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000
FXUS61 KBOX 030553
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AND
MUCH LESS HUMID AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MORE AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY
AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
A VERY SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE SKIRTING THE NRN EXTENT
OF MA AND SE NH THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...BULK OF THE REMNANT
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. EXPECT CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AS COLD
FRONT ALLOWS DRY AIR TO FILTER IN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND 02-04Z AND
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 10-12Z. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION PER THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMICS
OUT AHEAD OF IT IN WESTERN CWA`S. BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE
REGION A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LOSS SO WE MAY SEE DYING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER SOME MODELS...ESP THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE LINGERING BY THE TIME THE FRONT APPROACHES.
ON TOP OF THE POSSIBLE INSTABILITY...850MB LLJ DOES INCREASE AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AS WELL. IN
FACT...GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 25KTS...BUT IT
IS THE 0-1 KM SHEAR THAT INCREASES TO 30-40KTS. LASTLY K-INDEX PLUME
MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME GIVING THE REGION THE
MOISTURE IT NEEDS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.

THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT ALL THE INGREDIENT MENTIONED ABOVE MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS A SEVERE STORM AS THE FRONT MOVES THE
REGION. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS IS AN OVERNIGHT EVENT WHICH IS NOT IN
THE NORTHEAST FAVOR PER CLIMO...BUT CONDITIONS DO SHOW THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LASTLY...EVEN THOUGH THE REGION DID SEE
SOME ACTION TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE DID BOUNCE BACK VERY WELL AFTER
THE STORMS PASSED.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE K-INDEX VALUE AS WELL AS THE
INSTABILITY DO DROP AFTER 06Z SO THAT THE CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION
TO OCCUR DISSIPATES SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT WILL FRAGMENT AND BECOME VERY ISO IN
NATURE BY THIS TIME FRAME AND MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EAST
COAST. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE BELIEVE THAT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL REACH SO CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NOW.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM RADIATING OUT OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. 850 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SET UP OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
850 MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -14C AND WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
HUMIDITY AS DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN DROPPING DEWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY REACHING ABOUT 20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...ANTICIPATE RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO LOW 50S. A FEW SITES COULD EVEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CT VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS
* MORE HUMID SAT WITH SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
* TREND TOWARD COOLER/LESS HUMID WEATHER SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

DRY/QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THU WITH HIGH PRES AND A DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS OF 80-
85...COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES...HOWEVER DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S WILL PROVIDE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

BY FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRIEFLY BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S COMBINED WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW PTS CLIMB FROM
THE 50S INTO THE 60S. THUS A WARM AND HUMID DAY FRIDAY.

ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z GEFS AND NEW 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST
JET DYNAMICS/BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI FROM A MODEL BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE.
HENCE MOST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY RI AND EASTERN MA MAY REMAIN DRY
FRI.

SATURDAY...

ALL DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC /12Z GEFS AND 12Z ECENS/ GUIDANCE
SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION SAT. TEMPS ARE
PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 80S SAT ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70 SO THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THE 12Z GEFS
SUGGEST A 30-40% PROBABILITY OF UP TO 1200 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS
COMBINED WITH MODEST JET DYNAMICS/SHEAR AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTING A RISK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS
GIVEN THE PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE.

SUNDAY...

LIKELY OUR TRANSITION DAY AS BOTH ENSEMBLES /12Z ECENS AND GEFS/
SUGGEST FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST SUN MORNING. THUS
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH COAST WITH A TREND
TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FROM NW TO SE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

SHOULD BE DRIER...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR OFFSHORE THIS
BOUNDARY GETS. THUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY LURK
JUST OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTSIDE OF SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS
MAINLY EXTREME NRN MA AND S NH AND SOME BRIEF FOG IN E MA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY ON THU. THIS IS
THANKS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WITH THIS FRONT...WINDS SHIFT FROM S-SW TO W-NW AND MAY
BRIEFLY GUST TO 20 KT. THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE AFTER 12Z.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY...ANY MVFR ALONG SOUTH COAST SHOULD TREND TOWARD VFR WITH
POTENTIAL SHOWERS MOVING OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
SW FLOW BEGINS TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY MIDNIGHT LASTING TIL ABOUT 3AM. SEAS
MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTH OCEAN WATERS BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING A SCA. OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY
LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDS LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE
BOATING WEATHER. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SW WIND WAVES DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS
INCREASING AFTER SUNSET.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

SUNDAY...FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE SLOWLY BUT SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BOSTON LOGAN AIRPORT REACHED 93 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE IN BOSTON SO FAR THIS SUMMER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 030553
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AND
MUCH LESS HUMID AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MORE AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY
AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
A VERY SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE SKIRTING THE NRN EXTENT
OF MA AND SE NH THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...BULK OF THE REMNANT
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. EXPECT CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AS COLD
FRONT ALLOWS DRY AIR TO FILTER IN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND 02-04Z AND
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 10-12Z. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION PER THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMICS
OUT AHEAD OF IT IN WESTERN CWA`S. BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE
REGION A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LOSS SO WE MAY SEE DYING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER SOME MODELS...ESP THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE LINGERING BY THE TIME THE FRONT APPROACHES.
ON TOP OF THE POSSIBLE INSTABILITY...850MB LLJ DOES INCREASE AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AS WELL. IN
FACT...GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 25KTS...BUT IT
IS THE 0-1 KM SHEAR THAT INCREASES TO 30-40KTS. LASTLY K-INDEX PLUME
MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME GIVING THE REGION THE
MOISTURE IT NEEDS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.

THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT ALL THE INGREDIENT MENTIONED ABOVE MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS A SEVERE STORM AS THE FRONT MOVES THE
REGION. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS IS AN OVERNIGHT EVENT WHICH IS NOT IN
THE NORTHEAST FAVOR PER CLIMO...BUT CONDITIONS DO SHOW THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LASTLY...EVEN THOUGH THE REGION DID SEE
SOME ACTION TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE DID BOUNCE BACK VERY WELL AFTER
THE STORMS PASSED.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE K-INDEX VALUE AS WELL AS THE
INSTABILITY DO DROP AFTER 06Z SO THAT THE CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION
TO OCCUR DISSIPATES SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT WILL FRAGMENT AND BECOME VERY ISO IN
NATURE BY THIS TIME FRAME AND MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EAST
COAST. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE BELIEVE THAT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL REACH SO CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NOW.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM RADIATING OUT OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. 850 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SET UP OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
850 MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -14C AND WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
HUMIDITY AS DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN DROPPING DEWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY REACHING ABOUT 20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...ANTICIPATE RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO LOW 50S. A FEW SITES COULD EVEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CT VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS
* MORE HUMID SAT WITH SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
* TREND TOWARD COOLER/LESS HUMID WEATHER SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

DRY/QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THU WITH HIGH PRES AND A DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS OF 80-
85...COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES...HOWEVER DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S WILL PROVIDE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

BY FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRIEFLY BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S COMBINED WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW PTS CLIMB FROM
THE 50S INTO THE 60S. THUS A WARM AND HUMID DAY FRIDAY.

ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z GEFS AND NEW 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST
JET DYNAMICS/BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI FROM A MODEL BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE.
HENCE MOST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY RI AND EASTERN MA MAY REMAIN DRY
FRI.

SATURDAY...

ALL DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC /12Z GEFS AND 12Z ECENS/ GUIDANCE
SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION SAT. TEMPS ARE
PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 80S SAT ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70 SO THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THE 12Z GEFS
SUGGEST A 30-40% PROBABILITY OF UP TO 1200 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS
COMBINED WITH MODEST JET DYNAMICS/SHEAR AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTING A RISK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS
GIVEN THE PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE.

SUNDAY...

LIKELY OUR TRANSITION DAY AS BOTH ENSEMBLES /12Z ECENS AND GEFS/
SUGGEST FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST SUN MORNING. THUS
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH COAST WITH A TREND
TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FROM NW TO SE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

SHOULD BE DRIER...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR OFFSHORE THIS
BOUNDARY GETS. THUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY LURK
JUST OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTSIDE OF SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS
MAINLY EXTREME NRN MA AND S NH AND SOME BRIEF FOG IN E MA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY ON THU. THIS IS
THANKS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WITH THIS FRONT...WINDS SHIFT FROM S-SW TO W-NW AND MAY
BRIEFLY GUST TO 20 KT. THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE AFTER 12Z.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY...ANY MVFR ALONG SOUTH COAST SHOULD TREND TOWARD VFR WITH
POTENTIAL SHOWERS MOVING OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
SW FLOW BEGINS TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY MIDNIGHT LASTING TIL ABOUT 3AM. SEAS
MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTH OCEAN WATERS BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING A SCA. OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY
LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDS LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE
BOATING WEATHER. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SW WIND WAVES DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS
INCREASING AFTER SUNSET.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

SUNDAY...FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE SLOWLY BUT SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BOSTON LOGAN AIRPORT REACHED 93 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE IN BOSTON SO FAR THIS SUMMER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 030519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...TAKING THE THE
SHOWERS AND LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOMORROW TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT...THERE HAVE BEEN NO
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO. THE
SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUITE QUICKLY...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WILL EXIT OUR EASTERN AREAS BEFORE 400 AM.

THE COLD FRONT WAS ON ITS HEELS...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVERYWHERE IN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL IT COMPLETELY CLEARS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE 60S TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...AND WILL DROP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

THE SKY WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRYING AND CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH A STEADY
WEST TO NORTH BREEZE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY AND BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A LITTLE COOLER IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT FOLLOWED BY DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
END THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT
WOULD FEATURE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THANKS IN PART
TO A RETURN FLOW SETUP FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
EAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE
REGION AS DEWPOINTS SURGE BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY...GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
FOR UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ACCOMPANYING THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...GENERALLY AROUND 6.0 C/KM WHICH SHOULD ALSO HAMPER THE
POTENCY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE
0-6KM LAYER OF 30-40 KNOTS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY LOCALIZED
STRONGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD OCCUR TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z THU...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF
WHERE STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. BY
DAYBREAK ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR AS WIND SHOULD PREVENT
ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING...AFT 1230Z SKIES WILL MAINLY BE SCT040
SCT100. FOG IS PSBL AGAIN THIS EVENING AFT 03Z AT KGFL AND KPOU
WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY BE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AT 5-10KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT AND ON
THURSDAY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTH TOMORROW
AT AROUND 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 20 MPH.
WILL WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 15 MPH THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION LATE IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS IS
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NORTH
OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT TIME.
THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL/BGM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 030519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...TAKING THE THE
SHOWERS AND LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOMORROW TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT...THERE HAVE BEEN NO
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO. THE
SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUITE QUICKLY...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WILL EXIT OUR EASTERN AREAS BEFORE 400 AM.

THE COLD FRONT WAS ON ITS HEELS...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVERYWHERE IN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL IT COMPLETELY CLEARS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE 60S TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...AND WILL DROP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

THE SKY WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRYING AND CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH A STEADY
WEST TO NORTH BREEZE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY AND BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A LITTLE COOLER IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT FOLLOWED BY DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
END THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT
WOULD FEATURE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THANKS IN PART
TO A RETURN FLOW SETUP FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
EAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE
REGION AS DEWPOINTS SURGE BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY...GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
FOR UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ACCOMPANYING THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...GENERALLY AROUND 6.0 C/KM WHICH SHOULD ALSO HAMPER THE
POTENCY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE
0-6KM LAYER OF 30-40 KNOTS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY LOCALIZED
STRONGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD OCCUR TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z THU...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF
WHERE STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. BY
DAYBREAK ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR AS WIND SHOULD PREVENT
ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING...AFT 1230Z SKIES WILL MAINLY BE SCT040
SCT100. FOG IS PSBL AGAIN THIS EVENING AFT 03Z AT KGFL AND KPOU
WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY BE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AT 5-10KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT AND ON
THURSDAY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTH TOMORROW
AT AROUND 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 20 MPH.
WILL WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 15 MPH THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION LATE IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS IS
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NORTH
OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT TIME.
THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL/BGM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 030519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...TAKING THE THE
SHOWERS AND LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOMORROW TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT...THERE HAVE BEEN NO
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO. THE
SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUITE QUICKLY...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WILL EXIT OUR EASTERN AREAS BEFORE 400 AM.

THE COLD FRONT WAS ON ITS HEELS...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVERYWHERE IN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL IT COMPLETELY CLEARS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE 60S TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...AND WILL DROP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

THE SKY WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRYING AND CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH A STEADY
WEST TO NORTH BREEZE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY AND BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A LITTLE COOLER IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT FOLLOWED BY DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
END THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT
WOULD FEATURE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THANKS IN PART
TO A RETURN FLOW SETUP FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
EAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE
REGION AS DEWPOINTS SURGE BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY...GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
FOR UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ACCOMPANYING THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...GENERALLY AROUND 6.0 C/KM WHICH SHOULD ALSO HAMPER THE
POTENCY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE
0-6KM LAYER OF 30-40 KNOTS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY LOCALIZED
STRONGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD OCCUR TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z THU...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF
WHERE STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. BY
DAYBREAK ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR AS WIND SHOULD PREVENT
ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING...AFT 1230Z SKIES WILL MAINLY BE SCT040
SCT100. FOG IS PSBL AGAIN THIS EVENING AFT 03Z AT KGFL AND KPOU
WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY BE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AT 5-10KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT AND ON
THURSDAY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTH TOMORROW
AT AROUND 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 20 MPH.
WILL WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 15 MPH THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION LATE IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS IS
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NORTH
OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT TIME.
THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL/BGM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 030519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...TAKING THE THE
SHOWERS AND LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOMORROW TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT...THERE HAVE BEEN NO
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO. THE
SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUITE QUICKLY...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WILL EXIT OUR EASTERN AREAS BEFORE 400 AM.

THE COLD FRONT WAS ON ITS HEELS...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVERYWHERE IN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL IT COMPLETELY CLEARS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE 60S TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...AND WILL DROP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

THE SKY WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRYING AND CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH A STEADY
WEST TO NORTH BREEZE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY AND BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A LITTLE COOLER IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT FOLLOWED BY DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
END THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT
WOULD FEATURE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THANKS IN PART
TO A RETURN FLOW SETUP FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
EAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE
REGION AS DEWPOINTS SURGE BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY...GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
FOR UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ACCOMPANYING THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...GENERALLY AROUND 6.0 C/KM WHICH SHOULD ALSO HAMPER THE
POTENCY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE
0-6KM LAYER OF 30-40 KNOTS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY LOCALIZED
STRONGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD OCCUR TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z THU...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KPSF
WHERE STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. BY
DAYBREAK ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR AS WIND SHOULD PREVENT
ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING...AFT 1230Z SKIES WILL MAINLY BE SCT040
SCT100. FOG IS PSBL AGAIN THIS EVENING AFT 03Z AT KGFL AND KPOU
WITH MVFR CONDS EXPECTED.

EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY BE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AT 5-10KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT AND ON
THURSDAY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTH TOMORROW
AT AROUND 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 20 MPH.
WILL WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 15 MPH THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION LATE IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS IS
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NORTH
OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT TIME.
THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL/BGM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 030450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...TAKING THE THE
SHOWERS AND LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOMORROW TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER INTO THE REGION.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT...THERE HAVE BEEN NO
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO. THE
SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUITE QUICKLY...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WILL EXIT OUR EASTERN AREAS BEFORE 400 AM.

THE COLD FRONT WAS ON ITS HEELS...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVERYWHERE IN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL IT COMPLETELY CLEARS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE 60S TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...AND WILL DROP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

THE SKY WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRYING AND CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH A STEADY
WEST TO NORTH BREEZE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY AND BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A LITTLE COOLER IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT FOLLOWED BY DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
END THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT
WOULD FEATURE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THANKS IN PART
TO A RETURN FLOW SETUP FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
EAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE
REGION AS DEWPOINTS SURGE BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY...GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
FOR UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ACCOMPANYING THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...GENERALLY AROUND 6.0 C/KM WHICH SHOULD ALSO HAMPER THE
POTENCY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE
0-6KM LAYER OF 30-40 KNOTS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY LOCALIZED
STRONGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD OCCUR TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS
COMBINATION OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED-THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A WEST-
NORTHWEST DIRECTION AT SPEEDS 5-10KTS. THIS MAY ALSO INHIBIT FROM
TOO MUCH FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH A WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND OF 5-10KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT AND ON
THURSDAY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTH TOMORROW
AT AROUND 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 20 MPH.
WILL WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 15 MPH THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION LATE IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS IS
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NORTH
OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT TIME.
THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL/BGM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 030450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...TAKING THE THE
SHOWERS AND LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOMORROW TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER INTO THE REGION.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT...THERE HAVE BEEN NO
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO. THE
SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUITE QUICKLY...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WILL EXIT OUR EASTERN AREAS BEFORE 400 AM.

THE COLD FRONT WAS ON ITS HEELS...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVERYWHERE IN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL IT COMPLETELY CLEARS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE 60S TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...AND WILL DROP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

THE SKY WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRYING AND CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH A STEADY
WEST TO NORTH BREEZE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY AND BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A LITTLE COOLER IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT FOLLOWED BY DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
END THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT
WOULD FEATURE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THANKS IN PART
TO A RETURN FLOW SETUP FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
EAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE
REGION AS DEWPOINTS SURGE BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY...GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
FOR UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ACCOMPANYING THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...GENERALLY AROUND 6.0 C/KM WHICH SHOULD ALSO HAMPER THE
POTENCY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE
0-6KM LAYER OF 30-40 KNOTS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY LOCALIZED
STRONGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD OCCUR TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS
COMBINATION OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED-THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A WEST-
NORTHWEST DIRECTION AT SPEEDS 5-10KTS. THIS MAY ALSO INHIBIT FROM
TOO MUCH FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH A WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND OF 5-10KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT AND ON
THURSDAY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTH TOMORROW
AT AROUND 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 20 MPH.
WILL WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 15 MPH THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION LATE IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS IS
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NORTH
OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT TIME.
THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL/BGM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 030450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...TAKING THE THE
SHOWERS AND LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOMORROW TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER INTO THE REGION.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT...THERE HAVE BEEN NO
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO. THE
SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUITE QUICKLY...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WILL EXIT OUR EASTERN AREAS BEFORE 400 AM.

THE COLD FRONT WAS ON ITS HEELS...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVERYWHERE IN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL IT COMPLETELY CLEARS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE 60S TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...AND WILL DROP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

THE SKY WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRYING AND CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH A STEADY
WEST TO NORTH BREEZE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY AND BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A LITTLE COOLER IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT FOLLOWED BY DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
END THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT
WOULD FEATURE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THANKS IN PART
TO A RETURN FLOW SETUP FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
EAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE
REGION AS DEWPOINTS SURGE BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY...GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
FOR UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ACCOMPANYING THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...GENERALLY AROUND 6.0 C/KM WHICH SHOULD ALSO HAMPER THE
POTENCY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE
0-6KM LAYER OF 30-40 KNOTS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY LOCALIZED
STRONGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD OCCUR TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS
COMBINATION OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED-THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A WEST-
NORTHWEST DIRECTION AT SPEEDS 5-10KTS. THIS MAY ALSO INHIBIT FROM
TOO MUCH FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH A WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND OF 5-10KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT AND ON
THURSDAY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTH TOMORROW
AT AROUND 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 20 MPH.
WILL WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 15 MPH THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION LATE IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS IS
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NORTH
OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT TIME.
THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL/BGM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 030450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...TAKING THE THE
SHOWERS AND LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOMORROW TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER INTO THE REGION.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. IN FACT...THERE HAVE BEEN NO
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO. THE
SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUITE QUICKLY...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND WILL EXIT OUR EASTERN AREAS BEFORE 400 AM.

THE COLD FRONT WAS ON ITS HEELS...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVERYWHERE IN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL IT COMPLETELY CLEARS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE 60S TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY...AND WILL DROP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

THE SKY WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRYING AND CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH A STEADY
WEST TO NORTH BREEZE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY AND BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A LITTLE COOLER IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT FOLLOWED BY DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
END THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT
WOULD FEATURE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THANKS IN PART
TO A RETURN FLOW SETUP FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
EAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE
REGION AS DEWPOINTS SURGE BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY...GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
FOR UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ACCOMPANYING THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...GENERALLY AROUND 6.0 C/KM WHICH SHOULD ALSO HAMPER THE
POTENCY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE
0-6KM LAYER OF 30-40 KNOTS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY LOCALIZED
STRONGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD OCCUR TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS
COMBINATION OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED-THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A WEST-
NORTHWEST DIRECTION AT SPEEDS 5-10KTS. THIS MAY ALSO INHIBIT FROM
TOO MUCH FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH A WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND OF 5-10KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT AND ON
THURSDAY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTH TOMORROW
AT AROUND 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 20 MPH.
WILL WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 15 MPH THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION LATE IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS IS
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NORTH
OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT TIME.
THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL/BGM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 030232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING...LINE OF CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND WAS
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION. PER THE HRRR/RAP13...THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL CLEAR OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES CLOSE TO
06Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY...SEEMS
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR A LITTLE LONGER. THE BUFR PROFILES
SUGGEST LOWER STRATUS WILL LINGER SO WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS
A LITTLE LONGER WITH THIS UPDATE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LITTLE
CHANGES NEEDED AS DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING WELL INTO THE 60S...AND
ONLY A SMALL DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRYING AND CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH A STEADY
WEST TO NORTH BREEZE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY AND BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A LITTLE COOLER IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT FOLLOWED BY DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
END THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT
WOULD FEATURE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THANKS IN PART
TO A RETURN FLOW SETUP FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
EAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE
REGION AS DEWPOINTS SURGE BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY...GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
FOR UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ACCOMPANYING THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...GENERALLY AROUND 6.0 C/KM WHICH SHOULD ALSO HAMPER THE
POTENCY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE
0-6KM LAYER OF 30-40 KNOTS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY LOCALIZED
STRONGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD OCCUR TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS
COMBINATION OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED-THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A WEST-
NORTHWEST DIRECTION AT SPEEDS 5-10KTS. THIS MAY ALSO INHIBIT FROM
TOO MUCH FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH A WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND OF 5-10KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT AND ON
THURSDAY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTH TOMORROW
AT AROUND 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 20 MPH.
WILL WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 15 MPH THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION LATE IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS IS
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NORTH
OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT TIME.
THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS/BGM
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL/BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 030232
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1032 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING...LINE OF CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND WAS
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION. PER THE HRRR/RAP13...THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL CLEAR OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES CLOSE TO
06Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY...SEEMS
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR A LITTLE LONGER. THE BUFR PROFILES
SUGGEST LOWER STRATUS WILL LINGER SO WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS
A LITTLE LONGER WITH THIS UPDATE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LITTLE
CHANGES NEEDED AS DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING WELL INTO THE 60S...AND
ONLY A SMALL DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRYING AND CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH A STEADY
WEST TO NORTH BREEZE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY AND BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A LITTLE COOLER IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT FOLLOWED BY DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
END THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT
WOULD FEATURE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THANKS IN PART
TO A RETURN FLOW SETUP FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
EAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE
REGION AS DEWPOINTS SURGE BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY...GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
FOR UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ACCOMPANYING THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...GENERALLY AROUND 6.0 C/KM WHICH SHOULD ALSO HAMPER THE
POTENCY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE
0-6KM LAYER OF 30-40 KNOTS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY LOCALIZED
STRONGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD OCCUR TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS
COMBINATION OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED-THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A WEST-
NORTHWEST DIRECTION AT SPEEDS 5-10KTS. THIS MAY ALSO INHIBIT FROM
TOO MUCH FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH A WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND OF 5-10KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT AND ON
THURSDAY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTH TOMORROW
AT AROUND 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 20 MPH.
WILL WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 15 MPH THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION LATE IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS IS
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NORTH
OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT TIME.
THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS/BGM
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL/BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AND
MUCH LESS HUMID AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MORE AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY
AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING WHAT WILL OCCUR WITH ONGOING CONVECTION
IN NY/NJ/PA THIS EVENING. CURRENT TIMING HAS THIS AT THE BOX CWA
BORDER BY ABOUT 0330Z OR ABOUT 1130PM. LATEST MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE ABOUT 1000J/KG OF 100MB ML CAPE VALUES BUT
THIS CONTINUES TO DECLINE CONSIDERING WE ARE OVER AN HOUR FROM
SUNSET NOW. THERE IS STILL MODEST LLJ ENERGY MAINLY FOCUSED WITH
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NJ...BUT THERE IS ALSO A SIGNIFICANT DIP IN
K-VALUES THANKS TO A BROAD DRY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT MODELS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING DISSIPATING A
LOT OF THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES IN DESPITE THE WHAT IS LEFT OF
THE INSTABILITY. EVEN WHAT IS LEFT SHOULD BE MUCH DIMINISHED BY
THE TIME THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT ARRIVES. THEREFORE...WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER POPS FROM W-E FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH
THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME AREAS E OF THE WORCESTER HILLS SEE
LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. STILL...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY
AS IT ENTERS THE WEST THANKS TO THAT NOTED SPIKE IN SHEAR WHICH
MAY AT LEAST HELP KEEP THINGS MODESTLY ORGANIZED. OTHERWISE...WILL
ALSO NEED TO WATCH SRN COASTAL WATERS SHOULD ANY CONVECTION MOVE
ACROSS WITH THAT LLJ CURRENTLY OVER NJ. IN SUM...COULD STILL BE
SOME THUNDER LEFT BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES IN ARES W OF THE
WORCESTER HILLS...WITH ONLY A VERY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...BUT
EXPECT EVERYTHING TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS THE FRONT SWINGS ACROSS SRN
NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND 02-04Z AND
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 10-12Z. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION PER THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMICS
OUT AHEAD OF IT IN WESTERN CWA`S. BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE
REGION A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LOSS SO WE MAY SEE DYING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER SOME MODELS...ESP THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE LINGERING BY THE TIME THE FRONT APPROACHES.
ON TOP OF THE POSSIBLE INSTABILITY...850MB LLJ DOES INCREASE AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AS WELL. IN
FACT...GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 25KTS...BUT IT
IS THE 0-1 KM SHEAR THAT INCREASES TO 30-40KTS. LASTLY K-INDEX PLUME
MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME GIVING THE REGION THE
MOISTURE IT NEEDS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.

THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT ALL THE INGREDIENT MENTIONED ABOVE MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS A SEVERE STORM AS THE FRONT MOVES THE
REGION. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS IS AN OVERNIGHT EVENT WHICH IS NOT IN
THE NORTHEAST FAVOR PER CLIMO...BUT CONDITIONS DO SHOW THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LASTLY...EVEN THOUGH THE REGION DID SEE
SOME ACTION TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE DID BOUNCE BACK VERY WELL AFTER
THE STORMS PASSED.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE K-INDEX VALUE AS WELL AS THE
INSTABILITY DO DROP AFTER 06Z SO THAT THE CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION
TO OCCUR DISSIPATES SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT WILL FRAGMENT AND BECOME VERY ISO IN
NATURE BY THIS TIME FRAME AND MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EAST
COAST. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE BELIEVE THAT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL REACH SO CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NOW.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM RADIATING OUT OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. 850 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SET UP OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
850 MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -14C AND WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
HUMIDITY AS DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN DROPPING DEWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY REACHING ABOUT 20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...ANTICIPATE RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO LOW 50S. A FEW SITES COULD EVEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CT VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS
* MORE HUMID SAT WITH SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
* TREND TOWARD COOLER/LESS HUMID WEATHER SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

DRY/QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THU WITH HIGH PRES AND A DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS OF 80-
85...COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES...HOWEVER DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S WILL PROVIDE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

BY FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRIEFLY BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S COMBINED WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW PTS CLIMB FROM
THE 50S INTO THE 60S. THUS A WARM AND HUMID DAY FRIDAY.

ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z GEFS AND NEW 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST
JET DYNAMICS/BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI FROM A MODEL BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE.
HENCE MOST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY RI AND EASTERN MA MAY REMAIN DRY
FRI.

SATURDAY...

ALL DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC /12Z GEFS AND 12Z ECENS/ GUIDANCE
SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION SAT. TEMPS ARE
PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 80S SAT ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70 SO THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THE 12Z GEFS
SUGGEST A 30-40% PROBABILITY OF UP TO 1200 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS
COMBINED WITH MODEST JET DYNAMICS/SHEAR AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTING A RISK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS
GIVEN THE PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE.

SUNDAY...

LIKELY OUR TRANSITION DAY AS BOTH ENSEMBLES /12Z ECENS AND GEFS/
SUGGEST FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST SUN MORNING. THUS
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH COAST WITH A TREND
TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FROM NW TO SE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

SHOULD BE DRIER...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR OFFSHORE THIS
BOUNDARY GETS. THUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY LURK
JUST OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS.

7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 18Z TAFS. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
OVER MA CONTINUE TO ERODE. NEXT ROUND OF T-STORMS OVER WESTERN-
CENTRAL NY AND PA ARRIVES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND 01Z-03Z THEN
WEAKENS AS IT ENTERS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. FOG AT NANTUCKET WILL
PERSIST AND THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 06Z AND ESPECIALLY 09Z-
12Z WHEN FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==============================================================

TONIGHT...A LULL IN ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z. BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WITH ISO THUNDER MOVES THROUGH AFTER 03/04Z. THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH BRIEF LOWERING IN CIG HEIGHTS.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG IN CT VALLEY WED NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY...ANY MVFR ALONG SOUTH COAST SHOULD TREND TOWARD VFR WITH
POTENTIAL SHOWERS MOVING OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
SW FLOW BEGINS TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY MIDNIGHT LASTING TIL ABOUT 3AM. SEAS
MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTH OCEAN WATERS BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING A SCA. OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY
LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDS LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE
BOATING WEATHER. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SW WIND WAVES DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS
INCREASING AFTER SUNSET.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

SUNDAY...FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE SLOWLY BUT SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BOSTON LOGAN AIRPORT REACHED 93 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE IN BOSTON SO FAR THIS SUMMER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 030201
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AND
MUCH LESS HUMID AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MORE AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY
AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING WHAT WILL OCCUR WITH ONGOING CONVECTION
IN NY/NJ/PA THIS EVENING. CURRENT TIMING HAS THIS AT THE BOX CWA
BORDER BY ABOUT 0330Z OR ABOUT 1130PM. LATEST MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE ABOUT 1000J/KG OF 100MB ML CAPE VALUES BUT
THIS CONTINUES TO DECLINE CONSIDERING WE ARE OVER AN HOUR FROM
SUNSET NOW. THERE IS STILL MODEST LLJ ENERGY MAINLY FOCUSED WITH
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NJ...BUT THERE IS ALSO A SIGNIFICANT DIP IN
K-VALUES THANKS TO A BROAD DRY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT MODELS MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING DISSIPATING A
LOT OF THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES IN DESPITE THE WHAT IS LEFT OF
THE INSTABILITY. EVEN WHAT IS LEFT SHOULD BE MUCH DIMINISHED BY
THE TIME THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT ARRIVES. THEREFORE...WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER POPS FROM W-E FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH
THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME AREAS E OF THE WORCESTER HILLS SEE
LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. STILL...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY
AS IT ENTERS THE WEST THANKS TO THAT NOTED SPIKE IN SHEAR WHICH
MAY AT LEAST HELP KEEP THINGS MODESTLY ORGANIZED. OTHERWISE...WILL
ALSO NEED TO WATCH SRN COASTAL WATERS SHOULD ANY CONVECTION MOVE
ACROSS WITH THAT LLJ CURRENTLY OVER NJ. IN SUM...COULD STILL BE
SOME THUNDER LEFT BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES IN ARES W OF THE
WORCESTER HILLS...WITH ONLY A VERY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...BUT
EXPECT EVERYTHING TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS THE FRONT SWINGS ACROSS SRN
NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND 02-04Z AND
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 10-12Z. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION PER THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMICS
OUT AHEAD OF IT IN WESTERN CWA`S. BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE
REGION A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LOSS SO WE MAY SEE DYING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER SOME MODELS...ESP THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE LINGERING BY THE TIME THE FRONT APPROACHES.
ON TOP OF THE POSSIBLE INSTABILITY...850MB LLJ DOES INCREASE AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AS WELL. IN
FACT...GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 25KTS...BUT IT
IS THE 0-1 KM SHEAR THAT INCREASES TO 30-40KTS. LASTLY K-INDEX PLUME
MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME GIVING THE REGION THE
MOISTURE IT NEEDS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.

THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT ALL THE INGREDIENT MENTIONED ABOVE MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS A SEVERE STORM AS THE FRONT MOVES THE
REGION. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS IS AN OVERNIGHT EVENT WHICH IS NOT IN
THE NORTHEAST FAVOR PER CLIMO...BUT CONDITIONS DO SHOW THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LASTLY...EVEN THOUGH THE REGION DID SEE
SOME ACTION TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE DID BOUNCE BACK VERY WELL AFTER
THE STORMS PASSED.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE K-INDEX VALUE AS WELL AS THE
INSTABILITY DO DROP AFTER 06Z SO THAT THE CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION
TO OCCUR DISSIPATES SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT WILL FRAGMENT AND BECOME VERY ISO IN
NATURE BY THIS TIME FRAME AND MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EAST
COAST. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE BELIEVE THAT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL REACH SO CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NOW.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM RADIATING OUT OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. 850 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SET UP OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
850 MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -14C AND WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
HUMIDITY AS DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN DROPPING DEWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY REACHING ABOUT 20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...ANTICIPATE RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO LOW 50S. A FEW SITES COULD EVEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CT VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS
* MORE HUMID SAT WITH SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
* TREND TOWARD COOLER/LESS HUMID WEATHER SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

DRY/QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THU WITH HIGH PRES AND A DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS OF 80-
85...COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES...HOWEVER DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S WILL PROVIDE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

BY FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRIEFLY BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S COMBINED WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW PTS CLIMB FROM
THE 50S INTO THE 60S. THUS A WARM AND HUMID DAY FRIDAY.

ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z GEFS AND NEW 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST
JET DYNAMICS/BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI FROM A MODEL BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE.
HENCE MOST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY RI AND EASTERN MA MAY REMAIN DRY
FRI.

SATURDAY...

ALL DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC /12Z GEFS AND 12Z ECENS/ GUIDANCE
SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION SAT. TEMPS ARE
PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 80S SAT ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70 SO THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THE 12Z GEFS
SUGGEST A 30-40% PROBABILITY OF UP TO 1200 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS
COMBINED WITH MODEST JET DYNAMICS/SHEAR AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTING A RISK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS
GIVEN THE PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE.

SUNDAY...

LIKELY OUR TRANSITION DAY AS BOTH ENSEMBLES /12Z ECENS AND GEFS/
SUGGEST FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST SUN MORNING. THUS
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH COAST WITH A TREND
TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FROM NW TO SE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

SHOULD BE DRIER...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR OFFSHORE THIS
BOUNDARY GETS. THUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY LURK
JUST OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS.

7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 18Z TAFS. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
OVER MA CONTINUE TO ERODE. NEXT ROUND OF T-STORMS OVER WESTERN-
CENTRAL NY AND PA ARRIVES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND 01Z-03Z THEN
WEAKENS AS IT ENTERS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. FOG AT NANTUCKET WILL
PERSIST AND THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 06Z AND ESPECIALLY 09Z-
12Z WHEN FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==============================================================

TONIGHT...A LULL IN ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z. BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WITH ISO THUNDER MOVES THROUGH AFTER 03/04Z. THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH BRIEF LOWERING IN CIG HEIGHTS.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG IN CT VALLEY WED NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY...ANY MVFR ALONG SOUTH COAST SHOULD TREND TOWARD VFR WITH
POTENTIAL SHOWERS MOVING OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
SW FLOW BEGINS TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY MIDNIGHT LASTING TIL ABOUT 3AM. SEAS
MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTH OCEAN WATERS BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING A SCA. OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY
LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDS LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE
BOATING WEATHER. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SW WIND WAVES DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS
INCREASING AFTER SUNSET.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

SUNDAY...FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE SLOWLY BUT SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BOSTON LOGAN AIRPORT REACHED 93 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE IN BOSTON SO FAR THIS SUMMER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022316
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
716 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AND
MUCH LESS HUMID AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MORE AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY
AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS
INCLUDING THE RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN-CENTRAL NY INTO PA WILL ENTER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN
9 PM AND 11 PM. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA
WITH GUSTY WINDS/HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE LINE OF STORMS IS
THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE CT RVR. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES
THESE DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND 02-04Z AND
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 10-12Z. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION PER THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMICS
OUT AHEAD OF IT IN WESTERN CWA`S. BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE
REGION A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LOSS SO WE MAY SEE DYING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER SOME MODELS...ESP THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE LINGERING BY THE TIME THE FRONT APPROACHES.
ON TOP OF THE POSSIBLE INSTABILITY...850MB LLJ DOES INCREASE AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AS WELL. IN
FACT...GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 25KTS...BUT IT
IS THE 0-1 KM SHEAR THAT INCREASES TO 30-40KTS. LASTLY K-INDEX PLUME
MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME GIVING THE REGION THE
MOISTURE IT NEEDS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.

THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT ALL THE INGREDIENT MENTIONED ABOVE MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS A SEVERE STORM AS THE FRONT MOVES THE
REGION. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS IS AN OVERNIGHT EVENT WHICH IS NOT IN
THE NORTHEAST FAVOR PER CLIMO...BUT CONDITIONS DO SHOW THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LASTLY...EVEN THOUGH THE REGION DID SEE
SOME ACTION TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE DID BOUNCE BACK VERY WELL AFTER
THE STORMS PASSED.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE K-INDEX VALUE AS WELL AS THE
INSTABILITY DO DROP AFTER 06Z SO THAT THE CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION
TO OCCUR DISSIPATES SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT WILL FRAGMENT AND BECOME VERY ISO IN
NATURE BY THIS TIME FRAME AND MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EAST
COAST. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE BELIEVE THAT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL REACH SO CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NOW.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM RADIATING OUT OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. 850 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SET UP OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
850 MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -14C AND WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
HUMIDITY AS DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN DROPPING DEWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY REACHING ABOUT 20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...ANTICIPATE RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO LOW 50S. A FEW SITES COULD EVEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CT VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS
* MORE HUMID SAT WITH SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
* TREND TOWARD COOLER/LESS HUMID WEATHER SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

DRY/QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THU WITH HIGH PRES AND A DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS OF 80-
85...COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES...HOWEVER DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S WILL PROVIDE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

BY FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRIEFLY BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S COMBINED WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW PTS CLIMB FROM
THE 50S INTO THE 60S. THUS A WARM AND HUMID DAY FRIDAY.

ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z GEFS AND NEW 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST
JET DYNAMICS/BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI FROM A MODEL BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE.
HENCE MOST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY RI AND EASTERN MA MAY REMAIN DRY
FRI.

SATURDAY...

ALL DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC /12Z GEFS AND 12Z ECENS/ GUIDANCE
SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION SAT. TEMPS ARE
PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 80S SAT ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70 SO THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THE 12Z GEFS
SUGGEST A 30-40% PROBABILITY OF UP TO 1200 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS
COMBINED WITH MODEST JET DYNAMICS/SHEAR AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTING A RISK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS
GIVEN THE PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE.

SUNDAY...

LIKELY OUR TRANSITION DAY AS BOTH ENSEMBLES /12Z ECENS AND GEFS/
SUGGEST FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST SUN MORNING. THUS
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH COAST WITH A TREND
TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FROM NW TO SE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

SHOULD BE DRIER...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR OFFSHORE THIS
BOUNDARY GETS. THUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY LURK
JUST OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS.

7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 18Z TAFS. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
OVER MA CONTINUE TO ERODE. NEXT ROUND OF T-STORMS OVER WESTERN-
CENTRAL NY AND PA ARRIVES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND 01Z-03Z THEN
WEAKENS AS IT ENTERS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. FOG AT NANTUCKET WILL
PERSIST AND THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 06Z AND ESPECIALLY 09Z-
12Z WHEN FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==============================================================

TONIGHT...A LULL IN ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z. BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WITH ISO THUNDER MOVES THROUGH AFTER 03/04Z. THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH BRIEF LOWERING IN CIG HEIGHTS.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG IN CT VALLEY WED NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY...ANY MVFR ALONG SOUTH COAST SHOULD TREND TOWARD VFR WITH
POTENTIAL SHOWERS MOVING OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
SW FLOW BEGINS TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY MIDNIGHT LASTING TIL ABOUT 3AM. SEAS
MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTH OCEAN WATERS BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING A SCA. OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY
LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDS LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE
BOATING WEATHER. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SW WIND WAVES DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS
INCREASING AFTER SUNSET.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

SUNDAY...FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE SLOWLY BUT SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BOSTON LOGAN AIRPORT REACHED 93 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE IN BOSTON SO FAR THIS SUMMER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 022316
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
716 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AND
MUCH LESS HUMID AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MORE AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY
AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS
INCLUDING THE RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN-CENTRAL NY INTO PA WILL ENTER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN
9 PM AND 11 PM. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA
WITH GUSTY WINDS/HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE LINE OF STORMS IS
THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE CT RVR. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES
THESE DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND 02-04Z AND
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 10-12Z. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION PER THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMICS
OUT AHEAD OF IT IN WESTERN CWA`S. BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE
REGION A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LOSS SO WE MAY SEE DYING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER SOME MODELS...ESP THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE LINGERING BY THE TIME THE FRONT APPROACHES.
ON TOP OF THE POSSIBLE INSTABILITY...850MB LLJ DOES INCREASE AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AS WELL. IN
FACT...GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 25KTS...BUT IT
IS THE 0-1 KM SHEAR THAT INCREASES TO 30-40KTS. LASTLY K-INDEX PLUME
MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME GIVING THE REGION THE
MOISTURE IT NEEDS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.

THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT ALL THE INGREDIENT MENTIONED ABOVE MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS A SEVERE STORM AS THE FRONT MOVES THE
REGION. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS IS AN OVERNIGHT EVENT WHICH IS NOT IN
THE NORTHEAST FAVOR PER CLIMO...BUT CONDITIONS DO SHOW THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LASTLY...EVEN THOUGH THE REGION DID SEE
SOME ACTION TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE DID BOUNCE BACK VERY WELL AFTER
THE STORMS PASSED.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE K-INDEX VALUE AS WELL AS THE
INSTABILITY DO DROP AFTER 06Z SO THAT THE CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION
TO OCCUR DISSIPATES SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT WILL FRAGMENT AND BECOME VERY ISO IN
NATURE BY THIS TIME FRAME AND MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EAST
COAST. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE BELIEVE THAT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL REACH SO CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NOW.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM RADIATING OUT OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. 850 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SET UP OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
850 MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -14C AND WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
HUMIDITY AS DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN DROPPING DEWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY REACHING ABOUT 20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...ANTICIPATE RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO LOW 50S. A FEW SITES COULD EVEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CT VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS
* MORE HUMID SAT WITH SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
* TREND TOWARD COOLER/LESS HUMID WEATHER SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

DRY/QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THU WITH HIGH PRES AND A DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS OF 80-
85...COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES...HOWEVER DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S WILL PROVIDE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

BY FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRIEFLY BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S COMBINED WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW PTS CLIMB FROM
THE 50S INTO THE 60S. THUS A WARM AND HUMID DAY FRIDAY.

ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z GEFS AND NEW 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST
JET DYNAMICS/BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI FROM A MODEL BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE.
HENCE MOST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY RI AND EASTERN MA MAY REMAIN DRY
FRI.

SATURDAY...

ALL DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC /12Z GEFS AND 12Z ECENS/ GUIDANCE
SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION SAT. TEMPS ARE
PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 80S SAT ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70 SO THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THE 12Z GEFS
SUGGEST A 30-40% PROBABILITY OF UP TO 1200 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS
COMBINED WITH MODEST JET DYNAMICS/SHEAR AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTING A RISK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS
GIVEN THE PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE.

SUNDAY...

LIKELY OUR TRANSITION DAY AS BOTH ENSEMBLES /12Z ECENS AND GEFS/
SUGGEST FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST SUN MORNING. THUS
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH COAST WITH A TREND
TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FROM NW TO SE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

SHOULD BE DRIER...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR OFFSHORE THIS
BOUNDARY GETS. THUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY LURK
JUST OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS.

7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 18Z TAFS. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
OVER MA CONTINUE TO ERODE. NEXT ROUND OF T-STORMS OVER WESTERN-
CENTRAL NY AND PA ARRIVES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND 01Z-03Z THEN
WEAKENS AS IT ENTERS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. FOG AT NANTUCKET WILL
PERSIST AND THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 06Z AND ESPECIALLY 09Z-
12Z WHEN FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==============================================================

TONIGHT...A LULL IN ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z. BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WITH ISO THUNDER MOVES THROUGH AFTER 03/04Z. THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH BRIEF LOWERING IN CIG HEIGHTS.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG IN CT VALLEY WED NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY...ANY MVFR ALONG SOUTH COAST SHOULD TREND TOWARD VFR WITH
POTENTIAL SHOWERS MOVING OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
SW FLOW BEGINS TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY MIDNIGHT LASTING TIL ABOUT 3AM. SEAS
MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTH OCEAN WATERS BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING A SCA. OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY
LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDS LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE
BOATING WEATHER. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SW WIND WAVES DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS
INCREASING AFTER SUNSET.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

SUNDAY...FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE SLOWLY BUT SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BOSTON LOGAN AIRPORT REACHED 93 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE IN BOSTON SO FAR THIS SUMMER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022056
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AND
MUCH LESS HUMID AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MORE AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY
AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL LIKE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO
GROW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTING NOTE...AFTER THE STORMS PASS
MANY SITES DROP DOWN INTO THE MID-70F FOR TEMPS. BUT BECAUSE OF HOW
JUICY AND TROPICAL THE AIRMASS IS THEY BOUNCE RIGHT BACK UP TO 90F
WITHIN AN HOUR. ASIDE FROM A FEW ISO THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A MOSTLY QUIET EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND 02-04Z AND
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 10-12Z. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION PER THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMICS
OUT AHEAD OF IT IN WESTERN CWA`S. BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE
REGION A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LOSS SO WE MAY SEE DYING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER SOME MODELS...ESP THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE LINGERING BY THE TIME THE FRONT APPROACHES.
ON TOP OF THE POSSIBLE INSTABILITY...850MB LLJ DOES INCREASE AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AS WELL. IN
FACT...GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 25KTS...BUT IT
IS THE 0-1 KM SHEAR THAT INCREASES TO 30-40KTS. LASTLY K-INDEX PLUME
MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME GIVING THE REGION THE
MOISTURE IT NEEDS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.

THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT ALL THE INGREDIENT MENTIONED ABOVE MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS A SEVERE STORM AS THE FRONT MOVES THE
REGION. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS IS AN OVERNIGHT EVENT WHICH IS NOT IN
THE NORTHEAST FAVOR PER CLIMO...BUT CONDITIONS DO SHOW THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LASTLY...EVEN THOUGH THE REGION DID SEE
SOME ACTION TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE DID BOUNCE BACK VERY WELL AFTER
THE STORMS PASSED.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE K-INDEX VALUE AS WELL AS THE
INSTABILITY DO DROP AFTER 06Z SO THAT THE CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION
TO OCCUR DISSIPATES SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT WILL FRAGMENT AND BECOME VERY ISO IN
NATURE BY THIS TIME FRAME AND MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EAST
COAST. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE BELIEVE THAT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL REACH SO CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NOW.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM RADIATING OUT OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. 850 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SET UP OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
850 MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -14C AND WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
HUMIDITY AS DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN DROPPING DEWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY REACHING ABOUT 20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...ANTICIPATE RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO LOW 50S. A FEW SITES COULD EVEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CT VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS
* MORE HUMID SAT WITH SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
* TREND TOWARD COOLER/LESS HUMID WEATHER SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

DRY/QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THU WITH HIGH PRES AND A DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS OF 80-
85...COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES...HOWEVER DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S WILL PROVIDE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

BY FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRIEFLY BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S COMBINED WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW PTS CLIMB FROM
THE 50S INTO THE 60S. THUS A WARM AND HUMID DAY FRIDAY.

ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z GEFS AND NEW 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST
JET DYNAMICS/BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI FROM A MODEL BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE.
HENCE MOST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY RI AND EASTERN MA MAY REMAIN DRY
FRI.

SATURDAY...

ALL DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC /12Z GEFS AND 12Z ECENS/ GUIDANCE
SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION SAT. TEMPS ARE
PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 80S SAT ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70 SO THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THE 12Z GEFS
SUGGEST A 30-40% PROBABILITY OF UP TO 1200 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS
COMBINED WITH MODEST JET DYNAMICS/SHEAR AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTING A RISK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS
GIVEN THE PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE.

SUNDAY...

LIKELY OUR TRANSITION DAY AS BOTH ENSEMBLES /12Z ECENS AND GEFS/
SUGGEST FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST SUN MORNING. THUS
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH COAST WITH A TREND
TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FROM NW TO SE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

SHOULD BE DRIER...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR OFFSHORE THIS
BOUNDARY GETS. THUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY LURK
JUST OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS.

THROUGH 00Z...SCT TSRA NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH ISO TSRA SOUTH OF
THE PIKE. ANTICIPATE BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS TIL ABOUT
22Z.

TONIGHT...A LULL IN ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z. BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WITH ISO THUNDER MOVES THROUGH AFTER 03/04Z. THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH BRIEF LOWERING IN CIG HEIGHTS.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG IN CT VALLEY WED NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY...ANY MVFR ALONG SOUTH COAST SHOULD TREND TOWARD VFR WITH
POTENTIAL SHOWERS MOVING OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
SW FLOW BEGINS TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY MIDNIGHT LASTING TIL ABOUT 3AM. SEAS
MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTH OCEAN WATERS BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING A SCA. OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY
LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDS LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE
BOATING WEATHER. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SW WIND WAVES DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS
INCREASING AFTER SUNSET.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

SUNDAY...FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE SLOWLY BUT SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BOSTON LOGAN AIRPORT REACHED 93 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE IN BOSTON SO FAR THIS SUMMER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022056
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AND
MUCH LESS HUMID AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MORE AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY
AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL LIKE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO
GROW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTING NOTE...AFTER THE STORMS PASS
MANY SITES DROP DOWN INTO THE MID-70F FOR TEMPS. BUT BECAUSE OF HOW
JUICY AND TROPICAL THE AIRMASS IS THEY BOUNCE RIGHT BACK UP TO 90F
WITHIN AN HOUR. ASIDE FROM A FEW ISO THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A MOSTLY QUIET EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND 02-04Z AND
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 10-12Z. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION PER THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMICS
OUT AHEAD OF IT IN WESTERN CWA`S. BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE
REGION A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LOSS SO WE MAY SEE DYING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER SOME MODELS...ESP THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE LINGERING BY THE TIME THE FRONT APPROACHES.
ON TOP OF THE POSSIBLE INSTABILITY...850MB LLJ DOES INCREASE AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AS WELL. IN
FACT...GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 25KTS...BUT IT
IS THE 0-1 KM SHEAR THAT INCREASES TO 30-40KTS. LASTLY K-INDEX PLUME
MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME GIVING THE REGION THE
MOISTURE IT NEEDS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.

THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT ALL THE INGREDIENT MENTIONED ABOVE MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS A SEVERE STORM AS THE FRONT MOVES THE
REGION. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS IS AN OVERNIGHT EVENT WHICH IS NOT IN
THE NORTHEAST FAVOR PER CLIMO...BUT CONDITIONS DO SHOW THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LASTLY...EVEN THOUGH THE REGION DID SEE
SOME ACTION TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE DID BOUNCE BACK VERY WELL AFTER
THE STORMS PASSED.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE K-INDEX VALUE AS WELL AS THE
INSTABILITY DO DROP AFTER 06Z SO THAT THE CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION
TO OCCUR DISSIPATES SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT WILL FRAGMENT AND BECOME VERY ISO IN
NATURE BY THIS TIME FRAME AND MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EAST
COAST. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE BELIEVE THAT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL REACH SO CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NOW.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM RADIATING OUT OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. 850 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SET UP OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
850 MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -14C AND WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
HUMIDITY AS DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN DROPPING DEWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY REACHING ABOUT 20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...ANTICIPATE RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO LOW 50S. A FEW SITES COULD EVEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CT VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS
* MORE HUMID SAT WITH SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
* TREND TOWARD COOLER/LESS HUMID WEATHER SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

DRY/QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THU WITH HIGH PRES AND A DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS OF 80-
85...COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES...HOWEVER DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S WILL PROVIDE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

BY FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRIEFLY BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S COMBINED WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW PTS CLIMB FROM
THE 50S INTO THE 60S. THUS A WARM AND HUMID DAY FRIDAY.

ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z GEFS AND NEW 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST
JET DYNAMICS/BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI FROM A MODEL BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE.
HENCE MOST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY RI AND EASTERN MA MAY REMAIN DRY
FRI.

SATURDAY...

ALL DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC /12Z GEFS AND 12Z ECENS/ GUIDANCE
SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION SAT. TEMPS ARE
PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 80S SAT ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70 SO THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THE 12Z GEFS
SUGGEST A 30-40% PROBABILITY OF UP TO 1200 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS
COMBINED WITH MODEST JET DYNAMICS/SHEAR AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTING A RISK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS
GIVEN THE PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE.

SUNDAY...

LIKELY OUR TRANSITION DAY AS BOTH ENSEMBLES /12Z ECENS AND GEFS/
SUGGEST FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST SUN MORNING. THUS
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH COAST WITH A TREND
TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FROM NW TO SE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

SHOULD BE DRIER...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR OFFSHORE THIS
BOUNDARY GETS. THUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY LURK
JUST OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS.

THROUGH 00Z...SCT TSRA NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH ISO TSRA SOUTH OF
THE PIKE. ANTICIPATE BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS TIL ABOUT
22Z.

TONIGHT...A LULL IN ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z. BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WITH ISO THUNDER MOVES THROUGH AFTER 03/04Z. THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH BRIEF LOWERING IN CIG HEIGHTS.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG IN CT VALLEY WED NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY...ANY MVFR ALONG SOUTH COAST SHOULD TREND TOWARD VFR WITH
POTENTIAL SHOWERS MOVING OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
SW FLOW BEGINS TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY MIDNIGHT LASTING TIL ABOUT 3AM. SEAS
MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTH OCEAN WATERS BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING A SCA. OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY
LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDS LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE
BOATING WEATHER. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SW WIND WAVES DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS
INCREASING AFTER SUNSET.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

SUNDAY...FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE SLOWLY BUT SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BOSTON LOGAN AIRPORT REACHED 93 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE IN BOSTON SO FAR THIS SUMMER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022056
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AND
MUCH LESS HUMID AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MORE AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY
AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL LIKE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO
GROW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTING NOTE...AFTER THE STORMS PASS
MANY SITES DROP DOWN INTO THE MID-70F FOR TEMPS. BUT BECAUSE OF HOW
JUICY AND TROPICAL THE AIRMASS IS THEY BOUNCE RIGHT BACK UP TO 90F
WITHIN AN HOUR. ASIDE FROM A FEW ISO THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A MOSTLY QUIET EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND 02-04Z AND
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 10-12Z. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION PER THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMICS
OUT AHEAD OF IT IN WESTERN CWA`S. BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE
REGION A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LOSS SO WE MAY SEE DYING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER SOME MODELS...ESP THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE LINGERING BY THE TIME THE FRONT APPROACHES.
ON TOP OF THE POSSIBLE INSTABILITY...850MB LLJ DOES INCREASE AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AS WELL. IN
FACT...GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 25KTS...BUT IT
IS THE 0-1 KM SHEAR THAT INCREASES TO 30-40KTS. LASTLY K-INDEX PLUME
MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME GIVING THE REGION THE
MOISTURE IT NEEDS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.

THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT ALL THE INGREDIENT MENTIONED ABOVE MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS A SEVERE STORM AS THE FRONT MOVES THE
REGION. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS IS AN OVERNIGHT EVENT WHICH IS NOT IN
THE NORTHEAST FAVOR PER CLIMO...BUT CONDITIONS DO SHOW THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LASTLY...EVEN THOUGH THE REGION DID SEE
SOME ACTION TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE DID BOUNCE BACK VERY WELL AFTER
THE STORMS PASSED.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE K-INDEX VALUE AS WELL AS THE
INSTABILITY DO DROP AFTER 06Z SO THAT THE CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION
TO OCCUR DISSIPATES SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT WILL FRAGMENT AND BECOME VERY ISO IN
NATURE BY THIS TIME FRAME AND MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EAST
COAST. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE BELIEVE THAT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL REACH SO CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NOW.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM RADIATING OUT OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. 850 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SET UP OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
850 MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -14C AND WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
HUMIDITY AS DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN DROPPING DEWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY REACHING ABOUT 20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...ANTICIPATE RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO LOW 50S. A FEW SITES COULD EVEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CT VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS
* MORE HUMID SAT WITH SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
* TREND TOWARD COOLER/LESS HUMID WEATHER SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

DRY/QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THU WITH HIGH PRES AND A DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS OF 80-
85...COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES...HOWEVER DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S WILL PROVIDE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

BY FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRIEFLY BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S COMBINED WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW PTS CLIMB FROM
THE 50S INTO THE 60S. THUS A WARM AND HUMID DAY FRIDAY.

ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z GEFS AND NEW 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST
JET DYNAMICS/BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI FROM A MODEL BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE.
HENCE MOST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY RI AND EASTERN MA MAY REMAIN DRY
FRI.

SATURDAY...

ALL DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC /12Z GEFS AND 12Z ECENS/ GUIDANCE
SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION SAT. TEMPS ARE
PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 80S SAT ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70 SO THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THE 12Z GEFS
SUGGEST A 30-40% PROBABILITY OF UP TO 1200 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS
COMBINED WITH MODEST JET DYNAMICS/SHEAR AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTING A RISK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS
GIVEN THE PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE.

SUNDAY...

LIKELY OUR TRANSITION DAY AS BOTH ENSEMBLES /12Z ECENS AND GEFS/
SUGGEST FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST SUN MORNING. THUS
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH COAST WITH A TREND
TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FROM NW TO SE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

SHOULD BE DRIER...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR OFFSHORE THIS
BOUNDARY GETS. THUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY LURK
JUST OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS.

THROUGH 00Z...SCT TSRA NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH ISO TSRA SOUTH OF
THE PIKE. ANTICIPATE BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS TIL ABOUT
22Z.

TONIGHT...A LULL IN ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z. BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WITH ISO THUNDER MOVES THROUGH AFTER 03/04Z. THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH BRIEF LOWERING IN CIG HEIGHTS.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG IN CT VALLEY WED NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY...ANY MVFR ALONG SOUTH COAST SHOULD TREND TOWARD VFR WITH
POTENTIAL SHOWERS MOVING OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
SW FLOW BEGINS TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY MIDNIGHT LASTING TIL ABOUT 3AM. SEAS
MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTH OCEAN WATERS BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING A SCA. OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY
LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDS LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE
BOATING WEATHER. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SW WIND WAVES DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS
INCREASING AFTER SUNSET.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

SUNDAY...FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE SLOWLY BUT SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BOSTON LOGAN AIRPORT REACHED 93 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE IN BOSTON SO FAR THIS SUMMER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022056
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AND
MUCH LESS HUMID AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MORE AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY
AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL LIKE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO
GROW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTING NOTE...AFTER THE STORMS PASS
MANY SITES DROP DOWN INTO THE MID-70F FOR TEMPS. BUT BECAUSE OF HOW
JUICY AND TROPICAL THE AIRMASS IS THEY BOUNCE RIGHT BACK UP TO 90F
WITHIN AN HOUR. ASIDE FROM A FEW ISO THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A MOSTLY QUIET EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND 02-04Z AND
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 10-12Z. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION PER THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMICS
OUT AHEAD OF IT IN WESTERN CWA`S. BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE
REGION A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LOSS SO WE MAY SEE DYING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER SOME MODELS...ESP THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE LINGERING BY THE TIME THE FRONT APPROACHES.
ON TOP OF THE POSSIBLE INSTABILITY...850MB LLJ DOES INCREASE AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AS WELL. IN
FACT...GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 25KTS...BUT IT
IS THE 0-1 KM SHEAR THAT INCREASES TO 30-40KTS. LASTLY K-INDEX PLUME
MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME GIVING THE REGION THE
MOISTURE IT NEEDS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.

THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT ALL THE INGREDIENT MENTIONED ABOVE MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS A SEVERE STORM AS THE FRONT MOVES THE
REGION. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS IS AN OVERNIGHT EVENT WHICH IS NOT IN
THE NORTHEAST FAVOR PER CLIMO...BUT CONDITIONS DO SHOW THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LASTLY...EVEN THOUGH THE REGION DID SEE
SOME ACTION TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE DID BOUNCE BACK VERY WELL AFTER
THE STORMS PASSED.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE K-INDEX VALUE AS WELL AS THE
INSTABILITY DO DROP AFTER 06Z SO THAT THE CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION
TO OCCUR DISSIPATES SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT WILL FRAGMENT AND BECOME VERY ISO IN
NATURE BY THIS TIME FRAME AND MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EAST
COAST. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE BELIEVE THAT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL REACH SO CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NOW.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM RADIATING OUT OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. 850 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SET UP OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
850 MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -14C AND WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
HUMIDITY AS DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN DROPPING DEWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY REACHING ABOUT 20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...ANTICIPATE RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO LOW 50S. A FEW SITES COULD EVEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CT VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS
* MORE HUMID SAT WITH SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE
* TREND TOWARD COOLER/LESS HUMID WEATHER SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

DRY/QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THU WITH HIGH PRES AND A DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS OF 80-
85...COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES...HOWEVER DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S WILL PROVIDE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

BY FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRIEFLY BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S COMBINED WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW PTS CLIMB FROM
THE 50S INTO THE 60S. THUS A WARM AND HUMID DAY FRIDAY.

ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z GEFS AND NEW 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST
JET DYNAMICS/BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI FROM A MODEL BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE.
HENCE MOST OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY RI AND EASTERN MA MAY REMAIN DRY
FRI.

SATURDAY...

ALL DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC /12Z GEFS AND 12Z ECENS/ GUIDANCE
SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION SAT. TEMPS ARE
PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 80S SAT ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70 SO THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THE 12Z GEFS
SUGGEST A 30-40% PROBABILITY OF UP TO 1200 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS
COMBINED WITH MODEST JET DYNAMICS/SHEAR AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
EXPECTING A RISK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS
GIVEN THE PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE.

SUNDAY...

LIKELY OUR TRANSITION DAY AS BOTH ENSEMBLES /12Z ECENS AND GEFS/
SUGGEST FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE COAST SUN MORNING. THUS
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH COAST WITH A TREND
TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FROM NW TO SE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

SHOULD BE DRIER...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR OFFSHORE THIS
BOUNDARY GETS. THUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY LURK
JUST OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS.

THROUGH 00Z...SCT TSRA NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH ISO TSRA SOUTH OF
THE PIKE. ANTICIPATE BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS TIL ABOUT
22Z.

TONIGHT...A LULL IN ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z. BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WITH ISO THUNDER MOVES THROUGH AFTER 03/04Z. THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH BRIEF LOWERING IN CIG HEIGHTS.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG IN CT VALLEY WED NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY...ANY MVFR ALONG SOUTH COAST SHOULD TREND TOWARD VFR WITH
POTENTIAL SHOWERS MOVING OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
SW FLOW BEGINS TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY MIDNIGHT LASTING TIL ABOUT 3AM. SEAS
MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTH OCEAN WATERS BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING A SCA. OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY
LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDS LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE
BOATING WEATHER. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SW WIND WAVES DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS
INCREASING AFTER SUNSET.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

SUNDAY...FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE SLOWLY BUT SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BOSTON LOGAN AIRPORT REACHED 93 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE IN BOSTON SO FAR THIS SUMMER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022038
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
438 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINING SOME SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. DRIER BUT WARM WEATHER FOLLOWS THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS BY NEXT SUNDAY AND MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL LIKE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO
GROW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTING NOTE...AFTER THE STORMS PASS
MANY SITES DROP DOWN INTO THE MID-70F FOR TEMPS. BUT BECAUSE OF HOW
JUICY AND TROPICAL THE AIRMASS IS THEY BOUNCE RIGHT BACK UP TO 90F
WITHIN AN HOUR. ASIDE FROM A FEW ISO THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A MOSTLY QUIET EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND 02-04Z AND
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 10-12Z. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION PER THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMICS
OUT AHEAD OF IT IN WESTERN CWA`S. BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE
REGION A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LOSS SO WE MAY SEE DYING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER SOME MODELS...ESP THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE LINGERING BY THE TIME THE FRONT APPROACHES.
ON TOP OF THE POSSIBLE INSTABILITY...850MB LLJ DOES INCREASE AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AS WELL. IN
FACT...GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 25KTS...BUT IT
IS THE 0-1 KM SHEAR THAT INCREASES TO 30-40KTS. LASTLY K-INDEX PLUME
MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME GIVING THE REGION THE
MOISTURE IT NEEDS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.

THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT ALL THE INGREDIENT MENTIONED ABOVE MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS A SEVERE STORM AS THE FRONT MOVES THE
REGION. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS IS AN OVERNIGHT EVENT WHICH IS NOT IN
THE NORTHEAST FAVOR PER CLIMO...BUT CONDITIONS DO SHOW THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LASTLY...EVEN THOUGH THE REGION DID SEE
SOME ACTION TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE DID BOUNCE BACK VERY WELL AFTER
THE STORMS PASSED.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE K-INDEX VALUE AS WELL AS THE
INSTABILITY DO DROP AFTER 06Z SO THAT THE CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION
TO OCCUR DISSIPATES SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT WILL FRAGMENT AND BECOME VERY ISO IN
NATURE BY THIS TIME FRAME AND MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EAST
COAST. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE BELIEVE THAT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL REACH SO CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NOW.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM RADIATING OUT OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. 850 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SET UP OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
850 MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -14C AND WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
HUMIDITY AS DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN DROPPING DEWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY REACHING ABOUT 20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...ANTICIPATE RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO LOW 50S. A FEW SITES COULD EVEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CT VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH VERY WARM AFTERNOON/S
* HUMID WITH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE SAT
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID SUN INTO MON

DETAILS:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE
50S...TO LOWER 60S.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH WARM
AFTERNOON/S...PARTICULARLY BY FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL UP
INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY...BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE IN CHECK.  AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS REACH +16C
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE.

SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND LIKELY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  NOT EXPECTING THE
ENTIRE DAY TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT APPEARS ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION.  PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN AND VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN.
WHILE MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAY...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO WORK
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A COUPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  FOR NOW MOST OF
THE MODELS KEEP THEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND THAT WILL BE SHOWN IN OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST.   HOWEVER...
THERE CERTAINLY IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THAT ONE OF THEM ENDS
UP FURTHER NORTH AND WE END UP WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS.

THROUGH 00Z...SCT TSRA NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH ISO TSRA SOUTH OF
THE PIKE. ANTICIPATE BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS TIL ABOUT
22Z.

TONIGHT...A LULL IN ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z. BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WITH ISO THUNDER MOVES THROUGH AFTER 03/04Z. THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH BRIEF LOWERING IN CIG HEIGHTS.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG IN CT VALLEY WED NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
SW FLOW BEGINS TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY MIDNIGHT LASTING TIL ABOUT 3AM. SEAS
MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTH OCEAN WATERS BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING A SCA. OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY
LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  GOOD
VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE BOATING WEATHER.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT
MAY BECOME CHOPPY ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

BOSTON LOGAN AIRPORT REACHED 93 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE IN BOSTON SO FAR THIS SUMMER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022038
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
438 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINING SOME SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. DRIER BUT WARM WEATHER FOLLOWS THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS BY NEXT SUNDAY AND MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL LIKE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO
GROW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTING NOTE...AFTER THE STORMS PASS
MANY SITES DROP DOWN INTO THE MID-70F FOR TEMPS. BUT BECAUSE OF HOW
JUICY AND TROPICAL THE AIRMASS IS THEY BOUNCE RIGHT BACK UP TO 90F
WITHIN AN HOUR. ASIDE FROM A FEW ISO THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A MOSTLY QUIET EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND 02-04Z AND
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 10-12Z. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION PER THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMICS
OUT AHEAD OF IT IN WESTERN CWA`S. BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE
REGION A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LOSS SO WE MAY SEE DYING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER SOME MODELS...ESP THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE LINGERING BY THE TIME THE FRONT APPROACHES.
ON TOP OF THE POSSIBLE INSTABILITY...850MB LLJ DOES INCREASE AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AS WELL. IN
FACT...GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 25KTS...BUT IT
IS THE 0-1 KM SHEAR THAT INCREASES TO 30-40KTS. LASTLY K-INDEX PLUME
MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME GIVING THE REGION THE
MOISTURE IT NEEDS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.

THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT ALL THE INGREDIENT MENTIONED ABOVE MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS A SEVERE STORM AS THE FRONT MOVES THE
REGION. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS IS AN OVERNIGHT EVENT WHICH IS NOT IN
THE NORTHEAST FAVOR PER CLIMO...BUT CONDITIONS DO SHOW THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LASTLY...EVEN THOUGH THE REGION DID SEE
SOME ACTION TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE DID BOUNCE BACK VERY WELL AFTER
THE STORMS PASSED.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE K-INDEX VALUE AS WELL AS THE
INSTABILITY DO DROP AFTER 06Z SO THAT THE CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION
TO OCCUR DISSIPATES SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT WILL FRAGMENT AND BECOME VERY ISO IN
NATURE BY THIS TIME FRAME AND MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EAST
COAST. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE BELIEVE THAT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL REACH SO CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NOW.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM RADIATING OUT OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. 850 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SET UP OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
850 MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -14C AND WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
HUMIDITY AS DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN DROPPING DEWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY REACHING ABOUT 20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...ANTICIPATE RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO LOW 50S. A FEW SITES COULD EVEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CT VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH VERY WARM AFTERNOON/S
* HUMID WITH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE SAT
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID SUN INTO MON

DETAILS:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE
50S...TO LOWER 60S.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH WARM
AFTERNOON/S...PARTICULARLY BY FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL UP
INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY...BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE IN CHECK.  AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS REACH +16C
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE.

SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND LIKELY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  NOT EXPECTING THE
ENTIRE DAY TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT APPEARS ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION.  PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN AND VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN.
WHILE MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAY...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO WORK
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A COUPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  FOR NOW MOST OF
THE MODELS KEEP THEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND THAT WILL BE SHOWN IN OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST.   HOWEVER...
THERE CERTAINLY IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THAT ONE OF THEM ENDS
UP FURTHER NORTH AND WE END UP WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS.

THROUGH 00Z...SCT TSRA NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH ISO TSRA SOUTH OF
THE PIKE. ANTICIPATE BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS TIL ABOUT
22Z.

TONIGHT...A LULL IN ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z. BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WITH ISO THUNDER MOVES THROUGH AFTER 03/04Z. THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH BRIEF LOWERING IN CIG HEIGHTS.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG IN CT VALLEY WED NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
SW FLOW BEGINS TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY MIDNIGHT LASTING TIL ABOUT 3AM. SEAS
MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTH OCEAN WATERS BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING A SCA. OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY
LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  GOOD
VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE BOATING WEATHER.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT
MAY BECOME CHOPPY ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

BOSTON LOGAN AIRPORT REACHED 93 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE IN BOSTON SO FAR THIS SUMMER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022038
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
438 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINING SOME SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. DRIER BUT WARM WEATHER FOLLOWS THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS BY NEXT SUNDAY AND MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL LIKE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO
GROW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTING NOTE...AFTER THE STORMS PASS
MANY SITES DROP DOWN INTO THE MID-70F FOR TEMPS. BUT BECAUSE OF HOW
JUICY AND TROPICAL THE AIRMASS IS THEY BOUNCE RIGHT BACK UP TO 90F
WITHIN AN HOUR. ASIDE FROM A FEW ISO THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A MOSTLY QUIET EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND 02-04Z AND
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 10-12Z. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION PER THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMICS
OUT AHEAD OF IT IN WESTERN CWA`S. BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE
REGION A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LOSS SO WE MAY SEE DYING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER SOME MODELS...ESP THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE LINGERING BY THE TIME THE FRONT APPROACHES.
ON TOP OF THE POSSIBLE INSTABILITY...850MB LLJ DOES INCREASE AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AS WELL. IN
FACT...GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 25KTS...BUT IT
IS THE 0-1 KM SHEAR THAT INCREASES TO 30-40KTS. LASTLY K-INDEX PLUME
MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME GIVING THE REGION THE
MOISTURE IT NEEDS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.

THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT ALL THE INGREDIENT MENTIONED ABOVE MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS A SEVERE STORM AS THE FRONT MOVES THE
REGION. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS IS AN OVERNIGHT EVENT WHICH IS NOT IN
THE NORTHEAST FAVOR PER CLIMO...BUT CONDITIONS DO SHOW THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LASTLY...EVEN THOUGH THE REGION DID SEE
SOME ACTION TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE DID BOUNCE BACK VERY WELL AFTER
THE STORMS PASSED.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE K-INDEX VALUE AS WELL AS THE
INSTABILITY DO DROP AFTER 06Z SO THAT THE CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION
TO OCCUR DISSIPATES SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT WILL FRAGMENT AND BECOME VERY ISO IN
NATURE BY THIS TIME FRAME AND MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EAST
COAST. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE BELIEVE THAT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL REACH SO CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NOW.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM RADIATING OUT OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. 850 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SET UP OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
850 MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -14C AND WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
HUMIDITY AS DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN DROPPING DEWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY REACHING ABOUT 20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...ANTICIPATE RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO LOW 50S. A FEW SITES COULD EVEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CT VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH VERY WARM AFTERNOON/S
* HUMID WITH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE SAT
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID SUN INTO MON

DETAILS:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE
50S...TO LOWER 60S.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH WARM
AFTERNOON/S...PARTICULARLY BY FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL UP
INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY...BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE IN CHECK.  AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS REACH +16C
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE.

SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND LIKELY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  NOT EXPECTING THE
ENTIRE DAY TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT APPEARS ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION.  PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN AND VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN.
WHILE MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAY...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO WORK
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A COUPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  FOR NOW MOST OF
THE MODELS KEEP THEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND THAT WILL BE SHOWN IN OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST.   HOWEVER...
THERE CERTAINLY IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THAT ONE OF THEM ENDS
UP FURTHER NORTH AND WE END UP WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS.

THROUGH 00Z...SCT TSRA NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH ISO TSRA SOUTH OF
THE PIKE. ANTICIPATE BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS TIL ABOUT
22Z.

TONIGHT...A LULL IN ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z. BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WITH ISO THUNDER MOVES THROUGH AFTER 03/04Z. THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH BRIEF LOWERING IN CIG HEIGHTS.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG IN CT VALLEY WED NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
SW FLOW BEGINS TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY MIDNIGHT LASTING TIL ABOUT 3AM. SEAS
MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTH OCEAN WATERS BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING A SCA. OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY
LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  GOOD
VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE BOATING WEATHER.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT
MAY BECOME CHOPPY ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

BOSTON LOGAN AIRPORT REACHED 93 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE IN BOSTON SO FAR THIS SUMMER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022038
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
438 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINING SOME SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. DRIER BUT WARM WEATHER FOLLOWS THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS BY NEXT SUNDAY AND MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL LIKE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO
GROW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTING NOTE...AFTER THE STORMS PASS
MANY SITES DROP DOWN INTO THE MID-70F FOR TEMPS. BUT BECAUSE OF HOW
JUICY AND TROPICAL THE AIRMASS IS THEY BOUNCE RIGHT BACK UP TO 90F
WITHIN AN HOUR. ASIDE FROM A FEW ISO THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A MOSTLY QUIET EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND 02-04Z AND
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 10-12Z. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION PER THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMICS
OUT AHEAD OF IT IN WESTERN CWA`S. BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE
REGION A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LOSS SO WE MAY SEE DYING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER SOME MODELS...ESP THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF CAPE LINGERING BY THE TIME THE FRONT APPROACHES.
ON TOP OF THE POSSIBLE INSTABILITY...850MB LLJ DOES INCREASE AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AS WELL. IN
FACT...GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 25KTS...BUT IT
IS THE 0-1 KM SHEAR THAT INCREASES TO 30-40KTS. LASTLY K-INDEX PLUME
MOVES OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME GIVING THE REGION THE
MOISTURE IT NEEDS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.

THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT ALL THE INGREDIENT MENTIONED ABOVE MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS A SEVERE STORM AS THE FRONT MOVES THE
REGION. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS IS AN OVERNIGHT EVENT WHICH IS NOT IN
THE NORTHEAST FAVOR PER CLIMO...BUT CONDITIONS DO SHOW THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LASTLY...EVEN THOUGH THE REGION DID SEE
SOME ACTION TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE DID BOUNCE BACK VERY WELL AFTER
THE STORMS PASSED.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE K-INDEX VALUE AS WELL AS THE
INSTABILITY DO DROP AFTER 06Z SO THAT THE CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION
TO OCCUR DISSIPATES SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT WILL FRAGMENT AND BECOME VERY ISO IN
NATURE BY THIS TIME FRAME AND MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE EAST
COAST. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE BELIEVE THAT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL REACH SO CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NOW.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM RADIATING OUT OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH AS WELL. 850 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SET UP OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR BOTH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
850 MB TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -14C AND WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
HUMIDITY AS DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN DROPPING DEWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY REACHING ABOUT 20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...ANTICIPATE RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO LOW 50S. A FEW SITES COULD EVEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CT VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH VERY WARM AFTERNOON/S
* HUMID WITH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE SAT
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID SUN INTO MON

DETAILS:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE
50S...TO LOWER 60S.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH WARM
AFTERNOON/S...PARTICULARLY BY FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL UP
INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY...BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE IN CHECK.  AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS REACH +16C
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE.

SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND LIKELY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  NOT EXPECTING THE
ENTIRE DAY TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT APPEARS ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION.  PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN AND VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN.
WHILE MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAY...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO WORK
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A COUPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  FOR NOW MOST OF
THE MODELS KEEP THEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND THAT WILL BE SHOWN IN OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST.   HOWEVER...
THERE CERTAINLY IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THAT ONE OF THEM ENDS
UP FURTHER NORTH AND WE END UP WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS.

THROUGH 00Z...SCT TSRA NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH ISO TSRA SOUTH OF
THE PIKE. ANTICIPATE BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS TIL ABOUT
22Z.

TONIGHT...A LULL IN ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z. BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WITH ISO THUNDER MOVES THROUGH AFTER 03/04Z. THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH BRIEF LOWERING IN CIG HEIGHTS.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG IN CT VALLEY WED NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...
SW FLOW BEGINS TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY MIDNIGHT LASTING TIL ABOUT 3AM. SEAS
MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTH OCEAN WATERS BUT HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING A SCA. OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY
LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...QUIET BOATING WEATHER. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 15KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  GOOD
VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE BOATING WEATHER.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT
MAY BECOME CHOPPY ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

BOSTON LOGAN AIRPORT REACHED 93 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURE IN BOSTON SO FAR THIS SUMMER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 021944
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
344 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY JUST EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
HEADING TOWARD THE BERKSHIRES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. MORE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HEADED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. IT IS QUITE WARM ALOFT AND STORMS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE
TO BUILD IN ENOUGH VERTICAL EXTENT TO BECOME STRONG...AT LEAST IN
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE STORMS SEEM TO STRENGTHEN AS THEY HEAD IN
TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE...CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NY/PA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT STILL
MAKING PROGRESS EAST. SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
MESOSCALE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND
STRENGTHENS IN WESTERN NY/PA...THEN TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING. CURRENT ANALYSIS OF INSTABILITY SHOWS SMALL
REGIONS OF STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WHERE SHOWERS HAVE NOT
OCCURRED AND MOST SUNSHINE HAS OCCURRED...BUT INSTABILITY
CONSIDERABLY LESS WHERE SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT RECOVERED AS MUCH.

SO...WILL KEEP WATCHING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IN WESTERN NY/PA...AND IF/WHEN IT DEVELOPS...COULD HAVE
SOME EMBEDDED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET ENERGY STILL PREDICTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PWAT VALUES SUGGEST LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE STANDING WATER
IN LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD EXIT LATER TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT STRONG BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY WE CLEAR AND HOW MUCH OF THE DRYER AIR CAN BUILD IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

DRYING AND CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH A STEADY
WEST TO NORTH BREEZE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD
BEGIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY AND BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A LITTLE COOLER IN HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT FOLLOWED BY DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO
END THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT
WOULD FEATURE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THANKS IN PART
TO A RETURN FLOW SETUP FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
EAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE
REGION AS DEWPOINTS SURGE BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY...GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT
FOR UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ACCOMPANYING THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...GENERALLY AROUND 6.0 C/KM WHICH SHOULD ALSO HAMPER THE
POTENCY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE
0-6KM LAYER OF 30-40 KNOTS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY LOCALIZED
STRONGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD OCCUR TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SHOWERS MAY LINGER ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT CUMULUS AND
SCT-BKN CIRRUS. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE PRIOR
TO SUNSET. AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REACH THE HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 01Z/WED AND 04Z/WED. THIS FRONTAL BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED TO BE ADDED TO
THE TAF LATER. IT HAS BEEN PLACED IN KPOU AT THIS TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SOME MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY LINGER AT
KPSF/KGFL/KALB UNTIL THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES TOWARDS 12Z/WED.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE BTWN 11Z-13Z/WED.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AT 5-10 KTS SHIFTING TO THE W/SW
AT 5-12 KTS 00Z-04Z/WED WITH THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FROM W/NW AT 6-12 KTS AFTER 12Z/WED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY WILL BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT AND ON
THURSDAY 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTH TOMORROW
AT AROUND 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 20 MPH.
WILL WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 15 MPH THEN SHIFT
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION LATE IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.  AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS IS
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS NORTH
OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER
SOUTH.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A SHORT TIME.
THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM/IRL
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 021819
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
219 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DRIER
BUT WARM WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HUMIDITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY
SATURDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS BY NEXT SUNDAY AND
MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

230 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN A REGION WITH
HIGH K INDEX VALUES. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
ALONG A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT IS PASSING THROUGH ALB REGION
CURRENTLY PER MSAS OBS. SURFACE CAPE VALUES ARE UP TO 3000 J/KG
SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY WEAK BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S CANNOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE SPIN UP AS THERE COULD BE MESOSCALE
SHEAR. THERE IS SOME ROTATION WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS. BIGGEST
CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE
2 INCHES. SMALL HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE HIGH SURFACE
TEMPS...THE HAIL WILL MELT AS IT FALLS TO THE SURFACE. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WET MICROBURST AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE W...WITH
TIMING GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY GUIDANCE. EXPECT IT TO BE IN
E NY BY 00Z...CENTRAL BOX CWA BY 06Z AND THEN OFFSHORE BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION /POTENTIALLY
STRONG/ ACROSS ERN NY BY ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING. INITIALLY...THE
BEST LLJ ENERGY WILL BE SHIFTING NNE SUGGESTING SLOW E
PROGRESSION...SO SUSPECT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AS LATE AS 03Z FOR ANY
OF THIS CONVECTION TO ARRIVE IN W MA/CT AND SW NH. THE KEY IS HOW
MUCH OF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER INTO THE BOX CWA GIVEN THAT BY
03Z...ALMOST 3 HOURS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT SFC HEATING WILL HAVE
ELAPSED. DO NOTE THAT AS IT APPROACHES WITH THE COLD FRONT...THERE
IS AN INCREASE LLJ ENERGY TO ABOUT 35-40 KT AT H85. THEREFORE...30
KT OF 0-3 KM SHEAR AND NEARLY 40 KT OF 0-6KM ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS
CONVECTION APPROACHES. REGARDING SFC CONDITIONS...DO NOTE A
POCKET OF HELICITY NEAR 100 AS WELL. HOWEVER...WILL BE GRADUALLY
LOSING THE NEAR 1000-1200J/KG OF SFC CAPE WITH DIURNAL
STABILIZATION. THEREFORE...IT/S A BALANCING ACT BETWEEN THE
STABILIZATION OF THE COLUMN AND THE INCREASE IN LOCALIZED SHEAR.
DO FEEL THAT THE GUIDANCE SHIFTING QPF OUT OF THE REGION IS LIKELY
TOO DRY ESPECIALLY IN THE W HALF OF THE REGION. FEEL THAT
MAINTAINING THE THREAT FOR T-STORMS INTO AT LEAST 03-06Z IS
WARRANTED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
IS NOTED GIVEN THE SHEAR...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE GIVEN STABILIZATION. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN WORDING FOR HEAVY RAIN...AS HIGH PWATS COULD
STILL PROMOTE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ALL THIS THINKING
COINCIDES NICELY WITH LATEST SPC DAY 1.

OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN/THUNDER POTENTIAL...MAY NEED TO WATCH
ESPECIALLY E AREAS FOR THE RETURN OF SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS THANKS TO DWPTS HOLDING NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
MINS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WARM AS THE COOLER AIR WILL LAG THE
FRONT UNTIL MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE.

WED...
RAPID IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING THE FRONT THANKS TO DRY AIR MOVING IN.
WILL LIKELY SEE DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. THE
COLUMN AS A WHOLE IS DRY ALSO...SO AFTER LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. H85 TEMPS
STILL REMAIN CLOSE TO +13C...SO HIGHS ARE LIKELY STILL TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH VERY WARM AFTERNOON/S
* HUMID WITH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE SAT
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID SUN INTO MON

DETAILS:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE
50S...TO LOWER 60S.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH WARM
AFTERNOON/S...PARTICULARLY BY FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL UP
INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY...BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE IN CHECK.  AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS REACH +16C
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE.

SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND LIKELY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  NOT EXPECTING THE
ENTIRE DAY TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT APPEARS ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION.  PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN AND VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN.
WHILE MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAY...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO WORK
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A COUPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  FOR NOW MOST OF
THE MODELS KEEP THEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND THAT WILL BE SHOWN IN OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST.   HOWEVER...
THERE CERTAINLY IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THAT ONE OF THEM ENDS
UP FURTHER NORTH AND WE END UP WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS.

THROUGH 00Z...SCT TSRA NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH ISO TSRA SOUTH OF
THE PIKE. ANTICIPATE BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS TIL ABOUT
22Z.

TONIGHT...A LULL IN ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z. BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WITH ISO THUNDER MOVES THROUGH AFTER 03/04Z. THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH BRIEF LOWERING IN CIG HEIGHTS.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG IN CT VALLEY WED NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY.

SW FLOW CONTINUES TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE SHORELINES OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND CONTINUE IN THIS
DIRECTION INTO WED FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MAY APPROACH
5 FT ON THE S OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE DAY ON WED.
OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  GOOD
VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE BOATING WEATHER.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT
MAY BECOME CHOPPY ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE BOURNE/HYANNIS NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...KEC-73...
BROADCASTING ON 162.550 MHZ...CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL
OUTAGES. THE TECHNICAL ISSUES ARE BEING WORKED ON PRESENTLY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 021819
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
219 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DRIER
BUT WARM WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HUMIDITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY
SATURDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS BY NEXT SUNDAY AND
MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

230 PM UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN A REGION WITH
HIGH K INDEX VALUES. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
ALONG A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT IS PASSING THROUGH ALB REGION
CURRENTLY PER MSAS OBS. SURFACE CAPE VALUES ARE UP TO 3000 J/KG
SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY WEAK BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S CANNOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE SPIN UP AS THERE COULD BE MESOSCALE
SHEAR. THERE IS SOME ROTATION WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS. BIGGEST
CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE
2 INCHES. SMALL HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE HIGH SURFACE
TEMPS...THE HAIL WILL MELT AS IT FALLS TO THE SURFACE. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WET MICROBURST AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE W...WITH
TIMING GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY GUIDANCE. EXPECT IT TO BE IN
E NY BY 00Z...CENTRAL BOX CWA BY 06Z AND THEN OFFSHORE BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION /POTENTIALLY
STRONG/ ACROSS ERN NY BY ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING. INITIALLY...THE
BEST LLJ ENERGY WILL BE SHIFTING NNE SUGGESTING SLOW E
PROGRESSION...SO SUSPECT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AS LATE AS 03Z FOR ANY
OF THIS CONVECTION TO ARRIVE IN W MA/CT AND SW NH. THE KEY IS HOW
MUCH OF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER INTO THE BOX CWA GIVEN THAT BY
03Z...ALMOST 3 HOURS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT SFC HEATING WILL HAVE
ELAPSED. DO NOTE THAT AS IT APPROACHES WITH THE COLD FRONT...THERE
IS AN INCREASE LLJ ENERGY TO ABOUT 35-40 KT AT H85. THEREFORE...30
KT OF 0-3 KM SHEAR AND NEARLY 40 KT OF 0-6KM ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS
CONVECTION APPROACHES. REGARDING SFC CONDITIONS...DO NOTE A
POCKET OF HELICITY NEAR 100 AS WELL. HOWEVER...WILL BE GRADUALLY
LOSING THE NEAR 1000-1200J/KG OF SFC CAPE WITH DIURNAL
STABILIZATION. THEREFORE...IT/S A BALANCING ACT BETWEEN THE
STABILIZATION OF THE COLUMN AND THE INCREASE IN LOCALIZED SHEAR.
DO FEEL THAT THE GUIDANCE SHIFTING QPF OUT OF THE REGION IS LIKELY
TOO DRY ESPECIALLY IN THE W HALF OF THE REGION. FEEL THAT
MAINTAINING THE THREAT FOR T-STORMS INTO AT LEAST 03-06Z IS
WARRANTED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
IS NOTED GIVEN THE SHEAR...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE GIVEN STABILIZATION. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN WORDING FOR HEAVY RAIN...AS HIGH PWATS COULD
STILL PROMOTE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ALL THIS THINKING
COINCIDES NICELY WITH LATEST SPC DAY 1.

OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN/THUNDER POTENTIAL...MAY NEED TO WATCH
ESPECIALLY E AREAS FOR THE RETURN OF SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS THANKS TO DWPTS HOLDING NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
MINS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WARM AS THE COOLER AIR WILL LAG THE
FRONT UNTIL MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE.

WED...
RAPID IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING THE FRONT THANKS TO DRY AIR MOVING IN.
WILL LIKELY SEE DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. THE
COLUMN AS A WHOLE IS DRY ALSO...SO AFTER LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. H85 TEMPS
STILL REMAIN CLOSE TO +13C...SO HIGHS ARE LIKELY STILL TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH VERY WARM AFTERNOON/S
* HUMID WITH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE SAT
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID SUN INTO MON

DETAILS:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE
50S...TO LOWER 60S.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH WARM
AFTERNOON/S...PARTICULARLY BY FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL UP
INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY...BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE IN CHECK.  AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS REACH +16C
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE.

SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND LIKELY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  NOT EXPECTING THE
ENTIRE DAY TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT APPEARS ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION.  PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN AND VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN.
WHILE MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAY...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO WORK
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A COUPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  FOR NOW MOST OF
THE MODELS KEEP THEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND THAT WILL BE SHOWN IN OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST.   HOWEVER...
THERE CERTAINLY IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THAT ONE OF THEM ENDS
UP FURTHER NORTH AND WE END UP WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS.

THROUGH 00Z...SCT TSRA NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH ISO TSRA SOUTH OF
THE PIKE. ANTICIPATE BRIEF LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS TIL ABOUT
22Z.

TONIGHT...A LULL IN ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z. BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WITH ISO THUNDER MOVES THROUGH AFTER 03/04Z. THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH BRIEF LOWERING IN CIG HEIGHTS.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG IN CT VALLEY WED NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY.

SW FLOW CONTINUES TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE SHORELINES OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND CONTINUE IN THIS
DIRECTION INTO WED FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MAY APPROACH
5 FT ON THE S OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE DAY ON WED.
OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  GOOD
VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE BOATING WEATHER.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT
MAY BECOME CHOPPY ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE BOURNE/HYANNIS NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...KEC-73...
BROADCASTING ON 162.550 MHZ...CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL
OUTAGES. THE TECHNICAL ISSUES ARE BEING WORKED ON PRESENTLY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KALY 021803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
203 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXITING...BUT MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS TRACKING INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND HEADING TOWARD THE
HELDERBERGS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SPREADING EAST NOW AND EVEN
THOUGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE IN SOME AREAS...
SHOULD RISE TO NEAR FORECASTED LEVELS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING ARE IN THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WHERE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO FORM AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...RAIN CHANCES AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...UNTIL NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND
CAN REFINE FORECAST LATER BASED ON NEWER DATA. HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RAIN SHOULD END TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT CUMULUS AND
SCT-BKN CIRRUS. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE PRIOR
TO SUNSET. AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REACH THE HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 01Z/WED AND 04Z/WED. THIS FRONTAL BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED TO BE ADDED TO
THE TAF LATER. IT HAS BEEN PLACED IN KPOU AT THIS TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SOME MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY LINGER AT
KPSF/KGFL/KALB UNTIL THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES TOWARDS 12Z/WED.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE BTWN 11Z-13Z/WED.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW AT 5-10 KTS SHIFTING TO THE W/SW
AT 5-12 KTS 00Z-04Z/WED WITH THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FROM W/NW AT 6-12 KTS AFTER 12Z/WED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 021656
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1256 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXITING...BUT MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS TRACKING INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND HEADING TOWARD THE
HELDERBERGS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SPREADING EAST NOW AND EVEN
THOUGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE IN SOME AREAS...
SHOULD RISE TO NEAR FORECASTED LEVELS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING ARE IN THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WHERE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO FORM AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...RAIN CHANCES AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...UNTIL NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND
CAN REFINE FORECAST LATER BASED ON NEWER DATA. HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RAIN SHOULD END TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG/STRATUS AT KGFL/KPSF WILL BE GONE BY 13Z...
OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO
TERMINALS...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT KALB BTWN 12Z-16Z.


BEGINNING 21Z TO 23Z HAVE FORECASTED A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE
THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT
4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 021656
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1256 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXITING...BUT MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS TRACKING INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND HEADING TOWARD THE
HELDERBERGS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SPREADING EAST NOW AND EVEN
THOUGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE IN SOME AREAS...
SHOULD RISE TO NEAR FORECASTED LEVELS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING ARE IN THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WHERE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO FORM AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...RAIN CHANCES AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...UNTIL NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND
CAN REFINE FORECAST LATER BASED ON NEWER DATA. HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RAIN SHOULD END TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG/STRATUS AT KGFL/KPSF WILL BE GONE BY 13Z...
OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO
TERMINALS...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT KALB BTWN 12Z-16Z.


BEGINNING 21Z TO 23Z HAVE FORECASTED A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE
THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT
4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 021408
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DRIER
BUT WARM WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HUMIDITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY
SATURDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS BY NEXT SUNDAY AND
MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1000 AM UPDATE...

DENSE FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST HAS ERODED AWAY PER LATEST VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH PER WEBCAMS YOU CAN STILL SEE IT
HUGGING THE SOUTH COAST JUST OFFSHORE. WHILE MVY HAS INCREASED TO
ABOVE 1SM...NANTUCKET IS STILL SOCKED IN WITH DENSE FOG. THEREFORE
HAVE EXTENDED THE ADV FOR JUST NANTUCKET UNTIL NOON TODAY.
OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISO TO
SCT SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPS
WARMING WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EXPECT PLENTY OF MIXING THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH
TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE THE MERRIMACK AND CT RIVER
VALLEYS. HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE. TROPICAL
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL...WHERE SFC DWPTS AROUND 70F ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER A COLUMN WHICH IS SUPPORTING PWATS
NEAR 2.0 INCHES.

GIVEN THE HOT HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...A FEW AIRMASS-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS POP THIS AFTERNOON THANKS THE SFC HEATING
ALONE /THERE IS A LACK OF OTHER LIFT UNTIL PRE FRONTAL TROF ARRIVES
AFTER 03Z/. IN FACT EVEN UNDER RELATIVELY MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...SB  CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000J/KG AND MU CAPES AROUND 1000-
1500J/KG ARE POSSIBLE.  THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DISAGREE ON
AREAL EXTENT AND LOCATIONS.  THAT CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TROPICAL
AIRMASS WITH LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING.

GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR. MOVEMENT WILL ALSO
BE SLOW...BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE SCT AT BEST...SO THERE IS THE
THREAT FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD.  PRIMARY
CONCERN IS FOR URBANIZED AREAS.  DURING THE DAY...LLJ AND THEREFORE
SHEAR IS LOW SO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN 70 DEWPOINTS CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WET MICROBURST ALTHOUGH THATS A LOW PROBABILITY.

SHOULD THEN SEE THE CONVECTION DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING...UNTIL THE
COLD FRONTAL CONVECTION ARRIVES AFTER 02 OR 03Z IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES...LIKELY IN A WEAKENED STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE W...WITH
TIMING GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY GUIDANCE. EXPECT IT TO BE IN
E NY BY 00Z...CENTRAL BOX CWA BY 06Z AND THEN OFFSHORE BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION /POTENTIALLY
STRONG/ ACROSS ERN NY BY ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING. INITIALLY...THE
BEST LLJ ENERGY WILL BE SHIFTING NNE SUGGESTING SLOW E
PROGRESSION...SO SUSPECT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AS LATE AS 03Z FOR ANY
OF THIS CONVECTION TO ARRIVE IN W MA/CT AND SW NH. THE KEY IS HOW
MUCH OF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER INTO THE BOX CWA GIVEN THAT BY
03Z...ALMOST 3 HOURS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT SFC HEATING WILL HAVE
ELAPSED. DO NOTE THAT AS IT APPROACHES WITH THE COLD FRONT...THERE
IS AN INCREASE LLJ ENERGY TO ABOUT 35-40 KT AT H85. THEREFORE...30
KT OF 0-3 KM SHEAR AND NEARLY 40 KT OF 0-6KM ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS
CONVECTION APPROACHES. REGARDING SFC CONDITIONS...DO NOTE A
POCKET OF HELICITY NEAR 100 AS WELL. HOWEVER...WILL BE GRADUALLY
LOSING THE NEAR 1000-1200J/KG OF SFC CAPE WITH DIURNAL
STABILIZATION. THEREFORE...IT/S A BALANCING ACT BETWEEN THE
STABILIZATION OF THE COLUMN AND THE INCREASE IN LOCALIZED SHEAR.
DO FEEL THAT THE GUIDANCE SHIFTING QPF OUT OF THE REGION IS LIKELY
TOO DRY ESPECIALLY IN THE W HALF OF THE REGION. FEEL THAT
MAINTAINING THE THREAT FOR T-STORMS INTO AT LEAST 03-06Z IS
WARRANTED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
IS NOTED GIVEN THE SHEAR...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE GIVEN STABILIZATION. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN WORDING FOR HEAVY RAIN...AS HIGH PWATS COULD
STILL PROMOTE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ALL THIS THINKING
COINCIDES NICELY WITH LATEST SPC DAY 1.

OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN/THUNDER POTENTIAL...MAY NEED TO WATCH
ESPECIALLY E AREAS FOR THE RETURN OF SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS THANKS TO DWPTS HOLDING NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
MINS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WARM AS THE COOLER AIR WILL LAG THE
FRONT UNTIL MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE.

WED...
RAPID IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING THE FRONT THANKS TO DRY AIR MOVING IN.
WILL LIKELY SEE DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. THE
COLUMN AS A WHOLE IS DRY ALSO...SO AFTER LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. H85 TEMPS
STILL REMAIN CLOSE TO +13C...SO HIGHS ARE LIKELY STILL TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH VERY WARM AFTERNOON/S
* HUMID WITH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE SAT
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID SUN INTO MON

DETAILS:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE
50S...TO LOWER 60S.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH WARM
AFTERNOON/S...PARTICULARLY BY FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL UP
INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY...BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE IN CHECK.  AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS REACH +16C
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE.

SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND LIKELY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  NOT EXPECTING THE
ENTIRE DAY TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT APPEARS ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION.  PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN AND VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN.
WHILE MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAY...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO WORK
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A COUPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  FOR NOW MOST OF
THE MODELS KEEP THEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND THAT WILL BE SHOWN IN OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST.   HOWEVER...
THERE CERTAINLY IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THAT ONE OF THEM ENDS
UP FURTHER NORTH AND WE END UP WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

THROUGH TODAY...PATCHY FOG/IFR LINGERS ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE
ISLANDS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  THE MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOCALIZED LOWER
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE W. SOME MORE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE MA UNTIL WINDS SHIFT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

WED...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE UNLIKELY UNDER STRONGER S-
SW WINDS...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF SEA BREEZE
LATE THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY.

SW FLOW CONTINUES TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE SHORELINES OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND CONTINUE IN THIS
DIRECTION INTO WED FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MAY APPROACH
5 FT ON THE S OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE DAY ON WED.
OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  GOOD
VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE BOATING WEATHER.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT
MAY BECOME CHOPPY ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE BOURNE/HYANNIS NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...KEC-73...
BROADCASTING ON 162.550 MHZ...CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL
OUTAGES. THE TECHNICAL ISSUES ARE BEING WORKED ON PRESENTLY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
EQUIPMENT...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021408
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DRIER
BUT WARM WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HUMIDITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY
SATURDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS BY NEXT SUNDAY AND
MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1000 AM UPDATE...

DENSE FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST HAS ERODED AWAY PER LATEST VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH PER WEBCAMS YOU CAN STILL SEE IT
HUGGING THE SOUTH COAST JUST OFFSHORE. WHILE MVY HAS INCREASED TO
ABOVE 1SM...NANTUCKET IS STILL SOCKED IN WITH DENSE FOG. THEREFORE
HAVE EXTENDED THE ADV FOR JUST NANTUCKET UNTIL NOON TODAY.
OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISO TO
SCT SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPS
WARMING WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EXPECT PLENTY OF MIXING THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH
TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE THE MERRIMACK AND CT RIVER
VALLEYS. HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE. TROPICAL
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL...WHERE SFC DWPTS AROUND 70F ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER A COLUMN WHICH IS SUPPORTING PWATS
NEAR 2.0 INCHES.

GIVEN THE HOT HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...A FEW AIRMASS-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS POP THIS AFTERNOON THANKS THE SFC HEATING
ALONE /THERE IS A LACK OF OTHER LIFT UNTIL PRE FRONTAL TROF ARRIVES
AFTER 03Z/. IN FACT EVEN UNDER RELATIVELY MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...SB  CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000J/KG AND MU CAPES AROUND 1000-
1500J/KG ARE POSSIBLE.  THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DISAGREE ON
AREAL EXTENT AND LOCATIONS.  THAT CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TROPICAL
AIRMASS WITH LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING.

GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR. MOVEMENT WILL ALSO
BE SLOW...BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE SCT AT BEST...SO THERE IS THE
THREAT FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD.  PRIMARY
CONCERN IS FOR URBANIZED AREAS.  DURING THE DAY...LLJ AND THEREFORE
SHEAR IS LOW SO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN 70 DEWPOINTS CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WET MICROBURST ALTHOUGH THATS A LOW PROBABILITY.

SHOULD THEN SEE THE CONVECTION DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING...UNTIL THE
COLD FRONTAL CONVECTION ARRIVES AFTER 02 OR 03Z IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES...LIKELY IN A WEAKENED STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE W...WITH
TIMING GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY GUIDANCE. EXPECT IT TO BE IN
E NY BY 00Z...CENTRAL BOX CWA BY 06Z AND THEN OFFSHORE BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION /POTENTIALLY
STRONG/ ACROSS ERN NY BY ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING. INITIALLY...THE
BEST LLJ ENERGY WILL BE SHIFTING NNE SUGGESTING SLOW E
PROGRESSION...SO SUSPECT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AS LATE AS 03Z FOR ANY
OF THIS CONVECTION TO ARRIVE IN W MA/CT AND SW NH. THE KEY IS HOW
MUCH OF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER INTO THE BOX CWA GIVEN THAT BY
03Z...ALMOST 3 HOURS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT SFC HEATING WILL HAVE
ELAPSED. DO NOTE THAT AS IT APPROACHES WITH THE COLD FRONT...THERE
IS AN INCREASE LLJ ENERGY TO ABOUT 35-40 KT AT H85. THEREFORE...30
KT OF 0-3 KM SHEAR AND NEARLY 40 KT OF 0-6KM ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS
CONVECTION APPROACHES. REGARDING SFC CONDITIONS...DO NOTE A
POCKET OF HELICITY NEAR 100 AS WELL. HOWEVER...WILL BE GRADUALLY
LOSING THE NEAR 1000-1200J/KG OF SFC CAPE WITH DIURNAL
STABILIZATION. THEREFORE...IT/S A BALANCING ACT BETWEEN THE
STABILIZATION OF THE COLUMN AND THE INCREASE IN LOCALIZED SHEAR.
DO FEEL THAT THE GUIDANCE SHIFTING QPF OUT OF THE REGION IS LIKELY
TOO DRY ESPECIALLY IN THE W HALF OF THE REGION. FEEL THAT
MAINTAINING THE THREAT FOR T-STORMS INTO AT LEAST 03-06Z IS
WARRANTED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
IS NOTED GIVEN THE SHEAR...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE GIVEN STABILIZATION. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN WORDING FOR HEAVY RAIN...AS HIGH PWATS COULD
STILL PROMOTE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ALL THIS THINKING
COINCIDES NICELY WITH LATEST SPC DAY 1.

OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN/THUNDER POTENTIAL...MAY NEED TO WATCH
ESPECIALLY E AREAS FOR THE RETURN OF SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS THANKS TO DWPTS HOLDING NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
MINS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WARM AS THE COOLER AIR WILL LAG THE
FRONT UNTIL MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE.

WED...
RAPID IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING THE FRONT THANKS TO DRY AIR MOVING IN.
WILL LIKELY SEE DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. THE
COLUMN AS A WHOLE IS DRY ALSO...SO AFTER LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. H85 TEMPS
STILL REMAIN CLOSE TO +13C...SO HIGHS ARE LIKELY STILL TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH VERY WARM AFTERNOON/S
* HUMID WITH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE SAT
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID SUN INTO MON

DETAILS:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE
50S...TO LOWER 60S.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH WARM
AFTERNOON/S...PARTICULARLY BY FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL UP
INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY...BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE IN CHECK.  AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS REACH +16C
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE.

SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND LIKELY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  NOT EXPECTING THE
ENTIRE DAY TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT APPEARS ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION.  PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN AND VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN.
WHILE MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAY...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO WORK
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A COUPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  FOR NOW MOST OF
THE MODELS KEEP THEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND THAT WILL BE SHOWN IN OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST.   HOWEVER...
THERE CERTAINLY IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THAT ONE OF THEM ENDS
UP FURTHER NORTH AND WE END UP WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

THROUGH TODAY...PATCHY FOG/IFR LINGERS ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE
ISLANDS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  THE MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOCALIZED LOWER
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
WITH WINDS SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE W. SOME MORE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE MA UNTIL WINDS SHIFT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

WED...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE UNLIKELY UNDER STRONGER S-
SW WINDS...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF SEA BREEZE
LATE THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY.

SW FLOW CONTINUES TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE SHORELINES OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND CONTINUE IN THIS
DIRECTION INTO WED FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MAY APPROACH
5 FT ON THE S OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE DAY ON WED.
OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  GOOD
VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE BOATING WEATHER.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT
MAY BECOME CHOPPY ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE BOURNE/HYANNIS NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...KEC-73...
BROADCASTING ON 162.550 MHZ...CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL
OUTAGES. THE TECHNICAL ISSUES ARE BEING WORKED ON PRESENTLY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
EQUIPMENT...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 021243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
843 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 841 AM EDT...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLD SHOWERS AHEAD
OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOME SHOWERS ARE ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND MOVED THROUGH THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE
BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT. THESE SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LIMIT THE HEATING THIS MORNING. THE BETTER FORCING
FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL NOT REACH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 22Z-
00Z BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. THE FOG WAS ALSO REMOVED
FROM THE GRIDS...AND THE CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED OVER THE NRN
AND CNTRL THIRD.

THE H500 TEMP THIS MORNING IS -6C WITH KBUF -8C. THE 12Z KALB RAOB
INDICATES A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL CAP IS BETWEEN 750-650 HPA
WHICH WILL CURTAIL ANY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THREAT UNTIL THE
LATE PM/EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE MID AND UPPER 90S...SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.  HILLTOWNS
WILL HAVE APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG/STRATUS AT KGFL/KPSF WILL BE GONE BY 13Z...
OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO
TERMINALS...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT KALB BTWN 12Z-16Z.


BEGINNING 21Z TO 23Z HAVE FORECASTED A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE
THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT
4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 021243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
843 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 841 AM EDT...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLD SHOWERS AHEAD
OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOME SHOWERS ARE ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND MOVED THROUGH THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE
BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT. THESE SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LIMIT THE HEATING THIS MORNING. THE BETTER FORCING
FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL NOT REACH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 22Z-
00Z BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. THE FOG WAS ALSO REMOVED
FROM THE GRIDS...AND THE CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED OVER THE NRN
AND CNTRL THIRD.

THE H500 TEMP THIS MORNING IS -6C WITH KBUF -8C. THE 12Z KALB RAOB
INDICATES A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL CAP IS BETWEEN 750-650 HPA
WHICH WILL CURTAIL ANY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THREAT UNTIL THE
LATE PM/EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE MID AND UPPER 90S...SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.  HILLTOWNS
WILL HAVE APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG/STRATUS AT KGFL/KPSF WILL BE GONE BY 13Z...
OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO
TERMINALS...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT KALB BTWN 12Z-16Z.


BEGINNING 21Z TO 23Z HAVE FORECASTED A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE
THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT
4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 021243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
843 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 841 AM EDT...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLD SHOWERS AHEAD
OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOME SHOWERS ARE ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND MOVED THROUGH THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE
BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT. THESE SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LIMIT THE HEATING THIS MORNING. THE BETTER FORCING
FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL NOT REACH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 22Z-
00Z BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. THE FOG WAS ALSO REMOVED
FROM THE GRIDS...AND THE CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED OVER THE NRN
AND CNTRL THIRD.

THE H500 TEMP THIS MORNING IS -6C WITH KBUF -8C. THE 12Z KALB RAOB
INDICATES A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL CAP IS BETWEEN 750-650 HPA
WHICH WILL CURTAIL ANY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THREAT UNTIL THE
LATE PM/EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE MID AND UPPER 90S...SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.  HILLTOWNS
WILL HAVE APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG/STRATUS AT KGFL/KPSF WILL BE GONE BY 13Z...
OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO
TERMINALS...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT KALB BTWN 12Z-16Z.


BEGINNING 21Z TO 23Z HAVE FORECASTED A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE
THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT
4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 021243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
843 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 841 AM EDT...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLD SHOWERS AHEAD
OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR. SOME SHOWERS ARE ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND MOVED THROUGH THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE
BERKSHIRES AND SRN VT. THESE SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL LIMIT THE HEATING THIS MORNING. THE BETTER FORCING
FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL NOT REACH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 22Z-
00Z BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. THE FOG WAS ALSO REMOVED
FROM THE GRIDS...AND THE CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED OVER THE NRN
AND CNTRL THIRD.

THE H500 TEMP THIS MORNING IS -6C WITH KBUF -8C. THE 12Z KALB RAOB
INDICATES A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL CAP IS BETWEEN 750-650 HPA
WHICH WILL CURTAIL ANY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THREAT UNTIL THE
LATE PM/EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE MID AND UPPER 90S...SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.  HILLTOWNS
WILL HAVE APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG/STRATUS AT KGFL/KPSF WILL BE GONE BY 13Z...
OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO
TERMINALS...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT KALB BTWN 12Z-16Z.


BEGINNING 21Z TO 23Z HAVE FORECASTED A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE
THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT
4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 021146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
746 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...RADARS NOW SHOWING A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
WORKING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD JUST BE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR FINE TUNING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS...OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS THINKING APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON
TRACK.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

WE LOSE THE FOG LATER THIS FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG/STRATUS AT KGFL/KPSF WILL BE GONE BY 13Z...
OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO
TERMINALS...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT KALB BTWN 12Z-16Z.


BEGINNING 21Z TO 23Z HAVE FORECASTED A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE
THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT
4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 021146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
746 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...RADARS NOW SHOWING A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
WORKING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD JUST BE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR FINE TUNING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS...OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS THINKING APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON
TRACK.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

WE LOSE THE FOG LATER THIS FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG/STRATUS AT KGFL/KPSF WILL BE GONE BY 13Z...
OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO
TERMINALS...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT KALB BTWN 12Z-16Z.


BEGINNING 21Z TO 23Z HAVE FORECASTED A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE
THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT
4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS








000
FXUS61 KBOX 021107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DRIER
BUT WARM WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HUMIDITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY
SATURDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS BY NEXT SUNDAY AND
MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

705 AM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING.  OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EVEN THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE
VISIBILITIES IMPROVE BEFORE THAT TIME.  IT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST FOR
IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF MIXING THROUGH THE DAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE THE
MERRIMACK AND CT RIVER VALLEYS. HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S ARE
LIKELY ELSEWHERE.  TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL...WHERE
SFC DWPTS AROUND 70F ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER A COLUMN WHICH
IS SUPPORTING PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES.

GIVEN THE HOT HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...A FEW AIRMASS-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS POP THIS AFTERNOON THANKS THE SFC HEATING
ALONE /THERE IS A LACK OF OTHER LIFT UNTIL PRE FRONTAL TROF ARRIVES
AFTER 03Z/. IN FACT EVEN UNDER RELATIVELY MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...SB  CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000J/KG AND MU CAPES AROUND 1000-
1500J/KG ARE POSSIBLE.  THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DISAGREE ON
AREAL EXTENT AND LOCATIONS.  THAT CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TROPICAL
AIRMASS WITH LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING.

GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR. MOVEMENT WILL ALSO
BE SLOW...BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE SCT AT BEST...SO THERE IS THE
THREAT FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD.  PRIMARY
CONCERN IS FOR URBANIZED AREAS.  DURING THE DAY...LLJ AND THEREFORE
SHEAR IS LOW SO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN 70 DEWPOINTS CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WET MICROBURST ALTHOUGH THATS A LOW PROBABILITY.

SHOULD THEN SEE THE CONVECTION DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING...UNTIL THE
COLD FRONTAL CONVECTION ARRIVES AFTER 02 OR 03Z IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES...LIKELY IN A WEAKENED STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE W...WITH
TIMING GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY GUIDANCE. EXPECT IT TO BE IN
E NY BY 00Z...CENTRAL BOX CWA BY 06Z AND THEN OFFSHORE BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION /POTENTIALLY
STRONG/ ACROSS ERN NY BY ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING. INITIALLY...THE
BEST LLJ ENERGY WILL BE SHIFTING NNE SUGGESTING SLOW E
PROGRESSION...SO SUSPECT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AS LATE AS 03Z FOR ANY
OF THIS CONVECTION TO ARRIVE IN W MA/CT AND SW NH. THE KEY IS HOW
MUCH OF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER INTO THE BOX CWA GIVEN THAT BY
03Z...ALMOST 3 HOURS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT SFC HEATING WILL HAVE
ELAPSED. DO NOTE THAT AS IT APPROACHES WITH THE COLD FRONT...THERE
IS AN INCREASE LLJ ENERGY TO ABOUT 35-40 KT AT H85. THEREFORE...30
KT OF 0-3 KM SHEAR AND NEARLY 40 KT OF 0-6KM ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS
CONVECTION APPROACHES. REGARDING SFC CONDITIONS...DO NOTE A
POCKET OF HELICITY NEAR 100 AS WELL. HOWEVER...WILL BE GRADUALLY
LOSING THE NEAR 1000-1200J/KG OF SFC CAPE WITH DIURNAL
STABILIZATION. THEREFORE...IT/S A BALANCING ACT BETWEEN THE
STABILIZATION OF THE COLUMN AND THE INCREASE IN LOCALIZED SHEAR.
DO FEEL THAT THE GUIDANCE SHIFTING QPF OUT OF THE REGION IS LIKELY
TOO DRY ESPECIALLY IN THE W HALF OF THE REGION. FEEL THAT
MAINTAINING THE THREAT FOR T-STORMS INTO AT LEAST 03-06Z IS
WARRANTED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
IS NOTED GIVEN THE SHEAR...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE GIVEN STABILIZATION. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN WORDING FOR HEAVY RAIN...AS HIGH PWATS COULD
STILL PROMOTE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ALL THIS THINKING
COINCIDES NICELY WITH LATEST SPC DAY 1.

OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN/THUNDER POTENTIAL...MAY NEED TO WATCH
ESPECIALLY E AREAS FOR THE RETURN OF SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS THANKS TO DWPTS HOLDING NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
MINS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WARM AS THE COOLER AIR WILL LAG THE
FRONT UNTIL MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE.

WED...
RAPID IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING THE FRONT THANKS TO DRY AIR MOVING IN.
WILL LIKELY SEE DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. THE
COLUMN AS A WHOLE IS DRY ALSO...SO AFTER LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. H85 TEMPS
STILL REMAIN CLOSE TO +13C...SO HIGHS ARE LIKELY STILL TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH VERY WARM AFTERNOON/S
* HUMID WITH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE SAT
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID SUN INTO MON

DETAILS:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE
50S...TO LOWER 60S.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH WARM
AFTERNOON/S...PARTICULARLY BY FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL UP
INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY...BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE IN CHECK.  AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS REACH +16C
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE.

SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND LIKELY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  NOT EXPECTING THE
ENTIRE DAY TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT APPEARS ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION.  PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN AND VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN.
WHILE MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAY...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO WORK
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A COUPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  FOR NOW MOST OF
THE MODELS KEEP THEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND THAT WILL BE SHOWN IN OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST.   HOWEVER...
THERE CERTAINLY IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THAT ONE OF THEM ENDS
UP FURTHER NORTH AND WE END UP WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

THROUGH TODAY...
PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCALES.  THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG MAY HANG THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  THE MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOCALIZED LOWER
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WITH WINDS
SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE W. SOME MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE MA UNTIL WINDS SHIFT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

WED...
VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE UNLIKELY UNDER STRONGER S-
SW WINDS...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF SEA BREEZE
LATE THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY.

SW FLOW CONTINUES TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE SHORELINES OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND CONTINUE IN THIS
DIRECTION INTO WED FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MAY APPROACH
5 FT ON THE S OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE DAY ON WED.
OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  GOOD
VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE BOATING WEATHER.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT
MAY BECOME CHOPPY ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE BOURNE/HYANNIS NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...KEC-73...
BROADCASTING ON 162.550 MHZ...CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL
OUTAGES. THE TECHNICAL ISSUES ARE BEING WORKED ON PRESENTLY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ003>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
EQUIPMENT...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DRIER
BUT WARM WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HUMIDITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY
SATURDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS BY NEXT SUNDAY AND
MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

705 AM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING.  OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EVEN THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE
VISIBILITIES IMPROVE BEFORE THAT TIME.  IT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST FOR
IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF MIXING THROUGH THE DAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE THE
MERRIMACK AND CT RIVER VALLEYS. HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S ARE
LIKELY ELSEWHERE.  TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL...WHERE
SFC DWPTS AROUND 70F ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER A COLUMN WHICH
IS SUPPORTING PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES.

GIVEN THE HOT HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...A FEW AIRMASS-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS POP THIS AFTERNOON THANKS THE SFC HEATING
ALONE /THERE IS A LACK OF OTHER LIFT UNTIL PRE FRONTAL TROF ARRIVES
AFTER 03Z/. IN FACT EVEN UNDER RELATIVELY MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...SB  CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000J/KG AND MU CAPES AROUND 1000-
1500J/KG ARE POSSIBLE.  THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DISAGREE ON
AREAL EXTENT AND LOCATIONS.  THAT CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TROPICAL
AIRMASS WITH LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING.

GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR. MOVEMENT WILL ALSO
BE SLOW...BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE SCT AT BEST...SO THERE IS THE
THREAT FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD.  PRIMARY
CONCERN IS FOR URBANIZED AREAS.  DURING THE DAY...LLJ AND THEREFORE
SHEAR IS LOW SO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN 70 DEWPOINTS CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WET MICROBURST ALTHOUGH THATS A LOW PROBABILITY.

SHOULD THEN SEE THE CONVECTION DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING...UNTIL THE
COLD FRONTAL CONVECTION ARRIVES AFTER 02 OR 03Z IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES...LIKELY IN A WEAKENED STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE W...WITH
TIMING GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY GUIDANCE. EXPECT IT TO BE IN
E NY BY 00Z...CENTRAL BOX CWA BY 06Z AND THEN OFFSHORE BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION /POTENTIALLY
STRONG/ ACROSS ERN NY BY ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING. INITIALLY...THE
BEST LLJ ENERGY WILL BE SHIFTING NNE SUGGESTING SLOW E
PROGRESSION...SO SUSPECT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AS LATE AS 03Z FOR ANY
OF THIS CONVECTION TO ARRIVE IN W MA/CT AND SW NH. THE KEY IS HOW
MUCH OF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER INTO THE BOX CWA GIVEN THAT BY
03Z...ALMOST 3 HOURS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT SFC HEATING WILL HAVE
ELAPSED. DO NOTE THAT AS IT APPROACHES WITH THE COLD FRONT...THERE
IS AN INCREASE LLJ ENERGY TO ABOUT 35-40 KT AT H85. THEREFORE...30
KT OF 0-3 KM SHEAR AND NEARLY 40 KT OF 0-6KM ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS
CONVECTION APPROACHES. REGARDING SFC CONDITIONS...DO NOTE A
POCKET OF HELICITY NEAR 100 AS WELL. HOWEVER...WILL BE GRADUALLY
LOSING THE NEAR 1000-1200J/KG OF SFC CAPE WITH DIURNAL
STABILIZATION. THEREFORE...IT/S A BALANCING ACT BETWEEN THE
STABILIZATION OF THE COLUMN AND THE INCREASE IN LOCALIZED SHEAR.
DO FEEL THAT THE GUIDANCE SHIFTING QPF OUT OF THE REGION IS LIKELY
TOO DRY ESPECIALLY IN THE W HALF OF THE REGION. FEEL THAT
MAINTAINING THE THREAT FOR T-STORMS INTO AT LEAST 03-06Z IS
WARRANTED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
IS NOTED GIVEN THE SHEAR...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE GIVEN STABILIZATION. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN WORDING FOR HEAVY RAIN...AS HIGH PWATS COULD
STILL PROMOTE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ALL THIS THINKING
COINCIDES NICELY WITH LATEST SPC DAY 1.

OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN/THUNDER POTENTIAL...MAY NEED TO WATCH
ESPECIALLY E AREAS FOR THE RETURN OF SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS THANKS TO DWPTS HOLDING NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
MINS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WARM AS THE COOLER AIR WILL LAG THE
FRONT UNTIL MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE.

WED...
RAPID IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING THE FRONT THANKS TO DRY AIR MOVING IN.
WILL LIKELY SEE DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. THE
COLUMN AS A WHOLE IS DRY ALSO...SO AFTER LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. H85 TEMPS
STILL REMAIN CLOSE TO +13C...SO HIGHS ARE LIKELY STILL TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH VERY WARM AFTERNOON/S
* HUMID WITH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE SAT
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID SUN INTO MON

DETAILS:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE
50S...TO LOWER 60S.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH WARM
AFTERNOON/S...PARTICULARLY BY FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL UP
INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY...BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE IN CHECK.  AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS REACH +16C
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE.

SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND LIKELY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  NOT EXPECTING THE
ENTIRE DAY TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT APPEARS ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION.  PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN AND VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN.
WHILE MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAY...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO WORK
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A COUPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  FOR NOW MOST OF
THE MODELS KEEP THEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND THAT WILL BE SHOWN IN OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST.   HOWEVER...
THERE CERTAINLY IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THAT ONE OF THEM ENDS
UP FURTHER NORTH AND WE END UP WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

THROUGH TODAY...
PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCALES.  THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG MAY HANG THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  THE MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOCALIZED LOWER
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WITH WINDS
SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE W. SOME MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE MA UNTIL WINDS SHIFT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

WED...
VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE UNLIKELY UNDER STRONGER S-
SW WINDS...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF SEA BREEZE
LATE THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY.

SW FLOW CONTINUES TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE SHORELINES OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND CONTINUE IN THIS
DIRECTION INTO WED FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MAY APPROACH
5 FT ON THE S OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE DAY ON WED.
OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  GOOD
VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE BOATING WEATHER.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT
MAY BECOME CHOPPY ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE BOURNE/HYANNIS NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...KEC-73...
BROADCASTING ON 162.550 MHZ...CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL
OUTAGES. THE TECHNICAL ISSUES ARE BEING WORKED ON PRESENTLY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ003>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
EQUIPMENT...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 021050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DRIER
BUT WARM WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HUMIDITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY
SATURDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS BY NEXT SUNDAY AND
MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

650 AM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING.  SHOULD SEE THIS
GRADUALLY BURN OFF AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR
THAT TO HAPPEN COMPLETELY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF MIXING THROUGH THE DAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE THE
MERRIMACK AND CT RIVER VALLEYS. HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S ARE
LIKELY ELSEWHERE.  TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL...WHERE
SFC DWPTS AROUND 70F ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER A COLUMN WHICH
IS SUPPORTING PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES.

GIVEN THE HOT HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...A FEW AIRMASS-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS POP THIS AFTERNOON THANKS THE SFC HEATING
ALONE /THERE IS A LACK OF OTHER LIFT UNTIL PRE FRONTAL TROF ARRIVES
AFTER 03Z/. IN FACT EVEN UNDER RELATIVELY MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...SB  CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000J/KG AND MU CAPES AROUND 1000-
1500J/KG ARE POSSIBLE.  THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DISAGREE ON
AREAL EXTENT AND LOCATIONS.  THAT CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TROPICAL
AIRMASS WITH LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING.

GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR. MOVEMENT WILL ALSO
BE SLOW...BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE SCT AT BEST...SO THERE IS THE
THREAT FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD.  PRIMARY
CONCERN IS FOR URBANIZED AREAS.  DURING THE DAY...LLJ AND THEREFORE
SHEAR IS LOW SO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN 70 DEWPOINTS CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WET MICROBURST ALTHOUGH THATS A LOW PROBABILITY.

SHOULD THEN SEE THE CONVECTION DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING...UNTIL THE
COLD FRONTAL CONVECTION ARRIVES AFTER 02 OR 03Z IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES...LIKELY IN A WEAKENED STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE W...WITH
TIMING GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY GUIDANCE. EXPECT IT TO BE IN
E NY BY 00Z...CENTRAL BOX CWA BY 06Z AND THEN OFFSHORE BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION /POTENTIALLY
STRONG/ ACROSS ERN NY BY ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING. INITIALLY...THE
BEST LLJ ENERGY WILL BE SHIFTING NNE SUGGESTING SLOW E
PROGRESSION...SO SUSPECT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AS LATE AS 03Z FOR ANY
OF THIS CONVECTION TO ARRIVE IN W MA/CT AND SW NH. THE KEY IS HOW
MUCH OF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER INTO THE BOX CWA GIVEN THAT BY
03Z...ALMOST 3 HOURS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT SFC HEATING WILL HAVE
ELAPSED. DO NOTE THAT AS IT APPROACHES WITH THE COLD FRONT...THERE
IS AN INCREASE LLJ ENERGY TO ABOUT 35-40 KT AT H85. THEREFORE...30
KT OF 0-3 KM SHEAR AND NEARLY 40 KT OF 0-6KM ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS
CONVECTION APPROACHES. REGARDING SFC CONDITIONS...DO NOTE A
POCKET OF HELICITY NEAR 100 AS WELL. HOWEVER...WILL BE GRADUALLY
LOSING THE NEAR 1000-1200J/KG OF SFC CAPE WITH DIURNAL
STABILIZATION. THEREFORE...IT/S A BALANCING ACT BETWEEN THE
STABILIZATION OF THE COLUMN AND THE INCREASE IN LOCALIZED SHEAR.
DO FEEL THAT THE GUIDANCE SHIFTING QPF OUT OF THE REGION IS LIKELY
TOO DRY ESPECIALLY IN THE W HALF OF THE REGION. FEEL THAT
MAINTAINING THE THREAT FOR T-STORMS INTO AT LEAST 03-06Z IS
WARRANTED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
IS NOTED GIVEN THE SHEAR...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE GIVEN STABILIZATION. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN WORDING FOR HEAVY RAIN...AS HIGH PWATS COULD
STILL PROMOTE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ALL THIS THINKING
COINCIDES NICELY WITH LATEST SPC DAY 1.

OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN/THUNDER POTENTIAL...MAY NEED TO WATCH
ESPECIALLY E AREAS FOR THE RETURN OF SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS THANKS TO DWPTS HOLDING NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
MINS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WARM AS THE COOLER AIR WILL LAG THE
FRONT UNTIL MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE.

WED...
RAPID IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING THE FRONT THANKS TO DRY AIR MOVING IN.
WILL LIKELY SEE DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. THE
COLUMN AS A WHOLE IS DRY ALSO...SO AFTER LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. H85 TEMPS
STILL REMAIN CLOSE TO +13C...SO HIGHS ARE LIKELY STILL TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH VERY WARM AFTERNOON/S
* HUMID WITH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE SAT
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID SUN INTO MON

DETAILS:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE
50S...TO LOWER 60S.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH WARM
AFTERNOON/S...PARTICULARLY BY FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL UP
INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY...BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE IN CHECK.  AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS REACH +16C
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE.

SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND LIKELY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  NOT EXPECTING THE
ENTIRE DAY TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT APPEARS ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION.  PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN AND VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN.
WHILE MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAY...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO WORK
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A COUPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  FOR NOW MOST OF
THE MODELS KEEP THEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND THAT WILL BE SHOWN IN OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST.   HOWEVER...
THERE CERTAINLY IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THAT ONE OF THEM ENDS
UP FURTHER NORTH AND WE END UP WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

THROUGH TODAY...
PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCALES.  THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG MAY HANG THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  THE MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOCALIZED LOWER
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WITH WINDS
SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE W. SOME MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE MA UNTIL WINDS SHIFT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

WED...
VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE UNLIKELY UNDER STRONGER S-
SW WINDS...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF SEA BREEZE
LATE THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY.

SW FLOW CONTINUES TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE SHORELINES OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND CONTINUE IN THIS
DIRECTION INTO WED FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MAY APPROACH
5 FT ON THE S OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE DAY ON WED.
OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  GOOD
VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE BOATING WEATHER.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT
MAY BECOME CHOPPY ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE BOURNE/HYANNIS NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...KEC-73...
BROADCASTING ON 162.550 MHZ...CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL
OUTAGES. THE TECHNICAL ISSUES ARE BEING WORKED ON PRESENTLY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
EQUIPMENT...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DRIER
BUT WARM WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HUMIDITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY
SATURDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS BY NEXT SUNDAY AND
MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

650 AM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING.  SHOULD SEE THIS
GRADUALLY BURN OFF AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR
THAT TO HAPPEN COMPLETELY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF MIXING THROUGH THE DAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE THE
MERRIMACK AND CT RIVER VALLEYS. HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S ARE
LIKELY ELSEWHERE.  TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL...WHERE
SFC DWPTS AROUND 70F ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER A COLUMN WHICH
IS SUPPORTING PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES.

GIVEN THE HOT HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...A FEW AIRMASS-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS POP THIS AFTERNOON THANKS THE SFC HEATING
ALONE /THERE IS A LACK OF OTHER LIFT UNTIL PRE FRONTAL TROF ARRIVES
AFTER 03Z/. IN FACT EVEN UNDER RELATIVELY MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...SB  CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000J/KG AND MU CAPES AROUND 1000-
1500J/KG ARE POSSIBLE.  THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DISAGREE ON
AREAL EXTENT AND LOCATIONS.  THAT CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TROPICAL
AIRMASS WITH LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING.

GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR. MOVEMENT WILL ALSO
BE SLOW...BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE SCT AT BEST...SO THERE IS THE
THREAT FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD.  PRIMARY
CONCERN IS FOR URBANIZED AREAS.  DURING THE DAY...LLJ AND THEREFORE
SHEAR IS LOW SO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN 70 DEWPOINTS CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WET MICROBURST ALTHOUGH THATS A LOW PROBABILITY.

SHOULD THEN SEE THE CONVECTION DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING...UNTIL THE
COLD FRONTAL CONVECTION ARRIVES AFTER 02 OR 03Z IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES...LIKELY IN A WEAKENED STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE W...WITH
TIMING GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY GUIDANCE. EXPECT IT TO BE IN
E NY BY 00Z...CENTRAL BOX CWA BY 06Z AND THEN OFFSHORE BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION /POTENTIALLY
STRONG/ ACROSS ERN NY BY ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING. INITIALLY...THE
BEST LLJ ENERGY WILL BE SHIFTING NNE SUGGESTING SLOW E
PROGRESSION...SO SUSPECT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AS LATE AS 03Z FOR ANY
OF THIS CONVECTION TO ARRIVE IN W MA/CT AND SW NH. THE KEY IS HOW
MUCH OF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER INTO THE BOX CWA GIVEN THAT BY
03Z...ALMOST 3 HOURS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT SFC HEATING WILL HAVE
ELAPSED. DO NOTE THAT AS IT APPROACHES WITH THE COLD FRONT...THERE
IS AN INCREASE LLJ ENERGY TO ABOUT 35-40 KT AT H85. THEREFORE...30
KT OF 0-3 KM SHEAR AND NEARLY 40 KT OF 0-6KM ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS
CONVECTION APPROACHES. REGARDING SFC CONDITIONS...DO NOTE A
POCKET OF HELICITY NEAR 100 AS WELL. HOWEVER...WILL BE GRADUALLY
LOSING THE NEAR 1000-1200J/KG OF SFC CAPE WITH DIURNAL
STABILIZATION. THEREFORE...IT/S A BALANCING ACT BETWEEN THE
STABILIZATION OF THE COLUMN AND THE INCREASE IN LOCALIZED SHEAR.
DO FEEL THAT THE GUIDANCE SHIFTING QPF OUT OF THE REGION IS LIKELY
TOO DRY ESPECIALLY IN THE W HALF OF THE REGION. FEEL THAT
MAINTAINING THE THREAT FOR T-STORMS INTO AT LEAST 03-06Z IS
WARRANTED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
IS NOTED GIVEN THE SHEAR...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE GIVEN STABILIZATION. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN WORDING FOR HEAVY RAIN...AS HIGH PWATS COULD
STILL PROMOTE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ALL THIS THINKING
COINCIDES NICELY WITH LATEST SPC DAY 1.

OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN/THUNDER POTENTIAL...MAY NEED TO WATCH
ESPECIALLY E AREAS FOR THE RETURN OF SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS THANKS TO DWPTS HOLDING NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
MINS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WARM AS THE COOLER AIR WILL LAG THE
FRONT UNTIL MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE.

WED...
RAPID IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING THE FRONT THANKS TO DRY AIR MOVING IN.
WILL LIKELY SEE DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. THE
COLUMN AS A WHOLE IS DRY ALSO...SO AFTER LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. H85 TEMPS
STILL REMAIN CLOSE TO +13C...SO HIGHS ARE LIKELY STILL TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH VERY WARM AFTERNOON/S
* HUMID WITH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE SAT
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID SUN INTO MON

DETAILS:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE
50S...TO LOWER 60S.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH WARM
AFTERNOON/S...PARTICULARLY BY FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL UP
INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY...BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE IN CHECK.  AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS REACH +16C
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE.

SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND LIKELY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  NOT EXPECTING THE
ENTIRE DAY TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT APPEARS ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION.  PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN AND VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN.
WHILE MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAY...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO WORK
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A COUPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  FOR NOW MOST OF
THE MODELS KEEP THEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND THAT WILL BE SHOWN IN OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST.   HOWEVER...
THERE CERTAINLY IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THAT ONE OF THEM ENDS
UP FURTHER NORTH AND WE END UP WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

THROUGH TODAY...
PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCALES.  THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG MAY HANG THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  THE MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOCALIZED LOWER
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WITH WINDS
SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE W. SOME MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE MA UNTIL WINDS SHIFT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

WED...
VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE UNLIKELY UNDER STRONGER S-
SW WINDS...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF SEA BREEZE
LATE THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY.

SW FLOW CONTINUES TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE SHORELINES OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND CONTINUE IN THIS
DIRECTION INTO WED FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MAY APPROACH
5 FT ON THE S OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE DAY ON WED.
OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  GOOD
VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE BOATING WEATHER.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT
MAY BECOME CHOPPY ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE BOURNE/HYANNIS NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...KEC-73...
BROADCASTING ON 162.550 MHZ...CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL
OUTAGES. THE TECHNICAL ISSUES ARE BEING WORKED ON PRESENTLY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
EQUIPMENT...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DRIER
BUT WARM WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HUMIDITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY
SATURDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS BY NEXT SUNDAY AND
MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

650 AM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING.  SHOULD SEE THIS
GRADUALLY BURN OFF AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR
THAT TO HAPPEN COMPLETELY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF MIXING THROUGH THE DAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE THE
MERRIMACK AND CT RIVER VALLEYS. HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S ARE
LIKELY ELSEWHERE.  TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL...WHERE
SFC DWPTS AROUND 70F ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER A COLUMN WHICH
IS SUPPORTING PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES.

GIVEN THE HOT HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...A FEW AIRMASS-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS POP THIS AFTERNOON THANKS THE SFC HEATING
ALONE /THERE IS A LACK OF OTHER LIFT UNTIL PRE FRONTAL TROF ARRIVES
AFTER 03Z/. IN FACT EVEN UNDER RELATIVELY MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...SB  CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000J/KG AND MU CAPES AROUND 1000-
1500J/KG ARE POSSIBLE.  THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DISAGREE ON
AREAL EXTENT AND LOCATIONS.  THAT CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TROPICAL
AIRMASS WITH LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING.

GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR. MOVEMENT WILL ALSO
BE SLOW...BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE SCT AT BEST...SO THERE IS THE
THREAT FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD.  PRIMARY
CONCERN IS FOR URBANIZED AREAS.  DURING THE DAY...LLJ AND THEREFORE
SHEAR IS LOW SO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN 70 DEWPOINTS CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WET MICROBURST ALTHOUGH THATS A LOW PROBABILITY.

SHOULD THEN SEE THE CONVECTION DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING...UNTIL THE
COLD FRONTAL CONVECTION ARRIVES AFTER 02 OR 03Z IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES...LIKELY IN A WEAKENED STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE W...WITH
TIMING GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY GUIDANCE. EXPECT IT TO BE IN
E NY BY 00Z...CENTRAL BOX CWA BY 06Z AND THEN OFFSHORE BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION /POTENTIALLY
STRONG/ ACROSS ERN NY BY ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING. INITIALLY...THE
BEST LLJ ENERGY WILL BE SHIFTING NNE SUGGESTING SLOW E
PROGRESSION...SO SUSPECT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AS LATE AS 03Z FOR ANY
OF THIS CONVECTION TO ARRIVE IN W MA/CT AND SW NH. THE KEY IS HOW
MUCH OF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER INTO THE BOX CWA GIVEN THAT BY
03Z...ALMOST 3 HOURS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT SFC HEATING WILL HAVE
ELAPSED. DO NOTE THAT AS IT APPROACHES WITH THE COLD FRONT...THERE
IS AN INCREASE LLJ ENERGY TO ABOUT 35-40 KT AT H85. THEREFORE...30
KT OF 0-3 KM SHEAR AND NEARLY 40 KT OF 0-6KM ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS
CONVECTION APPROACHES. REGARDING SFC CONDITIONS...DO NOTE A
POCKET OF HELICITY NEAR 100 AS WELL. HOWEVER...WILL BE GRADUALLY
LOSING THE NEAR 1000-1200J/KG OF SFC CAPE WITH DIURNAL
STABILIZATION. THEREFORE...IT/S A BALANCING ACT BETWEEN THE
STABILIZATION OF THE COLUMN AND THE INCREASE IN LOCALIZED SHEAR.
DO FEEL THAT THE GUIDANCE SHIFTING QPF OUT OF THE REGION IS LIKELY
TOO DRY ESPECIALLY IN THE W HALF OF THE REGION. FEEL THAT
MAINTAINING THE THREAT FOR T-STORMS INTO AT LEAST 03-06Z IS
WARRANTED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
IS NOTED GIVEN THE SHEAR...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE GIVEN STABILIZATION. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN WORDING FOR HEAVY RAIN...AS HIGH PWATS COULD
STILL PROMOTE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ALL THIS THINKING
COINCIDES NICELY WITH LATEST SPC DAY 1.

OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN/THUNDER POTENTIAL...MAY NEED TO WATCH
ESPECIALLY E AREAS FOR THE RETURN OF SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS THANKS TO DWPTS HOLDING NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
MINS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WARM AS THE COOLER AIR WILL LAG THE
FRONT UNTIL MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE.

WED...
RAPID IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING THE FRONT THANKS TO DRY AIR MOVING IN.
WILL LIKELY SEE DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. THE
COLUMN AS A WHOLE IS DRY ALSO...SO AFTER LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. H85 TEMPS
STILL REMAIN CLOSE TO +13C...SO HIGHS ARE LIKELY STILL TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH VERY WARM AFTERNOON/S
* HUMID WITH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE SAT
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID SUN INTO MON

DETAILS:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE
50S...TO LOWER 60S.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH WARM
AFTERNOON/S...PARTICULARLY BY FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL UP
INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY...BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE IN CHECK.  AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS REACH +16C
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE.

SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND LIKELY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  NOT EXPECTING THE
ENTIRE DAY TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT APPEARS ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION.  PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN AND VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN.
WHILE MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAY...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO WORK
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A COUPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  FOR NOW MOST OF
THE MODELS KEEP THEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND THAT WILL BE SHOWN IN OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST.   HOWEVER...
THERE CERTAINLY IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THAT ONE OF THEM ENDS
UP FURTHER NORTH AND WE END UP WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

THROUGH TODAY...
PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCALES.  THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG MAY HANG THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  THE MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOCALIZED LOWER
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WITH WINDS
SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE W. SOME MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE MA UNTIL WINDS SHIFT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

WED...
VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE UNLIKELY UNDER STRONGER S-
SW WINDS...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF SEA BREEZE
LATE THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY.

SW FLOW CONTINUES TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE SHORELINES OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND CONTINUE IN THIS
DIRECTION INTO WED FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MAY APPROACH
5 FT ON THE S OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE DAY ON WED.
OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  GOOD
VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE BOATING WEATHER.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT
MAY BECOME CHOPPY ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE BOURNE/HYANNIS NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...KEC-73...
BROADCASTING ON 162.550 MHZ...CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL
OUTAGES. THE TECHNICAL ISSUES ARE BEING WORKED ON PRESENTLY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
EQUIPMENT...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DRIER
BUT WARM WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HUMIDITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY
SATURDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS BY NEXT SUNDAY AND
MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

650 AM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING.  SHOULD SEE THIS
GRADUALLY BURN OFF AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR
THAT TO HAPPEN COMPLETELY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF MIXING THROUGH THE DAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE THE
MERRIMACK AND CT RIVER VALLEYS. HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S ARE
LIKELY ELSEWHERE.  TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL...WHERE
SFC DWPTS AROUND 70F ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER A COLUMN WHICH
IS SUPPORTING PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES.

GIVEN THE HOT HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...A FEW AIRMASS-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS POP THIS AFTERNOON THANKS THE SFC HEATING
ALONE /THERE IS A LACK OF OTHER LIFT UNTIL PRE FRONTAL TROF ARRIVES
AFTER 03Z/. IN FACT EVEN UNDER RELATIVELY MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...SB  CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000J/KG AND MU CAPES AROUND 1000-
1500J/KG ARE POSSIBLE.  THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DISAGREE ON
AREAL EXTENT AND LOCATIONS.  THAT CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TROPICAL
AIRMASS WITH LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING.

GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR. MOVEMENT WILL ALSO
BE SLOW...BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE SCT AT BEST...SO THERE IS THE
THREAT FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD.  PRIMARY
CONCERN IS FOR URBANIZED AREAS.  DURING THE DAY...LLJ AND THEREFORE
SHEAR IS LOW SO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN 70 DEWPOINTS CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WET MICROBURST ALTHOUGH THATS A LOW PROBABILITY.

SHOULD THEN SEE THE CONVECTION DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING...UNTIL THE
COLD FRONTAL CONVECTION ARRIVES AFTER 02 OR 03Z IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES...LIKELY IN A WEAKENED STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE W...WITH
TIMING GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY GUIDANCE. EXPECT IT TO BE IN
E NY BY 00Z...CENTRAL BOX CWA BY 06Z AND THEN OFFSHORE BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION /POTENTIALLY
STRONG/ ACROSS ERN NY BY ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING. INITIALLY...THE
BEST LLJ ENERGY WILL BE SHIFTING NNE SUGGESTING SLOW E
PROGRESSION...SO SUSPECT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AS LATE AS 03Z FOR ANY
OF THIS CONVECTION TO ARRIVE IN W MA/CT AND SW NH. THE KEY IS HOW
MUCH OF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER INTO THE BOX CWA GIVEN THAT BY
03Z...ALMOST 3 HOURS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT SFC HEATING WILL HAVE
ELAPSED. DO NOTE THAT AS IT APPROACHES WITH THE COLD FRONT...THERE
IS AN INCREASE LLJ ENERGY TO ABOUT 35-40 KT AT H85. THEREFORE...30
KT OF 0-3 KM SHEAR AND NEARLY 40 KT OF 0-6KM ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS
CONVECTION APPROACHES. REGARDING SFC CONDITIONS...DO NOTE A
POCKET OF HELICITY NEAR 100 AS WELL. HOWEVER...WILL BE GRADUALLY
LOSING THE NEAR 1000-1200J/KG OF SFC CAPE WITH DIURNAL
STABILIZATION. THEREFORE...IT/S A BALANCING ACT BETWEEN THE
STABILIZATION OF THE COLUMN AND THE INCREASE IN LOCALIZED SHEAR.
DO FEEL THAT THE GUIDANCE SHIFTING QPF OUT OF THE REGION IS LIKELY
TOO DRY ESPECIALLY IN THE W HALF OF THE REGION. FEEL THAT
MAINTAINING THE THREAT FOR T-STORMS INTO AT LEAST 03-06Z IS
WARRANTED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
IS NOTED GIVEN THE SHEAR...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE GIVEN STABILIZATION. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN WORDING FOR HEAVY RAIN...AS HIGH PWATS COULD
STILL PROMOTE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ALL THIS THINKING
COINCIDES NICELY WITH LATEST SPC DAY 1.

OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN/THUNDER POTENTIAL...MAY NEED TO WATCH
ESPECIALLY E AREAS FOR THE RETURN OF SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS THANKS TO DWPTS HOLDING NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
MINS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WARM AS THE COOLER AIR WILL LAG THE
FRONT UNTIL MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE.

WED...
RAPID IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING THE FRONT THANKS TO DRY AIR MOVING IN.
WILL LIKELY SEE DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. THE
COLUMN AS A WHOLE IS DRY ALSO...SO AFTER LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. H85 TEMPS
STILL REMAIN CLOSE TO +13C...SO HIGHS ARE LIKELY STILL TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH VERY WARM AFTERNOON/S
* HUMID WITH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE SAT
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID SUN INTO MON

DETAILS:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE
50S...TO LOWER 60S.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH WARM
AFTERNOON/S...PARTICULARLY BY FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL UP
INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY...BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE IN CHECK.  AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS REACH +16C
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE.

SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND LIKELY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  NOT EXPECTING THE
ENTIRE DAY TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT APPEARS ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION.  PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN AND VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN.
WHILE MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAY...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO WORK
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A COUPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  FOR NOW MOST OF
THE MODELS KEEP THEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND THAT WILL BE SHOWN IN OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST.   HOWEVER...
THERE CERTAINLY IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THAT ONE OF THEM ENDS
UP FURTHER NORTH AND WE END UP WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

THROUGH TODAY...
PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCALES.  THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG MAY HANG THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  THE MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOCALIZED LOWER
CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WITH WINDS
SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE W. SOME MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE MA UNTIL WINDS SHIFT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

WED...
VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE UNLIKELY UNDER STRONGER S-
SW WINDS...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF SEA BREEZE
LATE THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY.

SW FLOW CONTINUES TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE SHORELINES OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND CONTINUE IN THIS
DIRECTION INTO WED FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MAY APPROACH
5 FT ON THE S OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE DAY ON WED.
OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  GOOD
VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE BOATING WEATHER.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT
MAY BECOME CHOPPY ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE BOURNE/HYANNIS NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...KEC-73...
BROADCASTING ON 162.550 MHZ...CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL
OUTAGES. THE TECHNICAL ISSUES ARE BEING WORKED ON PRESENTLY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
EQUIPMENT...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 021043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...RADARS NOW SHOWING A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
WORKING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD JUST BE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR FINE TUNING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS...OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS THINKING APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON
TRACK.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

WE LOSE THE FOG LATER THIS FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 021043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...RADARS NOW SHOWING A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
WORKING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD JUST BE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR FINE TUNING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS...OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS THINKING APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON
TRACK.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

WE LOSE THE FOG LATER THIS FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 021043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...RADARS NOW SHOWING A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
WORKING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD JUST BE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR FINE TUNING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS...OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS THINKING APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON
TRACK.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

WE LOSE THE FOG LATER THIS FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 021043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...RADARS NOW SHOWING A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
WORKING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD JUST BE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR FINE TUNING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS...OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS THINKING APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON
TRACK.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

WE LOSE THE FOG LATER THIS FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 020832
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...WHAT FEW SHOWERS THAT WERE OUT THERE...HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. THE VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED ON BY...BUT THERE
STILL SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK IT SHOULD REMAIN RAINFREE. SOME PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG HAVE FORMED...AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL THEN ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY MORNING DUE TO MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

AFTER SUNRISE...WE LOSE THE FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV













000
FXUS61 KALY 020832
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...WHAT FEW SHOWERS THAT WERE OUT THERE...HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. THE VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED ON BY...BUT THERE
STILL SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK IT SHOULD REMAIN RAINFREE. SOME PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG HAVE FORMED...AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL THEN ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY MORNING DUE TO MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

AFTER SUNRISE...WE LOSE THE FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV













000
FXUS61 KALY 020832
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...WHAT FEW SHOWERS THAT WERE OUT THERE...HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. THE VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED ON BY...BUT THERE
STILL SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK IT SHOULD REMAIN RAINFREE. SOME PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG HAVE FORMED...AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL THEN ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY MORNING DUE TO MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

AFTER SUNRISE...WE LOSE THE FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV













000
FXUS61 KALY 020832
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...WHAT FEW SHOWERS THAT WERE OUT THERE...HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. THE VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED ON BY...BUT THERE
STILL SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK IT SHOULD REMAIN RAINFREE. SOME PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG HAVE FORMED...AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL THEN ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY MORNING DUE TO MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

AFTER SUNRISE...WE LOSE THE FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV













000
FXUS61 KALY 020825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...WHAT FEW SHOWERS THAT WERE OUT THERE...HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. THE VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED ON BY...BUT THERE
STILL SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK IT SHOULD REMAIN RAINFREE. SOME PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG HAVE FORMED...AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL THEN ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY MORNING DUE TO MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

AFTER SUNRISE...WE LOSE THE FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COMING SOON.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 020825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT...WHAT FEW SHOWERS THAT WERE OUT THERE...HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. THE VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED ON BY...BUT THERE
STILL SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK IT SHOULD REMAIN RAINFREE. SOME PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG HAVE FORMED...AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL THEN ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY MORNING DUE TO MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES.

AFTER SUNRISE...WE LOSE THE FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION.

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND
60.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COMING SOON.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15
MPH.

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY
GIVEN SPOT.

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45 PERCENT RANGE.

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBOX 020759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DRIER
BUT WARM WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HUMIDITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT BRINGS THE RISK FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY
SATURDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS BY NEXT SUNDAY AND
MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ASIDE FROM SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
MORNING...MANY LOCATIONS ARE PRIMED TO SEE THE SUNRISE THANKS TO
WEAK MESO-RIDGE IN PLACE BETWEEN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM SUN
NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE E.

WITH THIS IN PLACE...AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AWAY FROM WHERE THIS
MARINE STRATUS IS LOCATED. EXPECT PLENTY OF MIXING THROUGH THE DAY
ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH TO AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE THE
MERRIMACK AND CT RIVER VALLEYS. UPPER 80S ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL...WHERE SFC DWPTS
AROUND 70F ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER A COLUMN WHICH IS
SUPPORTING PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES.

GIVEN THE HOT HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT A FEW AIRMASS-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS POP THIS AFTERNOON
THANKS THE SFC HEATING ALONE /THERE IS A LACK OF OTHER LIFT UNTIL
PRE FRONTAL TROF ARRIVES LATE/. IN FACT EVEN UNDER RELATIVELY
MODEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES...SB CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000J/KG AND MU
CAPES AROUND 1000-1500J/KG ARE POSSIBLE. DURING THE DAY...LLJ AND
THEREFORE SHEAR IS LOW. THEREFORE...GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...EXPECT
HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT OCCUR. MOVEMENT WILL ALSO BE SLOW...BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY
TO SCT AT BEST...SO ANY THREAT FOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
THERE...BUT ISOLATED. HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NW MA AND SW NH...BUT HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO
THE COASTLINES GIVEN THE HOT/HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...IT
COULD BE...AS STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE W CLOSER TO THE
COLD FRONT...THAT AIRMASS CONVECTION DIMINISHES TOWARD
EVENING...UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL CONVECTION ARRIVES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE W...WITH
TIMING GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY GUIDANCE. EXPECT IT TO BE IN
E NY BY 00Z...CENTRAL BOX CWA BY 06Z AND THEN OFFSHORE BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION /POTENTIALLY
STRONG/ ACROSS ERN NY BY ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING. INITIALLY...THE
BEST LLJ ENERGY WILL BE SHIFTING NNE SUGGESTING SLOW E
PROGRESSION...SO SUSPECT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AS LATE AS 03Z FOR ANY
OF THIS CONVECTION TO ARRIVE IN W MA/CT AND SW NH. THE KEY IS HOW
MUCH OF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER INTO THE BOX CWA GIVEN THAT BY
03Z...ALMOST 3 HOURS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT SFC HEATING WILL HAVE
ELAPSED. DO NOTE THAT AS IT APPROACHES WITH THE COLD FRONT...THERE
IS AN INCREASE LLJ ENERGY TO ABOUT 35-40 KT AT H85. THEREFORE...30
KT OF 0-3 KM SHEAR AND NEARLY 40 KT OF 0-6KM ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS
CONVECTION APPROACHES. REGARDING SFC CONDITIONS...DO NOTE A
POCKET OF HELICITY NEAR 100 AS WELL. HOWEVER...WILL BE GRADUALLY
LOSING THE NEAR 1000-1200J/KG OF SFC CAPE WITH DIURNAL
STABILIZATION. THEREFORE...IT/S A BALANCING ACT BETWEEN THE
STABILIZATION OF THE COLUMN AND THE INCREASE IN LOCALIZED SHEAR.
DO FEEL THAT THE GUIDANCE SHIFTING QPF OUT OF THE REGION IS LIKELY
TOO DRY ESPECIALLY IN THE W HALF OF THE REGION. FEEL THAT
MAINTAINING THE THREAT FOR T-STORMS INTO AT LEAST 03-06Z IS
WARRANTED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
IS NOTED GIVEN THE SHEAR...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
ENHANCED WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE GIVEN STABILIZATION. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN WORDING FOR HEAVY RAIN...AS HIGH PWATS COULD
STILL PROMOTE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ALL THIS THINKING
COINCIDES NICELY WITH LATEST SPC DAY 1.

OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN/THUNDER POTENTIAL...MAY NEED TO WATCH
ESPECIALLY E AREAS FOR THE RETURN OF SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AND
STRATUS THANKS TO DWPTS HOLDING NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
MINS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WARM AS THE COOLER AIR WILL LAG THE
FRONT UNTIL MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE.

WED...
RAPID IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING THE FRONT THANKS TO DRY AIR MOVING IN.
WILL LIKELY SEE DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S DURING THE DAY. THE
COLUMN AS A WHOLE IS DRY ALSO...SO AFTER LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. H85 TEMPS
STILL REMAIN CLOSE TO +13C...SO HIGHS ARE LIKELY STILL TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS:

* DRY THU/FRI WITH VERY WARM AFTERNOON/S
* HUMID WITH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE SAT
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID SUN INTO MON

DETAILS:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE
50S...TO LOWER 60S.  PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH WARM
AFTERNOON/S...PARTICULARLY BY FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL UP
INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY...BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE IN CHECK.  AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS REACH +16C
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.  HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE.

SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND LIKELY TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  NOT EXPECTING THE
ENTIRE DAY TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT APPEARS ENOUGH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION.  PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN AND VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN.
WHILE MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FRIDAY...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO WORK
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A COUPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  FOR NOW MOST OF
THE MODELS KEEP THEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND THAT WILL BE SHOWN IN OUR DETERMINISTIC FORECAST.   HOWEVER...
THERE CERTAINLY IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THAT ONE OF THEM ENDS
UP FURTHER NORTH AND WE END UP WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

THROUGH TODAY...
MAINLY VFR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLAND TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO
WATCH RI TERMINALS AS WELL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE EXCEPT ACK WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID DAY.

OTHERWISE TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE THIS THREAT CONTINUES
INTO THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WITH WINDS
SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE W. SOME MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE MA UNTIL WINDS SHIFT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

WED...
VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER LATE IN THE DAY TODAY OR THIS EVENING. SEA BREEZE
UNLIKELY UNDER STRONGER S-SW WINDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A PERIOD OF MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY.

SW FLOW CONTINUES TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE SHORELINES OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND CONTINUE IN THIS
DIRECTION INTO WED FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS THIS EVENING. SEAS MAY APPROACH
5 FT ON THE S OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE DAY ON WED.
OTHERWISE...SOME FOG MAY LEAD TO VSBY REDUCTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.  GOOD
VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE BOATING WEATHER.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD
MIXING OVER THE LAND.  SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT
MAY BECOME CHOPPY ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF FOG MAY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE
RISK OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE BOURNE/HYANNIS NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...KEC-73...
BROADCASTING ON 162.550 MHZ...CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL
OUTAGES. THE TECHNICAL ISSUES ARE BEING WORKED ON PRESENTLY. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
EQUIPMENT...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 020556
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A FEW VERY SMALL SHOWERS HAVE POPPED ON THE
RADAR SCREEN. THE MESO-SCALE MODELS ALL WERE FORECASTING SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN EXTREMELY WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIPPLING THROUGH BUT NEVERTHELESS...HAVING INCREASED MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TO WORK WITH.

WHILE WE BELIEVE MOST OF THE MESO-MODELS WERE OVERDOING THIS
ACTIVITY...WE FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO PLACE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL...AND
EVEN WHERE IT HAPPENS...ANY SHOWER SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW
MINUTES.

WITH AN INCREASE IN PATCHY CLOUDS...AND IN SOME CASES...STILL A
BREEZE...WE BACKED OFF THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG. WE WILL NOW CALL IT
PATCHY FOG EVERYWHERE (AS OPPOSED TO AREAS OF FOG).

IT WAS AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...MAKING IT WARM
FOR EVEN A JULY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS












000
FXUS61 KALY 020556
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A FEW VERY SMALL SHOWERS HAVE POPPED ON THE
RADAR SCREEN. THE MESO-SCALE MODELS ALL WERE FORECASTING SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN EXTREMELY WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIPPLING THROUGH BUT NEVERTHELESS...HAVING INCREASED MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TO WORK WITH.

WHILE WE BELIEVE MOST OF THE MESO-MODELS WERE OVERDOING THIS
ACTIVITY...WE FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO PLACE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL...AND
EVEN WHERE IT HAPPENS...ANY SHOWER SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW
MINUTES.

WITH AN INCREASE IN PATCHY CLOUDS...AND IN SOME CASES...STILL A
BREEZE...WE BACKED OFF THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG. WE WILL NOW CALL IT
PATCHY FOG EVERYWHERE (AS OPPOSED TO AREAS OF FOG).

IT WAS AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...MAKING IT WARM
FOR EVEN A JULY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS












000
FXUS61 KALY 020556
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A FEW VERY SMALL SHOWERS HAVE POPPED ON THE
RADAR SCREEN. THE MESO-SCALE MODELS ALL WERE FORECASTING SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN EXTREMELY WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIPPLING THROUGH BUT NEVERTHELESS...HAVING INCREASED MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TO WORK WITH.

WHILE WE BELIEVE MOST OF THE MESO-MODELS WERE OVERDOING THIS
ACTIVITY...WE FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO PLACE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL...AND
EVEN WHERE IT HAPPENS...ANY SHOWER SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW
MINUTES.

WITH AN INCREASE IN PATCHY CLOUDS...AND IN SOME CASES...STILL A
BREEZE...WE BACKED OFF THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG. WE WILL NOW CALL IT
PATCHY FOG EVERYWHERE (AS OPPOSED TO AREAS OF FOG).

IT WAS AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...MAKING IT WARM
FOR EVEN A JULY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS












000
FXUS61 KALY 020556
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A FEW VERY SMALL SHOWERS HAVE POPPED ON THE
RADAR SCREEN. THE MESO-SCALE MODELS ALL WERE FORECASTING SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN EXTREMELY WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIPPLING THROUGH BUT NEVERTHELESS...HAVING INCREASED MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TO WORK WITH.

WHILE WE BELIEVE MOST OF THE MESO-MODELS WERE OVERDOING THIS
ACTIVITY...WE FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO PLACE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL...AND
EVEN WHERE IT HAPPENS...ANY SHOWER SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW
MINUTES.

WITH AN INCREASE IN PATCHY CLOUDS...AND IN SOME CASES...STILL A
BREEZE...WE BACKED OFF THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG. WE WILL NOW CALL IT
PATCHY FOG EVERYWHERE (AS OPPOSED TO AREAS OF FOG).

IT WAS AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...MAKING IT WARM
FOR EVEN A JULY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOG HAS BEEN
SLOW TO FORM. WILL ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL MVFR FOG AT KPOU/KALB
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AT KGFL WILL FORECAST OCCASIONAL IFR
FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. AT KPSF IFR FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED...BUT IT IS NOT PERSISTENT...WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR FOG CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z ALL TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. BEGINNING 20Z TO 22Z
HAVE FORECAST A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 4 TO 8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS












000
FXUS61 KBOX 020547
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
147 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.  A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS
HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
SOME LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS S PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN AND AFTERNOON HEATING DIMINISHES.  THEN ANOTHER
NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE WARM...HUMID
AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL ACTUALLY BE THE MOST SUMMERY
WEATHER WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST MONTH.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ALL THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BUT APPROACH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE LIFTED INDICES...K INDICES...AND CAPE.  AGAIN THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN FLOODING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND USHERING IN A
DRIER AIRMASS.  FOG AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
01/12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY. MAIN FEATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN USA...WITH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE USA/CANADIAN
BORDER. SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES IN THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW ARISE TOWARD THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A
MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM HUDSON BAY.

CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILD
ALOFT...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WHICH WILL HELP
TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECTING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION. DEW POINTS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...ON
THURSDAY. BUT LOOK TO START RISING BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TAKE OVER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. AT THIS POINT...
THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER ONCE
MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

THROUGH TODAY...
MAINLY VFR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLAND TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO
WATCH RI TERMINALS AS WELL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE EXCEPT ACK WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID DAY.

OTHERWISE TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE THIS THREAT CONTINUES
INTO THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WITH WINDS
SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE W. SOME MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE MA UNTIL WINDS SHIFT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

WED...
VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER LATE IN THE DAY TODAY OR THIS EVENING. SEA BREEZE
UNLIKELY UNDER STRONGER S-SW WINDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-
IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN
AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FAR INTERIOR /SW NH AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU
NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. FOG AND LOW STRATUS
IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THERE
IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THESE INCREASED WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS...WHICH MAY
APPROACH 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE BOURNE/HYANNIS NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...KEC-73...
BROADCASTING ON 162.550 MHZ...IS TEMPORARILY NOT BROADCASTING. THE
TECHNICAL ISSUES ARE BEING WORKED ON PRESENTLY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR
THE INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/RLG
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 020547
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
147 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.  A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS
HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
SOME LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS S PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN AND AFTERNOON HEATING DIMINISHES.  THEN ANOTHER
NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE WARM...HUMID
AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL ACTUALLY BE THE MOST SUMMERY
WEATHER WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST MONTH.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ALL THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BUT APPROACH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE LIFTED INDICES...K INDICES...AND CAPE.  AGAIN THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN FLOODING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND USHERING IN A
DRIER AIRMASS.  FOG AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
01/12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY. MAIN FEATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN USA...WITH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE USA/CANADIAN
BORDER. SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES IN THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW ARISE TOWARD THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A
MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM HUDSON BAY.

CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILD
ALOFT...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WHICH WILL HELP
TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECTING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION. DEW POINTS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...ON
THURSDAY. BUT LOOK TO START RISING BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TAKE OVER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. AT THIS POINT...
THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER ONCE
MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

THROUGH TODAY...
MAINLY VFR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLAND TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO
WATCH RI TERMINALS AS WELL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE EXCEPT ACK WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID DAY.

OTHERWISE TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE THIS THREAT CONTINUES
INTO THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WITH WINDS
SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE W. SOME MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE MA UNTIL WINDS SHIFT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

WED...
VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER LATE IN THE DAY TODAY OR THIS EVENING. SEA BREEZE
UNLIKELY UNDER STRONGER S-SW WINDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-
IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN
AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FAR INTERIOR /SW NH AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU
NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. FOG AND LOW STRATUS
IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THERE
IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THESE INCREASED WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS...WHICH MAY
APPROACH 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE BOURNE/HYANNIS NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...KEC-73...
BROADCASTING ON 162.550 MHZ...IS TEMPORARILY NOT BROADCASTING. THE
TECHNICAL ISSUES ARE BEING WORKED ON PRESENTLY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR
THE INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/RLG
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KALY 020440
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1240 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A FEW VERY SMALL SHOWERS HAVE POPPED ON THE
RADAR SCREEN. THE MESO-SCALE MODELS ALL WERE FORECASTING SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN EXTREMELY WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIPPLING THROUGH BUT NEVERTHELESS...HAVING INCREASED MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TO WORK WITH.

WHILE WE BELIEVE MOST OF THE MESO-MODELS WERE OVERDOING THIS
ACTIVITY...WE FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO PLACE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL...AND
EVEN WHERE IT HAPPENS...ANY SHOWER SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW
MINUTES.

WITH AN INCREASE IN PATCHY CLOUDS...AND IN SOME CASES...STILL A
BREEZE...WE BACKED OFF THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG. WE WILL NOW CALL IT
PATCHY FOG EVERYWHERE (AS OPPOSED TO AREAS OF FOG).

IT WAS AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...MAKING IT WARM
FOR EVEN A JULY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW
STRATUS/FOG/MIST WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE TREND 24 HRS
AGO...WE WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND IN THIS SET OF TAFS.

FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE. THEN WE SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TIMING PER TRENDS AS THEY EVOLVE DURING TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...BGM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 020440
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1240 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...A FEW VERY SMALL SHOWERS HAVE POPPED ON THE
RADAR SCREEN. THE MESO-SCALE MODELS ALL WERE FORECASTING SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN EXTREMELY WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIPPLING THROUGH BUT NEVERTHELESS...HAVING INCREASED MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TO WORK WITH.

WHILE WE BELIEVE MOST OF THE MESO-MODELS WERE OVERDOING THIS
ACTIVITY...WE FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO PLACE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL...AND
EVEN WHERE IT HAPPENS...ANY SHOWER SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW
MINUTES.

WITH AN INCREASE IN PATCHY CLOUDS...AND IN SOME CASES...STILL A
BREEZE...WE BACKED OFF THE COVERAGE OF THE FOG. WE WILL NOW CALL IT
PATCHY FOG EVERYWHERE (AS OPPOSED TO AREAS OF FOG).

IT WAS AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...MAKING IT WARM
FOR EVEN A JULY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW
STRATUS/FOG/MIST WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE TREND 24 HRS
AGO...WE WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND IN THIS SET OF TAFS.

FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE. THEN WE SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TIMING PER TRENDS AS THEY EVOLVE DURING TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...BGM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KALY 020241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1040 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM...PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IS
SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION WITH MOISTURE RETURN/ADVECTION NOW
UNDERWAY.  00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL A CAP AT AND JUST BELOW H600 WITH
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION AT +1C.  SEEMS THE 00Z/NAM MIGHT BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WHICH IS ALSO SUGGESTED IN THE HRRR.  SO WE WILL KEEP POPS JUST
BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.  THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY SUGGESTS
STRATUS WAS JUST BEGINNING TO EXPAND OVER THE REGION BUT STILL AMPLE
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR FOG FORMATION.
CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE NARROWED SINCE THE LAST ESTF SO NO
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  PER HOURLY TRENDS...DID RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW
STRATUS/FOG/MIST WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE TREND 24 HRS
AGO...WE WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND IN THIS SET OF TAFS.

FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE. THEN WE SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TIMING PER TRENDS AS THEY EVOLVE DURING TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...BGM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY








000
FXUS61 KALY 020241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1040 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM...PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IS
SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION WITH MOISTURE RETURN/ADVECTION NOW
UNDERWAY.  00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL A CAP AT AND JUST BELOW H600 WITH
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION AT +1C.  SEEMS THE 00Z/NAM MIGHT BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WHICH IS ALSO SUGGESTED IN THE HRRR.  SO WE WILL KEEP POPS JUST
BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.  THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY SUGGESTS
STRATUS WAS JUST BEGINNING TO EXPAND OVER THE REGION BUT STILL AMPLE
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR FOG FORMATION.
CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE NARROWED SINCE THE LAST ESTF SO NO
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  PER HOURLY TRENDS...DID RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW
STRATUS/FOG/MIST WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE TREND 24 HRS
AGO...WE WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND IN THIS SET OF TAFS.

FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE. THEN WE SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TIMING PER TRENDS AS THEY EVOLVE DURING TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...BGM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY







000
FXUS61 KBOX 020203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.  A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS
HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WEAK MESO RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WELL OFFSHORE AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TO THE W. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT THE OVERNIGHT
REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...MILD AND HUMID. DON/T SEE
ANY REASON FOR THE DWPTS TO DROP MUCH DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES.
THEY WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F ALL NIGHT...AND
THIS IS WHERE LOWS WILL GET TO AS WELL. THEREFORE...STILL WILL
MONITOR FOR FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

CLOSER TO THE SE COAST HOWEVER...FOG PRODUCT IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
AN AREA OF STRATUS ALREADY BUILDING ALONG THE WATER S OF THE NEW
ENGLAND WHICH MAY MOVE TO ALONG S COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN AND AFTERNOON HEATING DIMINISHES.  THEN ANOTHER
NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE WARM...HUMID
AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL ACTUALLY BE THE MOST SUMMERY
WEATHER WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST MONTH.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ALL THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BUT APPROACH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE LIFTED INDICES...K INDICES...AND CAPE.  AGAIN THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN FLOODING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND USHERING IN A
DRIER AIRMASS.  FOG AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
01/12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY. MAIN FEATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN USA...WITH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE USA/CANADIAN
BORDER. SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES IN THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW ARISE TOWARD THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A
MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM HUDSON BAY.

CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILD
ALOFT...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WHICH WILL HELP
TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECTING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION. DEW POINTS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...ON
THURSDAY. BUT LOOK TO START RISING BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TAKE OVER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. AT THIS POINT...
THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER ONCE
MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

TONIGHT...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE WILL AGAIN BE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS DISSIPATE. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING SHRA/TSRA TO END
AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING. SEABREEZE ENDS NO LATER THAN 02/0030Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-
IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN
AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FAR INTERIOR /SW NH AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU
NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. FOG AND LOW STRATUS
IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THERE
IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THESE INCREASED WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS...WHICH MAY
APPROACH 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE BOURNE/HYANNIS NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...KEC-73...
BROADCASTING ON 162.550 MHZ...IS TEMPORARILY NOT BROADCASTING. THE
TECHNICAL ISSUES ARE BEING WORKED ON PRESENTLY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR
THE INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 020203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.  A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS
HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WEAK MESO RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WELL OFFSHORE AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TO THE W. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT THE OVERNIGHT
REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...MILD AND HUMID. DON/T SEE
ANY REASON FOR THE DWPTS TO DROP MUCH DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES.
THEY WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F ALL NIGHT...AND
THIS IS WHERE LOWS WILL GET TO AS WELL. THEREFORE...STILL WILL
MONITOR FOR FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

CLOSER TO THE SE COAST HOWEVER...FOG PRODUCT IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
AN AREA OF STRATUS ALREADY BUILDING ALONG THE WATER S OF THE NEW
ENGLAND WHICH MAY MOVE TO ALONG S COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN AND AFTERNOON HEATING DIMINISHES.  THEN ANOTHER
NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE WARM...HUMID
AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL ACTUALLY BE THE MOST SUMMERY
WEATHER WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST MONTH.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ALL THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BUT APPROACH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE LIFTED INDICES...K INDICES...AND CAPE.  AGAIN THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN FLOODING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND USHERING IN A
DRIER AIRMASS.  FOG AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
01/12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY. MAIN FEATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN USA...WITH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE USA/CANADIAN
BORDER. SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES IN THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW ARISE TOWARD THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A
MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM HUDSON BAY.

CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILD
ALOFT...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WHICH WILL HELP
TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECTING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION. DEW POINTS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...ON
THURSDAY. BUT LOOK TO START RISING BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TAKE OVER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. AT THIS POINT...
THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER ONCE
MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

TONIGHT...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE WILL AGAIN BE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS DISSIPATE. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING SHRA/TSRA TO END
AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING. SEABREEZE ENDS NO LATER THAN 02/0030Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-
IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN
AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FAR INTERIOR /SW NH AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU
NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. FOG AND LOW STRATUS
IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THERE
IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THESE INCREASED WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS...WHICH MAY
APPROACH 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE BOURNE/HYANNIS NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...KEC-73...
BROADCASTING ON 162.550 MHZ...IS TEMPORARILY NOT BROADCASTING. THE
TECHNICAL ISSUES ARE BEING WORKED ON PRESENTLY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR
THE INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 020203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.  A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS
HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WEAK MESO RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WELL OFFSHORE AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TO THE W. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT THE OVERNIGHT
REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...MILD AND HUMID. DON/T SEE
ANY REASON FOR THE DWPTS TO DROP MUCH DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES.
THEY WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F ALL NIGHT...AND
THIS IS WHERE LOWS WILL GET TO AS WELL. THEREFORE...STILL WILL
MONITOR FOR FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

CLOSER TO THE SE COAST HOWEVER...FOG PRODUCT IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
AN AREA OF STRATUS ALREADY BUILDING ALONG THE WATER S OF THE NEW
ENGLAND WHICH MAY MOVE TO ALONG S COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN AND AFTERNOON HEATING DIMINISHES.  THEN ANOTHER
NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE WARM...HUMID
AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL ACTUALLY BE THE MOST SUMMERY
WEATHER WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST MONTH.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ALL THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BUT APPROACH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE LIFTED INDICES...K INDICES...AND CAPE.  AGAIN THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN FLOODING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND USHERING IN A
DRIER AIRMASS.  FOG AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
01/12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY. MAIN FEATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN USA...WITH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE USA/CANADIAN
BORDER. SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES IN THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW ARISE TOWARD THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A
MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM HUDSON BAY.

CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILD
ALOFT...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WHICH WILL HELP
TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECTING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION. DEW POINTS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...ON
THURSDAY. BUT LOOK TO START RISING BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TAKE OVER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. AT THIS POINT...
THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER ONCE
MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

TONIGHT...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE WILL AGAIN BE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS DISSIPATE. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING SHRA/TSRA TO END
AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING. SEABREEZE ENDS NO LATER THAN 02/0030Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-
IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN
AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FAR INTERIOR /SW NH AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU
NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. FOG AND LOW STRATUS
IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THERE
IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THESE INCREASED WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS...WHICH MAY
APPROACH 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE BOURNE/HYANNIS NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...KEC-73...
BROADCASTING ON 162.550 MHZ...IS TEMPORARILY NOT BROADCASTING. THE
TECHNICAL ISSUES ARE BEING WORKED ON PRESENTLY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR
THE INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 020203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.  A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS
HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WEAK MESO RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WELL OFFSHORE AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TO THE W. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT THE OVERNIGHT
REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...MILD AND HUMID. DON/T SEE
ANY REASON FOR THE DWPTS TO DROP MUCH DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES.
THEY WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F ALL NIGHT...AND
THIS IS WHERE LOWS WILL GET TO AS WELL. THEREFORE...STILL WILL
MONITOR FOR FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

CLOSER TO THE SE COAST HOWEVER...FOG PRODUCT IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
AN AREA OF STRATUS ALREADY BUILDING ALONG THE WATER S OF THE NEW
ENGLAND WHICH MAY MOVE TO ALONG S COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN AND AFTERNOON HEATING DIMINISHES.  THEN ANOTHER
NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE WARM...HUMID
AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL ACTUALLY BE THE MOST SUMMERY
WEATHER WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST MONTH.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ALL THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BUT APPROACH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE LIFTED INDICES...K INDICES...AND CAPE.  AGAIN THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN FLOODING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND USHERING IN A
DRIER AIRMASS.  FOG AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
01/12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY. MAIN FEATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN USA...WITH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE USA/CANADIAN
BORDER. SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES IN THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW ARISE TOWARD THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A
MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM HUDSON BAY.

CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILD
ALOFT...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WHICH WILL HELP
TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECTING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION. DEW POINTS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...ON
THURSDAY. BUT LOOK TO START RISING BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TAKE OVER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. AT THIS POINT...
THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER ONCE
MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

TONIGHT...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE WILL AGAIN BE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS DISSIPATE. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING SHRA/TSRA TO END
AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING. SEABREEZE ENDS NO LATER THAN 02/0030Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-
IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN
AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FAR INTERIOR /SW NH AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU
NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. FOG AND LOW STRATUS
IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THERE
IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THESE INCREASED WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS...WHICH MAY
APPROACH 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE BOURNE/HYANNIS NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...KEC-73...
BROADCASTING ON 162.550 MHZ...IS TEMPORARILY NOT BROADCASTING. THE
TECHNICAL ISSUES ARE BEING WORKED ON PRESENTLY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR
THE INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KALY 012350
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
750 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM...H2O VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO REVEAL A RATHER LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALONG AND EAST OF I81. LATEST MESOSCALE
REFLECTIVITY MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CUT BACK ON POPS/WX
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS UPSTREAM AS
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ARRIVE. BASED ON TRENDS...THE CLOUD
COVER AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL SUNRISE OR LATER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. SO...WITH HIGH
LEVEL OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS /DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS/ AND NARROWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVER
THE REGION...SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO FALL TO SIMILAR LEVELS AS LAST NIGHT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN SPOTS...BUT STILL IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW
STRATUS/FOG/MIST WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE TREND 24 HRS
AGO...WE WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND IN THIS SET OF TAFS.

FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE. THEN WE SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TIMING PER TRENDS AS THEY EVOLVE DURING TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...BGM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 012350
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
750 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM...H2O VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO REVEAL A RATHER LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALONG AND EAST OF I81. LATEST MESOSCALE
REFLECTIVITY MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CUT BACK ON POPS/WX
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS UPSTREAM AS
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ARRIVE. BASED ON TRENDS...THE CLOUD
COVER AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL SUNRISE OR LATER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. SO...WITH HIGH
LEVEL OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS /DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS/ AND NARROWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVER
THE REGION...SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO FALL TO SIMILAR LEVELS AS LAST NIGHT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN SPOTS...BUT STILL IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW
STRATUS/FOG/MIST WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE TREND 24 HRS
AGO...WE WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND IN THIS SET OF TAFS.

FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE. THEN WE SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TIMING PER TRENDS AS THEY EVOLVE DURING TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...BGM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 012350
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
750 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM...H2O VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO REVEAL A RATHER LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALONG AND EAST OF I81. LATEST MESOSCALE
REFLECTIVITY MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CUT BACK ON POPS/WX
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS UPSTREAM AS
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ARRIVE. BASED ON TRENDS...THE CLOUD
COVER AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL SUNRISE OR LATER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. SO...WITH HIGH
LEVEL OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS /DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS/ AND NARROWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVER
THE REGION...SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO FALL TO SIMILAR LEVELS AS LAST NIGHT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN SPOTS...BUT STILL IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW
STRATUS/FOG/MIST WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE TREND 24 HRS
AGO...WE WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND IN THIS SET OF TAFS.

FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE. THEN WE SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TIMING PER TRENDS AS THEY EVOLVE DURING TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...BGM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 012350
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
750 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM...H2O VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO REVEAL A RATHER LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALONG AND EAST OF I81. LATEST MESOSCALE
REFLECTIVITY MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CUT BACK ON POPS/WX
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS UPSTREAM AS
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ARRIVE. BASED ON TRENDS...THE CLOUD
COVER AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL SUNRISE OR LATER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. SO...WITH HIGH
LEVEL OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS /DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS/ AND NARROWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVER
THE REGION...SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO FALL TO SIMILAR LEVELS AS LAST NIGHT...MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN SPOTS...BUT STILL IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW
STRATUS/FOG/MIST WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE TREND 24 HRS
AGO...WE WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND IN THIS SET OF TAFS.

FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE. THEN WE SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TIMING PER TRENDS AS THEY EVOLVE DURING TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...BGM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 012337
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
737 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.  A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS
HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF FOG/STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST...AND SPEED UP THE DEPARTURE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING. MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO BRING THE NEAR TERM CONDITIONS IN LINE WITH
OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN AND AFTERNOON HEATING DIMINISHES.  THEN ANOTHER
NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE WARM...HUMID
AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL ACTUALLY BE THE MOST SUMMERY
WEATHER WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST MONTH.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ALL THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BUT APPROACH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE LIFTED INDICES...K INDICES...AND CAPE.  AGAIN THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN FLOODING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND USHERING IN A
DRIER AIRMASS.  FOG AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
01/12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY. MAIN FEATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN USA...WITH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE USA/CANADIAN
BORDER. SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES IN THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW ARISE TOWARD THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A
MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM HUDSON BAY.

CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILD
ALOFT...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WHICH WILL HELP
TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECTING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION. DEW POINTS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...ON
THURSDAY. BUT LOOK TO START RISING BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TAKE OVER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. AT THIS POINT...
THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER ONCE
MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

TONIGHT...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE WILL AGAIN BE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS DISSIPATE. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING SHRA/TSRA TO END
AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING. SEABREEZE ENDS NO LATER THAN 02/0030Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-
IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN
AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FAR INTERIOR /SW NH AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU
NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. FOG AND LOW STRATUS
IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THERE
IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THESE INCREASED WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS...WHICH MAY
APPROACH 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE BOURNE/HYANNIS NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...KEC-73...
BROADCASTING ON 162.550 MHZ...IS TEMPORARILY NOT BROADCASTING. THE
TECHNICAL ISSUES ARE BEING WORKED ON PRESENTLY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR
THE INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG
EQUIPMENT...BELK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 012024
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
424 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.  A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS
HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH MINIMAL SHEAR IN PLACE...NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.  WHILE WE HAVE YET TO SEE ANY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS...WITH 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE
AVAILABLE...THUNDER IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. MOST LIKELY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS IS HEAVY RAINFALL AND URBAN FLOODING.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN AND AFTERNOON HEATING DIMINISHES.  THEN ANOTHER
NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE WARM...HUMID AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL ACTUALLY BE THE MOST SUMMERY
WEATHER WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST MONTH.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ALL THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BUT APPROACH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE LIFTED INDICES...K INDICES...AND CAPE.  AGAIN THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN FLOODING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND USHERING IN A
DRIER AIRMASS.  FOG AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
01/12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY. MAIN FEATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN USA...WITH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE USA/CANADIAN
BORDER. SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES IN THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW ARISE TOWARD THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A
MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM HUDSON BAY.

CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILD
ALOFT...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WHICH WILL HELP
TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECTING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION. DEW POINTS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...ON
THURSDAY. BUT LOOK TO START RISING BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TAKE OVER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. AT THIS POINT...
THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER ONCE
MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

THROUGH 00Z...IFR CIGS LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS. SEA BREEZE ALONG BOTH COASTS
RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT LOGAN.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHRA/TSRA ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE WILL
AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING SHRA/TSRA TO END
AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.  SEABREEZE CONTINUES THROUGH SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-
IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN
AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FAR INTERIOR /SW NH AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU
NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. FOG AND LOW STRATUS
IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THERE
IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THESE INCREASED WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS...WHICH MAY
APPROACH 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 012024
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
424 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.  A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS
HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH MINIMAL SHEAR IN PLACE...NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.  WHILE WE HAVE YET TO SEE ANY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS...WITH 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE
AVAILABLE...THUNDER IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. MOST LIKELY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS IS HEAVY RAINFALL AND URBAN FLOODING.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN AND AFTERNOON HEATING DIMINISHES.  THEN ANOTHER
NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE WARM...HUMID AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL ACTUALLY BE THE MOST SUMMERY
WEATHER WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST MONTH.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ALL THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BUT APPROACH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY INDICATED BY
THE LIFTED INDICES...K INDICES...AND CAPE.  AGAIN THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN FLOODING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND USHERING IN A
DRIER AIRMASS.  FOG AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
01/12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY. MAIN FEATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN USA...WITH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE USA/CANADIAN
BORDER. SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES IN THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW ARISE TOWARD THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A
MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM HUDSON BAY.

CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILD
ALOFT...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WHICH WILL HELP
TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECTING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION. DEW POINTS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...ON
THURSDAY. BUT LOOK TO START RISING BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TAKE OVER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. AT THIS POINT...
THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER ONCE
MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

THROUGH 00Z...IFR CIGS LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS. SEA BREEZE ALONG BOTH COASTS
RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT LOGAN.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHRA/TSRA ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE WILL
AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING SHRA/TSRA TO END
AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.  SEABREEZE CONTINUES THROUGH SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-
IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN
AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FAR INTERIOR /SW NH AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU
NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. FOG AND LOW STRATUS
IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THERE
IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THESE INCREASED WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS...WHICH MAY
APPROACH 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 011936
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
336 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER OUR
REGION...WITH CONVECTION ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BASED
ON TRENDS...THE CLOUD COVER AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNRISE OR LATER OVER MOST OF
THE REGION. SO...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEW
POINTS OVER THE REGION...SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE. WITH SOME
DEGREE OF CLEARING THIS EVENING...AND THEN SOME FOG...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL TO SIMILAR LEVELS AS LAST NIGHT...MAYBE EVEN
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...BUT STILL IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD VFR CONDITIONS INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY IN
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN ISOLD THREAT
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR KPOU...BUT WE ELECTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT OF THE TAF THERE AT THIS TIME WITH THE PROBS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.

THE SKIES WILL INITIALLY BE CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN
CIRRUS AROUND. THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW AREAS OF MIST OR FOG TO FORM SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN
06Z-12Z. KPOU WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS CLOSER TO
08Z-12Z. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-
14Z...WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KPSF...AND KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 5 KTS OR
LESS. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4-7 KTS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BBUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 011936
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
336 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER OUR
REGION...WITH CONVECTION ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BASED
ON TRENDS...THE CLOUD COVER AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNRISE OR LATER OVER MOST OF
THE REGION. SO...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEW
POINTS OVER THE REGION...SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE. WITH SOME
DEGREE OF CLEARING THIS EVENING...AND THEN SOME FOG...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL TO SIMILAR LEVELS AS LAST NIGHT...MAYBE EVEN
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...BUT STILL IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD VFR CONDITIONS INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY IN
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN ISOLD THREAT
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR KPOU...BUT WE ELECTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT OF THE TAF THERE AT THIS TIME WITH THE PROBS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.

THE SKIES WILL INITIALLY BE CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN
CIRRUS AROUND. THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW AREAS OF MIST OR FOG TO FORM SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN
06Z-12Z. KPOU WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS CLOSER TO
08Z-12Z. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-
14Z...WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KPSF...AND KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 5 KTS OR
LESS. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4-7 KTS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BBUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 011936
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
336 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER OUR
REGION...WITH CONVECTION ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BASED
ON TRENDS...THE CLOUD COVER AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNRISE OR LATER OVER MOST OF
THE REGION. SO...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEW
POINTS OVER THE REGION...SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE. WITH SOME
DEGREE OF CLEARING THIS EVENING...AND THEN SOME FOG...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL TO SIMILAR LEVELS AS LAST NIGHT...MAYBE EVEN
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...BUT STILL IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD VFR CONDITIONS INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY IN
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN ISOLD THREAT
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR KPOU...BUT WE ELECTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT OF THE TAF THERE AT THIS TIME WITH THE PROBS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.

THE SKIES WILL INITIALLY BE CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN
CIRRUS AROUND. THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW AREAS OF MIST OR FOG TO FORM SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN
06Z-12Z. KPOU WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS CLOSER TO
08Z-12Z. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-
14Z...WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KPSF...AND KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 5 KTS OR
LESS. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4-7 KTS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BBUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 011936
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
336 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER OUR
REGION...WITH CONVECTION ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BASED
ON TRENDS...THE CLOUD COVER AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNRISE OR LATER OVER MOST OF
THE REGION. SO...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEW
POINTS OVER THE REGION...SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE. WITH SOME
DEGREE OF CLEARING THIS EVENING...AND THEN SOME FOG...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL TO SIMILAR LEVELS AS LAST NIGHT...MAYBE EVEN
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER...BUT STILL IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER.

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD VFR CONDITIONS INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY IN
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN ISOLD THREAT
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR KPOU...BUT WE ELECTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT OF THE TAF THERE AT THIS TIME WITH THE PROBS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.

THE SKIES WILL INITIALLY BE CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN
CIRRUS AROUND. THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW AREAS OF MIST OR FOG TO FORM SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN
06Z-12Z. KPOU WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS CLOSER TO
08Z-12Z. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-
14Z...WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KPSF...AND KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 5 KTS OR
LESS. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4-7 KTS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BBUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 011801
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
201 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 PM UPDATE...DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AND SEA BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG BOTH COASTS. STARTING
TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP UP IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL START TO SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CT/MA BORDER AND EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WARM HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. A FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE WILL
SERVE AS FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. MEANWHILE...2 INCH VALUES LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FUEL FOR ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS
BUT LIKELY NOT AT SEVERE LEVELS. TOTALS START LOW AND CLIMB TO
46-47 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS.
THE GFS SHOWS SHOWS SBCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY IN
CT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY...20-30 M2/S2.
POPS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE
SOUTH COAST. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5-2.0 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...ANY STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. MAX SFC
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING BUT DIMINISHING. HIGH HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WIND WILL AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
MIN SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS...MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT APPROACH WESTERN
MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE. TOTALS ON THE GFS ARE 50-51 WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GGEM ARE 47-48. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6C/KM.
SBCAPES ARE 500-1000 J/KG BY THE GFS HINTS AT 1000-1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WE WILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH AND
DIMINISHING VALUES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE...AS H5 TROUGH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
ONTARIO AS IT FLATTENS OUT. THE UPPER PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY FALL...WITH BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE...WITH
THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF OP RUNS AS WELL AS ECENS AND GFS MEANS SHOWING A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER PATTERN WHILE THE GFS OP RUNS
TENDING TO SIGNAL A QUICKER BREAKDOWN. ALSO NOTING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CROSSING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA AROUND THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
REMAIN WELL N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...FOR NOW.

HAVE LEANED THIS FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...AS THIS BLEND HAS SHOWN VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEN PUSHED CLOSER TO THE
EC/ECENS MEANS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH TEND TO BE SLOWER THAN MOST
OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT...WITH A STRONG
DOMINANT PATTERN IN PLACE SUCH AS WHAT WILL BE DEVELOPING...THIS
TENDS TO TAKE MORE TIME TO BREAK DOWN UNLESS SOME MAJOR SYSTEM
SHOWS UP IN THE OVERALL FLOW.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL LIFT NE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS H5 SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING IN...MAINLY ACROSS S NH/N
CENTRAL AND W MA. WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SW WINDS TO SHIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S OF
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND H5 HEIGHTS RISING WITH BROAD RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT... LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...EXCEPT FROM 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WED NIGHT AS TEMPS FINALLY FALL BACK TO THE 50S...THOUGH HOLDING
IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM...WHICH MAY HELP TO PROMOTE THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECT DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPTS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...BUT
LOOK TO START CREEPING BACK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH WILL
SLIP OFF THE COAST AND SW WINDS TAKE OVER. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AGAIN...THOUGH SOME READINGS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 80S WELL INLAND ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AT THIS POINT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION DURING SAT...PUSHING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

THROUGH 00Z...IFR CIGS LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS. SEA BREEZE ALONG BOTH COASTS
RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT LOGAN.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHRA/TSRA ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE WILL
AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING SHRA/TSRA TO END
AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.  SEABREEZE CONTINUES THROUGH SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SW NH AND NORTH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN PLACE...MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AS
WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL START AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE WATERS OCCURRING SOUTH OF BOSTON.

TONIGHT...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH EARLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH POOR VISIBILITY.

TUESDAY...
AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING
DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY THREATEN THE
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD EVENING. TSTMS COULD CAUSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY
SEE SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO W AND DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING. WINDS BACK
AROUND TO SW AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011801
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
201 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 PM UPDATE...DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AND SEA BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG BOTH COASTS. STARTING
TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP UP IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL START TO SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CT/MA BORDER AND EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WARM HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. A FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE WILL
SERVE AS FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. MEANWHILE...2 INCH VALUES LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FUEL FOR ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS
BUT LIKELY NOT AT SEVERE LEVELS. TOTALS START LOW AND CLIMB TO
46-47 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS.
THE GFS SHOWS SHOWS SBCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY IN
CT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY...20-30 M2/S2.
POPS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE
SOUTH COAST. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5-2.0 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...ANY STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. MAX SFC
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING BUT DIMINISHING. HIGH HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WIND WILL AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
MIN SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS...MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT APPROACH WESTERN
MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE. TOTALS ON THE GFS ARE 50-51 WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GGEM ARE 47-48. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6C/KM.
SBCAPES ARE 500-1000 J/KG BY THE GFS HINTS AT 1000-1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WE WILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH AND
DIMINISHING VALUES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE...AS H5 TROUGH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
ONTARIO AS IT FLATTENS OUT. THE UPPER PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY FALL...WITH BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE...WITH
THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF OP RUNS AS WELL AS ECENS AND GFS MEANS SHOWING A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER PATTERN WHILE THE GFS OP RUNS
TENDING TO SIGNAL A QUICKER BREAKDOWN. ALSO NOTING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CROSSING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA AROUND THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
REMAIN WELL N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...FOR NOW.

HAVE LEANED THIS FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...AS THIS BLEND HAS SHOWN VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEN PUSHED CLOSER TO THE
EC/ECENS MEANS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH TEND TO BE SLOWER THAN MOST
OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT...WITH A STRONG
DOMINANT PATTERN IN PLACE SUCH AS WHAT WILL BE DEVELOPING...THIS
TENDS TO TAKE MORE TIME TO BREAK DOWN UNLESS SOME MAJOR SYSTEM
SHOWS UP IN THE OVERALL FLOW.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL LIFT NE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS H5 SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING IN...MAINLY ACROSS S NH/N
CENTRAL AND W MA. WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SW WINDS TO SHIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S OF
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND H5 HEIGHTS RISING WITH BROAD RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT... LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...EXCEPT FROM 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WED NIGHT AS TEMPS FINALLY FALL BACK TO THE 50S...THOUGH HOLDING
IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM...WHICH MAY HELP TO PROMOTE THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECT DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPTS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...BUT
LOOK TO START CREEPING BACK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH WILL
SLIP OFF THE COAST AND SW WINDS TAKE OVER. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AGAIN...THOUGH SOME READINGS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 80S WELL INLAND ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AT THIS POINT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION DURING SAT...PUSHING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

THROUGH 00Z...IFR CIGS LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS. SEA BREEZE ALONG BOTH COASTS
RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT LOGAN.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHRA/TSRA ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE WILL
AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING SHRA/TSRA TO END
AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.  SEABREEZE CONTINUES THROUGH SUNSET.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SW NH AND NORTH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN PLACE...MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AS
WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL START AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE WATERS OCCURRING SOUTH OF BOSTON.

TONIGHT...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH EARLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH POOR VISIBILITY.

TUESDAY...
AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING
DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY THREATEN THE
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD EVENING. TSTMS COULD CAUSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY
SEE SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO W AND DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING. WINDS BACK
AROUND TO SW AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...RLG/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 011752
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.  IT WILL REMAIN HUMID...AS
TEMPERATURES COULD TURN EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE IN SOUTHERN AREAS AS ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. EVEN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS ARE SEEING
SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.
BASED ON MIXING POTENTIAL WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS AND AT LEAST SOME
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS...MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN SOUTHERN AREAS...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD VFR CONDITIONS INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY IN
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN ISOLD THREAT
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR KPOU...BUT WE ELECTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT OF THE TAF THERE AT THIS TIME WITH THE PROBS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.

THE SKIES WILL INITIALLY BE CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN
CIRRUS AROUND. THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW AREAS OF MIST OR FOG TO FORM SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN
06Z-12Z. KPOU WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS CLOSER TO
08Z-12Z. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-
14Z...WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KPSF...AND KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 5 KTS OR
LESS. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4-7 KTS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 011752
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.  IT WILL REMAIN HUMID...AS
TEMPERATURES COULD TURN EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE IN SOUTHERN AREAS AS ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. EVEN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS ARE SEEING
SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.
BASED ON MIXING POTENTIAL WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS AND AT LEAST SOME
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS...MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN SOUTHERN AREAS...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD VFR CONDITIONS INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY IN
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN ISOLD THREAT
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR KPOU...BUT WE ELECTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT OF THE TAF THERE AT THIS TIME WITH THE PROBS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.

THE SKIES WILL INITIALLY BE CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN
CIRRUS AROUND. THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW AREAS OF MIST OR FOG TO FORM SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN
06Z-12Z. KPOU WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS CLOSER TO
08Z-12Z. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-
14Z...WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KPSF...AND KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 5 KTS OR
LESS. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4-7 KTS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 011707
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
107 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.  IT WILL REMAIN HUMID...AS
TEMPERATURES COULD TURN EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE IN SOUTHERN AREAS AS ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. EVEN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS ARE SEEING
SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.
BASED ON MIXING POTENTIAL WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS AND AT LEAST SOME
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS...MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN SOUTHERN AREAS...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT
THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES TO 12Z-14Z THIS MORNING...WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR VSBYS AT KPOU THROUGH 14Z. AFTER AROUND
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG
FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE FORECAST CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 011434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.  IT WILL REMAIN HUMID...AS
TEMPERATURES COULD TURN EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1034 AM EDT...A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...AS THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SOME DRYING ALOFT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND.
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER SE CANADA...W-CNTRL NY
AND PA THIS MORNING.

THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS PM
WITH A MID LEVEL CAP SETTING UP...AND A LACK OF A GOOD FOCUSING
MECHANISM. THE BEST CHC FOR AN ISOLD-SCT POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SBCAPE VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THERE...AND THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BTWN THE MTNS/VALLEYS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME POP-UP ACTIVITY. ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WERE ONLY KEPT IN THE FCST
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR MAINLY THE MID TO LATE PM.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S...WITH A FEW
U80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT. EXPECT U70S TO L80S OVER THE
MTNS. IT WILL REMAIN VERY HUMIDITY WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M60S TO
L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT
THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES TO 12Z-14Z THIS MORNING...WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR VSBYS AT KPOU THROUGH 14Z. AFTER AROUND
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG
FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE FORECAST CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 011434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.  IT WILL REMAIN HUMID...AS
TEMPERATURES COULD TURN EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1034 AM EDT...A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...AS THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SOME DRYING ALOFT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND.
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER SE CANADA...W-CNTRL NY
AND PA THIS MORNING.

THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS PM
WITH A MID LEVEL CAP SETTING UP...AND A LACK OF A GOOD FOCUSING
MECHANISM. THE BEST CHC FOR AN ISOLD-SCT POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SBCAPE VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THERE...AND THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BTWN THE MTNS/VALLEYS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME POP-UP ACTIVITY. ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WERE ONLY KEPT IN THE FCST
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR MAINLY THE MID TO LATE PM.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S...WITH A FEW
U80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT. EXPECT U70S TO L80S OVER THE
MTNS. IT WILL REMAIN VERY HUMIDITY WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M60S TO
L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT
THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES TO 12Z-14Z THIS MORNING...WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR VSBYS AT KPOU THROUGH 14Z. AFTER AROUND
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG
FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE FORECAST CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 011434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.  IT WILL REMAIN HUMID...AS
TEMPERATURES COULD TURN EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1034 AM EDT...A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...AS THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SOME DRYING ALOFT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND.
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER SE CANADA...W-CNTRL NY
AND PA THIS MORNING.

THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS PM
WITH A MID LEVEL CAP SETTING UP...AND A LACK OF A GOOD FOCUSING
MECHANISM. THE BEST CHC FOR AN ISOLD-SCT POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SBCAPE VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THERE...AND THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BTWN THE MTNS/VALLEYS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME POP-UP ACTIVITY. ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WERE ONLY KEPT IN THE FCST
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR MAINLY THE MID TO LATE PM.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S...WITH A FEW
U80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT. EXPECT U70S TO L80S OVER THE
MTNS. IT WILL REMAIN VERY HUMIDITY WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M60S TO
L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT
THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES TO 12Z-14Z THIS MORNING...WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR VSBYS AT KPOU THROUGH 14Z. AFTER AROUND
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG
FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE FORECAST CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 011434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.  IT WILL REMAIN HUMID...AS
TEMPERATURES COULD TURN EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1034 AM EDT...A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...AS THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SOME DRYING ALOFT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND.
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER SE CANADA...W-CNTRL NY
AND PA THIS MORNING.

THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS PM
WITH A MID LEVEL CAP SETTING UP...AND A LACK OF A GOOD FOCUSING
MECHANISM. THE BEST CHC FOR AN ISOLD-SCT POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SBCAPE VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE THERE...AND THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BTWN THE MTNS/VALLEYS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME POP-UP ACTIVITY. ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM WERE ONLY KEPT IN THE FCST
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR MAINLY THE MID TO LATE PM.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S...WITH A FEW
U80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT. EXPECT U70S TO L80S OVER THE
MTNS. IT WILL REMAIN VERY HUMIDITY WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M60S TO
L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT
THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES TO 12Z-14Z THIS MORNING...WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR VSBYS AT KPOU THROUGH 14Z. AFTER AROUND
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG
FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE FORECAST CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KBOX 011421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTH COAST
THIS MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT DIURNAL CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLEARING.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST WAS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WARM HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. A FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE WILL
SERVE AS FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. MEANWHILE...2 INCH VALUES LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FUEL FOR ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS
BUT LIKELY NOT AT SEVERE LEVELS. TOTALS START LOW AND CLIMB TO
46-47 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS.
THE GFS SHOWS SHOWS SBCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY IN
CT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY...20-30 M2/S2.
POPS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE
SOUTH COAST. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5-2.0 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...ANY STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. MAX SFC
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING BUT DIMINISHING. HIGH HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WIND WILL AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
MIN SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS...MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT APPROACH WESTERN
MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE. TOTALS ON THE GFS ARE 50-51 WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GGEM ARE 47-48. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6C/KM.
SBCAPES ARE 500-1000 J/KG BY THE GFS HINTS AT 1000-1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WE WILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH AND
DIMINISHING VALUES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE...AS H5 TROUGH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
ONTARIO AS IT FLATTENS OUT. THE UPPER PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY FALL...WITH BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE...WITH
THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF OP RUNS AS WELL AS ECENS AND GFS MEANS SHOWING A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER PATTERN WHILE THE GFS OP RUNS
TENDING TO SIGNAL A QUICKER BREAKDOWN. ALSO NOTING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CROSSING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA AROUND THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
REMAIN WELL N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...FOR NOW.

HAVE LEANED THIS FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...AS THIS BLEND HAS SHOWN VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEN PUSHED CLOSER TO THE
EC/ECENS MEANS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH TEND TO BE SLOWER THAN MOST
OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT...WITH A STRONG
DOMINANT PATTERN IN PLACE SUCH AS WHAT WILL BE DEVELOPING...THIS
TENDS TO TAKE MORE TIME TO BREAK DOWN UNLESS SOME MAJOR SYSTEM
SHOWS UP IN THE OVERALL FLOW.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL LIFT NE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS H5 SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING IN...MAINLY ACROSS S NH/N
CENTRAL AND W MA. WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SW WINDS TO SHIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S OF
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND H5 HEIGHTS RISING WITH BROAD RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT... LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...EXCEPT FROM 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WED NIGHT AS TEMPS FINALLY FALL BACK TO THE 50S...THOUGH HOLDING
IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM...WHICH MAY HELP TO PROMOTE THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECT DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPTS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...BUT
LOOK TO START CREEPING BACK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH WILL
SLIP OFF THE COAST AND SW WINDS TAKE OVER. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AGAIN...THOUGH SOME READINGS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 80S WELL INLAND ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AT THIS POINT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION DURING SAT...PUSHING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY
TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS HOLD
IN. EXPECT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SW NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN
PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL START AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE WATERS OCCURRING SOUTH OF BOSTON.

TONIGHT...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH EARLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH POOR VISIBILITY.

TUESDAY...
AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING
DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY THREATEN THE
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD EVENING. TSTMS COULD CAUSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY
SEE SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO W AND DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING. WINDS BACK
AROUND TO SW AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTH COAST
THIS MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT DIURNAL CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLEARING.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST WAS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WARM HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. A FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE WILL
SERVE AS FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. MEANWHILE...2 INCH VALUES LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FUEL FOR ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS
BUT LIKELY NOT AT SEVERE LEVELS. TOTALS START LOW AND CLIMB TO
46-47 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS.
THE GFS SHOWS SHOWS SBCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY IN
CT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY...20-30 M2/S2.
POPS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE
SOUTH COAST. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5-2.0 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...ANY STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. MAX SFC
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING BUT DIMINISHING. HIGH HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WIND WILL AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
MIN SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS...MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT APPROACH WESTERN
MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE. TOTALS ON THE GFS ARE 50-51 WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GGEM ARE 47-48. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6C/KM.
SBCAPES ARE 500-1000 J/KG BY THE GFS HINTS AT 1000-1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WE WILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH AND
DIMINISHING VALUES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE...AS H5 TROUGH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
ONTARIO AS IT FLATTENS OUT. THE UPPER PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY FALL...WITH BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE...WITH
THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF OP RUNS AS WELL AS ECENS AND GFS MEANS SHOWING A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER PATTERN WHILE THE GFS OP RUNS
TENDING TO SIGNAL A QUICKER BREAKDOWN. ALSO NOTING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CROSSING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA AROUND THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
REMAIN WELL N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...FOR NOW.

HAVE LEANED THIS FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...AS THIS BLEND HAS SHOWN VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEN PUSHED CLOSER TO THE
EC/ECENS MEANS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH TEND TO BE SLOWER THAN MOST
OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT...WITH A STRONG
DOMINANT PATTERN IN PLACE SUCH AS WHAT WILL BE DEVELOPING...THIS
TENDS TO TAKE MORE TIME TO BREAK DOWN UNLESS SOME MAJOR SYSTEM
SHOWS UP IN THE OVERALL FLOW.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL LIFT NE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS H5 SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING IN...MAINLY ACROSS S NH/N
CENTRAL AND W MA. WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SW WINDS TO SHIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S OF
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND H5 HEIGHTS RISING WITH BROAD RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT... LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...EXCEPT FROM 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WED NIGHT AS TEMPS FINALLY FALL BACK TO THE 50S...THOUGH HOLDING
IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM...WHICH MAY HELP TO PROMOTE THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECT DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPTS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...BUT
LOOK TO START CREEPING BACK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH WILL
SLIP OFF THE COAST AND SW WINDS TAKE OVER. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AGAIN...THOUGH SOME READINGS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 80S WELL INLAND ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AT THIS POINT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION DURING SAT...PUSHING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY
TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS HOLD
IN. EXPECT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SW NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN
PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL START AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE WATERS OCCURRING SOUTH OF BOSTON.

TONIGHT...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH EARLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH POOR VISIBILITY.

TUESDAY...
AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING
DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY THREATEN THE
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD EVENING. TSTMS COULD CAUSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY
SEE SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO W AND DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING. WINDS BACK
AROUND TO SW AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
803 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
750 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF RAIN CONFINED S OF THE ISLANDS AT 1130Z. NOTING AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE HIGHEST DEWPTS /AROUND 70 DEGS/
GENERALLY ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE BREAKING
ACROSS S NH/NE MA WITH IMPROVING VSBYS. IR SATELLITE SHOWING THOSE
CLOUD BREAKS AS WELL.

SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING BEFORE MORE DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. A FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE WILL
SERVE AS FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. MEANWHILE...2 INCH VALUES LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FUEL FOR ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS
BUT LIKELY NOT AT SEVERE LEVELS. TOTALS START LOW AND CLIMB TO
46-47 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS.
THE GFS SHOWS SHOWS SBCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY IN
CT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY...20-30 M2/S2.
POPS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE
SOUTH COAST. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5-2.0 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...ANY STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. MAX SFC
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING BUT DIMINISHING. HIGH HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WIND WILL AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
MIN SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS...MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT APPROACH WESTERN
MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE. TOTALS ON THE GFS ARE 50-51 WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GGEM ARE 47-48. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6C/KM.
SBCAPES ARE 500-1000 J/KG BY THE GFS HINTS AT 1000-1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WE WILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH AND
DIMINISHING VALUES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE...AS H5 TROUGH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
ONTARIO AS IT FLATTENS OUT. THE UPPER PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY FALL...WITH BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE...WITH
THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF OP RUNS AS WELL AS ECENS AND GFS MEANS SHOWING A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER PATTERN WHILE THE GFS OP RUNS
TENDING TO SIGNAL A QUICKER BREAKDOWN. ALSO NOTING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CROSSING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA AROUND THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
REMAIN WELL N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...FOR NOW.

HAVE LEANED THIS FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...AS THIS BLEND HAS SHOWN VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEN PUSHED CLOSER TO THE
EC/ECENS MEANS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH TEND TO BE SLOWER THAN MOST
OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT...WITH A STRONG
DOMINANT PATTERN IN PLACE SUCH AS WHAT WILL BE DEVELOPING...THIS
TENDS TO TAKE MORE TIME TO BREAK DOWN UNLESS SOME MAJOR SYSTEM
SHOWS UP IN THE OVERALL FLOW.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL LIFT NE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS H5 SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING IN...MAINLY ACROSS S NH/N
CENTRAL AND W MA. WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SW WINDS TO SHIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S OF
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND H5 HEIGHTS RISING WITH BROAD RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT... LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...EXCEPT FROM 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WED NIGHT AS TEMPS FINALLY FALL BACK TO THE 50S...THOUGH HOLDING
IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM...WHICH MAY HELP TO PROMOTE THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECT DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPTS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...BUT
LOOK TO START CREEPING BACK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH WILL
SLIP OFF THE COAST AND SW WINDS TAKE OVER. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AGAIN...THOUGH SOME READINGS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 80S WELL INLAND ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AT THIS POINT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION DURING SAT...PUSHING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY
TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS HOLD
IN. EXPECT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SW NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN
PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL START AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE WATERS OCCURRING SOUTH OF BOSTON.

TONIGHT...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH EARLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH POOR VISIBILITY.

TUESDAY...
AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING
DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY THREATEN THE
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD EVENING. TSTMS COULD CAUSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY
SEE SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO W AND DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING. WINDS BACK
AROUND TO SW AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
803 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
750 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF RAIN CONFINED S OF THE ISLANDS AT 1130Z. NOTING AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE HIGHEST DEWPTS /AROUND 70 DEGS/
GENERALLY ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE BREAKING
ACROSS S NH/NE MA WITH IMPROVING VSBYS. IR SATELLITE SHOWING THOSE
CLOUD BREAKS AS WELL.

SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING BEFORE MORE DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. A FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE WILL
SERVE AS FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. MEANWHILE...2 INCH VALUES LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FUEL FOR ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS
BUT LIKELY NOT AT SEVERE LEVELS. TOTALS START LOW AND CLIMB TO
46-47 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS.
THE GFS SHOWS SHOWS SBCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY IN
CT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY...20-30 M2/S2.
POPS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE
SOUTH COAST. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5-2.0 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...ANY STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. MAX SFC
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING BUT DIMINISHING. HIGH HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WIND WILL AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
MIN SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS...MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT APPROACH WESTERN
MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE. TOTALS ON THE GFS ARE 50-51 WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GGEM ARE 47-48. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6C/KM.
SBCAPES ARE 500-1000 J/KG BY THE GFS HINTS AT 1000-1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WE WILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH AND
DIMINISHING VALUES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE...AS H5 TROUGH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
ONTARIO AS IT FLATTENS OUT. THE UPPER PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY FALL...WITH BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE...WITH
THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF OP RUNS AS WELL AS ECENS AND GFS MEANS SHOWING A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER PATTERN WHILE THE GFS OP RUNS
TENDING TO SIGNAL A QUICKER BREAKDOWN. ALSO NOTING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CROSSING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA AROUND THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
REMAIN WELL N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...FOR NOW.

HAVE LEANED THIS FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...AS THIS BLEND HAS SHOWN VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEN PUSHED CLOSER TO THE
EC/ECENS MEANS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH TEND TO BE SLOWER THAN MOST
OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT...WITH A STRONG
DOMINANT PATTERN IN PLACE SUCH AS WHAT WILL BE DEVELOPING...THIS
TENDS TO TAKE MORE TIME TO BREAK DOWN UNLESS SOME MAJOR SYSTEM
SHOWS UP IN THE OVERALL FLOW.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL LIFT NE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS H5 SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING IN...MAINLY ACROSS S NH/N
CENTRAL AND W MA. WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SW WINDS TO SHIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S OF
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND H5 HEIGHTS RISING WITH BROAD RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT... LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...EXCEPT FROM 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WED NIGHT AS TEMPS FINALLY FALL BACK TO THE 50S...THOUGH HOLDING
IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM...WHICH MAY HELP TO PROMOTE THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECT DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPTS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...BUT
LOOK TO START CREEPING BACK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH WILL
SLIP OFF THE COAST AND SW WINDS TAKE OVER. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AGAIN...THOUGH SOME READINGS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 80S WELL INLAND ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AT THIS POINT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION DURING SAT...PUSHING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY
TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS HOLD
IN. EXPECT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SW NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN
PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL START AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE WATERS OCCURRING SOUTH OF BOSTON.

TONIGHT...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH EARLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH POOR VISIBILITY.

TUESDAY...
AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING
DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY THREATEN THE
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD EVENING. TSTMS COULD CAUSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY
SEE SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO W AND DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING. WINDS BACK
AROUND TO SW AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
800 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
750 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF RAIN CONFINED S OF THE ISLANDS AT 1130Z. NOTING AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE HIGHEST DEWPTS /AROUND 70 DEGS/
GENERALLY ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE BREAKING
ACROSS S NH/NE MA WITH IMPROVING VSBYS. IR SATELLITE SHOWING THOSE
CLOUD BREAKS AS WELL.

SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING BEFORE MORE DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. A FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE WILL
SERVE AS FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. MEANWHILE...2 INCH VALUES LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FUEL FOR ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS
BUT LIKELY NOT AT SEVERE LEVELS. TOTALS START LOW AND CLIMB TO
46-47 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS.
THE GFS SHOWS SHOWS SBCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY IN
CT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY...20-30 M2/S2.
POPS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE
SOUTH COAST. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5-2.0 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...ANY STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. MAX SFC
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING BUT DIMINISHING. HIGH HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WIND WILL AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
MIN SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS...MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT APPROACH WESTERN
MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE. TOTALS ON THE GFS ARE 50-51 WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GGEM ARE 47-48. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6C/KM.
SBCAPES ARE 500-1000 J/KG BY THE GFS HINTS AT 1000-1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WE WILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH AND
DIMINISHING VALUES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE...AS H5 TROUGH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
ONTARIO AS IT FLATTENS OUT. THE UPPER PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY FALL...WITH BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE...WITH
THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF OP RUNS AS WELL AS ECENS AND GFS MEANS SHOWING A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER PATTERN WHILE THE GFS OP RUNS
TENDING TO SIGNAL A QUICKER BREAKDOWN. ALSO NOTING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CROSSING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA AROUND THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
REMAIN WELL N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...FOR NOW.

HAVE LEANED THIS FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...AS THIS BLEND HAS SHOWN VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEN PUSHED CLOSER TO THE
EC/ECENS MEANS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH TEND TO BE SLOWER THAN MOST
OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT...WITH A STRONG
DOMINANT PATTERN IN PLACE SUCH AS WHAT WILL BE DEVELOPING...THIS
TENDS TO TAKE MORE TIME TO BREAK DOWN UNLESS SOME MAJOR SYSTEM
SHOWS UP IN THE OVERALL FLOW.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL LIFT NE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS H5 SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING IN...MAINLY ACROSS S NH/N
CENTRAL AND W MA. WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SW WINDS TO SHIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S OF
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND H5 HEIGHTS RISING WITH BROAD RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT... LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...EXCEPT FROM 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WED NIGHT AS TEMPS FINALLY FALL BACK TO THE 50S...THOUGH HOLDING
IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM...WHICH MAY HELP TO PROMOTE THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECT DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPTS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...BUT
LOOK TO START CREEPING BACK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH WILL
SLIP OFF THE COAST AND SW WINDS TAKE OVER. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AGAIN...THOUGH SOME READINGS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 80S WELL INLAND ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AT THIS POINT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION DURING SAT...PUSHING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS...AND ALONG
CAPE COD BAY. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS HOLD
IN. EXPECT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SW NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN
PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL START AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE WATERS OCCURRING SOUTH OF BOSTON.

TONIGHT...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH EARLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH POOR VISIBILITY.

TUESDAY...
AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING
DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY THREATEN THE
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD EVENING. TSTMS COULD CAUSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY
SEE SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO W AND DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING. WINDS BACK
AROUND TO SW AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
800 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
750 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF RAIN CONFINED S OF THE ISLANDS AT 1130Z. NOTING AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH THE HIGHEST DEWPTS /AROUND 70 DEGS/
GENERALLY ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE BREAKING
ACROSS S NH/NE MA WITH IMPROVING VSBYS. IR SATELLITE SHOWING THOSE
CLOUD BREAKS AS WELL.

SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING BEFORE MORE DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. A FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE WILL
SERVE AS FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. MEANWHILE...2 INCH VALUES LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FUEL FOR ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS
BUT LIKELY NOT AT SEVERE LEVELS. TOTALS START LOW AND CLIMB TO
46-47 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS.
THE GFS SHOWS SHOWS SBCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY IN
CT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY...20-30 M2/S2.
POPS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE
SOUTH COAST. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5-2.0 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...ANY STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. MAX SFC
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING BUT DIMINISHING. HIGH HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WIND WILL AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
MIN SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS...MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT APPROACH WESTERN
MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE. TOTALS ON THE GFS ARE 50-51 WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GGEM ARE 47-48. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6C/KM.
SBCAPES ARE 500-1000 J/KG BY THE GFS HINTS AT 1000-1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WE WILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH AND
DIMINISHING VALUES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE...AS H5 TROUGH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
ONTARIO AS IT FLATTENS OUT. THE UPPER PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY FALL...WITH BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE...WITH
THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF OP RUNS AS WELL AS ECENS AND GFS MEANS SHOWING A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER PATTERN WHILE THE GFS OP RUNS
TENDING TO SIGNAL A QUICKER BREAKDOWN. ALSO NOTING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CROSSING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA AROUND THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
REMAIN WELL N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...FOR NOW.

HAVE LEANED THIS FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...AS THIS BLEND HAS SHOWN VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEN PUSHED CLOSER TO THE
EC/ECENS MEANS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH TEND TO BE SLOWER THAN MOST
OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT...WITH A STRONG
DOMINANT PATTERN IN PLACE SUCH AS WHAT WILL BE DEVELOPING...THIS
TENDS TO TAKE MORE TIME TO BREAK DOWN UNLESS SOME MAJOR SYSTEM
SHOWS UP IN THE OVERALL FLOW.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL LIFT NE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS H5 SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING IN...MAINLY ACROSS S NH/N
CENTRAL AND W MA. WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SW WINDS TO SHIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S OF
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND H5 HEIGHTS RISING WITH BROAD RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT... LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...EXCEPT FROM 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WED NIGHT AS TEMPS FINALLY FALL BACK TO THE 50S...THOUGH HOLDING
IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM...WHICH MAY HELP TO PROMOTE THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECT DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPTS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...BUT
LOOK TO START CREEPING BACK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH WILL
SLIP OFF THE COAST AND SW WINDS TAKE OVER. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AGAIN...THOUGH SOME READINGS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 80S WELL INLAND ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AT THIS POINT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION DURING SAT...PUSHING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS...AND ALONG
CAPE COD BAY. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS HOLD
IN. EXPECT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SW NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN
PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL START AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE WATERS OCCURRING SOUTH OF BOSTON.

TONIGHT...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH EARLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH POOR VISIBILITY.

TUESDAY...
AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING
DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY THREATEN THE
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD EVENING. TSTMS COULD CAUSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY
SEE SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO W AND DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING. WINDS BACK
AROUND TO SW AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KALY 011147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
747 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ONE MORE UPDATE AS RADAR NOW INDICATED SOME WEAK
RETURNS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF ALBANY.
SUSPECT THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HILLTOWNS AND
EVEN A LITTLE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE VALLEYS. WE INCLUDED DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH THE FOG (MORE EXTENSIVE HIGHER TERRAIN) UNTIL 900 AM EDT.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT
THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES TO 12Z-14Z THIS MORNING...WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR VSBYS AT KPOU THROUGH 14Z. AFTER AROUND
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG
FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE FORECAST CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 011147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
747 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ONE MORE UPDATE AS RADAR NOW INDICATED SOME WEAK
RETURNS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF ALBANY.
SUSPECT THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HILLTOWNS AND
EVEN A LITTLE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE VALLEYS. WE INCLUDED DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH THE FOG (MORE EXTENSIVE HIGHER TERRAIN) UNTIL 900 AM EDT.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT
THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES TO 12Z-14Z THIS MORNING...WITH VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR VSBYS AT KPOU THROUGH 14Z. AFTER AROUND
13Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE
TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG
FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE FORECAST CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 011046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ONE MORE UPDATE AS RADAR NOW INDICATED SOME WEAK
RETURNS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF ALBANY.
SUSPECT THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HILLTOWNS AND
EVEN A LITTLE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE VALLEYS. WE INCLUDED DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH THE FOG (MORE EXTENSIVE HIGHER TERRAIN) UNTIL 900 AM EDT.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 011035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...DEALING WITH PATCHES TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. GROUND TRUTH
INDICATED VISIBILITY GENERALLY BETTER THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE...SO
AT THIS TIME...WE PLAN NO DENSE FOG ADVISORIES OR SPECIAL STATEMENTS
REGARDING THE FOG.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 011035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...DEALING WITH PATCHES TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. GROUND TRUTH
INDICATED VISIBILITY GENERALLY BETTER THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE...SO
AT THIS TIME...WE PLAN NO DENSE FOG ADVISORIES OR SPECIAL STATEMENTS
REGARDING THE FOG.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 011005
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
605 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


CORRECTED CAPE VALUE IN THE THIRD PARAGRAPH OF THE NEAR
TERM...SHOULD BE 1500 J/KG.









000
FXUS61 KALY 011005
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
605 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


CORRECTED CAPE VALUE IN THE THIRD PARAGRAPH OF THE NEAR
TERM...SHOULD BE 1500 J/KG.










000
FXUS61 KALY 010849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 010849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 010849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 010849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBOX 010827
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
427 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
WARM HUMID AIR IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
RI AND MASS...AS WELL AS IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SHOULD PASS
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS TOWARD SUNRISE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
THE SHOWERS COULD CLIP NANTUCKET.

TODAY...
WARM HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. A FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE WILL
SERVE AS FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. MEANWHILE 2 INCH VALUES LINGER ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FUEL FOR ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS
BUT LIKELY NOT AT SEVERE LEVELS. TOTALS START LOW AND CLIMB TO
46-47 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS.
THE GFS SHOWS SHOWS SBCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY IN
CT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY...20-30 M2/S2.
POPS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE
SOUTH COAST. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5-2.0 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...ANY STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
MAX SFC TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING BUT DIMINISHING. HIGH HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WIND WILL AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
MIN SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS...MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT APPROACH WESTERN
MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE. TOTALS ON THE GFS ARE 50-51 WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GGEM ARE 47-48. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6C/KM.
SBCAPES ARE 500-1000 J/KG BY THE GFS HINTS AT 1000-1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WE WILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH AND
DIMINISHING VALUES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE...AS H5 TROUGH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND
ONTARIO AS IT FLATTENS OUT. THE UPPER PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE
TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY FALL...WITH BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATING FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. BEYOND
THIS...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE...WITH
THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF OP RUNS AS WELL AS ECENS AND GFS MEANS SHOWING A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER PATTERN WHILE THE GFS OP RUNS
TENDING TO SIGNAL A QUICKER BREAKDOWN. ALSO NOTING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CROSSING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA AROUND THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
REMAIN WELL N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...FOR NOW.

HAVE LEANED THIS FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...AS THIS BLEND HAS SHOWN VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEN PUSHED CLOSER TO THE
EC/ECENS MEANS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHICH TEND TO BE SLOWER THAN MOST
OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT...WITH A STRONG
DOMINANT PATTERN IN PLACE SUCH AS WHAT WILL BE DEVELOPING...THIS
TENDS TO TAKE MORE TIME TO BREAK DOWN UNLESS SOME MAJOR SYSTEM
SHOWS UP IN THE OVERALL FLOW.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL LIFT NE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS H5 SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING IN...MAINLY ACROSS S NH/N
CENTRAL AND W MA. WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SW WINDS TO SHIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL HOLD IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S OF
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE AND H5 HEIGHTS RISING WITH BROAD RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT... LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. TEMPS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...EXCEPT FROM 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS
WED NIGHT AS TEMPS FINALLY FALL BACK TO THE 50S...THOUGH HOLDING
IN THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM...WHICH MAY HELP TO PROMOTE THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECT DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPTS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...BUT
LOOK TO START CREEPING BACK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH WILL
SLIP OFF THE COAST AND SW WINDS TAKE OVER. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AGAIN...THOUGH SOME READINGS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 80S WELL INLAND ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AT THIS POINT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION DURING SAT...PUSHING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS...AND ALONG
CAPE COD BAY. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS HOLD
IN. EXPECT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SW NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN
PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG ALONG THE S COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL START AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE WATERS OCCURRING SOUTH OF BOSTON.

TONIGHT...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH EARLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH POOR VISIBILITY.

TUESDAY...
AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING
DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY THREATEN THE
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD EVENING. TSTMS COULD CAUSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY
SEE SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO W AND DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING. WINDS BACK
AROUND TO SW AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT/FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010740
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
340 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL
THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THROUGH 8 AM...
WARM HUMID AIR IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
RI AND MASS...AS WELL AS IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SHOULD PASS
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS TOWARD SUNRISE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
THE SHOWERS COULD CLIP NANTUCKET.

TODAY...
WARM HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. A FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE WILL
SERVE AS FOCII FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. MEANWHILE 2 INCH VALUES LINGER ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FUEL FOR ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS
BUT LIKELY NOT AT SEVERE LEVELS. TOTALS START LOW AND CLIMB TO
46-47 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS.
THE GFS SHOWS SHOWS SBCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY IN
CT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY...20-30 M2/S2.
POPS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE
SOUTH COAST. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5-2.0 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...ANY STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
MAX SFC TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING BUT DIMINISHING. HIGH HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WIND WILL AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
MIN SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS...MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT APPROACH WESTERN
MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE. TOTALS ON THE GFS ARE 50-51 WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GGEM ARE 47-48. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6C/KM.
SBCAPES ARE 500-1000 J/KG BY THE GFS HINTS AT 1000-1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WE WILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH AND
DIMINISHING VALUES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH A GENERAL WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS...AND ALONG
CAPE COD BAY. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTUBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER
05Z-06Z WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL START AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE WATERS OCCURING SOUTH OF BOSTON.

TONIGHT...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH EARLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH POOR VISIBILITY.

TUESDAY...
AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING
DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY THREATEN THE
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD EVENING. TSTMS COULD CAUSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...WTB/BELK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010740
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
340 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL
THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THROUGH 8 AM...
WARM HUMID AIR IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
RI AND MASS...AS WELL AS IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SHOULD PASS
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS TOWARD SUNRISE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
THE SHOWERS COULD CLIP NANTUCKET.

TODAY...
WARM HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. A FRONT
IS STALLED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE A LEE TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE WILL
SERVE AS FOCII FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. MEANWHILE 2 INCH VALUES LINGER ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FUEL FOR ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS
BUT LIKELY NOT AT SEVERE LEVELS. TOTALS START LOW AND CLIMB TO
46-47 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS CT-RI-SE MASS.
THE GFS SHOWS SHOWS SBCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG ESPECIALLY IN
CT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY...20-30 M2/S2.
POPS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE
SOUTH COAST. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5-2.0 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE MASS PIKE...ANY STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
MAX SFC TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING BUT DIMINISHING. HIGH HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WIND WILL AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
MIN SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS...MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY...
UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN NEW YORK BY EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE HUDSON AND DELAWARE VALLEYS. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT APPROACH WESTERN
MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE. TOTALS ON THE GFS ARE 50-51 WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GGEM ARE 47-48. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 6C/KM.
SBCAPES ARE 500-1000 J/KG BY THE GFS HINTS AT 1000-1500 J/KG.
OVERALL WE WILL FAVOR CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH AND
DIMINISHING VALUES FARTHER EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH A GENERAL WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS...AND ALONG
CAPE COD BAY. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTUBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER
05Z-06Z WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL START AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE WATERS OCCURING SOUTH OF BOSTON.

TONIGHT...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH EARLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH POOR VISIBILITY.

TUESDAY...
AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING
DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY THREATEN THE
COASTAL WATERS TOWARD EVENING. TSTMS COULD CAUSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...WTB/BELK




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