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000
FXUS61 KALY 241429
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...THE WARM FRONT LITERALLY SLIPPED NORTH OF I-90.
TEMPERATURES AT ALBANY JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S...60S FURTHER SOUTH.
FURTHER NORTH...THERE STILL READINGS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL WELL BACK IN THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY...NOT
REACHING OUR REGION UNTIL TONIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERED RAIN BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS).

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SPOTS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD POSSIBLY
MAKING A RUN AT 70. THE RECORD HIGH FOR ALBANY TODAY IS 69 DEGREES
SET BACK IN 1979.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF KALB. UPDATED ALL
TAFS TO REMOVE LLWS (EXCEPT KGFL) WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS YET TO GO
THROUGH.

ALSO...EXCEPT FOR KGFL...REMOVED ALL IFR...BUT KEPT CIGS AT LOW MVR
(EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED).

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z/MON FROM
SW TO NE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THE CLOUDS CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CIGS RISING TO HIGH END
MVFR...AND POSSIBLY VFR. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND
CAN MIX DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...ESP AT
KGFL AND PERHAPS KPOU.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS
WILL TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/TUE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH AROUND 13Z-
15Z/MON...AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT...WHILE SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 241429
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...THE WARM FRONT LITERALLY SLIPPED NORTH OF I-90.
TEMPERATURES AT ALBANY JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S...60S FURTHER SOUTH.
FURTHER NORTH...THERE STILL READINGS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL WELL BACK IN THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY...NOT
REACHING OUR REGION UNTIL TONIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERED RAIN BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS).

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SPOTS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD POSSIBLY
MAKING A RUN AT 70. THE RECORD HIGH FOR ALBANY TODAY IS 69 DEGREES
SET BACK IN 1979.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF KALB. UPDATED ALL
TAFS TO REMOVE LLWS (EXCEPT KGFL) WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS YET TO GO
THROUGH.

ALSO...EXCEPT FOR KGFL...REMOVED ALL IFR...BUT KEPT CIGS AT LOW MVR
(EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED).

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z/MON FROM
SW TO NE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THE CLOUDS CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CIGS RISING TO HIGH END
MVFR...AND POSSIBLY VFR. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND
CAN MIX DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...ESP AT
KGFL AND PERHAPS KPOU.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS
WILL TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/TUE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH AROUND 13Z-
15Z/MON...AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT...WHILE SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 241429
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...THE WARM FRONT LITERALLY SLIPPED NORTH OF I-90.
TEMPERATURES AT ALBANY JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S...60S FURTHER SOUTH.
FURTHER NORTH...THERE STILL READINGS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL WELL BACK IN THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY...NOT
REACHING OUR REGION UNTIL TONIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERED RAIN BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS).

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SPOTS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD POSSIBLY
MAKING A RUN AT 70. THE RECORD HIGH FOR ALBANY TODAY IS 69 DEGREES
SET BACK IN 1979.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF KALB. UPDATED ALL
TAFS TO REMOVE LLWS (EXCEPT KGFL) WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS YET TO GO
THROUGH.

ALSO...EXCEPT FOR KGFL...REMOVED ALL IFR...BUT KEPT CIGS AT LOW MVR
(EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED).

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z/MON FROM
SW TO NE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THE CLOUDS CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CIGS RISING TO HIGH END
MVFR...AND POSSIBLY VFR. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND
CAN MIX DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...ESP AT
KGFL AND PERHAPS KPOU.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS
WILL TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/TUE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH AROUND 13Z-
15Z/MON...AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT...WHILE SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 241429
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...THE WARM FRONT LITERALLY SLIPPED NORTH OF I-90.
TEMPERATURES AT ALBANY JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S...60S FURTHER SOUTH.
FURTHER NORTH...THERE STILL READINGS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL WELL BACK IN THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY...NOT
REACHING OUR REGION UNTIL TONIGHT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERED RAIN BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AND
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT CHANCE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS).

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON...WITH A SPOTS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD POSSIBLY
MAKING A RUN AT 70. THE RECORD HIGH FOR ALBANY TODAY IS 69 DEGREES
SET BACK IN 1979.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF KALB. UPDATED ALL
TAFS TO REMOVE LLWS (EXCEPT KGFL) WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS YET TO GO
THROUGH.

ALSO...EXCEPT FOR KGFL...REMOVED ALL IFR...BUT KEPT CIGS AT LOW MVR
(EXTRA FUEL REQUIRED).

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z/MON FROM
SW TO NE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THE CLOUDS CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CIGS RISING TO HIGH END
MVFR...AND POSSIBLY VFR. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND
CAN MIX DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...ESP AT
KGFL AND PERHAPS KPOU.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS
WILL TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/TUE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH AROUND 13Z-
15Z/MON...AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT...WHILE SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...11








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000
FXUS61 KBOX 241158
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
658 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

645 AM UPDATE...
AXIS OF RAINFALL RACING EAST ACROSS SNE THIS MORNING. DRY SLOT
ALREADY MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AND HEAVIEST RAIN IS BEGINNING
TO MOVE EAST OF CT VALLEY. LOOKING AT JUST A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING BEFORE DRY SLOT MOVES IN
AND RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN BUT COOLER AIR
HANGING TOUGH IN THE CT VALLEY WHERE STILL UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THIS COOL AIR WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH TEMPS
RISING QUICKLY THROUGH THE 50S. SEEING WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT NEAR
THE S COAST. POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT SE NEW ENG THROUGH 18Z AS LLJ
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
POTENT LOW LEVEL JET +4SD WILL TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS PWATS /+3 TO
+4SD/ NORTH INTO THE REGION TO BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE REGION. ELEVATED THUNDER INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE NOSE OF LLJ
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOTE
THAT DRY SLOT IS ALREADY MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA SO DURATION OF
STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN 6
HOURS...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF 13-16Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL
LIMIT QPF WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.50-1.00 ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. JUST THE TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST...
FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET 70-75 KT AT 925 MB WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SE NEW ENG 12-18Z. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT
AT THE TIME THE JET IS MOVING THROUGH SO THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FINE LINE OF CONVECTION. AND THIS IS NOT REALLY AN IDEAL SITUATION
FOR A FINE LINE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NO COLD FRONT.
TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE JET OFTEN IS A
DECENT STARTING POINT FOR ESTIMATING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WITH INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT
AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF REALIZING GUSTS TO 45+ MPH WILL BE
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL IN SE MA.

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. STEADY RAIN EXITS
13-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW
ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS 12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT IN TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS
LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KTS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KALY 241127
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT WIND GUSTS OF 42 KTS WAS REPORTED AT
KDDH (BENNINGTON ASOS), 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN ONCE THE
RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY THE
EARLY EVENING.

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z/MON FROM
SW TO NE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THE CLOUDS CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CIGS RISING TO MVFR...AND
POSSIBLY VFR. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM THE
WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND CAN MIX
DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...ESP AT KGFL AND
PERHAPS KPOU.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS
WILL TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/TUE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH AROUND 13Z-
15Z/MON...AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT...WHILE SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 241127
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT WIND GUSTS OF 42 KTS WAS REPORTED AT
KDDH (BENNINGTON ASOS), 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN ONCE THE
RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY THE
EARLY EVENING.

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z/MON FROM
SW TO NE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THE CLOUDS CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CIGS RISING TO MVFR...AND
POSSIBLY VFR. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM THE
WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND CAN MIX
DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...ESP AT KGFL AND
PERHAPS KPOU.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS
WILL TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/TUE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH AROUND 13Z-
15Z/MON...AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT...WHILE SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 241120
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT WIND GUSTS OF 42 KTS WAS REPORTED AT
KDDH (BENNINGTON ASOS), 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN ONCE THE
RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 241120
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT WIND GUSTS OF 42 KTS WAS REPORTED AT
KDDH (BENNINGTON ASOS), 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN ONCE THE
RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KBOX 240930
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. POTENT LOW LEVEL JET +4SD WILL
TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS PWATS /+3 TO +4SD/ NORTH INTO THE REGION TO
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION. ELEVATED THUNDER
INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE NOSE OF LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOTE THAT DRY SLOT IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA SO DURATION OF STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
SHORT LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF
13-16Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.50-1.00 ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. JUST THE TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST...
FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET 70-75 KT AT 925 MB WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SE NEW ENG 12-18Z. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT
AT THE TIME THE JET IS MOVING THROUGH SO THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FINE LINE OF CONVECTION. AND THIS IS NOT REALLY AN IDEAL SITUATION
FOR A FINE LINE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NO COLD FRONT.
TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE JET OFTEN IS A
DECENT STARTING POINT FOR ESTIMATING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WITH INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT
AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF REALIZING GUSTS TO 45+ MPH WILL BE
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL IN SE MA.

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KTS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 240930
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. POTENT LOW LEVEL JET +4SD WILL
TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS PWATS /+3 TO +4SD/ NORTH INTO THE REGION TO
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION. ELEVATED THUNDER
INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE NOSE OF LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOTE THAT DRY SLOT IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA SO DURATION OF STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
SHORT LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF
13-16Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.50-1.00 ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. JUST THE TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST...
FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET 70-75 KT AT 925 MB WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SE NEW ENG 12-18Z. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT
AT THE TIME THE JET IS MOVING THROUGH SO THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FINE LINE OF CONVECTION. AND THIS IS NOT REALLY AN IDEAL SITUATION
FOR A FINE LINE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NO COLD FRONT.
TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE JET OFTEN IS A
DECENT STARTING POINT FOR ESTIMATING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WITH INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT
AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF REALIZING GUSTS TO 45+ MPH WILL BE
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL IN SE MA.

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KTS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SPECIFIC
OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

RAIN BEGINNNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. POTENT LOW LEVEL JET +4SD WILL
TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS PWATS /+3 TO +4SD/ NORTH INTO THE REGION TO
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION. ELEVATED THUNDER
INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE NOSE OF LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOTE THAT DRY SLOT IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA SO DURATION OF STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
SHORT LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF
13-16Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.50-1.00 ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
ANOUNTS. JUST THE TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST...
FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET 70-75 KT AT 925 MB WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SE NEW ENG 12-18Z. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT
AT THE TIME THE JET IS MOVING THROUGH SO THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FINE LINE OF CONVECTION. AND THIS IS NOT REALLY AN IDEAL SITUATION
FOR A FINE LINE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NO COLD FRONT.
TAKING ABOUNT 50 PERCENT OF THE MAGNITIDE OF THE JET OFTEN IS A
DECENT STARTING POINT FOR ESTIMATING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WITH INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT
AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF REALIZING GUSTS TO 45+ MPH WILL BE
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE CAPE CAOD CANAL IN SE MA.

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMEBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SPECIFIC
OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

RAIN BEGINNNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. POTENT LOW LEVEL JET +4SD WILL
TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS PWATS /+3 TO +4SD/ NORTH INTO THE REGION TO
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION. ELEVATED THUNDER
INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE NOSE OF LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOTE THAT DRY SLOT IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA SO DURATION OF STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
SHORT LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF
13-16Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.50-1.00 ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
ANOUNTS. JUST THE TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST...
FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET 70-75 KT AT 925 MB WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SE NEW ENG 12-18Z. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT
AT THE TIME THE JET IS MOVING THROUGH SO THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FINE LINE OF CONVECTION. AND THIS IS NOT REALLY AN IDEAL SITUATION
FOR A FINE LINE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NO COLD FRONT.
TAKING ABOUNT 50 PERCENT OF THE MAGNITIDE OF THE JET OFTEN IS A
DECENT STARTING POINT FOR ESTIMATING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WITH INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT
AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF REALIZING GUSTS TO 45+ MPH WILL BE
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE CAPE CAOD CANAL IN SE MA.

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMEBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SPECIFIC
OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

RAIN BEGINNNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. POTENT LOW LEVEL JET +4SD WILL
TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS PWATS /+3 TO +4SD/ NORTH INTO THE REGION TO
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION. ELEVATED THUNDER
INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE NOSE OF LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOTE THAT DRY SLOT IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA SO DURATION OF STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
SHORT LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF
13-16Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.50-1.00 ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
ANOUNTS. JUST THE TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST...
FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET 70-75 KT AT 925 MB WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SE NEW ENG 12-18Z. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT
AT THE TIME THE JET IS MOVING THROUGH SO THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FINE LINE OF CONVECTION. AND THIS IS NOT REALLY AN IDEAL SITUATION
FOR A FINE LINE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NO COLD FRONT.
TAKING ABOUNT 50 PERCENT OF THE MAGNITIDE OF THE JET OFTEN IS A
DECENT STARTING POINT FOR ESTIMATING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WITH INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT
AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF REALIZING GUSTS TO 45+ MPH WILL BE
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE CAPE CAOD CANAL IN SE MA.

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMEBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SPECIFIC
OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

RAIN BEGINNNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK. POTENT LOW LEVEL JET +4SD WILL
TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS PWATS /+3 TO +4SD/ NORTH INTO THE REGION TO
BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION. ELEVATED THUNDER
INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE NOSE OF LLJ MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND NOTE THAT DRY SLOT IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA SO DURATION OF STEADIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
SHORT LIKELY LASTING NO MORE THAN 6 HOURS...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF
13-16Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AVERAGING 0.50-1.00 ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
ANOUNTS. JUST THE TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED.

STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ALONG SE NEW ENG COAST...
FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET 70-75 KT AT 925 MB WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS SE NEW ENG 12-18Z. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT
AT THE TIME THE JET IS MOVING THROUGH SO THIS WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH
OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FINE LINE OF CONVECTION. AND THIS IS NOT REALLY AN IDEAL SITUATION
FOR A FINE LINE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND NO COLD FRONT.
TAKING ABOUNT 50 PERCENT OF THE MAGNITIDE OF THE JET OFTEN IS A
DECENT STARTING POINT FOR ESTIMATING GUST POTENTIAL WITH THESE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WITH INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR G35-40 KT WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT
AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE OF REALIZING GUSTS TO 45+ MPH WILL BE
OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS NEAR THE CAPE CAOD CANAL IN SE MA.

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMEBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 240839
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
339 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK SOME
SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 240839
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
339 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK SOME
SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KBOX 240602
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
102 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET SPECIFIC OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1255 AM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS E PA AND NJ WILL BE MOVING INTO CT
AND W MA BY 08Z THEN REACHING E MA 10-12Z. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS FOR ONSET OF RAIN...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK. AREAS OF
FOG ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS LOW LEVEL
APPROACHES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
  ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...

1) BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING...BUT THE WEATHER WILL
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
INDUCE A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEEP
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 3 AND 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING SHOULD
YIELD A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. THUNDER INDICES ARE MARGINAL
BUT ENOUGH FORCING COULD GENERATE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. FORTUNATELY THE SYSTEM
IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO EXPECT THE STEADY/HEAVY RAIN TO BE OVER
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
0.50 TO 1 INCHES IN MOST LOCALES...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GENERATE ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...OTHER THAN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING WHICH WILL UNFORTUNATELY COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY
AM RUSH HOUR.

2) STRONG WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE INVERSION...ITS ALWAYS TRICKY TO SEE
HOW MUCH WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE GROUND. LOW
LEVEL JET AT 850 MB IS AROUND 80 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. TAKING HALF OF THAT OFTEN CAN
GET YOU IN THE BALL PARK OF WHAT WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THEREFORE...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. IF WE CAN GET A FINE LINE GOING...CONFIDENCE WOULD INCREASE
MORE IN BEING ABLE TO BRING THE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND.
NONETHELESS...STILL THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH THE ADVISORY.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE WILL HAVE LIFTED TO OUR NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE STEADY AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
HAVE COME TO AN END. WE WILL STILL HAVE A LOT OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT/MOISTURE AROUND FOR A FEW PASSING SHOWERS SO MAINTAINED SOME
POPS. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +10 TO +12C. DESPITE A
LOT OF CLOUDS...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE
WELL INTO THE 60S. NOT SURE IF WE WILL SEE MUCH SUN GIVEN SO MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT IF WE END UP WITH MORE THAN EXPECTED SOME
LOCATIONS COULD REACH OR EXCEED 70. REGARDLESS...WILL ACTUALLY
FEEL A BIT MUGGY FOR LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH DEWPOINTS
CLOSE TO 60! ALSO...THERE IS A LOT OF WIND JUST OFF THE DECK INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP EVEN
IN THE INTERIOR...DEPENDING ON IF WE CAN MUSTER ANY PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE.

THIS COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

DEEPENING LOW LIFTING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL INDUCE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT MONDAY MORNING. WHILE POTENTIAL MIXING TO THE SURFACE
WILL BE LIMITED...STILL THINK THERE IS A DECENT SHOT OF SOUTHERLY
35-40 KT GUSTS. SUCH GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY EVENING OUT OF THE SW.

GALE WARNINGS HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR. SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2 FT IS
LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240602
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
102 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET SPECIFIC OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1255 AM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS E PA AND NJ WILL BE MOVING INTO CT
AND W MA BY 08Z THEN REACHING E MA 10-12Z. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS FOR ONSET OF RAIN...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK. AREAS OF
FOG ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS LOW LEVEL
APPROACHES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
  ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...

1) BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING...BUT THE WEATHER WILL
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
INDUCE A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEEP
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 3 AND 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING SHOULD
YIELD A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. THUNDER INDICES ARE MARGINAL
BUT ENOUGH FORCING COULD GENERATE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. FORTUNATELY THE SYSTEM
IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO EXPECT THE STEADY/HEAVY RAIN TO BE OVER
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
0.50 TO 1 INCHES IN MOST LOCALES...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GENERATE ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...OTHER THAN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING WHICH WILL UNFORTUNATELY COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY
AM RUSH HOUR.

2) STRONG WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE INVERSION...ITS ALWAYS TRICKY TO SEE
HOW MUCH WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE GROUND. LOW
LEVEL JET AT 850 MB IS AROUND 80 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. TAKING HALF OF THAT OFTEN CAN
GET YOU IN THE BALL PARK OF WHAT WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THEREFORE...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. IF WE CAN GET A FINE LINE GOING...CONFIDENCE WOULD INCREASE
MORE IN BEING ABLE TO BRING THE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND.
NONETHELESS...STILL THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH THE ADVISORY.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE WILL HAVE LIFTED TO OUR NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE STEADY AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
HAVE COME TO AN END. WE WILL STILL HAVE A LOT OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT/MOISTURE AROUND FOR A FEW PASSING SHOWERS SO MAINTAINED SOME
POPS. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +10 TO +12C. DESPITE A
LOT OF CLOUDS...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE
WELL INTO THE 60S. NOT SURE IF WE WILL SEE MUCH SUN GIVEN SO MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT IF WE END UP WITH MORE THAN EXPECTED SOME
LOCATIONS COULD REACH OR EXCEED 70. REGARDLESS...WILL ACTUALLY
FEEL A BIT MUGGY FOR LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH DEWPOINTS
CLOSE TO 60! ALSO...THERE IS A LOT OF WIND JUST OFF THE DECK INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP EVEN
IN THE INTERIOR...DEPENDING ON IF WE CAN MUSTER ANY PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE.

THIS COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR SW TO NE
08-12Z AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
RAIN WILL BE EXITING 14-16Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. S WIND GUSTS TO
35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS
12-16Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KEPT CIGS ABOVE IFR WITH
GUSTY S WINDS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT
CONCERN IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ AND WEAKER E/SE FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

DEEPENING LOW LIFTING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL INDUCE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT MONDAY MORNING. WHILE POTENTIAL MIXING TO THE SURFACE
WILL BE LIMITED...STILL THINK THERE IS A DECENT SHOT OF SOUTHERLY
35-40 KT GUSTS. SUCH GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY EVENING OUT OF THE SW.

GALE WARNINGS HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR. SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2 FT IS
LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KALY 240531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...MAJOR OVERHAUL OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
REGARDS TO TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN AND WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF PCPN BY A COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM 4 AM THROUGH
NOON TODAY. 0-30 MB AGL WINDS SHOW GUSTS OVER 40 KTS ACRS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND NOON TIME.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO SLACKEN. A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING N/NE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND THE TN VALLEY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG LLJ WILL FOCUS THE
RAINFALL /50-70 KTS AT H850/. THE LLJ WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS
PWAT AIR A FEW STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
QUICKLY FROM THE S/SE. SOME GUSTS IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH THE STABLE
LAYER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BECOME
MODERATE TO HVY INTENSITY AT TIMES OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
BTWN 09Z- 12Z. THE RAINFALL IS STARTING TO BREAK OUT OVER PA AND
MD THIS HOUR.

LOWS SO FAR ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE M30S TO L50S. THIS IS
DUE TO THE DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /FOR EXAMPLE KPSF
AT 36F/. THE S/SE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE M30S TO M40S...AND THEN STEADY OR RISING IN THE
RAINFALL.

TOMORROW...
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 240531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...MAJOR OVERHAUL OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
REGARDS TO TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN AND WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF PCPN BY A COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM 4 AM THROUGH
NOON TODAY. 0-30 MB AGL WINDS SHOW GUSTS OVER 40 KTS ACRS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND NOON TIME.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO SLACKEN. A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING N/NE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND THE TN VALLEY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG LLJ WILL FOCUS THE
RAINFALL /50-70 KTS AT H850/. THE LLJ WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS
PWAT AIR A FEW STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
QUICKLY FROM THE S/SE. SOME GUSTS IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH THE STABLE
LAYER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BECOME
MODERATE TO HVY INTENSITY AT TIMES OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
BTWN 09Z- 12Z. THE RAINFALL IS STARTING TO BREAK OUT OVER PA AND
MD THIS HOUR.

LOWS SO FAR ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE M30S TO L50S. THIS IS
DUE TO THE DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /FOR EXAMPLE KPSF
AT 36F/. THE S/SE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE M30S TO M40S...AND THEN STEADY OR RISING IN THE
RAINFALL.

TOMORROW...
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 240236
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 936 PM EST...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS EVENING WITH H500
HEIGHTS OVERLAYED DEPICTS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE TN VALLEY.
A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING N/NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE
TN VALLEY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT. WE CONTINUED THE TREND TO TWEAK THE POPS BACK SLIGHTLY
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. EXPECTING THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG LLJ WILL
FOCUS THE RAINFALL /50-70 KTS AT H850/. THE LLJ WILL ADVECT IN
ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR A FEW STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE QUICKLY FROM THE S/SE. SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN GREENS TOWARDS 12Z. FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...THE WINDS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PENETRATING THE STABLE
LAYER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RAIN COULD BECOME MODERATE TO HVY
INTENSITY AT TIMES OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY BTWN 09Z-12Z. THE
RAINFALL IS STARTING TO BREAK OUT OVER PA AND MD THIS HOUR.

LOWS SO FAR ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE M30S TO L50S. THIS IS
DUE TO THE DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /FOR EXAMPLE KPSF
AT 36F/. THE S/SE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE M30S TO M40S...AND THEN STEADY OR RISING IN THE
RAINFALL.

TOMORROW...
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
FOCUS PERIODS OF RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR
LEVELS AT KPOU/KALB/KPSF/KGFL BTWN 06Z-09Z. THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING UNTIL 17Z/MON.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR TO VFR LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
40-50 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUST AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 240001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 623 PM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TWEAK THE POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
FOCUS PERIODS OF RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR
LEVELS AT KPOU/KALB/KPSF/KGFL BTWN 06Z-09Z. THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING UNTIL 17Z/MON.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR TO VFR LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
40-50 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUST AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 240001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 623 PM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TWEAK THE POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
FOCUS PERIODS OF RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR
LEVELS AT KPOU/KALB/KPSF/KGFL BTWN 06Z-09Z. THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING UNTIL 17Z/MON.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR TO VFR LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
40-50 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUST AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 240001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 623 PM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TWEAK THE POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
FOCUS PERIODS OF RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR
LEVELS AT KPOU/KALB/KPSF/KGFL BTWN 06Z-09Z. THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING UNTIL 17Z/MON.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR TO VFR LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
40-50 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUST AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 240001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 623 PM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TWEAK THE POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
FOCUS PERIODS OF RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR
LEVELS AT KPOU/KALB/KPSF/KGFL BTWN 06Z-09Z. THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING UNTIL 17Z/MON.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR TO VFR LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
40-50 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUST AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KBOX 232358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
658 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET SPECIFIC OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
  ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...

1) BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING...BUT THE WEATHER WILL
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
INDUCE A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEEP
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 3 AND 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING SHOULD
YIELD A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. THUNDER INDICES ARE MARGINAL
BUT ENOUGH FORCING COULD GENERATE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. FORTUNATELY THE SYSTEM
IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO EXPECT THE STEADY/HEAVY RAIN TO BE OVER
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
0.50 TO 1 INCHES IN MOST LOCALES...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GENERATE ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...OTHER THAN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING WHICH WILL UNFORTUNATELY COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY
AM RUSH HOUR.

2) STRONG WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE INVERSION...ITS ALWAYS TRICKY TO SEE
HOW MUCH WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE GROUND. LOW
LEVEL JET AT 850 MB IS AROUND 80 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. TAKING HALF OF THAT OFTEN CAN
GET YOU IN THE BALL PARK OF WHAT WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THEREFORE...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. IF WE CAN GET A FINE LINE GOING...CONFIDENCE WOULD INCREASE
MORE IN BEING ABLE TO BRING THE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND.
NONETHELESS...STILL THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH THE ADVISORY.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE WILL HAVE LIFTED TO OUR NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE STEADY AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
HAVE COME TO AN END. WE WILL STILL HAVE A LOT OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT/MOISTURE AROUND FOR A FEW PASSING SHOWERS SO MAINTAINED SOME
POPS. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +10 TO +12C. DESPITE A
LOT OF CLOUDS...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE
WELL INTO THE 60S. NOT SURE IF WE WILL SEE MUCH SUN GIVEN SO MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT IF WE END UP WITH MORE THAN EXPECTED SOME
LOCATIONS COULD REACH OR EXCEED 70. REGARDLESS...WILL ACTUALLY
FEEL A BIT MUGGY FOR LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH DEWPOINTS
CLOSE TO 60! ALSO...THERE IS A LOT OF WIND JUST OFF THE DECK INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP EVEN
IN THE INTERIOR...DEPENDING ON IF WE CAN MUSTER ANY PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY NIGHT...

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE.

THIS COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SW TO NE 6-12Z WITH RAIN
AND A LOW RISK OF TSRA LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MIX OF
MVFR-IFR...IFR-LIFR WITH +RA / TSRA. S-WINDS 35-40 KTS WITH LLWS
2 KFT OUT OF THE S AROUND 45 KTS.

RAIN PUSHES E AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH S-WINDS AROUND 35 KTS. SPOT SHOWERS AND THE THREAT OF LLWS
OUT OF THE SW LINGERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR OVER N/W TERMINALS OF S NEW
ENGLAND. BLUSTERLY SW-WINDS CONTINUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. POTENTIAL WIGGLE IN TIMING
SPECIFICS. WILL KEEP IFR OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH EXPECT GUSTY
S-WINDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN
WITH WEAK E-FLOW WINDS WITH MODERATE RAIN. POTENTIAL WIGGLE IN
TIMING SPECIFICS. WITH ANY +RA ANTICIPATE IFR IMPACTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

DEEPENING LOW LIFTING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL INDUCE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT MONDAY MORNING. WHILE POTENTIAL MIXING TO THE SURFACE
WILL BE LIMITED...STILL THINK THERE IS A DECENT SHOT OF SOUTHERLY
35-40 KT GUSTS. SUCH GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY EVENING OUT OF THE SW.

GALE WARNINGS HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR. SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2 FT IS
LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 232358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
658 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET SPECIFIC OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
  ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...

1) BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING...BUT THE WEATHER WILL
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
INDUCE A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEEP
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 3 AND 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING SHOULD
YIELD A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. THUNDER INDICES ARE MARGINAL
BUT ENOUGH FORCING COULD GENERATE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. FORTUNATELY THE SYSTEM
IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO EXPECT THE STEADY/HEAVY RAIN TO BE OVER
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
0.50 TO 1 INCHES IN MOST LOCALES...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GENERATE ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...OTHER THAN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING WHICH WILL UNFORTUNATELY COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY
AM RUSH HOUR.

2) STRONG WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE INVERSION...ITS ALWAYS TRICKY TO SEE
HOW MUCH WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE GROUND. LOW
LEVEL JET AT 850 MB IS AROUND 80 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. TAKING HALF OF THAT OFTEN CAN
GET YOU IN THE BALL PARK OF WHAT WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THEREFORE...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. IF WE CAN GET A FINE LINE GOING...CONFIDENCE WOULD INCREASE
MORE IN BEING ABLE TO BRING THE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND.
NONETHELESS...STILL THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH THE ADVISORY.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE WILL HAVE LIFTED TO OUR NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE STEADY AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
HAVE COME TO AN END. WE WILL STILL HAVE A LOT OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT/MOISTURE AROUND FOR A FEW PASSING SHOWERS SO MAINTAINED SOME
POPS. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +10 TO +12C. DESPITE A
LOT OF CLOUDS...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE
WELL INTO THE 60S. NOT SURE IF WE WILL SEE MUCH SUN GIVEN SO MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT IF WE END UP WITH MORE THAN EXPECTED SOME
LOCATIONS COULD REACH OR EXCEED 70. REGARDLESS...WILL ACTUALLY
FEEL A BIT MUGGY FOR LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH DEWPOINTS
CLOSE TO 60! ALSO...THERE IS A LOT OF WIND JUST OFF THE DECK INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP EVEN
IN THE INTERIOR...DEPENDING ON IF WE CAN MUSTER ANY PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY NIGHT...

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE.

THIS COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS! MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SW TO NE 6-12Z WITH RAIN
AND A LOW RISK OF TSRA LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MIX OF
MVFR-IFR...IFR-LIFR WITH +RA / TSRA. S-WINDS 35-40 KTS WITH LLWS
2 KFT OUT OF THE S AROUND 45 KTS.

RAIN PUSHES E AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH S-WINDS AROUND 35 KTS. SPOT SHOWERS AND THE THREAT OF LLWS
OUT OF THE SW LINGERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR OVER N/W TERMINALS OF S NEW
ENGLAND. BLUSTERLY SW-WINDS CONTINUE.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. POTENTIAL WIGGLE IN TIMING
SPECIFICS. WILL KEEP IFR OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH EXPECT GUSTY
S-WINDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN
WITH WEAK E-FLOW WINDS WITH MODERATE RAIN. POTENTIAL WIGGLE IN
TIMING SPECIFICS. WITH ANY +RA ANTICIPATE IFR IMPACTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

DEEPENING LOW LIFTING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL INDUCE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT MONDAY MORNING. WHILE POTENTIAL MIXING TO THE SURFACE
WILL BE LIMITED...STILL THINK THERE IS A DECENT SHOT OF SOUTHERLY
35-40 KT GUSTS. SUCH GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY EVENING OUT OF THE SW.

GALE WARNINGS HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR. SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2 FT IS
LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KALY 232323
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
623 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 623 PM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TWEAK THE POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 232323
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
623 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 623 PM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TWEAK THE POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KBOX 232117
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
417 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW-WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET SPECIFIC OUTCOMES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN MONDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
  ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND***

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...

1) BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING...BUT THE WEATHER WILL
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z
MONDAY.  LOW PRESSURE WORKING UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL INDUCE
A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET.  THIS WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AS PWATS CLIMB TO BETWEEN 3 AND 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL.  THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING SHOULD YIELD A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN.  THUNDER INDICES ARE MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH FORCING COULD GENERATE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  FORTUNATELY THE SYSTEM
IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO EXPECT THE STEADY/HEAVY RAIN TO BE OVER
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
0.50 TO 1 INCHES IN MOST LOCALES...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GENERATE ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.  SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...OTHER THAN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING WHICH WILL UNFORTUNATELY COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY AM
RUSH HOUR.

2) STRONG WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY MORNING.  GIVEN THE INVERSION...ITS ALWAYS TRICKY TO SEE HOW
MUCH WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE GROUND.  LOW LEVEL JET
AT 850 MB IS AROUND 80 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.  TAKING HALF OF THAT OFTEN CAN GET YOU IN THE
BALL PARK OF WHAT WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.  THIS WOULD
RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES. THEREFORE...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN RHODE
ISLAND AND FAR SOUTHEAST MA MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.  IF
WE CAN GET A FINE LINE GOING...CONFIDENCE WOULD INCREASE MORE IN
BEING ABLE TO BRING THE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND.
NONETHELESS...STILL THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH THE ADVISORY.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT/MOISTURE WILL HAVE LIFTED TO OUR NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...THE STEADY AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
HAVE COME TO AN END.  WE WILL STILL HAVE A LOT OF LOW LEVEL
LIFT/MOISTURE AROUND FOR A FEW PASSING SHOWERS SO MAINTAINED SOME
POPS.  OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF +10 TO +12C.  DESPITE A LOT
OF CLOUDS...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE WELL
INTO THE 60S.  NOT SURE IF WE WILL SEE MUCH SUN GIVEN SO MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT IF WE END UP WITH MORE THAN EXPECTED SOME
LOCATIONS COULD REACH OR EXCEED 70.  REGARDLESS...WILL ACTUALLY FEEL
A BIT MUGGY FOR LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH DEWPOINTS CLOSE TO
60!  ALSO...THERE IS A LOT OF WIND JUST OFF THE DECK INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  WE COULD SEE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP EVEN IN THE
INTERIOR...DEPENDING ON IF WE CAN MUSTER ANY PEEKS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY NIGHT...

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE.

THIS COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS!  MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY
- STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TRAVEL IMPACTS
- TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. IN AGREEMENT
WITH WPC: CONTINUED SPREAD OF GUIDANCE UPSTREAM RESULTING IN THE
POOR RESOLVING OF DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS. INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS /
ENSEMBLES STILL UNDECIDED ON THE RELATIVE TRACK / STRENGTH OF DOWN-
STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS
ACROSS THE REGION OF WHICH WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL
ABOUT 2-3 DAYS PRIOR.

NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE TO WEIGH PREFERENCE UPON THE W-ENVELOPE OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE THE 23.6Z / 23.12Z GFS AND THE 23.12Z EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE NE-TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. AGREE WITH WPC
NOTING THERE HAS BEEN A WIDE SPREAD OF EC DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ON
THE W-HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE UKMET...WHILE THE CANADIAN
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT.

EXPECT A MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE STRENGTH AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. ASIDE...EXPECTING SOME SORT OF RAIN AND / OR SNOW BAND
SOMEWHERE ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL PREFERENCE OF
RAIN OVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND SNOWS FOR THE INTERIOR.

THE ONLY CERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM OF
WHICH IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM CONCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BENEATH THE DRY-SLOT REARWARD
OF THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN CANADA. AM
EXPECTING BLUSTERY SW-FLOW WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE S-COAST.
WINDS RELAXING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE FOR
A GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP. BUT ANTICIPATING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE S INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE PACIFIC-IMPULSES MAINTAIN AN OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH INTO THE GULF. UNDERGOING A NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS THE E-CONUS
INITIATES AND INTENSIFIES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE N-GULF NE
OVER THE W-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET BY
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING SIGNIFIES A
PROGRESSIVE-FLOW PATTERN /+NAO/ RESULTING IN THE ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-
LOW PATTERN ABOVE H7 /LESS EMPHASIS OF A CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM
CONVEYER BELT/...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR REARWARD ACROSS
C-CANADA /+AO/ RESULTING IN THERMAL PROFILES AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK OVER S NEW ENGLAND.

TOWARDS EVENING...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND MODEST
W-COMPONENT OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW...AND DRIER AIR N/W INITIALLY...AM
EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SETUP.

OVERNIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN AND
LACK OF A CLOSED LOW ABOVE H7...MUCH OF THE EMPHASIS IS WITH THE
ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB. NEVERTHELESS A FRONT-END THUMP IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE ASCENT / FORCING PER FRONTOGENESIS NW OF
H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK TROWALING TOWARD
THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT
THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A SW-NE BAND SIGNATURE
ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IS
THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE DEPTH / STRENGTH OF THE STORM.

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
JUST BELOW FREEZING UP TO H7 PER THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS NOTED
EARLIER...THEN WOULD EXPECT INTERIOR SNOWS /WITH A NEAR 1:10 RATIO/
AND COASTAL RAINS. KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF THE
H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C. THE DIVIDING
LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
DOES WEIGH SOME INDICATION PER PROBABILITIES OF > 2 INCHES OF SNOW.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. 23.12Z EC / UKMET CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
WARMER-END OF SOLUTIONS. IF THE 23.12Z GFS / GEFS AND 23.15Z SREF
ARE CORRECT WITH THE TRACK OF THE H85 / SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD /CANADIAN THE FAR E SOLUTION/ THEN
WOULD EXPECT A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR N/W OF THE I-95/495
CORRIDOR...KEEPING IN MIND THERE IS LIKELY WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN /
SNOW BAND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE OUT ANY SNOW-
FALL GRAPHICS WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CERTAINTY
AS TO SNOW-OUTCOMES.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TONED DOWN ON THE WIND PROBABILITIES. BUT WITH THE
AFOREMENTION MODEL PREFERENCE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE NE-FLOW OVER
E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH
AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN.

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY. ALL SORTS OF DEPENDENCIES AND INTANGIBLES. ITS A HARD
KNOCK LIFE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

410 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST
THIS EVENING.  CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z AS RAIN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW END MVFR TO TIMES OF IFR
CONDITIONS.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  GIVEN A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...FEEL THAT MVFR TO EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MON AFTERNOON.

AS FOR WINDS...A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  FURTHER
INLAND...STILL MAY SEE 30 KNOT GUSTS BUT LLWS AT 1500 FEET WILL BE A
CONCERN.

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PROBABLY IMPROVE TO VFR AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.  LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED. POSSIBLE THREATS OF A PLOWABLE SNOW
OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG NE WINDS OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...MAYBE EVEN +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR ANTICIPATED. STORM
IMPACTS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE
STORM AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

LATER-THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

IMPROVING VFR. BUT MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MORPHOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR THE EVENING ACROSS MOST WATERS.  HOWEVER...STRONG LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL INDUCE A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET BETWEEN 75 AND 85 KNOTS AT 850 MB BY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE...BUT STILL THINK THERE IS
A DECENT SHOT OF SOUTHERLY 35 TO 40 KNOT GUSTS DEVELOPING MONDAY
MORNING.  IN FACT...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW FOR GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING.  GALE WARNINGS HOISTED FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON
HARBOR. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ANTICIPATED PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S
OF NANTUCKET. POSSIBLE THREATS OF STRONG NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE
COD / ISLANDS...INCLUDING ALL ADJACENT AND OUTER WATERS. HEAVY RAIN
LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STORM IMPACTS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT OF THE STORM AROUND
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...CONCLUDING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2 FT IS
LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ020>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KALY 232051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 232051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 232051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 232051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 232025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 232025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 232007
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 232007
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
307 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 231829
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO 100
MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO
FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR
HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND A GOOD BIT OF
THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...SO THE TREND IS BCMG
CLEARER. HAVE YET TO SEE GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE MAY ADD SOME
FURTHER CLARITY...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED AFTN...CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE S & E DURING THE EVNG. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL
TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT...AND WILL
USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR
CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE OVER TO RN FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 231829
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO 100
MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO
FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR
HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND A GOOD BIT OF
THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...SO THE TREND IS BCMG
CLEARER. HAVE YET TO SEE GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE MAY ADD SOME
FURTHER CLARITY...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED AFTN...CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE S & E DURING THE EVNG. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL
TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT...AND WILL
USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR
CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE OVER TO RN FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBOX 231808
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
208 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

BEAUTIFUL DAY IN PROGRESS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT WELL UP INTO THE 50S...TO AROUND
60 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  GUIDANCE UNDERDONE ON TEMPS WHICH
MAKES SENSE SINCE 850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND +5C WITH AT LEAST SOME
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST
THIS EVENING.  CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z AS RAIN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW END MVFR TO TIMES OF
IFR CONDITIONS.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  GIVEN A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...FEEL THAT MVFR TO EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MON AFTERNOON.

AS FOR WINDS...A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  FURTHER
INLAND...STILL MAY SEE 30 KNOT GUSTS BUT LLWS AT 1500 FEET WILL BE A
CONCERN.

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PROBABLY IMPROVE TO VFR AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.  LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK MONDAY

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231808
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
208 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

BEAUTIFUL DAY IN PROGRESS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT WELL UP INTO THE 50S...TO AROUND
60 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  GUIDANCE UNDERDONE ON TEMPS WHICH
MAKES SENSE SINCE 850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND +5C WITH AT LEAST SOME
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST
THIS EVENING.  CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z AS RAIN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW END MVFR TO TIMES OF
IFR CONDITIONS.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...WITH EVEN A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  GIVEN A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...FEEL THAT MVFR TO EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MON AFTERNOON.

AS FOR WINDS...A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  FURTHER
INLAND...STILL MAY SEE 30 KNOT GUSTS BUT LLWS AT 1500 FEET WILL BE A
CONCERN.

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PROBABLY IMPROVE TO VFR AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  MODERATE
CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.  LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK MONDAY

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC



000
FXUS61 KALY 231808
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL





000
FXUS61 KALY 231808
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 231731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 231727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1227 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1227 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIRMASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE 00UTC ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE
CONVECTION IN GULF OF MEX...AND BRING STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED
AFTN...TO 100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THIS TRACK BRINGS MORE SIG
PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB.
ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN...AND
A GOOD BIT OF THIS PCPN COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THIS SCENARIO

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND THE
OTHER NOTHING. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED WITH THIS
RUN...AND REMAINS ABOUT WHAT IT WAS ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

HAVE YET TO SEE THE NEW 12UTC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AND THESE
MAY ADD SOME CLARITY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW W/HI CHC POPS TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING WED
AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAIR S BY EVNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM
EXCEPT FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KBOX 231529
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

THE LAST OF THE LIGHT SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WERE EXITING THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  OTHERWISE...TEMPORARY MID LEVEL
RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MILD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
+5C...FEEL GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS ARE A BIT TOO COOL.  HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.  WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...SO IT WILL FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RECENT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

15Z UPDATE...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DESPITE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 30 KT COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT VALLEY
SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231529
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

THE LAST OF THE LIGHT SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WERE EXITING THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  OTHERWISE...TEMPORARY MID LEVEL
RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MILD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
+5C...FEEL GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS ARE A BIT TOO COOL.  HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.  WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...SO IT WILL FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RECENT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

15Z UPDATE...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DESPITE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 30 KT COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT VALLEY
SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 231502
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

THE LAST OF THE LIGHT SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WERE EXITING THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  OTHERWISE...TEMPORARY MID LEVEL
RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MILD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
+5C...FEEL GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS ARE A BIT TOO COOL.  HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
MIDDLE 50S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.  NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW SPOTS REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S.  WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
MPH...SO IT WILL FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RECENT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

15Z UPDATE...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DESPITE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 30 KT COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT VALLEY
SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231502
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

THE LAST OF THE LIGHT SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WERE EXITING THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  OTHERWISE...TEMPORARY MID LEVEL
RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MILD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
+5C...FEEL GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS ARE A BIT TOO COOL.  HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
MIDDLE 50S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.  NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW SPOTS REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S.  WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
MPH...SO IT WILL FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RECENT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

15Z UPDATE...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR DESPITE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 30 KT COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT VALLEY
SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC



000
FXUS61 KALY 231434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY
AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY
AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY
AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231434
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
934 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY
AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 934 AM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION...ALL RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT SKIES HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBOX 231200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
LAST FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST LLJ AND WARM FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH AND DISSIPATING THIS HOUR ACROSS
CT/RI/SE MA. THESE SHOULD COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK...INCLUDING TEMPS/DWPTS.

SCT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S SO PTYPE IS RAIN...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN W
MA REPORTING 32-33 DEGREES PER MESONET SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY BERKSHIRES. PRECIP
WILL END BY DAYBREAK. FURTHER SOUTH...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS
LOW LEVELS ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER.

FOR TODAY...WEAK SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH MID
LEVEL DRYING FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A MILD AFTERNOON. 2M TEMPS SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. 925 MB
TEMPS 8-10C SO THERE IS A CHANCE TEMPS COULD BE EVEN MILDER IF
THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS W AND CENTRAL MA WITH ISOLD
-FZRA IN THE BERKSHIRES. SW GUSTS TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
CT VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS SOUTH AND 2K WINDS WEST AROUND 40 KT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 30 KT COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT VALLEY
SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS MAINLY N OF TERMINAL.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
LAST FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST LLJ AND WARM FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH AND DISSIPATING THIS HOUR ACROSS
CT/RI/SE MA. THESE SHOULD COME TO AN END IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK...INCLUDING TEMPS/DWPTS.

SCT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S SO PTYPE IS RAIN...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN W
MA REPORTING 32-33 DEGREES PER MESONET SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY BERKSHIRES. PRECIP
WILL END BY DAYBREAK. FURTHER SOUTH...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS
LOW LEVELS ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER.

FOR TODAY...WEAK SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH MID
LEVEL DRYING FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A MILD AFTERNOON. 2M TEMPS SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. 925 MB
TEMPS 8-10C SO THERE IS A CHANCE TEMPS COULD BE EVEN MILDER IF
THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS W AND CENTRAL MA WITH ISOLD
-FZRA IN THE BERKSHIRES. SW GUSTS TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
CT VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS SOUTH AND 2K WINDS WEST AROUND 40 KT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 30 KT COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT VALLEY
SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS MAINLY N OF TERMINAL.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KALY 231120
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...ENDING THE RAIN...AND ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE FROM W TO E...WITH MAINLY JUST ISOLATED/SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT BEST. THIS DECREASING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 2 HOURS. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG COULD FORM IN SOME AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY...IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER S AND E...WE EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
LEAST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231103
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...ENDING THE RAIN...AND ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST...RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE
LAST AREA OF SHOWERS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TUG HILL
REGION...AND MOVING EAST VERY RAPIDLY. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS TO TAPER OFF FROM W TO E BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BEFORE ENDING.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END...WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER S AND E...WE
EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 231103
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...ENDING THE RAIN...AND ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST...RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE
LAST AREA OF SHOWERS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TUG HILL
REGION...AND MOVING EAST VERY RAPIDLY. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS TO TAPER OFF FROM W TO E BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BEFORE ENDING.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END...WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER S AND E...WE
EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AS AN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TODAY THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KBOX 230925
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S SO PTYPE IS RAIN...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN W
MA REPORTING 32-33 DEGREES PER MESONET SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY BERKSHIRES. PRECIP
WILL END BY DAYBREAK. FURTHER SOUTH...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS
LOW LEVELS ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER.

FOR TODAY...WEAK SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH MID
LEVEL DRYING FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A MILD AFTERNOON. 2M TEMPS SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. 925 MB
TEMPS 8-10C SO THERE IS A CHANCE TEMPS COULD BE EVEN MILDER IF
THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS W AND CENTRAL MA WITH ISOLD
-FZRA IN THE BERKSHIRES. SW GUSTS TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
CT VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS SOUTH AND 2K WINDS WEST AROUND 40 KT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 30 KT COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT VALLEY
SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS MAINLY N OF TERMINAL.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230925
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S SO PTYPE IS RAIN...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN W
MA REPORTING 32-33 DEGREES PER MESONET SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY BERKSHIRES. PRECIP
WILL END BY DAYBREAK. FURTHER SOUTH...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS
LOW LEVELS ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER.

FOR TODAY...WEAK SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH MID
LEVEL DRYING FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A MILD AFTERNOON. 2M TEMPS SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. 925 MB
TEMPS 8-10C SO THERE IS A CHANCE TEMPS COULD BE EVEN MILDER IF
THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS W AND CENTRAL MA WITH ISOLD
-FZRA IN THE BERKSHIRES. SW GUSTS TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
CT VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS SOUTH AND 2K WINDS WEST AROUND 40 KT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 30 KT COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT VALLEY
SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS MAINLY N OF TERMINAL.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230925
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S SO PTYPE IS RAIN...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN W
MA REPORTING 32-33 DEGREES PER MESONET SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY BERKSHIRES. PRECIP
WILL END BY DAYBREAK. FURTHER SOUTH...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS
LOW LEVELS ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER.

FOR TODAY...WEAK SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH MID
LEVEL DRYING FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A MILD AFTERNOON. 2M TEMPS SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. 925 MB
TEMPS 8-10C SO THERE IS A CHANCE TEMPS COULD BE EVEN MILDER IF
THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS W AND CENTRAL MA WITH ISOLD
-FZRA IN THE BERKSHIRES. SW GUSTS TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
CT VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS SOUTH AND 2K WINDS WEST AROUND 40 KT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 30 KT COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT VALLEY
SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS MAINLY N OF TERMINAL.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230925
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS BUT DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S SO PTYPE IS RAIN...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS IN W
MA REPORTING 32-33 DEGREES PER MESONET SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY BERKSHIRES. PRECIP
WILL END BY DAYBREAK. FURTHER SOUTH...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS
LOW LEVELS ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER.

FOR TODAY...WEAK SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH MID
LEVEL DRYING FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A MILD AFTERNOON. 2M TEMPS SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. 925 MB
TEMPS 8-10C SO THERE IS A CHANCE TEMPS COULD BE EVEN MILDER IF
THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE S. GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. GEFS
SHOWING PWAT ANOMALY INCREASING TO +3SD AND LOW LEVEL JET REACHES
+4SD IN SNE AROUND 12Z MON SO THIS IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN THREAT IS TYPICAL
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING BUT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
MON MORNING AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH THE LOW LEVEL
NEARING 75 KT AT 925 MB WHILE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 65-70 KT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING
DOWN THESE WINDS TO THE SFC IS NOT LIKELY AS INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THERE IS NOT A COLD FRONT WHICH TYPICALLY PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR THESE FINE LINES. TAKING ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE JET
SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK AT 40-45 MPH WHICH IS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BEST CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...EARLIER IN WESTERN
NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 60 WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO 30-35 MPH IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. 925 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD NEAR +15C WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING. IF WE CAN GET ANY SUN...70+ WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MILD BUT WINDY ON TUESDAY
* COASTAL STORM WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE WED-THU WITH UNCERTAINTY
* COLDER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
23.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM PERIOD...INCLUDING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF BY MID- LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
THE PRIMARY MODEL ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENTS ARE STILL REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED-THU. THIS DISAGREEMENT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL WRAPPED IN THE NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LOW...AND MAY NOT BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR ANOTHER
24+ HOURS. AGREE WITH WPC...THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE LOW PASSES
IN REGARD TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WITH THE GFS LEANING ABOUT
50-100 NM E AND THE ECMWF CLOSER TO BUT W OF IT. ECENS MEAN SEEMS
TO SPLIT THIS DIFFERENCE WELL...AND GIVEN WPC/S PREFERENCE FOR IT
AS WELL...WILL LEAN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS UPDATE CLOSER TO
IT/S THINKING...ALTHOUGH ESSENTIALLY THIS IS CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND IN SPITE OF THE FACT THE ECMWF IS WELL W OF THE BENCHMARK.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM ITSELF...HOW EFFICIENTLY IT
IS ABLE TO DRAW IN THE COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE W
REMAINS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT A TREND TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY.

DETAILS...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...
MAINLY DRY FORECAST HERE ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT AS UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAKENING COLD FRONT. COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W AND SO
IN SPITE OF COLD ADVECTION W-FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED INTO THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY HERE FOR
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT
PLAY. IN ANY CASE...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SE MA
COASTLINE...MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT...DIPPING BELOW 1000MB. THE EXACT TRACK IS THE MAIN QUESTION
AND AS SUCH...WHAT THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MOST LIKELY TO LOOK
LIKE. AT THIS TIME...0C H92 LINE VARIES BETWEEN JUST W OF THE BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR TO OFFSHORE...SO EXACTLY WHERE ANY RAIN/SNOW LINE
DEVELOPS REMAIN IN FLUX. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AS POINTED OUT BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WETBULB/DYNAMIC COOLING ARE LIKELY TO LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THE STRAIGHT 2M MODEL TEMPS WOULD
INDICATE...SO EVEN WITH THE FURTHER E TRACK...SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
HOW MUCH IS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN TO CALL GIVEN NOT JUST THE THERMAL
PROFILE ISSUES... THERE IS A BANDING SIGNAL AND TROWAL SIGNATURE
TOWARD THE NE QUADRANT. WHICH COULD PROVIDE DYNAMIC COOLING.

WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS THAT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A COASTAL
STORM...WITH WINTERY PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN PLOWABLE SNOW
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK FOR THE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING TIMEFRAME.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION. BUT PRECIP IS LIKELY TO
LEAN E GIVEN SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE RAIN SIDE AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER.  COULD ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT
GRADIENT BETWEEN WRN MA/CT/NH AND EARN MA/RI IN SNOW/RAINFALL.
ALSO...AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...COASTAL FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE RAPID MOVEMENT /LACK OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING/ AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THEY WILL BEGIN DURING A VERY BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
ON WED.

FRI...
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRES...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER BUT COLDER WEATHER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...
AS CORE OF COLD AIR TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OVER...EXPECT TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES/CLIPPER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS W AND CENTRAL MA WITH ISOLD
-FZRA IN THE BERKSHIRES. SW GUSTS TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
CT VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS SOUTH AND 2K WINDS WEST AROUND 40 KT.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 30 KT COASTAL PLAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT VALLEY
SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS MAINLY N OF TERMINAL.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. BUT A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY MAY YIELD MVFR
CONDITIONS.  W-SW WIND GUSTS ABOUT 20-25 KT AT TIMES EACH DAY.

WED INTO THU...LOW CONFIDENCE.  A COASTAL LOW PRES WILL MOVE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN JUST ONSHORE OF SE MA OR OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW/RAIN
POTENTIAL...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EACH WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW. NE WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 25+ OR MORE EITHER DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SW GUSTS 25-30 KT SE WATERS EARLY...OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE WATERS WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT GUSTS AND PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING
DOWN. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE JET...GALE FORCE GUSTS TO
35-40 KT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MAINLY SW-W AND GUSTS 25-30 KT
INTO EARLY TUE.  SEAS ALSO AROUND 8-10 FT.  BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP
OFF LATE TUE TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON TUE.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE. A COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
NEAR 40N/70W...THIS WILL YIELD BUILDING SWELL AND WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE LATE WED TO WNW BY LATE THU.  DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE
STORM COMES...HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  GALES ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  VISIBILITIES
DROP IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE MON MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1-2
FT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHICH MAY BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD. THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE
TO SOUTHERLY FETCH. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC




000
FXUS61 KALY 230916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...ENDING THE RAIN...AND ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST...RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE
LAST AREA OF SHOWERS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TUG HILL
REGION...AND MOVING EAST VERY RAPIDLY. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS TO TAPER OFF FROM W TO E BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BEFORE ENDING.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END...WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER S AND E...WE
EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT
NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF
-RAPL IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME
-RA AROUND AFT 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL TIL ARND 10Z.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 230916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...ENDING THE RAIN...AND ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST...RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE
LAST AREA OF SHOWERS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TUG HILL
REGION...AND MOVING EAST VERY RAPIDLY. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS TO TAPER OFF FROM W TO E BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BEFORE ENDING.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END...WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER S AND E...WE
EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT
NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF
-RAPL IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME
-RA AROUND AFT 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL TIL ARND 10Z.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBOX 230611
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
111 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON TAP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QUIET AND
MILD TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING E INTO W MA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ACROSS E NY. ACTIVITY ASSOCD WITH 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE PLUME. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY IN W
MA ALLOWING GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP
WILL REMAIN ALONG AND N OF THE PIKE WHERE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS IS GREATER. MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DECREASES FURTHER S
FROM THE PIKE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH CT/RI AND
SE MA.

TEMPS IN W MA STILL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S...AND LOWER 40S
CT VALLEY AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INDUCING S FLOW. NOTED A FEW
LOCATIONS IN W MA 32-33 DEGREES PER MESONET SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN...MAINLY BERKSHIRES...BUT THE THREAT IS LOW. GUSTY SW
WINDS TO 30-40 MPH ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
DAYBREAK. TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL DRYING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH MILDER
TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +5C SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
GIVEN MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PRETTY MILD...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THE
NEXT SHIFT NEEDS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES. GUIDANCE
SEEMS A BIT COOL CONSIDERING THOSE FACTORS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN BE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VERY
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE WILL CAUSE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. GEFS IS SHOWING THAT
PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH STRONG FORCING AND HIGH PWATS IN PLACE...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT FORTUNATELY SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
EXPECT MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH
TERRITORY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING...BUT SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.
THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ON MONDAY. WE COULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...BUT INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST ABOVE OUR HEADS. THE ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF WE CAN GENERATE A LITTLE FINE LINE THAT
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL FOR HIGHS GIVEN
850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +10C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCALES APPROACH 70 IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MIX OUT A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD AROUND TUESDAY
- STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

ECHO SIMILAR SENTIMENTS PER WPC: MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE DIFFERENCES
LEND TO LOW CONFIDENCE...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN ENERGY LEND TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WITH UPSTREAM ISSUES IN
HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS OFF THE
E-COAST AND WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE IMPACTS / OUTCOMES UNTIL WE GET
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS OF THE TIMEFRAME.

HAVE ONLY A MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BELOW-AVERAGE
PREDICTABILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STORM ITSELF WILL REMAIN ON
THE W-SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS /AGREED UPON BY WPC/
IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK SO DO NOT PREFER A DRY
OUTCOME.

CONSIDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS
HAVE PREVAILED S OF NOVA SCOTIA. LATELY THE TREND HAS BEEN COLD AIR
SURGING S THROUGH THE C-CONUS TO THE GULF WITH NEW ENGLAND AVERAGING
WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TROUGH. FEEL TREND CONTINUES
WITH THIS FORECAST. LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...BELIEVE
RIDGING OVER THE W-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SYNOPTICS ACROSS
OUR REGION.

SO FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY FORECAST. BLUSTERY W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS / SHORES WITH THE
WARMER OCEAN. OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP
TO H9. GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH... STRONGEST OVER THE SHORES AND
ADJACENT WATERS. WILL REMAIN MILD BENEATH THE SW-FLOW. HIGHS TO NEAR-
60S AS A WARMER AIRMASS LINGERS ALOFT.

NOW AS TO THE STORM...

SYNOPTICALLY...SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES INVOKE / MAINTAIN A H5 OPEN-
WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING S INTO THE GULF. NO UPSTREAM BLOCKING WITH
TELECONNECTIONS OF +AO/+NAO INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES. INTERACTING WITH THE OFFSHORE SW-NE FRONTAL BOUNDARY-
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED RESULTS IN DEEPENING
SFC-H85 LOW PRESSURE UP ALONG THE W-ATLANTIC PASSING WITHIN VICINITY
OF THE 40N / 70W BENCH-MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY UP AGAINST AN
INTERIOR REGION LACKING OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE / ARCTIC AIR.

INITIALLY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROADSCALE
ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF MID- TO LOW-LEVELS DYNAMICALLY
COOLING TOWARDS EVENING SETTING UP THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM. UNDERCUTTING MARGINALLY COLD AIR AIDED BY SURFACE N/NE-FLOW
WITH W/NW AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW OF INTERIOR ORIGIN LOOK TO KEEP THE N/W
INTERIOR AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...MILD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THERMAL FIELDS DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
KEY IS THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF H85 LOW / H925 < -2C. WHILE
LIKELY TO SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR N/W...ANOTHER KEY TO
THE FORECAST TO THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS WETBULBING AT THE
SURFACE.

AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW LOOKS
TO TRACK WITHIN THE VICINITY OF 40N / 70W BENCHMARK. UNCERTAIN AS TO
DEPTH / STRENGTH / EXACT TRACK. EXPECT STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BUT
FEEL BEST MOISTURE WILL BE E OF THE LOW WITHIN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT /WCB/. THOUGH FORCING THROUGH A
MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NW OF THE H85 LOW BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN E/NE WITH
THE LACK OF A STRONG H7 CLOSED LOW AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING
NOR -EPV /CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB LACKING/. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT BUT MARGINAL /AROUND UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S/. NO NEIGHBORING
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. WETBULBING LIKELY CONTINUES. SNOWS N/W OF
THE H85 LOW WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS /
HEADLINES AS MODEL RUNS /WHILE PERSISTENT/ CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH
THE LOW AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. ACTIVITY CONCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY
MORNING REARWARD OF WHICH SOME STRONG SW-FLOW IS POSSIBLE. SEE THE
ADDITIONAL DETAILS BELOW:

SNOWS / HEAVY RAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR FOR
SNOW WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER SE MA...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. NOT EVEN DOES CIPS ANALOGS
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE...AND WITH THE WOBBLING OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRACK / STRENGTH OF THE LOW...IT IS ANYONES
GUESS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WINDS...SOME CONCERN DEPENDING THE DEPTH OF THE LOW. NE-FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BE STRONG...BUT SOME CONCERN AFTER THE LOW PASSES
WITH SW-FLOW IMPACTING THE S-COAST. LIKELY TO BE AN ACCOMPANYING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET. WITH THE 22.12Z GFS...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE A
ROBUST CONFIDENCE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND /MAINLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS/ FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH...POSSIBLY 40 MPH. BEARS
MONITORING.

COASTAL FLOODING...INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NE ALONG E MA INTO
CAPE COD BAY. A BRIEF SURGE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE LOW-CENTER PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THOUGH HIGH TIDES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW /10 FT
FOR BOSTON/. WITH THE SHORT RESIDENCY TIME...AM NOT ANTICIPATING AT
THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL
PREFERENCE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS W AND CENTRAL MA WITH ISOLD
-FZRA IN THE BERKSHIRES. SW GUSTS TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THECT
VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS SOUTH AND 2K WINDS WEST AROUND 40 KT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 20-30 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ENTIRE AREA. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT
VALLEY SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET 50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS MAINLY N OF TERMINAL.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE STRONG WINDS AND THE THREAT OF +RA ALONG THE SHORES
WITH SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECTING A MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS. HEIGHT OF THE STORM
WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG W/SW FLOW CONTINUES EXCEEDING GALE FORCE. BOATS ACROSS THE
S-WATERS REPORTING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KTS AT TIMES. GALE FORCE
WARNINGS CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT OF AVERAGE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...ONLY SMALL-CRAFTS FOR NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR
WHICH SHALL REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS. SEAS BUILDING 6-10
FEET OVER THE S-WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW SCA DURING AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS. LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEPS SEAS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION AND ITS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL HAVE STRONG SCA TO PERHAPS GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH VERY LONG
FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS EXPECTED. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS EXPECTED
INITIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE WATERS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE WATERS. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECTING SEAS TO ENHANCE
AROUND THE STORM CENTER WHICH LOOKS TO PASS IN VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...VISIBILITIES REDUCED WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ233>235-
     237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230611
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
111 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON TAP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QUIET AND
MILD TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING E INTO W MA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ACROSS E NY. ACTIVITY ASSOCD WITH 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE PLUME. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY IN W
MA ALLOWING GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP
WILL REMAIN ALONG AND N OF THE PIKE WHERE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS IS GREATER. MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DECREASES FURTHER S
FROM THE PIKE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH CT/RI AND
SE MA.

TEMPS IN W MA STILL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S...AND LOWER 40S
CT VALLEY AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INDUCING S FLOW. NOTED A FEW
LOCATIONS IN W MA 32-33 DEGREES PER MESONET SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN...MAINLY BERKSHIRES...BUT THE THREAT IS LOW. GUSTY SW
WINDS TO 30-40 MPH ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
DAYBREAK. TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL DRYING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH MILDER
TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +5C SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
GIVEN MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PRETTY MILD...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THE
NEXT SHIFT NEEDS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES. GUIDANCE
SEEMS A BIT COOL CONSIDERING THOSE FACTORS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN BE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VERY
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE WILL CAUSE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. GEFS IS SHOWING THAT
PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH STRONG FORCING AND HIGH PWATS IN PLACE...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT FORTUNATELY SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
EXPECT MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH
TERRITORY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING...BUT SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.
THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ON MONDAY. WE COULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...BUT INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST ABOVE OUR HEADS. THE ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF WE CAN GENERATE A LITTLE FINE LINE THAT
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL FOR HIGHS GIVEN
850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +10C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCALES APPROACH 70 IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MIX OUT A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD AROUND TUESDAY
- STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

ECHO SIMILAR SENTIMENTS PER WPC: MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE DIFFERENCES
LEND TO LOW CONFIDENCE...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN ENERGY LEND TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WITH UPSTREAM ISSUES IN
HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS OFF THE
E-COAST AND WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE IMPACTS / OUTCOMES UNTIL WE GET
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS OF THE TIMEFRAME.

HAVE ONLY A MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BELOW-AVERAGE
PREDICTABILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STORM ITSELF WILL REMAIN ON
THE W-SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS /AGREED UPON BY WPC/
IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK SO DO NOT PREFER A DRY
OUTCOME.

CONSIDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS
HAVE PREVAILED S OF NOVA SCOTIA. LATELY THE TREND HAS BEEN COLD AIR
SURGING S THROUGH THE C-CONUS TO THE GULF WITH NEW ENGLAND AVERAGING
WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TROUGH. FEEL TREND CONTINUES
WITH THIS FORECAST. LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...BELIEVE
RIDGING OVER THE W-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SYNOPTICS ACROSS
OUR REGION.

SO FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY FORECAST. BLUSTERY W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS / SHORES WITH THE
WARMER OCEAN. OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP
TO H9. GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH... STRONGEST OVER THE SHORES AND
ADJACENT WATERS. WILL REMAIN MILD BENEATH THE SW-FLOW. HIGHS TO NEAR-
60S AS A WARMER AIRMASS LINGERS ALOFT.

NOW AS TO THE STORM...

SYNOPTICALLY...SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES INVOKE / MAINTAIN A H5 OPEN-
WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING S INTO THE GULF. NO UPSTREAM BLOCKING WITH
TELECONNECTIONS OF +AO/+NAO INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES. INTERACTING WITH THE OFFSHORE SW-NE FRONTAL BOUNDARY-
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED RESULTS IN DEEPENING
SFC-H85 LOW PRESSURE UP ALONG THE W-ATLANTIC PASSING WITHIN VICINITY
OF THE 40N / 70W BENCH-MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY UP AGAINST AN
INTERIOR REGION LACKING OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE / ARCTIC AIR.

INITIALLY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROADSCALE
ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF MID- TO LOW-LEVELS DYNAMICALLY
COOLING TOWARDS EVENING SETTING UP THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM. UNDERCUTTING MARGINALLY COLD AIR AIDED BY SURFACE N/NE-FLOW
WITH W/NW AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW OF INTERIOR ORIGIN LOOK TO KEEP THE N/W
INTERIOR AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...MILD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THERMAL FIELDS DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
KEY IS THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF H85 LOW / H925 < -2C. WHILE
LIKELY TO SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR N/W...ANOTHER KEY TO
THE FORECAST TO THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS WETBULBING AT THE
SURFACE.

AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW LOOKS
TO TRACK WITHIN THE VICINITY OF 40N / 70W BENCHMARK. UNCERTAIN AS TO
DEPTH / STRENGTH / EXACT TRACK. EXPECT STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BUT
FEEL BEST MOISTURE WILL BE E OF THE LOW WITHIN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT /WCB/. THOUGH FORCING THROUGH A
MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NW OF THE H85 LOW BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN E/NE WITH
THE LACK OF A STRONG H7 CLOSED LOW AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING
NOR -EPV /CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB LACKING/. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT BUT MARGINAL /AROUND UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S/. NO NEIGHBORING
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. WETBULBING LIKELY CONTINUES. SNOWS N/W OF
THE H85 LOW WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS /
HEADLINES AS MODEL RUNS /WHILE PERSISTENT/ CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH
THE LOW AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. ACTIVITY CONCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY
MORNING REARWARD OF WHICH SOME STRONG SW-FLOW IS POSSIBLE. SEE THE
ADDITIONAL DETAILS BELOW:

SNOWS / HEAVY RAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR FOR
SNOW WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER SE MA...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. NOT EVEN DOES CIPS ANALOGS
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE...AND WITH THE WOBBLING OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRACK / STRENGTH OF THE LOW...IT IS ANYONES
GUESS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WINDS...SOME CONCERN DEPENDING THE DEPTH OF THE LOW. NE-FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BE STRONG...BUT SOME CONCERN AFTER THE LOW PASSES
WITH SW-FLOW IMPACTING THE S-COAST. LIKELY TO BE AN ACCOMPANYING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET. WITH THE 22.12Z GFS...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE A
ROBUST CONFIDENCE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND /MAINLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS/ FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH...POSSIBLY 40 MPH. BEARS
MONITORING.

COASTAL FLOODING...INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NE ALONG E MA INTO
CAPE COD BAY. A BRIEF SURGE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE LOW-CENTER PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THOUGH HIGH TIDES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW /10 FT
FOR BOSTON/. WITH THE SHORT RESIDENCY TIME...AM NOT ANTICIPATING AT
THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL
PREFERENCE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS W AND CENTRAL MA WITH ISOLD
-FZRA IN THE BERKSHIRES. SW GUSTS TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THECT
VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS SOUTH AND 2K WINDS WEST AROUND 40 KT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 20-30 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ENTIRE AREA. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT
VALLEY SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET 50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS MAINLY N OF TERMINAL.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE STRONG WINDS AND THE THREAT OF +RA ALONG THE SHORES
WITH SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECTING A MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS. HEIGHT OF THE STORM
WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG W/SW FLOW CONTINUES EXCEEDING GALE FORCE. BOATS ACROSS THE
S-WATERS REPORTING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KTS AT TIMES. GALE FORCE
WARNINGS CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT OF AVERAGE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...ONLY SMALL-CRAFTS FOR NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR
WHICH SHALL REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS. SEAS BUILDING 6-10
FEET OVER THE S-WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW SCA DURING AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS. LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEPS SEAS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION AND ITS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL HAVE STRONG SCA TO PERHAPS GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH VERY LONG
FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS EXPECTED. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS EXPECTED
INITIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE WATERS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE WATERS. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECTING SEAS TO ENHANCE
AROUND THE STORM CENTER WHICH LOOKS TO PASS IN VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...VISIBILITIES REDUCED WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ233>235-
     237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230611
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
111 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON TAP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QUIET AND
MILD TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING E INTO W MA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ACROSS E NY. ACTIVITY ASSOCD WITH 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE PLUME. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY IN W
MA ALLOWING GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP
WILL REMAIN ALONG AND N OF THE PIKE WHERE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS IS GREATER. MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DECREASES FURTHER S
FROM THE PIKE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH CT/RI AND
SE MA.

TEMPS IN W MA STILL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S...AND LOWER 40S
CT VALLEY AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INDUCING S FLOW. NOTED A FEW
LOCATIONS IN W MA 32-33 DEGREES PER MESONET SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN...MAINLY BERKSHIRES...BUT THE THREAT IS LOW. GUSTY SW
WINDS TO 30-40 MPH ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
DAYBREAK. TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL DRYING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH MILDER
TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +5C SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
GIVEN MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PRETTY MILD...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THE
NEXT SHIFT NEEDS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES. GUIDANCE
SEEMS A BIT COOL CONSIDERING THOSE FACTORS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN BE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VERY
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE WILL CAUSE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. GEFS IS SHOWING THAT
PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH STRONG FORCING AND HIGH PWATS IN PLACE...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT FORTUNATELY SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
EXPECT MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH
TERRITORY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING...BUT SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.
THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ON MONDAY. WE COULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...BUT INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST ABOVE OUR HEADS. THE ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF WE CAN GENERATE A LITTLE FINE LINE THAT
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL FOR HIGHS GIVEN
850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +10C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCALES APPROACH 70 IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MIX OUT A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD AROUND TUESDAY
- STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

ECHO SIMILAR SENTIMENTS PER WPC: MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE DIFFERENCES
LEND TO LOW CONFIDENCE...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN ENERGY LEND TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WITH UPSTREAM ISSUES IN
HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS OFF THE
E-COAST AND WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE IMPACTS / OUTCOMES UNTIL WE GET
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS OF THE TIMEFRAME.

HAVE ONLY A MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BELOW-AVERAGE
PREDICTABILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STORM ITSELF WILL REMAIN ON
THE W-SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS /AGREED UPON BY WPC/
IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK SO DO NOT PREFER A DRY
OUTCOME.

CONSIDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS
HAVE PREVAILED S OF NOVA SCOTIA. LATELY THE TREND HAS BEEN COLD AIR
SURGING S THROUGH THE C-CONUS TO THE GULF WITH NEW ENGLAND AVERAGING
WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TROUGH. FEEL TREND CONTINUES
WITH THIS FORECAST. LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...BELIEVE
RIDGING OVER THE W-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SYNOPTICS ACROSS
OUR REGION.

SO FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY FORECAST. BLUSTERY W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS / SHORES WITH THE
WARMER OCEAN. OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP
TO H9. GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH... STRONGEST OVER THE SHORES AND
ADJACENT WATERS. WILL REMAIN MILD BENEATH THE SW-FLOW. HIGHS TO NEAR-
60S AS A WARMER AIRMASS LINGERS ALOFT.

NOW AS TO THE STORM...

SYNOPTICALLY...SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES INVOKE / MAINTAIN A H5 OPEN-
WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING S INTO THE GULF. NO UPSTREAM BLOCKING WITH
TELECONNECTIONS OF +AO/+NAO INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES. INTERACTING WITH THE OFFSHORE SW-NE FRONTAL BOUNDARY-
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED RESULTS IN DEEPENING
SFC-H85 LOW PRESSURE UP ALONG THE W-ATLANTIC PASSING WITHIN VICINITY
OF THE 40N / 70W BENCH-MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY UP AGAINST AN
INTERIOR REGION LACKING OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE / ARCTIC AIR.

INITIALLY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROADSCALE
ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF MID- TO LOW-LEVELS DYNAMICALLY
COOLING TOWARDS EVENING SETTING UP THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM. UNDERCUTTING MARGINALLY COLD AIR AIDED BY SURFACE N/NE-FLOW
WITH W/NW AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW OF INTERIOR ORIGIN LOOK TO KEEP THE N/W
INTERIOR AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...MILD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THERMAL FIELDS DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
KEY IS THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF H85 LOW / H925 < -2C. WHILE
LIKELY TO SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR N/W...ANOTHER KEY TO
THE FORECAST TO THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS WETBULBING AT THE
SURFACE.

AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW LOOKS
TO TRACK WITHIN THE VICINITY OF 40N / 70W BENCHMARK. UNCERTAIN AS TO
DEPTH / STRENGTH / EXACT TRACK. EXPECT STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BUT
FEEL BEST MOISTURE WILL BE E OF THE LOW WITHIN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT /WCB/. THOUGH FORCING THROUGH A
MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NW OF THE H85 LOW BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN E/NE WITH
THE LACK OF A STRONG H7 CLOSED LOW AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING
NOR -EPV /CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB LACKING/. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT BUT MARGINAL /AROUND UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S/. NO NEIGHBORING
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. WETBULBING LIKELY CONTINUES. SNOWS N/W OF
THE H85 LOW WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS /
HEADLINES AS MODEL RUNS /WHILE PERSISTENT/ CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH
THE LOW AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. ACTIVITY CONCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY
MORNING REARWARD OF WHICH SOME STRONG SW-FLOW IS POSSIBLE. SEE THE
ADDITIONAL DETAILS BELOW:

SNOWS / HEAVY RAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR FOR
SNOW WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER SE MA...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. NOT EVEN DOES CIPS ANALOGS
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE...AND WITH THE WOBBLING OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRACK / STRENGTH OF THE LOW...IT IS ANYONES
GUESS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WINDS...SOME CONCERN DEPENDING THE DEPTH OF THE LOW. NE-FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BE STRONG...BUT SOME CONCERN AFTER THE LOW PASSES
WITH SW-FLOW IMPACTING THE S-COAST. LIKELY TO BE AN ACCOMPANYING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET. WITH THE 22.12Z GFS...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE A
ROBUST CONFIDENCE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND /MAINLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS/ FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH...POSSIBLY 40 MPH. BEARS
MONITORING.

COASTAL FLOODING...INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NE ALONG E MA INTO
CAPE COD BAY. A BRIEF SURGE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE LOW-CENTER PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THOUGH HIGH TIDES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW /10 FT
FOR BOSTON/. WITH THE SHORT RESIDENCY TIME...AM NOT ANTICIPATING AT
THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL
PREFERENCE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS W AND CENTRAL MA WITH ISOLD
-FZRA IN THE BERKSHIRES. SW GUSTS TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THECT
VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS SOUTH AND 2K WINDS WEST AROUND 40 KT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 20-30 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ENTIRE AREA. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT
VALLEY SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET 50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS MAINLY N OF TERMINAL.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE STRONG WINDS AND THE THREAT OF +RA ALONG THE SHORES
WITH SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECTING A MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS. HEIGHT OF THE STORM
WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG W/SW FLOW CONTINUES EXCEEDING GALE FORCE. BOATS ACROSS THE
S-WATERS REPORTING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KTS AT TIMES. GALE FORCE
WARNINGS CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT OF AVERAGE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...ONLY SMALL-CRAFTS FOR NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR
WHICH SHALL REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS. SEAS BUILDING 6-10
FEET OVER THE S-WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW SCA DURING AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS. LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEPS SEAS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION AND ITS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL HAVE STRONG SCA TO PERHAPS GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH VERY LONG
FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS EXPECTED. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS EXPECTED
INITIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE WATERS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE WATERS. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECTING SEAS TO ENHANCE
AROUND THE STORM CENTER WHICH LOOKS TO PASS IN VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...VISIBILITIES REDUCED WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ233>235-
     237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230611
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
111 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON TAP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QUIET AND
MILD TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING E INTO W MA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ACROSS E NY. ACTIVITY ASSOCD WITH 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE PLUME. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP CONSIDERABLY IN W
MA ALLOWING GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP
WILL REMAIN ALONG AND N OF THE PIKE WHERE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS IS GREATER. MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DECREASES FURTHER S
FROM THE PIKE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH CT/RI AND
SE MA.

TEMPS IN W MA STILL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S...AND LOWER 40S
CT VALLEY AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INDUCING S FLOW. NOTED A FEW
LOCATIONS IN W MA 32-33 DEGREES PER MESONET SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN...MAINLY BERKSHIRES...BUT THE THREAT IS LOW. GUSTY SW
WINDS TO 30-40 MPH ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
DAYBREAK. TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL DRYING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH MILDER
TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +5C SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
GIVEN MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PRETTY MILD...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THE
NEXT SHIFT NEEDS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES. GUIDANCE
SEEMS A BIT COOL CONSIDERING THOSE FACTORS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN BE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VERY
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE WILL CAUSE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. GEFS IS SHOWING THAT
PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH STRONG FORCING AND HIGH PWATS IN PLACE...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT FORTUNATELY SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
EXPECT MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH
TERRITORY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING...BUT SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.
THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ON MONDAY. WE COULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...BUT INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST ABOVE OUR HEADS. THE ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF WE CAN GENERATE A LITTLE FINE LINE THAT
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL FOR HIGHS GIVEN
850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +10C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCALES APPROACH 70 IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MIX OUT A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD AROUND TUESDAY
- STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

ECHO SIMILAR SENTIMENTS PER WPC: MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE DIFFERENCES
LEND TO LOW CONFIDENCE...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN ENERGY LEND TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WITH UPSTREAM ISSUES IN
HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS OFF THE
E-COAST AND WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE IMPACTS / OUTCOMES UNTIL WE GET
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS OF THE TIMEFRAME.

HAVE ONLY A MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BELOW-AVERAGE
PREDICTABILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STORM ITSELF WILL REMAIN ON
THE W-SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS /AGREED UPON BY WPC/
IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK SO DO NOT PREFER A DRY
OUTCOME.

CONSIDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS
HAVE PREVAILED S OF NOVA SCOTIA. LATELY THE TREND HAS BEEN COLD AIR
SURGING S THROUGH THE C-CONUS TO THE GULF WITH NEW ENGLAND AVERAGING
WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TROUGH. FEEL TREND CONTINUES
WITH THIS FORECAST. LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...BELIEVE
RIDGING OVER THE W-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SYNOPTICS ACROSS
OUR REGION.

SO FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY FORECAST. BLUSTERY W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS / SHORES WITH THE
WARMER OCEAN. OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP
TO H9. GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH... STRONGEST OVER THE SHORES AND
ADJACENT WATERS. WILL REMAIN MILD BENEATH THE SW-FLOW. HIGHS TO NEAR-
60S AS A WARMER AIRMASS LINGERS ALOFT.

NOW AS TO THE STORM...

SYNOPTICALLY...SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES INVOKE / MAINTAIN A H5 OPEN-
WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING S INTO THE GULF. NO UPSTREAM BLOCKING WITH
TELECONNECTIONS OF +AO/+NAO INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES. INTERACTING WITH THE OFFSHORE SW-NE FRONTAL BOUNDARY-
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED RESULTS IN DEEPENING
SFC-H85 LOW PRESSURE UP ALONG THE W-ATLANTIC PASSING WITHIN VICINITY
OF THE 40N / 70W BENCH-MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY UP AGAINST AN
INTERIOR REGION LACKING OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE / ARCTIC AIR.

INITIALLY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROADSCALE
ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF MID- TO LOW-LEVELS DYNAMICALLY
COOLING TOWARDS EVENING SETTING UP THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM. UNDERCUTTING MARGINALLY COLD AIR AIDED BY SURFACE N/NE-FLOW
WITH W/NW AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW OF INTERIOR ORIGIN LOOK TO KEEP THE N/W
INTERIOR AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...MILD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THERMAL FIELDS DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
KEY IS THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF H85 LOW / H925 < -2C. WHILE
LIKELY TO SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR N/W...ANOTHER KEY TO
THE FORECAST TO THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS WETBULBING AT THE
SURFACE.

AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW LOOKS
TO TRACK WITHIN THE VICINITY OF 40N / 70W BENCHMARK. UNCERTAIN AS TO
DEPTH / STRENGTH / EXACT TRACK. EXPECT STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BUT
FEEL BEST MOISTURE WILL BE E OF THE LOW WITHIN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT /WCB/. THOUGH FORCING THROUGH A
MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NW OF THE H85 LOW BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN E/NE WITH
THE LACK OF A STRONG H7 CLOSED LOW AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING
NOR -EPV /CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB LACKING/. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT BUT MARGINAL /AROUND UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S/. NO NEIGHBORING
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. WETBULBING LIKELY CONTINUES. SNOWS N/W OF
THE H85 LOW WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS /
HEADLINES AS MODEL RUNS /WHILE PERSISTENT/ CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH
THE LOW AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. ACTIVITY CONCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY
MORNING REARWARD OF WHICH SOME STRONG SW-FLOW IS POSSIBLE. SEE THE
ADDITIONAL DETAILS BELOW:

SNOWS / HEAVY RAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR FOR
SNOW WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER SE MA...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. NOT EVEN DOES CIPS ANALOGS
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE...AND WITH THE WOBBLING OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRACK / STRENGTH OF THE LOW...IT IS ANYONES
GUESS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WINDS...SOME CONCERN DEPENDING THE DEPTH OF THE LOW. NE-FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BE STRONG...BUT SOME CONCERN AFTER THE LOW PASSES
WITH SW-FLOW IMPACTING THE S-COAST. LIKELY TO BE AN ACCOMPANYING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET. WITH THE 22.12Z GFS...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE A
ROBUST CONFIDENCE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND /MAINLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS/ FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH...POSSIBLY 40 MPH. BEARS
MONITORING.

COASTAL FLOODING...INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NE ALONG E MA INTO
CAPE COD BAY. A BRIEF SURGE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE LOW-CENTER PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THOUGH HIGH TIDES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW /10 FT
FOR BOSTON/. WITH THE SHORT RESIDENCY TIME...AM NOT ANTICIPATING AT
THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL
PREFERENCE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR BERKSHIRES AND
MONADNOCKS. SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS W AND CENTRAL MA WITH ISOLD
-FZRA IN THE BERKSHIRES. SW GUSTS TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THECT
VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS SOUTH AND 2K WINDS WEST AROUND 40 KT.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z
CT VALLEY AND REACHING E COAST BY 10Z. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE MON
MORNING NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF 12-16Z W TO E BUT
IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN. A PERIOD OF S WIND GUSTS TO
30-40 KT POSSIBLE 12-16Z MON ALONG THE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS...THEN SW GUSTS TO 20-30 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ENTIRE AREA. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT CT
VALLEY SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG MON MORNING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET 50-60 KT DEVELOPS AT 2K FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS MAINLY N OF TERMINAL.
LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE STRONG WINDS AND THE THREAT OF +RA ALONG THE SHORES
WITH SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECTING A MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS. HEIGHT OF THE STORM
WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG W/SW FLOW CONTINUES EXCEEDING GALE FORCE. BOATS ACROSS THE
S-WATERS REPORTING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KTS AT TIMES. GALE FORCE
WARNINGS CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT OF AVERAGE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...ONLY SMALL-CRAFTS FOR NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR
WHICH SHALL REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS. SEAS BUILDING 6-10
FEET OVER THE S-WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW SCA DURING AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS. LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEPS SEAS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION AND ITS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL HAVE STRONG SCA TO PERHAPS GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH VERY LONG
FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS EXPECTED. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS EXPECTED
INITIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE WATERS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE WATERS. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECTING SEAS TO ENHANCE
AROUND THE STORM CENTER WHICH LOOKS TO PASS IN VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...VISIBILITIES REDUCED WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ233>235-
     237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 230553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1253 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN BERKS
NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...AND
THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. IT APPEARS THAT A SUFFICIENT TEMP/DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...COMBINED WITH GROUND TEMPS NEAR FREEZING DUE TO OUR
RECENT COLD SPELL...HAVE LARGELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE REPORTS OF ICE
FORMATION DESPITE TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL RISE
VERY SLOWLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH DAYBREAK. ANY ICE
ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET
ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT
NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF
-RAPL IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME
-RA AROUND AFT 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL TIL ARND 10Z.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 230508
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1208 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
SCHOHARIE...ALBANY AND WESTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES. TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S TO L40S...AND THE DEWPTS HAVE RISEN ENOUGH THAT THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN
SARATOGA REGION...AND THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S AND BE
RISING AFTER 06Z/SUN. ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT
NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF
-RAPL IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME
-RA AROUND AFT 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL TIL ARND 10Z.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 230508
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1208 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
SCHOHARIE...ALBANY AND WESTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES. TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S TO L40S...AND THE DEWPTS HAVE RISEN ENOUGH THAT THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN
SARATOGA REGION...AND THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S AND BE
RISING AFTER 06Z/SUN. ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT
NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF
-RAPL IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME
-RA AROUND AFT 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL TIL ARND 10Z.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KBOX 230325
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1025 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON TAP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QUIET AND
MILD TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
NOSE OF 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET ACTING ON DEEPENING MOISTURE RESULTING
IN A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENG. COVERAGE OF PRECIP
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. MAIN
FOCUS FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND N OF THE PIKE WHERE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IS GREATER. MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
DECREASES FURTHER S FROM THE PIKE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH CT/RI AND SE MA. TEMPS IN WESTERN NEW ENG WELL
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET INDUCING S FLOW UP THE CT VALLEY AND SW IN THE BERKSHIRES.
STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED POCKET OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN BUT THE THREAT IS DIMINISHING. GUSTY SW
WINDS TO 30-40 MPH ALONG THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE GUSTY SW WINDS HAVE PUSHED TEMPS TO 45-50 ALONG THE
S COAST AND EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN...WITH MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN.

UPDATED TEMPS/POPS TO REFLECT FORECAST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL DRYING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH MILDER
TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +5C SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
GIVEN MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PRETTY MILD...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THE
NEXT SHIFT NEEDS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES. GUIDANCE
SEEMS A BIT COOL CONSIDERING THOSE FACTORS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN BE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VERY
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE WILL CAUSE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. GEFS IS SHOWING THAT
PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH STRONG FORCING AND HIGH PWATS IN PLACE...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT FORTUNATELY SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
EXPECT MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH
TERRITORY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING...BUT SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.
THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ON MONDAY. WE COULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...BUT INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST ABOVE OUR HEADS. THE ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF WE CAN GENERATE A LITTLE FINE LINE THAT
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL FOR HIGHS GIVEN
850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +10C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCALES APPROACH 70 IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MIX OUT A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD AROUND TUESDAY
- STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

ECHO SIMILAR SENTIMENTS PER WPC: MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE DIFFERENCES
LEND TO LOW CONFIDENCE...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN ENERGY LEND TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WITH UPSTREAM ISSUES IN
HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS OFF THE
E-COAST AND WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE IMPACTS / OUTCOMES UNTIL WE GET
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS OF THE TIMEFRAME.

HAVE ONLY A MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BELOW-AVERAGE
PREDICTABILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STORM ITSELF WILL REMAIN ON
THE W-SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS /AGREED UPON BY WPC/
IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK SO DO NOT PREFER A DRY
OUTCOME.

CONSIDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS
HAVE PREVAILED S OF NOVA SCOTIA. LATELY THE TREND HAS BEEN COLD AIR
SURGING S THROUGH THE C-CONUS TO THE GULF WITH NEW ENGLAND AVERAGING
WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TROUGH. FEEL TREND CONTINUES
WITH THIS FORECAST. LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...BELIEVE
RIDGING OVER THE W-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SYNOPTICS ACROSS
OUR REGION.

SO FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY FORECAST. BLUSTERY W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS / SHORES WITH THE
WARMER OCEAN. OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP
TO H9. GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH... STRONGEST OVER THE SHORES AND
ADJACENT WATERS. WILL REMAIN MILD BENEATH THE SW-FLOW. HIGHS TO NEAR-
60S AS A WARMER AIRMASS LINGERS ALOFT.

NOW AS TO THE STORM...

SYNOPTICALLY...SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES INVOKE / MAINTAIN A H5 OPEN-
WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING S INTO THE GULF. NO UPSTREAM BLOCKING WITH
TELECONNECTIONS OF +AO/+NAO INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES. INTERACTING WITH THE OFFSHORE SW-NE FRONTAL BOUNDARY-
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED RESULTS IN DEEPENING
SFC-H85 LOW PRESSURE UP ALONG THE W-ATLANTIC PASSING WITHIN VICINITY
OF THE 40N / 70W BENCH-MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY UP AGAINST AN
INTERIOR REGION LACKING OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE / ARCTIC AIR.

INITIALLY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROADSCALE
ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF MID- TO LOW-LEVELS DYNAMICALLY
COOLING TOWARDS EVENING SETTING UP THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM. UNDERCUTTING MARGINALLY COLD AIR AIDED BY SURFACE N/NE-FLOW
WITH W/NW AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW OF INTERIOR ORIGIN LOOK TO KEEP THE N/W
INTERIOR AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...MILD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THERMAL FIELDS DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
KEY IS THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF H85 LOW / H925 < -2C. WHILE
LIKELY TO SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR N/W...ANOTHER KEY TO
THE FORECAST TO THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS WETBULBING AT THE
SURFACE.

AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW LOOKS
TO TRACK WITHIN THE VICINITY OF 40N / 70W BENCHMARK. UNCERTAIN AS TO
DEPTH / STRENGTH / EXACT TRACK. EXPECT STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BUT
FEEL BEST MOISTURE WILL BE E OF THE LOW WITHIN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT /WCB/. THOUGH FORCING THROUGH A
MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NW OF THE H85 LOW BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN E/NE WITH
THE LACK OF A STRONG H7 CLOSED LOW AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING
NOR -EPV /CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB LACKING/. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT BUT MARGINAL /AROUND UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S/. NO NEIGHBORING
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. WETBULBING LIKELY CONTINUES. SNOWS N/W OF
THE H85 LOW WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS /
HEADLINES AS MODEL RUNS /WHILE PERSISTENT/ CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH
THE LOW AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. ACTIVITY CONCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY
MORNING REARWARD OF WHICH SOME STRONG SW-FLOW IS POSSIBLE. SEE THE
ADDITIONAL DETAILS BELOW:

SNOWS / HEAVY RAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR FOR
SNOW WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER SE MA...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. NOT EVEN DOES CIPS ANALOGS
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE...AND WITH THE WOBBLING OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRACK / STRENGTH OF THE LOW...IT IS ANYONES
GUESS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WINDS...SOME CONCERN DEPENDING THE DEPTH OF THE LOW. NE-FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BE STRONG...BUT SOME CONCERN AFTER THE LOW PASSES
WITH SW-FLOW IMPACTING THE S-COAST. LIKELY TO BE AN ACCOMPANYING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET. WITH THE 22.12Z GFS...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE A
ROBUST CONFIDENCE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND /MAINLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS/ FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH...POSSIBLY 40 MPH. BEARS
MONITORING.

COASTAL FLOODING...INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NE ALONG E MA INTO
CAPE COD BAY. A BRIEF SURGE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE LOW-CENTER PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THOUGH HIGH TIDES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW /10 FT
FOR BOSTON/. WITH THE SHORT RESIDENCY TIME...AM NOT ANTICIPATING AT
THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL
PREFERENCE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

0Z UPDATE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

LOW-END VFR CIGS AT WORST. MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. ISO-SCT
-SHRA. ISO -FZRA POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W MA AND S NH. NOT TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

MAIN CONCERN: GUSTY W/SW WINDS 25-30 KTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND E-SHORELINE WHILE 30-35 KTS ACROSS THE S/SE SHORELINE. LLWS A
FACTOR WITH W/SW JET 2 KFT AGL AROUND 40-45 KTS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH DIMINISHED WINDS AND MORE S-FLOW TRAJECTORY.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED +RA BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY INTO THE MORNING...
TAPERING BY AFTERNOON. LOW RISK TSRA MONDAY MORN ALONG S-COAST.
S-WINDS BY DAYBREAK GUSTING 30-40 KTS OVER E/SE MA...RI...AND E/SE
CT...PERHAPS STRONGER WITH ANY +RA/TSRA. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH S JET 2 KFT AGL AROUND 50 KTS.

WHILE WET WEATHER EXITS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR...S/SW WINDS REMAIN BRISK WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS OVER SE MA
AND S RI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. -SHRA TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
MENTION. COLLABORATION WITH CWSU...WILL CONTINUE LLWS THREAT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. TDWR / AMDAR SOUNDINGS OBSERVING WINDS
2-3 KFT AGL AROUND 50 KTS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. -SHRA TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
MENTION. S-FLOW PREVAILING...WARMER CONDITIONS...DO NOT BELIEVE
-FZRA WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE STRONG WINDS AND THE THREAT OF +RA ALONG THE SHORES
WITH SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECTING A MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS. HEIGHT OF THE STORM
WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG W/SW FLOW CONTINUES EXCEEDING GALE FORCE. BOATS ACROSS THE
S-WATERS REPORTING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KTS AT TIMES. GALE FORCE
WARNINGS CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT OF AVERAGE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...ONLY SMALL-CRAFTS FOR NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR
WHICH SHALL REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS. SEAS BUILDING 6-10
FEET OVER THE S-WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW SCA DURING AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS. LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEPS SEAS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION AND ITS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL HAVE STRONG SCA TO PERHAPS GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH VERY LONG
FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS EXPECTED. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS EXPECTED
INITIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE WATERS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE WATERS. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECTING SEAS TO ENHANCE
AROUND THE STORM CENTER WHICH LOOKS TO PASS IN VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...VISIBILITIES REDUCED WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 230305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
SCHOHARIE...ALBANY AND WESTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES. TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S TO L40S...AND THE DEWPTS HAVE RISEN ENOUGH THAT THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN
SARATOGA REGION...AND THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S AND BE
RISING AFTER 06Z/SUN. ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-FZRA/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 03Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT NOT
MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF -FZRAPL
IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 01Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME -RA
AROUND BTWN 01Z-05Z WITH SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 230305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
SCHOHARIE...ALBANY AND WESTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES. TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S TO L40S...AND THE DEWPTS HAVE RISEN ENOUGH THAT THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN
SARATOGA REGION...AND THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S AND BE
RISING AFTER 06Z/SUN. ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-FZRA/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 03Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT NOT
MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF -FZRAPL
IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 01Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME -RA
AROUND BTWN 01Z-05Z WITH SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 230305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
SCHOHARIE...ALBANY AND WESTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES. TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S TO L40S...AND THE DEWPTS HAVE RISEN ENOUGH THAT THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN
SARATOGA REGION...AND THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S AND BE
RISING AFTER 06Z/SUN. ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-FZRA/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 03Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT NOT
MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF -FZRAPL
IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 01Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME -RA
AROUND BTWN 01Z-05Z WITH SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 230305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
SCHOHARIE...ALBANY AND WESTERN RENSSELAER COUNTIES. TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S TO L40S...AND THE DEWPTS HAVE RISEN ENOUGH THAT THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN
SARATOGA REGION...AND THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S AND BE
RISING AFTER 06Z/SUN. ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-FZRA/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 03Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT NOT
MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF -FZRAPL
IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 01Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME -RA
AROUND BTWN 01Z-05Z WITH SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBOX 230005
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON TAP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QUIET AND
MILD TUESDAY. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHOWERS
PROCEEDING WITH THE MEAN W-E FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE INVOKING ASCENT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. REPORTS BEING
GATHERED OUT OF THE ALBANY REGION AND ACROSS N VT/NH OF A SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE. EVEN THOUGH LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
SPREADS EXIST INDICATIVE OF DRY-AIR AT THE SURFACE...PRECIPITATION
ALBEIT LIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.

NWS ALBANY HAS EXPANDED THEIR HEADLINES ACCORDINGLY AND FOR GOOD
REASON. BUT HERE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HOLDING OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. LOOKING AT
PRESENT SURFACE OBS...STILL BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND E
OF THE BERKSHIRES WITH A PRETTY DECENT S FUNNELING OF FLOW THROUGH
THE CT-RIVER VALLEY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-30S. ONLY A
COUPLE OF SPOTS ARE REPORTING 34-35 DEGREES IN NW MA AND S NH
/ENHANCED DATA DISPLAY SHOWS THIS WELL/.

FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BUT COULD BE OVERDONE IF WARMER AIR PERSISTS. REGION APPEARS ON
THE CUSP AND FEEL ONLY POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD...NOT SO MUCH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WORK ACROSS THE REGION GENERATING
LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIPITATION. MAIN CONCERN OF FREEZING
RAIN WITH COLDER AIR TRAPPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NOT AN IDEAL
SETUP WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET JUST OFF THE DECK WHICH
WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE REGION FROM DECOUPLING AND ALSO ALLOW
SOME MILDER AIR ALOFT TO PERHAPS MIX DOWN A BIT.

LOW TEMPS MAY BOTTOM OUT NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING...BUT THEN GRADUALLY RISE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL NIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND. IN FACT...THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BLOWING OFF
THE OCEAN. IT WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SOME
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE MIX DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL DRYING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH MILDER
TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +5C SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
GIVEN MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PRETTY MILD...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THE
NEXT SHIFT NEEDS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES. GUIDANCE
SEEMS A BIT COOL CONSIDERING THOSE FACTORS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN BE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VERY
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE WILL CAUSE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. GEFS IS SHOWING THAT
PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH STRONG FORCING AND HIGH PWATS IN PLACE...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT FORTUNATELY SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
EXPECT MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH
TERRITORY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING...BUT SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.
THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ON MONDAY. WE COULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...BUT INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST ABOVE OUR HEADS. THE ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF WE CAN GENERATE A LITTLE FINE LINE THAT
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL FOR HIGHS GIVEN
850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +10C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCALES APPROACH 70 IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MIX OUT A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD AROUND TUESDAY
- STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

ECHO SIMILAR SENTIMENTS PER WPC: MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE DIFFERENCES
LEND TO LOW CONFIDENCE...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN ENERGY LEND TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WITH UPSTREAM ISSUES IN
HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS OFF THE
E-COAST AND WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE IMPACTS / OUTCOMES UNTIL WE GET
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS OF THE TIMEFRAME.

HAVE ONLY A MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BELOW-AVERAGE
PREDICTABILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STORM ITSELF WILL REMAIN ON
THE W-SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS /AGREED UPON BY WPC/
IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK SO DO NOT PREFER A DRY
OUTCOME.

CONSIDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS
HAVE PREVAILED S OF NOVA SCOTIA. LATELY THE TREND HAS BEEN COLD AIR
SURGING S THROUGH THE C-CONUS TO THE GULF WITH NEW ENGLAND AVERAGING
WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TROUGH. FEEL TREND CONTINUES
WITH THIS FORECAST. LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...BELIEVE
RIDGING OVER THE W-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SYNOPTICS ACROSS
OUR REGION.

SO FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY FORECAST. BLUSTERY W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS / SHORES WITH THE
WARMER OCEAN. OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP
TO H9. GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH... STRONGEST OVER THE SHORES AND
ADJACENT WATERS. WILL REMAIN MILD BENEATH THE SW-FLOW. HIGHS TO NEAR-
60S AS A WARMER AIRMASS LINGERS ALOFT.

NOW AS TO THE STORM...

SYNOPTICALLY...SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES INVOKE / MAINTAIN A H5 OPEN-
WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING S INTO THE GULF. NO UPSTREAM BLOCKING WITH
TELECONNECTIONS OF +AO/+NAO INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES. INTERACTING WITH THE OFFSHORE SW-NE FRONTAL BOUNDARY-
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED RESULTS IN DEEPENING
SFC-H85 LOW PRESSURE UP ALONG THE W-ATLANTIC PASSING WITHIN VICINITY
OF THE 40N / 70W BENCH-MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY UP AGAINST AN
INTERIOR REGION LACKING OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE / ARCTIC AIR.

INITIALLY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROADSCALE
ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF MID- TO LOW-LEVELS DYNAMICALLY
COOLING TOWARDS EVENING SETTING UP THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM. UNDERCUTTING MARGINALLY COLD AIR AIDED BY SURFACE N/NE-FLOW
WITH W/NW AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW OF INTERIOR ORIGIN LOOK TO KEEP THE N/W
INTERIOR AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...MILD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THERMAL FIELDS DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
KEY IS THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF H85 LOW / H925 < -2C. WHILE
LIKELY TO SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR N/W...ANOTHER KEY TO
THE FORECAST TO THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS WETBULBING AT THE
SURFACE.

AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW LOOKS
TO TRACK WITHIN THE VICINITY OF 40N / 70W BENCHMARK. UNCERTAIN AS TO
DEPTH / STRENGTH / EXACT TRACK. EXPECT STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BUT
FEEL BEST MOISTURE WILL BE E OF THE LOW WITHIN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT /WCB/. THOUGH FORCING THROUGH A
MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NW OF THE H85 LOW BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN E/NE WITH
THE LACK OF A STRONG H7 CLOSED LOW AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING
NOR -EPV /CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB LACKING/. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT BUT MARGINAL /AROUND UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S/. NO NEIGHBORING
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. WETBULBING LIKELY CONTINUES. SNOWS N/W OF
THE H85 LOW WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS /
HEADLINES AS MODEL RUNS /WHILE PERSISTENT/ CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH
THE LOW AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. ACTIVITY CONCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY
MORNING REARWARD OF WHICH SOME STRONG SW-FLOW IS POSSIBLE. SEE THE
ADDITIONAL DETAILS BELOW:

SNOWS / HEAVY RAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR FOR
SNOW WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER SE MA...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. NOT EVEN DOES CIPS ANALOGS
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE...AND WITH THE WOBBLING OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRACK / STRENGTH OF THE LOW...IT IS ANYONES
GUESS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WINDS...SOME CONCERN DEPENDING THE DEPTH OF THE LOW. NE-FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BE STRONG...BUT SOME CONCERN AFTER THE LOW PASSES
WITH SW-FLOW IMPACTING THE S-COAST. LIKELY TO BE AN ACCOMPANYING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET. WITH THE 22.12Z GFS...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE A
ROBUST CONFIDENCE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND /MAINLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS/ FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH...POSSIBLY 40 MPH. BEARS
MONITORING.

COASTAL FLOODING...INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NE ALONG E MA INTO
CAPE COD BAY. A BRIEF SURGE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE LOW-CENTER PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THOUGH HIGH TIDES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW /10 FT
FOR BOSTON/. WITH THE SHORT RESIDENCY TIME...AM NOT ANTICIPATING AT
THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL
PREFERENCE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

0Z UPDATE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

LOW-END VFR CIGS AT WORST. MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. ISO-SCT
-SHRA. ISO -FZRA POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W MA AND S NH. NOT TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

MAIN CONCERN: GUSTY W/SW WINDS 25-30 KTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND E-SHORELINE WHILE 30-35 KTS ACROSS THE S/SE SHORELINE. LLWS A
FACTOR WITH W/SW JET 2 KFT AGL AROUND 40-45 KTS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH DIMINISHED WINDS AND MORE S-FLOW TRAJECTORY.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED +RA BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY INTO THE MORNING...
TAPERING BY AFTERNOON. LOW RISK TSRA MONDAY MORN ALONG S-COAST.
S-WINDS BY DAYBREAK GUSTING 30-40 KTS OVER E/SE MA...RI...AND E/SE
CT...PERHAPS STRONGER WITH ANY +RA/TSRA. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH S JET 2 KFT AGL AROUND 50 KTS.

WHILE WET WEATHER EXITS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR...S/SW WINDS REMAIN BRISK WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS OVER SE MA
AND S RI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. -SHRA TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
MENTION. COLLABORATION WITH CWSU...WILL CONTINUE LLWS THREAT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. TDWR / AMDAR SOUNDINGS OBSERVING WINDS
2-3 KFT AGL AROUND 50 KTS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. -SHRA TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
MENTION. S-FLOW PREVAILING...WARMER CONDITIONS...DO NOT BELIEVE
-FZRA WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE STRONG WINDS AND THE THREAT OF +RA ALONG THE SHORES
WITH SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECTING A MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS. HEIGHT OF THE STORM
WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG W/SW FLOW CONTINUES EXCEEDING GALE FORCE. BOATS ACROSS THE
S-WATERS REPORTING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KTS AT TIMES. GALE FORCE
WARNINGS CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT OF AVERAGE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...ONLY SMALL-CRAFTS FOR NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR
WHICH SHALL REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS. SEAS BUILDING 6-10
FEET OVER THE S-WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW SCA DURING AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS. LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEPS SEAS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION AND ITS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL HAVE STRONG SCA TO PERHAPS GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH VERY LONG
FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS EXPECTED. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS EXPECTED
INITIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE WATERS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE WATERS. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECTING SEAS TO ENHANCE
AROUND THE STORM CENTER WHICH LOOKS TO PASS IN VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...VISIBILITIES REDUCED WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 230005
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON TAP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QUIET AND
MILD TUESDAY. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHOWERS
PROCEEDING WITH THE MEAN W-E FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE INVOKING ASCENT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. REPORTS BEING
GATHERED OUT OF THE ALBANY REGION AND ACROSS N VT/NH OF A SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN MIXTURE. EVEN THOUGH LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
SPREADS EXIST INDICATIVE OF DRY-AIR AT THE SURFACE...PRECIPITATION
ALBEIT LIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.

NWS ALBANY HAS EXPANDED THEIR HEADLINES ACCORDINGLY AND FOR GOOD
REASON. BUT HERE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HOLDING OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. LOOKING AT
PRESENT SURFACE OBS...STILL BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND E
OF THE BERKSHIRES WITH A PRETTY DECENT S FUNNELING OF FLOW THROUGH
THE CT-RIVER VALLEY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-30S. ONLY A
COUPLE OF SPOTS ARE REPORTING 34-35 DEGREES IN NW MA AND S NH
/ENHANCED DATA DISPLAY SHOWS THIS WELL/.

FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BUT COULD BE OVERDONE IF WARMER AIR PERSISTS. REGION APPEARS ON
THE CUSP AND FEEL ONLY POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST DURING
THE EVENING PERIOD...NOT SO MUCH TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE WORK ACROSS THE REGION GENERATING
LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIPITATION. MAIN CONCERN OF FREEZING
RAIN WITH COLDER AIR TRAPPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NOT AN IDEAL
SETUP WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET JUST OFF THE DECK WHICH
WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE REGION FROM DECOUPLING AND ALSO ALLOW
SOME MILDER AIR ALOFT TO PERHAPS MIX DOWN A BIT.

LOW TEMPS MAY BOTTOM OUT NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING...BUT THEN GRADUALLY RISE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL NIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND. IN FACT...THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BLOWING OFF
THE OCEAN. IT WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SOME
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE MIX DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL DRYING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH MILDER
TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +5C SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
GIVEN MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PRETTY MILD...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THE
NEXT SHIFT NEEDS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES. GUIDANCE
SEEMS A BIT COOL CONSIDERING THOSE FACTORS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN BE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VERY
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE WILL CAUSE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. GEFS IS SHOWING THAT
PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH STRONG FORCING AND HIGH PWATS IN PLACE...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT FORTUNATELY SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
EXPECT MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH
TERRITORY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING...BUT SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.
THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ON MONDAY. WE COULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...BUT INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST ABOVE OUR HEADS. THE ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF WE CAN GENERATE A LITTLE FINE LINE THAT
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL FOR HIGHS GIVEN
850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +10C. SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCALES APPROACH 70 IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MIX OUT A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD AROUND TUESDAY
- STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

ECHO SIMILAR SENTIMENTS PER WPC: MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE DIFFERENCES
LEND TO LOW CONFIDENCE...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN ENERGY LEND TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WITH UPSTREAM ISSUES IN
HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS OFF THE
E-COAST AND WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE IMPACTS / OUTCOMES UNTIL WE GET
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS OF THE TIMEFRAME.

HAVE ONLY A MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BELOW-AVERAGE
PREDICTABILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STORM ITSELF WILL REMAIN ON
THE W-SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS /AGREED UPON BY WPC/
IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK SO DO NOT PREFER A DRY
OUTCOME.

CONSIDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS
HAVE PREVAILED S OF NOVA SCOTIA. LATELY THE TREND HAS BEEN COLD AIR
SURGING S THROUGH THE C-CONUS TO THE GULF WITH NEW ENGLAND AVERAGING
WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TROUGH. FEEL TREND CONTINUES
WITH THIS FORECAST. LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...BELIEVE
RIDGING OVER THE W-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SYNOPTICS ACROSS
OUR REGION.

SO FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY FORECAST. BLUSTERY W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS / SHORES WITH THE
WARMER OCEAN. OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP
TO H9. GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH... STRONGEST OVER THE SHORES AND
ADJACENT WATERS. WILL REMAIN MILD BENEATH THE SW-FLOW. HIGHS TO NEAR-
60S AS A WARMER AIRMASS LINGERS ALOFT.

NOW AS TO THE STORM...

SYNOPTICALLY...SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES INVOKE / MAINTAIN A H5 OPEN-
WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING S INTO THE GULF. NO UPSTREAM BLOCKING WITH
TELECONNECTIONS OF +AO/+NAO INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES. INTERACTING WITH THE OFFSHORE SW-NE FRONTAL BOUNDARY-
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED RESULTS IN DEEPENING
SFC-H85 LOW PRESSURE UP ALONG THE W-ATLANTIC PASSING WITHIN VICINITY
OF THE 40N / 70W BENCH-MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY UP AGAINST AN
INTERIOR REGION LACKING OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE / ARCTIC AIR.

INITIALLY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROADSCALE
ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF MID- TO LOW-LEVELS DYNAMICALLY
COOLING TOWARDS EVENING SETTING UP THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM. UNDERCUTTING MARGINALLY COLD AIR AIDED BY SURFACE N/NE-FLOW
WITH W/NW AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW OF INTERIOR ORIGIN LOOK TO KEEP THE N/W
INTERIOR AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...MILD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THERMAL FIELDS DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
KEY IS THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF H85 LOW / H925 < -2C. WHILE
LIKELY TO SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR N/W...ANOTHER KEY TO
THE FORECAST TO THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS WETBULBING AT THE
SURFACE.

AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW LOOKS
TO TRACK WITHIN THE VICINITY OF 40N / 70W BENCHMARK. UNCERTAIN AS TO
DEPTH / STRENGTH / EXACT TRACK. EXPECT STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BUT
FEEL BEST MOISTURE WILL BE E OF THE LOW WITHIN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT /WCB/. THOUGH FORCING THROUGH A
MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NW OF THE H85 LOW BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN E/NE WITH
THE LACK OF A STRONG H7 CLOSED LOW AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING
NOR -EPV /CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB LACKING/. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT BUT MARGINAL /AROUND UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S/. NO NEIGHBORING
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. WETBULBING LIKELY CONTINUES. SNOWS N/W OF
THE H85 LOW WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS /
HEADLINES AS MODEL RUNS /WHILE PERSISTENT/ CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH
THE LOW AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. ACTIVITY CONCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY
MORNING REARWARD OF WHICH SOME STRONG SW-FLOW IS POSSIBLE. SEE THE
ADDITIONAL DETAILS BELOW:

SNOWS / HEAVY RAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR FOR
SNOW WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER SE MA...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. NOT EVEN DOES CIPS ANALOGS
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE...AND WITH THE WOBBLING OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRACK / STRENGTH OF THE LOW...IT IS ANYONES
GUESS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WINDS...SOME CONCERN DEPENDING THE DEPTH OF THE LOW. NE-FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BE STRONG...BUT SOME CONCERN AFTER THE LOW PASSES
WITH SW-FLOW IMPACTING THE S-COAST. LIKELY TO BE AN ACCOMPANYING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET. WITH THE 22.12Z GFS...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE A
ROBUST CONFIDENCE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND /MAINLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS/ FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH...POSSIBLY 40 MPH. BEARS
MONITORING.

COASTAL FLOODING...INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NE ALONG E MA INTO
CAPE COD BAY. A BRIEF SURGE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE LOW-CENTER PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THOUGH HIGH TIDES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW /10 FT
FOR BOSTON/. WITH THE SHORT RESIDENCY TIME...AM NOT ANTICIPATING AT
THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL
PREFERENCE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

0Z UPDATE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

LOW-END VFR CIGS AT WORST. MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. ISO-SCT
-SHRA. ISO -FZRA POSSIBLE ACROSS N/W MA AND S NH. NOT TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

MAIN CONCERN: GUSTY W/SW WINDS 25-30 KTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND E-SHORELINE WHILE 30-35 KTS ACROSS THE S/SE SHORELINE. LLWS A
FACTOR WITH W/SW JET 2 KFT AGL AROUND 40-45 KTS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH DIMINISHED WINDS AND MORE S-FLOW TRAJECTORY.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR-IFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED +RA BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY INTO THE MORNING...
TAPERING BY AFTERNOON. LOW RISK TSRA MONDAY MORN ALONG S-COAST.
S-WINDS BY DAYBREAK GUSTING 30-40 KTS OVER E/SE MA...RI...AND E/SE
CT...PERHAPS STRONGER WITH ANY +RA/TSRA. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH S JET 2 KFT AGL AROUND 50 KTS.

WHILE WET WEATHER EXITS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR...S/SW WINDS REMAIN BRISK WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS OVER SE MA
AND S RI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. -SHRA TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
MENTION. COLLABORATION WITH CWSU...WILL CONTINUE LLWS THREAT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. TDWR / AMDAR SOUNDINGS OBSERVING WINDS
2-3 KFT AGL AROUND 50 KTS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. -SHRA TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
MENTION. S-FLOW PREVAILING...WARMER CONDITIONS...DO NOT BELIEVE
-FZRA WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE STRONG WINDS AND THE THREAT OF +RA ALONG THE SHORES
WITH SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECTING A MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS. HEIGHT OF THE STORM
WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

7 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG W/SW FLOW CONTINUES EXCEEDING GALE FORCE. BOATS ACROSS THE
S-WATERS REPORTING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KTS AT TIMES. GALE FORCE
WARNINGS CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT OF AVERAGE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...ONLY SMALL-CRAFTS FOR NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR
WHICH SHALL REMAIN SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS. SEAS BUILDING 6-10
FEET OVER THE S-WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW SCA DURING AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS. LEFT OVER SWELL WILL KEEPS SEAS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION AND ITS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AS
TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL HAVE STRONG SCA TO PERHAPS GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH VERY LONG
FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS EXPECTED. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS EXPECTED
INITIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE WATERS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE WATERS. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECTING SEAS TO ENHANCE
AROUND THE STORM CENTER WHICH LOOKS TO PASS IN VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...VISIBILITIES REDUCED WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KALY 230003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HELDERBERGS...NRN TACONICS...NRN
BERKSHIRES...WASHINGTON CTY...AND SRN VT. MANY REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN COMING ON. THIS ADVISORY WILL GO TO 5 AM
SUNDAY...THOUGH PARTS MAY BE DROPPED SOONER. THE BETTER BATCH OF
PCPN IS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
DACKS...BUT REPORTS KEEP COMING IN EASTWARD OVER THE CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH
SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING REPORTED.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS TONIGHT...AS A 120
KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW AT 500 HPA.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-FZRA/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 03Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT NOT
MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF -FZRAPL
IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 01Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME -RA
AROUND BTWN 01Z-05Z WITH SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 230003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HELDERBERGS...NRN TACONICS...NRN
BERKSHIRES...WASHINGTON CTY...AND SRN VT. MANY REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN COMING ON. THIS ADVISORY WILL GO TO 5 AM
SUNDAY...THOUGH PARTS MAY BE DROPPED SOONER. THE BETTER BATCH OF
PCPN IS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
DACKS...BUT REPORTS KEEP COMING IN EASTWARD OVER THE CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH
SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING REPORTED.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS TONIGHT...AS A 120
KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW AT 500 HPA.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-FZRA/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 03Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT NOT
MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF -FZRAPL
IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 01Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME -RA
AROUND BTWN 01Z-05Z WITH SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 222331
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HELDERBERGS...NRN TACONICS...NRN
BERKSHIRES...WASHINGTON CTY...AND SRN VT. MANY REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN COMING ON. THIS ADVISORY WILL GO TO 5 AM
SUNDAY...THOUGH PARTS MAY BE DROPPED SOONER. THE BETTER BATCH OF
PCPN IS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
DACKS...BUT REPORTS KEEP COMING IN EASTWARD OVER THE CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH
SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING REPORTED.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS TONIGHT...AS A 120
KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW AT 500 HPA.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFCHIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN FROM
THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 222331
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HELDERBERGS...NRN TACONICS...NRN
BERKSHIRES...WASHINGTON CTY...AND SRN VT. MANY REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN COMING ON. THIS ADVISORY WILL GO TO 5 AM
SUNDAY...THOUGH PARTS MAY BE DROPPED SOONER. THE BETTER BATCH OF
PCPN IS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
DACKS...BUT REPORTS KEEP COMING IN EASTWARD OVER THE CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH
SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING REPORTED.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS TONIGHT...AS A 120
KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW AT 500 HPA.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFCHIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN FROM
THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 222331
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HELDERBERGS...NRN TACONICS...NRN
BERKSHIRES...WASHINGTON CTY...AND SRN VT. MANY REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN COMING ON. THIS ADVISORY WILL GO TO 5 AM
SUNDAY...THOUGH PARTS MAY BE DROPPED SOONER. THE BETTER BATCH OF
PCPN IS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
DACKS...BUT REPORTS KEEP COMING IN EASTWARD OVER THE CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH
SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING REPORTED.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS TONIGHT...AS A 120
KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW AT 500 HPA.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFCHIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN FROM
THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 222331
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HELDERBERGS...NRN TACONICS...NRN
BERKSHIRES...WASHINGTON CTY...AND SRN VT. MANY REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN COMING ON. THIS ADVISORY WILL GO TO 5 AM
SUNDAY...THOUGH PARTS MAY BE DROPPED SOONER. THE BETTER BATCH OF
PCPN IS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
DACKS...BUT REPORTS KEEP COMING IN EASTWARD OVER THE CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH
SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING REPORTED.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS TONIGHT...AS A 120
KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW AT 500 HPA.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFCHIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN FROM
THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KBOX 222108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
407 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON TAP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QUIET AND
MILD TUESDAY. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

405 PM UPDATE...

WEAK SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.  LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY...BUT SHORTWAVE
SHOULD GENERATE ENOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT/SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.  WE ARE MAINLY JUST LOOKING AT A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AND NOT EVEN CLOSE TO A WASHOUT.
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WAY TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW.  THE MAIN CONCERN
IS FOR LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TRAPPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP SINCE THERE IS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE DECK.  THIS WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE REGION
FROM DECOUPLING AND ALSO ALLOW SOME MILDER AIR ALOFT TO PERHAPS MIX
DOWN A BIT.

GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING...DID NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
WITH THIS PACKAGE.  HOWEVER...STILL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED POCKETS
OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN WITH
THE COLD GROUND AND DRY AIR IN PLACE.  WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IN
CASE TEMPS DROP OFF FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND THE NEED ARISES FOR A
SHORT FUSED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPS MAY BOTTOM OUT NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING...BUT THEN GRADUALLY RISE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL NIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND.  IN FACT...THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BLOWING OFF THE
OCEAN.  IT WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SOME OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE MIX DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL DRYING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH MILDER
TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +5C SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
GIVEN MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PRETTY MILD...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THE
NEXT SHIFT NEEDS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES.  GUIDANCE
SEEMS A BIT COOL CONSIDERING THOSE FACTORS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN BE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VERY
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.  THE WILL CAUSE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE.  GEFS IS SHOWING THAT
PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  WITH STRONG FORCING AND HIGH PWATS IN PLACE...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT FORTUNATELY SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
EXPECT MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH
TERRITORY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.  NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING...BUT SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.
THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ON MONDAY.  WE COULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...BUT INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST ABOVE OUR HEADS.  THE ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF WE CAN GENERATE A LITTLE FINE LINE THAT COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.  GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850
MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +10C.  SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS.  NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCALES APPROACH 70 IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW PEEKS OF SUN.  GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MIX OUT A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD AROUND TUESDAY
- STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

ECHO SIMILAR SENTIMENTS PER WPC: MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE DIFFERENCES
LEND TO LOW CONFIDENCE...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN ENERGY LEND TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WITH UPSTREAM ISSUES IN
HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS OFF THE
E-COAST AND WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE IMPACTS / OUTCOMES UNTIL WE GET
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS OF THE TIMEFRAME.

HAVE ONLY A MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BELOW-AVERAGE
PREDICTABILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STORM ITSELF WILL REMAIN ON
THE W-SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS /AGREED UPON BY WPC/
IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK SO DO NOT PREFER A DRY
OUTCOME.

CONSIDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS
HAVE PREVAILED S OF NOVA SCOTIA. LATELY THE TREND HAS BEEN COLD AIR
SURGING S THROUGH THE C-CONUS TO THE GULF WITH NEW ENGLAND AVERAGING
WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TROUGH. FEEL TREND CONTINUES
WITH THIS FORECAST. LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...BELIEVE
RIDGING OVER THE W-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SYNOPTICS ACROSS
OUR REGION.

SO FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY FORECAST. BLUSTERY W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS / SHORES WITH THE
WARMER OCEAN. OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP
TO H9. GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH... STRONGEST OVER THE SHORES AND
ADJACENT WATERS. WILL REMAIN MILD BENEATH THE SW-FLOW. HIGHS TO NEAR-
60S AS A WARMER AIRMASS LINGERS ALOFT.

NOW AS TO THE STORM...

SYNOPTICALLY...SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES INVOKE / MAINTAIN A H5 OPEN-
WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING S INTO THE GULF. NO UPSTREAM BLOCKING WITH
TELECONNECTIONS OF +AO/+NAO INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES. INTERACTING WITH THE OFFSHORE SW-NE FRONTAL BOUNDARY-
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED RESULTS IN DEEPENING
SFC-H85 LOW PRESSURE UP ALONG THE W-ATLANTIC PASSING WITHIN VICINITY
OF THE 40N / 70W BENCH-MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY UP AGAINST AN
INTERIOR REGION LACKING OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE / ARCTIC AIR.

INITIALLY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROADSCALE
ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF MID- TO LOW-LEVELS DYNAMICALLY
COOLING TOWARDS EVENING SETTING UP THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM. UNDERCUTTING MARGINALLY COLD AIR AIDED BY SURFACE N/NE-FLOW
WITH W/NW AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW OF INTERIOR ORIGIN LOOK TO KEEP THE N/W
INTERIOR AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...MILD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THERMAL FIELDS DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. KEY
IS THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF H85 LOW / H925 < -2C. WHILE LIKELY TO
SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR N/W...ANOTHER KEY TO THE FORECAST
TO THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS WETBULBING AT THE SURFACE.

AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW LOOKS
TO TRACK WITHIN THE VICINITY OF 40N / 70W BENCHMARK. UNCERTAIN AS TO
DEPTH / STRENGTH / EXACT TRACK. EXPECT STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BUT
FEEL BEST MOISTURE WILL BE E OF THE LOW WITHIN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM-CONVEYOR-BELT /WCB/. THOUGH FORCING THROUGH A
MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NW OF THE H85 LOW BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN E/NE WITH
THE LACK OF A STRONG H7 CLOSED LOW AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING
NOR -EPV /CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB LACKING/. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT BUT MARGINAL /AROUND UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S/. NO NEIGHBORING
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. WETBULBING LIKELY CONTINUES. SNOWS N/W OF
THE H85 LOW WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS /
HEADLINES AS MODEL RUNS /WHILE PERSISTENT/ CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH
THE LOW AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. ACTIVITY CONCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY
MORNING REARWARD OF WHICH SOME STRONG SW-FLOW IS POSSIBLE. SEE THE
ADDITIONAL DETAILS BELOW:

SNOWS / HEAVY RAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR FOR
SNOW WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER SE MA...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. NOT EVEN DOES CIPS ANALOGS
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE...AND WITH THE WOBBLING OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRACK / STRENGTH OF THE LOW...IT IS ANYONES
GUESS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WINDS...SOME CONCERN DEPENDING THE DEPTH OF THE LOW. NE-FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BE STRONG...BUT SOME CONCERN AFTER THE LOW PASSES
WITH SW-FLOW IMPACTING THE S-CAOST. LIKELY TO BE AN ACCOMPANYING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET. WITH THE 22.12Z GFS...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE A
ROBUST CONFIDENCE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND /MAINLY THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/
FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH...POSSIBLY 40 MPH. BEARS MONITORING.

COASTAL FLOODING...INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NE ALONG E MA INTO
CAPE COD BAY. A BRIEF SURGE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE LOW-CENTER PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THOUGH HIGH TIDES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW /10 FT
FOR BOSTON/. WITH THE SHORT RESIDENCY TIME...AM NOT ANTICIPATING AT
THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL
PREFERENCE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

4 PM UPDATE...

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN A FEW SHOWERS.  ISOLATED POCKETS OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DISTANT INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN...BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD AS TEMPS ARE
MARGINAL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ELSEWHERE...AS SURFACE WINDS
DIMINISH SOME EXPECT LLWS WITH A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OFF THE
DECK.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE EVENING.  EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN RAIN
WHICH MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AFTER 6Z CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
MORNING....BEFORE TAPERING TO A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON.  LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MON AM ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LLWS
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.  GUSTY WINDS MAY OVER SPREAD THE REST OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MUSTER SOME PEEKS
OF SUNSHINE ALLOWING BETTER MIXING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.  SOME
LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT
DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE STRONG WINDS AND THE THREAT OF +RA ALONG THE SHORES
WITH SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECTING A MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS. HEIGHT OF THE STORM
WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.



&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  GIVEN STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL AND AIR STILL COLDER THAN THE OCEAN...GALE FORCE
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS MANY OPEN WATERS TONIGHT.
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS WITH SCA HEADLINES FOR
BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.  SEAS BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FEET
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN
THE MORNING WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW
SCA DURING AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL
KEEPS SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WIND WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SUNDAY EVENING.  LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.  THERE WILL BE AN
INVERSION AND ITS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN.  AT THE VERY LEAST WILL HAVE STRONG SCA TO
PERHAPS GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO
MON.  SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS EXPECTED. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS EXPECTED
INITIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE WATERS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE WATERS. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECTING SEAS TO ENHANCE
AROUND THE STORM CENTER WHICH LOOKS TO PASS IN VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...VISIBILITIES REDUCED WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
407 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON TAP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT
WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QUIET AND
MILD TUESDAY. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

405 PM UPDATE...

WEAK SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.  LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY...BUT SHORTWAVE
SHOULD GENERATE ENOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT/SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.  WE ARE MAINLY JUST LOOKING AT A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AND NOT EVEN CLOSE TO A WASHOUT.
THERMAL PROFILES ARE WAY TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW.  THE MAIN CONCERN
IS FOR LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TRAPPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP SINCE THERE IS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE DECK.  THIS WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE REGION
FROM DECOUPLING AND ALSO ALLOW SOME MILDER AIR ALOFT TO PERHAPS MIX
DOWN A BIT.

GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING...DID NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
WITH THIS PACKAGE.  HOWEVER...STILL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED POCKETS
OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN WITH
THE COLD GROUND AND DRY AIR IN PLACE.  WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IN
CASE TEMPS DROP OFF FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND THE NEED ARISES FOR A
SHORT FUSED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPS MAY BOTTOM OUT NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING...BUT THEN GRADUALLY RISE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL NIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND.  IN FACT...THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BLOWING OFF THE
OCEAN.  IT WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS SOME OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE MIX DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...

***BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN VERY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
  IMPACTING THE AM RUSH HOUR***

SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AND RESULT IN MID LEVEL DRYING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH MILDER
TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND +5C SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
GIVEN MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PRETTY MILD...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THE
NEXT SHIFT NEEDS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES.  GUIDANCE
SEEMS A BIT COOL CONSIDERING THOSE FACTORS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN BE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VERY
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.  THE WILL CAUSE A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE.  GEFS IS SHOWING THAT
PWATS INCREASE TO AT LEAST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  WITH STRONG FORCING AND HIGH PWATS IN PLACE...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT FORTUNATELY SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
EXPECT MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH
TERRITORY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.  NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING...BUT SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.
THERE ALSO IS A LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ON MONDAY.  WE COULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY...BUT INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST ABOVE OUR HEADS.  THE ONE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS IF WE CAN GENERATE A LITTLE FINE LINE THAT COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TOUCH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING.

BULK OF THE RAIN IS OVER BY MON AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.  GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL FOR HIGHS GIVEN 850
MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +10C.  SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS.  NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LOCALES APPROACH 70 IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW PEEKS OF SUN.  GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MIX OUT A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- DRY AND MILD AROUND TUESDAY
- STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

ECHO SIMILAR SENTIMENTS PER WPC: MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE DIFFERENCES
LEND TO LOW CONFIDENCE...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN ENERGY LEND TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WITH UPSTREAM ISSUES IN
HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS OFF THE
E-COAST AND WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE IMPACTS / OUTCOMES UNTIL WE GET
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS OF THE TIMEFRAME.

HAVE ONLY A MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...BELOW-AVERAGE
PREDICTABILITY. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE STORM ITSELF WILL REMAIN ON
THE W-SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS /AGREED UPON BY WPC/
IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK SO DO NOT PREFER A DRY
OUTCOME.

CONSIDER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS ANOMALOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS
HAVE PREVAILED S OF NOVA SCOTIA. LATELY THE TREND HAS BEEN COLD AIR
SURGING S THROUGH THE C-CONUS TO THE GULF WITH NEW ENGLAND AVERAGING
WITHIN THE E-PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TROUGH. FEEL TREND CONTINUES
WITH THIS FORECAST. LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...BELIEVE
RIDGING OVER THE W-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SYNOPTICS ACROSS
OUR REGION.

SO FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

DRY FORECAST. BLUSTERY W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS / SHORES WITH THE
WARMER OCEAN. OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP
TO H9. GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH... STRONGEST OVER THE SHORES AND
ADJACENT WATERS. WILL REMAIN MILD BENEATH THE SW-FLOW. HIGHS TO NEAR-
60S AS A WARMER AIRMASS LINGERS ALOFT.

NOW AS TO THE STORM...

SYNOPTICALLY...SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES INVOKE / MAINTAIN A H5 OPEN-
WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING S INTO THE GULF. NO UPSTREAM BLOCKING WITH
TELECONNECTIONS OF +AO/+NAO INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF MID-
LEVEL IMPULSES. INTERACTING WITH THE OFFSHORE SW-NE FRONTAL BOUNDARY-
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED RESULTS IN DEEPENING
SFC-H85 LOW PRESSURE UP ALONG THE W-ATLANTIC PASSING WITHIN VICINITY
OF THE 40N / 70W BENCH-MARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY UP AGAINST AN
INTERIOR REGION LACKING OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE / ARCTIC AIR.

INITIALLY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROADSCALE
ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF MID- TO LOW-LEVELS DYNAMICALLY
COOLING TOWARDS EVENING SETTING UP THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM. UNDERCUTTING MARGINALLY COLD AIR AIDED BY SURFACE N/NE-FLOW
WITH W/NW AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW OF INTERIOR ORIGIN LOOK TO KEEP THE N/W
INTERIOR AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...MILD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THERMAL FIELDS DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. KEY
IS THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF H85 LOW / H925 < -2C. WHILE LIKELY TO
SEE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR N/W...ANOTHER KEY TO THE FORECAST
TO THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS WETBULBING AT THE SURFACE.

AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SURFACE LOW LOOKS
TO TRACK WITHIN THE VICINITY OF 40N / 70W BENCHMARK. UNCERTAIN AS TO
DEPTH / STRENGTH / EXACT TRACK. EXPECT STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BUT
FEEL BEST MOISTURE WILL BE E OF THE LOW WITHIN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM-CONVEYOR-BELT /WCB/. THOUGH FORCING THROUGH A
MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE NW OF THE H85 LOW BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL-JET...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN E/NE WITH
THE LACK OF A STRONG H7 CLOSED LOW AND LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING
NOR -EPV /CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WCB LACKING/. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
UNDERCUT BUT MARGINAL /AROUND UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S/. NO NEIGHBORING
ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. WETBULBING LIKELY CONTINUES. SNOWS N/W OF
THE H85 LOW WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO AMOUNTS /
HEADLINES AS MODEL RUNS /WHILE PERSISTENT/ CONTINUE TO WOBBLE WITH
THE LOW AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. ACTIVITY CONCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY
MORNING REARWARD OF WHICH SOME STRONG SW-FLOW IS POSSIBLE. SEE THE
ADDITIONAL DETAILS BELOW:

SNOWS / HEAVY RAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE N/W INTERIOR FOR
SNOW WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER SE MA...BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE. NOT EVEN DOES CIPS ANALOGS
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONFIDENCE...AND WITH THE WOBBLING OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE TRACK / STRENGTH OF THE LOW...IT IS ANYONES
GUESS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WINDS...SOME CONCERN DEPENDING THE DEPTH OF THE LOW. NE-FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BE STRONG...BUT SOME CONCERN AFTER THE LOW PASSES
WITH SW-FLOW IMPACTING THE S-CAOST. LIKELY TO BE AN ACCOMPANYING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL-JET. WITH THE 22.12Z GFS...CIPS ANALOGS HAVE A
ROBUST CONFIDENCE OVER SE NEW ENGLAND /MAINLY THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/
FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH...POSSIBLY 40 MPH. BEARS MONITORING.

COASTAL FLOODING...INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NE ALONG E MA INTO
CAPE COD BAY. A BRIEF SURGE ANTICIPATED AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE LOW-CENTER PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THOUGH HIGH TIDES
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW /10 FT
FOR BOSTON/. WITH THE SHORT RESIDENCY TIME...AM NOT ANTICIPATING AT
THIS TIME MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL
PREFERENCE.

THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND...

CONTINUED PACIFIC ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BROADER OPEN-WAVE H5
TROUGH WILL TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TO WHETHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INVOKE ANOTHER OFFSHORE LOW AROUND FRIDAY. ONCE THE H5 TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT THE RETURN OF BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
USHERED BY NW-FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

4 PM UPDATE...

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN A FEW SHOWERS.  ISOLATED POCKETS OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DISTANT INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN...BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD AS TEMPS ARE
MARGINAL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ELSEWHERE...AS SURFACE WINDS
DIMINISH SOME EXPECT LLWS WITH A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OFF THE
DECK.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE EVENING.  EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN RAIN
WHICH MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AFTER 6Z CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
MORNING....BEFORE TAPERING TO A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON.  LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MON AM ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LLWS
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.  GUSTY WINDS MAY OVER SPREAD THE REST OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN MUSTER SOME PEEKS
OF SUNSHINE ALLOWING BETTER MIXING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.  SOME
LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT
DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W/SW-FLOW DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS
OVER SE-COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT MONDAY NIGHT. VFR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE STRONG WINDS AND THE THREAT OF +RA ALONG THE SHORES
WITH SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECTING A MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS. HEIGHT OF THE STORM
WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.



&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  GIVEN STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL AND AIR STILL COLDER THAN THE OCEAN...GALE FORCE
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS MANY OPEN WATERS TONIGHT.
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR MOST OPEN WATERS WITH SCA HEADLINES FOR
BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.  SEAS BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FEET
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN
THE MORNING WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DROPPING BELOW
SCA DURING AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL
KEEPS SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WIND WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SUNDAY EVENING.  LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.  THERE WILL BE AN
INVERSION AND ITS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN.  AT THE VERY LEAST WILL HAVE STRONG SCA TO
PERHAPS GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO
MON.  SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH VERY LONG FETCH.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING W/SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT...RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS EXPECTED. WAVES AROUND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS EXPECTED
INITIALLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE WATERS. THREATS
CONSIDERED ARE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE WATERS. EXACT SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECTING SEAS TO ENHANCE
AROUND THE STORM CENTER WHICH LOOKS TO PASS IN VICINITY OF THE 40N /
70W BENCHMARK AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...VISIBILITIES REDUCED WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KALY 222056
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
356 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTERY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 222 PM EST...OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A 120 KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT
FRONT EXIT REGION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH
THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 HPA. CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ADVANCING FROM CENTRAL NY TOWARDS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFCHIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN FROM
THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 222056
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
356 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTERY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 222 PM EST...OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A 120 KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT
FRONT EXIT REGION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH
THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 HPA. CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ADVANCING FROM CENTRAL NY TOWARDS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS...
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFCHIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN FROM
THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 222056
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
356 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER