/. YET THE
CHARACTER OF THE CAPE THRU THE ATMOS PROFILE DOES NOT SUPPORT STRONG
UPDRAFTS WITH LITTLE ENTRAINMENT OF THE OUTSIDE ENVIRONMENT.



WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LIMITED CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT AS
THE COLD FRNT SLIDES THRU THE RGN. ANTICIPATE THE COLD FRNT TO BE
THRU THE RGN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WELL OFFSHORE BY MORNING. USHERANCE
OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR /AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE TO THE REAR OF THE
COLD FRNT/ UNDER W/NWLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MON
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE

DETAILS...

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH OF EXTENDED
FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ONCE SYSTEM HEADS OFFSHORE
THU AND CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT/SUN. STILL LOOKING AT
POSSIBILITY OF FROST ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING AS PATTERN FAVORS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS GFS TRIES TO GENERATE
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR...MAINLY AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH. THIS APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

EARLY NEXT WEEK CONFIDENCE DECREASES A BIT AS SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGE HEAD OFFSHORE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM GREAT LAKES
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP E COAST SHOULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TUE...IN LINE WITH 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION. HOWEVER 12Z GFS HANGS ON TO RIDGING LONGER AND DELAYS
EFFECTS OF THIS FRONT AND SUBTROPICAL LOW TO OUR S UNTIL MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...
2330Z UPDATE: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS STEADILY
LOWER THROUGH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH TIMING OF MVFR/IFR ONSET IN
TAFS MAY BE TOO FAST. CONFIDENT IN WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

LOW CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE E OF CT RIVER VALLEY WED...BUT
SHOULD LIFT BY MIDDAY ALONG AND W WITH POSSIBLE TSTMS 19Z WED
TO 00Z THU OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING BUT TIMING
OF 02Z IS BEST ESTIMATE. MORE CONFIDENT ON LOW CIGS HANGING ON
UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. TSTMS NOT EXPECTED WED.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
CONFIDENT ON TRENDS OF LOWERING TO LIFR EARLY TONIGHT AND ON
IMPROVEMENT EARLY WED AFTERNOON. TSTMS POSSIBLE 22Z WED-00Z THU.

OUTLOOK...

THU THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONTINUED BLUSTERY S/SE FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WILL LEND TO BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-8 FEET. SMALL
CRAFT ADV CONTINUES WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS ARE 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN AND FOG
TO IMPACT THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT...THE WORST OF WHICH WILL BE
AROUND THE MORNING HRS WITH PSBL VSBYS DOWN TO 1-3 MILES WITH
CONTINUED SLY FLOW. ALL OF THE ENERGY SHOULD BE WELL E OF THE WATERS
AS A COLD FRNT SLIDES THRU THE RGN AROUND MIDNIGHT THURS. SLY WINDS
WILL BACK OUT OF THE W/NW ACCORDINGLY. WAVES TO SUBSIDE IN LATER
PERIODS WITH INVOCATION OF HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THU INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION THU AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST
OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SUN. DIMINISHING WINDS/SEAS ANTICIPATED
THU WITH LIGHT WINDS/FLAT SEAS AND SEA BREEZES OVER WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
EQUIPMENT...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 152359
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
758 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE RAIN ENDING. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WAS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE DACKS.  MEANWHILE...DUAL POL RADAR WAS
SUGGESTING A REGION OF RAIN/DRIZZLE ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION.  LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY
OF THE DAY DID REVEAL SOME IMPROVEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF HERKIMER
COUNTY WITH BINOVCS.  SO THIS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS ALIGNED
WELL WITH THE SHOWERS.  LATEST RAP/HRRR SUGGEST THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING.  WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND THIS BOUNDARY NOT MOVING TOO MUCH...EXPECTATION IS TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE CLOUDY-MOCLDY SKIES.  FURTHERMORE...STRATUS
SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG WITH THE INCREASE POTENTIAL OF FOG FORMATION
PER THE UPS CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE.

AS OF 415 PM...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH
OF THE REGION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND EAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE HAS QUICKLY MOVED ACROSS CNTRL-ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE HAS QUICKLY MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN THE
SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AND CNTRL NY. ANY
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN HARD PRESSED TO DEVELOP...SO THE
ISOLATED THUNDER HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST.

A SFC TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST...LONG
ISLAND...AND NJ TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF AN ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN EXTREME OF THE CWA...AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL MATERIALIZE IN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-
WAVE OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SRN ONTARIO SEEN ON THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. THIS POTENT SHORT-WAVE AND THE ATTENDANT
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE THE KEEP FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW. MORE DISCUSSION ON
THAT IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL MILD WITH THE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WITH
GENERALLY 50S...AND A FEW MID TO U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...EXTENSIVE COORDINATION WAS DONE WITH SPC...AND THE
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES FOR THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR TOMORROW. THERE WAS A CONSENSUS FOR AN UPGRADE TO A
SLIGHT RISK FOR MOST OF THE ALY FCST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS POTENTIALLY THE MAIN THREATS.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY PM. CLEARING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND
ITS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD
BURN OFF IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING QUICKLY. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS FALLS WILL BE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-
WAVE IN THE EARLY PM WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSES IN THE
H850-500/H700-H500 LAYER TO 6.5/7+C/KM. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW
TWO INSTABILITY AXES ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 18Z. ONE ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES...AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT. SFC DEWPTS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO POSSIBLY L60S. SBCAPES ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY
GREATER. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS...AND
THE FLOW BECOMES UNI-DIRECTIONAL BY THE MID TO LATE PM. ALSO...A
FAIRLY SHARP LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT INCREASES TO 15-20K BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE DCAPE VALUES ON THE GFS/NAM AHEAD OF THE STRONG
COLD FRONT RANGE FROM 1000-1500+ J/KG ! THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS
AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE BTWN 18-22Z.  THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN
H500 JET STREAK /60-70 KTS/ WILL ALSO BE POKING INTO THE FCST AREA
TO HELP ENHANCE THE SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR THE CONVECTION.

THE THREAT IS THERE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS
MULTICELLS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A LINE OR TWO WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS BY THE MID TO LATE PM. THE NCEP 4-KM WRF-NMM BASE REF
PRODUCT DONE FOR SPC SHOWS A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE
SWEEPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA BTWN 18Z-00Z. WE HAVE MENTIONED IN
THE TEXT PRODUCTS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT SOME MAY BE
SEVERE. IN THE HWO WE WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL THREATS.
ALSO...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO. SPC
HAS THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK AND SRN DACKS OUT OF THE SLIGHT RISK. WE
BELIEVE THE THREAT IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

FINALLY...A QUICK CHECK OF THE LOCAL MAGLENTA EQUATION INDICATES A
MAJOR SEVERE EVENT IS POSSIBLE. THE CONDITIONAL EQUATION USED THE
FOLLOWING CONSERVATIVE VALUES FROM ALBANY FROM THE NAM:

SBCAPE=1000 J/KG
MAX SOUNDING WIND=85 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=30 KTS
SRH (0-3 KM)=100 (M/S)2

THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BE THE FIRST SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SINCE
EARLY LAST FALL /LATE SEPT/.

THE POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL END BETWEEN 6-9 PM.
MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO NEAR 80F IN THE VALLEYS
WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO 0 TO +5C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR DUE TO THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE U30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

THURSDAY...A BEAUTIFUL MID MAY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A FEW-SCT
FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND. DESPITE H850 TEMPS OF +2 TO
+5C...DECENT MIXING TO H850-800 SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 60-65F OVER THE MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER NY AND PA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY OCCUR. SOME FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS
REGION. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO M30S WILL BE COMMON THERE. LOWER TO
M40S ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION..EXCEPT THE SRN
GREENS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE SOME U30S
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WE TRANSITION FROM
THE COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY TO BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE PRESSURES FOR THE WEEKEND.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLE TO ABOVE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

MEANWHILE...WE WILL BE MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATER INTO THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  HERE...THE MODEL SUITE DIVERGES WITH
PLACEMENT...MOISTURE CONTENT...AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE LATEST ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH TRACKING THIS SYSTEM
NORTHWARD WITH AN INCREASE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS LATER MONDAY.  THE
GFS HANGS ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS.
THE GGEM IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...WITH A FURTHER
INLAND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.  PER HPC COLLABORATION AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...WE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND MAYBE VIS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR THE 4 TAF
SITES.  ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF WHEN THESE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL BE
MET.  PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BUFR PROFILES...WE WILL PLACE
THESE LOWER RESTRICTIONS TOWARD 03Z.  THEN A TEMPO GROUP FOR
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS LOW STRATUS DECK WILL
SLOWLY LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.
AFTER 14Z-15Z WEDNESDAY...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR.

THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
AN INCREASED THREAT FOR CONVECTION.  AT THIS TIME...TOO LOW
CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE TAF.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 5 KT TONIGHT...THEN BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...
WED NT-SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE RAIN ENDING. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT BUT RH VALUES WILL
APPROACH 100 PERCENT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND. RH VALUES WILL
LOWER BRIEFLY TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT THURSDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL VEER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO
15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN INCH TO INCH OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED SO FAR
TODAY WITH A LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE CATSKILLS. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE PAST 24-48 HRS
HAVE BEEN COMMON OVER MOST OF THE HSA. SOME WITHIN BANK RISES /1 TO 3
FOOT RISES/ HAVE OCCURRED ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS. NO FLOODING
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC HYDROGRAPH
FORECASTS. A FEW POINTS HAVE REACHED THE ALERT OR CAUTION STAGE
...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...WASULA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBOX 152320
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER FROM
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING. 18Z MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE AND FOCUS MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY TOWARD S COAST OVERNIGHT...WHILE MUCH OF INTERIOR ONLY
SEES A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ONCE THIS AREA HEADS OFFSHORE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT S/SE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...WHICH MAY BECOME DENSE ACROSS RI AND SE MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

OVRNGT WET WX SHOULD SLIDE GRADUALLY OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING PD
WITH THE ATTENDANT FRNTL BOUNDARY PRESSING EWD AND STALLING AGAINST
THE STRONGER ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES. BUT AS THE DISTURBED WX
SLIDES E...SWLY FLOW INCREASES FROM THE W PROMOTING WAA THRU THE
LOW-MID LVLS ACROSS THE RGN. FEEL LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL HANG
ACROSS THE RGN RESULTING IN LIMITED MIXING DUE TO AN INVERSION
ALOFT. WHILE THE WRN ZONES MAY CLEAR...LOW STRATUS WILL LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
NRN STREAM SHRTWV AND ATTENDANT COLD FRNT.

ACROSS PA/NY WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED...A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
STEEP LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN STREAM
COLD FRNT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
RVR VLY /NRN NEW ENGLAND/. ACCORDINGLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COLD FRNT INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
BY THE AFTN HRS. AM SPECULATIVE AS TO HOW FAR E THESE STORMS WILL
PROGRESS WITH THE FEELING THAT THE RGN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE. AS
SUCH...THINK STORMS WILL BE SURFACE-BASED INTO THE CT RVR VLY BUT
BECOME ELEVATED THEREAFTER /UNLESS CLEARING CAN PROCEED FURTHER E/.

ITS PLAUSIBLE SOME OF THESE STORMS CAN BE SEVERE /MORESO OVER W-NW
MA AND PSBLY S NH/ WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR OUT OF THE W/SW AROUND 45 KTS /THERE IS ALSO SOME NOTABLE
TURNING WITHIN THE HODOGRAPH PROFILE PER 12Z/15 NAM OVER WRN NEW
ENGLAND...SEE KBDL AND KBAF/. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT DOES PRESENT AN
OUTCOME OF CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS /MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE/ ALONG THE
COLD FRNT WITH A PSBL THREAT OF STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR
VECTORS ARE ORIENTED IN SUCH A MANNER WITH A SLIGHT PERPENDICULAR
COMPONENT...YET MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRNT. LIFT THRU THE
BETTER ICE GROWTH RGNS /ALBEIT THE CAPE WILL BE THIN AND ELONGATED
THRU THE ATMOS COLUMN/ DOES PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL
HAIL AS WELL /UNCERTAIN ABOUT SEVERE UP TO 1 INCH/. YET THE
CHARACTER OF THE CAPE THRU THE ATMOS PROFILE DOES NOT SUPPORT STRONG
UPDRAFTS WITH LITTLE ENTRAINMENT OF THE OUTSIDE ENVIRONMENT.



WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LIMITED CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT AS
THE COLD FRNT SLIDES THRU THE RGN. ANTICIPATE THE COLD FRNT TO BE
THRU THE RGN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WELL OFFSHORE BY MORNING. USHERANCE
OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR /AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE TO THE REAR OF THE
COLD FRNT/ UNDER W/NWLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MON
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE

DETAILS...

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH OF EXTENDED
FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ONCE SYSTEM HEADS OFFSHORE
THU AND CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT/SUN. STILL LOOKING AT
POSSIBILITY OF FROST ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING AS PATTERN FAVORS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS GFS TRIES TO GENERATE
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR...MAINLY AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH. THIS APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

EARLY NEXT WEEK CONFIDENCE DECREASES A BIT AS SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGE HEAD OFFSHORE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM GREAT LAKES
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP E COAST SHOULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TUE...IN LINE WITH 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION. HOWEVER 12Z GFS HANGS ON TO RIDGING LONGER AND DELAYS
EFFECTS OF THIS FRONT AND SUBTROPICAL LOW TO OUR S UNTIL MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...
2330Z UPDATE: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS STEADILY
LOWER THROUGH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH TIMING OF MVFR/IFR ONSET IN
TAFS MAY BE TOO FAST. CONFIDENT IN WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

LOW CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE E OF CT RIVER VALLEY WED...BUT
SHOULD LIFT BY MIDDAY ALONG AND W WITH POSSIBLE TSTMS 19Z WED
TO 00Z THU OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING BUT TIMING
OF 02Z IS BEST ESTIMATE. MORE CONFIDENT ON LOW CIGS HANGING ON
UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. TSTMS NOT EXPECTED WED.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
CONFIDENT ON TRENDS OF LOWERING TO LIFR EARLY TONIGHT AND ON
IMPROVEMENT EARLY WED AFTERNOON. TSTMS POSSIBLE 22Z WED-00Z THU.

OUTLOOK...

THU THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONTINUED BLUSTERY S/SE FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WILL LEND TO BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-8 FEET. SMALL
CRAFT ADV CONTINUES WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS ARE 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN AND FOG
TO IMPACT THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT...THE WORST OF WHICH WILL BE
AROUND THE MORNING HRS WITH PSBL VSBYS DOWN TO 1-3 MILES WITH
CONTINUED SLY FLOW. ALL OF THE ENERGY SHOULD BE WELL E OF THE WATERS
AS A COLD FRNT SLIDES THRU THE RGN AROUND MIDNIGHT THURS. SLY WINDS
WILL BACK OUT OF THE W/NW ACCORDINGLY. WAVES TO SUBSIDE IN LATER
PERIODS WITH INVOCATION OF HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THU INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION THU AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST
OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SUN. DIMINISHING WINDS/SEAS ANTICIPATED
THU WITH LIGHT WINDS/FLAT SEAS AND SEA BREEZES OVER WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
EQUIPMENT...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KBOX 152120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
520 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER FROM
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ANTICIPATE THE MAIN SLUG OF WET WX TO TRANSLATE NEWD THRU THE RGN
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-MID LVL JET AXIS. CONVERGENCE OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE YIELDING HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
RAINFALL AMNTS AROUND HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH. IT APPEARS MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ATTENDANT LLJ IS ACROSS SERN NEW ENGLAND /PSBLY
OFFSHORE/ BY MORNING KICKED OUT BY THE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCES
DIVING SEWD THRU THE GRT LKS RGN. AFTER THIS SLUG OF RAIN...THE
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCTD IN NATURE. LESS CONFIDENCE ON ANY
FLOOD HEADLINES...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR PSBL URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

AS FOR INSTABILITY...ELONGATED AND VERY THIN INSTABILITY ABOVE THE
SFC INVERSION IS LIKELY...ALBEIT WEAK WITH VALUES AROUND 200 J/KG.
FEEL THIS INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE LIFT TOWARDS HEAVY RAINS...BUT
WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT THRU THE LOW-MID LVLS /BELOW -10C/ WILL
FOREGO ANY MENTION OF THUNDER. MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN. MIN TEMPS
AROUND THE MID 50S. LIKELY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE INTERMITTENT LOW
VSBYS...BUT MAY ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

OVRNGT WET WX SHOULD SLIDE GRADUALLY OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING PD
WITH THE ATTENDANT FRNTL BOUNDARY PRESSING EWD AND STALLING AGAINST
THE STRONGER ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES. BUT AS THE DISTURBED WX
SLIDES E...SWLY FLOW INCREASES FROM THE W PROMOTING WAA THRU THE
LOW-MID LVLS ACROSS THE RGN. FEEL LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL HANG
ACROSS THE RGN RESULTING IN LIMITED MIXING DUE TO AN INVERSION
ALOFT. WHILE THE WRN ZONES MAY CLEAR...LOW STRATUS WILL LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
NRN STREAM SHRTWV AND ATTENDANT COLD FRNT.

ACROSS PA/NY WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED...A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
STEEP LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN STREAM
COLD FRNT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
RVR VLY /NRN NEW ENGLAND/. ACCORDINGLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COLD FRNT INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
BY THE AFTN HRS. AM SPECULATIVE AS TO HOW FAR E THESE STORMS WILL
PROGRESS WITH THE FEELING THAT THE RGN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE. AS
SUCH...THINK STORMS WILL BE SURFACE-BASED INTO THE CT RVR VLY BUT
BECOME ELEVATED THEREAFTER /UNLESS CLEARING CAN PROCEED FURTHER E/.

ITS PLAUSIBLE SOME OF THESE STORMS CAN BE SEVERE /MORESO OVER W-NW
MA AND PSBLY S NH/ WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR OUT OF THE W/SW AROUND 45 KTS /THERE IS ALSO SOME NOTABLE
TURNING WITHIN THE HODOGRAPH PROFILE PER 12Z/15 NAM OVER WRN NEW
ENGLAND...SEE KBDL AND KBAF/. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT DOES PRESENT AN
OUTCOME OF CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS /MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE/ ALONG THE
COLD FRNT WITH A PSBL THREAT OF STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR
VECTORS ARE ORIENTED IN SUCH A MANNER WITH A SLIGHT PERPENDICULAR
COMPONENT...YET MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRNT. LIFT THRU THE
BETTER ICE GROWTH RGNS /ALBEIT THE CAPE WILL BE THIN AND ELONGATED
THRU THE ATMOS COLUMN/ DOES PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL
HAIL AS WELL /UNCERTAIN ABOUT SEVERE UP TO 1 INCH/. YET THE
CHARACTER OF THE CAPE THRU THE ATMOS PROFILE DOES NOT SUPPORT STRONG
UPDRAFTS WITH LITTLE ENTRAINMENT OF THE OUTSIDE ENVIRONMENT.



WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LIMITED CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT AS
THE COLD FRNT SLIDES THRU THE RGN. ANTICIPATE THE COLD FRNT TO BE
THRU THE RGN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WELL OFFSHORE BY MORNING. USHERANCE
OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR /AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE TO THE REAR OF THE
COLD FRNT/ UNDER W/NWLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MON
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE

DETAILS...

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH OF EXTENDED
FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ONCE SYSTEM HEADS OFFSHORE
THU AND CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT/SUN. STILL LOOKING AT
POSSIBILITY OF FROST ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING AS PATTERN FAVORS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS GFS TRIES TO GENERATE
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR...MAINLY AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH. THIS APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

EARLY NEXT WEEK CONFIDENCE DECREASES A BIT AS SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGE HEAD OFFSHORE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM GREAT LAKES
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP E COAST SHOULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TUE...IN LINE WITH 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION. HOWEVER 12Z GFS HANGS ON TO RIDGING LONGER AND DELAYS
EFFECTS OF THIS FRONT AND SUBTROPICAL LOW TO OUR S UNTIL MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...
21Z UPDATE: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS STEADILY
LOWER THROUGH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH TIMING OF MVFR/IFR ONSET IN
TAFS MAY BE TOO FAST. MORE CONFIDENT IN WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. LOW CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE E OF CT
RIVER VALLEY WED BUT SHOULD LIFT BY MIDDAY ALONG AND W...WITH
POSSIBLE TSTMS 19Z WED-00Z THU. STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING BUT TIMING
OF 01Z IN TAF LOOKS BEST. ANY TSTMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL W OF
KBOS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
CONFIDENT ON TRENDS OF LOWERING TO LIFR EARLY TONIGHT AND ON
IMPROVEMENT EARLY WED AFTERNOON. TSTMS POSSIBLE 22Z WED-00Z THU.

OUTLOOK...

THU THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONTINUED BLUSTERY S/SE FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WILL LEND TO BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-8 FEET. SMALL
CRAFT ADV CONTINUES WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS ARE 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN AND FOG
TO IMPACT THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT...THE WORST OF WHICH WILL BE
AROUND THE MORNING HRS WITH PSBL VSBYS DOWN TO 1-3 MILES WITH
CONTINUED SLY FLOW. ALL OF THE ENERGY SHOULD BE WELL E OF THE WATERS
AS A COLD FRNT SLIDES THRU THE RGN AROUND MIDNIGHT THURS. SLY WINDS
WILL BACK OUT OF THE W/NW ACCORDINGLY. WAVES TO SUBSIDE IN LATER
PERIODS WITH INVOCATION OF HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THU INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION THU AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST
OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SUN. DIMINISHING WINDS/SEAS ANTICIPATED
THU WITH LIGHT WINDS/FLAT SEAS AND SEA BREEZES OVER WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
EQUIPMENT...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 152022
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
422 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE RAIN ENDING. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH
OF THE REGION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND EAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE HAS QUICKLY MOVED ACROSS CNTRL-ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE HAS QUICKLY MOVED
ACROSS THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN THE
SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AND CNTRL NY. ANY
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN HARD PRESSED TO DEVELOP...SO THE
ISOLATED THUNDER HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST.

A SFC TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST...LONG
ISLAND...AND NJ TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF AN ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN EXTREME OF THE CWA...AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL MATERIALIZE IN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-
WAVE OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SRN ONTARIO SEEN ON THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. THIS POTENT SHORT-WAVE AND THE ATTENDANT
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE THE KEEP FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW. MORE DISCUSSION ON
THAT IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL MILD WITH THE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WITH
GENERALLY 50S...AND A FEW MID TO U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...EXTENSIVE COORDINATION WAS DONE WITH SPC...AND THE
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES FOR THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR TOMORROW. THERE WAS A CONSENSUS FOR AN UPGRADE TO A
SLIGHT RISK FOR MOST OF THE ALY FCST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS POTENTIALLY THE MAIN THREATS.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY...AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY PM. CLEARING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND
ITS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD
BURN OFF IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING QUICKLY. LOW AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS FALLS WILL BE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-
WAVE IN THE EARLY PM WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSES IN THE
H850-500/H700-H500 LAYER TO 6.5/7+C/KM. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW
TWO INSTABILITY AXES ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 18Z. ONE ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES...AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT. SFC DEWPTS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO POSSIBLY L60S. SBCAPES ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY
GREATER. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-50 KTS...AND
THE FLOW BECOMES UNI-DIRECTIONAL BY THE MID TO LATE PM. ALSO...A
FAIRLY SHARP LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT INCREASES TO 15-20K BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE DCAPE VALUES ON THE GFS/NAM AHEAD OF THE STRONG
COLD FRONT RANGE FROM 1000-1500+ J/KG ! THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS
AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE BTWN 18-22Z.  THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN
H500 JET STREAK /60-70 KTS/ WILL ALSO BE POKING INTO THE FCST AREA
TO HELP ENHANCE THE SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR THE CONVECTION.

THE THREAT IS THERE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS
MULTICELLS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A LINE OR TWO WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS BY THE MID TO LATE PM. THE NCEP 4-KM WRF-NMM BASE REF
PRODUCT DONE FOR SPC SHOWS A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE
SWEEPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA BTWN 18Z-00Z. WE HAVE MENTIONED IN
THE TEXT PRODUCTS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT SOME MAY BE
SEVERE. IN THE HWO WE WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL THREATS.
ALSO...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO. SPC
HAS THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK AND SRN DACKS OUT OF THE SLIGHT RISK. WE
BELIEVE THE THREAT IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

FINALLY...A QUICK CHECK OF THE LOCAL MAGLENTA EQUATION INDICATES A
MAJOR SEVERE EVENT IS POSSIBLE. THE CONDITIONAL EQUATION USED THE
FOLLOWING CONSERVATIVE VALUES FROM ALBANY FROM THE NAM:

SBCAPE=1000 J/KG
MAX SOUNDING WIND=85 KTS
EHI=0.5
STORM SPEED=30 KTS
SRH (0-3 KM)=100 (M/S)2

THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BE THE FIRST SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SINCE
EARLY LAST FALL /LATE SEPT/.

THE POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL END BETWEEN 6-9 PM.
MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M70S TO NEAR 80F IN THE VALLEYS
WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO 0 TO +5C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR DUE TO THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE U30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

THURSDAY...A BEAUTIFUL MID MAY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A FEW-SCT
FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND. DESPITE H850 TEMPS OF +2 TO
+5C...DECENT MIXING TO H850-800 SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 60-65F OVER THE MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER NY AND PA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY OCCUR. SOME FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS
REGION. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO M30S WILL BE COMMON THERE. LOWER TO
M40S ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION..EXCEPT THE SRN
GREENS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE SOME U30S
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WE TRANSITION FROM
THE COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY TO BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
SURFACE PRESSURES FOR THE WEEKEND.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS RATHER HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLE TO ABOVE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

MEANWHILE...WE WILL BE MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATER INTO THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  HERE...THE MODEL SUITE DIVERGES WITH
PLACEMENT...MOISTURE CONTENT...AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE LATEST ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH TRACKING THIS SYSTEM
NORTHWARD WITH AN INCREASE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS LATER MONDAY.  THE
GFS HANGS ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS.
THE GGEM IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...WITH A FURTHER
INLAND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.  PER HPC COLLABORATION AND NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...WE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS HOVERING BETWEEN IFR AND LOW MVFR AT ALL SITES. TIMING
THE END OF THE RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUGGESTS LATE
AFTERNOON AT KPOU AND KALB...TOWARD EARLY EVENING AT KGFL AND
DURING THE EVENING AT KPSF. A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING
COULD OCCUR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM AT ALL SITES...WITH THE
LOWEST CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL 14Z-
15Z. LIGHT WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING COULD DELAY IMPROVEMENTS TO
VFR. SO...AFTER 14Z-15Z TOMORROW...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT SHOULD BECOME LESS
THAN 5 KT TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10
KT TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...
WED NGT-SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE RAIN ENDING. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT BUT RH VALUES WILL
APPROACH 100 PERCENT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND. RH VALUES WILL
LOWER BRIEFLY TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT THURSDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL VEER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO
15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN INCH TO INCH OF RAIN HAS OCCURRED SO FAR
TODAY WITH A LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE CATSKILLS. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE PAST 24-48 HRS
HAVE BEEN COMMON OVER MOST OF THE HSA. SOME WITHIN BANK RISES /1 TO 3
FOOT RISES/ HAVE OCCURRED ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS. NO FLOODING
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE LATEST NERFC HYDROGRAPH
FORECASTS. A FEW POINTS HAVE REACHED THE ALERT OR CAUTION STAGE
...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 151912
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
312 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER FROM
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ANTICIPATE THE MAIN SLUG OF WET WX TO TRANSLATE NEWD THRU THE RGN
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-MID LVL JET AXIS. CONVERGENCE OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE YIELDING HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
RAINFALL AMNTS AROUND HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH. IT APPEARS MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ATTENDANT LLJ IS ACROSS SERN NEW ENGLAND /PSBLY
OFFSHORE/ BY MORNING KICKED OUT BY THE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCES
DIVING SEWD THRU THE GRT LKS RGN. AFTER THIS SLUG OF RAIN...THE
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCTD IN NATURE. LESS CONFIDENCE ON ANY
FLOOD HEADLINES...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR PSBL URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.

AS FOR INSTABILITY...ELONGATED AND VERY THIN INSTABILITY ABOVE THE
SFC INVERSION IS LIKELY...ALBEIT WEAK WITH VALUES AROUND 200 J/KG.
FEEL THIS INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE LIFT TOWARDS HEAVY RAINS...BUT
WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT THRU THE LOW-MID LVLS /BELOW -10C/ WILL
FOREGO ANY MENTION OF THUNDER. MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN. MIN TEMPS
AROUND THE MID 50S. LIKELY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE INTERMITTENT LOW
VSBYS...BUT MAY ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

OVRNGT WET WX SHOULD SLIDE GRADUALLY OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING PD
WITH THE ATTENDANT FRNTL BOUNDARY PRESSING EWD AND STALLING AGAINST
THE STRONGER ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES. BUT AS THE DISTURBED WX
SLIDES E...SWLY FLOW INCREASES FROM THE W PROMOTING WAA THRU THE
LOW-MID LVLS ACROSS THE RGN. FEEL LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL HANG
ACROSS THE RGN RESULTING IN LIMITED MIXING DUE TO AN INVERSION
ALOFT. WHILE THE WRN ZONES MAY CLEAR...LOW STRATUS WILL LIMIT THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
NRN STREAM SHRTWV AND ATTENDANT COLD FRNT.

ACROSS PA/NY WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED...A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
STEEP LOW-MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN STREAM
COLD FRNT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
RVR VLY /NRN NEW ENGLAND/. ACCORDINGLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COLD FRNT INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
BY THE AFTN HRS. AM SPECULATIVE AS TO HOW FAR E THESE STORMS WILL
PROGRESS WITH THE FEELING THAT THE RGN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE. AS
SUCH...THINK STORMS WILL BE SURFACE-BASED INTO THE CT RVR VLY BUT
BECOME ELEVATED THEREAFTER /UNLESS CLEARING CAN PROCEED FURTHER E/.

ITS PLAUSIBLE SOME OF THESE STORMS CAN BE SEVERE /MORESO OVER W-NW
MA AND PSBLY S NH/ WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR OUT OF THE W/SW AROUND 45 KTS /THERE IS ALSO SOME NOTABLE
TURNING WITHIN THE HODOGRAPH PROFILE PER 12Z/15 NAM OVER WRN NEW
ENGLAND...SEE KBDL AND KBAF/. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT DOES PRESENT AN
OUTCOME OF CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS /MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE/ ALONG THE
COLD FRNT WITH A PSBL THREAT OF STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR
VECTORS ARE ORIENTED IN SUCH A MANNER WITH A SLIGHT PERPENDICULAR
COMPONENT...YET MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRNT. LIFT THRU THE
BETTER ICE GROWTH RGNS /ALBEIT THE CAPE WILL BE THIN AND ELONGATED
THRU THE ATMOS COLUMN/ DOES PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL
HAIL AS WELL /UNCERTAIN ABOUT SEVERE UP TO 1 INCH/. YET THE
CHARACTER OF THE CAPE THRU THE ATMOS PROFILE DOES NOT SUPPORT STRONG
UPDRAFTS WITH LITTLE ENTRAINMENT OF THE OUTSIDE ENVIRONMENT.



WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LIMITED CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT AS
THE COLD FRNT SLIDES THRU THE RGN. ANTICIPATE THE COLD FRNT TO BE
THRU THE RGN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WELL OFFSHORE BY MORNING. USHERANCE
OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR /AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE TO THE REAR OF THE
COLD FRNT/ UNDER W/NWLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MON
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE

DETAILS...

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR MUCH OF EXTENDED
FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ONCE SYSTEM HEADS OFFSHORE
THU AND CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT/SUN. STILL LOOKING AT
POSSIBILITY OF FROST ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING AS PATTERN FAVORS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS GFS TRIES TO GENERATE
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR...MAINLY AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH. THIS APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

EARLY NEXT WEEK CONFIDENCE DECREASES A BIT AS SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGE HEAD OFFSHORE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM GREAT LAKES
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP E COAST SHOULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS TUE...IN LINE WITH 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION. HOWEVER 12Z GFS HANGS ON TO RIDGING LONGER AND DELAYS
EFFECTS OF THIS FRONT AND SUBTROPICAL LOW TO OUR S UNTIL MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHRA PROGRESSING NEWD...IMPACTING
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. DOWNSTREAM...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS...PREVAILED MVFR AS IFR IS INTERMITTENT AND ISOLATED.
SHRA WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS EVNG...THEN TOWARDS THE S/E BY
MORNING GRADUALLY USHERING OFFSHORE. LOW CONDITIONS WITH IFR CIGS.
UNCERTAINTY WITH VSBYS YET LIKELY REDUCED WITH HEAVIER SHRA. NO
TSRA EXPECTED. SLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 KTS. FOR WED...TERMINALS E
OF THE CT RVR VLY WILL BE SLOW IN CLEARING LOW STRATUS AROUND 1-2
KFT. TO THE W...TSRA IS VERY PSBL AFTER 16/18Z. STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE. COLD FRNT THRU TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT THURS.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
TIMING OF SHRA PRETTY MUCH NAILED DOWN. UNCERTAINTY AS TO TONIGHT
AND HOW LOW CONDITIONS WILL GO BUT CAN/T RULE OUT IFR CIGS.
ANTICIPATE LOW STRATUS TO HANG THRU MORNING AND GRADUALLY LIFT
THRU THE DAY. ALL DISTURBED WX IS OUT WITH THE COLD FRNT AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURS.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
SHRA IMPACTING THE TERMINAL AND EXPECT MVFR FAULTERING TO IFR
OVRNGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVING INTO MORNING AND CLEARING. THERE IS A
GOOD POSSIBILITY OF TSRA WED AFTN SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. ALL
ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE RGN AFTER DUSK WITH A COLD FRNT THRU
THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...

THU THROUGH SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONTINUED BLUSTERY S/SE FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WILL LEND TO BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-8 FEET. SMALL
CRAFT ADV CONTINUES WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS ARE 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN AND FOG
TO IMPACT THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT...THE WORST OF WHICH WILL BE
AROUND THE MORNING HRS WITH PSBL VSBYS DOWN TO 1-3 MILES WITH
CONTINUED SLY FLOW. ALL OF THE ENERGY SHOULD BE WELL E OF THE WATERS
AS A COLD FRNT SLIDES THRU THE RGN AROUND MIDNIGHT THURS. SLY WINDS
WILL BACK OUT OF THE W/NW ACCORDINGLY. WAVES TO SUBSIDE IN LATER
PERIODS WITH INVOCATION OF HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THU INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION THU AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST
OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT AND SUN. DIMINISHING WINDS/SEAS ANTICIPATED
THU WITH LIGHT WINDS/FLAT SEAS AND SEA BREEZES OVER WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
EQUIPMENT...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KBOX 151800
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER FROM
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

WATCHING THE SLUG OF RAIN PROGRESS NEWD WITH THE MEAN FLOW. HAVE
MADE NUMEROUS AMENDMENTS ACCORDINGLY TO THE FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR
ITS PROGRESSION. WE SHOULD SEE THE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST
RGN INTO 20Z /4 PM/ WHICH WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR A MESSY RUSH HOUR
COMMUTE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER
RAINS WITHIN THE BROADER AREA TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE PROBLEMATIC. NO THUNDER ANTICIPATED.

CAN STILL SEE THE IMPACT OF DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN
FCST AREAS. THE RAIN FOR THE E SHORE AND ACROSS THE CAPE MAY BE
LATER THAN 4 PM.

TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
COMBINES WITH DEEP MOISTURE/LIFT.  THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH...SO BRIEF LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY.  THIS MAY LEAD
TO BRIEF NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.  THERE ALSO IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NOTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST SO HAVE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
* DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
15/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IN DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WX
DETAILS ARE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE ARE
STILL A FEW ISSUES TO WORK OUT REGARDING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION
WED...BUT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT /A FEATURE MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON/ WOULD SUGGEST BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD
BE GENERALLY W OF THE AREA INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF MA/CT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BEYOND THU...THE KEY IS THAT MODELS ARE GENERALLY
HANDLING THE TRANSITION TO STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ERN
STATES BEGINNING THU AS NRN QC CUTOFF LOW SHIFTS OVER THE NRN
MARITIMES. GIVEN THAT NO ONE MODEL IS FAVORED IN THIS CASE...WILL
LEAN TOWARD DRY FORECAST FEATURED BY BOTH GFS/ECMWF FOR THU
ONWARD.

DETAILS...

WED INTO WED NIGHT...
INITIAL WARM FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE S AND E COASTS
DURING THE MORNING. THERE IS ENOUGH LLVL FRONTOGENESIS WITH AN
INCREASING LLJ TO 45 KT WITH THIS FEATURE...SO SUSPECT THAT SRN
AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL BE EXPERIENCING SOME MORNING SHRA
ACTIVITY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
/AROUND 100-200J/KG CAPE/ ABOVE THE SFC WARM FRONTAL INVERSION SO
AN ISOLD RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE SFC INVERSION...IT APPEARS THAT MIXING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY TAPPING THE 45 KT SLY LLJ. SO...IT APPEARS WIND
CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL.

DURING THE DAY WED INTO WED NIGHT...AS WARM FRONT MOVES
E...SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEGINNING TO BUILD IN
ALOFT WITH H5 TEMPS DIPPING TO -15C OR LOWER. THE DRY AIR WILL
ALSO PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY FOR PEEKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND WRN AREAS. THIS SETS UP THE
POSSIBILITY FOR DESTABILIZATION OF THE COLUMN AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
WARM FRONT MOVING E FROM NY STATE. NEAR SFC LAYER REMAINS
RELATIVELY MOIST...SFC BASED CAPE VALUES +1000J/KG ARE APPARENT
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME WEAK DIFFLUENT VENTING
ALOFT...AND SOME LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY W OF AFN-ORH-IJD LINE. HOWEVER...BEST
CHANCE FOR LIFT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT ITSELF...TO THE W AND
OVER NY...AWAY FROM THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE MORNING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALSO...WITH LITTLE SHEAR /LLJ IS ONLY AROUND 25 KT AT
BEST/ CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED AND WILL REQUIRE THE
LIFT THAT THE FRONT ITSELF PROVIDES FOR ADDITIONAL SUPPORT.
THEREFORE...WILL GENERALLY KEEP BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE SLIM
CAPE PROFILE...IS FOR DOWNPOURS IN ANY TSTMS THAT DO REACH WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FA. DESPITE THE FRONT BEING PROGGED TO CROSS THE
REGION WED NIGHT...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS THE
ADVECTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE COLUMN ALOFT WILL LIKELY ALLOW MOST
OF THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THU INTO FRI...
UPPER LVL CUTOFF OVER NRN QC PROVINCE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E.
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL USHER IN HIGH PRES AND A COOL
AIRMASS THU INT FRI. THE HIGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY
DRY...BUT ONE ISSUE TO WATCH WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES THU NIGHT INTO FRI. H85 TEMPS IN NRN MA AND
SRN NH DIP TO AROUND 0C BY 12Z FRI...WITH A GOOD INVERSION
APPARENT ON SOUNDINGS THANKS TO WEAK NEAR SFC FLOW. NORMALLY COLD
VALLEYS WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY LOW TO
MODERATE THAT FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT IT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...THE COOL AIRMASS WOULD ONLY
SUPPORT TEMPS NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
PERSISTENT WARM SE FLOW WILL BE FEEDING RIDGING OVER THE SE
STATES DURING THE PERIOD. THIS RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD OVER
THE E AND NE CONUS...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING MID LVL TEMPS AND
GENERALLY PERSISTENTLY DRY COLUMNS. THEREFORE...WILL TREND FCST
TOWARD A MOSTLY DRY SOLN. ATTM...BEST CHANCES FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WITH WET WX WOULD BE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BUT WITH
THE FINAL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION
MARK...ANY SHORTWAVE EARLIER COULD BE AN ISSUE. GIVEN THAT THE
RIDGE IS WELL AGREED UPON...CONFIDENCE FOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR 6 TO 8 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHRA PROGRESSING NEWD...IMPACTING
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. DOWNSTREAM...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS...PREVAILED MVFR AS IFR IS INTERMITTENT AND ISOLATED.
SHRA WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS EVNG...THEN TOWARDS THE S/E BY
MORNING GRADUALLY USHERING OFFSHORE. LOW CONDITIONS WITH IFR CIGS.
UNCERTAINTY WITH VSBYS YET LIKELY REDUCED WITH HEAVIER SHRA. NO
TSRA EXPECTED. SLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 KTS. FOR WED...TERMINALS E
OF THE CT RVR VLY WILL BE SLOW IN CLEARING LOW STRATUS AROUND 1-2
KFT. TO THE W...TSRA IS VERY PSBL AFTER 16/18Z. STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE. COLD FRNT THRU TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT THURS.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
TIMING OF SHRA PRETTY MUCH NAILED DOWN. UNCERTAINTY AS TO TONIGHT
AND HOW LOW CONDITIONS WILL GO BUT CAN/T RULE OUT IFR CIGS.
ANTICIPATE LOW STRATUS TO HANG THRU MORNING AND GRADUALLY LIFT
THRU THE DAY. ALL DISTURBED WX IS OUT WITH THE COLD FRNT AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURS.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
SHRA IMPACTING THE TERMINAL AND EXPECT MVFR FAULTERING TO IFR
OVRNGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVING INTO MORNING AND CLEARING. THERE IS A
GOOD POSSIBILITY OF TSRA WED AFTN SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. ALL
ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE RGN AFTER DUSK WITH A COLD FRNT THRU
THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...

THU THROUGH SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
LONG FETCH SHOULD ALLOW SEAS OVER THE OPEN WATERS TO BUILD TO SCA
LEVELS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  INVERSION OVER THE WATERS SHOULD
KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT...BUT 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY HAVE HEADLINES JUST FOR THE OPEN WATERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE A FEW HOURS OF 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS
OCCUR NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT FUSED NEAR SHORE SCA.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED INTO WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN OUTER
WATERS AND SRN WATERS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

THU INTO SAT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS. AFTER 5 FT
SWELLS OVER THE OUTER WATERS DIMINISH THU...GENERALLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
EQUIPMENT...WFO BOX

000
FXUS61 KALY 151749
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING
ALONG IT THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL...TO MAINLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND INCREASINGLY
WARM WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM...ONGOING FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH SHORT-
WAVE IN SW FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. BATCH OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL QUICKLY MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THE BACK EDGE HAS ALREADY REACHED THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND CLOSE TO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME SCT
SHOWERS REFORMING OVER CNTRL NY. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER
IN THE FCST FOR THE PM. WE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE
COOL STRATIFORM AIR MASS. RAINFALL RATES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN
THE ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH HOUR RANGE. THE CURRENT NERFC
FORECASTS DO NOT BRING ANY POINTS TO FLOOD. ACTUALLY ONLY A FEW
REACH THE ALERT STAGE NOW.

ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO TOMORROWS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...IN WHICH
WE HAVE BEEN IN DISCUSSION WITH SPC FOR AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT
RISK. WE WILL DISCUSS THIS FURTHER WITH THE NEXT SHORT TERM AFD
UPDATE IN THE MID PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STALLED OUT FRONT WILL BEGIN WEAKENING SLOWLY TONIGHT BUT MORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE THE WHOLE TROPICAL CONNECTION IS DISRUPTED. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL EVEN THOUGH ASCENT AND FORCING
WILL WEAKEN. WILL LINGER CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BUT THEY GENERALLY SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY. REMOVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS INSTABILITY WANES. FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT TO
ADD FOG...BUT CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. IF WE HANG ON TO LOW
CLOUDS...LESS FOG WILL TAKE PLACE...BUT IF WERE TO CLEAR OUT...FOG
COULD A PROBLEM IN SPOTS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM
(ALREADY NICELY VISIBLE ON THE H20 LOOP ACROSS NORTHERN WI...WILL
TRACK OUR WAY DRAGGING A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT (OR
PERHAPS TWO) ACROSS OUR REGION. BASED ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME FORCING AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. SINCE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST ALONG THE
FRONT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...HELPING THE SUN TO WARM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
TO AROUND 80. WHILE THESE STORMS DO NOT LOOK TO BECOME
SEVERE...INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/K AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES JUST UNDER 6.5C/KM...COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. THE WIND
FIELD IN MODEST...WITH A 30KT WIND OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN.
THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 OR
EVEN 40 MPH. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS...BUT DID MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWO).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOME COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG AND THE STRONGEST
COLD ADVECTION COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY. SO...LOWS IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50...EXCEPT AROUND 40 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THURSDAY LOOKS
TO BE MAINLY SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
A BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY DRY LONG TERM PERIOD COMING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGION. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
(MONDAY) THE GFS HAS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE HIGH OVER THE REGION. WILL
FORECAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY OVER THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS...BUT WITH THE CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...FIND IT DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO INITIATE...SO HAVE IGNORED THE THREAT OF
THIS CONVECTION FOR NOW.

EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S.
HIGHS SATURDAY UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY MID OR UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY MID OR UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CONDITIONS HOVERING BETWEEN IFR AND LOW MVFR AT ALL SITES. TIMING
THE END OF THE RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUGGESTS LATE
AFTERNOON AT KPOU AND KALB...TOWARD EARLY EVENING AT KGFL AND
DURING THE EVENING AT KPSF. A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING
COULD OCCUR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM AT ALL SITES...WITH THE
LOWEST CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL 14Z-
15Z. LIGHT WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING COULD DELAY IMPROVEMENTS TO
VFR. SO...AFTER 14Z-15Z TOMORROW...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT SHOULD BECOME LESS
THAN 5 KT TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10
KT TOMORROW.

.OUTLOOK...
WED NGT-SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITION WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH PERIODIC RAIN (OR
SHOWERS) ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE MORE THAN AN
ADDITIONAL QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL TODAY. RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED.

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100
PERCENT. SOME DRYING ON WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE AND HUMIDITY LOWERING TO MODERATE LEVELS. HOWEVER...AS
ONE..IF NOT TWO COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AND LOOKS AS IF IT
COULD LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A BREEZE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST
WILL ALONG WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL HELP DROP AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO
LOWER LEVELS TO AROUND THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
OVER OUR REGION...WILL BRING MORE PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE OVERALL QPF TODAY AS IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH
WE WILL NOT RECEIVE STEADY HEAVY RAIN...BUT MORE PERIODIC LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL. OUR THINKING IS THAT ANY HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE
CONFINED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

THEREFORE...RAINFALL TOTALS NOW LOOK TO BE MORE IN THE 1-2+ INCH
RANGE...WITH MOST AREAS FAIR GAME TO POSSIBLY RECEIVE THIS AMOUNT.
WE STILL LOOK FOR AROUND AN INCH OR LESS IN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

ASSUMING THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WORK OUT...THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
ONLY SEE ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. OTHER
REGIONS WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME AREAS STILL REACHING ACTION STAGE. WHILE THE
THREAT OF ANY FUTURE FLOOD WATCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT...IT HAS DIMINISHED.

NEVERTHELESS...PONDING OF WATER IS A GOOD BET...MAINLY IN AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE AS RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES TONIGHT...MAINLY IN ANY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT RIVER BASIN QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

DRIER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 151732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING
ALONG IT THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL...TO MAINLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND INCREASINGLY
WARM WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM...ONGOING FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH SHORT-
WAVE IN SW FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY. BATCH OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL QUICKLY MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THE BACK EDGE HAS ALREADY REACHED THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND CLOSE TO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME SCT
SHOWERS REFORMING OVER CNTRL NY. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER
IN THE FCST FOR THE PM. WE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE
COOL STRATIFORM AIR MASS. RAINFALL RATES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN
THE ONE TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH HOUR RANGE. THE CURRENT NERFC
FORECASTS DO NOT BRING ANY POINTS TO FLOOD. ACTUALLY ONLY A FEW
REACH THE ALERT STAGE NOW.

ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO TOMORROWS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...IN WHICH
WE HAVE BEEN IN DISCUSSION WITH SPC FOR AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT
RISK. WE WILL DISCUSS THIS FURTHER WITH THE NEXT SHORT TERM AFD
UPDATE IN THE MID PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STALLED OUT FRONT WILL BEGIN WEAKENING SLOWLY TONIGHT BUT MORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE THE WHOLE TROPICAL CONNECTION IS DISRUPTED. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL EVEN THOUGH ASCENT AND FORCING
WILL WEAKEN. WILL LINGER CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BUT THEY GENERALLY SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY. REMOVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS INSTABILITY WANES. FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT TO
ADD FOG...BUT CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. IF WE HANG ON TO LOW
CLOUDS...LESS FOG WILL TAKE PLACE...BUT IF WERE TO CLEAR OUT...FOG
COULD A PROBLEM IN SPOTS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM
(ALREADY NICELY VISIBLE ON THE H20 LOOP ACROSS NORTHERN WI...WILL
TRACK OUR WAY DRAGGING A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT (OR
PERHAPS TWO) ACROSS OUR REGION. BASED ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME FORCING AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. SINCE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST ALONG THE
FRONT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...HELPING THE SUN TO WARM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
TO AROUND 80. WHILE THESE STORMS DO NOT LOOK TO BECOME
SEVERE...INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/K AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES JUST UNDER 6.5C/KM...COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. THE WIND
FIELD IN MODEST...WITH A 30KT WIND OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN.
THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 OR
EVEN 40 MPH. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS...BUT DID MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWO).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOME COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG AND THE STRONGEST
COLD ADVECTION COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY. SO...LOWS IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50...EXCEPT AROUND 40 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THURSDAY LOOKS
TO BE MAINLY SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
A BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MAINLY DRY LONG TERM PERIOD COMING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGION. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
(MONDAY) THE GFS HAS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE HIGH OVER THE REGION. WILL
FORECAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY OVER THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS...BUT WITH THE CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...FIND IT DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO INITIATE...SO HAVE IGNORED THE THREAT OF
THIS CONVECTION FOR NOW.

EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S.
HIGHS SATURDAY UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY MID OR UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY MID OR UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OUT OFTHE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A LULL IN THE PCPN FOR A WHILE
WHERE ONLY SCT RAINFALL OCCURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THIS MORNING...AND MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AT
KPOU. AFTER ABOUT 15Z TO 16Z...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCNL IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. AS THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVE LATER TODAY...
RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN WITH CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY
CIGS) BECOMING IFR AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY..

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 10 KTS TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...
WED...MAINLY VFR...ISOLD-SCT SHRA.
WED NGT-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITION WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH PERIODIC RAIN (OR
SHOWERS) ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE MORE THAN AN
ADDITIONAL QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL TODAY. RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED.

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100
PERCENT. SOME DRYING ON WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE AND HUMIDITY LOWERING TO MODERATE LEVELS. HOWEVER...AS
ONE..IF NOT TWO COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AND LOOKS AS IF IT
COULD LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A BREEZE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST
WILL ALONG WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL HELP DROP AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO
LOWER LEVELS TO AROUND THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
OVER OUR REGION...WILL BRING MORE PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE OVERALL QPF TODAY AS IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH
WE WILL NOT RECEIVE STEADY HEAVY RAIN...BUT MORE PERIODIC LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL. OUR THINKING IS THAT ANY HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE
CONFINED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

THEREFORE...RAINFALL TOTALS NOW LOOK TO BE MORE IN THE 1-2+ INCH
RANGE...WITH MOST AREAS FAIR GAME TO POSSIBLY RECEIVE THIS AMOUNT.
WE STILL LOOK FOR AROUND AN INCH OR LESS IN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

ASSUMING THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WORK OUT...THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
ONLY SEE ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. OTHER
REGIONS WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME AREAS STILL REACHING ACTION STAGE. WHILE THE
THREAT OF ANY FUTURE FLOOD WATCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT...IT HAS DIMINISHED.

NEVERTHELESS...PONDING OF WATER IS A GOOD BET...MAINLY IN AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE AS RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES TONIGHT...MAINLY IN ANY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT RIVER BASIN QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

DRIER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 151409
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1009 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS A PATHWAY FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
TO MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR EAST AND WEAKEN
TONIGHT. THEN ONE OR MAYBE TWO COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
FINALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN PA AND
INTO THE CATSKILLS AS MORE RAIN DEVELOPS EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LAST NIGHT CAUSING SOME RUNOFF AND SOME RIVERS ARE RISING...BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO GO BEYOND ACTION STAGE AT SOME POINTS. NEW RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST BATCH OF RAIN SHOULD
CAUSE SOME MODEST ADDITIONAL RISES...BUT AGAIN...SOME RIVER POINTS
MAY FLIRT WITH FLOOD STAGE...BUT MOST SHOULD NOT. JUST SOME MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND TIMING OF RAINFALL CHANCES BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STALLED OUT FRONT WILL BEGIN WEAKENING SLOWLY TONIGHT BUT MORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE THE WHOLE TROPICAL CONNECTION IS DISRUPTED. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL EVEN THOUGH ASCENT AND FORCING
WILL WEAKEN. WILL LINGER CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BUT THEY GENERALLY SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY. REMOVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS INSTABILITY WANES. FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT TO
ADD FOG...BUT CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. IF WE HANG ON TO LOW
CLOUDS...LESS FOG WILL TAKE PLACE...BUT IF WERE TO CLEAR OUT...FOG
COULD A PROBLEM IN SPOTS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM
(ALREADY NICELY VISIBLE ON THE H20 LOOP ACROSS NORTHERN WI...WILL
TRACK OUR WAY DRAGGING A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT (OR
PERHAPS TWO) ACROSS OUR REGION. BASED ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME FORCING AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. SINCE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST ALONG THE
FRONT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...HELPING THE SUN TO WARM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
TO AROUND 80. WHILE THESE STORMS DO NOT LOOK TO BECOME
SEVERE...INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/K AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES JUST UNDER 6.5C/KM...COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. THE WIND
FIELD IN MODEST...WITH A 30KT WIND OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN.
THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 OR
EVEN 40 MPH. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS...BUT DID MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWO).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOME COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG AND THE STRONGEST
COLD ADVECTION COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY. SO...LOWS IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50...EXCEPT AROUND 40 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THURSDAY LOOKS
TO BE MAINLY SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
A BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY DRY LONG TERM PERIOD COMING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGION. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
(MONDAY) THE GFS HAS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE HIGH OVER THE REGION. WILL
FORECAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY OVER THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS...BUT WITH THE CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...FIND IT DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO INITIATE...SO HAVE IGNORED THE THREAT OF
THIS CONVECTION FOR NOW.

EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S.
HIGHS SATURDAY UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY MID OR UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY MID OR UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OUT OFTHE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A LULL IN THE PCPN FOR A WHILE
WHERE ONLY SCT RAINFALL OCCURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THIS MORNING...AND MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AT
KPOU. AFTER ABOUT 15Z TO 16Z...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCNL IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. AS THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVE LATER TODAY...
RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN WITH CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY
CIGS) BECOMING IFR AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY..

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 10 KTS TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...
WED...MAINLY VFR...ISOLD-SCT SHRA.
WED NGT-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITION WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH PERIODIC RAIN (OR
SHOWERS) ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE MORE THAN AN
ADDITIONAL QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL TODAY. RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED.

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100
PERCENT. SOME DRYING ON WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE AND HUMIDITY LOWERING TO MODERATE LEVELS. HOWEVER...AS
ONE..IF NOT TWO COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AND LOOKS AS IF IT
COULD LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A BREEZE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST
WILL ALONG WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL HELP DROP AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO
LOWER LEVELS TO AROUND THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
OVER OUR REGION...WILL BRING MORE PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE OVERALL QPF TODAY AS IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH
WE WILL NOT RECEIVE STEADY HEAVY RAIN...BUT MORE PERIODIC LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL. OUR THINKING IS THAT ANY HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE
CONFINED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

THEREFORE...RAINFALL TOTALS NOW LOOK TO BE MORE IN THE 1-2+ INCH
RANGE...WITH MOST AREAS FAIR GAME TO POSSIBLY RECEIVE THIS AMOUNT.
WE STILL LOOK FOR AROUND AN INCH OR LESS IN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

ASSUMING THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WORK OUT...THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
ONLY SEE ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. OTHER
REGIONS WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME AREAS STILL REACHING ACTION STAGE. WHILE THE
THREAT OF ANY FUTURE FLOOD WATCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT...IT HAS DIMINISHED.

NEVERTHELESS...PONDING OF WATER IS A GOOD BET...MAINLY IN AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE AS RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES TONIGHT...MAINLY IN ANY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT RIVER BASIN QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

DRIER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 151357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
957 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER FROM
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

PER CHATHAM 12Z SOUNDING MUCH DRIER AIR HAS INFUSED WITHIN THE
LOW-MID LVLS LIKELY DUE TO THE ENHANCEMENT OF RIDGING WWD FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THIS HAS LED TO THE REPRIEVE OF WET WEATHER FOR THE
SHORT-TERM HANDLED VERY WELL THIS MORNING BY MUCH OF THE FCST
GUIDANCE.

LOOKING DOWNSTREAM...WALLOPS ISLAND 12Z SOUNDING IS COINCIDENT
WITH A WEAK WARM FRNTL BOUNDARY PARENT TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. STRONG REARWARD LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENCE
AIDED BY A 40 KT LLJ /ENHANCED BY AN INITIAL SHRTWV THRU THE MID-
ATLANTIC/ IS LENDING TO A BAND OF HEAVY PRECIP COLLOCATED WITH
PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES /PER SPC MESOANALYSIS/.

HRRR AND WRF-ARW MODELING THE PRESENT SITUATION WELL...AND HAVE
THIS BAND INITIALLY IMPACTING THE WRN FCST AREA AROUND NOON
SPREADING INTO ERN NEW ENGLAND PRIOR TO DUSK /MAY TAKE A LITTLE
BIT OF TIME TO OVERCOME THE LOW-MID LVL DRY AIR PRESENTLY OVER THE
RGN/. MUCH OF THIS ENERGY IS BEING KICKED BY A STRONG SHRTWV
DISTURBANCE DIVING SEWD OUT OF CANADA THRU THE ERN GRT LKS. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

NOT THINKING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER...MOSTLY HEAVY RAIN. ANY
INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED AND REMAIN BELOW -10C /LESS LIFT
WITHIN FAVORABLE RGNS OF ICE FORMATION/. HEAVY RAIN DOES POSE
CONCERN FOR PSBL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...SO WILL BE
MONITORING CLOSELY.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON TRACK. CONTINUE TO FEEL HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. HOWEVER...
ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME LOCATIONS ON THE COASTAL
PLAIN BREAK 70 IF THEY ARE ABLE TO SEE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
COMBINES WITH DEEP MOISTURE/LIFT.  THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH...SO BRIEF LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY.  THIS MAY LEAD
TO BRIEF NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.  THERE ALSO IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NOTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST SO HAVE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
* DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
15/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IN DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WX
DETAILS ARE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE ARE
STILL A FEW ISSUES TO WORK OUT REGARDING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION
WED...BUT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT /A FEATURE MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON/ WOULD SUGGEST BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD
BE GENERALLY W OF THE AREA INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF MA/CT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BEYOND THU...THE KEY IS THAT MODELS ARE GENERALLY
HANDLING THE TRANSITION TO STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ERN
STATES BEGINNING THU AS NRN QC CUTOFF LOW SHIFTS OVER THE NRN
MARITIMES. GIVEN THAT NO ONE MODEL IS FAVORED IN THIS CASE...WILL
LEAN TOWARD DRY FORECAST FEATURED BY BOTH GFS/ECMWF FOR THU
ONWARD.

DETAILS...

WED INTO WED NIGHT...
INITIAL WARM FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE S AND E COASTS
DURING THE MORNING. THERE IS ENOUGH LLVL FRONTOGENESIS WITH AN
INCREASING LLJ TO 45 KT WITH THIS FEATURE...SO SUSPECT THAT SRN
AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL BE EXPERIENCING SOME MORNING SHRA
ACTIVITY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
/AROUND 100-200J/KG CAPE/ ABOVE THE SFC WARM FRONTAL INVERSION SO
AN ISOLD RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE SFC INVERSION...IT APPEARS THAT MIXING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY TAPPING THE 45 KT SLY LLJ. SO...IT APPEARS WIND
CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL.

DURING THE DAY WED INTO WED NIGHT...AS WARM FRONT MOVES
E...SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEGINNING TO BUILD IN
ALOFT WITH H5 TEMPS DIPPING TO -15C OR LOWER. THE DRY AIR WILL
ALSO PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY FOR PEEKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND WRN AREAS. THIS SETS UP THE
POSSIBILITY FOR DESTABILIZATION OF THE COLUMN AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
WARM FRONT MOVING E FROM NY STATE. NEAR SFC LAYER REMAINS
RELATIVELY MOIST...SFC BASED CAPE VALUES +1000J/KG ARE APPARENT
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME WEAK DIFFLUENT VENTING
ALOFT...AND SOME LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY W OF AFN-ORH-IJD LINE. HOWEVER...BEST
CHANCE FOR LIFT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT ITSELF...TO THE W AND
OVER NY...AWAY FROM THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE MORNING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALSO...WITH LITTLE SHEAR /LLJ IS ONLY AROUND 25 KT AT
BEST/ CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED AND WILL REQUIRE THE
LIFT THAT THE FRONT ITSELF PROVIDES FOR ADDITIONAL SUPPORT.
THEREFORE...WILL GENERALLY KEEP BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE SLIM
CAPE PROFILE...IS FOR DOWNPOURS IN ANY TSTMS THAT DO REACH WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FA. DESPITE THE FRONT BEING PROGGED TO CROSS THE
REGION WED NIGHT...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS THE
ADVECTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE COLUMN ALOFT WILL LIKELY ALLOW MOST
OF THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THU INTO FRI...
UPPER LVL CUTOFF OVER NRN QC PROVINCE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E.
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL USHER IN HIGH PRES AND A COOL
AIRMASS THU INT FRI. THE HIGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY
DRY...BUT ONE ISSUE TO WATCH WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES THU NIGHT INTO FRI. H85 TEMPS IN NRN MA AND
SRN NH DIP TO AROUND 0C BY 12Z FRI...WITH A GOOD INVERSION
APPARENT ON SOUNDINGS THANKS TO WEAK NEAR SFC FLOW. NORMALLY COLD
VALLEYS WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY LOW TO
MODERATE THAT FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT IT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...THE COOL AIRMASS WOULD ONLY
SUPPORT TEMPS NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
PERSISTENT WARM SE FLOW WILL BE FEEDING RIDGING OVER THE SE
STATES DURING THE PERIOD. THIS RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD OVER
THE E AND NE CONUS...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING MID LVL TEMPS AND
GENERALLY PERSISTENTLY DRY COLUMNS. THEREFORE...WILL TREND FCST
TOWARD A MOSTLY DRY SOLN. ATTM...BEST CHANCES FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WITH WET WX WOULD BE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BUT WITH
THE FINAL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION
MARK...ANY SHORTWAVE EARLIER COULD BE AN ISSUE. GIVEN THAT THE
RIDGE IS WELL AGREED UPON...CONFIDENCE FOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR 6 TO 8 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.
VFR CONTINUES OVER MOST TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
HORUS. AFTER THAT...A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH GRADUALLY REDUCTION TO MVFR...THEN
ULTIMATELY IFR TONIGHT. EXPECT TIMING OF MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON W
OF ORH...THEN BY LATE EVENING E. VSBYS REDUCED IN -SHRA. WINDS
GENERALLY S WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER ERN TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH EVENING...THEN EXPECTING A GRADUAL REDUCTION TO
MVFR THEN IFR AS AN AREA OF -SHRA MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WINDS OUT OF THE S WITH GUSTS 2O TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN
EXPECT ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE OVER AND CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR AND IFR/LIFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR. POSSIBLE SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER W OF IJD-
ORH-AFN LINE.

THU THROUGH SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
LONG FETCH SHOULD ALLOW SEAS OVER THE OPEN WATERS TO BUILD TO SCA
LEVELS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  INVERSION OVER THE WATERS SHOULD
KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT...BUT 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY HAVE HEADLINES JUST FOR THE OPEN WATERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE A FEW HOURS OF 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS
OCCUR NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT FUSED NEAR SHORE SCA.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED INTO WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN OUTER
WATERS AND SRN WATERS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

THU INTO SAT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS. AFTER 5 FT
SWELLS OVER THE OUTER WATERS DIMINISH THU...GENERALLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
EQUIPMENT...WFO BOX

000
FXUS61 KBOX 151124
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
724 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER FROM
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
MAJOR CHANGES ONLY ON THE SKIES AND POPS THIS MORNING. A BRIEF
REINFORCEMENT OF LLVL RIDGING AS WEAK LOW PRES INITIATES WELL SW
OF THE AREA HAVE COMBINED TO CAUSE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERY ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE GENERALLY SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS THE
BAND WILL BEGIN A SECOND ERD MIGRATION THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH QC.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH TODAY/S FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE
STRENGTH OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND HOW FAR EAST THE MAIN SHIELD OF
PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO ADVANCE.

SHOWERS REMAIN LOCKED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
AFTER REVIEWING THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...FEEL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN DRY INTO AT LEAST MID
AFTERNOON.  WHILE CLOUDY SKIES WILL DOMINATE IN THIS REGION...ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW PEEKS OF SUN ARE SEEN.  WE SHOULD
SEE SHOWERS FINALLY MAKE IT ONTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN.

ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE CURRENT SHOWERS
TEMPORARILY RETREATED EVEN FURTHER NORTH AND WEST FOR A TIME LATER
THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION BY MID AFTERNOON AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.  HIGH PWAT
VALUES MAY LEAD TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
HOWEVER...ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME LOCATIONS ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN BREAK 70 IF THEY ARE ABLE TO SEE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
COMBINES WITH DEEP MOISTURE/LIFT.  THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH...SO BRIEF LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY.  THIS MAY LEAD
TO BRIEF NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.  THERE ALSO IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NOTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST SO HAVE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
* DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
15/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IN DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WX
DETAILS ARE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE ARE
STILL A FEW ISSUES TO WORK OUT REGARDING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION
WED...BUT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT /A FEATURE MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON/ WOULD SUGGEST BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD
BE GENERALLY W OF THE AREA INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF MA/CT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BEYOND THU...THE KEY IS THAT MODELS ARE GENERALLY
HANDLING THE TRANSITION TO STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ERN
STATES BEGINNING THU AS NRN QC CUTOFF LOW SHIFTS OVER THE NRN
MARITIMES. GIVEN THAT NO ONE MODEL IS FAVORED IN THIS CASE...WILL
LEAN TOWARD DRY FORECAST FEATURED BY BOTH GFS/ECMWF FOR THU
ONWARD.

DETAILS...

WED INTO WED NIGHT...
INITIAL WARM FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE S AND E COASTS
DURING THE MORNING. THERE IS ENOUGH LLVL FRONTOGENESIS WITH AN
INCREASING LLJ TO 45 KT WITH THIS FEATURE...SO SUSPECT THAT SRN
AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL BE EXPERIENCING SOME MORNING SHRA
ACTIVITY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
/AROUND 100-200J/KG CAPE/ ABOVE THE SFC WARM FRONTAL INVERSION SO
AN ISOLD RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE SFC INVERSION...IT APPEARS THAT MIXING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY TAPPING THE 45 KT SLY LLJ. SO...IT APPEARS WIND
CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL.

DURING THE DAY WED INTO WED NIGHT...AS WARM FRONT MOVES
E...SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEGINNING TO BUILD IN
ALOFT WITH H5 TEMPS DIPPING TO -15C OR LOWER. THE DRY AIR WILL
ALSO PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY FOR PEEKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND WRN AREAS. THIS SETS UP THE
POSSIBILITY FOR DESTABILIZATION OF THE COLUMN AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
WARM FRONT MOVING E FROM NY STATE. NEAR SFC LAYER REMAINS
RELATIVELY MOIST...SFC BASED CAPE VALUES +1000J/KG ARE APPARENT
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME WEAK DIFFLUENT VENTING
ALOFT...AND SOME LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY W OF AFN-ORH-IJD LINE. HOWEVER...BEST
CHANCE FOR LIFT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT ITSELF...TO THE W AND
OVER NY...AWAY FROM THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE MORNING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALSO...WITH LITTLE SHEAR /LLJ IS ONLY AROUND 25 KT AT
BEST/ CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED AND WILL REQUIRE THE
LIFT THAT THE FRONT ITSELF PROVIDES FOR ADDITIONAL SUPPORT.
THEREFORE...WILL GENERALLY KEEP BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE SLIM
CAPE PROFILE...IS FOR DOWNPOURS IN ANY TSTMS THAT DO REACH WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FA. DESPITE THE FRONT BEING PROGGED TO CROSS THE
REGION WED NIGHT...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS THE
ADVECTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE COLUMN ALOFT WILL LIKELY ALLOW MOST
OF THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THU INTO FRI...
UPPER LVL CUTOFF OVER NRN QC PROVINCE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E.
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL USHER IN HIGH PRES AND A COOL
AIRMASS THU INT FRI. THE HIGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY
DRY...BUT ONE ISSUE TO WATCH WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES THU NIGHT INTO FRI. H85 TEMPS IN NRN MA AND
SRN NH DIP TO AROUND 0C BY 12Z FRI...WITH A GOOD INVERSION
APPARENT ON SOUNDINGS THANKS TO WEAK NEAR SFC FLOW. NORMALLY COLD
VALLEYS WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY LOW TO
MODERATE THAT FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT IT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...THE COOL AIRMASS WOULD ONLY
SUPPORT TEMPS NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
PERSISTENT WARM SE FLOW WILL BE FEEDING RIDGING OVER THE SE
STATES DURING THE PERIOD. THIS RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD OVER
THE E AND NE CONUS...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING MID LVL TEMPS AND
GENERALLY PERSISTENTLY DRY COLUMNS. THEREFORE...WILL TREND FCST
TOWARD A MOSTLY DRY SOLN. ATTM...BEST CHANCES FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WITH WET WX WOULD BE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BUT WITH
THE FINAL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION
MARK...ANY SHORTWAVE EARLIER COULD BE AN ISSUE. GIVEN THAT THE
RIDGE IS WELL AGREED UPON...CONFIDENCE FOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR 6 TO 8 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.
VFR CONTINUES OVER MOST TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
HORUS. AFTER THAT...A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH GRADUALLY REDUCTION TO MVFR...THEN
ULTIMATELY IFR TONIGHT. EXPECT TIMING OF MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON W
OF ORH...THEN BY LATE EVENING E. VSBYS REDUCED IN -SHRA. WINDS
GENERALLY S WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER ERN TERMINALS.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH EVENING...THEN EXPECTING A GRADUAL REDUCTION TO
MVFR THEN IFR AS AN AREA OF -SHRA MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WINDS OUT OF THE S WITH GUSTS 2O TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN
EXPECT ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE OVER AND CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR AND IFR/LIFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR. POSSIBLE SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER W OF IJD-
ORH-AFN LINE.

THU THROUGH SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
LONG FETCH SHOULD ALLOW SEAS OVER THE OPEN WATERS TO BUILD TO SCA
LEVELS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  INVERSION OVER THE WATERS SHOULD
KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT...BUT 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY HAVE HEADLINES JUST FOR THE OPEN WATERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE A FEW HOURS OF 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS
OCCUR NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT FUSED NEAR SHORE SCA.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED INTO WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN OUTER
WATERS AND SRN WATERS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

THU INTO SAT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS. AFTER 5 FT
SWELLS OVER THE OUTER WATERS DIMINISH THU...GENERALLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
EQUIPMENT...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 151101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS A PATHWAY FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
TO MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR EAST AND WEAKEN
TONIGHT. THEN ONE OR MAYBE TWO COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
FINALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...SAW NO GOOD REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE PREVIOUS
THINKING. MAINLY TOUCHED UP HOURLY GRIDS.

RADARS INDICATED OUR DIMINISHING RETURNS OF SHOWERS/RAIN...ARE ABOUT
TO HEAD THE OTHER WAY...BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE NEXT
BATCH OF RAIN/SHOWERS WAS MOVING FROM NORTHEASTERN PA...NE INTO OUR
SE CATSKILLS. EARLIER WE THOUGHT THAT THIS BATCH MIGHT GO MORE TO
THE NORTH...BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR REGION
WITHIN THE HOUR. THERE IS MORE OF WHERE THIS COMES FROM...INCLUDING
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS DOWN IN VA...TRAINING JUST TO
THE WEST OF DC. THIS IS THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE H20 WATER LOOP INDICATED THE COOLING TOP WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE...OVER VA...INDICATIVE OF STRENGTHENING ASCENT. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING LIKE STRIKES HAVE DIMINISHED FOR NOW...SO FEEL
PRETTY CONFIDENT NOT GOING TO SEE MUCH IF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DURING THE FORENOON.

THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE INTO OUR REGION BY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MODELS DIFFER IN HOW
MUCH RAIN WOULD FALL WITH THIS DISTURBANCE BY QUITE A BIT. THE 06Z
NAM BRINGS HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN...PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2+
INCHES OF RAINFALL. THE  06Z GFS QPF WAS QUITE A BIT LIGHTER...WITH
THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL STAYING TO OUR SOUTH. TIME WILL TELL WHICH
VERSION IS MORE CORRECT BUT FOR NOW WE LEAN BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO CALL IN PERIODS OF RAIN FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING
HEN...LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MIGHT BE A TENDENCY FOR THE
ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE...ESPECIALLY IF WE WERE TO GET A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HAVE ADDED THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS MUCAPES LOOK TO INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG (MORE
IF YOU BUY THE NAM/S SOLUTION...OVER 1000 J/KG IN SOME CASES). PWATS
CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A WEAK
TROPICAL CONNECTION IS IN PLACE. HAD THERE BEEN A STRONGER LOW LEVEL
AND SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IN GENERAL...THIS WOULD HAVE BEEN A MORE
PROLIFIC RAIN MAKER.

EVEN SO...IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO GET GOING THEY COULD PUT DOWN
SOME PRETTY HEAVY RAIN. LUCKILY...THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 30 MPH.

NO HEADLINES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE HELD TO THE 60S TODAY. HOWEVER...IN
THE UNLIKELY EVENT WE WERE TO GET ANY REAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...THEY
COULD EASILY POP INTO THE 70S AS THEY DID YESTERDAY. OF COURSE...ANY
HEATING WOULD ONLY LIKELY INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE SINCE THE WIND FLOW IS
NOT THAT STRONG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE REMAIN MODEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STALLED OUT FRONT WILL BEGIN WEAKENING SLOWLY TONIGHT BUT MORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE THE WHOLE TROPICAL CONNECTION IS DISRUPTED. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL EVEN THOUGH ASCENT AND FORCING
WILL WEAKEN. WILL LINGER CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BUT THEY GENERALLY SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY. REMOVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS INSTABILITY WANES. FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT TO
ADD FOG...BUT CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. IF WE HANG ON TO LOW
CLOUDS...LESS FOG WILL TAKE PLACE...BUT IF WERE TO CLEAR OUT...FOG
COULD A PROBLEM IN SPOTS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM
(ALREADY NICELY VISIBLE ON THE H20 LOOP ACROSS NORTHERN WI...WILL
TRACK OUR WAY DRAGGING A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT (OR
PERHAPS TWO) ACROSS OUR REGION. BASED ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME FORCING AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. SINCE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST ALONG THE
FRONT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...HELPING THE SUN TO WARM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
TO AROUND 80. WHILE THESE STORMS DO NOT LOOK TO BECOME
SEVERE...INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/K AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES JUST UNDER 6.5C/KM...COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. THE WIND
FIELD IN MODEST...WITH A 30KT WIND OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN.
THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 OR
EVEN 40 MPH. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS...BUT DID MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWO).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOME COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG AND THE STRONGEST
COLD ADVECTION COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY. SO...LOWS IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50...EXCEPT AROUND 40 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THURSDAY LOOKS
TO BE MAINLY SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
A BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY DRY LONG TERM PERIOD COMING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGION. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
(MONDAY) THE GFS HAS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE HIGH OVER THE REGION. WILL
FORECAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY OVER THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS...BUT WITH THE CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...FIND IT DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO INITIATE...SO HAVE IGNORED THE THREAT OF
THIS CONVECTION FOR NOW.

EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S.
HIGHS SATURDAY UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY MID OR UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY MID OR UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OUT OFTHE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A LULL IN THE PCPN FOR A WHILE
WHERE ONLY SCT RAINFALL OCCURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THIS MORNING...AND MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AT
KPOU. AFTER ABOUT 15Z TO 16Z...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCNL IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. AS THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVE LATER TODAY...
RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN WITH CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY
CIGS) BECOMING IFR AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY..

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 10 KTS TODAY...THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...
WED...MAINLY VFR...ISOLD-SCT SHRA.
WED NGT-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITION WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH PERIODIC RAIN (OR
SHOWERS) ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE MORE THAN AN
ADDITIONAL QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL TODAY. RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED.

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100
PERCENT. SOME DRYING ON WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE AND HUMIDITY LOWERING TO MODERATE LEVELS. HOWEVER...AS
ONE..IF NOT TWO COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AND LOOKS AS IF IT
COULD LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A BREEZE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST
WILL ALONG WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL HELP DROP AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO
LOWER LEVELS TO AROUND THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
OVER OUR REGION...WILL BRING MORE PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE OVERALL QPF TODAY AS IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH
WE WILL NOT RECEIVE STEADY HEAVY RAIN...BUT MORE PERIODIC LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL. OUR THINKING IS THAT ANY HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE
CONFINED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

THEREFORE...RAINFALL TOTALS NOW LOOK TO BE MORE IN THE 1-2+ INCH
RANGE...WITH MOST AREAS FAIR GAME TO POSSIBLY RECEIVE THIS AMOUNT.
WE STILL LOOK FOR AROUND AN INCH OR LESS IN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

ASSUMING THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WORK OUT...THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
ONLY SEE ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. OTHER
REGIONS WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME AREAS STILL REACHING ACTION STAGE. WHILE THE
THREAT OF ANY FUTURE FLOOD WATCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT...IT HAS DIMINISHED.

NEVERTHELESS...PONDING OF WATER IS A GOOD BET...MAINLY IN AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE AS RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES TONIGHT...MAINLY IN ANY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT RIVER BASIN QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

DRIER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 151040
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS A PATHWAY FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
TO MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR EAST AND WEAKEN
TONIGHT. THEN ONE OR MAYBE TWO COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
FINALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...SAW NO GOOD REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE PREVIOUS
THINKING. MAINLY TOUCHED UP HOURLY GRIDS.

RADARS INDICATED OUR DIMINISHING RETURNS OF SHOWERS/RAIN...ARE ABOUT
TO HEAD THE OTHER WAY...BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE NEXT
BATCH OF RAIN/SHOWERS WAS MOVING FROM NORTHEASTERN PA...NE INTO OUR
SE CATSKILLS. EARLIER WE THOUGHT THAT THIS BATCH MIGHT GO MORE TO
THE NORTH...BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR REGION
WITHIN THE HOUR. THERE IS MORE OF WHERE THIS COMES FROM...INCLUDING
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS DOWN IN VA...TRAINING JUST TO
THE WEST OF DC. THIS IS THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE H20 WATER LOOP INDICATED THE COOLING TOP WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE...OVER VA...INDICATIVE OF STRENGTHENING ASCENT. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING LIKE STRIKES HAVE DIMINISHED FOR NOW...SO FEEL
PRETTY CONFIDENT NOT GOING TO SEE MUCH IF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DURING THE FORENOON.

THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE INTO OUR REGION BY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MODELS DIFFER IN HOW
MUCH RAIN WOULD FALL WITH THIS DISTURBANCE BY QUITE A BIT. THE 06Z
NAM BRINGS HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN...PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2+
INCHES OF RAINFALL. THE  06Z GFS QPF WAS QUITE A BIT LIGHTER...WITH
THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL STAYING TO OUR SOUTH. TIME WILL TELL WHICH
VERSION IS MORE CORRECT BUT FOR NOW WE LEAN BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO CALL IN PERIODS OF RAIN FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING
HEN...LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MIGHT BE A TENDENCY FOR THE
ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE...ESPECIALLY IF WE WERE TO GET A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HAVE ADDED THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS MUCAPES LOOK TO INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG (MORE
IF YOU BUY THE NAM/S SOLUTION...OVER 1000 J/KG IN SOME CASES). PWATS
CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A WEAK
TROPICAL CONNECTION IS IN PLACE. HAD THERE BEEN A STRONGER LOW LEVEL
AND SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IN GENERAL...THIS WOULD HAVE BEEN A MORE
PROLIFIC RAIN MAKER.

EVEN SO...IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO GET GOING THEY COULD PUT DOWN
SOME PRETTY HEAVY RAIN. LUCKILY...THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 30 MPH.

NO HEADLINES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE HELD TO THE 60S TODAY. HOWEVER...IN
THE UNLIKELY EVENT WE WERE TO GET ANY REAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...THEY
COULD EASILY POP INTO THE 70S AS THEY DID YESTERDAY. OF COURSE...ANY
HEATING WOULD ONLY LIKELY INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE SINCE THE WIND FLOW IS
NOT THAT STRONG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE REMAIN MODEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STALLED OUT FRONT WILL BEGIN WEAKENING SLOWLY TONIGHT BUT MORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE THE WHOLE TROPICAL CONNECTION IS DISRUPTED. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL EVEN THOUGH ASCENT AND FORCING
WILL WEAKEN. WILL LINGER CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BUT THEY GENERALLY SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY. REMOVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS INSTABILITY WANES. FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT TO
ADD FOG...BUT CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. IF WE HANG ON TO LOW
CLOUDS...LESS FOG WILL TAKE PLACE...BUT IF WERE TO CLEAR OUT...FOG
COULD A PROBLEM IN SPOTS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM
(ALREADY NICELY VISIBLE ON THE H20 LOOP ACROSS NORTHERN WI...WILL
TRACK OUR WAY DRAGGING A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT (OR
PERHAPS TWO) ACROSS OUR REGION. BASED ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME FORCING AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. SINCE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST ALONG THE
FRONT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...HELPING THE SUN TO WARM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
TO AROUND 80. WHILE THESE STORMS DO NOT LOOK TO BECOME
SEVERE...INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/K AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES JUST UNDER 6.5C/KM...COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. THE WIND
FIELD IN MODEST...WITH A 30KT WIND OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN.
THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 OR
EVEN 40 MPH. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS...BUT DID MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWO).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOME COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG AND THE STRONGEST
COLD ADVECTION COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY. SO...LOWS IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50...EXCEPT AROUND 40 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THURSDAY LOOKS
TO BE MAINLY SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
A BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY DRY LONG TERM PERIOD COMING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGION. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
(MONDAY) THE GFS HAS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE HIGH OVER THE REGION. WILL
FORECAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY OVER THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS...BUT WITH THE CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...FIND IT DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO INITIATE...SO HAVE IGNORED THE THREAT OF
THIS CONVECTION FOR NOW.

EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S.
HIGHS SATURDAY UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY MID OR UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY MID OR UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING  ROUND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE REGION FROM THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD
THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING TUESDAY. MAINLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 14Z TO 15Z.
AT KPOU CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE MVFR RATHER THAN IFR. AFTER
THAT...THERE WILL A LULL IN THE PCPN WITH ONLY SCATTERED PCPN. VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN TO VFR...BUT CIGS WILL BE MVFR AT THE TAF SITES
FROM ABOUT 15Z TO ABOUT 00Z TO 01Z WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND WAVE OF
PCPN WILL MOVE IN AFTER THAT WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY IFR CIGS/MVFR
VSBYS AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES.

REGIONAL RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES DO NOT SHOW ANY WINDS STRONGER THAN
25 KTS ALOFT UNTIL ABOVE 10000 FEET...SO HAVE REMOVE ANY MENTION OF
LLWS FROM THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KTS THROUGH
15Z...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 15 KTS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z WINDS WILL
BE 5 TO 10 KS FROM THE SAME DIRECTION...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...
LATE TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR -RA/RA LIKELY.
WED...MAINLY VFR...ISOLD-SCT SHRA.
WED NGT-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITION WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH PERIODIC RAIN (OR
SHOWERS) ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE MORE THAN AN
ADDITIONAL QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL TODAY. RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED.

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100
PERCENT. SOME DRYING ON WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE AND HUMIDITY LOWERING TO MODERATE LEVELS. HOWEVER...AS
ONE..IF NOT TWO COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AND LOOKS AS IF IT
COULD LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A BREEZE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST
WILL ALONG WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL HELP DROP AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO
LOWER LEVELS TO AROUND THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
OVER OUR REGION...WILL BRING MORE PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE OVERALL QPF TODAY AS IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH
WE WILL NOT RECEIVE STEADY HEAVY RAIN...BUT MORE PERIODIC LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL. OUR THINKING IS THAT ANY HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE
CONFINED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

THEREFORE...RAINFALL TOTALS NOW LOOK TO BE MORE IN THE 1-2+ INCH
RANGE...WITH MOST AREAS FAIR GAME TO POSSIBLY RECEIVE THIS AMOUNT.
WE STILL LOOK FOR AROUND AN INCH OR LESS IN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

ASSUMING THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WORK OUT...THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
ONLY SEE ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. OTHER
REGIONS WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME AREAS STILL REACHING ACTION STAGE. WHILE THE
THREAT OF ANY FUTURE FLOOD WATCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT...IT HAS DIMINISHED.

NEVERTHELESS...PONDING OF WATER IS A GOOD BET...MAINLY IN AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE AS RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES TONIGHT...MAINLY IN ANY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT RIVER BASIN QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

DRIER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 150858
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
459 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS A PATHWAY FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
TO MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR EAST AND WEAKEN
TONIGHT. THEN ONE OR MAYBE TWO COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
FINALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM...RADARS ACTUALLY SHOWING A DECREASE IN AREAL RAIN
COVERAGE...AND REALLY ONE COULD ARGUE JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WE ARE SOCKED IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND REMAIN IN AN AREA
OF BROAD ASCENT...THANKS TO BEING THE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEFT JET AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO CALL IN PERIODS OF RAIN FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING
AS MORE DISTURBANCES RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONT. THEN...LATER ON THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE MIGHT BE A TENDENCY FOR THE ACTIVITY TO BECOME
MORE CONVECTIVE...ESPECIALLY IF WE WERE TO GET A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. HAVE ADDED THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MUCAPES LOOK
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG (MORE IF YOU BUY THE NAM/S
SOLUTION...OVER 1000 J/KG IN SOME CASES). PWATS CONTINUE TO RUN
AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A WEAK TROPICAL CONNECTION
IS IN PLACE. HAD THERE BEEN A STRONGER LOW LEVEL AND SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
IN GENERAL...THIS WOULD HAVE BEEN A MORE PROLIFIC RAIN MAKER.

EVEN SO...IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO GET GOING THEY COULD PUT DOWN
SOME PRETTY HEAVY RAIN. LUCKILY...THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 30 MPH.

NO HEADLINES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE HELD TO THE 60S. HOWEVER...IN THE
UNLIKELY EVENT WE WERE TO GET ANY REAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...THEY
COULD EASILY POP INTO THE 70S AS THEY DID YESTERDAY. OF COURSE...ANY
HEATING WOULD ONLY LIKELY INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE SINCE THE WIND FLOW IS
NOT THAT STRONG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE REMAIN MODEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STALLED OUT FRONT WILL BEGIN WEAKENING SLOWLY TONIGHT BUT MORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE THE WHOLE TROPICAL CONNECTION IS DISRUPTED. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL EVEN THOUGH ASCENT AND FORCING
WILL WEAKEN. WILL LINGER CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BUT THEY GENERALLY SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY. REMOVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS INSTABILITY WANES. FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT TO
ADD FOG...BUT CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. IF WE HANG ON TO LOW
CLOUDS...LESS FOG WILL TAKE PLACE...BUT IF WERE TO CLEAR OUT...FOG
COULD A PROBLEM IN SPOTS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...HELPING THE SUN TO WARM
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOME COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG AND THE STRONGEST
COLD ADVECTION COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY. SO...LOWS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THURSDAY LOOKS
TO BE SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY DRY LONG TERM PERIOD COMING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGION. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
(MONDAY) THE GFS HAS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BUT
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE HIGH OVER THE REGION. WILL
FORECAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY OVER THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS...BUT WITH THE CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...FIND IT DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO INITIATE...SO HAVE IGNORED THE THREAT OF
THIS CONVECTION FOR NOW.

EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S.
HIGHS SATURDAY UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY MID OR UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS MONDAY MID OR UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING  ROUND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE REGION FROM THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD
THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING TUESDAY. MAINLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 14Z TO 15Z.
AT KPOU CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE MVFR RATHER THAN IFR. AFTER
THAT...THERE WILL A LULL IN THE PCPN WITH ONLY SCATTERED PCPN. VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN TO VFR...BUT CIGS WILL BE MVFR AT THE TAF SITES
FROM ABOUT 15Z TO ABOUT 00Z TO 01Z WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND WAVE OF
PCPN WILL MOVE IN AFTER THAT WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY IFR CIGS/MVFR
VSBYS AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES.

REGIONAL RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES DO NOT SHOW ANY WINDS STRONGER THAN
25 KTS ALOFT UNTIL ABOVE 10000 FEET...SO HAVE REMOVE ANY MENTION OF
LLWS FROM THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KTS THROUGH
15Z...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 15 KTS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z WINDS WILL
BE 5 TO 10 KS FROM THE SAME DIRECTION...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...
LATE TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR -RA/RA LIKELY.
WED...MAINLY VFR...ISOLD-SCT SHRA.
WED NGT-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITION WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH PERIODIC RAIN (OR
SHOWERS) ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE MORE THAN AN
ADDITIONAL QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL TODAY. RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED.

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100
PERCENT. SOME DRYING ON WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE AND HUMIDITY LOWERING TO MODERATE LEVELS. HOWEVER...AS
ONE..IF NOT TWO COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AND LOOKS AS IF IT
COULD LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A BREEZE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST
WILL ALONG WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL HELP DROP AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO
LOWER LEVELS INTO THE 30S ON THURSDAY.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
OVER OUR REGION...WILL BRING MORE PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE OVERALL QPF TODAY AS IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH
WE WILL NOT STEADY HEAVY RAIN...BUT MORE PERIODIC LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL. OUR THINKING IS THAT ANY HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE CONFINED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM .

THEREFORE...RAINFALL TOTALS NOW LOOK TO BE MORE IN THE 1-2+ INCH
RANGE...WITH MOST AREAS FAIR GAME TO POSSIBLY RECEIVE THIS AMOUNT.
WE STILL LOOK FOR AROUND AN INCH OR LESS IN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

ASSUMING THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WORK OUT...THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
ONLY SEE ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. OTHER
REGIONS WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH SOME AREAS STILL REACHING ACTION STAGE. WHILE THE
THREAT OF ANY FLOOD WATCHES CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...IT HAS
DIMINISHED.

NEVERTHELESS...PONDING OF WATER IS A GOOD BET...MAINLY IN AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE AS RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES TONIGHT...MAINLY IN ANY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT RIVER BASIN QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

DRIER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 150759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER FROM
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH TODAY/S FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE
STRENGTH OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND HOW FAR EAST THE MAIN SHIELD OF
PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO ADVANCE.

SHOWERS REMAIN LOCKED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
AFTER REVIEWING THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...FEEL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN DRY INTO AT LEAST MID
AFTERNOON.  WHILE CLOUDY SKIES WILL DOMINATE IN THIS REGION...ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW PEEKS OF SUN ARE SEEN.  WE SHOULD
SEE SHOWERS FINALLY MAKE IT ONTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN.

ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE CURRENT SHOWERS
TEMPORARILY RETREATED EVEN FURTHER NORTH AND WEST FOR A TIME LATER
THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION BY MID AFTERNOON AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.  HIGH PWAT
VALUES MAY LEAD TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
HOWEVER...ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME LOCATIONS ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN BREAK 70 IF THEY ARE ABLE TO SEE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
COMBINES WITH DEEP MOISTURE/LIFT.  THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH...SO BRIEF LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY.  THIS MAY LEAD
TO BRIEF NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.  THERE ALSO IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NOTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST SO HAVE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
* DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
15/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IN DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WX
DETAILS ARE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE ARE
STILL A FEW ISSUES TO WORK OUT REGARDING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION
WED...BUT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT /A FEATURE MOST GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON/ WOULD SUGGEST BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD
BE GENERALLY W OF THE AREA INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF MA/CT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BEYOND THU...THE KEY IS THAT MODELS ARE GENERALLY
HANDLING THE TRANSITION TO STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ERN
STATES BEGINNING THU AS NRN QC CUTOFF LOW SHIFTS OVER THE NRN
MARITIMES. GIVEN THAT NO ONE MODEL IS FAVORED IN THIS CASE...WILL
LEAN TOWARD DRY FORECAST FEATURED BY BOTH GFS/ECMWF FOR THU
ONWARD.

DETAILS...

WED INTO WED NIGHT...
INITIAL WARM FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE S AND E COASTS
DURING THE MORNING. THERE IS ENOUGH LLVL FRONTOGENESIS WITH AN
INCREASING LLJ TO 45 KT WITH THIS FEATURE...SO SUSPECT THAT SRN
AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL BE EXPERIENCING SOME MORNING SHRA
ACTIVITY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
/AROUND 100-200J/KG CAPE/ ABOVE THE SFC WARM FRONTAL INVERSION SO
AN ISOLD RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE SFC INVERSION...IT APPEARS THAT MIXING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY TAPPING THE 45 KT SLY LLJ. SO...IT APPEARS WIND
CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL.

DURING THE DAY WED INTO WED NIGHT...AS WARM FRONT MOVES
E...SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEGINNING TO BUILD IN
ALOFT WITH H5 TEMPS DIPPING TO -15C OR LOWER. THE DRY AIR WILL
ALSO PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY FOR PEEKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND WRN AREAS. THIS SETS UP THE
POSSIBILITY FOR DESTABILIZATION OF THE COLUMN AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
WARM FRONT MOVING E FROM NY STATE. NEAR SFC LAYER REMAINS
RELATIVELY MOIST...SFC BASED CAPE VALUES +1000J/KG ARE APPARENT
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME WEAK DIFFLUENT VENTING
ALOFT...AND SOME LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY W OF AFN-ORH-IJD LINE. HOWEVER...BEST
CHANCE FOR LIFT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT ITSELF...TO THE W AND
OVER NY...AWAY FROM THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE MORNING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALSO...WITH LITTLE SHEAR /LLJ IS ONLY AROUND 25 KT AT
BEST/ CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED AND WILL REQUIRE THE
LIFT THAT THE FRONT ITSELF PROVIDES FOR ADDITIONAL SUPPORT.
THEREFORE...WILL GENERALLY KEEP BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE SLIM
CAPE PROFILE...IS FOR DOWNPOURS IN ANY TSTMS THAT DO REACH WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FA. DESPITE THE FRONT BEING PROGGED TO CROSS THE
REGION WED NIGHT...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS THE
ADVECTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE COLUMN ALOFT WILL LIKELY ALLOW MOST
OF THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THU INTO FRI...
UPPER LVL CUTOFF OVER NRN QC PROVINCE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E.
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL USHER IN HIGH PRES AND A COOL
AIRMASS THU INT FRI. THE HIGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY
DRY...BUT ONE ISSUE TO WATCH WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES THU NIGHT INTO FRI. H85 TEMPS IN NRN MA AND
SRN NH DIP TO AROUND 0C BY 12Z FRI...WITH A GOOD INVERSION
APPARENT ON SOUNDINGS THANKS TO WEAK NEAR SFC FLOW. NORMALLY COLD
VALLEYS WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY LOW TO
MODERATE THAT FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT IT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...THE COOL AIRMASS WOULD ONLY
SUPPORT TEMPS NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
PERSISTENT WARM SE FLOW WILL BE FEEDING RIDGING OVER THE SE
STATES DURING THE PERIOD. THIS RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD OVER
THE E AND NE CONUS...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING MID LVL TEMPS AND
GENERALLY PERSISTENTLY DRY COLUMNS. THEREFORE...WILL TREND FCST
TOWARD A MOSTLY DRY SOLN. ATTM...BEST CHANCES FOR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WITH WET WX WOULD BE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BUT WITH
THE FINAL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION
MARK...ANY SHORTWAVE EARLIER COULD BE AN ISSUE. GIVEN THAT THE
RIDGE IS WELL AGREED UPON...CONFIDENCE FOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR 6 TO 8 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO PESSIMISTIC ON
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING.  MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MAY LOWER TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
VFR TO PERHAPS MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS.  ISOLATED THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
ODDS FAVOR VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CONDITION PERSISTING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS WORK INTO
THE REGION.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW HOURS OF
MARGINAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN RAIN SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR AND IFR/LIFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR. POSSIBLE SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER W OF IJD-
ORH-AFN LINE.

THU THROUGH SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
LONG FETCH SHOULD ALLOW SEAS OVER THE OPEN WATERS TO BUILD TO SCA
LEVELS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  INVERSION OVER THE WATERS SHOULD
KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT...BUT 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY HAVE HEADLINES JUST FOR THE OPEN WATERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE A FEW HOURS OF 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS
OCCUR NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT FUSED NEAR SHORE SCA.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED INTO WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE AND SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN OUTER
WATERS AND SRN WATERS. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

THU INTO SAT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS. AFTER 5 FT
SWELLS OVER THE OUTER WATERS DIMINISH THU...GENERALLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
EQUIPMENT...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KBOX 150748
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER FROM THU
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH TODAY/S FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THE
STRENGTH OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND HOW FAR EAST THE MAIN SHIELD OF
PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO ADVANCE.

SHOWERS REMAIN LOCKED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
AFTER REVIEWING THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...FEEL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN DRY INTO AT LEAST MID
AFTERNOON.  WHILE CLOUDY SKIES WILL DOMINATE IN THIS REGION...ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW PEEKS OF SUN ARE SEEN.  WE SHOULD
SEE SHOWERS FINALLY MAKE IT ONTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN.

ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE CURRENT SHOWERS
TEMPORARILY RETREATED EVEN FURTHER NORTH AND WEST FOR A TIME LATER
THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION BY MID AFTERNOON AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.  HIGH PWAT
VALUES MAY LEAD TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
HOWEVER...ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME LOCATIONS ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN BREAK 70 IF THEY ARE ABLE TO SEE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
COMBINES WITH DEEP MOISTURE/LIFT.  THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH...SO BRIEF LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY.  THIS MAY LEAD
TO BRIEF NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.  THERE ALSO IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NOTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST SO HAVE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES

DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH
EXTENED PERIOD WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

PATTERN FAVORS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
AND WILL NEED TO CONSIDER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR /ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MA AND SW NH/. GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEA BREEZES ALONG E AND S COASTS FRI AND SAT
BEFORE INCREASING S FLOW TAKES OVER SUN/MON.

MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF SE
USA COAST OVER WEEKEND BUT KEEP SYSTEM WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND. FOR
NOW WE INDICATED SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS SUN/MON ALONG S COAST
BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY OTHER EFFECTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO PESSIMISTIC ON
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING.  MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MAY LOWER TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
VFR TO PERHAPS MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS.  ISOLATED THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
ODDS FAVOR VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CONDITION PERSISTING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS WORK INTO
THE REGION.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW HOURS OF
MARGINAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN RAIN SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...IFR/LIFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR. POSSIBLE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
IN AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY NEAR COAST...OTHERWISE VFR. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
LONG FETCH SHOULD ALLOW SEAS OVER THE OPEN WATERS TO BUILD TO SCA
LEVELS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  INVERSION OVER THE WATERS SHOULD
KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT...BUT 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY HAVE HEADLINES JUST FOR THE OPEN WATERS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE A FEW HOURS OF 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS
OCCUR NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT FUSED NEAR SHORE SCA.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND...BUT 5 FT SEAS WILL PROBABLY LINGER OFFSHORE AT
LEAST INTO THU AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS FRI/SAT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SEA BREEZES EXPECTED ALONG E AND S COASTS
BOTH DAYS.

SUBTROPICAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF SE USA COAST THIS WEEKEND BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR OFFSHORE IT REMAINS. FOR NOW WE
THINK IT WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE S OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT COULD
GENERATE SWELLS INTO COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...FRANK/JWD
MARINE...FRANK/JWD
EQUIPMENT...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 150557
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS A PATHWAY FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
TO MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING A SOAKING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...RADAR INDICATING A GOOD SWATH OF MODERATE RAIN...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED ELEMENTS OF HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...LOOKING FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM BACK INTO PA...INDICATES A HOLE OF MUCH LIGHTER RAIN.
BASED ON THIS AND UPSTREAM OBS INDICATING GENERAL RAINFALL RATES
AROUND 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR...HAVE DECIDED TO CUT BACK PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ABOUT 30% ACROSS THE BOARD. EXCEPT
FOR A ENHANCED POCKET OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WORKING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER AT THE MOMENT...REMOVED MOST MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. ATTEMPT TO "LOCALIZE" THE HEAVIER RAIN IN THE
GRIDS...MAINLY THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM POUGHKEEPSIE TO ABOUT
ALBANY.

OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH SINCE WE FOR NOW...DID
NOT TINKER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL FROM 12Z TUESDAY ON. WE WILL HAVE TO
REEXAMINE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AND AMOUNTS BASED ON NEW COMPUTER
DATA AND TRENDS. THE 00Z NAM ACTUALLY SHIFT THE MAX QPF A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS AT THIS TIME...SUGGEST THE HEAVIER RAIN MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

HOWEVER...BASED ON RADAR RAINFALL TOTALS...INCREASED SOME AREAS OF
RAIN THUS FAR (UP TO 06Z) ACROSS MAINLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND NORTHERN MA WHERE THEY HAD CONVECTION AND SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAIN.

OTHERWISE...VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION OF THE HOURLY GRIDS FOR THIS
UPDATE.

EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY FALL A LITTLE MORE (IF AT ALL)...INTO THE 55-60
RANGE IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE AXIS OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
CATSKILLS THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS STILL FORECASTED IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGIONS. A SOAKING RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS WELL AS ALL VALLEY AREAS OUTSIDE OF
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT AGAIN...THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE IN THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THERE IS A TROPICAL CONNECTION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LOW
LEVEL JET SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY JET SEGMENTS SHOULD TRACK
THROUGH SOUTHERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE REGION.
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD BE QUITE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 AND
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LINGER...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY
DECREASING IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

ON WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...HELPING THE SUN TO WARM
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOME COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG AND THE STRONGEST
COLD ADVECTION COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY. SO...LOWS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THURSDAY LOOKS
TO BE SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HPC GUIDANCE.  THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WILL REORIENT ITSELF
FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY WEEK`S END...WITH
THE ONLY WEATHER THREAT BEING A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM
ABOUT LAKE HURON THROUGH SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO LABRADOR MONDAY
MORNING.  THE MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WILL
BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA IN NORTHEAST HAMILTON COUNTY...WHICH
COULD EXTEND SOUTHWARD AS FAR AS LAKE GEORGE AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS BEING AT THE COOL
END.  OVERALL...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL MODERATION.  LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM AROUND FREEZING TO THE MID 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT...TO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING  ROUND OG LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE REGION FROM THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD
THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING TUESDAY. MAINLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 14Z TO 15Z.
AT KPOU CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE MVFR RATHER THAN IFR. AFTER
THAT...THERE WILL A LULL IN THE PCPN WITH ONLY SCATTERED PCPN. VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN TO VFR...BUT CIGS WILL BE MVFR AT THE TAF SITES
FROM ABOUT 15Z TO ABOUT 00Z TO 01Z WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND WAVE OF
PCPN WILL MOVE IN AFTER THAT WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY IFR CIGS/MVFR
VSBYS AT ALL FOOR TAF SITES.

REGIONAL RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES DO NOT SHOW ANY WINDS STRONGER THAN
25 KTS ALOFT UNTIL ABOVE 10000 FEET...SO HAVE REMAOVE ANY MENTION OF
LLWS FROM THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KTS THROUGH
15Z...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 15 KTS AT KPSF. AFTER 15Z WINDS WILL
BE 5 TO 10 KS FROM THE SAME DIRECTION...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...
LATE TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR -RA/RA LIKELY.
WED...MAINLY VFR...ISOLD-SCT SHRA.
WED NGT-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS PATHWAY FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO
MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING A SOAKING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD EXCEED 60 PERCENT TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT WEDNESDAY. MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

MUCH DRIER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED OVER OUR REGION...SHOULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE FROM THE CATSKILLS THROUGH
THE BERKSHIRES AND THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHERE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL LOCALLY. AREAS TO THE NORTH...INCLUDING
THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
ALL VALLEY AREAS OUTSIDE OF HIGHER TERRAIN...SHOULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH...INCLUDING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT SHOULD SEE ABOUT THE SAME...UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

ASSUMING THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WORK OUT...THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
ONLY SEE ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. OTHER
REGIONS WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH MANY OF THEM POSSIBLY REACHING ACTION STAGE. SOME
RIVERS COULD APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATE TUESDAY OR INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND FLOOD WATCHES WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW IF NEWER DATA AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED.

NEVERTHELESS...PONDING OF WATER IS A GOOD BET...MAINLY IN AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE AS RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT RIVER BASIN QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

DRIER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 150549
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
149 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
HEAVIER RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT MAY SET OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

145 AM UPDATE...
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER PERSISTING ALONG THE
COAST PLAIN...INCLUDING THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR THROUGH
SUNRISE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S...ONLY DROPPING ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

INFLUENCE OF WAA AHEAD OF THE SERN CONUS DISTURBANCE LIFTING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY LOW-MID LVL RIDGING OF HIGH
PRES INTO ERN NEW ENGLAND. STALLED FRNTL BOUNDARY RETROGRADES INTO
UPSTATE NY. FEEL INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHRTWV
IMPULSES /AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW/ LIFTS THRU THE SWLY FLOW INTO THE
HUDSON RVR VLY RGN.

BEST AXIS OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH LOW-MID LVL
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING UPR LVL DIFLUENCE WILL BE GREATEST THRU
PA/UPSTATE NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THAT DOES NOT RULE OUT AN
INFLUENCE INTO CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA. WILL KEEP LIKELY
POPS W OF A N-S LINE THRU THE CT VLY...WITH CHC POPS OUT TOWARDS
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MA.

MAIN CONCERN IS THE VERY MOIST PROFILE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.25
INCHES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BEST AXIS OF
CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT HEAVY PRECIP WILL LIE. 12Z/14 NAM AND
ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE AXIS ACROSS ERN PA INTO
ALBANY...AND THINK THIS LIKELY THE CASE WITH WWD INFLUENCE OF LOW-
MID LVL RIDGING. STILL PRECIP AMNTS ENDING BY DUSK TUESDAY COULD
BE 1-1.5 INCHES FOR THE CT RVR VLY RGN. SUCH AN AMNT SPREAD OVER
24 HRS DOES NOT LEND TO CONCERN FOR A FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR FOR PSBL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS FOR THE CT VLY RGN ARE
ANTICIPATED.

INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED INTO THE MORNING...PSBL INCREASING INTO
THE TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON AMBIENT SUNSHINE. ANY INSTABILITY APPEARS
TO BE ELONGATED THRU THE ATMOS PROFILE AND VERY WEAK WITH VALUES
AROUND 200 J/KG. YET...MOST OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINS BELOW
-10C. AS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...CELLS HAVE BEEN LOW-TOPPED AND
HARDLY GETTING ABOVE -10C /THE BETTER THRESHOLD WHERE LIGHTNING IS
PSBL/. THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST UNTIL VERY LATE WHEN
THE BETTER CONVERGENT AXIS APPROACHES. LIKELY POPS.

MILD NGT WITH ONSHORE SLY FLOW. WILL NEED TO BE CONCERNED OF
ADVECTION OF MOIST AIR OVER COOLER WATERS. ONCE AMBIENT AIR DWPTS
EXCEED SEA-SFC TEMPS...THE PLAUSIBILITY OF FOG INCREASES. SHOULD
REMAIN CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE PD...SO MAX TEMPS MAY NOT DEVIATE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT FOR THE WRN FCST AREA.
LESSER CONFIDENCE TO THE E WHERE AMBIENT SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY AID
IN WARMING AND MAX TEMPS TUE GETTING INTO THE LOW 70S.


TUESDAY NIGHT...

AS ADDITIONAL SHRTWV DISTURBANCES ADVECT FROM THE SERN CONUS AND
INVIGORATE CONTINUED ACTIVITY ALONG A STALLED FRNT THRU THE NERN
CONUS...A STRONGER NRN STREAM TROF DIGS INTO THE ERN GRT LKS RGN.
WILL SEE THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-UPR LVL JET STREAK...WITH UPR-
LVL DIFLUENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE JET...PROMOTING A
STRONGER RESPONSE OF LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENCE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
AND LLJ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS SETUP WILL
EVOLVE...AND WHERE THE BEST LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENT AXIS WILL LIE.

NEVERTHELESS...FAIR AMNT OF THE FCST GUIDANCE PRESSES THE LOW-MID
LVL CONVERGENT AXIS THRU THE RGN DURING THE EVNG PD WITH THE NRN
STREAM KICKER...REMOVING THE BULK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRNT AND MID-UPR LYR WLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE RGN.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 250-500 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY FOR
THE EVNG PD WITH THE CONVERGENT AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SHEAR
WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED OUT OF THE SW AIDING IN THE
SUSTAINABILITY OF UPDRAFTS SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...BUT STILL HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE. EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY.
PRECIP AMNTS FOR THE 12 HR PD COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.5 INCHES
/PWATS 1.25-1.5 ADVERTISED/. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FCST.

HOW EFFECTIVELY THE AXIS MOVES EWD REMAINS ANOTHER MATTER...FEEL
NAM/ECMWF SOLNS ARE HANDLING THE STRONGER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES
THRU THE ATLANTIC WELL...SLOWING THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW THRU THE NERN
CONUS. THAT BEING SAID...AREAS THRU THE CT VLY BY WED MORN WILL
LIKELY HAVE SEEN AROUND 2 INCHES OF PRECIP. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS ACCORDINGLY. THE PAST MONTH WE HAVE SEEN
A SUCCESSIVE NATURE OF HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS DESPITE THE RAINFALL
DEFICIT AND DROUGHT ACROSS THE RGN...ALONG WITH LOW STREAM FLOWS. AM
NOT CONCERNED SO MUCH OVER THE MAIN STEM RIVERS...RATHER URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.


WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NRN STREAM KICKER WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRNT WILL SWING THRU THE NERN
CONUS. ALONG AND AHEAD OF WHICH...A DIFLUENT FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT
WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN OF THE DEPARTING MID-UPR LVL JET AXIS.
THE CONVERGENT AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LINGER
ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING PD...THEREAFTER IT REMAINS
A QUESTION OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WLY
FLOW AND USHERANCE OF DRIER AIR DURING THE LATE PD WED. LIFT APPEARS
PRESENT...AND SHOULD THE SUN BREAK OUT...THE MIX-OUT COULD RESULT IN
SCTD SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS.

YET WITHIN THE FCST GUIDANCE INSTABILITY INCREASES THRU THE MID-
ATLANTIC INTO UPSTATE NY WHERE CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BREAK
RESULTING IN A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRNT.
SUCH ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE WRN FCST AREA...BUT WITH THE NOCTURNAL
PASSAGE OF THE FRNT...PRECIP CHCS WILL LIKELY BE DIMINISHED DUE TO
REDUCED CONVECTIVE MIXING /NOT TO MENTION THAT THE BETTER FORCING
AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRNT APPEAR LOCALIZED THRU NY
INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW THRU THE ST LAWRENCE VLY/.

WILL GO WITH CHC POPS AND HINT AT ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE WRN
INTERIOR FOR WED. INTO WED NGT...POPS WILL PROBABLY DROP OFF AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE RGN WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRNT. COLD FRNT
SLIDES THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH W/NWLY FLOW TO THE REAR.

SHOULD BE MILD THRU THE DAY INTO THE 60S LIKELY LINGERING CLOUDS.
FEEL IT SHOULD REMAIN MILD THRU THE EVNG AS WELL WITH THE LATE FRNTL
PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES

DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH
EXTENED PERIOD WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

PATTERN FAVORS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
AND WILL NEED TO CONSIDER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR /ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MA AND SW NH/. GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEA BREEZES ALONG E AND S COASTS FRI AND SAT
BEFORE INCREASING S FLOW TAKES OVER SUN/MON.

MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF SE
USA COAST OVER WEEKEND BUT KEEP SYSTEM WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND. FOR
NOW WE INDICATED SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS SUN/MON ALONG S COAST
BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY OTHER EFFECTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO PESSIMISTIC ON
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING.  MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MAY LOWER TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
VFR TO PERHAPS MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN
REGARDS TO EXACT TIMING OF THIS PROCESS.  AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT AREAL COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INSERT INTO ANY TAFS AT THIS TIME.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
ODDS FAVOR VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CONDITION PERSISTING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS WORK INTO
THE REGION.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW HOURS OF
MARGINAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN RAIN SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...IFR/LIFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR. POSSIBLE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
IN AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY NEAR COAST...OTHERWISE VFR. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE
ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE WATERS LATE TUES THROUGH THURS. 5 FOOT
SEAS INTO THE S WATERS MIDDAY TUES INCREASING TO 6-8 FT BY MIDDAY
WED INTO WED NGT FOR THE S/SE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRNT SWEEPS ALL
THE ENERGY OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT THURS WITH W/NW FLOW.

SLY GUSTS 20-25 KTS WILL BE PSBL YET ISOLATED ACROSS THE WATERS
AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCES. ITS ALSO PSBL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS YET
BRIEF IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRNT AT OR EXCEEDING 25 KTS OUT OF THE
W/NW.

FOG WILL BE PSBL ACROSS THE S WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS AS TO THE EXTENT AND IMPACT OF FOG...BUT THE
ANTICIPATION IS FOR VSBYS TO FALL CONSIDERABLY INTO TUES MORN.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND...BUT 5 FT SEAS WILL PROBABLY LINGER OFFSHORE AT
LEAST INTO THU AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS FRI/SAT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SEA BREEZES EXPECTED ALONG E AND S COASTS
BOTH DAYS.

SUBTROPICAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF SE USA COAST THIS WEEKEND BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR OFFSHORE IT REMAINS. FOR NOW WE
THINK IT WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE S OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT COULD
GENERATE SWELLS INTO COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...FRANK/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
EQUIPMENT...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 150534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS PATHWAY FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO
MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING A SOAKING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...RADAR INDICATING A GOOD SWATH OF MODERATE RAIN...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED ELEMENTS OF HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...LOOKING FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM BACK INTO PA...INDICATES A HOLE OF MUCH LIGHTER RAIN.
BASED ON THIS AND UPSTREAM OBS INDICATING GENERAL RAINFALL RATES
AROUND 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR...HAVE DECIDED TO CUT BACK PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ABOUT 30% ACROSS THE BOARD. EXCEPT
FOR A ENHANCED POCKET OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WORKING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER AT THE MOMENT...REMOVED MOST MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. ATTEMPT TO "LOCALIZE" THE HEAVIER RAIN IN THE
GRIDS...MAINLY THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM POUGHKEEPSIE TO ABOUT
ALBANY.

OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH SINCE WE FOR NOW...DID
NOT TINKER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL FROM 12Z TUESDAY ON. WE WILL HAVE TO
REEXAMINE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AND AMOUNTS BASED ON NEW COMPUTER
DATA AND TRENDS. THE 00Z NAM ACTUALLY SHIFT THE MAX QPF A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS AT THIS TIME...SUGGEST THE HEAVIER RAIN MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

HOWEVER...BASED ON RADAR RAINFALL TOTALS...INCREASED SOME AREAS OF
RAIN THUS FAR (UP TO 06Z) ACROSS MAINLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND NORTHERN MA WHERE THEY HAD CONVECTION AND SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER
RAIN.

OTHERWISE...VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION OF THE HOURLY GRIDS FOR THIS
UPDATE.

EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY FALL A LITTLE MORE (IF AT ALL)...INTO THE 55-60
RANGE IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE AXIS OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
CATSKILLS THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS STILL FORECASTED IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGIONS. A SOAKING RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS WELL AS ALL VALLEY AREAS OUTSIDE OF
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT AGAIN...THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE IN THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THERE IS A TROPICAL CONNECTION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LOW
LEVEL JET SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY JET SEGMENTS SHOULD TRACK
THROUGH SOUTHERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE REGION.
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD BE QUITE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 AND
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LINGER...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY
DECREASING IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

ON WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...HELPING THE SUN TO WARM
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOME COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG AND THE STRONGEST
COLD ADVECTION COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY. SO...LOWS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THURSDAY LOOKS
TO BE SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HPC GUIDANCE.  THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WILL REORIENT ITSELF
FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY WEEK`S END...WITH
THE ONLY WEATHER THREAT BEING A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM
ABOUT LAKE HURON THROUGH SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO LABRADOR MONDAY
MORNING.  THE MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WILL
BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA IN NORTHEAST HAMILTON COUNTY...WHICH
COULD EXTEND SOUTHWARD AS FAR AS LAKE GEORGE AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS BEING AT THE COOL
END.  OVERALL...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL MODERATION.  LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM AROUND FREEZING TO THE MID 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT...TO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM THE PIEDMONT OR MID ATLANTIC REGION ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR
RANGE BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE TAF SITES...FOR BOTH VSBYS AND CIGS
AS A STEADY RAIN PERSISTS. A FEW PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME MVFR BY TUE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF IFR
VSBYS/CIGS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THIS SUITE OF
TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 7 KTS
OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 8-12 KT ON TUESDAY.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR APPEARS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...AS SFC WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 7 KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AND ABOVE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 30-35 KT.

.OUTLOOK...
TUE-TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR -RA/RA LIKELY.
WED...MAINLY VFR...ISOLD-SCT SHRA.
WED NGT-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS PATHWAY FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO
MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING A SOAKING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD EXCEED 60 PERCENT TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT WEDNESDAY. MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

MUCH DRIER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED OVER OUR REGION...SHOULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE FROM THE CATSKILLS THROUGH
THE BERKSHIRES AND THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHERE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL LOCALLY. AREAS TO THE NORTH...INCLUDING
THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
ALL VALLEY AREAS OUTSIDE OF HIGHER TERRAIN...SHOULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH...INCLUDING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT SHOULD SEE ABOUT THE SAME...UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

ASSUMING THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WORK OUT...THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
ONLY SEE ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. OTHER
REGIONS WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH MANY OF THEM POSSIBLY REACHING ACTION STAGE. SOME
RIVERS COULD APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATE TUESDAY OR INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND FLOOD WATCHES WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW IF NEWER DATA AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED.

NEVERTHELESS...PONDING OF WATER IS A GOOD BET...MAINLY IN AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE AS RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT RIVER BASIN QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

DRIER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 150231
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
HEAVIER RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT MAY SET OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1030 PM UPDATE...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE THIS EVENING.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR AND NOT AFFECT THE COASTAL PLAIN...INCLUDING THE BOSTON TO
PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.  THE REASON IS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORCING/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  IN FACT...WE MAY EVEN
SEE THE STEADIER SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES PUSH EVEN
FURTHER BACK INTO THE INTERIOR TOWARD DAYBREAK.

RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S.  A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

INFLUENCE OF WAA AHEAD OF THE SERN CONUS DISTURBANCE LIFTING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY LOW-MID LVL RIDGING OF HIGH
PRES INTO ERN NEW ENGLAND. STALLED FRNTL BOUNDARY RETROGRADES INTO
UPSTATE NY. FEEL INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHRTWV
IMPULSES /AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW/ LIFTS THRU THE SWLY FLOW INTO THE
HUDSON RVR VLY RGN.

BEST AXIS OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH LOW-MID LVL
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING UPR LVL DIFLUENCE WILL BE GREATEST THRU
PA/UPSTATE NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THAT DOES NOT RULE OUT AN
INFLUENCE INTO CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA. WILL KEEP LIKELY
POPS W OF A N-S LINE THRU THE CT VLY...WITH CHC POPS OUT TOWARDS
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MA.

MAIN CONCERN IS THE VERY MOIST PROFILE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.25
INCHES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BEST AXIS OF
CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT HEAVY PRECIP WILL LIE. 12Z/14 NAM AND
ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE AXIS ACROSS ERN PA INTO
ALBANY...AND THINK THIS LIKELY THE CASE WITH WWD INFLUENCE OF LOW-
MID LVL RIDGING. STILL PRECIP AMNTS ENDING BY DUSK TUESDAY COULD
BE 1-1.5 INCHES FOR THE CT RVR VLY RGN. SUCH AN AMNT SPREAD OVER
24 HRS DOES NOT LEND TO CONCERN FOR A FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR FOR PSBL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS FOR THE CT VLY RGN ARE
ANTICIPATED.

INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED INTO THE MORNING...PSBL INCREASING INTO
THE TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON AMBIENT SUNSHINE. ANY INSTABILITY APPEARS
TO BE ELONGATED THRU THE ATMOS PROFILE AND VERY WEAK WITH VALUES
AROUND 200 J/KG. YET...MOST OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINS BELOW
-10C. AS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...CELLS HAVE BEEN LOW-TOPPED AND
HARDLY GETTING ABOVE -10C /THE BETTER THRESHOLD WHERE LIGHTNING IS
PSBL/. THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST UNTIL VERY LATE WHEN
THE BETTER CONVERGENT AXIS APPROACHES. LIKELY POPS.

MILD NGT WITH ONSHORE SLY FLOW. WILL NEED TO BE CONCERNED OF
ADVECTION OF MOIST AIR OVER COOLER WATERS. ONCE AMBIENT AIR DWPTS
EXCEED SEA-SFC TEMPS...THE PLAUSIBILITY OF FOG INCREASES. SHOULD
REMAIN CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE PD...SO MAX TEMPS MAY NOT DEVIATE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT FOR THE WRN FCST AREA.
LESSER CONFIDENCE TO THE E WHERE AMBIENT SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY AID
IN WARMING AND MAX TEMPS TUE GETTING INTO THE LOW 70S.


TUESDAY NIGHT...

AS ADDITIONAL SHRTWV DISTURBANCES ADVECT FROM THE SERN CONUS AND
INVIGORATE CONTINUED ACTIVITY ALONG A STALLED FRNT THRU THE NERN
CONUS...A STRONGER NRN STREAM TROF DIGS INTO THE ERN GRT LKS RGN.
WILL SEE THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-UPR LVL JET STREAK...WITH UPR-
LVL DIFLUENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE JET...PROMOTING A
STRONGER RESPONSE OF LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENCE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
AND LLJ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS SETUP WILL
EVOLVE...AND WHERE THE BEST LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENT AXIS WILL LIE.

NEVERTHELESS...FAIR AMNT OF THE FCST GUIDANCE PRESSES THE LOW-MID
LVL CONVERGENT AXIS THRU THE RGN DURING THE EVNG PD WITH THE NRN
STREAM KICKER...REMOVING THE BULK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRNT AND MID-UPR LYR WLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE RGN.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 250-500 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY FOR
THE EVNG PD WITH THE CONVERGENT AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SHEAR
WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED OUT OF THE SW AIDING IN THE
SUSTAINABILITY OF UPDRAFTS SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...BUT STILL HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE. EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY.
PRECIP AMNTS FOR THE 12 HR PD COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.5 INCHES
/PWATS 1.25-1.5 ADVERTISED/. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FCST.

HOW EFFECTIVELY THE AXIS MOVES EWD REMAINS ANOTHER MATTER...FEEL
NAM/ECMWF SOLNS ARE HANDLING THE STRONGER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES
THRU THE ATLANTIC WELL...SLOWING THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW THRU THE NERN
CONUS. THAT BEING SAID...AREAS THRU THE CT VLY BY WED MORN WILL
LIKELY HAVE SEEN AROUND 2 INCHES OF PRECIP. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS ACCORDINGLY. THE PAST MONTH WE HAVE SEEN
A SUCCESSIVE NATURE OF HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS DESPITE THE RAINFALL
DEFICIT AND DROUGHT ACROSS THE RGN...ALONG WITH LOW STREAM FLOWS. AM
NOT CONCERNED SO MUCH OVER THE MAIN STEM RIVERS...RATHER URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.


WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NRN STREAM KICKER WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRNT WILL SWING THRU THE NERN
CONUS. ALONG AND AHEAD OF WHICH...A DIFLUENT FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT
WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN OF THE DEPARTING MID-UPR LVL JET AXIS.
THE CONVERGENT AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LINGER
ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING PD...THEREAFTER IT REMAINS
A QUESTION OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WLY
FLOW AND USHERANCE OF DRIER AIR DURING THE LATE PD WED. LIFT APPEARS
PRESENT...AND SHOULD THE SUN BREAK OUT...THE MIX-OUT COULD RESULT IN
SCTD SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS.

YET WITHIN THE FCST GUIDANCE INSTABILITY INCREASES THRU THE MID-
ATLANTIC INTO UPSTATE NY WHERE CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BREAK
RESULTING IN A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRNT.
SUCH ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE WRN FCST AREA...BUT WITH THE NOCTURNAL
PASSAGE OF THE FRNT...PRECIP CHCS WILL LIKELY BE DIMINISHED DUE TO
REDUCED CONVECTIVE MIXING /NOT TO MENTION THAT THE BETTER FORCING
AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRNT APPEAR LOCALIZED THRU NY
INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW THRU THE ST LAWRENCE VLY/.

WILL GO WITH CHC POPS AND HINT AT ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE WRN
INTERIOR FOR WED. INTO WED NGT...POPS WILL PROBABLY DROP OFF AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE RGN WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRNT. COLD FRNT
SLIDES THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH W/NWLY FLOW TO THE REAR.

SHOULD BE MILD THRU THE DAY INTO THE 60S LIKELY LINGERING CLOUDS.
FEEL IT SHOULD REMAIN MILD THRU THE EVNG AS WELL WITH THE LATE FRNTL
PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES

DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH
EXTENED PERIOD WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

PATTERN FAVORS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
AND WILL NEED TO CONSIDER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR /ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MA AND SW NH/. GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEA BREEZES ALONG E AND S COASTS FRI AND SAT
BEFORE INCREASING S FLOW TAKES OVER SUN/MON.

MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF SE
USA COAST OVER WEEKEND BUT KEEP SYSTEM WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND. FOR
NOW WE INDICATED SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS SUN/MON ALONG S COAST
BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY OTHER EFFECTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.  KEPT THINGS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE LATEST AMENDMENTS DID NOT DROP TAFS AS LOW AS
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE.  DO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER...BUT KEPT MOST
SITES AT MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...SOME IFR CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SHRA ON THE INCREASE INTO TUESDAY W TO E WITH CHCS FOR +RA AND
TSRA. TEMPO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AS RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
SLY FLOW PREVAILS.

KBOS TAF...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LOWER TO
MVFR THRESHOLDS TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE BUT HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY.
MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ON TUE.  FEEL MUCH OF THE FCST PD WILL
BE DRY WITH -SHRA ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND FOG WITH POSSIBLE TSTMS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

WED...IFR/LIFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR. POSSIBLE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
IN AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY NEAR COAST...OTHERWISE VFR. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE
ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE WATERS LATE TUES THROUGH THURS. 5 FOOT
SEAS INTO THE S WATERS MIDDAY TUES INCREASING TO 6-8 FT BY MIDDAY
WED INTO WED NGT FOR THE S/SE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRNT SWEEPS ALL
THE ENERGY OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT THURS WITH W/NW FLOW.

SLY GUSTS 20-25 KTS WILL BE PSBL YET ISOLATED ACROSS THE WATERS
AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCES. ITS ALSO PSBL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS YET
BRIEF IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRNT AT OR EXCEEDING 25 KTS OUT OF THE
W/NW.

FOG WILL BE PSBL ACROSS THE S WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS AS TO THE EXTENT AND IMPACT OF FOG...BUT THE
ANTICIPATION IS FOR VSBYS TO FALL CONSIDERABLY INTO TUES MORN.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND...BUT 5 FT SEAS WILL PROBABLY LINGER OFFSHORE AT
LEAST INTO THU AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS FRI/SAT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SEA BREEZES EXPECTED ALONG E AND S COASTS
BOTH DAYS.

SUBTROPICAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF SE USA COAST THIS WEEKEND BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR OFFSHORE IT REMAINS. FOR NOW WE
THINK IT WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE S OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT COULD
GENERATE SWELLS INTO COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY      FOR ANZ235-237-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL/JWD/GAF
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
EQUIPMENT...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KALY 150220
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS PATHWAY FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO
MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING A SOAKING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM EDT...RAIN HAS ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED THUS FAR. THE N/W EDGE OF THE RAIN
SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BACK FURTHER N AND W TOWARD AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO A STEADIER RAIN
ACROSS THIS REGION.

ELSEWHERE...PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THE RAIN IS A BIT MORE SHOWERY ACROSS NW CT
AND AREAS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THIS
SHOWERY NATURE SHOULD TRANSITION TO A STEADIER RAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WITH SOME POSSIBLE EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS EXPECTED
AS WELL.

EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 55-60 RANGE IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE AXIS OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
CATSKILLS THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS STILL FORECASTED IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGIONS. A SOAKING RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS WELL AS ALLVALLEY AREAS OUTSIDE OF
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT AGAIN...THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE IN THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THERE IS A TROPICAL CONNECTION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LOW
LEVEL JET SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY JET SEGMENTS SHOULD TRACK
THROUGH SOUTHERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE REGION.
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD BE QUITE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 AND
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LINGER...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY
DECREASING IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

ON WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...HELPING THE SUN TO WARM
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOME COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG AND THE STRONGEST
COLD ADVECTION COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY. SO...LOWS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THURSDAY LOOKS
TO BE SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HPC GUIDANCE.  THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WILL REORIENT ITSELF
FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY WEEK`S END...WITH
THE ONLY WEATHER THREAT BEING A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM
ABOUT LAKE HURON THROUGH SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO LABRADOR MONDAY
MORNING.  THE MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WILL
BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA IN NORTHEAST HAMILTON COUNTY...WHICH
COULD EXTEND SOUTHWARD AS FAR AS LAKE GEORGE AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS BEING AT THE COOL
END.  OVERALL...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL MODERATION.  LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM AROUND FREEZING TO THE MID 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT...TO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM THE PIEDMONT OR MID ATLANTIC REGION ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR
RANGE BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE TAF SITES...FOR BOTH VSBYS AND CIGS
AS A STEADY RAIN PERSISTS. A FEW PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME MVFR BY TUE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF IFR
VSBYS/CIGS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THIS SUITE OF
TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 7 KTS
OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 8-12 KT ON TUESDAY.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR APPEARS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...AS SFC WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 7 KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AND ABOVE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 30-35 KT.

.OUTLOOK...
TUE-TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR -RA/RA LIKELY.
WED...MAINLY VFR...ISOLD-SCT SHRA.
WED NGT-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS PATHWAY FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO
MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING A SOAKING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD EXCEED 60 PERCENT TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT WEDNESDAY. MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

MUCH DRIER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED OVER OUR REGION...SHOULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE FROM THE CATSKILLS THROUGH
THE BERKSHIRES AND THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHERE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL LOCALLY. AREAS TO THE NORTH...INCLUDING
THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
ALL VALLEY AREAS OUTSIDE OF HIGHER TERRAIN...SHOULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH...INCLUDING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT SHOULD SEE ABOUT THE SAME...UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

ASSUMING THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WORK OUT...THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
ONLY SEE ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. OTHER
REGIONS WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH MANY OF THEM POSSIBLY REACHING ACTION STAGE. SOME
RIVERS COULD APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATE TUESDAY OR INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND FLOOD WATCHES WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW IF NEWER DATA AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED.

NEVERTHELESS...PONDING OF WATER IS A GOOD BET...MAINLY IN AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE AS RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT RIVER BASIN QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

DRIER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 150111
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
910 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
HEAVIER RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT MAY SET OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

910 PM UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
MA AND INTO SOUTHERN NH THIS EVENING.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NOT AFFECT THE COASTAL
PLAIN...INCLUDING THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.  THE
REASON IS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THEW NEW ENGLAND COAST IS STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP THE FORCING/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.  IN FACT...WE MAY EVEN SEE THE STEADIER SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES PUSH EVEN FURTHER BACK INTO THE INTERIOR TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

INFLUENCE OF WAA AHEAD OF THE SERN CONUS DISTURBANCE LIFTING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY LOW-MID LVL RIDGING OF HIGH
PRES INTO ERN NEW ENGLAND. STALLED FRNTL BOUNDARY RETROGRADES INTO
UPSTATE NY. FEEL INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHRTWV
IMPULSES /AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW/ LIFTS THRU THE SWLY FLOW INTO THE
HUDSON RVR VLY RGN.

BEST AXIS OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH LOW-MID LVL
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING UPR LVL DIFLUENCE WILL BE GREATEST THRU
PA/UPSTATE NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THAT DOES NOT RULE OUT AN
INFLUENCE INTO CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA. WILL KEEP LIKELY
POPS W OF A N-S LINE THRU THE CT VLY...WITH CHC POPS OUT TOWARDS
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MA.

MAIN CONCERN IS THE VERY MOIST PROFILE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.25
INCHES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BEST AXIS OF
CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT HEAVY PRECIP WILL LIE. 12Z/14 NAM AND
ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE AXIS ACROSS ERN PA INTO
ALBANY...AND THINK THIS LIKELY THE CASE WITH WWD INFLUENCE OF LOW-
MID LVL RIDGING. STILL PRECIP AMNTS ENDING BY DUSK TUESDAY COULD
BE 1-1.5 INCHES FOR THE CT RVR VLY RGN. SUCH AN AMNT SPREAD OVER
24 HRS DOES NOT LEND TO CONCERN FOR A FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR FOR PSBL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS FOR THE CT VLY RGN ARE
ANTICIPATED.

INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED INTO THE MORNING...PSBL INCREASING INTO
THE TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON AMBIENT SUNSHINE. ANY INSTABILITY APPEARS
TO BE ELONGATED THRU THE ATMOS PROFILE AND VERY WEAK WITH VALUES
AROUND 200 J/KG. YET...MOST OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINS BELOW
-10C. AS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...CELLS HAVE BEEN LOW-TOPPED AND
HARDLY GETTING ABOVE -10C /THE BETTER THRESHOLD WHERE LIGHTNING IS
PSBL/. THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST UNTIL VERY LATE WHEN
THE BETTER CONVERGENT AXIS APPROACHES. LIKELY POPS.

MILD NGT WITH ONSHORE SLY FLOW. WILL NEED TO BE CONCERNED OF
ADVECTION OF MOIST AIR OVER COOLER WATERS. ONCE AMBIENT AIR DWPTS
EXCEED SEA-SFC TEMPS...THE PLAUSIBILITY OF FOG INCREASES. SHOULD
REMAIN CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE PD...SO MAX TEMPS MAY NOT DEVIATE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT FOR THE WRN FCST AREA.
LESSER CONFIDENCE TO THE E WHERE AMBIENT SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY AID
IN WARMING AND MAX TEMPS TUE GETTING INTO THE LOW 70S.


TUESDAY NIGHT...

AS ADDITIONAL SHRTWV DISTURBANCES ADVECT FROM THE SERN CONUS AND
INVIGORATE CONTINUED ACTIVITY ALONG A STALLED FRNT THRU THE NERN
CONUS...A STRONGER NRN STREAM TROF DIGS INTO THE ERN GRT LKS RGN.
WILL SEE THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-UPR LVL JET STREAK...WITH UPR-
LVL DIFLUENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE JET...PROMOTING A
STRONGER RESPONSE OF LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENCE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
AND LLJ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS SETUP WILL
EVOLVE...AND WHERE THE BEST LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENT AXIS WILL LIE.

NEVERTHELESS...FAIR AMNT OF THE FCST GUIDANCE PRESSES THE LOW-MID
LVL CONVERGENT AXIS THRU THE RGN DURING THE EVNG PD WITH THE NRN
STREAM KICKER...REMOVING THE BULK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRNT AND MID-UPR LYR WLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE RGN.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 250-500 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY FOR
THE EVNG PD WITH THE CONVERGENT AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SHEAR
WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED OUT OF THE SW AIDING IN THE
SUSTAINABILITY OF UPDRAFTS SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...BUT STILL HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE. EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY.
PRECIP AMNTS FOR THE 12 HR PD COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.5 INCHES
/PWATS 1.25-1.5 ADVERTISED/. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FCST.

HOW EFFECTIVELY THE AXIS MOVES EWD REMAINS ANOTHER MATTER...FEEL
NAM/ECMWF SOLNS ARE HANDLING THE STRONGER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES
THRU THE ATLANTIC WELL...SLOWING THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW THRU THE NERN
CONUS. THAT BEING SAID...AREAS THRU THE CT VLY BY WED MORN WILL
LIKELY HAVE SEEN AROUND 2 INCHES OF PRECIP. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS ACCORDINGLY. THE PAST MONTH WE HAVE SEEN
A SUCCESSIVE NATURE OF HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS DESPITE THE RAINFALL
DEFICIT AND DROUGHT ACROSS THE RGN...ALONG WITH LOW STREAM FLOWS. AM
NOT CONCERNED SO MUCH OVER THE MAIN STEM RIVERS...RATHER URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.


WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NRN STREAM KICKER WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRNT WILL SWING THRU THE NERN
CONUS. ALONG AND AHEAD OF WHICH...A DIFLUENT FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT
WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN OF THE DEPARTING MID-UPR LVL JET AXIS.
THE CONVERGENT AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LINGER
ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING PD...THEREAFTER IT REMAINS
A QUESTION OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WLY
FLOW AND USHERANCE OF DRIER AIR DURING THE LATE PD WED. LIFT APPEARS
PRESENT...AND SHOULD THE SUN BREAK OUT...THE MIX-OUT COULD RESULT IN
SCTD SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS.

YET WITHIN THE FCST GUIDANCE INSTABILITY INCREASES THRU THE MID-
ATLANTIC INTO UPSTATE NY WHERE CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BREAK
RESULTING IN A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRNT.
SUCH ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE WRN FCST AREA...BUT WITH THE NOCTURNAL
PASSAGE OF THE FRNT...PRECIP CHCS WILL LIKELY BE DIMINISHED DUE TO
REDUCED CONVECTIVE MIXING /NOT TO MENTION THAT THE BETTER FORCING
AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRNT APPEAR LOCALIZED THRU NY
INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW THRU THE ST LAWRENCE VLY/.

WILL GO WITH CHC POPS AND HINT AT ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE WRN
INTERIOR FOR WED. INTO WED NGT...POPS WILL PROBABLY DROP OFF AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE RGN WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRNT. COLD FRNT
SLIDES THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH W/NWLY FLOW TO THE REAR.

SHOULD BE MILD THRU THE DAY INTO THE 60S LIKELY LINGERING CLOUDS.
FEEL IT SHOULD REMAIN MILD THRU THE EVNG AS WELL WITH THE LATE FRNTL
PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES

DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH
EXTENED PERIOD WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

PATTERN FAVORS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
AND WILL NEED TO CONSIDER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR /ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MA AND SW NH/. GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEA BREEZES ALONG E AND S COASTS FRI AND SAT
BEFORE INCREASING S FLOW TAKES OVER SUN/MON.

MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF SE
USA COAST OVER WEEKEND BUT KEEP SYSTEM WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND. FOR
NOW WE INDICATED SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS SUN/MON ALONG S COAST
BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY OTHER EFFECTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. SHRA MAINLY WESTERN AND
CENTRAL TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH WET WX. VFR BECOMES MVFR
MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE EASTERN MA AND RI AND IN
NW MA. TONIGHT...CONCERNED ABOUT FOG ALONG THE S SHORE...CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH WITH MVFR/IFR. IFR/LIFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SHRA ON THE INCREASE INTO TUESDAY W TO E WITH CHCS FOR +RA AND
TSRA. TEMPO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AS RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
SLY FLOW PREVAILS.

KBOS TAF...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
VFR EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS PERHAPS DOWN TO 1000 FT
OVERNIGHT. IF EAST WINDS PERSIST...COULD BECOME IFR. FEEL MUCH OF
THE FCST PD WILL BE DRY WITH -SHRA LATE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND FOG WITH POSSIBLE TSTMS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

WED...IFR/LIFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR. POSSIBLE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
IN AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY NEAR COAST...OTHERWISE VFR. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE
ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE WATERS LATE TUES THROUGH THURS. 5 FOOT
SEAS INTO THE S WATERS MIDDAY TUES INCREASING TO 6-8 FT BY MIDDAY
WED INTO WED NGT FOR THE S/SE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRNT SWEEPS ALL
THE ENERGY OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT THURS WITH W/NW FLOW.

SLY GUSTS 20-25 KTS WILL BE PSBL YET ISOLATED ACROSS THE WATERS
AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCES. ITS ALSO PSBL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS YET
BRIEF IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRNT AT OR EXCEEDING 25 KTS OUT OF THE
W/NW.

FOG WILL BE PSBL ACROSS THE S WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS AS TO THE EXTENT AND IMPACT OF FOG...BUT THE
ANTICIPATION IS FOR VSBYS TO FALL CONSIDERABLY INTO TUES MORN.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND...BUT 5 FT SEAS WILL PROBABLY LINGER OFFSHORE AT
LEAST INTO THU AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS FRI/SAT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SEA BREEZES EXPECTED ALONG E AND S COASTS
BOTH DAYS.

SUBTROPICAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF SE USA COAST THIS WEEKEND BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR OFFSHORE IT REMAINS. FOR NOW WE
THINK IT WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE S OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT COULD
GENERATE SWELLS INTO COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY      FOR ANZ235-237-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD/GAF
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
EQUIPMENT...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KBOX 142351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
751 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
HEAVIER RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT MAY SET OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
745 PM UPDATE...

MAIN RAIN AREA CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER WESTERN CT/WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MA/AND SOUTHWEST NH. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THAT
REGARD OVERNIGHT. WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN MA
HAS LED TO WIND SHIFTING TO EAST ACROSS CAPE ANN AND THE BOSTON
AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT THERE. OTHERWISE
NO CHANGE TO POPS OR TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS ATTENDANT TO ISENTROPIC LIFT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESSING NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. STILL FEEL
THAT ENERGY WILL BE SHUNTED BACK W WITH THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LVL
RIDGING OF HIGH PRES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
ERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA DRY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH
CHC POPS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF RGN WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE WRN
FCST AREA ENCOMPASSING THE CT VLY RGN. IF ANY THUNDER IT SHOULD BE
ISOLATED...BUT WILL NOT PREVAIL IN FCST AS STORMS ARE REMAINING
LOW-TOPPED AND BELOW THE -10C THRESHOLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

INFLUENCE OF WAA AHEAD OF THE SERN CONUS DISTURBANCE LIFTING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY LOW-MID LVL RIDGING OF HIGH
PRES INTO ERN NEW ENGLAND. STALLED FRNTL BOUNDARY RETROGRADES INTO
UPSTATE NY. FEEL INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHRTWV
IMPULSES /AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW/ LIFTS THRU THE SWLY FLOW INTO THE
HUDSON RVR VLY RGN.

BEST AXIS OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH LOW-MID LVL
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING UPR LVL DIFLUENCE WILL BE GREATEST THRU
PA/UPSTATE NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THAT DOES NOT RULE OUT AN
INFLUENCE INTO CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA. WILL KEEP LIKELY
POPS W OF A N-S LINE THRU THE CT VLY...WITH CHC POPS OUT TOWARDS
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MA.

MAIN CONCERN IS THE VERY MOIST PROFILE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.25
INCHES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BEST AXIS OF
CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT HEAVY PRECIP WILL LIE. 12Z/14 NAM AND
ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE AXIS ACROSS ERN PA INTO
ALBANY...AND THINK THIS LIKELY THE CASE WITH WWD INFLUENCE OF LOW-
MID LVL RIDGING. STILL PRECIP AMNTS ENDING BY DUSK TUESDAY COULD
BE 1-1.5 INCHES FOR THE CT RVR VLY RGN. SUCH AN AMNT SPREAD OVER
24 HRS DOES NOT LEND TO CONCERN FOR A FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR FOR PSBL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS FOR THE CT VLY RGN ARE
ANTICIPATED.

INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED INTO THE MORNING...PSBL INCREASING INTO
THE TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON AMBIENT SUNSHINE. ANY INSTABILITY APPEARS
TO BE ELONGATED THRU THE ATMOS PROFILE AND VERY WEAK WITH VALUES
AROUND 200 J/KG. YET...MOST OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINS BELOW
-10C. AS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...CELLS HAVE BEEN LOW-TOPPED AND
HARDLY GETTING ABOVE -10C /THE BETTER THRESHOLD WHERE LIGHTNING IS
PSBL/. THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST UNTIL VERY LATE WHEN
THE BETTER CONVERGENT AXIS APPROACHES. LIKELY POPS.

MILD NGT WITH ONSHORE SLY FLOW. WILL NEED TO BE CONCERNED OF
ADVECTION OF MOIST AIR OVER COOLER WATERS. ONCE AMBIENT AIR DWPTS
EXCEED SEA-SFC TEMPS...THE PLAUSIBILITY OF FOG INCREASES. SHOULD
REMAIN CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE PD...SO MAX TEMPS MAY NOT DEVIATE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT FOR THE WRN FCST AREA.
LESSER CONFIDENCE TO THE E WHERE AMBIENT SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY AID
IN WARMING AND MAX TEMPS TUE GETTING INTO THE LOW 70S.


TUESDAY NIGHT...

AS ADDITIONAL SHRTWV DISTURBANCES ADVECT FROM THE SERN CONUS AND
INVIGORATE CONTINUED ACTIVITY ALONG A STALLED FRNT THRU THE NERN
CONUS...A STRONGER NRN STREAM TROF DIGS INTO THE ERN GRT LKS RGN.
WILL SEE THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-UPR LVL JET STREAK...WITH UPR-
LVL DIFLUENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE JET...PROMOTING A
STRONGER RESPONSE OF LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENCE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
AND LLJ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS SETUP WILL
EVOLVE...AND WHERE THE BEST LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENT AXIS WILL LIE.

NEVERTHELESS...FAIR AMNT OF THE FCST GUIDANCE PRESSES THE LOW-MID
LVL CONVERGENT AXIS THRU THE RGN DURING THE EVNG PD WITH THE NRN
STREAM KICKER...REMOVING THE BULK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRNT AND MID-UPR LYR WLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE RGN.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 250-500 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY FOR
THE EVNG PD WITH THE CONVERGENT AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SHEAR
WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED OUT OF THE SW AIDING IN THE
SUSTAINABILITY OF UPDRAFTS SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...BUT STILL HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE. EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY.
PRECIP AMNTS FOR THE 12 HR PD COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.5 INCHES
/PWATS 1.25-1.5 ADVERTISED/. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FCST.

HOW EFFECTIVELY THE AXIS MOVES EWD REMAINS ANOTHER MATTER...FEEL
NAM/ECMWF SOLNS ARE HANDLING THE STRONGER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES
THRU THE ATLANTIC WELL...SLOWING THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW THRU THE NERN
CONUS. THAT BEING SAID...AREAS THRU THE CT VLY BY WED MORN WILL
LIKELY HAVE SEEN AROUND 2 INCHES OF PRECIP. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS ACCORDINGLY. THE PAST MONTH WE HAVE SEEN
A SUCCESSIVE NATURE OF HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS DESPITE THE RAINFALL
DEFICIT AND DROUGHT ACROSS THE RGN...ALONG WITH LOW STREAM FLOWS. AM
NOT CONCERNED SO MUCH OVER THE MAIN STEM RIVERS...RATHER URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.


WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NRN STREAM KICKER WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRNT WILL SWING THRU THE NERN
CONUS. ALONG AND AHEAD OF WHICH...A DIFLUENT FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT
WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN OF THE DEPARTING MID-UPR LVL JET AXIS.
THE CONVERGENT AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LINGER
ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING PD...THEREAFTER IT REMAINS
A QUESTION OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WLY
FLOW AND USHERANCE OF DRIER AIR DURING THE LATE PD WED. LIFT APPEARS
PRESENT...AND SHOULD THE SUN BREAK OUT...THE MIX-OUT COULD RESULT IN
SCTD SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS.

YET WITHIN THE FCST GUIDANCE INSTABILITY INCREASES THRU THE MID-
ATLANTIC INTO UPSTATE NY WHERE CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BREAK
RESULTING IN A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRNT.
SUCH ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE WRN FCST AREA...BUT WITH THE NOCTURNAL
PASSAGE OF THE FRNT...PRECIP CHCS WILL LIKELY BE DIMINISHED DUE TO
REDUCED CONVECTIVE MIXING /NOT TO MENTION THAT THE BETTER FORCING
AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRNT APPEAR LOCALIZED THRU NY
INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW THRU THE ST LAWRENCE VLY/.

WILL GO WITH CHC POPS AND HINT AT ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE WRN
INTERIOR FOR WED. INTO WED NGT...POPS WILL PROBABLY DROP OFF AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE RGN WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRNT. COLD FRNT
SLIDES THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH W/NWLY FLOW TO THE REAR.

SHOULD BE MILD THRU THE DAY INTO THE 60S LIKELY LINGERING CLOUDS.
FEEL IT SHOULD REMAIN MILD THRU THE EVNG AS WELL WITH THE LATE FRNTL
PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES

DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH
EXTENED PERIOD WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

PATTERN FAVORS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
AND WILL NEED TO CONSIDER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR /ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MA AND SW NH/. GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEA BREEZES ALONG E AND S COASTS FRI AND SAT
BEFORE INCREASING S FLOW TAKES OVER SUN/MON.

MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF SE
USA COAST OVER WEEKEND BUT KEEP SYSTEM WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND. FOR
NOW WE INDICATED SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS SUN/MON ALONG S COAST
BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY OTHER EFFECTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. SHRA MAINLY WESTERN AND
CENTRAL TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH WET WX. VFR BECOMES MVFR
MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE EASTERN MA AND RI AND IN
NW MA. TONIGHT...CONCERNED ABOUT FOG ALONG THE S SHORE...CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH WITH MVFR/IFR. IFR/LIFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SHRA ON THE INCREASE INTO TUESDAY W TO E WITH CHCS FOR +RA AND
TSRA. TEMPO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AS RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
SLY FLOW PREVAILS.

KBOS TAF...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
VFR EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS PERHAPS DOWN TO 1000 FT
OVERNIGHT. IF EAST WINDS PERSIST...COULD BECOME IFR. FEEL MUCH OF
THE FCST PD WILL BE DRY WITH -SHRA LATE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND FOG WITH POSSIBLE TSTMS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

WED...IFR/LIFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR. POSSIBLE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
IN AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY NEAR COAST...OTHERWISE VFR. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE
ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE WATERS LATE TUES THROUGH THURS. 5 FOOT
SEAS INTO THE S WATERS MIDDAY TUES INCREASING TO 6-8 FT BY MIDDAY
WED INTO WED NGT FOR THE S/SE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRNT SWEEPS ALL
THE ENERGY OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT THURS WITH W/NW FLOW.

SLY GUSTS 20-25 KTS WILL BE PSBL YET ISOLATED ACROSS THE WATERS
AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCES. ITS ALSO PSBL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS YET
BRIEF IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRNT AT OR EXCEEDING 25 KTS OUT OF THE
W/NW.

FOG WILL BE PSBL ACROSS THE S WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS AS TO THE EXTENT AND IMPACT OF FOG...BUT THE
ANTICIPATION IS FOR VSBYS TO FALL CONSIDERABLY INTO TUES MORN.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND...BUT 5 FT SEAS WILL PROBABLY LINGER OFFSHORE AT
LEAST INTO THU AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS FRI/SAT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SEA BREEZES EXPECTED ALONG E AND S COASTS
BOTH DAYS.

SUBTROPICAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF SE USA COAST THIS WEEKEND BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR OFFSHORE IT REMAINS. FOR NOW WE
THINK IT WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE S OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT COULD
GENERATE SWELLS INTO COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/GAF
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD/GAF
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
EQUIPMENT...WFOB BOX

000
FXUS61 KALY 142350
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
750 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS PATHWAY FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO
MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING A SOAKING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT
GRIDDED DATABASE. IT APPEARS THAT WEAK INSTABILITY FROM EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN RELEASED AND DIMINISHED WITH THE ONSET OF
STEADIER RAIN...THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH A FEW PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...ESP AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE ALSO LOWERED MINS BY 2-4 DEGREES...AS CURRENT TEMPS HAVE
ALREADY APPROACHED SOME MINS. STILL EXPECT MOST MINS TO FALL INTO
THE 50S.

WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG LATER
TONIGHT...AS THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS DECREASE TO NEAR ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE AXIS OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
CATSKILLS THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS STILL FORECASTED IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGIONS. A SOAKING RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS WELL AS ALLVALLEY AREAS OUTSIDE OF
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT AGAIN...THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE IN THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THERE IS A TROPICAL CONNECTION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LOW
LEVEL JET SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY JET SEGMENTS SHOULD TRACK
THROUGH SOUTHERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE REGION.
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD BE QUITE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 AND
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LINGER...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY
DECREASING IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

ON WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...HELPING THE SUN TO WARM
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOME COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG AND THE STRONGEST
COLD ADVECTION COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY. SO...LOWS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THURSDAY LOOKS
TO BE SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HPC GUIDANCE.  THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WILL REORIENT ITSELF
FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY WEEK`S END...WITH
THE ONLY WEATHER THREAT BEING A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM
ABOUT LAKE HURON THROUGH SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO LABRADOR MONDAY
MORNING.  THE MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WILL
BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA IN NORTHEAST HAMILTON COUNTY...WHICH
COULD EXTEND SOUTHWARD AS FAR AS LAKE GEORGE AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS BEING AT THE COOL
END.  OVERALL...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL MODERATION.  LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM AROUND FREEZING TO THE MID 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT...TO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM THE PIEDMONT OR MID ATLANTIC REGION ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR
RANGE BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE TAF SITES...FOR BOTH VSBYS AND CIGS
AS A STEADY RAIN PERSISTS. A FEW PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME MVFR BY TUE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF IFR
VSBYS/CIGS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED
AT THIS TIME...SO NO MENTION HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THIS SUITE OF
TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 7 KTS
OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 8-12 KT ON TUESDAY.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR APPEARS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...AS SFC WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 7 KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AND ABOVE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 30-35 KT.

.OUTLOOK...
TUE-TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR -RA/RA LIKELY.
WED...MAINLY VFR...ISOLD-SCT SHRA.
WED NGT-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS PATHWAY FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO
MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING A SOAKING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD EXCEED 60 PERCENT TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT WEDNESDAY. MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

MUCH DRIER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED OVER OUR REGION...SHOULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE FROM THE CATSKILLS THROUGH
THE BERKSHIRES AND THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHERE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL LOCALLY. AREAS TO THE NORTH...INCLUDING
THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
ALL VALLEY AREAS OUTSIDE OF HIGHER TERRAIN...SHOULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH...INCLUDING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT SHOULD SEE ABOUT THE SAME...UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

ASSUMING THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WORK OUT...THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
ONLY SEE ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. OTHER
REGIONS WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH MANY OF THEM POSSIBLY REACHING ACTION STAGE. SOME
RIVERS COULD APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATE TUESDAY OR INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND FLOOD WATCHES WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW IF NEWER DATA AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED.

NEVERTHELESS...PONDING OF WATER IS A GOOD BET...MAINLY IN AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE AS RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT RIVER BASIN QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

DRIER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 142009 CCA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
407 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS PATHWAY FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO
MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING A SOAKING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RAIN IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME CONVECTIVE
CELLS ARE EMBEDDED AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SO...LOWS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 WITH RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE THE RULE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE AXIS OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
CATSKILLS THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS STILL FORECASTED IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGIONS. A SOAKING RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS WELL AS ALLVALLEY AREAS OUTSIDE OF
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT AGAIN...THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE IN THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THERE IS A TROPICAL CONNECTION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LOW
LEVEL JET SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY JET SEGMENTS SHOULD TRACK
THROUGH SOUTHERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE REGION.
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD BE QUITE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 AND
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LINGER...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY
DECREASING IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

ON WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...HELPING THE SUN TO WARM
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOME COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG AND THE STRONGEST
COLD ADVECTION COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY. SO...LOWS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THURSDAY LOOKS
TO BE SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HPC GUIDANCE.  THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WILL REORIENT ITSELF
FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY WEEK`S END...WITH
THE ONLY WEATHER THREAT BEING A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM
ABOUT LAKE HURON THROUGH SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO LABRADOR MONDAY
MORNING.  THE MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WILL
BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA IN NORTHEAST HAMILTON COUNTY...WHICH
COULD EXTEND SOUTHWARD AS FAR AS LAKE GEORGE AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS BEING AT THE COOL
END.  OVERALL...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL MODERATION.  LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM AROUND FREEZING TO THE MID 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT...TO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE PIEDMONT OR
MID ATLANTIC REGION ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON SOME LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A
BATCH OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE. LAPSES TO MVFR VSBYS OR
CIGS WILL BE COMMON IN THE SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN. NO THUNDER WAS
ADDED AT THIS TIME...SINCE THE PROBABILITY LOOKS SMALL AT 20 PERCENT
OR LESS. THESE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD S/SW TO THE N/NE BTWN 18Z-22Z.
THERE MAYBE A BRIEF BREAK FOR A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER...AS STRATIFORM
RAIN SHIELD FILLS IN AHEAD OF THE WAVE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST.

EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS SHORTLY BEFORE
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL IN THE MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO 12Z/TUE. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
LEVELS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS NOONTIME. LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH 2 KFT AGL WINDS AROUND
30-40 KTS WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS OF 5 KTS OR LESS AT THE SFC.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 7 KTS PRIOR TO
00Z/TUE. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN BE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 7 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...
TUE-PM TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR -RA/RA LIKELY.
WED...MAINLY VFR...ISOLD-SCT SHRA.
WED NGT-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS PATHWAY FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO
MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING A SOAKING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD EXCEED 60 PERCENT TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT WEDNESDAY. MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

MUCH DRIER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED OVER OUR REGION...SHOULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE FROM THE CATSKILLS THROUGH
THE BERKSHIRES AND THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHERE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL LOCALLY. AREAS TO THE NORTH...INCLUDING
THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
ALL VALLEY AREAS OUTSIDE OF HIGHER TERRAIN...SHOULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH...INCLUDING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT SHOULD SEE ABOUT THE SAME...UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

ASSUMING THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WORK OUT...THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
ONLY SEE ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. OTHER
REGIONS WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH MANY OF THEM POSSIBLY REACHING ACTION STAGE. SOME
RIVERS COULD APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATE TUESDAY OR INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND FLOOD WATCHES WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW IF NEWER DATA AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED.

NEVERTHELESS...PONDING OF WATER IS A GOOD BET...MAINLY IN AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE AS RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT RIVER BASIN QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

DRIER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 142001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
401 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS PATHWAY FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO
MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING A SOAKING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RAIN IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME CONVECTIVE
CELLS ARE EMBEDDED AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SO...LOWS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 WITH RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE THE RULE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT THE AXIS OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
CATSKILLS THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS STILL FORECASTED IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGIONS. A SOAKING RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AS WELL AS ALLVALLEY AREAS OUTSIDE OF
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT AGAIN...THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE IN THE
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THERE IS A TROPICAL CONNECTION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LOW
LEVEL JET SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY JET SEGMENTS SHOULD TRACK
THROUGH SOUTHERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE REGION.
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD BE QUITE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 AND
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LINGER...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY
DECREASING IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

ON WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...HELPING THE SUN TO WARM
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOME COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG AND THE STRONGEST
COLD ADVECTION COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY. SO...LOWS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THURSDAY LOOKS
TO BE SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HPC GUIDANCE.  THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WILL REORIENT ITSELF
FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY WEEK`S END...WITH
THE ONLY WEATHER THREAT BEING A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM
ABOUT LAKE HURON THROUGH SOUTHEAST QUEBEC TO LABRADOR MONDAY
MORNING.  THE MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WILL
BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA IN NORTHEAST HAMILTON COUNTY...WHICH
COULD EXTEND SOUTHWARD AS FAR AS LAKE GEORGE AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS BEING AT THE COOL
END.  OVERALL...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL MODERATION.  LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM AROUND FREEZING TO THE MID 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT...TO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE PIEDMONT OR
MID ATLANTIC REGION ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON SOME LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A
BATCH OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE. LAPSES TO MVFR VSBYS OR
CIGS WILL BE COMMON IN THE SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN. NO THUNDER WAS
ADDED AT THIS TIME...SINCE THE PROBABILITY LOOKS SMALL AT 20 PERCENT
OR LESS. THESE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD S/SW TO THE N/NE BTWN 18Z-22Z.
THERE MAYBE A BRIEF BREAK FOR A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER...AS STRATIFORM
RAIN SHIELD FILLS IN AHEAD OF THE WAVE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST.

EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS SHORTLY BEFORE
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL IN THE MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO 12Z/TUE. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
LEVELS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS NOONTIME. LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH 2 KFT AGL WINDS AROUND
30-40 KTS WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS OF 5 KTS OR LESS AT THE SFC.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 7 KTS PRIOR TO
00Z/TUE. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN BE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 7 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...
TUE-PM TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR -RA/RA LIKELY.
WED...MAINLY VFR...ISOLD-SCT SHRA.
WED NGT-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS PATHWAY FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO
MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING A SOAKING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD EXCEED 60 PERCENT TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT WEDNESDAY. MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY.

MUCH DRIER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED OVER OUR REGION...SHOULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE FROM THE CATSKILLS THROUGH
THE BERKSHIRES AND THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHERE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL LOCALLY. AREAS TO THE NORTH...INCLUDING
THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
ALL VALLEY AREAS OUTSIDE OF HIGHER TERRAIN...SHOULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH...INCLUDING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT SHOULD SEE ABOUT THE SAME...UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

ASSUMING THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WORK OUT...THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
ONLY SEE ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. OTHER
REGIONS WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH MANY OF THEM POSSIBLY REACHING ACTION STAGE. SOME
RIVERS COULD APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATE TUESDAY OR INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND FLOOD WATCHES WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW IF NEWER DATA AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED.

NEVERTHELESS...PONDING OF WATER IS A GOOD BET...MAINLY IN AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE AS RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT RIVER BASIN QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

DRIER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 141950
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

A STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
HEAVIER RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT MAY SET OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE NWD INTO
SRN NH...AS WELL AS THOSE SHOWERS ACROSS W MA. MEANWHILE A
BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS ATTENDANT TO ISENTROPIC LIFT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESSING NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. STILL FEEL
THAT ENERGY WILL BE SHUNTED BACK W WITH THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LVL
RIDGING OF HIGH PRES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
ERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA DRY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH
CHC POPS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF RGN WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE WRN
FCST AREA ENCOMPASSING THE CT VLY RGN. IF ANY THUNDER IT SHOULD BE
ISOLATED...BUT WILL NOT PREVAIL IN FCST AS STORMS ARE REMAINING
LOW-TOPPED AND BELOW THE -10C THRESHOLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

INFLUENCE OF WAA AHEAD OF THE SERN CONUS DISTURBANCE LIFTING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY LOW-MID LVL RIDGING OF HIGH
PRES INTO ERN NEW ENGLAND. STALLED FRNTL BOUNDARY RETROGRADES INTO
UPSTATE NY. FEEL INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHRTWV
IMPULSES /AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW/ LIFTS THRU THE SWLY FLOW INTO THE
HUDSON RVR VLY RGN.

BEST AXIS OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH LOW-MID LVL
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING UPR LVL DIFLUENCE WILL BE GREATEST THRU
PA/UPSTATE NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THAT DOES NOT RULE OUT AN
INFLUENCE INTO CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA. WILL KEEP LIKELY
POPS W OF A N-S LINE THRU THE CT VLY...WITH CHC POPS OUT TOWARDS
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MA.

MAIN CONCERN IS THE VERY MOIST PROFILE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.25
INCHES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BEST AXIS OF
CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT HEAVY PRECIP WILL LIE. 12Z/14 NAM AND
ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE AXIS ACROSS ERN PA INTO
ALBANY...AND THINK THIS LIKELY THE CASE WITH WWD INFLUENCE OF LOW-
MID LVL RIDGING. STILL PRECIP AMNTS ENDING BY DUSK TUESDAY COULD
BE 1-1.5 INCHES FOR THE CT RVR VLY RGN. SUCH AN AMNT SPREAD OVER
24 HRS DOES NOT LEND TO CONCERN FOR A FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR FOR PSBL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS FOR THE CT VLY RGN ARE
ANTICIPATED.

INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED INTO THE MORNING...PSBL INCREASING INTO
THE TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON AMBIENT SUNSHINE. ANY INSTABILITY APPEARS
TO BE ELONGATED THRU THE ATMOS PROFILE AND VERY WEAK WITH VALUES
AROUND 200 J/KG. YET...MOST OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINS BELOW
-10C. AS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...CELLS HAVE BEEN LOW-TOPPED AND
HARDLY GETTING ABOVE -10C /THE BETTER THRESHOLD WHERE LIGHTNING IS
PSBL/. THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST UNTIL VERY LATE WHEN
THE BETTER CONVERGENT AXIS APPROACHES. LIKELY POPS.

MILD NGT WITH ONSHORE SLY FLOW. WILL NEED TO BE CONCERNED OF
ADVECTION OF MOIST AIR OVER COOLER WATERS. ONCE AMBIENT AIR DWPTS
EXCEED SEA-SFC TEMPS...THE PLAUSIBILITY OF FOG INCREASES. SHOULD
REMAIN CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE PD...SO MAX TEMPS MAY NOT DEVIATE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT FOR THE WRN FCST AREA.
LESSER CONFIDENCE TO THE E WHERE AMBIENT SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY AID
IN WARMING AND MAX TEMPS TUE GETTING INTO THE LOW 70S.


TUESDAY NIGHT...

AS ADDITIONAL SHRTWV DISTURBANCES ADVECT FROM THE SERN CONUS AND
INVIGORATE CONTINUED ACTIVITY ALONG A STALLED FRNT THRU THE NERN
CONUS...A STRONGER NRN STREAM TROF DIGS INTO THE ERN GRT LKS RGN.
WILL SEE THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-UPR LVL JET STREAK...WITH UPR-
LVL DIFLUENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE JET...PROMOTING A
STRONGER RESPONSE OF LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENCE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
AND LLJ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS SETUP WILL
EVOLVE...AND WHERE THE BEST LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENT AXIS WILL LIE.

NEVERTHELESS...FAIR AMNT OF THE FCST GUIDANCE PRESSES THE LOW-MID
LVL CONVERGENT AXIS THRU THE RGN DURING THE EVNG PD WITH THE NRN
STREAM KICKER...REMOVING THE BULK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRNT AND MID-UPR LYR WLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE RGN.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 250-500 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY FOR
THE EVNG PD WITH THE CONVERGENT AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SHEAR
WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED OUT OF THE SW AIDING IN THE
SUSTAINABILITY OF UPDRAFTS SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...BUT STILL HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE. EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY.
PRECIP AMNTS FOR THE 12 HR PD COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.5 INCHES
/PWATS 1.25-1.5 ADVERTISED/. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FCST.

HOW EFFECTIVELY THE AXIS MOVES EWD REMAINS ANOTHER MATTER...FEEL
NAM/ECMWF SOLNS ARE HANDLING THE STRONGER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES
THRU THE ATLANTIC WELL...SLOWING THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW THRU THE NERN
CONUS. THAT BEING SAID...AREAS THRU THE CT VLY BY WED MORN WILL
LIKELY HAVE SEEN AROUND 2 INCHES OF PRECIP. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS ACCORDINGLY. THE PAST MONTH WE HAVE SEEN
A SUCCESSIVE NATURE OF HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS DESPITE THE RAINFALL
DEFICIT AND DROUGHT ACROSS THE RGN...ALONG WITH LOW STREAM FLOWS. AM
NOT CONCERNED SO MUCH OVER THE MAIN STEM RIVERS...RATHER URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.


WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NRN STREAM KICKER WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRNT WILL SWING THRU THE NERN
CONUS. ALONG AND AHEAD OF WHICH...A DIFLUENT FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT
WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN OF THE DEPARTING MID-UPR LVL JET AXIS.
THE CONVERGENT AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LINGER
ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING PD...THEREAFTER IT REMAINS
A QUESTION OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WLY
FLOW AND USHERANCE OF DRIER AIR DURING THE LATE PD WED. LIFT APPEARS
PRESENT...AND SHOULD THE SUN BREAK OUT...THE MIX-OUT COULD RESULT IN
SCTD SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS.

YET WITHIN THE FCST GUIDANCE INSTABILITY INCREASES THRU THE MID-
ATLANTIC INTO UPSTATE NY WHERE CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BREAK
RESULTING IN A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRNT.
SUCH ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE WRN FCST AREA...BUT WITH THE NOCTURNAL
PASSAGE OF THE FRNT...PRECIP CHCS WILL LIKELY BE DIMINISHED DUE TO
REDUCED CONVECTIVE MIXING /NOT TO MENTION THAT THE BETTER FORCING
AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRNT APPEAR LOCALIZED THRU NY
INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW THRU THE ST LAWRENCE VLY/.

WILL GO WITH CHC POPS AND HINT AT ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE WRN
INTERIOR FOR WED. INTO WED NGT...POPS WILL PROBABLY DROP OFF AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE RGN WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRNT. COLD FRNT
SLIDES THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH W/NWLY FLOW TO THE REAR.

SHOULD BE MILD THRU THE DAY INTO THE 60S LIKELY LINGERING CLOUDS.
FEEL IT SHOULD REMAIN MILD THRU THE EVNG AS WELL WITH THE LATE FRNTL
PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES

DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH
EXTENED PERIOD WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

PATTERN FAVORS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
AND WILL NEED TO CONSIDER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR /ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MA AND SW NH/. GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEA BREEZES ALONG E AND S COASTS FRI AND SAT
BEFORE INCREASING S FLOW TAKES OVER SUN/MON.

MODELS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF SE
USA COAST OVER WEEKEND BUT KEEP SYSTEM WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND. FOR
NOW WE INDICATED SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS SUN/MON ALONG S COAST
BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY OTHER EFFECTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. SHRA/TSRA WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE NWD THRU TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH WET WX.
OTHERWISE VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD SHOWERS...BETTER OF WHICH WILL
BE ACROSS WRN TERMINALS. TONIGHT...CONCERNED ABOUT FOG ALONG THE S
SHORE...CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH MVFR/IFR. IFR/LIFR NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. LOW CIGS THRU THE FCST AREA. -SHRA ON THE INCREASE
INTO TUESDAY W TO E WITH CHCS FOR +RA AND TSRA. TEMPO IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED AS RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SLY FLOW PREVAILS.

KBOS TAF...
WEAK WINDS IN PROXIMITY TO A STALLED FRNTL BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA-BREEZE. ANTICIPATE DISSIPATION INTO
EVNG WITH PREVAILING SLY FLOW. VFR FALLING TO MVFR INTO THE EVNG.
WENT CONSERVATIVE...MAY PSBLY GET LOWER. UNCERTAINTY. FEEL MUCH OF
THE FCST PD WILL BE DRY WITH -SHRA LATE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND FOG WITH POSSIBLE TSTMS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

WED...IFR/LIFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR. POSSIBLE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
IN AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY NEAR COAST...OTHERWISE VFR. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE
ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE WATERS LATE TUES THROUGH THURS. 5 FOOT
SEAS INTO THE S WATERS MIDDAY TUES INCREASING TO 6-8 FT BY MIDDAY
WED INTO WED NGT FOR THE S/SE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRNT SWEEPS ALL
THE ENERGY OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT THURS WITH W/NW FLOW.

SLY GUSTS 20-25 KTS WILL BE PSBL YET ISOLATED ACROSS THE WATERS
AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCES. ITS ALSO PSBL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS YET
BRIEF IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRNT AT OR EXCEEDING 25 KTS OUT OF THE
W/NW.

FOG WILL BE PSBL ACROSS THE S WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS AS TO THE EXTENT AND IMPACT OF FOG...BUT THE
ANTICIPATION IS FOR VSBYS TO FALL CONSIDERABLY INTO TUES MORN.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND...BUT 5 FT SEAS WILL PROBABLY LINGER OFFSHORE AT
LEAST INTO THU AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS FRI/SAT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SEA BREEZES EXPECTED ALONG E AND S COASTS
BOTH DAYS.

SUBTROPICAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF SE USA COAST THIS WEEKEND BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR OFFSHORE IT REMAINS. FOR NOW WE
THINK IT WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE S OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT COULD
GENERATE SWELLS INTO COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
EQUIPMENT...WFO BOX

000
FXUS61 KBOX 141941
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

A STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
HEAVIER RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT MAY SET OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE NWD INTO
SRN NH...AS WELL AS THOSE SHOWERS ACROSS W MA. MEANWHILE A
BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS ATTENDANT TO ISENTROPIC LIFT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESSING NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. STILL FEEL
THAT ENERGY WILL BE SHUNTED BACK W WITH THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LVL
RIDGING OF HIGH PRES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
ERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA DRY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH
CHC POPS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF RGN WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE WRN
FCST AREA ENCOMPASSING THE CT VLY RGN. IF ANY THUNDER IT SHOULD BE
ISOLATED...BUT WILL NOT PREVAIL IN FCST AS STORMS ARE REMAINING
LOW-TOPPED AND BELOW THE -10C THRESHOLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

INFLUENCE OF WAA AHEAD OF THE SERN CONUS DISTURBANCE LIFTING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY LOW-MID LVL RIDGING OF HIGH
PRES INTO ERN NEW ENGLAND. STALLED FRNTL BOUNDARY RETROGRADES INTO
UPSTATE NY. FEEL INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHRTWV
IMPULSES /AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW/ LIFTS THRU THE SWLY FLOW INTO THE
HUDSON RVR VLY RGN.

BEST AXIS OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH LOW-MID LVL
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING UPR LVL DIFLUENCE WILL BE GREATEST THRU
PA/UPSTATE NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THAT DOES NOT RULE OUT AN
INFLUENCE INTO CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA. WILL KEEP LIKELY
POPS W OF A N-S LINE THRU THE CT VLY...WITH CHC POPS OUT TOWARDS
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MA.

MAIN CONCERN IS THE VERY MOIST PROFILE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.25
INCHES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BEST AXIS OF
CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT HEAVY PRECIP WILL LIE. 12Z/14 NAM AND
ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE AXIS ACROSS ERN PA INTO
ALBANY...AND THINK THIS LIKELY THE CASE WITH WWD INFLUENCE OF LOW-
MID LVL RIDGING. STILL PRECIP AMNTS ENDING BY DUSK TUESDAY COULD
BE 1-1.5 INCHES FOR THE CT RVR VLY RGN. SUCH AN AMNT SPREAD OVER
24 HRS DOES NOT LEND TO CONCERN FOR A FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR FOR PSBL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS FOR THE CT VLY RGN ARE
ANTICIPATED.

INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED INTO THE MORNING...PSBL INCREASING INTO
THE TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON AMBIENT SUNSHINE. ANY INSTABILITY APPEARS
TO BE ELONGATED THRU THE ATMOS PROFILE AND VERY WEAK WITH VALUES
AROUND 200 J/KG. YET...MOST OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINS BELOW
-10C. AS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...CELLS HAVE BEEN LOW-TOPPED AND
HARDLY GETTING ABOVE -10C /THE BETTER THRESHOLD WHERE LIGHTNING IS
PSBL/. THUS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST UNTIL VERY LATE WHEN
THE BETTER CONVERGENT AXIS APPROACHES. LIKELY POPS.

MILD NGT WITH ONSHORE SLY FLOW. WILL NEED TO BE CONCERNED OF
ADVECTION OF MOIST AIR OVER COOLER WATERS. ONCE AMBIENT AIR DWPTS
EXCEED SEA-SFC TEMPS...THE PLAUSIBILITY OF FOG INCREASES. SHOULD
REMAIN CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE PD...SO MAX TEMPS MAY NOT DEVIATE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT FOR THE WRN FCST AREA.
LESSER CONFIDENCE TO THE E WHERE AMBIENT SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY AID
IN WARMING AND MAX TEMPS TUE GETTING INTO THE LOW 70S.


TUESDAY NIGHT...

AS ADDITIONAL SHRTWV DISTURBANCES ADVECT FROM THE SERN CONUS AND
INVIGORATE CONTINUED ACTIVITY ALONG A STALLED FRNT THRU THE NERN
CONUS...A STRONGER NRN STREAM TROF DIGS INTO THE ERN GRT LKS RGN.
WILL SEE THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-UPR LVL JET STREAK...WITH UPR-
LVL DIFLUENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE JET...PROMOTING A
STRONGER RESPONSE OF LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENCE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
AND LLJ. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS SETUP WILL
EVOLVE...AND WHERE THE BEST LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENT AXIS WILL LIE.

NEVERTHELESS...FAIR AMNT OF THE FCST GUIDANCE PRESSES THE LOW-MID
LVL CONVERGENT AXIS THRU THE RGN DURING THE EVNG PD WITH THE NRN
STREAM KICKER...REMOVING THE BULK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRNT AND MID-UPR LYR WLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE RGN.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 250-500 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY FOR
THE EVNG PD WITH THE CONVERGENT AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SHEAR
WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED OUT OF THE SW AIDING IN THE
SUSTAINABILITY OF UPDRAFTS SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...BUT STILL HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEVERE. EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY.
PRECIP AMNTS FOR THE 12 HR PD COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.5 INCHES
/PWATS 1.25-1.5 ADVERTISED/. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FCST.

HOW EFFECTIVELY THE AXIS MOVES EWD REMAINS ANOTHER MATTER...FEEL
NAM/ECMWF SOLNS ARE HANDLING THE STRONGER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES
THRU THE ATLANTIC WELL...SLOWING THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW THRU THE NERN
CONUS. THAT BEING SAID...AREAS THRU THE CT VLY BY WED MORN WILL
LIKELY HAVE SEEN AROUND 2 INCHES OF PRECIP. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS ACCORDINGLY. THE PAST MONTH WE HAVE SEEN
A SUCCESSIVE NATURE OF HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS DESPITE THE RAINFALL
DEFICIT AND DROUGHT ACROSS THE RGN...ALONG WITH LOW STREAM FLOWS. AM
NOT CONCERNED SO MUCH OVER THE MAIN STEM RIVERS...RATHER URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.


WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NRN STREAM KICKER WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRNT WILL SWING THRU THE NERN
CONUS. ALONG AND AHEAD OF WHICH...A DIFLUENT FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT
WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN OF THE DEPARTING MID-UPR LVL JET AXIS.
THE CONVERGENT AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LINGER
ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING PD...THEREAFTER IT REMAINS
A QUESTION OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WLY
FLOW AND USHERANCE OF DRIER AIR DURING THE LATE PD WED. LIFT APPEARS
PRESENT...AND SHOULD THE SUN BREAK OUT...THE MIX-OUT COULD RESULT IN
SCTD SHOWERS AND PSBL THUNDERSTORMS.

YET WITHIN THE FCST GUIDANCE INSTABILITY INCREASES THRU THE MID-
ATLANTIC INTO UPSTATE NY WHERE CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BREAK
RESULTING IN A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRNT.
SUCH ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE WRN FCST AREA...BUT WITH THE NOCTURNAL
PASSAGE OF THE FRNT...PRECIP CHCS WILL LIKELY BE DIMINISHED DUE TO
REDUCED CONVECTIVE MIXING /NOT TO MENTION THAT THE BETTER FORCING
AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF THE FRNT APPEAR LOCALIZED THRU NY
INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW THRU THE ST LAWRENCE VLY/.

WILL GO WITH CHC POPS AND HINT AT ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE WRN
INTERIOR FOR WED. INTO WED NGT...POPS WILL PROBABLY DROP OFF AS
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE RGN WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRNT. COLD FRNT
SLIDES THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH W/NWLY FLOW TO THE REAR.

SHOULD BE MILD THRU THE DAY INTO THE 60S LIKELY LINGERING CLOUDS.
FEEL IT SHOULD REMAIN MILD THRU THE EVNG AS WELL WITH THE LATE FRNTL
PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING
* DRY WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MOST OF THE FOCUS IS ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME
FRAME WITH IMPACT OF SOUTHERN ENERGY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRES AND UPPER NW FLOW SHOULD
KEEP AREA DRY AT LEAST THRU THE WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SUBTROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SE USA COAST
THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...LOOKS DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LARGE
SURFACE HIGH PRES DOMINATES ALONG WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT THRU
THE PERIOD. OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THU NIGHT MAY BRING THREAT
OF FROST TO PORTIONS OF NW MA AND SW NH. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. SHRA/TSRA WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE NWD THRU TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH WET WX.
OTHERWISE VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD SHOWERS...BETTER OF WHICH WILL
BE ACROSS WRN TERMINALS. TONIGHT...CONCERNED ABOUT FOG ALONG THE S
SHORE...CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH MVFR/IFR. IFR/LIFR NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. LOW CIGS THRU THE FCST AREA. -SHRA ON THE INCREASE
INTO TUESDAY W TO E WITH CHCS FOR +RA AND TSRA. TEMPO IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED AS RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SLY FLOW PREVAILS.

KBOS TAF...
WEAK WINDS IN PROXIMITY TO A STALLED FRNTL BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA-BREEZE. ANTICIPATE DISSIPATION INTO
EVNG WITH PREVAILING SLY FLOW. VFR FALLING TO MVFR INTO THE EVNG.
WENT CONSERVATIVE...MAY PSBLY GET LOWER. UNCERTAINTY. FEEL MUCH OF
THE FCST PD WILL BE DRY WITH -SHRA LATE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND FOG WITH POSSIBLE TSTMS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

WED...IFR/LIFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR. POSSIBLE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
IN AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY NEAR COAST...OTHERWISE VFR. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE
ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE WATERS LATE TUES THROUGH THURS. 5 FOOT
SEAS INTO THE S WATERS MIDDAY TUES INCREASING TO 6-8 FT BY MIDDAY
WED INTO WED NGT FOR THE S/SE OUTER WATERS. COLD FRNT SWEEPS ALL
THE ENERGY OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT THURS WITH W/NW FLOW.

SLY GUSTS 20-25 KTS WILL BE PSBL YET ISOLATED ACROSS THE WATERS
AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCES. ITS ALSO PSBL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS YET
BRIEF IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRNT AT OR EXCEEDING 25 KTS OUT OF THE
W/NW.

FOG WILL BE PSBL ACROSS THE S WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS AS TO THE EXTENT AND IMPACT OF FOG...BUT THE
ANTICIPATION IS FOR VSBYS TO FALL CONSIDERABLY INTO TUES MORN.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND...BUT 5 FT SEAS WILL PROBABLY LINGER OFFSHORE AT
LEAST INTO THU AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS FRI/SAT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SEA BREEZES EXPECTED ALONG E AND S COASTS
BOTH DAYS.

SUBTROPICAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF SE USA COAST THIS WEEKEND BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR OFFSHORE IT REMAINS. FOR NOW WE
THINK IT WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE S OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT COULD
GENERATE SWELLS INTO COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
EQUIPMENT...WFO BOX

000
FXUS61 KBOX 141901
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
301 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
HEAVIER RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT MAY SET OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 PM UPDATE...

MONITORING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE FOCUS OF ENERGY SEEMS ATTENDANT TO A WEAK LOW-MID
LVL CONVERGENT AXIS COLLOCATED WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
EVALUATING THE 12Z OKX SOUNDING...FEEL THIS ENERGY IS ASSOC WITH
THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM H8-H6. CEILINGS ASSOC WITH THIS
WEATHER RANGE FROM 5-7 KFT /HIGH BASED/. ANTICIPATE THE ENERGY TO
CONTINUE NWD WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. NOTHING SEVERE...ONLY
HEAVY RAINS WITH INTERMITTENT REDUCED VSBYS ACCORDINGLY.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST RGN...RIDGE AXIS THRU THE
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE SYS. FEEL THE
CONVERGENT AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED THRU NY/PA
AS SHRTWV ENERGY EJECTS NEWD FROM THE SERN CONUS. THUS...ISOLATED
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED FOR THE RGN...THE BETTER OF WHICH WILL BE
ACROSS THE WRN FCST AREA CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENT
AXIS. CHC POPS WITH SLY FLOW. TEMPS AND DWPTS REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTH AS DO WINDS UP THROUGH 850 MB. THE ZONE
OF STRONGEST WINDS AT 925 MB AND 850 MB CONTINUES TO AIM FOR
OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH A SLIGHT TURN OVER SOUTHERN NH. WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AND SOUTHERN
NH...WITH DECREASING POPS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.

SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN
TONIGHT...MOSTLY UPPER 50S BUT WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWER
60S. THE SST/S IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS ARE IN THE MID 50S. THIS
COMBINATION WOULD SUPPORT FOG FORMATION OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THAT COULD EXPAND OVER THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...
CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS EAST A LITTLE
DURING THE DAY. THIS IN TURN INCREASES THE LIFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SHIFTS THE FOCUS EAST TO COVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.50 INCHES...SUPPORTING
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. WE WILL BRING POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL AND EXPAND
THEM EAST TO COVER MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...LIKELY POPS TO
THE CAPE COD CANAL.

TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MOS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER WITH MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THE GFS A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. ALL MODELS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS AND SHOW PASSAGE OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OF ABOUT 40 KT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT FORCING WITH A
TONGUE OF PWATS TO 1.5 IN SHOULD SET STAGE FOR A FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN
EVENT CONTINUING FROM WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THINK STORM TOTALS
SHOULD RANGE GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES...MID CT RIVER VALLEY...NORTHERN RI...WORCESTER HILLS AND
THE MONADNOCKS HELPED BY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC LIFT. FLOOD ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ENOUGH RAIN TO PUT STREAMS OVER THEIR BANKS. DO NOT EXPECT
MOST OF THE WIND MOMENTUM ALOFT TO MIX THRU THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS DO NOT AT THIS
TIME FORESEE A NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIR
STEADY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
OVERNIGHT. POPS REACH CATEGORICAL EVERYWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDER TUESDAY NIGHT
BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES AND INSTABILITY INDICES. SHOWALTER DROPS
TO NEAR 0 AND K INDICES GENERALLY 33 TO 35 DURING THE NIGHT. EVEN
THE TOTAL TOTALS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

WEDNESDAY...THIS DAY COULD PROVE A BIT TRICKY. STEADY RAINFALL
SHOULD LIFT NE AND OFF THE COAST DURING THE MORNING ALONG WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET. A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE SHARPLY RESOLVED
BY THE MODELS...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE INTERIOR
AND THEN MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE EVENING. NOTE
ALSO THAT THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL
SHOW SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS. TIMING OF BOTH THE EXIT OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IN THE MORNING AND APPROACH OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY MAY BE CRITICAL AS TO POTENTIAL
FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS OF
35 TO 40+ KT INCREASE TOWARD EVENING IN THE WEST AND MAY TRANSLATE
TO A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM. POSSIBLE
THAT ACTIVITY FORMS IN NEW YORK STATE WED AFTERNOON AND REACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOO LATE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OPTIMUM DIURNAL HEATING.

HI TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND AT LEAST IN PART ON DEGREE OF
CLOUDINESS. THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING DURING MID
AND LATE MORNING BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN WITH CU/TCU FROM
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW THINKING WILL REACH
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE EVENING OVER THE SE
PORTION OF AREA. THEN CLEARING SHOULD PROGRESS FAIRLY QUICKLY NW TO
SE WITH DROPPING DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING
* DRY WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MOST OF THE FOCUS IS ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME
FRAME WITH IMPACT OF SOUTHERN ENERGY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRES AND UPPER NW FLOW SHOULD
KEEP AREA DRY AT LEAST THRU THE WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SUBTROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SE USA COAST
THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SYSTEM.

DETAILS...



THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...LOOKS DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LARGE
SURFACE HIGH PRES DOMINATES ALONG WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT THRU
THE PERIOD. OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THU NIGHT MAY BRING THREAT
OF FROST TO PORTIONS OF NW MA AND SW NH. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. SHRA/TSRA WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE NWD THRU TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH WET WX.
OTHERWISE VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD SHOWERS...BETTER OF WHICH WILL
BE ACROSS WRN TERMINALS. TONIGHT...CONCERNED ABOUT FOG ALONG THE S
SHORE...CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH MVFR/IFR. IFR/LIFR NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. LOW CIGS THRU THE FCST AREA. -SHRA ON THE INCREASE
INTO TUESDAY W TO E WITH CHCS FOR +RA AND TSRA. TEMPO IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED AS RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SLY FLOW PREVAILS.

KBOS TAF...
WEAK WINDS IN PROXIMITY TO A STALLED FRNTL BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA-BREEZE. ANTICIPATE DISSIPATION INTO
EVNG WITH PREVAILING SLY FLOW. VFR FALLING TO MVFR INTO THE EVNG.
WENT CONSERVATIVE...MAY PSBLY GET LOWER. UNCERTAINTY. FEEL MUCH OF
THE FCST PD WILL BE DRY WITH -SHRA LATE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND FOG WITH POSSIBLE TSTMS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
WED...IFR/LIFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR. POSSIBLE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
IN AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THU...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY NEAR COAST...OTHERWISE VFR. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
FRI AND SAT...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILD TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY....BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. OBSERVED SEAS WERE 3-4 FEET OVERNIGHT RATHER
THAN 5 FEET.  THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF RI SOUND AND BLOCK ISLAND
SOUND WILL BRIEFLY REACH 5 FEET THIS MORNING. BUT THE MAIN
INCREASE ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL NOT COME UNTIL TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD
BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED ON RI SOUND AND THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD. BUILDING SEAS WILL NOT REACH 5 FEET THERE
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND AND RI SOUNDS...WHERE SEAS WILL
FLIRT WITH 5 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING MORE HUMIDITY TO THE AIR TONIGHT...ENOUGH
TO GENERATE AREAS OF FOG DURING THE NIGHT. THIS FOG WILL LOWER THE
VISIBILITY...POSSIBLY TO BELOW 1 MILE. CONFIDENCE ON THE FOG IS
MODERATE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

GENERALLY MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU THE PERIOD.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SURFACE TUE NIGHT BUT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT STILL
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BRING SEAS OVER 5 FEET FOR COASTAL
WATERS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH. AREAS OF FOG WILL HAMPER VISIBILITY.
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING TSTMS
LATE WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALIZED SHIFTING AND GUSTING WINDS.

WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND...BUT 5 FT SEAS WILL PROBABLY LINGER OFFSHORE AT
LEAST INTO THU AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS FRI/SAT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SEA BREEZES EXPECTED ALONG E AND S COASTS
BOTH DAYS.

SUBTROPICAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF SE USA COAST THIS WEEKEND BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR OFFSHORE IT REMAINS. FOR NOW WE
THINK IT WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE S OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT COULD
GENERATE SWELLS INTO COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/JWD
EQUIPMENT...STAFF

000
FXUS61 KBOX 141802
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
202 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

A STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
HEAVIER RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT MAY SET OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

MONITORING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE FOCUS OF ENERGY SEEMS ATTENDANT TO A WEAK LOW-MID
LVL CONVERGENT AXIS COLLOCATED WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
EVALUATING THE 12Z OKX SOUNDING...FEEL THIS ENERGY IS ASSOC WITH
THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM H8-H6. CEILINGS ASSOC WITH THIS
WEATHER RANGE FROM 5-7 KFT /HIGH BASED/. ANTICIPATE THE ENERGY TO
CONTINUE NWD WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. NOTHING SEVERE...ONLY
HEAVY RAINS WITH INTERMITTENT REDUCED VSBYS ACCORDINGLY.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST RGN...RIDGE AXIS THRU THE
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE SYS. FEEL THE
CONVERGENT AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED THRU NY/PA
AS SHRTWV ENERGY EJECTS NEWD FROM THE SERN CONUS. THUS...ISOLATED
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED FOR THE RGN...THE BETTER OF WHICH WILL BE
ACROSS THE WRN FCST AREA CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENT
AXIS. CHC POPS WITH SLY FLOW. TEMPS AND DWPTS REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTH AS DO WINDS UP THROUGH 850 MB. THE ZONE
OF STRONGEST WINDS AT 925 MB AND 850 MB CONTINUES TO AIM FOR
OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH A SLIGHT TURN OVER SOUTHERN NH. WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AND SOUTHERN
NH...WITH DECREASING POPS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.

SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN
TONIGHT...MOSTLY UPPER 50S BUT WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWER
60S. THE SST/S IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS ARE IN THE MID 50S. THIS
COMBINATION WOULD SUPPORT FOG FORMATION OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THAT COULD EXPAND OVER THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...
CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS EAST A LITTLE
DURING THE DAY. THIS IN TURN INCREASES THE LIFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SHIFTS THE FOCUS EAST TO COVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.50 INCHES...SUPPORTING
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. WE WILL BRING POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL AND EXPAND
THEM EAST TO COVER MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...LIKELY POPS TO
THE CAPE COD CANAL.

TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING
* DRY WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MOST OF THE FOCUS IS ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME
FRAME WITH IMPACT OF SOUTHERN ENERGY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRES AND UPPER NW FLOW SHOULD
KEEP AREA DRY AT LEAST THRU THE WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SUBTROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SE USA COAST
THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER WITH MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THE GFS A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. ALL MODELS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS AND SHOW PASSAGE OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OF ABOUT 40 KT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT FORCING WITH A
TONGUE OF PWATS TO 1.5 IN SHOULD SET STAGE FOR A FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN
EVENT CONTINUING FROM WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THINK STORM TOTALS
SHOULD RANGE GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES...MID CT RIVER VALLEY...NORTHERN RI...WORCESTER HILLS AND
THE MONADNOCKS HELPED BY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC LIFT. FLOOD ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ENOUGH RAIN TO PUT STREAMS OVER THEIR BANKS. DO NOT EXPECT
MOST OF THE WIND MOMENTUM ALOFT TO MIX THRU THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS DO NOT AT THIS
TIME FORESEE A NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIR
STEADY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
OVERNIGHT. POPS REACH CATEGORICAL EVERYWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDER TUESDAY NIGHT
BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES AND INSTABILITY INDICES. SHOWALTER DROPS
TO NEAR 0 AND K INDICES GENERALLY 33 TO 35 DURING THE NIGHT. EVEN
THE TOTAL TOTALS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

WEDNESDAY...THIS DAY COULD PROVE A BIT TRICKY. STEADY RAINFALL
SHOULD LIFT NE AND OFF THE COAST DURING THE MORNING ALONG WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET. A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE SHARPLY RESOLVED
BY THE MODELS...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE INTERIOR
AND THEN MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE EVENING. NOTE
ALSO THAT THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL
SHOW SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS. TIMING OF BOTH THE EXIT OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IN THE MORNING AND APPROACH OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY MAY BE CRITICAL AS TO POTENTIAL
FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS OF
35 TO 40+ KT INCREASE TOWARD EVENING IN THE WEST AND MAY TRANSLATE
TO A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM. POSSIBLE
THAT ACTIVITY FORMS IN NEW YORK STATE WED AFTERNOON AND REACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOO LATE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OPTIMUM DIURNAL HEATING.

HI TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND AT LEAST IN PART ON DEGREE OF
CLOUDINESS. THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING DURING MID
AND LATE MORNING BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN WITH CU/TCU FROM
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW THINKING WILL REACH
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE EVENING OVER THE SE
PORTION OF AREA. THEN CLEARING SHOULD PROGRESS FAIRLY QUICKLY NW TO
SE WITH DROPPING DEWPOINTS.

THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...LOOKS DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LARGE
SURFACE HIGH PRES DOMINATES ALONG WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT THRU
THE PERIOD. OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THU NIGHT MAY BRING THREAT
OF FROST TO PORTIONS OF NW MA AND SW NH. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

OVERVIEW...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. SHRA/TSRA WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE NWD THRU TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH WET WX.
OTHERWISE VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD SHOWERS...BETTER OF WHICH WILL
BE ACROSS WRN TERMINALS. TONIGHT...CONCERNED ABOUT FOG ALONG THE S
SHORE...CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH MVFR/IFR. IFR/LIFR NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. LOW CIGS THRU THE FCST AREA. -SHRA ON THE INCREASE
INTO TUESDAY W TO E WITH CHCS FOR +RA AND TSRA. TEMPO IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED AS RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SLY FLOW PREVAILS.

KBOS TAF...
WEAK WINDS IN PROXIMITY TO A STALLED FRNTL BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA-BREEZE. ANTICIPATE DISSIPATION INTO
EVNG WITH PREVAILING SLY FLOW. VFR FALLING TO MVFR INTO THE EVNG.
WENT CONSERVATIVE...MAY PSBLY GET LOWER. UNCERTAINTY. FEEL MUCH OF
THE FCST PD WILL BE DRY WITH -SHRA LATE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RAIN THROUGHOUT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
FALTERING TOWARDS MORNING TO LIFR FOR VARIOUS TERMINALS WITH LOW
CIGS AND FOG. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. TSRA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS POOR ALONG THE E BUT IMPROVING W.
IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING IMPROVING VFR. HEAVY RAIN AXIS GRADUALLY
MOVES OFFSHORE. REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHRA AND TSRA INTO AFTN PD
PSBL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRNT PUSHES THRU TERMINALS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WINDS BACKING OUT OF THE W/NW. ALL TERMINALS BECOMING
VFR.

THU THRU FRI...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

SEAS BUILD TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY....BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. OBSERVED SEAS WERE 3-4 FEET OVERNIGHT RATHER
THAN 5 FEET.  THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF RI SOUND AND BLOCK ISLAND
SOUND WILL BRIEFLY REACH 5 FEET THIS MORNING. BUT THE MAIN
INCREASE ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL NOT COME UNTIL TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD
BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED ON RI SOUND AND THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD. BUILDING SEAS WILL NOT REACH 5 FEET THERE
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND AND RI SOUNDS...WHERE SEAS WILL
FLIRT WITH 5 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING MORE HUMIDITY TO THE AIR TONIGHT...ENOUGH
TO GENERATE AREAS OF FOG DURING THE NIGHT. THIS FOG WILL LOWER THE
VISIBILITY...POSSIBLY TO BELOW 1 MILE. CONFIDENCE ON THE FOG IS
MODERATE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

GENERALLY MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU THE PERIOD.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SURFACE TUE NIGHT BUT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT STILL
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BRING SEAS OVER 5 FEET FOR COASTAL
WATERS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH. AREAS OF FOG WILL HAMPER VISIBILITY.
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING TSTMS
LATE WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALIZED SHIFTING AND GUSTING WINDS.

TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WED NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH LIGHT WINDS...SUBSIDING SEAS AND GOOD VISIBILITY.

SUBTROPICAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF SE USA COAST THIS WEEKEND BUT
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON INTENSITY AS WELL NOW KEEPING SURFACE
CENTER WELL OFFSHORE S OF NEW ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS...THERE COULD
BE SOME SWELLS GENERATED THAT REACH NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BOX

000
FXUS61 KALY 141759
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS PATHWAY FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO
MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON LOOK FAIRLY WEAK BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
BRING A SOAKING POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME HOLES AND THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DRIFTED NORTHEAST
THROUGH PARTS OF THE REGION...HELPING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW
DEGREES MORE THAN FORECASTED. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A BREAK IN THE
SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN SOME AREAS. SOME SHOWERS WITH HEAVIER RAIN ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND ARE
LIFTING NORTH. CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE CLOSING OFF THE HOLES AND THIN
SPOTS...SEEN ON RADAR AND SATELLITE PICTURES. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES...SKY COVER AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGHER THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RUN FROM THE CATSKILLS...NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES NOT REALLY LOOK LIKE A CLASSICAL HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT...BUT CERTAINLY A MODERATE ONE. THE UPPER AIR TROUGH
IS SOMEWHAT WEAK. THERE WILL BE A LOW LEVEL JET...POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO 40KTS TRANSPORTING PWAT VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH AND
HALF FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SSE TO
SOUTHERLY...THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE...STILL DEVELOPING DOWN IN THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL BE THE ONE TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS OUR CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST AREAS
COME UNDERNEATH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ASSISTANCE FROM
DIVERGENCE ALOFT UNDERNEATH THE LEFT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET.

THE TOTAL QPF AMOUNT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY WITH THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS GENERALLY GIVING A
TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM WERE
MORE IN THE 2-3+ INCH RANGE.

FOR NOW...PER HPC...HAVE LEANED WITH THE AMERICAN MODELS. MORE ABOUT
THE QPF AND WHAT IT COULD FOR OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREAS (HSA)
CAN BE FOUND IN OUR HYDROLOGY SECTION.

SHOWALTER INDICES REMAINED POSITIVE WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE
INSTABILITY THROUGH TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY SHOWALTER VALUES LOOK TO
APPROACH ZERO SO WE WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
TUESDAY TAKING THE SURFACE FRONT WITH IT AS IT GETS A KICK FROM
ANOTHER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS WELL...AND FINALLY END.

HOWEVER...THE "KICKER"...ANOTHER COLD FRONT...COULD PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS OF ITS OWN WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS
TO BE A MUCH FASTER MOVING SYSTEM SO ANY PRECIPITATION WITH IT
SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS HEAVY OR PROLONGED.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE RANGE IN DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60 AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S.

BY WEDNESDAY...WE EXPECT BREAKS OF SUNSHINE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH CONTINUE H850 TEMPERATURES NOT FAR FROM +10C.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR A BOUNCE IN TEMPERATURES AS THEY RISE BACK
THROUGH THE 70S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80 IN SOME OF THE WARMEST SPOTS
MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. DURING THE WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL BECOME A STATIONARY
ELONGATED RIDGE THAT WILL STRETCH ALONG THE COAST FROM NEW ENGLAND
TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. AT TIMES...
VARIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT
CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY DUE TO SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
INTO/THROUGH THE HIGH...BUT THEY HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SO WILL CONTINUE TO IGNORE THE THREAT AND FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS
FOR NOW.

TEMPS WILL START THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT...BUT THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE PIEDMONT OR
MID ATLANTIC REGION ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON SOME LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A
BATCH OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE. LAPSES TO MVFR VSBYS OR
CIGS WILL BE COMMON IN THE SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN. NO THUNDER WAS
ADDED AT THIS TIME...SINCE THE PROBABILITY LOOKS SMALL AT 20 PERCENT
OR LESS. THESE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD S/SW TO THE N/NE BTWN 18Z-22Z.
THERE MAYBE A BRIEF BREAK FOR A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER...AS STRATIFORM
RAIN SHIELD FILLS IN AHEAD OF THE WAVE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST.

EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS SHORTLY BEFORE
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL IN THE MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO 12Z/TUE. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
LEVELS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS NOONTIME. LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH 2 KFT AGL WINDS AROUND
30-40 KTS WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS OF 5 KTS OR LESS AT THE SFC.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 7 KTS PRIOR TO
00Z/TUE. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN BE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 7 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...
TUE-PM TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR -RA/RA LIKELY.
WED...MAINLY VFR...ISOLD-SCT SHRA.
WED NGT-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN MOST SECTIONS WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. AREAS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TODAY...WHILE OTHER REGIONS WILL HAVE A QUARTER
TO UPWARDS OF NEARLY HALF AN INCH.

RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...GENERALLY NO LOWER THAN 60-75
PERCENT.

A SOAKING RAIN IS IN THE OFFING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF INCH
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION.

SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE.

MUCH DRIER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY.

IT STILL LOOKS AS IF TODAY/S RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
THIS RAIN WILL PRODUCE MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS AT THE
MOST.

THEN...IT LOOKS OF AS IF A MORE STEADY AND POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAIN
WILL ENSUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL
LOOK TO BE IN ONE TO THREE INCH RANGE...EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR ADIRONDACKS.

ASSUMING THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT WORKS OUT...THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
ONLY SEE ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. OTHER
REGIONS WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH MANY OF THEM POSSIBLY REACHING ACTION STAGE.

AGAIN...ASSUMING WE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE QPF AMOUNTS...FLOODING
IS NOT LIKELY AND THEREFORE NO FLOOD WATCHES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS
RAINFALL EVENT AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO CHECK BACK
ON THE HYDROLOGY STATUS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEVERTHELESS...PONDING OF WATER IS A GOOD BET...MAINLY IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE AS RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT RIVER BASIN QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

DRIER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 141724
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS PATHWAY FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO
MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON LOOK FAIRLY WEAK BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
BRING A SOAKING POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME HOLES AND THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DRIFTED NORTHEAST
THROUGH PARTS OF THE REGION...HELPING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW
DEGREES MORE THAN FORECASTED. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A BREAK IN THE
SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN SOME AREAS. SOME SHOWERS WITH HEAVIER RAIN ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND ARE
LIFTING NORTH. CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE CLOSING OFF THE HOLES AND THIN
SPOTS...SEEN ON RADAR AND SATELLITE PICTURES. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPEERATURES...SKY COVER AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGHER THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RUN FROM THE CATSKILLS...NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES NOT REALLY LOOK LIKE A CLASSICAL HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT...BUT CERTAINLY A MODERATE ONE. THE UPPER AIR TROUGH
IS SOMEWHAT WEAK. THERE WILL BE A LOW LEVEL JET...POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO 40KTS TRANSPORTING PWAT VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH AND
HALF FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SSE TO
SOUTHERLY...THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE...STILL DEVELOPING DOWN IN THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL BE THE ONE TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS OUR CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST AREAS
COME UNDERNEATH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ASSISTANCE FROM
DIVERGENCE ALOFT UNDERNEATH THE LEFT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET.

THE TOTAL QPF AMOUNT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY WITH THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS GENERALLY GIVING A
TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM WERE
MORE IN THE 2-3+ INCH RANGE.

FOR NOW...PER HPC...HAVE LEANED WITH THE AMERICAN MODELS. MORE ABOUT
THE QPF AND WHAT IT COULD FOR OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREAS (HSA)
CAN BE FOUND IN OUR HYDROLOGY SECTION.

SHOWALTER INDICES REMAINED POSITIVE WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE
INSTABILITY THROUGH TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY SHOWALTER VALUES LOOK TO
APPROACH ZERO SO WE WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
TUESDAY TAKING THE SURFACE FRONT WITH IT AS IT GETS A KICK FROM
ANOTHER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS WELL...AND FINALLY END.

HOWEVER...THE "KICKER"...ANOTHER COLD FRONT...COULD PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS OF ITS OWN WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS
TO BE A MUCH FASTER MOVING SYSTEM SO ANY PRECIPITATION WITH IT
SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS HEAVY OR PROLONGED.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE RANGE IN DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60 AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S.

BY WEDNESDAY...WE EXPECT BREAKS OF SUNSHINE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH CONTINUE H850 TEMPERATURES NOT FAR FROM +10C.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR A BOUNCE IN TEMPERATURES AS THEY RISE BACK
THROUGH THE 70S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80 IN SOME OF THE WARMEST SPOTS
MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. DURING THE WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL BECOME A STATIONARY
ELONGATED RIDGE THAT WILL STRETCH ALONG THE COAST FROM NEW ENGLAND
TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. AT TIMES...
VARIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT
CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY DUE TO SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
INTO/THROUGH THE HIGH...BUT THEY HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SO WILL CONTINUE TO IGNORE THE THREAT AND FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS
FOR NOW.

TEMPS WILL START THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT...BUT THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AS LOW PRESSURE COMES SLOWLY UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. INITIALLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A BREAK IN THE PCPN FOR PART OF
THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLE AS RADAR IMAGERY AT 630 AM SHOWS A LARGE
AREA OF LITTLE OR NO RAIN OVER ERN PA AND NJ. AS A RESULT...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES FOR MOST OF
TODAY...WHILE MVFR/IFR VSBY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF WHERE THE
LOWER VSBYS ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO FOG (CIGS WILL BE MAINLY
VFR).

DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTERNOON...AS NOTED ABOVE...
RAINFALL MAY END FOR A TIME OR BECOME SCATTERED. CONDITIONS LIKELY
TO BE MAINLY VFR AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES. HOWEVER...AS THE HEAVIER
RAIN ARRIVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT
ALL THE TAF SITES INTO THE VENING...THEN ALL SITES WILL HAVE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT...WITHTHE WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z
TUESDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT NORTHERLY (5 KTS OR LESS) TO
START THE TAF PERIOD...THEN SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY LATER THIS MORNING
AND PICK UP TO 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT...BUT DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

.OUTLOOK...
TUE-TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR RA LIKELY.
WED...MAINLY VFR...SCT SHRA.
WED NGT-FRI...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN MOST SECTIONS WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. AREAS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TODAY...WHILE OTHER REGIONS WILL HAVE A QUARTER
TO UPWARDS OF NEARLY HALF AN INCH.

RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...GENERALLY NO LOWER THAN 60-75
PERCENT.

A SOAKING RAIN IS IN THE OFFING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF INCH
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION.

SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE.

MUCH DRIER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY.

IT STILL LOOKS AS IF TODAY/S RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
THIS RAIN WILL PRODUCE MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS AT THE
MOST.

THEN...IT LOOKS OF AS IF A MORE STEADY AND POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAIN
WILL ENSUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL
LOOK TO BE IN ONE TO THREE INCH RANGE...EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR ADIRONDACKS.

ASSUMING THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT WORKS OUT...THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
ONLY SEE ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. OTHER
REGIONS WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH MANY OF THEM POSSIBLY REACHING ACTION STAGE.

AGAIN...ASSUMING WE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE QPF AMOUNTS...FLOODING
IS NOT LIKELY AND THEREFORE NO FLOOD WATCHES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS
RAINFALL EVENT AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO CHECK BACK
ON THE HYDROLOGY STATUS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEVERTHELESS...PONDING OF WATER IS A GOOD BET...MAINLY IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE AS RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT RIVER BASIN QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

DRIER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 141717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS PATHWAY FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO
MOVE ALONG IT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON LOOK FAIRLY WEAK BRINGNING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
BRING A SOAKING POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME HOLES AND THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DRIFTED NORTHEAST
THROUGH PARTS OF THE REGION...HELPING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW
DEGREES MORE THAN FORECASTED. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A BREAK IN THE
SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN SOME AREAS. SOME SHOWERS WITH HEAVIER RAIN ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND ARE
LIFTING NORTH. CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE CLOSING OFF THE HOLES AND THIN
SPOTS...SEEN ON RADAR AND SATELLITE PICTURES. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPEERATURES...SKY COVER AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGHER THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RUN FROM THE CATSKILLS...NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES NOT REALLY LOOK LIKE A CLASSICAL HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT...BUT CERTAINLY A MODERATE ONE. THE UPPER AIR TROUGH
IS SOMEWHAT WEAK. THERE WILL BE A LOW LEVEL JET...POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO 40KTS TRANSPORTING PWAT VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH AND
HALF FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SSE TO
SOUTHERLY...THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE...STILL DEVELOPING DOWN IN THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL BE THE ONE TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS OUR CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST AREAS
COME UNDERNEATH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ASSISTANCE FROM
DIVERGENCE ALOFT UNDERNEATH THE LEFT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET.

THE TOTAL QPF AMOUNT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY WITH THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS GENERALLY GIVING A
TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM WERE
MORE IN THE 2-3+ INCH RANGE.

FOR NOW...PER HPC...HAVE LEANED WITH THE AMERICAN MODELS. MORE ABOUT
THE QPF AND WHAT IT COULD FOR OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREAS (HSA)
CAN BE FOUND IN OUR HYDROLOGY SECTION.

SHOWALTER INDICES REMAINED POSITIVE WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE
INSTABILITY THROUGH TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY SHOWALTER VALUES LOOK TO
APPROACH ZERO SO WE WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
TUESDAY TAKING THE SURFACE FRONT WITH IT AS IT GETS A KICK FROM
ANOTHER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS WELL...AND FINALLY END.

HOWEVER...THE "KICKER"...ANOTHER COLD FRONT...COULD PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS OF ITS OWN WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS
TO BE A MUCH FASTER MOVING SYSTEM SO ANY PRECIPITATION WITH IT
SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS HEAVY OR PROLONGED.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE RANGE IN DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60 AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S.

BY WEDNESDAY...WE EXPECT BREAKS OF SUNSHINE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH CONTINUE H850 TEMPERATURES NOT FAR FROM +10C.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR A BOUNCE IN TEMPERATURES AS THEY RISE BACK
THROUGH THE 70S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80 IN SOME OF THE WARMEST SPOTS
MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. DURING THE WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL BECOME A STATIONARY
ELONGATED RIDGE THAT WILL STRETCH ALONG THE COAST FROM NEW ENGLAND
TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. AT TIMES...
VARIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT
CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY DUE TO SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
INTO/THROUGH THE HIGH...BUT THEY HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SO WILL CONTINUE TO IGNORE THE THREAT AND FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS
FOR NOW.

TEMPS WILL START THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT...BUT THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AS LOW PRESSURE COMES SLOWLY UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. INITIALLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A BREAK IN THE PCPN FOR PART OF
THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLE AS RADAR IMAGERY AT 630 AM SHOWS A LARGE
AREA OF LITTLE OR NO RAIN OVER ERN PA AND NJ. AS A RESULT...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES FOR MOST OF
TODAY...WHILE MVFR/IFR VSBY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF WHERE THE
LOWER VSBYS ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO FOG (CIGS WILL BE MAINLY
VFR).

DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTERNOON...AS NOTED ABOVE...
RAINFALL MAY END FOR A TIME OR BECOME SCATTERED. CONDITIONS LIKELY
TO BE MAINLY VFR AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES. HOWEVER...AS THE HEAVIER
RAIN ARRIVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT
ALL THE TAF SITES INTO THE VENING...THEN ALL SITES WILL HAVE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT...WITHTHE WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z
TUESDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT NORTHERLY (5 KTS OR LESS) TO
START THE TAF PERIOD...THEN SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY LATER THIS MORNING
AND PICK UP TO 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT...BUT DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

.OUTLOOK...
TUE-TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR RA LIKELY.
WED...MAINLY VFR...SCT SHRA.
WED NGT-FRI...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN MOST SECTIONS WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. AREAS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TODAY...WHILE OTHER REGIONS WILL HAVE A QUARTER
TO UPWARDS OF NEARLY HALF AN INCH.

RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...GENERALLY NO LOWER THAN 60-75
PERCENT.

A SOAKING RAIN IS IN THE OFFING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF INCH
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION.

SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE.

MUCH DRIER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY.

IT STILL LOOKS AS IF TODAY/S RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
THIS RAIN WILL PRODUCE MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS AT THE
MOST.

THEN...IT LOOKS OF AS IF A MORE STEADY AND POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAIN
WILL ENSUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL
LOOK TO BE IN ONE TO THREE INCH RANGE...EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR ADIRONDACKS.

ASSUMING THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT WORKS OUT...THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
ONLY SEE ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. OTHER
REGIONS WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH MANY OF THEM POSSIBLY REACHING ACTION STAGE.

AGAIN...ASSUMING WE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE QPF AMOUNTS...FLOODING
IS NOT LIKELY AND THEREFORE NO FLOOD WATCHES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS
RAINFALL EVENT AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO CHECK BACK
ON THE HYDROLOGY STATUS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEVERTHELESS...PONDING OF WATER IS A GOOD BET...MAINLY IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE AS RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT RIVER BASIN QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

DRIER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 141424
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1024 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS PATHWAY FOR SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO
MOVE ALONG IT...STARTING TODAY...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TODAY
DISTURBANCES LOOK FAIRLY WEAK BRAINING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING
A SOAKING POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM...ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE
AREA ENDING THE SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST. WE ATTEMPTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BREAK IN
THE LIGHT PCP IN THE GRIDS UNTIL THE MID TO LATE PM. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH W-CNTRL PA. WE
INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY VALUES IN THE MID TO LATE PM FROM SW
TO NE. WE USED THE NUMEROUS PHRASING FOR THE LATE PM. A CONTINUOUS CLOUD
BAND EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE TN VALLEY WITH THE FRONT.
SOME MINOR GLIMPSES OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
MORNING/PM. NONETHELESS...TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN WITH THE
SHOWERS/CLOUDS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. WE LOWERED MAX TEMPS
BY A FEW DEGREES WITH MAINLY MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A 1-3 INCH RAIN EVENT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. WE
UPDATED THE QPF WITH THE LATEST RFC QPF GRIDS. MORE LATER ON THE
SOAKING RAINFALL WITH LATER UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGHER THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RUN FROM THE CATSKILLS...NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO THE SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES NOT REALLY LOOK LIKE A CLASSICAL HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT...BUT CERTAINLY A MODERATE ONE. THE UPPER AIR TROUGH
IS SOMEWHAT WEAK. THERE WILL BE A LOW LEVEL JET...POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO 40KTS TRANSPORTING PWAT VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH AND
HALF FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SSE TO
SOUTHERLY...THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE...STILL DEVELOPING DOWN IN THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL BE THE ONE TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS OUR CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST AREAS
COME UNDERNEATH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ASSISTANCE FROM
DIVERGENCE ALOFT UNDERNEATH THE LEFT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET.

THE TOTAL QPF AMOUNT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY WITH THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS GENERALLY GIVING A
TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM WERE
MORE IN THE 2-3+ INCH RANGE.

FOR NOW...PER HPC...HAVE LEANED WITH THE AMERICAN MODELS. MORE ABOUT
THE QPF AND WHAT IT COULD FOR OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREAS (HSA)
CAN BE FOUND IN OUR HYDROLOGY SECTION.

SHOWALTER INDICES REMAINED POSITIVE WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE
INSTABILITY THROUGH TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY SHOWALTER VALUES LOOK TO
APPROACH ZERO SO WE WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
TUESDAY TAKING THE SURFACE FRONT WITH IT AS IT GETS A KICK FROM
ANOTHER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS WELL...AND FINALLY END.

HOWEVER...THE "KICKER"...ANOTHER COLD FRONT...COULD PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS OF ITS OWN WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS
TO BE A MUCH FASTER MOVING SYSTEM SO ANY PRECIPITATION WITH IT
SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS HEAVY OR PROLONGED.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE RANGE IN DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60 AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S.

BY WEDNESDAY...WE EXPECT BREAKS OF SUNSHINE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH CONTINUE H850 TEMPERATURES NOT FAR FROM +10C.
THEREFORE...LOOK FOR A BOUNCE IN TEMPERATURES AS THEY RISE BACK
THROUGH THE 70S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80 IN SOME OF THE WARMEST SPOTS
MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. DURING THE WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL BECOME A STATIONARY
ELONGATED RIDGE THAT WILL STRETCH ALONG THE COAST FROM NEW ENGLAND
TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SHOULD KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. AT TIMES...
VARIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT
CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY DUE TO SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
INTO/THROUGH THE HIGH...BUT THEY HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SO WILL CONTINUE TO IGNORE THE THREAT AND FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS
FOR NOW.

TEMPS WILL START THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT...BUT THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AS LOW PRESSURE COMES SLOWLY UP THE APPALACHIAN
CHAIN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. INITIALLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A BREAK IN THE PCPN FOR PART OF
THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLE AS RADAR IMAGERY AT 630 AM SHOWS A LARGE
AREA OF LITTLE OR NO RAIN OVER ERN PA AND NJ. AS A RESULT...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES FOR MOST OF
TODAY...WHILE MVFR/IFR VSBY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF WHERE THE
LOWER VSBYS ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO FOG (CIGS WILL BE MAINLY
VFR).

DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTERNOON...AS NOTED ABOVE...
RAINFALL MAY END FOR A TIME OR BECOME SCATTERED. CONDITIONS LIKELY
TO BE MAINLY VFR AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES. HOWEVER...AS THE HEAVIER
RAIN ARRIVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT
ALL THE TAF SITES INTO THE VENING...THEN ALL SITES WILL HAVE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT...WITHTHE WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z
TUESDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT NORTHERLY (5 KTS OR LESS) TO
START THE TAF PERIOD...THEN SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY LATER THIS MORNING
AND PICK UP TO 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT...BUT DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

.OUTLOOK...
TUE-TUE NGT...MVFR/IFR RA LIKELY.
WED...MAINLY VFR...SCT SHRA.
WED NGT-FRI...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN MOST SECTIONS WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. AREAS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TODAY...WHILE OTHER REGIONS WILL HAVE A QUARTER
TO UPWARDS OF NEARLY HALF AN INCH.

RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...GENERALLY NO LOWER THAN 60-75
PERCENT.

A SOAKING RAIN IS IN THE OFFING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF INCH
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION.

SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE.

MUCH DRIER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY.

IT STILL LOOKS AS IF TODAY/S RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
THIS RAIN WILL PRODUCE MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS AT THE
MOST.

THEN...IT LOOKS OF AS IF A MORE STEADY AND POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAIN
WILL ENSUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL
LOOK TO BE IN ONE TO THREE INCH RANGE...EXCEPT A LITTLE LESS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR ADIRONDACKS.

ASSUMING THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT WORKS OUT...THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
ONLY SEE ONLY ADDITIONAL MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. OTHER
REGIONS WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WITH MANY OF THEM POSSIBLY REACHING ACTION STAGE.

AGAIN...ASSUMING WE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE QPF AMOUNTS...FLOODING
IS NOT LIKELY AND THEREFORE NO FLOOD WATCHES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS
RAINFALL EVENT AT THIS TIME. IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO CHECK BACK
ON THE HYDROLOGY STATUS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEVERTHELESS...PONDING OF WATER IS A GOOD BET...MAINLY IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE AS RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT RIVER BASIN QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

DRIER WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD ALLOW RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RECEDE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...NAS/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBOX 141421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

A STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
HEAVIER RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT MAY SET OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING EXHIBITS A FAIRLY STEEP LOW-MID LVL LAYER
/H9-H7/ ABOVE THE SFC INVERSION...A LAYER OF WHICH INCORPORATES
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 250 J/KG. ALREADY THIS MORNING...AN
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN SHOWER WITH SOME PSBL EMBEDDED THUNDER
DEVELOPED OVER NARRAGANSET BAY AND QUICKLY DISSIPATED. AS A PSBL
SIGN OF THINGS TO COME...THE ANTICIPATION FOR TODAY IS THAT SWLY
FLOW ALONG THE E COASTLINE AHEAD OF THE SERN CONUS DISTURBANCE
WILL AMPLIFY THE MID-LVL RIDGE. CONSEQUENTIALLY...FEEL THE SRN AND
ERN FCST RGN WILL BE UNDER AN INCREASING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES.
SLY FLOW WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
THRU THE ATMOS COLUMN RESULTING IN A RETROGRADING OF THE STALLED FRNTL
BOUNDARY INTO THE INTERIOR NERN CONUS STRETCHING SWWD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC.

WILL BE MONITORING LOW-LVL PROFILES INTO THIS AFTN. CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING ACROSS THE RGN ALLOWING IN SOME SUNSHINE...THATS THE
BIGGEST CONCERN. THE ENVIRONMENT OUTSIDE HAS A SULTRY FEEL TO IT
/FAIRLY MOIST THRU THE COLUMN WITH PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES/ WHICH
LEADS TO SOME CONCERN WHETHER CONVECTION CAN INITIATE LATER TODAY.
THE 12Z OKX SOUNDING EXHIBITS AN ELEVATED MIX LAYER AROUND H8-H6
/BUT LESSER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LOWER TO THE SFC/. SHEAR IS
WEAK...SO THINKING HEAVY RAINS SHOWERS ARE PSBL WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WITH THE MEAN FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND
15-20 MPH /NOTHING SEVERE AND NOT THINKING LONG SUSTAINED
CONVECTION/.

WILL KEEP CHC POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. LATEST
MDL FCST GUIDANCE HINTS AT LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENCE OF THE
AMPLIFIED SLY FLOW ACROSS THE RGN /THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/...IN ADDITION TO 250-500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. AM
HESITANT TO BELIEVE THAT ALL ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED...BUT
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS THE BETTER CHCS OF ACTIVITY
ALONG THE FRNTL BOUNDARY AS IT RETROGRADES BACK INTO THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTH AS DO WINDS UP THROUGH 850 MB. THE ZONE
OF STRONGEST WINDS AT 925 MB AND 850 MB CONTINUES TO AIM FOR
OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH A SLIGHT TURN OVER SOUTHERN NH. WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AND SOUTHERN
NH...WITH DECREASING POPS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.

SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN
TONIGHT...MOSTLY UPPER 50S BUT WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWER
60S. THE SST/S IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS ARE IN THE MID 50S. THIS
COMBINATION WOULD SUPPORT FOG FORMATION OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THAT COULD EXPAND OVER THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...
CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS EAST A LITTLE
DURING THE DAY. THIS IN TURN INCREASES THE LIFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SHIFTS THE FOCUS EAST TO COVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.50 INCHES...SUPPORTING
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. WE WILL BRING POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL AND EXPAND
THEM EAST TO COVER MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...LIKELY POPS TO
THE CAPE COD CANAL.

TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING
* DRY WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

MOST OF THE FOCUS IS ON THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME
FRAME WITH IMPACT OF SOUTHERN ENERGY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRES AND UPPER NW FLOW SHOULD
KEEP AREA DRY AT LEAST THRU THE WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SUBTROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SE USA COAST
THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER WITH MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THE GFS A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THE
OTHER MODELS. ALL MODELS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS AND SHOW PASSAGE OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OF ABOUT 40 KT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT FORCING WITH A
TONGUE OF PWATS TO 1.5 IN SHOULD SET STAGE FOR A FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN
EVENT CONTINUING FROM WESTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THINK STORM TOTALS
SHOULD RANGE GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES...MID CT RIVER VALLEY...NORTHERN RI...WORCESTER HILLS AND
THE MONADNOCKS HELPED BY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC LIFT. FLOOD ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ENOUGH RAIN TO PUT STREAMS OVER THEIR BANKS. DO NOT EXPECT
MOST OF THE WIND MOMENTUM ALOFT TO MIX THRU THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS DO NOT AT THIS
TIME FORESEE A NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIR
STEADY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
OVERNIGHT. POPS REACH CATEGORICAL EVERYWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDER TUESDAY NIGHT
BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES AND INSTABILITY INDICES. SHOWALTER DROPS
TO NEAR 0 AND K INDICES GENERALLY 33 TO 35 DURING THE NIGHT. EVEN
THE TOTAL TOTALS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

WEDNESDAY...THIS DAY COULD PROVE A BIT TRICKY. STEADY RAINFALL
SHOULD LIFT NE AND OFF THE COAST DURING THE MORNING ALONG WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET. A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE SHARPLY RESOLVED
BY THE MODELS...THINK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE INTERIOR
AND THEN MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE EVENING. NOTE
ALSO THAT THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL
SHOW SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS. TIMING OF BOTH THE EXIT OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IN THE MORNING AND APPROACH OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY MAY BE CRITICAL AS TO POTENTIAL
FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS OF
35 TO 40+ KT INCREASE TOWARD EVENING IN THE WEST AND MAY TRANSLATE
TO A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM. POSSIBLE
THAT ACTIVITY FORMS IN NEW YORK STATE WED AFTERNOON AND REACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOO LATE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OPTIMUM DIURNAL HEATING.

HI TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND AT LEAST IN PART ON DEGREE OF
CLOUDINESS. THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING DURING MID
AND LATE MORNING BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN WITH CU/TCU FROM
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW THINKING WILL REACH
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE EVENING OVER THE SE
PORTION OF AREA. THEN CLEARING SHOULD PROGRESS FAIRLY QUICKLY NW TO
SE WITH DROPPING DEWPOINTS.

THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY...LOOKS DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LARGE
SURFACE HIGH PRES DOMINATES ALONG WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT THRU
THE PERIOD. OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THU NIGHT MAY BRING THREAT
OF FROST TO PORTIONS OF NW MA AND SW NH. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

14Z UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...
FRNTL BOUNDARY WILL WOBBLE BACK INTO PA/NY/N NEW ENGLAND INTO AFTN.
S/SWLY FLOW ADVECTING CIGS 5-6 KFT. SCTD -SHRA INTO THE EVNG...
BEST CHCS ACROSS WRN TERMINALS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TSRA...BUT NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ACTIVITY FOCUSED ALONG A FRONT RETROGRADING
INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND INTO TONIGHT. ANY -SHRA MAY INCORPORATE
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. IFR/LIFR FOG ALONG THE S COAST PSBL TONIGHT...
LLWS IS ALSO PSBL ACROSS THE WRN TERMINALS BY MORNING /40 KTS 2-3
KFT AGL/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. INCREASING -SHRA INTO TUE WITH
PSBL HEAVY RAIN AND SCTD TSRA.

KBOS TAF...
FRNTL BOUNDARY WILL WOBBLE IN PROXIMITY TO TERMINAL INTO THE
MIDDAY PD. DIFFUSE NATURE LENDS TO VRB06KT. EXPECT SLY WINDS INTO
AFTN. ISO TO SCTD -SHRA FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FOG PSBL INTO THE
EVNG PD...-SHRA CONTINUING INTO TUE WITH SLY FLOW.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOW CIGS...RAIN AND FOG. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING RAPIDLY TO VFR WEST
AND PROBABLY VFR EAST AS WELL BY MID OR LATE MORNING. A CHANCE OF
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY TSTMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

WED NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR WEST AND BECOMING VFR
EAST.

THU THRU FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

SEAS BUILD TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY....BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. OBSERVED SEAS WERE 3-4 FEET OVERNIGHT RATHER
THAN 5 FEET.  THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF RI SOUND AND BLOCK ISLAND
SOUND WILL BRIEFLY REACH 5 FEET THIS MORNING. BUT THE MAIN
INCREASE ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL NOT COME UNTIL TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD
BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED ON RI SOUND AND THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD. BUILDING SEAS WILL NOT REACH 5 FEET THERE
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND AND RI SOUNDS...WHERE SEAS WILL
FLIRT WITH 5 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING MORE HUMIDITY TO THE AIR TONIGHT...ENOUGH
TO GENERATE AREAS OF FOG DURING THE NIGHT. THIS FOG WILL LOWER THE
VISIBILITY...POSSIBLY TO BELOW 1 MILE. CONFIDENCE ON THE FOG IS
MODERATE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

GENERALLY MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU THE PERIOD.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY FOR THE MOST PART NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SURFACE TUE NIGHT BUT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT STILL
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL BRING SEAS OVER 5 FEET FOR COASTAL
WATERS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH. AREAS OF FOG WILL HAMPER VISIBILITY.
COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING TSTMS
LATE WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALIZED SHIFTING AND GUSTING WINDS.

TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WED NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH LIGHT WINDS...SUBSIDING SEAS AND GOOD VISIBILITY.

SUBTROPICAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF SE USA COAST THIS WEEKEND BUT
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON INTENSITY AS WELL NOW KEEPING SURFACE
CENTER WELL OFFSHORE S OF NEW ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS...THERE COULD
BE SOME SWELLS GENERATED THAT REACH NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

BUOY 44013 IN MASS BAY WILL BE RETURNED TO SERVICE AROUND JUNE
19TH...PENDING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BOX