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000
FXUS61 KBOX 252110
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG NOREASTER WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW...WIND AND COASTAL ISSUES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

400 PM UPDATE...

DRY AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL. A FEW RADAR ECHOES ARE SKIRTING CLOSE
TO THE ISLANDS...BUT BELIEVE THAT THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY ENOUGH THAT
VIRGA MAY FALL OUT. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S WILL BEGIN
TO DROP THIS EVENING. CLOUDS COVER CONTINUES TO BE PERSISENT AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE THE CAROLINA COAST.
EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT...UNTIL PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR
09Z.

NOT A LOT OF COOL AIR ALOFT SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AS
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIURNAL RADIATION. LOW OVERNIGHT WILL DROP IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. HOWEVER ONCE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
REGION...AND DEPENDING ON INTENSITY TEMPS MAY WET BULB AND DROP AT
OR BELOW FREEZING.

HAVE NOTICED THAT THIS SYSTEM IS SPEEDING UP SO THE MORNING COMMUTE
MAY BE IMPACT FOR CT AND RI TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

IMPACTS...

* HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR IMPACTING WED TRAVEL
* GUSTY WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PLYMOUTH CO AND THE ISLANDS
* STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
* MINOR BEACH EROSION AND SPLASHOVER FOR THE THURS AM HIGH TIDE

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS HAS ALLOWED A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...TAPPING IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF AS WELL
AS THE BAHAMAS. FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND
GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST AND DEVELOP AN EARLY SEASON
NOR`EASTER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS A VERY QUICK SYSTEM DUE
TO THE LACK OF BLOCKING UPSTREAM. SURFACE LOW IS STILL TRACKING NEAR
THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD
AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING OVER BDL-MHT LINE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY WED NIGHT AND PRECIP SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN BY DAY BREAK THURSDAY.

GUIDANCE...

GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR THE 12Z SUITE. BIGGEST
THING IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A FEW HOURS FASTER THEN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGER-SCALE FEATURES INCLUDING
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS REMAIN. APPEARS THAT THERE IS A 700 MB WARM-AIR
INTRUSION/DRY SLOT IMPENDING UP NARRAGANSETT BAY AND UP INTO NORFOLK
CO. NOTED THAT THE NAM/CMC WHERE THE COLDER SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO
THE GFS/EC/SREF AND UKMET WHICH WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THEIR TEMPS
ALOFT. BECAUSE OF THIS GOOD CLUSTERING TRENDED THE FORECAST WITH THE
GFS/EC/WPC IN TERMS OF THICKNESS AND QPF.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WAS DETERMINING SNOWFALL ACCUMS AND P-
TYPES. BIGGEST REASON IS THE 700 MB WARM LAYER MOVING INTO THE
REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
NORTHWARD THIS WARM LAYER MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD PLAY
ISSUES ON THE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT THIS WARM
LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WELL INTO RI AND NORFOLK CO AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST KEEPING BOSTON RIGHT ON THE FRINGE OF SUB-ZERO THERMAL
PROFILE. AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS BELOW 0C WEST OF THE CANAL BELIEVE
SLEET/WINTRY MIX WILL BE INTRODUCED. HOWEVER THE 18Z NAM CAME IN A
LOT WARMER AT THE 700MB LEVEL...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE THIS SNOW TOTALS WILL BE TO HIGH. LASTLY A
COASTAL FRONT WILL ALSO SET UP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHERE IT DECIDES TO DEVELOP.

AT THE ONSET...BECAUSE OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP ISSUES BELIEVE RAIN
WILL START OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...NEAR DAY BREAK. AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE
REGION AND THERMAL FIELDS ALOFT TIGHTEN...EXPECT A GOOD BANDING
SIGNATURE TO DEVELOP...NEAR BDL TO ORH TO BED AT AROUND 15/18Z.
PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR.
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS BELIEVE THAT A COASTAL FRONT WILL SET
UP AND KEEP MOST OF THE COASTAL REGION IN RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.
HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK TO A NNE DIRECTION AS WELL EXPECT
MORE LOW LEVEL COOLING WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP TO ALL SNOW FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION...EXPECT ALONG THE 95 CORRIDOR WHERE A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL ALSO
SWITCH TO A MORE NNE ASSOCIATION AS THE THERMAL FIELDS GET BACKED
FROM THE MID-LEVEL WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PUSH
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL OVER THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN NH. FINALLY AS THE
STORM EXITS OUT...A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ALL PRECIP TO
SWITCH TO SNOW AND ALLOW FOR A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS.

OVERALL HAVE EXPANDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS TO ALL OF
SOUTHERN NH...AND MOST OF MASS MINUS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NORTHERN
CT. DECIDED TO GO WITH ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF RI UP TO COASTAL
ESSEX INCLUDING THE CITIES OF PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON. ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS ARE UNDER ADVISORY FOR THE METRO REGIONS...BECAUSE OF THE
HIGH IMPACT THIS EVENT CAN HAVE ON THE PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FELT
THE ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED. ALSO WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE
OR IF TEMPS DROP JUST A DEGREE...ACCUMULATIONS COULD ADD UP. FOR NOW
BELIEVE THAT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT ANOTHER COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SLEET CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WINDS...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF
RI AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WED AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS PROJECTING 45-50 KT JET AT 925 MB. THIS
COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS
PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 11 AM THU.
BECAUSE THE JET DYNAMIC DOES NOT SEEM AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS
HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA. IF THE COASTAL SYSTEM DOES DEEPEN MORE THEN FORECASTED...AND
THE LLJ DOES STRENGTHEN THEN A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY QUICK SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH TO BUILD THE SEAS IS LOW. EVEN THE
DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS ARE SHORT PLUS WITH PRESSURES BEGINNING TO
RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES
INCLUDING EROSION. WORSE CAST...COULD SEE A SURGE NEAR 1.5 FEET
WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR TYPICAL
PRONE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES UP THE COAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. THE FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN SMALL DIVERGENCE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER/FARTHER
EAST WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THE
MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAINTAINS AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE BY
NEXT TUESDAY/DAY SEVEN.

THE DAILIES...

THANKSGIVING DAY... SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRAILS THE
WEDNESDAY STORM...AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP SUPPLY
OF HIGH-RH AIR AND SOME WEAK LIFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.  WE WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PCPN.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S CAPE AND ISLANDS.

WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S EXCEPT LOWER 30S CAPE AND ISLANDS. ANY WET SURFACES FROM THE
DAYTIME WILL REFREEZE IN MOST LOCATIONS RESULTING IN TRICKY POST-
MEAL TRAVEL ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES.

FRIDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE
MORNING WITH LINGERING AIRMASS MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT IF ANY. THIS
COULD HOLD THE CLOUDS IN A LITTLE LONGER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT IT
MOVES OUT QUICKLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SO THE TREND
WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES.  MIXING DEPTH WITH THE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SHALLOW...AROUND 950 MB OR MAYBE A LITTLE
HIGHER.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S AND WINDS GUSTING TO
15-20 KNOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INITIALLY FALL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BUT MOISTURE
FIELDS SUGGEST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY LOW
CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE OCEAN TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
FORECAST TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH 14-23 EXCEPT 24-30
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT SWEEPS NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A 12C INCREASED IN TEMPS ALOFT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING VARIABLE SKY COVER...AS NOTED BY
RH FIELDS ALOFT IN THE MODELS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS TO OUR SURFACE WINDS EACH DAY. BUT
LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL EACH DAY WITH BETTER
MIXING SATURDAY AND LESS SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW THIS FAR OUT IS IN QUESTION BUT THAT/S
OUR BEST SHOT AT THIS TIME. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT TOGETHER WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FROM A 125 KNOT JET...SO WE HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S
COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND
POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...INCREASING SKY COVER BUT MAINLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
INCREASING WINDS AT 2000 FEET...REACHING SOUTHWEST 35-40
KNOTS...WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. SW WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY
VEER DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN NEAR 5 FT.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW RISK OF STORM FORCE GUSTS 21Z
WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES. GALE WARNING IS OUT WITH HIGH END GUSTS ANTICIPATE. CANT
RULE OUT A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MORNING BUT
DIMINISHING. SEAS START THE DAY 5 TO 11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS
AND SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON
SOME OF THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     RIZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252110
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG NOREASTER WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW...WIND AND COASTAL ISSUES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

400 PM UPDATE...

DRY AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL. A FEW RADAR ECHOES ARE SKIRTING CLOSE
TO THE ISLANDS...BUT BELIEVE THAT THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY ENOUGH THAT
VIRGA MAY FALL OUT. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S WILL BEGIN
TO DROP THIS EVENING. CLOUDS COVER CONTINUES TO BE PERSISENT AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE THE CAROLINA COAST.
EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT...UNTIL PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR
09Z.

NOT A LOT OF COOL AIR ALOFT SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AS
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIURNAL RADIATION. LOW OVERNIGHT WILL DROP IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. HOWEVER ONCE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
REGION...AND DEPENDING ON INTENSITY TEMPS MAY WET BULB AND DROP AT
OR BELOW FREEZING.

HAVE NOTICED THAT THIS SYSTEM IS SPEEDING UP SO THE MORNING COMMUTE
MAY BE IMPACT FOR CT AND RI TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

IMPACTS...

* HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR IMPACTING WED TRAVEL
* GUSTY WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PLYMOUTH CO AND THE ISLANDS
* STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
* MINOR BEACH EROSION AND SPLASHOVER FOR THE THURS AM HIGH TIDE

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS HAS ALLOWED A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...TAPPING IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF AS WELL
AS THE BAHAMAS. FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND
GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST AND DEVELOP AN EARLY SEASON
NOR`EASTER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS A VERY QUICK SYSTEM DUE
TO THE LACK OF BLOCKING UPSTREAM. SURFACE LOW IS STILL TRACKING NEAR
THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD
AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING OVER BDL-MHT LINE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY WED NIGHT AND PRECIP SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN BY DAY BREAK THURSDAY.

GUIDANCE...

GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR THE 12Z SUITE. BIGGEST
THING IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A FEW HOURS FASTER THEN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGER-SCALE FEATURES INCLUDING
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS REMAIN. APPEARS THAT THERE IS A 700 MB WARM-AIR
INTRUSION/DRY SLOT IMPENDING UP NARRAGANSETT BAY AND UP INTO NORFOLK
CO. NOTED THAT THE NAM/CMC WHERE THE COLDER SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO
THE GFS/EC/SREF AND UKMET WHICH WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THEIR TEMPS
ALOFT. BECAUSE OF THIS GOOD CLUSTERING TRENDED THE FORECAST WITH THE
GFS/EC/WPC IN TERMS OF THICKNESS AND QPF.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WAS DETERMINING SNOWFALL ACCUMS AND P-
TYPES. BIGGEST REASON IS THE 700 MB WARM LAYER MOVING INTO THE
REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
NORTHWARD THIS WARM LAYER MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD PLAY
ISSUES ON THE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT THIS WARM
LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WELL INTO RI AND NORFOLK CO AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST KEEPING BOSTON RIGHT ON THE FRINGE OF SUB-ZERO THERMAL
PROFILE. AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS BELOW 0C WEST OF THE CANAL BELIEVE
SLEET/WINTRY MIX WILL BE INTRODUCED. HOWEVER THE 18Z NAM CAME IN A
LOT WARMER AT THE 700MB LEVEL...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE THIS SNOW TOTALS WILL BE TO HIGH. LASTLY A
COASTAL FRONT WILL ALSO SET UP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHERE IT DECIDES TO DEVELOP.

AT THE ONSET...BECAUSE OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP ISSUES BELIEVE RAIN
WILL START OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...NEAR DAY BREAK. AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE
REGION AND THERMAL FIELDS ALOFT TIGHTEN...EXPECT A GOOD BANDING
SIGNATURE TO DEVELOP...NEAR BDL TO ORH TO BED AT AROUND 15/18Z.
PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR.
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS BELIEVE THAT A COASTAL FRONT WILL SET
UP AND KEEP MOST OF THE COASTAL REGION IN RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.
HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK TO A NNE DIRECTION AS WELL EXPECT
MORE LOW LEVEL COOLING WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP TO ALL SNOW FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION...EXPECT ALONG THE 95 CORRIDOR WHERE A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL ALSO
SWITCH TO A MORE NNE ASSOCIATION AS THE THERMAL FIELDS GET BACKED
FROM THE MID-LEVEL WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PUSH
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL OVER THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN NH. FINALLY AS THE
STORM EXITS OUT...A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ALL PRECIP TO
SWITCH TO SNOW AND ALLOW FOR A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS.

OVERALL HAVE EXPANDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS TO ALL OF
SOUTHERN NH...AND MOST OF MASS MINUS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NORTHERN
CT. DECIDED TO GO WITH ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF RI UP TO COASTAL
ESSEX INCLUDING THE CITIES OF PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON. ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS ARE UNDER ADVISORY FOR THE METRO REGIONS...BECAUSE OF THE
HIGH IMPACT THIS EVENT CAN HAVE ON THE PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FELT
THE ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED. ALSO WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE
OR IF TEMPS DROP JUST A DEGREE...ACCUMULATIONS COULD ADD UP. FOR NOW
BELIEVE THAT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT ANOTHER COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SLEET CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WINDS...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF
RI AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WED AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS PROJECTING 45-50 KT JET AT 925 MB. THIS
COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS
PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 11 AM THU.
BECAUSE THE JET DYNAMIC DOES NOT SEEM AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS
HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA. IF THE COASTAL SYSTEM DOES DEEPEN MORE THEN FORECASTED...AND
THE LLJ DOES STRENGTHEN THEN A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY QUICK SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH TO BUILD THE SEAS IS LOW. EVEN THE
DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS ARE SHORT PLUS WITH PRESSURES BEGINNING TO
RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES
INCLUDING EROSION. WORSE CAST...COULD SEE A SURGE NEAR 1.5 FEET
WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR TYPICAL
PRONE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES UP THE COAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. THE FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN SMALL DIVERGENCE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER/FARTHER
EAST WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THE
MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAINTAINS AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE BY
NEXT TUESDAY/DAY SEVEN.

THE DAILIES...

THANKSGIVING DAY... SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRAILS THE
WEDNESDAY STORM...AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP SUPPLY
OF HIGH-RH AIR AND SOME WEAK LIFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.  WE WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PCPN.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S CAPE AND ISLANDS.

WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S EXCEPT LOWER 30S CAPE AND ISLANDS. ANY WET SURFACES FROM THE
DAYTIME WILL REFREEZE IN MOST LOCATIONS RESULTING IN TRICKY POST-
MEAL TRAVEL ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES.

FRIDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE
MORNING WITH LINGERING AIRMASS MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT IF ANY. THIS
COULD HOLD THE CLOUDS IN A LITTLE LONGER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT IT
MOVES OUT QUICKLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SO THE TREND
WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES.  MIXING DEPTH WITH THE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SHALLOW...AROUND 950 MB OR MAYBE A LITTLE
HIGHER.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S AND WINDS GUSTING TO
15-20 KNOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INITIALLY FALL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BUT MOISTURE
FIELDS SUGGEST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY LOW
CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE OCEAN TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
FORECAST TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH 14-23 EXCEPT 24-30
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT SWEEPS NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A 12C INCREASED IN TEMPS ALOFT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING VARIABLE SKY COVER...AS NOTED BY
RH FIELDS ALOFT IN THE MODELS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS TO OUR SURFACE WINDS EACH DAY. BUT
LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL EACH DAY WITH BETTER
MIXING SATURDAY AND LESS SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW THIS FAR OUT IS IN QUESTION BUT THAT/S
OUR BEST SHOT AT THIS TIME. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT TOGETHER WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FROM A 125 KNOT JET...SO WE HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S
COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND
POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...INCREASING SKY COVER BUT MAINLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
INCREASING WINDS AT 2000 FEET...REACHING SOUTHWEST 35-40
KNOTS...WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. SW WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY
VEER DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN NEAR 5 FT.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW RISK OF STORM FORCE GUSTS 21Z
WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES. GALE WARNING IS OUT WITH HIGH END GUSTS ANTICIPATE. CANT
RULE OUT A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MORNING BUT
DIMINISHING. SEAS START THE DAY 5 TO 11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS
AND SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON
SOME OF THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     RIZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252035
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
335 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND
IS ACROSS THE CANAL RIGHT NOW. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY...AS THEY WERE IN THE 50F EARLIER AND NOT HAVE
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF NEAR
20 MPH HAD BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE OBS AS MIXING CONTINUES.
SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL HOLDING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL BE SWEPT
OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SKIES TODAY THANKS TO ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE OUR STORMS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES UP THE COAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. THE FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN SMALL DIVERGENCE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER/FARTHER
EAST WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THE
MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAINTAINS AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE BY
NEXT TUESDAY/DAY SEVEN.

THE DAILIES...

THANKSGIVING DAY... SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRAILS THE
WEDNESDAY STORM...AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP SUPPLY
OF HIGH-RH AIR AND SOME WEAK LIFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.  WE WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PCPN.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S CAPE AND ISLANDS.

WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S
EXCEPT LOWER 30S CAPE AND ISLANDS.  ANY WET SURFACES FROM THE
DAYTIME WILL REFREEZE IN MOST LOCATIONS RESULTING IN TRICKY POST-
MEAL TRAVEL ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES.

FRIDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE
MORNING WITH LINGERING AIRMASS MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT IF ANY. THIS
COULD HOLD THE CLOUDS IN A LITTLE LONGER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT IT
MOVES OUT QUICKLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SO THE TREND
WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES.  MIXING DEPTH WITH THE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SHALLOW...AROUND 950 MB OR MAYBE A LITTLE
HIGHER.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S AND WINDS GUSTING TO
15-20 KNOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INITIALLY FALL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BUT MOISTURE
FIELDS SUGGEST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY LOW
CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE OCEAN TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
FORECAST TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDENCE WITH 14-23 EXCEPT 24-30 ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT SWEEPS NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A 12C INCREASED IN TEMPS ALOFT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING VARIABLE SKY COVER...AS NOTED BY
RH FIELDS ALOFT IN THE MODELS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS TO OUR SURFACE WINDS EACH DAY. BUT
LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL EACH DAY WITH BETTER
MIXING SATURDAY AND LESS SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW THIS FAR OUT IS IN QUESTION BUT THAT/S
OUR BEST SHOT AT THIS TIME. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT TOGETHER WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FROM A 125 KNOT JET...SO WE HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND
POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...INCREASING SKY COVER BUT MAINLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
INCREASING WINDS AT 2000 FEET...REACHING SOUTHWEST 35-40
KNOTS...WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MORNING BUT
DIMINISHING. SEAS START THE DAY 5 TO 11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS
AND SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON
SOME OF THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     RIZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT


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000
FXUS61 KALY 251736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1236 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER TODAY BUT STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER
COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SNOW
STORM. A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW
OCCURRING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON USHERING
IN EVEN COLDER AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT...BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...TACONICS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...ALBANY AND RENSSELAER
COUNTIES...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FORM 7 AM
WEDNESDAY UNTIL 10 AM ON THURSDAY SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

AS FOR THE WINTER STORM WATCH...IT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY FOR SCHOHARIE...MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN
FULTON...SCHENECTADY...SARATOGA...SOUTHEAST WARREN AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS STILL A TOUGH CALL FOR THE LINE BETWEEN
WARNING LEVEL AND ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL. AT LEAST SOME OF THE
WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED A WARNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE REST. NEED TO LOOK THROUGH
MORE OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE AND THE GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER BEFORE MAKING THIS TOUGH CALL.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

HAVE BROUGHT ONSET OF SNOW A BIT EARLY BEGINNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND REACHING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT BY MID MORNING AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
AN HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A MILLER TYPE A STORM AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER OF A SNOW EVENT...HOWEVER
IT IS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME FOR THOSE
TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF IN ONE CAMP AND THE GFS AND GGEM
WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODEL THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR QPF. BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7 OCCURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA BETWEEN 12Z WED AND 00Z THU.
GEFS PLUME FROM 00Z SHOWS A CLUSTERING OF MEMBERS BETWEEN 0.4 AND
0.8 AT KALB WITH RANGE FROM A TENTH ON THE LOW END TO AROUND AN
INCH ON THE HIGH END.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND
CAN BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 6 TO 16 INCHES FORECAST IN THE WARNING AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...9 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA AND 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. TOTAL LIQUID QPF RANGES FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER SOUTHEAST.

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TONIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING...FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH. GIVEN SUCH A FAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON THE
REGION WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND LARGELY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

AN UPPER TROUGH/MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THU
NT INTO FRI...TRIGGERING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS EACH IMPULSE PASSES ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE REGION...PERIODS OF
WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
BEST TIMING AT THIS VANTAGE POINT APPEARING TO BE LATE SAT INTO
SUN...AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO TUE. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND MAINLY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WILL
FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S FOR VALLEYS AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR FRI-MON...THEN POSSIBLY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY TUE. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. W-SW WINDS AROUND 10-12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR
THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOWER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...ESP BY LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
MAY START TO REACH TOWARDS KPOU TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. ONCE
SNOW BEGINS...IT WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VSBY DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FOR LATE TONIGHT...AND BECOME N-NE FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.

SNOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...REACHING KPSF BY 13Z...KALB BY 14Z AND KGFL BY 16Z. ALL
AREAS LOOK TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SNOW BEGINS.  SNOW
WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY SEVERAL HOURS AFTER BEGINNING...BECOMING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED PM-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL
BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>050-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA/11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 251736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1236 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER TODAY BUT STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER
COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SNOW
STORM. A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW
OCCURRING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON USHERING
IN EVEN COLDER AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT...BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...TACONICS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...ALBANY AND RENSSELAER
COUNTIES...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FORM 7 AM
WEDNESDAY UNTIL 10 AM ON THURSDAY SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

AS FOR THE WINTER STORM WATCH...IT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY FOR SCHOHARIE...MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN
FULTON...SCHENECTADY...SARATOGA...SOUTHEAST WARREN AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS STILL A TOUGH CALL FOR THE LINE BETWEEN
WARNING LEVEL AND ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL. AT LEAST SOME OF THE
WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED A WARNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE REST. NEED TO LOOK THROUGH
MORE OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE AND THE GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER BEFORE MAKING THIS TOUGH CALL.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

HAVE BROUGHT ONSET OF SNOW A BIT EARLY BEGINNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND REACHING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT BY MID MORNING AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
AN HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A MILLER TYPE A STORM AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER OF A SNOW EVENT...HOWEVER
IT IS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME FOR THOSE
TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF IN ONE CAMP AND THE GFS AND GGEM
WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODEL THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR QPF. BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7 OCCURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA BETWEEN 12Z WED AND 00Z THU.
GEFS PLUME FROM 00Z SHOWS A CLUSTERING OF MEMBERS BETWEEN 0.4 AND
0.8 AT KALB WITH RANGE FROM A TENTH ON THE LOW END TO AROUND AN
INCH ON THE HIGH END.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND
CAN BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 6 TO 16 INCHES FORECAST IN THE WARNING AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...9 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA AND 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. TOTAL LIQUID QPF RANGES FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER SOUTHEAST.

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TONIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING...FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH. GIVEN SUCH A FAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON THE
REGION WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND LARGELY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

AN UPPER TROUGH/MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THU
NT INTO FRI...TRIGGERING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS EACH IMPULSE PASSES ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE REGION...PERIODS OF
WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
BEST TIMING AT THIS VANTAGE POINT APPEARING TO BE LATE SAT INTO
SUN...AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO TUE. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND MAINLY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WILL
FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S FOR VALLEYS AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR FRI-MON...THEN POSSIBLY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY TUE. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. W-SW WINDS AROUND 10-12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR
THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOWER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...ESP BY LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
MAY START TO REACH TOWARDS KPOU TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. ONCE
SNOW BEGINS...IT WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VSBY DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FOR LATE TONIGHT...AND BECOME N-NE FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.

SNOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...REACHING KPSF BY 13Z...KALB BY 14Z AND KGFL BY 16Z. ALL
AREAS LOOK TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SNOW BEGINS.  SNOW
WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY SEVERAL HOURS AFTER BEGINNING...BECOMING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED PM-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL
BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>050-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA/11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KBOX 251721
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1221 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND
IS ACROSS THE CANAL RIGHT NOW. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY...AS THEY WERE IN THE 50F EARLIER AND NOT HAVE
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF NEAR
20 MPH HAD BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE OBS AS MIXING CONTINUES.
SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL HOLDING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL BE SWEPT
OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SKIES TODAY THANKS TO ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE OUR STORMS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND
POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUS AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251721
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1221 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND
IS ACROSS THE CANAL RIGHT NOW. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY...AS THEY WERE IN THE 50F EARLIER AND NOT HAVE
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF NEAR
20 MPH HAD BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE OBS AS MIXING CONTINUES.
SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL HOLDING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL BE SWEPT
OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SKIES TODAY THANKS TO ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE OUR STORMS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND
POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUS AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251721
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1221 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND
IS ACROSS THE CANAL RIGHT NOW. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY...AS THEY WERE IN THE 50F EARLIER AND NOT HAVE
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF NEAR
20 MPH HAD BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE OBS AS MIXING CONTINUES.
SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL HOLDING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL BE SWEPT
OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SKIES TODAY THANKS TO ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE OUR STORMS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND
POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUS AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251721
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1221 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND
IS ACROSS THE CANAL RIGHT NOW. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY...AS THEY WERE IN THE 50F EARLIER AND NOT HAVE
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF NEAR
20 MPH HAD BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE OBS AS MIXING CONTINUES.
SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL HOLDING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL BE SWEPT
OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SKIES TODAY THANKS TO ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE OUR STORMS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND
POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUS AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251444
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
944 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1000 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT IS EVER SO SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. AND IT WILL TAKE ITS TIME THANKS TO SW FLOW ALOFT.
APPEARS THAT IS SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER THE WESTERN ZONES WITH THE
HOURS. ASIDE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CAPE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
HIGHER MOISTURE SO PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE
CAPE AND THE ISLANDS. ANTICIPATE SOME MIXING TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD AND BEHIND OF THE FRONT SO HAVE UPDATED THE WIND
GUSTS ACCORDINGLY. FINALLY HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON CLOUD COVER AS
A GOOD CIRRUS SHIELD IF OVER THE REGION THANKS TO ADVECTING
MOISTURE ALOFT INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE OUR
STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THE RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE
MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER
INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 00Z THU.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251444
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
944 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1000 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT IS EVER SO SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. AND IT WILL TAKE ITS TIME THANKS TO SW FLOW ALOFT.
APPEARS THAT IS SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER THE WESTERN ZONES WITH THE
HOURS. ASIDE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CAPE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
HIGHER MOISTURE SO PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE
CAPE AND THE ISLANDS. ANTICIPATE SOME MIXING TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD AND BEHIND OF THE FRONT SO HAVE UPDATED THE WIND
GUSTS ACCORDINGLY. FINALLY HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON CLOUD COVER AS
A GOOD CIRRUS SHIELD IF OVER THE REGION THANKS TO ADVECTING
MOISTURE ALOFT INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE OUR
STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THE RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE
MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER
INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 00Z THU.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 251155
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
640 AM UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE THE BACK EDGE OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS FINALLY
STARTING TO SLOWLY SHIFT E ON LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO
NOTING DEWPTS DROPPING TO THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AS FAR S AS KPOU AND KDXR. HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES TO START...THOUGH SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGH THIN
CLOUDS...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY THEN WILL SHIFT E THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE INCREASED THE SW WIND GUSTS WITH GOOD MIXING IN PLACE...SO
PUSHED UP TO AROUND 20 KT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

TEMPS/DEWPTS CONTINUE A FEW DEGS MILDER THAN FORECAST SO HAVE
ADJUSTED TO BRING CURRENT. REMAINING GRIDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE BUT
DID UPDATE THOSE AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THE RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE
MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER
INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 00Z THU.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KALY 251116
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING USHERING
IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TONIGHT. THE
REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED THROUGH THE FA
USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR. IT WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY IN
EASTERN NEW YORK.

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FORM 7 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL
10 AM ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY MID
MORNING AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A MILLER TYPE A STORM AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER OF A SNOW EVENT...HOWEVER
IT IS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME FOR THOSE
TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF IN ONE CAMP AND THE GFS AND GGEM
WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODEL THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR QPF. SNOW RATIOS DURING THE STORM WILL START
AROUND 8 TO 1 AND END AROUND 13 TO 1 AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM TONIGHT. BEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AT H7 OCCURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA BETWEEN
12Z WED AND 00Z THU. GEFS PLUME FROM 00Z SHOWS A CLUSTERING OF
MEMBERS BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.8 AT KALB WITH RANGE FROM A TENTH ON THE
LOW END TO AROUND AN INCH ON THE HIGH END.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND
CAN BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 6 TO 16 INCHES FORECAST IN THE WARNING AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...9 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA AND 3 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. TOTAL LIQUID QPF RANGES FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER SOUTHEAST.

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TONIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING...FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH. GIVEN SUCH A FAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON THE
REGION WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND LARGELY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

AN UPPER TROUGH/MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THU
NT INTO FRI...TRIGGERING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS EACH IMPULSE PASSES ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE REGION...PERIODS OF
WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
BEST TIMING AT THIS VANTAGE POINT APPEARING TO BE LATE SAT INTO
SUN...AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO TUE. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND MAINLY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WILL
FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S FOR VALLEYS AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR FRI-MON...THEN POSSIBLY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY TUE. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
MID MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY A SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES...MAINLY AFTER 12Z/WED.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 10Z/WED...WITH MAINLY
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME
LIGHT SNOW REACHES KALB AFTER 10Z/WED...AND A LIGHT SNOW/RAIN MIX
AT KPOU. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING PRIOR TO 12Z/WED
IS STILL QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT MAINLY WEST WINDS AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25
KT TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z/TUE AT KGFL...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT...WHILE WINDS
AROUND 2000 FT AGL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 35-40 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL
BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>050-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 251116
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING USHERING
IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TONIGHT. THE
REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED THROUGH THE FA
USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR. IT WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY IN
EASTERN NEW YORK.

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FORM 7 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL
10 AM ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY MID
MORNING AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A MILLER TYPE A STORM AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER OF A SNOW EVENT...HOWEVER
IT IS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME FOR THOSE
TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF IN ONE CAMP AND THE GFS AND GGEM
WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODEL THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR QPF. SNOW RATIOS DURING THE STORM WILL START
AROUND 8 TO 1 AND END AROUND 13 TO 1 AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM TONIGHT. BEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AT H7 OCCURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA BETWEEN
12Z WED AND 00Z THU. GEFS PLUME FROM 00Z SHOWS A CLUSTERING OF
MEMBERS BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.8 AT KALB WITH RANGE FROM A TENTH ON THE
LOW END TO AROUND AN INCH ON THE HIGH END.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND
CAN BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 6 TO 16 INCHES FORECAST IN THE WARNING AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...9 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA AND 3 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. TOTAL LIQUID QPF RANGES FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER SOUTHEAST.

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TONIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING...FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH. GIVEN SUCH A FAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON THE
REGION WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND LARGELY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

AN UPPER TROUGH/MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THU
NT INTO FRI...TRIGGERING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS EACH IMPULSE PASSES ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE REGION...PERIODS OF
WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
BEST TIMING AT THIS VANTAGE POINT APPEARING TO BE LATE SAT INTO
SUN...AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO TUE. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND MAINLY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WILL
FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S FOR VALLEYS AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR FRI-MON...THEN POSSIBLY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY TUE. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
MID MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY A SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES...MAINLY AFTER 12Z/WED.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 10Z/WED...WITH MAINLY
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME
LIGHT SNOW REACHES KALB AFTER 10Z/WED...AND A LIGHT SNOW/RAIN MIX
AT KPOU. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING PRIOR TO 12Z/WED
IS STILL QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT MAINLY WEST WINDS AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25
KT TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z/TUE AT KGFL...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT...WHILE WINDS
AROUND 2000 FT AGL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 35-40 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL
BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>050-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 251116
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING USHERING
IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TONIGHT. THE
REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED THROUGH THE FA
USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR. IT WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY IN
EASTERN NEW YORK.

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FORM 7 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL
10 AM ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY MID
MORNING AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A MILLER TYPE A STORM AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER OF A SNOW EVENT...HOWEVER
IT IS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME FOR THOSE
TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF IN ONE CAMP AND THE GFS AND GGEM
WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODEL THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR QPF. SNOW RATIOS DURING THE STORM WILL START
AROUND 8 TO 1 AND END AROUND 13 TO 1 AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM TONIGHT. BEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AT H7 OCCURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA BETWEEN
12Z WED AND 00Z THU. GEFS PLUME FROM 00Z SHOWS A CLUSTERING OF
MEMBERS BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.8 AT KALB WITH RANGE FROM A TENTH ON THE
LOW END TO AROUND AN INCH ON THE HIGH END.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND
CAN BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 6 TO 16 INCHES FORECAST IN THE WARNING AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...9 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA AND 3 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. TOTAL LIQUID QPF RANGES FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER SOUTHEAST.

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TONIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING...FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH. GIVEN SUCH A FAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON THE
REGION WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND LARGELY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

AN UPPER TROUGH/MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THU
NT INTO FRI...TRIGGERING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS EACH IMPULSE PASSES ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE REGION...PERIODS OF
WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
BEST TIMING AT THIS VANTAGE POINT APPEARING TO BE LATE SAT INTO
SUN...AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO TUE. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND MAINLY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WILL
FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S FOR VALLEYS AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR FRI-MON...THEN POSSIBLY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY TUE. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
MID MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY A SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES...MAINLY AFTER 12Z/WED.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 10Z/WED...WITH MAINLY
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME
LIGHT SNOW REACHES KALB AFTER 10Z/WED...AND A LIGHT SNOW/RAIN MIX
AT KPOU. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING PRIOR TO 12Z/WED
IS STILL QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT MAINLY WEST WINDS AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25
KT TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z/TUE AT KGFL...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT...WHILE WINDS
AROUND 2000 FT AGL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 35-40 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL
BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>050-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 251116
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING USHERING
IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TONIGHT. THE
REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED THROUGH THE FA
USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR. IT WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY IN
EASTERN NEW YORK.

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FORM 7 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL
10 AM ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY MID
MORNING AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A MILLER TYPE A STORM AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER OF A SNOW EVENT...HOWEVER
IT IS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME FOR THOSE
TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF IN ONE CAMP AND THE GFS AND GGEM
WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODEL THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR QPF. SNOW RATIOS DURING THE STORM WILL START
AROUND 8 TO 1 AND END AROUND 13 TO 1 AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM TONIGHT. BEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AT H7 OCCURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA BETWEEN
12Z WED AND 00Z THU. GEFS PLUME FROM 00Z SHOWS A CLUSTERING OF
MEMBERS BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.8 AT KALB WITH RANGE FROM A TENTH ON THE
LOW END TO AROUND AN INCH ON THE HIGH END.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND
CAN BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 6 TO 16 INCHES FORECAST IN THE WARNING AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...9 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA AND 3 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. TOTAL LIQUID QPF RANGES FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER SOUTHEAST.

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TONIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING...FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH. GIVEN SUCH A FAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON THE
REGION WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND LARGELY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

AN UPPER TROUGH/MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THU
NT INTO FRI...TRIGGERING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS EACH IMPULSE PASSES ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE REGION...PERIODS OF
WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
BEST TIMING AT THIS VANTAGE POINT APPEARING TO BE LATE SAT INTO
SUN...AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO TUE. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND MAINLY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WILL
FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S FOR VALLEYS AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR FRI-MON...THEN POSSIBLY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY TUE. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
MID MORNING...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY A SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES...MAINLY AFTER 12Z/WED.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 10Z/WED...WITH MAINLY
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME
LIGHT SNOW REACHES KALB AFTER 10Z/WED...AND A LIGHT SNOW/RAIN MIX
AT KPOU. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING PRIOR TO 12Z/WED
IS STILL QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT MAINLY WEST WINDS AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25
KT TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z/TUE AT KGFL...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT...WHILE WINDS
AROUND 2000 FT AGL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 35-40 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL
BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>050-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 251100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
600 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING USHERING
IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TONIGHT. THE
REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED THROUGH THE FA
USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR. IT WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY IN
EASTERN NEW YORK.

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FORM 7 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL
10 AM ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY MID
MORNING AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A MILLER TYPE A STORM AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER OF A SNOW EVENT...HOWEVER
IT IS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME FOR THOSE
TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF IN ONE CAMP AND THE GFS AND GGEM
WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODEL THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR QPF. SNOW RATIOS DURING THE STORM WILL START
AROUND 8 TO 1 AND END AROUND 13 TO 1 AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM TONIGHT. BEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AT H7 OCCURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA BETWEEN
12Z WED AND 00Z THU. GEFS PLUME FROM 00Z SHOWS A CLUSTERING OF
MEMBERS BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.8 AT KALB WITH RANGE FROM A TENTH ON THE
LOW END TO AROUND AN INCH ON THE HIGH END.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND
CAN BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 6 TO 16 INCHES FORECAST IN THE WARNING AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...9 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA AND 3 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. TOTAL LIQUID QPF RANGES FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER SOUTHEAST.

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TONIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING...FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH. GIVEN SUCH A FAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON THE
REGION WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND LARGELY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

AN UPPER TROUGH/MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THU
NT INTO FRI...TRIGGERING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS EACH IMPULSE PASSES ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE REGION...PERIODS OF
WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
BEST TIMING AT THIS VANTAGE POINT APPEARING TO BE LATE SAT INTO
SUN...AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO TUE. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND MAINLY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WILL
FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S FOR VALLEYS AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR FRI-MON...THEN POSSIBLY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY TUE. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...ONLY A SUBTLE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/WED...WITH MAINLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 8-12 KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE INTO
THE WEST BY DAYBREAK AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. SOME BRIEF GUSTS OF UP TO
20-25 KT COULD OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY
WEST WINDS AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z-13Z/TUE...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
35-45 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL
BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>050-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 251100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
600 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING USHERING
IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TONIGHT. THE
REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED THROUGH THE FA
USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR. IT WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY IN
EASTERN NEW YORK.

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FORM 7 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL
10 AM ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY MID
MORNING AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A MILLER TYPE A STORM AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER OF A SNOW EVENT...HOWEVER
IT IS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME FOR THOSE
TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF IN ONE CAMP AND THE GFS AND GGEM
WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODEL THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR QPF. SNOW RATIOS DURING THE STORM WILL START
AROUND 8 TO 1 AND END AROUND 13 TO 1 AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM TONIGHT. BEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AT H7 OCCURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA BETWEEN
12Z WED AND 00Z THU. GEFS PLUME FROM 00Z SHOWS A CLUSTERING OF
MEMBERS BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.8 AT KALB WITH RANGE FROM A TENTH ON THE
LOW END TO AROUND AN INCH ON THE HIGH END.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND
CAN BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 6 TO 16 INCHES FORECAST IN THE WARNING AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...9 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA AND 3 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. TOTAL LIQUID QPF RANGES FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER SOUTHEAST.

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TONIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING...FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH. GIVEN SUCH A FAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON THE
REGION WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND LARGELY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

AN UPPER TROUGH/MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THU
NT INTO FRI...TRIGGERING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS EACH IMPULSE PASSES ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE REGION...PERIODS OF
WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
BEST TIMING AT THIS VANTAGE POINT APPEARING TO BE LATE SAT INTO
SUN...AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO TUE. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND MAINLY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WILL
FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S FOR VALLEYS AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR FRI-MON...THEN POSSIBLY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY TUE. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...ONLY A SUBTLE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/WED...WITH MAINLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 8-12 KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE INTO
THE WEST BY DAYBREAK AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. SOME BRIEF GUSTS OF UP TO
20-25 KT COULD OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY
WEST WINDS AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z-13Z/TUE...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
35-45 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL
BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>050-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 251100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
600 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING USHERING
IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TONIGHT. THE
REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED THROUGH THE FA
USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR. IT WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY IN
EASTERN NEW YORK.

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FORM 7 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL
10 AM ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY MID
MORNING AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A MILLER TYPE A STORM AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER OF A SNOW EVENT...HOWEVER
IT IS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME FOR THOSE
TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF IN ONE CAMP AND THE GFS AND GGEM
WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODEL THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR QPF. SNOW RATIOS DURING THE STORM WILL START
AROUND 8 TO 1 AND END AROUND 13 TO 1 AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM TONIGHT. BEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AT H7 OCCURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA BETWEEN
12Z WED AND 00Z THU. GEFS PLUME FROM 00Z SHOWS A CLUSTERING OF
MEMBERS BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.8 AT KALB WITH RANGE FROM A TENTH ON THE
LOW END TO AROUND AN INCH ON THE HIGH END.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND
CAN BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 6 TO 16 INCHES FORECAST IN THE WARNING AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...9 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA AND 3 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. TOTAL LIQUID QPF RANGES FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER SOUTHEAST.

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TONIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING...FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH. GIVEN SUCH A FAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON THE
REGION WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND LARGELY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

AN UPPER TROUGH/MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THU
NT INTO FRI...TRIGGERING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS EACH IMPULSE PASSES ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE REGION...PERIODS OF
WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
BEST TIMING AT THIS VANTAGE POINT APPEARING TO BE LATE SAT INTO
SUN...AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO TUE. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND MAINLY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WILL
FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S FOR VALLEYS AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR FRI-MON...THEN POSSIBLY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY TUE. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...ONLY A SUBTLE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/WED...WITH MAINLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 8-12 KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE INTO
THE WEST BY DAYBREAK AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. SOME BRIEF GUSTS OF UP TO
20-25 KT COULD OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY
WEST WINDS AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z-13Z/TUE...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
35-45 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL
BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>050-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 251100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
600 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING USHERING
IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TONIGHT. THE
REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED THROUGH THE FA
USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR. IT WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY IN
EASTERN NEW YORK.

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FORM 7 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL
10 AM ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY MID
MORNING AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A MILLER TYPE A STORM AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER OF A SNOW EVENT...HOWEVER
IT IS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME FOR THOSE
TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF IN ONE CAMP AND THE GFS AND GGEM
WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODEL THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR QPF. SNOW RATIOS DURING THE STORM WILL START
AROUND 8 TO 1 AND END AROUND 13 TO 1 AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM TONIGHT. BEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AT H7 OCCURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA BETWEEN
12Z WED AND 00Z THU. GEFS PLUME FROM 00Z SHOWS A CLUSTERING OF
MEMBERS BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.8 AT KALB WITH RANGE FROM A TENTH ON THE
LOW END TO AROUND AN INCH ON THE HIGH END.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND
CAN BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 6 TO 16 INCHES FORECAST IN THE WARNING AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...9 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA AND 3 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. TOTAL LIQUID QPF RANGES FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER SOUTHEAST.

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TONIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING...FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH. GIVEN SUCH A FAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON THE
REGION WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND LARGELY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

AN UPPER TROUGH/MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THU
NT INTO FRI...TRIGGERING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS EACH IMPULSE PASSES ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE REGION...PERIODS OF
WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
BEST TIMING AT THIS VANTAGE POINT APPEARING TO BE LATE SAT INTO
SUN...AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO TUE. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND MAINLY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WILL
FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S FOR VALLEYS AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR FRI-MON...THEN POSSIBLY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY TUE. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...ONLY A SUBTLE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/WED...WITH MAINLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 8-12 KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE INTO
THE WEST BY DAYBREAK AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. SOME BRIEF GUSTS OF UP TO
20-25 KT COULD OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY
WEST WINDS AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z-13Z/TUE...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
35-45 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL
BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>050-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 251100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
600 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING USHERING
IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TONIGHT. THE
REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED THROUGH THE FA
USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR. IT WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY IN
EASTERN NEW YORK.

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FORM 7 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL
10 AM ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY MID
MORNING AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A MILLER TYPE A STORM AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER OF A SNOW EVENT...HOWEVER
IT IS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME FOR THOSE
TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF IN ONE CAMP AND THE GFS AND GGEM
WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODEL THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR QPF. SNOW RATIOS DURING THE STORM WILL START
AROUND 8 TO 1 AND END AROUND 13 TO 1 AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM TONIGHT. BEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AT H7 OCCURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA BETWEEN
12Z WED AND 00Z THU. GEFS PLUME FROM 00Z SHOWS A CLUSTERING OF
MEMBERS BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.8 AT KALB WITH RANGE FROM A TENTH ON THE
LOW END TO AROUND AN INCH ON THE HIGH END.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND
CAN BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 6 TO 16 INCHES FORECAST IN THE WARNING AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...9 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA AND 3 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. TOTAL LIQUID QPF RANGES FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER SOUTHEAST.

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TONIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING...FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH. GIVEN SUCH A FAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON THE
REGION WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND LARGELY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

AN UPPER TROUGH/MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THU
NT INTO FRI...TRIGGERING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS EACH IMPULSE PASSES ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE REGION...PERIODS OF
WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
BEST TIMING AT THIS VANTAGE POINT APPEARING TO BE LATE SAT INTO
SUN...AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO TUE. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND MAINLY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WILL
FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S FOR VALLEYS AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR FRI-MON...THEN POSSIBLY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY TUE. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...ONLY A SUBTLE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/WED...WITH MAINLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 8-12 KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE INTO
THE WEST BY DAYBREAK AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. SOME BRIEF GUSTS OF UP TO
20-25 KT COULD OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY
WEST WINDS AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z-13Z/TUE...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
35-45 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL
BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>050-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 251100
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
600 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING USHERING
IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TONIGHT. THE
REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED THROUGH THE FA
USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR. IT WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY IN
EASTERN NEW YORK.

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FORM 7 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL
10 AM ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY MID
MORNING AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A MILLER TYPE A STORM AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER OF A SNOW EVENT...HOWEVER
IT IS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME FOR THOSE
TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF IN ONE CAMP AND THE GFS AND GGEM
WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODEL THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR QPF. SNOW RATIOS DURING THE STORM WILL START
AROUND 8 TO 1 AND END AROUND 13 TO 1 AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM TONIGHT. BEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AT H7 OCCURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA BETWEEN
12Z WED AND 00Z THU. GEFS PLUME FROM 00Z SHOWS A CLUSTERING OF
MEMBERS BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.8 AT KALB WITH RANGE FROM A TENTH ON THE
LOW END TO AROUND AN INCH ON THE HIGH END.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND
CAN BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 6 TO 16 INCHES FORECAST IN THE WARNING AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...9 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA AND 3 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. TOTAL LIQUID QPF RANGES FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER SOUTHEAST.

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TONIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING...FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH. GIVEN SUCH A FAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON THE
REGION WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND LARGELY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

AN UPPER TROUGH/MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THU
NT INTO FRI...TRIGGERING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS EACH IMPULSE PASSES ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE REGION...PERIODS OF
WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
BEST TIMING AT THIS VANTAGE POINT APPEARING TO BE LATE SAT INTO
SUN...AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO TUE. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND MAINLY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WILL
FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S FOR VALLEYS AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR FRI-MON...THEN POSSIBLY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY TUE. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...ONLY A SUBTLE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/WED...WITH MAINLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 8-12 KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE INTO
THE WEST BY DAYBREAK AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. SOME BRIEF GUSTS OF UP TO
20-25 KT COULD OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY
WEST WINDS AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z-13Z/TUE...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
35-45 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL
BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>050-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KBOX 251005
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
505 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE HUNG UP ACROSS W
VT/UPSTATE NY AT 09Z. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S REGIONWIDE.
NOTING A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH 64 DEGS AT KFIT AT
09Z. DEWPTS ALSO REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 50S INTO CENTRAL
NH...THOUGH STARTING TO SEE LOWER DEWPTS INTO CENTRAL VT AND
UPSTATE NY /KALB REPORTED 52 DEGS AT 08Z...DOWN TO 47 AT 09Z/. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN ALONG THE S COAST THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN
IMPROVING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO W DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS E. WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 10Z-11Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER
INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 00Z THU.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 251005
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
505 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE HUNG UP ACROSS W
VT/UPSTATE NY AT 09Z. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S REGIONWIDE.
NOTING A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH 64 DEGS AT KFIT AT
09Z. DEWPTS ALSO REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 50S INTO CENTRAL
NH...THOUGH STARTING TO SEE LOWER DEWPTS INTO CENTRAL VT AND
UPSTATE NY /KALB REPORTED 52 DEGS AT 08Z...DOWN TO 47 AT 09Z/. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN ALONG THE S COAST THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN
IMPROVING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO W DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS E. WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 10Z-11Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER
INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 00Z THU.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 251005
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
505 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE HUNG UP ACROSS W
VT/UPSTATE NY AT 09Z. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S REGIONWIDE.
NOTING A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH 64 DEGS AT KFIT AT
09Z. DEWPTS ALSO REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 50S INTO CENTRAL
NH...THOUGH STARTING TO SEE LOWER DEWPTS INTO CENTRAL VT AND
UPSTATE NY /KALB REPORTED 52 DEGS AT 08Z...DOWN TO 47 AT 09Z/. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN ALONG THE S COAST THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN
IMPROVING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO W DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS E. WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 10Z-11Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER
INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 00Z THU.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 251005
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
505 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE HUNG UP ACROSS W
VT/UPSTATE NY AT 09Z. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S REGIONWIDE.
NOTING A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH 64 DEGS AT KFIT AT
09Z. DEWPTS ALSO REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 50S INTO CENTRAL
NH...THOUGH STARTING TO SEE LOWER DEWPTS INTO CENTRAL VT AND
UPSTATE NY /KALB REPORTED 52 DEGS AT 08Z...DOWN TO 47 AT 09Z/. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN ALONG THE S COAST THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN
IMPROVING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO W DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS E. WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 10Z-11Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER
INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 00Z THU.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 250954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
454 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MILD
CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST
EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL HEAD TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH COLDER CONDITIONS AND
LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE HUNG UP ACROSS W
VT/UPSTATE NY AT 09Z. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S REGIONWIDE.
NOTING A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH 64 DEGS AT KFIT AT
09Z. DEWPTS ALSO REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 50S INTO CENTRAL
NH...THOUGH STARTING TO SEE LOWER DEWPTS INTO CENTRAL VT AND
UPSTATE NY /KALB REPORTED 52 DEGS AT 08Z...DOWN TO 47 AT 09Z/. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN ALONG THE S COAST THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN
IMPROVING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO W DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS E. WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 10Z-11Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
454 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MILD
CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST
EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL HEAD TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH COLDER CONDITIONS AND
LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE HUNG UP ACROSS W
VT/UPSTATE NY AT 09Z. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S REGIONWIDE.
NOTING A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH 64 DEGS AT KFIT AT
09Z. DEWPTS ALSO REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 50S INTO CENTRAL
NH...THOUGH STARTING TO SEE LOWER DEWPTS INTO CENTRAL VT AND
UPSTATE NY /KALB REPORTED 52 DEGS AT 08Z...DOWN TO 47 AT 09Z/. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN ALONG THE S COAST THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN
IMPROVING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO W DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS E. WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 10Z-11Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
454 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MILD
CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST
EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL HEAD TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH COLDER CONDITIONS AND
LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE HUNG UP ACROSS W
VT/UPSTATE NY AT 09Z. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S REGIONWIDE.
NOTING A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH 64 DEGS AT KFIT AT
09Z. DEWPTS ALSO REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 50S INTO CENTRAL
NH...THOUGH STARTING TO SEE LOWER DEWPTS INTO CENTRAL VT AND
UPSTATE NY /KALB REPORTED 52 DEGS AT 08Z...DOWN TO 47 AT 09Z/. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN ALONG THE S COAST THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN
IMPROVING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO W DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS E. WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 10Z-11Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
454 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MILD
CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST
EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL HEAD TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH COLDER CONDITIONS AND
LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE HUNG UP ACROSS W
VT/UPSTATE NY AT 09Z. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S REGIONWIDE.
NOTING A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH 64 DEGS AT KFIT AT
09Z. DEWPTS ALSO REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 50S INTO CENTRAL
NH...THOUGH STARTING TO SEE LOWER DEWPTS INTO CENTRAL VT AND
UPSTATE NY /KALB REPORTED 52 DEGS AT 08Z...DOWN TO 47 AT 09Z/. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN ALONG THE S COAST THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN
IMPROVING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO W DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS E. WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 10Z-11Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KALY 250919
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING USHERING
IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TONIGHT. THE
REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR. IT WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY IN
EASTERN NEW YORK.

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FORM 7 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL
10 AM ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY MID
MORNING AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A MILLER TYPE A STORM AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER OF A SNOW EVENT...HOWEVER
IT IS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME FOR THOSE
TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF IN ONE CAMP AND THE GFS AND GGEM
WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODEL THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR QPF. SNOW RATIOS DURING THE STORM WILL START
AROUND 8 TO 1 AND END AROUND 13 TO 1 AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM TONIGHT. BEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AT H7 OCCURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA BETWEEN
12Z WED AND 00Z THU. GEFS PLUME FROM 00Z SHOWS A CLUSTERING OF
MEMBERS BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.8 AT KALB WITH RANGE FROM A TENTH ON THE
LOW END TO AROUND AN INCH ON THE HIGH END.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND
CAN BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 6 TO 16 INCHES FORECAST IN THE WARNING AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...9 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA AND 3 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. TOTAL LIQUID QPF RANGES FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER SOUTHEAST.

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TONIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING...FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH. GIVEN SUCH A FAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON THE
REGION WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND LARGELY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

AN UPPER TROUGH/MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THU
NT INTO FRI...TRIGGERING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS EACH IMPULSE PASSES ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE REGION...PERIODS OF
WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
BEST TIMING AT THIS VANTAGE POINT APPEARING TO BE LATE SAT INTO
SUN...AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO TUE. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND MAINLY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WILL
FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S FOR VALLEYS AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR FRI-MON...THEN POSSIBLY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY TUE. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...ONLY A SUBTLE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/WED...WITH MAINLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 8-12 KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE INTO
THE WEST BY DAYBREAK AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. SOME BRIEF GUSTS OF UP TO
20-25 KT COULD OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY
WEST WINDS AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z-13Z/TUE...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
35-45 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL
BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>050-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 250919
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING USHERING
IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TONIGHT. THE
REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR. IT WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY IN
EASTERN NEW YORK.

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FORM 7 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL
10 AM ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY MID
MORNING AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A MILLER TYPE A STORM AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER OF A SNOW EVENT...HOWEVER
IT IS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME FOR THOSE
TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF IN ONE CAMP AND THE GFS AND GGEM
WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODEL THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR QPF. SNOW RATIOS DURING THE STORM WILL START
AROUND 8 TO 1 AND END AROUND 13 TO 1 AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM TONIGHT. BEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AT H7 OCCURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA BETWEEN
12Z WED AND 00Z THU. GEFS PLUME FROM 00Z SHOWS A CLUSTERING OF
MEMBERS BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.8 AT KALB WITH RANGE FROM A TENTH ON THE
LOW END TO AROUND AN INCH ON THE HIGH END.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND
CAN BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 6 TO 16 INCHES FORECAST IN THE WARNING AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...9 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA AND 3 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. TOTAL LIQUID QPF RANGES FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER SOUTHEAST.

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TONIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING...FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH. GIVEN SUCH A FAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON THE
REGION WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND LARGELY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

AN UPPER TROUGH/MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THU
NT INTO FRI...TRIGGERING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS EACH IMPULSE PASSES ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE REGION...PERIODS OF
WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
BEST TIMING AT THIS VANTAGE POINT APPEARING TO BE LATE SAT INTO
SUN...AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO TUE. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND MAINLY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WILL
FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S FOR VALLEYS AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR FRI-MON...THEN POSSIBLY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY TUE. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...ONLY A SUBTLE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/WED...WITH MAINLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 8-12 KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE INTO
THE WEST BY DAYBREAK AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. SOME BRIEF GUSTS OF UP TO
20-25 KT COULD OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY
WEST WINDS AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z-13Z/TUE...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
35-45 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL
BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>050-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 250838
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
338 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING USHERING
IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TONIGHT. THE
REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR. IT WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO MID 50S BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY IN
EASTERN NEW YORK.

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FORM 7 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL
10 AM ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY MID
MORNING AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.


THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A MILLER TYPE A STORM AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER OF A SNOW EVENT...HOWEVER
IT IS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME FOR THOSE
TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF IN ONE CAMP AND THE GFS AND GGEM
WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODEL THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR QPF. SNOW RATIOS DURING THE STORM WILL START
AROUND 8 TO 1 AND END AROUND 13 TO 1 AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM TONIGHT. BEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AT H7 OCCURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA BETWEEN
12Z WED AND 00Z THU. GEFS PLUME FROM 00Z SHOWS A CLUSTERING OF
MEMBERS BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.8 AT KALB WITH RANGE FROM A TENTH ON THE
LOW END TO AROUND AN INCH ON THE HIGH END.


OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND CAN
BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 6 TO 16 INCHES FORECAST IN THE WARNING AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...9 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA AND 3 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. TOTAL LIQUID QPF RANGES FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER SOUTHEAST.

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TONIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING...FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH. GIVEN SUCH A FAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON THE
REGION WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND LARGELY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

AN UPPER TROUGH/MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THU
NT INTO FRI...TRIGGERING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS EACH IMPULSE PASSES ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE REGION...PERIODS OF
WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
BEST TIMING AT THIS VANTAGE POINT APPEARING TO BE LATE SAT INTO
SUN...AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO TUE. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND MAINLY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WILL
FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S FOR VALLEYS AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR FRI-MON...THEN POSSIBLY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY TUE. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...ONLY A SUBTLE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/WED...WITH MAINLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 8-12 KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE INTO
THE WEST BY DAYBREAK AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. SOME BRIEF GUSTS OF UP TO
20-25 KT COULD OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY
WEST WINDS AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z-13Z/TUE...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
35-45 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL
BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>050-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 250838
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
338 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING USHERING
IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TONIGHT. THE
REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR. IT WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO MID 50S BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY IN
EASTERN NEW YORK.

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FORM 7 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL
10 AM ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY MID
MORNING AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.


THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A MILLER TYPE A STORM AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER OF A SNOW EVENT...HOWEVER
IT IS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME FOR THOSE
TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF IN ONE CAMP AND THE GFS AND GGEM
WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODEL THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR QPF. SNOW RATIOS DURING THE STORM WILL START
AROUND 8 TO 1 AND END AROUND 13 TO 1 AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM TONIGHT. BEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AT H7 OCCURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA BETWEEN
12Z WED AND 00Z THU. GEFS PLUME FROM 00Z SHOWS A CLUSTERING OF
MEMBERS BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.8 AT KALB WITH RANGE FROM A TENTH ON THE
LOW END TO AROUND AN INCH ON THE HIGH END.


OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND CAN
BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 6 TO 16 INCHES FORECAST IN THE WARNING AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...9 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA AND 3 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. TOTAL LIQUID QPF RANGES FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER SOUTHEAST.

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TONIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING...FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH. GIVEN SUCH A FAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON THE
REGION WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND LARGELY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

AN UPPER TROUGH/MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THU
NT INTO FRI...TRIGGERING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS EACH IMPULSE PASSES ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE REGION...PERIODS OF
WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
BEST TIMING AT THIS VANTAGE POINT APPEARING TO BE LATE SAT INTO
SUN...AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO TUE. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND MAINLY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WILL
FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S FOR VALLEYS AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR FRI-MON...THEN POSSIBLY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY TUE. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...ONLY A SUBTLE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/WED...WITH MAINLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 8-12 KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE INTO
THE WEST BY DAYBREAK AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. SOME BRIEF GUSTS OF UP TO
20-25 KT COULD OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY
WEST WINDS AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z-13Z/TUE...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
35-45 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL
BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>050-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 250838
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
338 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING USHERING
IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TONIGHT. THE
REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR. IT WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO MID 50S BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY IN
EASTERN NEW YORK.

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FORM 7 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL
10 AM ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY MID
MORNING AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.


THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A MILLER TYPE A STORM AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER OF A SNOW EVENT...HOWEVER
IT IS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME FOR THOSE
TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF IN ONE CAMP AND THE GFS AND GGEM
WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODEL THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR QPF. SNOW RATIOS DURING THE STORM WILL START
AROUND 8 TO 1 AND END AROUND 13 TO 1 AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM TONIGHT. BEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AT H7 OCCURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA BETWEEN
12Z WED AND 00Z THU. GEFS PLUME FROM 00Z SHOWS A CLUSTERING OF
MEMBERS BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.8 AT KALB WITH RANGE FROM A TENTH ON THE
LOW END TO AROUND AN INCH ON THE HIGH END.


OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND CAN
BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 6 TO 16 INCHES FORECAST IN THE WARNING AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...9 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA AND 3 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. TOTAL LIQUID QPF RANGES FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER SOUTHEAST.

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TONIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING...FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH. GIVEN SUCH A FAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON THE
REGION WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND LARGELY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

AN UPPER TROUGH/MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THU
NT INTO FRI...TRIGGERING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS EACH IMPULSE PASSES ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE REGION...PERIODS OF
WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
BEST TIMING AT THIS VANTAGE POINT APPEARING TO BE LATE SAT INTO
SUN...AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO TUE. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND MAINLY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WILL
FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S FOR VALLEYS AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR FRI-MON...THEN POSSIBLY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY TUE. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...ONLY A SUBTLE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/WED...WITH MAINLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 8-12 KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE INTO
THE WEST BY DAYBREAK AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. SOME BRIEF GUSTS OF UP TO
20-25 KT COULD OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY
WEST WINDS AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z-13Z/TUE...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
35-45 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL
BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>050-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 250838
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
338 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING USHERING
IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TONIGHT. THE
REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
USHERING IN COOLER AIR AND A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN EVEN COLDER AIR. IT WILL BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO MID 50S BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY IN
EASTERN NEW YORK.

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY FOR THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FORM 7 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL
10 AM ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY MID
MORNING AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.


THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A MILLER TYPE A STORM AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER OF A SNOW EVENT...HOWEVER
IT IS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME FOR THOSE
TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF IN ONE CAMP AND THE GFS AND GGEM
WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODEL THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR QPF. SNOW RATIOS DURING THE STORM WILL START
AROUND 8 TO 1 AND END AROUND 13 TO 1 AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT
WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM TONIGHT. BEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AT H7 OCCURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA BETWEEN
12Z WED AND 00Z THU. GEFS PLUME FROM 00Z SHOWS A CLUSTERING OF
MEMBERS BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.8 AT KALB WITH RANGE FROM A TENTH ON THE
LOW END TO AROUND AN INCH ON THE HIGH END.


OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND CAN
BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 6 TO 16 INCHES FORECAST IN THE WARNING AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...9 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA AND 3 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. TOTAL LIQUID QPF RANGES FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER SOUTHEAST.

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TONIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING...FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH. GIVEN SUCH A FAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON THE
REGION WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND LARGELY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

AN UPPER TROUGH/MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THU
NT INTO FRI...TRIGGERING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS EACH IMPULSE PASSES ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE REGION...PERIODS OF
WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
BEST TIMING AT THIS VANTAGE POINT APPEARING TO BE LATE SAT INTO
SUN...AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO TUE. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND MAINLY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WILL
FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S FOR VALLEYS AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR FRI-MON...THEN POSSIBLY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY TUE. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...ONLY A SUBTLE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/WED...WITH MAINLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 8-12 KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE INTO
THE WEST BY DAYBREAK AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. SOME BRIEF GUSTS OF UP TO
20-25 KT COULD OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY
WEST WINDS AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z-13Z/TUE...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
35-45 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL
BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>050-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KBOX 250706
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS.
NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

245 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY SPIKED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MA ON STEADY SW WINDS.
ALONG THE S COAST...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS MOVED ASHORE ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOTED A GUST UP TO 30
KT AT 04Z AT KFMH. RATHER SHARP DEWPT DROP BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL NY EVEN WITH WINDS REMAINING FROM THE SW.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THE SW WIND
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WHEN
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION CONSIDERING THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH TO THE W AND PERSISTENT SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
DEWPT DROPS MOVING E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

HAVE UPDATED TEMPS/DEWPTS TO KEEP THEM MILDER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA...WHICH MAY MOVE AS FAR N AS
KPVD-KTAN-KPYM FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. SW WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
10Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY SEE PATCHY CLOUDS
AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE MA. SW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW PROB OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z ALONG S COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY AT
10 PM AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. WINDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW
GALE ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE AGAIN WED. HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR THOSE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO SW. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250706
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS.
NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

245 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY SPIKED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MA ON STEADY SW WINDS.
ALONG THE S COAST...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS MOVED ASHORE ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOTED A GUST UP TO 30
KT AT 04Z AT KFMH. RATHER SHARP DEWPT DROP BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL NY EVEN WITH WINDS REMAINING FROM THE SW.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THE SW WIND
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WHEN
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION CONSIDERING THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH TO THE W AND PERSISTENT SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
DEWPT DROPS MOVING E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

HAVE UPDATED TEMPS/DEWPTS TO KEEP THEM MILDER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA...WHICH MAY MOVE AS FAR N AS
KPVD-KTAN-KPYM FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. SW WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
10Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY SEE PATCHY CLOUDS
AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE MA. SW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW PROB OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z ALONG S COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY AT
10 PM AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. WINDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW
GALE ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE AGAIN WED. HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR THOSE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO SW. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250706
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS.
NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

245 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY SPIKED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MA ON STEADY SW WINDS.
ALONG THE S COAST...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS MOVED ASHORE ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOTED A GUST UP TO 30
KT AT 04Z AT KFMH. RATHER SHARP DEWPT DROP BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL NY EVEN WITH WINDS REMAINING FROM THE SW.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THE SW WIND
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WHEN
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION CONSIDERING THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH TO THE W AND PERSISTENT SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
DEWPT DROPS MOVING E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

HAVE UPDATED TEMPS/DEWPTS TO KEEP THEM MILDER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA...WHICH MAY MOVE AS FAR N AS
KPVD-KTAN-KPYM FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. SW WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
10Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY SEE PATCHY CLOUDS
AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE MA. SW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW PROB OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z ALONG S COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY AT
10 PM AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. WINDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW
GALE ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE AGAIN WED. HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR THOSE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO SW. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250706
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS.
NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

245 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY SPIKED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MA ON STEADY SW WINDS.
ALONG THE S COAST...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS MOVED ASHORE ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOTED A GUST UP TO 30
KT AT 04Z AT KFMH. RATHER SHARP DEWPT DROP BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL NY EVEN WITH WINDS REMAINING FROM THE SW.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THE SW WIND
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WHEN
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION CONSIDERING THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH TO THE W AND PERSISTENT SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
DEWPT DROPS MOVING E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

HAVE UPDATED TEMPS/DEWPTS TO KEEP THEM MILDER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA...WHICH MAY MOVE AS FAR N AS
KPVD-KTAN-KPYM FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. SW WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
10Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY SEE PATCHY CLOUDS
AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE MA. SW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW PROB OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z ALONG S COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY AT
10 PM AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. WINDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW
GALE ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE AGAIN WED. HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR THOSE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO SW. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KALY 250532
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE
THE HUDSON VALLEY. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR IS STILL
WELL BACK TO THE WEST. IT WILL STILL BE A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE
NOVEMBER WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH 30S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

FOR TUESDAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS DIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS QUICK FLOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR COLDER AIR TO BE USHERED IN.
WILL HAVE WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO MID 50S BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING (MONDAY EVENING). IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH
WILL KEEP THE STORM PROGRESSIVE. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST...THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HAVE A TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF GFS AND NAM...AND A BIT SOUTH IN
TIMING PASSING THE LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF TRACK WITH IN THE SPREAD OF THE GFSENSEMBLES
MEMBERS. THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A BIT EASTWARD. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES MESOSCALE BANDING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND CAN
BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 10 TO 14 INCHES FORECAST FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND
A PORTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AMOUNTS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AROUND 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WITH LESS THAN 7 INCHES ACROSS HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES
(THAT`S WHY THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH).

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...ONLY A SUBTLE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/WED...WITH MAINLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 8-12 KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE INTO
THE WEST BY DAYBREAK AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. SOME BRIEF GUSTS OF UP TO
20-25 KT COULD OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY
WEST WINDS AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z-13Z/TUE...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
35-45 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 250532
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE
THE HUDSON VALLEY. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR IS STILL
WELL BACK TO THE WEST. IT WILL STILL BE A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE
NOVEMBER WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH 30S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

FOR TUESDAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS DIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS QUICK FLOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR COLDER AIR TO BE USHERED IN.
WILL HAVE WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO MID 50S BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING (MONDAY EVENING). IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH
WILL KEEP THE STORM PROGRESSIVE. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST...THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HAVE A TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF GFS AND NAM...AND A BIT SOUTH IN
TIMING PASSING THE LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF TRACK WITH IN THE SPREAD OF THE GFSENSEMBLES
MEMBERS. THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A BIT EASTWARD. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES MESOSCALE BANDING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND CAN
BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 10 TO 14 INCHES FORECAST FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND
A PORTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AMOUNTS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AROUND 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WITH LESS THAN 7 INCHES ACROSS HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES
(THAT`S WHY THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH).

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...ONLY A SUBTLE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/WED...WITH MAINLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 8-12 KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE INTO
THE WEST BY DAYBREAK AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. SOME BRIEF GUSTS OF UP TO
20-25 KT COULD OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY
WEST WINDS AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z-13Z/TUE...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
35-45 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 250532
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE
THE HUDSON VALLEY. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR IS STILL
WELL BACK TO THE WEST. IT WILL STILL BE A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE
NOVEMBER WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH 30S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

FOR TUESDAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS DIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS QUICK FLOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR COLDER AIR TO BE USHERED IN.
WILL HAVE WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO MID 50S BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING (MONDAY EVENING). IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH
WILL KEEP THE STORM PROGRESSIVE. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST...THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HAVE A TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF GFS AND NAM...AND A BIT SOUTH IN
TIMING PASSING THE LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF TRACK WITH IN THE SPREAD OF THE GFSENSEMBLES
MEMBERS. THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A BIT EASTWARD. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES MESOSCALE BANDING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND CAN
BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 10 TO 14 INCHES FORECAST FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND
A PORTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AMOUNTS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AROUND 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WITH LESS THAN 7 INCHES ACROSS HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES
(THAT`S WHY THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH).

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...ONLY A SUBTLE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/WED...WITH MAINLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 8-12 KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE INTO
THE WEST BY DAYBREAK AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. SOME BRIEF GUSTS OF UP TO
20-25 KT COULD OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY
WEST WINDS AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z-13Z/TUE...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
35-45 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 250532
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE
THE HUDSON VALLEY. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR IS STILL
WELL BACK TO THE WEST. IT WILL STILL BE A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE
NOVEMBER WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH 30S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

FOR TUESDAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS DIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS QUICK FLOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR COLDER AIR TO BE USHERED IN.
WILL HAVE WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO MID 50S BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING (MONDAY EVENING). IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH
WILL KEEP THE STORM PROGRESSIVE. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST...THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HAVE A TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF GFS AND NAM...AND A BIT SOUTH IN
TIMING PASSING THE LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF TRACK WITH IN THE SPREAD OF THE GFSENSEMBLES
MEMBERS. THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A BIT EASTWARD. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES MESOSCALE BANDING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND CAN
BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 10 TO 14 INCHES FORECAST FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND
A PORTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AMOUNTS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AROUND 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WITH LESS THAN 7 INCHES ACROSS HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES
(THAT`S WHY THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH).

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...ONLY A SUBTLE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/WED...WITH MAINLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 8-12 KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE INTO
THE WEST BY DAYBREAK AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. SOME BRIEF GUSTS OF UP TO
20-25 KT COULD OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY
WEST WINDS AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z-13Z/TUE...AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
35-45 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KBOX 250449
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1149 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS.
NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1130 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF CLOUDS HAS MOVED NE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH 03Z...THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS ON SW WINDS AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION.

DEWPTS STARTING TO FALL ACROSS CENTRAL VT /FROM KLEB TO KRUT AT
04Z/...BUT NO TRUE WIND SHIFT NOTED. BAND OF SHOWERS DELINEATING
THE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS EXTREME N NH...N CENTRAL VT INTO UPSTATE
NY. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE WITH RATHER WIDE TEMP/DEWPT
SPREADS CAUSING PRECIP TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS SEEN S OF NEW ENGLAND ON NE REGIONAL 88D
RADAR ALSO MOVING NE...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT. ALSO NOTING FOG DEVELOPING
ALONG THE S COAST WHICH SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MOST OF IF NOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
INCREASING TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAIN ON TIMING OF COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SW INTO TUE MORNING.
ALSO EXTENDED FOG COVERAGE ALONG S COAST THROUGH 08Z-10Z THEN
START TO INCREASE VSBYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINED BY
CONTINUED BLUSTERY FLOW. QUITE IMPRESSIVE WARMTH CONTINUES AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THE WORST
OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS THE S COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD /
ISLANDS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT MAINLY A DRY PUSH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

COLD FRONT /UNV-SYR-MSS/ SWEEPS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AROUND 9Z.
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LOWEST ALONG THE S-SHORELINE
WITH IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AROUND 25-30 KTS INITIALLY GRADUALLY RELAXING. THE BREEZY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF FOG AWAY.

IMPROVING VFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED W/SW WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SPECIFIC TIMING AS TO
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE TERMINAL IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING TOWARDS 8Z. MAY LIFT FASTER THAN FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

1130 PM UPDATE...

HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY AT
10 PM AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. WINDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW
GALE ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE AGAIN WED. HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR THOSE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO SW. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-
     256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...EVT/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 250449
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1149 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS.
NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1130 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF CLOUDS HAS MOVED NE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH 03Z...THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS ON SW WINDS AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION.

DEWPTS STARTING TO FALL ACROSS CENTRAL VT /FROM KLEB TO KRUT AT
04Z/...BUT NO TRUE WIND SHIFT NOTED. BAND OF SHOWERS DELINEATING
THE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS EXTREME N NH...N CENTRAL VT INTO UPSTATE
NY. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE WITH RATHER WIDE TEMP/DEWPT
SPREADS CAUSING PRECIP TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS SEEN S OF NEW ENGLAND ON NE REGIONAL 88D
RADAR ALSO MOVING NE...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT. ALSO NOTING FOG DEVELOPING
ALONG THE S COAST WHICH SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MOST OF IF NOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
INCREASING TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAIN ON TIMING OF COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SW INTO TUE MORNING.
ALSO EXTENDED FOG COVERAGE ALONG S COAST THROUGH 08Z-10Z THEN
START TO INCREASE VSBYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINED BY
CONTINUED BLUSTERY FLOW. QUITE IMPRESSIVE WARMTH CONTINUES AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THE WORST
OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS THE S COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD /
ISLANDS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT MAINLY A DRY PUSH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

COLD FRONT /UNV-SYR-MSS/ SWEEPS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AROUND 9Z.
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LOWEST ALONG THE S-SHORELINE
WITH IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AROUND 25-30 KTS INITIALLY GRADUALLY RELAXING. THE BREEZY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF FOG AWAY.

IMPROVING VFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED W/SW WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SPECIFIC TIMING AS TO
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE TERMINAL IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING TOWARDS 8Z. MAY LIFT FASTER THAN FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

1130 PM UPDATE...

HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY AT
10 PM AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. WINDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW
GALE ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE AGAIN WED. HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR THOSE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO SW. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-
     256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...EVT/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 250449
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1149 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS.
NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1130 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF CLOUDS HAS MOVED NE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH 03Z...THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS ON SW WINDS AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION.

DEWPTS STARTING TO FALL ACROSS CENTRAL VT /FROM KLEB TO KRUT AT
04Z/...BUT NO TRUE WIND SHIFT NOTED. BAND OF SHOWERS DELINEATING
THE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS EXTREME N NH...N CENTRAL VT INTO UPSTATE
NY. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE WITH RATHER WIDE TEMP/DEWPT
SPREADS CAUSING PRECIP TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS SEEN S OF NEW ENGLAND ON NE REGIONAL 88D
RADAR ALSO MOVING NE...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT. ALSO NOTING FOG DEVELOPING
ALONG THE S COAST WHICH SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MOST OF IF NOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
INCREASING TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAIN ON TIMING OF COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SW INTO TUE MORNING.
ALSO EXTENDED FOG COVERAGE ALONG S COAST THROUGH 08Z-10Z THEN
START TO INCREASE VSBYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINED BY
CONTINUED BLUSTERY FLOW. QUITE IMPRESSIVE WARMTH CONTINUES AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THE WORST
OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS THE S COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD /
ISLANDS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT MAINLY A DRY PUSH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

COLD FRONT /UNV-SYR-MSS/ SWEEPS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AROUND 9Z.
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LOWEST ALONG THE S-SHORELINE
WITH IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AROUND 25-30 KTS INITIALLY GRADUALLY RELAXING. THE BREEZY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF FOG AWAY.

IMPROVING VFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED W/SW WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SPECIFIC TIMING AS TO
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE TERMINAL IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING TOWARDS 8Z. MAY LIFT FASTER THAN FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

1130 PM UPDATE...

HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY AT
10 PM AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. WINDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW
GALE ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE AGAIN WED. HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR THOSE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO SW. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-
     256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...EVT/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 250449
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1149 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS.
NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1130 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF CLOUDS HAS MOVED NE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH 03Z...THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS ON SW WINDS AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION.

DEWPTS STARTING TO FALL ACROSS CENTRAL VT /FROM KLEB TO KRUT AT
04Z/...BUT NO TRUE WIND SHIFT NOTED. BAND OF SHOWERS DELINEATING
THE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS EXTREME N NH...N CENTRAL VT INTO UPSTATE
NY. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE WITH RATHER WIDE TEMP/DEWPT
SPREADS CAUSING PRECIP TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS SEEN S OF NEW ENGLAND ON NE REGIONAL 88D
RADAR ALSO MOVING NE...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT. ALSO NOTING FOG DEVELOPING
ALONG THE S COAST WHICH SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MOST OF IF NOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
INCREASING TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAIN ON TIMING OF COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SW INTO TUE MORNING.
ALSO EXTENDED FOG COVERAGE ALONG S COAST THROUGH 08Z-10Z THEN
START TO INCREASE VSBYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINED BY
CONTINUED BLUSTERY FLOW. QUITE IMPRESSIVE WARMTH CONTINUES AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THE WORST
OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS THE S COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD /
ISLANDS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT MAINLY A DRY PUSH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

COLD FRONT /UNV-SYR-MSS/ SWEEPS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AROUND 9Z.
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LOWEST ALONG THE S-SHORELINE
WITH IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AROUND 25-30 KTS INITIALLY GRADUALLY RELAXING. THE BREEZY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF FOG AWAY.

IMPROVING VFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED W/SW WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SPECIFIC TIMING AS TO
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE TERMINAL IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING TOWARDS 8Z. MAY LIFT FASTER THAN FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

1130 PM UPDATE...

HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY AT
10 PM AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. WINDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW
GALE ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE AGAIN WED. HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR THOSE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO SW. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-
     256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...EVT/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 250250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR BE USHERED IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...A NARROW
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WITHIN
THIS NARROW BAND AND SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30-45 MPH ARE PROBABLY
OCCURRING WITHIN THESE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL. THE LINE IS
MOVING EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS WITHIN THE BAND ARE
TRAVELING NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THESE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND WILL IMPACT AREAS TO THE
NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. THE THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MAINLY BE OVER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SPRINKLE OR RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS IN A FEW SPOTS.

A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR IS STILL WELL BACK TO
THE WEST.  IT WILL STILL BE A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH
LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS DIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME SHORT ENERGY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS QUICK FLOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR COLDER AIR TO BE USHERED IN. WILL HAVE WEAK
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. SHOWERS SHOULD CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING (MONDAY EVENING). IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH
WILL KEEP THE STORM PROGRESSIVE. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST...THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HAVE A TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF GFS AND NAM...AND A BIT SOUTH IN
TIMING PASSING THE LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF TRACK WITH IN THE SPREAD OF THE GFSENSEMBLES
MEMBERS. THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A BIT EASTWARD. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES MESOSCALE BANDING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND CAN
BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 10 TO 14 INCHES FORECAST FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND
A PORTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AMOUNTS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AROUND 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WITH LESS THAN 7 INCHES ACROSS HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES
(THAT`S WHY THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH).

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT KPSF
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE BKN LOWER CLOUDS
AT 3500-5000 FT SHOULD BREAK UP LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY FOR TUESDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. JUST SOME SCT DIURNAL CU
AND PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 250250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR BE USHERED IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...A NARROW
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WITHIN
THIS NARROW BAND AND SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30-45 MPH ARE PROBABLY
OCCURRING WITHIN THESE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL. THE LINE IS
MOVING EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS WITHIN THE BAND ARE
TRAVELING NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THESE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND WILL IMPACT AREAS TO THE
NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. THE THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MAINLY BE OVER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SPRINKLE OR RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS IN A FEW SPOTS.

A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR IS STILL WELL BACK TO
THE WEST.  IT WILL STILL BE A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH
LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS DIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME SHORT ENERGY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS QUICK FLOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR COLDER AIR TO BE USHERED IN. WILL HAVE WEAK
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. SHOWERS SHOULD CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING (MONDAY EVENING). IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH
WILL KEEP THE STORM PROGRESSIVE. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST...THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HAVE A TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF GFS AND NAM...AND A BIT SOUTH IN
TIMING PASSING THE LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF TRACK WITH IN THE SPREAD OF THE GFSENSEMBLES
MEMBERS. THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A BIT EASTWARD. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES MESOSCALE BANDING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND CAN
BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 10 TO 14 INCHES FORECAST FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND
A PORTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AMOUNTS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AROUND 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WITH LESS THAN 7 INCHES ACROSS HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES
(THAT`S WHY THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH).

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT KPSF
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE BKN LOWER CLOUDS
AT 3500-5000 FT SHOULD BREAK UP LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY FOR TUESDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. JUST SOME SCT DIURNAL CU
AND PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 242349
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR BE USHERED IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RECORD WARMTH TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKEN AT
ALBANY...GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE.

ALBANY...70 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 69 DEGREES 1979)
GLENS FALLS...68 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 67 DEGREES 1999)
POUGHKEEPSIE...71 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 68 DEGREES 1979)

AS OF 649 PM EST...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE TUG HILL PLATEAU
TOWARDS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THERE EVEN HAVE BEEN A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY WELL NORTH OF OLD FORGE. THE
3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THESE AREAS...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.

A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
IT WILL STILL BE A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH LOWS SIMILAR
TO WHAT THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S WITH 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS DIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME SHORT ENERGY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS QUICK FLOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR COLDER AIR TO BE USHERED IN. WILL HAVE WEAK
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. SHOWERS SHOULD CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING (MONDAY EVENING). IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH
WILL KEEP THE STORM PROGRESSIVE. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST...THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HAVE A TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF GFS AND NAM...AND A BIT SOUTH IN
TIMING PASSING THE LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF TRACK WITH IN THE SPREAD OF THE GFSENSEMBLES
MEMBERS. THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A BIT EASTWARD. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES MESOSCALE BANDING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND CAN
BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 10 TO 14 INCHES FORECAST FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND
A PORTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AMOUNTS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AROUND 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WITH LESS THAN 7 INCHES ACROSS HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES
(THAT`S WHY THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH).

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT KPSF
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE BKN LOWER CLOUDS
AT 3500-5000 FT SHOULD BREAK UP LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY FOR TUESDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. JUST SOME SCT DIURNAL CU
AND PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 242349
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR BE USHERED IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RECORD WARMTH TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKEN AT
ALBANY...GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE.

ALBANY...70 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 69 DEGREES 1979)
GLENS FALLS...68 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 67 DEGREES 1999)
POUGHKEEPSIE...71 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 68 DEGREES 1979)

AS OF 649 PM EST...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE TUG HILL PLATEAU
TOWARDS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THERE EVEN HAVE BEEN A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY WELL NORTH OF OLD FORGE. THE
3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THESE AREAS...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.

A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
IT WILL STILL BE A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH LOWS SIMILAR
TO WHAT THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S WITH 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS DIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME SHORT ENERGY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS QUICK FLOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR COLDER AIR TO BE USHERED IN. WILL HAVE WEAK
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. SHOWERS SHOULD CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING (MONDAY EVENING). IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH
WILL KEEP THE STORM PROGRESSIVE. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST...THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HAVE A TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF GFS AND NAM...AND A BIT SOUTH IN
TIMING PASSING THE LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF TRACK WITH IN THE SPREAD OF THE GFSENSEMBLES
MEMBERS. THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A BIT EASTWARD. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES MESOSCALE BANDING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND CAN
BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 10 TO 14 INCHES FORECAST FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND
A PORTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AMOUNTS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AROUND 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WITH LESS THAN 7 INCHES ACROSS HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES
(THAT`S WHY THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH).

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT KPSF
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE BKN LOWER CLOUDS
AT 3500-5000 FT SHOULD BREAK UP LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY FOR TUESDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. JUST SOME SCT DIURNAL CU
AND PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 242349
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR BE USHERED IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RECORD WARMTH TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKEN AT
ALBANY...GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE.

ALBANY...70 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 69 DEGREES 1979)
GLENS FALLS...68 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 67 DEGREES 1999)
POUGHKEEPSIE...71 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 68 DEGREES 1979)

AS OF 649 PM EST...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE TUG HILL PLATEAU
TOWARDS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THERE EVEN HAVE BEEN A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY WELL NORTH OF OLD FORGE. THE
3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THESE AREAS...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.

A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
IT WILL STILL BE A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH LOWS SIMILAR
TO WHAT THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S WITH 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS DIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME SHORT ENERGY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS QUICK FLOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR COLDER AIR TO BE USHERED IN. WILL HAVE WEAK
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. SHOWERS SHOULD CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING (MONDAY EVENING). IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH
WILL KEEP THE STORM PROGRESSIVE. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST...THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HAVE A TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF GFS AND NAM...AND A BIT SOUTH IN
TIMING PASSING THE LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF TRACK WITH IN THE SPREAD OF THE GFSENSEMBLES
MEMBERS. THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A BIT EASTWARD. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES MESOSCALE BANDING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND CAN
BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 10 TO 14 INCHES FORECAST FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND
A PORTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AMOUNTS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AROUND 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WITH LESS THAN 7 INCHES ACROSS HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES
(THAT`S WHY THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH).

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT KPSF
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE BKN LOWER CLOUDS
AT 3500-5000 FT SHOULD BREAK UP LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY FOR TUESDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. JUST SOME SCT DIURNAL CU
AND PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 242349
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR BE USHERED IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RECORD WARMTH TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKEN AT
ALBANY...GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE.

ALBANY...70 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 69 DEGREES 1979)
GLENS FALLS...68 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 67 DEGREES 1999)
POUGHKEEPSIE...71 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 68 DEGREES 1979)

AS OF 649 PM EST...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE TUG HILL PLATEAU
TOWARDS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THERE EVEN HAVE BEEN A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY WELL NORTH OF OLD FORGE. THE
3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OUTSIDE
OF THESE AREAS...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.

A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
IT WILL STILL BE A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH LOWS SIMILAR
TO WHAT THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S WITH 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS DIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME SHORT ENERGY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS QUICK FLOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR COLDER AIR TO BE USHERED IN. WILL HAVE WEAK
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. SHOWERS SHOULD CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING (MONDAY EVENING). IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH
WILL KEEP THE STORM PROGRESSIVE. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST...THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HAVE A TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF GFS AND NAM...AND A BIT SOUTH IN
TIMING PASSING THE LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF TRACK WITH IN THE SPREAD OF THE GFSENSEMBLES
MEMBERS. THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A BIT EASTWARD. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES MESOSCALE BANDING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND CAN
BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 10 TO 14 INCHES FORECAST FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND
A PORTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AMOUNTS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AROUND 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WITH LESS THAN 7 INCHES ACROSS HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES
(THAT`S WHY THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH).

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT KPSF
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE BKN LOWER CLOUDS
AT 3500-5000 FT SHOULD BREAK UP LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY FOR TUESDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. JUST SOME SCT DIURNAL CU
AND PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 242343
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
643 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A WET AND MILD DAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH
SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY
TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

STILL A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINED BY
CONTINUED BLUSTERY FLOW. CAN SEE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PROGRESSING E
ACROSS UPSTATE NY / PA...WITH NOTABLY SOME LIGHTNING PRESENT ALONG
THE NY / CANADIAN BORDER. QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE WARMTH CONTINUES
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THE WORST OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS
THE S-COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD / ISLANDS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THE REGION...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
BUT MAINLY A DRY PUSH. CONDITIONS CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...REMAINING MILD WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPS
PRIOR TO THE FRONT...DROPPING OFF THEREAFTER. GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 MPH...STRONGER MORE SO OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND ADJACENT WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

COLD FRONT /UNV-SYR-MSS/ SWEEPS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AROUND 9Z.
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LOWEST ALONG THE S-SHORELINE
WITH IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AROUND 25-30 KTS INITIALLY GRADUALLY RELAXING. THE BREEZY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF FOG AWAY.

IMPROVING VFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED W/SW WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SPECIFIC TIMING AS TO
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE TERMINAL IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING TOWARDS 8Z. MAY LIFT FASTER THAN FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 PM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO
30 KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING SWITCHING THE WINDS TO A MORE SW. WILL GRADUALLY DROP THE
GALES CONVERTING TO SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242343
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
643 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A WET AND MILD DAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH
SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY
TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

STILL A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINED BY
CONTINUED BLUSTERY FLOW. CAN SEE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PROGRESSING E
ACROSS UPSTATE NY / PA...WITH NOTABLY SOME LIGHTNING PRESENT ALONG
THE NY / CANADIAN BORDER. QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE WARMTH CONTINUES
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THE WORST OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS
THE S-COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD / ISLANDS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THE REGION...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
BUT MAINLY A DRY PUSH. CONDITIONS CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...REMAINING MILD WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPS
PRIOR TO THE FRONT...DROPPING OFF THEREAFTER. GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 MPH...STRONGER MORE SO OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND ADJACENT WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

COLD FRONT /UNV-SYR-MSS/ SWEEPS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AROUND 9Z.
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LOWEST ALONG THE S-SHORELINE
WITH IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AROUND 25-30 KTS INITIALLY GRADUALLY RELAXING. THE BREEZY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF FOG AWAY.

IMPROVING VFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED W/SW WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SPECIFIC TIMING AS TO
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE TERMINAL IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING TOWARDS 8Z. MAY LIFT FASTER THAN FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 PM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO
30 KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING SWITCHING THE WINDS TO A MORE SW. WILL GRADUALLY DROP THE
GALES CONVERTING TO SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242343
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
643 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A WET AND MILD DAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH
SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY
TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

STILL A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINED BY
CONTINUED BLUSTERY FLOW. CAN SEE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PROGRESSING E
ACROSS UPSTATE NY / PA...WITH NOTABLY SOME LIGHTNING PRESENT ALONG
THE NY / CANADIAN BORDER. QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE WARMTH CONTINUES
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THE WORST OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS
THE S-COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD / ISLANDS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THE REGION...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
BUT MAINLY A DRY PUSH. CONDITIONS CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...REMAINING MILD WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPS
PRIOR TO THE FRONT...DROPPING OFF THEREAFTER. GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 MPH...STRONGER MORE SO OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND ADJACENT WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

COLD FRONT /UNV-SYR-MSS/ SWEEPS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AROUND 9Z.
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LOWEST ALONG THE S-SHORELINE
WITH IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AROUND 25-30 KTS INITIALLY GRADUALLY RELAXING. THE BREEZY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF FOG AWAY.

IMPROVING VFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED W/SW WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SPECIFIC TIMING AS TO
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE TERMINAL IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING TOWARDS 8Z. MAY LIFT FASTER THAN FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 PM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO
30 KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING SWITCHING THE WINDS TO A MORE SW. WILL GRADUALLY DROP THE
GALES CONVERTING TO SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242343
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
643 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A WET AND MILD DAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH
SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY
TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

STILL A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINED BY
CONTINUED BLUSTERY FLOW. CAN SEE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PROGRESSING E
ACROSS UPSTATE NY / PA...WITH NOTABLY SOME LIGHTNING PRESENT ALONG
THE NY / CANADIAN BORDER. QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE WARMTH CONTINUES
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THE WORST OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS
THE S-COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD / ISLANDS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THE REGION...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
BUT MAINLY A DRY PUSH. CONDITIONS CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...REMAINING MILD WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPS
PRIOR TO THE FRONT...DROPPING OFF THEREAFTER. GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 MPH...STRONGER MORE SO OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND ADJACENT WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

COLD FRONT /UNV-SYR-MSS/ SWEEPS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AROUND 9Z.
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LOWEST ALONG THE S-SHORELINE
WITH IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AROUND 25-30 KTS INITIALLY GRADUALLY RELAXING. THE BREEZY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF FOG AWAY.

IMPROVING VFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED W/SW WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SPECIFIC TIMING AS TO
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE TERMINAL IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING TOWARDS 8Z. MAY LIFT FASTER THAN FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 PM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO
30 KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING SWITCHING THE WINDS TO A MORE SW. WILL GRADUALLY DROP THE
GALES CONVERTING TO SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD




000
FXUS61 KALY 242236
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
536 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR BE USHERED IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RECORD WARMTH TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKEN AT
ALBANY...GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE.

ALBANY...70 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 69 DEGREES 1979)
GLENS FALLS...68 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 67 DEGREES 1999)
POUGHKEEPSIE...71 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 68 DEGREES 1979)

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A COOLER
AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH ITS PASSAGE. IT WILL STILL BE A
MILD NIGHT FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE DAYTIME
HIGHS SHOULD BE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS DIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME SHORT ENERGY WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS QUICK FLOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR COLDER AIR TO BE USHERED IN. WILL HAVE WEAK
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. SHOWERS SHOULD CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING (MONDAY EVENING). IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH
WILL KEEP THE STORM PROGRESSIVE. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST...THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HAVE A TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF GFS AND NAM...AND A BIT SOUTH IN
TIMING PASSING THE LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF TRACK WITH IN THE SPREAD OF THE GFSENSEMBLES
MEMBERS. THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A BIT EASTWARD. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES MESOSCALE BANDING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND CAN
BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 10 TO 14 INCHES FORECAST FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND
A PORTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AMOUNTS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AROUND 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WITH LESS THAN 7 INCHES ACROSS HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES
(THAT`S WHY THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH).

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING PEAK AS SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MIXES DOWNWARD.

THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAFS AROUND 06Z...BRINGING
PERHAPS ANOTHER SHOWER (VCSH) AND A WIND SHIFT FROM S TO WSW.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING UP TO 25KTS...MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WIND WILL RELAX A LITTLE HEADING INTO DARK...BUT THEN PICK UP
AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AT
THAT TIME WILL BE BACK AROUND 20KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES SO A HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...THE TIMING WOULD INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION MIGHT HOLD OFF FOR THE MORNING PEAK
WEDNESDAY...MOVING IN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 242236
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
536 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR BE USHERED IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RECORD WARMTH TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKEN AT
ALBANY...GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE.

ALBANY...70 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 69 DEGREES 1979)
GLENS FALLS...68 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 67 DEGREES 1999)
POUGHKEEPSIE...71 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 68 DEGREES 1979)

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A COOLER
AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH ITS PASSAGE. IT WILL STILL BE A
MILD NIGHT FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE DAYTIME
HIGHS SHOULD BE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS DIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME SHORT ENERGY WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS QUICK FLOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR COLDER AIR TO BE USHERED IN. WILL HAVE WEAK
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. SHOWERS SHOULD CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING (MONDAY EVENING). IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH
WILL KEEP THE STORM PROGRESSIVE. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST...THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HAVE A TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF GFS AND NAM...AND A BIT SOUTH IN
TIMING PASSING THE LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF TRACK WITH IN THE SPREAD OF THE GFSENSEMBLES
MEMBERS. THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A BIT EASTWARD. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES MESOSCALE BANDING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND CAN
BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 10 TO 14 INCHES FORECAST FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND
A PORTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AMOUNTS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AROUND 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WITH LESS THAN 7 INCHES ACROSS HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES
(THAT`S WHY THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH).

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING PEAK AS SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MIXES DOWNWARD.

THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAFS AROUND 06Z...BRINGING
PERHAPS ANOTHER SHOWER (VCSH) AND A WIND SHIFT FROM S TO WSW.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING UP TO 25KTS...MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WIND WILL RELAX A LITTLE HEADING INTO DARK...BUT THEN PICK UP
AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AT
THAT TIME WILL BE BACK AROUND 20KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES SO A HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...THE TIMING WOULD INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION MIGHT HOLD OFF FOR THE MORNING PEAK
WEDNESDAY...MOVING IN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 242236
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
536 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR BE USHERED IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RECORD WARMTH TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKEN AT
ALBANY...GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE.

ALBANY...70 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 69 DEGREES 1979)
GLENS FALLS...68 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 67 DEGREES 1999)
POUGHKEEPSIE...71 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 68 DEGREES 1979)

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A COOLER
AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH ITS PASSAGE. IT WILL STILL BE A
MILD NIGHT FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE DAYTIME
HIGHS SHOULD BE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS DIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME SHORT ENERGY WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS QUICK FLOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR COLDER AIR TO BE USHERED IN. WILL HAVE WEAK
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. SHOWERS SHOULD CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING (MONDAY EVENING). IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH
WILL KEEP THE STORM PROGRESSIVE. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST...THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HAVE A TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF GFS AND NAM...AND A BIT SOUTH IN
TIMING PASSING THE LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF TRACK WITH IN THE SPREAD OF THE GFSENSEMBLES
MEMBERS. THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A BIT EASTWARD. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES MESOSCALE BANDING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND CAN
BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 10 TO 14 INCHES FORECAST FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND
A PORTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AMOUNTS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AROUND 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WITH LESS THAN 7 INCHES ACROSS HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES
(THAT`S WHY THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH).

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING PEAK AS SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MIXES DOWNWARD.

THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAFS AROUND 06Z...BRINGING
PERHAPS ANOTHER SHOWER (VCSH) AND A WIND SHIFT FROM S TO WSW.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING UP TO 25KTS...MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WIND WILL RELAX A LITTLE HEADING INTO DARK...BUT THEN PICK UP
AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AT
THAT TIME WILL BE BACK AROUND 20KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES SO A HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...THE TIMING WOULD INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION MIGHT HOLD OFF FOR THE MORNING PEAK
WEDNESDAY...MOVING IN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 242236
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
536 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR BE USHERED IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RECORD WARMTH TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKEN AT
ALBANY...GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE.

ALBANY...70 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 69 DEGREES 1979)
GLENS FALLS...68 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 67 DEGREES 1999)
POUGHKEEPSIE...71 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 68 DEGREES 1979)

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A COOLER
AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH ITS PASSAGE. IT WILL STILL BE A
MILD NIGHT FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE DAYTIME
HIGHS SHOULD BE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS DIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME SHORT ENERGY WILL
MOVE THROUGH THIS QUICK FLOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR COLDER AIR TO BE USHERED IN. WILL HAVE WEAK
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. SHOWERS SHOULD CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING (MONDAY EVENING). IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH
WILL KEEP THE STORM PROGRESSIVE. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST...THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HAVE A TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF GFS AND NAM...AND A BIT SOUTH IN
TIMING PASSING THE LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF TRACK WITH IN THE SPREAD OF THE GFSENSEMBLES
MEMBERS. THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A BIT EASTWARD. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES MESOSCALE BANDING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND CAN
BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 10 TO 14 INCHES FORECAST FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND
A PORTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AMOUNTS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AROUND 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WITH LESS THAN 7 INCHES ACROSS HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES
(THAT`S WHY THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH).

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING PEAK AS SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MIXES DOWNWARD.

THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAFS AROUND 06Z...BRINGING
PERHAPS ANOTHER SHOWER (VCSH) AND A WIND SHIFT FROM S TO WSW.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING UP TO 25KTS...MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WIND WILL RELAX A LITTLE HEADING INTO DARK...BUT THEN PICK UP
AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AT
THAT TIME WILL BE BACK AROUND 20KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES SO A HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...THE TIMING WOULD INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION MIGHT HOLD OFF FOR THE MORNING PEAK
WEDNESDAY...MOVING IN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 242158
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR BE USHERED IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RECORD WARMTH TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKEN AT
ALBANY...GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE.

ALBANY...70 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 69 DEGREES 1979)
GLENS FALLS...68 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 67 DEGREES 1999)
POUGHKEEPSIE...71 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 68 DEGREES 1979)

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A COOLER
AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH ITS PASSAGE. IT WILL STILL BE A
MILD NIGHT FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE DAYTIME
HIGHS SHOULD BE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE SNOW TAPERING OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR MAY
OCCUR DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOW.

MORE TO COME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING PEAK AS SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MIXES DOWNWARD.

THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAFS AROUND 06Z...BRINGING
PERHAPS ANOTHER SHOWER (VCSH) AND A WIND SHIFT FROM S TO WSW.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING UP TO 25KTS...MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WIND WILL RELAX A LITTLE HEADING INTO DARK...BUT THEN PICK UP
AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AT
THAT TIME WILL BE BACK AROUND 20KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES SO A HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...THE TIMING WOULD INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION MIGHT HOLD OFF FOR THE MORNING PEAK
WEDNESDAY...MOVING IN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KALY 242158
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR BE USHERED IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RECORD WARMTH TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKEN AT
ALBANY...GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE.

ALBANY...70 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 69 DEGREES 1979)
GLENS FALLS...68 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 67 DEGREES 1999)
POUGHKEEPSIE...71 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 68 DEGREES 1979)

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A COOLER
AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH ITS PASSAGE. IT WILL STILL BE A
MILD NIGHT FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE DAYTIME
HIGHS SHOULD BE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE SNOW TAPERING OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR MAY
OCCUR DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOW.

MORE TO COME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING PEAK AS SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MIXES DOWNWARD.

THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAFS AROUND 06Z...BRINGING
PERHAPS ANOTHER SHOWER (VCSH) AND A WIND SHIFT FROM S TO WSW.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING UP TO 25KTS...MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WIND WILL RELAX A LITTLE HEADING INTO DARK...BUT THEN PICK UP
AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AT
THAT TIME WILL BE BACK AROUND 20KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES SO A HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...THE TIMING WOULD INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION MIGHT HOLD OFF FOR THE MORNING PEAK
WEDNESDAY...MOVING IN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KALY 242158
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR BE USHERED IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RECORD WARMTH TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKEN AT
ALBANY...GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE.

ALBANY...70 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 69 DEGREES 1979)
GLENS FALLS...68 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 67 DEGREES 1999)
POUGHKEEPSIE...71 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 68 DEGREES 1979)

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A COOLER
AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH ITS PASSAGE. IT WILL STILL BE A
MILD NIGHT FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE DAYTIME
HIGHS SHOULD BE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE SNOW TAPERING OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR MAY
OCCUR DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOW.

MORE TO COME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING PEAK AS SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MIXES DOWNWARD.

THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAFS AROUND 06Z...BRINGING
PERHAPS ANOTHER SHOWER (VCSH) AND A WIND SHIFT FROM S TO WSW.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING UP TO 25KTS...MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WIND WILL RELAX A LITTLE HEADING INTO DARK...BUT THEN PICK UP
AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AT
THAT TIME WILL BE BACK AROUND 20KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES SO A HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...THE TIMING WOULD INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION MIGHT HOLD OFF FOR THE MORNING PEAK
WEDNESDAY...MOVING IN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KALY 242158
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
457 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR BE USHERED IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RECORD WARMTH TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKEN AT
ALBANY...GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE.

ALBANY...70 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 69 DEGREES 1979)
GLENS FALLS...68 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 67 DEGREES 1999)
POUGHKEEPSIE...71 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 68 DEGREES 1979)

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A COOLER
AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH ITS PASSAGE. IT WILL STILL BE A
MILD NIGHT FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE DAYTIME
HIGHS SHOULD BE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE SNOW TAPERING OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR MAY
OCCUR DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOW.

MORE TO COME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING PEAK AS SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MIXES DOWNWARD.

THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAFS AROUND 06Z...BRINGING
PERHAPS ANOTHER SHOWER (VCSH) AND A WIND SHIFT FROM S TO WSW.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING UP TO 25KTS...MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WIND WILL RELAX A LITTLE HEADING INTO DARK...BUT THEN PICK UP
AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AT
THAT TIME WILL BE BACK AROUND 20KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES SO A HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...THE TIMING WOULD INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION MIGHT HOLD OFF FOR THE MORNING PEAK
WEDNESDAY...MOVING IN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KALY 242156
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
456 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR BE USHERED IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RECORD WARMTH TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKEN AT
ALBANY...GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE.

ALBANY...70 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 69 DEGREES 1979)
GLENS FALLS...68 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 67 DEGREES 1999)
POUGHKEEPSIE...71 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 68 DEGREES 1979)

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A COOLER
AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH ITS PASSAGE. IT WILL STILL BE A
MILD NIGHT FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE DAYTIME
HIGHS SHOULD BE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE SNOW TAPERING OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR MAY
OCCUR DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOW.

MORE TO COME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING PEAK AS SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MIXES DOWNWARD.

THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAFS AROUND 06Z...BRINGING
PERHAPS ANOTHER SHOWER (VCSH) AND A WIND SHIFT FROM S TO WSW.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING UP TO 25KTS...MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WIND WILL RELAX A LITTLE HEADING INTO DARK...BUT THEN PICK UP
AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AT
THAT TIME WILL BE BACK AROUND 20KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES SO A HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...THE TIMING WOULD INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION MIGHT HOLD OFF FOR THE MORNING PEAK
WEDNESDAY...MOVING IN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 242156
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
456 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR BE USHERED IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RECORD WARMTH TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKEN AT
ALBANY...GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE.

ALBANY...70 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 69 DEGREES 1979)
GLENS FALLS...68 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 67 DEGREES 1999)
POUGHKEEPSIE...71 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 68 DEGREES 1979)

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A COOLER
AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH ITS PASSAGE. IT WILL STILL BE A
MILD NIGHT FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE DAYTIME
HIGHS SHOULD BE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE SNOW TAPERING OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR MAY
OCCUR DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOW.

MORE TO COME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING PEAK AS SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MIXES DOWNWARD.

THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAFS AROUND 06Z...BRINGING
PERHAPS ANOTHER SHOWER (VCSH) AND A WIND SHIFT FROM S TO WSW.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING UP TO 25KTS...MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WIND WILL RELAX A LITTLE HEADING INTO DARK...BUT THEN PICK UP
AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AT
THAT TIME WILL BE BACK AROUND 20KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES SO A HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...THE TIMING WOULD INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION MIGHT HOLD OFF FOR THE MORNING PEAK
WEDNESDAY...MOVING IN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 242156
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
456 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR BE USHERED IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RECORD WARMTH TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKEN AT
ALBANY...GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE.

ALBANY...70 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 69 DEGREES 1979)
GLENS FALLS...68 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 67 DEGREES 1999)
POUGHKEEPSIE...71 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 68 DEGREES 1979)

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A COOLER
AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH ITS PASSAGE. IT WILL STILL BE A
MILD NIGHT FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE DAYTIME
HIGHS SHOULD BE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE SNOW TAPERING OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR MAY
OCCUR DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOW.

MORE TO COME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING PEAK AS SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MIXES DOWNWARD.

THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAFS AROUND 06Z...BRINGING
PERHAPS ANOTHER SHOWER (VCSH) AND A WIND SHIFT FROM S TO WSW.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING UP TO 25KTS...MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WIND WILL RELAX A LITTLE HEADING INTO DARK...BUT THEN PICK UP
AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AT
THAT TIME WILL BE BACK AROUND 20KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES SO A HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...THE TIMING WOULD INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION MIGHT HOLD OFF FOR THE MORNING PEAK
WEDNESDAY...MOVING IN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 242156
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
456 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR BE USHERED IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RECORD WARMTH TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKEN AT
ALBANY...GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE.

ALBANY...70 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 69 DEGREES 1979)
GLENS FALLS...68 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 67 DEGREES 1999)
POUGHKEEPSIE...71 DEGREES TODAY (OLD RECORD: 68 DEGREES 1979)

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A COOLER
AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH ITS PASSAGE. IT WILL STILL BE A
MILD NIGHT FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE DAYTIME
HIGHS SHOULD BE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE SNOW TAPERING OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR MAY
OCCUR DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOW.

MORE TO COME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY
NOR`EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING PEAK AS SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MIXES DOWNWARD.

THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAFS AROUND 06Z...BRINGING
PERHAPS ANOTHER SHOWER (VCSH) AND A WIND SHIFT FROM S TO WSW.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING UP TO 25KTS...MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WIND WILL RELAX A LITTLE HEADING INTO DARK...BUT THEN PICK UP
AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AT
THAT TIME WILL BE BACK AROUND 20KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES SO A HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...THE TIMING WOULD INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION MIGHT HOLD OFF FOR THE MORNING PEAK
WEDNESDAY...MOVING IN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KBOX 242045
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WET AND MILD DAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH
SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY
TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL FAIRLY SATURATED AND WE
HAVE DESCENT LIFT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET. OTHERWISE MILD AIR WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE GUSTY WINDS.

TONIGHT...

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO LOW CLOUDS AND VSBYS
ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. AS THE FRONT
PASSES AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AS UPPER LEVELS
ARE FAIRLY DRY. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO PUNCH THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD AS
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE. ALSO
ANTICIPATE GUSTY SW WINDS...NEAR 15-20 MPH...WHICH WILL KEEP THE
TEMPS FROM RADIATING OUT OVERNIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT UP TO THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...A FEW ISO SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE MVFR OUT WEST AND IFR OUT EAST.

TONIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER FOR
SE TERMINALS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS.
FRONT PASSES NEAR 09Z SO IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS. SW
WIND GUSTS 15-25 KTS OVERNIGHT...SHOULD KEEP FOG AWAY.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...UNCERTAIN ON TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...UNCERTAIN ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 TO
30KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SWITCHING THE WINDS TO A MORE SW
WINDS. HAVE CONVERTED MOST GALES TO SCA EXCEPT ACROSS EASTERN
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BE QUITE CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242045
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WET AND MILD DAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH
SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY
TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL FAIRLY SATURATED AND WE
HAVE DESCENT LIFT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET. OTHERWISE MILD AIR WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE GUSTY WINDS.

TONIGHT...

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO LOW CLOUDS AND VSBYS
ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. AS THE FRONT
PASSES AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AS UPPER LEVELS
ARE FAIRLY DRY. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO PUNCH THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD AS
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE. ALSO
ANTICIPATE GUSTY SW WINDS...NEAR 15-20 MPH...WHICH WILL KEEP THE
TEMPS FROM RADIATING OUT OVERNIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT UP TO THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...A FEW ISO SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE MVFR OUT WEST AND IFR OUT EAST.

TONIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER FOR
SE TERMINALS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS.
FRONT PASSES NEAR 09Z SO IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS. SW
WIND GUSTS 15-25 KTS OVERNIGHT...SHOULD KEEP FOG AWAY.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...UNCERTAIN ON TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...UNCERTAIN ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 TO
30KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SWITCHING THE WINDS TO A MORE SW
WINDS. HAVE CONVERTED MOST GALES TO SCA EXCEPT ACROSS EASTERN
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BE QUITE CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241809
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
109 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

100 PM UPDATE...

DRY SLOT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM
FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER WE ARE STILL
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ. IN FACE THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT THAT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE
PORTION OF THE REGION...WHERE THE STRONGEST 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS CO-LOCATED. AMOUNTS IN THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AROUND
0.05 INCHES SO ANY ADDITIONAL NUISANCES FLOODING ISSUES SEEM LOW
AT THIS TIME. ANTICIPATE THESE SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO PULL OFFSHORE
AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

MIXING ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES AS GUSTS ARE AROUND 15-25
MPH...STRONG ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
ALSO SEE THE STRONGER GUSTS AS THE 925 MB LLJ IS STILL AROUND 40
KTS. HAVE NOTICED A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...IF
CLOUDS DO BREAK OUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY AS 925 MB
TEMPS REACH 13-16C. SO AT THE SURFACE A ROGUE 70F REPORT IS
POSSIBLE IS THE CLOUDS BREAK OUT. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE CROSS
SECTION APPEARS THE LOW LEVELS ARE VERY MOIST SO CONTINUED WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...KEEPING MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. SW GUSTS TO
25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55
KT. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT BY 21Z.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE CONTINUING MVFR ISO
IFR CIGS FOR SE TERMINALS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS. SW WIND GUSTS 15-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SHOULD KEEP FOG
AWAY.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CIGS
AND GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHTS TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON TONIGHTS TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241809
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
109 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

100 PM UPDATE...

DRY SLOT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM
FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER WE ARE STILL
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ. IN FACE THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT THAT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE
PORTION OF THE REGION...WHERE THE STRONGEST 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS CO-LOCATED. AMOUNTS IN THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AROUND
0.05 INCHES SO ANY ADDITIONAL NUISANCES FLOODING ISSUES SEEM LOW
AT THIS TIME. ANTICIPATE THESE SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO PULL OFFSHORE
AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

MIXING ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES AS GUSTS ARE AROUND 15-25
MPH...STRONG ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
ALSO SEE THE STRONGER GUSTS AS THE 925 MB LLJ IS STILL AROUND 40
KTS. HAVE NOTICED A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...IF
CLOUDS DO BREAK OUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY AS 925 MB
TEMPS REACH 13-16C. SO AT THE SURFACE A ROGUE 70F REPORT IS
POSSIBLE IS THE CLOUDS BREAK OUT. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE CROSS
SECTION APPEARS THE LOW LEVELS ARE VERY MOIST SO CONTINUED WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...KEEPING MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. SW GUSTS TO
25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55
KT. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT BY 21Z.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE CONTINUING MVFR ISO
IFR CIGS FOR SE TERMINALS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS. SW WIND GUSTS 15-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SHOULD KEEP FOG
AWAY.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CIGS
AND GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHTS TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON TONIGHTS TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 241754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1254 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 1250 PM EST...THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST OF THE REGION DRY AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WHERE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

THE TWO BIG PLAYMAKERS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RECORD WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
DATE. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH OCCASIONALLY AT TIMES...SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THIS SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION BY SEVERAL DEGREES
AND AM NOW FORECASTING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SPOTS...WITH
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

THE RECORD HIGH AT ALBANY IS 69 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1979...WITH A
HIGH TEMPERATURE NOW EXPECTED OF 71. THE RECORD HIGH AT
POUGHKEEPSIE IS 68 DEGREES SET ALSO BACK IN 1979 WITH A HIGH
TEMPERATURE NOW EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF NOON...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF ALL OF TAF SITES.
THERE IS UNLIKELY TO BE ANY MORE IFR (EXCEPT MAYBE BRIEFLY) BUT
OCCASIONALLY WE HAVE LOW MVFR CIGS (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EXCEPT KPOU THROUGH 22Z.

VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING PEAK AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MIXES DOWNWARD.

THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAFS AROUND 06Z...BRINGING
PERHAPS ANOTHER SHOWER (VCSH) AND A WIND SHIFT FROM S TO WSW.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING UP TO 25KTS...MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WIND WILL RELAX A LITTLE HEADING INTO DARK...BUT THEN PICK UP
AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AT
THAT TIME WILL BE BACK AROUND 20KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES SO A HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...THE TIMING WOULD INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION MIGHT HOLD OFF FOR THE MORNING PEAK
WEDNESDAY...MOVING IN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/11
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 241754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1254 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 1250 PM EST...THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST OF THE REGION DRY AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WHERE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

THE TWO BIG PLAYMAKERS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RECORD WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
DATE. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH OCCASIONALLY AT TIMES...SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THIS SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION BY SEVERAL DEGREES
AND AM NOW FORECASTING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SPOTS...WITH
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

THE RECORD HIGH AT ALBANY IS 69 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1979...WITH A
HIGH TEMPERATURE NOW EXPECTED OF 71. THE RECORD HIGH AT
POUGHKEEPSIE IS 68 DEGREES SET ALSO BACK IN 1979 WITH A HIGH
TEMPERATURE NOW EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF NOON...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF ALL OF TAF SITES.
THERE IS UNLIKELY TO BE ANY MORE IFR (EXCEPT MAYBE BRIEFLY) BUT
OCCASIONALLY WE HAVE LOW MVFR CIGS (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EXCEPT KPOU THROUGH 22Z.

VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING PEAK AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MIXES DOWNWARD.

THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAFS AROUND 06Z...BRINGING
PERHAPS ANOTHER SHOWER (VCSH) AND A WIND SHIFT FROM S TO WSW.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING UP TO 25KTS...MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WIND WILL RELAX A LITTLE HEADING INTO DARK...BUT THEN PICK UP
AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AT
THAT TIME WILL BE BACK AROUND 20KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES SO A HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...THE TIMING WOULD INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION MIGHT HOLD OFF FOR THE MORNING PEAK
WEDNESDAY...MOVING IN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/11
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 241754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1254 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 1250 PM EST...THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST OF THE REGION DRY AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WHERE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

THE TWO BIG PLAYMAKERS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RECORD WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
DATE. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH OCCASIONALLY AT TIMES...SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THIS SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION BY SEVERAL DEGREES
AND AM NOW FORECASTING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SPOTS...WITH
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

THE RECORD HIGH AT ALBANY IS 69 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1979...WITH A
HIGH TEMPERATURE NOW EXPECTED OF 71. THE RECORD HIGH AT
POUGHKEEPSIE IS 68 DEGREES SET ALSO BACK IN 1979 WITH A HIGH
TEMPERATURE NOW EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF NOON...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF ALL OF TAF SITES.
THERE IS UNLIKELY TO BE ANY MORE IFR (EXCEPT MAYBE BRIEFLY) BUT
OCCASIONALLY WE HAVE LOW MVFR CIGS (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EXCEPT KPOU THROUGH 22Z.

VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING PEAK AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MIXES DOWNWARD.

THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAFS AROUND 06Z...BRINGING
PERHAPS ANOTHER SHOWER (VCSH) AND A WIND SHIFT FROM S TO WSW.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING UP TO 25KTS...MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WIND WILL RELAX A LITTLE HEADING INTO DARK...BUT THEN PICK UP
AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AT
THAT TIME WILL BE BACK AROUND 20KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES SO A HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...THE TIMING WOULD INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION MIGHT HOLD OFF FOR THE MORNING PEAK
WEDNESDAY...MOVING IN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/11
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 241754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1254 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 1250 PM EST...THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST OF THE REGION DRY AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WHERE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

THE TWO BIG PLAYMAKERS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RECORD WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
DATE. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH OCCASIONALLY AT TIMES...SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THIS SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION BY SEVERAL DEGREES
AND AM NOW FORECASTING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SPOTS...WITH
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

THE RECORD HIGH AT ALBANY IS 69 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1979...WITH A
HIGH TEMPERATURE NOW EXPECTED OF 71. THE RECORD HIGH AT
POUGHKEEPSIE IS 68 DEGREES SET ALSO BACK IN 1979 WITH A HIGH
TEMPERATURE NOW EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF NOON...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF ALL OF TAF SITES.
THERE IS UNLIKELY TO BE ANY MORE IFR (EXCEPT MAYBE BRIEFLY) BUT
OCCASIONALLY WE HAVE LOW MVFR CIGS (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EXCEPT KPOU THROUGH 22Z.

VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING PEAK AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MIXES DOWNWARD.

THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAFS AROUND 06Z...BRINGING
PERHAPS ANOTHER SHOWER (VCSH) AND A WIND SHIFT FROM S TO WSW.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING UP TO 25KTS...MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WIND WILL RELAX A LITTLE HEADING INTO DARK...BUT THEN PICK UP
AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AT
THAT TIME WILL BE BACK AROUND 20KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES SO A HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...THE TIMING WOULD INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION MIGHT HOLD OFF FOR THE MORNING PEAK
WEDNESDAY...MOVING IN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/11
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 241708
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1208 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...THE WARM FRONT LITERALLY SLIPPED NORTH OF I-90.
TEMPERATURES AT ALBANY JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S...60S FURTHER SOUTH.
FURTHER NORTH...THERE STILL READINGS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL WELL BACK IN THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY...NOT
REACHING OUR REGION UNTIL TONIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERED RAIN BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS).

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SPOTS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD POSSIBLY
MAKING A RUN AT 70. THE RECORD HIGH FOR ALBANY TODAY IS 69 DEGREES
SET BACK IN 1979.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF NOON...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF ALL OF TAF SITES.
THERE IS UNLIKELY TO BE ANY MORE IFR (EXCEPT MAYBE BRIEFLY) BUT
OCCASIONALLY WE HAVE LOW MVFR CIGS (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EXCEPT KPOU THROUGH 22Z.

VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING PEAK AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MIXES DOWNWARD.

THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAFS AROUND 06Z...BRINGING
PERHAPS ANOTHER SHOWER (VCSH) AND A WIND SHIFT FROM S TO WSW.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING UP TO 25KTS...MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WIND WILL RELAX A LITTLE HEADING INTO DARK...BUT THEN PICK UP
AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AT
THAT TIME WILL BE BACK AROUND 20KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES SO A HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...THE TIMING WOULD INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION MIGHT HOLD OFF FOR THE MORNING PEAK
WEDNESDAY...MOVING IN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 241708
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1208 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...THE WARM FRONT LITERALLY SLIPPED NORTH OF I-90.
TEMPERATURES AT ALBANY JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S...60S FURTHER SOUTH.
FURTHER NORTH...THERE STILL READINGS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL WELL BACK IN THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY...NOT
REACHING OUR REGION UNTIL TONIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERED RAIN BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS).

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SPOTS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD POSSIBLY
MAKING A RUN AT 70. THE RECORD HIGH FOR ALBANY TODAY IS 69 DEGREES
SET BACK IN 1979.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF NOON...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF ALL OF TAF SITES.
THERE IS UNLIKELY TO BE ANY MORE IFR (EXCEPT MAYBE BRIEFLY) BUT
OCCASIONALLY WE HAVE LOW MVFR CIGS (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EXCEPT KPOU THROUGH 22Z.

VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING PEAK AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MIXES DOWNWARD.

THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAFS AROUND 06Z...BRINGING
PERHAPS ANOTHER SHOWER (VCSH) AND A WIND SHIFT FROM S TO WSW.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING UP TO 25KTS...MAINLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
THE WIND WILL RELAX A LITTLE HEADING INTO DARK...BUT THEN PICK UP
AGAIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS AT
THAT TIME WILL BE BACK AROUND 20KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY...BUT BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES SO A HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW...THE TIMING WOULD INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION MIGHT HOLD OFF FOR THE MORNING PEAK
WEDNESDAY...MOVING IN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KBOX 241535
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1035 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
WARM AIR TO MOVE IN AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. ALTHOUGH
BULK OF THE RAIN FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...STILL WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSFER MOVING INTO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR
THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO REGENERATE. ANTICIPATE LOW VSBYS AND
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS TO A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER CROSS SECTIONS.

DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MAIN BULK OF THE LLJ HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WILL STILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...HIGHER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. STEADY RAIN EXITS
13-16Z WITH NUMBEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING
MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGERING. S WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS 15-19Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO
25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55
KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT IN TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS
LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KTS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241535
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1035 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
WARM AIR TO MOVE IN AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. ALTHOUGH
BULK OF THE RAIN FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...STILL WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSFER MOVING INTO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR
THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO REGENERATE. ANTICIPATE LOW VSBYS AND
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS TO A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER CROSS SECTIONS.

DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MAIN BULK OF THE LLJ HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WILL STILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...HIGHER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. STEADY RAIN EXITS
13-16Z WITH NUMBEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING
MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGERING. S WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS 15-19Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO
25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55
KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT IN TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS
LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KTS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241535
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1035 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
WARM AIR TO MOVE IN AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. ALTHOUGH
BULK OF THE RAIN FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...STILL WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSFER MOVING INTO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR
THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO REGENERATE. ANTICIPATE LOW VSBYS AND
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS TO A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER CROSS SECTIONS.

DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MAIN BULK OF THE LLJ HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WILL STILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...HIGHER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. STEADY RAIN EXITS
13-16Z WITH NUMBEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING
MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGERING. S WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS 15-19Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO
25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55
KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT IN TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS
LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KTS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241535
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1035 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
WARM AIR TO MOVE IN AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. ALTHOUGH
BULK OF THE RAIN FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...STILL WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSFER MOVING INTO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR
THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO REGENERATE. ANTICIPATE LOW VSBYS AND
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS TO A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER CROSS SECTIONS.

DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MAIN BULK OF THE LLJ HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WILL STILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...HIGHER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. STEADY RAIN EXITS
13-16Z WITH NUMBEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING
MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGERING. S WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS 15-19Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO
25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55
KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT IN TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS
LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KTS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KALY 241429
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...THE WARM FRONT LITERALLY SLIPPED NORTH OF I-90.
TEMPERATURES AT ALBANY JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S...60S FURTHER SOUTH.
FURTHER NORTH...THERE STILL READINGS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL WELL BACK IN THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY...NOT
REACHING OUR REGION UNTIL TONIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERED RAIN BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS).

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SPOTS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD POSSIBLY
MAKING A RUN AT 70. THE RECORD HIGH FOR ALBANY TODAY IS 69 DEGREES
SET BACK IN 1979.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF KALB. UPDATED ALL
TAFS TO REMOVE LLWS (EXCEPT KGFL) WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS YET TO GO
THROUGH.

ALSO...EXCEPT FOR KGFL...REMOVED ALL IFR...BUT KEPT CIGS AT LOW MVR
(EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED).

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z/MON FROM
SW TO NE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THE CLOUDS CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CIGS RISING TO HIGH END
MVFR...AND POSSIBLY VFR. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND
CAN MIX DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...ESP AT
KGFL AND PERHAPS KPOU.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS
WILL TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/TUE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH AROUND 13Z-
15Z/MON...AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT...WHILE SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 241429
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...THE WARM FRONT LITERALLY SLIPPED NORTH OF I-90.
TEMPERATURES AT ALBANY JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S...60S FURTHER SOUTH.
FURTHER NORTH...THERE STILL READINGS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL WELL BACK IN THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY...NOT
REACHING OUR REGION UNTIL TONIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERED RAIN BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS).

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SPOTS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD POSSIBLY
MAKING A RUN AT 70. THE RECORD HIGH FOR ALBANY TODAY IS 69 DEGREES
SET BACK IN 1979.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF KALB. UPDATED ALL
TAFS TO REMOVE LLWS (EXCEPT KGFL) WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS YET TO GO
THROUGH.

ALSO...EXCEPT FOR KGFL...REMOVED ALL IFR...BUT KEPT CIGS AT LOW MVR
(EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED).

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z/MON FROM
SW TO NE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THE CLOUDS CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CIGS RISING TO HIGH END
MVFR...AND POSSIBLY VFR. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND
CAN MIX DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...ESP AT
KGFL AND PERHAPS KPOU.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS
WILL TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/TUE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH AROUND 13Z-
15Z/MON...AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT...WHILE SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 241429
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...THE WARM FRONT LITERALLY SLIPPED NORTH OF I-90.
TEMPERATURES AT ALBANY JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S...60S FURTHER SOUTH.
FURTHER NORTH...THERE STILL READINGS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL WELL BACK IN THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY...NOT
REACHING OUR REGION UNTIL TONIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERED RAIN BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS).

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SPOTS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD POSSIBLY
MAKING A RUN AT 70. THE RECORD HIGH FOR ALBANY TODAY IS 69 DEGREES
SET BACK IN 1979.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF KALB. UPDATED ALL
TAFS TO REMOVE LLWS (EXCEPT KGFL) WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS YET TO GO
THROUGH.

ALSO...EXCEPT FOR KGFL...REMOVED ALL IFR...BUT KEPT CIGS AT LOW MVR
(EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED).

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z/MON FROM
SW TO NE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THE CLOUDS CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CIGS RISING TO HIGH END
MVFR...AND POSSIBLY VFR. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND
CAN MIX DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...ESP AT
KGFL AND PERHAPS KPOU.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS
WILL TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/TUE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH AROUND 13Z-
15Z/MON...AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT...WHILE SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 241429
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...THE WARM FRONT LITERALLY SLIPPED NORTH OF I-90.
TEMPERATURES AT ALBANY JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S...60S FURTHER SOUTH.
FURTHER NORTH...THERE STILL READINGS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL WELL BACK IN THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY...NOT
REACHING OUR REGION UNTIL TONIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERED RAIN BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS).

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SPOTS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD POSSIBLY
MAKING A RUN AT 70. THE RECORD HIGH FOR ALBANY TODAY IS 69 DEGREES
SET BACK IN 1979.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF KALB. UPDATED ALL
TAFS TO REMOVE LLWS (EXCEPT KGFL) WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS YET TO GO
THROUGH.

ALSO...EXCEPT FOR KGFL...REMOVED ALL IFR...BUT KEPT CIGS AT LOW MVR
(EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED).

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z/MON FROM
SW TO NE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THE CLOUDS CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CIGS RISING TO HIGH END
MVFR...AND POSSIBLY VFR. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND
CAN MIX DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...ESP AT
KGFL AND PERHAPS KPOU.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS
WILL TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/TUE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH AROUND 13Z-
15Z/MON...AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT...WHILE SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KBOX 241158
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
658 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

645 AM UPDATE...
AXIS OF RAINFALL RACING EAST ACROSS SNE THIS MORNING. DRY SLOT
ALREADY MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AND HEAVIEST RAIN IS BEGINNING
TO MOVE EAST OF CT VALLEY. LOOKING AT JUST A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING BEFORE DRY SLOT MOVES IN
AND RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN BUT COOLER AIR
HANGING TOUGH IN THE CT VALLEY WHERE STILL UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THIS COOL AIR WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH TEMPS
RISING QUICKLY THROUGH THE 50S. SEEING WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT NEAR
THE S COAST. POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT SE NEW ENG THROUGH 18Z AS LLJ
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
POTENT LOW LEVEL JET +4SD WILL TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS PWATS /+3 TO
+4SD/ NORTH INTO THE REGION TO BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE REGION. ELEVATED THUNDER INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE NOSE OF LLJ
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOTE
THAT DRY SLOT IS ALREADY MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA SO DURATION OF
STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN 6
HOURS...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF 13-16Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL
LIMIT QPF WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.50-1.00 ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. JUST THE TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST...
FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET 70-75 KT AT 925 MB WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SE NEW ENG 12-18Z. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT
AT THE TIME THE JET IS MOVING THROUGH SO THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FINE LINE OF CONVECTION. AND THIS IS NOT REALLY AN IDEAL SITUATION
FOR A FINE LINE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NO COLD FRONT.
TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE JET OFTEN IS A
DECENT STARTING POINT FOR ESTIMATING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WITH INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT
AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF REALIZING GUSTS TO 45+ MPH WILL BE
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL IN SE MA.

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. STEADY RAIN EXITS
13-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW
ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS 12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT IN TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS
LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KTS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KALY 241127
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT WIND GUSTS OF 42 KTS WAS REPORTED AT
KDDH (BENNINGTON ASOS), 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN ONCE THE
RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY THE
EARLY EVENING.

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z/MON FROM
SW TO NE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THE CLOUDS CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CIGS RISING TO MVFR...AND
POSSIBLY VFR. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM THE
WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND CAN MIX
DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...ESP AT KGFL AND
PERHAPS KPOU.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS
WILL TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/TUE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH AROUND 13Z-
15Z/MON...AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT...WHILE SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 241127
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT WIND GUSTS OF 42 KTS WAS REPORTED AT
KDDH (BENNINGTON ASOS), 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN ONCE THE
RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY THE
EARLY EVENING.

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z/MON FROM
SW TO NE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THE CLOUDS CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CIGS RISING TO MVFR...AND
POSSIBLY VFR. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM THE
WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND CAN MIX
DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...ESP AT KGFL AND
PERHAPS KPOU.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS
WILL TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/TUE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH AROUND 13Z-
15Z/MON...AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT...WHILE SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 241120
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT WIND GUSTS OF 42 KTS WAS REPORTED AT
KDDH (BENNINGTON ASOS), 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN ONCE THE
RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 241120
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT WIND GUSTS OF 42 KTS WAS REPORTED AT
KDDH (BENNINGTON ASOS), 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN ONCE THE
RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KBOX 240930
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. POTENT LOW LEVEL JET +4SD WILL
TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS PWATS /+3 TO +4SD/ NORTH INTO THE REGION TO
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION. ELEVATED THUNDER
INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE NOSE OF LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOTE THAT DRY SLOT IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA SO DURATION OF STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
SHORT LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF
13-16Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.50-1.00 ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. JUST THE TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST...
FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET 70-75 KT AT 925 MB WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SE NEW ENG 12-18Z. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT
AT THE TIME THE JET IS MOVING THROUGH SO THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FINE LINE OF CONVECTION. AND THIS IS NOT REALLY AN IDEAL SITUATION
FOR A FINE LINE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NO COLD FRONT.
TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE JET OFTEN IS A
DECENT STARTING POINT FOR ESTIMATING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WITH INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT
AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF REALIZING GUSTS TO 45+ MPH WILL BE
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL IN SE MA.

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KTS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 240930
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. POTENT LOW LEVEL JET +4SD WILL
TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS PWATS /+3 TO +4SD/ NORTH INTO THE REGION TO
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION. ELEVATED THUNDER
INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE NOSE OF LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOTE THAT DRY SLOT IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA SO DURATION OF STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
SHORT LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF
13-16Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.50-1.00 ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. JUST THE TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST...
FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET 70-75 KT AT 925 MB WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SE NEW ENG 12-18Z. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT
AT THE TIME THE JET IS MOVING THROUGH SO THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FINE LINE OF CONVECTION. AND THIS IS NOT REALLY AN IDEAL SITUATION
FOR A FINE LINE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NO COLD FRONT.
TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE JET OFTEN IS A
DECENT STARTING POINT FOR ESTIMATING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WITH INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT
AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF REALIZING GUSTS TO 45+ MPH WILL BE
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL IN SE MA.

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KTS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SPECIFIC
OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

RAIN BEGINNNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. POTENT LOW LEVEL JET +4SD WILL
TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS PWATS /+3 TO +4SD/ NORTH INTO THE REGION TO
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION. ELEVATED THUNDER
INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE NOSE OF LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOTE THAT DRY SLOT IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA SO DURATION OF STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
SHORT LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF
13-16Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.50-1.00 ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
ANOUNTS. JUST THE TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST...
FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET 70-75 KT AT 925 MB WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SE NEW ENG 12-18Z. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT
AT THE TIME THE JET IS MOVING THROUGH SO THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FINE LINE OF CONVECTION. AND THIS IS NOT REALLY AN IDEAL SITUATION
FOR A FINE LINE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NO COLD FRONT.
TAKING ABOUNT 50 PERCENT OF THE MAGNITIDE OF THE JET OFTEN IS A
DECENT STARTING POINT FOR ESTIMATING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WITH INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT
AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF REALIZING GUSTS TO 45+ MPH WILL BE
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE CAPE CAOD CANAL IN SE MA.

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMEBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SPECIFIC
OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

RAIN BEGINNNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. POTENT LOW LEVEL JET +4SD WILL
TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS PWATS /+3 TO +4SD/ NORTH INTO THE REGION TO
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION. ELEVATED THUNDER
INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE NOSE OF LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOTE THAT DRY SLOT IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA SO DURATION OF STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
SHORT LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF
13-16Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.50-1.00 ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
ANOUNTS. JUST THE TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST...
FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET 70-75 KT AT 925 MB WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SE NEW ENG 12-18Z. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT
AT THE TIME THE JET IS MOVING THROUGH SO THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FINE LINE OF CONVECTION. AND THIS IS NOT REALLY AN IDEAL SITUATION
FOR A FINE LINE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NO COLD FRONT.
TAKING ABOUNT 50 PERCENT OF THE MAGNITIDE OF THE JET OFTEN IS A
DECENT STARTING POINT FOR ESTIMATING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WITH INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT
AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF REALIZING GUSTS TO 45+ MPH WILL BE
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE CAPE CAOD CANAL IN SE MA.

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMEBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SPECIFIC
OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

RAIN BEGINNNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. POTENT LOW LEVEL JET +4SD WILL
TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS PWATS /+3 TO +4SD/ NORTH INTO THE REGION TO
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION. ELEVATED THUNDER
INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE NOSE OF LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOTE THAT DRY SLOT IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA SO DURATION OF STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
SHORT LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF
13-16Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.50-1.00 ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
ANOUNTS. JUST THE TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST...
FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET 70-75 KT AT 925 MB WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SE NEW ENG 12-18Z. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT
AT THE TIME THE JET IS MOVING THROUGH SO THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FINE LINE OF CONVECTION. AND THIS IS NOT REALLY AN IDEAL SITUATION
FOR A FINE LINE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NO COLD FRONT.
TAKING ABOUNT 50 PERCENT OF THE MAGNITIDE OF THE JET OFTEN IS A
DECENT STARTING POINT FOR ESTIMATING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WITH INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT
AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF REALIZING GUSTS TO 45+ MPH WILL BE
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE CAPE CAOD CANAL IN SE MA.

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMEBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SPECIFIC
OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

RAIN BEGINNNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. POTENT LOW LEVEL JET +4SD WILL
TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS PWATS /+3 TO +4SD/ NORTH INTO THE REGION TO
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION. ELEVATED THUNDER
INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE NOSE OF LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOTE THAT DRY SLOT IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA SO DURATION OF STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
SHORT LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF
13-16Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.50-1.00 ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
ANOUNTS. JUST THE TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST...
FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET 70-75 KT AT 925 MB WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SE NEW ENG 12-18Z. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT
AT THE TIME THE JET IS MOVING THROUGH SO THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FINE LINE OF CONVECTION. AND THIS IS NOT REALLY AN IDEAL SITUATION
FOR A FINE LINE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NO COLD FRONT.
TAKING ABOUNT 50 PERCENT OF THE MAGNITIDE OF THE JET OFTEN IS A
DECENT STARTING POINT FOR ESTIMATING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WITH INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT
AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF REALIZING GUSTS TO 45+ MPH WILL BE
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE CAPE CAOD CANAL IN SE MA.

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMEBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 240839
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
339 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK SOME
SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 240839
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
339 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK SOME
SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KBOX 240602
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
102 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET SPECIFIC OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1255 AM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS E PA AND NJ WILL BE MOVING INTO CT
AND W MA BY 08Z THEN REACHING E MA 10-12Z. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS FOR ONSET OF RAIN...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK. AREAS OF
FOG ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS LOW LEVEL
APPROACHES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
  ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...

1) BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING...BUT THE WEATHER WILL
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
INDUCE A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEEP
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 3 AND 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING SHOULD
YIELD A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. THUNDER INDICES ARE MARGINAL
BUT ENOUGH FORCING COULD GENERATE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. FORTUNATELY THE SYSTEM
IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO EXPECT THE STEADY/HEAVY RAIN TO BE OVER
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
0.50 TO 1 INCHES IN MOST LOCALES...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GENERATE ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...OTHER THAN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING WHICH WILL UNFORTUNATELY COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY
AM RUSH HOUR.

2) STRONG WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE INVERSION...ITS ALWAYS TRICKY TO SEE
HOW MUCH WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE GROUND. LOW
LEVEL JET AT 850 MB IS AROUND 80 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. TAKING HALF OF THAT OFTEN CAN
GET YOU IN THE BALL PARK OF WHAT WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THEREFORE...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. IF WE CAN GET A FINE LINE GOING...CONFIDENCE WOULD INCREASE
MORE IN BEING ABLE TO BRING THE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND.
NONETHELESS...STILL THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH THE ADVISORY.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE WILL HAVE LIFTED TO OUR NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE STEADY AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
HAVE COME TO AN END. WE WILL STILL HAVE A LOT OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT/MOISTURE AROUND FOR A FEW PASSING SHOWERS SO MAINTAINED SOME
POPS. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +10 TO +12C. DESPITE A
LOT OF CLOUDS...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE
WELL INTO THE 60S. NOT SURE IF WE WILL SEE MUCH SUN GIVEN SO MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT IF WE END UP WITH MORE THAN EXPECTED SOME
LOCATIONS COULD REACH OR EXCEED 70. REGARDLESS...WILL ACTUALLY
FEEL A BIT MUGGY FOR LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH DEWPOINTS
CLOSE TO 60! ALSO...THERE IS A LOT OF WIND JUST OFF THE DECK INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP EVEN
IN THE INTERIOR...DEPENDING ON IF WE CAN MUSTER ANY PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE.

THIS COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

DEEPENING LOW LIFTING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL INDUCE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT MONDAY MORNING. WHILE POTENTIAL MIXING TO THE SURFACE
WILL BE LIMITED...STILL THINK THERE IS A DECENT SHOT OF SOUTHERLY
35-40 KT GUSTS. SUCH GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY EVENING OUT OF THE SW.

GALE WARNINGS HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR. SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2 FT IS
LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240602
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
102 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET SPECIFIC OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1255 AM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS E PA AND NJ WILL BE MOVING INTO CT
AND W MA BY 08Z THEN REACHING E MA 10-12Z. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS FOR ONSET OF RAIN...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK. AREAS OF
FOG ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS LOW LEVEL
APPROACHES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
  ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...

1) BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING...BUT THE WEATHER WILL
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
INDUCE A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEEP
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 3 AND 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING SHOULD
YIELD A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. THUNDER INDICES ARE MARGINAL
BUT ENOUGH FORCING COULD GENERATE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. FORTUNATELY THE SYSTEM
IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO EXPECT THE STEADY/HEAVY RAIN TO BE OVER
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
0.50 TO 1 INCHES IN MOST LOCALES...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GENERATE ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...OTHER THAN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING WHICH WILL UNFORTUNATELY COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY
AM RUSH HOUR.

2) STRONG WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE INVERSION...ITS ALWAYS TRICKY TO SEE
HOW MUCH WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE GROUND. LOW
LEVEL JET AT 850 MB IS AROUND 80 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. TAKING HALF OF THAT OFTEN CAN
GET YOU IN THE BALL PARK OF WHAT WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THEREFORE...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. IF WE CAN GET A FINE LINE GOING...CONFIDENCE WOULD INCREASE
MORE IN BEING ABLE TO BRING THE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND.
NONETHELESS...STILL THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH THE ADVISORY.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE WILL HAVE LIFTED TO OUR NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE STEADY AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
HAVE COME TO AN END. WE WILL STILL HAVE A LOT OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT/MOISTURE AROUND FOR A FEW PASSING SHOWERS SO MAINTAINED SOME
POPS. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +10 TO +12C. DESPITE A
LOT OF CLOUDS...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE
WELL INTO THE 60S. NOT SURE IF WE WILL SEE MUCH SUN GIVEN SO MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT IF WE END UP WITH MORE THAN EXPECTED SOME
LOCATIONS COULD REACH OR EXCEED 70. REGARDLESS...WILL ACTUALLY
FEEL A BIT MUGGY FOR LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH DEWPOINTS
CLOSE TO 60! ALSO...THERE IS A LOT OF WIND JUST OFF THE DECK INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP EVEN
IN THE INTERIOR...DEPENDING ON IF WE CAN MUSTER ANY PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE.

THIS COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

DEEPENING LOW LIFTING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL INDUCE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT MONDAY MORNING. WHILE POTENTIAL MIXING TO THE SURFACE
WILL BE LIMITED...STILL THINK THERE IS A DECENT SHOT OF SOUTHERLY
35-40 KT GUSTS. SUCH GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY EVENING OUT OF THE SW.

GALE WARNINGS HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR. SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2 FT IS
LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KALY 240531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...MAJOR OVERHAUL OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
REGARDS TO TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN AND WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF PCPN BY A COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM 4 AM THROUGH
NOON TODAY. 0-30 MB AGL WINDS SHOW GUSTS OVER 40 KTS ACRS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND NOON TIME.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO SLACKEN. A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING N/NE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND THE TN VALLEY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG LLJ WILL FOCUS THE
RAINFALL /50-70 KTS AT H850/. THE LLJ WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS
PWAT AIR A FEW STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
QUICKLY FROM THE S/SE. SOME GUSTS IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH THE STABLE
LAYER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BECOME
MODERATE TO HVY INTENSITY AT TIMES OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
BTWN 09Z- 12Z. THE RAINFALL IS STARTING TO BREAK OUT OVER PA AND
MD THIS HOUR.

LOWS SO FAR ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE M30S TO L50S. THIS IS
DUE TO THE DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /FOR EXAMPLE KPSF
AT 36F/. THE S/SE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE M30S TO M40S...AND THEN STEADY OR RISING IN THE
RAINFALL.

TOMORROW...
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 240531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...MAJOR OVERHAUL OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
REGARDS TO TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN AND WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF PCPN BY A COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM 4 AM THROUGH
NOON TODAY. 0-30 MB AGL WINDS SHOW GUSTS OVER 40 KTS ACRS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND NOON TIME.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO SLACKEN. A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING N/NE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND THE TN VALLEY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG LLJ WILL FOCUS THE
RAINFALL /50-70 KTS AT H850/. THE LLJ WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS
PWAT AIR A FEW STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
QUICKLY FROM THE S/SE. SOME GUSTS IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH THE STABLE
LAYER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BECOME
MODERATE TO HVY INTENSITY AT TIMES OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
BTWN 09Z- 12Z. THE RAINFALL IS STARTING TO BREAK OUT OVER PA AND
MD THIS HOUR.

LOWS SO FAR ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE M30S TO L50S. THIS IS
DUE TO THE DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /FOR EXAMPLE KPSF
AT 36F/. THE S/SE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE M30S TO M40S...AND THEN STEADY OR RISING IN THE
RAINFALL.

TOMORROW...
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 240236
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 936 PM EST...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS EVENING WITH H500
HEIGHTS OVERLAYED DEPICTS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE TN VALLEY.
A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING N/NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE
TN VALLEY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT. WE CONTINUED THE TREND TO TWEAK THE POPS BACK SLIGHTLY
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. EXPECTING THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG LLJ WILL
FOCUS THE RAINFALL /50-70 KTS AT H850/. THE LLJ WILL ADVECT IN
ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR A FEW STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE QUICKLY FROM THE S/SE. SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN GREENS TOWARDS 12Z. FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...THE WINDS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PENETRATING THE STABLE
LAYER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RAIN COULD BECOME MODERATE TO HVY
INTENSITY AT TIMES OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY BTWN 09Z-12Z. THE
RAINFALL IS STARTING TO BREAK OUT OVER PA AND MD THIS HOUR.

LOWS SO FAR ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE M30S TO L50S. THIS IS
DUE TO THE DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /FOR EXAMPLE KPSF
AT 36F/. THE S/SE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE M30S TO M40S...AND THEN STEADY OR RISING IN THE
RAINFALL.

TOMORROW...
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
FOCUS PERIODS OF RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR
LEVELS AT KPOU/KALB/KPSF/KGFL BTWN 06Z-09Z. THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING UNTIL 17Z/MON.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR TO VFR LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
40-50 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUST AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAI