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000
FXUS61 KBOX 182234
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
534 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT STILL COULD BRING A PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A MUCH STRONGER STORM IS LIKELY TO BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRES MOVES NE FROM THE MARITIMES BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WHICH WILL KEEP A
FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. WHILE
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...THERE IS ENOUGH PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO KEEP THE WINDS UP SO TEMPS WILL NOT DROP OFF THAT
QUICKLY. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 20S...WITH LOWER 30S OVER THE OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE GRT LAKES WITH NW FLOW ACROSS NEW
ENG. TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST AS NAM INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...WHILE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS. GIVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW IS STILL
NW...WE WILL LEAN MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN NAM WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE 3-5 DEGREES COLDER THAN
TODAY GIVEN COOLING AT 925 MB...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR
30 HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA TO UPPER 30S IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO W NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT
FORCING IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED
SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NE AND MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING LOW MOISTURE BACKING IN ACROSS SE NEW ENG
OVERNIGHT. DELTA T FROM SST TO THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IS
AROUND 13C WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR OCEAN EFFECT AND OCEAN INDUCED
CAPES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
INCREASING. MODELS DO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING SO THERE MAY
BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CAPE COD AND ACK OVERNIGHT
AND WE HAVE SOME LOW CHC POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUN...WITH A PERIOD OF
  DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TUE BUT COULD
  STILL SEE LIGHT PRECIP
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
  WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON LARGE
SCALE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...WITH A RATHER
POTENT BUT FAST MOVING ONE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN TIMEFRAME WHICH IS
AIDED WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE MOISTURE...WITH A SECOND WEAK LOW FOR
LATE MON INTO TUE BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP.

STILL QUITE A FEW PLACEMENT AND TIMING ISSUES WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP H5 CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AROUND THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME...THEN ROTATES NE
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BIG
IMPLICATIONS WITH THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
ACROSS THE MID ATLC OR SE U.S. LATE IN THIS PERIOD. SECONDARY/
TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS ON SURFACE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AROUND TUESDAY...THEN WORKS UP ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SE
AND MID ATLC STATES. QUESTION IS IF THIS LOW APPROACHES WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND WED NIGHT.

STILL SEE THE SIGNALS FOR A FAST MOVING STORM WITH MULTIPLE
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS...FIRST FROM THE SOUTH THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST. COULD
EVEN SEE SOME COASTAL IMPACTS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE DURING
WED. TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT THIS FAR OUT.
MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DOING A RATHER GOOD JOB HANDLING GENERAL
FEATURES OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS POINT.

USED A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC INTO THE
MARITIMES DURING THIS WEEKEND...THEN TENDS TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS WITH BLOCKING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. RATHER POTENT SHORT
WAVE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...AIDED
BY A LOW LEVEL E-NE WIND IN PLACE. A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AS SEEN ON BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO WILL SEE SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM E-W DURING SATURDAY. EXPECTING
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING SAT.

HOWEVER...AS TEMPS FALL BACK SAT NIGHT...ALONG WITH THE DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FEED...WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP. BIG
PROBLEM WILL BE JUST AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE TEMPS FALL BELOW
FREEZING WHICH MAY MEAN FREEZING DRIZZLE. DOES NOT TAKE MUCH TO
GET GLAZING ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ACROSS INTERIOR
E MA INTO RI...POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER W. WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW...MIGHT SEE UP TO 1/2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH
LEFTOVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THOUGH TEND TO TAPER OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST
AND...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S...WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. THE
MARITIMES SURFACE HIGH REMAINS PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE...WHICH WILL
HELP SHIFT THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THIS LOW WELL OFFSHORE /SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK/. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL LIGHT
PRECIP REACHING THE COAST MAINLY MON NIGHT INTO TUE. EXPECT MAINLY
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH SPOTTY BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING
PRECIP AROUND DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS N CT/N RI INTO S CENTRAL MA.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON TUE TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE S- SE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN
PLACE FOR WIND SHIFT AMONGST OP MODELS.

ONCE THE LOW EXITS LATE TUE...WILL ALREADY START TO SEE MOISTURE
FEED UP THE COAST FROM THE DEVELOPING GULF LOW...SO NOT MUCH OF A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

TUESDAY/S LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE WILL RUN UP TO 11.6 FT IN BOSTON
AND...WITH ANY EASTERLY WIND FLOW...THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. WILL MONITOR THIS ASPECT.

WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS.

SECONDARY LOW FROM THE PARENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
DEEPENS AS IT SHIFTS N. MODELS TRY TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM CLOSE TO OR
JUST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THOUGH STILL
TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE. AT THIS POINT...WILL SEE HEAVIEST SLUG OF
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS LATE WED INTO WED EVENING. GOOD TROPICAL
CONNECTION CONTINUES WITH PWATS FROM 1.25 TO 1.4 INCHES...RUNNING
ABOUT +2SD TO +3SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER. GOOD SHOT OF
MILD AIR WORKS IN ON SE- S WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL H925
AND H85 FROM 50-65 KT...AND AT LEAST SOME WILL MIX DOWN ESPECIALLY
IF THE LOW PRES PASSES CLOSER /WITH RAPIDLY FALLING PRESSURE/.
HAVE HIGHS ON WED UP TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...BUT COULD BE EVEN HIGHER WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS.

CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS THE DRY SLOT SHOULD WORK INTO THE REGION
LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING...SO PRECIP SHOULD END. WILL
STILL SEE GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH QUICKLY SHIFTING TO W-SW AND
GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST.

MAY NEED HEADLINES WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING IN HEAVY RAINFALL WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG WINDS
BOTH WED AND THU...AND MAYBE EVEN FOR COASTAL CONCERNS. NOTING
ASTRO HIGH TIDES CONTINUE /11.7 AND 11.5 FT AT BOSTON
RESPECTIVELY/... THOUGH TIMING OF WIND SHIFT MAY COME INTO PLAY
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING.
ONCE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...EXPECT A RATHER FAST
UPPER W FLOW IN PLACE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE MONADNOCKS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. ANOTHER LOW MIGHT MOVE INTO W NY STATE
FRI NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. TREND SHOULD
BE FOR CLOUD DECK TO BECOME SCT TOWARD 00Z..ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. W/NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LINGERING MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST. DIMINISHING WIND.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH EXTENT OF ANY MVFR
CIGS. WE HAVE MAINLY VFR IN THE TAFS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR...BUT
IT IS POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS COULD BE MORE EXPANSIVE IF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. LATER FORECASTS
WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS
FROM THE OCEAN EXPANDING WEST ACROSS E MA. LOW PROB FOR SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD AND ACK AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB
FOR MVFR CIGS FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS SCATTER
OUT THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS MAY RETURN FRI BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS. E MA INTO RI...AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR IN WIDELY SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MON NIGHT/TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...W/NW GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL LINGER OVER THE WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SCA HEADLINES WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING OVER THE OUTER EASTERN
WATERS...BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW SCA. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND
THE SCA FOR SEAS INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...N/NW WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...EXPECT E-NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 182234
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
534 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT STILL COULD BRING A PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A MUCH STRONGER STORM IS LIKELY TO BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRES MOVES NE FROM THE MARITIMES BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WHICH WILL KEEP A
FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. WHILE
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...THERE IS ENOUGH PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO KEEP THE WINDS UP SO TEMPS WILL NOT DROP OFF THAT
QUICKLY. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 20S...WITH LOWER 30S OVER THE OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE GRT LAKES WITH NW FLOW ACROSS NEW
ENG. TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST AS NAM INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...WHILE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS. GIVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW IS STILL
NW...WE WILL LEAN MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN NAM WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE 3-5 DEGREES COLDER THAN
TODAY GIVEN COOLING AT 925 MB...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR
30 HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA TO UPPER 30S IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO W NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT
FORCING IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED
SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NE AND MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING LOW MOISTURE BACKING IN ACROSS SE NEW ENG
OVERNIGHT. DELTA T FROM SST TO THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IS
AROUND 13C WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR OCEAN EFFECT AND OCEAN INDUCED
CAPES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
INCREASING. MODELS DO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING SO THERE MAY
BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CAPE COD AND ACK OVERNIGHT
AND WE HAVE SOME LOW CHC POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUN...WITH A PERIOD OF
  DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TUE BUT COULD
  STILL SEE LIGHT PRECIP
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
  WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON LARGE
SCALE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...WITH A RATHER
POTENT BUT FAST MOVING ONE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN TIMEFRAME WHICH IS
AIDED WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE MOISTURE...WITH A SECOND WEAK LOW FOR
LATE MON INTO TUE BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP.

STILL QUITE A FEW PLACEMENT AND TIMING ISSUES WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP H5 CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AROUND THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME...THEN ROTATES NE
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BIG
IMPLICATIONS WITH THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
ACROSS THE MID ATLC OR SE U.S. LATE IN THIS PERIOD. SECONDARY/
TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS ON SURFACE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AROUND TUESDAY...THEN WORKS UP ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SE
AND MID ATLC STATES. QUESTION IS IF THIS LOW APPROACHES WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND WED NIGHT.

STILL SEE THE SIGNALS FOR A FAST MOVING STORM WITH MULTIPLE
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS...FIRST FROM THE SOUTH THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST. COULD
EVEN SEE SOME COASTAL IMPACTS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE DURING
WED. TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT THIS FAR OUT.
MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DOING A RATHER GOOD JOB HANDLING GENERAL
FEATURES OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS POINT.

USED A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC INTO THE
MARITIMES DURING THIS WEEKEND...THEN TENDS TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS WITH BLOCKING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. RATHER POTENT SHORT
WAVE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...AIDED
BY A LOW LEVEL E-NE WIND IN PLACE. A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AS SEEN ON BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO WILL SEE SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM E-W DURING SATURDAY. EXPECTING
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING SAT.

HOWEVER...AS TEMPS FALL BACK SAT NIGHT...ALONG WITH THE DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FEED...WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP. BIG
PROBLEM WILL BE JUST AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE TEMPS FALL BELOW
FREEZING WHICH MAY MEAN FREEZING DRIZZLE. DOES NOT TAKE MUCH TO
GET GLAZING ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ACROSS INTERIOR
E MA INTO RI...POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER W. WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW...MIGHT SEE UP TO 1/2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH
LEFTOVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THOUGH TEND TO TAPER OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST
AND...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S...WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. THE
MARITIMES SURFACE HIGH REMAINS PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE...WHICH WILL
HELP SHIFT THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THIS LOW WELL OFFSHORE /SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK/. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL LIGHT
PRECIP REACHING THE COAST MAINLY MON NIGHT INTO TUE. EXPECT MAINLY
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH SPOTTY BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING
PRECIP AROUND DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS N CT/N RI INTO S CENTRAL MA.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON TUE TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE S- SE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN
PLACE FOR WIND SHIFT AMONGST OP MODELS.

ONCE THE LOW EXITS LATE TUE...WILL ALREADY START TO SEE MOISTURE
FEED UP THE COAST FROM THE DEVELOPING GULF LOW...SO NOT MUCH OF A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

TUESDAY/S LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE WILL RUN UP TO 11.6 FT IN BOSTON
AND...WITH ANY EASTERLY WIND FLOW...THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. WILL MONITOR THIS ASPECT.

WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS.

SECONDARY LOW FROM THE PARENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
DEEPENS AS IT SHIFTS N. MODELS TRY TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM CLOSE TO OR
JUST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THOUGH STILL
TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE. AT THIS POINT...WILL SEE HEAVIEST SLUG OF
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS LATE WED INTO WED EVENING. GOOD TROPICAL
CONNECTION CONTINUES WITH PWATS FROM 1.25 TO 1.4 INCHES...RUNNING
ABOUT +2SD TO +3SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER. GOOD SHOT OF
MILD AIR WORKS IN ON SE- S WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL H925
AND H85 FROM 50-65 KT...AND AT LEAST SOME WILL MIX DOWN ESPECIALLY
IF THE LOW PRES PASSES CLOSER /WITH RAPIDLY FALLING PRESSURE/.
HAVE HIGHS ON WED UP TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...BUT COULD BE EVEN HIGHER WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS.

CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS THE DRY SLOT SHOULD WORK INTO THE REGION
LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING...SO PRECIP SHOULD END. WILL
STILL SEE GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH QUICKLY SHIFTING TO W-SW AND
GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST.

MAY NEED HEADLINES WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING IN HEAVY RAINFALL WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG WINDS
BOTH WED AND THU...AND MAYBE EVEN FOR COASTAL CONCERNS. NOTING
ASTRO HIGH TIDES CONTINUE /11.7 AND 11.5 FT AT BOSTON
RESPECTIVELY/... THOUGH TIMING OF WIND SHIFT MAY COME INTO PLAY
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING.
ONCE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...EXPECT A RATHER FAST
UPPER W FLOW IN PLACE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE MONADNOCKS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. ANOTHER LOW MIGHT MOVE INTO W NY STATE
FRI NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. TREND SHOULD
BE FOR CLOUD DECK TO BECOME SCT TOWARD 00Z..ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. W/NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LINGERING MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST. DIMINISHING WIND.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH EXTENT OF ANY MVFR
CIGS. WE HAVE MAINLY VFR IN THE TAFS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR...BUT
IT IS POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS COULD BE MORE EXPANSIVE IF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. LATER FORECASTS
WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS
FROM THE OCEAN EXPANDING WEST ACROSS E MA. LOW PROB FOR SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD AND ACK AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB
FOR MVFR CIGS FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS SCATTER
OUT THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS MAY RETURN FRI BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS. E MA INTO RI...AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR IN WIDELY SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MON NIGHT/TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...W/NW GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL LINGER OVER THE WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SCA HEADLINES WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING OVER THE OUTER EASTERN
WATERS...BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW SCA. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND
THE SCA FOR SEAS INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...N/NW WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...EXPECT E-NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 182234
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
534 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT STILL COULD BRING A PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A MUCH STRONGER STORM IS LIKELY TO BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRES MOVES NE FROM THE MARITIMES BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WHICH WILL KEEP A
FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. WHILE
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...THERE IS ENOUGH PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO KEEP THE WINDS UP SO TEMPS WILL NOT DROP OFF THAT
QUICKLY. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 20S...WITH LOWER 30S OVER THE OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE GRT LAKES WITH NW FLOW ACROSS NEW
ENG. TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST AS NAM INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...WHILE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS. GIVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW IS STILL
NW...WE WILL LEAN MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN NAM WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE 3-5 DEGREES COLDER THAN
TODAY GIVEN COOLING AT 925 MB...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR
30 HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA TO UPPER 30S IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO W NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT
FORCING IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED
SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NE AND MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING LOW MOISTURE BACKING IN ACROSS SE NEW ENG
OVERNIGHT. DELTA T FROM SST TO THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IS
AROUND 13C WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR OCEAN EFFECT AND OCEAN INDUCED
CAPES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
INCREASING. MODELS DO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING SO THERE MAY
BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CAPE COD AND ACK OVERNIGHT
AND WE HAVE SOME LOW CHC POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUN...WITH A PERIOD OF
  DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TUE BUT COULD
  STILL SEE LIGHT PRECIP
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
  WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON LARGE
SCALE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...WITH A RATHER
POTENT BUT FAST MOVING ONE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN TIMEFRAME WHICH IS
AIDED WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE MOISTURE...WITH A SECOND WEAK LOW FOR
LATE MON INTO TUE BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP.

STILL QUITE A FEW PLACEMENT AND TIMING ISSUES WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP H5 CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AROUND THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME...THEN ROTATES NE
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BIG
IMPLICATIONS WITH THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
ACROSS THE MID ATLC OR SE U.S. LATE IN THIS PERIOD. SECONDARY/
TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS ON SURFACE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AROUND TUESDAY...THEN WORKS UP ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SE
AND MID ATLC STATES. QUESTION IS IF THIS LOW APPROACHES WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND WED NIGHT.

STILL SEE THE SIGNALS FOR A FAST MOVING STORM WITH MULTIPLE
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS...FIRST FROM THE SOUTH THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST. COULD
EVEN SEE SOME COASTAL IMPACTS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE DURING
WED. TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT THIS FAR OUT.
MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DOING A RATHER GOOD JOB HANDLING GENERAL
FEATURES OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS POINT.

USED A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC INTO THE
MARITIMES DURING THIS WEEKEND...THEN TENDS TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS WITH BLOCKING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. RATHER POTENT SHORT
WAVE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...AIDED
BY A LOW LEVEL E-NE WIND IN PLACE. A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AS SEEN ON BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO WILL SEE SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM E-W DURING SATURDAY. EXPECTING
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING SAT.

HOWEVER...AS TEMPS FALL BACK SAT NIGHT...ALONG WITH THE DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FEED...WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP. BIG
PROBLEM WILL BE JUST AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE TEMPS FALL BELOW
FREEZING WHICH MAY MEAN FREEZING DRIZZLE. DOES NOT TAKE MUCH TO
GET GLAZING ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ACROSS INTERIOR
E MA INTO RI...POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER W. WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW...MIGHT SEE UP TO 1/2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH
LEFTOVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THOUGH TEND TO TAPER OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST
AND...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S...WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. THE
MARITIMES SURFACE HIGH REMAINS PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE...WHICH WILL
HELP SHIFT THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THIS LOW WELL OFFSHORE /SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK/. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL LIGHT
PRECIP REACHING THE COAST MAINLY MON NIGHT INTO TUE. EXPECT MAINLY
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH SPOTTY BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING
PRECIP AROUND DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS N CT/N RI INTO S CENTRAL MA.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON TUE TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE S- SE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN
PLACE FOR WIND SHIFT AMONGST OP MODELS.

ONCE THE LOW EXITS LATE TUE...WILL ALREADY START TO SEE MOISTURE
FEED UP THE COAST FROM THE DEVELOPING GULF LOW...SO NOT MUCH OF A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

TUESDAY/S LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE WILL RUN UP TO 11.6 FT IN BOSTON
AND...WITH ANY EASTERLY WIND FLOW...THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. WILL MONITOR THIS ASPECT.

WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS.

SECONDARY LOW FROM THE PARENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
DEEPENS AS IT SHIFTS N. MODELS TRY TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM CLOSE TO OR
JUST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THOUGH STILL
TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE. AT THIS POINT...WILL SEE HEAVIEST SLUG OF
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS LATE WED INTO WED EVENING. GOOD TROPICAL
CONNECTION CONTINUES WITH PWATS FROM 1.25 TO 1.4 INCHES...RUNNING
ABOUT +2SD TO +3SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER. GOOD SHOT OF
MILD AIR WORKS IN ON SE- S WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL H925
AND H85 FROM 50-65 KT...AND AT LEAST SOME WILL MIX DOWN ESPECIALLY
IF THE LOW PRES PASSES CLOSER /WITH RAPIDLY FALLING PRESSURE/.
HAVE HIGHS ON WED UP TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...BUT COULD BE EVEN HIGHER WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS.

CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS THE DRY SLOT SHOULD WORK INTO THE REGION
LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING...SO PRECIP SHOULD END. WILL
STILL SEE GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH QUICKLY SHIFTING TO W-SW AND
GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST.

MAY NEED HEADLINES WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING IN HEAVY RAINFALL WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG WINDS
BOTH WED AND THU...AND MAYBE EVEN FOR COASTAL CONCERNS. NOTING
ASTRO HIGH TIDES CONTINUE /11.7 AND 11.5 FT AT BOSTON
RESPECTIVELY/... THOUGH TIMING OF WIND SHIFT MAY COME INTO PLAY
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING.
ONCE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...EXPECT A RATHER FAST
UPPER W FLOW IN PLACE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE MONADNOCKS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. ANOTHER LOW MIGHT MOVE INTO W NY STATE
FRI NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. TREND SHOULD
BE FOR CLOUD DECK TO BECOME SCT TOWARD 00Z..ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. W/NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LINGERING MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST. DIMINISHING WIND.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH EXTENT OF ANY MVFR
CIGS. WE HAVE MAINLY VFR IN THE TAFS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR...BUT
IT IS POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS COULD BE MORE EXPANSIVE IF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. LATER FORECASTS
WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS
FROM THE OCEAN EXPANDING WEST ACROSS E MA. LOW PROB FOR SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD AND ACK AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB
FOR MVFR CIGS FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS SCATTER
OUT THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS MAY RETURN FRI BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS. E MA INTO RI...AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR IN WIDELY SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MON NIGHT/TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...W/NW GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL LINGER OVER THE WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SCA HEADLINES WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING OVER THE OUTER EASTERN
WATERS...BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW SCA. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND
THE SCA FOR SEAS INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...N/NW WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...EXPECT E-NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 182234
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
534 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY...BUT STILL COULD BRING A PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A MUCH STRONGER STORM IS LIKELY TO BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRES MOVES NE FROM THE MARITIMES BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WHICH WILL KEEP A
FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. WHILE
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...THERE IS ENOUGH PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO KEEP THE WINDS UP SO TEMPS WILL NOT DROP OFF THAT
QUICKLY. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 20S...WITH LOWER 30S OVER THE OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE GRT LAKES WITH NW FLOW ACROSS NEW
ENG. TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST AS NAM INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...WHILE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS. GIVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW IS STILL
NW...WE WILL LEAN MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN NAM WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE 3-5 DEGREES COLDER THAN
TODAY GIVEN COOLING AT 925 MB...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR
30 HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA TO UPPER 30S IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO W NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT
FORCING IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED
SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NE AND MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING LOW MOISTURE BACKING IN ACROSS SE NEW ENG
OVERNIGHT. DELTA T FROM SST TO THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IS
AROUND 13C WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR OCEAN EFFECT AND OCEAN INDUCED
CAPES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
INCREASING. MODELS DO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING SO THERE MAY
BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CAPE COD AND ACK OVERNIGHT
AND WE HAVE SOME LOW CHC POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUN...WITH A PERIOD OF
  DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE TUE BUT COULD
  STILL SEE LIGHT PRECIP
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
  WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON LARGE
SCALE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...WITH A RATHER
POTENT BUT FAST MOVING ONE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN TIMEFRAME WHICH IS
AIDED WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE MOISTURE...WITH A SECOND WEAK LOW FOR
LATE MON INTO TUE BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP.

STILL QUITE A FEW PLACEMENT AND TIMING ISSUES WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP H5 CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AROUND THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME...THEN ROTATES NE
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BIG
IMPLICATIONS WITH THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
ACROSS THE MID ATLC OR SE U.S. LATE IN THIS PERIOD. SECONDARY/
TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS ON SURFACE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AROUND TUESDAY...THEN WORKS UP ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SE
AND MID ATLC STATES. QUESTION IS IF THIS LOW APPROACHES WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND WED NIGHT.

STILL SEE THE SIGNALS FOR A FAST MOVING STORM WITH MULTIPLE
IMPACTS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS...FIRST FROM THE SOUTH THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST. COULD
EVEN SEE SOME COASTAL IMPACTS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE DURING
WED. TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT THIS FAR OUT.
MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DOING A RATHER GOOD JOB HANDLING GENERAL
FEATURES OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS POINT.

USED A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC INTO THE
MARITIMES DURING THIS WEEKEND...THEN TENDS TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS WITH BLOCKING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. RATHER POTENT SHORT
WAVE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...AIDED
BY A LOW LEVEL E-NE WIND IN PLACE. A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AS SEEN ON BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO WILL SEE SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM E-W DURING SATURDAY. EXPECTING
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING SAT.

HOWEVER...AS TEMPS FALL BACK SAT NIGHT...ALONG WITH THE DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FEED...WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP. BIG
PROBLEM WILL BE JUST AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE TEMPS FALL BELOW
FREEZING WHICH MAY MEAN FREEZING DRIZZLE. DOES NOT TAKE MUCH TO
GET GLAZING ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ACROSS INTERIOR
E MA INTO RI...POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER W. WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW...MIGHT SEE UP TO 1/2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH
LEFTOVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THOUGH TEND TO TAPER OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST
AND...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S...WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. THE
MARITIMES SURFACE HIGH REMAINS PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE...WHICH WILL
HELP SHIFT THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THIS LOW WELL OFFSHORE /SE OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK/. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL LIGHT
PRECIP REACHING THE COAST MAINLY MON NIGHT INTO TUE. EXPECT MAINLY
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH SPOTTY BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING
PRECIP AROUND DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS N CT/N RI INTO S CENTRAL MA.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON TUE TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE S- SE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN
PLACE FOR WIND SHIFT AMONGST OP MODELS.

ONCE THE LOW EXITS LATE TUE...WILL ALREADY START TO SEE MOISTURE
FEED UP THE COAST FROM THE DEVELOPING GULF LOW...SO NOT MUCH OF A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

TUESDAY/S LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE WILL RUN UP TO 11.6 FT IN BOSTON
AND...WITH ANY EASTERLY WIND FLOW...THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. WILL MONITOR THIS ASPECT.

WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS.

SECONDARY LOW FROM THE PARENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
DEEPENS AS IT SHIFTS N. MODELS TRY TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM CLOSE TO OR
JUST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THOUGH STILL
TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE. AT THIS POINT...WILL SEE HEAVIEST SLUG OF
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS LATE WED INTO WED EVENING. GOOD TROPICAL
CONNECTION CONTINUES WITH PWATS FROM 1.25 TO 1.4 INCHES...RUNNING
ABOUT +2SD TO +3SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER. GOOD SHOT OF
MILD AIR WORKS IN ON SE- S WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL H925
AND H85 FROM 50-65 KT...AND AT LEAST SOME WILL MIX DOWN ESPECIALLY
IF THE LOW PRES PASSES CLOSER /WITH RAPIDLY FALLING PRESSURE/.
HAVE HIGHS ON WED UP TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...BUT COULD BE EVEN HIGHER WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS.

CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS THE DRY SLOT SHOULD WORK INTO THE REGION
LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING...SO PRECIP SHOULD END. WILL
STILL SEE GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH QUICKLY SHIFTING TO W-SW AND
GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT...HIGHEST ALONG THE S COAST.

MAY NEED HEADLINES WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING IN HEAVY RAINFALL WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG WINDS
BOTH WED AND THU...AND MAYBE EVEN FOR COASTAL CONCERNS. NOTING
ASTRO HIGH TIDES CONTINUE /11.7 AND 11.5 FT AT BOSTON
RESPECTIVELY/... THOUGH TIMING OF WIND SHIFT MAY COME INTO PLAY
FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING.
ONCE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...EXPECT A RATHER FAST
UPPER W FLOW IN PLACE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE MONADNOCKS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. ANOTHER LOW MIGHT MOVE INTO W NY STATE
FRI NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. TREND SHOULD
BE FOR CLOUD DECK TO BECOME SCT TOWARD 00Z..ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. W/NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LINGERING MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST. DIMINISHING WIND.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH EXTENT OF ANY MVFR
CIGS. WE HAVE MAINLY VFR IN THE TAFS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR...BUT
IT IS POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS COULD BE MORE EXPANSIVE IF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. LATER FORECASTS
WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS
FROM THE OCEAN EXPANDING WEST ACROSS E MA. LOW PROB FOR SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD AND ACK AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB
FOR MVFR CIGS FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS SCATTER
OUT THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS MAY RETURN FRI BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS. E MA INTO RI...AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR IN WIDELY SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MON NIGHT/TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...W/NW GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL LINGER OVER THE WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SCA HEADLINES WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING OVER THE OUTER EASTERN
WATERS...BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW SCA. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND
THE SCA FOR SEAS INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...N/NW WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...EXPECT E-NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-7 FT...HIGHEST ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 182128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING SOUTHWARD
AROUND THIS DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND SOUTHEAST CANADA MAY BRING SOME CLEARING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EST...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION...AFTER SOME OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRED
ACROSS SOME VALLEY AREAS...ESP WITHIN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MOST OF
THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW BREAKS AT TIMES
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AS THE WINDS
WITHIN THE H925-H850 LAYER DECREASE...THE ASSOCIATED DOWNSLOPING
WILL CEASE...AND THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY BREAKS IN VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING FROM THE SHALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND MOHAWK VALLEY. CLOUD TOP TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE -8 TO -10 C RANGE...SO EXPECT ANY SNOW TO BE RATHER GRAINY IN
CONSISTENCY...AND NOT VERY EFFICIENT AT ACCUMULATING...DESPITE
SOME REDUCED VSBYS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW GRAINS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT...AND MAY EXPAND EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND BERKSHIRES...ESP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR
GREATER FORCING LIFT TO DEVELOP. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS THAT OCCUR
OVERNIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A COATING...TO LESS THAN AN
INCH...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

SINCE WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT...HAVE WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR FORECAST MIN TEMPS...WITH
GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN VALLEY TO THE N AND W.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN WARMER MINS OCCUR. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S...WITH SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...ESP
WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF UP TO...OR A BIT OVER 30 MPH MAY
OCCUR THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...YET AGAIN...CLOUDS MAY WIN OUT...ESP FROM ALBANY AND
POINTS N AND W. A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS AND SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS...AS THE INVERSION LEVEL LOWERS
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...AND INITIALLY TRAPS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN
APPEAR TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...AGAIN MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID
30S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL A BIT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
SHALLOW...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...BEFORE HOLDING
STEADY OR RISING SLIGHTLY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD SEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM N TO S FRI NT...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR SAT
MORNING. BY SAT AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE S AND E...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. FRI NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S IN MOST
VALLEYS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

SAT NT...AS A SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SE CANADA...A LIGHT
SE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING.
ALSO...AS THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE ASCENDING
TERRAIN...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS COULD
DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY LATE AT NIGHT...ESP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SE CATSKILLS.
SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IF
CLOUDS ARRIVE MORE SLOWLY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
IMPACTING ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES...GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM QUEBEC.  SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN GREENS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE -5C TO -7C RANGE.  TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE DEC WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M30S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC
HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING
OVER THE NRN-CNTRL PLAINS WITH A DEVELOPING UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE.  LOWS WILL BEN IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACK
PARK...AND SRN GREENS.  BY MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS N/NE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CONUS.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE DAY...AND
SOME OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL COMMENCE BY THE  AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY TO
START...SO A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE.  THE BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SFC DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL AT NIGHT
ACCORDING TO GFS/ECMWF/GEFS.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF AND CAN GGEM WITH THE ONSET OF THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN.  HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM U20S TO M30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT TO MID 30S TO L40S SOUTH AND EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE BETTER QG LIFT DUE TO THE WARM
ADVECTION IMPACTS THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  SNOW AND RAIN MAY
TRANSITION TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...AS THE WEDGE OF SUBFREEZING AREA
BELOW H850 ERODES.  THE COASTAL LOW DOES NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND WITH A PRIMARY LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.  THE SFC WAVE MOVES FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM...AND ANY LIGHT MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN BY THE LATE MORNING.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE THE MID 20S OVER THE DACKS TO LOWER TO
MID 30S FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M30S TO L40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS... THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH REVS UP AND
TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HELPS ANOTHER SFC CYCLONE FORM OVER THE
CAROLINAS TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAYBE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN BEFORE
THIS NEXT WAVE RACES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.  AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE
COASTAL WAVE LOOKS TO TAKE AN INLAND TRACK ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO
FLOOD INTO MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  STRONG QG OMEGA
OCCURS DUE TO STRONG CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING AND
DEEPENING WAVE...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS NYC BY WED AFTERNOON.  THE H850
WINDS INCREASE TO 35-50+ KTS FROM THE E/SE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IT
COULD BE QUITE WINDY...AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO 975 HPA
OR BY EARLY WED EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM THEN HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND COULD EVEN FORM...IF THE
WAVE TRACKS ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH
THE GEFS MEAN HAS THE WAVE AS FAR WEST AT THE KBUF-KROC CORRIDOR.
PERIODS OF RAIN... POSSIBLY HEAVY COULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT IF THE
TRACK IS FURTHER EAST IT COULD BE SNOW AND RAIN FOR A LARGER POTION
OF THE AREA.  HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
M40S TO L50S SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPITAL REGION...AND U30S TO L40S.
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS THE STORM DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO BELOW
970 HPA OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC.  MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE REGION.  ANY ACCUMS LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS...BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GET
INTO EXACT SNOW ACCUMS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S CHRISTMAS
EVE...AND 30S TO L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING AWAY VERY SLOWLY...BUT
CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.

AT 1245 PM EST...WE WERE STILL DEALING WITH LOW MVFR CIGS AT KPSF
AND MVFR CIGS AT KALB. WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 00Z AT KALB AND HIGH MVFR AT KPSF...BUT CIGS LIKELY PERSISTING.
AT KGFL...CIGS MIGHT ACTUALLY DIP BACK TO MVFR AFTER 02Z. AT
KPOU...VFR CIGS LOOK TO BECOME SCATTERED BY 00Z DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OF THE CATSKILLS...AND WE EXPECT SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...WE ANTICIPATE ALL THE TAFS SITES TO BE VFR...SCT
AT KPOU...WITH CIGS ABOVE THE 3000 FOOT THRESHOLD AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES.

THE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...AVERAGING AROUND 5-10 KTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES FROM A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 182116
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING SOUTHWARD
AROUND THIS DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND SOUTHEAST CANADA MAY BRING SOME CLEARING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EST...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION...AFTER SOME OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRED
ACROSS SOME VALLEY AREAS...ESP WITHIN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MOST OF
THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW BREAKS AT TIMES
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AS THE WINDS
WITHIN THE H925-H850 LAYER DECREASE...THE ASSOCIATED DOWNSLOPING
WILL CEASE...AND THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY BREAKS IN VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING FROM THE SHALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND MOHAWK VALLEY. CLOUD TOP TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE -8 TO -10 C RANGE...SO EXPECT ANY SNOW TO BE RATHER GRAINY IN
CONSISTENCY...AND NOT VERY EFFICIENT AT ACCUMULATING...DESPITE
SOME REDUCED VSBYS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW GRAINS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT...AND MAY EXPAND EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND BERKSHIRES...ESP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR
GREATER FORCING LIFT TO DEVELOP. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS THAT OCCUR
OVERNIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A COATING...TO LESS THAN AN
INCH...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

SINCE WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT...HAVE WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR FORECAST MIN TEMPS...WITH
GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN VALLEY TO THE N AND W.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN WARMER MINS OCCUR. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S...WITH SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...ESP
WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF UP TO...OR A BIT OVER 30 MPH MAY
OCCUR THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...YET AGAIN...CLOUDS MAY WIN OUT...ESP FROM ALBANY AND
POINTS N AND W. A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS AND SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS...AS THE INVERSION LEVEL LOWERS
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...AND INITIALLY TRAPS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN
APPEAR TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...AGAIN MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID
30S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL A BIT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
SHALLOW...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...BEFORE HOLDING
STEADY OR RISING SLIGHTLY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD SEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM N TO S FRI NT...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR SAT
MORNING. BY SAT AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE S AND E...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. FRI NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S IN MOST
VALLEYS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

SAT NT...AS A SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SE CANADA...A LIGHT
SE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING.
ALSO...AS THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE ASCENDING
TERRAIN...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS COULD
DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY LATE AT NIGHT...ESP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SE CATSKILLS.
SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IF
CLOUDS ARRIVE MORE SLOWLY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING AWAY VERY SLOWLY...BUT
CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.

AT 1245 PM EST...WE WERE STILL DEALING WITH LOW MVFR CIGS AT KPSF
AND MVFR CIGS AT KALB. WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 00Z AT KALB AND HIGH MVFR AT KPSF...BUT CIGS LIKELY PERSISTING.
AT KGFL...CIGS MIGHT ACTUALLY DIP BACK TO MVFR AFTER 02Z. AT
KPOU...VFR CIGS LOOK TO BECOME SCATTERED BY 00Z DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OF THE CATSKILLS...AND WE EXPECT SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...WE ANTICIPATE ALL THE TAFS SITES TO BE VFR...SCT
AT KPOU...WITH CIGS ABOVE THE 3000 FOOT THRESHOLD AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES.

THE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...AVERAGING AROUND 5-10 KTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES FROM A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA







000
FXUS61 KBOX 181945
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
245 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY...WITH A MUCH STRONGER STORM LIKELY BRINGING HEAVY RAIN
AND WIND TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DRY BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRES MOVES NE FROM THE MARITIMES BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WHICH WILL KEEP A
FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. WHILE
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...THERE IS ENOUGH PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO KEEP THE WINDS UP SO TEMPS WILL NOT DROP OFF THAT
QUICKLY. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 20S...WITH LOWER 30S OVER THE OUTER
CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE GT LAKES WITH NW FLOW ACROSS NEW ENG.
TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST AS NAM INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW INVERSION WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS. GIVEN LOW LEVEL FLOW IS STILL NW...WE
WILL LEAN MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN NAM WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE 3-5 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY GIVEN
COOLING AT 925 MB...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 30 HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA TO UPPER 30S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO W NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT
FORCING IS WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED
SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NE AND MODELS
INDICATE INCREASING LOW MOISTURE BACKING IN ACROSS SE NEW ENG
OVERNIGHT. DELTA T FROM SST TO THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IS
AROUND 13C WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR OCEAN EFFECT AND OCEAN INDUCED
CAPES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
INCREASING. MODELS DO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING SO THERE MAY
BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CAPE COD AND ACK OVERNIGHT
AND WE HAVE SOME LOW CHC POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET TO RETURN
TO THE U.S. AS THE STRONG W PACIFIC JET TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE PAC NW. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER SE CANADA SHOULD ALSO
HELP DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK AND LIKELY CLOSE
OFF AS IT SWINGS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS ON THIS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

DURING THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. APPEARS THAT A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
LOW OVER THE BENCHMARK WHERE THE EC PUSHES WELL EASTWARD THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK SO
COASTAL REGIONS HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPART
APPEARS ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY
LOW CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS STILL A TAD FASTER COMPARED TO
THE EC BUT OVERALL EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT 6+ DAYS OUT.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE CAPE. SURFACE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE IS 14C
WHICH IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR THE CAPE.
AM NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT A DUSTING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD EXPECT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF MOVING ONSHORE AND WITH MOISTURE AND THE LIFT
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL THE MOISTURE SATURATE ENOUGH TO -6C. IF NOT
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE SO A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE PER SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE BENCHMARK AND WELL OFFSHORE. BELIEVE A SOLUTION FATHER
OUT TO SEA IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. REGARDLESS A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE COASTAL AREAS HAVING THE BEST SHOT TO SEE PRECIP. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
DOMINATE OUT AHEAD OF STRONGER SYSTEM TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE 11.6 IN BOSTON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
WITH ANY EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
6 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A
POTENT STORM WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL BE LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS
MEXICO... PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN +1 TO +3
/OR HIGHER/...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIND ISSUES. GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS
SHOWING A 40 TO 50 KT JET AT 925 MB WHICH MAY WARRANT WIND
ADVISORIES BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER
JET IS POSSIBLE. LASTLY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE
ADDRESS AS HIGH TIDE ON WED AND THUS ARE 11.7 AND 11.5 RESPECTIVELY.
ANY ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL PUSH THE TIDE ABOVE FLOOD SO COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. TREND SHOULD
BE FOR CLOUD DECK TO BECOME SCT TOWARD 00Z..ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. W/NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LINGERING MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST. DIMINISHING WIND.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH EXTENT OF ANY MVFR
CIGS. WE HAVE MAINLY VFR IN THE TAFS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR...BUT
IT IS POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS COULD BE MORE EXPANSIVE IF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. LATER FORECASTS
WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS
FROM THE OCEAN EXPANDING WEST ACROSS E MA. LOW PROB FOR SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE COD AND ACK AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB
FOR MVFR CIGS FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS SCATTER
OUT THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS MAY RETURN FRI BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANY SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...W/NW GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL LINGER OVER THE WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SCA HEADLINES WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING OVER THE OUTER EASTERN
WATERS...BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW SCA. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND
THE SCA FOR SEAS INTO FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...N/NW WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-232-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ233>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 181758
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EST...STILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/TUG HILL REGION INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. CLOUD TOP TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE -8 TO -10 C
RANGE...SO SNOWFLAKES MOST LIKELY ARE OF A GRAINY CONSISTENCY
RATHER THAN LARGE AND DENDRITIC...AND THEREFORE EFFICIENT AT
REDUCING VSBYS...BUT NOT ACCUMULATING VERY WELL. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS IN THIS REGION OF GENERALLY ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
THROUGH SUNSET. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS WEST FACING...UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES.

ELSEWHERE...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VALLEY
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN EVEN OCCASIONALLY
EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION...AND SE
VT. STRONG DOWNSLOPING DUE TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY
ALLOWING FOR THESE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...AND SHOULD PERSIST
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH SUNSET...MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE FAR SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. IN
THESE AREAS WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUN OCCUR...MAX TEMPS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE...VALLEY AREAS SHOULD GENERALLY
HOLD BETWEEN 35 AND 40...WITH MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS GENERALLY
REACHING 30-35...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 1800 FT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA MAY ONLY JUST REACH
AROUND 30.

BRISK WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...GENERALLY AT 10-20
MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH...ESP WITHIN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
LATE AT NIGHT.

CLOUDS LOOK TO HOLD TOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING AWAY VERY SLOWLY...BUT
CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.

AT 1245 PM EST...WE WERE STILL DEALING WITH LOW MVFR CIGS AT KPSF
AND MVFR CIGS AT KALB. WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 00Z AT KALB AND HIGH MVFR AT KPSF...BUT CIGS LIKELY PERSISTING.
AT KGFL...CIGS MIGHT ACTUALLY DIP BACK TO MVFR AFTER 02Z. AT
KPOU...VFR CIGS LOOK TO BECOME SCATTERED BY 00Z DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OF THE CATSKILLS...AND WE EXPECT SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...WE ANTICIPATE ALL THE TAFS SITES TO BE VFR...SCT
AT KPOU...WITH CIGS ABOVE THE 3000 FOOT THRESHOLD AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES.

THE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AVERAGING
AROUND 5-10KTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/HWJIV/IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 181749
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...RADAR COVERAGE INDICATED THAT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DECREASED IN COVERAGE...AS THE UPPER AIR LOW FINALLY BEGINS PULLING
AWAY. HOWEVER WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE
WEAK SHORT WAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH LATER TODAY.

NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST TWEAKING THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT DECREASE POPS...STILL KEEP
THEM IN MOST PLACES (OUTSIDE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY). ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.


THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA HAS BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL PROBABLY NOT DEEPEN ANY MORE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO FILL BY THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING AWAY VERY SLOWLY...BUT
CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.

AT 1245 PM EST...WE WERE STILL DEALING WITH LOW MVFR CIGS AT KPSF
AND MVFR CIGS AT KALB. WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 00Z AT KALB AND HIGH MVFR AT KPSF...BUT CIGS LIKELY PERSISTING.
AT KGFL...CIGS MIGHT ACTUALLY DIP BACK TO MVFR AFTER 02Z. AT
KPOU...VFR CIGS LOOK TO BECOME SCATTERED BY 00Z DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OF THE CATSKILLS...AND WE EXPECT SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...WE ANTICIPATE ALL THE TAFS SITES TO BE VFR...SCT
AT KPOU...WITH CIGS ABOVE THE 3000 FOOT THRESHOLD AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES.

THE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AVERAGING
AROUND 5-10KTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 181749
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...RADAR COVERAGE INDICATED THAT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DECREASED IN COVERAGE...AS THE UPPER AIR LOW FINALLY BEGINS PULLING
AWAY. HOWEVER WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE
WEAK SHORT WAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH LATER TODAY.

NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST TWEAKING THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT DECREASE POPS...STILL KEEP
THEM IN MOST PLACES (OUTSIDE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY). ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.


THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA HAS BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL PROBABLY NOT DEEPEN ANY MORE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO FILL BY THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING AWAY VERY SLOWLY...BUT
CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.

AT 1245 PM EST...WE WERE STILL DEALING WITH LOW MVFR CIGS AT KPSF
AND MVFR CIGS AT KALB. WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 00Z AT KALB AND HIGH MVFR AT KPSF...BUT CIGS LIKELY PERSISTING.
AT KGFL...CIGS MIGHT ACTUALLY DIP BACK TO MVFR AFTER 02Z. AT
KPOU...VFR CIGS LOOK TO BECOME SCATTERED BY 00Z DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OF THE CATSKILLS...AND WE EXPECT SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...WE ANTICIPATE ALL THE TAFS SITES TO BE VFR...SCT
AT KPOU...WITH CIGS ABOVE THE 3000 FOOT THRESHOLD AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES.

THE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AVERAGING
AROUND 5-10KTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA










000
FXUS61 KBOX 181741
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1241 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY.
AN ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...
LOTS OF DIURNAL STRATO-CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SNE WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS -26C ACTING ON RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY W/NW
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN A
BIT...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE EVEN IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THEREFORE...LOW TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO
QUEBEC.  WHILE WERE NOT TOO COLD AT 850 MB...THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR TOO OOZE SOUTH...KEEPING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  SHOULD SEE A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LESS WIND THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET TO RETURN
TO THE U.S. AS THE STRONG W PACIFIC JET TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE PAC NW. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER SE CANADA SHOULD ALSO
HELP DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK AND LIKELY CLOSE
OFF AS IT SWINGS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS ON THIS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

DURING THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. APPEARS THAT A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
LOW OVER THE BENCHMARK WHERE THE EC PUSHES WELL EASTWARD THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK SO
COASTAL REGIONS HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPART
APPEARS ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY
LOW CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS STILL A TAD FASTER COMPARED TO
THE EC BUT OVERALL EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT 6+ DAYS OUT.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE CAPE. SURFACE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE IS 14C
WHICH IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR THE CAPE.
AM NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT A DUSTING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD EXPECT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF MOVING ONSHORE AND WITH MOISTURE AND THE LIFT
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL THE MOISTURE SATURATE ENOUGH TO -6C. IF NOT
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE SO A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE PER SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE BENCHMARK AND WELL OFFSHORE. BELIEVE A SOLUTION FATHER
OUT TO SEA IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. REGARDLESS A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE COASTAL AREAS HAVING THE BEST SHOT TO SEE PRECIP. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
DOMINATE OUT AHEAD OF STRONGER SYSTEM TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE 11.6 IN BOSTON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
WITH ANY EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
6 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A
POTENT STORM WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL BE LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS
MEXICO... PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN +1 TO +3
/OR HIGHER/...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIND ISSUES. GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS
SHOWING A 40 TO 50 KT JET AT 925 MB WHICH MAY WARRANT WIND
ADVISORIES BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER
JET IS POSSIBLE. LASTLY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE
ADDRESS AS HIGH TIDE ON WED AND THUS ARE 11.7 AND 11.5 RESPECTIVELY.
ANY ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL PUSH THE TIDE ABOVE FLOOD SO COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. TREND SHOULD
BE FOR CLOUD DECK TO BECOME SCT TOWARD 00Z..ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. W/NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LINGERING MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST. DIMINISHING WIND.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH EXTENT OF ANY MVFR
CIGS. WE HAVE MAINLY VFR IN THE TAFS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR...BUT
IT IS POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS COULD BE MORE EXPANSIVE IF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. LATER FORECASTS
WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS
FROM THE OCEAN EXPANDING WEST ACROSS E MA. LOW PROB FOR SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE OUTER CAPE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB
FOR MVFR CIGS FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS SCATTER
OUT THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS MAY RETURN FRI BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANY SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS.  A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OUTER-WATERS...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR GALE WARNINGS.

TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME BUT STILL THINK WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.  STILL EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 20
KNOTS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WATERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181741
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1241 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY.
AN ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...
LOTS OF DIURNAL STRATO-CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SNE WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS -26C ACTING ON RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY W/NW
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN A
BIT...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE EVEN IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THEREFORE...LOW TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO
QUEBEC.  WHILE WERE NOT TOO COLD AT 850 MB...THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR TOO OOZE SOUTH...KEEPING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  SHOULD SEE A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LESS WIND THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET TO RETURN
TO THE U.S. AS THE STRONG W PACIFIC JET TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE PAC NW. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER SE CANADA SHOULD ALSO
HELP DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK AND LIKELY CLOSE
OFF AS IT SWINGS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS ON THIS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

DURING THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. APPEARS THAT A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
LOW OVER THE BENCHMARK WHERE THE EC PUSHES WELL EASTWARD THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK SO
COASTAL REGIONS HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPART
APPEARS ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY
LOW CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS STILL A TAD FASTER COMPARED TO
THE EC BUT OVERALL EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT 6+ DAYS OUT.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE CAPE. SURFACE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE IS 14C
WHICH IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR THE CAPE.
AM NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT A DUSTING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD EXPECT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF MOVING ONSHORE AND WITH MOISTURE AND THE LIFT
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL THE MOISTURE SATURATE ENOUGH TO -6C. IF NOT
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE SO A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE PER SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE BENCHMARK AND WELL OFFSHORE. BELIEVE A SOLUTION FATHER
OUT TO SEA IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. REGARDLESS A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE COASTAL AREAS HAVING THE BEST SHOT TO SEE PRECIP. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
DOMINATE OUT AHEAD OF STRONGER SYSTEM TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE 11.6 IN BOSTON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
WITH ANY EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
6 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A
POTENT STORM WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL BE LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS
MEXICO... PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN +1 TO +3
/OR HIGHER/...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIND ISSUES. GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS
SHOWING A 40 TO 50 KT JET AT 925 MB WHICH MAY WARRANT WIND
ADVISORIES BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER
JET IS POSSIBLE. LASTLY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE
ADDRESS AS HIGH TIDE ON WED AND THUS ARE 11.7 AND 11.5 RESPECTIVELY.
ANY ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL PUSH THE TIDE ABOVE FLOOD SO COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. TREND SHOULD
BE FOR CLOUD DECK TO BECOME SCT TOWARD 00Z..ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. W/NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LINGERING MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST. DIMINISHING WIND.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH EXTENT OF ANY MVFR
CIGS. WE HAVE MAINLY VFR IN THE TAFS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR...BUT
IT IS POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS COULD BE MORE EXPANSIVE IF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. LATER FORECASTS
WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS
FROM THE OCEAN EXPANDING WEST ACROSS E MA. LOW PROB FOR SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE OUTER CAPE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB
FOR MVFR CIGS FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS SCATTER
OUT THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS MAY RETURN FRI BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANY SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS.  A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OUTER-WATERS...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR GALE WARNINGS.

TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME BUT STILL THINK WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.  STILL EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 20
KNOTS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WATERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181741
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1241 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY.
AN ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...
LOTS OF DIURNAL STRATO-CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SNE WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS -26C ACTING ON RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY W/NW
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN A
BIT...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE EVEN IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THEREFORE...LOW TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO
QUEBEC.  WHILE WERE NOT TOO COLD AT 850 MB...THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR TOO OOZE SOUTH...KEEPING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  SHOULD SEE A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LESS WIND THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET TO RETURN
TO THE U.S. AS THE STRONG W PACIFIC JET TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE PAC NW. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER SE CANADA SHOULD ALSO
HELP DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK AND LIKELY CLOSE
OFF AS IT SWINGS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS ON THIS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

DURING THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. APPEARS THAT A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
LOW OVER THE BENCHMARK WHERE THE EC PUSHES WELL EASTWARD THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK SO
COASTAL REGIONS HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPART
APPEARS ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY
LOW CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS STILL A TAD FASTER COMPARED TO
THE EC BUT OVERALL EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT 6+ DAYS OUT.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE CAPE. SURFACE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE IS 14C
WHICH IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR THE CAPE.
AM NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT A DUSTING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD EXPECT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF MOVING ONSHORE AND WITH MOISTURE AND THE LIFT
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL THE MOISTURE SATURATE ENOUGH TO -6C. IF NOT
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE SO A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE PER SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE BENCHMARK AND WELL OFFSHORE. BELIEVE A SOLUTION FATHER
OUT TO SEA IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. REGARDLESS A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE COASTAL AREAS HAVING THE BEST SHOT TO SEE PRECIP. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
DOMINATE OUT AHEAD OF STRONGER SYSTEM TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE 11.6 IN BOSTON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
WITH ANY EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
6 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A
POTENT STORM WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL BE LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS
MEXICO... PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN +1 TO +3
/OR HIGHER/...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIND ISSUES. GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS
SHOWING A 40 TO 50 KT JET AT 925 MB WHICH MAY WARRANT WIND
ADVISORIES BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER
JET IS POSSIBLE. LASTLY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE
ADDRESS AS HIGH TIDE ON WED AND THUS ARE 11.7 AND 11.5 RESPECTIVELY.
ANY ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL PUSH THE TIDE ABOVE FLOOD SO COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. TREND SHOULD
BE FOR CLOUD DECK TO BECOME SCT TOWARD 00Z..ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. W/NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LINGERING MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST. DIMINISHING WIND.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH EXTENT OF ANY MVFR
CIGS. WE HAVE MAINLY VFR IN THE TAFS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR...BUT
IT IS POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS COULD BE MORE EXPANSIVE IF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. LATER FORECASTS
WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS
FROM THE OCEAN EXPANDING WEST ACROSS E MA. LOW PROB FOR SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE OUTER CAPE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB
FOR MVFR CIGS FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS SCATTER
OUT THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS MAY RETURN FRI BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANY SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS.  A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OUTER-WATERS...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR GALE WARNINGS.

TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME BUT STILL THINK WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.  STILL EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 20
KNOTS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WATERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181741
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1241 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY.
AN ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...
LOTS OF DIURNAL STRATO-CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SNE WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS -26C ACTING ON RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY W/NW
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN A
BIT...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE EVEN IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THEREFORE...LOW TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO
QUEBEC.  WHILE WERE NOT TOO COLD AT 850 MB...THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR TOO OOZE SOUTH...KEEPING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  SHOULD SEE A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LESS WIND THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET TO RETURN
TO THE U.S. AS THE STRONG W PACIFIC JET TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE PAC NW. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER SE CANADA SHOULD ALSO
HELP DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK AND LIKELY CLOSE
OFF AS IT SWINGS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS ON THIS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

DURING THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. APPEARS THAT A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
LOW OVER THE BENCHMARK WHERE THE EC PUSHES WELL EASTWARD THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK SO
COASTAL REGIONS HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPART
APPEARS ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY
LOW CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS STILL A TAD FASTER COMPARED TO
THE EC BUT OVERALL EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT 6+ DAYS OUT.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE CAPE. SURFACE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE IS 14C
WHICH IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR THE CAPE.
AM NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT A DUSTING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD EXPECT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF MOVING ONSHORE AND WITH MOISTURE AND THE LIFT
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL THE MOISTURE SATURATE ENOUGH TO -6C. IF NOT
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE SO A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE PER SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE BENCHMARK AND WELL OFFSHORE. BELIEVE A SOLUTION FATHER
OUT TO SEA IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. REGARDLESS A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE COASTAL AREAS HAVING THE BEST SHOT TO SEE PRECIP. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
DOMINATE OUT AHEAD OF STRONGER SYSTEM TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE 11.6 IN BOSTON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
WITH ANY EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
6 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A
POTENT STORM WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL BE LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS
MEXICO... PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN +1 TO +3
/OR HIGHER/...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIND ISSUES. GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS
SHOWING A 40 TO 50 KT JET AT 925 MB WHICH MAY WARRANT WIND
ADVISORIES BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER
JET IS POSSIBLE. LASTLY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE
ADDRESS AS HIGH TIDE ON WED AND THUS ARE 11.7 AND 11.5 RESPECTIVELY.
ANY ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL PUSH THE TIDE ABOVE FLOOD SO COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000-3500 FT. TREND SHOULD
BE FOR CLOUD DECK TO BECOME SCT TOWARD 00Z..ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. W/NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LINGERING MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST. DIMINISHING WIND.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH EXTENT OF ANY MVFR
CIGS. WE HAVE MAINLY VFR IN THE TAFS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR...BUT
IT IS POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS COULD BE MORE EXPANSIVE IF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. LATER FORECASTS
WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS
FROM THE OCEAN EXPANDING WEST ACROSS E MA. LOW PROB FOR SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE OUTER CAPE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT LOW PROB
FOR MVFR CIGS FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS SCATTER
OUT THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS MAY RETURN FRI BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANY SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS.  A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OUTER-WATERS...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR GALE WARNINGS.

TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME BUT STILL THINK WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.  STILL EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 20
KNOTS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WATERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181508
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY.
AN ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS E MA ARE DISSIPATING AS THE MID LEVEL
TROF AND COLD POOL MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AS MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN FROM
THE S AND SW. MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
W MA. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE LOWER
40S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN A
BIT...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE EVEN IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THEREFORE...LOW TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO
QUEBEC.  WHILE WERE NOT TOO COLD AT 850 MB...THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR TOO OOZE SOUTH...KEEPING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  SHOULD SEE A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LESS WIND THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET TO RETURN
TO THE U.S. AS THE STRONG W PACIFIC JET TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE PAC NW. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER SE CANADA SHOULD ALSO
HELP DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK AND LIKELY CLOSE
OFF AS IT SWINGS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS ON THIS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

DURING THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. APPEARS THAT A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
LOW OVER THE BENCHMARK WHERE THE EC PUSHES WELL EASTWARD THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK SO
COASTAL REGIONS HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPART
APPEARS ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY
LOW CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS STILL A TAD FASTER COMPARED TO
THE EC BUT OVERALL EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT 6+ DAYS OUT.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE CAPE. SURFACE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE IS 14C
WHICH IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR THE CAPE.
AM NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT A DUSTING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD EXPECT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF MOVING ONSHORE AND WITH MOISTURE AND THE LIFT
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL THE MOISTURE SATURATE ENOUGH TO -6C. IF NOT
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE SO A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE PER SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE BENCHMARK AND WELL OFFSHORE. BELIEVE A SOLUTION FATHER
OUT TO SEA IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. REGARDLESS A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE COASTAL AREAS HAVING THE BEST SHOT TO SEE PRECIP. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
DOMINATE OUT AHEAD OF STRONGER SYSTEM TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE 11.6 IN BOSTON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
WITH ANY EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
6 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A
POTENT STORM WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL BE LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS
MEXICO... PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN +1 TO +3
/OR HIGHER/...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIND ISSUES. GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS
SHOWING A 40 TO 50 KT JET AT 925 MB WHICH MAY WARRANT WIND
ADVISORIES BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER
JET IS POSSIBLE. LASTLY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE
ADDRESS AS HIGH TIDE ON WED AND THUS ARE 11.7 AND 11.5 RESPECTIVELY.
ANY ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL PUSH THE TIDE ABOVE FLOOD SO COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

4 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN W
MA. NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT EXPECTED.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 13Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANY SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS.  A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OUTER-WATERS...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR GALE WARNINGS.

TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME BUT STILL THINK WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.  STILL EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 20
KNOTS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WATERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181508
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY.
AN ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS E MA ARE DISSIPATING AS THE MID LEVEL
TROF AND COLD POOL MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AS MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN FROM
THE S AND SW. MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
W MA. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE LOWER
40S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN A
BIT...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE EVEN IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THEREFORE...LOW TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO
QUEBEC.  WHILE WERE NOT TOO COLD AT 850 MB...THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR TOO OOZE SOUTH...KEEPING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  SHOULD SEE A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LESS WIND THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET TO RETURN
TO THE U.S. AS THE STRONG W PACIFIC JET TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE PAC NW. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER SE CANADA SHOULD ALSO
HELP DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK AND LIKELY CLOSE
OFF AS IT SWINGS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS ON THIS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

DURING THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. APPEARS THAT A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
LOW OVER THE BENCHMARK WHERE THE EC PUSHES WELL EASTWARD THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK SO
COASTAL REGIONS HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPART
APPEARS ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY
LOW CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS STILL A TAD FASTER COMPARED TO
THE EC BUT OVERALL EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT 6+ DAYS OUT.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE CAPE. SURFACE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE IS 14C
WHICH IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR THE CAPE.
AM NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT A DUSTING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD EXPECT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF MOVING ONSHORE AND WITH MOISTURE AND THE LIFT
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL THE MOISTURE SATURATE ENOUGH TO -6C. IF NOT
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE SO A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE PER SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE BENCHMARK AND WELL OFFSHORE. BELIEVE A SOLUTION FATHER
OUT TO SEA IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. REGARDLESS A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE COASTAL AREAS HAVING THE BEST SHOT TO SEE PRECIP. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
DOMINATE OUT AHEAD OF STRONGER SYSTEM TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE 11.6 IN BOSTON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
WITH ANY EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
6 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A
POTENT STORM WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL BE LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS
MEXICO... PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN +1 TO +3
/OR HIGHER/...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIND ISSUES. GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS
SHOWING A 40 TO 50 KT JET AT 925 MB WHICH MAY WARRANT WIND
ADVISORIES BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER
JET IS POSSIBLE. LASTLY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE
ADDRESS AS HIGH TIDE ON WED AND THUS ARE 11.7 AND 11.5 RESPECTIVELY.
ANY ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL PUSH THE TIDE ABOVE FLOOD SO COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

4 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN W
MA. NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT EXPECTED.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 13Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANY SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS.  A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OUTER-WATERS...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR GALE WARNINGS.

TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME BUT STILL THINK WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.  STILL EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 20
KNOTS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WATERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181458
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY.
AN ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS E MA ARE DISSIPATING AS THE MID LEVEL
TROF AND COLD POOL MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
S AND SW. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 30S
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN A
BIT...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE EVEN IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THEREFORE...LOW TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO
QUEBEC.  WHILE WERE NOT TOO COLD AT 850 MB...THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR TOO OOZE SOUTH...KEEPING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  SHOULD SEE A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LESS WIND THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET TO RETURN
TO THE U.S. AS THE STRONG W PACIFIC JET TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE PAC NW. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER SE CANADA SHOULD ALSO
HELP DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK AND LIKELY CLOSE
OFF AS IT SWINGS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS ON THIS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

DURING THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. APPEARS THAT A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
LOW OVER THE BENCHMARK WHERE THE EC PUSHES WELL EASTWARD THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK SO
COASTAL REGIONS HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPART
APPEARS ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY
LOW CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS STILL A TAD FASTER COMPARED TO
THE EC BUT OVERALL EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT 6+ DAYS OUT.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE CAPE. SURFACE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE IS 14C
WHICH IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR THE CAPE.
AM NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT A DUSTING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD EXPECT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF MOVING ONSHORE AND WITH MOISTURE AND THE LIFT
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL THE MOISTURE SATURATE ENOUGH TO -6C. IF NOT
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE SO A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE PER SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE BENCHMARK AND WELL OFFSHORE. BELIEVE A SOLUTION FATHER
OUT TO SEA IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. REGARDLESS A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE COASTAL AREAS HAVING THE BEST SHOT TO SEE PRECIP. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
DOMINATE OUT AHEAD OF STRONGER SYSTEM TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE 11.6 IN BOSTON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
WITH ANY EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
6 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A
POTENT STORM WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL BE LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS
MEXICO... PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN +1 TO +3
/OR HIGHER/...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIND ISSUES. GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS
SHOWING A 40 TO 50 KT JET AT 925 MB WHICH MAY WARRANT WIND
ADVISORIES BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER
JET IS POSSIBLE. LASTLY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE
ADDRESS AS HIGH TIDE ON WED AND THUS ARE 11.7 AND 11.5 RESPECTIVELY.
ANY ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL PUSH THE TIDE ABOVE FLOOD SO COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

4 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN W
MA. NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT EXPECTED.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 13Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANY SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS.  A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OUTER-WATERS...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR GALE WARNINGS.

TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME BUT STILL THINK WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.  STILL EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 20
KNOTS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WATERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181458
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY.
AN ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS E MA ARE DISSIPATING AS THE MID LEVEL
TROF AND COLD POOL MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
S AND SW. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 30S
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN A
BIT...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE EVEN IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THEREFORE...LOW TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO
QUEBEC.  WHILE WERE NOT TOO COLD AT 850 MB...THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR TOO OOZE SOUTH...KEEPING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  SHOULD SEE A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LESS WIND THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET TO RETURN
TO THE U.S. AS THE STRONG W PACIFIC JET TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE PAC NW. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER SE CANADA SHOULD ALSO
HELP DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK AND LIKELY CLOSE
OFF AS IT SWINGS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS ON THIS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

DURING THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. APPEARS THAT A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
LOW OVER THE BENCHMARK WHERE THE EC PUSHES WELL EASTWARD THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK SO
COASTAL REGIONS HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPART
APPEARS ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY
LOW CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS STILL A TAD FASTER COMPARED TO
THE EC BUT OVERALL EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT 6+ DAYS OUT.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE CAPE. SURFACE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE IS 14C
WHICH IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR THE CAPE.
AM NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT A DUSTING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD EXPECT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF MOVING ONSHORE AND WITH MOISTURE AND THE LIFT
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL THE MOISTURE SATURATE ENOUGH TO -6C. IF NOT
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE SO A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE PER SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE BENCHMARK AND WELL OFFSHORE. BELIEVE A SOLUTION FATHER
OUT TO SEA IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. REGARDLESS A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE COASTAL AREAS HAVING THE BEST SHOT TO SEE PRECIP. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
DOMINATE OUT AHEAD OF STRONGER SYSTEM TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE 11.6 IN BOSTON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
WITH ANY EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
6 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A
POTENT STORM WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL BE LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS
MEXICO... PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN +1 TO +3
/OR HIGHER/...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIND ISSUES. GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS
SHOWING A 40 TO 50 KT JET AT 925 MB WHICH MAY WARRANT WIND
ADVISORIES BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER
JET IS POSSIBLE. LASTLY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE
ADDRESS AS HIGH TIDE ON WED AND THUS ARE 11.7 AND 11.5 RESPECTIVELY.
ANY ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL PUSH THE TIDE ABOVE FLOOD SO COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

4 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN W
MA. NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT EXPECTED.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 13Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANY SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS.  A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OUTER-WATERS...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR GALE WARNINGS.

TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME BUT STILL THINK WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.  STILL EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 20
KNOTS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WATERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 181419
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
917 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...RADAR COVERAGE INDICATED THAT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DECREASED IN COVERAGE...AS THE UPPER AIR LOW FINALLY BEGINS PULLING
AWAY. HOWEVER WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE
WEAK SHORT WAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH LATER TODAY.

NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST TWEAKING THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT DECREASE POPS...STILL KEEP
THEM IN MOST PLACES (OUTSIDE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY). ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.


THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA HAS BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL PROBABLY NOT DEEPEN ANY MORE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO FILL BY THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS AROUND KPSF.

A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KPSF...ALLOWING FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY TO BE IN
PLACE THERE THROUGH 14Z-15Z. ELSEWHERE...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER AROUND KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH MID MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT KALB...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
FLURRY.

FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE WILL PROMOTE W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...BUT STILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 181419
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
917 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...RADAR COVERAGE INDICATED THAT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DECREASED IN COVERAGE...AS THE UPPER AIR LOW FINALLY BEGINS PULLING
AWAY. HOWEVER WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE
WEAK SHORT WAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH LATER TODAY.

NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST TWEAKING THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT DECREASE POPS...STILL KEEP
THEM IN MOST PLACES (OUTSIDE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY). ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.


THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA HAS BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL PROBABLY NOT DEEPEN ANY MORE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO FILL BY THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS AROUND KPSF.

A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KPSF...ALLOWING FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY TO BE IN
PLACE THERE THROUGH 14Z-15Z. ELSEWHERE...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER AROUND KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH MID MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT KALB...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
FLURRY.

FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE WILL PROMOTE W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...BUT STILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 181419
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
917 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...RADAR COVERAGE INDICATED THAT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DECREASED IN COVERAGE...AS THE UPPER AIR LOW FINALLY BEGINS PULLING
AWAY. HOWEVER WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE
WEAK SHORT WAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH LATER TODAY.

NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST TWEAKING THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT DECREASE POPS...STILL KEEP
THEM IN MOST PLACES (OUTSIDE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY). ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.


THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA HAS BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL PROBABLY NOT DEEPEN ANY MORE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO FILL BY THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS AROUND KPSF.

A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KPSF...ALLOWING FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY TO BE IN
PLACE THERE THROUGH 14Z-15Z. ELSEWHERE...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER AROUND KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH MID MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT KALB...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
FLURRY.

FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE WILL PROMOTE W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...BUT STILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 181419
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
917 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...RADAR COVERAGE INDICATED THAT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DECREASED IN COVERAGE...AS THE UPPER AIR LOW FINALLY BEGINS PULLING
AWAY. HOWEVER WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE
WEAK SHORT WAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH LATER TODAY.

NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST TWEAKING THE HOURLY
GRIDS.

WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT DECREASE POPS...STILL KEEP
THEM IN MOST PLACES (OUTSIDE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY). ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.


THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA HAS BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL PROBABLY NOT DEEPEN ANY MORE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO FILL BY THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.

THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS AROUND KPSF.

A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KPSF...ALLOWING FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY TO BE IN
PLACE THERE THROUGH 14Z-15Z. ELSEWHERE...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER AROUND KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH MID MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT KALB...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
FLURRY.

FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE WILL PROMOTE W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...BUT STILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA









000
FXUS61 KBOX 181128
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
628 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY.
AN ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

630 AM UPDATE...

GOOD BAND HAS SET UP ALLOWING FOR LOCALIZED WET-BULB PROCESSES.
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR WORCESTER TO DROP TO 32F AND WITH REPORTS OF
SLICK TRAVEL IN TOLLAND CO CT HAVE ISSUES AN SPS FOR SLICK TRAVEL
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. ALSO JUST RECEIVED A REPORT OF SNOW
IN PROVIDENCE AS WELL. SINCE TEMPS ARE MARGINAL AM NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY FOR ACCUMULATION HOWEVER A QUICK
COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ASIDE FROM A FEW MINOR TWEAKS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
12Z...TRIGGERING HIT AND MISS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  THE BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...SO WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH FORCING
IS AVAILABLE FOR A FEW BRIEF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MA/CT AND
RI.

AS FOR PTYPE...COLD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND COASTAL
PLAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS INITIALLY. WET BULB PROCESSES MAY ALLOW FOR AN EVENTUAL
MIXTURE OR CHANGE TO FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS.  SPOTTY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOST OF THE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXIT EASTERN MA BY 8 OR 9 AM AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.  WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN A
BIT...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE EVEN IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THEREFORE...LOW TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO
QUEBEC.  WHILE WERE NOT TOO COLD AT 850 MB...THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR TOO OOZE SOUTH...KEEPING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  SHOULD SEE A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LESS WIND THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET TO RETURN
TO THE U.S. AS THE STRONG W PACIFIC JET TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE PAC NW. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER SE CANADA SHOULD ALSO
HELP DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK AND LIKELY CLOSE
OFF AS IT SWINGS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS ON THIS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

DURING THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. APPEARS THAT A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
LOW OVER THE BENCHMARK WHERE THE EC PUSHES WELL EASTWARD THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK SO
COASTAL REGIONS HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPART
APPEARS ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY
LOW CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS STILL A TAD FASTER COMPARED TO
THE EC BUT OVERALL EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT 6+ DAYS OUT.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE CAPE. SURFACE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE IS 14C
WHICH IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR THE CAPE.
AM NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT A DUSTING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD EXPECT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF MOVING ONSHORE AND WITH MOISTURE AND THE LIFT
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL THE MOISTURE SATURATE ENOUGH TO -6C. IF NOT
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE SO A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE PER SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE BENCHMARK AND WELL OFFSHORE. BELIEVE A SOLUTION FATHER
OUT TO SEA IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. REGARDLESS A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE COASTAL AREAS HAVING THE BEST SHOT TO SEE PRECIP. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
DOMINATE OUT AHEAD OF STRONGER SYSTEM TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE 11.6 IN BOSTON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
WITH ANY EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
6 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A
POTENT STORM WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL BE LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS
MEXICO... PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN +1 TO +3
/OR HIGHER/...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIND ISSUES. GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS
SHOWING A 40 TO 50 KT JET AT 925 MB WHICH MAY WARRANT WIND
ADVISORIES BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER
JET IS POSSIBLE. LASTLY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE
ADDRESS AS HIGH TIDE ON WED AND THUS ARE 11.7 AND 11.5 RESPECTIVELY.
ANY ONSHORE COMPONET WILL PUSH THE TIDE ABOVE FLOOD SO COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

4 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...BRIEF LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13-14Z IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN MA. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ALSO
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 13Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANY SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS.  A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OUTER-WATERS...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR GALE WARNINGS.

TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME BUT STILL THINK WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.  STILL EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 20
KNOTS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WATERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 181119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE
LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS AROUND KPSF.

A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KPSF...ALLOWING FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY TO BE IN
PLACE THERE THROUGH 14Z-15Z. ELSEWHERE...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER AROUND KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH MID MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT KALB...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
FLURRY.

FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE WILL PROMOTE W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...BUT STILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 181119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE
LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS AROUND KPSF.

A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KPSF...ALLOWING FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY TO BE IN
PLACE THERE THROUGH 14Z-15Z. ELSEWHERE...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER AROUND KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH MID MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT KALB...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
FLURRY.

FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE WILL PROMOTE W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...BUT STILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 181119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE
LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS AROUND KPSF.

A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KPSF...ALLOWING FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY TO BE IN
PLACE THERE THROUGH 14Z-15Z. ELSEWHERE...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER AROUND KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH MID MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT KALB...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
FLURRY.

FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE WILL PROMOTE W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...BUT STILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 181119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE
LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS AROUND KPSF.

A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KPSF...ALLOWING FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY TO BE IN
PLACE THERE THROUGH 14Z-15Z. ELSEWHERE...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER AROUND KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH MID MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT KALB...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
FLURRY.

FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE WILL PROMOTE W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...BUT STILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 181112
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE
LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA











000
FXUS61 KALY 181112
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE
LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA











000
FXUS61 KALY 181112
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE
LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA











000
FXUS61 KALY 181112
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE
LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA











000
FXUS61 KALY 181101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 181101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 181101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KBOX 180937
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
427 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY.
AN ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
12Z...TRIGGERING HIT AND MISS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  THE BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...SO WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH FORCING
IS AVAILABLE FOR A FEW BRIEF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MA/CT AND
RI.

AS FOR PTYPE...COLD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND COASTAL
PLAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS INITIALLY. WET BULB PROCESSES MAY ALLOW FOR AN EVENTUAL
MIXTURE OR CHANGE TO FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS.  SPOTTY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOST OF THE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXIT EASTERN MA BY 8 OR 9 AM AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.  WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN A
BIT...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE EVEN IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THEREFORE...LOW TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO
QUEBEC.  WHILE WERE NOT TOO COLD AT 850 MB...THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR TOO OOZE SOUTH...KEEPING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  SHOULD SEE A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LESS WIND THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET TO RETURN
TO THE U.S. AS THE STRONG W PACIFIC JET TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE PAC NW. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER SE CANADA SHOULD ALSO
HELP DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK AND LIKELY CLOSE
OFF AS IT SWINGS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS ON THIS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

DURING THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. APPEARS THAT A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
LOW OVER THE BENCHMARK WHERE THE EC PUSHES WELL EASTWARD THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK SO
COASTAL REGIONS HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPART
APPEARS ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY
LOW CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS STILL A TAD FASTER COMPARED TO
THE EC BUT OVERALL EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT 6+ DAYS OUT.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE CAPE. SURFACE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE IS 14C
WHICH IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR THE CAPE.
AM NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT A DUSTING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD EXPECT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF MOVING ONSHORE AND WITH MOISTURE AND THE LIFT
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL THE MOISTURE SATURATE ENOUGH TO -6C. IF NOT
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE SO A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE PER SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE BENCHMARK AND WELL OFFSHORE. BELIEVE A SOLUTION FATHER
OUT TO SEA IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. REGARDLESS A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE COASTAL AREAS HAVING THE BEST SHOT TO SEE PRECIP. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
DOMINATE OUT AHEAD OF STRONGER SYSTEM TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE 11.6 IN BOSTON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
WITH ANY EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
6 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A
POTENT STORM WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL BE LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS
MEXICO... PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN +1 TO +3
/OR HIGHER/...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIND ISSUES. GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS
SHOWING A 40 TO 50 KT JET AT 925 MB WHICH MAY WARRANT WIND
ADVISORIES BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER
JET IS POSSIBLE. LASTLY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE
ADDRESS AS HIGH TIDE ON WED AND THUS ARE 11.7 AND 11.5 RESPECTIVELY.
ANY ONSHORE COMPONET WILL PUSH THE TIDE ABOVE FLOOD SO COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

4 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...BRIEF LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN MA.  BRIEF MVFR CIGS ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANY SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS.  A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OUTER-WATERS...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR GALE WARNINGS.

TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME BUT STILL THINK WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.  STILL EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 20
KNOTS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WATERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 180937
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
427 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY.
AN ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
12Z...TRIGGERING HIT AND MISS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  THE BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...SO WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH FORCING
IS AVAILABLE FOR A FEW BRIEF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MA/CT AND
RI.

AS FOR PTYPE...COLD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND COASTAL
PLAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS INITIALLY. WET BULB PROCESSES MAY ALLOW FOR AN EVENTUAL
MIXTURE OR CHANGE TO FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS.  SPOTTY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOST OF THE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXIT EASTERN MA BY 8 OR 9 AM AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.  WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN A
BIT...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE EVEN IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THEREFORE...LOW TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO
QUEBEC.  WHILE WERE NOT TOO COLD AT 850 MB...THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR TOO OOZE SOUTH...KEEPING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  SHOULD SEE A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LESS WIND THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET TO RETURN
TO THE U.S. AS THE STRONG W PACIFIC JET TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE PAC NW. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER SE CANADA SHOULD ALSO
HELP DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK AND LIKELY CLOSE
OFF AS IT SWINGS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS ON THIS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

DURING THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. APPEARS THAT A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
LOW OVER THE BENCHMARK WHERE THE EC PUSHES WELL EASTWARD THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK SO
COASTAL REGIONS HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPART
APPEARS ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY
LOW CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS STILL A TAD FASTER COMPARED TO
THE EC BUT OVERALL EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT 6+ DAYS OUT.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE CAPE. SURFACE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE IS 14C
WHICH IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR THE CAPE.
AM NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT A DUSTING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD EXPECT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF MOVING ONSHORE AND WITH MOISTURE AND THE LIFT
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL THE MOISTURE SATURATE ENOUGH TO -6C. IF NOT
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE SO A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE PER SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE BENCHMARK AND WELL OFFSHORE. BELIEVE A SOLUTION FATHER
OUT TO SEA IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. REGARDLESS A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE COASTAL AREAS HAVING THE BEST SHOT TO SEE PRECIP. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
DOMINATE OUT AHEAD OF STRONGER SYSTEM TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE 11.6 IN BOSTON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
WITH ANY EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
6 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A
POTENT STORM WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL BE LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS
MEXICO... PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN +1 TO +3
/OR HIGHER/...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIND ISSUES. GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS
SHOWING A 40 TO 50 KT JET AT 925 MB WHICH MAY WARRANT WIND
ADVISORIES BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER
JET IS POSSIBLE. LASTLY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE
ADDRESS AS HIGH TIDE ON WED AND THUS ARE 11.7 AND 11.5 RESPECTIVELY.
ANY ONSHORE COMPONET WILL PUSH THE TIDE ABOVE FLOOD SO COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

4 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...BRIEF LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN MA.  BRIEF MVFR CIGS ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANY SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS.  A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OUTER-WATERS...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR GALE WARNINGS.

TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME BUT STILL THINK WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.  STILL EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 20
KNOTS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WATERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 180937
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
427 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY.
AN ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
12Z...TRIGGERING HIT AND MISS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  THE BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...SO WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH FORCING
IS AVAILABLE FOR A FEW BRIEF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MA/CT AND
RI.

AS FOR PTYPE...COLD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND COASTAL
PLAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS INITIALLY. WET BULB PROCESSES MAY ALLOW FOR AN EVENTUAL
MIXTURE OR CHANGE TO FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS.  SPOTTY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOST OF THE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXIT EASTERN MA BY 8 OR 9 AM AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.  WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN A
BIT...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE EVEN IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THEREFORE...LOW TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO
QUEBEC.  WHILE WERE NOT TOO COLD AT 850 MB...THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR TOO OOZE SOUTH...KEEPING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  SHOULD SEE A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LESS WIND THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET TO RETURN
TO THE U.S. AS THE STRONG W PACIFIC JET TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE PAC NW. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER SE CANADA SHOULD ALSO
HELP DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK AND LIKELY CLOSE
OFF AS IT SWINGS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS ON THIS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

DURING THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. APPEARS THAT A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
LOW OVER THE BENCHMARK WHERE THE EC PUSHES WELL EASTWARD THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK SO
COASTAL REGIONS HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPART
APPEARS ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY
LOW CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS STILL A TAD FASTER COMPARED TO
THE EC BUT OVERALL EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT 6+ DAYS OUT.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE CAPE. SURFACE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE IS 14C
WHICH IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR THE CAPE.
AM NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT A DUSTING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD EXPECT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF MOVING ONSHORE AND WITH MOISTURE AND THE LIFT
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL THE MOISTURE SATURATE ENOUGH TO -6C. IF NOT
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE SO A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE PER SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE BENCHMARK AND WELL OFFSHORE. BELIEVE A SOLUTION FATHER
OUT TO SEA IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. REGARDLESS A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE COASTAL AREAS HAVING THE BEST SHOT TO SEE PRECIP. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
DOMINATE OUT AHEAD OF STRONGER SYSTEM TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE 11.6 IN BOSTON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
WITH ANY EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
6 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A
POTENT STORM WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL BE LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS
MEXICO... PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN +1 TO +3
/OR HIGHER/...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIND ISSUES. GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS
SHOWING A 40 TO 50 KT JET AT 925 MB WHICH MAY WARRANT WIND
ADVISORIES BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER
JET IS POSSIBLE. LASTLY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE
ADDRESS AS HIGH TIDE ON WED AND THUS ARE 11.7 AND 11.5 RESPECTIVELY.
ANY ONSHORE COMPONET WILL PUSH THE TIDE ABOVE FLOOD SO COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

4 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...BRIEF LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN MA.  BRIEF MVFR CIGS ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANY SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS.  A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OUTER-WATERS...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR GALE WARNINGS.

TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME BUT STILL THINK WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.  STILL EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 20
KNOTS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WATERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 180937
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
427 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY.
AN ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
12Z...TRIGGERING HIT AND MISS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  THE BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...SO WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH FORCING
IS AVAILABLE FOR A FEW BRIEF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MA/CT AND
RI.

AS FOR PTYPE...COLD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND COASTAL
PLAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS INITIALLY. WET BULB PROCESSES MAY ALLOW FOR AN EVENTUAL
MIXTURE OR CHANGE TO FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS.  SPOTTY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOST OF THE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXIT EASTERN MA BY 8 OR 9 AM AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.  WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN A
BIT...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE EVEN IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THEREFORE...LOW TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO
QUEBEC.  WHILE WERE NOT TOO COLD AT 850 MB...THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR TOO OOZE SOUTH...KEEPING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  SHOULD SEE A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LESS WIND THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET TO RETURN
TO THE U.S. AS THE STRONG W PACIFIC JET TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE PAC NW. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER SE CANADA SHOULD ALSO
HELP DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK AND LIKELY CLOSE
OFF AS IT SWINGS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS ON THIS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

DURING THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. APPEARS THAT A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
LOW OVER THE BENCHMARK WHERE THE EC PUSHES WELL EASTWARD THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK SO
COASTAL REGIONS HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPART
APPEARS ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY
LOW CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS STILL A TAD FASTER COMPARED TO
THE EC BUT OVERALL EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT 6+ DAYS OUT.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE CAPE. SURFACE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE IS 14C
WHICH IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR THE CAPE.
AM NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT A DUSTING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD EXPECT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF MOVING ONSHORE AND WITH MOISTURE AND THE LIFT
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL THE MOISTURE SATURATE ENOUGH TO -6C. IF NOT
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE SO A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE PER SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE BENCHMARK AND WELL OFFSHORE. BELIEVE A SOLUTION FATHER
OUT TO SEA IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. REGARDLESS A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE COASTAL AREAS HAVING THE BEST SHOT TO SEE PRECIP. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
DOMINATE OUT AHEAD OF STRONGER SYSTEM TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE 11.6 IN BOSTON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
WITH ANY EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
6 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A
POTENT STORM WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL BE LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS
MEXICO... PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN +1 TO +3
/OR HIGHER/...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIND ISSUES. GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS
SHOWING A 40 TO 50 KT JET AT 925 MB WHICH MAY WARRANT WIND
ADVISORIES BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER
JET IS POSSIBLE. LASTLY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE
ADDRESS AS HIGH TIDE ON WED AND THUS ARE 11.7 AND 11.5 RESPECTIVELY.
ANY ONSHORE COMPONET WILL PUSH THE TIDE ABOVE FLOOD SO COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

4 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...BRIEF LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN MA.  BRIEF MVFR CIGS ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANY SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS.  A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OUTER-WATERS...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR GALE WARNINGS.

TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME BUT STILL THINK WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.  STILL EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 20
KNOTS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WATERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 180932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE
AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 180932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE
AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE`LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS
LOOKS TO FALL MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL
SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME MIXING TODAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBOX 180927
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
427 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY.
AN ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
12Z...TRIGGERING HIT AND MISS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  THE BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...SO WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH FORCING
IS AVAILABLE FOR A FEW BRIEF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MA/CT AND
RI.

AS FOR PTYPE...COLD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND COASTAL
PLAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS INITIALLY. WET BULB PROCESSES MAY ALLOW FOR AN EVENTUAL
MIXTURE OR CHANGE TO FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS.  SPOTTY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOST OF THE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXIT EASTERN MA BY 8 OR 9 AM AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.  WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN A
BIT...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE EVEN IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THEREFORE...LOW TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO
QUEBEC.  WHILE WERE NOT TOO COLD AT 850 MB...THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR TOO OOZE SOUTH...KEEPING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  SHOULD SEE A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LESS WIND THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET TO RETURN
TO THE U.S. AS THE STRONG W PACIFIC JET TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE PAC NW. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER SE CANADA SHOULD ALSO
HELP DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK AND LIKELY CLOSE
OFF AS IT SWINGS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS ON THIS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

DURING THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. APPEARS THAT A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
LOW OVER THE BENCHMARK WHERE THE EC PUSHES WELL EASTWARD THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK SO
COASTAL REGIONS HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPART
APPEARS ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY
LOW CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS STILL A TAD FASTER COMPARED TO
THE EC BUT OVERALL EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT 6+ DAYS OUT.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE CAPE. SURFACE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE IS 14C
WHICH IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR THE CAPE.
AM NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT A DUSTING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD EXPECT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF MOVING ONSHORE AND WITH MOISTURE AND THE LIFT
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL THE MOISTURE SATURATE ENOUGH TO -6C. IF NOT
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE SO A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE PER SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE BENCHMARK AND WELL OFFSHORE. BELIEVE A SOLUTION FATHER
OUT TO SEA IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. REGARDLESS A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE COASTAL AREAS HAVING THE BEST SHOT TO SEE PRECIP. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
DOMINATE OUT AHEAD OF STRONGER SYSTEM TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE 11.6 IN BOSTON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
WITH ANY EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
6 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A
POTENT STORM WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL BE LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS
MEXICO... PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN +1 TO +3
/OR HIGHER/...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIND ISSUES. GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS
SHOWING A 40 TO 50 KT JET AT 925 MB WHICH MAY WARRANT WIND
ADVISORIES BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER
JET IS POSSIBLE. LASTLY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE
ADDRESS AS HIGH TIDE ON WED AND THUS ARE 11.7 AND 11.5 RESPECTIVELY.
ANY ONSHORE COMPONET WILL PUSH THE TIDE ABOVE FLOOD SO COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

4 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...BRIEF LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN MA.  BRIEF MVFR CIGS ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANY SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS.  A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OUTER-WATERS...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR GALE WARNINGS.

TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME BUT STILL THINK WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.  STILL EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 20
KNOTS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WATERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 180927
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
427 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY.
AN ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
12Z...TRIGGERING HIT AND MISS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  THE BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...SO WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH FORCING
IS AVAILABLE FOR A FEW BRIEF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MA/CT AND
RI.

AS FOR PTYPE...COLD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND COASTAL
PLAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS INITIALLY. WET BULB PROCESSES MAY ALLOW FOR AN EVENTUAL
MIXTURE OR CHANGE TO FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS.  SPOTTY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOST OF THE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXIT EASTERN MA BY 8 OR 9 AM AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.  WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN A
BIT...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE EVEN IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THEREFORE...LOW TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO
QUEBEC.  WHILE WERE NOT TOO COLD AT 850 MB...THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR TOO OOZE SOUTH...KEEPING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  SHOULD SEE A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LESS WIND THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET TO RETURN
TO THE U.S. AS THE STRONG W PACIFIC JET TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE PAC NW. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER SE CANADA SHOULD ALSO
HELP DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK AND LIKELY CLOSE
OFF AS IT SWINGS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS ON THIS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

DURING THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. APPEARS THAT A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
LOW OVER THE BENCHMARK WHERE THE EC PUSHES WELL EASTWARD THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK SO
COASTAL REGIONS HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPART
APPEARS ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY
LOW CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS STILL A TAD FASTER COMPARED TO
THE EC BUT OVERALL EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT 6+ DAYS OUT.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE CAPE. SURFACE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE IS 14C
WHICH IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR THE CAPE.
AM NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT A DUSTING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD EXPECT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF MOVING ONSHORE AND WITH MOISTURE AND THE LIFT
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL THE MOISTURE SATURATE ENOUGH TO -6C. IF NOT
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE SO A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE PER SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE BENCHMARK AND WELL OFFSHORE. BELIEVE A SOLUTION FATHER
OUT TO SEA IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. REGARDLESS A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE COASTAL AREAS HAVING THE BEST SHOT TO SEE PRECIP. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
DOMINATE OUT AHEAD OF STRONGER SYSTEM TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE 11.6 IN BOSTON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
WITH ANY EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
6 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A
POTENT STORM WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL BE LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS
MEXICO... PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN +1 TO +3
/OR HIGHER/...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIND ISSUES. GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS
SHOWING A 40 TO 50 KT JET AT 925 MB WHICH MAY WARRANT WIND
ADVISORIES BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER
JET IS POSSIBLE. LASTLY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE
ADDRESS AS HIGH TIDE ON WED AND THUS ARE 11.7 AND 11.5 RESPECTIVELY.
ANY ONSHORE COMPONET WILL PUSH THE TIDE ABOVE FLOOD SO COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

4 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...BRIEF LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN MA.  BRIEF MVFR CIGS ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANY SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS.  A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OUTER-WATERS...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR GALE WARNINGS.

TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME BUT STILL THINK WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.  STILL EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 20
KNOTS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WATERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 180927
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
427 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY.
AN ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
12Z...TRIGGERING HIT AND MISS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  THE BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...SO WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH FORCING
IS AVAILABLE FOR A FEW BRIEF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MA/CT AND
RI.

AS FOR PTYPE...COLD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND COASTAL
PLAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS INITIALLY. WET BULB PROCESSES MAY ALLOW FOR AN EVENTUAL
MIXTURE OR CHANGE TO FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS.  SPOTTY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOST OF THE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXIT EASTERN MA BY 8 OR 9 AM AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.  WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN A
BIT...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE EVEN IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THEREFORE...LOW TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO
QUEBEC.  WHILE WERE NOT TOO COLD AT 850 MB...THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR TOO OOZE SOUTH...KEEPING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  SHOULD SEE A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LESS WIND THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET TO RETURN
TO THE U.S. AS THE STRONG W PACIFIC JET TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE PAC NW. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER SE CANADA SHOULD ALSO
HELP DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK AND LIKELY CLOSE
OFF AS IT SWINGS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS ON THIS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

DURING THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. APPEARS THAT A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
LOW OVER THE BENCHMARK WHERE THE EC PUSHES WELL EASTWARD THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK SO
COASTAL REGIONS HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPART
APPEARS ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY
LOW CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS STILL A TAD FASTER COMPARED TO
THE EC BUT OVERALL EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT 6+ DAYS OUT.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE CAPE. SURFACE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE IS 14C
WHICH IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR THE CAPE.
AM NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT A DUSTING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD EXPECT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF MOVING ONSHORE AND WITH MOISTURE AND THE LIFT
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL THE MOISTURE SATURATE ENOUGH TO -6C. IF NOT
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE SO A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE PER SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE BENCHMARK AND WELL OFFSHORE. BELIEVE A SOLUTION FATHER
OUT TO SEA IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. REGARDLESS A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE COASTAL AREAS HAVING THE BEST SHOT TO SEE PRECIP. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
DOMINATE OUT AHEAD OF STRONGER SYSTEM TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE 11.6 IN BOSTON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
WITH ANY EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
6 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A
POTENT STORM WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL BE LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS
MEXICO... PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN +1 TO +3
/OR HIGHER/...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIND ISSUES. GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS
SHOWING A 40 TO 50 KT JET AT 925 MB WHICH MAY WARRANT WIND
ADVISORIES BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER
JET IS POSSIBLE. LASTLY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE
ADDRESS AS HIGH TIDE ON WED AND THUS ARE 11.7 AND 11.5 RESPECTIVELY.
ANY ONSHORE COMPONET WILL PUSH THE TIDE ABOVE FLOOD SO COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

4 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...BRIEF LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN MA.  BRIEF MVFR CIGS ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANY SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS.  A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OUTER-WATERS...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR GALE WARNINGS.

TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME BUT STILL THINK WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.  STILL EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 20
KNOTS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WATERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 180927
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
427 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY.
AN ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
12Z...TRIGGERING HIT AND MISS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  THE BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...SO WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH FORCING
IS AVAILABLE FOR A FEW BRIEF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MA/CT AND
RI.

AS FOR PTYPE...COLD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND COASTAL
PLAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS INITIALLY. WET BULB PROCESSES MAY ALLOW FOR AN EVENTUAL
MIXTURE OR CHANGE TO FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS.  SPOTTY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOST OF THE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXIT EASTERN MA BY 8 OR 9 AM AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.  WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN A
BIT...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE EVEN IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THEREFORE...LOW TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO
QUEBEC.  WHILE WERE NOT TOO COLD AT 850 MB...THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR TOO OOZE SOUTH...KEEPING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  SHOULD SEE A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH LESS WIND THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY
* ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING HEAVY
  RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL CONCERNS AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH ISSUES ON
TIMING AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET TO RETURN
TO THE U.S. AS THE STRONG W PACIFIC JET TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE PAC NW. BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER SE CANADA SHOULD ALSO
HELP DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK AND LIKELY CLOSE
OFF AS IT SWINGS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS ON THIS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE MOST RECENT GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD CORRELATION TO NEXT THURSDAY.

DURING THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. APPEARS THAT A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THIS
LOW OVER THE BENCHMARK WHERE THE EC PUSHES WELL EASTWARD THANKS TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK SO
COASTAL REGIONS HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPART
APPEARS ANOMALOUS LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP A SECONDARY
LOW CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS STILL A TAD FASTER COMPARED TO
THE EC BUT OVERALL EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT 6+ DAYS OUT.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER IT APPEARS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE CAPE. SURFACE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE IS 14C
WHICH IS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY FOR THE CAPE.
AM NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT A DUSTING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD EXPECT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF MOVING ONSHORE AND WITH MOISTURE AND THE LIFT
COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL THE MOISTURE SATURATE ENOUGH TO -6C. IF NOT
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE SO A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE PER SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE BENCHMARK AND WELL OFFSHORE. BELIEVE A SOLUTION FATHER
OUT TO SEA IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA. REGARDLESS A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE COASTAL AREAS HAVING THE BEST SHOT TO SEE PRECIP. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
DOMINATE OUT AHEAD OF STRONGER SYSTEM TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE 11.6 IN BOSTON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
WITH ANY EASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SYSTEM LOW CONFIDENCE
ON DETAILS.

STRONG ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...DEVELOPING A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
6 DAYS AWAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A
POTENT STORM WILL OCCUR. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST PRECIP
WILL BE LIQUID WITH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION BACK ACROSS
MEXICO... PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN +1 TO +3
/OR HIGHER/...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. IN FACT WE MAY BE
CLOSE AT BREAKING RECORD HIGH TEMPS IF TEMPS WARM TO 60F OR ABOVE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.  AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO CANADA...COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CIRCULATE AROUND AND BEGIN A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN TURNING P-TYPE TO SNOW.

THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIND ISSUES. GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS
SHOWING A 40 TO 50 KT JET AT 925 MB WHICH MAY WARRANT WIND
ADVISORIES BUT THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE SO A STRONGER
JET IS POSSIBLE. LASTLY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE
ADDRESS AS HIGH TIDE ON WED AND THUS ARE 11.7 AND 11.5 RESPECTIVELY.
ANY ONSHORE COMPONET WILL PUSH THE TIDE ABOVE FLOOD SO COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS BEACH EROSION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

4 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...BRIEF LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN MA.  BRIEF MVFR CIGS ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS ANY SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS.  A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OUTER-WATERS...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR GALE WARNINGS.

TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS.  WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME BUT STILL THINK WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO WEAKEN.  STILL EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 20
KNOTS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WATERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 180601
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WELL WEST OF
NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO BRING RAIN AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER COVERED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING.  SHORTWAVE ACROSS NY STATE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT RESIDES.  HOWEVER...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT CT/RI/SE MA.

AS FOR PTYPE...MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND COASTAL PLAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS INITIALLY.  MAY SEE THESE AREAS
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS TEMPS
COOL A BIT.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH MORE
THAN THAT.

EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...TO MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EXPECT TO SEE FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THU MORNING ACROSS NE MA
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THU AND THU
NIGHT.

GUSTY W/NW WINDS /30-35 MPH/ ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT
CLOUDINESS A BIT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TOTAL CLEARING AS UPPER
TROUGH STILL HANGS BACK FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GREAT LAKES...EVEN
THROUGH THU NIGHT.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS
FROM UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE THU...AND LOWS MAINLY IN 20S THU
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND SAT
* LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS S OF NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL
  STILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
* STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL WEST OF THE REGION LOOKS TO
  BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS BY CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE WAS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...
THOUGH TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES DID COME INTO PLAY FOR WEAK LOW
PRES PASSING WELL S OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON...THEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED
WITH A LONG WAVE NEG TILT TROUGH WHICH WILL WRAP IN MOISTURE BY
AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN IN A SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA EARLY IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MODELS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN EVOLVES INTO AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH/RIDGE SET UP...WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 12Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH CONTINUE TO EVOLVE CUTOFF H5 LOW
PRES...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED ACROSS THE SE U.S. WHILE BOTH MODELS DID SIGNAL THIS
EVOLUTION...TIMING IS IN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES AND A SLUG OF HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MIXED PRECIP TO
START WELL INLAND AROUND TUESDAY THAT WILL CHANGE TO RAIN WITH
GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING MILDER AIR BY CHRISTMAS EVE
DAY.

ONE THING TO NOTE ON THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...CONSIDERING WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT A SYSTEM ABOUT A WEEK AWAY...THE 12Z GFS/EC OP RUNS
WERE RATHER CLOSE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES FOR THE LATE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME OF THE LOW AND SHORT WAVE WRAPPING AROUND IT WHICH LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION...WHICH LENDS TO SOMEWHAT LOWERED CONFIDENCE.
DO FEEL THERE IS A GOOD SHOT FOR PRECIP...IT IS A MATTER OF THE
ONSET AND ENDING OF THIS PRECIP. SO...LEANED TOWARD THE WPC
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS BLEND OF THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS/EC OP RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND BUBBLE CUTOFF HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT ACROSS
QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT E AS WELL...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.

DURING MID TO LATE SATURDAY...AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PASSES OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
BRING LIGHT PRECIP TOWARD THE COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND...WITH
MARGINAL TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BEST SHOT
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOP.

LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLC COAST LATE SAT NIGHT...SO
APPEARS SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL WORK N INTO CT/S RI
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...SO COULD SEE SOME SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THERE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THIS WAS A TOUGH PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS PATTERN BEGINS TO
UNDERGO CHANGE TO THE WEST. A RATHER FLAT SHORT WAVE WORKS OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION. THIS SYSTEM OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM DOES NOT LOOK TO PHASE UP WITH ANYTHING IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF SCT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AS THIS
SOUTHERN LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WHILE THE HIGH TO THE N SLOWLY
MOVES E AS THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S.

WITH THE ONSHORE WINDS...EXPECT ANY MIXED RAIN/SNOW TO CHANGE TO
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI/PORTIONS OF N CT...WHILE SCT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE INLAND. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...SO NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
INLAND TERRAIN. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S WELL
INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR TIMING.
ANOTHER LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP EASTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES FOR THE AXIS OF
THIS MOISTURE AND HOW FAR N IT WILL SHIFT FROM THE SECOND PASSING
LOW. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT
MILDER WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHEST INLAND
TERRAIN TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE S COAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. H5 CUTOFF LOW FORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST
/THOUGH PLACEMENT ISSUES IN PLAY/...WHILE SURFACE LOW PRES FORMS
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED BY 12Z WED...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN
AS IT ROTATES ACROSS WESTERN PA/CENTRAL VA. A SLUG OF QPF...TAPPED
FROM THE TROPICS...WILL SHIFT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING WED.
NOTED PWATS ON ORDER OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT +2 SD
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER. WILL ALSO SEE
E-SE WINDS INCREASE WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING UP THE COAST
/H85 WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 60-70 KT AS JET CROSSES DURING
WED/.

HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP MOVING IN DURING WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THIS...BUT BIG
QUESTION WILL BE THE ONSET AND ENDING OF THIS SLUG OF PRECIP.
ALSO...SINCE TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY TO START WELL INLAND...WILL SEE
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP THERE TO START BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...THOUGH STILL
QUESTIONS ON EXACT TIMING. TEMPS WILL RISE WITH THE INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW... LIKELY TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...BRIEF LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MA TURNPIKE.  BRIEF MVFR CIGS ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...THEN
DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COAST MAINLY SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. PATCHY
MVFR TO LOCAL IFR VSBYS IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THU...AND FOR OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES
WILL RESULT IN STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS WATERS...SOLIDLY 25-30KT
GUSTS WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME 35KT GUSTS ON OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER
WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. PEAK GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU NIGHT BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO DIMINISH.

MAY SEE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON E MA WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE ANN AND MERRIMACK RIVER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE
MONDAY.

FRIDAY...NW WIND GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. SEAS START OFF AROUND 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS EARLY FRI...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BY FRI
EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WIND SHIFT TO E-NE DURING SUN AND SEAS BUILD UP TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...EVT/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 180601
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WELL WEST OF
NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO BRING RAIN AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER COVERED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING.  SHORTWAVE ACROSS NY STATE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT RESIDES.  HOWEVER...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT CT/RI/SE MA.

AS FOR PTYPE...MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND COASTAL PLAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS INITIALLY.  MAY SEE THESE AREAS
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS TEMPS
COOL A BIT.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH MORE
THAN THAT.

EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...TO MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EXPECT TO SEE FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THU MORNING ACROSS NE MA
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THU AND THU
NIGHT.

GUSTY W/NW WINDS /30-35 MPH/ ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT
CLOUDINESS A BIT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TOTAL CLEARING AS UPPER
TROUGH STILL HANGS BACK FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GREAT LAKES...EVEN
THROUGH THU NIGHT.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS
FROM UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE THU...AND LOWS MAINLY IN 20S THU
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND SAT
* LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS S OF NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL
  STILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
* STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL WEST OF THE REGION LOOKS TO
  BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS BY CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE WAS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...
THOUGH TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES DID COME INTO PLAY FOR WEAK LOW
PRES PASSING WELL S OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON...THEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED
WITH A LONG WAVE NEG TILT TROUGH WHICH WILL WRAP IN MOISTURE BY
AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN IN A SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA EARLY IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MODELS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN EVOLVES INTO AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH/RIDGE SET UP...WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 12Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH CONTINUE TO EVOLVE CUTOFF H5 LOW
PRES...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED ACROSS THE SE U.S. WHILE BOTH MODELS DID SIGNAL THIS
EVOLUTION...TIMING IS IN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES AND A SLUG OF HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MIXED PRECIP TO
START WELL INLAND AROUND TUESDAY THAT WILL CHANGE TO RAIN WITH
GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING MILDER AIR BY CHRISTMAS EVE
DAY.

ONE THING TO NOTE ON THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...CONSIDERING WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT A SYSTEM ABOUT A WEEK AWAY...THE 12Z GFS/EC OP RUNS
WERE RATHER CLOSE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES FOR THE LATE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME OF THE LOW AND SHORT WAVE WRAPPING AROUND IT WHICH LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION...WHICH LENDS TO SOMEWHAT LOWERED CONFIDENCE.
DO FEEL THERE IS A GOOD SHOT FOR PRECIP...IT IS A MATTER OF THE
ONSET AND ENDING OF THIS PRECIP. SO...LEANED TOWARD THE WPC
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS BLEND OF THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS/EC OP RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND BUBBLE CUTOFF HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT ACROSS
QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT E AS WELL...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.

DURING MID TO LATE SATURDAY...AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PASSES OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
BRING LIGHT PRECIP TOWARD THE COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND...WITH
MARGINAL TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BEST SHOT
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOP.

LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLC COAST LATE SAT NIGHT...SO
APPEARS SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL WORK N INTO CT/S RI
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...SO COULD SEE SOME SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THERE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THIS WAS A TOUGH PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS PATTERN BEGINS TO
UNDERGO CHANGE TO THE WEST. A RATHER FLAT SHORT WAVE WORKS OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION. THIS SYSTEM OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM DOES NOT LOOK TO PHASE UP WITH ANYTHING IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF SCT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AS THIS
SOUTHERN LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WHILE THE HIGH TO THE N SLOWLY
MOVES E AS THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S.

WITH THE ONSHORE WINDS...EXPECT ANY MIXED RAIN/SNOW TO CHANGE TO
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI/PORTIONS OF N CT...WHILE SCT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE INLAND. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...SO NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
INLAND TERRAIN. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S WELL
INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR TIMING.
ANOTHER LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP EASTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES FOR THE AXIS OF
THIS MOISTURE AND HOW FAR N IT WILL SHIFT FROM THE SECOND PASSING
LOW. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT
MILDER WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHEST INLAND
TERRAIN TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE S COAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. H5 CUTOFF LOW FORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST
/THOUGH PLACEMENT ISSUES IN PLAY/...WHILE SURFACE LOW PRES FORMS
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED BY 12Z WED...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN
AS IT ROTATES ACROSS WESTERN PA/CENTRAL VA. A SLUG OF QPF...TAPPED
FROM THE TROPICS...WILL SHIFT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING WED.
NOTED PWATS ON ORDER OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT +2 SD
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER. WILL ALSO SEE
E-SE WINDS INCREASE WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING UP THE COAST
/H85 WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 60-70 KT AS JET CROSSES DURING
WED/.

HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP MOVING IN DURING WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THIS...BUT BIG
QUESTION WILL BE THE ONSET AND ENDING OF THIS SLUG OF PRECIP.
ALSO...SINCE TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY TO START WELL INLAND...WILL SEE
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP THERE TO START BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...THOUGH STILL
QUESTIONS ON EXACT TIMING. TEMPS WILL RISE WITH THE INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW... LIKELY TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...BRIEF LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MA TURNPIKE.  BRIEF MVFR CIGS ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...THEN
DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COAST MAINLY SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. PATCHY
MVFR TO LOCAL IFR VSBYS IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THU...AND FOR OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES
WILL RESULT IN STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS WATERS...SOLIDLY 25-30KT
GUSTS WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME 35KT GUSTS ON OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER
WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. PEAK GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU NIGHT BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO DIMINISH.

MAY SEE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON E MA WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE ANN AND MERRIMACK RIVER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE
MONDAY.

FRIDAY...NW WIND GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. SEAS START OFF AROUND 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS EARLY FRI...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BY FRI
EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WIND SHIFT TO E-NE DURING SUN AND SEAS BUILD UP TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...EVT/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 180601
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WELL WEST OF
NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO BRING RAIN AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER COVERED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING.  SHORTWAVE ACROSS NY STATE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT RESIDES.  HOWEVER...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT CT/RI/SE MA.

AS FOR PTYPE...MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND COASTAL PLAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS INITIALLY.  MAY SEE THESE AREAS
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS TEMPS
COOL A BIT.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH MORE
THAN THAT.

EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...TO MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EXPECT TO SEE FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THU MORNING ACROSS NE MA
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THU AND THU
NIGHT.

GUSTY W/NW WINDS /30-35 MPH/ ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT
CLOUDINESS A BIT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TOTAL CLEARING AS UPPER
TROUGH STILL HANGS BACK FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GREAT LAKES...EVEN
THROUGH THU NIGHT.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS
FROM UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE THU...AND LOWS MAINLY IN 20S THU
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND SAT
* LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS S OF NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL
  STILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
* STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL WEST OF THE REGION LOOKS TO
  BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS BY CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE WAS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...
THOUGH TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES DID COME INTO PLAY FOR WEAK LOW
PRES PASSING WELL S OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON...THEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED
WITH A LONG WAVE NEG TILT TROUGH WHICH WILL WRAP IN MOISTURE BY
AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN IN A SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA EARLY IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MODELS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN EVOLVES INTO AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH/RIDGE SET UP...WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 12Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH CONTINUE TO EVOLVE CUTOFF H5 LOW
PRES...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED ACROSS THE SE U.S. WHILE BOTH MODELS DID SIGNAL THIS
EVOLUTION...TIMING IS IN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES AND A SLUG OF HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MIXED PRECIP TO
START WELL INLAND AROUND TUESDAY THAT WILL CHANGE TO RAIN WITH
GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING MILDER AIR BY CHRISTMAS EVE
DAY.

ONE THING TO NOTE ON THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...CONSIDERING WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT A SYSTEM ABOUT A WEEK AWAY...THE 12Z GFS/EC OP RUNS
WERE RATHER CLOSE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES FOR THE LATE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME OF THE LOW AND SHORT WAVE WRAPPING AROUND IT WHICH LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION...WHICH LENDS TO SOMEWHAT LOWERED CONFIDENCE.
DO FEEL THERE IS A GOOD SHOT FOR PRECIP...IT IS A MATTER OF THE
ONSET AND ENDING OF THIS PRECIP. SO...LEANED TOWARD THE WPC
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS BLEND OF THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS/EC OP RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND BUBBLE CUTOFF HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT ACROSS
QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT E AS WELL...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.

DURING MID TO LATE SATURDAY...AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PASSES OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
BRING LIGHT PRECIP TOWARD THE COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND...WITH
MARGINAL TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BEST SHOT
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOP.

LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLC COAST LATE SAT NIGHT...SO
APPEARS SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL WORK N INTO CT/S RI
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...SO COULD SEE SOME SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THERE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THIS WAS A TOUGH PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS PATTERN BEGINS TO
UNDERGO CHANGE TO THE WEST. A RATHER FLAT SHORT WAVE WORKS OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION. THIS SYSTEM OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM DOES NOT LOOK TO PHASE UP WITH ANYTHING IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF SCT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AS THIS
SOUTHERN LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WHILE THE HIGH TO THE N SLOWLY
MOVES E AS THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S.

WITH THE ONSHORE WINDS...EXPECT ANY MIXED RAIN/SNOW TO CHANGE TO
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI/PORTIONS OF N CT...WHILE SCT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE INLAND. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...SO NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
INLAND TERRAIN. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S WELL
INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR TIMING.
ANOTHER LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP EASTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES FOR THE AXIS OF
THIS MOISTURE AND HOW FAR N IT WILL SHIFT FROM THE SECOND PASSING
LOW. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT
MILDER WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHEST INLAND
TERRAIN TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE S COAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. H5 CUTOFF LOW FORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST
/THOUGH PLACEMENT ISSUES IN PLAY/...WHILE SURFACE LOW PRES FORMS
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED BY 12Z WED...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN
AS IT ROTATES ACROSS WESTERN PA/CENTRAL VA. A SLUG OF QPF...TAPPED
FROM THE TROPICS...WILL SHIFT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING WED.
NOTED PWATS ON ORDER OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT +2 SD
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER. WILL ALSO SEE
E-SE WINDS INCREASE WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING UP THE COAST
/H85 WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 60-70 KT AS JET CROSSES DURING
WED/.

HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP MOVING IN DURING WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THIS...BUT BIG
QUESTION WILL BE THE ONSET AND ENDING OF THIS SLUG OF PRECIP.
ALSO...SINCE TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY TO START WELL INLAND...WILL SEE
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP THERE TO START BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...THOUGH STILL
QUESTIONS ON EXACT TIMING. TEMPS WILL RISE WITH THE INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW... LIKELY TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...BRIEF LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MA TURNPIKE.  BRIEF MVFR CIGS ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...THEN
DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COAST MAINLY SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. PATCHY
MVFR TO LOCAL IFR VSBYS IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THU...AND FOR OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES
WILL RESULT IN STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS WATERS...SOLIDLY 25-30KT
GUSTS WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME 35KT GUSTS ON OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER
WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. PEAK GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU NIGHT BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO DIMINISH.

MAY SEE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON E MA WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE ANN AND MERRIMACK RIVER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE
MONDAY.

FRIDAY...NW WIND GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. SEAS START OFF AROUND 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS EARLY FRI...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BY FRI
EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WIND SHIFT TO E-NE DURING SUN AND SEAS BUILD UP TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...EVT/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 180601
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WELL WEST OF
NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO BRING RAIN AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER COVERED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING.  SHORTWAVE ACROSS NY STATE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT RESIDES.  HOWEVER...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT CT/RI/SE MA.

AS FOR PTYPE...MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND COASTAL PLAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS INITIALLY.  MAY SEE THESE AREAS
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS TEMPS
COOL A BIT.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH MORE
THAN THAT.

EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...TO MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EXPECT TO SEE FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THU MORNING ACROSS NE MA
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THU AND THU
NIGHT.

GUSTY W/NW WINDS /30-35 MPH/ ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT
CLOUDINESS A BIT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TOTAL CLEARING AS UPPER
TROUGH STILL HANGS BACK FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GREAT LAKES...EVEN
THROUGH THU NIGHT.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS
FROM UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE THU...AND LOWS MAINLY IN 20S THU
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND SAT
* LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS S OF NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL
  STILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
* STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL WEST OF THE REGION LOOKS TO
  BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS BY CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE WAS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...
THOUGH TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES DID COME INTO PLAY FOR WEAK LOW
PRES PASSING WELL S OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON...THEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED
WITH A LONG WAVE NEG TILT TROUGH WHICH WILL WRAP IN MOISTURE BY
AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN IN A SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA EARLY IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MODELS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN EVOLVES INTO AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH/RIDGE SET UP...WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 12Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH CONTINUE TO EVOLVE CUTOFF H5 LOW
PRES...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED ACROSS THE SE U.S. WHILE BOTH MODELS DID SIGNAL THIS
EVOLUTION...TIMING IS IN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES AND A SLUG OF HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MIXED PRECIP TO
START WELL INLAND AROUND TUESDAY THAT WILL CHANGE TO RAIN WITH
GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING MILDER AIR BY CHRISTMAS EVE
DAY.

ONE THING TO NOTE ON THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...CONSIDERING WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT A SYSTEM ABOUT A WEEK AWAY...THE 12Z GFS/EC OP RUNS
WERE RATHER CLOSE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES FOR THE LATE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME OF THE LOW AND SHORT WAVE WRAPPING AROUND IT WHICH LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION...WHICH LENDS TO SOMEWHAT LOWERED CONFIDENCE.
DO FEEL THERE IS A GOOD SHOT FOR PRECIP...IT IS A MATTER OF THE
ONSET AND ENDING OF THIS PRECIP. SO...LEANED TOWARD THE WPC
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS BLEND OF THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS/EC OP RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND BUBBLE CUTOFF HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT ACROSS
QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT E AS WELL...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.

DURING MID TO LATE SATURDAY...AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PASSES OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
BRING LIGHT PRECIP TOWARD THE COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND...WITH
MARGINAL TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BEST SHOT
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOP.

LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLC COAST LATE SAT NIGHT...SO
APPEARS SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL WORK N INTO CT/S RI
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...SO COULD SEE SOME SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THERE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THIS WAS A TOUGH PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS PATTERN BEGINS TO
UNDERGO CHANGE TO THE WEST. A RATHER FLAT SHORT WAVE WORKS OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION. THIS SYSTEM OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM DOES NOT LOOK TO PHASE UP WITH ANYTHING IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF SCT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AS THIS
SOUTHERN LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WHILE THE HIGH TO THE N SLOWLY
MOVES E AS THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S.

WITH THE ONSHORE WINDS...EXPECT ANY MIXED RAIN/SNOW TO CHANGE TO
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI/PORTIONS OF N CT...WHILE SCT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE INLAND. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...SO NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
INLAND TERRAIN. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S WELL
INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR TIMING.
ANOTHER LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP EASTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES FOR THE AXIS OF
THIS MOISTURE AND HOW FAR N IT WILL SHIFT FROM THE SECOND PASSING
LOW. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT
MILDER WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHEST INLAND
TERRAIN TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE S COAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. H5 CUTOFF LOW FORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST
/THOUGH PLACEMENT ISSUES IN PLAY/...WHILE SURFACE LOW PRES FORMS
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED BY 12Z WED...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN
AS IT ROTATES ACROSS WESTERN PA/CENTRAL VA. A SLUG OF QPF...TAPPED
FROM THE TROPICS...WILL SHIFT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING WED.
NOTED PWATS ON ORDER OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT +2 SD
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER. WILL ALSO SEE
E-SE WINDS INCREASE WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING UP THE COAST
/H85 WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 60-70 KT AS JET CROSSES DURING
WED/.

HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP MOVING IN DURING WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THIS...BUT BIG
QUESTION WILL BE THE ONSET AND ENDING OF THIS SLUG OF PRECIP.
ALSO...SINCE TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY TO START WELL INLAND...WILL SEE
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP THERE TO START BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...THOUGH STILL
QUESTIONS ON EXACT TIMING. TEMPS WILL RISE WITH THE INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW... LIKELY TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...BRIEF LOCALIZED
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MA TURNPIKE.  BRIEF MVFR CIGS ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...THEN
DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COAST MAINLY SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. PATCHY
MVFR TO LOCAL IFR VSBYS IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THU...AND FOR OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES
WILL RESULT IN STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS WATERS...SOLIDLY 25-30KT
GUSTS WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME 35KT GUSTS ON OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER
WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. PEAK GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU NIGHT BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO DIMINISH.

MAY SEE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON E MA WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE ANN AND MERRIMACK RIVER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE
MONDAY.

FRIDAY...NW WIND GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. SEAS START OFF AROUND 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS EARLY FRI...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BY FRI
EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WIND SHIFT TO E-NE DURING SUN AND SEAS BUILD UP TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...EVT/JWD



000
FXUS61 KALY 180559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR ECHOES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HEADS TOWARD DELMARVA. POPS WERE INCREASED AND EXPANDED WITH
PREVIOUS UPDATE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN MADE. HAVE LIGHT MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN HERE AT THE
OFFICE WITH 37 DEGREES.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS AND BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD. SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30
MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORABLE CHANNELED WEST/EAST
VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE
BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS LOOKS TO FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN INITIALLY AS
THE SFC TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AT FIRST. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH
KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES DURING THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME
MIXING ON THURSDAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 180559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR ECHOES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH HEADS TOWARD DELMARVA. POPS WERE INCREASED AND EXPANDED WITH
PREVIOUS UPDATE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN MADE. HAVE LIGHT MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN HERE AT THE
OFFICE WITH 37 DEGREES.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST DEEPENS AND BECOME VERTICALLY
STACKED AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD. SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30
MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORABLE CHANNELED WEST/EAST
VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE
BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY OVER UPSTATE NY. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...THIS LOOKS TO FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN INITIALLY AS
THE SFC TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AT FIRST. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE KPSF/KALB...ALTHOUGH
KGFL/KPOU MAY STILL SEE A SNOW SHOWER AROUND AS WELL.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO
LOW END MVFR OR IFR...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN SNOW WILL BE PUT UNTIL 10Z.

TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES DURING THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND....WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT. DURING DAYTIME
MIXING ON THURSDAY...W-NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL







000
FXUS61 KBOX 180300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WELL WEST OF
NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO BRING RAIN AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

A FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING.  MAINLY JUST A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN MILD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS...BUT A FEW WET SNOW
FLAKES PROBABLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MAIN SHORTWAVE SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z THU.  THE
BEST MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...SO WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH OF MA TURNPIKE.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A FEW RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI/SOUTHERN MA.

AS FOR PTYPE...MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND COASTAL PLAIN...BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS INITIALLY.  MAY SEE THESE AREAS
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS TEMPS
COOL A BIT.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH MORE
THAN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT TO SEE FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THU MORNING ACROSS NE MA
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THU AND THU
NIGHT.

GUSTY W/NW WINDS /30-35 MPH/ ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT
CLOUDINESS A BIT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TOTAL CLEARING AS UPPER
TROUGH STILL HANGS BACK FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GREAT LAKES...EVEN
THROUGH THU NIGHT.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS
FROM UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE THU...AND LOWS MAINLY IN 20S THU
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND SAT
* LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS S OF NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL
  STILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
* STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL WEST OF THE REGION LOOKS TO
  BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS BY CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE WAS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...
THOUGH TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES DID COME INTO PLAY FOR WEAK LOW
PRES PASSING WELL S OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON...THEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED
WITH A LONG WAVE NEG TILT TROUGH WHICH WILL WRAP IN MOISTURE BY
AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN IN A SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA EARLY IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MODELS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN EVOLVES INTO AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH/RIDGE SET UP...WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 12Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH CONTINUE TO EVOLVE CUTOFF H5 LOW
PRES...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED ACROSS THE SE U.S. WHILE BOTH MODELS DID SIGNAL THIS
EVOLUTION...TIMING IS IN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES AND A SLUG OF HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MIXED PRECIP TO
START WELL INLAND AROUND TUESDAY THAT WILL CHANGE TO RAIN WITH
GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING MILDER AIR BY CHRISTMAS EVE
DAY.

ONE THING TO NOTE ON THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...CONSIDERING WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT A SYSTEM ABOUT A WEEK AWAY...THE 12Z GFS/EC OP RUNS
WERE RATHER CLOSE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES FOR THE LATE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME OF THE LOW AND SHORT WAVE WRAPPING AROUND IT WHICH LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION...WHICH LENDS TO SOMEWHAT LOWERED CONFIDENCE.
DO FEEL THERE IS A GOOD SHOT FOR PRECIP...IT IS A MATTER OF THE
ONSET AND ENDING OF THIS PRECIP. SO...LEANED TOWARD THE WPC
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS BLEND OF THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS/EC OP RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND BUBBLE CUTOFF HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT ACROSS
QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT E AS WELL...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.

DURING MID TO LATE SATURDAY...AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PASSES OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
BRING LIGHT PRECIP TOWARD THE COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND...WITH
MARGINAL TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BEST SHOT
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOP.

LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLC COAST LATE SAT NIGHT...SO
APPEARS SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL WORK N INTO CT/S RI
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...SO COULD SEE SOME SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THERE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THIS WAS A TOUGH PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS PATTERN BEGINS TO
UNDERGO CHANGE TO THE WEST. A RATHER FLAT SHORT WAVE WORKS OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION. THIS SYSTEM OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM DOES NOT LOOK TO PHASE UP WITH ANYTHING IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF SCT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AS THIS
SOUTHERN LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WHILE THE HIGH TO THE N SLOWLY
MOVES E AS THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S.

WITH THE ONSHORE WINDS...EXPECT ANY MIXED RAIN/SNOW TO CHANGE TO
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI/PORTIONS OF N CT...WHILE SCT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE INLAND. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...SO NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
INLAND TERRAIN. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S WELL
INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR TIMING.
ANOTHER LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP EASTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES FOR THE AXIS OF
THIS MOISTURE AND HOW FAR N IT WILL SHIFT FROM THE SECOND PASSING
LOW. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT
MILDER WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHEST INLAND
TERRAIN TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE S COAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. H5 CUTOFF LOW FORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST
/THOUGH PLACEMENT ISSUES IN PLAY/...WHILE SURFACE LOW PRES FORMS
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED BY 12Z WED...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN
AS IT ROTATES ACROSS WESTERN PA/CENTRAL VA. A SLUG OF QPF...TAPPED
FROM THE TROPICS...WILL SHIFT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING WED.
NOTED PWATS ON ORDER OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT +2 SD
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER. WILL ALSO SEE
E-SE WINDS INCREASE WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING UP THE COAST
/H85 WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 60-70 KT AS JET CROSSES DURING
WED/.

HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP MOVING IN DURING WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THIS...BUT BIG
QUESTION WILL BE THE ONSET AND ENDING OF THIS SLUG OF PRECIP.
ALSO...SINCE TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY TO START WELL INLAND...WILL SEE
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP THERE TO START BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...THOUGH STILL
QUESTIONS ON EXACT TIMING. TEMPS WILL RISE WITH THE INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW... LIKELY TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.  PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS DOMINATE AFTER LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS DURING
MORNING...PERHAPS SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA. NW
WINDS GUST AS HIGH AS 25-30 KT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS EARLY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 8Z AND
12Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...THEN
DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COAST MAINLY SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. PATCHY
MVFR TO LOCAL IFR VSBYS IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THU...AND FOR OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES
WILL RESULT IN STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS WATERS...SOLIDLY 25-30KT
GUSTS WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME 35KT GUSTS ON OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER
WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. PEAK GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU NIGHT BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO DIMINISH.

MAY SEE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON E MA WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE ANN AND MERRIMACK RIVER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE
MONDAY.

FRIDAY...NW WIND GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. SEAS START OFF AROUND 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS EARLY FRI...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BY FRI
EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WIND SHIFT TO E-NE DURING SUN AND SEAS BUILD UP TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KALY 180229
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 915 PM EST...AS THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES...RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASING
ON THE KBUF RADAR...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE KBGM RADAR.
EXPECT THIS PCPN TO MAKE IT INTO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT...SO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF INCREASING THE POPS LATER
TONIGHT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. IN FACT...ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...HAVE INCREASED POPS EVEN MORE AND RAISED THEM ABOUT 5 TO 15
PERCENT ABOVE WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST ONE
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8
C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROF HAS PASSED THROUGH...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB SITES...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU. AT KPSF...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT KGFL/KALB/KPOU TO HAVE A BKN/OVC
VFR CLOUD DECK...WHILE KPSF IS MAINLY MVFR DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. ON THURSDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS.
LATE IN THE DAY THE SPEED WILL DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL













000
FXUS61 KALY 180229
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 915 PM EST...AS THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES...RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASING
ON THE KBUF RADAR...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE KBGM RADAR.
EXPECT THIS PCPN TO MAKE IT INTO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT...SO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF INCREASING THE POPS LATER
TONIGHT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. IN FACT...ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...HAVE INCREASED POPS EVEN MORE AND RAISED THEM ABOUT 5 TO 15
PERCENT ABOVE WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST ONE
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8
C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROF HAS PASSED THROUGH...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB SITES...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU. AT KPSF...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT KGFL/KALB/KPOU TO HAVE A BKN/OVC
VFR CLOUD DECK...WHILE KPSF IS MAINLY MVFR DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. ON THURSDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS.
LATE IN THE DAY THE SPEED WILL DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL













000
FXUS61 KALY 180229
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 915 PM EST...AS THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES...RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASING
ON THE KBUF RADAR...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE KBGM RADAR.
EXPECT THIS PCPN TO MAKE IT INTO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT...SO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF INCREASING THE POPS LATER
TONIGHT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. IN FACT...ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...HAVE INCREASED POPS EVEN MORE AND RAISED THEM ABOUT 5 TO 15
PERCENT ABOVE WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST ONE
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8
C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROF HAS PASSED THROUGH...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB SITES...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU. AT KPSF...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT KGFL/KALB/KPOU TO HAVE A BKN/OVC
VFR CLOUD DECK...WHILE KPSF IS MAINLY MVFR DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. ON THURSDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS.
LATE IN THE DAY THE SPEED WILL DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL













000
FXUS61 KALY 180229
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 915 PM EST...AS THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES RAPIDLY EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES...RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASING
ON THE KBUF RADAR...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE KBGM RADAR.
EXPECT THIS PCPN TO MAKE IT INTO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT...SO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF INCREASING THE POPS LATER
TONIGHT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. IN FACT...ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...HAVE INCREASED POPS EVEN MORE AND RAISED THEM ABOUT 5 TO 15
PERCENT ABOVE WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST ONE
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8
C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROF HAS PASSED THROUGH...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB SITES...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU. AT KPSF...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT KGFL/KALB/KPOU TO HAVE A BKN/OVC
VFR CLOUD DECK...WHILE KPSF IS MAINLY MVFR DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. ON THURSDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS.
LATE IN THE DAY THE SPEED WILL DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL













000
FXUS61 KBOX 180029
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
729 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WELL WEST OF
NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO BRING RAIN AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
705 PM UPDATE...
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE CT VALLEY INTO
THE HUDSON VALLEY AT 00Z AS SEEN ON LATEST KBOX 88D RADAR
IMAGERY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE REACHED ACROSS S COASTAL CT AND RI
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT HAVE TENDED TO DISSIPATE IN
DRIER AIR THERE. NOTING A FEW MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
THE NW FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND S NH THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS INTO
N MA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL.

TEMPS WERE RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST SO UPDATED THOSE.
ALSO UPDATED REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS
CURRENT. PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 04Z-05Z LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FOCUSED NORTH OF MASS PIKE...BUT COULD SEE A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS INTO PARTS OF N CT...RI AND SE MA AS WELL. NOT LOOKING
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR ANY SNOW SQUALLS PER BTV 4KM WRF AND OTHER
HIGH-RES MODELS. DESPITE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...LACKING GOOD INSTABILITY AND LAPSE
RATES. SO OUR THINKING IS WE WILL SEE DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT MOST...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO 30S...WITH FREEZING LINE PROBABLY
STAYING JUST W OF I-495 CORRIDOR IN E MA BY DAYBREAK THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT TO SEE FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THU MORNING ACROSS NE MA
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THU AND THU
NIGHT.

GUSTY W/NW WINDS /30-35 MPH/ ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT
CLOUDINESS A BIT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TOTAL CLEARING AS UPPER
TROUGH STILL HANGS BACK FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GREAT LAKES...EVEN
THROUGH THU NIGHT.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS
FROM UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE THU...AND LOWS MAINLY IN 20S THU
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND SAT
* LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS S OF NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL
  STILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
* STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL WEST OF THE REGION LOOKS TO
  BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS BY CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE WAS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...
THOUGH TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES DID COME INTO PLAY FOR WEAK LOW
PRES PASSING WELL S OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON...THEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED
WITH A LONG WAVE NEG TILT TROUGH WHICH WILL WRAP IN MOISTURE BY
AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN IN A SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA EARLY IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MODELS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN EVOLVES INTO AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH/RIDGE SET UP...WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 12Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH CONTINUE TO EVOLVE CUTOFF H5 LOW
PRES...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED ACROSS THE SE U.S. WHILE BOTH MODELS DID SIGNAL THIS
EVOLUTION...TIMING IS IN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES AND A SLUG OF HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MIXED PRECIP TO
START WELL INLAND AROUND TUESDAY THAT WILL CHANGE TO RAIN WITH
GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING MILDER AIR BY CHRISTMAS EVE
DAY.

ONE THING TO NOTE ON THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...CONSIDERING WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT A SYSTEM ABOUT A WEEK AWAY...THE 12Z GFS/EC OP RUNS
WERE RATHER CLOSE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES FOR THE LATE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME OF THE LOW AND SHORT WAVE WRAPPING AROUND IT WHICH LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION...WHICH LENDS TO SOMEWHAT LOWERED CONFIDENCE.
DO FEEL THERE IS A GOOD SHOT FOR PRECIP...IT IS A MATTER OF THE
ONSET AND ENDING OF THIS PRECIP. SO...LEANED TOWARD THE WPC
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS BLEND OF THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS/EC OP RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND BUBBLE CUTOFF HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT ACROSS
QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT E AS WELL...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.

DURING MID TO LATE SATURDAY...AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PASSES OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
BRING LIGHT PRECIP TOWARD THE COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND...WITH
MARGINAL TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BEST SHOT
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOP.

LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLC COAST LATE SAT NIGHT...SO
APPEARS SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL WORK N INTO CT/S RI
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...SO COULD SEE SOME SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THERE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THIS WAS A TOUGH PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS PATTERN BEGINS TO
UNDERGO CHANGE TO THE WEST. A RATHER FLAT SHORT WAVE WORKS OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION. THIS SYSTEM OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM DOES NOT LOOK TO PHASE UP WITH ANYTHING IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF SCT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AS THIS
SOUTHERN LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WHILE THE HIGH TO THE N SLOWLY
MOVES E AS THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S.

WITH THE ONSHORE WINDS...EXPECT ANY MIXED RAIN/SNOW TO CHANGE TO
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI/PORTIONS OF N CT...WHILE SCT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE INLAND. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...SO NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
INLAND TERRAIN. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S WELL
INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR TIMING.
ANOTHER LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP EASTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES FOR THE AXIS OF
THIS MOISTURE AND HOW FAR N IT WILL SHIFT FROM THE SECOND PASSING
LOW. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT
MILDER WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHEST INLAND
TERRAIN TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE S COAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. H5 CUTOFF LOW FORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST
/THOUGH PLACEMENT ISSUES IN PLAY/...WHILE SURFACE LOW PRES FORMS
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED BY 12Z WED...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN
AS IT ROTATES ACROSS WESTERN PA/CENTRAL VA. A SLUG OF QPF...TAPPED
FROM THE TROPICS...WILL SHIFT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING WED.
NOTED PWATS ON ORDER OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT +2 SD
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER. WILL ALSO SEE
E-SE WINDS INCREASE WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING UP THE COAST
/H85 WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 60-70 KT AS JET CROSSES DURING
WED/.

HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP MOVING IN DURING WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THIS...BUT BIG
QUESTION WILL BE THE ONSET AND ENDING OF THIS SLUG OF PRECIP.
ALSO...SINCE TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY TO START WELL INLAND...WILL SEE
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP THERE TO START BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...THOUGH STILL
QUESTIONS ON EXACT TIMING. TEMPS WILL RISE WITH THE INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW... LIKELY TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY EXCEPT
MVFR CIGS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. WILL SEE LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SCT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH 05Z-07Z.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS DOMINATE AFTER LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS DURING
MORNING...PERHAPS SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA. NW
WINDS GUST AS HIGH AS 25-30 KT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS EARLY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW-END MVFR CIGS THROUGH
EVENING PUSH. COULD SEE CIGS IMPROVE TO OVC025 AS BEST CASE...BUT
NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...THEN
DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COAST MAINLY SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. PATCHY
MVFR TO LOCAL IFR VSBYS IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THU...AND FOR OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES
WILL RESULT IN STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS WATERS...SOLIDLY 25-30KT
GUSTS WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME 35KT GUSTS ON OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER
WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. PEAK GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU NIGHT BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO DIMINISH.

MAY SEE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON E MA WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE ANN AND MERRIMACK RIVER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE
MONDAY.

FRIDAY...NW WIND GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. SEAS START OFF AROUND 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS EARLY FRI...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BY FRI
EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WIND SHIFT TO E-NE DURING SUN AND SEAS BUILD UP TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 180029
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
729 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WELL WEST OF
NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO BRING RAIN AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
705 PM UPDATE...
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE CT VALLEY INTO
THE HUDSON VALLEY AT 00Z AS SEEN ON LATEST KBOX 88D RADAR
IMAGERY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE REACHED ACROSS S COASTAL CT AND RI
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT HAVE TENDED TO DISSIPATE IN
DRIER AIR THERE. NOTING A FEW MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
THE NW FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND S NH THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS INTO
N MA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL.

TEMPS WERE RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST SO UPDATED THOSE.
ALSO UPDATED REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS
CURRENT. PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 04Z-05Z LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FOCUSED NORTH OF MASS PIKE...BUT COULD SEE A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS INTO PARTS OF N CT...RI AND SE MA AS WELL. NOT LOOKING
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR ANY SNOW SQUALLS PER BTV 4KM WRF AND OTHER
HIGH-RES MODELS. DESPITE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...LACKING GOOD INSTABILITY AND LAPSE
RATES. SO OUR THINKING IS WE WILL SEE DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT MOST...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO 30S...WITH FREEZING LINE PROBABLY
STAYING JUST W OF I-495 CORRIDOR IN E MA BY DAYBREAK THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT TO SEE FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THU MORNING ACROSS NE MA
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THU AND THU
NIGHT.

GUSTY W/NW WINDS /30-35 MPH/ ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT
CLOUDINESS A BIT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TOTAL CLEARING AS UPPER
TROUGH STILL HANGS BACK FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GREAT LAKES...EVEN
THROUGH THU NIGHT.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS
FROM UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE THU...AND LOWS MAINLY IN 20S THU
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND SAT
* LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS S OF NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL
  STILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
* STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL WEST OF THE REGION LOOKS TO
  BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS BY CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE WAS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...
THOUGH TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES DID COME INTO PLAY FOR WEAK LOW
PRES PASSING WELL S OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON...THEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED
WITH A LONG WAVE NEG TILT TROUGH WHICH WILL WRAP IN MOISTURE BY
AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN IN A SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA EARLY IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MODELS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN EVOLVES INTO AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH/RIDGE SET UP...WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 12Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH CONTINUE TO EVOLVE CUTOFF H5 LOW
PRES...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED ACROSS THE SE U.S. WHILE BOTH MODELS DID SIGNAL THIS
EVOLUTION...TIMING IS IN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES AND A SLUG OF HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MIXED PRECIP TO
START WELL INLAND AROUND TUESDAY THAT WILL CHANGE TO RAIN WITH
GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING MILDER AIR BY CHRISTMAS EVE
DAY.

ONE THING TO NOTE ON THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...CONSIDERING WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT A SYSTEM ABOUT A WEEK AWAY...THE 12Z GFS/EC OP RUNS
WERE RATHER CLOSE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES FOR THE LATE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME OF THE LOW AND SHORT WAVE WRAPPING AROUND IT WHICH LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION...WHICH LENDS TO SOMEWHAT LOWERED CONFIDENCE.
DO FEEL THERE IS A GOOD SHOT FOR PRECIP...IT IS A MATTER OF THE
ONSET AND ENDING OF THIS PRECIP. SO...LEANED TOWARD THE WPC
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS BLEND OF THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS/EC OP RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND BUBBLE CUTOFF HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT ACROSS
QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT E AS WELL...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.

DURING MID TO LATE SATURDAY...AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PASSES OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
BRING LIGHT PRECIP TOWARD THE COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND...WITH
MARGINAL TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BEST SHOT
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOP.

LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLC COAST LATE SAT NIGHT...SO
APPEARS SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL WORK N INTO CT/S RI
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...SO COULD SEE SOME SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THERE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THIS WAS A TOUGH PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS PATTERN BEGINS TO
UNDERGO CHANGE TO THE WEST. A RATHER FLAT SHORT WAVE WORKS OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION. THIS SYSTEM OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM DOES NOT LOOK TO PHASE UP WITH ANYTHING IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF SCT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AS THIS
SOUTHERN LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WHILE THE HIGH TO THE N SLOWLY
MOVES E AS THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S.

WITH THE ONSHORE WINDS...EXPECT ANY MIXED RAIN/SNOW TO CHANGE TO
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI/PORTIONS OF N CT...WHILE SCT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE INLAND. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...SO NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
INLAND TERRAIN. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S WELL
INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR TIMING.
ANOTHER LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP EASTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES FOR THE AXIS OF
THIS MOISTURE AND HOW FAR N IT WILL SHIFT FROM THE SECOND PASSING
LOW. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT
MILDER WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHEST INLAND
TERRAIN TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE S COAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. H5 CUTOFF LOW FORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST
/THOUGH PLACEMENT ISSUES IN PLAY/...WHILE SURFACE LOW PRES FORMS
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED BY 12Z WED...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN
AS IT ROTATES ACROSS WESTERN PA/CENTRAL VA. A SLUG OF QPF...TAPPED
FROM THE TROPICS...WILL SHIFT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING WED.
NOTED PWATS ON ORDER OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT +2 SD
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER. WILL ALSO SEE
E-SE WINDS INCREASE WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING UP THE COAST
/H85 WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 60-70 KT AS JET CROSSES DURING
WED/.

HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP MOVING IN DURING WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THIS...BUT BIG
QUESTION WILL BE THE ONSET AND ENDING OF THIS SLUG OF PRECIP.
ALSO...SINCE TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY TO START WELL INLAND...WILL SEE
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP THERE TO START BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...THOUGH STILL
QUESTIONS ON EXACT TIMING. TEMPS WILL RISE WITH THE INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW... LIKELY TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY EXCEPT
MVFR CIGS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. WILL SEE LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SCT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH 05Z-07Z.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS DOMINATE AFTER LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS DURING
MORNING...PERHAPS SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA. NW
WINDS GUST AS HIGH AS 25-30 KT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS EARLY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW-END MVFR CIGS THROUGH
EVENING PUSH. COULD SEE CIGS IMPROVE TO OVC025 AS BEST CASE...BUT
NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...THEN
DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COAST MAINLY SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. PATCHY
MVFR TO LOCAL IFR VSBYS IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THU...AND FOR OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES
WILL RESULT IN STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS WATERS...SOLIDLY 25-30KT
GUSTS WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME 35KT GUSTS ON OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER
WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. PEAK GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU NIGHT BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO DIMINISH.

MAY SEE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON E MA WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE ANN AND MERRIMACK RIVER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE
MONDAY.

FRIDAY...NW WIND GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. SEAS START OFF AROUND 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS EARLY FRI...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BY FRI
EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WIND SHIFT TO E-NE DURING SUN AND SEAS BUILD UP TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD



000
FXUS61 KALY 180012
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
712 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HAVE BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE PAST
HOUR...SO DECIDED TO KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME HOURLY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ALSO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST ONE
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8
C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROF HAS PASSED THROUGH...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB SITES...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU. AT KPSF...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT KGFL/KALB/KPOU TO HAVE A BKN/OVC
VFR CLOUD DECK...WHILE KPSF IS MAINLY MVFR DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. ON THURSDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS.
LATE IN THE DAY THE SPEED WILL DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL











000
FXUS61 KALY 180012
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
712 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HAVE BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE PAST
HOUR...SO DECIDED TO KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME HOURLY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ALSO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST ONE
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8
C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROF HAS PASSED THROUGH...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB SITES...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU. AT KPSF...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT KGFL/KALB/KPOU TO HAVE A BKN/OVC
VFR CLOUD DECK...WHILE KPSF IS MAINLY MVFR DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. ON THURSDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS.
LATE IN THE DAY THE SPEED WILL DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL











000
FXUS61 KALY 180012
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
712 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HAVE BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE PAST
HOUR...SO DECIDED TO KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME HOURLY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ALSO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST ONE
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8
C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROF HAS PASSED THROUGH...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB SITES...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU. AT KPSF...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT KGFL/KALB/KPOU TO HAVE A BKN/OVC
VFR CLOUD DECK...WHILE KPSF IS MAINLY MVFR DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. ON THURSDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS.
LATE IN THE DAY THE SPEED WILL DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL











000
FXUS61 KALY 180012
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
712 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EST...RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HAVE BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE PAST
HOUR...SO DECIDED TO KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME HOURLY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ALSO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST ONE
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND
BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8
C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW
GRAINS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT THE
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. ON THURSDAY...AFTER THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROF HAS PASSED THROUGH...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB SITES...
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU. AT KPSF...UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT KGFL/KALB/KPOU TO HAVE A BKN/OVC
VFR CLOUD DECK...WHILE KPSF IS MAINLY MVFR DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. ON THURSDAY THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS.
LATE IN THE DAY THE SPEED WILL DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL











000
FXUS61 KBOX 172232
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
532 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WELL WEST OF
NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO BRING RAIN AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
225 PM UPDATE...

SEEING A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THESE TO FILL BACK IN AS WE APPROACH
SUNSET DUE TO LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER REGION.

STILL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING PER
HIGH-RES MODELS...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP EARLY
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED NORTH OF MASS PIKE...BUT COULD SEE A
FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO PARTS OF N CT...RI AND SE MA AS
WELL. NOT LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR ANY SNOW SQUALLS PER BTV
4KM WRF AND OTHER HIGH-RES MODELS. DESPITE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE
AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...LACKING GOOD
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES. SO OUR THINKING IS WE WILL SEE
DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT
MOST...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO 30S...WITH FREEZING LINE PROBABLY
STAYING JUST W OF I-495 CORRIDOR IN E MA BY DAYBREAK THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT TO SEE FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THU MORNING ACROSS NE MA
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THU AND THU
NIGHT.

GUSTY W/NW WINDS /30-35 MPH/ ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT
CLOUDINESS A BIT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TOTAL CLEARING AS UPPER
TROUGH STILL HANGS BACK FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GREAT LAKES...EVEN
THROUGH THU NIGHT.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS
FROM UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE THU...AND LOWS MAINLY IN 20S THU
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND SAT
* LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS S OF NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL
  STILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
* STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL WEST OF THE REGION LOOKS TO
  BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS BY CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE WAS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...
THOUGH TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES DID COME INTO PLAY FOR WEAK LOW
PRES PASSING WELL S OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON...THEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED
WITH A LONG WAVE NEG TILT TROUGH WHICH WILL WRAP IN MOISTURE BY
AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN IN A SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA EARLY IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MODELS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN EVOLVES INTO AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH/RIDGE SET UP...WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 12Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH CONTINUE TO EVOLVE CUTOFF H5 LOW
PRES...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED ACROSS THE SE U.S. WHILE BOTH MODELS DID SIGNAL THIS
EVOLUTION...TIMING IS IN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES AND A SLUG OF HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MIXED PRECIP TO
START WELL INLAND AROUND TUESDAY THAT WILL CHANGE TO RAIN WITH
GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING MILDER AIR BY CHRISTMAS EVE
DAY.

ONE THING TO NOTE ON THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...CONSIDERING WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT A SYSTEM ABOUT A WEEK AWAY...THE 12Z GFS/EC OP RUNS
WERE RATHER CLOSE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES FOR THE LATE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME OF THE LOW AND SHORT WAVE WRAPPING AROUND IT WHICH LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION...WHICH LENDS TO SOMEWHAT LOWERED CONFIDENCE.
DO FEEL THERE IS A GOOD SHOT FOR PRECIP...IT IS A MATTER OF THE
ONSET AND ENDING OF THIS PRECIP. SO...LEANED TOWARD THE WPC
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS BLEND OF THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS/EC OP RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND BUBBLE CUTOFF HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT ACROSS
QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT E AS WELL...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.

DURING MID TO LATE SATURDAY...AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PASSES OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
BRING LIGHT PRECIP TOWARD THE COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND...WITH
MARGINAL TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BEST SHOT
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOP.

LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLC COAST LATE SAT NIGHT...SO
APPEARS SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL WORK N INTO CT/S RI
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...SO COULD SEE SOME SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THERE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THIS WAS A TOUGH PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS PATTERN BEGINS TO
UNDERGO CHANGE TO THE WEST. A RATHER FLAT SHORT WAVE WORKS OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION. THIS SYSTEM OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM DOES NOT LOOK TO PHASE UP WITH ANYTHING IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF SCT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AS THIS
SOUTHERN LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WHILE THE HIGH TO THE N SLOWLY
MOVES E AS THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S.

WITH THE ONSHORE WINDS...EXPECT ANY MIXED RAIN/SNOW TO CHANGE TO
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI/PORTIONS OF N CT...WHILE SCT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE INLAND. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...SO NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
INLAND TERRAIN. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S WELL
INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR TIMING.
ANOTHER LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP EASTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES FOR THE AXIS OF
THIS MOISTURE AND HOW FAR N IT WILL SHIFT FROM THE SECOND PASSING
LOW. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT
MILDER WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHEST INLAND
TERRAIN TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE S COAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. H5 CUTOFF LOW FORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST
/THOUGH PLACEMENT ISSUES IN PLAY/...WHILE SURFACE LOW PRES FORMS
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED BY 12Z WED...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN
AS IT ROTATES ACROSS WESTERN PA/CENTRAL VA. A SLUG OF QPF...TAPPED
FROM THE TROPICS...WILL SHIFT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING WED.
NOTED PWATS ON ORDER OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT +2 SD
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER. WILL ALSO SEE
E-SE WINDS INCREASE WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING UP THE COAST
/H85 WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 60-70 KT AS JET CROSSES DURING
WED/.

HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP MOVING IN DURING WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THIS...BUT BIG
QUESTION WILL BE THE ONSET AND ENDING OF THIS SLUG OF PRECIP.
ALSO...SINCE TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY TO START WELL INLAND...WILL SEE
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP THERE TO START BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...THOUGH STILL
QUESTIONS ON EXACT TIMING. TEMPS WILL RISE WITH THE INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW... LIKELY TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIGS LIFT TO VFR
ACROSS MOST OF AREA TONIGHT WITH INCREASING W/NW WINDS...GUSTING
TO 25KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MA WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CIGS DOMINATE THU AFTER LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS DURING MORNING...
PERHAPS SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA. NW WINDS GUST AS
HIGH AS 25-30KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW-END MVFR CIGS THROUGH
EVENING PUSH. COULD SEE CIGS IMPROVE TO OVC025 AS BEST CASE...BUT
NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...THEN
DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COAST MAINLY SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. PATCHY
MVFR TO LOCAL IFR VSBYS IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THU...AND FOR OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES
WILL RESULT IN STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS WATERS...SOLIDLY 25-30KT
GUSTS WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME 35KT GUSTS ON OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER
WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. PEAK GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU NIGHT BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO DIMINISH.

MAY SEE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON E MA WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE ANN AND MERRIMACK RIVER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE
MONDAY.

FRIDAY...NW WIND GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. SEAS START OFF AROUND 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS EARLY FRI...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BY FRI
EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WIND SHIFT TO E-NE DURING SUN AND SEAS BUILD UP TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 172232
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
532 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WELL WEST OF
NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO BRING RAIN AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
225 PM UPDATE...

SEEING A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THESE TO FILL BACK IN AS WE APPROACH
SUNSET DUE TO LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER REGION.

STILL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING PER
HIGH-RES MODELS...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP EARLY
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED NORTH OF MASS PIKE...BUT COULD SEE A
FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO PARTS OF N CT...RI AND SE MA AS
WELL. NOT LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR ANY SNOW SQUALLS PER BTV
4KM WRF AND OTHER HIGH-RES MODELS. DESPITE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE
AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...LACKING GOOD
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES. SO OUR THINKING IS WE WILL SEE
DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT
MOST...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO 30S...WITH FREEZING LINE PROBABLY
STAYING JUST W OF I-495 CORRIDOR IN E MA BY DAYBREAK THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT TO SEE FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THU MORNING ACROSS NE MA
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THU AND THU
NIGHT.

GUSTY W/NW WINDS /30-35 MPH/ ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT
CLOUDINESS A BIT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TOTAL CLEARING AS UPPER
TROUGH STILL HANGS BACK FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GREAT LAKES...EVEN
THROUGH THU NIGHT.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS
FROM UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE THU...AND LOWS MAINLY IN 20S THU
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND SAT
* LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS S OF NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL
  STILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
* STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL WEST OF THE REGION LOOKS TO
  BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS BY CHRISTMAS EVE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE WAS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...
THOUGH TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES DID COME INTO PLAY FOR WEAK LOW
PRES PASSING WELL S OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON...THEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED
WITH A LONG WAVE NEG TILT TROUGH WHICH WILL WRAP IN MOISTURE BY
AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN IN A SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA EARLY IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MODELS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN EVOLVES INTO AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH/RIDGE SET UP...WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 12Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH CONTINUE TO EVOLVE CUTOFF H5 LOW
PRES...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED ACROSS THE SE U.S. WHILE BOTH MODELS DID SIGNAL THIS
EVOLUTION...TIMING IS IN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES AND A SLUG OF HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MIXED PRECIP TO
START WELL INLAND AROUND TUESDAY THAT WILL CHANGE TO RAIN WITH
GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING MILDER AIR BY CHRISTMAS EVE
DAY.

ONE THING TO NOTE ON THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...CONSIDERING WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT A SYSTEM ABOUT A WEEK AWAY...THE 12Z GFS/EC OP RUNS
WERE RATHER CLOSE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES FOR THE LATE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME OF THE LOW AND SHORT WAVE WRAPPING AROUND IT WHICH LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION...WHICH LENDS TO SOMEWHAT LOWERED CONFIDENCE.
DO FEEL THERE IS A GOOD SHOT FOR PRECIP...IT IS A MATTER OF THE
ONSET AND ENDING OF THIS PRECIP. SO...LEANED TOWARD THE WPC
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS BLEND OF THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS/EC OP RUNS.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND BUBBLE CUTOFF HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT ACROSS
QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT E AS WELL...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.

DURING MID TO LATE SATURDAY...AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PASSES OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
BRING LIGHT PRECIP TOWARD THE COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND...WITH
MARGINAL TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BEST SHOT
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOP.

LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLC COAST LATE SAT NIGHT...SO
APPEARS SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL WORK N INTO CT/S RI
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...SO COULD SEE SOME SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THERE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THIS WAS A TOUGH PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS PATTERN BEGINS TO
UNDERGO CHANGE TO THE WEST. A RATHER FLAT SHORT WAVE WORKS OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION. THIS SYSTEM OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM DOES NOT LOOK TO PHASE UP WITH ANYTHING IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF SCT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AS THIS
SOUTHERN LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WHILE THE HIGH TO THE N SLOWLY
MOVES E AS THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S.

WITH THE ONSHORE WINDS...EXPECT ANY MIXED RAIN/SNOW TO CHANGE TO
RAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI/PORTIONS OF N CT...WHILE SCT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE INLAND. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...SO NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
INLAND TERRAIN. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S WELL
INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR TIMING.
ANOTHER LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PASS WELL S OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP EASTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING SOME PLACEMENT ISSUES FOR THE AXIS OF
THIS MOISTURE AND HOW FAR N IT WILL SHIFT FROM THE SECOND PASSING
LOW. WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT
MILDER WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHEST INLAND
TERRAIN TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE S COAST.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. H5 CUTOFF LOW FORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST
/THOUGH PLACEMENT ISSUES IN PLAY/...WHILE SURFACE LOW PRES FORMS
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED BY 12Z WED...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN
AS IT ROTATES ACROSS WESTERN PA/CENTRAL VA. A SLUG OF QPF...TAPPED
FROM THE TROPICS...WILL SHIFT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING WED.
NOTED PWATS ON ORDER OF 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT +2 SD
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER. WILL ALSO SEE
E-SE WINDS INCREASE WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WORKING UP THE COAST
/H85 WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 60-70 KT AS JET CROSSES DURING
WED/.

HAVE PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP MOVING IN DURING WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THIS...BUT BIG
QUESTION WILL BE THE ONSET AND ENDING OF THIS SLUG OF PRECIP.
ALSO...SINCE TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY TO START WELL INLAND...WILL SEE
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP THERE TO START BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...THOUGH STILL
QUESTIONS ON EXACT TIMING. TEMPS WILL RISE WITH THE INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW... LIKELY TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIGS LIFT TO VFR
ACROSS MOST OF AREA TONIGHT WITH INCREASING W/NW WINDS...GUSTING
TO 25KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MA WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CIGS DOMINATE THU AFTER LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS DURING MORNING...
PERHAPS SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA. NW WINDS GUST AS
HIGH AS 25-30KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW-END MVFR CIGS THROUGH
EVENING PUSH. COULD SEE CIGS IMPROVE TO OVC025 AS BEST CASE...BUT
NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...THEN
DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COAST MAINLY SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. PATCHY
MVFR TO LOCAL IFR VSBYS IN SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THU...AND FOR OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES
WILL RESULT IN STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS WATERS...SOLIDLY 25-30KT
GUSTS WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME 35KT GUSTS ON OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER
WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. PEAK GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU NIGHT BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO DIMINISH.

MAY SEE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON E MA WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE ANN AND MERRIMACK RIVER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE
MONDAY.

FRIDAY...NW WIND GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. SEAS START OFF AROUND 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS EARLY FRI...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BY FRI
EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
WIND SHIFT TO E-NE DURING SUN AND SEAS BUILD UP TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

MONDAY...EXPECT NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LOW PROB OF 25 KT
GUSTS AS WELL AS 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KALY 172146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALONG WITH SOME
PASSING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DESPITE
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EST...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED
DATABASE...MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT MORE FROM ALBANY NORTH
LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...INTO THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST
ONE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8 C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER.
SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS
IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW GRAINS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK...WITH VERY SLOW IMPROVING TREND TO MVFR
KGFL/KPSF/KALB EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE WEST...AND A BREEZE ALSO PICKING UP FROM
THE WEST 5-10KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS AT KPOU LOOK TO REACH INTO THE VFR THRESHOLD TONIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR EVEN LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT KPSF.

BY THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS (HIGHEST
AT KPSF AND KALB). THE WIND SHOULD HELP SCOUR CLOUDS OUT A
LITTLE...BUT STILL EXPECT CIGS...REACHING BARELY INTO THE VFR RANGE
(EXCEPT HOLDING AT HIGH MVFR AT KPSF) AFTER ABOUT 13Z THURSDAY.

SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TAFS MAINLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE
ASSIGNED A VCSH AT ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT KPOU WHERE THE THREAT WAS
LOWEST. SHOWERS COULD HELP REDUCE VISIBILITIES VERY BRIEFLY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KALB/KPSF/ AND KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 172146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALONG WITH SOME
PASSING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DESPITE
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EST...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED
DATABASE...MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT MORE FROM ALBANY NORTH
LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...INTO THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY OVERNIGHT...AS THE
LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
ASSOCIATED A COMPACT YET POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS AS IT PASSES QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BURSTS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR...INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN EVEN ACROSS SOME
VALLEY AREAS...FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH TO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMS...PERHAPS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA.
ALSO...MANY VALLEY AREAS BETWEEN ALBANY AND LAKE GEORGE COULD
RECEIVE A QUICK COATING...TO JUST UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OTHERWISE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST
ONE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8 C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY WARMER.
SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL ICE CRYSTALS
IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW GRAINS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK...WITH VERY SLOW IMPROVING TREND TO MVFR
KGFL/KPSF/KALB EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE WEST...AND A BREEZE ALSO PICKING UP FROM
THE WEST 5-10KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS AT KPOU LOOK TO REACH INTO THE VFR THRESHOLD TONIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR EVEN LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT KPSF.

BY THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS (HIGHEST
AT KPSF AND KALB). THE WIND SHOULD HELP SCOUR CLOUDS OUT A
LITTLE...BUT STILL EXPECT CIGS...REACHING BARELY INTO THE VFR RANGE
(EXCEPT HOLDING AT HIGH MVFR AT KPSF) AFTER ABOUT 13Z THURSDAY.

SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TAFS MAINLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE
ASSIGNED A VCSH AT ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT KPOU WHERE THE THREAT WAS
LOWEST. SHOWERS COULD HELP REDUCE VISIBILITIES VERY BRIEFLY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KALB/KPSF/ AND KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 172050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALONG WITH SOME
PASSING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DESPITE
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EST...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE
FIRST ONE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH
CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8 C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW GRAINS ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK...WITH VERY SLOW IMPROVING TREND TO MVFR
KGFL/KPSF/KALB EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE WEST...AND A BREEZE ALSO PICKING UP FROM
THE WEST 5-10KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS AT KPOU LOOK TO REACH INTO THE VFR THRESHOLD TONIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR EVEN LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT KPSF.

BY THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS (HIGHEST
AT KPSF AND KALB). THE WIND SHOULD HELP SCOUR CLOUDS OUT A
LITTLE...BUT STILL EXPECT CIGS...REACHING BARELY INTO THE VFR RANGE
(EXCEPT HOLDING AT HIGH MVFR AT KPSF) AFTER ABOUT 13Z THURSDAY.

SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TAFS MAINLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE
ASSIGNED A VCSH AT ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT KPOU WHERE THE THREAT WAS
LOWEST. SHOWERS COULD HELP REDUCE VISIBILITIES VERY BRIEFLY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KALB/KPSF/ AND KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 172050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALONG WITH SOME
PASSING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MOST FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THURSDAY WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL SEEP INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DESPITE
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EST...THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PASSED EAST AND NORTH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NYS/PA BORDER...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE
FIRST ONE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH THE VALLEY AREAS AS WELL
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ARE RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WITH
CLOUD TOP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -8 C RANGE OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER. SO...AT LEAST FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS...WITH JUST PERHAPS SOME SNOW GRAINS ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE NEXT ONE POISED UPSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES...AND ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FROM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES...IN
ADDITION TO OVERALL COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS...TO ALLOW FOR A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE GRADUALLY MIXING WITH...AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW OR SNOW GRAINS IN SOME VALLEY AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...OVERALL CLOUD TOP TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTALS...SO SNOW CONSISTENCY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GRAINY IN NATURE...AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AS
WELL AS ACROSS HIGHER...WEST FACING ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT.
ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES COULD GET 1-2 INCHES LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1800 FT IN EASTERN BERKSHIRE CO.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT TRUE
SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO OCCUR...BUT STILL EXPECT A
COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO PRODUCE THE
OVERNIGHT SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 MPH BY DAYBREAK...ESP IN
FAVORABLE CHANNELED W/E VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS IN THE BERKSHIRES.

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND INCREASING WIND SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THE MAV MOS SUGGESTS...AND IN SOME
AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...ESP WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT WITH...OR ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY EAST OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND WESTERN MA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN STORY FOR THU SHOULD
BE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...ESP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST...SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...WITH SKIES POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...LITCHFIELD CO CT...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE VT. IN THESE
AREAS...TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE 40S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY
30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT-FRI NT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHWARD LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER...SHALLOW
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...IT COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE THU NT. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE NW TO N IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL NYS...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY GRAZING THE
CATSKILLS. ELSEWHERE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES WILL
INCREASE IN AT LEAST VALLEY AREAS DURING FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED FOR FRI NT. TEMP THU NT SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI SHOULD BE CHILLY...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR 40 ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WITH MAINLY
20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD
BE COLDER...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S IN
VALLEYS...AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AFTER
THAT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE...BUT THEN A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER "PHASED"
SYSTEM AS HEAD TO CHRISTMAS EVE.

THE ONLY DAY THAT WE MIGHT SEE ANY SOME SUNSHINE WOULD BE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. EITHER WAY LOOK
FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO LOOK TO MID 30S SOUTH.

BY SUNDAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA...AS WELL AS SOME SORT
OF WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH IN THE JETSTREAM. ALSO...THERE
MIGHT BE AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
THAT MIGHT INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...COULD TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WHAT
LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE TYPE PRECIPITATION...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A VALLEY
RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A
BIG STORM BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THIS POSSIBLE
EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO FOR NOW WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT
CHANCES
MONDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
VALLEYS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30 IN MOST PLACES. HIGHS
MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 30S.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE EUROPEAN AND GFS FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH TO DIG IN THE NATION/S MID SECTION. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE WHAT COULD BE A
POWERFUL STORM AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TRACK OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE ALONG OR NEAR THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. IT WOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A STORM WITH THIS TRACK WOULD
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY RAIN...PERHAPS A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE FRONT
SIDE. AS IT MOVES UP TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WOULD PULL AIR IN COLD
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SWITCH LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS BY
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

THIS STORM MIGHT BRING SOME STRONG WIND TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEDNESDAY...AS IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SETUP OF THE GREAT
APPALACHIAN STORM OF 1950 AS WELL AS THE "CLEVELAND BOMB" OF 1978.
HEAVY RAIN MIGHT TRIGGER SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF
SNOW TO MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BEING NEARLY A WEEK AWAY A LOT OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD
CHANGE...BUT THIS STORM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING BY LATE CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK...WITH VERY SLOW IMPROVING TREND TO MVFR
KGFL/KPSF/KALB EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE WEST...AND A BREEZE ALSO PICKING UP FROM
THE WEST 5-10KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS AT KPOU LOOK TO REACH INTO THE VFR THRESHOLD TONIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR EVEN LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT KPSF.

BY THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS (HIGHEST
AT KPSF AND KALB). THE WIND SHOULD HELP SCOUR CLOUDS OUT A
LITTLE...BUT STILL EXPECT CIGS...REACHING BARELY INTO THE VFR RANGE
(EXCEPT HOLDING AT HIGH MVFR AT KPSF) AFTER ABOUT 13Z THURSDAY.

SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TAFS MAINLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE
ASSIGNED A VCSH AT ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT KPOU WHERE THE THREAT WAS
LOWEST. SHOWERS COULD HELP REDUCE VISIBILITIES VERY BRIEFLY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KALB/KPSF/ AND KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...WITH MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBOX 171925
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
225 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
225 PM UPDATE...

SEEING A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THESE TO FILL BACK IN AS WE APPROACH
SUNSET DUE TO LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER REGION.

STILL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING PER
HIGH-RES MODELS...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP EARLY
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED NORTH OF MASS PIKE...BUT COULD SEE A
FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO PARTS OF N CT...RI AND SE MA AS
WELL. NOT LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR ANY SNOW SQUALLS PER BTV
4KM WRF AND OTHER HIGH-RES MODELS. DESPITE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE
AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...LACKING GOOD
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES. SO OUR THINKING IS WE WILL SEE
DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT
MOST...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO 30S...WITH FREEZING LINE PROBABLY
STAYING JUST W OF I-495 CORRIDOR IN E MA BY DAYBREAK THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT TO SEE FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THU MORNING ACROSS NE MA
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THU AND THU
NIGHT.

GUSTY W/NW WINDS /30-35 MPH/ ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT
CLOUDINESS A BIT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TOTAL CLEARING AS UPPER
TROUGH STILL HANGS BACK FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GREAT LAKES...EVEN
THROUGH THU NIGHT.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS
FROM UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE THU...AND LOWS MAINLY IN 20S THU
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIGS LIFT TO VFR
ACROSS MOST OF AREA TONIGHT WITH INCREASING W/NW WINDS...GUSTING
TO 25KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MA WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CIGS DOMINATE THU AFTER LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS DURING MORNING...
PERHAPS SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA. NW WINDS GUST AS
HIGH AS 25-30KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW-END MVFR CIGS THROUGH
EVENING PUSH. COULD SEE CIGS IMPROVE TO OVC025 AS BEST CASE...BUT
NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THU...AND FOR OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES
WILL RESULT IN STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS WATERS...SOLIDLY 25-30KT
GUSTS WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME 35KT GUSTS ON OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER
WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. PEAK GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU NIGHT BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO DIMINISH.

MAY SEE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON E MA WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE ANN AND MERRIMACK RIVER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 171925
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
225 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
225 PM UPDATE...

SEEING A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THESE TO FILL BACK IN AS WE APPROACH
SUNSET DUE TO LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER REGION.

STILL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING PER
HIGH-RES MODELS...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP EARLY
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED NORTH OF MASS PIKE...BUT COULD SEE A
FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS INTO PARTS OF N CT...RI AND SE MA AS
WELL. NOT LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR ANY SNOW SQUALLS PER BTV
4KM WRF AND OTHER HIGH-RES MODELS. DESPITE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE
AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...LACKING GOOD
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES. SO OUR THINKING IS WE WILL SEE
DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT
MOST...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO 30S...WITH FREEZING LINE PROBABLY
STAYING JUST W OF I-495 CORRIDOR IN E MA BY DAYBREAK THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT TO SEE FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THU MORNING ACROSS NE MA
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THU AND THU
NIGHT.

GUSTY W/NW WINDS /30-35 MPH/ ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT
CLOUDINESS A BIT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TOTAL CLEARING AS UPPER
TROUGH STILL HANGS BACK FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GREAT LAKES...EVEN
THROUGH THU NIGHT.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS
FROM UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE THU...AND LOWS MAINLY IN 20S THU
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIGS LIFT TO VFR
ACROSS MOST OF AREA TONIGHT WITH INCREASING W/NW WINDS...GUSTING
TO 25KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MA WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CIGS DOMINATE THU AFTER LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS DURING MORNING...
PERHAPS SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA. NW WINDS GUST AS
HIGH AS 25-30KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW-END MVFR CIGS THROUGH
EVENING PUSH. COULD SEE CIGS IMPROVE TO OVC025 AS BEST CASE...BUT
NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THU...AND FOR OUTER
WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER MARITIMES
WILL RESULT IN STRONG W/NW WINDS ACROSS WATERS...SOLIDLY 25-30KT
GUSTS WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME 35KT GUSTS ON OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER
WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. PEAK GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU NIGHT BUT SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO DIMINISH.

MAY SEE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON E MA WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE ANN AND MERRIMACK RIVER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KALY 171728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1225 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST...ANOTHER UPDATE TO MAINLY REFLECT RAPIDLY
IMPROVING TRENDS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHILE OTHER AREAS REMAINED
SOCKED IN CLOUDS...RESIDUAL FOG AND A FEW SHOWERS.

THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUES EAST BUT WE REMAIN IN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WHICH CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST OF OUR REGION SOCKED
IN CLOUDS AND EVEN A LITTLE FOG. IN FACT...ONE MORE SHORT WAVE HAS
YET TO ROTATE THROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS FROM THE I-90 WILL REMAIN
SOCKED IN THE CLOUDS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL. RADARS INDICATED A
FEW MORE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK...LAKE ENHANCED BUT
CERTAINLY NOT PURE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION.

THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEP TODAY SO EVEN DOWN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WE BELIEVE MORE
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH EVEN A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE (ISOLATED SHOWERS)...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THAT SHORT WAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...MAINLY IN THE MID OR
UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S DOWN SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
SPIKE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH...BUT MIGHT ALREADY BE CRESTING
NORTH...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1-3 DEGREES...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS AROUND 40 VALLEYS AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...HOLDING IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE TERRAIN.

WITH INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY SHOWERS OVER THE HILLTOWNS WILL
MIX BACK OR CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY.

THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH OR SO
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. ANY FOG SHOULD SCOUR
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST...STILL DEALING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL THE
TAF SITES OTHER THAN KPOU WHICH WAS WAS MVFR. AN UPPER LEVEL WILL
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SITES THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK...WITH VERY
SLOW IMPROVING TREND TO MVFR KGFL/KPSF/KALB EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE WEST...AND A
BREEZE ALSO PICKING UP FROM THE WEST 5-10KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS AT KPOU LOOK TO REACH INTO THE VFR THRESHOLD TONIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR EVEN LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT KPSF.

BY THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS (HIGHEST
AT KPSF AND KALB). THE WIND SHOULD HELP SCOUR CLOUDS OUT A
LITTLE...BUT STILL EXPECT CIGS...REACHING BARELY INTO THE VFR RANGE
(EXCEPT HOLDING AT HIGH MVFR AT KPSF) AFTER ABOUT 13Z THURSDAY.

SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TAFS MAINLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE
ASSIGNED A VCSH AT ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT KPOU WHERE THE THREAT WAS
LOWEST. SHOWERS COULD HELP REDUCE VISIBILITIES VERY BRIEFLY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KALB/KPSF/ AND KGFL.


OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SUN NIGHT-MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 171728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1225 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST...ANOTHER UPDATE TO MAINLY REFLECT RAPIDLY
IMPROVING TRENDS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHILE OTHER AREAS REMAINED
SOCKED IN CLOUDS...RESIDUAL FOG AND A FEW SHOWERS.

THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUES EAST BUT WE REMAIN IN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WHICH CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST OF OUR REGION SOCKED
IN CLOUDS AND EVEN A LITTLE FOG. IN FACT...ONE MORE SHORT WAVE HAS
YET TO ROTATE THROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS FROM THE I-90 WILL REMAIN
SOCKED IN THE CLOUDS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL. RADARS INDICATED A
FEW MORE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK...LAKE ENHANCED BUT
CERTAINLY NOT PURE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION.

THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEP TODAY SO EVEN DOWN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WE BELIEVE MORE
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH EVEN A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE (ISOLATED SHOWERS)...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THAT SHORT WAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...MAINLY IN THE MID OR
UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S DOWN SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
SPIKE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH...BUT MIGHT ALREADY BE CRESTING
NORTH...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1-3 DEGREES...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS AROUND 40 VALLEYS AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...HOLDING IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE TERRAIN.

WITH INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY SHOWERS OVER THE HILLTOWNS WILL
MIX BACK OR CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY.

THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH OR SO
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. ANY FOG SHOULD SCOUR
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM EST...STILL DEALING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL THE
TAF SITES OTHER THAN KPOU WHICH WAS WAS MVFR. AN UPPER LEVEL WILL
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SITES THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK...WITH VERY
SLOW IMPROVING TREND TO MVFR KGFL/KPSF/KALB EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN THE FROM THE WEST...AND A
BREEZE ALSO PICKING UP FROM THE WEST 5-10KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CIGS AT KPOU LOOK TO REACH INTO THE VFR THRESHOLD TONIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR EVEN LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED) AT KPSF.

BY THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS (HIGHEST
AT KPSF AND KALB). THE WIND SHOULD HELP SCOUR CLOUDS OUT A
LITTLE...BUT STILL EXPECT CIGS...REACHING BARELY INTO THE VFR RANGE
(EXCEPT HOLDING AT HIGH MVFR AT KPSF) AFTER ABOUT 13Z THURSDAY.

SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TAFS MAINLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE
ASSIGNED A VCSH AT ALL THE TAFS EXCEPT KPOU WHERE THE THREAT WAS
LOWEST. SHOWERS COULD HELP REDUCE VISIBILITIES VERY BRIEFLY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KALB/KPSF/ AND KGFL.


OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SUN NIGHT-MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KBOX 171720
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1220 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH
TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1220 PM UPDATE...

GETTING SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE DEVELOPING W/NW FLOW...EXPECT ANY BREAKS
TO BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF UPPER
TROUGH STILL OVER REGION. HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP THINGS ESSENTIALLY
DRY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR...MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

FORECAST HIGHS WERE TRIMMED DOWN A BIT GIVEN EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER...MAINLY IN 40S WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WHILE THE
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN IT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  IN
FACT...TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 MAY EVEN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY
SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH BEST SHOT NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  ACCUMS MAINLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.  LOW PROBABILITY
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER IF A SQUALL OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...

A LEFT OVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR CIGS/VSBYS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS E MA BUT SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO MVFR CIGS AS FOG DISSIPATES BY 21Z. ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING.

CIGS LIFT TO VFR ACROSS MOST OF AREA TONIGHT WITH INCREASING W/NW
WINDS...GUSTING TO 25KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. ALSO EXPECT
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MA WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CIGS DOMINATE THU AFTER LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS DURING MORNING...
PERHAPS SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA. NW WINDS GUST AS
HIGH AS 25-30KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
MAY BE A LITTLE FAST...BUT WITH INCREASING NW FLOW SHOULD IMPROVE
BEFORE EVENING PUSH /20-21Z/.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY.  THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  A PERIOD OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
WE FELT IT WAS TOO MARGINAL TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171720
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1220 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH
TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1220 PM UPDATE...

GETTING SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE DEVELOPING W/NW FLOW...EXPECT ANY BREAKS
TO BE SHORT LIVED DUE TO LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF UPPER
TROUGH STILL OVER REGION. HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP THINGS ESSENTIALLY
DRY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR...MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

FORECAST HIGHS WERE TRIMMED DOWN A BIT GIVEN EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER...MAINLY IN 40S WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WHILE THE
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN IT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  IN
FACT...TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 MAY EVEN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY
SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH BEST SHOT NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  ACCUMS MAINLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.  LOW PROBABILITY
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER IF A SQUALL OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...

A LEFT OVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR CIGS/VSBYS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS E MA BUT SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO MVFR CIGS AS FOG DISSIPATES BY 21Z. ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING.

CIGS LIFT TO VFR ACROSS MOST OF AREA TONIGHT WITH INCREASING W/NW
WINDS...GUSTING TO 25KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. ALSO EXPECT
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MA WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CIGS DOMINATE THU AFTER LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS DURING MORNING...
PERHAPS SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE MA. NW WINDS GUST AS
HIGH AS 25-30KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
MAY BE A LITTLE FAST...BUT WITH INCREASING NW FLOW SHOULD IMPROVE
BEFORE EVENING PUSH /20-21Z/.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY.  THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  A PERIOD OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
WE FELT IT WAS TOO MARGINAL TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 171636
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1135 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST...ANOTHER UPDATE TO MAINLY REFLECT RAPIDLY
IMPROVING TRENDS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHILE OTHER AREAS REMAINED
SOCKED IN CLOUDS...RESIDUAL FOG AND A FEW SHOWERS.

THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUES EAST BUT WE REMAIN IN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WHICH CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST OF OUR REGION SOCKED
IN CLOUDS AND EVEN A LITTLE FOG. IN FACT...ONE MORE SHORT WAVE HAS
YET TO ROTATE THROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS FROM THE I-90 WILL REMAIN
SOCKED IN THE CLOUDS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL. RADARS INDICATED A
FEW MORE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK...LAKE ENHANCED BUT
CERTAINLY NOT PURE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION.

THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEP TODAY SO EVEN DOWN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WE BELIEVE MORE
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH EVEN A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE (ISOLATED SHOWERS)...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THAT SHORT WAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...MAINLY IN THE MID OR
UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S DOWN SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
SPIKE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH...BUT MIGHT ALREADY BE CRESTING
NORTH...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1-3 DEGREES...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS AROUND 40 VALLEYS AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...HOLDING IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE TERRAIN.

WITH INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY SHOWERS OVER THE HILLTOWNS WILL
MIX BACK OR CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY.

THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH OR SO
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. ANY FOG SHOULD SCOUR
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW AND OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
ESPECIALLY EARLY. ONLY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AT KPSF AND KGFL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE THEY
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHEN
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THEY WILL INCREASE SPEED ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 171636
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1135 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1130 AM EST...ANOTHER UPDATE TO MAINLY REFLECT RAPIDLY
IMPROVING TRENDS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHILE OTHER AREAS REMAINED
SOCKED IN CLOUDS...RESIDUAL FOG AND A FEW SHOWERS.

THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUES EAST BUT WE REMAIN IN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WHICH CONTINUES TO KEEP MOST OF OUR REGION SOCKED
IN CLOUDS AND EVEN A LITTLE FOG. IN FACT...ONE MORE SHORT WAVE HAS
YET TO ROTATE THROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS FROM THE I-90 WILL REMAIN
SOCKED IN THE CLOUDS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL. RADARS INDICATED A
FEW MORE SHOWERS WORKING DOWN THE MOHAWK...LAKE ENHANCED BUT
CERTAINLY NOT PURE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION.

THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STEEP TODAY SO EVEN DOWN IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WE BELIEVE MORE
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH EVEN A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE (ISOLATED SHOWERS)...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THAT SHORT WAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE...MAINLY IN THE MID OR
UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S DOWN SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
SPIKE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH...BUT MIGHT ALREADY BE CRESTING
NORTH...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1-3 DEGREES...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS AROUND 40 VALLEYS AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...HOLDING IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE TERRAIN.

WITH INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY SHOWERS OVER THE HILLTOWNS WILL
MIX BACK OR CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY.

THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH OR SO
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. ANY FOG SHOULD SCOUR
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW AND OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
ESPECIALLY EARLY. ONLY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AT KPSF AND KGFL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE THEY
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHEN
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THEY WILL INCREASE SPEED ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KBOX 171436
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
936 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY AFTERNOON...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
935 AM UPDATE...

LOW PRESSURE WAS EXITING E MA COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL HEAD TO
GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. BACK EDGE OF STEADIER RAIN WAS
LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...WITH DRYING ALREADY EVIDENT
INTO PORTIONS OF CT/WESTERN MA WHERE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
WERE SHOWING UP ON VISIBLE SATELLITE.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT/RI/SE MA. FARTHER N...NEXT APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDINESS MORE ENTRENCHED ALONG WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING AFTERNOON.

FORECAST HIGHS IN 40S LOOK GOOD WITH SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS SE NEW
ENGLAND. IF MORE IN WAY OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPS WE COULD SEE MORE 50
DEGREE READINGS ACROSS CT/RI AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WHILE THE
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN IT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  IN
FACT...TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 MAY EVEN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY
SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH BEST SHOT NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  ACCUMS MAINLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.  LOW PROBABILITY
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER IF A SQUALL OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...

A LEFT OVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SOME LEFTOVER IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS RI AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA...OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM S TO N. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
RAIN HAS LIFTED N OF AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS N MA
WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  MAY EVEN SEE A LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SQUALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS MAY LIFT TO VFR A
LITTLE SOONER THAN IN TAF...BUT CONFIDENT IN TRENDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY.  THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  A PERIOD OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
WE FELT IT WAS TOO MARGINAL TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 171436
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
936 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY AFTERNOON...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
935 AM UPDATE...

LOW PRESSURE WAS EXITING E MA COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL HEAD TO
GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. BACK EDGE OF STEADIER RAIN WAS
LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...WITH DRYING ALREADY EVIDENT
INTO PORTIONS OF CT/WESTERN MA WHERE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
WERE SHOWING UP ON VISIBLE SATELLITE.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT/RI/SE MA. FARTHER N...NEXT APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDINESS MORE ENTRENCHED ALONG WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING AFTERNOON.

FORECAST HIGHS IN 40S LOOK GOOD WITH SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS SE NEW
ENGLAND. IF MORE IN WAY OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPS WE COULD SEE MORE 50
DEGREE READINGS ACROSS CT/RI AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WHILE THE
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN IT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  IN
FACT...TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 MAY EVEN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY
SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH BEST SHOT NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  ACCUMS MAINLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.  LOW PROBABILITY
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER IF A SQUALL OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...

A LEFT OVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SOME LEFTOVER IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS RI AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA...OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM S TO N. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
RAIN HAS LIFTED N OF AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS N MA
WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  MAY EVEN SEE A LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SQUALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS MAY LIFT TO VFR A
LITTLE SOONER THAN IN TAF...BUT CONFIDENT IN TRENDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY.  THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  A PERIOD OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
WE FELT IT WAS TOO MARGINAL TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KALY 171304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
805 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 800 AM EST...A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD FOG IN ACROSS THE BOARD
(PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG). OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES.

AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR AREA AND WAS LOCATED
OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.  THE PARENT LOW
OF THIS STORM IS LOCATED NEAR THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
ONTARIO...WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING ALONG THE STORM/S
TRIPLE POINT NEAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM REMAINS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE STRENGTHENING SECONDARY LOW AND THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...BANDS OF SHOWERS...SOME WITH HEAVIER
ECHOES...HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS OUR AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THESE BANDS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN SHELTERED
ELEVATED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE BERKSHIRES...ARE STILL SITTING AT 32 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE ISOLATED LOCATIONS FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS
ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN THREAT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND
UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...AS COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER OR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. STILL...THERE MAY BE
SOME SLICK SPOTS IN THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS...SO CAUTION IS
URGED IF TRAVELING IN THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY AND EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT...THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...ESP BY LATER THIS AFTN...AS 850 HPA TEMPS COOL TO -3
TO -6 DEGREES BY LATE TODAY.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION
LOOKS TO REACH THE LOW 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE CATSKILLS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THERE
THAN OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW AND OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
ESPECIALLY EARLY. ONLY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AT KPSF AND KGFL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE THEY
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHEN
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THEY WILL INCREASE SPEED ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KALY 171304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
805 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 800 AM EST...A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD FOG IN ACROSS THE BOARD
(PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG). OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES.

AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR AREA AND WAS LOCATED
OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.  THE PARENT LOW
OF THIS STORM IS LOCATED NEAR THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
ONTARIO...WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING ALONG THE STORM/S
TRIPLE POINT NEAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM REMAINS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE STRENGTHENING SECONDARY LOW AND THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...BANDS OF SHOWERS...SOME WITH HEAVIER
ECHOES...HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS OUR AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THESE BANDS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN SHELTERED
ELEVATED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE BERKSHIRES...ARE STILL SITTING AT 32 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE ISOLATED LOCATIONS FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS
ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN THREAT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND
UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...AS COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER OR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. STILL...THERE MAY BE
SOME SLICK SPOTS IN THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS...SO CAUTION IS
URGED IF TRAVELING IN THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY AND EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT...THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...ESP BY LATER THIS AFTN...AS 850 HPA TEMPS COOL TO -3
TO -6 DEGREES BY LATE TODAY.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION
LOOKS TO REACH THE LOW 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE CATSKILLS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THERE
THAN OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW AND OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
ESPECIALLY EARLY. ONLY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AT KPSF AND KGFL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE THEY
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHEN
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THEY WILL INCREASE SPEED ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KALY 171304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
805 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 800 AM EST...A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD FOG IN ACROSS THE BOARD
(PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG). OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES.

AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR AREA AND WAS LOCATED
OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.  THE PARENT LOW
OF THIS STORM IS LOCATED NEAR THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
ONTARIO...WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING ALONG THE STORM/S
TRIPLE POINT NEAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM REMAINS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE STRENGTHENING SECONDARY LOW AND THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...BANDS OF SHOWERS...SOME WITH HEAVIER
ECHOES...HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS OUR AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THESE BANDS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN SHELTERED
ELEVATED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE BERKSHIRES...ARE STILL SITTING AT 32 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE ISOLATED LOCATIONS FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS
ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN THREAT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND
UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...AS COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER OR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. STILL...THERE MAY BE
SOME SLICK SPOTS IN THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS...SO CAUTION IS
URGED IF TRAVELING IN THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY AND EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT...THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...ESP BY LATER THIS AFTN...AS 850 HPA TEMPS COOL TO -3
TO -6 DEGREES BY LATE TODAY.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION
LOOKS TO REACH THE LOW 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE CATSKILLS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THERE
THAN OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW AND OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
ESPECIALLY EARLY. ONLY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AT KPSF AND KGFL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE THEY
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHEN
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THEY WILL INCREASE SPEED ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KALY 171304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
805 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 800 AM EST...A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD FOG IN ACROSS THE BOARD
(PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG). OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES.

AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR AREA AND WAS LOCATED
OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.  THE PARENT LOW
OF THIS STORM IS LOCATED NEAR THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
ONTARIO...WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING ALONG THE STORM/S
TRIPLE POINT NEAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM REMAINS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE STRENGTHENING SECONDARY LOW AND THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...BANDS OF SHOWERS...SOME WITH HEAVIER
ECHOES...HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS OUR AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THESE BANDS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN SHELTERED
ELEVATED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE BERKSHIRES...ARE STILL SITTING AT 32 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE ISOLATED LOCATIONS FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS
ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN THREAT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND
UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...AS COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER OR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. STILL...THERE MAY BE
SOME SLICK SPOTS IN THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS...SO CAUTION IS
URGED IF TRAVELING IN THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY AND EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT...THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...ESP BY LATER THIS AFTN...AS 850 HPA TEMPS COOL TO -3
TO -6 DEGREES BY LATE TODAY.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION
LOOKS TO REACH THE LOW 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE CATSKILLS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THERE
THAN OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW AND OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
ESPECIALLY EARLY. ONLY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AT KPSF AND KGFL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE THEY
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHEN
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THEY WILL INCREASE SPEED ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KALY 171152
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 652 AM EST...AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY HAS PASSED THROUGH OUR AREA
AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND.  THE PARENT LOW OF THIS STORM IS LOCATED NEAR THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF ONTARIO...WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE POINT NEAR EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE STRENGTHENING SECONDARY LOW AND THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...BANDS OF SHOWERS...SOME WITH HEAVIER
ECHOES...HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS OUR AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THESE BANDS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN SHELTERED
ELEVATED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE BERKSHIRES...ARE STILL SITTING AT 32 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE ISOLATED LOCATIONS FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS
ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN THREAT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND
UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...AS COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER OR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. STILL...THERE MAY BE
SOME SLICK SPOTS IN THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS...SO CAUTION IS
URGED IF TRAVELING IN THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY AND EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO
BE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT...THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...ESP BY LATER THIS AFTN...AS 850 HPA TEMPS COOL TO -3
TO -6 DEGREES BY LATE TODAY.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION
LOOKS TO REACH THE LOW 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE CATSKILLS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THERE
THAN OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW AND OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME THE
DOMINATE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
ESPECIALLY EARLY. ONLY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AT KPSF AND KGFL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE THEY
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHEN
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THEY WILL INCREASE SPEED ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 171145
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
645 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE COAST BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE.  DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF
TODAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.   WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

SECONDARY LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANAL AT THIS TIME PER LATEST
WIND OBSERVATIONS. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO NORTHEASTWARD PUSHING
THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP WITH IT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE MOVING ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA FROM ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS
SHOWALTERS DROP TO NEAR 0. DRY AIR ALOFT IS ALSO STARTING TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION AND EXPECT PRECIP TO COME TO AN END BY THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. FOG IS ALSO STARTING TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. ASIDE
FROM A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...THE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

450 AM UPDATE...

SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WAS RESULTING
IN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP.  THIS RAIN WAS ALREADY QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  FORTUNATELY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THE MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN MA COAST BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM.

ONCE THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXITS THE COAST BY MID MORNING...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.  CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...BUT A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WHILE THE
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN IT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  IN
FACT...TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 MAY EVEN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY
SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH BEST SHOT NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  ACCUMS MAINLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.  LOW PROBABILITY
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER IF A SQUALL OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...

A LEFT OVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER AS BULK OF RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN
MA COAST BY 9 AM. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY REMAIN IFR.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  MAY EVEN SEE A LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SQUALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY.  THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  A PERIOD OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
WE FELT IT WAS TOO MARGINAL TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171145
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
645 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE COAST BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE.  DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF
TODAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.   WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

SECONDARY LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANAL AT THIS TIME PER LATEST
WIND OBSERVATIONS. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO NORTHEASTWARD PUSHING
THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP WITH IT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE MOVING ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA FROM ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS
SHOWALTERS DROP TO NEAR 0. DRY AIR ALOFT IS ALSO STARTING TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION AND EXPECT PRECIP TO COME TO AN END BY THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. FOG IS ALSO STARTING TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. ASIDE
FROM A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...THE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

450 AM UPDATE...

SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WAS RESULTING
IN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP.  THIS RAIN WAS ALREADY QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  FORTUNATELY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THE MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN MA COAST BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM.

ONCE THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXITS THE COAST BY MID MORNING...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.  CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...BUT A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WHILE THE
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN IT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  IN
FACT...TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 MAY EVEN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY
SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH BEST SHOT NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  ACCUMS MAINLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.  LOW PROBABILITY
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER IF A SQUALL OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...

A LEFT OVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER AS BULK OF RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN
MA COAST BY 9 AM. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY REMAIN IFR.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  MAY EVEN SEE A LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SQUALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY.  THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  A PERIOD OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
WE FELT IT WAS TOO MARGINAL TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171145
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
645 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE COAST BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE.  DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF
TODAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.   WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

SECONDARY LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANAL AT THIS TIME PER LATEST
WIND OBSERVATIONS. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO NORTHEASTWARD PUSHING
THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP WITH IT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE MOVING ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA FROM ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS
SHOWALTERS DROP TO NEAR 0. DRY AIR ALOFT IS ALSO STARTING TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION AND EXPECT PRECIP TO COME TO AN END BY THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. FOG IS ALSO STARTING TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. ASIDE
FROM A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...THE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

450 AM UPDATE...

SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WAS RESULTING
IN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP.  THIS RAIN WAS ALREADY QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  FORTUNATELY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THE MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN MA COAST BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM.

ONCE THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXITS THE COAST BY MID MORNING...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.  CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...BUT A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WHILE THE
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN IT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  IN
FACT...TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 MAY EVEN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY
SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH BEST SHOT NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  ACCUMS MAINLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.  LOW PROBABILITY
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER IF A SQUALL OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...

A LEFT OVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER AS BULK OF RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN
MA COAST BY 9 AM. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY REMAIN IFR.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  MAY EVEN SEE A LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SQUALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY.  THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  A PERIOD OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
WE FELT IT WAS TOO MARGINAL TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171145
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
645 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE COAST BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE.  DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF
TODAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.   WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

SECONDARY LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANAL AT THIS TIME PER LATEST
WIND OBSERVATIONS. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO NORTHEASTWARD PUSHING
THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP WITH IT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE MOVING ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA FROM ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS
SHOWALTERS DROP TO NEAR 0. DRY AIR ALOFT IS ALSO STARTING TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION AND EXPECT PRECIP TO COME TO AN END BY THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. FOG IS ALSO STARTING TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. ASIDE
FROM A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...THE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

450 AM UPDATE...

SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WAS RESULTING
IN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP.  THIS RAIN WAS ALREADY QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  FORTUNATELY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THE MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN MA COAST BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM.

ONCE THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXITS THE COAST BY MID MORNING...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.  CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...BUT A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WHILE THE
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN IT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  IN
FACT...TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 MAY EVEN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY
SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH BEST SHOT NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  ACCUMS MAINLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.  LOW PROBABILITY
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER IF A SQUALL OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...

A LEFT OVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER AS BULK OF RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN
MA COAST BY 9 AM. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY REMAIN IFR.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  MAY EVEN SEE A LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SQUALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY.  THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  A PERIOD OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
WE FELT IT WAS TOO MARGINAL TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 170952
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
450 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE COAST BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE.  DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF
TODAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.   WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

450 AM UPDATE...

SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WAS RESULTING
IN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP.  THIS RAIN WAS ALREADY QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  FORTUNATELY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THE MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN MA COAST BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM.

ONCE THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXITS THE COAST BY MID MORNING...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.  CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...BUT A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WHILE THE
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN IT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  IN
FACT...TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 MAY EVEN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY
SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH BEST SHOT NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  ACCUMS MAINLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.  LOW PROBABILITY
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER IF A SQUALL OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...

A LEFT OVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN A BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH 7
AM.  BULK OF RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN MA COAST BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW MOST AREAS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY REMAIN IFR.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  MAY EVEN SEE A LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SQUALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 7 AM.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY.  THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  A PERIOD OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
WE FELT IT WAS TOO MARGINAL TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 170952
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
450 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE COAST BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE.  DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF
TODAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.   WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

450 AM UPDATE...

SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WAS RESULTING
IN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP.  THIS RAIN WAS ALREADY QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  FORTUNATELY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THE MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN MA COAST BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM.

ONCE THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXITS THE COAST BY MID MORNING...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.  CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...BUT A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WHILE THE
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN IT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  IN
FACT...TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 MAY EVEN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY
SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH BEST SHOT NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  ACCUMS MAINLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.  LOW PROBABILITY
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER IF A SQUALL OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...

A LEFT OVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN A BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH 7
AM.  BULK OF RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN MA COAST BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW MOST AREAS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY REMAIN IFR.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  MAY EVEN SEE A LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SQUALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 7 AM.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY.  THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  A PERIOD OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
WE FELT IT WAS TOO MARGINAL TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 170952
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
450 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE COAST BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE.  DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF
TODAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.   WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

450 AM UPDATE...

SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WAS RESULTING
IN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP.  THIS RAIN WAS ALREADY QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  FORTUNATELY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THE MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN MA COAST BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM.

ONCE THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXITS THE COAST BY MID MORNING...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.  CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...BUT A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WHILE THE
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN IT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  IN
FACT...TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 MAY EVEN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY
SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH BEST SHOT NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  ACCUMS MAINLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.  LOW PROBABILITY
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER IF A SQUALL OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...

A LEFT OVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN A BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH 7
AM.  BULK OF RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN MA COAST BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW MOST AREAS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY REMAIN IFR.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  MAY EVEN SEE A LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SQUALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 7 AM.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY.  THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  A PERIOD OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
WE FELT IT WAS TOO MARGINAL TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 170952
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
450 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE COAST BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE.  DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF
TODAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.   WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

450 AM UPDATE...

SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WAS RESULTING
IN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP.  THIS RAIN WAS ALREADY QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  FORTUNATELY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THE MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN MA COAST BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM.

ONCE THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXITS THE COAST BY MID MORNING...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.  CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...BUT A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WHILE THE
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN IT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  IN
FACT...TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 MAY EVEN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY
SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH BEST SHOT NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  ACCUMS MAINLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.  LOW PROBABILITY
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER IF A SQUALL OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...

A LEFT OVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN A BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH 7
AM.  BULK OF RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN MA COAST BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW MOST AREAS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY REMAIN IFR.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  MAY EVEN SEE A LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SQUALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 7 AM.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY.  THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  A PERIOD OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
WE FELT IT WAS TOO MARGINAL TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 170916
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE COAST BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE.  DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF
TODAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.   WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WAS RESULTING
IN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP.  THIS RAIN WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR ZERO MAY
EVEN BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THIS RAIN WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.  FORTUNATELY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...SO
THE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN MA COAST BETWEEN 7
AND 9 AM.

ONCE THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXITS THE COAST BY MID MORNING...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.  CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...BUT A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WHILE THE
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN IT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  IN
FACT...TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 MAY EVEN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY
SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH BEST SHOT NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  ACCUMS MAINLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.  LOW PROBABILITY
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER IF A SQUALL OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...

A LEFT OVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN A BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH 7
AM WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  BULK OF RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN MA COAST BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW MOST AREAS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY REMAIN IFR.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  MAY EVEN SEE A LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SQUALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 7 AM.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY.  THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT.  WE FELT IT WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 170916
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE COAST BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE.  DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF
TODAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.   WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WAS RESULTING
IN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP.  THIS RAIN WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR ZERO MAY
EVEN BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THIS RAIN WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.  FORTUNATELY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...SO
THE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN MA COAST BETWEEN 7
AND 9 AM.

ONCE THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXITS THE COAST BY MID MORNING...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.  CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...BUT A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WHILE THE
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN IT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  IN
FACT...TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 MAY EVEN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY
SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH BEST SHOT NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  ACCUMS MAINLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.  LOW PROBABILITY
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER IF A SQUALL OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...

A LEFT OVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN A BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH 7
AM WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  BULK OF RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN MA COAST BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW MOST AREAS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY REMAIN IFR.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  MAY EVEN SEE A LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SQUALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 7 AM.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY.  THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT.  WE FELT IT WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 170916
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE COAST BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE.  DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF
TODAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.   WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WAS RESULTING
IN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP.  THIS RAIN WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR ZERO MAY
EVEN BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THIS RAIN WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.  FORTUNATELY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...SO
THE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN MA COAST BETWEEN 7
AND 9 AM.

ONCE THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXITS THE COAST BY MID MORNING...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.  CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...BUT A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WHILE THE
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN IT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  IN
FACT...TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 MAY EVEN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY
SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH BEST SHOT NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  ACCUMS MAINLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.  LOW PROBABILITY
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER IF A SQUALL OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...

A LEFT OVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN A BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH 7
AM WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  BULK OF RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN MA COAST BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW MOST AREAS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY REMAIN IFR.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  MAY EVEN SEE A LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SQUALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 7 AM.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY.  THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT.  WE FELT IT WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 170916
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE COAST BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE.  DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF
TODAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.   WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WAS RESULTING
IN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP.  THIS RAIN WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR ZERO MAY
EVEN BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THIS RAIN WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.  FORTUNATELY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...SO
THE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN MA COAST BETWEEN 7
AND 9 AM.

ONCE THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXITS THE COAST BY MID MORNING...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.  CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...BUT A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WHILE THE
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN IT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  IN
FACT...TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 MAY EVEN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY
SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH BEST SHOT NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  ACCUMS MAINLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.  LOW PROBABILITY
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER IF A SQUALL OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...

A LEFT OVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN A BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH 7
AM WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  BULK OF RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN MA COAST BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW MOST AREAS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY REMAIN IFR.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  MAY EVEN SEE A LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SQUALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 7 AM.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY.  THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT.  WE FELT IT WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 170916
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE COAST BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE.  DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF
TODAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.   WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WAS RESULTING
IN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP.  THIS RAIN WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR ZERO MAY
EVEN BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THIS RAIN WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.  FORTUNATELY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...SO
THE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN MA COAST BETWEEN 7
AND 9 AM.

ONCE THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXITS THE COAST BY MID MORNING...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.  CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...BUT A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WHILE THE
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN IT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  IN
FACT...TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 MAY EVEN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY
SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH BEST SHOT NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  ACCUMS MAINLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.  LOW PROBABILITY
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER IF A SQUALL OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...

A LEFT OVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN A BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH 7
AM WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  BULK OF RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN MA COAST BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW MOST AREAS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY REMAIN IFR.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  MAY EVEN SEE A LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SQUALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 7 AM.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY.  THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT.  WE FELT IT WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 170916
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE COAST BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE.  DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF
TODAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.   WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WAS RESULTING
IN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP.  THIS RAIN WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR ZERO MAY
EVEN BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THIS RAIN WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.  FORTUNATELY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...SO
THE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN MA COAST BETWEEN 7
AND 9 AM.

ONCE THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXITS THE COAST BY MID MORNING...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.  CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...BUT A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WHILE THE
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN IT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  IN
FACT...TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 MAY EVEN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY
SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH BEST SHOT NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  ACCUMS MAINLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.  LOW PROBABILITY
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER IF A SQUALL OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...

A LEFT OVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN A BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH 7
AM WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  BULK OF RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN MA COAST BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW MOST AREAS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY REMAIN IFR.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  MAY EVEN SEE A LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SQUALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 7 AM.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY.  THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT.  WE FELT IT WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 170916
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE COAST BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE.  DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF
TODAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.   WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WAS RESULTING
IN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP.  THIS RAIN WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR ZERO MAY
EVEN BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THIS RAIN WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.  FORTUNATELY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...SO
THE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN MA COAST BETWEEN 7
AND 9 AM.

ONCE THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXITS THE COAST BY MID MORNING...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.  CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...BUT A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WHILE THE
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN IT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  IN
FACT...TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 MAY EVEN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY
SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH BEST SHOT NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  ACCUMS MAINLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.  LOW PROBABILITY
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER IF A SQUALL OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...

A LEFT OVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN A BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH 7
AM WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  BULK OF RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN MA COAST BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW MOST AREAS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY REMAIN IFR.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  MAY EVEN SEE A LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SQUALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 7 AM.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY.  THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT.  WE FELT IT WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 170916
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE COAST BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE.  DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF
TODAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.   WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WAS RESULTING
IN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP.  THIS RAIN WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR ZERO MAY
EVEN BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THIS RAIN WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.  FORTUNATELY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...SO
THE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN MA COAST BETWEEN 7
AND 9 AM.

ONCE THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXITS THE COAST BY MID MORNING...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.  CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...BUT A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WHILE THE
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN IT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  IN
FACT...TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 MAY EVEN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY
SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH BEST SHOT NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  ACCUMS MAINLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.  LOW PROBABILITY
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER IF A SQUALL OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...

A LEFT OVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN A BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH 7
AM WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  BULK OF RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN MA COAST BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW MOST AREAS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY REMAIN IFR.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  MAY EVEN SEE A LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SQUALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 7 AM.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY.  THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT.  WE FELT IT WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 170916
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE COAST BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE.  DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF
TODAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.   WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WAS RESULTING
IN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A BRIEF BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP.  THIS RAIN WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.  SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR ZERO MAY
EVEN BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THIS RAIN WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.  FORTUNATELY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...SO
THE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN MA COAST BETWEEN 7
AND 9 AM.

ONCE THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXITS THE COAST BY MID MORNING...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.  CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE...BUT A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY ALLOW A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.  COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  WHILE THE
BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE.  BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OR JUST A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN IT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  IN
FACT...TOTAL TOTALS OVER 50 MAY EVEN RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY
SNOW SQUALL OR TWO WITH BEST SHOT NORTH OF ROUTE 2.  ACCUMS MAINLY A
COATING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN.  LOW PROBABILITY
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER IF A SQUALL OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...

A LEFT OVER RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.  NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER AND AT OR BELOW AVG TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SAT
* WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE NEXT WED OR THURSDAY

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE/TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH SETTING UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
PATTERN SHIFT WHICH COULD PUT THE REGION IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT AS WELL AS PHASING SO TIMING ON ANY SYSTEMS MAY SLOW
DOWN OR EVEN SPEED UP. WHILE WE ARE IN TRANSITION...RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
MAY LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE/FOG MOVING IN FROM THE OCEAN TO THE EAST
MASS COASTLINE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS ON THIS TRICKY TIME PERIOD. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE OFFERED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS FROM A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FLAT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TO A WRAPPED UP SFC LOW HUGGING THE COAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE LOW IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST...
BUT COULD THROW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BACK INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS IT EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AS WELL
AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW THIS STORM NEAR THE
BENCHMARK.

RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT PRECIP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE AS EXACT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
BY WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN A BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH 7
AM WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  BULK OF RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN MA COAST BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW MOST AREAS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON...BUT
THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY REMAIN IFR.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  MAY EVEN SEE A LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SQUALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 7 AM.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY.  THE RESULT WILL BE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT.  WE FELT IT WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO HOIST GALE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICIPATE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY CORRESPONDING IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KALY 170900
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST...AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY IS JUST FINISHING CROSSING
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA. THE PARENT LOW OF THIS
STORM IS LOCATED NEAR LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE POINT NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE STRENGTHENING SECONDARY LOW...AN AREA OF STEADY RAINFALL
HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED HEAVIER ECHOES...ARE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST THANKS TO
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA...AND THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. BECAUSE OF
THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN SHELTERED
ELEVATED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE BERKSHIRES...ARE STILL SITTING AT 32 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE ISOLATED LOCATIONS...WITH A
COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
THREAT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES VIA SOCIAL
MEDIA...AS COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER OR
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. STILL...THERE MAY BE SOME SLICK SPOTS IN
THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS...SO CAUTION IS URGED IF TRAVELING IN
THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
START TO RISE AFTER SUNRISE...AND EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING BY MID MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT...THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...ESP BY LATER THIS AFTN...AS 850 HPA TEMPS COOL TO -3
TO -6 DEGREES BY LATE TODAY.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION
LOOKS TO REACH THE LOW 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE CATSKILLS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THERE
THAN OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STEADY RAIN
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES IMPACTING KPSF UNTIL ABOUT
11Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN THEIR GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT KPOU AND IN THE EVENING AT KALB AND
KGFL WITH MVFR LINGERS AT KPSF THROUGH 06Z/THURSDAY.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TODAY WITH THE WINDS INCREASING IN
SPEED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 170900
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST...AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY IS JUST FINISHING CROSSING
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA. THE PARENT LOW OF THIS
STORM IS LOCATED NEAR LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE POINT NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE STRENGTHENING SECONDARY LOW...AN AREA OF STEADY RAINFALL
HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED HEAVIER ECHOES...ARE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST THANKS TO
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA...AND THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. BECAUSE OF
THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN SHELTERED
ELEVATED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE BERKSHIRES...ARE STILL SITTING AT 32 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE ISOLATED LOCATIONS...WITH A
COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
THREAT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES VIA SOCIAL
MEDIA...AS COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER OR
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. STILL...THERE MAY BE SOME SLICK SPOTS IN
THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS...SO CAUTION IS URGED IF TRAVELING IN
THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
START TO RISE AFTER SUNRISE...AND EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING BY MID MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT...THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...ESP BY LATER THIS AFTN...AS 850 HPA TEMPS COOL TO -3
TO -6 DEGREES BY LATE TODAY.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION
LOOKS TO REACH THE LOW 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE CATSKILLS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THERE
THAN OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STEADY RAIN
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES IMPACTING KPSF UNTIL ABOUT
11Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN THEIR GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT KPOU AND IN THE EVENING AT KALB AND
KGFL WITH MVFR LINGERS AT KPSF THROUGH 06Z/THURSDAY.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TODAY WITH THE WINDS INCREASING IN
SPEED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 170900
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL START TO DRY OUT TOMORROW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST...AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY IS JUST FINISHING CROSSING
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA. THE PARENT LOW OF THIS
STORM IS LOCATED NEAR LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE POINT NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE CLOSED OFF SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE STRENGTHENING SECONDARY LOW...AN AREA OF STEADY RAINFALL
HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED HEAVIER ECHOES...ARE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST THANKS TO
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA...AND THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. BECAUSE OF
THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN SHELTERED
ELEVATED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE BERKSHIRES...ARE STILL SITTING AT 32 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE ISOLATED LOCATIONS...WITH A
COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN
THREAT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES VIA SOCIAL
MEDIA...AS COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER OR
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. STILL...THERE MAY BE SOME SLICK SPOTS IN
THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS...SO CAUTION IS URGED IF TRAVELING IN
THESE LOCATIONS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
START TO RISE AFTER SUNRISE...AND EVERYWHERE LOOKS TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING BY MID MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR CHC TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT...THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...ESP BY LATER THIS AFTN...AS 850 HPA TEMPS COOL TO -3
TO -6 DEGREES BY LATE TODAY.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE VARIABLE...WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION
LOOKS TO REACH THE LOW 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME BREAKS OF SUN AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE CATSKILLS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THERE
THAN OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE CLOSED 500 HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM UPSTATE NY
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE
OVERHEAD...SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS...ESP IN AREAS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR WITH JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY. SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS TOMORROW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS TOMORROW WITH BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE OR
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT A BROAD
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE
A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OR GREENS. MORE BREAKS OF SUN
LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY THAN RECENT DAYS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY
WEATHER TO RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR WEATHER WITH RIDGING
OVER THE REGION...AFTER THAT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR. THE ACTIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN AMPLIFIED ONE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND NOW APPEARS IT SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OFFERING MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAY
SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF
SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. STEADY RAIN
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES IMPACTING KPSF UNTIL ABOUT
11Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN THEIR GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT KPOU AND IN THE EVENING AT KALB AND
KGFL WITH MVFR LINGERS AT KPSF THROUGH 06Z/THURSDAY.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TODAY WITH THE WINDS INCREASING IN
SPEED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 170714
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
215 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO A FEW SHOWERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK. STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

215 AM UPDATE...

A DEVELOPING SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AMPLE MOISTURE
ALLOWING BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS CT AND NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST.  THIS RAIN SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  SHOWALTER VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO MAY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  BULK OF
THE RAIN SHOULD RAPIDLY COME TO AN END BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM ACROSS
MOST OF THE EASTERN MA COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.  THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR AREAS OF FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THINK
RAIN WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS EARLY WED MORNING WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NE MA BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL OMEGA MOVES TO THE
N. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY WILL BE ACROSS W MA AS MID LEVEL LOW AND SHORTWAVE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND AROUND 50 DEGREES
NEAR THE COAST WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENG
WED NIGHT AS THE COLUMN COOLS FROM TOP DOWN. BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE MID
LEVEL CENTER SO BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS N NEW
ENG. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO SNE...ESPECIALLY N MA WHICH WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND QG FORCING. ANY ACCUM WILL BE LIGHT...AN INCH
OR LESS AND CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY
*  DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS FRIDAY AND SAT
*  POSSIBLE COASTAL SYSTEM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL RUNS APPEAR IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...BUT UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48
LEADS TO TIMING DIFFERENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. THE BIG
ISSUE APPEARS TO BE IN PHASING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO POSSIBLE
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL
H5 PATTERN APPEARS FLAT UNTIL THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WORKS
OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND STARTS DIGGING...WHILE THE NORTHERN
STREAM REMAINS RATHER FAST. THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS APPEAR TO KEEP THIS
SYSTEM RATHER WEAK AND WELL S OF THE REGION WHILE THE GGEM IS
STRONGER AND EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE. DID NOTE SOLUTION DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z EC OP RUN...WITH THE 12Z RUN MOVING THE
LATE WEEKEND LOW PRES FASTER THAN ITS 00Z COUNTERPART.

WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z OP CANADIAN GGEM BEING FAST OUTLIERS...LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE EC ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH A BIT OF THE GFS OP RUN
AS THIS SHOWED DECENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY VS. THE EC OP RUN...
ALONG WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY. THIS WAS NOT TOO FAR
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LATE
WEEKEND SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS H5 CUTOFF LOW ELONGATES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON THU...
SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE MARITIMES. WILL STILL SEE A BIT OF
LEFTOVER MOISTURE AS CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS MAINLY THROUGH MIDDAY.
SOME DRYING DOES FILTER INTO S COASTAL AREAS ON GUSTY W-NW WINDS.
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NW MA...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. CORE OF COLDEST AIR REMAINS W
OF THE REGION INTO THU NIGHT...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW EXITS TO THE MARITIMES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

HIGH PRES CENTER WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER TO NE-E OVER TIME THOUGH REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT. BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES TO THE SE
U.S. COAST AND BRING ITS LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. FOR
NOW...HAVE KEPT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS AND BROUGHT
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM S-N DURING THE DAY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST
GOING ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OP MODEL TIMING IS STILL SUSPECT WITH THE PHASING OF THE SPLIT
FLOW AS LOW PRES WORKS NE. ONE CONSISTENT THING HAS BEEN THE
FLATNESS OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH SECOND SHORT WAVE TRYING TO WORK
INTO THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER QUESTION IS HOW MUCH QPF TO EXPECT WITH
THIS FEATURE. BLENDING OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ENSEMBLES AND WPC
GUIDANCE GAVE SOME CONSISTENCY ON THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

KEPT ONLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW...BUT HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR SOMETIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT ONSET
AND EXIT ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT QUESTION IS PTYPE. LOOKS LIKE GENERAL EASTERLY
WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...WITH
SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND. QPF FORECASTED AMOUNTS
VARIED WIDELY. LEANED TOWARD LIGHTER AMOUNTS WITH THE WEAKNESS OF
THIS SYSTEM /FOR NOW/.

ANOTHER QUESTION IS THE WIND...WHICH IS ALL DEPENDENT UPON STORM
TRACK AND STRENGTH. WHILE THIS LOOKS LIKE AN OPEN WAVE VS. A
DEEPENING STORM /FOR NOW/...SHOULD NOT HAVE TOO MANY WIND ISSUES.
HOWEVER...IF STORM DOES TREND STRONGER HENCE HIGHER ONSHORE
WINDS...MAY NEED TO CONTEND WITH COASTAL CONCERNS AS ASTRO TIDES
ARE HIGH DURING SUN AND MON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL RUNS
AND ENSEMBLES CLOSELY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
TIMING ISSUES VERY MUCH IN PLACE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS
POINT...HAVE PUSHED PRECIP OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS E.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND FOG EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TO MID MORNING.  BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH 7 AM WITH EVEN
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  BULK
OF RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN MA COAST BY 9 AM.  OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON...BUT THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY
REMAIN IFR.  BULK OF THE RAIN OVER BY MID MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER DOMINATES TODAY BESIDES A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 7 AM.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM S-N DURING SAT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR TIMING. VFR TO
START...THEN AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM S-N. MAINLY RAIN
ACROSS E MA/MOST OF RI...WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO WEST
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. EXPECT GUSTS TO 30 KT WED NIGHT AS LOW PRES
INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE OVER WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. BUILDING SEAS WED
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT...8 TO 10 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON W-NW WINDS. LOW
PROB OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THU. WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THU NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 7-10 FT MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...SLOWLY SUBSIDING THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRI
AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SAT. SEAS LINGER AOA 5 FT
INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT THEN WILL SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS VEER TO NE-E SAT NIGHT...THEN
INCREASE DURING SUNDAY. MAY SEE GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT.
SEAS SLOWLY BUILD SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 170714
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
215 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO A FEW SHOWERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK. STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

215 AM UPDATE...

A DEVELOPING SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AMPLE MOISTURE
ALLOWING BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS CT AND NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST.  THIS RAIN SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  SHOWALTER VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO MAY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  BULK OF
THE RAIN SHOULD RAPIDLY COME TO AN END BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM ACROSS
MOST OF THE EASTERN MA COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.  THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR AREAS OF FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THINK
RAIN WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS EARLY WED MORNING WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NE MA BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL OMEGA MOVES TO THE
N. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY WILL BE ACROSS W MA AS MID LEVEL LOW AND SHORTWAVE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND AROUND 50 DEGREES
NEAR THE COAST WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENG
WED NIGHT AS THE COLUMN COOLS FROM TOP DOWN. BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE MID
LEVEL CENTER SO BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS N NEW
ENG. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO SNE...ESPECIALLY N MA WHICH WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND QG FORCING. ANY ACCUM WILL BE LIGHT...AN INCH
OR LESS AND CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY
*  DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS FRIDAY AND SAT
*  POSSIBLE COASTAL SYSTEM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL RUNS APPEAR IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...BUT UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48
LEADS TO TIMING DIFFERENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. THE BIG
ISSUE APPEARS TO BE IN PHASING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO POSSIBLE
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL
H5 PATTERN APPEARS FLAT UNTIL THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WORKS
OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND STARTS DIGGING...WHILE THE NORTHERN
STREAM REMAINS RATHER FAST. THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS APPEAR TO KEEP THIS
SYSTEM RATHER WEAK AND WELL S OF THE REGION WHILE THE GGEM IS
STRONGER AND EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE. DID NOTE SOLUTION DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z EC OP RUN...WITH THE 12Z RUN MOVING THE
LATE WEEKEND LOW PRES FASTER THAN ITS 00Z COUNTERPART.

WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z OP CANADIAN GGEM BEING FAST OUTLIERS...LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE EC ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH A BIT OF THE GFS OP RUN
AS THIS SHOWED DECENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY VS. THE EC OP RUN...
ALONG WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY. THIS WAS NOT TOO FAR
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LATE
WEEKEND SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS H5 CUTOFF LOW ELONGATES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON THU...
SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE MARITIMES. WILL STILL SEE A BIT OF
LEFTOVER MOISTURE AS CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS MAINLY THROUGH MIDDAY.
SOME DRYING DOES FILTER INTO S COASTAL AREAS ON GUSTY W-NW WINDS.
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NW MA...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. CORE OF COLDEST AIR REMAINS W
OF THE REGION INTO THU NIGHT...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW EXITS TO THE MARITIMES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

HIGH PRES CENTER WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER TO NE-E OVER TIME THOUGH REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT. BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES TO THE SE
U.S. COAST AND BRING ITS LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. FOR
NOW...HAVE KEPT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS AND BROUGHT
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM S-N DURING THE DAY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST
GOING ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OP MODEL TIMING IS STILL SUSPECT WITH THE PHASING OF THE SPLIT
FLOW AS LOW PRES WORKS NE. ONE CONSISTENT THING HAS BEEN THE
FLATNESS OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH SECOND SHORT WAVE TRYING TO WORK
INTO THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER QUESTION IS HOW MUCH QPF TO EXPECT WITH
THIS FEATURE. BLENDING OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ENSEMBLES AND WPC
GUIDANCE GAVE SOME CONSISTENCY ON THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

KEPT ONLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW...BUT HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR SOMETIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT ONSET
AND EXIT ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT QUESTION IS PTYPE. LOOKS LIKE GENERAL EASTERLY
WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...WITH
SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND. QPF FORECASTED AMOUNTS
VARIED WIDELY. LEANED TOWARD LIGHTER AMOUNTS WITH THE WEAKNESS OF
THIS SYSTEM /FOR NOW/.

ANOTHER QUESTION IS THE WIND...WHICH IS ALL DEPENDENT UPON STORM
TRACK AND STRENGTH. WHILE THIS LOOKS LIKE AN OPEN WAVE VS. A
DEEPENING STORM /FOR NOW/...SHOULD NOT HAVE TOO MANY WIND ISSUES.
HOWEVER...IF STORM DOES TREND STRONGER HENCE HIGHER ONSHORE
WINDS...MAY NEED TO CONTEND WITH COASTAL CONCERNS AS ASTRO TIDES
ARE HIGH DURING SUN AND MON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL RUNS
AND ENSEMBLES CLOSELY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
TIMING ISSUES VERY MUCH IN PLACE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS
POINT...HAVE PUSHED PRECIP OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS E.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND FOG EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TO MID MORNING.  BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH 7 AM WITH EVEN
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  BULK
OF RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN MA COAST BY 9 AM.  OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON...BUT THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY
REMAIN IFR.  BULK OF THE RAIN OVER BY MID MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER DOMINATES TODAY BESIDES A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 7 AM.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM S-N DURING SAT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR TIMING. VFR TO
START...THEN AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM S-N. MAINLY RAIN
ACROSS E MA/MOST OF RI...WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO WEST
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. EXPECT GUSTS TO 30 KT WED NIGHT AS LOW PRES
INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE OVER WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. BUILDING SEAS WED
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT...8 TO 10 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON W-NW WINDS. LOW
PROB OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THU. WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THU NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 7-10 FT MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...SLOWLY SUBSIDING THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRI
AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SAT. SEAS LINGER AOA 5 FT
INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT THEN WILL SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS VEER TO NE-E SAT NIGHT...THEN
INCREASE DURING SUNDAY. MAY SEE GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT.
SEAS SLOWLY BUILD SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 170714
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
215 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO A FEW SHOWERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK. STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

215 AM UPDATE...

A DEVELOPING SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AMPLE MOISTURE
ALLOWING BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS CT AND NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST.  THIS RAIN SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  SHOWALTER VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO MAY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  BULK OF
THE RAIN SHOULD RAPIDLY COME TO AN END BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM ACROSS
MOST OF THE EASTERN MA COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.  THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR AREAS OF FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THINK
RAIN WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS EARLY WED MORNING WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NE MA BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL OMEGA MOVES TO THE
N. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY WILL BE ACROSS W MA AS MID LEVEL LOW AND SHORTWAVE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND AROUND 50 DEGREES
NEAR THE COAST WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENG
WED NIGHT AS THE COLUMN COOLS FROM TOP DOWN. BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE MID
LEVEL CENTER SO BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS N NEW
ENG. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO SNE...ESPECIALLY N MA WHICH WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND QG FORCING. ANY ACCUM WILL BE LIGHT...AN INCH
OR LESS AND CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY
*  DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS FRIDAY AND SAT
*  POSSIBLE COASTAL SYSTEM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL RUNS APPEAR IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...BUT UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48
LEADS TO TIMING DIFFERENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. THE BIG
ISSUE APPEARS TO BE IN PHASING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO POSSIBLE
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL
H5 PATTERN APPEARS FLAT UNTIL THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WORKS
OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND STARTS DIGGING...WHILE THE NORTHERN
STREAM REMAINS RATHER FAST. THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS APPEAR TO KEEP THIS
SYSTEM RATHER WEAK AND WELL S OF THE REGION WHILE THE GGEM IS
STRONGER AND EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE. DID NOTE SOLUTION DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z EC OP RUN...WITH THE 12Z RUN MOVING THE
LATE WEEKEND LOW PRES FASTER THAN ITS 00Z COUNTERPART.

WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z OP CANADIAN GGEM BEING FAST OUTLIERS...LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE EC ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH A BIT OF THE GFS OP RUN
AS THIS SHOWED DECENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY VS. THE EC OP RUN...
ALONG WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY. THIS WAS NOT TOO FAR
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LATE
WEEKEND SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS H5 CUTOFF LOW ELONGATES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON THU...
SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE MARITIMES. WILL STILL SEE A BIT OF
LEFTOVER MOISTURE AS CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS MAINLY THROUGH MIDDAY.
SOME DRYING DOES FILTER INTO S COASTAL AREAS ON GUSTY W-NW WINDS.
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NW MA...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. CORE OF COLDEST AIR REMAINS W
OF THE REGION INTO THU NIGHT...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW EXITS TO THE MARITIMES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

HIGH PRES CENTER WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER TO NE-E OVER TIME THOUGH REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT. BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES TO THE SE
U.S. COAST AND BRING ITS LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. FOR
NOW...HAVE KEPT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS AND BROUGHT
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM S-N DURING THE DAY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST
GOING ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OP MODEL TIMING IS STILL SUSPECT WITH THE PHASING OF THE SPLIT
FLOW AS LOW PRES WORKS NE. ONE CONSISTENT THING HAS BEEN THE
FLATNESS OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH SECOND SHORT WAVE TRYING TO WORK
INTO THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER QUESTION IS HOW MUCH QPF TO EXPECT WITH
THIS FEATURE. BLENDING OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ENSEMBLES AND WPC
GUIDANCE GAVE SOME CONSISTENCY ON THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

KEPT ONLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW...BUT HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR SOMETIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT ONSET
AND EXIT ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT QUESTION IS PTYPE. LOOKS LIKE GENERAL EASTERLY
WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...WITH
SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND. QPF FORECASTED AMOUNTS
VARIED WIDELY. LEANED TOWARD LIGHTER AMOUNTS WITH THE WEAKNESS OF
THIS SYSTEM /FOR NOW/.

ANOTHER QUESTION IS THE WIND...WHICH IS ALL DEPENDENT UPON STORM
TRACK AND STRENGTH. WHILE THIS LOOKS LIKE AN OPEN WAVE VS. A
DEEPENING STORM /FOR NOW/...SHOULD NOT HAVE TOO MANY WIND ISSUES.
HOWEVER...IF STORM DOES TREND STRONGER HENCE HIGHER ONSHORE
WINDS...MAY NEED TO CONTEND WITH COASTAL CONCERNS AS ASTRO TIDES
ARE HIGH DURING SUN AND MON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL RUNS
AND ENSEMBLES CLOSELY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
TIMING ISSUES VERY MUCH IN PLACE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS
POINT...HAVE PUSHED PRECIP OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS E.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND FOG EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TO MID MORNING.  BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH 7 AM WITH EVEN
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  BULK
OF RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN MA COAST BY 9 AM.  OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON...BUT THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY
REMAIN IFR.  BULK OF THE RAIN OVER BY MID MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER DOMINATES TODAY BESIDES A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 7 AM.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM S-N DURING SAT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR TIMING. VFR TO
START...THEN AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM S-N. MAINLY RAIN
ACROSS E MA/MOST OF RI...WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO WEST
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. EXPECT GUSTS TO 30 KT WED NIGHT AS LOW PRES
INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE OVER WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. BUILDING SEAS WED
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT...8 TO 10 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON W-NW WINDS. LOW
PROB OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THU. WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THU NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 7-10 FT MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...SLOWLY SUBSIDING THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRI
AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SAT. SEAS LINGER AOA 5 FT
INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT THEN WILL SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS VEER TO NE-E SAT NIGHT...THEN
INCREASE DURING SUNDAY. MAY SEE GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT.
SEAS SLOWLY BUILD SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 170714
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
215 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO A FEW SHOWERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK. STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

215 AM UPDATE...

A DEVELOPING SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AMPLE MOISTURE
ALLOWING BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS CT AND NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST.  THIS RAIN SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  SHOWALTER VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO MAY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  BULK OF
THE RAIN SHOULD RAPIDLY COME TO AN END BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM ACROSS
MOST OF THE EASTERN MA COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.  THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR AREAS OF FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THINK
RAIN WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS EARLY WED MORNING WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NE MA BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL OMEGA MOVES TO THE
N. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY WILL BE ACROSS W MA AS MID LEVEL LOW AND SHORTWAVE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND AROUND 50 DEGREES
NEAR THE COAST WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENG
WED NIGHT AS THE COLUMN COOLS FROM TOP DOWN. BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE MID
LEVEL CENTER SO BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS N NEW
ENG. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO SNE...ESPECIALLY N MA WHICH WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND QG FORCING. ANY ACCUM WILL BE LIGHT...AN INCH
OR LESS AND CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY
*  DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS FRIDAY AND SAT
*  POSSIBLE COASTAL SYSTEM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL RUNS APPEAR IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...BUT UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48
LEADS TO TIMING DIFFERENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. THE BIG
ISSUE APPEARS TO BE IN PHASING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO POSSIBLE
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL
H5 PATTERN APPEARS FLAT UNTIL THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WORKS
OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND STARTS DIGGING...WHILE THE NORTHERN
STREAM REMAINS RATHER FAST. THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS APPEAR TO KEEP THIS
SYSTEM RATHER WEAK AND WELL S OF THE REGION WHILE THE GGEM IS
STRONGER AND EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE. DID NOTE SOLUTION DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z EC OP RUN...WITH THE 12Z RUN MOVING THE
LATE WEEKEND LOW PRES FASTER THAN ITS 00Z COUNTERPART.

WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z OP CANADIAN GGEM BEING FAST OUTLIERS...LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE EC ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH A BIT OF THE GFS OP RUN
AS THIS SHOWED DECENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY VS. THE EC OP RUN...
ALONG WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY. THIS WAS NOT TOO FAR
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LATE
WEEKEND SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS H5 CUTOFF LOW ELONGATES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON THU...
SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE MARITIMES. WILL STILL SEE A BIT OF
LEFTOVER MOISTURE AS CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS MAINLY THROUGH MIDDAY.
SOME DRYING DOES FILTER INTO S COASTAL AREAS ON GUSTY W-NW WINDS.
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NW MA...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. CORE OF COLDEST AIR REMAINS W
OF THE REGION INTO THU NIGHT...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW EXITS TO THE MARITIMES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

HIGH PRES CENTER WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER TO NE-E OVER TIME THOUGH REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT. BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES TO THE SE
U.S. COAST AND BRING ITS LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. FOR
NOW...HAVE KEPT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS AND BROUGHT
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM S-N DURING THE DAY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST
GOING ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OP MODEL TIMING IS STILL SUSPECT WITH THE PHASING OF THE SPLIT
FLOW AS LOW PRES WORKS NE. ONE CONSISTENT THING HAS BEEN THE
FLATNESS OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH SECOND SHORT WAVE TRYING TO WORK
INTO THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER QUESTION IS HOW MUCH QPF TO EXPECT WITH
THIS FEATURE. BLENDING OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ENSEMBLES AND WPC
GUIDANCE GAVE SOME CONSISTENCY ON THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

KEPT ONLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW...BUT HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR SOMETIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT ONSET
AND EXIT ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT QUESTION IS PTYPE. LOOKS LIKE GENERAL EASTERLY
WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...WITH
SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND. QPF FORECASTED AMOUNTS
VARIED WIDELY. LEANED TOWARD LIGHTER AMOUNTS WITH THE WEAKNESS OF
THIS SYSTEM /FOR NOW/.

ANOTHER QUESTION IS THE WIND...WHICH IS ALL DEPENDENT UPON STORM
TRACK AND STRENGTH. WHILE THIS LOOKS LIKE AN OPEN WAVE VS. A
DEEPENING STORM /FOR NOW/...SHOULD NOT HAVE TOO MANY WIND ISSUES.
HOWEVER...IF STORM DOES TREND STRONGER HENCE HIGHER ONSHORE
WINDS...MAY NEED TO CONTEND WITH COASTAL CONCERNS AS ASTRO TIDES
ARE HIGH DURING SUN AND MON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL RUNS
AND ENSEMBLES CLOSELY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
TIMING ISSUES VERY MUCH IN PLACE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS
POINT...HAVE PUSHED PRECIP OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS E.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND FOG EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TO MID MORNING.  BURST OF HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH 7 AM WITH EVEN
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  BULK
OF RAIN EXITS THE EASTERN MA COAST BY 9 AM.  OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON...BUT THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY
REMAIN IFR.  BULK OF THE RAIN OVER BY MID MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER DOMINATES TODAY BESIDES A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 7 AM.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM S-N DURING SAT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR TIMING. VFR TO
START...THEN AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM S-N. MAINLY RAIN
ACROSS E MA/MOST OF RI...WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO WEST
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. EXPECT GUSTS TO 30 KT WED NIGHT AS LOW PRES
INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE OVER WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. BUILDING SEAS WED
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT...8 TO 10 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON W-NW WINDS. LOW
PROB OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THU. WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THU NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 7-10 FT MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...SLOWLY SUBSIDING THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRI
AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SAT. SEAS LINGER AOA 5 FT
INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT THEN WILL SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS VEER TO NE-E SAT NIGHT...THEN
INCREASE DURING SUNDAY. MAY SEE GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT.
SEAS SLOWLY BUILD SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 170611
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
111 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO A FEW SHOWERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK. STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

110 AM UPDATE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING.  SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND
TOWARD DAYBREAK.  THIS A RESULT OF FAIRLY STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING
AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR MID DECEMBER.  BURST OF INSTABILITY
MAY RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  ACTIVITY SHOULD RAPIDLY COME TO AN END BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN MA COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.  THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR AREAS OF FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THINK
RAIN WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...
MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS EARLY WED MORNING WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NE MA BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL OMEGA MOVES TO THE
N. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY WILL BE ACROSS W MA AS MID LEVEL LOW AND SHORTWAVE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND AROUND 50 DEGREES
NEAR THE COAST WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENG
WED NIGHT AS THE COLUMN COOLS FROM TOP DOWN. BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE MID
LEVEL CENTER SO BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS N NEW
ENG. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO SNE...ESPECIALLY N MA WHICH WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND QG FORCING. ANY ACCUM WILL BE LIGHT...AN INCH
OR LESS AND CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY
*  DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS FRIDAY AND SAT
*  POSSIBLE COASTAL SYSTEM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL RUNS APPEAR IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...BUT UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48
LEADS TO TIMING DIFFERENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. THE BIG
ISSUE APPEARS TO BE IN PHASING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO POSSIBLE
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL
H5 PATTERN APPEARS FLAT UNTIL THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WORKS
OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND STARTS DIGGING...WHILE THE NORTHERN
STREAM REMAINS RATHER FAST. THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS APPEAR TO KEEP THIS
SYSTEM RATHER WEAK AND WELL S OF THE REGION WHILE THE GGEM IS
STRONGER AND EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE. DID NOTE SOLUTION DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z EC OP RUN...WITH THE 12Z RUN MOVING THE
LATE WEEKEND LOW PRES FASTER THAN ITS 00Z COUNTERPART.

WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z OP CANADIAN GGEM BEING FAST OUTLIERS...LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE EC ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH A BIT OF THE GFS OP RUN
AS THIS SHOWED DECENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY VS. THE EC OP RUN...
ALONG WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY. THIS WAS NOT TOO FAR
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LATE
WEEKEND SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS H5 CUTOFF LOW ELONGATES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON THU...
SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE MARITIMES. WILL STILL SEE A BIT OF
LEFTOVER MOISTURE AS CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS MAINLY THROUGH MIDDAY.
SOME DRYING DOES FILTER INTO S COASTAL AREAS ON GUSTY W-NW WINDS.
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NW MA...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. CORE OF COLDEST AIR REMAINS W
OF THE REGION INTO THU NIGHT...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW EXITS TO THE MARITIMES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

HIGH PRES CENTER WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER TO NE-E OVER TIME THOUGH REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT. BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES TO THE SE
U.S. COAST AND BRING ITS LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. FOR
NOW...HAVE KEPT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS AND BROUGHT
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM S-N DURING THE DAY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST
GOING ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OP MODEL TIMING IS STILL SUSPECT WITH THE PHASING OF THE SPLIT
FLOW AS LOW PRES WORKS NE. ONE CONSISTENT THING HAS BEEN THE
FLATNESS OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH SECOND SHORT WAVE TRYING TO WORK
INTO THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER QUESTION IS HOW MUCH QPF TO EXPECT WITH
THIS FEATURE. BLENDING OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ENSEMBLES AND WPC
GUIDANCE GAVE SOME CONSISTENCY ON THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

KEPT ONLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW...BUT HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR SOMETIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT ONSET
AND EXIT ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT QUESTION IS PTYPE. LOOKS LIKE GENERAL EASTERLY
WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...WITH
SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND. QPF FORECASTED AMOUNTS
VARIED WIDELY. LEANED TOWARD LIGHTER AMOUNTS WITH THE WEAKNESS OF
THIS SYSTEM /FOR NOW/.

ANOTHER QUESTION IS THE WIND...WHICH IS ALL DEPENDENT UPON STORM
TRACK AND STRENGTH. WHILE THIS LOOKS LIKE AN OPEN WAVE VS. A
DEEPENING STORM /FOR NOW/...SHOULD NOT HAVE TOO MANY WIND ISSUES.
HOWEVER...IF STORM DOES TREND STRONGER HENCE HIGHER ONSHORE
WINDS...MAY NEED TO CONTEND WITH COASTAL CONCERNS AS ASTRO TIDES
ARE HIGH DURING SUN AND MON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL RUNS
AND ENSEMBLES CLOSELY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
TIMING ISSUES VERY MUCH IN PLACE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS
POINT...HAVE PUSHED PRECIP OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS E.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND FOG EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TO MID MORNING.  NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY REMAIN IFR.  BULK OF THE RAIN
OVER BY MID MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER DOMINATES
TODAY BESIDES A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM S-N DURING SAT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR TIMING. VFR TO
START...THEN AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM S-N. MAINLY RAIN
ACROSS E MA/MOST OF RI...WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO WEST
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. EXPECT GUSTS TO 30 KT WED NIGHT AS LOW PRES
INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE OVER WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. BUILDING SEAS WED
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT...8 TO 10 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON W-NW WINDS. LOW
PROB OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THU. WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THU NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 7-10 FT MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...SLOWLY SUBSIDING THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRI
AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SAT. SEAS LINGER AOA 5 FT
INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT THEN WILL SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS VEER TO NE-E SAT NIGHT...THEN
INCREASE DURING SUNDAY. MAY SEE GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT.
SEAS SLOWLY BUILD SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 170611
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
111 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO A FEW SHOWERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK. STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

110 AM UPDATE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING.  SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND
TOWARD DAYBREAK.  THIS A RESULT OF FAIRLY STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING
AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR MID DECEMBER.  BURST OF INSTABILITY
MAY RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  ACTIVITY SHOULD RAPIDLY COME TO AN END BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN MA COAST...AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.  THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR AREAS OF FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THINK
RAIN WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...
MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS EARLY WED MORNING WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NE MA BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL OMEGA MOVES TO THE
N. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY WILL BE ACROSS W MA AS MID LEVEL LOW AND SHORTWAVE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND AROUND 50 DEGREES
NEAR THE COAST WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENG
WED NIGHT AS THE COLUMN COOLS FROM TOP DOWN. BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE MID
LEVEL CENTER SO BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS N NEW
ENG. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO SNE...ESPECIALLY N MA WHICH WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND QG FORCING. ANY ACCUM WILL BE LIGHT...AN INCH
OR LESS AND CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY
*  DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS FRIDAY AND SAT
*  POSSIBLE COASTAL SYSTEM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL RUNS APPEAR IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...BUT UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48
LEADS TO TIMING DIFFERENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. THE BIG
ISSUE APPEARS TO BE IN PHASING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO POSSIBLE
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL
H5 PATTERN APPEARS FLAT UNTIL THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WORKS
OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND STARTS DIGGING...WHILE THE NORTHERN
STREAM REMAINS RATHER FAST. THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS APPEAR TO KEEP THIS
SYSTEM RATHER WEAK AND WELL S OF THE REGION WHILE THE GGEM IS
STRONGER AND EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE. DID NOTE SOLUTION DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z EC OP RUN...WITH THE 12Z RUN MOVING THE
LATE WEEKEND LOW PRES FASTER THAN ITS 00Z COUNTERPART.

WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z OP CANADIAN GGEM BEING FAST OUTLIERS...LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE EC ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH A BIT OF THE GFS OP RUN
AS THIS SHOWED DECENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY VS. THE EC OP RUN...
ALONG WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY. THIS WAS NOT TOO FAR
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LATE
WEEKEND SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS H5 CUTOFF LOW ELONGATES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON THU...
SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE MARITIMES. WILL STILL SEE A BIT OF
LEFTOVER MOISTURE AS CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS MAINLY THROUGH MIDDAY.
SOME DRYING DOES FILTER INTO S COASTAL AREAS ON GUSTY W-NW WINDS.
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NW MA...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. CORE OF COLDEST AIR REMAINS W
OF THE REGION INTO THU NIGHT...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW EXITS TO THE MARITIMES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

HIGH PRES CENTER WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER TO NE-E OVER TIME THOUGH REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT. BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES TO THE SE
U.S. COAST AND BRING ITS LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. FOR
NOW...HAVE KEPT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS AND BROUGHT
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM S-N DURING THE DAY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST
GOING ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OP MODEL TIMING IS STILL SUSPECT WITH THE PHASING OF THE SPLIT
FLOW AS LOW PRES WORKS NE. ONE CONSISTENT THING HAS BEEN THE
FLATNESS OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH SECOND SHORT WAVE TRYING TO WORK
INTO THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER QUESTION IS HOW MUCH QPF TO EXPECT WITH
THIS FEATURE. BLENDING OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ENSEMBLES AND WPC
GUIDANCE GAVE SOME CONSISTENCY ON THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

KEPT ONLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW...BUT HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR SOMETIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT ONSET
AND EXIT ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT QUESTION IS PTYPE. LOOKS LIKE GENERAL EASTERLY
WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...WITH
SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND. QPF FORECASTED AMOUNTS
VARIED WIDELY. LEANED TOWARD LIGHTER AMOUNTS WITH THE WEAKNESS OF
THIS SYSTEM /FOR NOW/.

ANOTHER QUESTION IS THE WIND...WHICH IS ALL DEPENDENT UPON STORM
TRACK AND STRENGTH. WHILE THIS LOOKS LIKE AN OPEN WAVE VS. A
DEEPENING STORM /FOR NOW/...SHOULD NOT HAVE TOO MANY WIND ISSUES.
HOWEVER...IF STORM DOES TREND STRONGER HENCE HIGHER ONSHORE
WINDS...MAY NEED TO CONTEND WITH COASTAL CONCERNS AS ASTRO TIDES
ARE HIGH DURING SUN AND MON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL RUNS
AND ENSEMBLES CLOSELY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
TIMING ISSUES VERY MUCH IN PLACE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS
POINT...HAVE PUSHED PRECIP OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS E.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND FOG EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TO MID MORNING.  NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CAPE/ISLANDS MAY REMAIN IFR.  BULK OF THE RAIN
OVER BY MID MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER DOMINATES
TODAY BESIDES A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE MA TURNPIKE.  THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THURSDAY...MARGINAL VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED.  A LEFT OVER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING...BUT DRY WEATHER
DOMINATES.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM S-N DURING SAT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR TIMING. VFR TO
START...THEN AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM S-N. MAINLY RAIN
ACROSS E MA/MOST OF RI...WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO WEST
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. EXPECT GUSTS TO 30 KT WED NIGHT AS LOW PRES
INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE OVER WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. BUILDING SEAS WED
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT...8 TO 10 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON W-NW WINDS. LOW
PROB OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THU. WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THU NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 7-10 FT MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...SLOWLY SUBSIDING THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRI
AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SAT. SEAS LINGER AOA 5 FT
INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT THEN WILL SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS VEER TO NE-E SAT NIGHT...THEN
INCREASE DURING SUNDAY. MAY SEE GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT.
SEAS SLOWLY BUILD SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KALY 170551
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1251 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH
SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES. SOME LINGERING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
THE REGION FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS 1251 AM EST...AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE PARENT LOW OF THIS
STORM IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE POINT NEAR NORTH
JERSEY/NYC/LONG ISLAND.

STEADY RAINFALL AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS ENDED OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EVEN THERE...STEADY RAINFALL
LOOKS TO BE EXITING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. WE WILL KEEP CHC TO LIKELY POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS UPSTREAMS RADAR ARE STILL
SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR
AREA. THE 02Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER EASTERN AREAS
AS WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE STRENGTHENING SFC
LOW NEAR THE COAST WILL HELP TO REDEVELOP RAINFALL FOR AREAS FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER ON EASTWARD.

IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN SHELTERED
ELEVATED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE BERKSHIRES...ARE STILL SITTING AT 32 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE ISOLATED LOCATIONS...WITH A
COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS
ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN THREAT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND
UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...AS COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER OR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. STILL...THERE MAY BE
SOME SLICK SPOTS IN THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS...SO CAUTION IS
URGED IF TRAVELING IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT LOW TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY CLOSE
TO THEIR CURRENT READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE WILL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR
NORTH WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO WORK ON THROUGH. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY BUT PERSIST...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...FIRST ALOFT...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE REMAINING VALLEY
AREAS (INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION)...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS OF RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. THERE COULD PERHAPS BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING
OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER (MID 20S HIGHER TERRAIN)...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL STICK AND WE
DO EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 1-4 INCHES (MAINLY
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT OTHER HILLTOPS COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A DUSTING).

THURSDAY WILL BE A BRISK DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE  TO THE LEE OF
THE CATSKILLS...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS STAY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
THANKS TO LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. VALLEY AREAS SHOULD
SEE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR
SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST
10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...CONTINUED BRISK.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS
ADDING ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. VALLEYS WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT TIMES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOUT RIGHT ON THE MARK FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER TO START AND END THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING
MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...HAVE ONLY FORECAST CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS OVER HOWEVER LOW CEILINGS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIR OVER
THE REMAINING SNOWPACK. BY MID TO LATE MORNING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT KPOU AND IN THE EVENING AT
KALB AND KGFL WITH MVFR LINGERS AT KPSF THROUGH 06Z/THURSDAY.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS EXPECTED AT
KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 170551
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1251 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH
SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES. SOME LINGERING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
THE REGION FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS 1251 AM EST...AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE PARENT LOW OF THIS
STORM IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE POINT NEAR NORTH
JERSEY/NYC/LONG ISLAND.

STEADY RAINFALL AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS ENDED OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EVEN THERE...STEADY RAINFALL
LOOKS TO BE EXITING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. WE WILL KEEP CHC TO LIKELY POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS UPSTREAMS RADAR ARE STILL
SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR
AREA. THE 02Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER EASTERN AREAS
AS WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE STRENGTHENING SFC
LOW NEAR THE COAST WILL HELP TO REDEVELOP RAINFALL FOR AREAS FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER ON EASTWARD.

IN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN SHELTERED
ELEVATED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE BERKSHIRES...ARE STILL SITTING AT 32 DEGREES. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE ISOLATED LOCATIONS...WITH A
COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS
ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN THREAT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND
UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...AS COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A
WINTER WEATHER OR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. STILL...THERE MAY BE
SOME SLICK SPOTS IN THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS...SO CAUTION IS
URGED IF TRAVELING IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS OVERNIGHT LOW TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY CLOSE
TO THEIR CURRENT READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE SURFACE WILL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. HOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL STILL BE JUST TO OUR
NORTH WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO WORK ON THROUGH. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY BUT PERSIST...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...FIRST ALOFT...EVENTUALLY TRANSLATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG TOUGH WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE REMAINING VALLEY
AREAS (INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION)...MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS OF RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. THERE COULD PERHAPS BE A LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING
OFFSHORE BUT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO FREEZING OR
LOWER (MID 20S HIGHER TERRAIN)...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL STICK AND WE
DO EXPECT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 1-4 INCHES (MAINLY
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT OTHER HILLTOPS COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A DUSTING).

THURSDAY WILL BE A BRISK DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE  TO THE LEE OF
THE CATSKILLS...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS STAY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY
THANKS TO LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. VALLEY AREAS SHOULD
SEE NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR
SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST
10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...CONTINUED BRISK.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS
ADDING ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN SPOTS. VALLEYS WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT TIMES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOUT RIGHT ON THE MARK FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER TO START AND END THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE NOT OFFERING
MODEL-TO-MODEL OR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER TO ENSURE FORECAST CONSISTENCY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...HAVE ONLY FORECAST CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS OVER HOWEVER LOW CEILINGS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIR OVER
THE REMAINING SNOWPACK. BY MID TO LATE MORNING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT KPOU AND IN THE EVENING AT
KALB AND KGFL WITH MVFR LINGERS AT KPSF THROUGH 06Z/THURSDAY.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS EXPECTED AT
KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AFTER STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ONLY VERY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...WITH
MOST RIVER FLOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.

SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THESE VERY BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND WON/T HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COLDER
FOR THURS/FRI...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT THAT
OCCURS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 170332
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1032 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO A FEW SHOWERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK. STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD WESTERN/CENTRAL MA AND NORTHERN CT AS OF LATE
EVENING.  THE RAIN WAS RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST AND SHOULD WORK INTO
EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM.  IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG WERE LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA AT LATE EVENING.  WHILE SOME VISIBILITIES MAY IMPROVE
FOR A TIME WITH THE RAIN...DID ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST SHOULD RESULT
IN AN AREA OF STRONGER LIFT/FORCING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD MORNING. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE STEADY RAIN TO
SHIFT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK.  DECENT INSTABILITY
BURST WITH SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. EVEN A LOW RISK OF THUNDER...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INSERT INTO THE FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TO MAINLY THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.  EVEN IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...PTYPE ALL RAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENG
LATE TONIGHT. PRIMARY LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS GRT LAKES AS SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE. THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN FOR ALL SNE.

GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING AS AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES THROUGH...SO WE HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS. DECENT INSTABILITY
BURST EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS REFLECTED BY RAPID INCREASE IN
KI/TT AND SWI DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO. THIS SUPPORTS A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLD TSTM LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE NEW ENG. RAINFALL OF 0.25 TO 0.5"
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...
MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS EARLY WED MORNING WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NE MA BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL OMEGA MOVES TO THE
N. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY WILL BE ACROSS W MA AS MID LEVEL LOW AND SHORTWAVE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND AROUND 50 DEGREES
NEAR THE COAST WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENG
WED NIGHT AS THE COLUMN COOLS FROM TOP DOWN. BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE MID
LEVEL CENTER SO BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS N NEW
ENG. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO SNE...ESPECIALLY N MA WHICH WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND QG FORCING. ANY ACCUM WILL BE LIGHT...AN INCH
OR LESS AND CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY
*  DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS FRIDAY AND SAT
*  POSSIBLE COASTAL SYSTEM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL RUNS APPEAR IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...BUT UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48
LEADS TO TIMING DIFFERENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. THE BIG
ISSUE APPEARS TO BE IN PHASING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO POSSIBLE
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL
H5 PATTERN APPEARS FLAT UNTIL THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WORKS
OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND STARTS DIGGING...WHILE THE NORTHERN
STREAM REMAINS RATHER FAST. THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS APPEAR TO KEEP THIS
SYSTEM RATHER WEAK AND WELL S OF THE REGION WHILE THE GGEM IS
STRONGER AND EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE. DID NOTE SOLUTION DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z EC OP RUN...WITH THE 12Z RUN MOVING THE
LATE WEEKEND LOW PRES FASTER THAN ITS 00Z COUNTERPART.

WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z OP CANADIAN GGEM BEING FAST OUTLIERS...LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE EC ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH A BIT OF THE GFS OP RUN
AS THIS SHOWED DECENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY VS. THE EC OP RUN...
ALONG WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY. THIS WAS NOT TOO FAR
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LATE
WEEKEND SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS H5 CUTOFF LOW ELONGATES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON THU...
SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE MARITIMES. WILL STILL SEE A BIT OF
LEFTOVER MOISTURE AS CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS MAINLY THROUGH MIDDAY.
SOME DRYING DOES FILTER INTO S COASTAL AREAS ON GUSTY W-NW WINDS.
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NW MA...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. CORE OF COLDEST AIR REMAINS W
OF THE REGION INTO THU NIGHT...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW EXITS TO THE MARITIMES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

HIGH PRES CENTER WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER TO NE-E OVER TIME THOUGH REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT. BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES TO THE SE
U.S. COAST AND BRING ITS LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. FOR
NOW...HAVE KEPT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS AND BROUGHT
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM S-N DURING THE DAY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST
GOING ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OP MODEL TIMING IS STILL SUSPECT WITH THE PHASING OF THE SPLIT
FLOW AS LOW PRES WORKS NE. ONE CONSISTENT THING HAS BEEN THE
FLATNESS OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH SECOND SHORT WAVE TRYING TO WORK
INTO THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER QUESTION IS HOW MUCH QPF TO EXPECT WITH
THIS FEATURE. BLENDING OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ENSEMBLES AND WPC
GUIDANCE GAVE SOME CONSISTENCY ON THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

KEPT ONLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW...BUT HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR SOMETIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT ONSET
AND EXIT ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT QUESTION IS PTYPE. LOOKS LIKE GENERAL EASTERLY
WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...WITH
SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND. QPF FORECASTED AMOUNTS
VARIED WIDELY. LEANED TOWARD LIGHTER AMOUNTS WITH THE WEAKNESS OF
THIS SYSTEM /FOR NOW/.

ANOTHER QUESTION IS THE WIND...WHICH IS ALL DEPENDENT UPON STORM
TRACK AND STRENGTH. WHILE THIS LOOKS LIKE AN OPEN WAVE VS. A
DEEPENING STORM /FOR NOW/...SHOULD NOT HAVE TOO MANY WIND ISSUES.
HOWEVER...IF STORM DOES TREND STRONGER HENCE HIGHER ONSHORE
WINDS...MAY NEED TO CONTEND WITH COASTAL CONCERNS AS ASTRO TIDES
ARE HIGH DURING SUN AND MON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL RUNS
AND ENSEMBLES CLOSELY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
TIMING ISSUES VERY MUCH IN PLACE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS
POINT...HAVE PUSHED PRECIP OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS E.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1030 PM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN/LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG.  FOG WILL BE MOST DENSE FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
MA.

WEDNESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SW TO NE...AND POSSIBLY VFR NEAR THE CT
VALLEY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NE HALF OF SNE EARLY IN
THE MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS. SCT SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.  LOW
PROBABILITY THAT VISIBILITY DROPS TO BELOW ONE HALF OF A MILE FOR A
TIME OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS N CENTRAL/NW MA THROUGH MIDDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WIND
GUSTING TO 25-30 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM S-N DURING SAT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR TIMING. VFR TO
START...THEN AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM S-N. MAINLY RAIN
ACROSS E MA/MOST OF RI...WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO WEST
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. EXPECT GUSTS TO 30 KT WED NIGHT AS LOW PRES
INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE OVER WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. BUILDING SEAS WED
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT...8 TO 10 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON W-NW WINDS. LOW
PROB OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THU. WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THU NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 7-10 FT MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...SLOWLY SUBSIDING THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRI
AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SAT. SEAS LINGER AOA 5 FT
INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT THEN WILL SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS VEER TO NE-E SAT NIGHT...THEN
INCREASE DURING SUNDAY. MAY SEE GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT.
SEAS SLOWLY BUILD SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 170332
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1032 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO A FEW SHOWERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK. STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD WESTERN/CENTRAL MA AND NORTHERN CT AS OF LATE
EVENING.  THE RAIN WAS RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST AND SHOULD WORK INTO
EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM.  IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG WERE LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA AT LATE EVENING.  WHILE SOME VISIBILITIES MAY IMPROVE
FOR A TIME WITH THE RAIN...DID ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST SHOULD RESULT
IN AN AREA OF STRONGER LIFT/FORCING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD MORNING. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE STEADY RAIN TO
SHIFT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK.  DECENT INSTABILITY
BURST WITH SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. EVEN A LOW RISK OF THUNDER...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INSERT INTO THE FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TO MAINLY THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.  EVEN IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...PTYPE ALL RAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENG
LATE TONIGHT. PRIMARY LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS GRT LAKES AS SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE. THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN FOR ALL SNE.

GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING AS AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES THROUGH...SO WE HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS. DECENT INSTABILITY
BURST EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS REFLECTED BY RAPID INCREASE IN
KI/TT AND SWI DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO. THIS SUPPORTS A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLD TSTM LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE NEW ENG. RAINFALL OF 0.25 TO 0.5"
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...
MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS EARLY WED MORNING WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NE MA BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL OMEGA MOVES TO THE
N. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY WILL BE ACROSS W MA AS MID LEVEL LOW AND SHORTWAVE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND AROUND 50 DEGREES
NEAR THE COAST WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENG
WED NIGHT AS THE COLUMN COOLS FROM TOP DOWN. BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE MID
LEVEL CENTER SO BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS N NEW
ENG. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO SNE...ESPECIALLY N MA WHICH WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND QG FORCING. ANY ACCUM WILL BE LIGHT...AN INCH
OR LESS AND CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY
*  DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS FRIDAY AND SAT
*  POSSIBLE COASTAL SYSTEM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL RUNS APPEAR IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...BUT UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48
LEADS TO TIMING DIFFERENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. THE BIG
ISSUE APPEARS TO BE IN PHASING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO POSSIBLE
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL
H5 PATTERN APPEARS FLAT UNTIL THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WORKS
OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND STARTS DIGGING...WHILE THE NORTHERN
STREAM REMAINS RATHER FAST. THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS APPEAR TO KEEP THIS
SYSTEM RATHER WEAK AND WELL S OF THE REGION WHILE THE GGEM IS
STRONGER AND EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE. DID NOTE SOLUTION DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z EC OP RUN...WITH THE 12Z RUN MOVING THE
LATE WEEKEND LOW PRES FASTER THAN ITS 00Z COUNTERPART.

WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z OP CANADIAN GGEM BEING FAST OUTLIERS...LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE EC ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH A BIT OF THE GFS OP RUN
AS THIS SHOWED DECENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY VS. THE EC OP RUN...
ALONG WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY. THIS WAS NOT TOO FAR
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LATE
WEEKEND SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS H5 CUTOFF LOW ELONGATES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON THU...
SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE MARITIMES. WILL STILL SEE A BIT OF
LEFTOVER MOISTURE AS CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS MAINLY THROUGH MIDDAY.
SOME DRYING DOES FILTER INTO S COASTAL AREAS ON GUSTY W-NW WINDS.
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NW MA...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. CORE OF COLDEST AIR REMAINS W
OF THE REGION INTO THU NIGHT...SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW EXITS TO THE MARITIMES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

HIGH PRES CENTER WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER TO NE-E OVER TIME THOUGH REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT. BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE
LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES TO THE SE
U.S. COAST AND BRING ITS LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. FOR
NOW...HAVE KEPT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS AND BROUGHT
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM S-N DURING THE DAY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST
GOING ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OP MODEL TIMING IS STILL SUSPECT WITH THE PHASING OF THE SPLIT
FLOW AS LOW PRES WORKS NE. ONE CONSISTENT THING HAS BEEN THE
FLATNESS OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH SECOND SHORT WAVE TRYING TO WORK
INTO THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER QUESTION IS HOW MUCH QPF TO EXPECT WITH
THIS FEATURE. BLENDING OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ENSEMBLES AND WPC
GUIDANCE GAVE SOME CONSISTENCY ON THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

KEPT ONLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW...BUT HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR SOMETIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT ONSET
AND EXIT ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE BEST SHOT OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT QUESTION IS PTYPE. LOOKS LIKE GENERAL EASTERLY
WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...WITH
SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND. QPF FORECASTED AMOUNTS
VARIED WIDELY. LEANED TOWARD LIGHTER AMOUNTS WITH THE WEAKNESS OF
THIS SYSTEM /FOR NOW/.

ANOTHER QUESTION IS THE WIND...WHICH IS ALL DEPENDENT UPON STORM
TRACK AND STRENGTH. WHILE THIS LOOKS LIKE AN OPEN WAVE VS. A
DEEPENING STORM /FOR NOW/...SHOULD NOT HAVE TOO MANY WIND ISSUES.
HOWEVER...IF STORM DOES TREND STRONGER HENCE HIGHER ONSHORE
WINDS...MAY NEED TO CONTEND WITH COASTAL CONCERNS AS ASTRO TIDES
ARE HIGH DURING SUN AND MON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL RUNS
AND ENSEMBLES CLOSELY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
TIMING ISSUES VERY MUCH IN PLACE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS
POINT...HAVE PUSHED PRECIP OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS E.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1030 PM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN/LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG.  FOG WILL BE MOST DENSE FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
MA.

WEDNESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SW TO NE...AND POSSIBLY VFR NEAR THE CT
VALLEY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NE HALF OF SNE EARLY IN
THE MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS. SCT SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.  LOW
PROBABILITY THAT VISIBILITY DROPS TO BELOW ONE HALF OF A MILE FOR A
TIME OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS N CENTRAL/NW MA THROUGH MIDDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WIND
GUSTING TO 25-30 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM S-N DURING SAT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR TIMING. VFR TO
START...THEN AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM S-N. MAINLY RAIN
ACROSS E MA/MOST OF RI...WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO WEST
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS. EXPECT GUSTS TO 30 KT WED NIGHT AS LOW PRES
INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE OVER WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD. BUILDING SEAS WED
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT...8 TO 10 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON W-NW WINDS. LOW
PROB OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THU. WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THU NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 7-10 FT MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...SLOWLY SUBSIDING THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...NW WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT DURING FRI
AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SAT. SEAS LINGER AOA 5 FT
INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT THEN WILL SUBSIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS VEER TO NE-E SAT NIGHT...THEN
INCREASE DURING SUNDAY. MAY SEE GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT.
SEAS SLOWLY BUILD SUN NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 170332
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1032 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO A FEW SHOWERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK. STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD WESTERN/CENTRAL MA AND NORTHERN CT AS OF LATE
EVENING.  THE RAIN WAS RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST AND SHOULD WORK INTO
EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM.  IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF FOG WERE LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA AT LATE EVENING.  WHILE SOME VISIBILITIES MAY IMPROVE
FOR A TIME WITH THE RAIN...DID ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST SHOULD RESULT
IN AN AREA OF STRONGER LIFT/FORCING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD MORNING. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE STEADY RAIN TO
SHIFT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK.  DECENT INSTABILITY
BURST WITH SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. EVEN A LOW RISK OF THUNDER...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INSERT INTO THE FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TO MAINLY THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.  EVEN IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...PTYPE ALL RAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENG
LATE TONIGHT. PRIMARY LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS GRT LAKES AS SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE. THERMAL PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN FOR ALL SNE.

GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING AS AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES THROUGH...SO WE HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS. DECENT INSTABILITY
BURST EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS REFLECTED BY RAPID INCREASE IN
KI/TT AND SWI DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO. THIS SUPPORTS A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLD TSTM LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE NEW ENG. RAINFALL OF 0.25 TO 0.5"
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...
MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS EARLY WED MORNING WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NE MA BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL OMEGA MOVES TO THE
N. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY OTHER THAN A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS LATER IN THE
DAY WILL BE ACROSS W MA AS MID LEVEL LOW AND SHORTWAVE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND AROUND 50 DEGREES
NEAR THE COAST WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENG
WED NIGHT AS THE COLUMN COOLS FROM TOP DOWN. BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE MID
LEVEL CENTER SO BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS N NEW
ENG. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO SNE...ESPECIALLY N MA WHICH WILL BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND QG FORCING. ANY ACCUM WILL BE LIGHT...AN INCH
OR LESS AND CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT