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000
FXUS61 KALY 020821
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
421 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES AND AREAS OF
FOG...CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE TODAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA NEAR CAPE COD. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY SLIDES
EASTWARD...IT IS PULLING MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT.
WITH THESE SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITHIN THE
BROAD EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THEY ARE TRACKING INTO PARTS OF SRN
VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD HILLS THIS MORNING. A FEW
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH
EASTWARD TO KEEP ANY PRECIP EAST OF OUR AREA AND CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS HAPPENED
BY ABOUT 8 AM...SO WILL DROP ALL POPS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY
THE MID MORNING HOURS.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN SHOWERS IS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS /STRATUS/
AND AREAS OF FOG. WITH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE TODAY...IT
WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BECOME MIXED OUT.
AS A RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...WITH CLOUDS EVENTUALLY BREAKING FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SUN DURING THE AFTN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY
AREN/T AS THICK...AND MORE SUN CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH THE
WARMEST ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL REGION/HUDSON
VALLEY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A BRIEF AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP THANKS TO THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH 850
HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES C...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOST OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...ALTHOUGH
WESTERN AREAS WILL START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS BY LATER IN THE
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT WILL
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT FOR SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS /ABOUT 3 TO 5 STD ABOVE NORMAL
ACCORDING TO THE 850 HPA V WINDS ON THE 00Z GEFS/ WILL BE IN
PLACE...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. PWATS WILL EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHICH IS ABOUT 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS A RESULT...A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS WELL...WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN
THE FRONT/S PROGRESS AS WELL...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ABOUT A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF
RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR SATURDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AS WELL DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS IN PLACE.
WE WON/T MENTION THUNDER AT THIS TIME...AS INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
LACKING. WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS...IT WILL BE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY THE EVENING
HOURS...ALLOWING FOR COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT...SOME ADDITIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW/LAKE
ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
FOR SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH
THE AXIS WEST OF OUR REGION...PUTTING OUR REGION IN THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW PORTION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM THE EXITING COLD FRONT WILL EXIT SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
RAPIDLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OFF
THE GREAT LAKES...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD EXTEND FROM THE LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO ANOTHER UPPER
IMPULSE...BASED MORE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...POSSIBLY TRACKING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THROUGH OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND SOME BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS RETROGRADES
A LITTLE. THERE IS A LOOSE CONSENSUS IN SOME WARMING AND
RETROGRADING OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE DISAGREEMENTS ARE WHETHER WE
GET LITTLE TO NO COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS...DEPENDING ON THE PRESENCE OR NON PRESENCE OF WELL DEFINED
UPPER DYNAMICS. FOR NOW...INDICATING JUST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...BUT
THE DETAILS HOW MUCH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TUESDAY WILL GET CLEARER AS
WE GET NEARER TO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WITH LOWER 60S
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE ARE ALSO CONFLICTS IN GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO WHETHER ANOTHER
UPPER IMPULSE AND THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.
THE RAPID UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS DIFFICULT FOR LONG RANGE GUIDANCE TO
RESOLVE. SO...JUST INDICATING SHOWERS EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SOME UPPER
50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL LOW EXITING THE REGION HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT KALB AND KPSF WITH CHANCES DECREASING TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

CLOUDS HEIGHTS WILL BE JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET AT KGFL BUT TRENDING
DOWNWARD TO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND VFR PERIODICALLY AT KALB THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z. CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT KPOU AND KPSF SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z-22Z. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY RAIN BEING VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER
10Z...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...WHICH IS NOT
TOO FAR WEST OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY. SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KPSF AND KPOU...KPSF WITH POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN AND KPOU WITH SOME POSSIBLE PARTIAL CLEARING. IT SHOULD
BE MENTIONED THAT CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR SUGGEST ANY
CLEARING WILL TAKE QUITE SOME TIME TO SPREAD EAST...EVEN THOUGH IT
IS INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND CENTRAL/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

ONCE THE SYSTEM EXITS...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET AFTER
18Z-22Z AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPSF FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.
GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH A LIGHT N-NE FLOW AT LESS
THAN 6 KT SHIFTING TO E-SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THURSDAY...TRENDING
BACK TO VARIABLE/CALM DURING THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF MORNING FOG...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

AFTER MORNING FOG BURNS OFF TOMORROW...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO
45 TO 50 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
5 TO 10 MPH ON FRIDAY.  A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE...DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION...A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OF RAINFALL.  ASIDE FROM SOME
PUDDLES ON ROADWAYS...THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

MAINLY DRY...BUT MUCH COOLER....WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.  OVERALL...AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS LOOK TO MAINLY HOLD
STEADY OR ONLY SLIGHTLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







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000
FXUS61 KBOX 020749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY WITH
A DRYING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS AT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BANDS OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
FROM LAST EVENING.  MOST AREAS ARE RECEIVING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ON THE OUTER CAPE.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CURRENTLY DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE BEST MOISTURE
AND CONVECTION IS WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  GIVEN THIS AND THE
EXPECTED TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD...HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.  TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN FELL YESTERDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECTING ANOTHER HALF
AN INCH AT MOST THROUGH TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT A GENERAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE
DAY.  MOST OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH CLEARING BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST.  GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.  GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHILLY FEELING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...CLEARING CONTINUES AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...HIGH PRESSURE...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE QUIET BETWEEN
TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS.  THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST
OF NANTUCKET AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE
QUIET...SOMEWHAT MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... TROUGH MIGRATING TO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND
BECOMES A CLOSED LOW AND SITS IN THAT POSITION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW...ONE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND THE SECOND TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LOW THEN SLOWLY MIGRATES NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
HUDSON BAY MIDWEEK. THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN USA THEN BECOMES
ZONAL THURSDAY.

CONTOUR HEIGHTS WITHIN THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...SUGGESTING COLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CORE. BUT THAT WILL
BE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HERE IN NEW ENGLAND HEIGHTS INITIALLY DROP
BEHIND THE FIRST SHORTWAVE EARLY SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING COLDER
AIR TO NEW ENGLAND. BUT THE LOW REMAINS TO OUR WEST WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC. HEIGHTS REBUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH AN EAST FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WHICH DEPARTED NEW ENGLAND WILL
LINGER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND FEED CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THAT
EAST FLOW. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING AND DEEPENING
MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MASS EAST COAST. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR DEW POINT...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND EASTERN PA WILL BE PUSHED NORTHEAST BY THIS FLOW. AS THE FRONT
LINES UP WITH THE UPPER FLOW...THE PUSH WILL DIMINISH AND SO THE
FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN. THIS WILL MAKE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS A CHALLENGE. MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD BRING THE COLD
FRONT TO THE HUDSON VALLEY 18Z AND TO THE CT VALLEY AROUND
00Z...THEN TO THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST BY 06Z. SO THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ROUGHLY NOON TO MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATER. WE HAVE AIMED HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS
PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES. THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE WOULD BE 2 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL...SUGGESTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING LIFTS NORTH
BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES.
EXPECT A CLEARING TREND SUNDAY BUT WITH WEST WINDS BRINGING ING
COOLER AIR. THE MIXED LAYER WILL REACH TO AT LEAST 850 MB AND
POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. THIS WOULD MIX TEMPS OF 1-3C TO THE
SURFACE AND SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...COULD BE
UPPER 50S IN THE HILLS. TEMPS ALOFT WARM ABOUT 4C MONDAY SO MAX SFC
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE A LITTLE WARMER...WE WENT WITH MID TO UPPER
60S. NIGHTTIME TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDEST SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODEL
RANGE OF UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 LOOKED REASONABLE.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES LOW WILL SWING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA
TUESDAY...MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THE FRONT THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SHORTLY BEFORE AND DURING PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
IN LOW CLOUDS...RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.  IFR
CIGS/MVFR VSBYS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST VERY SLOWLY AS RAIN COMES
TO AN END. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS MOST LOCATIONS BY THE END OF
THE DAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS ON
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
FOG IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MOVING WEST.
CIGS LOWER TO IFR WITH PATCHES OF LIFR IN FOG/DRIZZLE.

SATURDAY...IFR/LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE IN THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN SHOWERS AND
FOG DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE CT VALLEY AND WORCESTER
HILLS.  SHOWERS AND FOG MOVE ACROSS RI/EASTERN MASS/MERRIMACK VALLEY
NH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS WITH 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT 2000 FEET. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME LOW
LEVEL TURBULENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT WEST AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. EXPECT CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR WITH PATCHES OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 FOOT RANGE ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOVE IN ON EAST WINDS AND REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT POOR VSBYS IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE. DIMINISHING 5 TO 8 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER AND NORTHEAST-
EXPOSED WATERS MAY REQUIRE A CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS DURING THE MORNING IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS PICK
UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AND AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
WIND SHIFT. WEST WINDS WILL THEN BRING DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT.  SOUTH
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY REACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALSO REACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS
5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AND THEN
SHIFTS TOWARD SEA MONDAY. WEST WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS
AND SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY STILL
BE NEEDED.  CONDITIONS GET QUIETER MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233-
     234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 020749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY WITH
A DRYING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS AT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BANDS OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
FROM LAST EVENING.  MOST AREAS ARE RECEIVING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ON THE OUTER CAPE.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CURRENTLY DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE BEST MOISTURE
AND CONVECTION IS WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  GIVEN THIS AND THE
EXPECTED TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD...HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.  TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN FELL YESTERDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECTING ANOTHER HALF
AN INCH AT MOST THROUGH TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT A GENERAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE
DAY.  MOST OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH CLEARING BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST.  GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.  GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHILLY FEELING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...CLEARING CONTINUES AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...HIGH PRESSURE...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE QUIET BETWEEN
TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS.  THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST
OF NANTUCKET AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE
QUIET...SOMEWHAT MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... TROUGH MIGRATING TO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND
BECOMES A CLOSED LOW AND SITS IN THAT POSITION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW...ONE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND THE SECOND TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LOW THEN SLOWLY MIGRATES NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
HUDSON BAY MIDWEEK. THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN USA THEN BECOMES
ZONAL THURSDAY.

CONTOUR HEIGHTS WITHIN THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...SUGGESTING COLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CORE. BUT THAT WILL
BE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HERE IN NEW ENGLAND HEIGHTS INITIALLY DROP
BEHIND THE FIRST SHORTWAVE EARLY SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING COLDER
AIR TO NEW ENGLAND. BUT THE LOW REMAINS TO OUR WEST WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC. HEIGHTS REBUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH AN EAST FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WHICH DEPARTED NEW ENGLAND WILL
LINGER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND FEED CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THAT
EAST FLOW. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING AND DEEPENING
MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MASS EAST COAST. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR DEW POINT...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND EASTERN PA WILL BE PUSHED NORTHEAST BY THIS FLOW. AS THE FRONT
LINES UP WITH THE UPPER FLOW...THE PUSH WILL DIMINISH AND SO THE
FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN. THIS WILL MAKE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS A CHALLENGE. MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD BRING THE COLD
FRONT TO THE HUDSON VALLEY 18Z AND TO THE CT VALLEY AROUND
00Z...THEN TO THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST BY 06Z. SO THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ROUGHLY NOON TO MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATER. WE HAVE AIMED HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS
PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES. THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE WOULD BE 2 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL...SUGGESTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING LIFTS NORTH
BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES.
EXPECT A CLEARING TREND SUNDAY BUT WITH WEST WINDS BRINGING ING
COOLER AIR. THE MIXED LAYER WILL REACH TO AT LEAST 850 MB AND
POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. THIS WOULD MIX TEMPS OF 1-3C TO THE
SURFACE AND SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...COULD BE
UPPER 50S IN THE HILLS. TEMPS ALOFT WARM ABOUT 4C MONDAY SO MAX SFC
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE A LITTLE WARMER...WE WENT WITH MID TO UPPER
60S. NIGHTTIME TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDEST SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODEL
RANGE OF UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 LOOKED REASONABLE.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES LOW WILL SWING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA
TUESDAY...MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THE FRONT THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SHORTLY BEFORE AND DURING PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
IN LOW CLOUDS...RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.  IFR
CIGS/MVFR VSBYS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST VERY SLOWLY AS RAIN COMES
TO AN END. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS MOST LOCATIONS BY THE END OF
THE DAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS ON
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
FOG IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MOVING WEST.
CIGS LOWER TO IFR WITH PATCHES OF LIFR IN FOG/DRIZZLE.

SATURDAY...IFR/LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE IN THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN SHOWERS AND
FOG DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE CT VALLEY AND WORCESTER
HILLS.  SHOWERS AND FOG MOVE ACROSS RI/EASTERN MASS/MERRIMACK VALLEY
NH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS WITH 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT 2000 FEET. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME LOW
LEVEL TURBULENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT WEST AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. EXPECT CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR WITH PATCHES OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 FOOT RANGE ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOVE IN ON EAST WINDS AND REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT POOR VSBYS IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE. DIMINISHING 5 TO 8 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER AND NORTHEAST-
EXPOSED WATERS MAY REQUIRE A CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS DURING THE MORNING IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS PICK
UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AND AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
WIND SHIFT. WEST WINDS WILL THEN BRING DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT.  SOUTH
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY REACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALSO REACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS
5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AND THEN
SHIFTS TOWARD SEA MONDAY. WEST WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS
AND SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY STILL
BE NEEDED.  CONDITIONS GET QUIETER MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233-
     234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 020749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY WITH
A DRYING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS AT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BANDS OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
FROM LAST EVENING.  MOST AREAS ARE RECEIVING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ON THE OUTER CAPE.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CURRENTLY DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE BEST MOISTURE
AND CONVECTION IS WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  GIVEN THIS AND THE
EXPECTED TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD...HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.  TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN FELL YESTERDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECTING ANOTHER HALF
AN INCH AT MOST THROUGH TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT A GENERAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE
DAY.  MOST OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH CLEARING BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST.  GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.  GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHILLY FEELING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...CLEARING CONTINUES AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...HIGH PRESSURE...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE QUIET BETWEEN
TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS.  THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST
OF NANTUCKET AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE
QUIET...SOMEWHAT MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... TROUGH MIGRATING TO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND
BECOMES A CLOSED LOW AND SITS IN THAT POSITION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW...ONE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND THE SECOND TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LOW THEN SLOWLY MIGRATES NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
HUDSON BAY MIDWEEK. THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN USA THEN BECOMES
ZONAL THURSDAY.

CONTOUR HEIGHTS WITHIN THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...SUGGESTING COLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CORE. BUT THAT WILL
BE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HERE IN NEW ENGLAND HEIGHTS INITIALLY DROP
BEHIND THE FIRST SHORTWAVE EARLY SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING COLDER
AIR TO NEW ENGLAND. BUT THE LOW REMAINS TO OUR WEST WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC. HEIGHTS REBUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH AN EAST FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WHICH DEPARTED NEW ENGLAND WILL
LINGER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND FEED CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THAT
EAST FLOW. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING AND DEEPENING
MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MASS EAST COAST. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR DEW POINT...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND EASTERN PA WILL BE PUSHED NORTHEAST BY THIS FLOW. AS THE FRONT
LINES UP WITH THE UPPER FLOW...THE PUSH WILL DIMINISH AND SO THE
FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN. THIS WILL MAKE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS A CHALLENGE. MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD BRING THE COLD
FRONT TO THE HUDSON VALLEY 18Z AND TO THE CT VALLEY AROUND
00Z...THEN TO THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST BY 06Z. SO THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ROUGHLY NOON TO MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATER. WE HAVE AIMED HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS
PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES. THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE WOULD BE 2 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL...SUGGESTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING LIFTS NORTH
BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES.
EXPECT A CLEARING TREND SUNDAY BUT WITH WEST WINDS BRINGING ING
COOLER AIR. THE MIXED LAYER WILL REACH TO AT LEAST 850 MB AND
POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. THIS WOULD MIX TEMPS OF 1-3C TO THE
SURFACE AND SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...COULD BE
UPPER 50S IN THE HILLS. TEMPS ALOFT WARM ABOUT 4C MONDAY SO MAX SFC
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE A LITTLE WARMER...WE WENT WITH MID TO UPPER
60S. NIGHTTIME TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDEST SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODEL
RANGE OF UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 LOOKED REASONABLE.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES LOW WILL SWING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA
TUESDAY...MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THE FRONT THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SHORTLY BEFORE AND DURING PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
IN LOW CLOUDS...RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.  IFR
CIGS/MVFR VSBYS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST VERY SLOWLY AS RAIN COMES
TO AN END. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS MOST LOCATIONS BY THE END OF
THE DAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS ON
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
FOG IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MOVING WEST.
CIGS LOWER TO IFR WITH PATCHES OF LIFR IN FOG/DRIZZLE.

SATURDAY...IFR/LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE IN THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN SHOWERS AND
FOG DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE CT VALLEY AND WORCESTER
HILLS.  SHOWERS AND FOG MOVE ACROSS RI/EASTERN MASS/MERRIMACK VALLEY
NH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS WITH 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT 2000 FEET. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME LOW
LEVEL TURBULENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT WEST AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. EXPECT CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR WITH PATCHES OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 FOOT RANGE ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOVE IN ON EAST WINDS AND REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT POOR VSBYS IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE. DIMINISHING 5 TO 8 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER AND NORTHEAST-
EXPOSED WATERS MAY REQUIRE A CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS DURING THE MORNING IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS PICK
UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AND AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
WIND SHIFT. WEST WINDS WILL THEN BRING DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT.  SOUTH
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY REACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALSO REACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS
5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AND THEN
SHIFTS TOWARD SEA MONDAY. WEST WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS
AND SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY STILL
BE NEEDED.  CONDITIONS GET QUIETER MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233-
     234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 020749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY WITH
A DRYING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS AT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BANDS OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
FROM LAST EVENING.  MOST AREAS ARE RECEIVING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ON THE OUTER CAPE.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CURRENTLY DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE BEST MOISTURE
AND CONVECTION IS WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  GIVEN THIS AND THE
EXPECTED TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD...HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.  TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN FELL YESTERDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECTING ANOTHER HALF
AN INCH AT MOST THROUGH TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT A GENERAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE
DAY.  MOST OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH CLEARING BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST.  GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.  GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHILLY FEELING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...CLEARING CONTINUES AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...HIGH PRESSURE...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE QUIET BETWEEN
TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS.  THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST
OF NANTUCKET AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE
QUIET...SOMEWHAT MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... TROUGH MIGRATING TO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND
BECOMES A CLOSED LOW AND SITS IN THAT POSITION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW...ONE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND THE SECOND TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LOW THEN SLOWLY MIGRATES NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
HUDSON BAY MIDWEEK. THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN USA THEN BECOMES
ZONAL THURSDAY.

CONTOUR HEIGHTS WITHIN THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...SUGGESTING COLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CORE. BUT THAT WILL
BE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HERE IN NEW ENGLAND HEIGHTS INITIALLY DROP
BEHIND THE FIRST SHORTWAVE EARLY SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING COLDER
AIR TO NEW ENGLAND. BUT THE LOW REMAINS TO OUR WEST WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC. HEIGHTS REBUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH AN EAST FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WHICH DEPARTED NEW ENGLAND WILL
LINGER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND FEED CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THAT
EAST FLOW. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING AND DEEPENING
MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MASS EAST COAST. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR DEW POINT...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND EASTERN PA WILL BE PUSHED NORTHEAST BY THIS FLOW. AS THE FRONT
LINES UP WITH THE UPPER FLOW...THE PUSH WILL DIMINISH AND SO THE
FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN. THIS WILL MAKE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS A CHALLENGE. MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD BRING THE COLD
FRONT TO THE HUDSON VALLEY 18Z AND TO THE CT VALLEY AROUND
00Z...THEN TO THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST BY 06Z. SO THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ROUGHLY NOON TO MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATER. WE HAVE AIMED HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS
PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES. THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE WOULD BE 2 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL...SUGGESTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING LIFTS NORTH
BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES.
EXPECT A CLEARING TREND SUNDAY BUT WITH WEST WINDS BRINGING ING
COOLER AIR. THE MIXED LAYER WILL REACH TO AT LEAST 850 MB AND
POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. THIS WOULD MIX TEMPS OF 1-3C TO THE
SURFACE AND SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...COULD BE
UPPER 50S IN THE HILLS. TEMPS ALOFT WARM ABOUT 4C MONDAY SO MAX SFC
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE A LITTLE WARMER...WE WENT WITH MID TO UPPER
60S. NIGHTTIME TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDEST SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODEL
RANGE OF UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 LOOKED REASONABLE.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES LOW WILL SWING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA
TUESDAY...MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THE FRONT THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SHORTLY BEFORE AND DURING PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
IN LOW CLOUDS...RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.  IFR
CIGS/MVFR VSBYS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST VERY SLOWLY AS RAIN COMES
TO AN END. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS MOST LOCATIONS BY THE END OF
THE DAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS ON
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
FOG IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MOVING WEST.
CIGS LOWER TO IFR WITH PATCHES OF LIFR IN FOG/DRIZZLE.

SATURDAY...IFR/LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE IN THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN SHOWERS AND
FOG DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE CT VALLEY AND WORCESTER
HILLS.  SHOWERS AND FOG MOVE ACROSS RI/EASTERN MASS/MERRIMACK VALLEY
NH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS WITH 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT 2000 FEET. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME LOW
LEVEL TURBULENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT WEST AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. EXPECT CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR WITH PATCHES OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 FOOT RANGE ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOVE IN ON EAST WINDS AND REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT POOR VSBYS IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE. DIMINISHING 5 TO 8 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER AND NORTHEAST-
EXPOSED WATERS MAY REQUIRE A CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS DURING THE MORNING IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS PICK
UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AND AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
WIND SHIFT. WEST WINDS WILL THEN BRING DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT.  SOUTH
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY REACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALSO REACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS
5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AND THEN
SHIFTS TOWARD SEA MONDAY. WEST WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS
AND SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY STILL
BE NEEDED.  CONDITIONS GET QUIETER MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233-
     234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KALY 020521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY
BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS
RESULTING IN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE EAST. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH DECREASING POPS FURTHER WEST. THE
RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE HAVE MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS THE
CAPITAL REGION...BUT THE THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO ONLY NEW
ENGLAND FOR LATER IN THE NIGHT...AS THE STORM SLOWLY STARTS TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM AND BE THE MOST DENSE IS AREAS WHERE
THE CLOUD COVER IS LEAST NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
DUE TO MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM EASTERN CANADA...NOT ONLY AT THE
SURFACE BUT ALOFT. EVEN SO...SCOURING OUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE
CHALLENGE GIVEN AN RATHER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LOWERING
SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG MUCH OF THE DAY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BASED
ON THE SLOW DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS...THEREBY LEANING WITH THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS WILL STILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 65-70...PRETTY
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...BY THIS TIME...WE ASSUME MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE
SCOURED OUT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IT WILL BE CALM NIGHT AND PRESUMABLY MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS
WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR FOG...PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AND EVEN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS HOW
WE WILL PLAY IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST AND GRIDS. THE SURFACE WIND (AND
WIND ALOFT) LOOKED TOO LIGHT FOR THE FORMATION OF STRATUS...BUT THAT
IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ONCE THE FOG FORMS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SLOW DOWN...OR EVEN
GO THE OTHER WAY BY A POINT OR TWO...DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE
DUE TO CONDENSATION. WE FIGURE ON LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER PLACES.

FRIDAY LOOKS NICE ONCE WE LOOSE THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS...WHICH
IN SOME VALLEYS...MIGHT NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MIDDAY. ONCE AGAIN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY BASED ON THE LATEST MOS TRENDS. BY
AFTERNOON...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE 5-15 MPH WILL HELP THE CAUSE
TO MIX THE COLUMN A LITTLE BETTER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WE ARE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 70...HIGHER IN THE VALLEYS...A TAD LOWER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD
MITIGATE THE FORMATION OF FOG...AT LEAST IN MOST PLACES. FOR
NOW...NO MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE REGARDING LOW TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY RIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. WE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO 50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...MILDEST IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG DEVELOPING MID
LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALSO FEATURE A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM IT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND
WHIP THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SATURDAY.
UNLIKE MANY DISTURBANCES OF LATE...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (PUSHING PWATS TO OVER 1.5
INCHES)...AND STRONG FORCING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THESE FACTORS WILL SHOULD ALL ADD UP TO A
SOAKING RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. WE DID SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF
SHOWERS A LITTLE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT (LOWERING POPS A LITTLE) BUT
SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET...ESPECIALLY MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS A LINE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER MOVES ON THROUGH. THE WIND FIELD DOES NOT LOOK
ESPECIALLY STRONG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 25-30 MPH JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF WE WERE TO
REAP ANY CONVECTION. WHILE THIS WIND WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY
DAMAGE...IT WOULD BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH THE RAIN...TO PULL
MANY LEAVES OFF THE TREES.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
HELD TO THE 60S...DESPITE WARM H850 TEMPERATURES UP TO +13C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR ENTIRE REGION WILL BE EXPERIENCING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START
BELOW AVERAGE AS WE GO THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND BUT
WILL MODIFY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AS WE GO INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION AS A NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE APEX INTO THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY EVENING. LATEST 01/12Z GUIDANCE AND
PROBABILISTIC MODELS DO HAVE THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AT DIFFERENT TIMES...HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP PRODUCE SUFFICIENT ASCENT THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED QPF TOTALS. THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LATEST 12Z DATA
SHOWING T850 AND T925 TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 1C AND 4C. THIS
WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A BROAD AREA OF INFLUENCE REACHING THE LOWER 48
WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THIS BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
FROM A WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION USHERING IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
STEER WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES THROUGH THE REGION WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN IMPULSE INTENSITIES AND
TIMING EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z MODELS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY WELL INTO THE 60S AS WE GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL LOW EXITING THE REGION HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT KALB AND KPSF WITH CHANCES DECREASING
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

CLOUDS HEIGHTS WILL BE JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET AT KGFL BUT TRENDING
DOWNWARD TO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND VFR PERIODICALLY AT KALB THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z. CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT KPOU AND KPSF SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z-22Z. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY RAIN BEING VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER
10Z...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...WHICH IS NOT
TOO FAR WEST OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY. SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KPSF AND KPOU...KPSF WITH POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN AND KPOU WITH SOME POSSIBLE PARTIAL CLEARING. IT SHOULD
BE MENTIONED THAT CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR SUGGEST ANY
CLEARING WILL TAKE QUITE SOME TIME TO SPREAD EAST...EVEN THOUGH IT
IS INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND CENTRAL/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

ONCE THE SYSTEM EXITS...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET AFTER
18Z-22Z AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPSF FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.
GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH A LIGHT N-NE FLOW AT LESS
THAN 6 KT SHIFTING TO E-SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THURSDAY...TRENDING
BACK TO VARIABLE/CALM DURING THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL TODAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WAS SOME AREAS IN VERMONT/THE BERKSHIRES AND CONNECTICUT
RECEIVED AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT AND DROP ONLY TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE
KICKING UP TO 10-15 MPH AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO BETWEEN 75-90 PERSISTENT. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE MIGHT
PERSIST...LIMITING THE FORMATION OF DEW.

A SOAKING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR BETTER.

COOLER...MAINLY DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY
DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL.

IT WILL DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 020521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY
BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS
RESULTING IN LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE EAST. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH DECREASING POPS FURTHER WEST. THE
RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE HAVE MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS THE
CAPITAL REGION...BUT THE THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO ONLY NEW
ENGLAND FOR LATER IN THE NIGHT...AS THE STORM SLOWLY STARTS TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM AND BE THE MOST DENSE IS AREAS WHERE
THE CLOUD COVER IS LEAST NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
DUE TO MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM EASTERN CANADA...NOT ONLY AT THE
SURFACE BUT ALOFT. EVEN SO...SCOURING OUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE
CHALLENGE GIVEN AN RATHER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LOWERING
SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG MUCH OF THE DAY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BASED
ON THE SLOW DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS...THEREBY LEANING WITH THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS WILL STILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 65-70...PRETTY
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...BY THIS TIME...WE ASSUME MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE
SCOURED OUT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IT WILL BE CALM NIGHT AND PRESUMABLY MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS
WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR FOG...PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AND EVEN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS HOW
WE WILL PLAY IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST AND GRIDS. THE SURFACE WIND (AND
WIND ALOFT) LOOKED TOO LIGHT FOR THE FORMATION OF STRATUS...BUT THAT
IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ONCE THE FOG FORMS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SLOW DOWN...OR EVEN
GO THE OTHER WAY BY A POINT OR TWO...DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE
DUE TO CONDENSATION. WE FIGURE ON LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER PLACES.

FRIDAY LOOKS NICE ONCE WE LOOSE THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS...WHICH
IN SOME VALLEYS...MIGHT NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MIDDAY. ONCE AGAIN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY BASED ON THE LATEST MOS TRENDS. BY
AFTERNOON...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE 5-15 MPH WILL HELP THE CAUSE
TO MIX THE COLUMN A LITTLE BETTER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WE ARE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 70...HIGHER IN THE VALLEYS...A TAD LOWER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD
MITIGATE THE FORMATION OF FOG...AT LEAST IN MOST PLACES. FOR
NOW...NO MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE REGARDING LOW TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY RIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. WE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO 50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...MILDEST IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG DEVELOPING MID
LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALSO FEATURE A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM IT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND
WHIP THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SATURDAY.
UNLIKE MANY DISTURBANCES OF LATE...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (PUSHING PWATS TO OVER 1.5
INCHES)...AND STRONG FORCING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THESE FACTORS WILL SHOULD ALL ADD UP TO A
SOAKING RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. WE DID SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF
SHOWERS A LITTLE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT (LOWERING POPS A LITTLE) BUT
SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET...ESPECIALLY MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS A LINE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER MOVES ON THROUGH. THE WIND FIELD DOES NOT LOOK
ESPECIALLY STRONG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 25-30 MPH JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF WE WERE TO
REAP ANY CONVECTION. WHILE THIS WIND WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY
DAMAGE...IT WOULD BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH THE RAIN...TO PULL
MANY LEAVES OFF THE TREES.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
HELD TO THE 60S...DESPITE WARM H850 TEMPERATURES UP TO +13C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR ENTIRE REGION WILL BE EXPERIENCING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START
BELOW AVERAGE AS WE GO THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND BUT
WILL MODIFY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AS WE GO INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION AS A NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE APEX INTO THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY EVENING. LATEST 01/12Z GUIDANCE AND
PROBABILISTIC MODELS DO HAVE THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AT DIFFERENT TIMES...HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP PRODUCE SUFFICIENT ASCENT THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED QPF TOTALS. THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LATEST 12Z DATA
SHOWING T850 AND T925 TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 1C AND 4C. THIS
WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A BROAD AREA OF INFLUENCE REACHING THE LOWER 48
WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THIS BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
FROM A WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION USHERING IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
STEER WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES THROUGH THE REGION WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN IMPULSE INTENSITIES AND
TIMING EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z MODELS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY WELL INTO THE 60S AS WE GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL LOW EXITING THE REGION HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT KALB AND KPSF WITH CHANCES DECREASING
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

CLOUDS HEIGHTS WILL BE JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET AT KGFL BUT TRENDING
DOWNWARD TO MVFR BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AND REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND VFR PERIODICALLY AT KALB THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z. CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT KPOU AND KPSF SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 20Z-22Z. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY VFR WITH ANY RAIN BEING VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER
10Z...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...WHICH IS NOT
TOO FAR WEST OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY. SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KPSF AND KPOU...KPSF WITH POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN AND KPOU WITH SOME POSSIBLE PARTIAL CLEARING. IT SHOULD
BE MENTIONED THAT CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND RADAR SUGGEST ANY
CLEARING WILL TAKE QUITE SOME TIME TO SPREAD EAST...EVEN THOUGH IT
IS INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND CENTRAL/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

ONCE THE SYSTEM EXITS...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET AFTER
18Z-22Z AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KPSF FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.
GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH A LIGHT N-NE FLOW AT LESS
THAN 6 KT SHIFTING TO E-SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THURSDAY...TRENDING
BACK TO VARIABLE/CALM DURING THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL TODAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WAS SOME AREAS IN VERMONT/THE BERKSHIRES AND CONNECTICUT
RECEIVED AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT AND DROP ONLY TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE
KICKING UP TO 10-15 MPH AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO BETWEEN 75-90 PERSISTENT. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE MIGHT
PERSIST...LIMITING THE FORMATION OF DEW.

A SOAKING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR BETTER.

COOLER...MAINLY DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY
DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL.

IT WILL DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 020253
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1053 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE OCCURRING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY EAST OF OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. THIS IS THE RESULT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT SURFACE
PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...IN COMBINATION WITH A LOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVING OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL GIVE
WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE REGION IN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION.
THIS IS RESULTING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND  PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
EAST. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY (SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE).

LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM AND BE THE MOST DENSE IS AREAS WHERE
THE CLOUD COVER IS LEAST NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
DUE TO MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM EASTERN CANADA...NOT ONLY AT THE
SURFACE BUT ALOFT. EVEN SO...SCOURING OUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE
CHALLENGE GIVEN AN RATHER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LOWERING
SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG MUCH OF THE DAY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BASED
ON THE SLOW DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS...THEREBY LEANING WITH THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS WILL STILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 65-70...PRETTY
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...BY THIS TIME...WE ASSUME MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE
SCOURED OUT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IT WILL BE CALM NIGHT AND PRESUMABLY MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS
WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR FOG...PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AND EVEN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS HOW
WE WILL PLAY IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST AND GRIDS. THE SURFACE WIND (AND
WIND ALOFT) LOOKED TOO LIGHT FOR THE FORMATION OF STRATUS...BUT THAT
IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ONCE THE FOG FORMS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SLOW DOWN...OR EVEN
GO THE OTHER WAY BY A POINT OR TWO...DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE
DUE TO CONDENSATION. WE FIGURE ON LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER PLACES.

FRIDAY LOOKS NICE ONCE WE LOOSE THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS...WHICH
IN SOME VALLEYS...MIGHT NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MIDDAY. ONCE AGAIN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY BASED ON THE LATEST MOS TRENDS. BY
AFTERNOON...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE 5-15 MPH WILL HELP THE CAUSE
TO MIX THE COLUMN A LITTLE BETTER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WE ARE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 70...HIGHER IN THE VALLEYS...A TAD LOWER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD
MITIGATE THE FORMATION OF FOG...AT LEAST IN MOST PLACES. FOR
NOW...NO MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE REGARDING LOW TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY RIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. WE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO 50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...MILDEST IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG DEVELOPING MID
LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALSO FEATURE A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM IT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND
WHIP THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SATURDAY.
UNLIKE MANY DISTURBANCES OF LATE...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (PUSHING PWATS TO OVER 1.5
INCHES)...AND STRONG FORCING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THESE FACTORS WILL SHOULD ALL ADD UP TO A
SOAKING RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. WE DID SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF
SHOWERS A LITTLE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT (LOWERING POPS A LITTLE) BUT
SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET...ESPECIALLY MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS A LINE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER MOVES ON THROUGH. THE WIND FIELD DOES NOT LOOK
ESPECIALLY STRONG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 25-30 MPH JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF WE WERE TO
REAP ANY CONVECTION. WHILE THIS WIND WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY
DAMAGE...IT WOULD BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH THE RAIN...TO PULL
MANY LEAVES OFF THE TREES.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
HELD TO THE 60S...DESPITE WARM H850 TEMPERATURES UP TO +13C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR ENTIRE REGION WILL BE EXPERIENCING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START
BELOW AVERAGE AS WE GO THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND BUT
WILL MODIFY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AS WE GO INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION AS A NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE APEX INTO THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY EVENING. LATEST 01/12Z GUIDANCE AND
PROBABILISTIC MODELS DO HAVE THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AT DIFFERENT TIMES...HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP PRODUCE SUFFICIENT ASCENT THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED QPF TOTALS. THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LATEST 12Z DATA
SHOWING T850 AND T925 TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 1C AND 4C. THIS
WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A BROAD AREA OF INFLUENCE REACHING THE LOWER 48
WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THIS BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
FROM A WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION USHERING IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
STEER WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES THROUGH THE REGION WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN IMPULSE INTENSITIES AND
TIMING EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z MODELS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY WELL INTO THE 60S AS WE GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CHANCES DECREASING LATE.

CLOUDS HEIGHTS WILL LOWER TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING...WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KPSF FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT. GRADUALLY
IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT N-NE FLOW SHIFTING TO
E-SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL TODAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WAS SOME AREAS IN VERMONT/THE BERKSHIRES AND CONNECTICUT
RECEIVED AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT AND DROP ONLY TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE
KICKING UP TO 10-15 MPH AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO BETWEEN 75-90 PERSISTENT. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE MIGHT
PERSIST...LIMITING THE FORMATION OF DEW.

A SOAKING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR BETTER.

COOLER...MAINLY DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY
DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL.

IT WILL DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 020253
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1053 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE OCCURRING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY EAST OF OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. THIS IS THE RESULT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT SURFACE
PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...IN COMBINATION WITH A LOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVING OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL GIVE
WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE REGION IN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION.
THIS IS RESULTING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND  PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
EAST. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY (SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE).

LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM AND BE THE MOST DENSE IS AREAS WHERE
THE CLOUD COVER IS LEAST NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
DUE TO MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM EASTERN CANADA...NOT ONLY AT THE
SURFACE BUT ALOFT. EVEN SO...SCOURING OUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE
CHALLENGE GIVEN AN RATHER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LOWERING
SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG MUCH OF THE DAY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BASED
ON THE SLOW DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS...THEREBY LEANING WITH THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS WILL STILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 65-70...PRETTY
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...BY THIS TIME...WE ASSUME MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE
SCOURED OUT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IT WILL BE CALM NIGHT AND PRESUMABLY MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS
WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR FOG...PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AND EVEN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS HOW
WE WILL PLAY IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST AND GRIDS. THE SURFACE WIND (AND
WIND ALOFT) LOOKED TOO LIGHT FOR THE FORMATION OF STRATUS...BUT THAT
IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ONCE THE FOG FORMS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SLOW DOWN...OR EVEN
GO THE OTHER WAY BY A POINT OR TWO...DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE
DUE TO CONDENSATION. WE FIGURE ON LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER PLACES.

FRIDAY LOOKS NICE ONCE WE LOOSE THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS...WHICH
IN SOME VALLEYS...MIGHT NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MIDDAY. ONCE AGAIN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY BASED ON THE LATEST MOS TRENDS. BY
AFTERNOON...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE 5-15 MPH WILL HELP THE CAUSE
TO MIX THE COLUMN A LITTLE BETTER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WE ARE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 70...HIGHER IN THE VALLEYS...A TAD LOWER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD
MITIGATE THE FORMATION OF FOG...AT LEAST IN MOST PLACES. FOR
NOW...NO MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE REGARDING LOW TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY RIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. WE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO 50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...MILDEST IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG DEVELOPING MID
LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALSO FEATURE A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM IT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND
WHIP THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SATURDAY.
UNLIKE MANY DISTURBANCES OF LATE...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (PUSHING PWATS TO OVER 1.5
INCHES)...AND STRONG FORCING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THESE FACTORS WILL SHOULD ALL ADD UP TO A
SOAKING RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. WE DID SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF
SHOWERS A LITTLE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT (LOWERING POPS A LITTLE) BUT
SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET...ESPECIALLY MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS A LINE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER MOVES ON THROUGH. THE WIND FIELD DOES NOT LOOK
ESPECIALLY STRONG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 25-30 MPH JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF WE WERE TO
REAP ANY CONVECTION. WHILE THIS WIND WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY
DAMAGE...IT WOULD BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH THE RAIN...TO PULL
MANY LEAVES OFF THE TREES.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
HELD TO THE 60S...DESPITE WARM H850 TEMPERATURES UP TO +13C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR ENTIRE REGION WILL BE EXPERIENCING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START
BELOW AVERAGE AS WE GO THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND BUT
WILL MODIFY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AS WE GO INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION AS A NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE APEX INTO THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY EVENING. LATEST 01/12Z GUIDANCE AND
PROBABILISTIC MODELS DO HAVE THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AT DIFFERENT TIMES...HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP PRODUCE SUFFICIENT ASCENT THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED QPF TOTALS. THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LATEST 12Z DATA
SHOWING T850 AND T925 TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 1C AND 4C. THIS
WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A BROAD AREA OF INFLUENCE REACHING THE LOWER 48
WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THIS BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
FROM A WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION USHERING IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
STEER WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES THROUGH THE REGION WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN IMPULSE INTENSITIES AND
TIMING EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z MODELS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY WELL INTO THE 60S AS WE GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CHANCES DECREASING LATE.

CLOUDS HEIGHTS WILL LOWER TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING...WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KPSF FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT. GRADUALLY
IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT N-NE FLOW SHIFTING TO
E-SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL TODAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WAS SOME AREAS IN VERMONT/THE BERKSHIRES AND CONNECTICUT
RECEIVED AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT AND DROP ONLY TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE
KICKING UP TO 10-15 MPH AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO BETWEEN 75-90 PERSISTENT. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE MIGHT
PERSIST...LIMITING THE FORMATION OF DEW.

A SOAKING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR BETTER.

COOLER...MAINLY DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY
DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL.

IT WILL DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KBOX 020159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COOL...WET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BRING DRY AIR BACK IN LATE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO ROTATE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE STAYING A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED BUT NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO STRAY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MADE A FEW MINOR EDITS TO TEMPERATURES TO BRING
THEM CLOSER IN LINE WITH CURRENT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

715 PM UPDATE...
BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS FAR SE
MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING. RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN WELL DEFINED TROWAL SIGNATURE ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOVEMENT OF THIS TROWAL
SIGNATURE SO CURRENT AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO EXPAND
WEST SO MAY SEE SOME WESTWARD EXPANSION TO THE RAIN AREA. WE
UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RAIN AXIS AND EXPECTED TRENDS BUT
ALSO LOWERED POPS IN WESTERN HALF SNE.

18Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON EXTREMELY HIGH QPF AS LOW
LEVEL JET NOT FORECAST TO BE AS ROBUST. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE
COD WHICH IS WHERE CURRENT RAIN AREA IS LOCATED. STILL EXPECT
2-4" RAINFALL ACROSS FAR SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 6" AS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER CAPE HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED UP TO 3" RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TOMORROW...
EARLY MORNING RAINS CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE
REGION AS SFC INVERTED TROF AND UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGIN SLOW SHIFT
OFFSHORE. DRIER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO WORK IN FROM THE W
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER GRADIENT FLOW REMAINS MAINLY N-NE.
THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY...THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY REMAIN AT LEAST INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE...SLOWLY...FROM W TO E
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUCH THAT SOME ACTUALLY MAY SEE A SUNSET. THE
E SHORES MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY
HOWEVER...AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER AND A MODEST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARRIVES TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE N.
NOTING ENOUGH DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND
THAT SOME MAY SEE SOME CI FILTERED STAR-LIGHT AND EVEN SOME
CLEARING SKIES. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN DWPTS ARE LIKELY TO
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AND TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO HEAD THIS WAY AS
WELL. THEREFORE...WITH SOME LEFTOVER GROUND MOISTURE...FOG IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS...AND MAY EVEN BE LOCALLY DENSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING
* DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY
* MODERATING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND GT LAKES LOW THIS WEEKEND AND TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE SAT AND SAT EVENING WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN...MOST OF
WHICH LOOKS TO FALL SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N
INTO CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TROF SETTING UP ACROSS THE
GT LAKES AND BROAD CYCLONIC SW FLOW INTO NEW ENG. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN TROF BUT
BUT IT APPEARS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

DAILIES...

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE COLUMN IS MOSTLY DRY WHICH SUPPORTS MOSUNNY SKIES...BUT
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACKING IN FROM THE EAST WHICH
MAY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO CAPE/ISLANDS AND INTO E MA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WEST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW ENG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND NE FLOW BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT. TEMPS FRI WILL BE IN THE
60S...COOLEST E MA COAST AND MILDEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING ACROSS SNE...REACHING CT VALLEY BY 00Z AND OFF THE COAST
BY 06Z. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
PWAT PLUME 1.5"+ WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SNE.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND IT/S POSSIBLE BULK OF RAIN COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SAT
FOR E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS. THERE IS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE MODELS SO CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWER AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...BUT
SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT DURATION OF RAINFALL WITH
RAIN EXITING THE REGION 00-06Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY WITH MODEST WESTERLY WINDS
AND MOSUNNY SKIES...THEN BREEZY AND MILDER MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW. A BIT MORE CLOUDS POSSIBLE
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST ZONES AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUE AS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN SOME DRYING ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY MIX OF IFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. BETWEEN
RAINFALL...CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS.
ALSO...THERE IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN A BRIEF
THUNDERSHOWER FOR RI AND SE MA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE N-NE WITH GUSTS 25-30
KT POSSIBLE AT NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END WITH A SLOW LIFT FROM IFR/MVFR
TO VFR FROM W TO E. SOME E LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND MAY WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE FULLY BREAKING
OUT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY BACK IN
FROM THE OCEAN INTO E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS FRI AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CIGS LOWERING TO IFR FRI NIGHT AND EXPANDING WEST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED.
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SNE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTH
WINDS SAT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ...HIGH CONFIDENCE

INCREASING NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...SUCH THAT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
NOT EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION A BRIEF WIND GUST APPROACHES GALE
FORCE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF BY THEN...SWELLS
APPROACHING 9 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND THESE WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO FALL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRI...EXPECT DIMINISHING NE WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. BUT HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
OVER OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY
NEARSHORE WATERS AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.  CURRENT
FORECAST WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INCREASED. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING AND SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST SAT NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING VSBYS.

SUNDAY...WEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL PERSIST.

MONDAY...SW WINDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THE
ISSUE AT HAND IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH FINAL STORM TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES. THIS MAY LEAD TO
URBAN/STREET AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN THE WATCH
AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS
OF RAINFALL SETS UP...AS IT MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF IT BEING FURTHER W...AND THAT HEAVY RAIN IS
CURRENTLY FALLING IN THIS AREA...FEEL THE WATCH IS WARRANTED. MAY
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION FURTHER W...FOR THE
URBAN AREAS OF RI GIVEN THAT SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD PROGRESSION IS
EVIDENT IN SOME GUIDANCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ017>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232-235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-231-
     233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 020159
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COOL...WET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BRING DRY AIR BACK IN LATE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO ROTATE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE STAYING A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED BUT NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO STRAY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MADE A FEW MINOR EDITS TO TEMPERATURES TO BRING
THEM CLOSER IN LINE WITH CURRENT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

715 PM UPDATE...
BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS FAR SE
MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING. RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN WELL DEFINED TROWAL SIGNATURE ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOVEMENT OF THIS TROWAL
SIGNATURE SO CURRENT AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO EXPAND
WEST SO MAY SEE SOME WESTWARD EXPANSION TO THE RAIN AREA. WE
UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RAIN AXIS AND EXPECTED TRENDS BUT
ALSO LOWERED POPS IN WESTERN HALF SNE.

18Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON EXTREMELY HIGH QPF AS LOW
LEVEL JET NOT FORECAST TO BE AS ROBUST. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE
COD WHICH IS WHERE CURRENT RAIN AREA IS LOCATED. STILL EXPECT
2-4" RAINFALL ACROSS FAR SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 6" AS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER CAPE HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED UP TO 3" RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TOMORROW...
EARLY MORNING RAINS CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE
REGION AS SFC INVERTED TROF AND UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGIN SLOW SHIFT
OFFSHORE. DRIER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO WORK IN FROM THE W
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER GRADIENT FLOW REMAINS MAINLY N-NE.
THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY...THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY REMAIN AT LEAST INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE...SLOWLY...FROM W TO E
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUCH THAT SOME ACTUALLY MAY SEE A SUNSET. THE
E SHORES MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY
HOWEVER...AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER AND A MODEST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARRIVES TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE N.
NOTING ENOUGH DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND
THAT SOME MAY SEE SOME CI FILTERED STAR-LIGHT AND EVEN SOME
CLEARING SKIES. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN DWPTS ARE LIKELY TO
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AND TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO HEAD THIS WAY AS
WELL. THEREFORE...WITH SOME LEFTOVER GROUND MOISTURE...FOG IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS...AND MAY EVEN BE LOCALLY DENSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING
* DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY
* MODERATING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND GT LAKES LOW THIS WEEKEND AND TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE SAT AND SAT EVENING WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN...MOST OF
WHICH LOOKS TO FALL SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N
INTO CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TROF SETTING UP ACROSS THE
GT LAKES AND BROAD CYCLONIC SW FLOW INTO NEW ENG. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN TROF BUT
BUT IT APPEARS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

DAILIES...

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE COLUMN IS MOSTLY DRY WHICH SUPPORTS MOSUNNY SKIES...BUT
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACKING IN FROM THE EAST WHICH
MAY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO CAPE/ISLANDS AND INTO E MA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WEST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW ENG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND NE FLOW BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT. TEMPS FRI WILL BE IN THE
60S...COOLEST E MA COAST AND MILDEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING ACROSS SNE...REACHING CT VALLEY BY 00Z AND OFF THE COAST
BY 06Z. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
PWAT PLUME 1.5"+ WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SNE.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND IT/S POSSIBLE BULK OF RAIN COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SAT
FOR E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS. THERE IS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE MODELS SO CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWER AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...BUT
SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT DURATION OF RAINFALL WITH
RAIN EXITING THE REGION 00-06Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY WITH MODEST WESTERLY WINDS
AND MOSUNNY SKIES...THEN BREEZY AND MILDER MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW. A BIT MORE CLOUDS POSSIBLE
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST ZONES AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUE AS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN SOME DRYING ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY MIX OF IFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. BETWEEN
RAINFALL...CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS.
ALSO...THERE IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN A BRIEF
THUNDERSHOWER FOR RI AND SE MA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE N-NE WITH GUSTS 25-30
KT POSSIBLE AT NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END WITH A SLOW LIFT FROM IFR/MVFR
TO VFR FROM W TO E. SOME E LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND MAY WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE FULLY BREAKING
OUT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY BACK IN
FROM THE OCEAN INTO E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS FRI AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CIGS LOWERING TO IFR FRI NIGHT AND EXPANDING WEST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED.
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SNE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTH
WINDS SAT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ...HIGH CONFIDENCE

INCREASING NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...SUCH THAT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
NOT EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION A BRIEF WIND GUST APPROACHES GALE
FORCE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF BY THEN...SWELLS
APPROACHING 9 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND THESE WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO FALL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRI...EXPECT DIMINISHING NE WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. BUT HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
OVER OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY
NEARSHORE WATERS AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.  CURRENT
FORECAST WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INCREASED. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING AND SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST SAT NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING VSBYS.

SUNDAY...WEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL PERSIST.

MONDAY...SW WINDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THE
ISSUE AT HAND IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH FINAL STORM TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES. THIS MAY LEAD TO
URBAN/STREET AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN THE WATCH
AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS
OF RAINFALL SETS UP...AS IT MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF IT BEING FURTHER W...AND THAT HEAVY RAIN IS
CURRENTLY FALLING IN THIS AREA...FEEL THE WATCH IS WARRANTED. MAY
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION FURTHER W...FOR THE
URBAN AREAS OF RI GIVEN THAT SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD PROGRESSION IS
EVIDENT IN SOME GUIDANCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ017>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232-235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-231-
     233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KALY 012346
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
746 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE OCCURRING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY EAST OF OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. THIS IS THE RESULT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT SURFACE
PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...IN COMBINATION WITH A LOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVING OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL GIVE
WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE REGION IN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION.
THIS IS RESULTING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND  PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
EAST. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CHANCES DECREASING LATE.

LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM AND BE THE MOST DENSE IS
AREAS WHERE THE CLOUD COVER IS LEAST NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM EASTERN CANADA...NOT ONLY AT THE
SURFACE BUT ALOFT. EVEN SO...SCOURING OUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE
CHALLENGE GIVEN AN RATHER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LOWERING
SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG MUCH OF THE DAY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BASED
ON THE SLOW DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS...THEREBY LEANING WITH THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS WILL STILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 65-70...PRETTY
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...BY THIS TIME...WE ASSUME MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE
SCOURED OUT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IT WILL BE CALM NIGHT AND PRESUMABLY MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS
WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR FOG...PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AND EVEN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS HOW
WE WILL PLAY IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST AND GRIDS. THE SURFACE WIND (AND
WIND ALOFT) LOOKED TOO LIGHT FOR THE FORMATION OF STRATUS...BUT THAT
IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ONCE THE FOG FORMS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SLOW DOWN...OR EVEN
GO THE OTHER WAY BY A POINT OR TWO...DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE
DUE TO CONDENSATION. WE FIGURE ON LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER PLACES.

FRIDAY LOOKS NICE ONCE WE LOOSE THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS...WHICH
IN SOME VALLEYS...MIGHT NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MIDDAY. ONCE AGAIN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY BASED ON THE LATEST MOS TRENDS. BY
AFTERNOON...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE 5-15 MPH WILL HELP THE CAUSE
TO MIX THE COLUMN A LITTLE BETTER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WE ARE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 70...HIGHER IN THE VALLEYS...A TAD LOWER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD
MITIGATE THE FORMATION OF FOG...AT LEAST IN MOST PLACES. FOR
NOW...NO MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE REGARDING LOW TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY RIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. WE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO 50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...MILDEST IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG DEVELOPING MID
LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALSO FEATURE A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM IT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND
WHIP THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SATURDAY.
UNLIKE MANY DISTURBANCES OF LATE...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (PUSHING PWATS TO OVER 1.5
INCHES)...AND STRONG FORCING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THESE FACTORS WILL SHOULD ALL ADD UP TO A
SOAKING RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. WE DID SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF
SHOWERS A LITTLE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT (LOWERING POPS A LITTLE) BUT
SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET...ESPECIALLY MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS A LINE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER MOVES ON THROUGH. THE WIND FIELD DOES NOT LOOK
ESPECIALLY STRONG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 25-30 MPH JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF WE WERE TO
REAP ANY CONVECTION. WHILE THIS WIND WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY
DAMAGE...IT WOULD BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH THE RAIN...TO PULL
MANY LEAVES OFF THE TREES.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
HELD TO THE 60S...DESPITE WARM H850 TEMPERATURES UP TO +13C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR ENTIRE REGION WILL BE EXPERIENCING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START
BELOW AVERAGE AS WE GO THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND BUT
WILL MODIFY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AS WE GO INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION AS A NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE APEX INTO THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY EVENING. LATEST 01/12Z GUIDANCE AND
PROBABILISTIC MODELS DO HAVE THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AT DIFFERENT TIMES...HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP PRODUCE SUFFICIENT ASCENT THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED QPF TOTALS. THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LATEST 12Z DATA
SHOWING T850 AND T925 TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 1C AND 4C. THIS
WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A BROAD AREA OF INFLUENCE REACHING THE LOWER 48
WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THIS BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
FROM A WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION USHERING IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
STEER WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES THROUGH THE REGION WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN IMPULSE INTENSITIES AND
TIMING EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z MODELS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY WELL INTO THE 60S AS WE GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CHANCES DECREASING LATE.

CLOUDS HEIGHTS WILL LOWER TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING...WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KPSF FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT. GRADUALLY
IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT N-NE FLOW SHIFTING TO
E-SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL TODAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WAS SOME AREAS IN VERMONT/THE BERKSHIRES AND CONNECTICUT
RECEIVED AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT AND DROP ONLY TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE
KICKING UP TO 10-15 MPH AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO BETWEEN 75-90 PERSISTENT. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE MIGHT
PERSIST...LIMITING THE FORMATION OF DEW.

A SOAKING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR BETTER.

COOLER...MAINLY DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY
DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL.

IT WILL DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 012346
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
746 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE OCCURRING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY EAST OF OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. THIS IS THE RESULT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT SURFACE
PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...IN COMBINATION WITH A LOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVING OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL GIVE
WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE REGION IN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION.
THIS IS RESULTING LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND  PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
EAST. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CHANCES DECREASING LATE.

LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH 40S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM AND BE THE MOST DENSE IS
AREAS WHERE THE CLOUD COVER IS LEAST NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM EASTERN CANADA...NOT ONLY AT THE
SURFACE BUT ALOFT. EVEN SO...SCOURING OUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE
CHALLENGE GIVEN AN RATHER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LOWERING
SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG MUCH OF THE DAY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BASED
ON THE SLOW DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS...THEREBY LEANING WITH THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS WILL STILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 65-70...PRETTY
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...BY THIS TIME...WE ASSUME MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE
SCOURED OUT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IT WILL BE CALM NIGHT AND PRESUMABLY MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS
WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR FOG...PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AND EVEN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS HOW
WE WILL PLAY IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST AND GRIDS. THE SURFACE WIND (AND
WIND ALOFT) LOOKED TOO LIGHT FOR THE FORMATION OF STRATUS...BUT THAT
IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ONCE THE FOG FORMS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SLOW DOWN...OR EVEN
GO THE OTHER WAY BY A POINT OR TWO...DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE
DUE TO CONDENSATION. WE FIGURE ON LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER PLACES.

FRIDAY LOOKS NICE ONCE WE LOOSE THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS...WHICH
IN SOME VALLEYS...MIGHT NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MIDDAY. ONCE AGAIN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY BASED ON THE LATEST MOS TRENDS. BY
AFTERNOON...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE 5-15 MPH WILL HELP THE CAUSE
TO MIX THE COLUMN A LITTLE BETTER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WE ARE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 70...HIGHER IN THE VALLEYS...A TAD LOWER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD
MITIGATE THE FORMATION OF FOG...AT LEAST IN MOST PLACES. FOR
NOW...NO MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE REGARDING LOW TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY RIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. WE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO 50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...MILDEST IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG DEVELOPING MID
LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALSO FEATURE A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM IT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND
WHIP THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SATURDAY.
UNLIKE MANY DISTURBANCES OF LATE...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (PUSHING PWATS TO OVER 1.5
INCHES)...AND STRONG FORCING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THESE FACTORS WILL SHOULD ALL ADD UP TO A
SOAKING RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. WE DID SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF
SHOWERS A LITTLE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT (LOWERING POPS A LITTLE) BUT
SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET...ESPECIALLY MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS A LINE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER MOVES ON THROUGH. THE WIND FIELD DOES NOT LOOK
ESPECIALLY STRONG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 25-30 MPH JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF WE WERE TO
REAP ANY CONVECTION. WHILE THIS WIND WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY
DAMAGE...IT WOULD BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH THE RAIN...TO PULL
MANY LEAVES OFF THE TREES.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
HELD TO THE 60S...DESPITE WARM H850 TEMPERATURES UP TO +13C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR ENTIRE REGION WILL BE EXPERIENCING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START
BELOW AVERAGE AS WE GO THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND BUT
WILL MODIFY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AS WE GO INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION AS A NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE APEX INTO THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY EVENING. LATEST 01/12Z GUIDANCE AND
PROBABILISTIC MODELS DO HAVE THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AT DIFFERENT TIMES...HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP PRODUCE SUFFICIENT ASCENT THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED QPF TOTALS. THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LATEST 12Z DATA
SHOWING T850 AND T925 TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 1C AND 4C. THIS
WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A BROAD AREA OF INFLUENCE REACHING THE LOWER 48
WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THIS BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
FROM A WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION USHERING IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
STEER WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES THROUGH THE REGION WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN IMPULSE INTENSITIES AND
TIMING EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z MODELS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY WELL INTO THE 60S AS WE GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CHANCES DECREASING LATE.

CLOUDS HEIGHTS WILL LOWER TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING...WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KPSF FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT. GRADUALLY
IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT N-NE FLOW SHIFTING TO
E-SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL TODAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WAS SOME AREAS IN VERMONT/THE BERKSHIRES AND CONNECTICUT
RECEIVED AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT AND DROP ONLY TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE
KICKING UP TO 10-15 MPH AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO BETWEEN 75-90 PERSISTENT. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE MIGHT
PERSIST...LIMITING THE FORMATION OF DEW.

A SOAKING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR BETTER.

COOLER...MAINLY DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY
DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL.

IT WILL DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBOX 012328
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COOL...WET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BRING DRY AIR BACK IN LATE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...
BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS FAR SE
MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING. RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN WELL DEFINED TROWAL SIGNATURE ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOVEMENT OF THIS TROWAL
SIGNATURE SO CURRENT AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO EXPAND
WEST SO MAY SEE SOME WESTWARD EXPANSION TO THE RAIN AREA. WE
UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RAIN AXIS AND EXPECTED TRENDS BUT
ALSO LOWERED POPS IN WESTERN HALF SNE.

18Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON EXTREMELY HIGH QPF AS LOW
LEVEL JET NOT FORECAST TO BE AS ROBUST. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE
COD WHICH IS WHERE CURRENT RAIN AREA IS LOCATED. STILL EXPECT
2-4" RAINFALL ACROSS FAR SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 6" AS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER CAPE HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED UP TO 3" RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TOMORROW...
EARLY MORNING RAINS CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE
REGION AS SFC INVERTED TROF AND UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGIN SLOW SHIFT
OFFSHORE. DRIER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO WORK IN FROM THE W
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER GRADIENT FLOW REMAINS MAINLY N-NE.
THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY...THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY REMAIN AT LEAST INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE...SLOWLY...FROM W TO E
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUCH THAT SOME ACTUALLY MAY SEE A SUNSET. THE
E SHORES MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY
HOWEVER...AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER AND A MODEST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARRIVES TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE N.
NOTING ENOUGH DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND
THAT SOME MAY SEE SOME CI FILTERED STAR-LIGHT AND EVEN SOME
CLEARING SKIES. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN DWPTS ARE LIKELY TO
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AND TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO HEAD THIS WAY AS
WELL. THEREFORE...WITH SOME LEFTOVER GROUND MOISTURE...FOG IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS...AND MAY EVEN BE LOCALLY DENSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING
* DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY
* MODERATING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND GT LAKES LOW THIS WEEKEND AND TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE SAT AND SAT EVENING WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN...MOST OF
WHICH LOOKS TO FALL SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N
INTO CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TROF SETTING UP ACROSS THE
GT LAKES AND BROAD CYCLONIC SW FLOW INTO NEW ENG. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN TROF BUT
BUT IT APPEARS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

DAILIES...

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE COLUMN IS MOSTLY DRY WHICH SUPPORTS MOSUNNY SKIES...BUT
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACKING IN FROM THE EAST WHICH
MAY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO CAPE/ISLANDS AND INTO E MA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WEST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW ENG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND NE FLOW BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT. TEMPS FRI WILL BE IN THE
60S...COOLEST E MA COAST AND MILDEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING ACROSS SNE...REACHING CT VALLEY BY 00Z AND OFF THE COAST
BY 06Z. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
PWAT PLUME 1.5"+ WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SNE.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND IT/S POSSIBLE BULK OF RAIN COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SAT
FOR E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS. THERE IS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE MODELS SO CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWER AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...BUT
SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT DURATION OF RAINFALL WITH
RAIN EXITING THE REGION 00-06Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY WITH MODEST WESTERLY WINDS
AND MOSUNNY SKIES...THEN BREEZY AND MILDER MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW. A BIT MORE CLOUDS POSSIBLE
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST ZONES AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUE AS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN SOME DRYING ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY MIX OF IFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. BETWEEN
RAINFALL...CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS.
ALSO...THERE IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN A BRIEF
THUNDERSHOWER FOR RI AND SE MA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE N-NE WITH GUSTS 25-30
KT POSSIBLE AT NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END WITH A SLOW LIFT FROM IFR/MVFR
TO VFR FROM W TO E. SOME E LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND MAY WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE FULLY BREAKING
OUT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY BACK IN
FROM THE OCEAN INTO E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS FRI AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CIGS LOWERING TO IFR FRI NIGHT AND EXPANDING WEST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED.
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SNE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTH
WINDS SAT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ...HIGH CONFIDENCE

INCREASING NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...SUCH THAT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
NOT EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION A BRIEF WIND GUST APPROACHES GALE
FORCE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF BY THEN...SWELLS
APPROACHING 9 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND THESE WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO FALL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRI...EXPECT DIMINISHING NE WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. BUT HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
OVER OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY
NEARSHORE WATERS AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.  CURRENT
FORECAST WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INCREASED. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING AND SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST SAT NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING VSBYS.

SUNDAY...WEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL PERSIST.

MONDAY...SW WINDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THE
ISSUE AT HAND IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH FINAL STORM TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES. THIS MAY LEAD TO
URBAN/STREET AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN THE WATCH
AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS
OF RAINFALL SETS UP...AS IT MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF IT BEING FURTHER W...AND THAT HEAVY RAIN IS
CURRENTLY FALLING IN THIS AREA...FEEL THE WATCH IS WARRANTED. MAY
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION FURTHER W...FOR THE
URBAN AREAS OF RI GIVEN THAT SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD PROGRESSION IS
EVIDENT IN SOME GUIDANCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ017>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232-235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-231-
     233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 012328
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COOL...WET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BRING DRY AIR BACK IN LATE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...
BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS FAR SE
MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING. RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN WELL DEFINED TROWAL SIGNATURE ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOVEMENT OF THIS TROWAL
SIGNATURE SO CURRENT AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO EXPAND
WEST SO MAY SEE SOME WESTWARD EXPANSION TO THE RAIN AREA. WE
UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RAIN AXIS AND EXPECTED TRENDS BUT
ALSO LOWERED POPS IN WESTERN HALF SNE.

18Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON EXTREMELY HIGH QPF AS LOW
LEVEL JET NOT FORECAST TO BE AS ROBUST. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE
COD WHICH IS WHERE CURRENT RAIN AREA IS LOCATED. STILL EXPECT
2-4" RAINFALL ACROSS FAR SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 6" AS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER CAPE HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED UP TO 3" RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TOMORROW...
EARLY MORNING RAINS CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE
REGION AS SFC INVERTED TROF AND UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGIN SLOW SHIFT
OFFSHORE. DRIER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO WORK IN FROM THE W
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER GRADIENT FLOW REMAINS MAINLY N-NE.
THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY...THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY REMAIN AT LEAST INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE...SLOWLY...FROM W TO E
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUCH THAT SOME ACTUALLY MAY SEE A SUNSET. THE
E SHORES MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY
HOWEVER...AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER AND A MODEST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARRIVES TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE N.
NOTING ENOUGH DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND
THAT SOME MAY SEE SOME CI FILTERED STAR-LIGHT AND EVEN SOME
CLEARING SKIES. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN DWPTS ARE LIKELY TO
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AND TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO HEAD THIS WAY AS
WELL. THEREFORE...WITH SOME LEFTOVER GROUND MOISTURE...FOG IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS...AND MAY EVEN BE LOCALLY DENSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING
* DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY
* MODERATING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND GT LAKES LOW THIS WEEKEND AND TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE SAT AND SAT EVENING WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN...MOST OF
WHICH LOOKS TO FALL SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N
INTO CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TROF SETTING UP ACROSS THE
GT LAKES AND BROAD CYCLONIC SW FLOW INTO NEW ENG. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN TROF BUT
BUT IT APPEARS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

DAILIES...

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE COLUMN IS MOSTLY DRY WHICH SUPPORTS MOSUNNY SKIES...BUT
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACKING IN FROM THE EAST WHICH
MAY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO CAPE/ISLANDS AND INTO E MA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WEST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW ENG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND NE FLOW BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT. TEMPS FRI WILL BE IN THE
60S...COOLEST E MA COAST AND MILDEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING ACROSS SNE...REACHING CT VALLEY BY 00Z AND OFF THE COAST
BY 06Z. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
PWAT PLUME 1.5"+ WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SNE.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND IT/S POSSIBLE BULK OF RAIN COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SAT
FOR E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS. THERE IS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE MODELS SO CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWER AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...BUT
SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT DURATION OF RAINFALL WITH
RAIN EXITING THE REGION 00-06Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY WITH MODEST WESTERLY WINDS
AND MOSUNNY SKIES...THEN BREEZY AND MILDER MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW. A BIT MORE CLOUDS POSSIBLE
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST ZONES AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUE AS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN SOME DRYING ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY MIX OF IFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. BETWEEN
RAINFALL...CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS.
ALSO...THERE IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN A BRIEF
THUNDERSHOWER FOR RI AND SE MA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE N-NE WITH GUSTS 25-30
KT POSSIBLE AT NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END WITH A SLOW LIFT FROM IFR/MVFR
TO VFR FROM W TO E. SOME E LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND MAY WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE FULLY BREAKING
OUT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY BACK IN
FROM THE OCEAN INTO E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS FRI AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CIGS LOWERING TO IFR FRI NIGHT AND EXPANDING WEST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED.
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SNE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTH
WINDS SAT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ...HIGH CONFIDENCE

INCREASING NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...SUCH THAT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
NOT EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION A BRIEF WIND GUST APPROACHES GALE
FORCE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF BY THEN...SWELLS
APPROACHING 9 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND THESE WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO FALL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRI...EXPECT DIMINISHING NE WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. BUT HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
OVER OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY
NEARSHORE WATERS AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.  CURRENT
FORECAST WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INCREASED. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING AND SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST SAT NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING VSBYS.

SUNDAY...WEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL PERSIST.

MONDAY...SW WINDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THE
ISSUE AT HAND IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH FINAL STORM TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES. THIS MAY LEAD TO
URBAN/STREET AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN THE WATCH
AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS
OF RAINFALL SETS UP...AS IT MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF IT BEING FURTHER W...AND THAT HEAVY RAIN IS
CURRENTLY FALLING IN THIS AREA...FEEL THE WATCH IS WARRANTED. MAY
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION FURTHER W...FOR THE
URBAN AREAS OF RI GIVEN THAT SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD PROGRESSION IS
EVIDENT IN SOME GUIDANCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ017>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232-235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-231-
     233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KALY 012013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO PATCHY DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS...WILL GIVE WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. THEN...A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
SATURDAY LIKELY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW YORK REMAINED
BLANKETED IN CLOUDS. NORTHERN HERKIMER WAS THE ONLY
EXCEPTION...PARTLY SUNNY. A VERTICALLY STACKED WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER LONG ISLAND MOVING VERY FLOW SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

RADAR INDICATED THE WESTWARD TREND OF THE SHOWERS HAVE ENDED...IN
FACT THEY WERE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE NY/NEW ENGLAND
BORDER. NEVERTHELESS...THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH EVENING...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WERE HELD TO THE 60S TODAY...EXCEPT
AROUND 70 ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

ANY PATCHES OF DRIZZLE SHOULD END EXCEPT IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
COULD HAVE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT SINCE
THERE WILL LIKELY BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE IT LOOKS PARTLY CLOUDY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
OVERNIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOLEST (DOWN INTO THE MID
40S). ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND 50. PATCHES OF FOG FORM WILL FORM...MOST DENSE WHERE THE
CLOUD COVER IS LEAST...DUE TO MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM EASTERN CANADA...NOT ONLY AT THE
SURFACE BUT ALOFT. EVEN SO...SCOURING OUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE
CHALLENGE GIVEN AN RATHER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LOWERING
SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG MUCH OF THE DAY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BASED
ON THE SLOW DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS...THEREBY LEANING WITH THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS WILL STILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 65-70...PRETTY
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...BY THIS TIME...WE ASSUME MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE
SCOURED OUT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IT WILL BE CALM NIGHT AND PRESUMABLY MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS
WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR FOG...PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AND EVEN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS HOW
WE WILL PLAY IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST AND GRIDS. THE SURFACE WIND (AND
WIND ALOFT) LOOKED TOO LIGHT FOR THE FORMATION OF STRATUS...BUT THAT
IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ONCE THE FOG FORMS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SLOW DOWN...OR EVEN
GO THE OTHER WAY BY A POINT OR TWO...DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE
DUE TO CONDENSATION. WE FIGURE ON LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER PLACES.

FRIDAY LOOKS NICE ONCE WE LOOSE THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS...WHICH
IN SOME VALLEYS...MIGHT NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MIDDAY. ONCE AGAIN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY BASED ON THE LATEST MOS TRENDS. BY
AFTERNOON...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE 5-15 MPH WILL HELP THE CAUSE
TO MIX THE COLUMN A LITTLE BETTER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WE ARE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 70...HIGHER IN THE VALLEYS...A TAD LOWER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD
MITIGATE THE FORMATION OF FOG...AT LEAST IN MOST PLACES. FOR
NOW...NO MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE REGARDING LOW TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY RIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. WE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO 50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...MILDEST IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG DEVELOPING MID
LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALSO FEATURE A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM IT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND
WHIP THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SATURDAY.
UNLIKE MANY DISTURBANCES OF LATE...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (PUSHING PWATS TO OVER 1.5
INCHES)...AND STRONG FORCING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THESE FACTORS WILL SHOULD ALL ADD UP TO A
SOAKING RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. WE DID SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF
SHOWERS A LITTLE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT (LOWERING POPS A LITTLE) BUT
SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET...ESPECIALLY MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS A LINE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER MOVES ON THROUGH. THE WIND FIELD DOES NOT LOOK
ESPECIALLY STRONG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 25-30 MPH JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF WE WERE TO
REAP ANY CONVECTION. WHILE THIS WIND WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY
DAMAGE...IT WOULD BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH THE RAIN...TO PULL
MANY LEAVES OFF THE TREES.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
HELD TO THE 60S...DESPITE WARM H850 TEMPERATURES UP TO +13C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR ENTIRE REGION WILL BE EXPERIENCING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START
BELOW AVERAGE AS WE GO THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND BUT
WILL MODIFY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AS WE GO INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION AS A NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE APEX INTO THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY EVENING. LATEST 01/12Z GUIDANCE AND
PROBABILISTIC MODELS DO HAVE THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AT DIFFERENT TIMES...HOWEVER BOTH SHOW
ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP PRODUCE SUFFICIENT ASCENT THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED QPF TOTALS. THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE LATEST 12Z DATA
SHOWING T850 AND T925 TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 1C AND 4C. THIS
WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A BROAD AREA OF INFLUENCE REACHING THE LOWER 48
WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THIS BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
FROM A WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION USHERING IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
STEER WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES THROUGH THE REGION WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN IMPULSE INTENSITIES AND
TIMING EXIST BETWEEN THE 12Z MODELS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY WELL INTO THE 60S AS WE GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS TAF SITES ON AN EASTERLY FLOW
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT MVFR CONDS WILL BE THE NORM
WITH IFR AT KPOU UNTIL MID AFT DUE TO LOW CIGS.

OVERNIGHT MOISTURE WILL CONT TO CIRCULATE ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH
ANY CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
18Z THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS AFT 15Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 15Z AND THEN
BECOME N-NE AT 5-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL TODAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WAS SOME AREAS IN VERMONT/THE BERKSHIRES AND CONNECTICUT
RECEIVED AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT AND DROP ONLY TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE
KICKING UP TO 10-15 MPH AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO BETWEEN 75-90 PERSISTENT. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE MIGHT
PERSIST...LIMITING THE FORMATION OF DEW.

A SOAKING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR BETTER.

COOLER...MAINLY DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY
DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL.

IT WILL DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV






000
FXUS61 KBOX 012010
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COOL...WET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BRING DRY AIR BACK IN LATE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A HANGING TROWAL FORMATION ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL CUTOFF
MEANDERING ALONG THE S COASTAL REGION CONTINUES TO COMBINE WITH
MOIST COLUMN /PWATS LOCALLY EXCEED 1.5 INCHES/ CONTINUES TO YIELD
BANDS OF RAINFALL STRETCHING ACROSS THE WHOLE BOX CWA. THE NE FLOW
CONTINUES TOO...STREAMING IN PLENTY OF MARINE MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF MAINE. THIS TROWAL/SFC INVERTED TROF FEATURE WILL BE
DEFINING THE OVERNIGHT WX.

ALREADY WE ARE SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF ACK WHERE A MODEST AXIS OF UPPER LVL INSTABILITY
DEFINED BY A DRY SLOT ALONG THE UPPER CUTOFF EXISTS. ALTHOUGH
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST OF THIS IS ELEVATED IT IS ENOUGH TO
INITIATE LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THIS IS ALSO ALONG A
SLOWLY INCREASING ELY LLJ...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-45 KT AT H92 BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE /PWATS NEARLY 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL/ THE ROBUST LLJ AND MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY UNDER THE
SLOWLY ERD MOVING CUTOFF ALL SUGGEST THAT POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN AROUND SE MA. 12Z GUIDANCE ALL
NOW GENERALLY AGREE ON A LOCALLY HIGH QPF BULLSEYE ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME DISAGREEMENT AND CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK APPARENT. THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS CONTINUING/INCREASING OVERNIGHT HAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE
OF A FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MA...WHERE POCKETS OF TOTAL
RAINFALL COULD QUICKLY EXCEED 3 INCHES IN SPOTS /SEE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW/. IN FACT...REPORTS ALREADY INDICATE OVER AN INCH HAS FALLEN
IN THE WATCH AREA. THE FLUX IN THE LOCATION OF THE INVERTED TROF
DOES SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS COULD LIE OFFSHORE...BUT WITH THE
POTENTIAL SO CLOSE AND CONVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...FEEL THE WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR PRIMARILY THE URBAN
FLOOD THREAT.

OTHERWISE...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...PERIODIC RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE E.
ALTHOUGH DO NOTE THE INCREASE IN DRY AIR FROM THE W AS HIGH PRES
ATTEMPTS TO REGAIN CONTROL. THEREFORE...BY 12Z THE FOCUS MAINLY
MAY BE AWAY FROM NW MA AND SW NH.

MINS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TOMORROW...
EARLY MORNING RAINS CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE
REGION AS SFC INVERTED TROF AND UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGIN SLOW SHIFT
OFFSHORE. DRIER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO WORK IN FROM THE W
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER GRADIENT FLOW REMAINS MAINLY N-NE.
THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY...THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY REMAIN AT LEAST INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE...SLOWLY...FROM W TO E
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUCH THAT SOME ACTUALLY MAY SEE A SUNSET. THE
E SHORES MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY
HOWEVER...AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER AND A MODEST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARRIVES TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE N.
NOTING ENOUGH DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND
THAT SOME MAY SEE SOME CI FILTERED STAR-LIGHT AND EVEN SOME
CLEARING SKIES. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN DWPTS ARE LIKELY TO
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AND TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO HEAD THIS WAY AS
WELL. THEREFORE...WITH SOME LEFTOVER GROUND MOISTURE...FOG IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS...AND MAY EVEN BE LOCALLY DENSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING
* DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY
* MODERATING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND GT LAKES LOW THIS WEEKEND AND TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE SAT AND SAT EVENING WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN...MOST OF
WHICH LOOKS TO FALL SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N
INTO CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TROF SETTING UP ACROSS THE
GT LAKES AND BROAD CYCLONIC SW FLOW INTO NEW ENG. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN TROF BUT
BUT IT APPEARS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

DAILIES...

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE COLUMN IS MOSTLY DRY WHICH SUPPORTS MOSUNNY SKIES...BUT
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACKING IN FROM THE EAST WHICH
MAY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO CAPE/ISLANDS AND INTO E MA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WEST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW ENG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND NE FLOW BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT. TEMPS FRI WILL BE IN THE
60S...COOLEST E MA COAST AND MILDEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING ACROSS SNE...REACHING CT VALLEY BY 00Z AND OFF THE COAST
BY 06Z. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
PWAT PLUME 1.5"+ WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SNE.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND IT/S POSSIBLE BULK OF RAIN COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SAT
FOR E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS. THERE IS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE MODELS SO CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWER AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...BUT
SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT DURATION OF RAINFALL WITH
RAIN EXITING THE REGION 00-06Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY WITH MODEST WESTERLY WINDS
AND MOSUNNY SKIES...THEN BREEZY AND MILDER MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW. A BIT MORE CLOUDS POSSIBLE
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST ZONES AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUE AS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN SOME DRYING ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY MIX OF IFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. BETWEEN
RAINFALL...CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS.
ALSO...THERE IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN A BRIEF
THUNDERSHOWER FOR RI AND SE MA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE N-NE WITH GUSTS 25-30
KT POSSIBLE AT NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END WITH A SLOW LIFT FROM IFR/MVFR
TO VFR FROM W TO E. SOME E LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND MAY WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE FULLY BREAKING
OUT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY BACK IN
FROM THE OCEAN INTO E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS FRI AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CIGS LOWERING TO IFR FRI NIGHT AND EXPANDING WEST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED.
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SNE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTH
WINDS SAT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ...HIGH CONFIDENCE

INCREASING NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...SUCH THAT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
NOT EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION A BRIEF WIND GUST APPROACHES GALE
FORCE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF BY THEN...SWELLS
APPROACHING 9 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND THESE WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO FALL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRI...EXPECT DIMINISHING NE WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. BUT HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
OVER OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY
NEARSHORE WATERS AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.  CURRENT
FORECAST WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INCREASED. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING AND SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST SAT NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING VSBYS.

SUNDAY...WEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL PERSIST.

MONDAY...SW WINDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THE
ISSUE AT HAND IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH FINAL STORM TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES. THIS MAY LEAD TO
URBAN/STREET AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN THE WATCH
AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS
OF RAINFALL SETS UP...AS IT MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF IT BEING FURTHER W...AND THAT HEAVY RAIN IS
CURRENTLY FALLING IN THIS AREA...FEEL THE WATCH IS WARRANTED. MAY
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION FURTHER W...FOR THE
URBAN AREAS OF RI GIVEN THAT SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD PROGRESSION IS
EVIDENT IN SOME GUIDANCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ017>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232-235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-233-
     234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 012010
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COOL...WET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BRING DRY AIR BACK IN LATE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A HANGING TROWAL FORMATION ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL CUTOFF
MEANDERING ALONG THE S COASTAL REGION CONTINUES TO COMBINE WITH
MOIST COLUMN /PWATS LOCALLY EXCEED 1.5 INCHES/ CONTINUES TO YIELD
BANDS OF RAINFALL STRETCHING ACROSS THE WHOLE BOX CWA. THE NE FLOW
CONTINUES TOO...STREAMING IN PLENTY OF MARINE MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF MAINE. THIS TROWAL/SFC INVERTED TROF FEATURE WILL BE
DEFINING THE OVERNIGHT WX.

ALREADY WE ARE SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF ACK WHERE A MODEST AXIS OF UPPER LVL INSTABILITY
DEFINED BY A DRY SLOT ALONG THE UPPER CUTOFF EXISTS. ALTHOUGH
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST OF THIS IS ELEVATED IT IS ENOUGH TO
INITIATE LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THIS IS ALSO ALONG A
SLOWLY INCREASING ELY LLJ...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-45 KT AT H92 BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE /PWATS NEARLY 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL/ THE ROBUST LLJ AND MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY UNDER THE
SLOWLY ERD MOVING CUTOFF ALL SUGGEST THAT POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN AROUND SE MA. 12Z GUIDANCE ALL
NOW GENERALLY AGREE ON A LOCALLY HIGH QPF BULLSEYE ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME DISAGREEMENT AND CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK APPARENT. THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS CONTINUING/INCREASING OVERNIGHT HAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE
OF A FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MA...WHERE POCKETS OF TOTAL
RAINFALL COULD QUICKLY EXCEED 3 INCHES IN SPOTS /SEE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW/. IN FACT...REPORTS ALREADY INDICATE OVER AN INCH HAS FALLEN
IN THE WATCH AREA. THE FLUX IN THE LOCATION OF THE INVERTED TROF
DOES SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS COULD LIE OFFSHORE...BUT WITH THE
POTENTIAL SO CLOSE AND CONVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...FEEL THE WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR PRIMARILY THE URBAN
FLOOD THREAT.

OTHERWISE...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...PERIODIC RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE E.
ALTHOUGH DO NOTE THE INCREASE IN DRY AIR FROM THE W AS HIGH PRES
ATTEMPTS TO REGAIN CONTROL. THEREFORE...BY 12Z THE FOCUS MAINLY
MAY BE AWAY FROM NW MA AND SW NH.

MINS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TOMORROW...
EARLY MORNING RAINS CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE
REGION AS SFC INVERTED TROF AND UPPER LVL CUTOFF BEGIN SLOW SHIFT
OFFSHORE. DRIER AIR WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO WORK IN FROM THE W
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER GRADIENT FLOW REMAINS MAINLY N-NE.
THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY...THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY REMAIN AT LEAST INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE...SLOWLY...FROM W TO E
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUCH THAT SOME ACTUALLY MAY SEE A SUNSET. THE
E SHORES MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY
HOWEVER...AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER AND A MODEST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARRIVES TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. HIGHS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE N.
NOTING ENOUGH DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND
THAT SOME MAY SEE SOME CI FILTERED STAR-LIGHT AND EVEN SOME
CLEARING SKIES. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN DWPTS ARE LIKELY TO
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AND TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO HEAD THIS WAY AS
WELL. THEREFORE...WITH SOME LEFTOVER GROUND MOISTURE...FOG IS
LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS...AND MAY EVEN BE LOCALLY DENSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY SAT INTO SAT EVENING
* DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY
* MODERATING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND GT LAKES LOW THIS WEEKEND AND TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE SAT AND SAT EVENING WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN...MOST OF
WHICH LOOKS TO FALL SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS N
INTO CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TROF SETTING UP ACROSS THE
GT LAKES AND BROAD CYCLONIC SW FLOW INTO NEW ENG. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN TROF BUT
BUT IT APPEARS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

DAILIES...

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE COLUMN IS MOSTLY DRY WHICH SUPPORTS MOSUNNY SKIES...BUT
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACKING IN FROM THE EAST WHICH
MAY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO CAPE/ISLANDS AND INTO E MA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WEST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW ENG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND NE FLOW BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT. TEMPS FRI WILL BE IN THE
60S...COOLEST E MA COAST AND MILDEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LATE SAT AND
SAT EVENING ACROSS SNE...REACHING CT VALLEY BY 00Z AND OFF THE COAST
BY 06Z. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
PWAT PLUME 1.5"+ WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SNE.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND IT/S POSSIBLE BULK OF RAIN COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SAT
FOR E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS. THERE IS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY NOTED IN THE MODELS SO CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWER AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...BUT
SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT DURATION OF RAINFALL WITH
RAIN EXITING THE REGION 00-06Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY WITH MODEST WESTERLY WINDS
AND MOSUNNY SKIES...THEN BREEZY AND MILDER MONDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW. A BIT MORE CLOUDS POSSIBLE
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST ZONES AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUE AS SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN SOME DRYING ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY MIX OF IFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. BETWEEN
RAINFALL...CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS.
ALSO...THERE IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN A BRIEF
THUNDERSHOWER FOR RI AND SE MA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE N-NE WITH GUSTS 25-30
KT POSSIBLE AT NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END WITH A SLOW LIFT FROM IFR/MVFR
TO VFR FROM W TO E. SOME E LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND MAY WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE FULLY BREAKING
OUT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY BACK IN
FROM THE OCEAN INTO E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS FRI AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CIGS LOWERING TO IFR FRI NIGHT AND EXPANDING WEST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED.
PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SNE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTH
WINDS SAT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ...HIGH CONFIDENCE

INCREASING NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...SUCH THAT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
NOT EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION A BRIEF WIND GUST APPROACHES GALE
FORCE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE...AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF BY THEN...SWELLS
APPROACHING 9 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND THESE WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO FALL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRI...EXPECT DIMINISHING NE WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. BUT HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
OVER OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY
NEARSHORE WATERS AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.  CURRENT
FORECAST WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INCREASED. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG IN THE MORNING AND SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST SAT NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING VSBYS.

SUNDAY...WEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL PERSIST.

MONDAY...SW WINDS MOSTLY BELOW SCA WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THE
ISSUE AT HAND IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH FINAL STORM TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES. THIS MAY LEAD TO
URBAN/STREET AND EVEN POSSIBLY SOME BASEMENT FLOODING IN THE WATCH
AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST AXIS
OF RAINFALL SETS UP...AS IT MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF IT BEING FURTHER W...AND THAT HEAVY RAIN IS
CURRENTLY FALLING IN THIS AREA...FEEL THE WATCH IS WARRANTED. MAY
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION FURTHER W...FOR THE
URBAN AREAS OF RI GIVEN THAT SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD PROGRESSION IS
EVIDENT IN SOME GUIDANCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ017>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232-235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-233-
     234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 012004 RRA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO PATCHY DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS...WILL GIVE WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. THEN...A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
SATURDAY LIKELY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW YORK REMAINED
BLANKETED IN CLOUDS. NORTHERN HERKIMER WAS THE ONLY
EXCEPTION...PARTLY SUNNY. A VERTICALLY STACKED WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER LONG ISLAND MOVING VERY FLOW SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

RADAR INDICATED THE WESTWARD TREND OF THE SHOWERS HAVE ENDED...IN
FACT THEY WERE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE NY/NEW ENGLAND
BORDER. NEVERTHELESS...THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH EVENING...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WERE HELD TO THE 60S TODAY...EXCEPT
AROUND 70 ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

ANY PATCHES OF DRIZZLE SHOULD END EXCEPT IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
COULD HAVE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT SINCE
THERE WILL LIKELY BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE IT LOOKS PARTLY CLOUDY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
OVERNIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOLEST (DOWN INTO THE MID
40S). ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND 50. PATCHES OF FOG FORM WILL FORM...MOST DENSE WHERE THE
CLOUD COVER IS LEAST...DUE TO MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM EASTERN CANADA...NOT ONLY AT THE
SURFACE BUT ALOFT. EVEN SO...SCOURING OUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE
CHALLENGE GIVEN AN RATHER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LOWERING
SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG MUCH OF THE DAY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BASED
ON THE SLOW DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS...THEREBY LEANING WITH THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS WILL STILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 65-70...PRETTY
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...BY THIS TIME...WE ASSUME MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE
SCOURED OUT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IT WILL BE CALM NIGHT AND PRESUMABLY MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS
WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR FOG...PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AND EVEN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS HOW
WE WILL PLAY IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST AND GRIDS. THE SURFACE WIND (AND
WIND ALOFT) LOOKED TOO LIGHT FOR THE FORMATION OF STRATUS...BUT THAT
IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ONCE THE FOG FORMS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SLOW DOWN...OR EVEN
GO THE OTHER WAY BY A POINT OR TWO...DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE
DUE TO CONDENSATION. WE FIGURE ON LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER PLACES.

FRIDAY LOOKS NICE ONCE WE LOOSE THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS...WHICH
IN SOME VALLEYS...MIGHT NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MIDDAY. ONCE AGAIN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY BASED ON THE LATEST MOS TRENDS. BY
AFTERNOON...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE 5-15 MPH WILL HELP THE CAUSE
TO MIX THE COLUMN A LITTLE BETTER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WE ARE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 70...HIGHER IN THE VALLEYS...A TAD LOWER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD
MITIGATE THE FORMATION OF FOG...AT LEAST IN MOST PLACES. FOR
NOW...NO MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE REGARDING LOW TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY RIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. WE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO 50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...MILDEST IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG DEVELOPING MID
LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALSO FEATURE A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM IT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND
WHIP THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SATURDAY.
UNLIKE MANY DISTURBANCES OF LATE...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (PUSHING PWATS TO OVER 1.5
INCHES)...AND STRONG FORCING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THESE FACTORS WILL SHOULD ALL ADD UP TO A
SOAKING RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. WE DID SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF
SHOWERS A LITTLE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT (LOWERING POPS A LITTLE) BUT
SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET...ESPECIALLY MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS A LINE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER MOVES ON THROUGH. THE WIND FIELD DOES NOT LOOK
ESPECIALLY STRONG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 25-30 MPH JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF WE WERE TO
REAP ANY CONVECTION. WHILE THIS WIND WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY
DAMAGE...IT WOULD BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH THE RAIN...TO PULL
MANY LEAVES OFF THE TREES.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
HELD TO THE 60S...DESPITE WARM H850 TEMPERATURES UP TO +13C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS TAF SITES ON AN EASTERLY FLOW
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT MVFR CONDS WILL BE THE NORM
WITH IFR AT KPOU UNTIL MID AFT DUE TO LOW CIGS.

OVERNIGHT MOISTURE WILL CONT TO CIRCULATE ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH
ANY CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
18Z THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS AFT 15Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 15Z AND THEN
BECOME N-NE AT 5-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL TODAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WAS SOME AREAS IN VERMONT/THE BERKSHIRES AND CONNECTICUT
RECEIVED AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT AND DROP ONLY TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE
KICKING UP TO 10-15 MPH AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO BETWEEN 75-90 PERSISTENT. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE MIGHT
PERSIST...LIMITING THE FORMATION OF DEW.

A SOAKING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR BETTER.

COOLER...MAINLY DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY
DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL.

IT WILL DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KALY 012004 RRA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO PATCHY DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS...WILL GIVE WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. THEN...A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
SATURDAY LIKELY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW YORK REMAINED
BLANKETED IN CLOUDS. NORTHERN HERKIMER WAS THE ONLY
EXCEPTION...PARTLY SUNNY. A VERTICALLY STACKED WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER LONG ISLAND MOVING VERY FLOW SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

RADAR INDICATED THE WESTWARD TREND OF THE SHOWERS HAVE ENDED...IN
FACT THEY WERE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE NY/NEW ENGLAND
BORDER. NEVERTHELESS...THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH EVENING...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WERE HELD TO THE 60S TODAY...EXCEPT
AROUND 70 ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

ANY PATCHES OF DRIZZLE SHOULD END EXCEPT IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
COULD HAVE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT SINCE
THERE WILL LIKELY BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE IT LOOKS PARTLY CLOUDY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
OVERNIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOLEST (DOWN INTO THE MID
40S). ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND 50. PATCHES OF FOG FORM WILL FORM...MOST DENSE WHERE THE
CLOUD COVER IS LEAST...DUE TO MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM EASTERN CANADA...NOT ONLY AT THE
SURFACE BUT ALOFT. EVEN SO...SCOURING OUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE
CHALLENGE GIVEN AN RATHER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LOWERING
SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG MUCH OF THE DAY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BASED
ON THE SLOW DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS...THEREBY LEANING WITH THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS WILL STILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 65-70...PRETTY
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...BY THIS TIME...WE ASSUME MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE
SCOURED OUT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IT WILL BE CALM NIGHT AND PRESUMABLY MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS
WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR FOG...PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AND EVEN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS HOW
WE WILL PLAY IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST AND GRIDS. THE SURFACE WIND (AND
WIND ALOFT) LOOKED TOO LIGHT FOR THE FORMATION OF STRATUS...BUT THAT
IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ONCE THE FOG FORMS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SLOW DOWN...OR EVEN
GO THE OTHER WAY BY A POINT OR TWO...DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE
DUE TO CONDENSATION. WE FIGURE ON LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER PLACES.

FRIDAY LOOKS NICE ONCE WE LOOSE THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS...WHICH
IN SOME VALLEYS...MIGHT NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MIDDAY. ONCE AGAIN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY BASED ON THE LATEST MOS TRENDS. BY
AFTERNOON...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE 5-15 MPH WILL HELP THE CAUSE
TO MIX THE COLUMN A LITTLE BETTER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WE ARE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 70...HIGHER IN THE VALLEYS...A TAD LOWER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD
MITIGATE THE FORMATION OF FOG...AT LEAST IN MOST PLACES. FOR
NOW...NO MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE REGARDING LOW TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY RIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. WE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO 50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...MILDEST IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG DEVELOPING MID
LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALSO FEATURE A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM IT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND
WHIP THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SATURDAY.
UNLIKE MANY DISTURBANCES OF LATE...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (PUSHING PWATS TO OVER 1.5
INCHES)...AND STRONG FORCING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THESE FACTORS WILL SHOULD ALL ADD UP TO A
SOAKING RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. WE DID SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF
SHOWERS A LITTLE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT (LOWERING POPS A LITTLE) BUT
SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET...ESPECIALLY MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS A LINE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER MOVES ON THROUGH. THE WIND FIELD DOES NOT LOOK
ESPECIALLY STRONG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 25-30 MPH JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF WE WERE TO
REAP ANY CONVECTION. WHILE THIS WIND WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY
DAMAGE...IT WOULD BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH THE RAIN...TO PULL
MANY LEAVES OFF THE TREES.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
HELD TO THE 60S...DESPITE WARM H850 TEMPERATURES UP TO +13C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS TAF SITES ON AN EASTERLY FLOW
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT MVFR CONDS WILL BE THE NORM
WITH IFR AT KPOU UNTIL MID AFT DUE TO LOW CIGS.

OVERNIGHT MOISTURE WILL CONT TO CIRCULATE ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH
ANY CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
18Z THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS AFT 15Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 15Z AND THEN
BECOME N-NE AT 5-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL TODAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WAS SOME AREAS IN VERMONT/THE BERKSHIRES AND CONNECTICUT
RECEIVED AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT AND DROP ONLY TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE
KICKING UP TO 10-15 MPH AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO BETWEEN 75-90 PERSISTENT. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE MIGHT
PERSIST...LIMITING THE FORMATION OF DEW.

A SOAKING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR BETTER.

COOLER...MAINLY DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY
DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL.

IT WILL DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KALY 012004 RRA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO PATCHY DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS...WILL GIVE WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. THEN...A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
SATURDAY LIKELY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW YORK REMAINED
BLANKETED IN CLOUDS. NORTHERN HERKIMER WAS THE ONLY
EXCEPTION...PARTLY SUNNY. A VERTICALLY STACKED WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER LONG ISLAND MOVING VERY FLOW SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

RADAR INDICATED THE WESTWARD TREND OF THE SHOWERS HAVE ENDED...IN
FACT THEY WERE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE NY/NEW ENGLAND
BORDER. NEVERTHELESS...THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH EVENING...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WERE HELD TO THE 60S TODAY...EXCEPT
AROUND 70 ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

ANY PATCHES OF DRIZZLE SHOULD END EXCEPT IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
COULD HAVE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT SINCE
THERE WILL LIKELY BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE IT LOOKS PARTLY CLOUDY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
OVERNIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOLEST (DOWN INTO THE MID
40S). ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND 50. PATCHES OF FOG FORM WILL FORM...MOST DENSE WHERE THE
CLOUD COVER IS LEAST...DUE TO MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM EASTERN CANADA...NOT ONLY AT THE
SURFACE BUT ALOFT. EVEN SO...SCOURING OUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE
CHALLENGE GIVEN AN RATHER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LOWERING
SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG MUCH OF THE DAY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BASED
ON THE SLOW DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS...THEREBY LEANING WITH THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS WILL STILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 65-70...PRETTY
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...BY THIS TIME...WE ASSUME MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE
SCOURED OUT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IT WILL BE CALM NIGHT AND PRESUMABLY MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS
WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR FOG...PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AND EVEN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS HOW
WE WILL PLAY IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST AND GRIDS. THE SURFACE WIND (AND
WIND ALOFT) LOOKED TOO LIGHT FOR THE FORMATION OF STRATUS...BUT THAT
IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ONCE THE FOG FORMS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SLOW DOWN...OR EVEN
GO THE OTHER WAY BY A POINT OR TWO...DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE
DUE TO CONDENSATION. WE FIGURE ON LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER PLACES.

FRIDAY LOOKS NICE ONCE WE LOOSE THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS...WHICH
IN SOME VALLEYS...MIGHT NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MIDDAY. ONCE AGAIN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY BASED ON THE LATEST MOS TRENDS. BY
AFTERNOON...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE 5-15 MPH WILL HELP THE CAUSE
TO MIX THE COLUMN A LITTLE BETTER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WE ARE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 70...HIGHER IN THE VALLEYS...A TAD LOWER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD
MITIGATE THE FORMATION OF FOG...AT LEAST IN MOST PLACES. FOR
NOW...NO MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE REGARDING LOW TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY RIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. WE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO 50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...MILDEST IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG DEVELOPING MID
LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALSO FEATURE A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM IT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND
WHIP THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SATURDAY.
UNLIKE MANY DISTURBANCES OF LATE...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (PUSHING PWATS TO OVER 1.5
INCHES)...AND STRONG FORCING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THESE FACTORS WILL SHOULD ALL ADD UP TO A
SOAKING RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. WE DID SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF
SHOWERS A LITTLE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT (LOWERING POPS A LITTLE) BUT
SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET...ESPECIALLY MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS A LINE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER MOVES ON THROUGH. THE WIND FIELD DOES NOT LOOK
ESPECIALLY STRONG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 25-30 MPH JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF WE WERE TO
REAP ANY CONVECTION. WHILE THIS WIND WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY
DAMAGE...IT WOULD BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH THE RAIN...TO PULL
MANY LEAVES OFF THE TREES.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
HELD TO THE 60S...DESPITE WARM H850 TEMPERATURES UP TO +13C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS TAF SITES ON AN EASTERLY FLOW
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT MVFR CONDS WILL BE THE NORM
WITH IFR AT KPOU UNTIL MID AFT DUE TO LOW CIGS.

OVERNIGHT MOISTURE WILL CONT TO CIRCULATE ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH
ANY CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
18Z THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS AFT 15Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 15Z AND THEN
BECOME N-NE AT 5-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL TODAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WAS SOME AREAS IN VERMONT/THE BERKSHIRES AND CONNECTICUT
RECEIVED AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT AND DROP ONLY TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE
KICKING UP TO 10-15 MPH AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO BETWEEN 75-90 PERSISTENT. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE MIGHT
PERSIST...LIMITING THE FORMATION OF DEW.

A SOAKING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR BETTER.

COOLER...MAINLY DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY
DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL.

IT WILL DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KALY 012004 RRA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO PATCHY DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS...WILL GIVE WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. THEN...A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
SATURDAY LIKELY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW YORK REMAINED
BLANKETED IN CLOUDS. NORTHERN HERKIMER WAS THE ONLY
EXCEPTION...PARTLY SUNNY. A VERTICALLY STACKED WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER LONG ISLAND MOVING VERY FLOW SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

RADAR INDICATED THE WESTWARD TREND OF THE SHOWERS HAVE ENDED...IN
FACT THEY WERE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE NY/NEW ENGLAND
BORDER. NEVERTHELESS...THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH EVENING...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WERE HELD TO THE 60S TODAY...EXCEPT
AROUND 70 ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

ANY PATCHES OF DRIZZLE SHOULD END EXCEPT IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
COULD HAVE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT SINCE
THERE WILL LIKELY BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE IT LOOKS PARTLY CLOUDY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
OVERNIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOLEST (DOWN INTO THE MID
40S). ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND 50. PATCHES OF FOG FORM WILL FORM...MOST DENSE WHERE THE
CLOUD COVER IS LEAST...DUE TO MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM EASTERN CANADA...NOT ONLY AT THE
SURFACE BUT ALOFT. EVEN SO...SCOURING OUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE
CHALLENGE GIVEN AN RATHER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LOWERING
SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG MUCH OF THE DAY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BASED
ON THE SLOW DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS...THEREBY LEANING WITH THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS WILL STILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 65-70...PRETTY
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...BY THIS TIME...WE ASSUME MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE
SCOURED OUT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IT WILL BE CALM NIGHT AND PRESUMABLY MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS
WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR FOG...PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AND EVEN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS HOW
WE WILL PLAY IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST AND GRIDS. THE SURFACE WIND (AND
WIND ALOFT) LOOKED TOO LIGHT FOR THE FORMATION OF STRATUS...BUT THAT
IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ONCE THE FOG FORMS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SLOW DOWN...OR EVEN
GO THE OTHER WAY BY A POINT OR TWO...DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE
DUE TO CONDENSATION. WE FIGURE ON LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER PLACES.

FRIDAY LOOKS NICE ONCE WE LOOSE THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS...WHICH
IN SOME VALLEYS...MIGHT NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MIDDAY. ONCE AGAIN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY BASED ON THE LATEST MOS TRENDS. BY
AFTERNOON...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE 5-15 MPH WILL HELP THE CAUSE
TO MIX THE COLUMN A LITTLE BETTER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WE ARE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 70...HIGHER IN THE VALLEYS...A TAD LOWER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD
MITIGATE THE FORMATION OF FOG...AT LEAST IN MOST PLACES. FOR
NOW...NO MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE REGARDING LOW TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY RIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. WE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO 50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...MILDEST IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG DEVELOPING MID
LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALSO FEATURE A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM IT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND
WHIP THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SATURDAY.
UNLIKE MANY DISTURBANCES OF LATE...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (PUSHING PWATS TO OVER 1.5
INCHES)...AND STRONG FORCING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THESE FACTORS WILL SHOULD ALL ADD UP TO A
SOAKING RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. WE DID SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF
SHOWERS A LITTLE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT (LOWERING POPS A LITTLE) BUT
SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET...ESPECIALLY MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS A LINE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER MOVES ON THROUGH. THE WIND FIELD DOES NOT LOOK
ESPECIALLY STRONG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 25-30 MPH JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF WE WERE TO
REAP ANY CONVECTION. WHILE THIS WIND WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY
DAMAGE...IT WOULD BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH THE RAIN...TO PULL
MANY LEAVES OFF THE TREES.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
HELD TO THE 60S...DESPITE WARM H850 TEMPERATURES UP TO +13C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS TAF SITES ON AN EASTERLY FLOW
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT MVFR CONDS WILL BE THE NORM
WITH IFR AT KPOU UNTIL MID AFT DUE TO LOW CIGS.

OVERNIGHT MOISTURE WILL CONT TO CIRCULATE ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH
ANY CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
18Z THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS AFT 15Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 15Z AND THEN
BECOME N-NE AT 5-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL TODAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WAS SOME AREAS IN VERMONT/THE BERKSHIRES AND CONNECTICUT
RECEIVED AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT AND DROP ONLY TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE
KICKING UP TO 10-15 MPH AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO BETWEEN 75-90 PERSISTENT. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE MIGHT
PERSIST...LIMITING THE FORMATION OF DEW.

A SOAKING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR BETTER.

COOLER...MAINLY DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY
DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL.

IT WILL DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KALY 012004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
213 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO PATCHY DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS...WILL GIVE WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. THEN...A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
SATURDAY LIKELY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW YORK REMAINED
BLANKETED IN CLOUDS. NORTHERN HERKIMER WAS THE ONLY
EXCEPTION...PARTLY SUNNY. A VERTICALLY STACKED WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER LONG ISLAND MOVING VERY FLOW SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

RADAR INDICATED THE WESTWARD TREND OF THE SHOWERS HAVE ENDED...IN
FACT THEY WERE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE NY/NEW ENGLAND
BORDER. NEVERTHELESS...THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH EVENING...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WERE HELD TO THE 60S TODAY...EXCEPT
AROUND 70 ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

ANY PATCHES OF DRIZZLE SHOULD END EXCEPT IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
COULD HAVE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT SINCE
THERE WILL LIKELY BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE IT LOOKS PARTLY CLOUDY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
OVERNIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOLEST (DOWN INTO THE MID
40S). ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND 50. PATCHES OF FOG FORM WILL FORM...MOST DENSE WHERE THE
CLOUD COVER IS LEAST...DUE TO MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM EASTERN CANADA...NOT ONLY AT THE
SURFACE BUT ALOFT. EVEN SO...SCOURING OUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE
CHALLENGE GIVEN AN RATHER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LOWERING
SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG MUCH OF THE DAY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BASED
ON THE SLOW DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS...THEREBY LEANING WITH THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS WILL STILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 65-70...PRETTY
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...BY THIS TIME...WE ASSUME MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE
SCOURED OUT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IT WILL BE CALM NIGHT AND PRESUMABLY MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS
WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR FOG...PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AND EVEN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS HOW
WE WILL PLAY IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST AND GRIDS. THE SURFACE WIND (AND
WIND ALOFT) LOOKED TOO LIGHT FOR THE FORMATION OF STRATUS...BUT THAT
IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ONCE THE FOG FORMS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SLOW DOWN...OR EVEN
GO THE OTHER WAY BY A POINT OR TWO...DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE
DUE TO CONDENSATION. WE FIGURE ON LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER PLACES.

FRIDAY LOOKS NICE ONCE WE LOOSE THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS...WHICH
IN SOME VALLEYS...MIGHT NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MIDDAY. ONCE AGAIN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY BASED ON THE LATEST MOS TRENDS. BY
AFTERNOON...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE 5-15 MPH WILL HELP THE CAUSE
TO MIX THE COLUMN A LITTLE BETTER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WE ARE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 70...HIGHER IN THE VALLEYS...A TAD LOWER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD
MITIGATE THE FORMATION OF FOG...AT LEAST IN MOST PLACES. FOR
NOW...NO MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE REGARDING LOW TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY RIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. WE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO 50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...MILDEST IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG DEVELOPING MID
LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALSO FEATURE A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM IT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND
WHIP THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SATURDAY.
UNLIKE MANY DISTURBANCES OF LATE...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (PUSHING PWATS TO OVER 1.5
INCHES)...AND STRONG FORCING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THESE FACTORS WILL SHOULD ALL ADD UP TO A
SOAKING RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. WE DID SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF
SHOWERS A LITTLE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT (LOWERING POPS A LITTLE) BUT
SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET...ESPECIALLY MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS A LINE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER MOVES ON THROUGH. THE WIND FIELD DOES NOT LOOK
ESPECIALLY STRONG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 25-30 MPH JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF WE WERE TO
REAP ANY CONVECTION. WHILE THIS WIND WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY
DAMAGE...IT WOULD BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH THE RAIN...TO PULL
MANY LEAVES OFF THE TREES.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
HELD TO THE 60S...DESPITE WARM H850 TEMPERATURES UP TO +13C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS TAF SITES ON AN EASTERLY FLOW
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT MVFR CONDS WILL BE THE NORM
WITH IFR AT KPOU UNTIL MID AFT DUE TO LOW CIGS.

OVERNIGHT MOISTURE WILL CONT TO CIRCULATE ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH
ANY CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
18Z THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS AFT 15Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 15Z AND THEN
BECOME N-NE AT 5-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL TODAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WAS SOME AREAS IN VERMONT/THE BERKSHIRES AND CONNECTICUT
RECEIVED AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT AND DROP ONLY TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE
KICKING UP TO 10-15 MPH AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO BETWEEN 75-90 PERSISTENT. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE MIGHT
PERSIST...LIMITING THE FORMATION OF DEW.

A SOAKING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR BETTER.

COOLER...MAINLY DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY
DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL.

IT WILL DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KALY 012004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
213 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO PATCHY DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS...WILL GIVE WAY TO BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL BE IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. THEN...A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
SATURDAY LIKELY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. COOLER BUT MAINLY DRIER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW YORK REMAINED
BLANKETED IN CLOUDS. NORTHERN HERKIMER WAS THE ONLY
EXCEPTION...PARTLY SUNNY. A VERTICALLY STACKED WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER LONG ISLAND MOVING VERY FLOW SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

RADAR INDICATED THE WESTWARD TREND OF THE SHOWERS HAVE ENDED...IN
FACT THEY WERE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE NY/NEW ENGLAND
BORDER. NEVERTHELESS...THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH EVENING...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED.

WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WERE HELD TO THE 60S TODAY...EXCEPT
AROUND 70 ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

ANY PATCHES OF DRIZZLE SHOULD END EXCEPT IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
COULD HAVE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT SINCE
THERE WILL LIKELY BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE IT LOOKS PARTLY CLOUDY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
OVERNIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOLEST (DOWN INTO THE MID
40S). ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LOWS
AROUND 50. PATCHES OF FOG FORM WILL FORM...MOST DENSE WHERE THE
CLOUD COVER IS LEAST...DUE TO MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM EASTERN CANADA...NOT ONLY AT THE
SURFACE BUT ALOFT. EVEN SO...SCOURING OUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE
CHALLENGE GIVEN AN RATHER STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LOWERING
SUN ANGLE. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG MUCH OF THE DAY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BASED
ON THE SLOW DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS...THEREBY LEANING WITH THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS WILL STILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS 65-70...PRETTY
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...BY THIS TIME...WE ASSUME MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE
SCOURED OUT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IT WILL BE CALM NIGHT AND PRESUMABLY MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS
WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR FOG...PERHAPS AREAS OF FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...AND EVEN PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS HOW
WE WILL PLAY IT OUT IN OUR FORECAST AND GRIDS. THE SURFACE WIND (AND
WIND ALOFT) LOOKED TOO LIGHT FOR THE FORMATION OF STRATUS...BUT THAT
IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ONCE THE FOG FORMS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SLOW DOWN...OR EVEN
GO THE OTHER WAY BY A POINT OR TWO...DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE
DUE TO CONDENSATION. WE FIGURE ON LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER PLACES.

FRIDAY LOOKS NICE ONCE WE LOOSE THE FOG AND ANY LOW CLOUDS...WHICH
IN SOME VALLEYS...MIGHT NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MIDDAY. ONCE AGAIN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST. DID LOWER SOME HIGH
TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY BASED ON THE LATEST MOS TRENDS. BY
AFTERNOON...A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE 5-15 MPH WILL HELP THE CAUSE
TO MIX THE COLUMN A LITTLE BETTER. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WE ARE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 70...HIGHER IN THE VALLEYS...A TAD LOWER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD
MITIGATE THE FORMATION OF FOG...AT LEAST IN MOST PLACES. FOR
NOW...NO MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE REGARDING LOW TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY RIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL REGION. WE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO 50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...MILDEST IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG DEVELOPING MID
LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALSO FEATURE A STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM IT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND
WHIP THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SATURDAY.
UNLIKE MANY DISTURBANCES OF LATE...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (PUSHING PWATS TO OVER 1.5
INCHES)...AND STRONG FORCING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THESE FACTORS WILL SHOULD ALL ADD UP TO A
SOAKING RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. WE DID SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF
SHOWERS A LITTLE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT (LOWERING POPS A LITTLE) BUT
SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET...ESPECIALLY MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS A LINE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER MOVES ON THROUGH. THE WIND FIELD DOES NOT LOOK
ESPECIALLY STRONG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 25-30 MPH JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF WE WERE TO
REAP ANY CONVECTION. WHILE THIS WIND WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY
DAMAGE...IT WOULD BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH THE RAIN...TO PULL
MANY LEAVES OFF THE TREES.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
HELD TO THE 60S...DESPITE WARM H850 TEMPERATURES UP TO +13C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS TAF SITES ON AN EASTERLY FLOW
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT MVFR CONDS WILL BE THE NORM
WITH IFR AT KPOU UNTIL MID AFT DUE TO LOW CIGS.

OVERNIGHT MOISTURE WILL CONT TO CIRCULATE ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH
ANY CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
18Z THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS AFT 15Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 15Z AND THEN
BECOME N-NE AT 5-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL TODAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WAS SOME AREAS IN VERMONT/THE BERKSHIRES AND CONNECTICUT
RECEIVED AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 PERCENT OVERNIGHT AND DROP ONLY TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A FULL RECOVERY EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE
KICKING UP TO 10-15 MPH AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO BETWEEN 75-90 PERSISTENT. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE MIGHT
PERSIST...LIMITING THE FORMATION OF DEW.

A SOAKING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR BETTER.

COOLER...MAINLY DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY
DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL.

IT WILL DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KBOX 011736
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
136 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
PERIOD OF RAIN BENEATH UPPER CUTOFF CONTINUES TO PINWHEEL ACROSS
THE REGION. THANKFULLY...RAINFALL RATES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
MODERATE AT BEST...JUST A GOOD SOAKING. OF CONCERN FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE AND SHARPENING OF
INVERTED TROF AND MODERATE 40+ KT LLJ LATE THIS EVENING WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE SE
MA AND RI REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD THEY SET UP. HOWEVER...NAILING THIS DOWN EXACTLY IS
DIFFICULT THANKS TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY MIX OF IFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. BETWEEN
RAINFALL...CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS.
ALSO...THERE IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN A BRIEF
THUNDERSHOWER FOR RI AND SE MA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE N-NE WITH GUSTS 25-30
KT POSSIBLE AT NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END WITH A SLOW LIFT FROM IFR/MVFR
TO VFR FROM W TO E. SOME E LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND MAY WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE FULLY BREAKING
OUT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-235-
     237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011736
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
136 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
PERIOD OF RAIN BENEATH UPPER CUTOFF CONTINUES TO PINWHEEL ACROSS
THE REGION. THANKFULLY...RAINFALL RATES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
MODERATE AT BEST...JUST A GOOD SOAKING. OF CONCERN FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE AND SHARPENING OF
INVERTED TROF AND MODERATE 40+ KT LLJ LATE THIS EVENING WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE SE
MA AND RI REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD THEY SET UP. HOWEVER...NAILING THIS DOWN EXACTLY IS
DIFFICULT THANKS TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY MIX OF IFR/MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. BETWEEN
RAINFALL...CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS.
ALSO...THERE IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN A BRIEF
THUNDERSHOWER FOR RI AND SE MA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE N-NE WITH GUSTS 25-30
KT POSSIBLE AT NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END WITH A SLOW LIFT FROM IFR/MVFR
TO VFR FROM W TO E. SOME E LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND MAY WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE FULLY BREAKING
OUT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR
IMPROVEMENT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-235-
     237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KALY 011729
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR A
CLEARING SKY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING A CLOSED OFF LOW OVER CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...VERY SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WERE
SCATTERED FROM ABOUT THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EASTWARD...BECOMING NUMEROUS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...CALLED IT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS (INSTEAD OF
CHANCE) SINCE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING. DID RAISE THE POPS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AS THE EASTERLY FLOW IN ENHANCED
ADDING LIFT AND MORE MOISTURE ON THE EASTWARD SIDE OF THE GREENS AND
TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...LESS SO THE WEST SIDE.

WE ALSO LOWERED A FEW TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN ZONES.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO
THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLY WON/T
MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE CAPITAL REGION.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREENS
AND BERKS...60-65 MOST OTHER PLACES. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...LOTS OF CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS TAF SITES ON AN EASTERLY FLOW
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT MVFR CONDS WILL BE THE NORM
WITH IFR AT KPOU UNTIL MID AFT DUE TO LOW CIGS.

OVERNIGHT MOISTURE WL CONT TO CIRCULATE ACRS THE TAF SITES WITH
ANY CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
18Z THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDS WL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS AFT 15Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 15Z AND THEN
BECOME N-NE AT 5-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 011729
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR A
CLEARING SKY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING A CLOSED OFF LOW OVER CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...VERY SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WERE
SCATTERED FROM ABOUT THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EASTWARD...BECOMING NUMEROUS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...CALLED IT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS (INSTEAD OF
CHANCE) SINCE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING. DID RAISE THE POPS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AS THE EASTERLY FLOW IN ENHANCED
ADDING LIFT AND MORE MOISTURE ON THE EASTWARD SIDE OF THE GREENS AND
TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...LESS SO THE WEST SIDE.

WE ALSO LOWERED A FEW TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN ZONES.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO
THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLY WON/T
MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE CAPITAL REGION.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREENS
AND BERKS...60-65 MOST OTHER PLACES. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...LOTS OF CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS TAF SITES ON AN EASTERLY FLOW
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT MVFR CONDS WILL BE THE NORM
WITH IFR AT KPOU UNTIL MID AFT DUE TO LOW CIGS.

OVERNIGHT MOISTURE WL CONT TO CIRCULATE ACRS THE TAF SITES WITH
ANY CLEARING NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
18Z THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDS WL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS AFT 15Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 15Z AND THEN
BECOME N-NE AT 5-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 011635
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR A
CLEARING SKY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING A CLOSED OFF LOW OVER CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...VERY SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WERE
SCATTERED FROM ABOUT THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EASTWARD...BECOMING NUMEROUS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...CALLED IT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS (INSTEAD OF
CHANCE) SINCE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING. DID RAISE THE POPS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AS THE EASTERLY FLOW IN ENHANCED
ADDING LIFT AND MORE MOISTURE ON THE EASTWARD SIDE OF THE GREENS AND
TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...LESS SO THE WEST SIDE.

WE ALSO LOWERED A FEW TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN ZONES.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO
THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLY WON/T
MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE CAPITAL REGION.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREENS
AND BERKS...60-65 MOST OTHER PLACES. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...LOTS OF CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BUILT
WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AFFECTS
THE REGION...WITH VCSH AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU WHERE PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KALY 011635
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR A
CLEARING SKY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING A CLOSED OFF LOW OVER CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...VERY SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WERE
SCATTERED FROM ABOUT THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EASTWARD...BECOMING NUMEROUS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TACONICS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...CALLED IT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS (INSTEAD OF
CHANCE) SINCE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING. DID RAISE THE POPS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AS THE EASTERLY FLOW IN ENHANCED
ADDING LIFT AND MORE MOISTURE ON THE EASTWARD SIDE OF THE GREENS AND
TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...LESS SO THE WEST SIDE.

WE ALSO LOWERED A FEW TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN ZONES.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO
THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLY WON/T
MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE CAPITAL REGION.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREENS
AND BERKS...60-65 MOST OTHER PLACES. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...LOTS OF CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BUILT
WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AFFECTS
THE REGION...WITH VCSH AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU WHERE PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 011422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1022 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS
PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND IN AN EASTERLY FLOW. THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...AND HAVE MOVED INTO EASTERN NY...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN ZONES.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO
THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING
PROBABLY WON/T MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE CAPITAL
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BUILT
WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AFFECTS
THE REGION...WITH VCSH AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU WHERE PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 011422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1022 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS
PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND IN AN EASTERLY FLOW. THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...AND HAVE MOVED INTO EASTERN NY...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN ZONES.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO
THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING
PROBABLY WON/T MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE CAPITAL
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BUILT
WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AFFECTS
THE REGION...WITH VCSH AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU WHERE PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 011422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1022 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS
PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND IN AN EASTERLY FLOW. THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...AND HAVE MOVED INTO EASTERN NY...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN ZONES.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO
THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING
PROBABLY WON/T MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE CAPITAL
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BUILT
WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AFFECTS
THE REGION...WITH VCSH AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU WHERE PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 011422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1022 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS
PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS
OVER NEW ENGLAND IN AN EASTERLY FLOW. THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...AND HAVE MOVED INTO EASTERN NY...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN ZONES.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO
THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING
PROBABLY WON/T MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE CAPITAL
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BUILT
WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AFFECTS
THE REGION...WITH VCSH AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU WHERE PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 011404
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1004 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
TWO AREAS OF RAINFALL TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING. FOR CT AND THE CT
VALLEY OF MA/NH...TS A FAIRLY STATIONARY DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
CONTINUES TO YIELD MODERATE TO POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
AXIS WILL BEGIN A SLOW MIGRATION TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OTHER IS CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROF
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH CONTINUES TO YIELD MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. EACH OF THESE FEATURES REMAIN IN PLACE
AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE...A WET COOL FALL DAY TO BEGIN OCTOBER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH IN SOME
SPOTS WITHIN THE HEAVIER DEFORMATION BAND...BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS OF A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...EXCEPT MAYBE SE MA
WHERE THE RAIN WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN
DAYTIME TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EAST AND MVFR IN THE CT VALLEY AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH. THIS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO A MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AT BEST...BUT SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR AGAIN WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS
MAY SHOW SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT WITH THE MOST IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR /MAINLY IN THE EAST/ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011404
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1004 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
TWO AREAS OF RAINFALL TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING. FOR CT AND THE CT
VALLEY OF MA/NH...TS A FAIRLY STATIONARY DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
CONTINUES TO YIELD MODERATE TO POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
AXIS WILL BEGIN A SLOW MIGRATION TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OTHER IS CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROF
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH CONTINUES TO YIELD MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. EACH OF THESE FEATURES REMAIN IN PLACE
AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE...A WET COOL FALL DAY TO BEGIN OCTOBER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH IN SOME
SPOTS WITHIN THE HEAVIER DEFORMATION BAND...BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS OF A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...EXCEPT MAYBE SE MA
WHERE THE RAIN WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN
DAYTIME TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EAST AND MVFR IN THE CT VALLEY AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH. THIS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO A MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AT BEST...BUT SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR AGAIN WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS
MAY SHOW SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT WITH THE MOST IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR /MAINLY IN THE EAST/ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011404
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1004 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
TWO AREAS OF RAINFALL TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING. FOR CT AND THE CT
VALLEY OF MA/NH...TS A FAIRLY STATIONARY DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
CONTINUES TO YIELD MODERATE TO POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
AXIS WILL BEGIN A SLOW MIGRATION TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OTHER IS CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROF
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH CONTINUES TO YIELD MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. EACH OF THESE FEATURES REMAIN IN PLACE
AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE...A WET COOL FALL DAY TO BEGIN OCTOBER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH IN SOME
SPOTS WITHIN THE HEAVIER DEFORMATION BAND...BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS OF A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...EXCEPT MAYBE SE MA
WHERE THE RAIN WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN
DAYTIME TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EAST AND MVFR IN THE CT VALLEY AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH. THIS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO A MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AT BEST...BUT SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR AGAIN WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS
MAY SHOW SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT WITH THE MOST IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR /MAINLY IN THE EAST/ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011404
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1004 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
TWO AREAS OF RAINFALL TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING. FOR CT AND THE CT
VALLEY OF MA/NH...TS A FAIRLY STATIONARY DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH
CONTINUES TO YIELD MODERATE TO POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
AXIS WILL BEGIN A SLOW MIGRATION TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OTHER IS CONTINUED MOISTURE FLUX ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROF
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH CONTINUES TO YIELD MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. EACH OF THESE FEATURES REMAIN IN PLACE
AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE...A WET COOL FALL DAY TO BEGIN OCTOBER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH IN SOME
SPOTS WITHIN THE HEAVIER DEFORMATION BAND...BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS OF A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...EXCEPT MAYBE SE MA
WHERE THE RAIN WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN
DAYTIME TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES. STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EAST AND MVFR IN THE CT VALLEY AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH. THIS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO A MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AT BEST...BUT SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR AGAIN WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS
MAY SHOW SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT WITH THE MOST IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR /MAINLY IN THE EAST/ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KALY 011126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
726 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 636 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN PA AND IS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW JERSEY. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ARE STARTING TO REACH INTO EASTERN
NY...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE 08Z 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE AND LATEST RUN OF OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF
SHOW THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN
ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE
DUE TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING PROBABLY WON/T MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN
THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BUILT
WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AFFECTS
THE REGION...WITH VCSH AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU WHERE PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 011126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
726 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 636 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN PA AND IS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW JERSEY. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ARE STARTING TO REACH INTO EASTERN
NY...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE 08Z 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE AND LATEST RUN OF OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF
SHOW THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN
ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE
DUE TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING PROBABLY WON/T MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN
THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BUILT
WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AFFECTS
THE REGION...WITH VCSH AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU WHERE PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 011054
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WITH CORE
MOVING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING
AROUND THE CENTER OF THIS LOW ARE MOVING SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EAST TODAY THIS MOVEMENT
SHOULD BECOME EAST TO WEST. WE HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF LIKELY
POPS AND MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE THE
WET FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIANT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES.  STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EAST AND MVFR IN THE CT VALLEY AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH. THIS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO A MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AT BEST...BUT SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR AGAIN WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS
MAY SHOW SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT WITH THE MOST IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR /MAINLY IN THE EAST/ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 011054
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WITH CORE
MOVING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING
AROUND THE CENTER OF THIS LOW ARE MOVING SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EAST TODAY THIS MOVEMENT
SHOULD BECOME EAST TO WEST. WE HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF LIKELY
POPS AND MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE THE
WET FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF
LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL
MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS
WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIANT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES.  STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EAST AND MVFR IN THE CT VALLEY AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH. THIS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO A MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR AT BEST...BUT SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR AGAIN WITH SUNSET.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS
MAY SHOW SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
NIGHT WITH THE MOST IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR /MAINLY IN THE EAST/ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 011036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 636 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN PA AND IS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW JERSEY. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ARE STARTING TO REACH INTO EASTERN
NY...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE 08Z 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE AND LATEST RUN OF OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF
SHOW THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR EASTERN
ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE
DUE TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING PROBABLY WON/T MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN
THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
BUILT WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTS THE REGION...WITH VCSH ONLY AT KPSF AND KPOU WHERE ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER COULD BE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 010826
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
426 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 426 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PA AND IS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW JERSEY.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ARE MOVING ACROSS SRN VT/BERKSHIRES AND INTO
THE TACONICS THIS MORNING.

THE LATEST 06Z 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE AND THE 06Z RUN OF OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF ALL SHOW THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND AFFECT OUR EASTERN ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS MAKE MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS THE CAPITAL
REGION/HUDSON VALLEY REGION...BUT MOST AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
THERE WILL STAY DRY TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
BUILT WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTS THE REGION...WITH VCSH ONLY AT KPSF AND KPOU WHERE ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER COULD BE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 010826
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
426 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 426 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PA AND IS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW JERSEY.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THESE
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWEST WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ARE MOVING ACROSS SRN VT/BERKSHIRES AND INTO
THE TACONICS THIS MORNING.

THE LATEST 06Z 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE AND THE 06Z RUN OF OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF ALL SHOW THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND AFFECT OUR EASTERN ZONES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER. THE RAIN SHOWERS MAKE MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS THE CAPITAL
REGION/HUDSON VALLEY REGION...BUT MOST AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
THERE WILL STAY DRY TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE AND SFC OBS
SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS AS WELL. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...KEEPING THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY
AREAS /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO THIN OUT...ESP FOR ANY
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF CAPE COD...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
AT 500 HPA. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH 40S IN MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 11 DEGREES
C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS A
LEADING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGH.  THE UPPER IMPULSE GOES
NEGATIVE TILT AND THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS...MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COOLING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT..ALONG WITH WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS INTO THROUGH SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SUNDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF RELATIVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN
MOST OTHER AREAS.

ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND TH SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR OVER
OUR REGION AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF SHOWERS.  ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION...MORE PROXIMATE TO THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...BUT COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEN...HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S THROUGH MONDAY...50S
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
BUILT WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTS THE REGION...WITH VCSH ONLY AT KPSF AND KPOU WHERE ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER COULD BE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO 65 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK FOR SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING QUITE LOW LATELY DUE TO A LACK OF
RECENT RAINFALL.

A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...AND WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 010753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
353 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST WEST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF LIFT THAT
WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL MOIST AIR IN
OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR EARLY
OCTOBER.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS.  HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS
OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP.  WHILE WE CAN/T DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE
THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE
LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST.

USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY
WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION.  RAIN IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALLOWING FOR LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...WILL START TO SEE SOME DRYING...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN.  CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE MOISTURE BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN BREAKING UP BY THE END
OF THE DAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND
60...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WHERE THEY MAY CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFF
THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW
ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS OF RH SHOW DRYING IN MOST LAYERS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN AN INCREASING LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS CLEARING...BUT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DURING FRIDAY.  RH CHARTS FROM THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW CLOUD MOISTURE BEING PUSHED WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AND INTO SOUTHEAST NH/EASTERN
MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SAME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN OVER THIS AREA...SUGGESTING SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE.

WE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
FOG/DRIZZLE AND IN EAST COASTAL AREAS A CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE PCPN.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...AND TEMPS IN THIS SHALLOW LAYER
WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S...COOLEST NEAR THE EAST MASS COAST
AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS
AS IT MOVES IT.  THE TROUGH USES A 110 KNOT JET TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A STRONG THERMAL
GRADIANT ACROSS THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH ALSO TURNS
THE UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES.  STABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LESS THAN
MARGINAL...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 5C/KM OR LESS AND TOTALS ARE
LESS THAN 44.

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SLOWER TIMING ALIGNS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS IN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH WINDSHIFT IN THE CT VALLEY 2 PM TO 8 PM AND
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
CONTOUR HEIGHTS AT 500 MB ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.  THE TROUGH AXIS
EJECTS NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...IFR CIGS LIKELY IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS.  VSBYS
ARE MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
LOCALIZED FOG.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE
BEGINNING IN THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AS RAIN ENDS.

TONIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE
MOST IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...AREAS OF IFR /MAINLY IN THE EAST/ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AREAS OF IFR CIGS MOVE WEST OFF THE OCEAN
INTO EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...IFR CIGS FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS EAST DURING THE
MORNING. VFR FARTHER WEST TO START THE DAY BUT LOWERING TO MVFR AND
SCATTERED IFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND BRINGS
SHOWERS.  WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO WEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KTS BY ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS AND INTO BOSTON
HARBOR AND CAPE COD BAY. ADDED ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
MAINTAIN 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED EASTERN
WATERS SUCH AS MASSACHUSETTS BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MAY
CREATE POOR VSBYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS.  SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 8 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND OTHER EXPOSED WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT STILL ROUGH. SEAS WILL
LINGER AT 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KALY 010529
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 129 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THE MOIST FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS
ALLOWING FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND THESE ARE
STARTING TO SLOWLY MOVE W-NW TOWARDS SOUTHERN VT AND THE
BERKSHIRES. WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THESE
SHOWERS WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR REGION. THE SHOWERS MAY START TO
WORK INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPSTATE NY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. RAIN WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS OF
LATE...ANY RAINFALL IS QUITE BENEFICIAL.

ELSEWHERE...IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH LOW STRATUS BEING
REPORTED IN MANY LOCATIONS. WITH THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS
WON/T DROP OFF TOO MUCH...WITH LOWS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW (WHICH IS SPARKING THE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST) WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW WILL WORK
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPAWN AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO NW
CONNECTICUT WHERE LIKELY POPS CONTINUE ON WED...WITH
CHC POPS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE CATSKILLS
AND CAPITAL REGION. POPS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE AS YOU REACH THE `DACKS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WITH THE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND CLOUDS) VERY WELL. IN
GENERAL...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLEST TEMPERATURES /LOW-MID
60S/ IN SOUTH/EAST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70 MORE
NORTH/WEST WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER.

CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST WITH THE
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS LIGHT EASTERLY. AGAIN...TOOK A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH REGARD
TO THE CLOUDS IMPACTING TEMPERATURES REMAIN. IN GENERAL, THURSDAY
WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WON`T BE
TOO FAR FROM NORMAL -- 40S IN THE COOLER AREAS TO 50S FOR EVERYONE
ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER EVENT IS DURING THIS PERIOD. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH MAINLY ON SATURDAY, AND IN IT`S WAKE
MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. 12Z GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT, SO FOR THE MOST PART I TOOK A BLEND OF GFS AND
EURO. DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN, SO IT WILL BE DRY. RIDGING ALOFT
MEANS IT SHOULD ALSO BE SUNNY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
TOUCHING 70F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS

SATURDAY: PRECIPITATION STARTS COMING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/FIRST
THING SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET WITH
850MB WINDS 40-50KTS. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME VALLEYS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TAPPING SOME DECENT MOISTURE, SO A GOOD 8-12 HOURS OF
RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INITIAL THINKING IS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY: POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY, THANKS TO LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE STREAMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE, THOUGH THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO, THE MORE DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TOWARD 0C BY
LATE IN THE DAY, SO FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
HAPPENING. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE FARTHER
SOUTH/EAST AREAS THANKS TO THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, WITH THE COLDER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S,
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS MORE DIFFERENCES, SO KEPT WITH A MORE BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS SHOWING CHANCE LEVEL POPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS.
AGAIN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SEEMED LIKE
THE BEST WAY TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
BUILT WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTS THE REGION...WITH VCSH ONLY AT KPSF AND KPOU WHERE ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER COULD BE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...MAINLY FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/NASH
HYDROLOGY...KL/NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 010529
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE...ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 129 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THE MOIST FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS
ALLOWING FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND THESE ARE
STARTING TO SLOWLY MOVE W-NW TOWARDS SOUTHERN VT AND THE
BERKSHIRES. WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THESE
SHOWERS WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR REGION. THE SHOWERS MAY START TO
WORK INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPSTATE NY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. RAIN WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS OF
LATE...ANY RAINFALL IS QUITE BENEFICIAL.

ELSEWHERE...IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH LOW STRATUS BEING
REPORTED IN MANY LOCATIONS. WITH THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS
WON/T DROP OFF TOO MUCH...WITH LOWS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW (WHICH IS SPARKING THE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST) WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW WILL WORK
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPAWN AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO NW
CONNECTICUT WHERE LIKELY POPS CONTINUE ON WED...WITH
CHC POPS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE CATSKILLS
AND CAPITAL REGION. POPS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE AS YOU REACH THE `DACKS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WITH THE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND CLOUDS) VERY WELL. IN
GENERAL...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLEST TEMPERATURES /LOW-MID
60S/ IN SOUTH/EAST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70 MORE
NORTH/WEST WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER.

CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST WITH THE
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS LIGHT EASTERLY. AGAIN...TOOK A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH REGARD
TO THE CLOUDS IMPACTING TEMPERATURES REMAIN. IN GENERAL, THURSDAY
WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WON`T BE
TOO FAR FROM NORMAL -- 40S IN THE COOLER AREAS TO 50S FOR EVERYONE
ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN WEATHER EVENT IS DURING THIS PERIOD. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH MAINLY ON SATURDAY, AND IN IT`S WAKE
MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. 12Z GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT, SO FOR THE MOST PART I TOOK A BLEND OF GFS AND
EURO. DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN, SO IT WILL BE DRY. RIDGING ALOFT
MEANS IT SHOULD ALSO BE SUNNY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
TOUCHING 70F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS

SATURDAY: PRECIPITATION STARTS COMING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/FIRST
THING SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET WITH
850MB WINDS 40-50KTS. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME VALLEYS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TAPPING SOME DECENT MOISTURE, SO A GOOD 8-12 HOURS OF
RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INITIAL THINKING IS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY: POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY, THANKS TO LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE STREAMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE, THOUGH THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO, THE MORE DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TOWARD 0C BY
LATE IN THE DAY, SO FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
HAPPENING. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE FARTHER
SOUTH/EAST AREAS THANKS TO THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, WITH THE COLDER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S,
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS MORE DIFFERENCES, SO KEPT WITH A MORE BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS SHOWING CHANCE LEVEL POPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS.
AGAIN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SEEMED LIKE
THE BEST WAY TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST...MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
BUILT WEST INTO THE REGION...AND BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR...MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTS THE REGION...WITH VCSH ONLY AT KPSF AND KPOU WHERE ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER COULD BE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KALB AND KGFL...WHERE THE LEAST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE. VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KPSF AND KPOU.
BY EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
CONTINUE MAINLY VFR.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...MAINLY FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/NASH
HYDROLOGY...KL/NASH






000
FXUS61 KBOX 010205
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...REDUCED
POPS SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WHILE WAITING
FOR THE SHOWERS ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA TO MOVE EASTWARD
WITH THE UPPER LOW. WHILE THERE IS STILL THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE SHOWERS...EXPECT INSTABILITY TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SO ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. OTHER THAN THE CHANGES TO POPS AND WEATHER...MADE ONLY
MINOR UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...EXPECT INVERTED TROF
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES AND THE E MOVING UPPER CUTOFF TO
BEGIN TO ENHANCE. NOTE INCREASE IN BAROCLINICITY AND DEFORMATION
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO H4 OR SO...SUSPECT INCREASE IN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SUCH THAT IT/S LIKELY RAINING AT OVER MUCH OF THE
BOX CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOW PRES CONTINUES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
BENCHMARK...A MODERATE INVERTED TROF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES
BETTER F-GEN AND EVEN A DEFORMATION AXIS FOR DEEPER LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO COMBINED WITH MODEST ELY LLJ WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT H85 AROUND 25-30 KT /2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
AND PWATS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...ITS NOT
UNTIL THE SFC OCEAN SYSTEM PULLS E LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE. MANY AREAS MAY RECEIVE SOME OF THE
STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL THEY HAVE NEEDED FOR SOME TIME NOW WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BANDING
POTENTIAL WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED THANKS TO K-VALUES IN THE LOW
30S...BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP. SO
WILL AT LEAST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
1.0+ INCHES. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE SE MA...WHERE
THE INVERTED TROF HOLDS IN THE LONGEST...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IT IS OBSERVED INLAND...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN E COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ENHANCES UPSLOPE.

OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MANY
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM W TO E THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI AND SE MA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH E COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND LOW
LVL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG
AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS REMAIN
LIKELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY
* RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MID
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GT LAKES BY SAT. A PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
NEW ENG LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
RAIN WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND GT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND FRONT APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONT AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM SE NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOCLDY SKIES DURING
THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...THEN BECOMING PTSUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH NE FLOW... TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD LEADING TO
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BACKING IN
FROM THE OCEAN ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE STORM WHICH MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE OUTER CAPE.  GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING THIS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CLOUDS TO THE EAST.  WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...COOLEST E MA COAST.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT INTO SNE LATE
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO SNE WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS BULK OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING
SAT...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVENING ACROSS E NEW ENG.

SUNDAY...
FRONT IS OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SUNSHINE AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND WILL
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT
WILL BE. EVEN FASTER GFS IS MAINLY DRY FOR MON SO WE ARE GOING WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TUE AS
PROGRESSIVE GFS MOVES THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE WHILE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF IS WET.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP
AS WELL TONIGHT IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN. POSSIBILITY
OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS. CIGS REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS
TO LIFT TO MAINLY MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE
EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS BREAK UP.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT
NIGHT.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

N-NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO TOMORROW...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS RI/BI
SOUND FOR THESE WINDS...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE COD FOR LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING SWELL ALONE...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 7-8FT
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT/S LIKELY THAT THESE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU INTO FRI...EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THU MORNING OVER SE
WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED NE WINDS FRI BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN SCA.  HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI OVER OUTER WATERS.

SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SAT NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.  VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SUN...WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KT IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KALY 010155
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
955 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. TYPICAL FALL
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING. HOWEVER...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ARE
DRIFTING NORTHWEST. WE EXPECT SOME OF THIS RAIN TO REACH THE
BERKSHIRES...SE VT AND NW CT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPANDING
NORTH AND WEST INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SE CATSKILLS...AND
POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
AS SUCH...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN THESE AREAS...WITH LIKELIES
TO THE S/E...AND CHC POPS EXTENDING TO THE CAPITAL REGION. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...AS CLOUDS
PREVAIL DESPITE SOME BREAKS INITIALLY.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW (WHICH IS SPARKING THE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST) WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW WILL WORK
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPAWN AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO NW
CONNECTICUT WHERE LIKELY POPS CONTINUE ON WED...WITH
CHC POPS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE CATSKILLS
AND CAPITAL REGION. POPS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE AS YOU REACH THE `DACKS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WITH THE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND CLOUDS) VERY WELL. IN
GENERAL...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLEST TEMPERATURES /LOW-MID
60S/ IN SOUTH/EAST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70 MORE
NORTH/WEST WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AT LEAST WITH THE SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT EASTERLY. AGAIN, TOOK A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE CLOUDS IMPACTING TEMPERATURES REMAIN.
IN GENERAL, THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS WON`T BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL -- 40S IN THE COOLER
AREAS TO 50S FOR EVERYONE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...MAIN WEATHER EVENT IS DURING THIS PERIOD. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH MAINLY ON SATURDAY,
AND IN IT`S WAKE MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. 12Z
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, SO FOR THE MOST PART I TOOK A
BLEND OF GFS AND EURO. DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN, SO IT WILL BE DRY. RIDGING ALOFT
MEANS IT SHOULD ALSO BE SUNNY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
TOUCHING 70F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS

SATURDAY: PRECIPITATION STARTS COMING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/FIRST
THING SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET WITH
850MB WINDS 40-50KTS. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME VALLEYS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TAPPING SOME DECENT MOISTURE, SO A GOOD 8-12 HOURS OF
RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INITIAL THINKING IS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY: POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY, THANKS TO LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE STREAMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE, THOUGH THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO, THE MORE DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TOWARD 0C BY
LATE IN THE DAY, SO FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
HAPPENING. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE FARTHER
SOUTH/EAST AREAS THANKS TO THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, WITH THE COLDER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S,
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS MORE DIFFERENCES, SO KEPT WITH A MORE BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS SHOWING CHANCE LEVEL POPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS.
AGAIN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SEEMED LIKE
THE BEST WAY TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH SOME
POCKETS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPSF. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE MAY ALSO REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE AT KPSF
AND POSSIBLY KPOU TOWARD 12Z/WED.

ON WED...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE. VSBYS SHOULD
RANGE FROM VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR AT KPSF/KPOU AND POSSIBLY
KALB IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
VFR AT KGFL WHERE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE E TO NE AT LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...TRENDING INTO THE NE TO N ON WED AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...MAINLY FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/NASH
NEAR TERM...KL/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KL/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...KL/NASH
HYDROLOGY...KL/NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 010003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
803 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. TYPICAL FALL
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCHOHARIE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP.

FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...WE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD/EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY SPREADING AS
FAR N AND W AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
CAPITAL REGION BY DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW (WHICH IS SPARKING THE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST) WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW WILL WORK
WITH THE MOISTURE TO SPAWN AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO NW
CONNECTICUT WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED ON WED...WITH
CHC POPS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE CATSKILLS
AND CAPITAL REGION. POPS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE AS YOU REACH THE `DACKS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WITH THE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND CLOUDS) VERY WELL. IN
GENERAL...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLEST TEMPERATURES /LOW-MID
60S/ IN SOUTH/EAST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70 MORE
NORTH/WEST WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AT LEAST WITH THE SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT EASTERLY. AGAIN, TOOK A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE CLOUDS IMPACTING TEMPERATURES REMAIN.
IN GENERAL, THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS WON`T BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL -- 40S IN THE COOLER
AREAS TO 50S FOR EVERYONE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...MAIN WEATHER EVENT IS DURING THIS PERIOD. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH MAINLY ON SATURDAY,
AND IN IT`S WAKE MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. 12Z
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, SO FOR THE MOST PART I TOOK A
BLEND OF GFS AND EURO. DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN, SO IT WILL BE DRY. RIDGING ALOFT
MEANS IT SHOULD ALSO BE SUNNY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
TOUCHING 70F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS

SATURDAY: PRECIPITATION STARTS COMING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/FIRST
THING SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET WITH
850MB WINDS 40-50KTS. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME VALLEYS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TAPPING SOME DECENT MOISTURE, SO A GOOD 8-12 HOURS OF
RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INITIAL THINKING IS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY: POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY, THANKS TO LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE STREAMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE, THOUGH THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO, THE MORE DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TOWARD 0C BY
LATE IN THE DAY, SO FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
HAPPENING. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE FARTHER
SOUTH/EAST AREAS THANKS TO THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, WITH THE COLDER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S,
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS MORE DIFFERENCES, SO KEPT WITH A MORE BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS SHOWING CHANCE LEVEL POPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS.
AGAIN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SEEMED LIKE
THE BEST WAY TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH SOME
POCKETS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPSF. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE MAY ALSO REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE AT KPSF
AND POSSIBLY KPOU TOWARD 12Z/WED.

ON WED...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE. VSBYS SHOULD
RANGE FROM VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR AT KPSF/KPOU AND POSSIBLY
KALB IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
VFR AT KGFL WHERE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE E TO NE AT LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...TRENDING INTO THE NE TO N ON WED AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...MAINLY FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/NASH
NEAR TERM...KL/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KL/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...KL/NASH
HYDROLOGY...KL/NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 010003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
803 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. TYPICAL FALL
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCHOHARIE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP.

FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...WE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD/EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY SPREADING AS
FAR N AND W AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
CAPITAL REGION BY DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW (WHICH IS SPARKING THE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST) WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW WILL WORK
WITH THE MOISTURE TO SPAWN AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO NW
CONNECTICUT WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED ON WED...WITH
CHC POPS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE CATSKILLS
AND CAPITAL REGION. POPS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE AS YOU REACH THE `DACKS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WITH THE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND CLOUDS) VERY WELL. IN
GENERAL...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLEST TEMPERATURES /LOW-MID
60S/ IN SOUTH/EAST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70 MORE
NORTH/WEST WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AT LEAST WITH THE SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT EASTERLY. AGAIN, TOOK A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE CLOUDS IMPACTING TEMPERATURES REMAIN.
IN GENERAL, THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS WON`T BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL -- 40S IN THE COOLER
AREAS TO 50S FOR EVERYONE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...MAIN WEATHER EVENT IS DURING THIS PERIOD. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH MAINLY ON SATURDAY,
AND IN IT`S WAKE MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. 12Z
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, SO FOR THE MOST PART I TOOK A
BLEND OF GFS AND EURO. DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN, SO IT WILL BE DRY. RIDGING ALOFT
MEANS IT SHOULD ALSO BE SUNNY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
TOUCHING 70F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS

SATURDAY: PRECIPITATION STARTS COMING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/FIRST
THING SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET WITH
850MB WINDS 40-50KTS. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME VALLEYS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TAPPING SOME DECENT MOISTURE, SO A GOOD 8-12 HOURS OF
RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INITIAL THINKING IS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY: POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY, THANKS TO LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE STREAMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE, THOUGH THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO, THE MORE DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TOWARD 0C BY
LATE IN THE DAY, SO FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
HAPPENING. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE FARTHER
SOUTH/EAST AREAS THANKS TO THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, WITH THE COLDER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S,
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS MORE DIFFERENCES, SO KEPT WITH A MORE BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS SHOWING CHANCE LEVEL POPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS.
AGAIN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SEEMED LIKE
THE BEST WAY TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH SOME
POCKETS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPSF. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE MAY ALSO REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE AT KPSF
AND POSSIBLY KPOU TOWARD 12Z/WED.

ON WED...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE. VSBYS SHOULD
RANGE FROM VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR AT KPSF/KPOU AND POSSIBLY
KALB IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
VFR AT KGFL WHERE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE E TO NE AT LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...TRENDING INTO THE NE TO N ON WED AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...MAINLY FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/NASH
NEAR TERM...KL/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KL/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...KL/NASH
HYDROLOGY...KL/NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 010003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
803 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. TYPICAL FALL
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCHOHARIE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP.

FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...WE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD/EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY SPREADING AS
FAR N AND W AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
CAPITAL REGION BY DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW (WHICH IS SPARKING THE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST) WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW WILL WORK
WITH THE MOISTURE TO SPAWN AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO NW
CONNECTICUT WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED ON WED...WITH
CHC POPS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE CATSKILLS
AND CAPITAL REGION. POPS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE AS YOU REACH THE `DACKS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WITH THE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND CLOUDS) VERY WELL. IN
GENERAL...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLEST TEMPERATURES /LOW-MID
60S/ IN SOUTH/EAST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70 MORE
NORTH/WEST WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AT LEAST WITH THE SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT EASTERLY. AGAIN, TOOK A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE CLOUDS IMPACTING TEMPERATURES REMAIN.
IN GENERAL, THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS WON`T BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL -- 40S IN THE COOLER
AREAS TO 50S FOR EVERYONE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...MAIN WEATHER EVENT IS DURING THIS PERIOD. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH MAINLY ON SATURDAY,
AND IN IT`S WAKE MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. 12Z
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, SO FOR THE MOST PART I TOOK A
BLEND OF GFS AND EURO. DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN, SO IT WILL BE DRY. RIDGING ALOFT
MEANS IT SHOULD ALSO BE SUNNY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
TOUCHING 70F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS

SATURDAY: PRECIPITATION STARTS COMING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/FIRST
THING SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET WITH
850MB WINDS 40-50KTS. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME VALLEYS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TAPPING SOME DECENT MOISTURE, SO A GOOD 8-12 HOURS OF
RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INITIAL THINKING IS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY: POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY, THANKS TO LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE STREAMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE, THOUGH THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO, THE MORE DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TOWARD 0C BY
LATE IN THE DAY, SO FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
HAPPENING. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE FARTHER
SOUTH/EAST AREAS THANKS TO THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, WITH THE COLDER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S,
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS MORE DIFFERENCES, SO KEPT WITH A MORE BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS SHOWING CHANCE LEVEL POPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS.
AGAIN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SEEMED LIKE
THE BEST WAY TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH SOME
POCKETS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPSF. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE MAY ALSO REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE AT KPSF
AND POSSIBLY KPOU TOWARD 12Z/WED.

ON WED...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE. VSBYS SHOULD
RANGE FROM VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR AT KPSF/KPOU AND POSSIBLY
KALB IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
VFR AT KGFL WHERE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE E TO NE AT LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...TRENDING INTO THE NE TO N ON WED AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...MAINLY FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/NASH
NEAR TERM...KL/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KL/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...KL/NASH
HYDROLOGY...KL/NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 010003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
803 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. TYPICAL FALL
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCHOHARIE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP.

FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...WE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD/EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY SPREADING AS
FAR N AND W AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
CAPITAL REGION BY DAYBREAK.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW (WHICH IS SPARKING THE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST) WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW WILL WORK
WITH THE MOISTURE TO SPAWN AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO NW
CONNECTICUT WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED ON WED...WITH
CHC POPS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE CATSKILLS
AND CAPITAL REGION. POPS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE AS YOU REACH THE `DACKS.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WITH THE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND CLOUDS) VERY WELL. IN
GENERAL...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLEST TEMPERATURES /LOW-MID
60S/ IN SOUTH/EAST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70 MORE
NORTH/WEST WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AT LEAST WITH THE SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT EASTERLY. AGAIN, TOOK A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE CLOUDS IMPACTING TEMPERATURES REMAIN.
IN GENERAL, THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS WON`T BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL -- 40S IN THE COOLER
AREAS TO 50S FOR EVERYONE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...MAIN WEATHER EVENT IS DURING THIS PERIOD. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH MAINLY ON SATURDAY,
AND IN IT`S WAKE MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. 12Z
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, SO FOR THE MOST PART I TOOK A
BLEND OF GFS AND EURO. DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN, SO IT WILL BE DRY. RIDGING ALOFT
MEANS IT SHOULD ALSO BE SUNNY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
TOUCHING 70F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS

SATURDAY: PRECIPITATION STARTS COMING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/FIRST
THING SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET WITH
850MB WINDS 40-50KTS. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME VALLEYS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TAPPING SOME DECENT MOISTURE, SO A GOOD 8-12 HOURS OF
RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INITIAL THINKING IS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY: POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY, THANKS TO LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE STREAMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE, THOUGH THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO, THE MORE DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TOWARD 0C BY
LATE IN THE DAY, SO FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
HAPPENING. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE FARTHER
SOUTH/EAST AREAS THANKS TO THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, WITH THE COLDER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S,
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS MORE DIFFERENCES, SO KEPT WITH A MORE BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS SHOWING CHANCE LEVEL POPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS.
AGAIN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SEEMED LIKE
THE BEST WAY TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH SOME
POCKETS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KPSF. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE MAY ALSO REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE AT KPSF
AND POSSIBLY KPOU TOWARD 12Z/WED.

ON WED...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE. VSBYS SHOULD
RANGE FROM VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR AT KPSF/KPOU AND POSSIBLY
KALB IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
VFR AT KGFL WHERE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE E TO NE AT LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...TRENDING INTO THE NE TO N ON WED AT GENERALLY 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...MAINLY FOR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/NASH
NEAR TERM...KL/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KL/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...KL/NASH
HYDROLOGY...KL/NASH







000
FXUS61 KBOX 302309
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
709 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS DIMINISHING ACROSS SNE AS WV LOOP SHOWS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN ALL THE
N-NE FLOW OFF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE...WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH ASSOCD COLD POOL
HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND W NY.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT SO THUNDER NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR SNE...BUT WE EXPECT RAIN TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW APPROACHES SNE FROM THE
WEST AND MID LEVEL OMEGA INCREASES ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...EXPECT INVERTED TROF
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES AND THE E MOVING UPPER CUTOFF TO
BEGIN TO ENHANCE. NOTE INCREASE IN BAROCLINICITY AND DEFORMATION
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO H4 OR SO...SUSPECT INCREASE IN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SUCH THAT IT/S LIKELY RAINING AT OVER MUCH OF THE
BOX CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOW PRES CONTINUES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
BENCHMARK...A MODERATE INVERTED TROF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES
BETTER F-GEN AND EVEN A DEFORMATION AXIS FOR DEEPER LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO COMBINED WITH MODEST ELY LLJ WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT H85 AROUND 25-30 KT /2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
AND PWATS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...ITS NOT
UNTIL THE SFC OCEAN SYSTEM PULLS E LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE. MANY AREAS MAY RECEIVE SOME OF THE
STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL THEY HAVE NEEDED FOR SOME TIME NOW WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BANDING
POTENTIAL WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED THANKS TO K-VALUES IN THE LOW
30S...BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP. SO
WILL AT LEAST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
1.0+ INCHES. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE SE MA...WHERE
THE INVERTED TROF HOLDS IN THE LONGEST...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IT IS OBSERVED INLAND...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN E COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ENHANCES UPSLOPE.

OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MANY
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM W TO E THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI AND SE MA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH E COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND LOW
LVL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG
AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS REMAIN
LIKELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY
* RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MID
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GT LAKES BY SAT. A PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
NEW ENG LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
RAIN WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND GT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND FRONT APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONT AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM SE NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOCLDY SKIES DURING
THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...THEN BECOMING PTSUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH NE FLOW... TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD LEADING TO
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BACKING IN
FROM THE OCEAN ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE STORM WHICH MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE OUTER CAPE.  GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING THIS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CLOUDS TO THE EAST.  WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...COOLEST E MA COAST.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT INTO SNE LATE
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO SNE WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS BULK OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING
SAT...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVENING ACROSS E NEW ENG.

SUNDAY...
FRONT IS OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SUNSHINE AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND WILL
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT
WILL BE. EVEN FASTER GFS IS MAINLY DRY FOR MON SO WE ARE GOING WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TUE AS
PROGRESSIVE GFS MOVES THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE WHILE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF IS WET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP
AS WELL TONIGHT IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN. POSSIBILITY
OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS. CIGS REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS
TO LIFT TO MAINLY MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE
EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS BREAK UP.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT
NIGHT.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

N-NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO TOMORROW...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS RI/BI
SOUND FOR THESE WINDS...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE COD FOR LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING SWELL ALONE...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 7-8FT
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT/S LIKELY THAT THESE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU INTO FRI...EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THU MORNING OVER SE
WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED NE WINDS FRI BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN SCA.  HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI OVER OUTER WATERS.

SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SAT NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.  VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SUN...WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KT IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302309
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
709 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS DIMINISHING ACROSS SNE AS WV LOOP SHOWS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN ALL THE
N-NE FLOW OFF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE...WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH ASSOCD COLD POOL
HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND W NY.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT SO THUNDER NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR SNE...BUT WE EXPECT RAIN TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW APPROACHES SNE FROM THE
WEST AND MID LEVEL OMEGA INCREASES ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...EXPECT INVERTED TROF
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES AND THE E MOVING UPPER CUTOFF TO
BEGIN TO ENHANCE. NOTE INCREASE IN BAROCLINICITY AND DEFORMATION
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO H4 OR SO...SUSPECT INCREASE IN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SUCH THAT IT/S LIKELY RAINING AT OVER MUCH OF THE
BOX CWA BY 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOW PRES CONTINUES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
BENCHMARK...A MODERATE INVERTED TROF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES
BETTER F-GEN AND EVEN A DEFORMATION AXIS FOR DEEPER LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO COMBINED WITH MODEST ELY LLJ WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT H85 AROUND 25-30 KT /2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
AND PWATS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...ITS NOT
UNTIL THE SFC OCEAN SYSTEM PULLS E LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE. MANY AREAS MAY RECEIVE SOME OF THE
STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL THEY HAVE NEEDED FOR SOME TIME NOW WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BANDING
POTENTIAL WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED THANKS TO K-VALUES IN THE LOW
30S...BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP. SO
WILL AT LEAST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
1.0+ INCHES. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE SE MA...WHERE
THE INVERTED TROF HOLDS IN THE LONGEST...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IT IS OBSERVED INLAND...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN E COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ENHANCES UPSLOPE.

OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MANY
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM W TO E THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI AND SE MA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH E COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND LOW
LVL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG
AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS REMAIN
LIKELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY
* RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MID
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GT LAKES BY SAT. A PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
NEW ENG LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
RAIN WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND GT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND FRONT APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONT AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM SE NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOCLDY SKIES DURING
THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...THEN BECOMING PTSUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH NE FLOW... TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD LEADING TO
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BACKING IN
FROM THE OCEAN ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE STORM WHICH MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE OUTER CAPE.  GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING THIS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CLOUDS TO THE EAST.  WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...COOLEST E MA COAST.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT INTO SNE LATE
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO SNE WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS BULK OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING
SAT...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVENING ACROSS E NEW ENG.

SUNDAY...
FRONT IS OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SUNSHINE AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND WILL
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT
WILL BE. EVEN FASTER GFS IS MAINLY DRY FOR MON SO WE ARE GOING WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TUE AS
PROGRESSIVE GFS MOVES THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE WHILE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF IS WET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP
AS WELL TONIGHT IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN. POSSIBILITY
OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS. CIGS REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS
TO LIFT TO MAINLY MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE
EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS BREAK UP.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT
NIGHT.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

N-NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO TOMORROW...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS RI/BI
SOUND FOR THESE WINDS...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE COD FOR LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING SWELL ALONE...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 7-8FT
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT/S LIKELY THAT THESE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU INTO FRI...EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THU MORNING OVER SE
WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED NE WINDS FRI BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN SCA.  HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI OVER OUTER WATERS.

SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SAT NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.  VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SUN...WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KT IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KALY 302017
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
417 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. TYPICAL FALL
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...RADARS SHOWING A FEW SMALL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS, ABOUT WHERE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE FURTHER TO THE
WEST OUT TOWARD BINGHAMTON. OVERALL FLOW IS PRETTY WEAK, SO THESE
SHOWERS WON`T MOVE MUCH -- AND I EXPECT THEM TO FADE AWAY SHORTLY
AS WE`VE ALREADY PAST OUR PEAK HEATING TIME. STILL A BUNCH OF LOW
CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACK DOOR FRONT AND MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. STILL EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO PROGRESS A BIT MORE TO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER, STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW (WHICH IS
SPARKING THE CONVECTION FARTHER WEST) WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL WORK WITH THE MOISTURE TO SPAWN SCATTERED SHOWERS, PRIMARILY
FOR SOUTHERN & EASTER SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE PAINTED
IN 30-50% POPS FROM THE BERKSHIRES INTO NW CONNECTICUT AND THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. POPS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
FURTHER NORTHWEST -- BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE AS YOU REACH THE `DACKS.

HONESTLY, NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. I
TOOK A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, BUT WITH THE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND CLOUDS) VERY WELL, THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS MAY END UP BEING NOT THE GREATEST. IN
GENERAL, WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLEST TEMPERATURES (LOW-MID 60S)
IN SOUTH/EAST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70 MORE
NORTH/WEST WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AT LEAST WITH THE SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT EASTERLY. AGAIN, TOOK A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AND CAVEATES WITH REGARD TO THE CLOUDS IMPACTING
TEMPERATURES REMAIN. IN GENERAL, THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN
THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WON`T BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL
-- 40S IN THE COOLER AREAS TO 50S FOR EVERYONE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...MAIN WEATHER EVENT IS DURING THIS PERIOD. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH MAINLY ON SATURDAY,
AND IN IT`S WAKE MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. 12Z
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, SO FOR THE MOST PART I TOOK A
BLEND OF GFS AND EURO. DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN, SO IT WILL BE DRY. RIDGING ALOFT
MEANS IT SHOULD ALSO BE SUNNY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
TOUCHING 70F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS

SATURDAY: PRECIPITATION STARTS COMING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/FIRST
THING SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET WITH
850MB WINDS 40-50KTS. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME VALLEYS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TAPPING SOME DECENT MOISTURE, SO A GOOD 8-12 HOURS OF
RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INITIAL THINKING IS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY: POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY, THANKS TO LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE STREAMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE, THOUGH THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO, THE MORE DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TOWARD 0C BY
LATE IN THE DAY, SO FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
HAPPENING. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE FARTHER
SOUTH/EAST AREAS THANKS TO THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, WITH THE COLDER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S,
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS MORE DIFFERENCES, SO KEPT WITH A MORE BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS SHOWING CHANCE LEVEL POPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS.
AGAIN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SEEMED LIKE
THE BEST WAY TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
(DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS/CEILINGS). SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WITH SUNSET EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND FILLING IN
THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ANTICIPATE MVFR, IF NOT IFR,
CEILINGS TO BE COMMON AFTER 06Z. MAY EVEN AGAIN SEE FOG DEVELOPING
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND
POU. AT THIS POINT JUST MENTIONED VCSH SINCE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL. COULD
SEE PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS ALB AND PSF, BUT KEPT THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT AT THIS TIME SINCE THE CHANCES ARE LOW.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AGAIN, THE IFR CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 14/15Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY..
18Z WED TO 00Z FRI...MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
00Z FRI TO 12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR
12Z SAT ONWARD...MVFR WITH SHOWERS. STRONG/GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
HYDROLOGY...NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 302017
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
417 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. TYPICAL FALL
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...RADARS SHOWING A FEW SMALL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS, ABOUT WHERE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE FURTHER TO THE
WEST OUT TOWARD BINGHAMTON. OVERALL FLOW IS PRETTY WEAK, SO THESE
SHOWERS WON`T MOVE MUCH -- AND I EXPECT THEM TO FADE AWAY SHORTLY
AS WE`VE ALREADY PAST OUR PEAK HEATING TIME. STILL A BUNCH OF LOW
CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACK DOOR FRONT AND MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. STILL EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO PROGRESS A BIT MORE TO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER, STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW (WHICH IS
SPARKING THE CONVECTION FARTHER WEST) WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL WORK WITH THE MOISTURE TO SPAWN SCATTERED SHOWERS, PRIMARILY
FOR SOUTHERN & EASTER SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE PAINTED
IN 30-50% POPS FROM THE BERKSHIRES INTO NW CONNECTICUT AND THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. POPS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
FURTHER NORTHWEST -- BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE AS YOU REACH THE `DACKS.

HONESTLY, NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. I
TOOK A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, BUT WITH THE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND CLOUDS) VERY WELL, THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS MAY END UP BEING NOT THE GREATEST. IN
GENERAL, WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLEST TEMPERATURES (LOW-MID 60S)
IN SOUTH/EAST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70 MORE
NORTH/WEST WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AT LEAST WITH THE SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT EASTERLY. AGAIN, TOOK A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AND CAVEATES WITH REGARD TO THE CLOUDS IMPACTING
TEMPERATURES REMAIN. IN GENERAL, THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN
THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WON`T BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL
-- 40S IN THE COOLER AREAS TO 50S FOR EVERYONE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...MAIN WEATHER EVENT IS DURING THIS PERIOD. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH MAINLY ON SATURDAY,
AND IN IT`S WAKE MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. 12Z
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, SO FOR THE MOST PART I TOOK A
BLEND OF GFS AND EURO. DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN, SO IT WILL BE DRY. RIDGING ALOFT
MEANS IT SHOULD ALSO BE SUNNY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
TOUCHING 70F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS

SATURDAY: PRECIPITATION STARTS COMING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/FIRST
THING SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET WITH
850MB WINDS 40-50KTS. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME VALLEYS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TAPPING SOME DECENT MOISTURE, SO A GOOD 8-12 HOURS OF
RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INITIAL THINKING IS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY: POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY, THANKS TO LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE STREAMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE, THOUGH THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO, THE MORE DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TOWARD 0C BY
LATE IN THE DAY, SO FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
HAPPENING. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE FARTHER
SOUTH/EAST AREAS THANKS TO THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, WITH THE COLDER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S,
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS MORE DIFFERENCES, SO KEPT WITH A MORE BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS SHOWING CHANCE LEVEL POPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS.
AGAIN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SEEMED LIKE
THE BEST WAY TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
(DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS/CEILINGS). SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WITH SUNSET EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND FILLING IN
THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ANTICIPATE MVFR, IF NOT IFR,
CEILINGS TO BE COMMON AFTER 06Z. MAY EVEN AGAIN SEE FOG DEVELOPING
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND
POU. AT THIS POINT JUST MENTIONED VCSH SINCE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL. COULD
SEE PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS ALB AND PSF, BUT KEPT THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT AT THIS TIME SINCE THE CHANCES ARE LOW.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AGAIN, THE IFR CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 14/15Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY..
18Z WED TO 00Z FRI...MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
00Z FRI TO 12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR
12Z SAT ONWARD...MVFR WITH SHOWERS. STRONG/GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
HYDROLOGY...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBOX 302016
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF LIGHT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MOD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT E. THIS IS THE
EXPECTED TREND WITH TIME AS OCEAN LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND BEGINS PULLING MOISTURE
TO THE E AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN ALL
THE N-NE FLOW OFF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE...THE CLOUDY DAMP
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO MIX
OF FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THIS
FACT...EXPECT MINS TO BE NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM CURRENT HIGH
TEMPS...ONLY DIPPING BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 50S WITH MAYBE A SPOT
UPPER 40F.

THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...EXPECT INVERTED TROF
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES AND THE E MOVING UPPER CUTOFF TO
BEGIN TO ENHANCE. NOTE INCREASE IN BAROCLINICITY AND DEFORMATION
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO H4 OR SO...SUSPECT INCREASE IN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SUCH THAT IT/S LIKELY RAINING AT OVER MUCH OF THE
BOX CWA BY 12Z. MORE ON THIS FOR IN THE TOMORROW DISCUSSION
BELOW. HAVE POPS INCREASING AFTER 06Z TO LIKELY...BUT IT/S LIKELY
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOW PRES CONTINUES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
BENCHMARK...A MODERATE INVERTED TROF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES
BETTER F-GEN AND EVEN A DEFORMATION AXIS FOR DEEPER LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO COMBINED WITH MODEST ELY LLJ WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT H85 AROUND 25-30 KT /2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
AND PWATS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...ITS NOT
UNTIL THE SFC OCEAN SYSTEM PULLS E LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE. MANY AREAS MAY RECEIVE SOME OF THE
STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL THEY HAVE NEEDED FOR SOME TIME NOW WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BANDING
POTENTIAL WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED THANKS TO K-VALUES IN THE LOW
30S...BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP. SO
WILL AT LEAST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
1.0+ INCHES. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE SE MA...WHERE
THE INVERTED TROF HOLDS IN THE LONGEST...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IT IS OBSERVED INLAND...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN E COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ENHANCES UPSLOPE.

OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MANY
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM W TO E THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI AND SE MA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH E COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND LOW
LVL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG
AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS REMAIN
LIKELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY
* RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MID
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GT LAKES BY SAT. A PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
NEW ENG LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
RAIN WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND GT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND FRONT APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONT AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM SE NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOCLDY SKIES DURING
THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...THEN BECOMING PTSUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH NE FLOW... TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD LEADING TO
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BACKING IN
FROM THE OCEAN ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE STORM WHICH MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE OUTER CAPE.  GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING THIS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CLOUDS TO THE EAST.  WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...COOLEST E MA COAST.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT INTO SNE LATE
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO SNE WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS BULK OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING
SAT...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVENING ACROSS E NEW ENG.

SUNDAY...
FRONT IS OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SUNSHINE AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND WILL
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT
WILL BE. EVEN FASTER GFS IS MAINLY DRY FOR MON SO WE ARE GOING WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TUE AS
PROGRESSIVE GFS MOVES THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE WHILE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF IS WET.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR IN EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS
IS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT AROUND 23Z AND AFTER
VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP AS WELL IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN.
POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. CIGS
REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS TO LIFT TO MAINLY
MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS BREAK UP.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT
NIGHT.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

N-NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO TOMORROW...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS RI/BI
SOUND FOR THESE WINDS...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE COD FOR LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING SWELL ALONE...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 7-8FT
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT/S LIKELY THAT THESE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU INTO FRI...EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THU MORNING OVER SE
WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED NE WINDS FRI BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN SCA.  HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI OVER OUTER WATERS.

SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SAT NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.  VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SUN...WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KT IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302016
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMORROW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BAND OF LIGHT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MOD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT E. THIS IS THE
EXPECTED TREND WITH TIME AS OCEAN LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND BEGINS PULLING MOISTURE
TO THE E AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN ALL
THE N-NE FLOW OFF THE COOL GULF OF MAINE...THE CLOUDY DAMP
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO MIX
OF FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THIS
FACT...EXPECT MINS TO BE NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM CURRENT HIGH
TEMPS...ONLY DIPPING BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 50S WITH MAYBE A SPOT
UPPER 40F.

THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER...EXPECT INVERTED TROF
BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES AND THE E MOVING UPPER CUTOFF TO
BEGIN TO ENHANCE. NOTE INCREASE IN BAROCLINICITY AND DEFORMATION
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SFC TO H4 OR SO...SUSPECT INCREASE IN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...SUCH THAT IT/S LIKELY RAINING AT OVER MUCH OF THE
BOX CWA BY 12Z. MORE ON THIS FOR IN THE TOMORROW DISCUSSION
BELOW. HAVE POPS INCREASING AFTER 06Z TO LIKELY...BUT IT/S LIKELY
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS UPPER LVL CUTOFF SHIFTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOW PRES CONTINUES WELL TO THE SE OF THE
BENCHMARK...A MODERATE INVERTED TROF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES
BETTER F-GEN AND EVEN A DEFORMATION AXIS FOR DEEPER LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO COMBINED WITH MODEST ELY LLJ WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT H85 AROUND 25-30 KT /2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/
AND PWATS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 1-2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...ITS NOT
UNTIL THE SFC OCEAN SYSTEM PULLS E LATE IN THE DAY THAT THE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE. MANY AREAS MAY RECEIVE SOME OF THE
STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL THEY HAVE NEEDED FOR SOME TIME NOW WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE BANDING
POTENTIAL WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED THANKS TO K-VALUES IN THE LOW
30S...BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP. SO
WILL AT LEAST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
1.0+ INCHES. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE SE MA...WHERE
THE INVERTED TROF HOLDS IN THE LONGEST...BUT IT/S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IT IS OBSERVED INLAND...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN E COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ENHANCES UPSLOPE.

OTHER THAN THE RAINFALL...COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MANY
LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM W TO E THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS RI AND SE MA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH E COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...AND LOW
LVL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG
AND DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS REMAIN
LIKELY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY
* RAIN LIKELY SATURDAY
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
* MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MID
LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF/LOW DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GT LAKES BY SAT. A PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
NEW ENG LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
RAIN WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
AFTER SHORTWAVE EXITS...BROAD TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND GT LAKES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND FRONT APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONT AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM SE NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MOCLDY SKIES DURING
THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW...THEN BECOMING PTSUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH NE FLOW... TEMPS WILL
HOLD IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...
SNE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD LEADING TO
MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BACKING IN
FROM THE OCEAN ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE STORM WHICH MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE OUTER CAPE.  GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING THIS INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CLOUDS TO THE EAST.  WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...COOLEST E MA COAST.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT INTO SNE LATE
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO SNE WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS BULK OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING
SAT...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO SAT EVENING ACROSS E NEW ENG.

SUNDAY...
FRONT IS OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SUNSHINE AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND WILL
LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT
WILL BE. EVEN FASTER GFS IS MAINLY DRY FOR MON SO WE ARE GOING WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH TUE AS
PROGRESSIVE GFS MOVES THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE WHILE MORE AMPLIFIED
ECMWF IS WET.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR IN EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS
IS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT AROUND 23Z AND AFTER
VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP AS WELL IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN.
POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. CIGS
REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS TO LIFT TO MAINLY
MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS CIGS LIFT AND CLOUDS BREAK UP.

FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO WEST SAT
NIGHT.

SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

N-NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
INTO TOMORROW...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS RI/BI
SOUND FOR THESE WINDS...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE WATERS
SURROUNDING CAPE COD FOR LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASING SWELL ALONE...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 7-8FT
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT/S LIKELY THAT THESE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU INTO FRI...EXPECT NE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THU MORNING OVER SE
WATERS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED NE WINDS FRI BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN SCA.  HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU INTO FRI OVER OUTER WATERS.

SAT...SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SAT NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.  VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SUN...WEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KT IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE OVER OUTER WATERS.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KALY 301811
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT...EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE DOESN`T FEATURE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. JUST BATTLING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOWER CLOUDS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH IS WASHING OUT
OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ERODE, ALBEIT SLOWLY. WHERE
THE SUN HAS BEEN OUT, TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AROUND 70F. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTERNOON HIGHS -- BASICALLY A SLIGHT
LOWERING IN THE CLOUDY AREAS (PITTSFIELD & GLENS FALLS -- I`M
CALLING YOU GUYS OUT) AND A SLIGHT INCREASE AT SOME OF THE MORE
SUNNIER LOCATIONS.

ON THE SHOWER CHANCE PERSPECTIVE THE NEXT 6 HOURS, RELIED MORE ON
THE MESO-MODELS -- SUCH AS THE RAP, HRRR AND LOCALLY RUN WRF
MODELS UP HERE AT NWS BURLINGTON. ALL INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS CENTRAL NY UP TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LATEST
ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY (LI VALUE NEAR 0 AND CAPE
200-400 J/KG) IN THOSE AREAS. THUS HAVE SOME 15-25% POPS FOR THE
FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED ACTIVITY.
MESO-MODELS ALSO HINTING AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AND MOVING WESTWARD THIS EVENING INTO
AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AT THIS POINT AM
DISCOUNTING THAT DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT, THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST IT APPEARS (ACCORDING TO 12Z
GUIDANCE SUITE) THAT IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEPER ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RESULT IN THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. WITH AN OVERALL EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE, THIS MEANS SOME OF THAT WILL ADVECT WESTWARD ACROSS
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE THUS
PAINTED IN AN INCREASING TREND OF POPS LATER TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/.  WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS.  THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
(DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS/CEILINGS). SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WITH SUNSET EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND FILLING IN
THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ANTICIPATE MVFR, IF NOT IFR,
CEILINGS TO BE COMMON AFTER 06Z. MAY EVEN AGAIN SEE FOG DEVELOPING
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND
POU. AT THIS POINT JUST MENTIONED VCSH SINCE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL. COULD
SEE PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS ALB AND PSF, BUT KEPT THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT AT THIS TIME SINCE THE CHANCES ARE LOW.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AGAIN, THE IFR CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 14/15Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY..
18Z WED TO 00Z FRI...MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
00Z FRI TO 12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR
12Z SAT ONWARD...MVFR WITH SHOWERS. STRONG/GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...NASH
HYDROLOGY...NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 301811
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT...EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE DOESN`T FEATURE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. JUST BATTLING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOWER CLOUDS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH IS WASHING OUT
OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ERODE, ALBEIT SLOWLY. WHERE
THE SUN HAS BEEN OUT, TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AROUND 70F. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTERNOON HIGHS -- BASICALLY A SLIGHT
LOWERING IN THE CLOUDY AREAS (PITTSFIELD & GLENS FALLS -- I`M
CALLING YOU GUYS OUT) AND A SLIGHT INCREASE AT SOME OF THE MORE
SUNNIER LOCATIONS.

ON THE SHOWER CHANCE PERSPECTIVE THE NEXT 6 HOURS, RELIED MORE ON
THE MESO-MODELS -- SUCH AS THE RAP, HRRR AND LOCALLY RUN WRF
MODELS UP HERE AT NWS BURLINGTON. ALL INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS CENTRAL NY UP TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LATEST
ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY (LI VALUE NEAR 0 AND CAPE
200-400 J/KG) IN THOSE AREAS. THUS HAVE SOME 15-25% POPS FOR THE
FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED ACTIVITY.
MESO-MODELS ALSO HINTING AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AND MOVING WESTWARD THIS EVENING INTO
AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AT THIS POINT AM
DISCOUNTING THAT DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT, THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST IT APPEARS (ACCORDING TO 12Z
GUIDANCE SUITE) THAT IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEPER ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RESULT IN THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. WITH AN OVERALL EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE, THIS MEANS SOME OF THAT WILL ADVECT WESTWARD ACROSS
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE THUS
PAINTED IN AN INCREASING TREND OF POPS LATER TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/.  WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS.  THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
(DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS/CEILINGS). SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WITH SUNSET EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND FILLING IN
THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ANTICIPATE MVFR, IF NOT IFR,
CEILINGS TO BE COMMON AFTER 06Z. MAY EVEN AGAIN SEE FOG DEVELOPING
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND
POU. AT THIS POINT JUST MENTIONED VCSH SINCE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL. COULD
SEE PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS ALB AND PSF, BUT KEPT THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT AT THIS TIME SINCE THE CHANCES ARE LOW.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AGAIN, THE IFR CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 14/15Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY..
18Z WED TO 00Z FRI...MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
00Z FRI TO 12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR
12Z SAT ONWARD...MVFR WITH SHOWERS. STRONG/GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...NASH
HYDROLOGY...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBOX 301742
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
142 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MORE OF THE SAME...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OFF OF THE GULF OF
MAINE AS A WEAK DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD RAINFALL FROM
CENTRAL CT INTO RI AND E MA. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS
LIGHT...GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR SO AN HOUR. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE CASE MOST OF THE EVENING AS WELL...THANKS TO THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING OFFSHORE UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR IN EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS
IS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT AROUND 23Z AND AFTER
VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP AS WELL IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN.
POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. CIGS
REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS TO LIFT TO MAINLY
MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301742
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
142 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...
MORE OF THE SAME...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OFF OF THE GULF OF
MAINE AS A WEAK DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD RAINFALL FROM
CENTRAL CT INTO RI AND E MA. MOST OF THIS RAIN IS
LIGHT...GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR SO AN HOUR. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE CASE MOST OF THE EVENING AS WELL...THANKS TO THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING OFFSHORE UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
MAINLY IFR IN EAST OF AN IJD-ORH-MHT LINE...WITH MVFR WEST. THIS
IS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS THROUGH EVENING...BUT AROUND 23Z AND AFTER
VSBYS MAY BEGIN TO DIP AS WELL IN A MIX OF DRIZZLE/FOG/LIGHT RAIN.
POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC IFR VSBYS...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. CIGS
REMAIN LOW...BUT VSBYS LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS RAIN
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND ALLOWS VSBYS TO LIFT TO MAINLY
MVFR/VFR. WINDS PICK UP NEAR SHORE IN THE EAST...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT....
MUCH OF THE SAME...MAINLY IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN. EXPECT A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM W TO E LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARD RAIN
ENDING...WITH CATEGORIES ONLY REALLY IMPROVING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON THU.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.
ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 301448
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1048 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT...LATE MORNING UPDATE MAINLY TO TWEAK SKY COVER
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE SHALLOW BACKDOOR FRONT
CONTINUE TO FILL IN MUCH OF THE REGION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
ADIRONDACKS, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME HOLES IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
12Z ALBANY SOUNDING CLEARLY SHOWED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP TO
2500FT, WITH AN INVERSION (AND DRIER AIR) ABOVE THAT. BECAUSE THIS
MOISTURE IS SO LOW LEVEL, A FEW OF THE PEAKS IN THE SOUTHERN
GREENS/BERKSHIRES ARE ACTUALLY STICKING UP ABOVE THE CLOUDS. THE
LOW LEVEL NATURE OF THE MOISTURE ALSO MAKES IT HARD FOR VARIOUS
GUIDANCE (EG MODELS) TO REALLY DEPICT IT VERY WELL. THUS WILL GO
WITH THE "WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOW, THAT IS WHERE THEY WILL
PROBABLY BE FOR A FEW HOURS MORE" TYPE OF FORECAST. THE LOWER SUN
ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR ALSO MAKES IT TOUGHER TO "BURN" THESE
CLOUDS OFF.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO MEAN A REDUCTION IN ANY SORT OF AFTERNOON
SHOWER CHANCE. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT, AND PUSHED THE TIMING
A LITTLE BIT LATER (2PM OR SO AND ONWARD). SATELLITE AND RADAR
SHOWS THE SHOWERS (AND ISOLATED T-STORMS) JUST WEST OF BUFFALO AND
INTO OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST. LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OF THE UPPER LOW STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA. IF WE DO GET ANY SHOWERS, THEY WOULD BE RESTRICTED TO
THE AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE,
WHICH FOR THE MOST PART ARE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONLY OTHER ITEM TO MONITOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES. HELD STEADY WITH THE FORECAST OF UPPER 60S TO A FEW
LOWER 70S, HOWEVER THOSE PESKY CLOUDS COULD MEAN THINGS FALL A FEW
DEGREES SHORT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/.  WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS.  THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  LATER THIS MORNING...THESE CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO A MORE MVFR THRESHOLDS AND MAY EVEN BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING /HENCE THE TEMPO GROUPS/.

CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND/OR CONTINUE INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBILITY INTO IFR THRESHOLDS.  THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT THIS
TIME WILL BE KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT THIS MORNING...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND WILL BE
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MANY RIVERS
AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE
AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL THAT SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 301448
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1048 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT...LATE MORNING UPDATE MAINLY TO TWEAK SKY COVER
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE SHALLOW BACKDOOR FRONT
CONTINUE TO FILL IN MUCH OF THE REGION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
ADIRONDACKS, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME HOLES IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
12Z ALBANY SOUNDING CLEARLY SHOWED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP TO
2500FT, WITH AN INVERSION (AND DRIER AIR) ABOVE THAT. BECAUSE THIS
MOISTURE IS SO LOW LEVEL, A FEW OF THE PEAKS IN THE SOUTHERN
GREENS/BERKSHIRES ARE ACTUALLY STICKING UP ABOVE THE CLOUDS. THE
LOW LEVEL NATURE OF THE MOISTURE ALSO MAKES IT HARD FOR VARIOUS
GUIDANCE (EG MODELS) TO REALLY DEPICT IT VERY WELL. THUS WILL GO
WITH THE "WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE NOW, THAT IS WHERE THEY WILL
PROBABLY BE FOR A FEW HOURS MORE" TYPE OF FORECAST. THE LOWER SUN
ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR ALSO MAKES IT TOUGHER TO "BURN" THESE
CLOUDS OFF.

THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO MEAN A REDUCTION IN ANY SORT OF AFTERNOON
SHOWER CHANCE. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT, AND PUSHED THE TIMING
A LITTLE BIT LATER (2PM OR SO AND ONWARD). SATELLITE AND RADAR
SHOWS THE SHOWERS (AND ISOLATED T-STORMS) JUST WEST OF BUFFALO AND
INTO OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST. LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OF THE UPPER LOW STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA. IF WE DO GET ANY SHOWERS, THEY WOULD BE RESTRICTED TO
THE AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY SEEING MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE,
WHICH FOR THE MOST PART ARE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONLY OTHER ITEM TO MONITOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES. HELD STEADY WITH THE FORECAST OF UPPER 60S TO A FEW
LOWER 70S, HOWEVER THOSE PESKY CLOUDS COULD MEAN THINGS FALL A FEW
DEGREES SHORT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/.  WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS.  THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  LATER THIS MORNING...THESE CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO A MORE MVFR THRESHOLDS AND MAY EVEN BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING /HENCE THE TEMPO GROUPS/.

CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND/OR CONTINUE INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBILITY INTO IFR THRESHOLDS.  THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT THIS
TIME WILL BE KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT THIS MORNING...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND WILL BE
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MANY RIVERS
AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE
AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL THAT SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KBOX 301409
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1009 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS SRN CT THROUGH
RI AND SE MA. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FURTHER SE WITH TIME...AS
OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND PULLS MOISTURE TO THE
E. HOWEVER...DO SUSPECT A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST A SHOWERY
THREAT IN THE E THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK INVERTED SHIFTS ONSHORE
AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE SE AND UPPER LVL WEAK CUTOFF CONTINUES TO
PUSH E. THEREFORE...HAVE POPS GENERALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN RISING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND MAYBE DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE DAMP AIRMASS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301409
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1009 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS SRN CT THROUGH
RI AND SE MA. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FURTHER SE WITH TIME...AS
OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND PULLS MOISTURE TO THE
E. HOWEVER...DO SUSPECT A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST A SHOWERY
THREAT IN THE E THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK INVERTED SHIFTS ONSHORE
AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE SE AND UPPER LVL WEAK CUTOFF CONTINUES TO
PUSH E. THEREFORE...HAVE POPS GENERALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN RISING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS...SOME FOG...AND MAYBE DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE DAMP AIRMASS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301047
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS
BUT GENERAL FLOW OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301047
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS
BUT GENERAL FLOW OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301047
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS
BUT GENERAL FLOW OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301047
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK AS
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE OR TWO WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS
BUT GENERAL FLOW OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS... FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT THOUGH...DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO
AN END. A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT MUCH LIKE THE LAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...
FOG...AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS.  MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE BEST LIFT
EXISTS.  OTHERWISE...MORE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND
FOG. OVERCAST SKIES AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ALASKA SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE WESTERN USA/CANADA AND
KICKS THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
BRINGS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN USA.

EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY... UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE
SHOULD SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE EQUIV TO 850 MB
TEMPS OF 2-5C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
FORM ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. CROSS
SECTIONS OF RH SHOW INCREASING CIRRUS-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRY THROUGH
MOST OF THE COLUMN...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD EVENING.
OVERALL...EXPECT A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE EAST FLOW MAY KEEP COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
EAST MASS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SHORTWAVE DRIVING AROUND THE DEEPENING
EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE SUPPORTING JET ENERGY SHOW SIGNS OF LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN NY
AND VERMONT...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO DIRECTLY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE DRY PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...THESE PATTERNS TEND TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EVEN
WHEN FORECAST DATA SAYS OTHERWISE. AND A DAY 5 FORECAST IS RATHER
FAR OUT TO SHOW GREAT CERTAINTY. WE WILL MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...BUT OUR
ACTUAL CONFIDENCE IS 15-20 PERCENT LOWER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL
MEAN COOLER TEMPS. TEMPERATURES HERE IN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE AIR OUR
WAY...GENERATING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER...PROBABLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI WHERE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IN
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...CIGS/VSBYS AT MVFR/IFR IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.  SOUTH WINDS LEAD THE COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED.

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  INCREASED WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A GENERAL LOW BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. SCA CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  ALSO ISSUED SCA FOR
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN
SHIFT WEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET LINGER ON THE
EXPOSED WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON AT LEAST THE EXPOSED WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAY EXPERIENCE A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING MIDWEEK BUT
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KALY 301029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A SHALLOW BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE REGION...EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THIS FRONT...SEEN BY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND WIGGLE
IN THE PRESSURE FIELD...HAS ALLOWED SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MORE MOIST
AIR TO SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT MOST AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE SEEING
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. IN AREAS WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN ENOUGH BREAKS
OR THE CLOUDS WERE THIN ENOUGH...SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS WELL.

IN ADDITION...THE BROAD S-SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE
MORNING GOES ON...THE BULK OF THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO SHIFT
TO EAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL START MOSTLY
CLOUDY DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...SOME BREAKS IN THESE LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL BE IN PLACE BY
LATER IN THE MORNING.

ANY BREAKS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CLOUDS WILL START TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVENTUALLY...THIS APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND WHATEVER
REMAINS OF THE LINGERING BACKDOOR BOUNDARY...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK
LARGE SCALE FORCING...SHOWERS WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE AND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. WILL NOT
INCLUDE THUNDER AT THIS TIME...AS THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 10-11 DEGREES C...FREQUENT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL HEATING TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
MANY VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON TERRAIN AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE DECAYING BACKDOOR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/.  WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS.  THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  LATER THIS MORNING...THESE CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO A MORE MVFR THRESHOLDS AND MAY EVEN BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING /HENCE THE TEMPO GROUPS/.

CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND/OR CONTINUE INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBILITY INTO IFR THRESHOLDS.  THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT THIS
TIME WILL BE KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT THIS MORNING...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER MORNING DEW/PATCHY FOG...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TODAY WITH LIGHT SE WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AROUND...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
EAST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND WILL BE
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MANY RIVERS
AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE
AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL THAT SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 301029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A SHALLOW BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE REGION...EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THIS FRONT...SEEN BY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND WIGGLE
IN THE PRESSURE FIELD...HAS ALLOWED SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MORE MOIST
AIR TO SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT MOST AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE SEEING
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. IN AREAS WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN ENOUGH BREAKS
OR THE CLOUDS WERE THIN ENOUGH...SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS WELL.

IN ADDITION...THE BROAD S-SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE
MORNING GOES ON...THE BULK OF THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO SHIFT
TO EAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL START MOSTLY
CLOUDY DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...SOME BREAKS IN THESE LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL BE IN PLACE BY
LATER IN THE MORNING.

ANY BREAKS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CLOUDS WILL START TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVENTUALLY...THIS APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND WHATEVER
REMAINS OF THE LINGERING BACKDOOR BOUNDARY...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK
LARGE SCALE FORCING...SHOWERS WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE AND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. WILL NOT
INCLUDE THUNDER AT THIS TIME...AS THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 10-11 DEGREES C...FREQUENT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL HEATING TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
MANY VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON TERRAIN AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE DECAYING BACKDOOR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/.  WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS.  THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  LATER THIS MORNING...THESE CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO A MORE MVFR THRESHOLDS AND MAY EVEN BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING /HENCE THE TEMPO GROUPS/.

CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND/OR CONTINUE INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBILITY INTO IFR THRESHOLDS.  THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT THIS
TIME WILL BE KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT THIS MORNING...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER MORNING DEW/PATCHY FOG...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TODAY WITH LIGHT SE WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AROUND...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
EAST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND WILL BE
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MANY RIVERS
AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE
AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL THAT SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 301029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A SHALLOW BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE REGION...EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THIS FRONT...SEEN BY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND WIGGLE
IN THE PRESSURE FIELD...HAS ALLOWED SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MORE MOIST
AIR TO SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT MOST AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE SEEING
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. IN AREAS WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN ENOUGH BREAKS
OR THE CLOUDS WERE THIN ENOUGH...SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS WELL.

IN ADDITION...THE BROAD S-SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE
MORNING GOES ON...THE BULK OF THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO SHIFT
TO EAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL START MOSTLY
CLOUDY DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...SOME BREAKS IN THESE LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL BE IN PLACE BY
LATER IN THE MORNING.

ANY BREAKS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CLOUDS WILL START TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVENTUALLY...THIS APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND WHATEVER
REMAINS OF THE LINGERING BACKDOOR BOUNDARY...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK
LARGE SCALE FORCING...SHOWERS WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE AND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. WILL NOT
INCLUDE THUNDER AT THIS TIME...AS THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 10-11 DEGREES C...FREQUENT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL HEATING TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
MANY VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON TERRAIN AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE DECAYING BACKDOOR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/.  WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS.  THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  LATER THIS MORNING...THESE CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO A MORE MVFR THRESHOLDS AND MAY EVEN BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING /HENCE THE TEMPO GROUPS/.

CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND/OR CONTINUE INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBILITY INTO IFR THRESHOLDS.  THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT THIS
TIME WILL BE KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT THIS MORNING...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER MORNING DEW/PATCHY FOG...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TODAY WITH LIGHT SE WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AROUND...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
EAST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND WILL BE
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MANY RIVERS
AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE
AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL THAT SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 301029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EDT...A SHALLOW BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE REGION...EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THIS FRONT...SEEN BY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND WIGGLE
IN THE PRESSURE FIELD...HAS ALLOWED SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MORE MOIST
AIR TO SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT MOST AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE SEEING
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. IN AREAS WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN ENOUGH BREAKS
OR THE CLOUDS WERE THIN ENOUGH...SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS WELL.

IN ADDITION...THE BROAD S-SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE
MORNING GOES ON...THE BULK OF THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO SHIFT
TO EAST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL START MOSTLY
CLOUDY DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...SOME BREAKS IN THESE LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL BE IN PLACE BY
LATER IN THE MORNING.

ANY BREAKS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CLOUDS WILL START TO FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVENTUALLY...THIS APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND WHATEVER
REMAINS OF THE LINGERING BACKDOOR BOUNDARY...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK
LARGE SCALE FORCING...SHOWERS WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE AND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. WILL NOT
INCLUDE THUNDER AT THIS TIME...AS THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 10-11 DEGREES C...FREQUENT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL HEATING TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
MANY VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON TERRAIN AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE DECAYING BACKDOOR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  PER
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN `D0` PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY
DRY/.  WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  PER
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE DACKS.  THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  LATER THIS MORNING...THESE CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO A MORE MVFR THRESHOLDS AND MAY EVEN BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING /HENCE THE TEMPO GROUPS/.

CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND/OR CONTINUE INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBILITY INTO IFR THRESHOLDS.  THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT THIS
TIME WILL BE KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT THIS MORNING...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER MORNING DEW/PATCHY FOG...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TODAY WITH LIGHT SE WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA.

RH VALUES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AROUND...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
EAST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AND WILL BE
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MANY RIVERS
AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE
AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL THAT SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







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